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Major League Baseball rewards its best offensive players and its top pitchers with Player of the Month Awards. But it does not salute a Defensive Player of the Month with the same level of reverence.

We’re here to fill that void, with the help of the folks from Baseball Info Solutions (BIS). BIS has a team of video trackers who watch every play of every game, charting where balls are hit, which ones are turned into outs and which are not, and categorizing plays into approximately 30 groups of Good Fielding Plays and 50 groups of Defensive Misplays.

BIS data is also used in the computation of a stat called Defensive Runs Saved, which measures value relative to others at the same position. How Runs Saved are calculated is explained in the chart on the right.

We came up with a list of nominees using this data and our Web Gem tracking (which allows us to measure "Great Fielding Plays"), then had a 10-person panel cast their votes. The panel came from our Stats & Information crew, writers Dave Schoenfield and Jayson Stark and ESPN baseball analyst Chris Singleton.

Our winner for April is an unlikely selection in that he’s not the first person that comes to mind when you think of defensive standouts -- Los Angeles Dodgers utilityman Jerry Hairston Jr.

Hairston was able to make the good play and the great play. He finished April tied with Ryan Zimmerman for the major league lead with four Web Gems (including the No. 1 Gem on consecutive nights). He was credited with one Defensive Run Saved at second base, one at third base and two in left field.

Hairston finished April with a Good Play/Misplay tally of 11 to 1 in only 15 games in his first month with the Dodgers.

His highlight-reel play came on April 19 against the Milwaukee Brewers while playing third base, when he robbed Alex Gonzalez of the game-tying hit in the eighth inning with a diving stop and throw from his knees on a groundball down the line.

The next day, he missed on a similar diving attempt against Jose Altuve of the Astros, but then sprinted into foul territory and threw a strike to second base to nail Altuve's attempt at an extra-base hit.

Hairston got six of our 10 first-place votes, and even someone who voted him second-best was quite impressed. "No matter where you put him on the field, he posseses the ability to make a dynamic play," Singleton said. "His value as a utility player is as high as anyone on the defensive side."

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly agreed, saying, "Jerry's been great from the standpoint of wherever we put him, he's made some unbelievable plays."

Alex Gordon, Royals
Though Gordon didn’t hit at the level he did in 2011, his advanced defensive stats were of Gold Glove caliber, and that earned him runner-up status for April.

Gordon had seven Defensive Runs Saved in left field for April, and finished with a 9 to 1 tally in Good Plays/Misplays, including a home run robbery on Danny Valencia.

Gordon’s rating was high partly because of the component that measures the deterrent value of one’s throwing arm. There were 18 situations in which Gordon fielded a ball, and a baserunner had a chance to advance an extra base (score on a sacrifice fly, go first to third on a single, etc). He only had one assist, but it was a nifty one, nailing Albert Pujols at the plate. But Gordon only allowed the runner to advance three times, thus netting a deterrent rate worth two runs.

"You can never truly appreciate with the naked eye just how well Gordon takes routes to the ball on base hits," Singleton said. "It gets overlooked, but it’s huge when you’re an outfielder and can shut the running game down like a catcher does."

Freddy Galvis, Phillies
If there was an award for Defensive Rookie of the Month, Galvis would edge out Kirk Nieuwenhuis of the Mets for top honors. He finished with a Good Play Misplay tally of 14 to 3 and tallied three Defensive Runs Saved. He won No. 1 Web Gem honors twice, good enough to finish third in our voting.

Jamey Carroll, Twins
Carroll finished with two Defensive Runs Saved, but was impressive in the way in which he made plays. His 16 Good Fielding Plays were the most among shortstops. He made only two Misplays all month, and his 8 to 1 ratio was among the best for infielders.

Albert Pujols, Angels
Though Pujols struggled offensively, he didn’t let his power outage impact his defense.

Pujols tied with Adrian Gonzalez for the most Defensive Runs Saved among first basemen with three, and had a Good Play/Misplay ratio of 14 to 2. Pujols was rewarded both for his ability to handle difficult throws (for which he was credited with nine Good Fielding Plays), and his ability to turn batted balls into outs. One of the few bright spots for the Angels in April was that they allowed a .197 batting average on groundballs, fourth-best in the American League, behind the Indians, Athletics and Blue Jays.

Also considered: Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals 3B), Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks 1B), Josh Hamilton (Rangers OF), Aaron Hill (Diamondbacks 2B), and Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox 2B).

For his next act, I half expect Justin Verlander to string a tightrope over the Detroit River and walk across it while carrying Prince Fielder on his back or maybe careen down Niagara Falls in a wooden barrel. Or maybe just eat fire.

That's certainly what comes out of his hand when he pitches and it's certainly hard to deny that Verlander is the greatest pitching show on earth on right now, a get-your-money's-worth entertainment package complete with suspenseful, edge-of-your-seat dramatic finishes.

On Monday night in Kansas City, Verlander threw another dominating eight innings, leading 3-1 with a comfortable five-hitter in his back pocket. He had retired 12 of the 13 previous hitters and appeared ready to finish off his first victory of the year.

Before we get to the exciting conclusion, remember his first two starts. On Opening Day, Verlander threw eight shutout innings against Boston only to see Jose Valverde blow the lead in the ninth when Jim Leyland removed Verlander after 104 pitches. Last week against Tampa Bay, he took another 2-0 lead into the ninth, cruising along on 82 pitches. But he gave up three singles and a walk, the Rays tied the game, Leyland took him out after 105 pitches and Valverde gave up a two-run, go-ahead single.

Verlander blamed himself for that loss. After pitching comfortably in the low- to mid-90s most of the game, with terrific movement on his pitches, he let loose on his famous fastball in the ninth. In doing so, however, his fastball flattened out. Evan Longoria's game-tying hit came on a 100-mph heater that he bounced into left field.

"Once a couple guys got on, really the first time I've cranked it up like that -- and lost a little bit of my consistency that I'd had all day," Verlander said after the loss. "It's inexcusable. This loss rests solely on my shoulders today."

With that game in mind, that's why it was surprising the same thing happened again. Verlander cranked up the fastball and the Royals started reaching base. Billy Butler singled. With two outs, Verlander fell behind Humberto Quintero 3-0 and then Quintero lined a 3-1, 98-mph fastball off the glove of Prince Fielder for an RBI single. Verlander walked Mitch Maier on five pitches. Leyland visited the mound.

Verlander repeated Leyland's message to him after the game: "You're going to get me fired."

Verlander then drilled Alcides Escobar on a 98-mph fastball that rode in and hit Escobar's back elbow, somehow not shattering it into 98 bone fragments. Fired? How about a heart attack. Leyland may have to give up smoking on days Verlander pitches.

That set the stage for the final act. Verlander versus Alex Gordon, Kansas City's left fielder who hit .303 a season ago but entered the at-bat hitting .132. Verlander had thrown 125 pitches. Valverde? Nowhere to be seen after throwing 21 pitches on Sunday. This would be Verlander's game. His shoulders.

Pitch No. 127: 100 mph, fouled back.

Pitch No. 128: 100 mph, up high.

Pitch No. 129: 100 mph, inside.

Pitch No. 130: An 88-mph changeup that tailed back across the inside corner for a strike, a pitch that made grown men cry and children recoil in horror. At least if they were rooting for the Royals.

Pitch No. 131: 100 mph, inside corner or probably a little inside, Gordon can't pull the trigger, home-plate ump Wally Bell rings him up.

Exhale. Or throw up, depending on your team of choice. The 131 pitches were the second-highest total of Verlander's career. His four hardest pitches of the game all came against the final batter.

Look, it was a tough pitch for Gordon to take. It was interesting to see two different tweets from Royals fans -- Craig Brown, who writes our Royals Authority blog; and Rany Jazayerli, who writes the Rany on the Royals blog.

Can't blame Gordon on that SO looking. Sometimes a pitch is in a spot where the hitter can't pull the trigger. It happens.

— Craig Brown (@royalsauthority) April 17, 2012

It's just one at-bat-an incredibly crucial at-bat-but that was the old Gordon. Unable to pull the trigger on a borderline 2-strike pitch.

— Rany Jazayerli (@jazayerli) April 17, 2012

Which side are you on? There's the old axiom of protecting the plate with two strikes, although I'm not sure that axiom was created with 100-mph fastballs in mind. Bell's strike zone had been shaky all night, however, something Gordon should have been aware of.

But Gordon is hardly the first batter to fail against Verlander with two strikes. As Katie Sharp of ESPN Stats & Information pointed out, hitters are .073 (3-for-41) against Verlander this season with two strikes. A year ago they hit .134 with two strikes in 566 plate appearances.

So I guess I'm willing to cut Gordon some slack on this one. I'm also willing to watch Verlander's next start: Saturday afternoon against the Rangers. I believe he'll provide the fire once again.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Some excellent work from colleagues Tristan Cockcroft and AJ Mass. These pieces are under the fantasy template but apply to "real" baseball as well.

• Texas Rangers: A closer look at what to expect from Neftali Feliz as he moves from the closer role to the starting rotation.
• Boston Red Sox: Similarly, Daniel Bard will move from the bullpen to the rotation for the Red Sox.
• Kansas City Royals: Can Alex Gordon match his 2011 campaign?
• San Diego Padres: Will this be a breakout season for Cameron Maybin?

You can follow the entire "30 Questions" series here.

Alex Gordon had a breakout season in 2011, the kind that had been expected of him since his recall from the minor leagues. He starred for the Kansas City Royals both at bat (.303 BA, 23 HR, 87 RBIs) and in the field (winning a Gold Glove, largely because of his 20 outfield assists).

The biggest jump Gordon made was his performance against left-handed pitching. Gordon entered 2011 as a .215 career hitter against southpaws, but hit a solid .278 with 19 extra-base hits, including eight home runs.

One of Gordon’s primary weaknesses in dealing with lefties was how he handled soft stuff (curves, sliders, changeups) away. He eliminated that as an issue in 2011 in a big way.

Gordon was able to nearly double the rate at which he made contact on swings against those pitches, and the results increased exponentially, as noted in the chart on the right.

There aren’t many left-handed hitters who can hit that type of pitch from a left-handed pitcher. Gordon’s new AL Central-mate, Prince Fielder, struggles with it. So did Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Curtis Granderson last season, among others.

Eliminating that issue added a significant number of hits to Gordon’s ledger and made him a much more viable threat at the plate.

But is that sort of success sustainable? Gordon’s batting average of balls on play against lefties took a big jump, even though his rate of hitting the ball hard didn’t.

You tell us if you think Gordon is legit. Share your thoughts in the comments section.

Some more good stuff from around the SweetSpot network ...

• Ben Duronio examines Craig Kimbrel's breaking ball. Some label the pitch a slider or slurve, but Kimbrel refers to it as a curveball. Here's all that matters: It's a devastating pitch.
• Value Over Replacement Grit has an in-depth look at the "Three True Outcomes" concept (a batter either hitting a home run, drawing a walk or striking out) and applies it to entire teams. Which teams in history have best emulated a TTO attitude?
• Chip Buck of Fire Brand compares the AL East rotations.
• Alex Gordon may be close to signing a one-year deal with the Royals. Craig Brown of Royals Authority has a reaction and breaks down what a potential long-term deal could look like.
• Camden Depot's Jon Shepherd examines what Manny Ramirez could potentially bring if the Orioles sign him.
• Marlins reliever Steve Cishek flew under the radar as a rookie but posted impressive numbers. Jonathan Mitchell at Marlins Daily asks whether Cishek should be considered for a high-leverage role in the Marlins' bullpen.
• At Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman reviews the Johan Santana trade between the Mets and Twins. With that article in mind, Bill Baer looks back the deals that brought the Phillies Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.
• Considering what the Brewers traded to get Zack Greinke -- compared to what the Reds gave up for Mat Latos and the Cubs to acquire Matt Garza -- that deal is looking like a steal for Milwaukee, writes Jack Moore.
• Joey Matschulat opines on Elvis Andrus' three-year extension with the Rangers.
• Chris Quick looks at some of the PECOTA projections for the Giants. (PECOTA is the projection system used by Baseball Prospectus.) What about new outfielder Melky Cabrera? Well ... let's just say the Giants may still struggle to score runs.
• Yes, Cubs fans, you have reasons to be optimistic!
• For my fellow Mariners fans, Brendan Gawlowski has a good look at the Mariners' non-roster invites.

And a few more links from elsewhere ...

• John Sickels of Minor League Ball with a fun look at the top 30 position players in baseball and how they were viewed as prospects. Here does the same thing for the top 25 pitchers.
• ESPNBoston kicks off its "10 Question in 10 Days" series heading into spring training with Gordon Edes' look at Bobby Valentine.
• ESPNNewYork has a similar series with the Yankees and Andrew Marchand writes that Johnny Damon is the right fit for the Yankees' DH slot.
• Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas is going position-by-position with the Rangers and looks at Yu Darvish.
• Mark Saxon says that Vernon Wells -- and not Mike Trout -- will be the Angels' left fielder.
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs lists his top 10 moves of the offseason ... and his 10 worst.
• Mentioned briefly above, Baseball Prospectus has reintroduced PECOTA, its player projection system. Colin Wyers has the details here.
• George Brett's company is being sued. Wait ... you mean those necklaces don't actually improve athletic performance?

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

Justin Verlander is hoping to become the first pitcher to win the MVP Award since Dennis Eckersley in 1992, and the first starting pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986. Jacoby Ellsbury is hoping to win the MVP Award despite the late-season collapse of the Red Sox (hey, don’t blame him!). Jose Bautista is hoping his big offensive numbers carry the day even though his team finished 81-81. Curtis Granderson is hoping to win despite a September slump that would leave his .262 batting average as the lowest ever for an MVP hitter. And then there’s Miguel Cabrera, who put up monster numbers in the shadow of his teammate.

Who will win? Nobody knows. Despite a storyline that seemed to focus on him, will a historical bias against pitchers hurt Verlander? There is also a strong historical bias in favor of players on playoff teams, which will help Verlander and Granderson, but work against Ellsbury and Bautista. Will Ellsbury lose some votes to teammates Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia, who also had strong seasons? Here’s how the SweetSpot bloggers voted (14 points for first, nine for second, eight for third, etc.)

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: 296 points (15 first-place votes)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: 256 points (8)
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 177 points
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 131 points (1)
Curtis Granderson, Yankees: 114 points (1)
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 44 points
Ian Kinsler, Rangers: 26 points
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox: 23 points
Alex Gordon, Royals: 12 points
Evan Longoria, Rays: 8 points
CC Sabathia: 7 points
Michael Young, Rangers: 6 points

* * * *

Let’s do the center fielders first, since that’s the easiest comparison. Granderson starts with an advantage of nine more home runs (41 to 32), five more triples (10 to 5), three more hit-by-pitches (12 to 9) and 33 more walks (85 to 52). That’s 87 more bases. But Ellsbury had 20 more doubles (46 to 26), 53 more singles (129 to 76) and four fewer double plays hit into (12 to 8). That’s plus-97 bases for Ellsbury. Ellsbury stole 39 bases (caught stealing 15 times) and Granderson stole 25 bases (10 caught stealing), a minor edge for Ellsbury. Granderson used up 463 outs, Ellsbury 479. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference.com estimates that Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 runs per 27 outs; Granderson created 121 runs, or 7.0 runs per 27 outs. Granderson played in a slightly higher run-scoring environment.

Some more numbers: Ellsbury hit .366/.420/.691 with runners in scoring position, Granderson hit .242/.303/.516. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Ellsbury hit .400, Granderson hit .208. When the score was tied, Ellsbury had a .900 OPS, Granderson .820. No matter how you slice things, I can’t come up with a way that proves Granderson had the better year at the plate. And the deeper you dig, the more you uncover that Ellsbury played his best in clutch situations and close games. Yankees fans may accuse me of bias or being a Red Sox fan, but such is not that case. Ellsbury was the more productive offensive player.

Then you get to the defense. By all accounts, Ellsbury played a better center field in 2011. I’m not sure he deserved his Gold Glove (Austin Jackson and Peter Bourjos were superb), but the defensive metrics also say he was far superior to Granderson.

Look, both were dynamic players, power-speed combinations at an important defensive position. But I think it’s clear that Ellsbury had the superior season. The one caveat in regard to MVP voting, of course, is that Granderson’s team made the playoffs and Ellsbury’s did not. But don’t blame Ellsbury for Boston’s collapse -- he hit .358 with eight home runs in September. But some voters will hold the collapse against him; to me, it's failed logic to say that Ellsbury is less of an MVP candidate because Jonathan Papelbon couldn’t close out a lead on the final night of the season and Dan Johnson hit a home run off Cory Wade.

* * * *

OK, Ellsbury versus Jose Bautista is a little tougher. Bautista starts off with 11 more home runs (43 to 32) and 80 more walks (132 to 52). He had an awesome year at the plate. But Ellsbury had three more triples (5 to 2), 22 more doubles (46 to 24), 43 more singles (129 to 86), three more hit-by-pitches (9 to 6). Both players grounded into eight double plays. Bautista had 25 more bases, although Ellsbury closes that gap with a 39-to-9 edge in stolen bases. The big difference is Ellsbury used up 479 outs and Bautista 375. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference estimates that Bautista created 149 runs, or 10.7 per 27 outs; Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 per 27 outs. Both guys played in similar run-scoring environments. Given Ellsbury’s production over the same number of outs as Bautista had, he would have created 108 runs, 41 fewer than Bautista.

But Ellsbury did have the advantage of playing nine more games and, since he hit leadoff, receiving more plate appearances (and thus more chances to affect the game). And then we have to factor in defense: Ellsbury is a good center fielder (+6 runs better than average according to Defensive Runs Saved, +15.6 runs by Ultimate Zone Rating), while Bautista rates as a below-average right fielder in both systems (-1 and -8.6), although he did rate well at third base in his limited time there (+6 and +3.8).

If you remember, Bautista was on fire early on, hitting .363 with 20 home runs through May. He slowed down after that, hitting .257 with 12 home runs in 65 games after the All-Star break. His walk rate actually remained consistent throughout the year, so it doesn’t appear that he started chasing pitches, but maybe frustration did set in from not getting a lot of pitches to hit. And for those who think he was part of the sign-stealing allegations that came out, his home/road splits were actually nearly identical: 1.063 OPS at home, 1.047 on the road. Breaking down some of Bautista’s other numbers, one jumps out at me: He hit .307/.523/.760 in “close and late” situations.

It was an impressive season, MVP-worthy.

If you go by WAR (Wins Above Replacement), it’s essentially a dead heat: If we average FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR, Bautista is at 8.4, Ellsbury 8.3.

But I give the edge to Ellsbury. The season-long excellence matters, but so does his combination of playing center field, hitting leadoff and putting up awesome numbers at the plate. He created runs and prevented runs, while playing an important up-the-middle position. If you watched the Red Sox regularly, he was clearly the best player on the team, the dynamo at the top of the order.

* * * *

Obviously, I’m more of a numbers guy. But even I admit: Sometimes we get too caught up in the numbers. In 10 years, in 25 years, when we think of the 2011 season, what will we remember most other than the dramatic World Series and the greatest final day in baseball history? I think we’ll remember Verlander, the year he turned from flamethrower to pitcher, the year he made The Leap, when we began thinking of him as a guy with Hall of Fame potential, a pitcher who could win 300 games and join that inner circle of greatness. Now, maybe all that won’t happen, but that doesn’t mean the 2011 regular season didn’t belong to Justin Verlander. I think if you ask managers and general managers around baseball if they could have one player from the 2011 season, the majority would say Verlander.

Which is why, I admit, I’m conflicted to say that I think Jacoby Ellsbury deserves the 2011 American League MVP Award.

My unofficial ballot:

1. Ellsbury
2. Verlander
3. Bautista
4. Cabrera
5. Granderson
6. Pedroia
7. Robinson Cano
8. Gonzalez
9. Alex Avila
10. Longoria

As of Friday morning, Royals outfielder Alex Gordon was hitting .298/.372/.493 with 20 home runs, 93 runs scored, 78 RBI and 16 stolen bases. According to both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, Gordon has been worth between five or six wins above replacement (WAR) so far this season.

He was supposed to be this type of player back in 2007 or at least 2008. It may have taken longer than expected, but Alex Gordon is having a prodigious yet nevertheless somewhat underrated breakout season.

Before the 2007 season, Baseball America ranked Gordon as the second-best prospect in baseball. Only one year removed from being the second overall pick in the 2005 draft and fresh off of a .325/.427/.588 season while hitting 29 home runs and stealing 22 bases at Double-A Wichita, expectations were clearly sky-high.

Gordon failed to live up to Rookie of the Year predictions, but his sophomore season showed some promise as he hit .260/.351/.432 in 571 plate appearances. Unfortunately, in April of 2009, Gordon was forced to go under the knife due to a hip injury, which would end up costing him 79 games that year and stopped any of the momentum created from his 2008 season. The 2010 season didn't start out any better. Gordon suffered a fractured right thumb late in spring training and started the year on a minor league rehab assignment. His return to the Royals lasted only 12 games before he was optioned to Triple-A, where he would remain until late July.

One of Gordon's biggest issues had been his struggles against left-handed pitching. That particular area of his game has vastly improved in 2011. Eight of Gordon's 20 home runs this season have some against southpaws.

Perhaps one key to Gordon's 2011 success is an adjustment he has made in his batting stance and swing while working with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer in the offseason. You can see the difference in his stance in these two videos from MLB.com.

“We did a major overhaul with his upper body and swing path,” Seitzer says. “It was basically a month of drills. We wanted him to pretty much forget what the old swing felt like, ingrain a whole new path, lose tension in the upper body, stay short through the ball."
“I was kind of an all-effort guy,” Gordon says. “I’m kind of gearing back a little bit, trying to swing nice and easy, nice and free, take what pitchers give me.” -- FoxSports.com

Whether it was one big change or a combination of a few different changes -- on top of the fact that he was able to start the year healthy -- one thing's for sure: Gordon is finally channeling the immense talent that made him one of the best prospects in baseball back in 2006 and 2007.

It seems that baseball fans are aware of Gordon's tremendous season, but sometimes it still feels like he has been somewhat overlooked when discussions or arguments erupt over who the best players in baseball are.

Did you know that Gordon ranks seventh in fWAR in the American League, just slightly behind Adrian Gonzalez, who people are touting for AL MVP? Want more awesome numbers? Gordon currently has the 21st-highest wOBA in baseball (minimum 500 plate appearances), the fifth-best wOBA of any left fielder in baseball (minimum 450 plate appearances) and the second most fWAR of any left fielder in all of baseball.

How about some traditional stats? Gordon ranks ninth among American League outfielders in home runs, fourth in runs scored, 10th in RBIs, fourth in AVG, fourth in OBP and eighth in SLG (minimum of 400 plate appearances).

Gordon hasn't just been one of the best players on the Royals this season, or even one of the best players in the American League. He has been one of the best players in baseball.

It's been a rather bumpy road for Alex Gordon to get where he is today, yet he's still only 27-years old. As he battled through slumps, injuries and the weight of being labeled "The next George Brett," he never stopped trying to get better. All of that hard work and perseverance has finally paid off. It's time to give the man the attention and credit he deserves.

Charlie Saponara writes for Red Sox SweetSpot network blog, "Fire Brand of the AL." You can find all of his writing adventures by following on Twitter.

From the strange but true category: Based on FanGraphs' WAR (wins above replacement), the Kansas City Royals have the second-best outfield in the American League.

Using the top three rated outfielders for each club, here are the top five clubs in the AL:

1. Yankees (Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner, Nick Swisher): 7.8 WAR.
2. Royals (Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Francoeur): 5.6 WAR.
3. Blue Jays (Jose Bautista, Corey Patterson, Juan Rivera: 5.4 WAR.
4. Twins (Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel): 5.2 WAR.
5. Indians (Michael Brantley, Shin-Soo Choo, Grady Sizemore): 3.9 WAR.

In the National League, the Diamondbacks (Justin Upton, Chris Young, Gerardo Parra) rate at 7.2 WAR, the Cardinals (Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus) at 6.8 and the Pirates (Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones and Jose Tabata) at 6.2.

Gordon is having a solid year with that bat and glove. Cabrera and Francoeur don't get on base the way you'd like, but Cabrera's overall is pretty good for a center fielder and Francoeur rates very well with the glove.

The worst outfield? The Mariners have collectively been below replacement level.

One of the great storylines of the 2011 season has been the comeback stories across both leagues. Often called "reclamation projects" when they are signed, these comeback players can make a general manager look brilliant if they succeed.

Comeback players can return to success for myriad reasons, including but not limited to: finally getting healthy; mechanical adjustments; a change of scenery; a weightlifting or conditioning program; getting a second chance from off-field problems; taking a year off and wanting to come back; or even improvements in their personal life like a marriage or birth of a child.

When a general manager signs a player with the intent of him becoming a Comeback Player of the Year candidate, he normally has a reason behind it. Here are some of those guys, plus a couple who didn't change organizations.

1. Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals

Berkman had spent his entire career with the Astros, averaging 30 home runs, 110 RBIs and a .410 on-base percentage over a 12-year career as one of baseball’s top OPS guys. However, at 34 years old, he saw it all crumbling down last season, in which he hit just .245 with 13 HRs and 49 RBIs before being traded to the Yankees. Once he arrived with the Yankees it got worse, as he finished the year batting .255 with just one home run in 106 at-bats. His lower half looked old. His legs were slow. His bat was slow. His torque in the middle wasn't the same. He looked finished. He was embarrassed. He also did something about it. Ed Wade, his former GM in Houston, told me this past winter that he ran into Berkman in the Houston area and he had lost 15-20 pounds and looked to be in great shape. He was excited about being able to return to right field with the Cardinals -- a position he hadn’t played in over four years. His hard work in the offseason has paid off early this season, as he’s hitting .390 with nine HRs and 27 RBIs. In the case of Berkman, the reasons he has been able to make a successful comeback can probably be attributed to conditioning, weight training, change of scenery and the wake-up call that he appeared not only in decline but possibly near the end of his career. Whatever the reason, he’s back, and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is no longer answering questions about why he signed Berkman to a one-year, $8 million deal. By the way, Berkman also has looked impressive in the field, getting good jumps on balls and covering enough ground to be called close to an average defender.

2. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals

The Royals have taken a lot of flak for drafting Gordon ahead of such players as Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki and Jay Bruce, and rightfully so. However, Gordon was always a talented player and most clubs had him in the top five that year. Gordon has had to overcome injuries, positional changes (3B, 1B and now finally a home in LF) and mechanical changes. More importantly, he had to overcome being rushed to the major leagues before he was ready. He really struggled with major league pitching, leaving a lot of evaluators scratching their heads. However, he made a mechanical change this spring that allowed his hands to start further back and higher, giving him the ability to let the ball travel further, and that has put him back on the map as one of the top, young, potential left-handed power hitters in the game. Gordon presently has an OPS of .900 with 20 RBIs.

3. Aaron Harang, San Diego Padres

Harang won 16 games for the Cincinnati Reds in 2006 and 2007 and was considered the ace of the staff. However, after three years of averaging six wins per season, the Reds let him go via free agency at the end of last season. Jed Hoyer, the GM of Padres, took a chance on Harang on the recommendation of pitching coach Darren Balsley, and it has paid off. Harang told me that Balsley changed his leg kick back to where it was in '06 and '07 and changed the timing of his hands splitting. The results added velocity, a crisper breaking ball, a much-improved WHIP and two wins away from Petco Park.

4. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs

Last summer, Cubs GM and then-manager Lou Piniella told me Soriano will never be the player he was in Washington. Because of bad knees, Soriano hasn’t hit 30 home runs since 2007, when he hit 33 in his first year with the Cubs. But 2011 is a new season, and Soriano, after spending the winter working on his legs, knees and lower half, is back. He has an NL-leading 11 home runs and is presently on pace to hit more than the 46 home runs he hit for me in Washington back in 2006. Amazing what happens when a talented player gets healthy again. Another good comeback story.

5. Bartolo Colon, New York Yankees

This one’s the hardest one for me to believe. Colon is throwing a 92-96 mph fastball, painting the corners and keeping it down or elevating when needed with a good breaking ball. This can’t be happening, can it? I feel like Michael J. Fox is going to soon tell me we are back to the past. Colon won 21 games in 2005 for the Angels. He won a total of 14 games over the next four years ... four years! The great Branch Rickey once said, "If you see it once, you can see it again." Colon is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA but giving the Yankees important innings in the rotation. The key will be how long can he maintain this; how long can he maintain velocity; how long can he maintain command? A phenomenal story.

6. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians

Hafner’s shoulders have been so bad that he hasn't been able to do any offseason weightlifting the past few years. However, this offseason was different. With better health on his side, Hafner worked hard in building up strength and flexibility. The result has been outstanding, as his bat speed is back and so is the thump in his bat. His sweet spot contact is loud again, and his face is smiling. And it should be after starting this season with a .404 OBP, including four home runs. Hafner is presently nursing a sore right foot but fortunately is not heading to the disabled list, according to Indians manager Manny Acta.

7. Russell Martin, New York Yankees

I watched Martin closely the last two years with the Dodgers. He showed no power in games and no power in BP, and questions about the health of his hip and knees never ceased. When the Dodgers decided to non-tender Martin, it wasn’t met with surprise, but rather with understanding. Remember, he hit five home runs in 2010 and seven in 2009. When Yankees GM Brian Cashman signed Martin, he took a lot of criticism. With Jorge Posada, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine, the signing didn’t appear to make sense. However, Cashman is now looking brilliant. Martin already has six home runs and 20 RBIs to go with a .939 OPS and has done an admirable job of calling a game and stopping the running from a defensive standpoint. He is clearly one of the better free-agent bargains of 2011, and the Red Sox and Dodgers should be kicking themselves for not pursuing him more aggressively. This comeback story has as much to do with a change of scenery as health, but both have played a major factor.

Comeback players can make an impact on pennant races and they already have this year for teams such as the Yankees (Colon, Martin and Eric Chavez) and Indians (Grady Sizemore and Hafner).

You can follow me on Twitter @JimBowdenESPNxm, and I look forward to your input, feedback and ideas. Thanks for reading.

Baltimore Orioles
Zach Britton was supposed to start the year in the minors but injuries to Baltimore's rotation forced his promotion. In five starts he is 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA. He is a ground ball pitcher (57.3 GB percent) who has already induced five double plays. Britton is an early favorite for Rookie of the Year.
--Dave McNeill

Boston Red Sox
There's only one word to describe Jed Lowrie's performance thus far -- irreplaceable. After the Red Sox stumbled to their forgettable 2-10 start, Lowrie stepped in to give their offense the spark it so desperately needed. While he won't continue to hit at a .390/.413/.620 clip over the rest of the season, he should still provide solid offensive production whether he's the starting shortstop or the utility infielder. Considering many left him for dead after a string of wrist injuries and a bout with mononucleosis, it's nice to see him proving his doubters wrong.
--Chip Buck, Fire Brand of the AL

New York Yankees
The Yankees were not sure what to expect out of Russell Martin heading into the season. Were his hip/back injuries fully healed, or would he continue his four-year slide from the guy who hit 19 HRs, batted .293/.374/.469 and managed to steal 21 bases as a 24-year-old catcher with the Dodgers to the guy who hit just five home runs with a .248/.347/.332 line in 97 games during 2010? After 19 games, Martin looks back to that 24-year-old form having already hit six home runs with a nifty .290/.364/.594 line. The Yanks could not be more pleased.
--Jason Rosenberg, It's About the Money

Tampa Bay Rays
Sam Fuld has become a Twitter sensation with his diving catches, clutch hits and base-stealing exploits. A throw-in in the Matt Garza trade with the Cubs, Fuld has taken over the leadoff spot and is hitting .315/.380/.472 with 16 runs and 10 steals -- a key reason the team is now 14-11 after its 0-6 start.
--David Schoenfield

Toronto Blue Jays
The added pressure of a big contract extension, a paucity of pitches to hit and the immutable laws of physics haven't stopped Jose Bautista from elevating his production to dizzying heights, as he's hitting .360/.529/.760.
--Drew Fairservice, Ghostrunner on First

Chicago White Sox
It's hard to be pleasantly surprised by a player who would have won the MVP award three years ago if not for a freak injury that prematurely ended his season, but after two tough seasons, Carlos Quentin is hitting .305/.394/.632, with six homers and an MLB-leading 13 doubles, certainly qualifying as the most pleasant surprise on a team that's been largely devoid of pleasantness for the past three weeks or so.
--Bill Parker, The Platoon Advantage

Cleveland Indians
On a team on which nearly everything has gone right, Justin Masterson's performance has been the biggest, and most pleasant, surprise. His stuff and the underlying numbers don't support his current line (5-0, 2.18 ERA), but if he's able to keep the walks and homers down and ground balls up the way he has so far, he'll keep that ERA somewhere in the threes, and will be a rock-solid starter at the top of the rotation of what is suddenly looking like a very exciting young team.
--Bill Parker, The Platoon Advantage

Detroit Tigers
After a strong showing over the final months of 2009, catcher Alex Avila struggled as a rookie in 2010, hitting just .228 with seven home runs in 333 PAs. So far he's showing the hitting tools predicted of him last year, as he's hitting .290/.356/.537 and tied with Miguel Cabrera for the club lead with 16 RBIs.
--David Schoenfield

Kansas City Royals
In what was to be his third "make or break" season, Royals outfielder Alex Gordon has shown there is plenty of life in his bat, getting off to a torrid start, hitting .327/.382/.485. His April included a career-best 19-game hitting streak. On a team that needs production anywhere it can find it, Gordon has emerged as a steady No. 3 hitter ahead of Billy Butler. Finally, they have formed the dangerous offensive tandem Royals fans dreamed about for years.
--Craig Brown, Royals Authority

Minnesota Twins
Trying to find a pleasant surprise on this team is like getting your molars removed without pain medication. We'll go with Jason Kubel, who had a disappointing 2010 after a great showing in '09. He's hitting .333 with a team-leading two home runs. Yes, we said team-leading.
--David Schoenfield

Los Angeles Angels
Dan Haren and Jered Weaver have been brilliant, of course, but you already knew they were great. The real surprise has been Howie Kendrick. He's hitting just .280, but he's already got six homers -- his career high is 10 -- and his walk rate is way up from his career norms, too. If he manages to retain the power and patience and his batting average climbs back toward his career .294, they've got a superstar on their hands.
--Bill Parker, The Platoon Advantage

Oakland A's
After missing all of last season and signing a one-year deal for a million dollars in the offseason, Brandon McCarthy fended off a host of contenders for the fifth starter's spot this spring. McCarthy has pitched 35 1/3 innings in his first five starts, has a 5.75 K/BB ratio and has allowed only one home run. His 3.57 ERA is impressive but his 2.44 FIP speaks to just how good he's been (already 1.1 WAR).
--Dan Hennessey, Baseballin' on a Budget

Seattle Mariners
Many would point to Michael Pineda as the surprise for the Mariners, but in some ways his success was almost expected. Instead, Justin Smoak's start has been the more pleasing one, especially in light of his struggles last year. Now instead of pressing at the plate and looking nervous, Smoak seems calm and is letting everything come to him. He's an important part of the Mariners' future, so it's wonderful to see this type of progress for him.
--Conor Dowley, Pro Ball NW

Texas Rangers
The reliever who was expected to join the Texas rotation this year was Neftali Feliz. Instead, Ron Washington decided to move Alexi Ogando there late in spring training. He's been brilliant, going 3-0 in five starts, with a 2.30 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. His strikeout rate (6.0 per 9) doesn't support the rest of the numbers, so expect some regression to set in.
--David Schoenfield

A couple of years ago, the ESPN Insider team jokingly came up with "Cinco do Samplo" as a way of noting that there’s a point at which we can start saying that there’s something real to attach to the numbers we’re seeing -- and that time isn’t April. As Keith Law noted this morning, it’s a dubious exercise to attach too much significance to this week’s Indians/Royals series, because it’s fairly unlikely that either team is going to wind up above .500. Of course, the way the White Sox, Twins and Tigers are playing, being near .500 might encourage anybody to make a move in July that changes the equation.

But even checking the initial exuberance of April, one thing about the Indians’ and Royals’ season-starting runs that is nice to see is that both Alex Gordon and Matt LaPorta are hitting. Both are former top prospects, LaPorta peaking at 23rd on Baseball America’s pre-2008 prospect list, while Gordon was first overall on Kevin Goldstein’s list of top 100 prospects before 2007 (and second on BA’s list). And from the lofty expectations attached to those rankings, both have taken tumbles. Gordon’s career batting line coming into this season was .244/.318/.405 in 1,641 plate appearances. LaPorta’s .232/.307/.388 career line had dashed expectations that he’d make that CC Sabathia-to-Milwaukee stretch deal pay off for the Indians.

Failure through 2010 isn’t the only similarity between these two. Both had hip surgeries that interrupted their development, Gordon losing almost three months of action in 2009, while LaPorta recovered from his surgery over the winter of 2009/2010, leaving him with a late start last spring, and still enduring soreness in the joint at the end of the season. Both have had to move down the defensive spectrum, with Gordon moving to an outfield corner from third while LaPorta has shifted from left to first base -- in both cases, toward positions where higher standards at the plate will define their job security. Both are smack-dab in the middle of what most sabermetricians define as career peaks for projected performance, with LaPorta in his age-26 season, and Gordon in his age-27 campaign.

Both are hitting in the early going. LaPorta is at .260/.367/.460, while Gordon has delivered a .353/.380/.515 line. "It’s just April" is an easy enough refrain to sap anybody’s enthusiasm -- Gordon isn’t going to finish the year hitting .353, after all, and when that drops it’ll drag his OBP and SLG with it unless he starts bopping and walking. The hope for both is that this isn’t fluky -- say, something akin to Jeff Francoeur’s eight walks in his first 12 games last year; Frenchy’s hacktastic approach is a career-defining handicap, so nobody was surprised when he managed just 22 more the remainder of the season. For every Jose Bautista, it might seem as if there are dozens of Francoeurs.

The difference between that small-sample caution and this pair of former top prospects is that, not so very long ago, Gordon and LaPorta were both projected to do better than they have. Not by some, but by all: by projection tools, scouts and statheads. Both have had their problems getting on track in ways that weren’t entirely under their control; beyond injuries, Gordon’s punitive assignment to Omaha last year was earned, but might have been allowed to run overlong. When you underwhelm expectations, that sort of thing is an understandable professional hazard.

So both Gordon and LaPorta are on the spot to deliver. Via PECOTA’s spread of projections, both have about 30 percent shots at finishing with seasons around an .800 OPS, which sounds conservative, but that’s what past failure does for you: It puts a big dent in your projected future. If the Indians and the Royals get these projected numberss from their former prospects, though, they’ll be able to take some satisfaction from their seasons, even if they don’t wind up atop the standings.

Christina Kahrl helped found Baseball Prospectus in 1996, is a member of the BBWAA, and covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter here.

Eric Karabell and Keith Law joined forces on Thursday's Baseball Today pod. Be sure to check it out ...

• Are the Mets better than we think? Keith says not with that pitching.
• Jeremy Hellickson's first start was solid, but Tampa lost again. So did Boston. When is it no longer a fluke?
• Is Alex Gordon for real?
• Ubaldo Jimenez goes on the DL.
• Which MLB pitchers have four elite pitches?
• You won't believe who the No. 1 player in fantasy is right now.
• Thoughts on Scott Kazmir's decline, the four-man rotation, what happened in 1990, discussion of middle relief and Chris Tillman.

Typically, even at this early point in the season, Kansas City Royals fans are already getting sour looks on their faces: Picture Dennis Leonard after accidentally swallowing his chewing tobacco. The very best the Royals could do last season was three consecutive wins. Granted, Kansas City strung together that victory trifecta on six different occasions, but three straight was the point at which Royals momentum peaked on the way to a 67-95 finish. It was as if this payroll-challenged outfit had not a salary cap, but a consecutive wins cap.

This year's Royals, however, have changed their walk-up music.

It takes a Marty Pattin-bulldog mentality to begin a season like this. Tuesday's walk-off win over the White Sox made the Royals just the third team in the past 20 seasons to have its first four wins come in the last at-bat and the first AL team to do so since the 1989 Royals. That win, following Sunday's 12-9 win over the Angels that ended on Matt Treanor's three-run homer in the 13th inning, gave the Royals consecutive wins in games lasting longer than 11 innings for the first time since April of 1969.

Yes, K.C. blew a ninth-inning lead Wednesday afternoon against Chicago. But the Royals tied it in the bottom of the ninth and had the winning run on third base with one out in the 11th. Jeff Francoeur struck out and Alcides Escobar grounded out to strand that winning run. The result wasn't there but at this point it's more about the mentality -- the Royals were a base hit away from five straight last at-bat wins.

Joakim Soria blew the save Wednesday, but he failed to convert only three save opportunities last season and is among the game's best closers. This season, for the first time in quite a while, there may be more in that Royals bullpen than just their All-Star closer. Kansas City's last three wins have all been recorded by rookie relief pitchers.

Saturday's victory went to Aaron Crow, the Royals' first-round draft pick in 2009, who signed with K.C. one year after the Nationals couldn't sign him after drafting him in the first round in 2008. Tim Collins, meanwhile, wasn't drafted at all. Collins is 5-foot-7 and perhaps 170 pounds. He can light up a radar gun near 97 mph and throw a curveball that buckles major league knees. He'd previously been with the Blue Jays and Braves and earned a place in the Royals bullpen this spring after arriving in camp as a non-roster invitee. Collins' path to the Kansas City bullpen could not have been more different than Crow's, but after three innings of two-hit relief Sunday, Collins had earned his first major league victory. Tuesday's rookie reliever winner was Jeremy Jeffress, who was the Brewers' first-round pick in 2006 and came to the Royals as part of the haul received from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade.

The offense has been there, too. Alex Gordon, the University of Nebraska hero who hit just .232 and .215 the previous two seasons, may be one more slumping season away from officially becoming a hometown bust, but is 11-for-21 with five RBIs in his past four games. He's hitting .379 overall, with five doubles, a homer and a 1.075 OPS. Gordon, Melky Cabrera, Francoeur, Billy Butler and Chris Getz are all batting north of .290. Treanor's weekend included two brilliant defensive blocks of home plate for outs and the walk-off home run that beat the Angels.

From here the Royals play three games at Detroit and two at Minnesota. Then it's back home for eight games against the Mariners and Indians. There's a fair chance given their energetic start and remaining April schedule, that Kansas City could still be a first-place team entering May.

Steve Berthiaume is a SportsCenter anchor and host of Baseball Tonight. He'll be a regular contributor to the SweetSpot blog. Follow him on Twitter at @SBerthiaumeESPN.

One of the fun aspects of the first week of the season is the quirky results we see. No, the Royals are not better than the Red Sox, but you gotta love the Royals playing exciting baseball and going 4-1.

So, here's a random scroll through some of the numbers -- mostly meaningless, of course -- that we've seen so far. All stats are entering Wednesday's games.

• Jonny Gomes leads the majors with seven walks. Gomes walked just 39 times in 573 plate appearances in 2010 (with 123 strikeouts), so I'm not sure where this plate discipline is suddenly coming from. He drew three walks off Shaun Marcum, a pitcher who had the fourth-best walk rate in the AL last season.

HOT AND COLD

Are the Red Sox this bad? Are the Rangers this good? What do you think of the Orioles and Reds?

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• Ryan Howard is hitting .412, but has zero walks. The year he hit 58 home runs (2006), Howard drew 108 walks. He drew 107 the following season, giving him a career high 17.5 percent walk rate. That fell all the way to 9.5 percent last season. His OBP, once as high as .425, was only .353 in 2010. Do pitchers simply not fear him as much anymore?
• Colby Rasmus has five walks, two strikeouts. Sticking with the plate discipline theme, Rasmus has shown positive improvement so far. He had a 148/63 SO/BB ratio last season, striking out 27.7 percent of the time. If he cuts down the strikeouts, he's going to be a big-time weapon.
• Nick Hundley leads the majors with a .533 average. Hundley actually isn't that bad of a hitter for a catcher. His 2010 line of .249/.308/.418 was pretty good for Petco Park and gave him an above-average adjusted OPS. He could be a 15-homer guy if the Padres make him an everyday catcher.
• Alex Gordon is hitting .375 with a 1.067 OPS. The former No. 2 overall pick has fizzled at the major league level and this is probably his last chance in a K.C. uniform. It's unlikely everything has suddenly clicked, but it's nice to see him off to a good start.
• The Royals lead the majors with 32 walks. In 2009, the Royals were next-to-last in walks drawn in the AL. In 2010, under new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, they climbed to ninth. So far in 2011, Seitzer has them showing continued patience. This is good news for Royals fans, especially with more talented hitters soon arriving.
• Royals have four wins, all in their final at-bat. According to Elias, the Royals are the third team in 20 years to win their first four games in such fashion, joining the 2010 Reds and 2003 Reds. The 2010 Reds actually won their first six in their final at-bat. Hope, Royals fans, hope.
• Starlin Castro has yet to swing and miss at a pitch. He has 34 swings, according to ESPN Stats and Information. Next-best: Alberto Callaspo with 23.
• There have been 20 blown saves. That's all blown saves, not just ninth-inning ones. There have been 61 games played, so we're averaging a blown save every three games. There have been 34 saves, a ratio of 1.7 saves for every blown save. In 2010, we had 2.2 saves for every blown save, so the bullpens have been shaky early on.
• The Dodgers have hit one home run in five games. Now, four of those games came against the Giants (and the Dodgers won three of them anyway), but L.A. was 15th in the NL in homers a year ago.
• The Rays are hitting .138. They have 17 hits and have scored six runs in four losses. Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon are a combined 2-for-27.
• Orioles pitchers have allowed a .152 batting average. Well, duh, they played Tampa Bay.
• The Phillies are 21st in the majors in ERA. Greatest rotation ever? Absurd. (Just kidding, Phillies fans! Just a joke. Take it easy. Your team is 3-1. They're fine. The rotation is superb.)

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.