ESPN MLB

"I think we're going to be a lot better than some people think -- a lot better," Chicago White Sox general manager Kenny Williams said Wednesday to CBSSports' Danny Knobler.

The White Sox won 79 games a year ago, a pretty remarkable achievement considering Adam Dunn hit .159 (lowest ever for a player with 450 plate appearances), Alex Rios had a .265 OBP (one of the 10 lowest figures ever for an outfielder with 500 PAs), Gordon Beckham hit .230 with a .296 OBP, Brent Morel posted a .287 OBP and Juan Pierre played 157 games.

That, my friends, is a lot of bad hitting.

The bad news is all those guys except Pierre are back. The good news is that they can't do any worse. The White Sox lost longtime starter Mark Buehrle and outfielder Carlos Quentin (second on the team in home runs and RBIs in 2011) via free agency. In their spots will be Chris Sale, moving from the bullpen, and prospect Dayan Viciedo. The rotation will count on better seasons from John Danks (4.37 ERA) and Jake Peavy (4.92 in 18 starts) and a repeat performance from 2011 surprise Philip Humber. Gavin Floyd fills out what could be a solid rotation, although one lacking a No. 1-type ace.

The bullpen is minus closer Sergio Santos, traded to the Blue Jays, but the White Sox believe they have depth with Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain, rookie Addison Reed and Will Ohman.

But it's the offense that will decide the fate of the 2012 White Sox. Do you believe in comebacks? If so, maybe you'll take the over on the betting line of 77.5 wins.

Robin Ventura succeeds Ozzie Guillen as manager of the White Sox, having never managed (or coached) at any level in pro ball. Just what has he gotten himself into?

Distinguished Playing Career

Although he will be hard-pressed to make as vivid an impression as his predecessor, Ventura should be able to command the respect of his players on the basis of his own career as a player. Though he isn’t a Hall of Famer, he has certainly had a career worthy of a Cooperstown exhibit. He was a three-time All-American at Oklahoma State University, where he set the NCAA consecutive game hitting streak record of 58 (he still holds the Division I mark). He was a first-round draft pick (10th overall) of the Chicago White Sox in 1988 and made his big-league debut a year later, after only 129 games in the minors.

While never a top-10 player, with few "black ink" stats on the back of his baseball cards, his career was notable for its consistency. Though he only surpassed 100 RBIs and 30 homers twice in his 16-year career, he was a six-time Gold Glover at third, and from 1991-2003 he compiled a 117 OPS+, with no season lower than 97. Whatever foot speed he had in his youth was erased in a horrific fractured/dislocated ankle injury suffered during a spring training game in 1997. He had compiled a line of .276/.367/.442 prior to 1997, but only .256/.357/.446 from 1997 onward.

Ventura had a knack for making history with the bases loaded. On September 4, 1995, he became only the eighth player to hit two grand slams in the same game. On May 20, 1999, he became the first and only player to hit a grand slam in both games of a doubleheader. During Game Five of the 1999 National League Championship Series, he hit a walkoff slam, which turned into a "Grand Slam Single" when his trip around the bases was interrupted by a celebrating teammate who hoisted Ventura up, preventing him from touching home plate. Another memorable moment came in a game against the Rangers in 1993, when he decided he didn’t like getting hit by Nolan Ryan, and charged the mound, only to be "noogied to death" by the 46-year-old Texan.

Track record of neophyte managers

Of those who will be pacing a dugout in 2012, at least seven went into their first big-league stewardship like Ventura is now, a babe in the managerial woods. But unlike Ventura, they all had prior coaching experience. Let’s examine how those seven did in their first two seasons:

• Dusty Baker (1993 Giants): Baker inherited a team that won 72 games in 1992. Thanks in large part to the addition of free agent Barry Bonds (who compiled a 1.136 OPS), San Francisco improved to a 103-59 record in 1993, with Baker winning NL Manager of the Year. The '94 squad slumped to a 55-60 mark in the strike-curtailed season.
• Bob Melvin (2003 Mariners): The 2002 squad went 93-69, only good enough for third place in the highly competitive American League West and six games out of the wild card. Melvin guided the M’s to the exact same record in his first year. This time they nabbed second place in the West, but still missed the wild card by two games. Melvin’s second year saw the Mariners fall from seventh to last in the AL in runs scored, and the team went 63-99. Melvin was fired after the season.
• Ozzie Guillen (2004 White Sox): After the Sox went 86-76 in 2003, Guillen took over in 2004 and led the team to an 83-79 finish. His second season was when the magic happened: An AL-best 99-63 record and a 11-1 postseason record culminating in the franchise’s first title since 1917.
• Joe Girardi (2006 Marlins): The 2005 Florida squad went 83-79, and Girardi somehow guided the team with the lowest payroll in the majors in '06 to a very respectable 78-84 record. He was rewarded with the NL Manager-of-the-Year award, but not before getting fired by the Marlins due to some clashes with ownership.
• Bud Black (2007 Padres): Black’s fortunes were similar to Melvin’s -- he barely changed the team’s record in his first year (going from 88-74 to 89-74, with that 163rd game being a loss in the wild card tiebreaker), then saw the team totally collapse in his second season (63-99).
• Kirk Gibson (2010 Diamondbacks): The D-backs had suffered through a 70-92 campaign in 2009, and were on the same path in the middle of 2010 at 31-48 when Gibson took over. He guided them to a slightly better 34-49 finish, then surprised most pundits with an NL West Division title in 2011, going 94-68 and earning the league’s Manager-of-the-Year award.
• John Farrell (2011 Blue Jays): After the Jays finished in fourth place in the AL East 2010 despite an 85-77 record, manager Cito Gaston retired, and Farrell was surprisingly given the reins. The Jays meandered to an 81-81 ledger in 2011, never more than four games over or five games under .500 at any point.
• Don Mattingly (2011 Dodgers): Donnie Baseball took over for a retiring Joe Torre, who had gone 80-82 in 2010. Despite all the off-field distractions, and very little offense outside of Matt Kemp, Mattingly was able to guide the Dodgers to an 82-79 record in 2011.

Two of the most recent examples of managers being hired despite no prior managing or coaching experience have turned out poorly:

• Buck Martinez (2001 Blue Jays): The 2000 season saw the Jim Fregosi-led Jays go 83-79. Martinez, who spent most of his post-playing career in the broadcast booth, led the ’01 squad to a similar 80-82 record; after getting off to a 20-33 start in 2002, Martinez was fired.
• A.J. Hinch (2009 Diamondbacks): The 2008 Diamondbacks went a disappointing 82-80, and when they started out 12-17 in '09, Hinch was given the job, at the tender age of 34. He led the team to a 58-75 finish to that season, and was 31-48 in the 2010 campaign when he was replaced by ... Kirk Gibson.

As you can see, most times there is little change in year one, but major upheaval (both good and bad) in year two.

The team he will manage

Since their splendid 99-63 regular season run to the 2005 World Series title, the record of the ChiSox has been neither wretched nor exemplary. With the exception of 2007 (a 72-win campaign), they’ve won between 79 and 90 games each year. They’ve compiled a .511 winning percentage and just one playoff appearance. They rank 13th in W-L percentage during that time.

But last year’s club showed some glaring weaknesses. On offense, the 2011 squad had only two regulars compile an OPS greater than .728 (the league OPS was .730) or over a 100 OPS+. There were 22 players with more than 400 plate appearances and a sub-.660 OPS during 2011, and the Sox had five of them. The team finished no higher than seventh in the AL in any offensive category. It were also the third-oldest offense in the league. On defense, committing the second-fewest errors in the AL couldn’t mask the lack of range afield, as White Sox' Defensive Efficiency ranked third from bottom. If you reached first base against the Sox, you ran, as they threw out a league-low 22 percent of stolen-base attempts. The pitching helped keep some of the pressure off of the defense, as their 7.5 K/9 and 2.78 K/BB led the AL. But they still ended up with a league-average 4.10 ERA.

In 2012, the club will face some major hurdles if it wishes to improve on last season's performance or even just to keep pace with it. The starting rotation must replacing staff ace/workhorse Mark Buehrle’s 200-plus innings. Buehrle’s 2,425 frames since 2001 are 60 more than anyone else. John Danks, who pitched better than his 4.33 ERA might suggest, assumes the No. 1 starter position, with 22-year-old Chris Sale stepping into the rotation. Philip Humber pitched more than 21 2/3 innings in the majors for the first time in 2011, by 141 innings; his BABIP was a low .276, and something may have to give in 2012. In the bullpen, Matt Thornton has been the ChiSox primary set-up man for six years, and had a shot to close last year but lost it; with the departure of Sergio Santos via trade, can the 35-year-old Thornton step up, despite a sharp drop in his K/9 rate last year (12.0 to 9.5)?

On offense, there is a growing concern over second baseman Gordon Beckham. The former first-round draft pick has seen his OPS slide from .807 to .695 to .633, though his defense has improved at second base. Third baseman Brent Morel may not be the answer at the hot corner, as his profile (a .250 doubles hitter with few walks and below-average range) is lacking for the position. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski is 35 and closing in on 1,500 games behind the plate. His 120 games at catcher last year were his lowest since 2004, and he threw out only 20 percent of runners attempting to steal, below his career mark of 24 percent. There have been only 30 player-seasons in the past 50 years where a 35-or-older catcher has managed at least a .728 OPS (as Pierzynski did last year).

Then we come to the two biggest enigmas, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. Everyone is well aware of Dunn’s legendary collapse in 2011, including his .064 batting average versus lefties. With three years and $44 million to go, can new hitting coach Jeff Manto get "The Big Donkey" standing upright again? Also, while Rios will never truly be worth the $21 million he is drawing each year through 2014, the Sox hope for something closer to the .284/.334/.457 line of 2010, rather than the .227/.265/.328 slash of 2011. They’re moving him to left field this season, where he has played one game his entire career.

Will Ventura exceed expectations?

So, Robin Ventura will certainly have his hands full (and tied) with a team that is, at best, in transition and, at worst, about to fall off a cliff. If he can move the White Sox in the right direction, it will be yet another extraordinary performance, as impressive as any of his grand slams. Given his history as a player, and the opportunity to establish a new atmosphere in the clubhouse, I think there is at least a chance he can pull it off.

Diane Firstman blogs about baseball at Value Over Replacement Grit, a SweetSpot network affiliate, and you can follow her on Twitter at @dianagram

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

The American League Central may have a reputation as baseball's skinflint division, but such is not the case: The White Sox, Twins and Tigers each had payrolls over $100 million in 2011 and ranked in the top 10 of highest-salaried ballclubs.

The problem was that two of those three teams didn't get much for their money. Considering the issues in Chicago and Minnesota, and the youth and unwillingness to spend big in Cleveland and Kansas City, Detroit will enter 2012 as the heavy favorite to win the division -- no matter what happens in the offseason. But even the Tigers are far from a sure thing and if the Indians can get good health from Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore in 2012, plus strong seasons from youngsters Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall, their offense could be dramatically improved.

But that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's a quick look at some action plans and items of interest for the five teams.

Detroit Tigers

1. Third base (Brandon Inge)

With Inge plummeting to a .197 average, Detroit's third-base production was among the worst in the majors. The team has already been linked to free agent Aramis Ramirez and trade discussions with Angels on Maicer Izturis. Both would be big upgrades over Inge, who still has one year remaining on his contract. The dark horse possibility: With Carlos Guillen ($13 million) and Magglio Ordonez ($10 million) off the books, the Tigers pursue Jose Reyes to fill their leadoff void, moving Jhonny Peralta to third base.

Likely solution: As much I love the Reyes idea, Ramirez to Detroit seems like a logical fit. The negatives are Ramirez's lack of range and Detroit's need for a little more athleticism in the lineup.



2. Middle relief

By the postseason, Jim Leyland was down to two relievers he trusted: Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit. Al Alburquerque had a strong rookie season out of nowhere and Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth provide rare power lefty arms, but Albuquerque and Schlereth still have trouble throwing strikes. The Tigers could go after a low-cost veteran like LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Gonzalez or Darren Oliver, or maybe make a trade pitch for White Sox lefty Matt Thornton, although it seems unlikely Chicago would trade Thornton to a division rival.

Likely solution: A veteran righty-hander, with the Tigers counting on improvement from Coke and Schlereth.

3. A left-handed bat.

The Tigers missed Brennan Boesch's stick in the playoffs, as Victor Martinez and the hobbled Alex Avila were the only threats from the left side (granted, Don Kelly hit a big home run). Boesch's return will help, but Detroit could use a lefty bat to help balance out the lineup.

Likely solution: Andy Dirks may given another shot at that third/fourth outfielder job after hitting .251/.296/.406 as a rookie. But what about Rockies left fielder Seth Smith, who is on the trade block? His career .518 slugging percentage against righties has been bolstered a bit by Coors Field, but he's a solid hitter who could platoon with Ryan Raburn in left, or allow Raburn to play some at second base.

Cleveland Indians

1. Find a left fielder who can hit.

Michael Brantley is a decent asset -- but as a center fielder. The plan to use Brantley as an everyday left fielder was never a great one to begin with, as he's never going to pop many balls over the fence. Brantley, Austin Kearns, Shelley Duncan and Travis Buck all started at least 20 games in left; Jared Head started six games there. As a group, Cleveland's left fielders hit a miserable .233 with seven home runs; only Baltimore and Minnesota received a lower OPS from their left fielders.

Likely solution: Signing Grady Sizemore doesn't necessarily push Brantley back to a starting role in left field. He's best used as a fourth outfielder and Sizemore insurance. Michael Cuddyer may end up getting priced out of Cleveland's range, so how former Twins teammate Jason Kubel? He can play left and step in as designated hitter when Travis Hafner suffers his inevitable breakdown.

2. Find at least one more starter.

Right now, the Indians can only count on Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez for their rotation. Carlos Carrasco is out for the season following Tommy John surgery, Fausto Carmona was terrible and even Josh Tomlin is a question mark after the league caught up to him in the second half (5.26 ERA).

Likely solution: Jeanmar Gomez has been roughed up in two stints in the majors (146 hits in 116 innings), but his Triple-A numbers were solid, if unspectacular. He'll be given another chance in spring training to battle David Huff for a rotation spot.

3. If not Matt LaPorta, who plays first base?

The big prospect acquired in the CC Sabathia deal, LaPorta just hasn't hit as expected, posting a .299 on-base percentage in 2011. The Indians seem ready to punt on LaPorta, who turns 27 in January so isn't even that young. Carlos Santana ended up playing a lot of first base down the stretch, but let's hope he's kept behind the plate, where his hitting value would be maximized.

Likely solution: If free agent Carlos Pena lowers his price, he's a possibility, and the Indians reportedly talked with Houston about Brett Wallace. I'm not sure Wallace is much of an upgrade over LaPorta, but at least he's younger. Casey Kotchman could fit nicely here as lower-cost alternative after posting a .378 OBP with Tampa. And hey, he's only two years older than LaPorta.

Chicago White Sox

1. What do you do with Adam Dunn and Alex Rios?

Dunn hit .159 with a .569 OPS. Rios hit .227 with a .613 OPS. Dunn was the least-valuable position player in baseball, according to Baseball-Reference.com, while Rios was seventh-worst. They made $24 million in 2011 and will make a combined $26 million in 2012. Both are signed through 2014.

Likely solution: General manager Kenny Williams will be busy during the winter meetings, perhaps shopping around guys like Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Matt Thornton, looking for some sort of backup plan to these two pieces of junk. The 40-man roster currently includes Alejandro De Aza, who probably deserves a chance to play somewhere after a nice run (if over his head) last season. Let's put it this way: he can produce an OPS higher than .613.

2. Third base (Brent Morel)

After struggling all season, hitting .250 with just two home runs and seven walks in 328 at-bats through August, Morel suddenly changed his approach in September, got more patient and swung for the fences. He hit just .224 the final month, but with eight home runs and 15 walks. Was it a legitimate improvement, or merely feasting off September tired arms and rookie call-ups?

Likely solution: Morel's hot September earns him another shot.

3. The new manager

This isn't so much an action plan, as a big question mark. Robin Ventura has no previous managerial experience, but the good sign for the White Sox is that respected pitching coach Don Cooper is still around to handle the pitching staff.

Likely solution: If Dunn and Rios stink it up again, it won't matter how well Ventura transitions into the job -- he'll be doomed.

Kansas City Royals

1. Fix the rotation

The Royals had a 4.82 ERA from their starters; only Baltimore was worse in the American League.

Likely solution: The Royals already made a move here, trading Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. The club also re-signed Bruce Chen. With the signing of Jonathan Broxton, and the emergence of rookie relievers Greg Holland, Louis Coleman and Tim Collins in 2011, fellow 2011 rookie Aaron Crow will be given a shot at the rotation. I have my doubts it will work: Crow walked 31 in 62 innings out of the bullpen and left-handed hitters tagged him for a .311 average and .538 slugging percentage. There's a reason he struggled in the minors as a starter in 2010 (5.73 ERA). He has a great arm, but won't be able to rely on his fastball/slider combo as a starter.

2. Second base (Chris Getz)

Royals second basemen posted a .301 OBP and .636 OPS (26th in the majors) in 2011.

Likely solution: Rookie Johnny Giavotella played the final two months there and hit .247 with a .649 OPS. He'll head into spring training as the favorite to win the job. He hit .338/.390/.481 at Triple-A, so the batting potential is there: Bill James projects him to hit .295/.342/.419.

3. Center field (empty -- Cabrera traded)

The Royals were smart to deal Cabrera after his career season.

Likely solution: Lorenzo Cain, acquired from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade, will finally get a chance to play after spending 2011 in Triple-A. Cain is old for a guy still considered a prospect -- he turns 26 in April -- so he should be a polished product by now. He showed some power for the first time in his career, hitting 16 home runs for Omaha while batting .312. He doesn't walk much, so won't be a star, but should come closing to matching Cabrera's 2011 production.

Minnesota Twins

1. The M & M boys

After 2011's train wreck -- the club's first 90-loss season since 2000 (and at 99 losses, the most the 1982 Twins lost 102) -- it seems pretty clear this team will be dead in the water again unless Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau get healthy and regain their All-Star status. But they also can't assume these guys are going to play 140-plus games.

Likely solution: Obviously, the Twins need a better backup plan for Mauer than giving .167-hitting Drew Butera 250 plate appearances. They already accomplished with the smart signing of Ryan Doumit to a one-year deal for $3 million. Doumit can catch or play right field, but his bat is good enough to warrant a regular place in the lineup even when he's not behind the plate. Of course, he's also been injury-prone throughout his career. Prospect Chris Parmalee, who impressed in a September call-up, gives the team a potentially decent backup option for Morneau as well.

2. Right field: Empty (Michael Cuddyer, free agent)

For all the attention Cuddyer is getting, let's remember that he's really just a complementary bat on a good team. Unfortunately, considering some of the other outfielders the Twins tried last season -- Rene Tosoni, Jason Repko, Trevor Plouffe -- you realize they had nobody in the upper levels of the system.

Likely solution: Doumit may factor into their plans here, but regardless, the Twins need another bat to play a corner or DH. Smith is a trade option and free agent Josh Willingham is another possibility.

3. Closer: Empty (Matt Capps and Joe Nathan, free agents)

Nathan signed with Texas while GM Terry Ryan recently told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that it's likely Capps could return.

Likely solution: Capps was terrible last year, allowing 10 home runs in 65.2 innings while striking out just 4.7 hitters per nine innings. Two years ago, he had a 5.80 ERA. I can't fathom why any team would want to make Capps its closer. Sadly, however, the rest of the Minnesota bullpen is nearly as uninspiring (as is the rotation, but I don't have room to get to them here), but Capps throws strikes and there's nothing the Twins love more than a pitcher who throws strikes (velocity are ability to miss bats don't seem to be a factor). There's no reason for this team to spend big money on one of the remaining free-agent closers, so it probably will be Capps or lefty Glen Perkins.

Mark Buehrle took the mound for the Chicago White Sox against the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday night riding a streak of 18 straight starts with three or fewer runs allowed. Buehrle’s string of exceptional performances goes back to April 22, which means that the last time he was dinged for at least four on the board, Derek Jeter and Jim Thome were early in their milestone pursuits, Buster Posey's left ankle was still intact, and everybody was asking, “What’s wrong with the Red Sox?”

Trivia buffs take note: The last White Sox pitcher to go 18 straight starts with three or fewer runs surrendered was Frank Elmer Smith of the 1909 squad. Smith went by the nickname “Piano Mover” because he made a few extra bucks toting Steinways during the offseason. According to his SABR Baseball Biography Project profile, Smith liked to brag that he could “carry a baby grand up four flights of stairs without a rest.”

In contrast, Buehrle is making $14 million in the final installment of a four-year, $56 million contract. All he has to do is help make White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf and general manager Kenny Williams forget that they’re paying Adam Dunn $12 million to slug .296 with a .590 OPS.

As it turns out, Buehrle’s streak ended when he allowed four runs on 12 hits over 7 1/3 innings in a 4-1 loss to Cleveland at U.S. Cellular Field. He was outpitched by the Indians’ Fausto Carmona, and the White Sox missed out on a chance to move into second place for the first time since April 12 and pass the Indians in the standings for the first time since April 4. The Piano Mover and the Tribe are both safe for the time being.

At the risk of flogging the same theme ad nauseam, it’s tough for the White Sox to generate any momentum with two of their three de facto “boppers’’ making such negligible contributions. Paul Konerko ranks among the American League’s top five with 27 homers and a .556 slugging percentage. But center fielder Alex Rios, hitting .213 with seven homers in 413 at-bats, took a seat again for Alejandro De Aza, a fringe big leaguer who at least brings energy and some speed to the mix. As for Dunn, he singled in three at-bats to raise his average to .164. Just to put that in perspective, Dunn could go 15-for-his-next-15 and he still wouldn’t be hitting .200.

Former Indians outfielder Jody Gerut dropped by the Indians’ broadcast booth during the middle innings and did his best to show compassion, but he was still at a loss for words to describe the anguish that Dunn must be feeling.

“If you asked him now, he would probably say he’d have a better shot right-handed,” Gerut said.

Throw in third baseman Brent Morel’s four walks and .272 on-base percentage in 88 games and the recent loss of catcher A.J. Pierzynski to a fractured wrist, and the White Sox are one offensively challenged bunch. They’ve scored 488 runs this season, fewer than Cleveland and Baltimore. They rank 12th among the 14 American League teams with 60 stolen bases, and dead last with a 61 percent success rate. And they’re 11th with a .242 batting average with runners in scoring position.

The White Sox have won nine of their past 12 games, but it’s been a generally buzz-free ride. After dropping six straight to Boston and New York, the Sox climbed back into the race while beating up on Minnesota, Baltimore and Kansas City. Maybe that’s enough to quicken the pulse of the diehards -- and Hawk Harrelson -- but the Sox rank 19th in the majors in attendance, so they haven’t exactly captured the imagination of a city. Your average Chicagoan is more consumed by Jay Cutler’s training camp and Ryan Dempster’s true feelings about a return to action by Carlos Zambrano.

The White Sox’s staff ace couldn’t do much to change that Wednesday. Cleveland manager Manny Acta started five lefty hitters against the left-handed Buehrle, and the lineup configuration paid off. Buehrle’s stuff was up in the zone for much of the evening, and the Indians routinely took him up the middle or the opposite way for base hits.

Carmona, meanwhile, came within two outs of his first complete game this season and pulled the Tribe within two games of first-place Detroit. These Indians have their flaws, but they’re feisty to the point of Eckstein-ian.

So where is the American League Central race headed? It’s the only three-team scrum remaining in all of baseball, but it remains compelling for all the wrong reasons: The Indians, with 511 runs scored and 507 allowed, are the only team in the division with a positive run differential.

As Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune recently pointed out, it might be time for manager Ozzie Guillen to find a way to cram a little more Buehrle into the equation. The White Sox are 16-8 in Buehrle’s starts and 45-53 behind the rest of their rotation. If Guillen can squeeze an extra start or two from Buehrle by pitching him every fifth day, rather than every five or even six games, it might be worth considering.

But if the Sox can’t figure out a way to score more runs, rotational machinations are the least of their concerns. Winning the AL Central is going to be like toting a piano to the top of the Sears Tower.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

There are a few things to be said about a Sox-Indians game that had to go 14 innings to deliver an 8-7 result, not least that both teams still entertain hopes to contend in baseball’s most reliably combative division, the AL Central. While the Detroit Tigers notched another win in a Justin Verlander start and can now look forward to four days of playing back down to the level of their competition by trying to win as often as they lose, Cleveland and Chicago have to suffer through banging away at one another in this week’s series.

It’s better news still for the Kitties if what victories are won between the Sox and the Tribe are pyrrhic, and Tuesday’s result certainly looks like that sort of outcome. Because of the extra innings created by bad umpiring, worse outfield defense and Sergio Santos’ blown save in the ninth, both teams had to use their entire bullpens, with the Indians finally reaching into their rotation to plug in David Huff as their eighth reliever on the evening. This was not what the Indians traded for when they acquired Ubaldo Jimenez, but after receiving two bad starts in three, it’s what they have to show for the deal so far.

Even though the Sox delivered 22 hits, including five triples -- their most since the Black Sox were still on the field for the South Side back in 1920 -- the remarkable thing is that the game was a draining thing to get through to reach a decision, reflecting the mediocrity of the teams and the division.

For the Sox, a big part of the reason they’re struggling to be anything more than a .500 team is their offense. Dan Szymborski did a nifty piece a few weeks back for Insider on the lack of balance in the Tigers’ lineup, because Jim Leyland’s club was getting horribly subpar performance from several lineup slots. Now that we’re down to the season’s final six weeks, the White Sox have their rivals beat for imbalance, because while Paul Konerko’s delivering another down-ballot MVP campaign and Carlos Quentin’s enjoying a great comeback campaign, there are four lineup slots delivering awful offense. Consider what the Sox are getting from their second and third basemen, their center and left fielders, and Adam Dunn, the man sharing first base and DH duties with Konerko:



Using Alex Rios in center, Brent Morel at third, Gordon Beckham at second, Juan Pierre in left and Dunn if you consider him a DH, the only thing keeping the Sox from having MLB’s worst-hitting performers at three everyday lineup slots is Chone Figgins’ horrendous season for the Mariners at third base. Rarely has the cost for breaking in a pair of youngsters like Beckham and Morel been so steep, although three years and more than 1,300 plate appearances into his career, Becks has become a long-term investment as bad as most mortgages these days. Although the Sox aren’t the worst when it comes to scoring fewer runs than expected -- they've scored 16 fewer runs than expected, given their overall hitting numbers -- they’re close.

The irony is that in Tuesday’s game the Sox got performance out of their non-performers, a reminder that even the worst among the best ballplayers can play. Morel had his first-ever four-hit day; it took seven at-bats, but it counts. Beckham set himself up to score the winning run with a one-out double in the 14th -- which invited some boos from Sox fans greedily asking for a sixth triple, but it was enough. And Pierre was the man of the hour -- whether the second or sixth or both in Tuesday’s extended action -- after hitting a rare homer off Jimenez in the fourth, and decisively slapping the winning single to left. Even Rios chipped in, coming off the bench as a defensive replacement for Carlos Quentin and hitting one of the triples -- only to wind up stranded at third base.

Afterward, asked about the triple shower raining in the Indians’ outfield, Ozzie Guillen was unwilling to add insult to indignity for the opposition, pointing out prosaically enough that, “We advanced those runners, took advantage of those mistakes.” Well, sure they did, but between Shin-Soo Choo’s struggles in right and an obviously stretched Kosuke Fukudome tasked with center-field duties, the Sox got to put on a clinic of how to exploit a bad defense with balls in play.

Pierre took the outcome -- and his homer -- with good humor, noting that when he stepped up with Beckham and Morel aboard in the bottom of the 14th, he was wondering if any Ozzieball was in the offing, but, “I didn’t see the squeeze sign.” About his 16th career home run, he observed, “I can’t explain it. Not too many of them come off my bat. I was just trying to put it in play. Once -- and if -- I get to 20, we can start talking about 25.”

Pierre might also have sounded a bit like a stathead when he dispelled any notion that he’s doing anything differently in the second half while hitting .336/.369/.426. “I’m not trying to do too much. I’m not doing anything different. I’ve looked at the tape and I’m doing everything the same.”

So much for the hot hand if Pierre is just keepin’ on keeping on, but as a guy who lives and dies on ball-in-play outcomes, what would you expect? It’s the sound of the voice of experience talking about hitting the way he knows how after a long night.

Can the Sox fix their lineup-wide problem? Not easily or soon, which might help explain GM Kenny Williams’ glum outlook. Thanks to the gambles Williams has already taken, they’re stuck with Dunn and Rios through 2014 for more than $80 million combined. If Morel and Beckham don’t step up, the Sox won’t be getting much help from home-grown talent at pre-arbitration prices -- pushing the Sox toward free-agent fixes who might be no better than Dunn or Mark Teahen. Pierre is free agency-bound, but given his $8.5 million price tag for 2011, even offering him arbitration to potentially recoup draft picks would be a risk not worth running. That’s the wreckage of a win-now team that isn’t.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

An impartial observer might take a snapshot of the American League Central and conclude that the race is an exercise in wheel-spinning. But that’s not entirely correct: The four teams at the top just have no idea if they’re coming or going.

The Twins were treated to a combination wedgie and noogie in a 20-6 loss to Texas on Monday and are now 47-55. But they seem strangely resistant to entertaining offers for free agent-to-be Michael Cuddyer, a solid righty bat, terrific clubhouse guy and crafty situational reliever in blowouts who might net them a decent prospect haul in return. It’s nice to be loyal and cling to hope based on some recent fast finishes, but you have to wonder if Twins general manager Bill Smith is missing an opportunity to capitalize on a valuable asset here.

The Indians, who beat the Angels 3-2 on a walk-off single by rookie second baseman Jason Kipnis, have an AL Central-best run differential of plus-2. They began the season at 30-15, but injuries to Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore and an overall lack of lineup depth have stalled their momentum and left fans wondering when the magic ends and the reality check begins. Meanwhile, GM Chris Antonetti continues to look for a bat on a limited budget.

The White Sox, the American League’s answer to the enigmatic Reds, are always a stinker away from an Ozzie Guillen expletive-fest. And general manager Kenny Williams, a guy who lives to make waves at the trade deadline, seems genuinely conflicted. Amid rumors that he’s talking to St. Louis about a deal for young outfielder Colby Rasmus, Williams appeared on ESPN Radio in Chicago and said he might “turn over the entire roster’’ if the White Sox don’t make a move here shortly.

That leaves us with the division leaders in Detroit, where Justin Verlander might or might not have enough help in the rotation to get the Tigers to the postseason, and GM David Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland might or might not be on the spot with owner Mike Illitch in the final year of their contracts.

It was only fitting that when the Tigers and White Sox met in a big AL Central showdown Monday night at U.S. Celluar Field, all the division’s warts were on display. Between home runs by Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the Chicago crowd was treated to botched pop flies, a muffed pickoff, a near-collision between Juan Pierre and Alex Rios in the outfield and a wild pitch that careened off Pierzynski’s shinguard and was turned into an out at second base by reliever Jesse Crain.

The Tigers ran out four pitchers -- Duane Below, Chance Ruffin, Charlie Furbush and David Purcey -- with a combined 215 2/3 innings in the big leagues. The vast majority of those belong to Purcey. And White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, miracle of miracles, actually issued a leadoff walk in the fifth inning.

Is this any way to run a pennant race?

Take an informal survey of people in baseball front offices, and their predictions for the division generally fall along the same lines. Just about everyone favors Chicago’s pitching staff, but the White Sox are going to have a hard time winning if Adam Dunn (.159 batting average) and Rios (.301 slugging percentage, 23 RBIs) continue to look this pathetic at the plate. If Dunn plans to hit .200 this season, he better have some Ted Williams-caliber mashing in store for August and September.

Offensively, the Tigers win the Best in Show award. Detroit ranks fifth in the league in runs scored, and Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Victor Martinez all have an OPS north of .800.

The Tigers have been trolling for a front-end starter. But with Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields pretty much un-acquirable, they might have to stand pat or settle for a back-end guy to complement their top four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penny.

It could be worse: Scherzer, although up-and-down this season, has generated a swing-and-miss percentage of 9.3 -- better than Matt Cain, Jered Weaver and David Price. And Porcello has quietly gone 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in July. He’s still 22 years old, remember?

In a race this chaotic, the schedule can make a difference. While the Tigers are finished playing Boston and New York this season, the White Sox welcome the Red Sox and Yankees to Chicago for seven games starting Wednesday. As for the feisty Indians, they have 10 games against Boston, Texas and Detroit in early August. That’s their sink-or-swim stretch.

“It’s a weak division,’’ said a National League personnel man, “but I’ve liked the Tigers all year. Never underestimate a team with a good offense and an ace [starter]. You just don’t have long losing streaks.’’

And who cares about labels? Dunn can’t step to the plate these days without another out-of-town broadcaster referring to him as “the struggling Adam Dunn.’’ But as he told Yahoo! Sports in a recent interview, he still enjoys playing, “Even though I suck.’’

Say this for the Big Donkey: He’s come to the right place.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

“Just stay positive”
--Ozzie Guillen on Twitter, April 21

“Great time the best thing we no talk about baseball”
--Ozzie Guillen, April 25

“Iam in very very bad mood stay away from me the most you can”
--Ozzie Guillen, June 7

It hasn’t been the most enjoyable season for White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. On May 6, the team stood 11-22 after struggling through a 4-18 stretch that included several bullpen implosions. They clawed back to 42-42 and 43-43, but after losing 4-2 against Royals rookie Danny Duffy on Tuesday night, the White Sox are 47-50.

Of course, in the AL Central, that means they’re in the thick of the pennant race. Which is remarkable considering:

• Adam Dunn is hitting .158. That’s not a misprint. Yes, he draws some walks and has hit a few home runs. HE’S HITTING .158! Believe it or not, that wouldn’t be a major league record for a hitter who received at least 300 plate appearances. Bill Bergen hit .139 for the 1909 Brooklyn Superbas. Bergen is, quite simply, the worst hitter in major league history to have any kind of significant career. He had three extra-base hits in 346 at-bats that year and hit .170 in his 11-year career. The point is it’s not a good thing to be mentioned in the same breath as Bill Bergen … especially if you’re a designated hitter making $12 million.

• Alex Rios has a worse OPS than Dunn. Yes, he’s worse than the guy having one of the worst seasons ever. And Rios hit fifth in the lineup on Tuesday. I don’t know whether to laugh at Ozzie or cry with him over a beer. Oh, Rios is making $12.5 million this season. And you thought Cubs fans had it bad.

• Rookie third baseman Brent Morel entered the season with high hopes. He’s hitting .240 with one home run and three walks in over 200 at-bats. His OPS is lower than Rios’.

• Top starter John Danks began the season 0-8 without a win in his first 11 starts and is now on the DL with an oblique strain.

So what’s it mean? I’m picking the White Sox to win the AL Central, of course.

Call me stubborn. I picked the Sox at the start of the season.

OK, five reasons they can win the Central:

1. They have the best rotation in the division. The Twins actually have a slightly better rotation ERA, but once you adjust for the homer-friendly confines of the Cell, the White Sox have the best rotation. Detroit may have the best one starter, but Justin Verlander is the only starter they have with an ERA under 4.40. Chicago’s rotation depth will prove key as the season winds down.

2. Once Danks returns from the DL, they have six starters. Edwin Jackson is rumored to be on the trading block. He’s a free agent after the season (as is Mark Buehrle), so he may not bring back much. But maybe the Sox could find a match with another contender and get a hitter with an average above .158 or on-base percentage above .260.

3. The bullpen is deep and solid. The bullpen ERA was 3.36 entering Tuesday, fifth in the AL. The Indians were 3.29 and the Tigers 4.78. But I like Chicago’s power arms: 258 strikeouts in 254 innings, versus Cleveland’s 224 in 276 2/3 innings. Indians closer Chris Perez’s poor 23/18 strikeout/walk ratio is a warning sign (as I mentioned when he was selected to the All-Star team) and he’s allowed runs in three of his past four appearances, drawing two losses in the process.

4. Paul Konerko is raking. He’s not Jose Bautista or Adrian Gonzalez, but he gives the White Sox one of the best hitters in the league. And in 2011, with a deep pitching staff and two hitters like Konerko and Carlos Quentin, you just may be able to score enough runs.

5. It’s the AL Central!

OK, look, there’s no way Dunn, Rios and Morel will continue to be this bad. They’ll either play better or Ozzie will start playing other guys. Otherwise we’ll soon see a tweet like this:

“Moving Juan Pierre to fifth hole. Don’t laugh hes one of our best hitters.”
--Ozze Guillen, July 29

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Carl Crawford isn't going to hit .156 all season. Adrian Gonzalez will hit home runs. But here are five legitimate issues that teams predicted to be contenders are facing right now.

1. Cardinals closer. Ryan Franklin lost the job with two losses, four blown saves and four home runs allowed in eight innings. The Cardinals lost all four of those games, so they could easily be 17-7 now instead of 13-11. Mitchell Boggs became the closer, saved three games, and then picked up a blown save and a loss Tuesday night in Houston. Eduardo Sanchez, a 22-year-old rookie, picked up the save Wednesday night, although in dubious fashion by allowing two runs. Despite all this, the Cardinals are in first place with the second-best run differential in the majors, thanks to an offense that leads the NL in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. In the end, I actually think Tony La Russa will sort things out. Boggs has a 15/3 SO/BB ratio in 12 2/3 innings, Sanchez has a 14/1 ratio and Fernando Salas and Jason Motte are also pitching well.

2. Francisco Liriano. As bad as Minnesota's offense has been (only the Padres have scored fewer runs), I'm just as worried about Liriano, so good a year ago but struggling with his control in 2011 (18 walks in 23 2/3 innings). There were trade rumors surrounding Liriano in spring training, which makes you wonder if the Twins had concerns about his health. His average fastball velocity is down from 93.7 to 92.1, which isn't a major concern ... for now. Considering the state of their offense, the Twins need Liriano to return to ace-like production.

3. Miguel Tejada and the Giants defense. Make what you want of defensive metrics, but logic tells you the Giants have issues on defense: old man Tejada at shortstop, pondering Pat Burrell in left, Andres Torres on the DL, not-exactly-Brooks Robinson Pablo Sandoval at third, and Aubrey Huff, who was moved back to first base after his adventures in right field. Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) has the Giants as the third-worst defensive team so far (although it grades Sandoval well at third). Considering Tejada isn't hitting either, how long will the Giants stick with him?

4. The Rangers bullpen. Darren O'Day just landed on the 60-day DL with a torn labrum in his hip. Even when Neftali Feliz returns from the DL, there could be issues. The pen has compiled a 4.02 ERA, 24th in the majors so far, but I point to a mediocre 44/30 SO/BB ratio as a sign that this pen is treading a fine line. Throw in the ages of Darren Oliver and Arthur Rhodes and you have another red flag. And while much has been made about Nolan Ryan urging Rangers starters to work deeper into games, the reality was Texas starters were just 11th in the AL in innings pitched in 2010. They'll need a deep and effective bullpen.

5. White Sox on-base percentage. Everybody has been focused on the Sox' bullpen problems, but I'm wondering if the Chicago offense is overrated. Yes, the Sox will hit plenty of long balls, but how many of those will be solo home runs? Juan Pierre, A.J. Pierzynski and Alexei Ramirez are notorious non-walkers and rookie third baseman Brent Morel has yet to draw a free pass. Oddly, Alex Rios isn't hitting (.163, no homers), but has 10 walks.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

For a little fun, we're going to start rolling out the 2011 SweetSpot preseason divisional All-Stars. Disagree? Make your arguments below and we'll pull out some of the best comments for a future post.

So, presenting the SweetSpot 2011 preseason AL Central All-Stars (horns sounding in background) ...

Catcher -- Joe Mauer, Twins. Mauer had an .871 OPS last year. Carlos Santana had an .868 OPS. Yes, Santana may be that good.

First base -- Miguel Cabrera, Tigers. Through age 27, Cabrera is 12th all time in home runs and fifth all time in RBIs (behind only Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Alex Rodriguez and Joe DiMaggio). He had his best season in 2010 as pitchers grew weary of facing him (32 intentional walks after just 20 combined his first two years in Detroit). He’s as lethal as any hitter in the game not named Pujols (and may be his equal). We all know his personal demons and hope he avoids those issues.

Second base -- Gordon Beckham, White Sox. After a slow start, hit .310/.380/.497 in the second half. Expect numbers more akin to his rookie season, giving him the nod in a weak group.

Third base -- Mike Aviles, Royals. Ladies and gentleman, your 2011 Royals MVP!

Shortstop – Alexei Ramirez, White Sox. He is what he is, and what he is isn’t so bad. He still hacks at everything in the Central time zone, but he puts the ball, has some pop and plays a pretty good shortstop.

Left field -- Delmon Young, Twins. Unless you like Ryan Raburn, which maybe I do. By the way, Young finished 10th in the AL MVP voting, even though he had a .333 OBP, grounded into 16 double plays and played left field like he was trying out for “Wipeout.”

Center field – Alex Rios, White Sox. I don’t exactly feel good about this selection, as I expect Austin Jackson to regress a bit at the plate and who knows what to expect from Grady Sizemore.

Right field – Shin-Soo Choo, Indians. The easiest selection on the board. Baseball’s most underrated player.

Designated hitter – Adam Dunn, White Sox. The White Sox hit 111 home runs at home last season, 66 on the road. Their pitchers allowed 22 more home runs at home. I think Mr. Dunn will enjoy U.S. Cellular Field. And Royals pitching. (Sorry, too easy.)

Right-handed starter – Justin Verlander, Tigers. A steady diet of heat has worked pretty well through the years. Now I'm going to point out a stat that I want to preface by saying, yes, wins can be overrated for pitchers. Must of us know that by now. But since his rookie season in 2006, Verlander is third in the majors in wins with 83, behind Roy Halladay (90) and CC Sabathia (88).

Left-handed starter – John Danks, White Sox. Francisco Liriano had a terrific season for the Twins, but he’s always a risky proposition. If Choo is the most underrated hitter, I think Danks is the most underrated pitcher: three straight solid years despite being a flyball pitcher working in a home run park.

Closer – Joakim Soria, Royals. Matt Thornton moves into the closer role for Chicago and Joe Nathan is back, but Soria has averaged 38 saves and allowed a .201 average the past three seasons.

Overall, a pretty uninspiring group. The Tigers, White Sox and Twins are all projected to rank in the top 11 in the majors in payroll, so you can’t completely excuse the AL Central for playing cheap with the handouts. The AL Central went 83-103 against the East in 2010 and no team had a winning record. Somebody will have to do better if the Central wants to claim a wild-card spot this season.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Improbably enough, the Dodgers have unloaded Juan Pierre. Because, you know, the White Sox didn't already have enough questionable outfielders. Anyway, whatever happens there should be some good fodder for the jokesters. Big League Stew:

The trade, however, also opens the door for a lot of great nicknames for the South Siders' outfield when it happens to be comprised of Pierre, former Los Angeles teammate Andruw Jones and expensive Blue Jays castoff Alex Rios. "The Discounted", "The Ned Colletti Memorial Outfield" and "Where's Vernon Wells (notes) When You Need Him?" happen to be my early favorites. (Feel free to submit your favorite nicknames below.)

All three outfielders were previously signed to big money contracts that they didn't live up to, though the White Sox are only responsible for the full weight of Rios' deal. If Rios and fourth musketeer Carlos Quentin don't live up to their potential, there will be a lot of room for ridicule -- particularly from a North Side fanbase that already had its fill of Pierre.

As for the Dodgers, Colletti was able to turn Pierre's Ramirez-replacement stint last summer into a maneuver that got rid of half a $18 million bench player. The return might not be that great, but it's sadly all about small penny-pinching victories for Colletti these days.

Hey, this could work.

What's more likely is that the White Sox will have one of the ugliest outfields in the American League. Rios is coming off a lousy season, while Pierre has zero power and Jones doesn't look anything like the player who was, just three years ago, heading for the Hall of Fame.

Throw in Carlos Quentin, and Kenny Williams has collected four outfielders who have been good in one of the last two seasons, but not in both. Like I said, this could work ...

And on the South Side, still they wait ...

General manager Ken Williams said [Jake] Peavy won't start on Sept. 3 in a make-up game with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field because Williams doesn't want Peavy risking injury by batting and possibly running the bases. Therefore, the most likely scenario -- if Peavy continues his rehab without incident -- is Peavy pitching against the Boston Red Sox during the series at U.S. Cellular Field between Sept. 4-7.

OK. Let's assume that all goes according to plan and Peavy pitches on the 4th against the Red Sox (and by the way, thanks for the easy American League baptism). If that goes well and Peavy doesn't suffer any setbacks, he would eventually start five games for the White Sox this season. Five games started by a pitcher who cost the White Sox a quartet of young players, at least two of whom are considered real prospects.

Doesn't seem like enough, does it?

But that's just this year. Jake Peavy quite likely will not make a difference this season. Oh, it's possible. But you don't trade four young players to boost your chances of winning the division by two or three percent. He might, on the other hand, make a difference next season. Or the season after that. Or the season after that. Because Peavy's locked up through 2012.

Same goes for Alex Rios. So far, the (really) early returns aren't good, as he's hit even worse for the White Sox than he did for the Blue Jays. Again, though, we won't be able to judge this deal for a while yet. Granted, the Sox didn't actually give up anyone to get Rios. They merely had to assume more than $60 million in contract obligations, and Rios is now theirs through 2014 or '15, if they want him.

Frankly, I'm not wild about either move. But it's fascinating to watch Kenny Williams playing the long game when most general managers of contending clubs are playing, in the middle of the summer, a short game.

Joe Posnanski has some fun with the worst contracts in baseball, all building up to this big finish:

1. Vernon Wells (Toronto Blue Jays). Cot's Baseball Contracts - the incredibly awesome site where I got these numbers from - is one of my favorite Internet stops. And on occasion, just for fun, I will go to the site just to look up Vernon Wells' contract. I don't know why. It gives me hope, somehow. It tells me that in this world, anything is possible. It tells me that good things happen, funny things, unexpected things. Don't tell me that I won't win the lottery ... just look at Vernon Wells' contract.

In 2011, Vernon Wells will get paid $23 million. No. Really. He will get paid $23 million.

In 2012, he will have to take a paycut and will only get $21 million. Same in 2013. And same again in 2014.

This isn't a baseball contract. This is a testament to the power of mankind to do the impossible.

Oh, Vernon Wells also has a full no-trade clause in his contract. Well, sure, why not? Then, what difference would it make? This is the most untradable contract in the history of the world. Vernon Wells turns 31 this year. The Dewan has him a minus-29 centerfielder, which means he's exactly as bad defensively as you can be while a manager who is still breathing allows you to play centerfield. He has an 85 OPS+. He has a lifetime .329 on-base percentage. He's slugging .408. He is third in the American League in making outs. So he has that going for him.

And it never made sense. Ever. Wells had a very good year in 2003 (and he was a very good fielder then), a couple of OK years, a good year in 2006 at age 27. But he never got on base much, and he was inconsistent, and ... then the Blue Jays gave him this hysterical contract.

This deal, to be honest, is not the sort of thing that leads to a general manager getting fired. It's the sort of thing that leads to entire villages getting pillaged. And that's what I mean about Ricciardi. I mean, this contract alone should be enough to put him in the Bad Contract Hall of Fame. But when you look over the whole body of work ... he is the Bad Contract Hall of Fame.

In fact, really, we should just start referring to bad baseball contracts as "Ricciardis.”

There does seem to be a pattern here, right?

Posnanski mentions the other contracts: B.J. Ryan, Frank Thomas, and Alex Rios. I didn't like any of these deals when they happened -- at least, I don't believe I did; you can probably check if you like -- but I didn't think any of them were disastrous, and in fact the Rios deal looked just fine until this season. And if the Rios contract is lousy, it's the White Sox who will have to suffer most of the lousiness.

No, it's really just Vernon Wells' contract that's a disaster, for all the reasons Posnanski so stylishly lists. Is that contract Ricciardi's fault, though?

A couple of comments under Posnanski's post:

You might well consider the fact that Ricciardi didn't have final say on the Wells contract; it's widely understood that decision was made by then-team president Paul Godfrey & ownership, not the GM. So while JP deserves some of the blame, it's not really fair to dump it all on him.

********

There's really no way anyone can defend the Wells deal. As someone who lives in Toronto, I've read that Ricciardi didn't want to give Wells that deal. Ownership did, to save face after Carlos Delgado left town. The Jays couldn't possibly let Wells walk, for optics.

Only a few dozen people in Toronto know the absolute truth, but I can tell you that many dozens of stupid things have been done, just in the last decade or so, over the objections of the general manager. Often, it's because owners consider themselves the public face of their franchises and just can't handle the criticism that would come with letting popular players leave.

Does this absolve the general manager, completely? No. Among the general manager's many and sundry chores -- and one of the most important -- is convincing his boss to avoid terribly stupid decisions, and Ricciardi seems, at best, to have failed at this chore. Still, that doesn't mean that he is stupid, or even generally ineffective.

Of course, there's more. He seems to have botched the Halladay Affair this summer. More damningly, Ricciardi's been running the show for seven seasons and the Blue Jays have essentially been a .500 team. In the meantime they've been passed -- and are about to be lapped -- by the Rays. At this point, maybe he's just the right guy in the wrong place.

Boy. Talk about your salary dump:

Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios has been claimed off waivers by the Chicago White Sox, sending him to a contending team and giving Toronto financial flexibility.

Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi announced the move Monday night, about 30 minutes before the Blue Jays were scheduled to play the New York Yankees. Rios was in the initial starting lineup when he learned the news.

Toronto did not receive any compensation for the two-time All-Star, who is batting .264 with 14 homers and 62 RBIs in 108 games.

The 28-year-old Rios signed a seven-year contract with the Blue Jays in April 2008 that guarantees him $69,835,000.

Of that $69,835,000, Rios still has roughly $64 million coming to him through the 2014 season.

Essentially, the White Sox are making a large bet that Rios is the player we saw in 2007 and 2008 -- when he was worth roughly $20 million per season -- rather than the player we've seen in 2009, when he's been worth less than half that.

As you know, absent injuries and age, players typically find their true levels eventually, and Rios' true level is better than the level he's displayed over the last four months.

I think the White Sox are probably right. I just wonder how right they'll look in 2013 and '14.