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The shocking thing about Albert Pujols' start, of course, is that if any player seemed immune to a slump it was him.

After all, this is player who ranks eighth all time in career adjusted OPS, behind seven guys named Ruth, Williams, Bonds, Gehrig, Hornsby, Mantle and Brouthers. (Well, maybe you don't know that last guy. That's Dan Brouthers, who played in the 19th century). Pujols never had a bad month. OK, he did twice hit under .250 in a month -- July of 2001, his rookie season, when he hit .241 but still hit four home runs and had a .793 OPS; and last April, when he hit .245 but slugged seven home runs.

But we're now 24 games into the season and Pujols is homerless with a feeble .208/.255/.292 line. I broke down his issues last week, but I wanted to take another approach. Have other all-time great hitters ever gone through a similar spell while still in their prime seasons? I examined seven of the best post-World War II hitters to see.

Stan Musial
April 15-June 12, 1947: 44 games, .202/.298/.345, 5 HR, 23 BB, 13 SO
Musial didn't quite have the power of Pujols but did top 30 home runs six times. Not surprisingly for a guy who hit .300 for the first 16 seasons of his career, he didn't suffer many dry spells. As it turns out, even his slow start in 1947 was caused by bad health -- appendicitis and tonsillitis.

Willie Mays
April 17-May 13, 1956: 22 games, .209/.303/.384, 3 HR, 11 BB, 8 SO
Mays actually went through a few slumps in his career, unusual for hitters of his caliber. Here's one from the start of the 1956 season. Through 42 games he still had just four home runs. Good news for Angels fans: Mays still finished with 36 home runs as he hit six home runs in both June and July, nine in August and 11 in September.

July 3-Aug. 3, 1958: 30 games, .250/.356/.313, 0 HR, 19 BB, 10 SO
Mays went through a long homerless drought in 1958. Before the drought, he missed two games while hospitalized with fatigue. In fact, going back to May, Mays would hit just three home runs over a 65-game stretch. One big difference between this slump and Pujols' slump: Mays had 19 walks and 10 strikeouts while Pujols has six walks and 14 strikeouts. He'd finish the year hitting .347 with 29 home runs.

May 28-June 25, 1959: 27 games, .265/.318/.367, 1 HR, 8 BB, 8 SO
According James Hirsch's "Willie Mays: The Life, the Legend," Mays battled a couple injuries during his span. On June 1, a home-plate collision with Del Rise left him with bruised shins. Rice broke his leg on the play and Mays left the game. Three days later, Mays hurt his shoulder in another home-plate collision. He played for a few days after that but then missed five games, available only to pinch-hit.

Aug. 28-Sept. 30, 1960: 32 games, .288/.343/.400, 0 HR, 9 BB, 10 SO
Mays hit .319 with 20 home runs in 1960, but only a home run on the final day of the season prevented a homerless September. Still, he managed to hit .288 during this power drought.

April 22-May 15, 1963: 22 games, .244/.330/.329, 1 HR, 11 BB, 10 SO
Now 32 -- the same age as Pujols -- Mays appeared to have just had a slow stretch soon after the season began. He'd still finish with a .314 average and 38 home runs and finish fifth in the MVP vote. Best-case scenario for Pujols?

June 24-July 31, 1965: 22 games, .223/.289/301, 2 HR, 10 BB, 11 SO
One final slump for Mays, but this one was another injury-related one. According to Hirsch's book, Mays pulled groin muscle on June 30 and then bruised his thigh and hip in a home-plate collision on July 10 that forced him to leave the game. Nonetheless, he'd still end up with one of his greatest seasons: a career-high 52 home runs and his second MVP trophy.

Hank Aaron
June 1-June 25, 1956: 28 games, .227/.277/.327, 1 HR, 8 BB, 10 SO
Few players matched the Aaron's consistency. This was just his second full season, still 22 years old. He'd end up winning the batting title that year with a .328 mark.

April 25-May 28, 1958: 31 games, .208/.288/.320 1 HR, 14 BB, 14 SO
Despite this dry spell, Aaron would finish at .326 with 30 home runs.

May 2-June 9, 1968: 32 games, .179/.268/.325, 3 HR, 16 BB, 15 SO
Aaron was 34 by now and 1968 was the famous Year of the Pitcher. Aaron would recover to hit .287 with 29 home runs -- big numbers for that season, as he ranked fifth in the NL in home runs.

Barry Bonds
April 8-May 19, 1991: 31 games, .182/.272/.255, 2 HR, 14 BB, 21 SO

I checked Bonds from 1990 to 1999, and this was the only bad stretch he had. It was likely caused by a bruised thumb that did force him to miss four games in early April and took time to heal.

July 28-Sept. 1, 1995: 33 games, .208/.386/.396, 4 HR, 28 BB, 25 SO
Here's another low-average stretch for Bonds, but even then he hit a few home runs and drew 28 walks in 33 games. Again, that's one big problem Pujols is having: his walk rate has declined significantly.

Manny Ramirez
Sept. 1995: .247/.314/.333, 1 HR in 24 games
Not too many bad months for Ramirez. This one came at the end of his first full season in the majors.

April 2007: 24 games, .202/.314/.315, 2 HR, 15 BB, 15 SO
Another slow stretch. Ramirez would finish with a .296 average and 20 home runs in 133 games.

Alex Rodriguez
Sept. 1999: .183, but seven home runs
June 1-June 26, 2006: 22 games, .213/.351/.325, 2 HR, 15 BB, 24 SO
July 26-August 20, 2010: 20 games, .195/.241/.416, 5 HR, 5 BB, 18 SO

A-Rod has had a few low-average periods in his career, but has usually kept his power intact. That poor 2010 stretch includes various ailments -- hip flexor tendinitis, a bruised shin and a strained calf muscle.

Miguel Cabrera
August 2007: .229/.345/.448, five home runs

Cabrera has essentially been slump-proof so far. This is the worst month on his record and it was still a big spike compared to what Pujols has done.

Why does this all mean? I guess there is enough anecdotal evidence here that even superstar hitters in the prime (or very near their prime) can still have rough stretches for 20-plus games. Look, Pujols isn't going to turn into a .220 hitter overnight. Yes, he's undoubtedly hit into some bad luck so far. Maybe like Willie Mays in 1963 or 1965 he can suffer through this slump and still put up MVP numbers. Hey, it's one reason we watch. Because we don't really know, do we?

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

To much fanfare and with exceedingly high expectations, the Washington Nationals called up Bryce Harper over the weekend. He went 2-for-6 with a double, a walk, a strikeout and a sac fly, although the Nationals lost both games. In his first game, he hustled to first base on a comebacker to the mound in his first at-bat, doubled and flipped his helmet in the seventh inning, unleashed a great throw from left field, put the Nationals ahead with a sacrifice fly in the ninth, and made a nice catch while crashing into the wall in center field in his second game.

Nothing wrong with that start, which began with Dodgers fans giving him a loud chorus of boos. Already the villain, it seems, which is certainly unfair to a 19-year-old kid. While the Nationals were desperate for some offense -- running out past-their-prime veterans like Xavier Nady and Mark DeRosa probably wasn't a good plan to begin with -- a rash of injuries forced the front office to call up Harper sooner than they probably wanted. As former Mets general manager Jim Duquette said on MLB Network Radio, you want guys to earn their promotion. Harper has just 534 plate appearances in the minor leagues, which isn't necessarily the issue; Ken Griffey Jr. had just 552 when he debuted with the Mariners at 19. The issue is Harper hasn't hit much in his limited exposure above Class A, especially against left-handers. The fear, it can be argued, is that if he struggles in the major leagues, it will harm his development.

I don't see it. If the kid is this good, I don't see a bad stretch doing irreparable harm to his long-term future. If Harper doesn't turn into a big star, it won't be because he was called up too soon.

An obvious comparison is Alex Rodriguez. He was first called up in July of 1994, a few weeks before his 19th birthday. A-Rod played 17 games, had 59 plate appearances, hit .204 and struck out 20 times while drawing just three walks. The next season, he spent more time in the majors and hit .232/.264/.408 with an awful 42/6 strikeout/walk ratio. Despite those two periods where major league pitchers destroyed him, his confidence and talent won out. In 1996, still just 20 years old at the start of the season, Rodriguez hit .358 with 36 home runs.

Now, it's unfair to compare Harper to Rodriguez, of course. So here's another one: Jim Thome had just turned 21 when called up in 1991. He hit .255/.298/.367 with one home run in 27 games that September. He struggled again the next year, hitting .205 with two home runs in 131 plate appearances. He ended up spending most of 1993 in the minors as well. He turned out OK.

It's probably unfair to even compare Harper to Thome, only one of the best power/on-base machines in the game's history. Harper is a better athlete than Thome, but his raw power is similar. OK, how about Justin Upton? He was still 19 when he made his debut in 2007. He hit .221/.283/.364 with 11 walks and 37 strikeouts in 152 plate appearances that season. It would seem to me that Upton is a good comp, a guy who showed steady development and turned into an MVP candidate in his age-23 season.

There are hopes that Harper will be even better than that. His destiny remains unknown. I just don't believe a few bad weeks -- if that's what happens -- will affect his ultimate path.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

On a packed Friday Baseball Today podcast with Mark Simon we exchanged thoughts on many pertinent topics, from struggling players to a weekend preview to former All-Star Jason Dickson (yep, he was an All-Star!).

1. From Thursday, was Zack Greinke really that bad, should Matt Garza have gotten the chance to finish his gem and what did the middle of the Twins order do that was so rare?

2. We take an in-depth look at the weekend schedule, with Albert Pujols at Yankee Stadium the headliner, but also it’s always about the Red Sox and which pitchers could be next to throw no-hitters?

3. When can we really start looking at sample sizes in baseball? Mark talks to a former manager and we each share thoughts.

4. Is there a legitimate statistical concern for Jose Reyes and Alex Rodriguez? Mark thinks so!

5. Our emailers have opinions on the quality starts stat, bunting, Dusty Baker’s style and much more!

So download and listen to Friday’s expertly produced Baseball Today podcast (by Frank Dale!) and please have a great weekend. Sunday night baseball is Angels-Yankees!

This is what will have American League pitchers and managers waking up in cold sweats all season long: Those stretches when Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both raking, eyes bulging as they pummel meaty fastballs over fences and into outfield seats.

Josh Beckett become the first pitcher to experience these forces of nature in action, as both hit two home runs off him in Detroit's 10-0 victory Saturday over Boston. Fielder hit one out to left field and a low, screaming bullet to right for his pair. Going the opposite way is nothing new for him; 11 of his 38 home runs in 2011 went to left or left-center. There were some concerns that Fielder would lose a few home runs moving from Miller Park to the more spacious environs of Comerica, so hitting one out to left is a good, early sign.

How dynamic is this pair? A season ago, Fielder hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 home runs; Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 with 30 home runs. The last team with two players to hit 30 home runs with a .400 OBP? The 2006 Red Sox with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Twelve teams since 2000 have had such a duo (or in the case of the 2004 Cardinals, three players):

2006 Red Sox: Ramirez, Ortiz
2005 Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi
2004 Cardinals: Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen
2003 Yankees: Giambi, Jorge Posada
2002 Astros: Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman
2001 Rockies: Todd Helton, Larry Walker
2001 Cardinals: Pujols, Edmonds
2000 Cardinals: Edmonds, Mark McGwire
2000 Angels: Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus
2000 Astros: Bagwell, Moises Alou
2000 Mariners: Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez
2000 Giants: Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent

Of course, all of those pairs or threesomes did this during the high-offense steroids period. Six other teammates did it between 1995 and 1999. But before that? That previous team to have two such players was the 1969 Oakland A's with Reggie Jackson and Sal Bando. Throughout baseball history there have been only 34 such pairs. Here's another way to do this. Let's add OPS+ (adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage) as a third measuring stick. OPS+ adjusts a player's offensive production for home park and era. In 2011, Cabrera's OPS+ was 181, second in the American League. Fielder's was 164, fourth in the National League. Let's set a minimum of 30 home runs, .400 OBP and 150 OPS+.

This takes away some of steroids-era pairs and leaves us with 24 such teammates in baseball history. And six of those 24 were Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.

And that, my readers, is the kind of company Cabrera and Fielder have the chance to join.

A few more notes from today's early games:

• Beckett served up five home runs, sending waves of sweats and swears throughout Red Sox Nation. He became just the fourth pitcher to allow five homers twice in his career, joining Tim Wakefield, Pat Hentgen and Jeff Weaver. Gordon Edes had a good piece on Beckett before his season debut, detailing his motivation for 2012. Beckett is a bit of an enigma, a guy usually viewed as an ace due to his postseason heroics with the Red Sox in 2007 and Marlins in 2003. But the facts also don't lie: He's finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA only twice, including last season with a 2.89 mark. Beckett has been homer-prone at various stages of his career, most notably in his first season with Boston, in 2006, when he gave up 36. It's only one start, of course, but considering the spring training thumb injury he insisted wasn't an injury, it puts Beckett on the early "keep an eye on him" watch list.
• Angels manager Mike Scioscia picked Game No. 2 to get disgruntled Bobby Abreu in the lineup, putting Abreu in left and moving Vernon Wells to center, sitting defensive whiz Peter Bourjos in the process. "I'm not calling this a day off for Peter, it's the second game, but it's a combination of that and trying to get some left-handed bats in the lineup," Scioscia told Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. I can't imagine a more defensively challenged outfield pair than those two. Unable to see this game since I had the Red Sox-Tigers game as my local Fox broadcast, I tweeted Angels and Royals fans to ask how many of the 11 hits Dan Haren allowed fell just out of their reach. The consensus seemed to be two or three, although @dblesky wrote, "There were really only a couple. And one was glaring." It will be interesting to see how often Scioscia runs out this lineup, essentially to placate Abreu. I just don't see the Angels being a better team with that alignment and Bourjos on the bench.
• Zack Greinke had a dominant effort in the Brewers' 6-0 shutout over the Cardinals, allowing three hits in seven innings with no walks and seven strikeouts. I wrote this before the game, but here's why Greinke is a good Cy Young pick. Especially impressive were Greinke's economical 91 pitches.
• Tweet of the day after Daniel Hudson and the Diamondbacks beat the Giants for the second consecutive game:
  

  Good way to start the season. Two mistakes and I paid for it. But a win is a win. #sweepthegiants tomorrow! #GoDbacks
  
  — Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) April 7, 2012

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

Courtesy of Craig Calcaterra at the Hardball Talk blog, a link to Will Leitch's GQ interview with Bryce Harper. First, great photo of Harper. Second: If it's not already clear, it's becoming more obvious that Harper is going to be one of the game's most divisive figures over the next decade.

Baseball, by its nature, is a humbling sport. Hitters deal with failure a majority of their at-bats. Pitchers can make a perfect pitch and surrender home runs or pitch a gem and lose 2-1. The culture of the game almost demands players keep their cockiness to themselves; the long grind of the season means there will be times you slump and struggle no matter your ability. That tends to keep the chest thumping and displays of success rather muted. (The rare Rickey Henderson or Pascual Perez not withstanding.) Not that a little added confidence isn't a good thing. As Crash Davis tells Nuke LaLoosh in "Bull Durham," "You be cocky and arrogant, even when you're getting beat. That's the secret. You gotta play this game with fear and arrogance."

Right now, Harper doesn't have the fear, which is a refreshing change. He's still a brash young kid who believes he can become one of the best ever. He's interesting. We want to watch him and see what he does. As Craig writes on his blog, "If he lives up to the hype -- or even comes close to living up to it -- he’s going to be one of the most astounding things the game has ever seen. Pete Rose meets Muhammad Ali, maybe."

I imagine Alex Rodriguez is maybe the most disliked player in the majors right now, which I've never understood. Sure, he makes a lot of money and admitted to using PEDs (many would consider that apology an admirable character trait), but the thing about Rodriguez is he's actually rather boring in a love/hate sense. He's an easy guy to take cheap shots at -- the muscular girlfriends, the shirtless photos and the like -- but those things don't make him unlikeable in my book. But for the most part, A-Rod plays baseball and doesn't really say anything interesting.

Harper seems like he'll be different. In fact, while Craig mentioned Pete Rose, Harper reminds me more of Reggie Jackson, the self-professed "straw that stirs the drink." The Jackson analogy even extends to the field. Like Reggie (who played football at Arizona State), Harper is an athletic right fielder who certainly doesn't get cheated on his swing. Like Reggie, the biggest issue with his game might be the strikeouts (Reggie is still the all-time leader).

One thing about Reggie, however: He did, believe it or not, have a small dosage of humility. "When you've played this game for 10 years and gone to bat 7000 times and gotten 2000 hits, do you know what that really means?" Reggie once said. "It means you've gone zero for 5000."

If he's to reach his potential, I believe that's something Harper will eventually learn.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

In 1975, Joe Morgan hit .327 with 17 home runs and 94 RBIs. Those traditional statistics may not seem impressive, but Morgan’s season ranks as one of the best in the game’s history.

As we begin voting Monday on the greatest individual season of all time, consider Morgan's value that season:

• He drew 132 walks, giving him a league-leading .466 on-base percentage (the highest figure, by the way, in either league between Mickey Mantle in 1962 and Wade Boggs in 1988).
• Because of his ability to get on base, he created a lot of runs --about 145, 17 more than the No. 2 hitter in the league, Greg Luzinski. But he created his runs in an efficient manner. He used up 354 outs; Luzinski, by comparison, used up 443 outs. So Morgan created more runs while using up 89 fewer outs.
• He stole 67 bases in 77 attempts. Factor in his speed, and he was one of the best baserunners in the league.
• He was an outstanding defensive second baseman, not only winning a Gold Glove but also ranking as the third-best overall defensive player in the National League in 1975, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
• He did all this in an era when second basemen usually produced little at the plate. In 1975, National League second basemen hit a collective .267/.330/.353 (BA/OBP/SLG) -- with just 80 home runs. Morgan hit nearly one quarter of all home runs by National League second basemen. In 2011 terms, that would be akin to a second baseman hitting close to 50 home runs.
• The Reds won 108 games, Morgan was the near-unanimous MVP winner, and he even drove in the winning run in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series.

Add it up, and you end up with a player who was the best hitter in the league and one of the best defenders and baserunners in his league, and he did so while towering over other players at his position and playing on a championship team.

The wins above replacement statistic attempts to capture all this. In 1975, Morgan’s Baseball-Reference WAR was 12.0, the best of his career and easily the best in the National League. During his 1972 to 1976 peak, Morgan rated as the best player in the NL four times, at least acording to Baseball-Reference.



In 1975, Morgan was a full five wins better than Mike Schmidt, an astonishing total. Only 12 times since 1901 has a player recorded a bWAR of at least 4.5 wins higher than the No. 2 position player in his league:

1921 AL: Babe Ruth (14.0) over Ty Cobb/Tris Speaker (6.6)
1924 AL: Babe Ruth (11.9) over Harry Heilmann (6.2)
1956 AL: Mickey Mantle (12.9) over Yogi Berra (7.3)
2002 NL: Barry Bonds (12.2) over Jim Edmonds (7.2)
1975 NL: Joe Morgan (12.0) over Mike Schmidt (7.0)
1924 NL: Rogers Hornsby (13.0) over Frankie Frisch (8.0)
1967 AL: Carl Yastrzemski (12.2) over Al Kaline (7.3)
1946 AL: Ted Williams (11.8) over Johnny Pesky (6.9)
1923 AL: Babe Ruth (14.7) over Harry Heilmann (9.8)
1926 AL: Babe Ruth (12.0) over Goose Goslin (7.2)
1922 NL: Rogers Hornsby (10.7) over Dave Bancroft (5.9)
1948 NL: Stan Musial (11.5) over Johnny Mize (6.9)

For what it’s worth, only three of those 12 seasons ended in a World Series title -- Morgan, Mantle and Ruth in 1923.

So maybe Joe Morgan didn’t hit 73 home runs or drive in 191 runs or bat .400. But his 1975 season ranks as sleeper candidate for greatest individual season of all time.

* * * *

It wasn’t easy picking the 32 best seasons. I had two rules: Only one season per player, so we’d end up with a bracket of 32 different players; and I considered only seasons since 1901 (sorry, Ross Barnes fans).

It was important to get a diverse list of eras as well as positions. I did put a little more emphasis on more recent decades; basically, the quality of the game has improved over time, thus making it more difficult to post seasons with huge WAR totals like Ruth put up. Here is the breakdown by decade:

1900s -- 1
1910s -- 3
1920s -- 3
1930s -- 2
1940s -- 4
1950s -- 3
1960s -- 2
1970s -- 3
1980s -- 3
1990s -- 4
2000s -- 4

And by position:

C -- 2; Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza.
1B -- 3; Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Rod Carew.
2B -- 4; Eddie Collins, Rogers Hornsby, Jackie Robinson, Joe Morgan.
3B -- 2; George Brett, Mike Schmidt.
SS -- 5; Honus Wagner, Ernie Banks, Robin Yount, Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez.
LF -- 6; Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols. (Ruth played left field in 1921, and Pujols primarily played left in 2003.)
CF – 8; Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Hack Wilson, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. (Musial started at all three outfield positions in 1948 but played the most in center.)
RF -- 2; Hank Aaron, Sammy Sosa.

So there are our 32 players. I didn’t necessarily pick each player’s highest WAR season. In some cases, a player’s iconic season -- like Ted Williams’ .406 year or Hank Aaron’s 1957 MVP campaign -- was selected. In some instances, maybe a player had other things in his favor that would help him to potentially fare better in the voting, like a big RBI total. Certainly, WAR is a good baseline to use because it helps us adjust for differences in eras, but it shouldn’t be the only factor in determining the better season between two players. Was what Williams accomplished in 1941 more impressive than what Morgan accomplished in 1975? Is Yount being the best hitter in his league while playing shortstop more impressive than what Babe Ruth did in 1921 against an inferior brand of pitching? Maybe you prefer the all-around brilliance of Mays or DiMaggio over the pure hitting dominance of Rogers Hornsby or Lou Gehrig.

Which seasons just missed the cut? There were seven players who had a bWAR season of at least 10.0 who didn’t make the bracket -- Lou Boudreau, Jason Giambi, Ron Santo, Adrian Beltre, Home Run Baker, Norm Cash and Matt Kemp. Sorry, guys. (Just noticed there are three third basemen there; too late now to change the final 32, unfortunately.)

So get to the bracket and start voting. We’ll do one round per day this week, culminating in the final matchup on Friday.

Let the debates begin.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Take a break from Jeremy Lin. Here are some links worth checking out from outside the SweetSpot network. Check back later Wednesday for more links from our list of bloggers.

• Keith Law released his list of top 100 prospects last week. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (and ESPN contributor) released his top 100 on Monday. Keith and Kevin have the same three at the top, although in different orders: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Matt Moore for Keith; Moore, Harper and Trout for Kevin. They match up on eight of the top 10: Keith has Blue Jays catcher Travis d'Arnaud at No. 6 (No. 16 for Kevin) and Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco at No. 8 (No. 24 for Kevin). Kevin has Braves right-hander Julio Teheran at No. 5 (No. 18 for Keith) and Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy at No. 6 (No. 11 for Keith). One of the more interesting splits is Giants center fielder Gary Brown, a speed demon who hit .336 with 14 home runs at Class A San Jose. Keith has him ranked 68th, citing his defensive abilities but wondering about his second skills; Kevin ranked him 18th, believing a little more in Brown's power and contact skills. Two more interesting splits: Kevin ranked Red Sox outfielder Brandon Jacobs No. 46 while Keith didn't have him in the top 100; Keith liked Mariners shortstop Nick Franklin at No. 57 while Kevin had him unranked.
• ESPNBoston's Joe McDonald talks with former Red Sox skipper Terry Francona, who will miss his first spring training in 31 years.
• The Yankees blog at ESPNNewYork is continuing its countdown of 25 questions in 25 days. A lot of fun stuff there, including questions like "Is this now Alex Rodriguez's team?" and "How good will Michael Pineda be?"
• Richard Durrett continues his in-depth position-by-position outlook for the Rangers. Check out his analysis at the Rangers blog at ESPNDallas.
• Joe Posnanski with a fun post on aging and great seasons. He looks at hitters with seasons of 6.0 WAR or higher and breaks them down by age. The peak age for greatness: 26, with 115 seasons. The number of great seasons starts declining from there, but takes a big hit age 32, with only 68 such seasons. By age 34 we're down to 31 such seasons.
• Kate Upton graces this year's Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue cover. She also has some helpful advice for David Price, Justin Verlander, C.J. Wilson and Jay Bruce. OK, cheap promo, but it does beg the question: Who invited the outfielder?
• Geoff Baker the Seattle Times profiles new Mariners reliever Hong-Chih Kuo, who battled anxiety issues and the "yips" last season with the Dodgers. Kuo was one of the majors' most dominant relievers in 2010, so he could be one of the offseason's best sleeper pickups.
• Jonah Keri asks: Whatever happened to the spitball? One of the highlights of my life as a baseball fan was being at the Kingdome in 1982 when Gaylord Perry got ejected for the only time in his career for throwing a spitball. Perry's young daughter, when once asked if her daddy threw a spitter, replied, "It's a hard slider."
• Bill James (subscription only) has a piece on 1960s catchers. No catcher who played primarily in that decade has made the Hall of Fame, but what was most interesting was a sidebar to the piece detailing the 1963 AL MVP race, won by Yankees catcher Elston Howard. Basically, the AL had no clear MVP candidate that year. Bob Allison of the Twins had the highest WAR (7.5) and fared best in James' Win Shares system. He led the AL with 99 runs scored and a .911 OPS but hit just .155 and went homerless in 17 games against the pennant-winning Yankees. Allison finished 15th in the MVP voting, which Howard won in what was probably the third-best season of his career.
• Matthew Carruth looks at relative strikeout rates for pitchers and unearths a gem of a season I was unfamiliar with: Ted Wingfield of the 1927 Red Sox struck out one batter in 74.2 innings. Yep, one batter. We know it happened in this game, although we don't have the play-by-play. I'm guessing it was pitcher Lefty Grove. And you won't be surprised to know that Wingfield didn't pitch in the majors again after 1927. Or that the Red Sox finished 51-103 that year.

Alex Rodriguez apparently is healthy and looks great.

But facts are facts: Rodriguez hasn't played 140 games in a season since 2007, hasn't hit .300 since 2008 and is now 36 years old going on 37 in July.

(A-Rod can't really be that old, can he? Wasn't he just a 20-year phenom slashing doubles and home runs all over the Kingdome?)

Limited to just 99 games in 2011 with shoulder, knee and thumb injuries, A-Rod had the worst season of his career, hitting 16 home runs and slugging a career-low .461. In 2009 and 2010 he hit 30 home runs each season.

You can see where I'm going with this one. We'll set A-Rod's over/under total at 30 home runs.

What do you think?

Are first basemen doing more to put runs on the board today than they did 10 years ago? How about 25 years ago? How do you make broad comparisons like this?

With any question like this you can get hung up on the differences between eras. Run-scoring environments are going to bounce around as a matter of course, and that’s before you get into the bump of the so-called "Steroids Era." If you were a fan just getting started in the late ’90s, chances are you might wind up with an inflated sense of what player performance is supposed to look like.

Happily, you can compare player performance within the context of their own season. Clay Davenport, an old colleague from Baseball Prospectus, cranks this data for every season. We can get a snapshot of where performance has gone at each position by using his Equivalent Average, or EqA. Equivalent Average isn’t the only stat you can employ; Clay scales production to batting average, with .260 defined as average.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at performances from the eight major positions over the past 25 years. We’ll start with the premium offensive positions, the four corners, from 1987 to the present:



Keep in mind, .260 is average for every season, so the year-to-year variations are going to refer back to that baseline. We can already draw a few broad conclusions -- some of which are pretty much accepted wisdom, but some prove slightly surprising.

Runs come from first base. This might seem obvious, but that’s especially the case now. It hasn’t always been that way. As you can see from the chart, left and right fielders have sometimes approached the first basemen, but that usually coincides with bad years for first basemen. But these days, first base is the game’s premium offense position.

If you look back further, that picture gets a lot more complicated. During the ’70s, first, right and left were equally important offensive positions, and in 1982 the four corners and center field were separated by just eight points. That changed in the late ’80s, as the standard for production at first base now winds up north of a .280 EqA year after year.

This higher standard has survived two expansions and the steroid era. This year Mark Teixeira was below average despite hitting 39 homers. Admittedly, it was a down year for him: he posted a .281 EqA compared to an MLB average of .283. In contrast, in 1991 Carlos Quintana defined adequacy at first -- if you’re from outside Boston and have forgotten him entirely, it’s probably just as well, but he was a nice OBP guy without much power.

What does that mean today? Well, this goes a little bit towards what Dave Schoenfield was writing about as far as Albert Pujols ranking as the top player in the game for so long. It also means that while teams like the Rangers have been leaving runs on the table by playing Mitch Moreland, you can understand why the Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez while the Angels landed Pujols. Credit the Rays for keeping up with the other big-money contenders by bringing Carlos Pena back (.292 last year).

Right field is where outfield stars play. This might take us back to the days of Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron as opposed to Ted Williams or Barry Bonds. While the averages for the two positions have balanced out over time, right field is the much stronger position these days. Some of that has is because of a matter of preference: Lance Berkman played right for the Cardinals not because he’s a good right fielder, but because he’d help them score a ton of runs. Jose Bautista might be a fantasy league’s perfect third baseman, but the Blue Jays keep bumping him back to the outfield. Add in breakthrough seasons for Mike Stanton and Matt Joyce and even nice bounce-backs from Justin Upton and Jeff Francoeur, and you wind up with the game’s reigning premium outfield slot.

Left field is down. Way down. As you can see, the last 25 years have been pretty up and down for the left-side corners. The average for left fielders in the era of division play is .277, but they haven’t reached that mark since 2004.

The sad state of left-field offensive production has already been debated plenty among statheads. Is it an affordable risk on offense at a time when teams are more defense-conscious than ever before? Or is it a case of reaping what you sow when you make a point putting guys like Juan Pierre in your everyday lineup? It might reflect an industry-wide choice to employ better defenders at the position, sacrificing some offense. But in other ways it might also reflect how left field has become almost a garbage-time position for teams that stow their backup center fielder or a sputtering veteran holdover. Teams now lack the roster space to platoon or mix and match on offense the way that they could before the seven-man bullpen became fashionable.

Whatever your take, offensive production from left fielders is down at its lowest point in 25 years, matching 1997 for punchlessness with a .268 EqA. That isn’t a coincidence; much like the present, 1997 featured a lot of transition in left fields around the majors, with guys like Gregg Jefferies, Wil Cordero and B.J. Surhoff playing their first full seasons in the outfield. Moises Alou got hurt (again), Bernard Gilkey’s career started imploding, and Greg Vaughn and Ron Gant had the worst years of their careers.

Fast-forward to the present, and you find your share of setback seasons (Carl Crawford and Delmon Young). You also see a lot of flat-out awful from self-inflicted bad ideas, like Raul Ibanez in the last year of his contract while Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano marked time on huge deals that won’t go away soon enough.

Against that, you’ve got the guys we might call sops to the speed-and-defense crowd, or what I think of as the next-gen Dave Collins solutions: Brett Gardner, Jose Tabata, Michael Brantley, Sam Fuld, Pierre and more. They range from useful OBP sources to significantly less so, but not one of them is going to be Tim Raines, let alone Crawford. Last year Gerardo Parra had the best season among this group (.280 EqA); he also stands to lose playing time in 2012 to Jason Kubel, a guy who’s a much more conventional corner-outfield selection.

Third Base is hurting. If you’re a student of baseball history, you already know that back in the Deadball Era second base was more of a high-offense position than the hot corner. That changed in the 1920s with the introduction of the livelier ball, but every once in a while you get a year where you’ve got a great group of second baseman and a weak crew of third-base vets. That was very much the case in the late ’80 and early ’90s (thanks in part to guys like Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, Robby Thompson, Lou Whitaker and Julio Franco), but after the Marlins-Rockies expansion in ’93 second base fell back again. But now we’re at this same point again, where third base has slipped behind second base, if only barely (.262 EqA to .261).

With the declining standards reflected by Scott Rolen getting named to an All-Star team despite a lousy season, finding merely competent options for third base isn’t as easy as it sounds. Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones certainly aren’t getting any younger.

You can hope this will change for the better with the arrivals of touted prospects like Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas and Lonnie Chisenhall, but we’ve also seen a few major third-base prospect flops: Pedro Alvarez or Andy LaRoche, anyone? That’s why journeymen like Casey Blake, Ryan Roberts or Jack Hannahan get opportunities to stick around.

If anything, the state of third base these days speaks volumes about the Tigers' decision to move Miguel Cabrera across to the diamond after signing Prince Fielder. As Mark Simon notes, the defensive penalty might be steep, but reviewing this data suggests that there's a major competitive advantage to be gained relative to the competition, because they're making room for two superstar bats in the lineup: Cabrera with his career .315 EqA, and Fielder with his .313. The Cardinals just ran up a flag after risking their defense at the corners with Berkman in right, so you can't blame the Tigers for trying to do likewise.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at the up-the-middle positions. If you’re one of those people who think finding good help at shortstop or catcher is hard to find these days, you might have a surprise to look forward to.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The genesis for this article came out of all the recent Hall of Fame discussions. A lot of arguments were along the lines of “Tim Raines was one of the best players in baseball in the mid-'80s,” or “You know, Don Mattingly was the best in the game there for a few years,” or perhaps “Barry Larkin was as good an all-around player as anybody at his peak.”

None of those statements are necessarily incorrect. But are they good Hall of Fame arguments? How many players can you claim were “one of the best in the game” over a period of years? So here’s what I did. I went back to 1969 and looked at each five-year span to determine the five best players in baseball, based on cumulative Baseball-Reference wins against replacement over those five years. (For the purposes of this piece, I looked just at position players.)

So here we go, with the usual caveats about WAR. You’ll see a lot of the same players and you’ll see a lot of Mike Schmidt and Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols in the top spot. But while the best player may not change all that often, it’s interesting to see who pops in some of the top five slots.

1969-1973: Sal Bando (33.6), Joe Morgan (32.7), Reggie Jackson (32.2), Johnny Bench (30.4), Pete Rose (30.1)

Our first entry and we already get a big surprise: Sal Bando, the best player in baseball? It may seem odd now, but Bando was one of the most respected players in the game at the time and finished second, third and fourth in MVP votes in 1971, 1973 and 1974. He hit for power, drew walks and played a solid third base, putting up big numbers for the era in the Oakland Coliseum, a place where batting averages and fly balls often went to die.

1970-1974: Joe Morgan (37.6), Johnny Bench (31.9), Sal Bando (30.0), Reggie Jackson (29.2), Pete Rose (28.8)

No change in the top five, although Morgan takes a big leap ahead of the others, replacing a more mundane 1969 with a monster 1973. You’re going to see a lot of Morgan here, as his 1972-76 run was one of the greatest five-year stretches in baseball history.

1971-1975: Joe Morgan (46.2), Reggie Jackson (33.3), Johnny Bench (31.9), Pete Rose (29.6), Willie Stargell (29.5)

Some believe Rose was a compiler, a good player who merely played forever. That’s not accurate; while he was never the best player in the game -- although he did win the 1973 MVP Award -- he was clearly one of the best for a period of years. This peak coincides with his years in the outfield; his value started declining once he moved to third base in 1975, where it’s fair to say he wasn’t exactly Brooks Robinson.

1972-1976: Joe Morgan (51.0), Rod Carew (33.2), Cesar Cedeno (32.5), Johnny Bench (32.1), Bobby Grich (32.0)

Absolutely phenomenal: Morgan was nearly 18 wins better than the No. 2 player over this five-year span. I don’t know if any player has ever dominated the game to the extent Morgan did over this stretch (that’s another article). Cedeno was a marvelous talent, a power/speed center fielder who hit .298 while averaging 21 home runs and 55 steals per season over these five years. The Astros moved the fences back in 1977 (10 feet at the foul lines, 12 feet in the power alleys), hurting Cedeno’s power. He injured his knee in 1978 and then broke his ankle in the 1980 playoffs, sapping his speed and effectively ending his years as a productive player.

(Read full post)

For all the talk of the balance of power tilting towards the AL East, baseball's power division hasn't won a pennant in two years, and has as many world titles collectively as the St. Louis Cardinals over the last six. With the eventual one-game play-in to determine each league's wild-card team, the benefits of being second-best in the division have been erased. Over the past 10 seasons, the East has provided eight wild card teams.

So the stakes just got higher in one of the most competitive divisions in the league, while the new playoff structure might eventually create lottery opportunities for the Orioles or Blue Jays to reach a division series. Sticking with the theme David Schoenfield introduced for this series Monday, what are the three top priorities for the beasts of the AL East?

New York Yankees

1. Rotation depth: Who's No. 2?

Now that CC Sabathia has opted to stick around, the questions are who gets lined up behind him in 2012? How soon until top prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances get chances to join Ivan Nova behind him? They're still stuck with A.J. Burnett for two more years, and seeing so much of the downside risk of signing him might understandably keep GM Brian Cashman from chasing C.J. Wilson. Bringing back Freddy Garcia at $5 million for another season of place-holding made sense, especially since they don't seem to know what to expect from Phil Hughes.

Likely solution: Sticking with Hughes and Burnett would be defensible in most organizations, but the need for a second stopper beyond Sabathia to put the Yankees in better postseason shape will compel them to chase a high-end vet. Don't be surprised when they ink Roy Oswalt as the best balance of short-term need, high price tag and quality.

2. Designated hitter: Open (Jorge Posada, free agent).

The job already belongs to Jesus Montero. The expectation of the offensive boost they'll get from Montero will no doubt fuel speculation that the Yankees could shop Nick Swisher in his last season before free agency. The Yankees will also add some down-on-his-luck veteran slugger to a split contract and a spring training invite to try and make the roster, not unlike Eric Chavez last February.

3. Infield depth: (Eduardo Nunez and … )

Derek Jeter will be 38 years old, and he's coming off his worst year. Alex Rodriguez hasn't managed to stay healthy and play a full season since 2007. Anticipating that he'll miss another 30-40 games in 2012 would be practical. And Nunez can't play short and third base if the Yankees are confronted with continuing decline from the Captain at the same time that A-Rod breaks down. A lefty bat to spot either starter would be handy.

Likely solution: Obvious free-agent candidates like Jerry Hairston Jr., Nick Punto or Adam Kennedy would represent the most risk-averse solutions without providing much help at the plate. Signing Carlos Guillen would entail lots of risk, but he's played around the infield and if he was game for an incentive-laden deal, might get another shot at the postseason.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. First base: Open (Casey Kotchman, free agent)

Kotchman was less an actual incumbent and more like the temp you thank and then let loose. So the Rays are now in the position to explore their options and find something better. They won't get in on the Prince-Albert sweepstakes, but they might find Carlos Pena amenable now that he's found that the market isn't going to give him a huge long-term contract. But even that's fairly unlikely. Minor league professional hitter Russ Canzler shows up atop the depth charts for the time being after hitting .314/.401/.530 for Triple-A Durham; he could be part of a platoon if the Rays find a lefty-batting partner.

Likely solution: The Rays understand that their alternatives are fairly interchangeable, just as they were last year when they settled for Kotchman and Dan Johnson. There's always the opportunity to see if the A's would part with any of their collection of semi-interesting alternatives, because they'll have to pick from among Brandon Allen, Chris Carter and Daric Barton. A Barton/Canzler platoon would be typical of the organization's ability to make do with less.

2. Designated hitter: Open (Johnny Damon, free agent)

Damon has already expressed an interest in coming back, as well he might -- DHs who slug .418 aren't likely to be in a lot of demand, no matter how much they're seen as great clubhouse guys. Brandon Guyer's arrival in the outfield corner adds a good option to the Rays' lineup. They're not in dire need and will have the freedom to explore whatever opportunities crop up.

Likely solution: A lot like first base, there isn't a likely solution beyond the likelihood that the Rays might find a veteran willing to sign for a relatively-cheap contract in January -- like Damon did last year. It might even be Damon again. But it will be a matter of finding the man willing to take what the Rays will offer while providing a modicum of offense.

3. Catcher: Open (Kelly Shoppach, free agent; John Jaso, traded to Seattle)

Before you ask, no, signing Jose Molina for $1.5 million was not entirely the answer. But the question is whether a job-sharing arrangement between Molina and minor-league veteran Jose Lobaton will be. Lobaton is a switch-hitter with a career .259/.348/.410 line in the minors, and he's been strong-armed enough to throw people out at roughly a 30 percent clip.

Likely solution: Joe Maddon has been comfortable with cobbled-together platoons in the past, and working with this one while semi-prospect Robinson Chirinos recuperates from a broken wrist suffered in winter ball would be more of the same. But in light of recent rumors that the Rockies are shopping Chris Iannetta, it's hard not to think his blend of walks and power would make him exactly the kind of player at the right price for the Rays.

Boston Red Sox

ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes reports that the managerial search is down to Bobby Valentine and Gene Lamont, which is good news. Valentine would bring an articulate spokesman and a dugout aggression the Sox could probably use, while Lamont's merits as a tactician and his stint as a successful skipper on Chicago's South Side shouldn't be overlooked. We won't count this one, since it'll be resolved shortly.

1. Designated hitter: Empty (David Ortiz, free agent)

Papi's offense isn't the issue, the question is whether Father Time will ever catch up to the 36-year-old slugger. But after slugging .529 and .554 the last two years, he can afford to demand a multi-year deal, and the supply of people delivering that kind of power on the market is limited to four players. Ortiz will cost considerably less over a significantly shorter deal than Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or Carlos Beltran.

Likely solution: Papi re-signs with the Red Sox for a multi-year deal that guarantees that his 400th career homer -- if he keeps aging gracefully, as he's at 349 now -- comes in a Boston uniform. Retaining his power will help let the Sox develop Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish in right field.

2. Closer: Empty?

If you'd asked this question in July in anticipation of Jonathan Papelbon's offseason defection as a free agent, you'd have said the job was Daniel Bard's to lose. But he may have lost it after four losses and three blown saves in September. Bobby Jenks was supposed to be some sort of insurance, but he can't be counted on between back woes and the pulmonary embolism that was diagnosed in September. So the question is whether the new brain trust wants to believe in Bard's talent, or if it would rather have an alternative.

Likely solution: The Phillies' Ryan Madson has been talked up as an obvious target, and as long as he gets paid top dollar he may be more flexible over who gets saves after a long career in setting up other people. The alternatives would be short-term deals with somebody famous (Francisco Rodriguez) to generate saves, or getting a less well-known veteran like Frank Francisco of the Blue Jays, since he'd be an asset whether he pitches in front of Bard or behind.

3. Infield: Shop depth to exploit the market's shortage of talent on the left side.

Between Jimmy Rollins' price tag, Rafael Furcal's fragility, and Aramis Ramirez's bulk, you can understand how a lot of teams feeling short at short or third will want to expand their alternatives. Between Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie and Mike Aviles the Sox have three useful players who can play third base or shortstop, and Lowrie and Aviles are both under club control for the next three years.

Likely solution: Don't be surprised if either Lowrie or Aviles gets dealt for additional relief help. For example, the Cubs' Sean Marshall's only under control for one more year, so he could certainly be available, and the Cubs could use a guy with the bat for third like Lowrie.

Toronto Blue Jays

1. Closer: Open (Francisco and Jon Rauch, free agents)

This may not be the preeminent need, but the one that GM Alex Anthopoulos will most readily address -- probably no differently than he did last winter when he trawled for short-term help and hauled in Francisco, Rauch and Octavio Dotel. This winter, he's also be losing Shawn Camp after already dealing away Jason Frasor, Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski during the season, so there are plenty of job openings in Toronto beyond the guy who will be getting the most save opportunities.

Likely solution: Another grab-bag of rented veterans who can be comfortable in the knowledge they'll have a shot at a few saves and a deadline deal to a contender.

2. Second base (Kelly Johnson, free agent)

After dealing away Aaron Hill to acquire Johnson -- and expecting that Johnson would file for free agency, yielding draft picks via an arbitration offer -- there's the very real danger that Johnson could just accept arbitration. As fascinating as Johnson is in sabermetric circles, he's had only one good year in the last three. That season was boosted by a .976 OPS in the D-backs' hitter-happy home. Johnson will be turning 30, his strikeout rate reached 26.6 percent last year, and he's not a defensive asset in the field or around the bag. One man's treasure is another man's trash, and the Jays may be stuck learning that Johnson might elicit a lot less interest than they hoped. If he stays, he could reasonably expect more than $6 million via arbitration, which wouldn't be the end of the world.

Likely solution: Johnson doesn't take arbitration, to the regret of everyone involved besides the Jays. The Jays end up having to shop around, because the market's thin. Don't be surprised if another deal with the Cardinals brings Ryan Theriot to Toronto for his last year before free agency.

3. Rotation starter

As much excitement as Ricky Romero deserves en route to ensuring his long-term commitment to the Blue Jays, the rest of the rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Brandon Morrow was talented and exasperating, and Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil both pitched badly enough to lose their jobs at different points of the season. Top prospects like Deck McGuire, Asher Wojciechowski, Drew Hutchison and Chad Jenkins aren't close to ready, and organizational survivors like Brad Mills, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch are far from sure things to round out a front five.

Likely solution: Henderson Alvarez didn't enjoy many top-prospect touts on the way up, but six quality starts in 10 turns for Toronto should get him one of the slots behind Romero, Morrow and Cecil. It will be interesting to see if the Jays keep the last spot open for Drabek or one of the organizational pitchers, or if they spring for a one-year rental with a veteran innings-eater like Aaron Harang to buy the bullpen some breathing room.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Front office.

The player development system has too often proven to be an organizational stepchild. Yappy marketing and Buck Showalter in the dugout didn't change that and couldn't; new GM Dan Duquette is charged with trying. Between faith in his Latin American contacts and his past track record with the Expos and Red Sox, the hope is that Duquette isn't merely the latest front-office time-server -- say, Syd Thrift in a different suit.

Likely solution: While other teams might be heading to the Winter Meetings looking to land big-name free agents, Duquette's best investments this winter should be the ones he makes in adding front-office help, coaches, instructors and scouts. The new CBA may have hamstrung creativity if you reduce that to dollars, but good scouting and better instruction generates its own rewards.

2. Starting pitching: 60 quality starts, fewest in MLB.

This was expected to be, if not an area of strength, or at least a unit that provided hope in the form of young talent. But Jake Arrieta hurt his elbow, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman took huge steps backward, and top pitching prospect Zach Britton put up a 5.76 ERA in 10 second-half starts. The bullpen had to absorb a ton of work from a rotation that struggled to deliver just 5.4 innings per start while allowing 5.9 runs per nine.

Likely solution: Stockpiling back-end rotation castoffs like Jo-Jo Reyes and Tommy Hunter will not be the solution; that's just hunting for the next Jeremy Guthrie and not finding him. If Duquette wants to make an immediate impact in a way that will show up in the 2012 standings, it might be to add a veteran starter who can be a positive example -- like Charlie Leibrandt did with the early-'90s Braves. While Mark Buehrle or Oswalt would be perfect as examples and as mentors, it's more likely the O's will have to settle for the likes of Joel Pineiro or perhaps a rehabbing Jason Marquis.

3. Infield: Who plays where?

Between concern over second baseman Brian Roberts' recovery from his concussion and questions over whether Mark Reynolds or Chris Davis can play third base, you might think the Orioles should be looking for help at second base and the hot corner. Maybe at first base too.

Likely solution: Take a look at the market, and you can conclude these are issues best left for spring training. Unless the Angelos clan empowers Duquette to blow the budget well past $90 million, the O's can't land a Pujols or Fielder at first base, and they shouldn't make the too-common Orioles mistake of overpaying for mediocre free agents. If Roberts can't come back, if there's one thing the system has, it's in-house alternatives at second (starting with prospect Ryan Adams), and the market for help at third base is thin enough to encourage them to be patient with Davis at the hot corner.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Trade Joey Votto now, the theory goes. The Cincinnati Reds have him for two seasons until he becomes a free agent. He's one of the best players in the game. As a small-market franchise, the Reds will be unlikely to afford him when he hits the market. His trade value only drops if the Reds hold on to him for another season or if they look to deal him at the trade deadline in 2013. So trade him now, when his value is high. Get a slew of cheap, young prospects for him.

On one level, it makes sense. When the Texas Rangers traded Mark Teixeira to the Atlanta Braves in 2007 -- with Teixiera still more than a year from free agency -- it was a deal that helped rebuild the franchise, as Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison became key contributors on two World Series teams.

Unfortunately, that deal is the exception rather than the rule (see the list below of superstars traded in recent years with at least one full season until they hit free agency). Here's the thing: Superstars are unbelievably hard to come by; you need them to win pennants and World Series titles; the goal of every team should be to acquire a superstar, not trade one away. In dealing for prospects, you are assuming all the risk (at least in talent acquisition; you do get an immediate financial savings, of course). Trading for prospects might seem like a good investment, but you are often instead left with a bunch of subprime players.

The Reds had a disappointing season in 2011, but they still have the same talent core that won the NL Central in 2010. Yes, they could use a starting pitcher and maybe Votto would bring one in return. But is Yonder Alonso really ready to fill Votto's shoes? Or was his .330/.398/.545 line in 98 plate appearances a fluke? The Reds' best chanc of winning in 2012 -- and I do believe they have a chance -- isn't trading Votto, but hoping for improvement from their starting rotation. The Reds don't need more young players -- they have Jay Bruce and Alonso and Aroldis Chapman and Devin Mesoraco and Drew Stubbs and Yasmani Grandal in the minors. Trading Votto for a pitcher isn't going to help if Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez and Mike Leake don't improve anyway.

Plus, there's this scenario: If the goal is to trade Votto and hope you get lucky that one of the prospects develops into a star, wouldn't the Reds just end up facing the same scenario? The odds that you acquire three prospects, each of whom develops into a good player before he starts making big money, is extremely slim. Among other reasons, if those prospects were sure things, they wouldn't be getting traded.

So if I'm the Reds, I keep Votto. I do what the Brewers did in 2011 with Prince Fielder and the Rays in 2010 with Carl Crawford. Those clubs kept their impending free agents and won division titles. You need stars to win pennants. Joey Votto is the Reds' star.

* * * *

Here are some of those superstar deals and why I consider trading Votto for prospects a risk for the Reds.

Adrian Gonzalez (Padres to Red Sox) -- Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly, Reymond Fuentes. Rizzo hit .331 with 26 home runs in 93 games in Triple-A, but just .141 in 49 big league games. He's just 22, so he has time. Kelly was actually the top prospect in the deal, but he's yet to harness is good stuff into productive results, posting a 3.98 ERA in Double-A with mediocre pheriphals. Fuentes is a speedy center fielder who hit .275 without power in Class A. The Padres' payroll actually increased in 2011 and their attendance actually remained steady compared to 2010 -- but it's down over 600,000 from 2007.

Zack Greinke (Brewers to Royals) -- Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffries, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi (plus the subtraction of Yuniesky Betancourt). Again, too soon to evaluate. If Escobar moves beyond a good-field, no-hit shortstop and Cain develops into the team's starting center fielder, it could be a decent return for the Royals.

Cliff Lee (Phillies to Mariners) -- Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, J.C. Ramirez. None have reached the majors, although Aumount has closer potential. (And the Mariners later traded Lee to the Rangers, they helped a division rival reach its first World Series. Even though Lee didn't stay with Texas, that initial World Series trip helps bring in more fans, which adds more revenue long-term, and makes the Rangers more attractive for free agents. Why help a division rival? And Justin Smoak -- .227 career average -- has been so unimpressive, some think the Mariners should go after Votto this offseason.)

Roy Halladay (Blue Jays to Phillies) -- Kyle Drabek, Travis d'Arnaud, Michael Taylor. This one might yet work out for the Jays. Drabek was the top prospect in the deal, and while it's too early to write him off, he was terrible as a rookie (6.06 ERA) and even worse in Triple-A (7.44). But d'Arnaud is a promising catching prospect who hit .311/.371/.542 at Double-A and the Jays eventually turned Taylor into the talented, toolsy Anthony Gose (16 home runs, 70 steals in Double-A, but 154 strikeouts).

Cliff Lee (Indians to Phillies) -- Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Lou Marson. The Indians traded Lee with one and a half years before he hit free agency. They don't have much to show yet, although maybe Carrasco will develop beyond a No. 5 starter.

Matt Holliday (Rockies to A's) -- Huston Street, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith. The Rockies traded Holliday to the A's after the 2008 season. They even won the wild card in 2009, but slipped back to 73 wins in 2011. Holliday eventually signed a seven-year, $120 million contract with the Cardinals through 2016. The Rockies signed Gonzalez to a seven-year, $80 million extension from 2011 through 2017, and also paid Street $19 million from 2009 to 2011, and owe him $7.5 million in 2012 plus a $9 million player option for 2013.

So, did this trade work out for the Rockies? The tally so far, from 2009 through 2011:

Holliday: 15.2 WAR (Baseball-Reference), $56.1 million in salary
Gonzalez/Street: 12.6 WAR, $24.2 million in salary (and signing bonus), one playoff season

FanGraphs estimates that one extra win on the free-agent market is currently worth about $4.5 million, so in theory the A's/Cardinals have overpaid by $20.2 million for their addition 2.6 wins of estimated value in comparison to Gonzalez/Street.

Future commitments:

Holliday: Five seasons, $86 million (assuming team doesn't pick up 2017 option)
Gonzalez/Street: Eight seasons, $93.5 million (assuming Street picks up 2013 option)

So far, the Rockies have saved about $32 million in payroll with a slight decrease in overall value. Long-term, they'll spend a little more money but spread out over more seasons. The question is if Gonzalez is the star player of 2010 or merely the solid starter of 2011. At worst, the deal is probably a wash as Holliday should decline as he ages, and a potential huge plus for the Rockies if CarGo has more years like 2010.

Johan Santana (Twins to Mets) -- Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey. A disaster for the Twins. They missed the playoffs by one game in 2008 (losing a tie-breaker playoff to the White Sox). Who knows, if they'd kept Santana they might have won the World Series.

Miguel Cabrera (Marlins to Tigers) -- Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo, Dallas Trahern. The Marlins have made some good deals but this was not one of them. (Dontrelle Willis was also traded to Detroit in the deal, although that was the best part of the trade for Florida.)

Mark Teixeira (Rangers to Braves) -- Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Beau Jones. The granddaddy that all small-market teams hope to emulate. I think it's important to note that the Rangers were in a different state in 2007 than the Reds are now -- they were on their way to an 87-loss season when Teixeira was traded, with their rotation compiling a depressing 5.50 ERA. As much as this trade helped -- especially with Harrison's emergence in 2011 -- it was the rebuilding of the rotation that turned the Rangers into a World Series team.

Ryan Braun still has a lot of baseball left to play -- at least four games in a worst-case scenario -- but his blazing start to the postseason (11-for-22, five doubles, two home runs, seven runs and eight RBIs) has us thinking of great October runs. Since the addition of the wild card in 1996, here are eight other great postseason runs.

8. Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees (15 games, .345/.435/.707, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 14 R, 1.527 WPA*)

Williams carried the Yankees with five home runs through the first two rounds, and while he cooled off the in the World Series, his two-run homer in the eighth in Game 3 gave the Yankees a 4-1 lead, and he went 2-for-4 in the clinching Game 6, including an RBI single off Greg Maddux in the third inning.

* Win Probability Added, from Baseball-Reference.com. The change in win probability for the player's team given the score, situation and outcome of each plate appearance. A change of plus-1 indicates one win added.

7. Manny Ramirez, 2008 Dodgers (8 games, .520/.667/1.080, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 9 R, 11 BB, 0.741 WPA)

Ramirez was unstoppable in the 2008 playoffs in going 13-for-25, but it wasn't enough as the Dodgers lost to Phillies in five games in the National League Championship Series.

6. Albert Pujols, 2004 Cardinals (15 games, .414/.493/.793, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 15 R, 1.302 WPA)

Pujols went 5-for-9 with four runs, a home run and three RBIs as the Cardinals beat the Astros in the final two games of the NLCS. And don't blame him for the World Series loss to Boston: He hit .333 (although he failed to drive in a run).

5. Troy Glaus, 2002 Angels (16 games, .344/.420/.770, 7 HR, 13 RBI, 14 R, 1.065 WPA)

He hit three home runs against the Yankees in the American League Division Series, hit .316 in the ALCS and won World Series MVP honors by hitting .385 with three home runs and eight RBIs. His two-run double in the eighth inning of Game 6 gave the Angels a 6-5 lead.

4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees (15 games, .365/.500/.808, 5 2B, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 15 R, 1.696 WPA)

For one postseason, A-Rod put it all together. He drove in six runs in each round, drew 12 walks and delivered clutch hits, most notably his two-run homer off Joe Nathan in the bottom of the ninth that tied Game 2 of the division series (a game the Yankees won in the 12th) and his go-ahead double with two outs in the ninth off Brad Lidge in Game 4 of the World Series.

3. Carlos Beltran, 2004 Astros (12 games, .435/.536/1.022, 8 HR, 14 RBI, 21 R, 6 SB, 1.041 WPA)

Amazingly, Beltran holds the record for most runs scored in a single postseason, even though the Astros didn't reach the World Series. He hit four home runs in the division series and four more in the NLCS, made several outstanding catches in center field, drew nine walks ... and went 0-for-3 in a Game 7 loss to the Cardinals (Mets fans nod their heads).

2. Barry Bonds, 2002 Giants (17 games, .356/.581/.978, 8 HR 16 RBI, 18 R, 27 BB, 1.202 WPA)

Bonds had been a .196 hitter with just one home run in 27 previous postseason games entering 2002. He led the Giants to the seventh game of the World Series with a monster effort that included 13 intentional walks. I think his home run off Troy Percival in Game 2 just landed two weeks ago. He went 1-for-3 with a walk in Game 7 of the World Series, but the Giants lost 4-1.

1. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox (14 games, .400/.515/.764, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 13 R, 13 BB, 1.865 WPA)

First, he hit a series-winning home run in the bottom of the 10th inning in the ALDS against the Angels. He had a walk-off home run to win Game 4 of the ALCS. In Game 5, he hit a home run in the eighth inning as the Red Sox scored twice to tie it, then delivered the game-winning hit with two outs in the 12th. In Game 7, he hit a two-run bomb in the top of the first. And he hit .308 with four RBIs in a sweep of the Cardinals in the World Series. His 19 RBIs are tied with Sandy Alomar of the 1997 Indians and Scott Spiezio of the 2002 Angels for most in a single postseason.

I spent last night watching the postgame coverage on YES. I listened to Yankees fans calling in to sports-talk radio as I drove in to work this morning. I have the Mike Francesa show on YES on right now as I write this. Love the Yankees or hate the Yankees, the day after they're eliminated from the postseason is always one of the more interesting days of the year: The overanalysis, the stunned shock of defeat, the placing of blame on Alex Rodriguez. As Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay said on Mike & Mike about Game 5, "You couldn't find a person in New York who thought the Yankees had a chance to lose that game. ... Everything was lined up for the Yankees to win, it just was."

OK, some thoughts on all this, the 10th time in 11 seasons that will end without a World Series pennant flying over Yankee Stadium, the seventh time in eight years that ends without the Yankees making a trip to the World Series.

1. I didn't quite understand why everybody thought this was such a sure win for the Yankees. Did I miss the memo where Ivan Nova had suddenly turned into Bob Gibson? Do people realize this is baseball, where anything can one happen in one game? You could have put the Houston Astros out there and they would have had a chance to win. Plus, the dismissing of Doug Fister was a little embarrassing. It's easy to argue that Fister is a better pitcher than Nova and certainly not inconceivable that he could outpitch Nova. In analytical terms, the game was a toss-up.

2. You can extend that analogy one step further: Not enough fans understand that the baseball playoffs are a crapshoot. Since 1990, you know how many teams with the best regular-season record have won the World Series? Three -- the '98 Yankees, '07 Red Sox and '09 Yankees. If you make the playoffs, you essentially have a 1-in-4 chance of reaching the World Series. If you get to the World Series, you have 1-in-2 chance of winning. So if you make the playoffs every season you should win a World Series once every eight years. In their past eight trips to the postseason, the Yankees have reached two World Series and won one. Exactly what the odds would predict.

3. Of course, the current Yankees suffer in comparison to the 1996-2000 squad that captured four World Series titles in five years. What that team did was simply mind-boggling, going 46-15 in the postseason over a five-year span ... that's a .754 winning percentage, which is higher than the 1927 Yankees. That kind of run will never happen again. It can't. It just defies the laws of probability and postseason baseball. Since 2001, the Yankees have gone a still-impressive 48-43 in the postseason, but it's led to just one championship. (There's a comparison here to be made with the 1991-2005 Braves. In this ESPN Insider piece, Dan Szymborski reported that given their opponents, the Braves' postseason record of 63-62 was only one game worse than their expected record of 64-61.)

4. Let's not forget that the Yankees actually outscored the Tigers in the series by 11 runs. Of course, playoff series aren't determined on aggregate.

5. Alex Rodriguez ... look, you can argue that he shouldn't have been hitting cleanup. That would be the major question regarding Joe Girardi's managing in the series. Yankee fans love to bash A-Rod, of course, and it's somewhat understandable why. Here are his postseason averages since joining the Yankees:

2004 -- .320
2005 -- .133
2006 -- .071
2007 -- .267
2009 -- .365
2010 -- .219
2011 -- .111

Add it up and his overall postseason line with the Yankees isn't as bad as you think, however: .260/.388/.480, with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in 53 games. He's hardly the one who should be "blamed," however. Here's how some of the Yankees did with runners in scoring position this series:

Derek Jeter: 1-for-8
Curtis Granderson: 1-for-4
Nick Swisher: 1-for-5
Russell Martin: 0-for-3
Mark Teixeira: 0-for-3
Alex Rodriguez: 0-for-5.

By the way, I'm not quite sure why Teixeira seems to escape criticism. His career postseason line (including one series with the Angels) is an abysmal .207/.315/.322, with just three home runs and 13 RBIs in 31 games. Swisher is a .169 postseason hitter in 38 games, with just six RBIs (he's 1-for-31 in his postseason career with runners in scoring position). The blame can be spread around.

6. You can't really fault Girardi too much. You can question the odd Eric Chavez pinch-hitting move for Brett Gardner in Game 3 and I thought his handling of the bullpen in Game 5 was a little questionable. Like pretty much every manager today, Girardi gets too locked into roles: David Robertson in the eighth, Mariano Rivera in the ninth. I know Ivan Nova's injury made things a bit more difficult, but I didn't like the idea of using CC Sabathia unless absolutely forced to. He brought in Sabathia to face the top of the Detroit lineup in the fifth inning when the Yankees trailed 2-0. Austin Jackson doubled and then after two strikeouts, he intentionally walked Miguel Cabrera. I think there were two better options as that inning unfurled: (1) Bring in Rafael Soriano to start the inning in the first place, try and get two innings from him, and then two from Robertson and then Rivera; or (2) once Sabathia had put two runners on base, bring in Robertson. What are you waiting for? I know it's CC Sabathia, but he was pitching on two days' rest. You cannot afford to allow any more runs at the point and Robertson was terrific all season. You have to manage Game 5 differently, and in my book, that meant getting as many innings as possible from Robertson and Rivera.

7. The Rob Thomson hold on A-Rod: Absolutely the right call. After the watching the replay again this morning, Rodriguez would have been out by 15 feet. Good decision by Thomson not to run the team out of a big inning.

8. For all the questions of "What will the Yankees do next?" the answer is: Not much. I expect the whole lineup will return, with the exception of Jesus Montero taking over the DH role from Jorge Posada. The bullpen is set with Boone Logan, Soriano, Robertson and Mo. A-Rod will be a year older and maybe a year more injury-prone (he's missed 150 games over the past four seasons and I wonder if we can ever expect him to play 150 games injury-free again). Jeter is a year older. Swisher will be 31. Teixeira will turn 32 and his OPS has declined three seasons in a row. And the rotation ... well, let's see if CC opts out of his contract and go from there. No doubt the pressure will be on GM Brian Cashman to re-sign Sabathia, and maybe go after free agent C.J. Wilson or swing a trade for another rotation anchor.

9. Anyway, it was a fun, interesting series. Did the better team win? Maybe, maybe not. I certainly don't buy the argument that the Yankees should have won the series and Game 5. There is no should in postseason baseball.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.