SweetSpot: Alfonso Soriano
Position production: At the corners
January, 28, 2012
Jan 28
9:00
AM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
Jim McIsaac/Getty ImagesAlex Rodriguez's injury-marred year contributed to a weak group of third basemen in 2011.With any question like this you can get hung up on the differences between eras. Run-scoring environments are going to bounce around as a matter of course, and that’s before you get into the bump of the so-called "Steroids Era." If you were a fan just getting started in the late ’90s, chances are you might wind up with an inflated sense of what player performance is supposed to look like.
Happily, you can compare player performance within the context of their own season. Clay Davenport, an old colleague from Baseball Prospectus, cranks this data for every season. We can get a snapshot of where performance has gone at each position by using his Equivalent Average, or EqA. Equivalent Average isn’t the only stat you can employ; Clay scales production to batting average, with .260 defined as average.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at performances from the eight major positions over the past 25 years. We’ll start with the premium offensive positions, the four corners, from 1987 to the present:
ESPN.comFour-corner EqA performance at the plate, 1987-2011Keep in mind, .260 is average for every season, so the year-to-year variations are going to refer back to that baseline. We can already draw a few broad conclusions -- some of which are pretty much accepted wisdom, but some prove slightly surprising.
Runs come from first base. This might seem obvious, but that’s especially the case now. It hasn’t always been that way. As you can see from the chart, left and right fielders have sometimes approached the first basemen, but that usually coincides with bad years for first basemen. But these days, first base is the game’s premium offense position.
If you look back further, that picture gets a lot more complicated. During the ’70s, first, right and left were equally important offensive positions, and in 1982 the four corners and center field were separated by just eight points. That changed in the late ’80s, as the standard for production at first base now winds up north of a .280 EqA year after year.
This higher standard has survived two expansions and the steroid era. This year Mark Teixeira was below average despite hitting 39 homers. Admittedly, it was a down year for him: he posted a .281 EqA compared to an MLB average of .283. In contrast, in 1991 Carlos Quintana defined adequacy at first -- if you’re from outside Boston and have forgotten him entirely, it’s probably just as well, but he was a nice OBP guy without much power.
What does that mean today? Well, this goes a little bit towards what Dave Schoenfield was writing about as far as Albert Pujols ranking as the top player in the game for so long. It also means that while teams like the Rangers have been leaving runs on the table by playing Mitch Moreland, you can understand why the Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez while the Angels landed Pujols. Credit the Rays for keeping up with the other big-money contenders by bringing Carlos Pena back (.292 last year).
Right field is where outfield stars play. This might take us back to the days of Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron as opposed to Ted Williams or Barry Bonds. While the averages for the two positions have balanced out over time, right field is the much stronger position these days. Some of that has is because of a matter of preference: Lance Berkman played right for the Cardinals not because he’s a good right fielder, but because he’d help them score a ton of runs. Jose Bautista might be a fantasy league’s perfect third baseman, but the Blue Jays keep bumping him back to the outfield. Add in breakthrough seasons for Mike Stanton and Matt Joyce and even nice bounce-backs from Justin Upton and Jeff Francoeur, and you wind up with the game’s reigning premium outfield slot.
Left field is down. Way down. As you can see, the last 25 years have been pretty up and down for the left-side corners. The average for left fielders in the era of division play is .277, but they haven’t reached that mark since 2004.
The sad state of left-field offensive production has already been debated plenty among statheads. Is it an affordable risk on offense at a time when teams are more defense-conscious than ever before? Or is it a case of reaping what you sow when you make a point putting guys like Juan Pierre in your everyday lineup? It might reflect an industry-wide choice to employ better defenders at the position, sacrificing some offense. But in other ways it might also reflect how left field has become almost a garbage-time position for teams that stow their backup center fielder or a sputtering veteran holdover. Teams now lack the roster space to platoon or mix and match on offense the way that they could before the seven-man bullpen became fashionable.
Whatever your take, offensive production from left fielders is down at its lowest point in 25 years, matching 1997 for punchlessness with a .268 EqA. That isn’t a coincidence; much like the present, 1997 featured a lot of transition in left fields around the majors, with guys like Gregg Jefferies, Wil Cordero and B.J. Surhoff playing their first full seasons in the outfield. Moises Alou got hurt (again), Bernard Gilkey’s career started imploding, and Greg Vaughn and Ron Gant had the worst years of their careers.
Fast-forward to the present, and you find your share of setback seasons (Carl Crawford and Delmon Young). You also see a lot of flat-out awful from self-inflicted bad ideas, like Raul Ibanez in the last year of his contract while Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano marked time on huge deals that won’t go away soon enough.
Against that, you’ve got the guys we might call sops to the speed-and-defense crowd, or what I think of as the next-gen Dave Collins solutions: Brett Gardner, Jose Tabata, Michael Brantley, Sam Fuld, Pierre and more. They range from useful OBP sources to significantly less so, but not one of them is going to be Tim Raines, let alone Crawford. Last year Gerardo Parra had the best season among this group (.280 EqA); he also stands to lose playing time in 2012 to Jason Kubel, a guy who’s a much more conventional corner-outfield selection.
Third Base is hurting. If you’re a student of baseball history, you already know that back in the Deadball Era second base was more of a high-offense position than the hot corner. That changed in the 1920s with the introduction of the livelier ball, but every once in a while you get a year where you’ve got a great group of second baseman and a weak crew of third-base vets. That was very much the case in the late ’80 and early ’90s (thanks in part to guys like Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, Robby Thompson, Lou Whitaker and Julio Franco), but after the Marlins-Rockies expansion in ’93 second base fell back again. But now we’re at this same point again, where third base has slipped behind second base, if only barely (.262 EqA to .261).
With the declining standards reflected by Scott Rolen getting named to an All-Star team despite a lousy season, finding merely competent options for third base isn’t as easy as it sounds. Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones certainly aren’t getting any younger.
You can hope this will change for the better with the arrivals of touted prospects like Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas and Lonnie Chisenhall, but we’ve also seen a few major third-base prospect flops: Pedro Alvarez or Andy LaRoche, anyone? That’s why journeymen like Casey Blake, Ryan Roberts or Jack Hannahan get opportunities to stick around.
If anything, the state of third base these days speaks volumes about the Tigers' decision to move Miguel Cabrera across to the diamond after signing Prince Fielder. As Mark Simon notes, the defensive penalty might be steep, but reviewing this data suggests that there's a major competitive advantage to be gained relative to the competition, because they're making room for two superstar bats in the lineup: Cabrera with his career .315 EqA, and Fielder with his .313. The Cardinals just ran up a flag after risking their defense at the corners with Berkman in right, so you can't blame the Tigers for trying to do likewise.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at the up-the-middle positions. If you’re one of those people who think finding good help at shortstop or catcher is hard to find these days, you might have a surprise to look forward to.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Can't go wrong with a Big Lebowski reference, right?
Anyway, no sooner does it get noted the Chicago Cubs could use people who draw a walk now and again than Theo Epstein’s band of merry front-office mercs signed a guy who… draws a walk now and again, inking transient Athletics/former Royals outfielder David DeJesus to a two-year-plus-option contract. DeJesus will cost either $10 million to employ over two seasons (counting a buyout of the club option of 2014) or $15 million over three years.
My first reaction was superficial and positive -- after all, David DeJesus was once a heck of a player, if a bit fragile, and if he’s in demand first in Oakland and then in Wrigleyville, it means he’s getting the stamp of approval from both Billy Beane and Theo Epstein. And there are a few quick and easy takeaways from this, but upon reflection, not all of them are positive.
First, DeJesus had an awful 2011. You can blame that on the BABIP fairy if such is your inclination: He put up a career-low .274 average on balls in play, against his career average of .316. You can try to blame the always-tough Coliseum a little bit, although he had an equally miserable season on the road, with a .701 OPS away from Oakland against his .695 OPS at home. Whatever Oakland’s rep, he also wasn’t fouling out at a more prodigious rate.
What’s really troubling is that DeJesus was striking out at a career-worst 17 percent clip in 2011, more than three points worse than his next-worst campaign in the last six seasons. Dig into the data, and he was proving increasingly susceptible to off-speed stuff from right-handers while simply being owned by lefties. Maybe the Cubs see something they can fix, instead of just banking that $10-15 million on mere regression.
Second, DeJesus doesn’t actually walk that much. He’s patient, and he will be patient -- for a Cub. He’ll be the walk-iest Cub this side of Geovany Soto, but his career walk rate of 8.3 percent is just a hair below the MLB average (8.5).
Third, having DeJesus in the fold certainly frees the Cubs up to explore their outfield options, which is perhaps the best news the deal represents. He’ll be in right field unless/until Epstein’s crew somehow makes Alfonso Soriano and his monster contract and his no-trade clause go away. That’s highly unlikely, though.
An outfield of Soriano, Marlon Byrd in center and DeJesus in right is better than counting on Tyler Colvin or eventually top outfield prospect Brett Jackson, but not a whole lot better. But with Jackson nearing the majors and with DeJesus signed, Jed Hoyer and Epstein can that much more easily shop Byrd around. He’s in the last year of his deal and due $6.5 million, and everyday center fielders with good defense and a bat that won’t hurt you can have value on a contender unhappy with the market’s slim pickings. However, that’s a decision that can wait until one of a few things happen: The Cubs get an offer they can’t refuse, and/or Jackson looks great in spring training, and/or they hold Byrd until the deadline to try and land the best deal.
Finally, DeJesus’ deal reflects another economic reality that upsets a free peoples’ applecarts, which is that the inflationary pressure of salary arbitration rewarded DeJesus more than the open market did. Via arbitration, DeJesus made more in both 2010 ($4.7 million) and 2011 ($6 million) than he will in 2012 or 2013 ($4.25 million each year). That’s without adjusting for inflation, which would only make his new deal look worse. You can chalk this development up to a couple of things: DeJesus’ lousy 2011 season, or perhaps his quest for multi-year security instead of a single-season payday.
Or, perhaps most fundamentally, there’s the expanding gap between what the best players will get via free agency and what everyone else can expect. There’s next to no doubt that had the A’s suffered temporary madness and offered DeJesus arbitration and he’d accepted, he would have gotten a raise -- the last guy who was even at risk for a pay cut within arbitration was Steve Avery with the Braves in 1996, and he won his case, getting a $200K raise from $4 million instead of the $400,000 pay cut that John Schuerholz and company asked for. The market is not the liberated remunerative paradise that it might seem to be in the abstract, and DeJesus just joined guys like Jack Cust in finding out about that unhappy fact of life.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Anyway, no sooner does it get noted the Chicago Cubs could use people who draw a walk now and again than Theo Epstein’s band of merry front-office mercs signed a guy who… draws a walk now and again, inking transient Athletics/former Royals outfielder David DeJesus to a two-year-plus-option contract. DeJesus will cost either $10 million to employ over two seasons (counting a buyout of the club option of 2014) or $15 million over three years.
My first reaction was superficial and positive -- after all, David DeJesus was once a heck of a player, if a bit fragile, and if he’s in demand first in Oakland and then in Wrigleyville, it means he’s getting the stamp of approval from both Billy Beane and Theo Epstein. And there are a few quick and easy takeaways from this, but upon reflection, not all of them are positive.
First, DeJesus had an awful 2011. You can blame that on the BABIP fairy if such is your inclination: He put up a career-low .274 average on balls in play, against his career average of .316. You can try to blame the always-tough Coliseum a little bit, although he had an equally miserable season on the road, with a .701 OPS away from Oakland against his .695 OPS at home. Whatever Oakland’s rep, he also wasn’t fouling out at a more prodigious rate.
What’s really troubling is that DeJesus was striking out at a career-worst 17 percent clip in 2011, more than three points worse than his next-worst campaign in the last six seasons. Dig into the data, and he was proving increasingly susceptible to off-speed stuff from right-handers while simply being owned by lefties. Maybe the Cubs see something they can fix, instead of just banking that $10-15 million on mere regression.
Second, DeJesus doesn’t actually walk that much. He’s patient, and he will be patient -- for a Cub. He’ll be the walk-iest Cub this side of Geovany Soto, but his career walk rate of 8.3 percent is just a hair below the MLB average (8.5).
Third, having DeJesus in the fold certainly frees the Cubs up to explore their outfield options, which is perhaps the best news the deal represents. He’ll be in right field unless/until Epstein’s crew somehow makes Alfonso Soriano and his monster contract and his no-trade clause go away. That’s highly unlikely, though.
An outfield of Soriano, Marlon Byrd in center and DeJesus in right is better than counting on Tyler Colvin or eventually top outfield prospect Brett Jackson, but not a whole lot better. But with Jackson nearing the majors and with DeJesus signed, Jed Hoyer and Epstein can that much more easily shop Byrd around. He’s in the last year of his deal and due $6.5 million, and everyday center fielders with good defense and a bat that won’t hurt you can have value on a contender unhappy with the market’s slim pickings. However, that’s a decision that can wait until one of a few things happen: The Cubs get an offer they can’t refuse, and/or Jackson looks great in spring training, and/or they hold Byrd until the deadline to try and land the best deal.
Finally, DeJesus’ deal reflects another economic reality that upsets a free peoples’ applecarts, which is that the inflationary pressure of salary arbitration rewarded DeJesus more than the open market did. Via arbitration, DeJesus made more in both 2010 ($4.7 million) and 2011 ($6 million) than he will in 2012 or 2013 ($4.25 million each year). That’s without adjusting for inflation, which would only make his new deal look worse. You can chalk this development up to a couple of things: DeJesus’ lousy 2011 season, or perhaps his quest for multi-year security instead of a single-season payday.
Or, perhaps most fundamentally, there’s the expanding gap between what the best players will get via free agency and what everyone else can expect. There’s next to no doubt that had the A’s suffered temporary madness and offered DeJesus arbitration and he’d accepted, he would have gotten a raise -- the last guy who was even at risk for a pay cut within arbitration was Steve Avery with the Braves in 1996, and he won his case, getting a $200K raise from $4 million instead of the $400,000 pay cut that John Schuerholz and company asked for. The market is not the liberated remunerative paradise that it might seem to be in the abstract, and DeJesus just joined guys like Jack Cust in finding out about that unhappy fact of life.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
NL Central: Three fixes for each team
November, 30, 2011
11/30/11
1:29
PM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
Now in its last-ever season as Bud Selig’s six-team division, the NL Central gave us the league’s pennant contenders, and figures to give us one of the most interesting offseasons of any division in baseball. Not least because the challenges confronting the Brewers and Cardinals are so very similar.
Milwaukee Brewers
1. First base: Open. (Prince Fielder, free agent)
Losing a batter of Fielder's quality and stature really shouldn't be the way the Brewers send off their 2011 season, but it remains to be seen whether they can afford to go dollar for dollar with the other teams that want him. If they fail to bring him back, they'll be hoping that the sporadically touted Mat Gamel finally breaks through. Gamel has spent most of the past three years at Triple-A Nashville, hitting .301/.374/.512 as a lefty power source -- or what figures to be a drop at the big league level from Fielder.
Likely solution: It's fairly straightforward. If they lose Fielder, they'll probably bank on Gamel, because he's a better choice than hauling in one of the second-tier free agents.
2. Shortstop: Open. (Yuniesky Betancourt, free agent)
The Brewers' situation is much like the Cardinals' in that if they don't keep their All-Star slugger at first, their highest priority won't be signing another first baseman, it'll be getting a shortstop. They've flirted with the best budget option, Rafael Furcal, but there's also been talk that they'd settle for bringing back Betancourt.
Likely solution: After Fielder signs elsewhere, it won't be surprising if getting a deal with Furcal done happens in short order. If they somehow manage to re-sign Fielder, bringing back Betancourt for much less than Furcal would cost becomes fairly likely.
3. Bullpen depth.
With Francisco Rodriguez and LaTroy Hawkins both on the move as free agents, finding adequate set-up help for closer John Axford becomes a significant item on GM Doug Melvin's shopping list. While you can hope that power lefty Zach Braddock will be back in the mix, after last season's problems they might also be interested in adding a veteran lefty.
Likely solution: They'll sign at least two veterans, but it won't be for huge money or longer for two years or year-plus-option deals.
St. Louis Cardinals
1. First base: Open. (Albert Pujols, free agent)
The blowback if the Cards fail to sign Pujols will be significant but survivable -- they did just win a World Series, after all. And if Pujols does leave, they're set to replace him on the field with Lance Berkman and in the lineup with Allen Craig (taking Berkman's place in right). If they keep Pujols, they'd certainly have a bargaining chip in Craig, which they might use to address their other issues, but it's likely they'd nevertheless keep him.
Likely solution: If they don't sign Pujols, they won't sign a first baseman.
2. Shortstop: Open. (Rafael Furcal, free agent)
Just like their division rivals in Milwaukee, the Cards' top priority if they don't land their superstar is to find a shortstop. While you might expect that a team throwing around the kind of money it will cost to keep Pujols could easily re-employ it to sign Jose Reyes, that doesn't seem likely, as the Cards really only seem committed to opening the wallet to keep their homegrown franchise player.
Likely solution: They beat the Brewers' bid for Furcal if they want to, or make Jimmy Rollins a happy man if they decide to make a longer-term commitment.
3. Second base: Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, Daniel Descalso
The Schumaker-Theriot platoon down the stretch was nice, but Schumaker still plays second base like a converted outfielder, while Theriot's last year before free agency might be an arbitration-inflated expense that GM John Mozeliak decides he'd rather not afford. Add in Descalso's line-drive pop and plus defense at the hot corner, and you've got a number of useful alternatives.
Likely solution: It depends how comfortable new manager Mike Matheny is with the fluid roster situations that Tony La Russa exploited with relish. Theriot can serve as the backup shortstop, Schumaker the chief reserve in center, while Descalso can be David Freese's defensive replacement and spotter at third. If Matheny's adaptive enough to exploit all of that, second base isn't a problem.
Cincinnati Reds
1. Sorting out the rotation.
After not really resolving the situation over 2011, the Reds are still confronted with tough choices from among six plausible alternatives for four rotation slots. (Thanks to still owing Bronson Arroyo $28.5 million, they're stuck with him in the other slot for two more years.) However, GM Walt Jocketty's choice seems to involve a lot of “none of the above,” given rumors that his offseason interests are focused on even more young starters, with Jair Jurrjens of the Braves or John Danks or Gavin Floyd of the White Sox getting mentioned.
Probable solution: Assuming that where there's smoke there's fire, expect the Reds to deal from offensive depth to land a starting pitcher, with some of the overflow splashing over into the bullpen.
2. Closer: Open (Francisco Cordero, free agent)
With the market already overstocked with closers, Jocketty sensibly ditched Cordero's $12 million option for 2012 to explore his alternatives. Then the early-acting Phillies prompted a small run on that market segment with their signing of Jonathan Papelbon, and with Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton already signed, the best fit for the Reds' homer-happy park might be ... Cordero, because Heath Bell is out of their price range, while Brad Lidge or Matt Capps would be a bit combustible.
Probable solution: Getting Cordero to come back for a multiyear deal for a lower average annual value on the deal ought to work for the two parties, but if cost is still an object, Jocketty could reach for a mid-market right-hander like Octavio Dotel or Frank Francisco as a placeholder, and groom Cuban flamethrower Aroldis Chapman for the role of save generator.
3. Lineup choices.
The fun challenge for the Reds will be seeing how they integrate the talent they have coming up. Devin Mesoraco should win a share of the catching duties, while Zack Cozart will give them a solid two-way player at short. Juan Francisco and Yonder Alonso could both slug their way into taking playing time from Chris Heisey in left, but Francisco could also start nabbing starts from Scott Rolen at third base.
Probable solution: Dusty Baker has built job-sharing set-ups in the past, so this mini youth movement won't get nipped in the bud. However, Alonso is getting dangled in trade talks; if he's dealt for a starting pitcher, that would at least kill those Joey Votto trade rumors deader than Elvis.
Pittsburgh Pirates
1. Third base: Pedro Alvarez.
Because the Pirates have already signed Rod Barajas to catch and Clint Barmes to play shortstop, their best hope for significant offensive improvement from baseball's worst in 2011, according to Baseball Prospectus' True Average, is going to be for Alvarez to turn into the guy they thought they were getting when they made him the second overall selection of the 2008 draft. A .561 OPS with bad defense simply isn't going to fly, but the danger for the Bucs is that they'll quit on Alvarez too soon -- he's already approaching club options for 2013 and 2014.
Likely solution: Other than working with Alvarez, there isn't one. If he continues to struggle, they can use Josh Harrison for singles and steals.
2. Offense from the corners.
They've already offered Derrek Lee arbitration, which would staff first base while keeping Garrett Jones in right field. But they also have Jose Tabata and Alex Presley to employ in the outfield corners. That doesn't really add up to great power from these three power slots, even if they keep Lee. A Jones-Lee platoon might sound great in the abstract, but you can bet that Lee wouldn't care for it, while Tabata's power is still mostly a matter of anticipation that he'll eventually have some. If Lee walks, platooning Jones with the recently signed Nick Evans is a cheap solution -- but still leaves the Bucs light on power.
Likely solution: Again, there isn't one. The farm system doesn't have the next Willie Stargell on tap.
3. Take stock.
For a team whose upside might scrape 80 wins, the Pirates already have a fairly settled lineup, rotation and bullpen. Shopping closer Joel Hanrahan might have made sense most winters, but with the closer market overstocked with options, there are few guarantees that GM Neal Huntington could add the kind of prospects to make it worthwhile. Gunning for ending the 19-season losing streak might be worthwhile, but if that's this team's upside, how excited about that should anyone really be?
Chicago Cubs
Not trying to be Zen-like about this, but the Cubs' issues transcend single positions and demand expansive solutions ...
1. Achieve closure. (Carlos Zambrano)
Before moving on to new business, the Cubs' new brain trust needs to be sure that it's finished up with the most noisome bit of old business. To get even a middling prospect, the Cubs would need to eat just about all of the $18 million that Zambrano's due and get him to waive his no-trade clause.
As tense as Big Z's relationship with his employers has been, you can understand some of his frustration -- moving him to the bullpen in 2010 was genuinely stupid, and who wouldn't get exasperated with being a Cub? Whether the choice is to clean the slate or make a deal, it's worthwhile to choose and move on.
Likely outcome: Unless the Marlins' idea of getting him to defer salary goes anywhere, get used to the idea that Zambrano will be with the Cubs in camp when pitchers and catchers report.
2. Acquire patience and power (6.9 percent walk rate, 29th in MLB)
This isn't just the fault of veterans Alfonso Soriano (5.3 percent walk rate in 2011) and Marlon Byrd (5.2); kids like Starlin Castro (4.9) and Darwin Barney (3.9) don't work their way aboard either. It's hard to sustain any kind of offense without baserunners, and right now the only regular with a walk rate better than league average is Geovany Soto. And with Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez vacating the infield corners, the Cubs are losing two of their best power sources.
Likely outcome: Top prospect Brett Jackson (73 walks in 512 PAs in the minors) will make the team at some point, likely replacing Byrd in center (if he's dealt). The Cubs just signed David DeJesus for right field, but short of re-signing Pena or landing either Pujols or Fielder to man first base, it's going to take some pretty creative wheeling and dealing to significantly improve matters in Year 1 of the Theo Epstein era.
3. Improve the defense (.699 Defensive Efficiency, 26th in MLB)
The new crew in charge talks about defense a bit, and it's easy to understand why, given the weak performance afield of the group it's inheriting. In particular, it's no secret that Castro's brand of shortstop play didn't do the Cubs any favors, as he ranked last among big league shortstops in Total Zone and BIS' Defensive Runs Saved.
Likely outcome: The upside of having a young star at short will mean a lot of extra infield practice for Castro in February, and Jackson will improve the outfield once he's up. But if Castro's footwork doesn't improve, moving him to third and the much more slick Barney to short (where his bat would profile better) could eventually be part of the solution.
Houston Astros
1. Picking a GM.
This is it, the wellspring from which everything else will flow, and hiring Ed Wade for the pointless kamikaze run of 2008 represents what you get when you choose the bitter dregs. The good news is that Jim Crane's gang certainly seems to have the right names on its short list, with GM Andrew Friedman of the Rays and Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine at the top. Guys like AGM Rick Hahn of the White Sox, DeJon Watson or Logan White from the Dodgers, former Royals GM Allard Baird or former D-backs AGM Peter Woodfork might also turn up. As many people as opted out of the Orioles' front-office gig may want in on Houston's.
Likely solution: It's entirely dependent on who gets interviewed and who makes the right impression, but it already looks like they've got the right people in mind. If they were only picking between Friedman and Levine, there wouldn't be a wrong answer.
2. Shortstop: Open (Barmes, departed to Pittsburgh as a free agent)
Barmes provided plus defense and modest offense, but cashed in on that already, leaving Houston with Angel Sanchez atop the depth chart. Sanchez's poor range translates into ugly defensive numbers. With the rotation representing one of the few assets the Astros can brag about, they'd do well to provide the men on the mound with an assist afield with a defensive upgrade.
Likely solution: The interim until they pick a GM could hamstring their efforts to get someone like Alex Gonzalez signed to help maintain the starting pitchers' value and hold the fort until Jon Villar or Jiovanni Mier is ready.
3. Outfield: Open.
“Open” not in the sense that the Astros are losing anybody of note, but in that the new GM is going to have to decide if some combination of Brian Bogusevic, J.D. Martinez, Jason Bourgeois and Jordan Schafer is really what he wants out there, with Carlos Lee to plant in left whenever he isn't at first base.
Likely solution: Don't be surprised if a cheap veteran who can play all three slots -- say, a guy like Fred Lewis -- gets added to the mix.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
A random post about Alfonso Soriano
September, 27, 2011
9/27/11
4:45
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Alfonso Soriano is, shall we say, a rather unique ballplayer. For the fourth time in his career he has a chance to finish with more home runs than walks (he has 25 home runs and 26 walks entering Tuesday's game). But here's my favorite stat that I just noticed: He has 25 home runs but just 49 runs this season.
I wondered if that is unique. Turns out it's actually not that odd to hit at least 25 home runs and score fewer than 50 runs. Including Soriano, it's been done 20 times, including by Jim Thome and Russell Branyan last season. The "record" belongs to Gus Triandos in 1959 and Johnny Mize in 1950, who both hit 25 home runs and scored 43 runs.
Triandos was a catcher, one of the slowest runners in the game's history -- he stole one base his entire career. He had 468 plate appearances in '59 and had a .330 on-base percentage (Soriano's is .286), and spent most of the season hitting fourth or fifth for the Orioles. Baltimore's six, seven and eight hitters, however, combined for just 20 home runs and a .231 average. Hall of Famer Mize was a 37-year-old part-time player for the Yankees in 1950 and slugged his 25 home runs in just 274 at-bats. He actually spent part of the first half on a minor league rehab assignment, battling a shoulder injury, and 23 of his 25 home runs came in the second half.
Special mention to Tony Clark, who hit 30 home runs for the Diamondbacks on 2005, but scored just 47 runs.
I wondered if that is unique. Turns out it's actually not that odd to hit at least 25 home runs and score fewer than 50 runs. Including Soriano, it's been done 20 times, including by Jim Thome and Russell Branyan last season. The "record" belongs to Gus Triandos in 1959 and Johnny Mize in 1950, who both hit 25 home runs and scored 43 runs.
Triandos was a catcher, one of the slowest runners in the game's history -- he stole one base his entire career. He had 468 plate appearances in '59 and had a .330 on-base percentage (Soriano's is .286), and spent most of the season hitting fourth or fifth for the Orioles. Baltimore's six, seven and eight hitters, however, combined for just 20 home runs and a .231 average. Hall of Famer Mize was a 37-year-old part-time player for the Yankees in 1950 and slugged his 25 home runs in just 274 at-bats. He actually spent part of the first half on a minor league rehab assignment, battling a shoulder injury, and 23 of his 25 home runs came in the second half.
Special mention to Tony Clark, who hit 30 home runs for the Diamondbacks on 2005, but scored just 47 runs.
The guide to fixing the Chicago Cubs
August, 21, 2011
8/21/11
11:53
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
The Chicago Cubs can be fixed. Just don’t be fooled by their recent stretch of 14 wins in 19 games. This isn’t a good team and probably won’t be a good team in 2012. Crack an egg, mix in some butter and start from scratch.
Bring in an experienced general manager.
Buster Olney reported Sunday that three possibilities to replace Jim Hendry are Yankees GM Brian Cashman (his contract expires at the end of the season), Billy Beane of the A’s and Tampa’s Andrew Friedman. While the trendy thing might to hire a young 33-year-old Ivy League grad, the smart move is to hire one the three guys above, who are not only fluent in advanced metrics but would come with the job security and patience required to rebuild the franchise.
Pay big bucks for the best scouting director, scouts and player development people you can hire.
The revolving door of signing mediocre veterans hasn’t worked. Giving playing time to guys like Xavier Nady or Carlos Pena aren't solutions; they’re caulking on a broken dam. The Cubs need to start thinking like the Red Sox and Yankees, which means: Develop your own talent and, if you sign a free agent, make sure he’s a star.
The last Cubs' first-rounder to develop into a star was Mark Prior, drafted in 2001. The Cubs had three other top-10 picks since 2000 and drafted high school hitters Luis Montanez, Ryan Harvey and Josh Vitters, none of whom developed as expected. (Vitters still has time; as he’s currently in Double-A, hitting .283 with 12 home runs, but just 17 walks). The last first-round hitter that developed into a solid major leaguer was Doug Glanville, drafted in 1991. The Cubs’ player development system has been broken for a long time. Compare that to the Red Sox, who developed Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and now Josh Reddick this decade. The Cubs have spent 20 years drafting athletes; the Red Sox have spent a decade drafting baseball players.
Realize that you’re stuck with Alfonso Soriano, but that you need a real left fielder.
Soriano is making $19 million each of the next three seasons. That money is spent, a sunk cost regardless of whether Soriano gets 600 at-bats or 60. Next season, that total should be closer to 60, not 600, as Soriano is now a one-dimensional player who pops the occasional home run but brings nothing else to the table, most notably the ability to get on base -- among 188 major league players with at least 350 plate appearances, Soriano’s .281 on-base percentage ranks 171st. That’s unacceptable for a left fielder.
Go after Prince Fielder, not Albert Pujols.
Fielder is four years younger, provides the left-handed power bat the Cubs need, and despite his girth is one of the most durable players in baseball, having missed just 12 games in six seasons. He may not be quite as good as Pujols, but he won’t cost as much and is arguably less of a long-term risk. Put it this way: I’d rather have Fielder for seven years and $154 million than Pujols for eight years and $225 million.
Recognize that Starlin Castro is a good player, but maybe not a franchise hitter … and maybe not a shortstop.
By that, I mean a hitter who will grow into his power and move down to third or fourth in the order, as many project for the 21-year-old. On the bright side, of 18 hitters since 1980 to accumulate at least 800 plate appearances through their age-21 season, Castro ranks behind only Alex Rodriguez with his .304 batting average. But with just 10 home runs in 992 at-bats, his power numbers are near the bottom of the list. That doesn’t mean the power won’t come -- it just means we don’t know if Castro is more likely to develop like Edgar Renteria or Gary Sheffield. More problematic has been his play at shortstop. I’d give Castro another year there, but down the road the Cubs may be better off moving Castro to second base and finding a better glove for shortstop.
Trade Marlon Byrd.
Byrd is a nice player who has hit .295 since 2007, but he’s not a big star and he turns 34 later this month. Byrd is signed for $6.5 million for 2012, making him an attractive trade option for a team in need of a center fielder. Byrd is unlikely to be around when the Cubs are good again, so getting something for him before his aging curve kicks in is vital. Give prospect Brett Jackson, currently tearing it up in Triple-A, a September audition and then the center-field job next season.
Yes, Darwin Barney is scrappy and “Kunane” is one of his two middle names. But don’t love him too much.
Cubs fans like Barney, but he’s the kind of disposable middle infielder that second-division clubs give starting jobs to, not championship teams. Even if he hits .296 again -- and that is unlikely -- Barney has no power and doesn’t draw enough walks for a guy with no power. He’s OK as a stopgap, but it’s a big mistake if he’s still the starting second baseman in three years.
Dump Carlos Zambrano.
Like Soriano, the money is a sunk cost. At this point, Zambrano just isn’t good enough to warrant the headaches he creates. Put him in on waivers the day the season ends and just eat the money.
Be patient.
Don’t try to fix this in one season. The Cubs have been patching it together year by year for too long. It did all come together with a 97-win season in 2008, but that type of scenario is rare. Jim Hendry was never willing to bite the bullet and rebuild, but it’s time. Be patient, give the new GM the same resources as Hendry, and there’s no reason the Cubs shouldn’t turn into a consistent winner like the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies or Cardinals.
Oh, and quit blaming the *&*(#!@ goat.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Charles LeClaire/US PresswireAndrew McCutchen couldn't get the baseball, but at least he found the ketchup.
Jeff Gross/Getty ImagesAs a rookie in 2001, Ichiro hit .350, stole 56 bases, scored 127 runs and won MVP honors.Adam Dunn
At the end of the 2010 season, Dunn was considered the most consistent player in baseball. For seven years, he had hit between 38 and 46 home runs (including four straight years of 40 homers) with between 92 and 106 RBIs. With over 350 home runs in 10 seasons, it appeared Dunn would easily approach some important milestones. However, in 2011, the bottom has fallen out, and Dunn has struggled to approach a .300 slugging percentage thanks to his .163 average. Dunn's progression into a prodigious slugger was fun to watch, but there is a real possibility that those days are over.
Highlight: Hitting 46 home runs in 2004, becoming the slugger everyone had predicted.
Hall call: If Dunn can produce a couple more 40-homer seasons, he will approach 500 career home runs. It would be difficult to ignore that number, although Dunn's low batting average and poor fielding would likely keep him out.
David Eckstein
Just by reaching the major league level, Eckstein was a feel-good kind of story. One of the shortest players in baseball, Eckstein carved out a niche by hitting, fielding, running, and hustling enough to help teams for 10 years. While he had a nice career, when compared to the other players on this list, Eckstein falls far short. Eckstein's career high in slugging was .395; by contrast, Michael Young has surpassed that number every full season.
Highlight: Winning the World Series with the Angels 2002 and winning World Series MVP honors with the Cardinals in 2006.
Hall call: Though he'll have plenty of stories to tell, Eckstein will not get to tell them in Cooperstown.
Roy Oswalt
Oswalt debuted on May 6 and immediately became one of the best pitchers in the National League, finishing with 14 wins and a 2.73 ERA. In a year of great rookie seasons, Oswalt was one of the best. It got better from there; after winning 19 games in his sophomore season, Oswalt has twice won 20 games, had an ERA of 3.01 or better in six of his 11 seasons and led the NL with a 2.98 mark in 2006. Though his strikeout rate is lower than his first few years, Oswalt should have a few more years in him if he can avoid the injuries that have hurt him this year.
Highlight: Winning Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS, pitching seven innings to lead the Astros to their first World Series berth.
Hall call: Though Oswalt has been called an ace his whole career, it's been awhile since he dominated the league, other than his stint late last season with the Phillies. He's on a good team, so if he can stick around and increase his counting stats, along with some postseason memories, he might have a shot.
Albert Pujols
In 2001, Pujols had just turned 21 and was thrust into the starting gig at third base, with only a few games above Class A ball. Pujols had a season for the ages, hitting 37 home runs, 47 doubles, with a robust 1.013 OPS. Pujols managed to exceed his seemingly unlimited potential and dominated baseball over the next decade, with a .328 career average and three MVP Awards.
Highlight: 2005 NLCS home run off Brad Lidge that is still going.
Hall call: Five years after his retirement, Pujols will coast into the Hall of Fame.
Jimmy Rollins
From the time he put on his first Phillies uniform, Jimmy Rollins was exciting. As a rookie, Rollins hit 14 home runs and stole 46 bases. For a team in the midst of losing franchise stalwarts Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen, Rollins was a breath of fresh air. Rollins never did get on base nearly enough, and while he eventually developed some pop and the speed is still around, he has never posted an on-base percentage of even .350. By contrast, teammate Chase Utley hasn't posted an OBP below .375 in any full season of his career.
Highlight: Being named the 2007 National League Most Valuable Player when he scored 139 runs and had 88 extra-base his, including 20 triples and 30 home runs.
Hall call: Rollins is approaching 2,000 career hits and still has a few years left, but the .272 career average and .329 on-base percentage could certainly sway voters against him.
CC Sabathia
Sabathia turned 21 during the 2001 season. Despite his youth, he pitched like he had plenty of experience, winning 17 games and striking out 171 batters in 180 innings. After a few modest years, Sabathia turned into an ace in 2006 and became a regular Cy Young contender. Still only 31, Sabathia has over 170 wins and 2,300 innings, showing no signs of slowing down.
Highlight: Clinching the 2008 National League wild card on three days' rest for the Brewers.
Hall call: Sabathia seems like an obvious Hall of Famer, but there are plenty of cautionary tales among pitchers who came up early and seemed like Cooperstown locks.
Ben Sheets
Sheets started his career like many rookies. The hype of a top prospect -- he even made the All-Star Game -- gave way to major league mediocrity, with enough potential demonstrated to spark much debate about the future. In 2004, Sheets dominated, having a season for the ages with a 2.70 ERA and 264 strikeouts. Though Sheets' teammates could only help him to 12 wins, his season was a great one. Unfortunately, that was as far as his brilliance reached, as injury issues affected his performance. Sheets still hasn't been able to recapture the magic and might not have much left in his arm.
Highlight: 2004, a great pitcher on a bad team.
Hall call: Is there a Hall of Fame for potential?
Alfonso Soriano
Sometimes, the much-hyped prospects actually come through. Soriano was a ballyhooed Yankee prospect and hit right away, with 18 home runs and 43 stolen bases as a rookie. The power developed, and Soriano became a rare dual threat who terrorized opposing pitchers, including four 30-30 seasons. For all his strengths, Soriano never drew many walks, which has led to an unimpressive career on-base percentage of .323. Worse, that mark seems to be ever-decreasing, as Soriano has been below that level every season since 2008.
Highlight: Hitting the would-be winning home run in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series versus Arizona.
Hall call: Soriano was certainly one of the most exciting players of his generation and spent most of his career in New York and Chicago. At the end of the day, the power and speed won't be enough to overcome the other flaws in his game.
Ichiro Suzuki
Ichiro had almost 1,300 hits and a .943 OPS in eight seasons in Japan. Naturally, lofty expectations were set when he came to the United States in 2001. Right off the bat, he hit well, and really didn't stop until his mysterious drop-off this season. Ichiro plays almost every game, excels in the field and on the basepaths and has hit over .350 four times. No matter how it ends, Ichiro's legacy will be impressive; the icing on the cake will be if he enters (and wins) the Home Run Derby.
Highlight: Setting the all-time single-season hits mark in 2004.
Hall call: Even without his Japan stats, Ichiro's career numbers are terrific, especially his defense and 80 percent stolen base rate. He should make it to Cooperstown on his first ballot.
Michael Young
Young was 24 when he became a Rangers regular, which is older than where most stars begin. Young proved to be one of the most consistent and versatile players in baseball. He's had modest power, a small amount of speed, and played over 300 games at three different positions. Young has always hit around .300 but rarely walked so never threatened to lead the league in OBP. Despite trade rumors and position shifts, Young has continued to play at a high level into his mid-30s.
Highlight: Winning the 2006 All-Star Game MVP.
Hall call: With 2,000 hits and counting, Young might someday approach counting stat totals that will make the discussion interesting, although he was certainly never close to the best player in the league.
David Lipman is a senior manager for ESPN Mobile, and you can follow him on Twitter.
It was time for Jim Hendry to go
August, 19, 2011
8/19/11
12:21
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Some positive things happened under Jim Hendry's tenure: In his first season as Chicago Cubs general manager in 2003, the club won 88 games and reached the NLCS. The Cubs won another NL Central division title in 2007 and in 2008 won 97 games, the most for the Cubs since 1945. Unfortunately, both seasons ended in depressing sweeps in the first round of the postseason and were then followed by three disappointing seasons with bloated payrolls. In the end, Hendry followed the same path as Andy MacPhail and Ed Lynch and Jim Frey and Dallas Green and Bob Kennedy and Salty Saltwell and John Holland: He failed to get the Cubs to a World Series.
It was time for the Cubs to fire Hendry. Although you can give him credit for building the 2008 team that won the most games in the National League, it was his failure to understand how that team was a house of cards ready to collapse and how that led to the current situation: The Cubs have the sixth-highest payroll in the majors and are 54-70, sitting in fifth place in a weak division. Last season, the Cubs had the third-highest payroll and finished 75-87. No GM is going to keep his job with high payrolls and losing records, but to make matters worse, the Cubs are a boring, old team without an obvious bright future. The only regulars younger than 28 are Matt Garza, Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney, and Barney is not a championship-level player long-term. Even signing Albert Pujols this offseason wouldn't fix the Cubs.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Charles Rex ArbogastThe Cubs fired GM Jim Hendry on July 22, but he wanted to help the team by staying on through the July 31 trading deadline.
AP Photo/Charles Rex ArbogastThe Cubs fired GM Jim Hendry on July 22, but he wanted to help the team by staying on through the July 31 trading deadline.In 2007, Hendry signed Carlos Zambrano to a contract extension in August. "His best years are ahead of him, and the Cubs know that we have one of the top pitchers in baseball for a long time," Hendry said at the news conference. One of the top pitchers in baseball? Really? Zambrano had posted a 3.41 ERA in 2006 and led the major leagues in walks with 115. At the time of his signing he had a 3.86 ERA, on his way to again leading the league in walks. But Hendry made him one of the highest-paid pitchers in baseball -- and this despite Zambrano complaining all season about his contract and getting into a brawl earlier in the season with teammate Michael Barrett. Considering his hothead reputation and the number of innings he pitched at a young age, Zambrano's decline into mediocrity and knucklehead reactions were all too entirely predictable. Everybody saw it except Hendry.
Six of the eight regulars on the 2008 roster were older than 30, with only 25-year-old Geovany Soto and 28-year-old shortstop Ryan Theriot on the "young" side. Yet the only addition Hendry made for 2009 was to add ... Milton Bradley. Yes, that one didn't work too well. The Cubs have been too right-handed at the plate for years, a problem Hendry was unable to fix. He traded Ted Lilly and got nothing but Blake DeWitt, who couldn't beat out Barney. He failed to build any pitching depth in Triple-A, meaning the Cubs had to resort to guys like Casey Coleman and Doug Davis in the rotation this year, guys who predictably got hammered. The minor league system hasn't been productive.
So, yes, it was time for Hendry to go. He's well-liked in baseball circles, and I'm sure he'll get a job with another organization. As for the Cubs, it's back to the drawing board. Assistant GM Randy Bush takes over for now, but I'm sure owner Tom Ricketts will go outside the organization for a new GM. I wish the guy a lot of luck ... after all, the Cubs are already paying $65 million next season just for Soriano, Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Marlon Byrd and Carlos Marmol.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Reyes back on DL; goodbye Crawford $?
August, 9, 2011
8/09/11
12:17
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Jose Reyes landed on the disabled list for the second time this season with hamstring issues, and Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com asks how this will affect Reyes' free-agent payday. Can Reyes expect a deal similar to what Boston gave Carl Crawford -- seven years, $142 million?
Reyes was having an MVP campaign, but after missing just 14 games from 2005 through 2008, he's now missed 126 games in 2009, 29 games in 2010 and now he'll miss about 30 in 2011, assuming his current DL stint lasts two weeks.
An easy way to check the likelihood of Reyes getting Crawford-type money is to check the injury history of other players who signed the biggest deals in MLB history. Here are the injury histories of all position players who signed $125 million-plus contracts.
Alex Rodriguez ($275M, 2008-17): Through 2007, A-Rod had played 154-plus games seven years in a row. But he hasn't played 140 since.
Derek Jeter ($189M, 2001-10): This season will be only the second time in his career Jeter has played fewer than 148 games.
Joe Mauer ($184M, 2011-18): Mauer had suffered various leg ailments as a rookie in 2004 that limited him to 35 games. He played just 109 games in 2007. He'd suffered back issues in spring training in 2009. He was a risky investment.
Mark Teixeira ($180M, 2009-16): One of the most durable players in the majors, Teixeira has had just two minor DL stints in his career.
Manny Ramirez ($160M, 2001-08): Ramirez signed his big deal despite missing 39 games in 2000 with a left hamstring injury. He'd play 150-plus games four years out of the eight-year contract, with a low of 120 in 2002.
Troy Tulowitzki ($157.7M, 2011-20): An interesting test case, as Tulo missed 61 games in 2008 and 40 games last year. He's been healthy in 2011, missing just five games.
Adrian Gonzalez ($154M, 2012-18): Gonzalez had missed just 11 games over five seasons when the Red Sox acquired him.
Miguel Cabrera ($152.3M, 2008-15): He's never been on the DL and has missed just 29 games over eight seasons.
Crawford ($142M, 2011-17): He missed six weeks in 2008 with a finger injury and 19 games in 2007, but had played 150-plus his six other seasons.
Todd Helton ($141.5M, 2003-11): Had never been on the DL at the time of the extension, although he'd suffer through back problems during the contract and top 100 RBIs just once.
Alfonso Soriano ($136M, 2007-14): A terrible contract for an overrated player, but not because of any injury history.
Vernon Wells ($126M, 2008-14): He'd missed 28 games in 2004, but it's not his health that has made this a terrible deal.
Jayson Werth ($126M, 2011-17): Werth missed all of 2006 with a wrist injury but had missed just nine games combined in 2009-10.
Ryan Howard ($125M, 2012-16): Howard's extension signed last April doesn't even kick in until next season. Health isn't an issue, but declining numbers are.
Two players -- Mauer and Tulowitzki -- had enough injury history to raise a red flag at the time of their mega-contracts. It's important to note both were signed by their original teams, so that could be an indicator that if any team is willing to give Reyes a $125 million deal, it might be the Mets. (Well, if they have the money to do so.)
How much would you pay for Reyes? Vote in the poll.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Reyes was having an MVP campaign, but after missing just 14 games from 2005 through 2008, he's now missed 126 games in 2009, 29 games in 2010 and now he'll miss about 30 in 2011, assuming his current DL stint lasts two weeks.
An easy way to check the likelihood of Reyes getting Crawford-type money is to check the injury history of other players who signed the biggest deals in MLB history. Here are the injury histories of all position players who signed $125 million-plus contracts.
Alex Rodriguez ($275M, 2008-17): Through 2007, A-Rod had played 154-plus games seven years in a row. But he hasn't played 140 since.
Derek Jeter ($189M, 2001-10): This season will be only the second time in his career Jeter has played fewer than 148 games.
Joe Mauer ($184M, 2011-18): Mauer had suffered various leg ailments as a rookie in 2004 that limited him to 35 games. He played just 109 games in 2007. He'd suffered back issues in spring training in 2009. He was a risky investment.
Mark Teixeira ($180M, 2009-16): One of the most durable players in the majors, Teixeira has had just two minor DL stints in his career.
Manny Ramirez ($160M, 2001-08): Ramirez signed his big deal despite missing 39 games in 2000 with a left hamstring injury. He'd play 150-plus games four years out of the eight-year contract, with a low of 120 in 2002.
Troy Tulowitzki ($157.7M, 2011-20): An interesting test case, as Tulo missed 61 games in 2008 and 40 games last year. He's been healthy in 2011, missing just five games.
Adrian Gonzalez ($154M, 2012-18): Gonzalez had missed just 11 games over five seasons when the Red Sox acquired him.
Miguel Cabrera ($152.3M, 2008-15): He's never been on the DL and has missed just 29 games over eight seasons.
Crawford ($142M, 2011-17): He missed six weeks in 2008 with a finger injury and 19 games in 2007, but had played 150-plus his six other seasons.
Todd Helton ($141.5M, 2003-11): Had never been on the DL at the time of the extension, although he'd suffer through back problems during the contract and top 100 RBIs just once.
Alfonso Soriano ($136M, 2007-14): A terrible contract for an overrated player, but not because of any injury history.
Vernon Wells ($126M, 2008-14): He'd missed 28 games in 2004, but it's not his health that has made this a terrible deal.
Jayson Werth ($126M, 2011-17): Werth missed all of 2006 with a wrist injury but had missed just nine games combined in 2009-10.
Ryan Howard ($125M, 2012-16): Howard's extension signed last April doesn't even kick in until next season. Health isn't an issue, but declining numbers are.
Two players -- Mauer and Tulowitzki -- had enough injury history to raise a red flag at the time of their mega-contracts. It's important to note both were signed by their original teams, so that could be an indicator that if any team is willing to give Reyes a $125 million deal, it might be the Mets. (Well, if they have the money to do so.)
How much would you pay for Reyes? Vote in the poll.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Are teams smarter than they used to be?
June, 17, 2011
6/17/11
5:50
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
So, Thomas Neumann of Page 2 sent me this picture of a Sports Illustrated cover, listing all the millionaire players from 1985. I think Thomas was working on a career retrospective of John Denny or something, I'm not sure. (OK, he actually interviewed Mike Schmidt.) Anyway, it got me thinking: What if we compare the highest-paid players from 1985 to the highest-paid players of 2011 ... and find out if teams are smarter than they were in 1985. After all, front offices know much more than they used to, right? With all the advanced metrics out there, all the Ivy League dudes making the decisions and so on, you'd expect smarter moves being made by front offices.
Let's take the top 25 players from that 1985 cover, the top 25 highest-paid players of 2011 and check their Wins Above Replacement level (WAR) from Baseball-Reference.com. For 2011, we'll using their current WAR prorated to the entire season.
1985 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Mike Schmidt ($2.1M): 5.3 WAR
2. Jim Rice ($2.1M): 1.1 WAR
3. George Foster ($1.9M): 1.5 WAR
4. Dave Winfield ($1.7M): 2.8 WAR
5. Gary Carter ($1.7M): 6.7 WAR
6. Dale Murphy ($1.6M): 5.3 WAR
7. Bob Horner ($1.5M): 1.8 WAR
8. Rickey Henderson ($1.5M): 10.0 WAR
9. Eddie Murray ($1.4M): 6.0 WAR
10. Bruce Sutter ($1.3M): -0.1 WAR
11. Ozzie Smith ($1.3M): 5.7 WAR
12. Jack Clark ($1.3M): 3.3 WAR
13. Robin Yount ($1.3M): 1.7 WAR
14. Pedro Guerrero ($1.3M): 7.8 WAR
15. Rick Sucliffe ($1.3M): 2.8 WAR
16. Fernando Valenzuela ($1.2M): 5.6 WAR
17. Goose Gossage ($1.2M): 2.6 WAR
18. Tim Raines ($1.2M): 7.5 WAR
19. Steve Kemp ($1.2M): -0.2 WAR
20. Steve Carlton ($1.2M): 1.2 WAR
21. Andre Dawson ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
22. Keith Hernandez ($1.1M): 4.9 WAR
23. Mario Soto ($1.1M): 3.6 WAR
24. Andre Thornton ($1.1M): 0.0 WAR
25. Fred Lynn ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
Total salary: $34.8 million.
Total major payroll in 1985: About $264.7 million.
Percentage of total payroll: 13.1 percent.
Total WAR: 90.9.
2011 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Alex Rodriguez ($32.0M): 5.3 WAR
2. Vernon Wells ($26.2M): -1.4 WAR
3. CC Sabathia ($24.3M): 4.6 WAR
4. Mark Teixeira ($23.1M): 3.9 WAR
5. Joe Mauer ($23.0M): -0.5 WAR
6. Johan Santana ($21.6M): Injured
7. Todd Helton ($20.3M): 3.9 WAR
8. Miguel Cabrera ($20.0M): 6.7 WAR
9. Roy Halladay ($20.0M): 9.2 WAR
10. Ryan Howard ($20.0M): 2.5 WAR
11. Carlos Beltran ($19.3M): 5.1 WAR
12. Carlos Lee ($19.0M): 3.0 WAR
13. Alfonso Soriano ($19.0M): 1.2 WAR
14. Carlos Zambrano ($18.9M): 2.8 WAR
15. Torii Hunter ($18.5M): -0.7 WAR
16. Barry Zito ($18.5M): -0.5 WAR
17. Jason Bay ($18.1M): 0.0 WAR
18. Ichiro Suzuki ($18.0M): 0.5 WAR
19. Josh Beckett ($17.0M): 9.2 WAR
20. A.J. Burnett ($16.5M): 2.3 WAR
21. Matt Holliday ($16.3M): 5.1 WAR
22. Michael Young ($16.1M): 1.8 WAR
23. Roy Oswalt ($16.0M): 3.7 WAR
24. Jake Peavy ($16.0M): 0.7 WAR
25. John Lackey ($15.9M): -2.5 WAR
Total salary: $493.6 million.
Total major payroll in 2011: About $2.786 billion.
Percentage of total payroll: 17.7 percent.
Total prorated WAR: 65.9.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Major league owners in 2011 are paying a higher percentage of their total payroll to the top 25 players and receiving far less production. Even if you account for better seasons the rest of the way from the likes of Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki and Torii Hunter and John Lackey, the 2011 group wouldn't come close to matching the 1985 group in total WAR.
What's amazing is to look at the 2011 list and realize how many of those guys were never superstar players: Vernon Wells? Carlos Lee? Torii Hunter? Michael Young? A.J. Burnett? Barry Zito? Please. Good players at one point, never superstars.
Another way to look at it: Of the top 25 position players in B-R's WAR in 2011, only ONE (Miguel Cabrera) is one of the top-25 highest-paid players. In 1985, nine of the top 25 position players were among the 25 highest-paid players.
Also, in 2011, 10 of the top-25 highest-paid players are pitchers -- who inherently are more risky. Of those 11, five have spent time on the DL this season.
So, nice job major league owners and general managers! You're collectively, umm ... well, let's just say that Vernon Wells isn't worth $26.2 million.
Follow Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield and check out the SweetSpot Facebook page.
Let's take the top 25 players from that 1985 cover, the top 25 highest-paid players of 2011 and check their Wins Above Replacement level (WAR) from Baseball-Reference.com. For 2011, we'll using their current WAR prorated to the entire season.
1985 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Mike Schmidt ($2.1M): 5.3 WAR
2. Jim Rice ($2.1M): 1.1 WAR
3. George Foster ($1.9M): 1.5 WAR
4. Dave Winfield ($1.7M): 2.8 WAR
5. Gary Carter ($1.7M): 6.7 WAR
6. Dale Murphy ($1.6M): 5.3 WAR
7. Bob Horner ($1.5M): 1.8 WAR
8. Rickey Henderson ($1.5M): 10.0 WAR
9. Eddie Murray ($1.4M): 6.0 WAR
10. Bruce Sutter ($1.3M): -0.1 WAR
11. Ozzie Smith ($1.3M): 5.7 WAR
12. Jack Clark ($1.3M): 3.3 WAR
13. Robin Yount ($1.3M): 1.7 WAR
14. Pedro Guerrero ($1.3M): 7.8 WAR
15. Rick Sucliffe ($1.3M): 2.8 WAR
16. Fernando Valenzuela ($1.2M): 5.6 WAR
17. Goose Gossage ($1.2M): 2.6 WAR
18. Tim Raines ($1.2M): 7.5 WAR
19. Steve Kemp ($1.2M): -0.2 WAR
20. Steve Carlton ($1.2M): 1.2 WAR
21. Andre Dawson ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
22. Keith Hernandez ($1.1M): 4.9 WAR
23. Mario Soto ($1.1M): 3.6 WAR
24. Andre Thornton ($1.1M): 0.0 WAR
25. Fred Lynn ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
Total salary: $34.8 million.
Total major payroll in 1985: About $264.7 million.
Percentage of total payroll: 13.1 percent.
Total WAR: 90.9.
2011 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Alex Rodriguez ($32.0M): 5.3 WAR
2. Vernon Wells ($26.2M): -1.4 WAR
3. CC Sabathia ($24.3M): 4.6 WAR
4. Mark Teixeira ($23.1M): 3.9 WAR
5. Joe Mauer ($23.0M): -0.5 WAR
6. Johan Santana ($21.6M): Injured
7. Todd Helton ($20.3M): 3.9 WAR
8. Miguel Cabrera ($20.0M): 6.7 WAR
9. Roy Halladay ($20.0M): 9.2 WAR
10. Ryan Howard ($20.0M): 2.5 WAR
11. Carlos Beltran ($19.3M): 5.1 WAR
12. Carlos Lee ($19.0M): 3.0 WAR
13. Alfonso Soriano ($19.0M): 1.2 WAR
14. Carlos Zambrano ($18.9M): 2.8 WAR
15. Torii Hunter ($18.5M): -0.7 WAR
16. Barry Zito ($18.5M): -0.5 WAR
17. Jason Bay ($18.1M): 0.0 WAR
18. Ichiro Suzuki ($18.0M): 0.5 WAR
19. Josh Beckett ($17.0M): 9.2 WAR
20. A.J. Burnett ($16.5M): 2.3 WAR
21. Matt Holliday ($16.3M): 5.1 WAR
22. Michael Young ($16.1M): 1.8 WAR
23. Roy Oswalt ($16.0M): 3.7 WAR
24. Jake Peavy ($16.0M): 0.7 WAR
25. John Lackey ($15.9M): -2.5 WAR
Total salary: $493.6 million.
Total major payroll in 2011: About $2.786 billion.
Percentage of total payroll: 17.7 percent.
Total prorated WAR: 65.9.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Major league owners in 2011 are paying a higher percentage of their total payroll to the top 25 players and receiving far less production. Even if you account for better seasons the rest of the way from the likes of Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki and Torii Hunter and John Lackey, the 2011 group wouldn't come close to matching the 1985 group in total WAR.
What's amazing is to look at the 2011 list and realize how many of those guys were never superstar players: Vernon Wells? Carlos Lee? Torii Hunter? Michael Young? A.J. Burnett? Barry Zito? Please. Good players at one point, never superstars.
Another way to look at it: Of the top 25 position players in B-R's WAR in 2011, only ONE (Miguel Cabrera) is one of the top-25 highest-paid players. In 1985, nine of the top 25 position players were among the 25 highest-paid players.
Also, in 2011, 10 of the top-25 highest-paid players are pitchers -- who inherently are more risky. Of those 11, five have spent time on the DL this season.
So, nice job major league owners and general managers! You're collectively, umm ... well, let's just say that Vernon Wells isn't worth $26.2 million.
Follow Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield and check out the SweetSpot Facebook page.
Are teams playing better defenders in left?
June, 8, 2011
6/08/11
10:00
AM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
One popular notion in some sabermetric circles these days is that defense in the outfield corners is getting better, proof positive that teams are taking defense much more seriously. It’s an interesting theory, and fits with the preconceived notion that certain defensive metrics have descriptive value. Accept the data and you can accept the result.
That’s all easy enough to believe, especially if you want to discover a new trend, but what if the data isn’t reliably reflected across the various defensive metrics? And what if it flies in the face of what we see in terms of who it is that teams are actually playing in left field?
Consider who was playing in left field last season in the National League. To belabor the obvious, the NL doesn’t have the DH, so there’s an automatic incentive to take a defensive hit and get a bopper’s bat in the lineup from the position that winds up seeing fewer chances than infielders or center fielders do. Looking at everyone who played 500 or more innings in left last season, do these sound like the “better fielders” that have been advertised?
Not that there’s a direct-causal relationship, but it’s more than a little amusing to note that three of the league’s playoff teams last year were starting Burrell, Ibanez, and Gomes -- players not usually associated with their defensive contributions, and three guys who have had to spend good chunks of time as designated hitters after moving away from their initial positions as prospects.
Admittedly, the outfielders who stayed as outfielders make for an interesting crew. Milledge, Parra, Smith, Tabata and Bay all got chances as center fielders early on in their careers, either in the minors or even briefly in the majors. But none of them were ever expected to stick in center and were corner-bound early on. They’re also not all good outfielders, mind you; Bay hasn’t graded out as any better than mediocre in any of several venues via several metrics. But Parra, Holliday and Tabata all offer positive value afield, and Parra and Tabata are recent enough arrivals to represent some form of validation for a “recent defensive improvement” theory.
Among the ex-infielders, Braun, however athletic he was as a college shortstop once upon a time, proved to be a bad third baseman, had a rough first year in left in 2008, but seems to have become a better left fielder in the past season-plus, at least according to Total Zone, Plus/Minus and Fielding Runs.
It’s everyone else where you start running into problems. Ibanez, Lee and Soriano would probably be DHs in the AL if their contracts didn’t keep them planted in left field for their respective ballclubs. All three provide awful defense. Willingham grades reliably poorly, as does Gomes. Morrison is a big galoot and giving left field his best shot, but it would be hard to call him an obvious success. If you want to be generous, you can compare his move to left to Willingham’s, or perhaps to the Rockies’ success with their decision to move Brad Hawpe to right field to get his bat in the lineup earlier in the decade. That was a defensive hit the Rockies were willing to take for the offensive boost; it was an idea that helped get them a pennant, but that doesn’t sound much like a better brand of defense getting played in the outfield.
If you want to get really skeptical about the data, you might note that Burrell has done extremely well for the Giants according to several metrics, which probably seems strange after three bad years in left for the Phillies, which preceded the Rays’ signing him to DH. To my way of thinking, that just goes toward how much confidence we can invest in any interpretive defensive metric -- the information is suggestive, but not conclusive. What is incontrovertible is that one of the so-called “smart” teams, the Rays, as performance analysis-aided as anybody in the industry, took one look at Burrell and said “DH.” Does this mean the Rays were dumb? Of course it doesn’t, especially when the Rays get -- and deserve -- credit for doing so much to improve their defense between 2007 and 2008 to aid their massive turnaround as a franchise.
So, maybe things changed for the better in 2011, right? Coghlan moved to center, while Milledge moved to the International League. You can add Ryan Ludwick of the Padres to the latest list of regulars -- he fits into the outfielders-playing-outfield group, and does it well. The Braves moved Martin Prado out of the infield because of his bad glove; according to Total Zone and Fielding Runs he remains a liability as a left fielder, while UZR and Plus/Minus think he’s just fine out there. That doesn’t sound conclusive one way or another, but it’s early yet. Maybe he’ll be the next Braun, or the next Soriano.
In the absence of any compelling trend, what might be especially interesting is that for all the talk of improvement, one thing has been damnably consistent over the past decade. Per Baseball-Reference.com, in 1990, left fielders were catching 48 percent of all fly balls. In 2000, they were catching 47 percent of all fly balls, and in 2009 they were catching 47 percent of all fly balls. Last year, with all this improving going on, left fielders caught 46 percent of all fly balls hit in their direction. So far this year it’s at 49 percent. And all of this while there are fewer balls in play as the strikeout rates keep going higher. Maybe it’s just me, but maybe the teams like the Giants and Reds and Phillies and Marlins, and perhaps now the Braves, have gone for a bat in left field, maybe they’re the ones onto something elegant and classic: putting boppers in a bopper’s slot.
That’s all easy enough to believe, especially if you want to discover a new trend, but what if the data isn’t reliably reflected across the various defensive metrics? And what if it flies in the face of what we see in terms of who it is that teams are actually playing in left field?
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AP Photo/Morry GashRyan Braun's play in left field has improved since he moved there in 2008.
AP Photo/Morry GashRyan Braun's play in left field has improved since he moved there in 2008.- Six plain-old outfielders who were and are outfielders: Jason Bay, Mets; Matt Holliday, Cardinals; Lastings Milledge, Pirates; Gerardo Parra, D’backs; Seth Smith, Rockies; Jose Tabata, Pirates
- Four ex-infielders (non-first base position): Ryan Braun, Brewers (3B); Chris Coghlan, Marlins (2B); Carlos Lee, Astros (3B); Alfonso Soriano, Cubs (2B)
- Two ex-DHs: Pat Burrell, Giants; Jonny Gomes, Reds
- Two ex-catchers: Raul Ibanez, Phillies; Josh Willingham, Nationals
- One ex-first baseman: Logan Morrison, Marlins
Not that there’s a direct-causal relationship, but it’s more than a little amusing to note that three of the league’s playoff teams last year were starting Burrell, Ibanez, and Gomes -- players not usually associated with their defensive contributions, and three guys who have had to spend good chunks of time as designated hitters after moving away from their initial positions as prospects.
Admittedly, the outfielders who stayed as outfielders make for an interesting crew. Milledge, Parra, Smith, Tabata and Bay all got chances as center fielders early on in their careers, either in the minors or even briefly in the majors. But none of them were ever expected to stick in center and were corner-bound early on. They’re also not all good outfielders, mind you; Bay hasn’t graded out as any better than mediocre in any of several venues via several metrics. But Parra, Holliday and Tabata all offer positive value afield, and Parra and Tabata are recent enough arrivals to represent some form of validation for a “recent defensive improvement” theory.
Among the ex-infielders, Braun, however athletic he was as a college shortstop once upon a time, proved to be a bad third baseman, had a rough first year in left in 2008, but seems to have become a better left fielder in the past season-plus, at least according to Total Zone, Plus/Minus and Fielding Runs.
It’s everyone else where you start running into problems. Ibanez, Lee and Soriano would probably be DHs in the AL if their contracts didn’t keep them planted in left field for their respective ballclubs. All three provide awful defense. Willingham grades reliably poorly, as does Gomes. Morrison is a big galoot and giving left field his best shot, but it would be hard to call him an obvious success. If you want to be generous, you can compare his move to left to Willingham’s, or perhaps to the Rockies’ success with their decision to move Brad Hawpe to right field to get his bat in the lineup earlier in the decade. That was a defensive hit the Rockies were willing to take for the offensive boost; it was an idea that helped get them a pennant, but that doesn’t sound much like a better brand of defense getting played in the outfield.
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Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesRyan Ludwick is a steady presence in left field for the Padres.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesRyan Ludwick is a steady presence in left field for the Padres.So, maybe things changed for the better in 2011, right? Coghlan moved to center, while Milledge moved to the International League. You can add Ryan Ludwick of the Padres to the latest list of regulars -- he fits into the outfielders-playing-outfield group, and does it well. The Braves moved Martin Prado out of the infield because of his bad glove; according to Total Zone and Fielding Runs he remains a liability as a left fielder, while UZR and Plus/Minus think he’s just fine out there. That doesn’t sound conclusive one way or another, but it’s early yet. Maybe he’ll be the next Braun, or the next Soriano.
In the absence of any compelling trend, what might be especially interesting is that for all the talk of improvement, one thing has been damnably consistent over the past decade. Per Baseball-Reference.com, in 1990, left fielders were catching 48 percent of all fly balls. In 2000, they were catching 47 percent of all fly balls, and in 2009 they were catching 47 percent of all fly balls. Last year, with all this improving going on, left fielders caught 46 percent of all fly balls hit in their direction. So far this year it’s at 49 percent. And all of this while there are fewer balls in play as the strikeout rates keep going higher. Maybe it’s just me, but maybe the teams like the Giants and Reds and Phillies and Marlins, and perhaps now the Braves, have gone for a bat in left field, maybe they’re the ones onto something elegant and classic: putting boppers in a bopper’s slot.
US PresswireThe Cubs inked Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano and Aramis Ramirez to deals worth over $300M.A critical problem in terms of payroll and performance is that the Cubs don’t have a ton of wiggle room in terms of who they employ. If timing is everything in playing the market, the Cubs’ timing was terrible, which may be the kindest thing you can say about some of their investments. That’s the legacy of the commitments made by general manager Jim Hendry during the team’s 2007-08 run and its immediate aftermath. Hendry was dealing with a caretaker owner and operating on short time and a win-now window. This is just the latest hangover season. The Cubs shelled out eight large per annum deals to Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Kosuke Fukudome in the lineup and to Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster in the rotation. What little maneuvering room Hendry has had on his payroll the last couple of years has involved trying to work around those initial, unmovable investments.
Not that Hendry hasn’t tried. Turning Milton Bradley into Carlos Silva, dispensing with Ted Lilly and Derrek Lee, renting Carlos Pena, and trading away farm-generated depth to get Matt Garza to replace Lilly all boils down to trying to work around and endure the unmovable expenses in the meantime: Sori and A-Ram, Fukudome and the Big Z. That quartet is costing the Cubs almost $67 million this year, but you’d be hard-pressed to rank any of them among the top performers at their positions. All four are imperfect players, useful in isolation if you don’t bring up their price tags, but their value has taken a turn for the worse while the Cubs remain mired around .500 or worse. Hendry’s wriggling has brought no joy to Wrigleyville.
Can much be done with this lot as far as moving them? Not at these prices. Say you want to be generous, and offer the Cubs wholesale mulligans for 2010 -- for Zambrano’s squabbles and needless role changes or for Ramirez’s slow start and injury-ruined campaign. Play make-believe, and pretend those two are who they were before 2010. That still doesn’t make any of them easily swappable commodities because they’re no closer to being the star players their salaries suggest. There is still the inverse relationship between Zambrano’s bulk and performance over the previous five or six years to explain away; he’s a mid-rotation talent making an ace’s wages.
Skip the make-believe and consider the outfield duo. Soriano has degenerated into a latter-day Dave Kingman clone, a fragile bop-or-drop slugger who has posted a below league average OBP (for non-pitchers) since 2008, and someone whose defensive limitations turn every fly ball into an adventure. Fukudome’s little better, saddled with an inaccurate arm and little power for a corner, so his contributions can be measured by his excellent OBP and little else. That’s useful, but is it $13.5 million worth of useful? Between no-trade protection in the last year of his deal and a contract larded with an especially generous helping of a Japanese import’s perks, he’s no more swappable than Soriano.
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Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesThe hefty contracts Cubs GM Jim Hendry handed out in 2007 and 2008 have limited the club's options for updating the roster.
Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesThe hefty contracts Cubs GM Jim Hendry handed out in 2007 and 2008 have limited the club's options for updating the roster.So how far can the Cubs be left alone as is? The easy answer is "until they’re out of it," and in the NL Central, that may not be until September. The agony of this particular Cubs season is that with two-fifths of the rotation down they can reasonably complain that they don’t know quite what they’re capable of doing within this division. The Cubs have gone 2-7 in the starts taken by Casey Coleman and James Russell during the absences of Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner, with only one quality start to show for those nine turns.
Asking what could be can obscure the main point, though: The Cubs are stuck. Stuck with a lineup without patience or power -- or, as Mike Quade mused last night after 13 singles, without speed -- and a shallow team besides. The only thing top-shelf about the Cubs du jour is the expense of employing them.
Whatever the Cubs are capable of doing in the Central won’t be up to them indefinitely -- the Cardinals and Reds are much better prepared to go off on tears and more closely resemble 90-win ballclubs than these Cubs are. For the Cubs to get into this thing, they not only have to hurry up and wait on their own limited possibilities, they need bad things to start happening to other teams. It beats disassembling the team out of mere disgust, but if they’re closer to mattering come July, disgust might inspire a long-awaited teardown.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Getty ImagesA change of scenery has done wonders for Russell Martin and Lance Berkman.Comeback players can return to success for myriad reasons, including but not limited to: finally getting healthy; mechanical adjustments; a change of scenery; a weightlifting or conditioning program; getting a second chance from off-field problems; taking a year off and wanting to come back; or even improvements in their personal life like a marriage or birth of a child.
When a general manager signs a player with the intent of him becoming a Comeback Player of the Year candidate, he normally has a reason behind it. Here are some of those guys, plus a couple who didn't change organizations.
1. Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals
Berkman had spent his entire career with the Astros, averaging 30 home runs, 110 RBIs and a .410 on-base percentage over a 12-year career as one of baseball’s top OPS guys. However, at 34 years old, he saw it all crumbling down last season, in which he hit just .245 with 13 HRs and 49 RBIs before being traded to the Yankees. Once he arrived with the Yankees it got worse, as he finished the year batting .255 with just one home run in 106 at-bats. His lower half looked old. His legs were slow. His bat was slow. His torque in the middle wasn't the same. He looked finished. He was embarrassed. He also did something about it. Ed Wade, his former GM in Houston, told me this past winter that he ran into Berkman in the Houston area and he had lost 15-20 pounds and looked to be in great shape. He was excited about being able to return to right field with the Cardinals -- a position he hadn’t played in over four years. His hard work in the offseason has paid off early this season, as he’s hitting .390 with nine HRs and 27 RBIs. In the case of Berkman, the reasons he has been able to make a successful comeback can probably be attributed to conditioning, weight training, change of scenery and the wake-up call that he appeared not only in decline but possibly near the end of his career. Whatever the reason, he’s back, and Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is no longer answering questions about why he signed Berkman to a one-year, $8 million deal. By the way, Berkman also has looked impressive in the field, getting good jumps on balls and covering enough ground to be called close to an average defender.
2. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
The Royals have taken a lot of flak for drafting Gordon ahead of such players as Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki and Jay Bruce, and rightfully so. However, Gordon was always a talented player and most clubs had him in the top five that year. Gordon has had to overcome injuries, positional changes (3B, 1B and now finally a home in LF) and mechanical changes. More importantly, he had to overcome being rushed to the major leagues before he was ready. He really struggled with major league pitching, leaving a lot of evaluators scratching their heads. However, he made a mechanical change this spring that allowed his hands to start further back and higher, giving him the ability to let the ball travel further, and that has put him back on the map as one of the top, young, potential left-handed power hitters in the game. Gordon presently has an OPS of .900 with 20 RBIs.
3. Aaron Harang, San Diego Padres
Harang won 16 games for the Cincinnati Reds in 2006 and 2007 and was considered the ace of the staff. However, after three years of averaging six wins per season, the Reds let him go via free agency at the end of last season. Jed Hoyer, the GM of Padres, took a chance on Harang on the recommendation of pitching coach Darren Balsley, and it has paid off. Harang told me that Balsley changed his leg kick back to where it was in '06 and '07 and changed the timing of his hands splitting. The results added velocity, a crisper breaking ball, a much-improved WHIP and two wins away from Petco Park.
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Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesAlfonso Soriano has been one of the few bright spots so far for the Cubs.
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesAlfonso Soriano has been one of the few bright spots so far for the Cubs.Last summer, Cubs GM and then-manager Lou Piniella told me Soriano will never be the player he was in Washington. Because of bad knees, Soriano hasn’t hit 30 home runs since 2007, when he hit 33 in his first year with the Cubs. But 2011 is a new season, and Soriano, after spending the winter working on his legs, knees and lower half, is back. He has an NL-leading 11 home runs and is presently on pace to hit more than the 46 home runs he hit for me in Washington back in 2006. Amazing what happens when a talented player gets healthy again. Another good comeback story.
5. Bartolo Colon, New York Yankees
This one’s the hardest one for me to believe. Colon is throwing a 92-96 mph fastball, painting the corners and keeping it down or elevating when needed with a good breaking ball. This can’t be happening, can it? I feel like Michael J. Fox is going to soon tell me we are back to the past. Colon won 21 games in 2005 for the Angels. He won a total of 14 games over the next four years ... four years! The great Branch Rickey once said, "If you see it once, you can see it again." Colon is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA but giving the Yankees important innings in the rotation. The key will be how long can he maintain this; how long can he maintain velocity; how long can he maintain command? A phenomenal story.
6. Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians
Hafner’s shoulders have been so bad that he hasn't been able to do any offseason weightlifting the past few years. However, this offseason was different. With better health on his side, Hafner worked hard in building up strength and flexibility. The result has been outstanding, as his bat speed is back and so is the thump in his bat. His sweet spot contact is loud again, and his face is smiling. And it should be after starting this season with a .404 OBP, including four home runs. Hafner is presently nursing a sore right foot but fortunately is not heading to the disabled list, according to Indians manager Manny Acta.
7. Russell Martin, New York Yankees
I watched Martin closely the last two years with the Dodgers. He showed no power in games and no power in BP, and questions about the health of his hip and knees never ceased. When the Dodgers decided to non-tender Martin, it wasn’t met with surprise, but rather with understanding. Remember, he hit five home runs in 2010 and seven in 2009. When Yankees GM Brian Cashman signed Martin, he took a lot of criticism. With Jorge Posada, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine, the signing didn’t appear to make sense. However, Cashman is now looking brilliant. Martin already has six home runs and 20 RBIs to go with a .939 OPS and has done an admirable job of calling a game and stopping the running from a defensive standpoint. He is clearly one of the better free-agent bargains of 2011, and the Red Sox and Dodgers should be kicking themselves for not pursuing him more aggressively. This comeback story has as much to do with a change of scenery as health, but both have played a major factor.
Comeback players can make an impact on pennant races and they already have this year for teams such as the Yankees (Colon, Martin and Eric Chavez) and Indians (Grady Sizemore and Hafner).
You can follow me on Twitter @JimBowdenESPNxm, and I look forward to your input, feedback and ideas. Thanks for reading.
Pitching big reason for offensive decline
May, 2, 2011
5/02/11
1:16
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Matthew Emmons/US PresswireLooking for a reason for the offensive decline? Look at the young arms, led by Felix Hernandez.One of the big stories of April was the continued decline in offense across the majors. Scoring last season was at its lowest level since 1992 and the major league batting average in the opening month of this season was .251, the lowest April average since the .249 mark of 1992. Teams scored an average of 4.29 runs per game, lower than 2010’s season average of 4.38.
The common refrain heard last season was: See? Testing for steroids and other PEDs works.
To which I say: Not so fast, my friends.
For example, in 2006 (the fourth season of drug testing) the major league average was 4.86 runs per game and 1.11 home runs per game -- totals higher than many seasons of the so-called steroid era, including the final pre-testing year of 2002 when teams averaged 4.62 runs per game and 1.04 home runs per game. In 2009, scoring was still 4.61 runs per game and home runs at 1.04 per game.
There are many possible reasons that go into the declining offensive levels, including -- but not limited to -- reduced PED usage; better defense; new pitching friendly ballparks since 2008 for the Twins (Target Field), Mets (Citi Field) and Nationals (Nationals Park); cold weather (this April); poor quality of wood; and more consistent strike zones from umpires.
If you ask me the other explanation is rather simple: We have lots of good young pitching. The past few seasons have seen an extraordinary number of hard-throwing, polished young pitchers reach the majors and dominate.
The following starters are currently 25 or younger: Felix Hernandez, David Price, Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Clayton Kershaw, Yovani Gallardo, Tommy Hanson, Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, Zach Britton, Michael Pineda, Jaime Garcia, Daniel Hudson, Rick Porcello, Brian Matusz, Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto.
Other starters whose rookie seasons were 2006 or later include: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Justin Verlander, John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Cole Hamels, Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza, Max Scherzer, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Ricky Romero and Adam Wainwright.
Crediting decline in offense solely to a decline in PED usage dismisses the talent of those names.
Compare those guys to the top 15 starting pitchers in 1996 who were 25 or younger (based on Baseball-Reference's WAR stats): Andy Pettitte, Ismael Valdez, Brad Radke, Jose Rosado, Pedro Martinez, Steve Trachsel, Felipe Lira, James Baldwin, Scott Karl, Darren Oliver, Joey Hamilton, Chad Ogea, Willie Adams, Frankie Rodriguez, Mark Thompson.
These were -- in theory -- the best young pitchers in 1996. No offense to Felipe Lira or Scott or Frankie Rodriguez, but they obviously didn’t exactly have the ability of Felix Hernandez or David Price or Clayton Kershaw. It’s a simple snapshot example of one reason why offensive levels remained high through the late 1990s and into the early 2000s -- there just wasn’t much good young pitching reaching the majors. And, again, before saying it’s easier to pitch in the post-PED era, the offensive of levels in 2006 -- when today’s current young pitchers were reaching the majors or climbing their way up through the minors, weren’t so different from 1996:
1996: 5.04 runs per game, 1.09 HRs per game, .270/.340/.427
2006: 4.86 runs per game, 1.11 HRs per game, .269/.337/.432
A bit startling, isn’t it? It should make you rethink the impact PEDs had on the game. I’m not saying they didn’t have an affect, but I believe their impact is wildly overstated and misbelieved.
As a final note, a key reason we have so many good young pitchers right now is that organizations do a much better job of keeping young pitchers healthy, both in the minors and at the major league level. Here’s one simple example, looking at the number of games of 120-plus pitchers by starters 25 or younger:
2010: 30
1996: 96
1991: 163
Old-schoolers may not like these pitch counts, but it’s a big reason we can hope all these exciting young pitchers will have long, successful careers. Not that today’s hitters want to hear that.
SERIES OF THE WEEK
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Friday: Derek Lowe vs. Cliff Lee
Saturday: Jair Jurrjens vs. Roy Oswalt
Sunday: Tommy Hanson vs. Cole Hamels
The Braves have outscored their opponents by 20 runs, but have just a 14-15 record to show for it. The offense continues to struggle, ranking 14th in batting average and 15th in on-base percentage in the NL entering Sunday. Brian McCann leads the club with a .299 average but has just three extra-base hits and Alex Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman and Dan Uggla are all hitting less than .235. They already digging a hole against the Phillies and Marlins. It won’t get any easier this week, with the three games against Lee, Oswalt and Hamels, not to mention Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum of the Brewers.
PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Wednesday: Zack Greinke (first start) vs. Tim Hudson (3-2, 3.48), Brewers at Braves
Greinke makes his Brewers debut in Atlanta against the veteran ground ball specialist. If Marcum’s first six NL starts are any indication, look for Greinke to post some big numbers. Marcum’s ERA is 2.21, his hits per nine has dropped from 8.3 with Toronto in 2010 to 6.9 and his strikeouts per nine has risen from 7.6 to 8.3. Hudson has the fourth-best ground ball percentage among starters so far and has allowed just one home run in 41 1/3 innings.
THREE SWINGS
1. Carl Crawford drove in the winning run for the Red Sox, singling in Jed Lowrie with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to beat Seattle 3-2 and avoid a sweep. Dustin Pedroia led the charge out of the Boston dugout to mob Crawford, with Red Sox players celebrating like he’d just won them the pennant. As Peter Gammons said on NESN, Crawford is one of the most respected and well-liked players on the team and you know his teammates felt extra joyous it was Crawford delivering the hit. He had a bloop single earlier in the game, improving his season line to a still-woeful .168/.215/.238 … but maybe this will get him going.
2. Andre Ethier extended his hit streak to 27 games, another reminder of one of Billy Beane’s ill-fated decisions, when he traded Ethier to the Dodgers after the 2005 season for Milton Bradley and Antonio Perez. Bradley did help the A’s win the AL West title in 2006, although he played only 96 games that season. Ethier, a second-round pick by Oakland out of Arizona State, had hit .319/.385/.497 at Double-A Midland, but had suffered a stress fracture in his back in 2004 and some scouts doubted his power potential. Kudos to Ned Colletti, in one of his first deals as Dodgers GM.
3. Alfonso Soriano leads the majors with 10 home runs after hitting four in his past four games. His all-or-nothing approach, however, is symbolic of the problems with the Cubs’ offense. Soriano is hitting .258 with a poor 24/3 SO/BB ratio, his on-base percentage is a dreadful .277. Only the Giants and Astros have drawn fewer walks than the Cubs. Soriano, once a 40-steal guy, doesn’t have a single stolen base. Only the Braves have fewer steals than the Cubs’ six. And while Soriano has 10 homers, no other Cub has more than two.
RANT OF THE WEEK
My rant is against the baseball gods. What do they have against third basemen? Ryan Zimmerman, the heart of a Nationals team that is only one game under .500, is out another six weeks or so with his torn abdominal muscle. Pablo Sandoval, off to a terrific start for the Giants, broke the hamate bone in his hand and will be out 4-6 week. David Freese of the Cardinals, hitting .356, broke his hand on Sunday. Kevin Youkilis is battling a hip problem. Alex Rodriguez was hitting .370 eight days ago but is now down to .274. This is on top of Evan Longoria missing most of the season. So, I implore the baseball gods, you’ve made a point: Leave the hot corner alone.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Stroll through the stats: Bautista, A-Rod hot
April, 25, 2011
4/25/11
4:42
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
We did it last week. We'll try it again ... a Monday stroll through the stats as we pass the time with no day baseball. (Seriously, Bud, forget worrying about things like expanded playoffs and labor deals ... just get us day baseball, every day, and we'll be much happier.)
- Jose Bautista reached base 11 straight times before finally going hitless (with two walks) on Sunday. He has 19 walks in 18 games and a .506 on-base percentage. Yes, he's for real. By my count, the following players had more walks than games played in a season (minimum 100 games): Barry Bonds (five times), Ted Williams (five times), Babe Ruth (twice), Mark McGwire, Eddie Joost, Mickey Mantle and Jack Clark. Nice company if he can keep it up.
- Is it me, or is Alex Rodriguez quietly having a monster April that seems to be getting little attention? I think I've read more about Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. Meanwhile, A-Rod is hitting .354/.492/.792. He seems locked in at the plate and the scary thing for pitchers is that he has 14 walks and only six strikeouts. A-Rod's walk rate dropped to 9.9 percent last season, his lowest since 1999.
- Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier have carried the Dodgers so far, but warning to Dodgers fans: The two also rank 1-2 in the majors in BABIP (batting average in balls in play) at .484 and .451, respectively.
- Nice to see the early resurgence from Lance Berkman, leading the NL with a .725 slugging percentage. As bad as Berkman looked with the Yankees last season (one home run in 106 at-bats), it was easy to forget that this guy posted a .906 OPS in 2009 and finished fifth in the MVP vote in 2008.
- Sam Fuld leads the majors with 10 steals, more proof of Joe Maddon installing an aggressive baserunning mentality with the Rays. Fuld had just 23 career steals in the minors. The team with the most steals in the majors, however, is Kansas City, with 30 -- and they've only been caught five times, for an 86 percent success rate. The Royals were eighth in the majors in steals in 2010, but just 20th in success rate at 70 percent.
- Oakland's rotation leads the majors with a 2.20 ERA. The Cubs are last with a ghastly 6.03 mark. Showing how much teams have struggled to generate offense in the AL, the six worst rotation ERAs all belong to NL teams. The worst in the AL: the Yankees, with a 4.62 mark.
- The Marlins lead in bullpen ERA (1.79), lowest batting average allowed (.189) and lowest OPS (.527). Philly's pen has allowed just one home run in 56 innings.
- Alfonso Soriano has six home runs, Tyler Colvin two and nobody else has more than one for the Cubs.
- The Padres are averaging 2.86 runs per game ... no team has averaged less than three runs per game since the '72 Rangers and Angels.
- Pitchers I'm worried about: Madison Bumgarner (10 walks, only nine K's in 17.1 IP), Javier Vazquez (11/16 SO/BB ratio, fastball velocity same as last year, which means down from 2009), Mike Pelfrey (34 hits in 23.2 IP, 12/13 SO/BB ratio).
- From FanGraphs: the Mariners have the worst UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) in the majors at -16.6 runs. Jack Wilson, Brendan Ryan, Ichiro Suzuki, Milton Bradley and Ryan Langerhans all with bad ratings. So not only can four of those guys not hit, now they can't field either. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2011 Seattle Mariners!
Trade rumors have been swirling around Texas Rangers third baseman Michael Young for months. His name came up at the end of the season and rumors have persisted through all of the winter. The only trade rumor in all of sports that has been more persistent and annoying is the talk about Carmelo Anthony. I'll never understand what it is that makes it so hard for a club to either trade a guy or make a definitive declaration that he's your guy and let some form of calm and order reign.
But this has become very difficult for the Rangers, and Young once again made headlines when he recently said that he expected to be traded because he feels he has been "misled and manipulated on different occasions."
Are the Rangers the only ones who were surprised by this? Were even the Rangers surprised? Young has become the face of the Rangers and has been a model citizen, but you can only push a guy so far, and it's been going on with him for years. Granted, he's been paid well for what he's done with the Rangers. But it's nice to feel like the team is behind you, respects you and views you as an important piece of their success. Young's contributions for a decade have certainly warranted Texas' respect.
But this is not the first time the Rangers have taken advantage of Young's versatility and willingness by moving him to make space for another player. When he was coming up through their farm system, he moved from shortstop to second base because Alex Rodriguez was already occupying that position. Of course, you can't expect A-Rod to move for a youngster coming up through the minor leagues. Young deserved to be the one who moved in that circumstance.
But, after that, the Rangers expected Young to be the one to move to make way for incoming players. When they traded A-Rod for Alfonso Soriano, Young moved back to his old position at shortstop.
Two years ago, the Rangers moved him again, this time to third base, when they decided they wanted their middle infield to be Elvis Andrus (shortstop) and Ian Kinsler (second base).
And this winter, they got Adrian Beltre to play third base, moving Young once again to a purported DH/utility role. Not exactly what you'd typically expect for a long-tenured player, club leader and five-time All Star who is making in excess of $13 million a year.
Apparently it's not what Young expected, either.
He's been a good go-along guy, but you can only move a player around so much without so much as a courtesy call before he'll snap and say something like this. I'm not 100 percent on Young's side either, because he could have also handled this with a courtesy call rather than letting it play out in the media like the Rangers front office did. Young also mishandled this by moving away from the typical, quiet class he has shown before, but the Rangers committed the first offense.
If we're keeping track, you could actually say that the Rangers made the first, second and third offenses. And all of those moves were on top of letting trade rumors play out for months. It's not fun to dangle in the wind, and although that's sometimes the name of the game. But a classy, franchise player deserves better than the way the Rangers have treated Young.
It's unfortunate that something like this should become such an apparent no-win situation. But the Rangers can serve as a great example to all other teams that a little communication can go a long way.
Austin Swafford runs the SweetSpot Astros blog at Austin's Astros 290 Blog.
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Andrew Weber/US PresswireMichael Young says there was "breach of trust" between himself and the Rangers.
Andrew Weber/US PresswireMichael Young says there was "breach of trust" between himself and the Rangers.Are the Rangers the only ones who were surprised by this? Were even the Rangers surprised? Young has become the face of the Rangers and has been a model citizen, but you can only push a guy so far, and it's been going on with him for years. Granted, he's been paid well for what he's done with the Rangers. But it's nice to feel like the team is behind you, respects you and views you as an important piece of their success. Young's contributions for a decade have certainly warranted Texas' respect.
But this is not the first time the Rangers have taken advantage of Young's versatility and willingness by moving him to make space for another player. When he was coming up through their farm system, he moved from shortstop to second base because Alex Rodriguez was already occupying that position. Of course, you can't expect A-Rod to move for a youngster coming up through the minor leagues. Young deserved to be the one who moved in that circumstance.
But, after that, the Rangers expected Young to be the one to move to make way for incoming players. When they traded A-Rod for Alfonso Soriano, Young moved back to his old position at shortstop.
Two years ago, the Rangers moved him again, this time to third base, when they decided they wanted their middle infield to be Elvis Andrus (shortstop) and Ian Kinsler (second base).
And this winter, they got Adrian Beltre to play third base, moving Young once again to a purported DH/utility role. Not exactly what you'd typically expect for a long-tenured player, club leader and five-time All Star who is making in excess of $13 million a year.
Apparently it's not what Young expected, either.
He's been a good go-along guy, but you can only move a player around so much without so much as a courtesy call before he'll snap and say something like this. I'm not 100 percent on Young's side either, because he could have also handled this with a courtesy call rather than letting it play out in the media like the Rangers front office did. Young also mishandled this by moving away from the typical, quiet class he has shown before, but the Rangers committed the first offense.
If we're keeping track, you could actually say that the Rangers made the first, second and third offenses. And all of those moves were on top of letting trade rumors play out for months. It's not fun to dangle in the wind, and although that's sometimes the name of the game. But a classy, franchise player deserves better than the way the Rangers have treated Young.
It's unfortunate that something like this should become such an apparent no-win situation. But the Rangers can serve as a great example to all other teams that a little communication can go a long way.
Austin Swafford runs the SweetSpot Astros blog at Austin's Astros 290 Blog.







