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We drown in numbers and statistics these days, but here's one that sums up the crumbling state of the Boston Red Sox quite eloquently: Following Josh Beckett's implosion on Thursday night, Red Sox starters have now allowed five-plus runs in 14 starts; Nationals starters have done so once.

Here's another way. Fifty-three American League starting pitchers are qualified for the AL ERA title. Here's where Boston's five starters rank:

32. Jon Lester (4.29)
38. Daniel Bard (4.83)
46. Felix Doubront (5.29)
51. Josh Beckett (5.97)
53. Clay Buchholz (9.09)

OK, ERA can be a little misleading early in the season. Here's where those five guys rank among AL starters in strikeout/walk ratio:

27. Beckett
32. Doubront
41. Lester
48. Bard
51. Buchholz

The Red Sox are 12-19 for a lot of reasons: injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford and Andrew Bailey; a slow start from Adrian Gonzalez; a couple bullpen implosions; Bobby Valentine using outfielder Darnell McDonald to pitch in a tie game.

Those are all factors, but despite the injuries on offense, the Red Sox are still second in the AL in runs scored; the bullpen has five losses, but 14 teams have more; and Valentine is more lightning rod than explanation.

No, the responsibility rests with the starting rotation. Bard and Doubront have perhaps predictably been mediocre, but they've actually been improvements over Tim Wakefield and John Lackey, so the blame falls on the supposed big three of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz.

Beckett started in Fenway against Cleveland on Thursday, his first start since April 29 and first since the infamous "he cares more about golfing than pitching" story leaked to the media. Beckett actually had pitched pretty well since his five-homer disaster in his first start, posting a 2.93 ERA over his next four starts. While I'm happy to report that I didn't see any greasy fried chicken stains on his jersey, his evening was yet another May disaster for the Sox.

In the top of the second, with one run already in, Jack Hannahan hit a 2-2 changeup to right field for a two-out home run. Not surprisingly, the Fenway faithful let go with more than a few loud boos. In third inning, Jason Kipnis crushed a 3-2 cutter over the bullpen in right-center. After Asdrubal Cabrera singled, Beckett got ahead of Travis Hafner with two strikes but then threw four consecutive balls. Shin-Soo Choo doubled to right on a 2-0, four-seam fastball to score Cabrera. Michael Brantley fell behind two strikes, then lined a double into the gap in left-center on a 1-2 curveball, scoring two more runs and knocking Beckett from the bump in what would be an 8-3 Indians victory.

You can see the issues here: Even when he got ahead of batters, Beckett was unable to put them away. He used the whole tool box -- changeups, four-seamers, cutters, curveballs; the Indians hit them all. Six of the seven hits off Beckett went for extra bases.

I blurted out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast that Beckett is the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. That's probably unfair to a pitcher who has been good for a lot of years, a guy who had dominant postseason runs in 2003 and 2007 in leading the Marlins and Red Sox to World Series titles. Those playoff performances did inflate his reputation a bit, as his regular-season performances haven't been consistently at that level. He has received Cy Young votes just twice in his career (finishing second in 2007 and ninth in 2011). He hasn't exactly been CC Sabathia when it comes to durability, reaching 200 innings just three times and never topping 215. With the Red Sox, he's had two seasons of ERAs over 5.00.

Maybe 2012 is going to be one of those down years; Red Sox fans who saw Beckett and Lester collapse down the stretch expected leadership from Beckett, not reports on his golf swing.

Speaking of Lester, what has happened to the dominant left-hander of a few seasons ago? In 2009, he averaged 10.0 strikeout per nine innings, but that figure has dipped to 6.0 this season. His walks are up more than one per nine innings since 2009. His velocity is still fine; as Curt Schilling has pointed out, his command isn't, with Lester especially struggling in pitching to the outside corner against right-handed batters. Going back to his final 11 starts of 2011, Lester has a 4.16 ERA and a poor strikeout/walk ratio of 86/50. The stuff is still there, but we're going on 18 starts now of mediocre pitching.

Buchholz is an even bigger disaster, the worst starter in the majors so far. Unable to get the ball down in the zone, Buchholz has been pounded like a punching bag. Opponents are hitting .343 and slugging .613 off him. Essentially, the average hitter against Buchholz is David Ortiz. The Red Sox can't afford to keep sending him out there; he probably has one more start before a demotion to Triple-A or stint on the disabled list is necessary.

Eric Karabell made a good argument on the podcast: the Red Sox were 14-17 a year ago and only a historical collapse prevented them from reaching the playoffs. They're only two games worse now, he would suggest, so rationally they're far from out of it. Eric could also point out that Detroit and Arizona were both 14-17 after 31 games a year ago and won 95 and 94 games, respectively.

Eric is right, of course. The Red Sox aren't dead.

But with a 1-8 record in May and a starting rotation in shambles, they certainly look it.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Ah, April is here! Mark Simon and I tried to harness our joy for the season’s first official month in Monday’s Baseball Today podcast, discussing Power Rankings, ridiculous questions (and ridiculous on-field maneuvers) as well!

1. Let’s just say we’ve got different teams in our respective top 10s, and in a different order. The differences (Rangers versus Angels, where the Red Sox, Tigers and Phillies rank) are interesting.

2. Ubaldo Jimenez did a bad thing Sunday, but will it actually hurt the Indians? And does anyone look good from the beaning incident?

3. Congrats to Jamie Moyer for making the Rockies! Mark shares tweets about other professorial baseball players.

4. In search of some off-the-wall baseball season predictions, Mark involves Tim Tebow, Martin Brodeur and the MLS.

5. It wouldn’t be a Simon show without some ridiculous questions of the day and a little singing, and we’ve got it today!

So download and listen to Monday’s excellent Baseball Today podcast. It’ll make you laugh and cry.

If there's one thing we need more of in America, it's eight-pound hamburgers.

So thankfully the Washington Nationals have stepped up to sate our gluttony by introducing the StrasBurger, the Washington Post's Dan Steinberg reports. My favorite part of the news release: The burger will be served on a "large burger bun." Well, I would hope so.

My question: Was Stephen Strasburg consulted on this? Does he approve of being associated with an eight-pound piece of cow flesh? Or are we entering an Albert Pujols situation? I fear there will be repercussions to this burger unveiling.

More links:

• The bloggers at the Capitol Avenue Club react to Chipper Jones' comments that he might not make it through the season.
• Joey Matschulat writes on Mike Napoli's contract situation with the Rangers ... and the lack of an extension or even an apparent discussion.
• The Mariners annually have the most creative promotional commercials. I'm not sure they actually help sell more tickets, but they're fun to watch. The best one this year shows where Justin Smoak gets his bats.
• Chip Buck on the Boston's Sox bullpen situation. The Sox lost Jonathan Papelbon to free agency and Daniel Bard to the rotation, replacing them with Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon. Papelbon and Bard were dominant, both posting WHIPs under 1.00 and combining for 161 strikeouts in 137.1 innings. Papelbon only blew three saves, and didn't lose a game until No. 162, but Bard went 2-9. You can't ignore those nine losses, no matter the other numbers. Here, Bard's OPS allowed in different game situations:Margin greater than 4 runs: .237
  Within 4 runs: .561
  Within 3 runs: .566
  Within 2 runs: .562
  Within 1 run: .653
  Tied: .885
  
  Bard simply wasn't clutch went it mattered most. That's a long-winded way of saying the overall net effect of Bailey and Melancon replacing Papelbon and Bard might not be that severe, assuming those two can come close to the 137 innings the Red Sox got from their top two relievers in 2011 (considering Bailey's health history, that's the bigger question).
• Speaking of bullpens, Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker asks, What to expect from the Brewers' pen? Personally, I like Milwaukee's pen as there is a lot of depth behind John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez. The weakness is a lack of a left-hander, a role potentially filled by Zach Braddock or Manny Parra (yes, he's still around).
• Will Jeff Samardzija earn a spot in the Cubs' rotation? So far, so good.
• Brandon Cloud looks at the future of the Rockies -- an examination of all the moves since the Ubaldo Jimenez trade.
• John Bonnes has five storylines to watch for the Twins.
• Who is Tyler Graham? An outfield candidate unlikely to break camp with the Giants, writes Chris Quick. But check out this play he made in center field.
• ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh looks at five relievers being converted to starters, and suggests Chris Sale is the best bet for a successful transition.
• Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has his organizational prospect rankings. Like ESPN Insider Keith Law, he ranks the Padres No. 1. Keith had Tampa Bay No. 2 and Toronto No. 3, while Kevin has Toronto No. 2 and St. Louis No. 3. Kevin has the Rays well down his list at No. 13.

A mediocre starting pitcher in the minor leagues, Andrew Bailey became a full-time reliever for the Oakland A's in 2009, when he jumped from Double-A to the majors, pitched in 68 games and 83 innings as a rookie while posting a 1.84 ERA, made the All-Star team and won American League Rookie of the Year honors.

The next two seasons, he continued to pitch well ... but has thrown just 90 innings combined, as he's battled bone chips in his elbow (he had surgery after the 2010 season) and more elbow and forearm issues in 2011 that kept him sidelined until late May.

The Boston Red Sox acquired him for Josh Reddick, leaving the obvious questions of:

1. Will he stay healthy?
2. How good is he away from the canyonlike confines of the Coliseum?

The first question is difficult to answer without more research, but considering Bailey also had Tommy John surgery in college, he's had significant elbow issues in at least three seasons. The risk isn't huge for Boston, as Bailey is just entering his first arbitration-eligible season, where he likely will receive a salary in the $3.5-4 million range.

For the second question, the easy answer might be that Bailey hasn't received any big advantage from pitching in Oakland, considering he has a career 2.17 ERA at home and 1.96 on the road. He also has held opponents to a .180 average at home and .197 on the road. However, I do see some cracks in the résumé. Most pointedly, he owns a spectacular 106-19 strikeout-walk ratio at home, but a more pedestrian 68-30 on the road. Perhaps more willing to challenge hitters in Oakland, where mistakes go to die on the warning track, he has averaged three more strikeouts per nine innings there than on the road.

That doesn't mean he can't correct his approach, but I do see it as a red flag. Don't get me wrong -- he's a very good closer, tough to hit (only four relievers with at least 150 innings have allowed a lower batting average since 2009), and, although he might not be quite in the Jonathan Papelbon class, if Bailey is healthy, you could argue that only Mariano Rivera rates better among AL closers. I also think this deal makes more sense than signing Ryan Madson to a big contract and allows the team to consider trying Daniel Bard as a starter.

As for Reddick, he oozes talent with a picture-perfect baseball build and sweet swing. His big drawback has always been an inability to control the strike zone. He doesn't draw many walks, although he doesn't strike out excessively. He showed some progress in 2011, receiving regular playing time in the majors for the first time, as his walk rate improved to 6.8 percent, but that was still below the major league average of 8.5 percent.

He started off hot and had appeared to turn the corner, but his poor play in August and September was one reason for Boston's collapse, as he hit just .235/.283/.368 with seven RBIs in 145 plate appearances in those two months. He'll turn 25 in February, so I still like the overall potential, although his ceiling appears to be solid big league starter at best. For the A's, it's a fair tradeoff for a closer with a balky elbow who is about to get expensive.

I never know what to make of spring training injuries. It seems like there have been a lot of injuries this spring (listen to Orel Hershiser talk about all the pitching injuries ) but unless we went back and checked previous seasons, it's difficult to say if that's really the case. It's also easy to overreact, since teams are going to be cautious with any sore arms or tight hamstrings at the start of the season -- especially for clubs heading north, where temperatures are still hovering in the 30s and 40s.

With that, here's a scroll through the American League with some of the latest injury updates:

Curtis Granderson and Pedro Feliciano, Yankees: Granderson has a strained oblique but thinks he'll be ready for the first series. Feliciano, who hasn't pitched since March 9, sounds less promising, as he'll remain behind in camp. Steve Garrison might win his spot on the roster.

Brian Matusz and Justin Duchscherer, Orioles: The lefty had to leave a minor league game on Monday after getting struck on the biceps with a line drive, but should be fine to make his first start on Saturday. Duchscherer will start the season on the DL with a strained hip that sidelined him most of last season, opening up rotation slots for Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen.

J.P. Howell, Rays: He's still on track to start pitching in the minor leagues in mid-April and hopefully reach the majors by early May.

Dayan Viciedo, White Sox: He fractured his thumb on March 10 after getting hit by a pitch. He'll stay behind in Arizona until he's ready.

Jake Peavy, White Sox: He is to pitch three innings in a minor league intrasquad game today and then stay behind in Arizona. Phil Humber will be the team's fifth starter until Peavy is ready.

Grady Sizemore, Indians: He'll start the season on the DL, making Michael Brantley the starting center fielder with Austin Kearns in left. The Indians have no timetable for Sizemore's return from knee surgery.

Justin Morneau, Twins: As of Monday, Morneau still hadn't been officially cleared by doctors to play Opening Day, but Morneau is hopeful he'll be ready.

Joe Nathan Twins: He hasn't pitched great this spring as he comes back from Tommy John surgery, but he passed a test by going two innings in one outing and pitching on back-to-back days. Still, Ron Gardenhire as indicated Matt Capps might be used in some save situations early on.

Kendrys Morales, Angels: He took batting practice Monday and will begin agility work on Tuesday. Mark Trumbo will begin the season as the team's first baseman.

Joel Pineiro, Angels: He might head to the DL with muscle soreness in his back, pushing his first start to April 8.

Andrew Bailey, A's: A strained right foreman has landed Bailey on the DL. He's also recovering from elbow surgery. No timetable on his return. Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour will share closer duties, according to manager Bob Geren.

Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners: He's likely to begin on the DL with a stomach ailment the team is still trying to diagnose. That leaves Michael Saunders and Ryan Langerhans as center field options.

Tommy Hunter and Brandon Webb, Rangers: The Rangers are having all kinds of issues with their pitching staff. Hunter is out at least six weeks with a strained groin while Webb is still in the midst of rehabbing his shoulder. A May return is the optimistic outlook. Meanwhile, C.J. Wilson left his last start with a tight hamstring and Arthur Rhodes has tendinitis in his wrist. Alexi Ogando appears to be the guy stepping in for Hunter.


Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Eric Karabell and Mark Simon discuss all the transactions and make some predictions on Monday's Baseball Today podcast . Topics include:

• Mark makes his season predictions, including win totals for every team and a surprise winner in the NL Central.
• The Red Sox send Hideki Okajima to the minors.
• Andrew Bailey headed to the DL.
• Carlos Silva gets released ... is he better than Kevin Millwood?
• Jayson Werth hitting second and the Nationals outfield situation.
• Mark shares a story about Mike Hampton.
• Some talk of obscure jerseys ... including the great Bombo Rivera.

As the A's have been wheeling-and-dealing throughout the offseason, I've been closely tracking how it affects both the 25- and 40-man rosters. By my count, there could be as many as eight new Athletics on the Opening Day roster.

The additions of Josh Willingham, David DeJesus and Hideki Matsui have just about set the position player side of the equation, but the 12-man pitching staff is still up-in-the-air (for those not as familiar with the A's, it's a lock that they break camp with 12 pitchers; Bob Geren would have it no other way).

Assuming that Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden all take rotation spots, there are as many as 13 candidates for the remaining eight spots. At minimum, the A's have the following pitchers available for bullpen spots: Andrew Bailey, Grant Balfour, Jerry Blevins, Craig Breslow, Joey Devine, Brian Fuentes, Michael Wuertz, and Brad Ziegler.

That's not including Rich Harden, if he's not the fifth starter, or other potential fifth-starter candidates Brandon McCarthy, Josh Outman, Tyson Ross and Bobby Cramer.

There are injury questions with many of these guys, including Bailey, a shutdown closer through two seasons with a 1.70 ERA (and just-as-spiffy 2.70 FIP) in 132 major-league innings, Devine, coming off Tommy John surgery that cost him the last two seasons, and the perennially injured Harden, whose role still has yet to be determined.

The A's are sitting on at least eight average major-league relief pitchers right now, possibly more. "Average major-league relief pitchers" might not sound that great, but this bullpen stacks up with any in baseball, in terms of both peak talent and depth.

While teams might not have wanted to pay for Balfour or Fuentes during the offseason, some of them (all of them?) will need relief help come July. As we've seen recently, teams will do silly things in the thick of a playoff race when time is running out.

The A's, with extra money to spend after failing to come up with Adrian Beltre or Hisashi Iwakuma, smartly added assets at close to their market value. The contracts for Balfour and Fuentes could allow them to be moved for decent young talent, given their salaries. While not quite as talented, pitchers like Wuertz or Ziegler could be moved for the same talent given their short (one-year) contracts and lower salaries.

This all assumes that everything goes according to plan. Which, for the A's, it almost always does. Even if it doesn't, the A's depth will be a major strength in 2011.

-- Dan Hennessey writes Baseballin' on a Budget, a blog about the Oakland Athletics. Follow him on Twitter @DanHennessey31.

I didn't have a BBWAA award ballot this season, so for me everything's still theoretical. But Keith Law had a ballot (more on that tomorrow, from him), and so did Baseball Prospectus writers Christina Kahrl (American League Rookie of the Year) and Will Carroll (A.L. Rookie of the Year). Kahrl, in particular, did exactly what you'd like a voter to do. She went to a great deal of effort in putting together her ballot, and then she wrote about it.

Kahrl's ballot:

1. Elvis Andrus
2. Andrew Bailey
3. Gordon Beckham

My ballot would have looked like this:

1. Brett Anderson
2. Elvis Andrus
3. Jeff Niemann

Our ballots are quite a bit different from the actual results -- Bailey won, followed by Andrus, Rick Porcello, Niemann, Beckham, and Anderson -- but they're quite a bit different from each other, too.

Carroll didn't write as much, but here's his ballot:

1. J.A. Happ
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Tommy Hanson

Carroll prefaces his ballot with this: "In the end, I voted by the numbers."

Really? I thought that's what I do, and yet my ballot would have looked like this ...

1. Randy Wells
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Tommy Hanson

... with Happ and Coghlan and Garrett Jones fighting for fourth place. Hey, it was a good year for rookies. My point is that all of us go with the numbers, from the veteran BBWAA member to upstarts like Kahrl and Carroll and Neyer. What's different is which numbers we look at, and what we see when we look at them. And while Kahrl and Carroll and Neyer might tend to look at the same numbers, we're all going to see different things.

There's this notion floating around that every writer who grew up with Bill James or the InterWeb thinks exactly the same way. Which is just bat-guano crazy.

Question for You: How many times has the Rookie of the Year come from the right team, but been the wrong rookie?

This question occurred to me upon the news that Andrew Bailey had won the American League's award this year. Not that Bailey didn't enjoy a wonderful 2009 season. From the Mercury News' Joe Stiglich:

The award caps an improbable ride for Bailey, a roster long shot in spring training who wound up making the All-Star team and setting an Oakland rookie record with 26 saves.

Many considered Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus the favorite for the award. Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello also had strong credentials. Both played instrumental roles on teams that challenged for the postseason, unlike the last-place A's.

But Bailey received 13 of 28 first-place votes from the Baseball Writers Association of America. His 88 points easily outdistanced Andrus (65) and Porcello (64). A's starting pitcher Brett Anderson finished sixth.

--snip--

He became the unlikely star of a bullpen that turned out to be the A's biggest strength of 2009. Bailey was struggling as a starter for Double-A Midland when he converted to relieving midway through the 2008 season.

The change paid quick dividends. He led AL relievers with a .167 opponents' batting average this season to go with a 1.84 ERA. He didn't blow a save after June 16, and his 26 saves tied for the sixth-most ever by an AL rookie.

It was certainly an impressive season, as Bailey anchored a bullpen that was almost literally the Athletics' only bright spot in a last-place season. Still, I can't help but wondering: What if Bailey had pitched in the first half of the season exactly as well as he did, but generally in eighth innings rather than ninths? What if he'd finished the season with a 1.84 ERA (as he actually did) but with 17 saves rather than 26.

If those things had happened, would Bailey still have been the Rookie of the Year?

I think we know the answer to that question.

Meanwhile, Anderson went 11-11 with a 4.06 ERA and an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 starts. But what if Anderson had pitched for a better team and been a little luckier, and gone 15-7 rather than 11-11. If that had happened, would Anderson have been the Rookie of the Year?

No, probably not. Anderson actually finished sixth, and Rookie of the Year voters almost certainly can't be expected to fall in love with a pitcher whose ERA starts with a 4.

Just in terms of value, though? Anderson pitched 175 innings. He was one of three American League starters who showed up on Rookie of the Year ballots, and finished well behind the other two, Porcello and Jeff Niemann. Well behind: Porcello got 64 points, Niemann 21, and Anderson 4.

You're familiar with a statistic called FIP, right? That's Fielding Independent Pitching, which essentially is an ERA with the luck stripped away. Anderson's FIP was 3.69, the eighth best in the American League (Josh Beckett was seventh, John Lackey ninth). Niemann's FIP was 4.08, Porcello's 4.77.

Yes, it seems likely that Anderson has the best future of the three. But forget about that. I don't think the future should have any bearing whatsoever in Rookie of the Year voting. Not even the tiniest iota. What I'm saying is that in 2009, Anderson was the best rookie pitcher in the American League. Just as Randy Wells -- who also finished sixth in Rookie of the Year balloting -- was the best rookie pitcher in the National League.

Was Anderson the best player in the American League? That's a little tougher, as Andrus gave the Rangers Gold Glove-quality defense at shortstop. The only thing I'm sure about is that if the voters wanted an Athletic, they should have gone with the guy who started 30 games and pitched as well as John Lackey.

Today I received a press release trumpeting the many and varied accomplishments of Elvis Andrus, which got me to thinking more about the American League Rookie of the Year candidates.

This isn't in the release, but would you believe that Andrus is the only American League rookie who's going to wind up with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title? Andrus is going to clear 502 plate appearances by a dozen or so, while nobody else is going to reach even 450. That alone wouldn't be enough to push Andrus past candidates Gordon Beckham and Nolan Reimold. It's his 33 steals and excellent defense at shortstop that do that.

Does that mean he's the best candidate? Well, I think it probably means he'll win the award. But it doesn't mean he's the only worthwhile candidate. A's closer Andrew Bailey has pitched brilliantly, with a 1.88 ERA and a lovely strikeout-to-walk ratio. And there are some starting pitchers ... well, there are four of them. And that's the problem. Jeff Niemann, Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, and Ricky Romero all have roughly a dozen wins and ERA's right around 4. It's hard for me to imagine many voters sorting through them, and arriving at a particularly good choice.

That choice does exist, though. Anderson's 11-11 record is the worst in the group, but he's got more strikeouts than everyone else and fewer walks. It's because of those strikeouts and walks that I probably would vote for Anderson.

Again, though, Andrus is a worthy candidate. As the release points out, Andrus is the first 20-year-old to play 140 games in the American League since Alex Rodriguez, 13 years ago. What's most impressive about Elvis Andrus isn't his performance or his age; it's the incredibly rare combination. I cannot advocate giving an award to a player because of what he will do, someday. But if you could have just one of these young men for the next five seasons, Andrus would be the one.

How hard is it, for a rookie to break into the majors and play every day? Elvis Andrus is the only American League rookie with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. And even he has started only 115 of the Rangers' 136 games.

Which would make for a pretty boring Rookie of the Year discussion, if not for 1) a few candidates who have played nearly as much as Andrus, and 2) pitchers.

Entering this season, the prohibitive co-favorites for Rookie of the Year were David Price and Matt Wieters. Well, Wieters hasn't really hit and Price has only seven wins, which only suggests how hard this rookie-predicting business can be, in March.

Only five American League rookies have more than 300 plate appearances: Andrus, Chicago's Chris Getz and Gordon Beckham, Baltimore's Nolan Reimold, and Cleveland's Luis Valbuena. Getz and Valbuena are both second basemen who haven't hit as well as Andrus, a shortstop. So they're both out.

Which leaves (among the hitters) only Andrus, Reimold (outfield) and Beckham (third base). In playing time, the ranking is Andrus, Reimold, Beckham. In hitting, it's Reimold, Beckham, Andrus. And defensively it's Andrus, Beckham, Reimold.

Yes, that hardly qualifies as analysis. But if you do the actual analysis, the answer's the same: Andrus is the best rookie in the American League due to his playing time and his defense. And (sorry, Sox fans) it's not close. If the voters are paying any sort of attention at all, Andrus should get a bunch of first-place votes and those other guys shouldn't get any at all.

Ah, but what about the pitchers? Nobody's been paying much attention outside of the East Bay, but young Andrew Bailey's racked up 23 saves while posting a 2.06 ERA. Completely under the radar, he seems to have established himself as one of the league's six or eight best closers. Meanwhile, there are two fine rookie starters, as Tampa Bay's Jeff Niemann is 12-5 with a 3.67 ERA and Detroit's Rick Porcello is 12-8, 4.18. And Toronto's Ricky Romero has 11 wins and a 4.15 ERA.

Usually the outcome of these things is fairly obvious in September. But do you have any idea who's going to win this award? I don't give Bailey much of a chance for all the obvious reasons, and I would vote for Andrus for all those obvious reasons. But anybody who has a big September could jump to the head of the class.