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Justin Verlander very nearly pulled off a no-hitter against the Pirates, which would have been his third career no-hitter. Two outs shy of the feat, the Pirates’ Josh Harrison waved his bat in time to flick a soft liner up the middle, thwarting the top gun’s bid for history.

If Verlander had pulled it off, he would have joined a very short list of people with more than two career no-nos, a select group populated by just five other men in baseball history: Nolan Ryan (seven), Sandy Koufax (four), and Cy Young, Bob Feller and Larry Corcoran with three apiece.

On a visceral level, it’s a group he belongs to, but it’s also one that might really become just a list of two men before Verlander’s done with it. Not because Verlander’s a 100 percent lock to throw another no-no (although these days, would you bet against him?). Rather, as a matter of his ability in the face of a time when -- even if you consider this “Year of the Pitcher 3,” even while strikeouts are at all-time highs -- it still isn’t that easy to dominate, not like this. But before all is said and done, it shouldn’t surprise anybody if the top of this list might be just Nolan Ryan and Justin Verlander before Verlander is done with it.

That isn’t meant to take anything from the other men on this list. However, as a matter of simple fact, they were competing at different times, confronting very different challenges in very different competitive environments. Corcoran was throwing from 10 feet closer to home plate, back under the old pre-60-feet-6-inches rules in the 19th century, and in all-white leagues. Cy Young was pitching during the dead ball era, when he was throwing something dark, lumpy, and vaguely baseball-ish. Feller threw two of his no-hitters before integration -- a cause that he bravely championed before it was an accomplished fact -- was at long last achieved. Koufax had the high mound of the 1960s going for him, and that plus the Dodgers’ move to pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium helped him as he mastered his incredible talents for overpowering people.

Pitching in today’s game, Verlander doesn’t have any of those things going for him, any more than Ryan did during his remarkable career. Take it from somebody stupefied as a youngster that Mike Warren had no-hit the White Sox back in 1983: You can’t predict no-hitters from anyone. But if Verlander was to add one, let alone two no-hitters on his career, wouldn’t that seem like a matter of his talent delivering its due?

On the other hand, Verlander is pitching at a time when there are other advantages and disadvantages. Interleague play gives you a shot at pitching to opponents who might only know you from spring-training scrimmages and "Baseball Tonight" highlights. Only four Pirates in Friday night’s lineup had ever faced Verlander in a game that counted: Andrew McCutchen, Casey McGehee, Neil Walker and Garrett Jones.

Also, it probably didn’t hurt Verlander any that this was an interleague game. The extent to which some teams are less ready than others for interleague play might be best reflected in their lineup choices. Going up against Verlander, who was the Pirates' designated hitter? None other than Harrison, who came into the game with a .256/.275/.436 line on the year. In an increasingly desperate yet fruitless pursuit of runs, the Bucs have sat Opening Day left fielder Alex Presley, on the off-chance that getting journeymen McGehee and Jones into the lineup simultaneously will help matters. You can’t really blame Verlander for mowing the Pirates down; pitting Pittsburgh against one of baseball’s best starters has “historic result” potential any written all over it.

But even saying that takes nothing away from Verlander. The Pirates are a big league team, and it isn’t like anyone in their lineup clearly doesn’t belong in the major leagues. McGehee had homered off Verlander before; McCutchen had ripped a couple of doubles.

Those four Pirates who had faced Verlander before were a combined 5-for-14 against him coming in -- and fat lot of good that did them, because he was on. Even in an age armed with advanced scouting and video-enhanced batting cages for virtual at-bats, when a guy this good is on, let’s face it, you’re off. And knowing all that we do about how hard it is to no-hit anybody even once, that's as beautiful a thing as the diamond can give us, on this or any night.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Andrew McCutchen is laughing, shaking his head in disbelief. "It’s just another hat," he says during a spring training interview.

I tell him maybe he doesn’t understand how special these hats were. I tell him I realize they are ridiculous looking hats but seriously, what if they had magical powers? Would he wear the 1979 Pirates pillbox hat if it meant the current Pirates would bring a World Series championship to Steel City?

McCutchen still wasn’t buying it.

"Obviously that’s not going to make it happen," McCutchen said. "We’ve worn them in the past."

Although baseball players are notoriously superstitious, McCutchen is right; it takes a lot more than a special cap to win a World Series.

The Pirates begin a seven-game road trip tonight against the Braves. The last time the Pirates were in Atlanta they entered that late July series in 2011 tied for first place in the NL Central. After four games, 47 innings and one bad call by umpire Jerry Meals, they left Atlanta 1.5 games back, spiraled through losing the next 10 consecutive games and ended the season 72-90.

McCutchen said this season they are not going to focus on what happened to their team after Atlanta last year. Sure, they’ll remember it. But only as motivation to be more focused in 2012.

"I feel like if we can focus on day by day the sky is going to be the limit for us," McCutchen said back in late March.

One of the key offseason moves to forget the second half of 2011 was acquiring A.J. Burnett, who makes his second start tonight, facing off against the Braves' Tommy Hanson.

Recalling the conversations the Pirates had when they first began thinking about Burnett, manager Clint Hurdle said they started looking at his career, his history, the years Burnett pitched well. In 2008 for the Toronto Blue Jays, Burnett went 18-10, had a 4.07 ERA and a career-high 231 strikeouts. His catcher in Toronto? Rod Barajas.

"We called Rod once we knew we were getting A.J.," Hurdle said. "A.J. spoke volumes of the relationship that he had with Rod."

Barajas said over the last few years he and Burnett would talk every so often -- Burnett would call and ask for his input as to how he was pitching. Barajas believes the pitcher and catcher relationship to be the most important in all of baseball.

After being activated from the disabled list last Saturday (following surgery to repair a fractured orbital bone when hit in the face bunting in spring training), Burnett threw seven strong innings, giving up three hits to the St. Louis Cardinals and earning his first win of 2012. While it is only one game, it is interesting to note 70 percent of Burnett’s pitches were in the strike zone. If Burnett goes back to his 2008 form Barajas’ impact on Burnett will speak volumes.

"We kind of go back to what he did well that year," Barajas said of looking at Burnett’s years in Toronto. "It’s awesome, already having that relationship built up. It should put him at ease."

Burnett is just one piece of the puzzle for the Pirates. Sure, it is only April, but teams have to start somewhere and the Pirates' pitching staff is off to a great start.

They have allowed only 51 runs (second-fewest in the majors, behind the Washington Nationals' 48 runs) and they have a 2.58 ERA -- lower than the Rangers, Cardinals or Phillies.

Unfortunately, the Pirates' offense is off to a terrible start, thus the 8-10 record. They are last in the majors with only 41 runs scored. The Pirates have to find a way to get their offense going.

Shortstop Clint Barmes said this comes down to realizing how important every game is. Baseball is crazy that way, the entire season -- complete joy or agony -- can come down to one game.

"It’s taking the mentality of showing up every day, every game is big, every game is important," Barmes said. "As soon as you relax or sit back on your heels in this game it will find you in all aspects. ... The good teams find a way to get out of [struggles] a little quicker than the other teams."

How can the Pirates accomplish this?

The last time the Pirates won the World Series was 1979. According to Paul Lukas who writes the Uni Watch column for ESPN’s Fandom blog, the Pirates wore the pillbox cap from 1976 through 1986. So, McCutchen was right --- the pillbox caps were not the superstitious key to winning the World Series in 1979.

However, something else interesting happened in 1979. Willie Stargell, now Hall of Famer and then team leader, gave teammates gold stars for outstanding performances throughout the year. The team became one big family. Their team theme song in 1979: "We are Fam-i-ly!"

The Pirates have laid groundwork this year where the team can turn into a family -- from signing McCutchen, a team-oriented guy, to reuniting Burnett and Barajas. Maybe they'll have the capacity to address struggles better than they did last year.

"When you get a group of guys in a clubhouse that can pick each other up, you’re enjoying coming in the clubhouse," Barmes said of his teammates this year. "Not every team I’ve played on has been like that. But when you have that, it makes a big difference throughout a full season."

Of course, it is hard to identify if winning games builds good chemistry or if good chemistry leads to wins, but we know the stories from the teams who have experienced it. In a way, part of the magic of the 1979 Pirates really was in "Stargell’s stars" placed on those crazy pillbox caps.

If the Pirates give general manager Neal Huntington some money to improve the team before the trade deadline, what should he spend it on first?

That’s easy to answer: Amazon.com sells iron-on gold stars for cheap.

Anna McDonald contributes to the SweetSpot blog on ESPN.com's Playbook section. Follow her on Twitter.

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, two of 2011's top-five finishers in the NL MVP voting, switched leagues, making the 2012 race potentially wide open. Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp finished 1-2 in the 2011 voting, but Braun will have to show he can put up the same numbers without Fielder hitting behind him, and Kemp faces the same problem as 2011 -- his team isn't a good bet to make the playoffs. SweetSpot bloggers must like the Reds' chances of returning to the playoffs because they voted Joey Votto as the clear preseason favorite as he finished first or second on 25 of 39 ballots.

Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.

After getting a chance to watch some spring training in baseball in Arizona, and sighing at being back in the Northeast, it was time to tape Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast with Arizona resident Keith Law (he gets to stay!). We had many interesting topics:

1. Special guest pitcher/author Dirk Hayhurst joined us to discuss his new book "Out Of My League," but also to reacquaint us with the Garfoose and share thoughts on his future adventures in a new country.

2. If you know KLaw you know he can’t be pleased with MLB adding two wild card teams. Hear his reasons and my gripe as well.

3. We check in on hotshot young players Bryce Harper and Mike Trout to see if their chances of making the Opening Day roster have changed, and also discuss other spring news, including an unfortunate Alex White situation.

4. A pair of young National League outfielders recently signed long-term contract extensions, but were their teams really the biggest winners, rather than the players?

5. It’s email time! Among the topics were our opinions on whether teams have or need faces of the franchise, and the ongoing myth about lineup protection.

So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, teeming with entertainment and information, and check us out next week. The show goes daily the week of March 19, and we can’t wait!

A year ago, Jay Bruce was coming off a superb 2010. In his age-23 season, he'd hit .281/.353/.493 with 25 home runs in 148 games, including .306 with 15 home runs in just 186 at-bats in the second half. With that surge in mind, Bruce appeared to be an obvious breakout candidate and even sleeper MVP pick in some quarters.

Likewise, Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus had played well as 23-year-olds in 2010. All three had come up through the minors as prized prospects and with the belief that young players mature and improve as they head into their peak seasons (generally 25 to 30), there were big expectations for the trio.

I wasn't necessarily quite so sure. Before the season, I wrote an article headlined "Why Jay Bruce may have reached his peak." The article was based on some anecdotal evidence that not all good age-23 hitters take a big leap forward. Here's how the three guys performed in 2011:

Bruce
2010: .281/.353/.493, 124 OPS+, 4.4 HR%, 10.1 BB%, 23.7 SO%
2011: .256/.341/.474, 119 OPS+, 4.8 HR%, 10.7 BB%, 23.7 SO%

Bruce failed to capitalize on his big 2010 second half and basically showed the same performance and skill set as 2010. He did make his first All-Star team and remained healthy, playing in 157 games.

McCutchen
2010: .286/.365/.449, 121 OPS+, 2.5 HR%, 10.7 BB%, 13.6 SO%
2011: .259/.364/.456, 127 OPS+, 3.4 HR%, 13.1 BB%, 18.7 SO%

McCutchen had appeared to make The Leap with a monster first half, hitting .291/.390/.505. He was one of the best players in the National League, but tailed off to a .216 average in the second half. Some felt he got too homer-happy and while he did hit a few more home runs and draw more walks, the decrease in batting average meant his overall production was essentially identical to 2010. The numbers show that he struck out more often in the second half and his batting average on balls in play dropped from .319 to .251. Some of that could be attributed to bad luck, but that could also be the result of hitting too many fly balls.

Rasmus
2010: .276/.361/.498, 132 OPS+, 4.3 HR%, 11.8 BB%, 27.7 SO%
2011: .225/.298/.391, 89 OPS+, 2.7 HR%, 9.5 BB%, 22.1 SO%

Rasmus actually was good through April, hitting .301 with a .392 on-base percentage, but then he hit .253 in May and .213 in June and somewhere in there he feuded with Tony La Russa. The Cardinals traded him to the Blue Jays, he hurt his wrist and hit just .173 in 35 games with Toronto.

So what can we predict for their futures? I thought I'd run another little anecdotal list of similar players. I checked all outfielders who were regulars at age 23 since 1969 and posted an OPS+ between 115 and 145. This eliminates the guys who were superstars early on, like Reggie Jackson or Ken Griffey Jr. or Vladimir Guerrero, and gives us a list of players with similar production. How much better did these players get?



The short answer of what the chart means: Nine of the players showed a noteworthy improvement from their age-23 OPS+ to their average OPS+ from 25 to 30. (Those eight: Jack Clark, Tim Raines, Danny Tartabull, Rickey Henderson, Rafael Palmeiro, Jim Rice, Bobby Murcer, Dave Winfield, Amos Otis). Two would have a late-career surge in their 30s (Ellis Burks, Luis Gonzalez). The list has produced three Hall of Famers (Henderson, Rice, Winfield) and two more Hall candidates in Raines and Palmeiro, plus Andruw Jones if you want to consider him. But the list also contains guys like Lloyd Moseby, a terrific all-around player at 23 in what proved to be his best season. Or Willie Montanez, who hit 30 home runs as a rookie but only hit 20 once more in his career.

Based on this chart, there's about a one-in-three chance that a 23-year-old who has already put up good numbers will improve. Considering we're talking about three players here ... I guess that means one of the three will make The Leap.

My pick, not surprisingly, would be on McCutchen. He has the best all-around game of the three, draws walks and strikes out considerably less than the other two. His second-half struggles are a concern and he needs to get back to a solid approach at the plate and take his home runs when they come.

That doesn't mean Bruce doesn't have a 40-homer season in him or Rasmus puts it all together in Toronto.

In the end, we don't really know. As our SweetSpot blog affiliate says, you can't predict baseball.

When the baseball writers hand out their annual league MVP awards, what is the trophy supposed to symbolize? It’s called the Most Valuable Player, but does that mean most valuable to his team, sort of an ambiguous definition used mostly to suggest players on non-playoff teams have no value? Or does it mean the best player in the league, regardless of where that player’s team finishes in the standings?

Now, to me, it’s not that complicated of a debate: Doesn’t “best” imply most valuable to your team? If you’re giving extra credit to a guy on a playoff team, aren’t you potentially rewarding the quality of his teammates? While it’s clear to me, it’s not clear to everyone; this debate rages on every season.

Before I list my leading MVP candidates of 2011, let’s discuss each of the voting philosophies and the three subcategories under each.

"Most valuable to his team"
1. The best player on a playoff team, preferably one that barely makes it to the playoffs, and preferably one without a strong supporting cast.

Example: Joey Votto, Reds, 2010. Votto and Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols had virtually identical statistics in 2010, but the Reds made the playoffs while the Cardinals fell short. In what should have been a close MVP instead turned into a landslide, as Votto collected 31 of 32 first-place votes.

2. The player on a playoff team who drives in the most runs.

Example: Miguel Tejada, A’s, 2002. Under criteria No. 1, an MVP candidate on a great team is often penalized because the team coasted to the pennant and could have won even without the player. The 2002 A’s won 103 and cruised into the playoffs, but Tejada drove in 131 runs.

3. A player on a playoff team who fits a good storyline.

Example: Ichiro Suzuki, 2001 Mariners. It’s difficult to argue that Ichiro was better than second baseman Bret Boone (or A’s first baseman Jason Giambi), but the story was too intriguing to pass: skinny right fielder comes over from Japan, hits .350, energizes the Mariners, team wins 116 games. This criteria is often used in lieu of a strong statistical argument.

"The best player"

1. It should go to the most outstanding player in the league, regardless of the quality of his teammates.

Example: Cal Ripken, 1991 Orioles. Ripken was clearly the best player in the AL in 1991, hitting .323/.374/.566 and winning a Gold Glove. It was maybe the greatest season a shortstop ever had and it takes a bunch of calculators to know it. The Orioles finished 67-95, yet Ripken only barely edged out Cecil Fielder, even though Fielder’s OPS was 80 points lower and he was a fat, slow first baseman.

2. It should go to the player with the most RBIs.

This is the problem in defining "best player": Some voters don’t, umm, consider the whole package. The RBI leader often reigns supreme in this scenario.

Example: Ryan Howard, 2006 Phillies, and Justin Morneau, 2006 Twins. Albert Pujols had a higher batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, scored more runs, played better defense and ran the bases better. But Howard had 12 more RBIs. Morneau was only eighth in the AL in OPS and Joe Mauer was the Twins’ best all-around player, but Morneau was second in the league with 130 RBIs. (League leader David Ortiz was eliminated due to the "his team didn’t make the playoffs" corollary.)

3. The player with the best statistical résumé -- including advanced metrics.

Example: Barry Bonds, 2003 Giants. Bonds didn’t lead the league in home runs, batting average, RBIs or runs. In fact, he didn’t even drive in 100 runs. But it was impossible to ignore that .529 on-base percentage and .749 slugging percentage.

OK, now let’s rank the MVP candidates under each corollary.

Most valuable to his team, barely makes playoffs.


National League
1. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks.
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers.
3. Lance Berkman, Cardinals.

Upton has a huge advantage in this category, as the D-backs rely mostly on lineup depth than individual stars. Braun has help from Prince Fielder and Berkman has plenty of support from Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols. If the D-backs beat out the Giants, it could be a landslide vote for Upton. Note that under this criteria no Phillies can be MVP (they should waltz into the playoffs) and guys such as Matt Kemp and Andrew McCutchen have no shot since their teammates weren’t as good.

American League
1. Jered Weaver, Angels.
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians.

Doesn’t Weaver have to be the clear favorite if you prefer this philosophy? I mean, Dan Haren is very good and Howie Kendrick is having a nice little season, but the rest of this team? The outfield collectively has a sub-.300 on-base percentage, the first baseman has an OBP under .300, the catcher can’t hit, the bullpen is 17-18. How is this team in the race? Jered Weaver. You gotta go Weaver if you’re talking most valuable to his team.

Of course, pitchers never win the MVP award and the Angels may not beat out the Rangers, so that could slide the vote to Cabrera. Of course, the Indians may not make the playoffs, which means picking somebody from the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers or Rangers -- which means picking from several candidates.

Most valuable to his team, the player on a playoff team who drives in the most runs.

National League
1. Ryan Howard, Phillies.
2. Prince Fielder, Brewers.
3. Lance Berkman, Cardinals/Ryan Braun, Brewers.

Howard leads the NL in RBIs. The Phillies will win the East. The offense isn’t great … but Howard STILL has a lot of ribbies. Ergo, logic says he must be the most valuable player.

American League
1. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox.
2. Mark Teixeira, Yankees.
3. Curtis Granderson, Yankees.

Gonzalez leads the majors with 90 RBIs. The Red Sox are in first place. ‘Nuff said.

Most valuable to his team, player on a playoff team who fits a good storyline.

National League
1. Prince Fielder, Brewers.
2. Lance Berkman, Cardinals.
3. Carlos Beltran, Giants.

Doesn’t the Fielder story add up nicely: Son of a former big leaguer, MVP candidate himself, has a big season as he heads off into free agency, carrying the small-market Brewers into the playoffs? Berkman’s comeback story is a nice angle if the Cardinals pass the Brewers. It’s a long shot, but if Beltran has a big final two months he fits nicely in this category.

American League
1. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox.
2. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians.
3. Curtis Granderson, Yankees.

Big-market team pays a ransom in prospects to acquire slugging first baseman -- and he delivers! Beantown fans fall in love with his sweet stroke and clutch hitting. Three-year-old kids in Boston who have never seen the Red Sox win a World Series can dream about a title. Cabrera’s unlikely MVP tale is best written if Cleveland makes the playoffs and Granderson’s story of learning to hit left-handers is an inspiring tale of hard work and perseverance.

The best player, most outstanding regardless of quality of teammates.


National League
1. Matt Kemp, Dodgers.
2. Jose Reyes, Mets.
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers.

I’m just kind of eyeballing this one, but it seems most observers would rate Kemp and Reyes as the best all-around players in 2011, with Pujols out of the discussion due to his injury. It’s not clear-cut in either direction, but Kemp leads the league in OPS while hitting .320 with 26 home runs, 84 RBIs and 28 steals while playing a premium defensive position. Reyes doesn’t have the home run numbers, but has 26 doubles and 16 triples and plays a solid shortstop.

American League
1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays.
2. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox.
3. Curtis Granderson, Yankees.

Most of the MVP discussion, tweets or chat questions I’ve seen seem to revolve around these three guys. Bautista’s power numbers were once otherworldly, but he’s slowed down in the second half, hitting under .250 with just one home run his past 15 games, cutting his lead over Mark Teixeira to just one.

Best player with the most RBIs.


National League
1. Matt Kemp, Dodgers.
2. Prince Fielder, Brewers.
3. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies.

As mentioned above, Ryan Howard leads the NL in RBIs, but many voters would eliminate him from the "best player" category due to a substandard batting average and lack of all-around game. That opens the door for Kemp, Fielder and Tulo’s all-around game.

American League
1. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox.
2. Curtis Granderson, Yankees.
3. Robinson Cano, Yankees.

This corollary brings Cano into the MVP discussion, a second baseman with a nice batting average, power numbers and good defensive reputation. Miguel Cabrera would usually enter the discussion here, but he has just 69 RBIs, well behind the league leaders.

Best players, statistical résumé, including advanced metrics
This is when we look at things like WAR, runs created per 27 outs, advanced fielding metrics and the like. For our listing, we’ll just average together the WAR totals from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com.

National League
1. Matt Kemp, Dodgers.
2. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates.
3. Jose Reyes, Mets.

Ryan Braun is fourth. All three of these guys will face an uphill battle in the actual voting due to the "not a playoff team” rule that many writers invoke. Kemp rates as the clear No. 1 player in the NL under the B-R formula, as it likes his fielder better than FanGraphs, which gives a very slight overall edge to Reyes over Kemp and Justin Upton.

American League
1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays.
2. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox.

Bautista once had a commanding lead, but Pedroia has been closing ground. According to FanGraphs, Bautista’s WAR is 6.9, Pedroia’s 6.8, not enough to sneeze over. Ellsbury ranks third to those in both rankings, although about a win behind in both cases. Why does Pedroia rate so high? His defense rates as superb, second-best in the AL in runs saved to Brett Gardner under FanGraphs and fifth-best under B-R (which also rates Gardner first).

* * * *

Anyway, what do I think? Because I know you want to know.

As you have probably guessed by now, I lean to the "best player" philosophy. Sure, if two candidates are close after everything is analyzed, I may break the tie to the guy on the playoff team. That seems fair, and often these debates are close enough when that’s the case.

In the NL, I’d go: (1) Matt Kemp; (2) Jose Reyes; (3) Ryan Braun; (4) Andrew McCutchen; (5) Justin Upton.

Overall, this race is far from decided. Upton is the late riser and red hot right now. To me, Braun is clearly the better Brewers candidate over Prince Fielder. A reader asked in my chat if I thought Roy Halladay or any NL pitcher has a case; right now, I think any of the pitchers rate behind these guys. Halladay hasn’t even separated himself in the Cy Young race from Cole Hamels or Clayton Kershaw.

In the AL, I’d go: (1) Dustin Pedroia; (2) Jose Bautista; (3) Jacoby Ellsbury; (4) Jered Weaver; (5) Adrian Gonzalez.

Pedroia and Bautista are extremely close in my book. Pedroia is fourth in the AL in on-base percentage, seventh in OPS, sixth in runs scored, is hitting .314 and doing this while playing great defense at a premium position. (I know Yankees fans will complain about not seeing Granderson here, but Pedroia’s OBP is 42 points higher; that, dear readers, is a huge advantage. Granderson also doesn’t rate well on defense.)

Anyway, that’s my AL vote. I will add this: If you want to say Jose Bautista deserves it, I won’t disagree.

And we do have two months left. Let the arguments begin! (And don’t worry, in late September, we’ll do a much more in-depth breakdown.)

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

You already know the Pittsburgh Pirates are already in a position to break their 18-season streak of losing campaigns. This is also the first time since 1990 the Bucs have had as many as three All-Stars on the squad. Back then, it was Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla and Neal Heaton, but this year it’s a trio of first-time All-Stars: Joel Hanrahan, Andrew McCutchen and Kevin Correia.

How the three Pirates arrived remains slightly controversial, especially with the furor that cropped up after NL All-Stars skipper Bruce Bochy initially overlooked McCutchen. When asked Monday about how he put his roster together, he was quick to observe, “I got hit pretty hard on McCutchen.”

Add in Correia’s selection over, say, the Braves’ Tommy Hanson, and you can understand how this might be the latest cause for frustration over the picks. Hanrahan, however, isn’t having any of it. On being joined by two of his teammates, he quipped, “It’s nice to have three guys who belong here, instead of one guy who has to be.”

McCutchen was aware of the support that had come his way after Bochy’s initial snub. “I heard a lot, my girlfriend as well. I found myself on lists of ‘top snubs,’ [and] made me think I deserve to be here. That felt good, that felt really good. It let me know people wanted to see me.” As a result of the outcry over his initial inclusion, McCutchen feels it might have raised his profile, if anything: “I definitely felt I got more recognition. It was a little bit of an eye-opener for me.”

He knows this is his chance to show people what he can do on a national stage. “It’s a great opportunity. A lot of people play this game [the All-Star Game] without getting here,” McCutchen said.

The way McCutchen found out -- the Pirates were hosting the Cubs on Saturday in front of the Pirates’ 10th sellout of the season -- made his selection that much more memorable. Fans gave him a standing ovation and he got a curtain call.

“It was quite humbling. They make that announcement (in the fourth inning), you see the fans stand up and go crazy. ... I really just cherish that moment,” he said.

That reflects a change in what the Pirates mean to Major League Baseball.

"Everyone’s rooting for us. It’s special. This is one of those Cinderella stories. It could change people’s lives. We started off in spring training saying what we can do,” McCutchen said. “We’re at the point where we believe in what we can do. We know we can. Sky’s the limit for us.” Noting that he’d seen trailers of Moneyball, he said it made him think about the Pirates, about how “one guy can change a team -- I want to see that movie!”

It is a marked contrast to how he felt when he was called up in 2009. “I was just happy that I was there,” said McCutchen. “Once that settled down, then I started to notice it’s all about winning, and if you don’t do too well, somebody will take your place. There’s definitely a different feeling from past years. We believe we’re going to win.”

Could McCutchen see it coming? “I definitely could. We had guys in the minor leagues I knew could do a good job. I knew it was going to change for us.”

Correia chipped in, noting that, “Alex Presley, I don’t think I’ve seen him make an out in three weeks. We keep bringing up kids like that, and we’ll be OK.”

As for his own introduction to life as an All-Star, the well-traveled Correia was more than modest about his inclusion on the team. “I’m at the All-Star Game, and I might be the fourth-best starter on [my] team. If Paul Maholm got the offense I’ve had, he’d be sitting here.”

But the fourth-best starter, on the Pirates? Per WAR, Correia’s exactly right about his place in the Pirates’ picture.

“Jeff Karstens is throwing the ball as good as any guy in baseball." Correia said. "Charlie Morton has ace-like stuff; he made some mechanical changes, and he throws a two-seam fastball that none of the hitters in this room wants to face. You don’t get much of a break going through our rotation.”

Hanrahan was more generous to his teammate, saying, “I don’t think you can number any of these guys. They take pride going deep in their games. We don’t have the sexy pitching staff, but we get the job done.”

As a nine-year veteran it is sweeter for Correia to be a first-time All-Star. “I definitely appreciate it more. If it happens early, you think it’ll keep happening. Now, I get the full experience of it.” It’s no surprise that Correia looks at this season and thinks, “I definitely made the right choice, coming to Pittsburgh.”

The trio is excited about being here for more than honor. As Hanrahan noted, where they might have joked in the past about Pirates All-Stars, “kind of smirking and saying, go get home-field advantage for the Cardinals, now we’re playing to get it for ourselves.”

“It’s definitely different from the past -- we expect to win," Correia added. "I’ve had a lot more fun surprising people.”

Which would mean ending the streak of 18 losing seasons, presumably, but McCutchen cares more about pursuing higher ambitions.

“It’s more for the fans than for us. It’ll be great for the city. But we’re not going to be satisfied with just finishing over .500. We’re hungry to win a championship.”

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Here are five reasons to check out Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast with myself and … well … it was just me, but for half of the show -- the good half! -- I was joined by special guest Jim Bowden!

1. We discuss the return of Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter and the pending reactivation of Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols. Hey, some players are simply fast healers!

2. I floated the idea that certain teams seem to be coasting along, assuming their October tickets are punched, and Jim quickly puts me in my place!

3. The process of choosing the All-Stars is an interesting and much-debated one, and Jim shares his strong thoughts on ignoring Andrew McCutchen and other matters.

4. We get the general manager perspective on when a big-league team knows when to throw in the towel and be sellers at or before the trade deadline.

5. I reveal my top 10 in the Power Rankings, but Jim has a different team in the top spot and explains why.

Plus: Excellent emails discussing Madison Bumgarner's one awful outing, the large middle class in baseball, pros and cons of next week's Home Run Derby and so much more on Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast! Check out all the podcasts at ESPNRadio.com/podcenter.

Sixty-six All-Stars were announced Sunday and somehow they still messed it up. Here are my five biggest All-Star snubs.

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates. I figured he was a lock for the team, but Bruce Bochy was put into a bit of a bind when the players voted in Jay Bruce as one of the three outfield reserves in the NL (along with Hunter Pence and Matt Holliday). Justin Upton was added as the deserving lone representative of the Diamondbacks, but Bochy selected Carlos Beltran over McCutchen, even though McCutchen has a higher average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, more steals and plays a superior center field as opposed to a mediocre right field. I can only guess Bochy viewed this as an opportunity to talk with Beltran and persuade him to drop his no-trade clause if the Giants attempt to trade for him.

(And, no, Bruce is not better than McCutchen. Bruce has more home runs, but is hitting .230 with a .314 OBP on the road.)

2. CC Sabathia, P, Yankees. He's scheduled to start the Sunday before the All-Star Game, so would have been replaced on the roster anyway, but he deserved the honor of making the squad. Manager Ron Washington could have resolved the CC situation in one of two easy ways: Pick him over Tigers closer Jose Valverde (very mediocre numbers for a closer) or Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson (whom I think is a deserving All-Star).

3. Tommy Hanson, P, Braves. Bochy had four roster spots for pitchers and picked Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain (no issues there, even if they are his own guys), Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard (the lone Nats rep and having a dominating year in middle relief) and ... Ryan Vogelsong, a journeyman right-hander who had been out of the majors for four seasons. Look, Vogelsong's story is one of the best of the season. His numbers are excellent (6-1, 2.09), but you can't pick Lincecum and Cain and a guy who has had 12 good starts with no previous track record of success. Bochy said Vogelsong will be his emergency long man in case the game goes extra innings, so he's unlikely to get into the game, but it was still an odd selection over Hanson, Ian Kennedy, Jhoulys Chacin or Shaun Marcum.

4. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers. The fans did a terrific job voting in the starters this season. Really, the only debatable selection was Derek Jeter, and can you really fault the fans for voting in one of the greatest players of all time over a group of shortstops who, while having excellent seasons, don't have a long track record of excellence? Trouble is, there was no way to squeeze Peralta on the roster. With two DHs, it's hard for Washington to slot deserving bench players, since he had to pick Michael Cuddyer and Matt Wieters to represent the Twins and Orioles.

5. Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies. I wrote the other day that it would be difficult to find room for him on the roster, and since I slot him slightly behind McCutchen in the pecking order, I'm having trouble squeezing him on the roster. If you give the Beltran slot to McCutchen, where does Victorino fit? Gaby Sanchez is the lone Marlins rep, but you could give his slot to Anibal Sanchez (replacing Vogelsong or Cain) and find room for Victorino.

Anyway, both managers did about as well as they could. Bochy made one major gaffe in logic (Beltran over McCutchen) while Washington had better options than Jose Valverde. Considering the managers got hamstrung by the players voting in Russell Martin, Michael Young, Carlos Quentin and Bruce, it makes it tough to fill out the roster.

(FYI, five pitchers are scheduled to start next Sunday and will have to be replaced by rule: Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, James Shields, Cole Hamels and Cain.)

Finally, my nominees for the five players in each league for the "extra man" vote:

American League: CC Sabathia, P, Yankees; Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers; Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox; Ben Zobrist, 2B, Rays; Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox.

National League: Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates; Tommy Hanson, P, Braves; Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies; Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals; Ian Kennedy, P, Diamondbacks.

P.S.: Can we get rid of the rule that says the players have to vote in three relievers? Chris Perez? Brandon League? Ugh.

Update: The players voted in Michael Young as the BACKUP designated hitter. Yes, somebody apparently believes it's necessary to have two DHs on the AL roster by rule, so my mistake in originally blaming Ron Washington for that selection. (Sorry, Ron.) Actually, Washington did basically what he could, especially since he knew CC was pitching Sunday anyway, so he wanted to make sure he got C.J. Wilson and David Price on the team. Really, this whole system is a joke. You can't have a game that MATTERS, and yet have a system in selecting rosters that's completely absurd. In the end, the only guy in my book with an All-Star beef worth caring about is Andrew McCutchen, who wasn't even named as one of the "Final Vote" candidates in the NL.

The Pittsburgh Pirates couldn’t complete a series sweep of the Boston Red Sox, but taking two of three and knocking the Sox out of first place qualifies as one of the biggest moral victories for the franchise in years.

A year ago, the Pirates were a disaster. Nothing new there, of course, but even for them their 57-105 season was below standards -- the 105 losses were the most in the majors since the Royals lost 106 in 2005, and they allowed the most runs in the majors and scored the second-fewest. Considering their big offseason moves were to sign Lyle Overbay, Matt Diaz and Kevin Correia, expectations were not high, but here stand the Pirates at 39-38 and just four games out of first place in the NL Central.

It’s enough to make them my biggest surprise story of the first half.

But ... can they keep it going? The Central remains wide open: The Cardinals have lost 12 of 15, the Brewers struggle on the road (15-24), and the Reds haven’t put it together (tied with the Pirates). Let’s look at four key reasons why the Pirates are a game over .500 and whether they can improve in the second half.

1. Andrew McCutchen is awesome.

According to FanGraphs’ WAR (wins above replacement), McCutchen has been the sixth-most valuable position player in baseball, trailing only Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, Matt Kemp and Curtis Granderson. His defense has improved, his on-base percentage is up 35 points from a year ago, and his slugging percentage is up a bit. Last season, he was a good player. He’s become a superstar.

Likelihood to continue: Excellent.

2. The team’s defense has improved dramatically.

Last season, UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) ranked the Pirates as the worst defensive team in the majors. This season it ranks them ninth. Other than McCutchen, no individual Pirate rates as especially spectacular; they’re just solid across the board. Neil Walker and Ronny Cedeno appear improved from last season and the fewer innings Pedro Alvarez plays at third base only makes the defense better.

Likelihood to continue: Fair. Of course, the defensive numbers are tied into the next category ...

3. The starting rotation has been solid.

The Pirates are sixth in the NL with a 3.70 ERA from the rotation. Let’s take a closer look at the five starters.

Jeff Karstens: Currently ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.66 ERA, despite allowing 14 home runs in 84 2/3 innings. No offense to Jeff Karstens or his family, but he’s not this good. As a finesse righty with an 88-89 mph fastball, there's only a fine line of success for him. So far he’s managed to toe that line: Thirteen of those homers have come with the bases empty and he’s held hitters to a .151 average with runners in scoring position.

Paul Maholm: He’s been the biggest beneficiary of the improved defense, as his batting average on balls in play, .308 over his career, is at .250 in 2011. His K and walk rates aren’t really any different than his career norms. While his home run rate has dropped, it seems unlikely he can maintain a 3.21 ERA over the second half.

Kevin Correia: We’ve discussed him in the blog before. He’s cut way down on his walks at the expense of fewer strikeouts, but the new approach has worked. As long as he continues walking two batters per nine, he can remain successful even with his low strikeout rate. As with Maholm, however, any decline in defense will be especially problematic for him.

Charlie Morton: He’s not that good. Among 113 qualifed major league starters, he’s 62nd in ERA ... but 110th in runners allowed per nine. OK, he’s gotten a lot of groundballs so far and has allowed just two home runs. Call me skeptical.

James McDonald: He’s 112th among those 113 starters in runners allowed per nine. Until he stops walking four or five batters a game, he’s not going to be anything more than a fifth starter.

Likelihood to continue: Poor. Clint Hurdle has expertly managed the rotation and seems to understand their limitations. The Pirates have pitched the fewest 100-pitch games in the league and rank 14th among NL teams in innings by the starters. Even though Hurdle has done a nice job with them, I don’t believe they’ll sustain this level.

4. Joel Hanrahan has been lights out as closer.

Hanrahan should make the All-Star team with a 1.24 ERA and a perfect 22-for-22 in save opportunities. Hanrahan has always had the big fastball, but like Correia, he seems to have been benefited from some simple advice from pitching coach Ray Searage: throw more strikes, walk fewer guys. Last season, Hanrahan blew hitters away, fanning 12.9 per nine. He walked 3.4 per nine, which was actually way down from his previous season with the Nationals. This year, his strikeouts are down but so are his walks. He's throwing his fastball more and his slider less, and it’s resulted in more groundballs.

Likelihood to continue: Excellent, although he will blow a save or three in the second half.

As you can see, the Pirates will be hard-pressed to stay in the race, or even finish .500. But they’ve been a terrific story so far and, who knows, maybe they will stay in this thing and have their first .500 season since 1992. I certainly hope so.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Boston at Philadelphia, Tuesday through Thursday

Tuesday: Josh Beckett (6-2, 1.86) vs. Cliff Lee (8-5, 2.87)
Wednesday: John Lackey (5-6, 7.36) vs. Vance Worley (2-1. 2.83)
Thursday: Jon Lester (9-4, 3.66) vs. Kyle Kendrick (4-4, 3.23)

The pitching matchups fall in Boston's favor as right now the Sox are scheduled to miss Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay, although Hamels could start Thursday on regular rest if Charlie Manuel decides to move around his rotation. Beckett hasn't pitched since June 15 due to an illness but leads the majors in ERA, WHIP (0.92) and opponents' batting average (.174). Lee, meanwhile, is coming off consecutive shutouts and has allowed just one run his past four starts.

The Phillies have struggled to score runs in interleague play, with just 17 runs in nine games against Texas, Seattle and Oakland. The Red Sox lead the majors in runs scored, but will presumably be without DH David Ortiz, although Terry Francona has mentioned the possibility of playing Adrian Gonzalez in the outfield so Big Papi doesn't sit for nine straight games. I wouldn't make the move -- you're making defense considerably worse at two positions while risking injury to Gonzalez -- but it's something to watch for.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Saturday: Clayton Kershaw (8-3, 2.93) vs. Jered Weaver (9-4, 1.97), Dodgers at Angels

There are several must-see duels this week -- including the above Beckett-Lee game, a Tommy Hanson-Michael Pineda matchup in Seattle on Tuesday that could go 19 scoreless innings, Cole Hamels-Ricky Romero on Friday -- but this one I'll be sure to watch, record or check out the replay on MLB.TV. By the way, considering the mess with the Dodgers, are the Angels now L.A.'s No. 1 team?


After "slumping" in May with a 3.38 ERA, Weaver has a 1.76 ERA in June. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in a game this season and has now gone 24 consecutive starts allowing four runs or fewer dating back to last August. Kershaw -- who had a 31-start streak of four runs or less of his own from May 2009 to April 2010 -- leads the majors in strikeouts.

From Baseball-Reference.com, the longest such streaks of allowing four runs or fewer since 2001:

1. Jake Peavy, Padres, Aug. 2003-May 2005: 39 starts (20-7, 2.39 ERA, 244 IP)
2. Johan Santana, Twins, July 2006-July 2007, 35 starts (21-8, 2.60 ERA, 238 IP)
3. Johan Santana, Twins, May 2004-May 2005, 32 starts (23-5, 2.04 ERA, 229 IP)
4. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, May 2009-April 2010, 31 starts (9-7, 2.33 ERA, 177 IP)
5. Josh Johnson, Marlins, April 2009-Sept. 2009, 29 starts (13-5, 3.10 ERA, 182 IP)
5. Roger Clemens, Astros, Sept. 2004-Aug. 2005, 29 starts (14-4, 1.35 ERA, 199 IP)

It's a good reminder of how dominant Santana was over those three seasons for the Twins, when he went 55-19 with a 2.75 ERA and WHIP under 1.00.

THREE SWINGS
1. Josh Hamilton is right about one thing -- he doesn't hit in day games. He tried new contact lenses on Saturday and went 0-4 with four strikeouts (he wasn't wearing sunglasses at the plate) and Ron Washington didn't play him Sunday. Is there any truth to his "blue eyes in day games" theory? From the Elias Sports Bureau, here are the top 10 active hitters with the biggest night/day batting average differential (minimum 2,000 plate appearances):

1. Hamilton: .333 night, .240 day (-.093)
2. Delmon Young: .307 night, .249 day (-.058)
3. Casey Blake: .277 night, .229 day (-.048)
4. Denard Span: .302 night, .263 day (-.039)
5. Michael Bourn: .277 night, .239 day (-.038)
6. Rickie Weeks: .270 night, .232 day (-.038)
7. Luke Scott: .276 night, .239 day (-.037)
8. Johnny Damon: .298 night, .261 day (-.037)
9. Craig Counsell: .269 night, .232 day (-.037)
10. Prince Fielder: .294 night, .258 day (-.036)

Based on this limited sample size, let's just say Hamilton's blue-eye theory doesn't quite hold up. Clearly, he does have a real problem during day games -- his split is 35 points worse than Delmon Young, the No. 2 guy.

But what's more interesting is six of the 10 guys on the list have played primarily for dome/retractable roof teams -- Young (domes in Tampa and Minnesota), Span (Metrodome), Bourn (Houston), Weeks (Milwaukee), Counsell (Arizona and Milwaukee) and Fielder (Milwaukee). Makes you wonder if the lighting during day games in those places isn't very good. Worth a more in-depth study, perhaps.

2. Through June 25, MLB attendance was down 325,000 from a similar point in 2010. You'll hear this hammered home all season long by baseball haters. That's about 282 fans per game. Of course, what the haters won't mention is the Dodgers by themselves are down about 371,000 -- and can you blame Dodgers fans for not showing in droves? The second-biggest drop? The Mets, down about 144,000 fans. So take out the two troubled ownership groups and attendance is up over a year ago. The biggest increases? The Rangers and Giants. And Sunday's games saw six crowds over 40,000-plus. Don't let them tell you baseball is dying.

3. Brien Jackson, who writes for our Yankee blog, had a couple tweets on Saturday night that I couldn't agree with more. It's time the New York media (and to a certain extent, Yankee fans) realize that A.J. Burnett is what he is -- an overpaid No. 3 starter. It's time the media stops setting Burnett up for its wrath by saying he has great stuff. Burnett's a two-pitch pitcher without great command, and his fastball isn't even what it used to be. Look, Burnett's had a nice career -- 117 wins, ERA better than league average -- but he's never been a great pitcher. Yes, he led the AL once in strikeouts, but the last four seasons he's ranked 90th, 48th, 50th and 29th among major league qualified starters in ERA.

RANT OF THE WEEK

Entering Sunday, the quality start percentage across the major leagues was 55 percent, up two percent from last season and seven percent from 2008 and 2009. It's the highest total since 1988's 56 percent. Complete games are up, on a pace of 207 for the season, which would be the most since 209 in 2003. Starters are averaging 6.1 innings per start, the most since 6.1 in 1998.

All this is a way of saying starters are pitching better and going deeper into games than a long time. OK, no surprise there. But few teams are adjusting to this -- most are still carrying 12, or even 13, pitchers. Managers are gaining slight tactical advantages out of the bullpen ... but giving up perhaps bigger tactical advantages with a smaller bench of position players. If starters are going 6-7 innings per start, it's very difficult to get seven or eight relievers regular work. Let's see teams cut down to six or seven relievers and carry an extra bat on the bench that you can use to pinch-hit against that LOOGY or ROOGY in the middle innings. Runs are scarce these days; having more pinch-hitters available could be a nice little edge.

Follow David on Twitter @dschoenfield and the SweetSpot blog on Facebook.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Looking around baseball it’s not too difficult to figure out the faces of each franchise. It's not necessarily the best player, as is the case with the, um, New York Yankees and shortstop Derek Jeter. In some cases it's not an everyday player at all, but a pitcher, as with Tim Lincecum of the World Series champion San Francisco Giants. What, you thought the face of the Giants was Nate Schierholtz?

Anyway, you must recall the very popular franchise draft from two weeks ago, as well as the very successful second-round follow-up with myself and David Schoenfield. But what will the major league baseball franchises look like in five years? Let's take a look -- fun yet serious -- at faces of the franchise, circa 2016!

National League

Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward, outfield. Hopefully by then Chipper Jones will not only have stepped aside, but also will have stopped ripping the team's future stud.

Florida Marlins: Hanley Ramirez, outfield. What, you thought he'd still be a shortstop? He's barely one now. I thought about Scott Cousins, but the Giants wouldn't allow it.

New York Mets: David Einhorn, owner. OK, so that's probably not a good idea, but consider the Dallas Mavericks. Is their face Dirk Nowitzki or is it Mark Cuban? Plus, how many current "star" Mets will be gone before August? Will any current Mets be around in three years? Enough. I'm picking the Mets' face to be ... shortstop Wilmer Flores. He's 19 and not tainted yet.

Philadelphia Phillies: Domonic Brown, outfield. Some of the team's core will be retired in five years. The rest ... will be retired in three years. Yeah, it's not a young team. Brown will be good, though.

Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper, outfield. You might not realize it now, but in five years, this franchise should be extremely competitive. I'll take Harper over Stephen Strasburg, but both should be among the best in the game.

Chicago Cubs: Felix Hernandez, starting pitcher. Most people would say Starlin Castro, and I do like him, but when the Cubs trade the farm for King Felix late in 2012, he'll become The Man. Sorry, Seattle.

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto, first base. He's already won one MVP. Wouldn't shock me if Jay Bruce gets one soon, as well. Aroldis Chapman finishes a distant eighth in the conversation here.

Houston Astros: Delino DeShields Jr., second base. Last year's top draft pick should be a joy to watch and, let's face it, unless the Astros trade for their next face, there's not much here. Who is the face now? Hunter Pence could be a Yankee by November, let alone by 2016.

Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Braun, outfield. He'll be there forever, their 21st century version of Robin Yount.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew McCutchen, outfield. A year ago I might have gone with Pedro Alvarez, but not anymore. McCutchen is special, and he can actually hit.

St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols, first base. I nearly put Pujols in a Cubs uniform, but public pressure to keep him in St. Louis will be too great. Then again, look at A-Rod with the Yankees right now; in five years Pujols won't be such a statistical guarantee.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton, outfield. Not only that, this Upton, the one with monster power, should be one of the top players in the game and earn MVP awards.

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki, shortstop. Kind of hard to see him elsewhere, or a teammate more important. He has more staying power than CarGo.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Trayvon Robinson, outfield. Matt Kemp is only 26, but Robinson profiles as the center fielder down the road, an exciting athlete who won’t be looking to run from this Dodgers mess as soon as his contract ends. Sorry, sidebar. Plus, who knows if the Dodgers will be able to afford free agents by 2016?

San Diego Padres: Anthony Rizzo, first base. Has one game under his belt, and by 2016 he should be better than 35-year-old Red Sox DH Adrian Gonzalez.

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey, first base. Hey, a lot of collisions can happen in five years.

American League

Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado, shortstop. Looks like he'll be a middle-of-the-order presence at a middle-of-the-diamond spot, kind of like A-Rod used to be. Perhaps Matt Wieters will be hitting cleanup when Machado bats third. Or seventh.

Boston Red Sox: Carl Crawford, outfield. He's not going anywhere, and the production should be just fine. And that’s not sarcasm.

New York Yankees: Derek Jeter, manager. C'mon, that seems outrageous to you? You don't want him playing shortstop even next year, so this is a better deal. By the way, Alex Rodriguez will still be under contract, and clogging the DH spot full-time. Wait until Jeter tries to bench him.

Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria, third base. Perhaps one of the 1,453 amateur draft picks from this past week will become a stud, but Longoria will still be a Ray, and only 30.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brett Lawrie, outfield. Yeah, I think the kid will hit, and hit a lot. And by 2016 the Jose Bautista contract signed this February will have run out, but the franchise's future No. 2 all-time home run hitter (behind only Carlos Delgado) will sign a new one-year deal as the DH.

Chicago White Sox: David Wright, third base. The Mets clean house this winter and the star third baseman ends up in another large metropolis, in a deal centered around reliever Chris Sale and Brent Morel. He finds the Chicago media to be a breath of fresh air.

Cleveland Indians: Lonnie Chisenhall, third base. Pure hitter should be one of the league's top options at the hot corner by 2013. The Tribe will lock him and Jason Kipnis up much like Rockies did with Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

Detroit Tigers: Jacob Turner, starting pitcher. Former first-round pick should be a future ace, and he and Justin Verlander will get the franchise to numerous playoff appearances. Oh, and Miguel Cabrera will help, too.

Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer, first base. He'll win his first AL MVP award in 2014, and the Joey Votto clone will still be a stud years later. Like the Nationals, put your money on the Royals in five years.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer, outfield. This will not end like Jeter in New York, because Mauer will switch positions and will be only 33 in five years. And he'll have added two more batting titles to his ledger.

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout, outfield. You know everything we've been saying about how good Bryce Harper is supposed to be? A lot of people think Trout will be even better. And in five years he'll be only 24.

San Jose Athletics: Grant Green, second base. Team's top prospect will need to move from shortstop, but his bat will play quite nicely. As for the San Jose part, sorry to be negative, but without a stadium ... just blame Al Davis.

Seattle Mariners: Yu Darvish, starting pitcher. One of Ichiro Suzuki's final contributions in his Hall of Fame Mariners career is to convince the overpowering Japanese right-hander to come to the U.S. He accomplishes this a few months after King Felix is dealt to the Cubs.

Texas Rangers: Prince Fielder, first base. I can't see Josh Hamilton, currently 30, still doing this in five years. I can see Fielder with roughly 400 home runs by then.

I’m sure you have thoughts, so share them and remember, this is just an exercise. The commissioner’s office has yet to approve it.

OK, we had so much fun with the first round of the mock "franchise player draft" that we decided to conduct a second round -- primarily because we were shocked that Miguel Cabrera went unselected.

So we decided to see who the next 30 players might be. Now, the owners below didn't draft the players, but we included the names since the first-round pick may have affected the second-round pick. Dave went first and made all the odd picks, while Eric made the even selections.

31. Doug Glanville (Wilson Ramos): Miguel Cabrera -- Best hitter on the board, could have easily gone in the top 10. Not much defensively or in the car, but he can rake.

32. Tristan H. Cockcroft (Justin Upton): Adrian Gonzalez -- How are these great offensive monsters slipping so far? Tristan would have his 3-4 hitters for a while.

33. Barry Larkin (Roy Halladay): Jay Bruce -- Roy says he wants a big power bat for the middle of the order. And Bruce is a solid defender as well and just 24.

34. Buster Olney (Michael Pineda): Ryan Zimmerman -– It’s good to have strong defense at the hot corner, and Zimmerman brings that. Hopefully he brings more health, but he’s only 26.

35. Jonah Keri (Jose Bautista): Jered Weaver -- This team is in win-now mode with Bautista, so we’ll go with Jered Weaver, the best ace left on the board.

36. Tim Kurkjian (Clayton Kershaw): Tommy Hanson -- Why stop with one ace? Timmy would have the best one-two rotation punch in baseball!

37. Jayson Stark (Carlos Gonzalez): Jose Reyes -- We thought about the appropriately named Jayson Nix, but we’ll take a 28-year shortstop having his best season.

38. Rick Sutcliffe (Neftali Feliz): Elvis Andrus -- One Texas Ranger isn’t enough, and while Reyes is terrific, Andrus is 22 and has a lot of growing to do. Someday soon, he could be Reyes.

39. Kevin Goldstein (Stephen Strasburg): Eric Hosmer -- KG is a prospect hound so let’s give him Hosmer, who could be the best hitter in the game in a couple of years ... and the next decade after that.

40. Mark Mulder (Mike Stanton): Cole Hamels -- Gotta love the lefties! You say Weaver is the best ace on the board … I beg to differ!

41. Matt Meyers (Hanley Ramirez): Andrew McCutchen -- At least Eric didn’t give Mulder Ryan Howard. I’ll take the five-tool center fielder to go with our five-tool shortstop.

42. Jerry Crasnick (Starlin Castro): Matt Kemp -- Well, I had McCutchen all ready to go there, but Jerry profiled Matt Kemp back in March, and I got the feeling he believed a rebound season was coming. Kemp is, after all, only 26.

43. Christina Kahrl (Buster Posey): Colby Rasmus -- You can have Kemp. I'll take the center fielder with good on-base skills, power, good defense and is two years younger.

44. Jason Churchill (Carlos Santana): Jeremy Hellickson -- Jason’s catcher needs someone to throw to him. Hellickson might end up the AL Rookie of the Year, and there’s no reason he can’t keep improving.

45. Steve Berthiaume (Justin Verlander): Dustin Pedroia -- Off to a slow start, but he's a good hitter and fielder at a premium position. Plus, Steve is a big Sox fan.

46. Jim Caple (Joe Mauer): Prince Fielder -– At least one of Caple’s players should be durable and possess power. Fielder certainly can hit home runs. And when he moves Mauer from behind the plate, it wouldn’t be to first base, anyway!

47. Aaron Boone (Robinson Cano): CC Sabathia -- With Cano on board, Boone wants to win now, so it's the big, workhorse lefty who still has 7-8 more good years in. Or maybe 15 if he goes to Bartolo Colon's doctor.

48. Jim Bowden (David Price): Manny Machado –- Jim does love the prospects, and why do I (Bryce Harper) and Jason Grey (Mike Trout) get all the fun of choosing minor leaguers? Machado is an easily projectable shortstop and I’m sure Jim would agree he is worth waiting until 2013 for.

49. Jason Grey (Mike Trout): Brett Anderson: Jason is crushed by the Machado pick, but Anderson is a nice consolation prize.

50. Orel Hershiser (Jon Lester): Brian McCann -- I knew Grey would have wanted Machado! Orel probably scoffed at that and myriad other picks. He wants to win right now. McCann is arguably the best offensive catcher (with power) in the game, and he’s 27. Orel would love this pick!

51. Mark Simon (Ryan Braun): Drew Stubbs -- Mets fan Simon can't pull the trigger on David Wright and takes Stubbs and his 30/30 potential and terrific range in center.

52. Eric Karabell (Bryce Harper): Mat Latos -- Hey, it’s actually my pick! I’d better get my ace here. I considered Zack Greinke, but Latos is four years younger, and even if my home ballpark is small, I think Latos could overcome it. Plus, I’ll get him more run support.

53. Enrique Rojas (Albert Pujols): Carl Crawford -- Obviously, we're banking on both Pujols and Crawford just having slow starts. They'll bounce back ... right???

54. Jorge Arangure Jr. (Jason Heyward): Matt Wieters -- Jorge said he chose Heyward because he wanted a gifted offensive force for another 15 years. Enter Wieters, who will hit and head to many All-Star games.

55. Chris Singleton (Josh Johnson): Asdrubal Cabrera -- Nice grab on Wieters there, EK. I'm a believer in Cabrera, who is just 25 and pounding the ball so far this season. Even if he fades, we're talking about a switch-hitting shortstop with 15-20 homers and solid D.

56. Amy Nelson (Tim Lincecum): Logan Morrison -- Amy has her freaky ace, now she gets a young on-base machine developing power quicker than most thought. Plus, Amy and Logan will be Tweeting about their franchise 24/7. It’s a win-win.

58. David Schoenfield (Felix Hernandez): Pepe Frias -- HA! I control Schoenfield’s pick here! He gets the late-1970s shortstop that slugged .290 in his career, with one home run (off John Candelaria, no less) and he’s 62 years old. OK, he can have Shin-Soo Choo. We know he’s got power and good years left.

59. Keith Law (Evan Longoria): Brian Matusz. C'mon, EK, you know I'd take Terry Harmon over Pepe Frias. Give Klaw Matusz, a future Cy Young winner ... with the Yankees.

60. Karl Ravech (Troy Tulowitzki): Mark Teixeira -- All the things that Karl mentioned on his first overall pick make sense here. Consistent power, contract is set, winning organization ... Karl’s gonna score some runs! Plus, with the 61st pick in the franchise draft, he could always get some pitching ... wanna keep going?

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t finished over .500 in 18 years. The 1992 season was the year the Pirates won 96 games. Andy Van Slyke, their center fielder, won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and was in the All Star game. Zoom ahead 18 seasons and the Pirates have another special center fielder: Andrew McCutchen.


Like Van Slyke, McCutchen hopes he too can be a five-time Gold Glover and three-time All-Star. What is unknown is whether it will be with the Pirates. Will he be traded or leave through free agency like so many other former great Pirates, such as Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla?

The Pirates’ payroll for 2011 is close to $42 million, or $6 million less than they spent on their big-league players in 2008 and 2009. They have very little long-term exposure on the books: $10.25 million committed in 2012, and nothing committed in 2013 and beyond. In analyzing their roster, it is clear the top priority should be signing McCutchen to a long-term contract. The financial spreadsheet is clear, and the baseball evaluations generate few questions.

Behind the scenes, Neil Huntington, the Pirates’ VP and GM, and president Frank Coonelly, have been in negotiation with representatives for McCutchen for quite some time. McCutchen has told me on multiple occasions that he wants to stay with the Pirates. He’d like to sign a long-term deal with the Pirates and he has his agent grinding it out with the Pirates’ brass.

This past spring, Huntington told me that he would like to sign McCutchen if the numbers and years are right. As Clint Hurdle told me last Friday, the public doesn’t know how hard Huntington has been working on a multi-year contract for McCutchen.

For the Pirates to make this type of commitment, five years with a club option should be the minimum requirement. The advantage for the club in signing a player to a long-term deal is getting a discount on dollars, but more importantly getting the players' free-agent years. The player gets financial security. The fifth year gets the Pirates the first free-agent year and a club option gets the second free-agent year. A substantial buyout would have to be included for the player’s benefit if the club option isn’t picked up.

Let’s go into the reasons why it will benefit the Pirates to sign him to a long contract now:

1. The Stock Market Theory: His numbers are down. He hasn’t had his breakout year yet. He has not won a Gold Glove or Silver Slugger -- yet. Last year, Carlos Gonzalez had his breakout year, but it was too late for the Colorado Rockies at the end of the season to get Gonzalez signed at a good rate. The Los Angeles Dodgers will be kicking themselves for not signing Matt Kemp to a longer deal, and the Arizona Diamondback are pleased that Justin Upton is already tied up.
   
   The Pirates can sign McCutchen before his breakout year and get him for a lot less than they could get him a year from now. McCutchen isn’t going to get in the range of a Kemp or Gonzalez, but if the Pirates wait, who knows what this market will do. Things can change with an improved economy, a new CBA and an increase in industry revenues.
2. Exposure: The club has very little long-term exposure on the books and not a lot of arbitration-eligible players. The team can afford to sign McCutchen and fit him in their budget, which should be close to $48 million in 2012, with the potential of growing to at least the $55 million to $58 million range by the year 2016.
3. Fans: This would be a wise public relations move. When a front office scouts, signs and develops players, and those players succeed, they are going to keep them. Doing this would send a loud message to the Pirates’ fan base.
4. Players: It would be incentive for Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Neil Walker to produce, because it they do, the message is that you’ll get paid and rewarded with financial security.
5. Leadership: McCutchen represents the Pirates well in terms of his makeup, character and leadership. He is a great, quiet influence on the younger players in the Pirates’ system and can be a leader and face of the franchise for years to come.

Here is my assessment of McCutchen, using the scouting grades that run on a scale from 20-80:

Scouting Evaluation
Andrew McCutchen, 1st Round Pick, 11th overall 2005


Analysis
Offense: McCutchen has above-average bat speed and plate recognition. He has a direct path to the ball and gets started with his trigger on time. He has explosive, quick wrists with strong forearms. His compact swing allows him to hit line drives to all fields. Stays back on the ball well; power will develop in time because it’s there in batting practice. He could become a 25-homer hitter. He has blazing speed and can steal bases, but is a below-average base runner; his stolen base rates have to improve. He does not always get good jumps on the bases and hasn’t figured out how to read pitchers and what counts and pitches to run on yet; eventually, he will be able to steal 45-50 bases. Has ability to hit in the Nos. 1, 2, or 3 slots in the lineup, with potential to someday score 100, drive in 100, hit 25 and steal 45 with an OPS in the. 860 range.

Defense: He has the potential to be one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. He has great range, but still needs to improve his consistency with angles and reads off the bat. However, because of his above-average instincts and makeup, he should become a Gold Glove center fielder who has the ability to take away significant runs from opponents in the gaps. I love his energy and presence on the diamond.

Summary: He’s a five-tool athlete with the potential to be special, and he has the ability to make adjustments. He possesses All Star and Gold Glove potential with great leadership qualities and an excellent makeup. The Pirates should try to sign him to a long-term, five- to seven-year contract with the intent of buying him out of at least two years of free agency.



McCutchen is a future All-Star, Gold Glove and Silver Slugger as a center fielder. I look forward to the Pirates’ news conference announcing a long-term deal with him. It will be good for baseball, the Pirates and the McCutchen family.

Thanks for reading and as always I appreciate your comments and feedback. Follow me on Twitter @JimBowdenESPNxm and feel free to send me ideas for future blog posts.

OK, let’s set the ground rules:

1. Nobody on the Yankees, Red Sox or Phillies can be underrated. (Sorry, Carlos Ruiz.)

2. Nobody who has won an MVP Award can be underrated … even if he’s Canadian. (That’s you, Joey Votto.)

3. Nobody who plays for the Dodgers, dated Rihanna and is currently hitting .444 can be underrated. (Nice start, Matt Kemp.)

With some helpful suggestions via Twitter, here’s my all-underrated team for 2011. We’ll revisit later in the season and see how these guys are doing or if they've graced any magazine covers.

C -- Brian McCann, Braves. Can a five-time All-Star be underrated? I think so, if only because he’s never started in one of those games. Sure, us baseball seamheads know how good he’s been the past half decade, but since 2006 he has more RBIs than Victor Martinez or Joe Mauer, more home runs than Mauer and Yadier Molina combined and a higher OPS than Martinez.

1B -- Daric Barton, A’s. The new Mike Hargrove, except with better defense and fewer rain delays.

2B -- Orlando Hudson, Padres. No obvious candidate here, but Hudson is a solid fielder (four-time Gold Glover) with a decent stick (although he slipped a bit last season). Yet nobody likes him too much: he’s with his fourth team in four seasons.

3B -- Casey McGehee, Brewers. He was such a non-prospect with the Cubs that they waived him after a short nine-game stint in the majors in 2008. The Brewers have enjoyed the productivity of the free talent, as he’s hit .290/.344/.470 with the Brewers.

SS -- Cliff Pennington, A’s. He’s off to a bad start, but was quietly decent in 2010 (yes, “quietly decent” qualifies as a good major league shortstop these days) when he played solid D and stole 29 bases.

OF -- Shin-Soo Choo, Indians. I think he’s our most underrated MVP. One of the best all-around players in the majors last season (second in the AL in Baseball-Reference WAR, eighth in FanGraphs WAR). And to think Cleveland stole him from Seattle for Ben Broussard.

OF -- Logan Morrison, Marlins. He’s only in his first full season, so maybe he hasn’t played enough to be underrated yet, but I predict he’ll remain underrated until he signs with the Yankees in 2017, at which time he’ll become overrated.

OF -- Jose Tabata/Andrew McCutchen, Pirates. Hey, I need a DH in case we get put in the American League.

P -- Shaun Marcum, Brewers. He went 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with the Blue Jays in 2008 and 2010, sandwiched around his DL stint in 2009. His trade to the Brewers isn’t going to improve his recognition factor.

P -- John Danks, White Sox. Durable, consistent lefty with 3.60 ERA since 2008.

P -- Jered Weaver, Angels. Got several nominations for Weaver. His great 2010 did get largely lost in the “Only one pitcher with a good season and lousy run support can get any media attention” campaign for Felix Hernandez. So far, his 2011 follow-up has been even better.

P -- Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers. Ignore the 30-31 career and appreciate a solid No. 3 or 4 starter with a 3.60 career ERA in his three-plus seasons.

Bullpen -- The San Diego Padres. Heath Bell, Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson would be terrific in any park.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

I think most of us know this by now: A 21-year-old rookie with the same batting statistics as a 25-year-old rookie will almost always go on to have a much longer, productive career than the 25-year-old. Likewise, we assume a 23-year-old has more potential to improve than a 26-year-old, who has already reached the age that most players peak.

Because of this, Jay Bruce is a popular breakout candidate for 2011. He was 23 years old last season, has three major league seasons under his belt, has the prospect pedigree, and just feels like a guy ready to take one final leap to stardom. I'm on that bandwagon: I do a feel a monster season coming on for Cincinnati’s 24-year-old right fielder.

Even though the Reds won the NL Central, Bruce's 2010 campaign (.281/.353/.493, 25 home runs, great defense that Baseball Prospectus rated as the best in the majors for any outfielder) fell under the radar for several reasons:

(A) He hadn’t been very good in 2009, when he hit just .223 and then suffered a broken wrist;

(B) He got off to a slow start (.266/.339/.446 with 36 RBIs in the first half);

(C) Joey Votto was, you know, getting a lot of attention.

In the second half everything clicked, perhaps in part because Bruce's wrist was 100 percent. In 210 plate appearances, he hit .306/.376/.575 with 15 home runs. You can do the math and triple those numbers to approximate a full season of PAs and understand why some believe Bruce could hit 35 homers, score close to 100 runs and drive in 100-plus. Factor in that he’s still young, has big-time tools (he was once Baseball America’s No. 1 overall prospect), is more than a year removed from the broken wrist and showed a small spike in his walk rate, and he looks like a player who will improve.

That’s my belief; I think he’s a good bet for fantasy players and a good bet to make Reds fans happier than a basset hound running on a beach. But -- yes, there is a "but" here -- there’s something else in play. Even though the axiom is that young players improve and that hitters generally peak at around 26 to 28, it’s possible that Bruce has already reached his peak ability. Just because he’s 23 and has areas that he could improve doesn’t mean he will improve.

I checked out the 20 best 23-year-old hitters over the past 10 seasons (minimum 502 plate appearances, using OPS+ from Baseball-Reference.com). Bruce ranks 12th on that list with the 127 OPS+ he registered in 2010. The guys on this were already good hitters at 23, so we’re asking: How much better do they get?

The answer, at least with this group: Not much. Hitters ranging from Albert Pujols to Miguel Cabrera to Joe Mauer to David Wright to Nick Markakis were essentially fully developed hitters by 23.

Here’s the chart:



This isn’t to suggest all 23-year-olds won’t improve (such as Carlos Gonzalez making a big leap last season at 24); it’s a possible indicator that if you’re talented enough to reach the majors at 21 like most of these guys and already an excellent hitter by 23, you may not improve much more. Bruce has shown steady progress since his debut in 2008, but he also had a high .334 average on balls in play last year. It's possible he'll regress back to his .299 career average. It's why Baseball Prospectus projects Bruce to essentially repeat his 2010 numbers: .269/.339/.482.

I'll still hold out for a leap -- more walks, fewer strikeouts, 30-plus homers -- and fans of Colby Rasmus and Andrew McCutchen are surely expecting a similar leap. Maybe the wrist injury did hold him back early in 2010, but it’s possible Bruce will settle in as a very good player and potential Gold Glover, albeit not quite a perennial All-Star type.

Final note: It's possible, of course, that PED usage may have some unknown influence on the above results. I'll do a future post to look at a wider swath of good 23-year-old hitters going back more years.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.