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SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I gathered for Monday’s Baseball Today podcast with our big top-10 lists of best teams and much more!

1. Seattle Mariners announcer Dave Sims talked about the Mariners, whether Ichiro will be in a Mariners uniform next season, Jesus Montero, cheering for the home team, the many young players on the horizon and ... hats.

2. Power Rankings day! Dave, Mark Simon and I each submitted our lists, with some similarities but alas, not all division leaders made it. And which NL team is best?

3. How do you pitch to Texas Rangers superstar Josh Hamilton? And how good are the Rangers? We discuss.

4. What has Detroit Tigers lefty Drew Smyly done that hadn’t been done ... ever?

5. We take a closer look at Monday’s schedule, from ESPN’s Cubs-Cardinals tilt to an important series for last season’s NL West champs!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast and come right back with us Tuesday for me and Keith Law!

First base: Braun bashes. I was actually thinking about Ryan Braun this afternoon. With Prince Fielder departed for greener pastures, you heard a lot of stuff in the offseason like "Braun won't get anything to hit" or "he'll get pitched around." After all, with Fielder hitting behind Braun last season, the NL MVP received just two intentional walks. Well, entering Monday's night game in San Diego, Braun was hitting .263/.322/.500. Not bad, but certainly not MVP numbers. What's interesting is that his strike rate was way up (24.4 percent from 14.8 percent) and his walk rate was down (6.7 percent from 9.2 percent).

The decreased walk rate indicates pitchers haven't been shying away from challenging him. On the other hand, the strikeout rate suggests maybe they have, only he's been chasing pitches out of the strike zone. So which is it? Actually, it's both. Before Monday, he'd seen basically the same percentage of strikes as last year -- 46.3 percent in 2012, 45.1 percent in 2011. Braun, however, had been swinging at more pitches out of the zone -- 29.9 percent in 2011, 34.4 percent in 2012. He was also swinging at 12 percent more pitches in the zone. Braun has never been a big walker, but this increased aggressiveness perhaps indicates a hitter trying to make too much happen without the big guy hitting behind him.

Anyway, the Padres challenged Braun on Monday and he didn't miss, becoming the first player to hit three home runs at spacious Petco Park, which opened in 2004. He homered in the fourth inning off Joe Wieland, swatting a first-pitch high fastball over the fence in right-center. In the fifth, he tomahawked a 2-2 Wieland slider into the upper deck of the Western Supply Co. warehouse in left field. In the seventh, he hit a first-pitch breaking ball from Ernesto Frieri just over the fence in left-center, prompting a smile as he rounded the bases. He had a chance for a fourth home run, but settled for one-hop triple off the fence in right-center.

Suddenly, he's hitting .294/.347/.647.

The lesson for Braun: Be patiently aggressive, if that makes sense. Two of his home runs came on meaty first pitches. He said after the game he has been inconsistent with his swing. But consistency comes with patience and discipline as well. Quit chasing pitches out of the zone and maybe he'll start connecting more with those in the zone.

Second base: Andy Pettitte roughed up. Hold off on that belief that Andy Pettitte is a sure thing as an upgrade over Freddy Garcia or Phil Hughes in the Yankees' rotation. He gave up six runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings in a Class A start on Monday. On the positive side, he did strike out eight with no walks. "I feel good and it was another solid day," Pettitte said. "I felt the quality of pitches were as good as I've had in any of my starts up to now, and I was able to hold my velocity throughout. I feel like I'm ready to help the team." While Pettitte says he's ready, the Yankees are likely to give him two more minor league starts.

Third base: Pedro power. Pedro Alvarez still has an ugly .203 batting average and an awful 23/3 SO/BB ratio, but the once-heralded Pirates prospect is at least starting to show something. He hit his fifth home run of the season in the Pirates' 9-3 win over the Braves -- Pittsburgh's first game with more than five runs all month. Over his past eight games, he's hitting .345 with three home runs and four doubles. Hey, it's start. Ten days ago he was batting .067.

Home plate: Tweet of the day. We salute Mr. Braun:

That's why baseball is the greatest game there is. A routine Monday night & there's suddenly a surprise: #Brewers Ryan Braun 3 HR, 6 RBI.

— Steve Berthiaume (@SBerthiaumeESPN) May 1, 2012

On Thursday's Baseball Today podcast , Keith Law and I discuss both serious (depression) and non-serious (Bobby Valentine) issues. You’ll never forget which hand Liam Hendriks throws with after listening to our show.

1. Valentine’s lineup gaffe Wednesday might seem funny, but isn’t it somewhat embarrassing for the Red Sox organization?

2. The Yankees lose Michael Pineda for the season but an older guy is on the comeback trail.

3. Keith openly discusses his battles with depression and what Giants first baseman Aubrey Huff is going through.

4. It’s still only April, but at what point should we start to worry about struggling players like Albert Pujols, or take upstart teams like the Orioles and Nationals seriously?

5. Our emailers want to talk about two-sport starts (NFL draft is tonight!), sacrifice bunts and giving position players days off. Plus, we look closer at Thursday’s schedule.

So download and listen to Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast, and come back with us on Friday as me and Law preview the weekend!

TAMPA, Fla. -- Russell Martin knows what it is like to be framed. Sure, it’s his art, framing others, but every once in a while the tables turn. As the pitch comes toward the plate it looks borderline low. But then he glances back into the catcher’s glove. He sees a strike. The umpire does, too. Somehow, without flinching, the catcher grabbed the ball, brought it back into the strike zone and made the pitch look better -- so much so that a ball is now a strike.

As he tells this story, Martin talks with calmness -- a mixture of leadership, knowledge and initiative -- which leaves little room to doubt his ability as a catcher. Watch him closely as he interacts with teammates or manages the game from behind the plate, and one word comes to mind: trustworthy.

When Andy Pettitte walked out of the locker room for the first time in 2012, Martin stopped Pettitte and asked him where he was going.

Pettitte said he was on his way to throw his first bullpen. Martin, who joined the Yankees after Pettitte had retired and missed the 2011 season, told him, "I want to catch you."

Even though he was catching the 7:05 spring training game that evening, Martin grabbed his glove and spent some time catching and talking with Pettitte. They discussed how Pettitte likes to throw his pitches and what he likes to do on the mound. Martin later recalled being impressed with Pettitte’s command, and how serious he was with every pitch.

"It was great," Pettitte said. "I was glad he wanted to jump in there and catch me on my first 'pen."

The pitcher-catcher relationship is one of the most singular between teammates in sports. Unlike statistics such as batting average and slugging percentage, the impact a catcher has on a team’s pitching staff is hard to measure. The difficulty in qualifying a catcher’s influence on the entire pitching staff is a paradox: His impact on the team's ERA is unique to his relationship with each pitcher.

"The catcher is involved with everybody in the game, because he’s your field general," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. "He’s going to control obviously every starter, all your relievers, he’s supposed to have the game plan in place, defensively he can hold the runner, he can block balls in the dirt, he can steal strikes by framing properly. There are a lot of different things that you need your catcher to do, plus you want him to hit in our league."

* * * *

Talk about a catcher influencing a pitcher’s ERA and two words immediately come to mind: pitch selection. Most major league pitchers can recall how many times they shake a catcher off during the course of a game. Some even remember how many times over the course of a season. Pitchers know how in sync they are with their catcher.

"There’s not necessarily a pitch that’s better than the other in a certain situation," Martin says of calling the right pitches. "But a lot of it is just knowing your pitcher, and knowing the pitches your pitcher can execute."

Martin says taking in all the information from scouts, and from the pitching coach, goes into knowing the opposing hitters and being prepared to call a good game.

"Another thing that goes into catching ERA is your ability to receive -- getting a called strike here and there -- making a pitch look good that maybe was not necessarily a strike," Martin says. "For me, the true part of catching is being able to do that. I take a lot of pride in it."

Martin’s ability to frame pitches is recognized throughout baseball. Through extensive statistical research, Max Marchi of Baseball Prospectus recently pinpointed Martin as the second best catcher (behind Brian McCann) in the major leagues over the past four years in framing pitches -- receiving that borderline pitch and influencing umpires to call a strike.

Cashman said he "very much so" takes advanced statistics and research into consideration when evaluating the work of a catcher. With the wealth of data now available via the Pitch f/x system, researchers like Marchi are digging into catchers' abilities in framing pitches, blocking pitches in the dirt, controlling the running game and fielding bunts. A major reason the Rays signed career backup Jose Molina to become their starting catcher was data that showed he was one of the best at framing pitches.

That one strike can make all the difference in an at-bat. Take a 1-1 count, for example. In 2011, major league batters hit .340 after the count reached 2-1. But they hit just .180 after the count reached 1-2.

The marriage

Maybe the catcher doesn't matter to a great pitcher like Mariano Rivera. After all, it doesn't seem like he needs much help on the mound.

"I can [use] all the help that I can get, and the catcher is one of those guys," Rivera said. "I mean, if you have a guy who really takes his business back there [seriously], he can help you more than 50 percent."

"It’s trusting," Rivera says of his relationship with his catcher. "It’s trusting. It’s a marriage kind of like."

Rivera pauses at this thought as Alex Rodriguez walks by and gives him a part friendly hug/part pummeling. It is a display of longtime friends and teammates.

As if reminded how important it is to have faith in his teammates, Rivera continues. "Trust in each other," he says. "Knowing what he is going to call before he actually calls the pitch. So when you have that kind of relationship, that’s when the catcher is in the game; you guys are thinking alike, you don’t worry about nothing else."

Chris Carpenter, who pitched one of the most mentally demanding games in recent history -- the Cardinals' 1-0 victory against Roy Halladay and the Phillies in Game 5 of the 2011 Division Series -- described what the best catchers can do behind the plate. "They can take control of your mind," Carpenter said. "They can take control of what you want to do."

Executing the perfect pitch, the perfect swing, or the most accurate throw in baseball requires muscle memory, but when the mind is clouded with doubt and uncertainty, executing the right play at the right time becomes more difficult. Preventing that doubt from creeping into a pitcher's mind is the intangible element in the art of catching.

"The catcher is like a quarterback," Cashman said. "He has to be a leader. He has to be able to take charge, and that will show up in his play. Listen, if he’s not a leader, he’s not going to be able to get back there and do the job. It will manifest itself in performance and stuff like that. So, he has to carry himself with leadership abilities, much like the quarterback in the huddle."

The key for Martin in reaching the mental side of the pitcher is to understand there are different kinds of people. And here lies his secret, because, of course, it is easy to trust someone when they know you well enough to let you just be yourself.

"It’s about communicating and knowing who you have on the mound," Martin said. "That goes into knowing how your pitcher is made up mentally. What kind of person is he? Is he the kind of guy that you have to kind of ease your way with him? You know, like a softer approach. Or is he the kind of guy that you kind of have to grab by the collar?

"The key is to build a relationship with your pitcher where he is comfortable with what you are putting down. Obviously you’re just putting some suggestions down, but the mindset is to have them focus on pitch after pitch; not having to worry about strategizing while they are on the mound. You want to simplify everything for them, where they are just on the mound executing each pitch at a time."

But Martin is not just putting random signs or numbers down. It is a combination of skill, knowledge and trust.

In his first season with the Yankees, Martin started 118 games, and the staff's ERA decreased from 4.06 in 2010 to 3.73. Manager Joe Girardi expects Martin to "do a great job like he did last year. Obviously he has fewer pitchers to learn, because he’s been here for a year. But the expectation is to continue to build on what [he] did last year."

* * * *

On a beautiful, 80-degree March day in Florida, Martin takes a break from batting practice before the night game. His 5-foot-10 frame sits comfortably in the shade of the Yankees' dugout as he looks out at the empty field. He’s thoughtful, thinking about baseball and his role on the Yankees.

"My take on baseball and what defines you as a good player is offensively it’s your ability to produce or create runs, and then on defense it is your ability to take away runs, take away hits, take away extra-base hits, and you combine both of those, and that’s who you are as a player," Martin says. "That’s what you mean to your team."

There it is again, Martin’s calm demeanor, easygoing and accepting. You can see it in Martin’s eyes. You can see why the pitchers enjoy working with him.

"One pitch can change everything,” Martin says. "It starts with pitching. You can’t wind down the clock in baseball, you have to get 27 outs."

One pitch can change a game. It's why the Yankees have complete trust in their catcher.

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

To celebrate the Baseball Today podcast returning to daily shows (Monday through Friday), Mark Simon and I covered many fun topics to get the week started:

1. The Nationals did the right thing sending prospect Bryce Harper to Triple-A, but the surprising part of the news is his position change.

2. With the news from Phillies camp that Chase Utley could be out for a while, is the NL East race really up for grabs? We also talk about the Royals and Padres losing key players.

3. And then there are the Mets. Poor Mark. However, the news from Monday morning actually could be viewed as a positive.

4. In our Simon Says segment, Mark discusses Andy Pettitte’s slider and why it should make him effective again. Hey, the Yankees might really need him.

5. More emails than normal were read, featuring defense, Ozzie Guillen’s ejections and, of course, the all-important ridiculous question of the day.

So download and listen to a fun Monday edition of Baseball Today, the first of more than seven months of entertaining, informative baseball discussion!

Well, this season just got even more interesting with the announcement that Andy Pettitte will be returning to the New York Yankees.

The cynic would suggest that maybe the New York Yankees are worried about Michael Pineda's velocity. The reality is undoubtedly more simple: A Yankee legend wanted to return. The Yankees, of course, have nothing to lose except a $2.5 million investment.

But will this be an upgrade in the rotation? Obviously, once Pettitte is stretched out -- maybe mid-April -- he's in the rotation, which bumps somebody. Here are the ZiPS projections for the rotation candidates:

CC Sabathia: 3.55
Michael Pineda: 4.11
Hiroki Kuroda: 4.33
Ivan Nova: 4.44
Phil Hughes: 4.84
Freddy Garcia: 4.85

Pettite was very good with the Yankees in 2010, posting a 3.28 ERA over 21 starts. That was actually his best ERA in years; from 2006 through 2009 he posted a 4.24 ERA with the Astros and Yankees, a figure that made him only slightly better than a league-average pitcher. Pettitte was never really a great pitcher, was more of a consistent and durable winner. Pettitte's skill-set didn't suddenly improve in 2010; basically, he stranded more runners and had a better defense behind him, leading to fewer base hits. Here are his fielding independent ERAs each season:

2006: 4.13
2007: 3.87
2008: 3.71
2009: 4.15
2010: 3.85

So he was really the same guy all those years, with the only blip being the tender elbow that sidelined him from mid-July to mid-September in 2010. Pettitte returned and pitched well, including allowing just four runs over 14 playoff innings.

But will he be the same pitcher in 2012? Pettitte's now 40 years old. What happens to pitchers at that age? Over the past 25 years, there have been 19 40-year-old pitchers who pitched at least 150 innings.

• Fifteen of the 19 posted an ERA+ of league average or better. This makes sense; only good pitchers are still around at age 40 and old pitchers are going to be on a short leash if they're not any good. So if an old pitcher remains in the rotation it's because he's at least decent. I suspect this would be the case with Pettitte; he's either the same as he's always been or gets shelled over a few starts and hangs 'em up again.
• Collectively, the 19 pitchers posted a 3.76 ERA at age 40 ... and a 3.85 ERA at 38. They actually pitched more innings at age 40 -- 3788.1 to 3540.2. Of course, none of them missed an entire season at age 39. Again, this would seem to confirm the above statement: If Pettitte remains reasonably healthy, he should be the old Andy Pettitte.
• Eleven of the 19 had a better ERA+ at age 40 than age 38, although the margins were very close in some cases. The only pitcher with a significant drop from his age-38 ERA to age 40 was Orlando Hernandez, who posted a 3.30 ERA in 15 starts with the Yankees in 2004 but a 4.66 ERA in 29 starts with the Diamondbacks and Mets in 2006.

So we can assume Pettitte should be capable of posting an ERA around 4.00. This would likely be a minor upgrade over the team's current fifth starter, Hughes or Garcia. For all the hype around Hughes, he's had one good season in the rotation and it wasn't that dominant, with a 4.19 ERA in 2010. And even in that it was only two good months (April and May). His ERA over the final four months that year was 4.89. Certainly, Pineda could also be sent down to the minors if he continues to throw 90-92 mph instead of the 95-98 he fired with the Mariners a season ago.

In the end, it gives them more depth than anything. There's never anything wrong with that.

Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com reports that the Yankees have no interest in Wandy Rodriguez, even though the Astros left-hander reportedly cleared waivers.

The Yankees, of course, have plenty of starting options. Once Freddy Garcia returns from an injury rehab assignment, they'll have six starters. CC Sabathia is the only left-hander, which led me to wonder: Would a second left-hander improve the Yankees' chances of winning the World Series?

I simply looked at the past 20 World Series teams -- winners and losers -- to see how many of their postseason games were started by lefties.



Only three teams did not have a postseason game started by a left-hander -- two of Tony La Russa's Cardinals teams and the 2004 Red Sox. The 2007 Red Sox also had just one start from Jon Lester, Game 4 of their World Series sweep over the Rockies.

There isn't too much to take away from this study. Of the 301 games these teams played, 103 were started by left-handers (34 percent), about the same percentage you see during the regular season. Of course, 44 percent of those left-handed starts came from just three pitchers -- Andy Pettitte, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. The trend for lefties, however, has been increasing in recent seasons, with 59 percent of World Series teams' postseason games started by lefties over the past three years.

But that's a small sample size. I don't think you can read anything into that trend. The bigger question is if Rodriguez would be a better matchup for potential playoff opponents. The answer there: Not really. The Rangers have a .781 OPS against lefties, .779 against righties. The Tigers: .761 versus lefties, .750 versus righties. And the Red Sox: .803 against lefties, .802 against righties. Plus, considering that Rodriguez is more of a finesse lefty who changes speeds instead of a power lefty like those who have had success in recent postseasons, it makes sense for the Yankees to pass and live with what they have.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

At his peak, Johnny Bench was lethal at throwing out attempting basestealers, more than 40 percent every season from 1968 to 1978, twice peaking at 57 percent. Even more amazing is that since few guys even attempted to steal on Bench, that means only the very best stealers even tried.

But Bench was no James Shields, at least the 2011 version of Shields. The Tampa Bay right-hander allowed his first stolen base of the season the other night (to Kansas City's Eric Hosmer). That by itself isn't necessary unique -- since 1990, 27 pitchers have thrown at least 162 innings and allowed one stolen base in a season. Four have allowed zero -- and one of them was a right-hander (Chris Carpenter of the 2004 Cardinals; the other three were Jonathon Niese last season, Jarrod Washburn and Kenny Rogers).

What makes Shields' season pretty cool is that he's also picked off 10 guys. (I'm using data from Baseball-Reference.com). Throw in four caught stealings, and that makes baserunners 1-for-15 off Shields, if you add the caught stealings and pickoffs together.

Baseball-Reference has pickoff and pitcher stolen base data back to 1950. There have been 54-pitcher seasons with at least 10 pickoffs, but most of those are by left-handers. Knuckleballer Charlie Hough has the most by a right-hander with 14 in 1988, but he allowed 32 stolen bases that year.

Two guys famous for their pickoff moves were Terry Mulholland and Andy Pettitte. Indeed, Mulholland picked off 15 runners with the Phillies in 1992, while allowing just two steals in seven attempts. That's a CSPO (caught stealing/pickoff) score of minus-20. Mulholland never had more than seven pickoffs after that, mostly because runners just stood on first base; from 1992 until the rest of his career (more than 1,900 innings), he allowed just 14 stolen bases. Pettitte semi-balk move was questioned many times during his career and he picked off 101 runners, but didn't completely shut down the running game as he allowed 176 stolen bases (against 86 caught stealings).

One of the best recent CSPO seasons was Chris Capuano of the 2005 Brewers, when he had 12 pickoffs and basestealers were 2-for-11 off him, a CSPO score of minus-21.

From what I can gather, the best CSPO belongs to Jerry Garvin, a rookie left-hander for the expansion 1977 Blue Jays. He picked off 23 guys -- the record, at least since 1950 -- and basestealers went 10-for-29, giving him a CSPO score of minus-32. That number will hard to beat!

Garvin had a pretty good rookie season, going 10-18 on a terrible team but with a league-average 4.19 ERA and 12 complete games, all at age 21. He was named the left-handed pitcher on the Topps All-Rookie team.

Garvin wasn't overpowering and relied on a forkball as a rookie, while unsuccessfully trying to develop a slider or curve. The Toronto Glove and Mail wrote in 1978 that he was looking to "try a cut fastball this spring. For the southpaw Garvin, the pitch would move down and away from a left handed hitter." (Interesting mention of the cut fastball, showing it's not a recent development.)

The cut fastball didn't take and Garvin battled elbow injuries the rest of his career. Perhaps the 244 innings as a rookie had taken its toll. As he attempted to rebound in 1980, he talked about his pickoff move in another Globe and Mail story. "The move was so smooth that he frequently caught runners flat-footed, but so technically correct that rival managers never
complained," wrote Neil Campbell. "'It's a matter of timing,' said Garvin, who returned home to Salt Lake City to be with his family after his six weeks in Venezuela. 'My pickoff move takes work and practice, and I haven't been pitching enough to get it down pat.'"

Scrolling through the Lexis database, it's funny seeing the random mentions of Garvin in the Toronto newspaper. He's almost always referred to as the left-hander with the high leg kick and great pickoff off.

As for Shields, he's clearly taken his pickoff game to a new level this year, after allowing 10 steals last year with three pickoffs. Here's a story from May on Shields talking about his unusual move, with video highlight of one of his pickoffs.

While the '68 Dodgers have the greatest draft haul ever, they aren't the only team to stock up in a single draft. Not including drafts that resulted in one superstar (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, etc.), here are six other great drafts.

Detroit Tigers, 1976: I believe no team has ever selected two future Hall of Famers in one draft (even if a player went unsigned). The Tigers have a chance, with second-rounder Alan Trammell and fifth-rounder Jack Morris both future Veterans Committee candidates if the writers don't elect them. But the draft didn't end there: the Tigers also got Steve Kemp (130 career home runs) and Dan Petry (125 wins). Plus, get this: They drafted Ozzie Smith in the seventh round but didn't sign him.

Kansas City A's, 1965: In the first round, the A's built the foundation for their three World Series champions of the '70s by selecting Arizona State teammates Rick Monday (first overall pick) and Sal Bando (sixth round) and Gene Tenace (20th round). Monday would later be flipped to the Cubs for Ken Holtzman, who joined Catfish Hunter and Vida Blue in the rotation. (Reggie Jackson and Blue were drafted in 1966 and '67. Hunter, Joe Rudi and Rollie Fingers were all signed in 1964 in the pre-draft era.)

San Francisco Giants, 1968: The Giants drafted an All-Star outfield in one draft: Garry Maddox and George Foster in the January regular phase, and then Gary Matthews with their first pick in June. Trouble is: They didn't know what to do with all these guys. Foster was traded to the Reds in 1971 for Frank Duffy and Vern Geishert, and there's a reason you haven't heard of those two. Foster ended up winning an MVP Award and leading the NL three seasons in a row in RBIs.

When Maddox -- "Two-thirds of the Earth is covered by water, the other one-third is covered by Garry Maddox" -- reached the majors in 1972, the Giants already had Bobby Bonds and Ken Henderson (a good player) plus an aging Willie Mays and rookie Dave Kingman, who couldn't really play anywhere so they plunked him in left field sometimes. Anyway, they cleared space by trading Mays to the Mets but would eventually trade Maddox a few years later to the Phillies for Willie Montanez. For some reason, teams kept trading for Montanez. (He'd hit 30 home runs as a rookie, but only reached 20 one other time and never walked.) Anyway, the Giants quickly realized Montanez wasn't that good and would trade him to the Braves for Darrell Evans, who was at least a productive player.

Matthews played four seasons for the Giants before signing with the Braves as a free agent. The Giants of the '70s and '80s were churning out ballplayers left and right but kept doing stupid things like trading Maddox for Montanez or Bob Knepper for Enos Cabell or Jack Clark for a pile of landfill or playing Johnnie LeMaster at shortstop year and they never won anything.

Boston Red Sox, 1976: Bruce Hurst was the team's first-rounder in June while Wade Boggs lasted until the seventh. John Tudor came in the January secondary phase. Mike Smithson would win 76 major league games.

New York Mets, 1982: All told, the Mets would draft 17 players who would reach the major leagues, including Dwight Gooden, Roger McDowell and Randy Myers. Unsigned, however: eighth-round pick Rafael Palmeiro. (The year before, the Mets had drafted but failed to sign Roger Clemens out of junior college.)

New York Yankees, 1990: First-rounder Carl Everett never played for the Yankees as he was lost to the Marlins in the expansion draft, but two late-rounders turned out pretty well: Andy Pettitte (22nd round) and Jorge Posada (24th). They also signed a skinny 20-year-old Panamanian pitcher as an amateur free agent that year: You've probably heard of him ... Mariano Rivera.

Honorable mention: Montreal Expos, 1977 (Tim Rainers, Bill Gullickson, Scott Sanderson); Cincinnati Reds, 1983 (Chris Sabo, Rob Dibble, Kurt Stillwell, Jeff Montgomery, Joe Oliver, Lenny Harris); Minnesota Twins, 1989 (Chuck Knoblauch, Denny Neagle, Scott Erickson, Marty Cordova, Mike Trombley); Boston Red Sox, 1989 (Mo Vaughn, Jeff Bagwell, Paul Quantrill). As for more recent drafts, the Red Sox selected Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz and Jed Lowrie in 2005; and the Braves' 2007 draft could be a good one: Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel (and Brandon Belt went unsigned).

Anyway, I'm sure I missed some good drafts in there. Add to the list if I did!

From 1979 through 2006, the Houston Astros were one of baseball's best and most consistent franchises. They suffered just six losing seasons and made the playoffs nine times. They finally reached their first World Series in 2005, but that was primarily an aging club at the end of a long run of success. Jeff Bagwell was done, Craig Biggio and Roger Clemens were old, Andy Pettitte would return to the Yankees and Morgan Ensberg never repeated his big season.

And the talent dried up. The Astros are on their way to their fourth losing season in five years and will likely lose more than 90 games for the first time since 1991. As Buster Olney wrote in his blog today, with Drayton McLane selling the team to Jim Crane, the new ownership group knows it has to pay more attention to player development.

1. A string of bad drafts. Former scouting director David Lakey nailed his first two first-round picks, drafting Lance Berkman in 1997 and Brad Lidge in 1998, but the Astros haven't drafted a first-rounder since who has developed into a solid major leaguer. (Time will tell, of course, on recent picks like Jordan Lyles and Delino DeShields Jr.) The Astros only had one top-10 pick from 1993 through 2007 (Chris Burke, 10th overall in 2001), which doesn't help, of course. The team also forfeited its first-round picks in 2003 (for signing Jeff Kent), 2004 (for signing Andy Pettitte) and 2007 (for signing Carlos Lee). It's hard to fault the Kent and Pettitte signings, but Lee has been both expensive and now unproductive.

Every team misfires in the draft but the Astros have had a long string of misfires. In 2005, under scouting director Paul Ricciarini, they were picking 24th and selected pitcher Brian Bogusevic, who was later converted to an outfielder. Matt Garza was the next pick and Colby Rasmus went later in the round. With the 23rd pick in 2006 they took high school catcher Max Sapp, who hit .224 in three seasons in the minors and then developed meningitis, which ended his career. Even before contracting meningitis, the Astros had shown their doubts about his future big-league status, drafting catcher Jason Castro in the first round in 2008. Two picks after Sapp, the Angels selected another high school catcher, Hank Conger, now playing well as a rookie. But the big blows were a string of drafts from 2000 onward that produced few big leaguers -- guys who should be in their primes right now.

2. McLane refused to spend on the draft, sticking to the MLB recommended slot bonuses. For example, the team failed to sign third-round pick Drew Stubbs in 2003; he later became a first-rounder of the Reds. Castro, drafted 10th overall in 2008, was taken one pick before Justin Smoak, whom most scouts rated much higher. Smoak signed for a bonus $1.5 million more than Castro.

McLane always operated the franchise like a mid-market team, instead of one playing in the sixth-largest metro market in the U.S. Under McLane, the Astros ranked in the top 10 in payroll in the majors just twice -- sixth in 2006 and eighth in 2009. Maybe there isn't quite enough fan interest in Houston to allow the Astros to play with the big boys -- even during their great run in the late '90s and early '00s, they reached a peak attendance level of fifth in the NL.

3. The Venezuelan pipeline shut down. Whether through deploying fewer resources, not spending money or just signing the wrong guys, a once fruitful operation in Venezuela -- arguably the best in the majors -- has returned little talent in recent years. Among the players Houston signed out of Venezuela: Richard Hidalgo, Bobby Abreu (although he was lost in the expansion draft), Carlos Guillen, Johan Santana (lost in the Rule 5 draft), Freddy Garcia and Melvin Mora.

4. Bad deals. The Carlos Lee -- six years for $100 million in 2007 -- was a bad deal at the time, an overrated RBI guy with mediocre OBPs who played poor defense. As predicted, it's become an albatross and he'll still be making $18.5 million in 2012. The team drafted Ben Zobrist and later traded him to Tampa Bay for Aubrey Huff. That's 68 games of Huff before he left as a free agent.

Crane will take over officially sometime this summer. He's got a lot of work ahead of him.

Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot. And follow the Astros blog here.

We're back with the much-anticipated final installment of my 50 greatest Yankees of all time. Here's ESPNNewYork's top 50 and photo gallery and here are the first two parts of my series, Nos. 50 through 31 and 30 through 16. The panel's ranking is in parenthesis.

15. Don Mattingly, 1B (11)
One of the prettiest swings you'll ever see. He was really only a great player for six seasons, before his back started to go, and just kind of hung around for six years after that. Is he more beloved than Jeter among Yankees fans?

14. Andy Pettitte, P (16)
Is he a Hall of Famer? The quick argument against him is that he finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA just three times. Bert Blyleven, who took 14 years to get inducted, finished in the top 10 on 10 occasions, including seven times in the top five. Jack Morris, similar to Pettitte in many regards, finished in the top 10 fives times and has struggled to get over the Hall of Fame hump. I think Pettitte faces the same obstacles, with 240 wins but a mediocre career ERA. Certainly, his 19 career postseason wins (more than any other pitcher) will give him a chance for election.

13. Thurman Munson, C (12)
When did the Yankees institute their no facial hair policy? One of the iconic baseball images of my youth was Munson's mustache and bushy sideburns. He looked tough and gritty and pugnacious, and by all accounts that's exactly what he was. Would he have made the Hall of Fame if he hadn't died? I'm not so sure. His bat had pretty much dried up his final seasons, with a .373 slugging percentage in 1978 and .374 in 1979. He never did walk much, so his on-base percentage was tied to his batting average. He was still a long ways from 2,000 hits and unlikely to make any more All-Star teams (he made seven).

12. Bernie Williams, OF (19)
Yankee most valuable players, according to Baseball-Reference's WAR (wins above replacement) statistic:

1995: Bernie Williams, 6.0
1996: Mariano Rivera, 5.4; Bernie Williams, 4.8
1997: Andy Pettitte, 7.6; David Cone, 6.7; Bernie Williams, 6.4
1998: Derek Jeter, 7.8; Bernie Williams, 6.1
1999: Derek Jeter, 8.0; Bernie Williams, 5.0
2000: Jorge Posada, 5.7; Bernie Williams, 5.0
2001: Mike Mussina, 6.5; Roger Clemens, 5.4; Bernie Williams, 4.0
2002: Jason Giambi, 7.3; Alfonso Soriano, 4.7; Bernie Williams, 4.4

Williams wasn’t usually the best player on the team, but during his eight-year peak (he topped .300 each season), he was always one of the three most valuable on the team. The advanced fielding metrics actually rate him as a poor center fielder, although he looked smooth out there to me, other than his weak throwing arm (he won four Gold Gloves). He performed well in the postseason (.275/.371/.480) and delivered as many critical playoff hits as Derek Jeter, just without as much fanfare or adoration from the media.

11. Red Ruffing, P (9)
Ruffing began his career with the Red Sox and went 39-96 with their awful teams of the 1920s. Traded to the Yankees for backup outfielder Cedric Durst and $50,000 in 1930, Ruffing apparently changed his motion slightly, became a Hall of Famer by going 231-124 with the Yankees and winning 20 games each season from 1936-39, when the Yankees won four straight World Series. He relied primarily on his fastball and a slider that the "Neyer/James Guide to Pitching" reports that "there's an abundance of evidence suggesting that he was among the first to throw a good one."

10. Bill Dickey, C (10)
One of the best-hitting catchers of all time, Dickey fashioned a .313/.382/.486 career line, impressive even for the high-octane offense of the 1930s. Later, he helped mentor Yogi Berra, who always gave credit to Dickey for helping him develop his catching skills.

9. Mariano Rivera, P (5)
He might have been pretty good if he had ever developed a second pitch.

8. Jorge Posada, C (21)
Posada ahead of Rivera? It's a close call, but I'll take the great-hitting catcher with solid defense (Posada was never great at blocking pitches but his arm was average or slightly above for most of his career) over the legendary closer. Their career value is similar: 52.9 WAR for Rivera, 46.0 for Posada. But generally speaking, the closer position is overrated; Rivera's most valuable season was actually 1996, when he served as John Wetteland's setup guy and pitched 107 innings. It's perhaps instructive that the season Posada missed with injury (2008) was the one season the Yankees didn't make the playoffs since the two joined the club.

7. Whitey Ford, P (8)
Ford went 236-106 with the Yankees, but won 20 games just twice -- 25 in 1961 and 24 in 1963. That was primarily because Casey Stengel never believed in Ford's durability (he was 5-foot-10), so didn't work him hard. His career high in starts under Stengel was 33 and he topped 230 innings just once. After Stengel was fired following the 1960 season, Ford averaged 37 starts and 260 innings over the next five seasons. His World Series record was excellent as well -- 10-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 22 starts.

6. Joe DiMaggio, OF (3)
DiMaggio played 13 seasons in the majors, appeared in 10 World Series and won nine of them. Perhaps no player in baseball history has ever been so identified as a "winner" as DiMaggio. So why rank DiMaggio only sixth? I'll admit: Something about him just rubs me the wrong way. He frequently held out, battled injuries and he had a lot of great teammates who chipped in with the winning. Of course, he was a devastating hitter who was severely penalized by the huge dimensions in left-center at Yankee Stadium when he played (he hit 213 home runs on the road in his career, 148 at home). His fielding was probably more average than great and nobody stole bases in his day (he had 30 career steals).

5. Derek Jeter, SS (7)
An amazingly consistent and durable player (his only injury came in 2003), Jeter is less than 300 runs away from passing Babe Ruth for the most runs scored in Yankees history. B-R actually ranks Jeter as the most valuable offensive player in the American League in 1999 and 2006, and that's why I gave him the nod over DiMaggio: A great-hitting shortstop who has played nearly every game for 16-plus seasons is more difficult to find than a great center fielder.

4. Yogi Berra, C (6)
Behind the "Yogisms" caricature, it's easy to forget how great he was: A three-time MVP who during his 1950-56 peak caught an average of 142 games per season, hitting .295/.364/.502 with 27 homers and 108 RBIs per season. Yogi's power was underrated: he finished in the top 10 in the AL in homers every season from 1949 through 1957. Casey Stengel loved to fiddle with his lineups, platoon and move players around, but the one constant he had was Yogi behind the plate.

3. Lou Gehrig, 1B (2)
It's often portrayed that Yankee scout Paul Krichell "discovered" Gehrig, a testament to the Yankees digging in haystacks to find their Hall of Famers. Sounds good, but it's not accurate. Gehrig was quite well known by the time the Yankees signed him. As a high school senior, Gehrig hit a grand slam at Wrigley Field, as his School of Commerce team defeated Lane Tech of Chicago. "Gherrig, a 17-year-old boy, who played first base for the easterners and who came here touted as the 'Babe' Ruth of the high schools of New York, lived up to his reputation by driving the ball over the right field wall of Cubs park for a home run with the bases filled," intoned one paper. His exploits at Columbia were well covered by the New York papers. A 1937 AP report says Gehrig was to make $37,000, tops in the majors. The story also indicates the Yankees would have by far the highest payroll, around $368,000 for the "hired hands." Of course, that salary barely pushed Gehrig above his own manager's $35,000 salary.

2. Mickey Mantle, OF (4)
You often read or hear things like, "Just imagine how good Mickey Mantle would have been if he hadn’t hurt his knee or drank so much." That might be true, but it also undersells Mantle's dominance. He won three MVP awards and finished second in the voting three other times. Baseball-Reference has Mantle as the AL's best player six times (and its best offensive player nine times). Since 1950, according to B-R, 13 AL players have compiled 10 or more WAR in one season. Mantle's 1956 season ranks No. 1, his 1957 season No. 2 and his 1961 season (when Roger Maris won the MVP award) No. 4. You can make an argument that his 1956 Triple Crown season is the greatest season ever. He hit .353/.464/.705, played a good center field, ran the bases and hit .444 with runners in scoring position. With 52 home runs, he hit 20 more than any other AL hitter, was one of six to drive in 100 runs (he drove in 130) and one of three to score 100 (132).

1. Babe Ruth, OF (1)
Babe Ruth won only one MVP award in his career, but that of course is misleading. For much of his career there was either (A) no award given, or (B) he was ineligible (for a short time, previous winners couldn't win again). So how many would he have won? And by that, I don’t mean how many years was he the best player in the American League (12, according to Baseball-Reference, including once as a pitcher), but how many times would he have likely been voted the winner, keeping in mind voters (by today's standards, at least) are usually reluctant to give it to the same player year after year and players on pennant winners have an advantage. Ruth probably would have won in 1916 (as a pitcher with the Red Sox), 1920, 1921, 1923 (the year he actually won), 1926 and 1928. I have him finishing second in 1919 (to Eddie Cicotte, who won 29 games for the pennant-winning White Sox), 1924 (to Walter Johnson, who led the Senators to the pennant) and 1927 (to Gehrig).

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

OK, I'll come right out and say it: I don't like the Yankees.

That's probably a dangerous statement to utter on this platform, but hopefully the hordes of pinstripe-faithful will understand. As a Twins fan, the Yankees have been the bane of my existence over the past decade. In Ron Gardenhire's nine years at the helm, Minnesota has lost 54 of 72 regular-season contests against New York. They've also been bumped from the playoffs by the Yankees four times during that span (always in the first round, always without much of a fight).

With this being the case, it seems odd that I find myself in position to talk Yankees fans down off the ledge. But discontent has been building up in the Bronx this offseason, and it hit an apex Thursday when the surprising (at least to me) news came down that Andy Pettitte plans on calling it quits.

Yes, the Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee. Yes, their biggest move of the offseason came in the form of a signing that for most clubs would be spectacularly bad. And losing Pettitte hurts. But rest easy, Gotham.

The Yankees will be fine.

For the most part, this is the same team that won 95 games in the treacherous AL East and swept a 94-win Twins team out of the playoffs last year.

It's true Pettitte is gone (at least for now), but injuries wiped out a sizable portion of his 2010 season, and they were fine.

Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez might be getting older, but they still rank among the best in the league at their positions. Mark Teixeira is due for a rebound. Robinson Cano will be a trendy pick for MVP among preseason prognosticators.

The Yankees undoubtedly overpaid for Rafael Soriano. It's not hard to see why GM Brian Cashman, a savvy baseball mind, cringed at giving up two draft picks and $35 million for a setup man, whose impact will optimistically shake out to a couple extra wins this year.

But the money and the draft picks don't really matter for New York. They'll keep spending in free agency and above slot in the draft. Overpaying Soriano doesn't matter all that much, and doesn't change the fact that he'll likely combine with Mariano Rivera to form the most dominant back-end in baseball.

And of course, there's the trade deadline. The Yankees will have the cash and prospects to wheel-and-deal come July; teams like the Rangers, Phillies and Brewers have benefited hugely from adding a pitcher at the deadline in recent years.

If you're going to sit an offseason out, the Yankees picked the right one. The market was not at all buyer-friendly this winter, and the team carries over enough talent from last year's successful group that they can feel comfortable moving forward without a bunch of major additions.

They'll be fine.

Much to my chagrin.

-- Nick Nelson writes Nick’s Twins blog, a blog about the Minnesota Twins.

After explaining why the Lance Berkman deal can't be announced until tomorrow, Joel Sherman explains that Berkman hardly fits a crying need for the Yankees ...

However, his price both in dollars and/or prospects has fallen so low that the Yankees moved to acquire the switch-hitter.

--snip--

When it comes to position players, the Yankees actually preferred either a supplemental type who either plays the corner infield (to rest Alex Rodriguez on occasion) or bats righty and plays the corner outfield (to put Curtis Granderson on the bench against most lefties). Berkman is neither of these.

--snip--

Berkman would essentially fill the role the Yankees had envisioned for Nick Johnson, regular DH and occasional fill-in first baseman for Mark Teixeira. He is a veteran bat with plenty of playoff experience and is pals with Andy Pettitte.

Berkman is having his worst season at .240 with 13 homers and 49 RBIs. But in his past 18 games, Berkman has hit .274 with six homers in 64 at-bats. He also is the kind of patient hitter the Yankees always like, and they would be hoping that the intensity of a championship hunt would energize him for a strong finish.This is purely a "because we can" move. The Yankees already lead the American League in scoring, Marcus Thames has been solid as their righty-hitting DH, and there's no shortage of veterans who can use the occasional rest. Particularly with a playoff spot almost locked up already.

But the Yankees have more loose money than a Saudi prince, and a Berkman/Thames platoon will look pretty good in October (the switch-hitting Berkman's been significantly better in his career against righties than lefties). So why not?

My friend Allen Barra on some surprising projections for a quartet of aging Bombers:

If Nate Silver is correct, both the Democratic Party and the New York Yankees might be headed for tough times this fall. The ace political pollster/baseball analyst projects the numbers for 1,600 major league ballplayers in the current Baseball Prospectus 2010, and things don't look good for the Yankees' "Core Four." Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera average out at 38 years of age, and no team in the major leagues is anywhere near as dependent on four aging players as the Yankees are.

Based on the study of hundreds of players in their declining years, Silver projects these slides for the Yanks' elders in 2010:

Jeter from a 2009 batting average of .334 to .286 this year, a drop in home runs from 18 to 11, and in stolen bases from 30 to 10. Posada from a .285 BA to .263, home runs from 22 to 12. Pettitte from 14-8 and an ERA of 4.06 to 10-11 and 4.70. Scariest of all, Rivera from 44 saves to 22, and an ERA that moves from 1.76 to 3.53.

Actually, Nate Silver's not running Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections anymore; he's too busy with other things. I'm sure PECOTA's new masters are plenty bright, but I simply don't believe these particular numbers.

It's not easy for me to write that sentence, because 1) I like the people at Baseball Prospectus, and 2) for a long time I've been railing against "analysts" who rail against a system simply because they don't like the output.

But I'm not railing against the system. I don't know enough about the guts of PECOTA to rail against it. Instead I'll just say that I don't believe that Jeter is going to steal 10 bases this season, and that I don't believe Mariano Rivera will save only 22 games. I will say, too, that if your system says those things, it's probably worth checking under the hood just in case one of the belts is running a little loose.