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Matt Cain has been flummoxing statheads almost as long as he has been flummoxing opposing hitters. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound right-hander has quietly become one of baseball's premier pitchers since earning a regular spot in the San Francisco Giants' rotation in 2006, despite a career xFIP (4.26) nearly a full run higher than his career ERA (3.37).

Utilizing a typical starting pitcher's tool chest -- fastball, slider, changeup, curve -- Cain has posted an ERA between 2.88 and 3.14 in each of the past three seasons, but stood in the background as teammate and 2008-09 back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum shone in the spotlight. Sabermetricians labeled Cain a fluke, bound to regress to a 4.50 ERA that was more in line with his xFIP.

In fact, many balked when the Giants awarded Cain a six-year, $127.5 million contract extension nearly two weeks ago. Cain has never finished higher than eighth in Cy Young balloting and never posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio in excess of 3-1. How could he possibly be worth that much money?

Cain showed exactly how in this afternoon's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He brought a perfect game into the sixth inning, allowing his first hit with two out in the frame to opposing starter James McDonald on his way to a 5-0 Giants victory. The home crowd in San Francisco gave him a lengthy and appreciative standing ovation, perhaps a penance for worrying after his first start, in which the Arizona Diamondbacks tagged him for five runs over six innings.

While he is not known for his ability to strike batters out on a frequent basis, Cain has posted an average strikeout rate (a shade under 20 percent) over his career. Today, Cain struck out 11 Pirates, utilizing expert pitch sequencing. ESPN Stats & Information notes that eight of his 11 punchouts were on pitches out of the strike zone, and overall, Pirates hitters chased at 58 percent of pitches out of the zone.

An added bonus to being so unpredictable is weak contact. Since 2006, among starters with at least 1,000 innings pitched, Cain has the fourth-highest infield fly ball rate at 12.6 percent, trailing Ted Lilly (13.8), Jered Weaver (13.6), and Bronson Arroyo (12.7). As a result, Cain's career batting average on balls on play sits at .265, about 35 points below the average for pitchers and the point to which most pitchers regress. That low BABIP is the reason most expected him to regress, but he has proven he has an ability to limit hits on balls in play better than most pitchers, which is a rare skill.

If Cain had authored the 273rd no-hitter in baseball history, he certainly would have gained some recognition across the baseball world. But in reality, his resume is already impressive enough, and he has been everything the Giants had hoped for when they drafted him in the first round of the 2002 draft and, at 27 years old, there is plenty more still to come.

Bill Baer writes for Crashburn Alley and you can follow him on Twitter here.

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

Tim Marchman was wondering why the Diamondbacks are listening to offers for Justin Upton, and he's come up with a fairly compelling reason:

Here is a filthy secret about young stars: They don't generally improve. Baseball fans have it in their minds that a player will, at 27, be a better version of the player he was at 21. On average, that's true. This chart, for example, is a bit technical, but shows that the typical hitter will, at 27, be about 10 percent more valuable per plate appearance than he was when he was six years younger.

What defines a great player, though, is that he isn't anything like an average one. And Justin Upton is a great player, or close. Two years ago, when he was 21, he hit .300/.366/.532, good for an adjusted OPS of 129. In the last 30 years, just eight other hitters have done as well by that age: Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Ken Griffey Jr., Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson, Jason Heyward, Miguel Cabrera and... Tom Brunansky. That's five players who are or one day will be in the Hall of Fame, one who's on course to join them, a player who turned 21 in August, and... Tom Brunansky. Upton's prospects are obviously high.

--snip--

Take our other young stars as guides to what may be in store for the lucky owner of Upton's contract over the next five years. From ages 23 to 27, Rodriguez's adjusted OPS of 153 was actually lower than the 160 mark he posted at 20. Griffey, Raines and Henderson all hit basically the same at those ages as they did at 21, while Brunansky hit much worse. Only Pujols and Cabrera hit new levels.

None of this is of course any knock on these players. Once you're hitting like a Hall of Famer, there is no real improvement you can make, unless you're Albert Pujols and thus capable of hitting like Mickey Mantle rather than Hank Aaron. (Scoop: St. Louis has a good first baseman.) The point is just that you can't expect the kind of linear improvement from a historically talented player that you can from a merely excellent one. Baseball is hard, and going from great to greater is in many ways harder than going from good to great.

I'm a bit concerned by the sample size here, but I think the general point is useful: A player who's great at 21 or 22 just doesn't have much room for improvement. When Ted Williams hit .406, he was 22. When Al Kaline won his only batting title, he was 20. When Joe DiMaggio hit 46 home runs (his career high), he was 22. Three of Eddie Mathews' very best seasons came when he was 21, 22, and 23. When Boog Powell led the American League in slugging percentage, he was 22 and would never hit quite as well again.

Then again, it's not clear that Upton really belongs in this sort of company. His adjusted OPS (OPS+) at the age of 21 was not historically significant. The last 30 years, yes. But players don't reach the majors as early as they used to; hence, the small sample size. Aside from Upton's 2009, there have been 56 player-seasons including an OPS+ of 125 or higher for players 21 or younger.

A number of players account for more than one player-season: Kaline (2), Frank Robinson (2), Jimmie Foxx (2), Ken Griffey, Jr. (2), Mel Ott (3), Mickey Mantle (2), Rogers Hornsby (2), Sherry Magee (2), Ted Williams (2), and (of course) Ty Cobb (3).

Does Upton really belong in this company? His career OPS+ is 112. That's impressive for a player who just turned 23. But 112 for a 23-year-old outfielder ... There have been many, many players with that profile who did not become superstars.

Which leaves me, if anything, more pessimistic about Upton than Marchman is. I think that Upton will probably improve, and become a big star. But he's not a great player yet, and it's not obvious that he'll become great. If it were, the Diamondbacks probably wouldn't be shopping him at all.

Unlike me, Nick Piecoro's done some actual reporting:

The Diamondbacks are considering storing their baseballs in a humidor next season, and University of Illinois physics professor Alan Nathan wants them to proceed with caution."They ought to consider carefully what they're doing, that's for sure," he said.According to Nathan's research, a humidor might not just nudge the balance of power a little toward pitchers. It could vastly alter the landscape at one of baseball's most hitter-friendly environments.--snip--

Nathan said that when baseballs that had been at 30 percent relative humidity were stored for two weeks in a humidor at 50 percent, the balls' speed off the bat decreased by about 2.5 mph, which they say comes out to a 14 foot dropoff on a typical long fly ball.

"Our rough statistical estimate was that (14 feet) will decrease the number of home runs by about 25 percent," Nathan said.

As it turns out, that's exactly the reduction seen in home runs at Denver's Coors Field since they began using a humidor in 2002.

--snip--

Rybarczyk, like Nathan, hopes the Diamondbacks do their homework before determining what levels to set their humidor, assuming they get one. Coors Field's humidor is set at 70 degrees and 50 percent humidity, the specs Rawlings uses when making the balls.

I'm under the impression that the Diamondbacks don't have any choice in the matter. Major League Baseball simply won't allow teams to adjust humidor settings at a whim. Coors Field's humidor is set where it is because it's (supposedly) consistent with the manufacturing process. Do anything else, and you're open to charges of home-field manipulation. Allow a team to change the settings, and they'll go up and down depending on who's in town and who's pitching. Major League Baseball won't allow that, any more than it'll allow teams to move the outfield fences during the season.

Nathan says a humidor would cut home runs by 25 percent. Rybarczyk, looking at nearly five years' worth of home runs (2006-2010), estimates a humidor would have cut the homers by 38 percent.

The Diamondbacks could probably live with 25 percent. They would probably be alarmed by 38 percent.

Of course, these are just best guesses. My guess is the range is actually somewhere between 20 and 40 percent, and that range might be larger than management's willing to risk.

I'm still not quite sure what all the fuss is about. In 13 years, all in this same stadium, the Diamondbacks have seven winning seasons and four division titles. Their problem these last couple of seasons hasn't been the ballpark. It's been a shortage of great players.

Gleeman on a deal that's worked out quite nicely for the Tigers (if not well enough, this season):

When the Tigers demoted Max Scherzer to Triple-A in mid-May he was 1-4 with an ugly 7.29 ERA, but since returning following a two-week stint in Toledo he's been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball.

Scherzer tossed eight innings of one-run ball against the Blue Jays last night, improving to 9-5 with a 2.20 ERA, .215 opponents' batting average, and 116 strikeouts in 111 innings since rejoining the rotation.

Just another chance to revisit the big three-team deal from last winter that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees; Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke, and Austin Jackson to the Tigers; and Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks. And last month the Diamondbacks flipped Jackson to the White Sox for Daniel Hudson (and 19-year-old pitching prospect David Holmberg).

So far, the Tigers and Diamondbacks have come out way ahead on this deal, and the Yankees have come out ... well, not so far ahead. Granderson's been decent, but it's a cold fact that Austin Jackson alone has been more valuable than Granderson ... and the Yankees gave up Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke, too. Both of whom have been quite good.

Has anyone put together a complete database of trades that would allow one to study (for example) the results of trading young players for older players? I doubt the comprehensive results would be as dramatic as this particular deal. But I suspect trading veterans for kids works less often than it does.

Are the Diamondbacks going to do something about all those home runs? Nick Piecoro:

Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall said the club is "looking at everything" in hopes of creating a neutral playing environment - or at least one that doesn't skew so heavily toward hitters.

Among the ideas: Changing the dimensions, raising fences and even borrowing a page from Colorado's Coors Field by storing baseballs in a climate-controlled humidor.

"We do know that it's an issue," Hall said. "The offense is unreal at Chase Field. We have a launching pad now. We have a team that's hopefully going to be built around young pitching. We should look at ways to reduce offense, especially from an opponents' standpoint."

--snip--

The Rockies began using a humidor at Coors Field in 2002, a room housing hundreds of baseballs cooled to 70 degrees with 50 percent humidity, the same specifications Rawlings uses when making the balls. It remains a hitter's park, but offensive numbers have plummeted after 2001.

"It's made a huge difference," Rockies General Manager Dan O'Dowd said. "I don't think it's made a bad pitcher a good pitcher, but I think it's created a better mind-set more than anything as it relates to our ballpark."

--snip--

Dipoto likes the idea of a humidor at Chase Field. But, he wonders, why stop there?

"I don't know why every team wouldn't have some type of climate-controlled baseball storage," he said.

I sort of thought every team did. According to this piece more than three years ago, "The Colorado Rockies' method of storing baseballs is fast growing from a curiosity to standard operating procedure in the Majors. "

Or not.

If you're not going to emulate the Rockies in Phoenix, then where? It's warm there and it's dry, which is a wonderful recipe for energetic baseballs.

Installing a climate-controlled space for the baseball's is a lot cheaper and easier than tearing out seats and moving fences, and I don't understand why the Diamondbacks haven't done it already.

Anyway, I love this bit from Derrick Hall, who "also sees how spacious Petco Park has helped the San Diego Padres develop young pitchers, believing pitchers gain confidence with success at home and take it with them on the road."

"We have very young pitching and it looks like that's our future," Hall said. "So why wouldn't we tailor our ballpark to be an advantage there?"

Wasn't it just a year or two ago that people were saying the Padres should make their ballpark easier for the hitters? Because their hitters were getting demoralized, and that it would be impossible for the Padres to attract top hitters from outside the organization, or keep their own?

I happen to agree with Hall's essential point, which is that Chase Field is a tough place for young pitchers. I just wouldn't hold up Petco Park as a paragon worthy of emulation. When it comes to player development and decision-making, I think the great majority of franchises are best served by ballparks that don't stray far from the middle.

Tommy Rancel on the Diamondbacks' latest find:

In terms of real-life analysis, the thought process behind the Edwin Jackson for Dan Hudson trade was to give up a year and a half of Jackson for six seasons of Hudson. Jackson is a talented pitcher, but he's on his fifth major league team before the age of 27. He's a nice piece at the back end of the rotation, but will make more than $8 million next season. Hudson may not have the raw ability that Jackson does, but he will earn around the league minimum for the next few seasons, likely for similar production.

After spending the 2008 season at the rookie level of the minor leagues, Hudson blew through all levels of the White Sox system in 2009 - earning a call-up to he majors after starting the year in low-A ball. He began 2010 at Triple-A, where he continued to post fantastic numbers - especially in the strikeout category. In 93.1 innings, he struck out 108 batters while walking just 31.

Hudson would make three unimpressive starts for the White Sox big club this season before the trade to Arizona. Again, while the move was made with the future in mind, Hudson has provided the Diamondbacks with favorable results in the present.

--snip--

After four turns through the Arizona rotation, the 23-year-old right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA. Hudson has struck out an impressive 27 batters in 29.1 innings with the D-Backs, while handing out just four walks.

It's worth mentioning, I think, that Edwin Jackson's been fantastic with the White Sox: 1.35 ERA in three starts, with 24 strikeouts and five walks.

Unfortunately, because of the future costs associated with each pitcher, this trade works for the White Sox only if Jackson's better than Hudson in the near term and Jackson's performance gets the White Sox into the playoffs. Otherwise it's just an awful, awful deal.

That's one example of a "challenge trade": I'll trade you my [position] guy for your [same position] guy." We don't have many examples, but we've got another fine one this season: shortstop Yunel Escobar for shortstop Alex Gonzalez. When the deal was made, the point (from the Braves' perspective) was supposedly addition by subtraction, as the Braves were reportedly disenchanted by Escobar's attitude as much as his slow start this season, statistically.

Since the trade? In 27 games, Escobar's batted .297/.350/.414, right in line with his career numbers. In 31 games, Gonzalez has batted .250/.317/.411, almost exactly in line with his career numbers. They're both good defensive players. The only real difference between them -- leaving aside attitudes, I mean -- is that Gonzalez is six years older and slightly more expensive.

We'll see what happens. But I suspect that in both cases, we'll wind up figuring the teams getting the younger players did better.

Does adding a pitcher with a 5.16 ERA to your rotation ever work?

Sure. One year ago the Twins added Carl Pavano (5.37) to their rotation. He helped them reach the playoffs, pitched seven excellent innings in his postseason start, and today he's 13-6 with a 3.21 ERA.

So, yeah. It does happen.

I'm not convinced that Edwin Jackson is the new Pavano, though. When the Twins traded for him, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 3.83; his ERA was elevated because he'd given up a few extra home runs (and probably hadn't gotten much help from his bullpen). Meanwhile, Edwin Jackson probably deserves his 5.16 ERA. His 1.73 strikeout-to-walk ratio is right in line with his career mark (1.60) and isn't likely to improve upon returning to the American League.

The White Sox presumably are hoping that Jackson's solid 2009 predicts his future better than the rest of his career does. Maybe they're right. He's still only 26, and Chicago's coaching staff has worked wonders with Gavin Floyd.

It seems a strange move, though, doesn't it? Considering Daniel Hudson's youth and talents? Maybe pitching coach Don Cooper has seen something in Hudson's three (!) starts he just didn't like?

MLB Trade Rumors:

Hudson, 23, rocketed up Chicago's farm system last year with "three solid pitches and natural deception," according to Baseball America. He's spent most of this season in Triple A, posting a 3.47 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 with 13 home runs allowed in 93.3 innings. The D'Backs have to be concerned that their revamped rotation is built around young flyball pitchers, with Ian Kennedy and Joe Saunders already in the fold. The D'Backs will have Hudson under team control through 2016 even if they keep him in the Majors the rest of the season.

I'm not a big Saunders fan, but if you're trying to rebuild your rotation, Kennedy and Hudson are a pretty good start.

Jeff Passan on the deal that may have set the Diamondbacks back years in their rebuilding process:

The Angels depantsed the Arizona Diamondbacks. They stole Dan Haren in a trade and left the directionless D’backs naked and with nowhere to hide. First, Arizona panicked by firing general manager Josh Byrnes earlier this season. Now, with suitors from coast to coast putting together packages for Haren, they jumped at one centering around Joe Saunders.

Again, just for giggles: Twenty-nine year-old Dan Haren, one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball entering this season, and still an ace, for Joe Saunders.

OK, so there are a few kids involved, too: Twenty-one year-old left-hander Pat Corbin, 26-year-old reliever Rafael Rodriguez and a player to be named later who could be 19-year-old lefty Tyler Skaggs. No can’t miss prospects. No top-of-the-line major league players. Just Saunders, his miserable strikeout rate and a lot of dreaming.

Passan cleverly reviews the players exchanged when the Diamondbacks traded for Haren less than three years ago. Then, they gave up a platoon of top prospects: Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham and Dana Eveland.

Now, there's a real good reason why Haren's not worth as much now as he was then. Then, he was a durable All-Star under team control for three years and $16 million. Now, he's a durable All-Star under team control for three years and $41 million.

That difference of $25 million is why the Diamondbacks couldn't get nearly the haul the Athletics got, three years ago.

Still, someone seems to have messed up here. If Joe Saunders plus some (relatively) unheralded prospects was the best the Diamondbacks could do, 1) they should have just kept Haren until they could get more for him, and 2) a bunch of other teams looking for a good starting pitcher really, really messed up by not offering the Diamondbacks a more attractive package than the Angels.

My guess? Diamondbacks management simply overrated Joe Saunders -- perhaps because of his 54-32 career record -- and, especially, the three minor leaguers in the deal. I'm sure they've got a bunch of bright people working there. But it would be odd if they were so right about this deal and everyone else were so wrong.

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised by anything in the Year of the Pitcher (21st century edition). Maybe we shouldn't be surprised, after a season -- no, make that less than half a season -- that's already seen the first no-hitter in Rockies history and not one but (almost!) three perfect games. A season that's already seen that same Rockies pitcher win 13 games against just one loss, and a Mariner on track for the greatest strikeout-to-walk ratio in the game's long, long history.

What does it all mean?

For the Tampa Bay Rays, it means they've now been no-hit three times in their last 140 games. Which would be freakish enough if the Rays were the Indians or the Pirates. Since they're most decidedly not one of those hitting-starved teams, it's downright impossible (granted, Carlos Pena is now under the Mendoza Line and Carl Crawford didn't bat in tonight's game).

For Edwin Jackson, it means a game he'll never forget. Which would be true even if this wasn't one of the most unlikely no-hitters in the history of no-hitters. In his previous 125 starts in the majors -- his whole career -- Jackson had thrown two complete games and one shutout (a four-hitter three years ago). Jackson gets his share of strikeouts but he's never been particularly hard to hit, giving up nearly 10 hits per nine innings in his career. Tonight he issued seven walks and threw 68 pitches in the first three innings. This simply wasn't supposed to happen.

For A.J. Hinch, it means this season hasn't been a complete disaster. Some managers, and perhaps most managers, wouldn't have allowed Jackson to throw 149 pitches. But Hinch must have figured he'd just go for it. If Jackson is limited to 80 pitches in his next start or just skips his next start, nobody is going to mind. Now, if Jackson strains his elbow and winds up on the disabled list for a few months, that's different. But tonight, nobody was worrying about that. Not seriously, anyway. With the Diamondbacks in last place and Jackson sitting on a 4-6 record, Hinch didn't throw caution to the wind. He grabbed caution by the neck, spit in its face, and then he strangled it.

For baseball, it means another chance to trumpet the effectiveness of its drug policy. Hitting isn't down nearly as much this season as you might think (or as you've been told) ... but it's down some, and last year it was down from the year before. We've seen four no-hitters already this season and while we might not see another, this does seem to be a new era, an era in which pitchers will somewhat regularly do incredible things. Even pitchers like Dallas Braden and Jackson.

Tyler Kepner a few days ago, on the National League West's last-place team:

The Diamondbacks, who host the Yankees for three games this week, have regressed each season since reaching the National League Championship Series in 2007. They wheezed to 82 victories in 2008, dropped to last place in the West last season and remain there now.

--snip--

[Brandon] Webb is one of three potential free-agent starters for the Diamondbacks, with Dontrelle Willis and Rodrigo Lopez. Their ace is Dan Haren, who is signed through 2012, and Byrnes would probably at least listen to offers for him.

"There’s not sort of one player on our team we have to trade, but we’re open to changing the look and feel of our roster to some degree," [General manager Josh] Byrnes said. "In a market like ours, we have to be disciplined with managing our payroll. It doesn’t hurt to assess what’s out there and see if there's a good deal. But the perception that we’re going to make a lot of trades is probably overblown."

Well, just to review some recent franchise history ...

When the Diamondbacks won 90 games (and reached the National League Championship Series) in 2007, they were outscored by 20 runs. Every time I brought this up during that season, somebody tried to convince me that manager Bob Melvin had discovered some magic formula for winning games while being outscored.

In 2008, they outscored their opponents by 14 runs and went 82-80. Which is to say, after beating their Pythagorean projection (big time) in one season, the next season they hit it exactly. Stop the presses.

In both seasons, the Diamondbacks essentially played like a .500 team ... and before both seasons, I expected them to play better than that. Last year, they went 70-92 with the run differential of a 75-87 team ... again, both figures worse than I expected.

Ah, but the Diamondbacks wouldn't fool me again. This year, I would ... Actually, this year I again thought they would be better than they are. Essentially, every year I think Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds and Chris Young and Justin Upton are going to play well, and every year just one or two of them does play well. Every year I think Dan Haren and Brandon Webb will be one of the best pitching tandems in the majors, and sometimes they are and sometimes they aren't.

And yet ... I still can't help thinking the Diamondbacks aren't that far off. They still have four talented young players in the lineup, and they still have Haren and (eventually) Webb, to whom they've added Ian Kennedy. The bullpen's obviously a disaster ... but the bullpen's the easiest thing to fix, right?

Next year I'm going to be cautious about the Diamondbacks. I'll have to agonize before ranking them higher than fourth place in my preseason projections. But I'm not convinced they need to blow things up and start over.

Procedural Note: I'm not exactly sure what Byrnes means when he references "a market like ours" as if that were a bad thing. Last year the Phoenix metropolitan area was the 12th most populous in the United States, and growing incredibly quickly (sure it's a desert, but land is cheap and people are incredibly short-sighted); within a year or two, the region will break into the top 10.

Maybe the corporate support isn't there and maybe retirees won't pay top dollar for tickets and the people are definitely not concentrated within 20 minutes of the ballpark. But the Diamondbacks do not have a population problem.

From the hard-working Nick Piecoro:

The Diamondbacks' disastrous first two months of the season have prompted the club's ownership to consider all avenues of change, including a drastic retooling of the major league roster.

But Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick said all areas of the organization are under review, from General Manager Josh Byrnes' baseball operations department on down to the players, whom Kendrick says are drastically underperforming.

"When the team is playing as badly as this team is," he said, "and we've had a consistent period of questionable performance going back into a full season last year and the second half of the '08 season, you really need to look very broadly at everything and try to objectively determine what kind of changes you really want to make. We're going to go through that process."

--snip--

The team's payroll ticked upward this season as the Diamondbacks made several changes to the roster in the off-season, many of which have worked out well individually, but the collective group continues to struggle. The club's everyday players remain inconsistent, the bullpen has failed epically and the rotation has not pitched well enough to offset those shortcomings.

"We've relied on a core group of young guys," Kendrick said. "They're not all the same guys, but we're in the third or fourth year with guys who were anticipated, as a group, would move along and mature and become better performers, and collectively it hasn't happened at the level we would have expected.

The young guys haven't developed as I thought they would. But we're not really talking about a lot of guys, are we? Chris Young's been a disappointment, but Stephen Drew's a shortstop with league-average hitting and Mark Reynolds will hit 35 or 40 home runs this year. Justin Upton might be the only future superstar, but superstars are really hard to find; when you do find one, you've gotten at least a little lucky.

None of the starting pitchers are products of the organization, but newcomers Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson have both pitched better than their records. Dan Haren is better than his ERA, and Rodrigo Lopez ... well, he's still Rodrigo Lopez, and he's been about as good as anyone could have hoped.

The biggest problem is that bullpen ... which is good news! Because the easiest thing to fix is the bullpen. Even if the Diamondbacks do nothing, the bullpen will improve. Unfortunately, there aren't any other quick fixes available, as the Diamondbacks' Triple-A roster seems bereft of power arms.

Well, there's one quick fix (maybe): Fire the manager!

I don't type those words lightly. A.J. Hinch seems like an intelligent fellow, and I'm not blaming the Diamondbacks' struggles this season or last on him. But Kendrick goes out of his way to absolve Hinch, which seems odd considering that if the manager has a great deal of power over one thing on the club, it's probably the bullpen. He might not choose the relievers he's got, but he does decide how they're used. Isn't it fair to suggest that a different manager might be getting more out of his relievers than Hinch has gotten?

Maybe a "drastic retooling" really is in order, considering that this season's already a lost cause. But that presumably means jettisoning most of the franchise's best players, which in turn means a multi-year rebuilding effort. Is everybody up for one of those?

AZ Snakepit on the Diamondback's running their losing streak to nine, in most excruciating fashion:

The game rolled on as Aaron Heilman pitched a scoreless ninth inning despite giving up back-to-back singles. A.J. Hinch then decided to go with Guti in the 10th, and the recap can pretty much end there. Matt Kemp hits a homerun and the losing streak goes to nine. Juan Gutierrez has the worst HR/9 of ALL TIME in a season for pitchers having pitched 18 innings or more. Mike Lincoln is 2nd with a HR/9 of 4.35 in 2000. In the last three games our starters have pitched 22 innings, and allowed four earned runs, for a 1.64 ERA; we have lost all three games. At this point, I don't even think St. Penelope can help us.

Kemp's home run was his 11th in 52 games, which is really good. Juan Gutierrez' home run allowed was his 10th in 18 innings, which is really, really, really bad. Really.

There are three teams with relief ERAs higher than 5: Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Arizona.

But grouping them together isn't fair to the Indians, with their 5.34 ERA. Or even to the Brewers, with their 6.30 ERA. The Diamondbacks have a 7.70 relief ERA ... and among their relievers, Gutierrez' 10.31 ERA isn't even the worst. That honor goes to Bob Howry (10.67 in 14 innings). And they've been ably supported by Chad Qualls (7.64), Blaine Boyer (7.82) and Leo Rosales (8.10).

Why not just release Gutierrez? Because before this season, he threw 95 and was pretty good. This season -- if you believe the Pitchf/x data -- he's throwing 86, which suggests that there's something really, really, really wrong with him, and doesn't belong in the majors and probably shouldn't be pitching anywhere. I don't trust that data, though. Gutierrez threw four fastballs last night: 93, 95, 94, 94 (according to the Dodgers broadcast).

Why not just send Gutierrez to the minors? Because, according to this, Gutierrez is out of minor-league options, which means he would have to pass through waivers or be lost to another club. And as long he's throwing 93-95, he's not getting through waivers.

So the Diamondbacks would seem to be stuck. Don't be surprised if Hinch is gone before Gutierrez.

From a Tweet earlier today:

I'm told interest in Dontrelle Willis from at least 4 teams: Dbax, Mets, Brewers, Marlins

You know what? I get the Marlins, because ... Wait, no I don't. The Marlins have five starters, and the worst of them (Nate Robertson) is exactly the same pitcher as Willis -- veteran left-hander who can't control the strike zone -- but without the baggage.

Those other three teams ... I don't know. Yes, they're all desperate for pitching, but when you're trying to get out of a hole, don't you have to first stop digging? Over the last three seasons, Willis is 2-8 with 6.86 ERA. Granted, he seems to have made a little progress this season, actually striking out (slightly) more hitters than he walked. But he's got so much further to go ... and now it looks like he'll get his chance with the Diamondbacks; according to multiple reports (including this one), Willis has signed with Arizona, which has the second-worst record in the National League. At least he probably won't throw enough strikes to join the Diamondbacks' home-run brigade.

Update: Willis isn't actually a free agent, so can't "sign" with anyone. However, the latest has him being traded to the Diamondbacks for Billy Buckner.

We never like to rush to judgment here, but on the other hand if there's a chance to make the Evil Empire look bad ...

It’s still very early in the season, but so far, the Detroit Tigers have to be feeling O.K. about the Curtis Granderson trade.

Not only is Granderson sidelined for what could be a month with a groin injury, Austin Jackson, who was the key piece for the Tigers in the three-team deal that sent Granderson to the Yankees, has shined this season as the team’s leadoff batter.

--snip--

Reliever Phil Coke, acquired by the Tigers from the Yankees in the same trade, has also performed well. Coke is 3-0 with a 1.93 earned run average, striking out 11 in 14 innings.

Meanwhile, the starting pitcher Max Scherzer, sent to Detroit from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the same trade, had a solid April, going 1-1 with a 4.23 earned run average. But he took the loss Monday night after being battered for 10 earned runs in four and a third innings against the Minnesota Twins.

Unfortunately for Scherzer, May counts, too; he's now got a 6.47 ERA and his strikeout rate is way down from last season. Coke's 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA, but has walked eight batters in 14 innings. As for Mr. Jackson, he is -- quite improbably -- batting .532 on balls in play. Just by way of comparison, Albert Pujols' career mark is .317, which is a perfectly fine number (his career high is .359, way back in 2003).

So Scherzer hasn't pitched as well as his April ERA, Coke's control could be better, and Austin Jackson's batting average will tumble this month as sure as the sun sets over the Pacific.

Which doesn't mean it was a great trade for the Tigers. Obviously, Granderson's been a distaster, will probably enter June with a .225/.311/.375 line and he hasn't done anything in center field to make people forget Bobby Murcer. But even if Granderson was healthy and playing well, this still winds up a win for the Tigers, who saved some money and added three talented young players while giving up a veteran outfielder and a veteran (though still young) pitcher who has been killing his new team.

When this deal was made, the overwhelming consensus was that the Tigers cleaned up, the Yankees did well enough, and the Diamondbacks got rooked. There were so many moving parts -- all those guys mentioned above, plus Ian Kennedy and control-challenged minor leaguer Daniel Schlereth -- that it's impossible to know, this early in the first post-trade spring, who really did best.

But considering that the Yankees got one past-his-prime player, the Diamondbacks got two hard-throwing starting pitchers younger than 27, and the Tigers got four young players with some promise ... well, sometimes the thing does speak for itself. At least in April.