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Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

Carroll Rogers on the (very young) man who is slated to replace Billy Wagner:

Craig Kimbrel is only 22. He’s about to get a shot at taking over the Braves closer job this spring, with the retirement of Billy Wagner. He has a lot on his mind.

--snip--

When asked at what point last year he realized he could do the major league job, here’s what he said:

“There was never really a point last year where I didn’t think I could do it,” Kimbrel said. “I can’t go on the mound and think ‘I can’t do it,’ because then I’ll be in a losing situation.”

He wasn’t in too many of those. Kimbrel and his 96, 97 mph fastball allowed only one earned run in 20 2/3 innings over four major league stints last season, going 4-0 with an 0.44 ERA. This was on top of going 3-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 23 saves for Triple-A Gwinnett.

The most impressive thing about Kimbrel is missing from the above ... In those (almost) 21 innings, he struck out 40 hitters. Granted, he also walked 16 of them. Thanks to all those walks, Kimbrel's strikeout-to-walk ratio was just 2.5, which is fine but less than brilliant. He didn't give up a single home run, which is brilliant (if obviously unsustainable over the long haul). Oddly, in the minors his strikeout rate wasn't quite as high, but neither was his walk rate, making for a K/W ratio practically the same as in the majors. We should probably just assume that this is who he is, with the caveat that as he matures his command should improve at least a little.

There may be a few bumps along the way. But Carlos Marmol is the same sort of pitcher, and he's got a 2.54 ERA over the past four seasons. If Fredi Gonzalez can live with the occasional ugly outing, Kimbrel should do perfectly well as the Braves' closer.

Ooo, look! A medium-sized blockbuster!

The Atlanta Braves acquired All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins for utilityman Omar Infante and pitcher Mike Dunn on Tuesday in the first trade of the general managers' meetings.

--snip--

Uggla is expected to play second base for Atlanta. His arrival frees up Martin Prado to share time at first base with rookie Freddie Freeman, provides insurance for Chipper Jones at third, and also log some at-bats in left field.

So, let's see ... The Marlins have now, in the space of about 72 hours, traded their starting center fielder and their starting second baseman for three relief pitchers and a utility infielder? And locked down John Buck for three years?

If nothing else, you've got to give them credit for dynamism. I just can't figure out who's going to play center field next spring. And without a center fielder, you give up way too many triples.

But if the Marlins' plan is unclear, from where I sit the Braves' is even less clear. Prado sharing time at first base? It's true that he's not a good second baseman, but if Freeman doesn't deserve the every-day job at first base right now, he will soon. My guess? This is a step along the way to Prado replacing Jones at third base. But for now, Prado will keep doing what he's always done: Play everything in the infield except shortstop.

The takeaway is that the Braves just got more talented, the Marlins less talented. The Braves haven't yet become more talented than the Phillies, nor have the Marlins become less talented than the Nationals.

But both clubs are heading in those directions.

Update: Strike me down for lack of imagination. According to Frank Wren, Prado's ticketed for left field next season. Which makes sense, at least in the short term.

In Craig Wright's latest (subscriber-only) Diamond Appraised newsletter, he responds to a question from a reader about Bobby Cox. After running through all the complimentary stuff, there's this:

I have a lot of admiration and appreciation of Cox as a manager. But I can’t say that Cox is a contender for being considered the greatest manager ever. I got the chance to do some work for the Braves back in 1995-96 which led to an unusual familiarity with what I came to see as Bobby’s strengths and weaknesses. He was an excellent manager for the long haul, assembling and shaping a team, and dealing with issues in the context of the long season. And that quite frankly is the toughest kind of manager to find and the most valuable. But the really great managers -- like Joe McCarthy and Earl Weaver -- are generally good at everything.

As an in-game tactician, Cox appeared to me to be mediocre, and his loyalty to his players -- which was a factor in creating his seasonal strength – turned into a weakness in some of those crucial post-season series. For example, when Cox lost the very close 1996 World Series, the reasons for that defeat were often traceable to poor decisions by Cox that were driven by loyalty issues to certain players in the face of quite practical reasons to go the other way.

If we are going to give Cox credit for the second most post-season wins, we should also acknowledge that he has a big lead in most post-season losses. He actually has a losing record in an immense sample of 136 post-season decisions, and I assure you that his teams were on average not the underdogs in those series. Something did go wrong there. Personally, I think the Braves had more than their share of bad luck in post-season play under Cox, but I have to honestly conclude that he was a part of those struggles, too.

Reluctantly, I must agree. I don't have the energy or the self-confidence to read everything that I wrote during after all those postseason losses, but I do recall being at least mildly critical of Cox more than once. The last time I checked -- and granted, this is going back some years -- one of the less obvious reasons for the Braves' relative struggles was the collective failure of their pinch-hitters ... and that, along with pitching changes, is probably more subject to managerial whim than anything else in October.

Again, it's very easy to overstate this case. Very easy. Bobby Cox managed 16 teams into the playoffs. One of those teams won the World Series. You can argue that most of that is due to poor luck; that with just decent luck, the Braves would have won three or four World Series. I would agree with you.

But let's assume for a moment that the Braves actually won six or seven or eight World Series. Wouldn't Bobby Cox receive a great deal of credit for that?

If so, then we have to assign at least a small spot of blame to Cox for what actually happened.

Mark Bradley is skeptical about Fredi Gonzalez:

He never quite lifted the Marlins to the playoffs — got them over .500 in both 2008 and 2009, though — and this year’s team was thought to be (at least by owner Jeffrey Loria) of playoff caliber. And that’s why Gonzalez was fired after 70 games. And before you say, “Well, Loria wouldn’t know a baseball from the back end of a buffalo … ” let’s consider that Loria did hoist the World Series trophy in 2003 after changing managers in midseason.

But my quibbling about Gonzalez has less to do with his Florida days than with his background: The Braves are essentially hiring from within, and after having the same manager from June 22, 1990 to Oct. 11, 2010, this was their chance to look outside and tap someone who wasn’t immersed in The Braves’ Way Of Doing Things. Other clubs are much heavier into statistical analysis. (Terry Pendleton, the hitting coach, was actually surprised earlier this season when I mentioned that his club led the league in on-base percentage.)

The Braves’ Way worked largely because players loved playing for Bobby Cox. I’m not sure they’ll love playing for Gonzalez quite so much. That’s not a knock on the new man. It’s simply to say that there is — or was; got to get used to using the past tense — only one No. 6.

The Marlins didn't exactly leap into contention after Gonzalez was fired. At the time they were 34-36; under new manager Edwin Rodriguez, they went 46-46. In Gonzalez's (nearly) three-and-a-half seasons managing the Marlins, they won (nearly) half their games. Which seems pretty good, considering the club's payroll throughout those years.

Which is neither here nor there. Maybe the Marlins would have played a little worse without him; maybe they would have played a little better. I just want to suggest that the Braves' familiarity with Gonzalez might be a plus rather than a minus.

No, I'm not a big fan of "legacy" picks. Teams get in trouble all the time by picking someone they're supposed to pick, because of his name or his history. Call it nepotism or cronyism or nostalgia, but it's rarely a good thing.

This isn't that, though. Fredi Gonzalez never played for the Braves. He played for the Yankees. Actually, he played for the Yankees in their farm system, never reaching Triple-A. A long time ago. Gonzalez did coach for the Braves. He was their third-base coach from 2003 through 2006, during which time management presumably became quite acquainted with him ... but certainly were not beholden to him.

Management presumably does believe that he's a good fit as manager ... and that's a bad thing how, exactly? The Braves' Way of Doing Things seems to have served the organization fairly well for quite some time. No, that Way doesn't seem to include a great deal of statistical analysis ... But Gonzalez has been known to keep an open mind, and I can personally report that he attended the SABR Convention in Atlanta this summer.

Nobody can know how Gonzalez will fare in Atlanta. But I don't see any good reason to quibble with his hiring.

As Joe Pawlikowski writes, the Braves chose a lousy time to stop scoring runs:

You might not have known it from their NLDS performance, but the Braves had one of the NL’s best offenses in 2010. They certainly bookended it in the wrong way, scoring 3.7 runs per game in April and 3.4 runs per game in September/October. But from May through August they absolutely crushed the ball, scoring 5.03 runs per game during those 109. Unfortunately for them, it was the April and September versions that showed up in October. That resulted in just nine runs in four postseason games, forcing a first-round exit. It wasn’t hard to see it coming.

--snip--

When the infield crumbled, so did the team. Omar Infante did a good job replacing Jones at first, but fell hard in September. Prado didn’t help matters by playing hurt. That left Brooks Conrad to fill in. He had a good season as a utility guy, but he gets exposed in regular duty. At first it was his arm strength, which necessitated a move to second. Then it was his Game 3 performance. Lee did his best, but he simply could not carry so many ineffective and injured players.

The final point against the Braves was the pitching they faced. They might have averaged those 4.56 runs per game during the season, and their peak might have suggested an even better performance was possible. But that all changes when facing Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner ...

Everything Pawlikowski writes is true. The Braves couldn't put as much talent on the field in October as they could from May through August (and July, particularly). The Giants' starting pitchers are fantastic.

But we must be careful, when discussing such things, to avoid leaving a patina of inevitability.

Yes, the Braves scored only nine runs in four games.

The Giants scored 11 runs.

All four games were decided by one run. The Braves could almost easily have won the series in four games. Almost as easily, the Giants could have swept the Braves, or the Braves the Giants.

My sincere belief is that Bruce Bochy managed his team slightly better than Bobby Cox managed his. I have been castigated for this opinion by Cox's supporters. I might be wrong. Either way, I will say this: The managing was the third most important factor leading to the outcome. The talent on the field was the second most important factor. And first was cruel, kind, completely blind luck.

The better team probably won, and there's something to be said for that. Without two of their best players (Chipper Jones and Martin Prado) missing, the Braves just couldn't put as much talent on the field as the Giants. Not that talent always determines the outcome. But that's the smart way to bet.

A few jumbled-up thoughts about Monday night's game:

• I'll have more about this next month, probably. But Brian McCann, performing brilliantly at the plate and behind it, reminded me that he's one of the best players in the game, and definitely one of the more underrated. McCann's never picked up a single point in MVP balloting, but he's been an All-Star in each of his five full seasons, and has the beginnings of a good Hall of Fame case.
• I wonder ... If Billy Wagner had been available, would Bobby Cox still have allowed Derek Lowe to come out for the seventh inning? Lowe had thrown only 85 pitches, and been brilliant. But his usual limit is roughly 100 pitches, and he was pitching with less rest than usual. Ultimately, I can't really quibble with Lowe starting the eighth. I will question Cox's decision to let Lowe pitch to Pat Burrell, with two on and one out, Lowe by then having thrown 96 pitches.
• This is probably a subject for another day, but it struck me tonight just how little the players care about the fans. We know players don't care about fans when it comes to money; we can't really expect them to. When it comes to winning, though? We can assume the Giants didn't bunt toward Troy Glaus at third base for one of two reasons: 1) Early on, it wasn't considered proper to break up Lowe's no-hitter that way, or 2) it wasn't considered proper, at all, to take advantage of a veteran like Glaus, pressed into service because a colleague had been so terribly embarrassed in the previous game.If I'm a Braves fan, though, I want the players to do everything (within the rules) they can, to win. If the Giants had picked on Glaus, maybe a few dozen men at Turner Field would have been mildly offended. Meanwhile, some 40,000 more people would have cheered their guts out. Particularly if their team had scored more than two runs. And not been knocked out of the tournament.

It's a shame things ended this way for Bobby Cox. In a sense, though, he earned it. He might have lost Game 3 because he didn't get Brooks Conrad out of the game, and he might have lost Game 4 because he didn't get Derek Lowe out of the game soon enough.

Then again, Cox has never been famous for his tactical acumen. He never had the sort of reputation held by Earl Weaver, or Tony La Russa. He wasn't a cheerleader like Tommy Lasorda, either. He was simply a player's manager, a leader of men who just kept plugging away for nearly 30 years. And it says a great deal about Cox that for the last 21 seasons, he's managed the same team through great successes along with the occasional failures. He might not have been the best handler of pitching staffs, or lineups. But he was steady, and he might have been the best handler of men.

It would have been wonderful to see Cox go out on top. But that doesn't happen often. There's a reason they go out.

Craig Calcaterra (who's a Braves fan, by the way) on tonight's shocking lineup change:

I know Troy Glaus can't field anymore either, but what choice does Bobby Cox have? All the players said the right things last night, but you know deep down none of them want Conrad at second base. And the fans? Well, Bobby Cox doesn't give a hoot about what they think, thank goodness, but they wouldn't be too pleased themselves. If Glaus screws up, well, yeah, that will suck, but at least he saved everyone's bacon on Friday. At least he's a veteran. At least it's not doing the same thing and expecting a different result, and people will accept that a hell of a lot better than they'd accept Conrad fielding a ground ball again.

The truth is that there are no good options here. Diory Hernandez may have an OK glove, the Braves wouldn't be in the mess they're in if they could hit a lick, and Hernandez's bat is probably worse than Glaus' glove. When you do battle in the playoffs with your sixth or seventh infielder starting games you're pretty much screwed no matter what you do.

I promise I'll stop beating this poor dead horse soon. Really soon. But this thing just got away from Cox. Plain and simple.

If Cox really thought his best lineup included Glaus at third base and Omar Infante at second base, that's the lineup he would have been writing out every game.

He hasn't been. In his heart, Cox believes his best lineup includes Infante at third base and Brooks Conrad at second base. Except now psychology has come into this thing: Cox and Conrad's. Cox simply can't live with the idea of Conrad kicking a few more balls in this series, and for all we know Conrad can't, either.

But Cox got himself into this mess. If Conrad really isn't good enough to start, Cox should have known that before today. And I can't stop thinking that all this could have been avoided, if Cox had simply lifted Conrad for a better defensive player in the ninth inning of Game 3.

I'm sorry to say this about a Hall of Fame manager who's on the way out. But he blew this one from seven ways to Sunday. Plain and simple.

You hate to see that happen.

I don't know Brooks Conrad. I don't know anything about him (except that right now he's probably wishing his parents hadn't named him Brooks). I can't help feeling for him tonight, though.

Because he will forever be blamed for losing Game 3, 3-2 to the Giants. And if the Braves don't beat the Giants in the next two games, Conrad will forever be blamed for losing this series.

He will, as they used to say, be the goat. Wear the goat horns. Forever.

Which is both ultimately fair, and terribly unfair.

It's fair because he did make three errors, two of which led directly to San Francisco runs. It's fair because he deserved to be charged with each of those errors. It's fair because, compared to most things in life, baseball is pretty good at assigning both credit and blame. Brooks Conrad did make those three errors, and the Braves did lose because of them (and other things, yes).

It's unfair because Brooks Conrad was trying his best. It's unfair because nobody feels worse tonight than he does. It's unfair because he's not even supposed to be there. When this season began, Conrad was essentially the Braves' sixth infielder; mostly, he served as a pinch-hitter. When Chipper Jones got hurt in late July, Conrad was pressed into service at third base because Martin Prado was out of action, too.

When Prado returned, Conrad returned to his reserve duties.

But Prado got hurt again, in the last week of the season. Bobby Cox was almost out of infielders. Omar Infante would keep playing, and Conrad would join him.

But where would Conrad play? In his action at third base, Conrad had posted a .903 fielding percentage. In particular, he'd been erratic with his throws. The throws from second base are shorter. So Infante went to third base, Conrad to second for the Division Series. Bobby Cox probably figured he couldn't win if he couldn't score, and Conrad was his best chance to score.

In fact, the Braves have just one more middle infielder on their roster: Diory Hernandez, who's got a .138 batting average 53 major league games. Hernandez's Triple-A statistics suggest that he's capable of much better, but you can hardly blame Cox for not playing Hernandez's .138 batting average ahead of Conrad's .445 slugging average.

In the first inning, that is. Still, the mind does wonder ... Hernandez has played a lot of shortstop in the minors, along with some time at second base and third. Heading into the top of the ninth inning, the Braves held a one-run lead. Conrad had been charged with two errors already, plus another in Game 1. Leaving sentiment aside, was there a good reason to not replace Conrad with Hernandez? For just one inning? And if Hernandez isn't markedly better with the glove than Conrad, then why don't the Braves have someone who is? It's not like the entire baseball world doesn't know that Conrad's all bat and no glove.

If the Giants had lost Game 3, the goats would have been Sergio Romo and Bruce Bochy (for using Romo). But the Braves lost, so instead Brooks Conrad gets to wear the goat horns.

I can't help thinking, though, that we should save one of those horns for Bobby Cox. Because when all the bad stuff happened, Brooks Conrad should not have been on the field.

The first two days of the 2010 postseason were characterized by brilliant pitching and better teams winning. Which is to say -- and leaving aside Tampa Bay's perplexing miscues -- the first two days went roughly according to form.

The third day, though?

Well, the Phillies are better than the Reds. Which doesn't exactly explain how the Reds blew a four-run lead. Or how they managed to make four errors. Or how the Phillies shot down the Cuban Missile.

All of those things did happen, though. And they make only slightly more sense, knowing the Phillies are better than the Reds.

That was the first game of the third day. What happened in the second game of the third day doesn't make any sense at all.

By the time it ended -- technically, into the fourth day -- none of the big names were anywhere to be found. Tim Lincecum was resting. Bobby Cox, beginning in the second inning, was hidden somewhere out of sight, having been ejected over an umpire's call that might have been correct. Atlanta's starting pitcher had lasted only four innings; San Francisco's starting pitcher had been lifted in the seventh. San Francisco's best relief pitcher had blown a save in the eighth; Atlanta's best relief pitcher had been injured in the 10th.

So when all the famous guys are out of the game, who decides who gets to win?

In this case, two guys who spent most of this season with Kansas City and a guy who spent the second half not hitting and most of this game on the bench.

Let's start with that last guy. Troy Glaus used to be a third baseman. This year, he played exactly two innings at third base. So who could have guessed that he would make the most important play of the Braves' season, starting a game-saving 5-4-3 double play in the bottom of the 10th inning?

Now, about those ex-Royals ... At the trade deadline at the very end of July, the Braves dealt for Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel. It probably wouldn't have happened if Dayton Moore, Kansas City's general manager, didn't still have so many friends in Atlanta.

For roughly two months, the move didn't look all that brilliant. Farnsworth, who'd previously been a fan non-favorite in Chicago, New York, Detroit, and Kansas City, posted a 5.40 ERA in 23 appearances with the Braves. Ankiel batted .210/.324/.328 in 47 games with the Braves.

It wouldn't be fair to say that Farnsworth and Ankiel have been zeroes since joining the Braves. It would be fair to say that neither has played as well as the organization expected. Not nearly as well.

And yet, somehow all of that is forgotten because of just two innings in one game that ended well after midnight back home. Farnsworth, in the game only because Billy Wagner suffered a serious injury, walked the bases loaded before getting the ground ball that Troy Glaus turned into a double play. Moments later, Ankiel hit a baseball into McCovey Cove. Farnsworth made Ankiel's run stand up in the bottom of the 11th.

Before these things start, everybody wants to know who's going to win.

Well, I don't know. Nobody will know. Nobody can know until somebody figures out a way to predict that one of baseball's best bullpens will blow a three-run lead, that Troy Glaus will star at third base, that Kyle Farnsworth will make the biggest pitch of his career, and that Rick Ankiel, with two home runs since July, will hit the biggest home run of his career.

When somebody figures that out, we'll know who's going to win these things.

It's sort of hard to believe that Tim Lincecum threw only one shutout during the regular season.

But then, shutouts are something of a lost art. Last year Lincecum threw only two shutouts ... and tied for the National League lead (with four other pitchers). Because Lincecum's a strikeout pitcher, he tends to throw a fair number of pitches. And because Lincecum's both relatively young and relatively slight, his manager won't let him throw more than around 120 pitches.

Make no mistake, though: Lincecum is a strikeout pitcher, and nobody should be shocked that he set a Giants postseason record with 14 strikeouts against the Braves Thursday night.

These Braves, especially. While the Braves were a pretty good offensive team this season and not particularly strikeout-prone, their lineup took a hit in August when Chipper Jones (.381 OBP) went down, and another in September when Martin Prado (.350) was lost. Meanwhile, additions to the lineup have included Brooks Conrad (.324 OBP), Alex Gonzalez (.291) and Rick Ankiel (.324) ... all of whom went hitless against Lincecum in Game 1.

Then again, it might not have mattered much who was in the lineup.

Lincecum isn't going to win a third straight Cy Young Award. He did, for the third straight season, pace the National League in strikeouts. His control wasn't quite as sharp as it was last year, but essentially the biggest difference between this season and his two Cy Young seasons was eight fly balls.

Last season, Lincecum gave up only 10 home runs. This season, he gave up 18 home runs. Which goes a long way toward explaining why his ERA jumped nearly a full run this season.

Fundamentally, though? He's still the same pitcher who was the best in the National League until Roy Halladay joined the Phillies.

Coming into this series, it was fair to wonder if the Giants had enough weapons against the Braves' right-handed starting pitchers. Well, they seem to have enough when Lincecum's pitching. Because the Braves clearly don't have enough weapons against the Giants' right-handed strikeout machine.

I've never been able to figure out how days can possess rest. But that's not my call. Neither is the Braves' rotation. That's Bobby Cox's call. And he's going with short rest:

The Atlanta Braves plan to start Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe on three days' rest during this last week of their playoff push.

The Braves needed to adjust their rotation because Jair Jurrjens is still slowed by a sore right knee.

--snip--

Manager Bobby Cox says he plans to start Hudson on Tuesday against the Marlins, followed by Lowe on Wednesday.

And if the Braves need to win (as they probably will), Hudson again on Sunday. And as Gleeman points out, that start (if it comes) will come against the Phillies' less-than-best lineup, as they'll obviously be a lot more worried about preparing for their Division Series rather than beating the Atlanta Braves.

But it's not just that game. When we figure playoff odds, we figure in strength of schedule. What we don't do -- can't do systematically, not without some sort of major study, anyway -- is somehow account for what happens when you're playing a team that isn't particularly trying to win.

The Braves have two more games against the Marlins, who aren't playing for anything and won't be using Hanley Ramirez. Then they've got three against the Phillies, who really can't do anything else except get somebody hurt.

Meanwhile, the Giants and the Padres have to try to kill each other this weekend.

As much as anything, this is why the Braves are a great bet for the wild card.

Gleeman on the All-Star we thought was so funny (but isn't anymore):

I was among the many people who mocked Omar Infante's presence on the All-Star team and I'll stand by that mockery, because at the time he was a 28-year-old career-long utility man who wasn't even playing every day for the Braves.

However, he's been on fire since the All-Star break ... Atlanta needs Infante more than ever in the wake of Chipper Jones' season-ending knee injury and he's responding by actually, you know, playing like an All-Star.

It's true.

That doesn't mean he wasn't a silly All-Star choice when Charlie Manuel actually, you know, made the choice. At that time, Infante wasn't one of the 200 best or most valuable players in the major leagues.

But when we look at All-Stars retrospectively, we don't usually bother to look at their first-half stats. We look at what they did in the whole season. And while Infante's playing time will seem a bit scant to historians, his percentages -- .349/.381/.458 -- will seem mighty impressive.

Particularly if Infante wins the batting title. At the moment, he doesn't have enough plate appearances to qualify. To reach 502, he needs another 169 in the Braves' 38 remaining games.

That might happen, but probably won't. Especially if the Braves lock up a playoff spot in the last week of the season, and Bobby Cox wants to rest some guys. Essentially, Infante will have to lead off in almost every game to reach 502.

There is a loophole, though. Usually it's a small loophole. But this year it's a loophole big enough for Omar Infante to drive a batting title through.

If a player doesn't finish with 502 plate appearances, you can the add necessary hitless (and imaginary) plate appearances to get him there. If his new (imaginary) batting average is still good enough to lead the league, he gets his batting title.

Well, right now Joey Votto's the official leader in the batting race, with a .323 average. If Infante keeps his average above .340, he'll have more than enough wiggle room in the event he doesn't reach 502 plate appearances.

And yeah: Nobody's going to wonder why a guy who won a batting title was an All-Star. Regardless of how improbable that batting title might have been.

Capitol Avenue Club's Peter Hjort on the deal sending Derrek Lee to the Braves:

... the Cubs get three legitimate prospects. The best of the trio is Robinson Lopez, a 6’23 right-hander with an extremely live arm and a very projectable frame. His results at class A Rome have been disappointing, but it’s important to remember he’s only 19 years old and this is his first full season. I still hold him in very high regard. The other two are relievers. Lorick, the left hander, was a 20th round pick out of the University of Virginia in last year’s draft. He’s not the typical refined prospect you see from a 4-year college, but he has some late-game potential. Harris was taken one round before Lorick in the same draft. He throws hard and he’s had a successful first full pro season, making it all the way to AA. He’s got a huge frame (6’43, 235 LB), and like Lorick has some late-game potential.

I think the Cubs did very well to get Lopez and two interesting relief prospects, even if they had to pay some to get them. Still, this deal probably makes the Braves better, and the middle of a pennant race isn’t the time to worry about giving up a lottery ticket and some Carolina League relievers.

Still, if the organization had put Troy Glaus on the DL a month ago, they’d probably still have their three prospects and a productive first baseman.

It's a fair point. If Glaus's struggles over the last month have been caused by a real injury, somebody should have known about it before now.

Of course, it's entirely possible that if they'd put him on the DL a month ago, they'd have traded three prospects then rather than now.

Like Peter, I can't really fault the Braves for doing this deal. But unless Lee helps get them into the playoffs, the trade might look really, really silly in a few years.

From ESPN Chicago:

The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves are working on a deal to send first baseman Derrek Lee to Atlanta for prospects, according to a league source.

Lee, who is presently dealing with a bulging disc on his lower left side, received an epidural on Monday to relieve the pain and will not be ready to play again until Thursday.

Braves top scout Jim Fregosi watched Lee hit four home runs during a series in St. Louis over the weekend. Fregosi reported back to general manager Frank Wren that Lee was swinging the bat as well as he has all season, according to a source.

Atlanta lost All-Star third baseman Chipper Jones for the season with a knee injury on Aug. 10. First baseman Troy Glaus, a former third baseman, could be moved back to third if Lee is acquired.

The key passage here: Lee was swinging the bat well.

It's hard to swing the bat well with a bulging disc. Impossible, maybe. Add the fact that before last weekend's homer-fest, Lee was sporting a .246/.332/.383 batting line for the season, and you have to wonder if he's really any sort of upgrade over what the Braves already have.

You can understand the Braves' concern about first base, though. Since June, Troy Glaus is hitting .192/.292/.288 in 36 games. If the Braves do get a first baseman, I would expect Glaus to spend more time on the bench than at third base (where Omar Infante would provide a better glove and roughly as much hitting).