SweetSpot: Barry Bonds
Best batter-pitcher matchups of all time
May, 24, 2012
May 24
6:00
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Eric RisbergBarry Bonds hit three home runs in 49 at-bats against left-handed power thrower Randy Johnson.With that prompt, I'd thought it would be fun to list 10 of my all-time favorite matchups I would have wanted to see ... although a few of them are recent enough that some of us did see them. With help from Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org, we can even find results of the matchups.
Ty Cobb versus Walter Johnson (.366, 1 HR)
According to researcher Terry Cullen, Cobb hit .366 in his career off Johnson (120-for-328) -- pretty amazing considering Cobb's average against all pitchers was ... .366. While Cobb reportedly said Johnson's fastball "looked about the size of a watermelon seed and it hissed at you as it passed," he certainly didn't have issues hitting it. Cobb knew Johnson was too nice to pitch inside, so he'd crowd the plate. "I saw him wince when he fired one close to somebody's head, and he used to tell me that he was afraid someday that he would kill a man with that fireball," Cobb once said. "So I used to cheat. I'd crowd that plate so far that I was actually sticking my toes on it when I was facing Johnson. I knew he was timid about hitting a batter, and when he saw me crowding the plate he'd steer his pitches a little bit wide. Then with two balls and no strikes, he'd ease up a bit to get it over. That's the Johnson pitch I hit. I was depending on him to be scared of hitting me." Now, that's what Cobb said; seems a little too simple though, doesn't it? Why didn't every hitter do that? There's no doubt the approach helped Cobb, but unlike most hitters, he could hit Johnson's fastball. (By the way, his only home run off Johnson was an inside-the-parker.)
Babe Ruth versus Lefty Grove (incomplete)
Some say Grove was the best pitcher of all time -- 300 wins with a .680 winning percentage, nine ERA titles, seven consecutive strikeout titles. Wouldn't you love to see Ruth taking a big cut against Grove's legendary fastball? I couldn't find Ruth career's numbers against Grove, but he did hit nine home runs off him, tied with Lou Gehrig and Hank Greenberg for the most against Grove. In the data Retrosheet has available, Ruth hit .300/.349/.438 with three home runs in 80 at-bats, six walks and 27 K's.
Ted Williams versus Bob Feller (.347/.467/.677, 9 HR in 124 ABs)
Those numbers are from Retrosheet, but are incomplete. From 1948 to 1956, Williams crushed Feller -- .389/.511/.833, with eight home runs in 72 at-bats. So, at least initially, Feller fared better before Williams started dominating. Williams did call Feller the best pitcher he ever faced.
Willie Mays versus Bob Gibson (.196/.315/.304, 3 HR in 92 ABs)
With his fastball/slider combo, you might expect that Gibson was tough on right-handed batters and you'd be correct: right-handers hit .204 against him, left-handers .257. Basically, he owned Mays, who struck out 30 times in 108 plate appearances and had just four extra-base hits. In James Hirsch's biography of Mays he tells the story of Gibson once visiting Mays' home wearing glasses. Gibson didn't wear them when he pitched. "You wear glasses? Man, you're going to kill somebody one of those days," Mays said. Hirsch writes that later in his career Mays started conveniently scheduling off days against hard-throwers like Gibson and Tom Seaver, and that he always preferred off-speed pitches to fastballs.
Hank Aaron versus Bob Gibson (.215/.278/.423, 8 HR in 163 ABs)
Aaron had a little more success than Mays. So who did hit well against Gibson? Billy Williams hit .259 but with 10 home runs in 174 at-bats and 24 walks against 14 strikeouts. Richie Hebner had a 1.127 OPS against Gibson in 74 PAs, batting .387. Darrell Evans, facing mostly the late-career Gibson, never struck out against him in 35 PAs, drawing 11 walks and and hitting three home runs.
Willie Mays versus Sandy Koufax (.278/.426/.536, 5 HR in 97 ABs)
Of course, Mays faced the young Koufax, and then the unhittable Koufax. During Koufax's 1962-1966 run, when he led the National League each season in ERA, Mays still hit a respectable .242/.373/.484, with more walks than strikeouts.
Hank Aaron versus Sandy Koufax (.362/.431/.647, 7 HR in 116 ABs)
Of 73 players with at least 40 career plate appearances against Koufax, only five hit .300. Most of that damage was against pre-'62 Koufax, as Aaron hit .259 from '62 to '66.
Mike Schmidt versus Nolan Ryan (.179/.405/.482, 5 HR in 56 ABs)
Ryan came over to the Astros in 1980, the year Schmidt won the first of his three MVP trophies. In the ultimate battle of power hitter versus power pitcher, the results were perhaps what you would expect: Schmidt hit for a low average, but got on base and popped home runs at a pretty good ratio.
Barry Bonds versus Greg Maddux (.265/.376/.508, 9 HR in 132 ABs)
The two came up in 1986, so it's not surprising that Maddux faced Bonds more than any hitter in his career. How good was Bonds? Even the pitcher with pinpoint control walked him 24 times in 157 PAs with just 16 strikeouts. Bonds' nine home runs off Maddux are the most he hit off one pitcher, tied with John Smoltz. Bonds had an .883 OPS against Maddux, but 1.138 against Smoltz and .992 against Tom Glavine. Who did own Bonds? He went 3-for-33 off Chuck McElroy, with just one walk (although two home runs).
Barry Bonds versus Randy Johnson (.306/.452/.551, 3 HR in 49 ABs)
Johnson had 37 intentional walks in his career; 34 were to right-handed batters. Two were to Barry Bonds. The other? Jeremy Hermida. Go figure. The first walk to Bonds came in 2003, runner on second, no outs, sixth inning, Diamondbacks down 2-0. The second one came in 2004 and is more interesting: 2004, game tied in the fifth, runners on first and second. Edgardo Alfonzo hit a fly ball to deep left-center that Luis Gonzalez dropped; Steve Finley was then credited with an error on the throw in as all three runners scored. The walk to Hermida came in 2008, in a game Hermida was batting eighth. Maybe that's when Johnson knew he was nearing the end.
What are some of your favorite matchups?
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Why Pujols could still post MVP numbers
May, 2, 2012
May 2
7:00
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Chris CarlsonAlbert Pujols isn't alone among elite hitters who have had prolonged slumps.After all, this is player who ranks eighth all time in career adjusted OPS, behind seven guys named Ruth, Williams, Bonds, Gehrig, Hornsby, Mantle and Brouthers. (Well, maybe you don't know that last guy. That's Dan Brouthers, who played in the 19th century). Pujols never had a bad month. OK, he did twice hit under .250 in a month -- July of 2001, his rookie season, when he hit .241 but still hit four home runs and had a .793 OPS; and last April, when he hit .245 but slugged seven home runs.
But we're now 24 games into the season and Pujols is homerless with a feeble .208/.255/.292 line. I broke down his issues last week, but I wanted to take another approach. Have other all-time great hitters ever gone through a similar spell while still in their prime seasons? I examined seven of the best post-World War II hitters to see.
Stan Musial
April 15-June 12, 1947: 44 games, .202/.298/.345, 5 HR, 23 BB, 13 SO
Musial didn't quite have the power of Pujols but did top 30 home runs six times. Not surprisingly for a guy who hit .300 for the first 16 seasons of his career, he didn't suffer many dry spells. As it turns out, even his slow start in 1947 was caused by bad health -- appendicitis and tonsillitis.
Willie Mays
April 17-May 13, 1956: 22 games, .209/.303/.384, 3 HR, 11 BB, 8 SO
Mays actually went through a few slumps in his career, unusual for hitters of his caliber. Here's one from the start of the 1956 season. Through 42 games he still had just four home runs. Good news for Angels fans: Mays still finished with 36 home runs as he hit six home runs in both June and July, nine in August and 11 in September.
July 3-Aug. 3, 1958: 30 games, .250/.356/.313, 0 HR, 19 BB, 10 SO
Mays went through a long homerless drought in 1958. Before the drought, he missed two games while hospitalized with fatigue. In fact, going back to May, Mays would hit just three home runs over a 65-game stretch. One big difference between this slump and Pujols' slump: Mays had 19 walks and 10 strikeouts while Pujols has six walks and 14 strikeouts. He'd finish the year hitting .347 with 29 home runs.
May 28-June 25, 1959: 27 games, .265/.318/.367, 1 HR, 8 BB, 8 SO
According James Hirsch's "Willie Mays: The Life, the Legend," Mays battled a couple injuries during his span. On June 1, a home-plate collision with Del Rise left him with bruised shins. Rice broke his leg on the play and Mays left the game. Three days later, Mays hurt his shoulder in another home-plate collision. He played for a few days after that but then missed five games, available only to pinch-hit.
Aug. 28-Sept. 30, 1960: 32 games, .288/.343/.400, 0 HR, 9 BB, 10 SO
Mays hit .319 with 20 home runs in 1960, but only a home run on the final day of the season prevented a homerless September. Still, he managed to hit .288 during this power drought.
April 22-May 15, 1963: 22 games, .244/.330/.329, 1 HR, 11 BB, 10 SO
Now 32 -- the same age as Pujols -- Mays appeared to have just had a slow stretch soon after the season began. He'd still finish with a .314 average and 38 home runs and finish fifth in the MVP vote. Best-case scenario for Pujols?
June 24-July 31, 1965: 22 games, .223/.289/301, 2 HR, 10 BB, 11 SO
One final slump for Mays, but this one was another injury-related one. According to Hirsch's book, Mays pulled groin muscle on June 30 and then bruised his thigh and hip in a home-plate collision on July 10 that forced him to leave the game. Nonetheless, he'd still end up with one of his greatest seasons: a career-high 52 home runs and his second MVP trophy.
Hank Aaron
June 1-June 25, 1956: 28 games, .227/.277/.327, 1 HR, 8 BB, 10 SO
Few players matched the Aaron's consistency. This was just his second full season, still 22 years old. He'd end up winning the batting title that year with a .328 mark.
April 25-May 28, 1958: 31 games, .208/.288/.320 1 HR, 14 BB, 14 SO
Despite this dry spell, Aaron would finish at .326 with 30 home runs.
May 2-June 9, 1968: 32 games, .179/.268/.325, 3 HR, 16 BB, 15 SO
Aaron was 34 by now and 1968 was the famous Year of the Pitcher. Aaron would recover to hit .287 with 29 home runs -- big numbers for that season, as he ranked fifth in the NL in home runs.
Barry Bonds
April 8-May 19, 1991: 31 games, .182/.272/.255, 2 HR, 14 BB, 21 SO
I checked Bonds from 1990 to 1999, and this was the only bad stretch he had. It was likely caused by a bruised thumb that did force him to miss four games in early April and took time to heal.
July 28-Sept. 1, 1995: 33 games, .208/.386/.396, 4 HR, 28 BB, 25 SO
Here's another low-average stretch for Bonds, but even then he hit a few home runs and drew 28 walks in 33 games. Again, that's one big problem Pujols is having: his walk rate has declined significantly.
Manny Ramirez
Sept. 1995: .247/.314/.333, 1 HR in 24 games
Not too many bad months for Ramirez. This one came at the end of his first full season in the majors.
April 2007: 24 games, .202/.314/.315, 2 HR, 15 BB, 15 SO
Another slow stretch. Ramirez would finish with a .296 average and 20 home runs in 133 games.
Alex Rodriguez
Sept. 1999: .183, but seven home runs
June 1-June 26, 2006: 22 games, .213/.351/.325, 2 HR, 15 BB, 24 SO
July 26-August 20, 2010: 20 games, .195/.241/.416, 5 HR, 5 BB, 18 SO
A-Rod has had a few low-average periods in his career, but has usually kept his power intact. That poor 2010 stretch includes various ailments -- hip flexor tendinitis, a bruised shin and a strained calf muscle.
Miguel Cabrera
August 2007: .229/.345/.448, five home runs
Cabrera has essentially been slump-proof so far. This is the worst month on his record and it was still a big spike compared to what Pujols has done.
Why does this all mean? I guess there is enough anecdotal evidence here that even superstar hitters in the prime (or very near their prime) can still have rough stretches for 20-plus games. Look, Pujols isn't going to turn into a .220 hitter overnight. Yes, he's undoubtedly hit into some bad luck so far. Maybe like Willie Mays in 1963 or 1965 he can suffer through this slump and still put up MVP numbers. Hey, it's one reason we watch. Because we don't really know, do we?
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
This just in: Cabrera and Fielder are good
April, 7, 2012
Apr 7
8:35
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
This is what will have American League pitchers and managers waking up in cold sweats all season long: Those stretches when Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both raking, eyes bulging as they pummel meaty fastballs over fences and into outfield seats.
Josh Beckett become the first pitcher to experience these forces of nature in action, as both hit two home runs off him in Detroit's 10-0 victory Saturday over Boston. Fielder hit one out to left field and a low, screaming bullet to right for his pair. Going the opposite way is nothing new for him; 11 of his 38 home runs in 2011 went to left or left-center. There were some concerns that Fielder would lose a few home runs moving from Miller Park to the more spacious environs of Comerica, so hitting one out to left is a good, early sign.
How dynamic is this pair? A season ago, Fielder hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 home runs; Cabrera hit .344/.448/.586 with 30 home runs. The last team with two players to hit 30 home runs with a .400 OBP? The 2006 Red Sox with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Twelve teams since 2000 have had such a duo (or in the case of the 2004 Cardinals, three players):
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AP Photo/Duane BurlesonPrince Fielder waves after hitting the first of his two home runs off Boston's Josh Beckett.
AP Photo/Duane BurlesonPrince Fielder waves after hitting the first of his two home runs off Boston's Josh Beckett.2005 Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi
2004 Cardinals: Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen
2003 Yankees: Giambi, Jorge Posada
2002 Astros: Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman
2001 Rockies: Todd Helton, Larry Walker
2001 Cardinals: Pujols, Edmonds
2000 Cardinals: Edmonds, Mark McGwire
2000 Angels: Tim Salmon, Troy Glaus
2000 Astros: Bagwell, Moises Alou
2000 Mariners: Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez
2000 Giants: Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent
Of course, all of those pairs or threesomes did this during the high-offense steroids period. Six other teammates did it between 1995 and 1999. But before that? That previous team to have two such players was the 1969 Oakland A's with Reggie Jackson and Sal Bando. Throughout baseball history there have been only 34 such pairs. Here's another way to do this. Let's add OPS+ (adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage) as a third measuring stick. OPS+ adjusts a player's offensive production for home park and era. In 2011, Cabrera's OPS+ was 181, second in the American League. Fielder's was 164, fourth in the National League. Let's set a minimum of 30 home runs, .400 OBP and 150 OPS+.
This takes away some of steroids-era pairs and leaves us with 24 such teammates in baseball history. And six of those 24 were Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.
And that, my readers, is the kind of company Cabrera and Fielder have the chance to join.
A few more notes from today's early games:
- Beckett served up five home runs, sending waves of sweats and swears throughout Red Sox Nation. He became just the fourth pitcher to allow five homers twice in his career, joining Tim Wakefield, Pat Hentgen and Jeff Weaver. Gordon Edes had a good piece on Beckett before his season debut, detailing his motivation for 2012. Beckett is a bit of an enigma, a guy usually viewed as an ace due to his postseason heroics with the Red Sox in 2007 and Marlins in 2003. But the facts also don't lie: He's finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA only twice, including last season with a 2.89 mark. Beckett has been homer-prone at various stages of his career, most notably in his first season with Boston, in 2006, when he gave up 36. It's only one start, of course, but considering the spring training thumb injury he insisted wasn't an injury, it puts Beckett on the early "keep an eye on him" watch list.
- Angels manager Mike Scioscia picked Game No. 2 to get disgruntled Bobby Abreu in the lineup, putting Abreu in left and moving Vernon Wells to center, sitting defensive whiz Peter Bourjos in the process. "I'm not calling this a day off for Peter, it's the second game, but it's a combination of that and trying to get some left-handed bats in the lineup," Scioscia told Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles. I can't imagine a more defensively challenged outfield pair than those two. Unable to see this game since I had the Red Sox-Tigers game as my local Fox broadcast, I tweeted Angels and Royals fans to ask how many of the 11 hits Dan Haren allowed fell just out of their reach. The consensus seemed to be two or three, although @dblesky wrote, "There were really only a couple. And one was glaring." It will be interesting to see how often Scioscia runs out this lineup, essentially to placate Abreu. I just don't see the Angels being a better team with that alignment and Bourjos on the bench.
- Zack Greinke had a dominant effort in the Brewers' 6-0 shutout over the Cardinals, allowing three hits in seven innings with no walks and seven strikeouts. I wrote this before the game, but here's why Greinke is a good Cy Young pick. Especially impressive were Greinke's economical 91 pitches.
- Tweet of the day after Daniel Hudson and the Diamondbacks beat the Giants for the second consecutive game:
Good way to start the season. Two mistakes and I paid for it. But a win is a win. #sweepthegiants tomorrow! #GoDbacks
— Daniel Hudson (@DHuddy41) April 7, 2012
The two greatest hitters of all time
March, 9, 2012
Mar 9
11:00
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Mark Rucker/Transcendental Graphics/Getty ImagesA 20-year-old rookie Ted Williams has fun with a retired Babe Ruth in 1939.It's not surprising that Babe Ruth and Ted Williams reached the finals of our Greatest Season Ever bracket. In Ruth, you have the most iconic player of all time; in Williams, you have the owner of perhaps the most iconic season of all time.
Maybe it's a little surprising that a season that occurred 91 years ago and another that occurred 71 years ago made our final round -- as I wrote the other day, try to imagine such a result in any other sport. But it speaks to the legacy that baseball holds over us, the importance of its history as our national pastime, the weight and consideration we still give to statistics and magical numbers and, yes, the iconic status of two hitters whose great seasons came before the game was integrated.
On a pure statistical level, Ruth and Williams are the two greatest hitters of all time. In offense-only career wins above replacement, Ruth ranks No. 1 and Williams ranks No. 6 (despite missing nearly five full seasons to military service). In career OPS, Ruth and Williams rank first and second. In adjusted OPS, they still rank one and two. In career runs created, Ruth ranks second (behind Barry Bonds) and Williams ranks sixth despite the missed time. In adjusted batting wins, Ruth is first and Williams essentially tied for third with Ty Cobb (Bonds is second). In a statistic called offensive winning percentage, which calculates how an entire lineup of Ruth or Williams would fare with an average pitching staff and average defense, Ruth rates first and Williams second. The figures: .858 and .857. (All rankings from Baseball-Reference.com.)
Now, I have no doubt that if you put Albert Pujols into a time machine that took him back to 1921, he'd put up numbers comparable to Ruth's. I'm sure if you brought Ruth back in the time machine to 2011 that he'd be able to match Pujols' numbers. But he was the evolutionary figure, the guy who swung hard every time, who was willing to sacrifice strikeouts if it led to more home runs. He brought power to the game, leaving John McGraw's "inside baseball" in the dust. Look, was it easier in Ruth's time? Of course it was. The pitchers didn't throw as hard; this is fact, not speculation, best indicated by the nugget that Ruth used a 52-ounce bat early in his career. His bats did get lighter (he was one of the first batters to start using a thinner handle to better whip his stick through the strike zone), but you wouldn't be able to consistently get around on 95 mph fastballs with a 52-ounce or 48-ounce or 44-ounce bat.
An interesting comparison between Ruth and Williams is they both grew up in troubled circumstances. Ruth's father owned a saloon, and young George Herman Ruth was always in trouble. Nobody knows the exact reasons Ruth was initially sent away to St. Mary's Industrial School for Boys. (His sister claimed it was because Ruth simply refused to go to school.) He first went there when he was 8, more permanently when he turned 10. Reports vary on whether his mother (until she died) and father visited him at the school. Williams' father abandoned the family, and Bill James quotes Williams as once saying, "Well, I wouldn't have wanted to be married to a woman like that, either."
As James writes, "By the time he was 20, Williams was insecure, moody and filled with hate. ... He had a lot more in common with Ty Cobb than Babe Ruth." That passion fueled Williams as a hitter. But he was not a fan favorite the first part of his career, even in Boston. There were times he didn't hustle, there were times he made obscene gestures to fans and he famously feuded with reporters. Ruth, of course, was beloved, a hulking, gregarious figure who lived a big life and hit big home runs. It's been 76 years since he played his last game, and he still looms large over the sport as the widely regarded greatest player of all time.
Ruth, in 1921, hit .378 with 59 home runs, 171 RBIs and 177 runs scored. He drew 145 walks, struck out 81 times, had a .512 on-base percentage and slugged .846. Williams hit .406 in 1941, refusing to sit on the final day of the season with a .400 average and went 6-for-8 in a doubleheader. He drew 147 walks and struck out just 37 times, leading the league with 37 home runs and 135 runs scored. His .553 on-base percentage is the third-highest single-season total of all time, behind two of Bonds' seasons. Of course, Williams is the last guy to hit .400. Amazingly, he didn't win the MVP Award that season, losing out to Joe DiMaggio, although Williams actually outhit DiMaggio during the latter's 56-game hitting streak.
Ruth or Williams? Who gets your vote?
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Baseball fans still revere olden days
March, 6, 2012
Mar 6
12:52
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
We've moved on to the second round of the Greatest MLB Season Ever bracket. All top-10 seeds advanced, but there were three upsets; interestingly, all involved shortstops. Alex Rodriguez lost to Ken Griffey Jr. in a Mariners death duel (got destroyed, actually, 87 percent to 13 percent); Hank Aaron defeated Robin Yount, 61 to 39 percent; and Jimmie Foxx creamed Cal Ripken, 71 to 29 percent. Maybe I'll have to write up a post on the value of positional scarcity.
I'm not surprised about Rodriguez; even though I chose one of his "pre-steroid" seasons, he's not exactly a fan favorite. Griffey has no PED stain on his reputation, a huge advantage in a popular vote like this. I was surprised Ripken lost so easily to Foxx, despite Foxx's awesome power numbers in 1932 (58 home runs, 169 RBIs). Ripken remains one of the most beloved players ever, and while his raw numbers in 1991 might not immediately impress (.323, 34 home runs, 114 RBIs), those were tremendous numbers for that season and especially tremendous for a shortstop in the pre-Rodriguez/Jeter/Garciaparra era.
But here's what stands out to me: Baseball fans still show great respect for the old guys. Foxx beat Ripken. Aaron over Yount. Stan Musial over George Brett. Joe DiMaggio edged out Albert Pujols in the closest first-round vote, 52 to 48 percent. Ty Cobb easily outvoted Rickey Henderson. In fact, in every matchup in which there was a sizable generation gap, the older guy won. Now, some of these weren't necessarily surprises -- it's not surprising that Mickey Mantle would beat Mike Piazza, for example -- but could you imagine this happening in other sports? No football fan thinks Bronko Nagurski was better than Walter Payton or Emmitt Smith. Sammy Baugh wouldn't outpoll Peyton Manning. George Mikan wouldn't beat out Shaquille O'Neal. Bob Cousy doesn't beat out Magic Johnson or even a more modern guy such as Dwyane Wade.
But in baseball, we cling to the past. Yes, the sport has been around longer, so the framework of the game hasn't changed dramatically like it has in football or basketball. I always wonder why people will argue that football and basketball athletes have improved, but not baseball players. Of course, baseball players in 2012 are bigger, stronger and more athletic than the players Babe Ruth faced in 1921. Pitchers throw harder. Outfielders cover more ground. Infielders have stronger arms. That's the way sports evolve.
* * * *
OK, a quick look at Round 2 in which the matchups get a lot tougher to decide:
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AP File PhotoThe Milwaukee Braves' Hank Aaron was named the NL's MVP in 1957.
AP File PhotoThe Milwaukee Braves' Hank Aaron was named the NL's MVP in 1957.But here's what stands out to me: Baseball fans still show great respect for the old guys. Foxx beat Ripken. Aaron over Yount. Stan Musial over George Brett. Joe DiMaggio edged out Albert Pujols in the closest first-round vote, 52 to 48 percent. Ty Cobb easily outvoted Rickey Henderson. In fact, in every matchup in which there was a sizable generation gap, the older guy won. Now, some of these weren't necessarily surprises -- it's not surprising that Mickey Mantle would beat Mike Piazza, for example -- but could you imagine this happening in other sports? No football fan thinks Bronko Nagurski was better than Walter Payton or Emmitt Smith. Sammy Baugh wouldn't outpoll Peyton Manning. George Mikan wouldn't beat out Shaquille O'Neal. Bob Cousy doesn't beat out Magic Johnson or even a more modern guy such as Dwyane Wade.
But in baseball, we cling to the past. Yes, the sport has been around longer, so the framework of the game hasn't changed dramatically like it has in football or basketball. I always wonder why people will argue that football and basketball athletes have improved, but not baseball players. Of course, baseball players in 2012 are bigger, stronger and more athletic than the players Babe Ruth faced in 1921. Pitchers throw harder. Outfielders cover more ground. Infielders have stronger arms. That's the way sports evolve.
* * * *
OK, a quick look at Round 2 in which the matchups get a lot tougher to decide:
- Babe Ruth 1921 versus Joe DiMaggio 1941: The Babe remains the overwhelming favorite to win the tournament, but Yankees fans will be torn here. DiMaggio had the historic 56-game hitting streak and should get a boost from playing a brilliant center field.
- Carl Yastrzemski 1967 versus Honus Wagner 1908: Two guys who utterly dominated their leagues. Fans respect the old guys, but Wagner's stats were compiled in the dead ball era and might not impress the voting public.
- Ty Cobb 1911 versus Joe Morgan: I've made my case for Morgan. Not that Cobb was a slouch. Note that while Cobb hit .420 to Morgan's .327. Their OBPs were essentially identical (.467 to .466). And while 1911 was the dead ball era, consider this: The OPS in the 1911 AL was .696; the OPS in the 1975 NL was .696.
- Rogers Hornsby 1922 versus Mickey Mantle 1956: The Mick won the Triple Crown, but Hornsby hit .401 with 42 home runs and 152 RBIs. I expect a close vote.
- Barry Bonds 2001 versus Ken Griffey Jr. 1997: The most intriguing matchup of the second round. Bonds beat out Johnny Bench 65 to 35 percent, and while it was a decisive victory it's also clear that many voters held PED usage against Bonds. With a tougher second-round matchup, it will be interesting to see how he fares.
- Stan Musial 1948 versus Willie Mays 1962: What makes this even more interesting is that Musial played a lot of center field in 1948. Not saying he played it as well as Mays, but it makes his season more impressive than at first glance.
- Hank Aaron 1957 versus Lou Gehrig 1927: Two MVP winners, two beloved players. Both World Series champions as well. I'll say Gehrig pulls it out.
- Jimmie Foxx 1932 versus Ted Williams 1941: No matter the era, 58 home runs and 169 RBIs are impressive. But so is .406. I'll predict Teddy Ballgame rolls on.
Introducing: Best season of all time bracket
March, 5, 2012
Mar 5
1:30
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Rich Pilling/Getty ImagesIn the mid-1970s, Joe Morgan was the best all-around player in baseball -- by a large margin.As we begin voting Monday on the greatest individual season of all time, consider Morgan's value that season:
- He drew 132 walks, giving him a league-leading .466 on-base percentage (the highest figure, by the way, in either league between Mickey Mantle in 1962 and Wade Boggs in 1988).
- Because of his ability to get on base, he created a lot of runs --about 145, 17 more than the No. 2 hitter in the league, Greg Luzinski. But he created his runs in an efficient manner. He used up 354 outs; Luzinski, by comparison, used up 443 outs. So Morgan created more runs while using up 89 fewer outs.
- He stole 67 bases in 77 attempts. Factor in his speed, and he was one of the best baserunners in the league.
- He was an outstanding defensive second baseman, not only winning a Gold Glove but also ranking as the third-best overall defensive player in the National League in 1975, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
- He did all this in an era when second basemen usually produced little at the plate. In 1975, National League second basemen hit a collective .267/.330/.353 (BA/OBP/SLG) -- with just 80 home runs. Morgan hit nearly one quarter of all home runs by National League second basemen. In 2011 terms, that would be akin to a second baseman hitting close to 50 home runs.
- The Reds won 108 games, Morgan was the near-unanimous MVP winner, and he even drove in the winning run in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series.
Add it up, and you end up with a player who was the best hitter in the league and one of the best defenders and baserunners in his league, and he did so while towering over other players at his position and playing on a championship team.
The wins above replacement statistic attempts to capture all this. In 1975, Morgan’s Baseball-Reference WAR was 12.0, the best of his career and easily the best in the National League. During his 1972 to 1976 peak, Morgan rated as the best player in the NL four times, at least acording to Baseball-Reference.
In 1975, Morgan was a full five wins better than Mike Schmidt, an astonishing total. Only 12 times since 1901 has a player recorded a bWAR of at least 4.5 wins higher than the No. 2 position player in his league:
1921 AL: Babe Ruth (14.0) over Ty Cobb/Tris Speaker (6.6)
1924 AL: Babe Ruth (11.9) over Harry Heilmann (6.2)
1956 AL: Mickey Mantle (12.9) over Yogi Berra (7.3)
2002 NL: Barry Bonds (12.2) over Jim Edmonds (7.2)
1975 NL: Joe Morgan (12.0) over Mike Schmidt (7.0)
1924 NL: Rogers Hornsby (13.0) over Frankie Frisch (8.0)
1967 AL: Carl Yastrzemski (12.2) over Al Kaline (7.3)
1946 AL: Ted Williams (11.8) over Johnny Pesky (6.9)
1923 AL: Babe Ruth (14.7) over Harry Heilmann (9.8)
1926 AL: Babe Ruth (12.0) over Goose Goslin (7.2)
1922 NL: Rogers Hornsby (10.7) over Dave Bancroft (5.9)
1948 NL: Stan Musial (11.5) over Johnny Mize (6.9)
For what it’s worth, only three of those 12 seasons ended in a World Series title -- Morgan, Mantle and Ruth in 1923.
So maybe Joe Morgan didn’t hit 73 home runs or drive in 191 runs or bat .400. But his 1975 season ranks as sleeper candidate for greatest individual season of all time.
* * * *
It wasn’t easy picking the 32 best seasons. I had two rules: Only one season per player, so we’d end up with a bracket of 32 different players; and I considered only seasons since 1901 (sorry, Ross Barnes fans).
It was important to get a diverse list of eras as well as positions. I did put a little more emphasis on more recent decades; basically, the quality of the game has improved over time, thus making it more difficult to post seasons with huge WAR totals like Ruth put up. Here is the breakdown by decade:
1900s -- 1
1910s -- 3
1920s -- 3
1930s -- 2
1940s -- 4
1950s -- 3
1960s -- 2
1970s -- 3
1980s -- 3
1990s -- 4
2000s -- 4
And by position:
C -- 2; Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza.
1B -- 3; Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Rod Carew.
2B -- 4; Eddie Collins, Rogers Hornsby, Jackie Robinson, Joe Morgan.
3B -- 2; George Brett, Mike Schmidt.
SS -- 5; Honus Wagner, Ernie Banks, Robin Yount, Cal Ripken, Alex Rodriguez.
LF -- 6; Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols. (Ruth played left field in 1921, and Pujols primarily played left in 2003.)
CF – 8; Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Hack Wilson, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. (Musial started at all three outfield positions in 1948 but played the most in center.)
RF -- 2; Hank Aaron, Sammy Sosa.
So there are our 32 players. I didn’t necessarily pick each player’s highest WAR season. In some cases, a player’s iconic season -- like Ted Williams’ .406 year or Hank Aaron’s 1957 MVP campaign -- was selected. In some instances, maybe a player had other things in his favor that would help him to potentially fare better in the voting, like a big RBI total. Certainly, WAR is a good baseline to use because it helps us adjust for differences in eras, but it shouldn’t be the only factor in determining the better season between two players. Was what Williams accomplished in 1941 more impressive than what Morgan accomplished in 1975? Is Yount being the best hitter in his league while playing shortstop more impressive than what Babe Ruth did in 1921 against an inferior brand of pitching? Maybe you prefer the all-around brilliance of Mays or DiMaggio over the pure hitting dominance of Rogers Hornsby or Lou Gehrig.
Which seasons just missed the cut? There were seven players who had a bWAR season of at least 10.0 who didn’t make the bracket -- Lou Boudreau, Jason Giambi, Ron Santo, Adrian Beltre, Home Run Baker, Norm Cash and Matt Kemp. Sorry, guys. (Just noticed there are three third basemen there; too late now to change the final 32, unfortunately.)
So get to the bracket and start voting. We’ll do one round per day this week, culminating in the final matchup on Friday.
Let the debates begin.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
AP Photo/Jae C. HongThe team GM Kenny Williams, left, hired Robin Ventura to manage certainly has its share of holes.Robin Ventura succeeds Ozzie Guillen as manager of the White Sox, having never managed (or coached) at any level in pro ball. Just what has he gotten himself into?
Distinguished Playing Career
Although he will be hard-pressed to make as vivid an impression as his predecessor, Ventura should be able to command the respect of his players on the basis of his own career as a player. Though he isn’t a Hall of Famer, he has certainly had a career worthy of a Cooperstown exhibit. He was a three-time All-American at Oklahoma State University, where he set the NCAA consecutive game hitting streak record of 58 (he still holds the Division I mark). He was a first-round draft pick (10th overall) of the Chicago White Sox in 1988 and made his big-league debut a year later, after only 129 games in the minors.
While never a top-10 player, with few "black ink" stats on the back of his baseball cards, his career was notable for its consistency. Though he only surpassed 100 RBIs and 30 homers twice in his 16-year career, he was a six-time Gold Glover at third, and from 1991-2003 he compiled a 117 OPS+, with no season lower than 97. Whatever foot speed he had in his youth was erased in a horrific fractured/dislocated ankle injury suffered during a spring training game in 1997. He had compiled a line of .276/.367/.442 prior to 1997, but only .256/.357/.446 from 1997 onward.
Ventura had a knack for making history with the bases loaded. On September 4, 1995, he became only the eighth player to hit two grand slams in the same game. On May 20, 1999, he became the first and only player to hit a grand slam in both games of a doubleheader. During Game Five of the 1999 National League Championship Series, he hit a walkoff slam, which turned into a "Grand Slam Single" when his trip around the bases was interrupted by a celebrating teammate who hoisted Ventura up, preventing him from touching home plate. Another memorable moment came in a game against the Rangers in 1993, when he decided he didn’t like getting hit by Nolan Ryan, and charged the mound, only to be "noogied to death" by the 46-year-old Texan.
Track record of neophyte managers
Of those who will be pacing a dugout in 2012, at least seven went into their first big-league stewardship like Ventura is now, a babe in the managerial woods. But unlike Ventura, they all had prior coaching experience. Let’s examine how those seven did in their first two seasons:
- Dusty Baker (1993 Giants): Baker inherited a team that won 72 games in 1992. Thanks in large part to the addition of free agent Barry Bonds (who compiled a 1.136 OPS), San Francisco improved to a 103-59 record in 1993, with Baker winning NL Manager of the Year. The '94 squad slumped to a 55-60 mark in the strike-curtailed season.
- Bob Melvin (2003 Mariners): The 2002 squad went 93-69, only good enough for third place in the highly competitive American League West and six games out of the wild card. Melvin guided the M’s to the exact same record in his first year. This time they nabbed second place in the West, but still missed the wild card by two games. Melvin’s second year saw the Mariners fall from seventh to last in the AL in runs scored, and the team went 63-99. Melvin was fired after the season.
- Ozzie Guillen (2004 White Sox): After the Sox went 86-76 in 2003, Guillen took over in 2004 and led the team to an 83-79 finish. His second season was when the magic happened: An AL-best 99-63 record and a 11-1 postseason record culminating in the franchise’s first title since 1917.
- Joe Girardi (2006 Marlins): The 2005 Florida squad went 83-79, and Girardi somehow guided the team with the lowest payroll in the majors in '06 to a very respectable 78-84 record. He was rewarded with the NL Manager-of-the-Year award, but not before getting fired by the Marlins due to some clashes with ownership.
- Bud Black (2007 Padres): Black’s fortunes were similar to Melvin’s -- he barely changed the team’s record in his first year (going from 88-74 to 89-74, with that 163rd game being a loss in the wild card tiebreaker), then saw the team totally collapse in his second season (63-99).
- Kirk Gibson (2010 Diamondbacks): The D-backs had suffered through a 70-92 campaign in 2009, and were on the same path in the middle of 2010 at 31-48 when Gibson took over. He guided them to a slightly better 34-49 finish, then surprised most pundits with an NL West Division title in 2011, going 94-68 and earning the league’s Manager-of-the-Year award.
- John Farrell (2011 Blue Jays): After the Jays finished in fourth place in the AL East 2010 despite an 85-77 record, manager Cito Gaston retired, and Farrell was surprisingly given the reins. The Jays meandered to an 81-81 ledger in 2011, never more than four games over or five games under .500 at any point.
- Don Mattingly (2011 Dodgers): Donnie Baseball took over for a retiring Joe Torre, who had gone 80-82 in 2010. Despite all the off-field distractions, and very little offense outside of Matt Kemp, Mattingly was able to guide the Dodgers to an 82-79 record in 2011.
Two of the most recent examples of managers being hired despite no prior managing or coaching experience have turned out poorly:
- Buck Martinez (2001 Blue Jays): The 2000 season saw the Jim Fregosi-led Jays go 83-79. Martinez, who spent most of his post-playing career in the broadcast booth, led the ’01 squad to a similar 80-82 record; after getting off to a 20-33 start in 2002, Martinez was fired.
- A.J. Hinch (2009 Diamondbacks): The 2008 Diamondbacks went a disappointing 82-80, and when they started out 12-17 in '09, Hinch was given the job, at the tender age of 34. He led the team to a 58-75 finish to that season, and was 31-48 in the 2010 campaign when he was replaced by ... Kirk Gibson.
As you can see, most times there is little change in year one, but major upheaval (both good and bad) in year two.
The team he will manage
Since their splendid 99-63 regular season run to the 2005 World Series title, the record of the ChiSox has been neither wretched nor exemplary. With the exception of 2007 (a 72-win campaign), they’ve won between 79 and 90 games each year. They’ve compiled a .511 winning percentage and just one playoff appearance. They rank 13th in W-L percentage during that time.
[+] Enlarge
Jennifer Stewart/US PresswireHow John Danks, right, performs as No. 1 starter and whether Gordon Beckham can get his OPS back on track are key questions awaiting Ventura.
Jennifer Stewart/US PresswireHow John Danks, right, performs as No. 1 starter and whether Gordon Beckham can get his OPS back on track are key questions awaiting Ventura.In 2012, the club will face some major hurdles if it wishes to improve on last season's performance or even just to keep pace with it. The starting rotation must replacing staff ace/workhorse Mark Buehrle’s 200-plus innings. Buehrle’s 2,425 frames since 2001 are 60 more than anyone else. John Danks, who pitched better than his 4.33 ERA might suggest, assumes the No. 1 starter position, with 22-year-old Chris Sale stepping into the rotation. Philip Humber pitched more than 21 2/3 innings in the majors for the first time in 2011, by 141 innings; his BABIP was a low .276, and something may have to give in 2012. In the bullpen, Matt Thornton has been the ChiSox primary set-up man for six years, and had a shot to close last year but lost it; with the departure of Sergio Santos via trade, can the 35-year-old Thornton step up, despite a sharp drop in his K/9 rate last year (12.0 to 9.5)?
On offense, there is a growing concern over second baseman Gordon Beckham. The former first-round draft pick has seen his OPS slide from .807 to .695 to .633, though his defense has improved at second base. Third baseman Brent Morel may not be the answer at the hot corner, as his profile (a .250 doubles hitter with few walks and below-average range) is lacking for the position. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski is 35 and closing in on 1,500 games behind the plate. His 120 games at catcher last year were his lowest since 2004, and he threw out only 20 percent of runners attempting to steal, below his career mark of 24 percent. There have been only 30 player-seasons in the past 50 years where a 35-or-older catcher has managed at least a .728 OPS (as Pierzynski did last year).
Then we come to the two biggest enigmas, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. Everyone is well aware of Dunn’s legendary collapse in 2011, including his .064 batting average versus lefties. With three years and $44 million to go, can new hitting coach Jeff Manto get "The Big Donkey" standing upright again? Also, while Rios will never truly be worth the $21 million he is drawing each year through 2014, the Sox hope for something closer to the .284/.334/.457 line of 2010, rather than the .227/.265/.328 slash of 2011. They’re moving him to left field this season, where he has played one game his entire career.
Will Ventura exceed expectations?
So, Robin Ventura will certainly have his hands full (and tied) with a team that is, at best, in transition and, at worst, about to fall off a cliff. If he can move the White Sox in the right direction, it will be yet another extraordinary performance, as impressive as any of his grand slams. Given his history as a player, and the opportunity to establish a new atmosphere in the clubhouse, I think there is at least a chance he can pull it off.
Diane Firstman blogs about baseball at Value Over Replacement Grit, a SweetSpot network affiliate, and you can follow her on Twitter at @dianagram
Five best players in baseball: A history
January, 15, 2012
Jan 15
4:40
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
AP PhotoJoe Morgan, Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols all made cases for being the best player in the game during different stages of their career.None of those statements are necessarily incorrect. But are they good Hall of Fame arguments? How many players can you claim were “one of the best in the game” over a period of years? So here’s what I did. I went back to 1969 and looked at each five-year span to determine the five best players in baseball, based on cumulative Baseball-Reference wins against replacement over those five years. (For the purposes of this piece, I looked just at position players.)
So here we go, with the usual caveats about WAR. You’ll see a lot of the same players and you’ll see a lot of Mike Schmidt and Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols in the top spot. But while the best player may not change all that often, it’s interesting to see who pops in some of the top five slots.
1969-1973: Sal Bando (33.6), Joe Morgan (32.7), Reggie Jackson (32.2), Johnny Bench (30.4), Pete Rose (30.1)
Our first entry and we already get a big surprise: Sal Bando, the best player in baseball? It may seem odd now, but Bando was one of the most respected players in the game at the time and finished second, third and fourth in MVP votes in 1971, 1973 and 1974. He hit for power, drew walks and played a solid third base, putting up big numbers for the era in the Oakland Coliseum, a place where batting averages and fly balls often went to die.
1970-1974: Joe Morgan (37.6), Johnny Bench (31.9), Sal Bando (30.0), Reggie Jackson (29.2), Pete Rose (28.8)
No change in the top five, although Morgan takes a big leap ahead of the others, replacing a more mundane 1969 with a monster 1973. You’re going to see a lot of Morgan here, as his 1972-76 run was one of the greatest five-year stretches in baseball history.
1971-1975: Joe Morgan (46.2), Reggie Jackson (33.3), Johnny Bench (31.9), Pete Rose (29.6), Willie Stargell (29.5)
Some believe Rose was a compiler, a good player who merely played forever. That’s not accurate; while he was never the best player in the game -- although he did win the 1973 MVP Award -- he was clearly one of the best for a period of years. This peak coincides with his years in the outfield; his value started declining once he moved to third base in 1975, where it’s fair to say he wasn’t exactly Brooks Robinson.
1972-1976: Joe Morgan (51.0), Rod Carew (33.2), Cesar Cedeno (32.5), Johnny Bench (32.1), Bobby Grich (32.0)
Absolutely phenomenal: Morgan was nearly 18 wins better than the No. 2 player over this five-year span. I don’t know if any player has ever dominated the game to the extent Morgan did over this stretch (that’s another article). Cedeno was a marvelous talent, a power/speed center fielder who hit .298 while averaging 21 home runs and 55 steals per season over these five years. The Astros moved the fences back in 1977 (10 feet at the foul lines, 12 feet in the power alleys), hurting Cedeno’s power. He injured his knee in 1978 and then broke his ankle in the 1980 playoffs, sapping his speed and effectively ending his years as a productive player.
Is Pujols the greatest hitter of all time?
October, 23, 2011
10/23/11
7:43
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
I asked my colleague Jim Caple a simple question: "Who is on your short list of the greatest hitters of all time?"
He reeled off the names: Pujols, Bonds, Ruth, Williams ... Mays, Hornsby, Cobb (a little reluctantly on that one). We could include a few others, of course -- Gehrig, Aaron, Musial.
Anyway, maybe we'll do a more thorough examination of this question in the offseason. This is just a quick primer as we sit here waiting for the start of Game 4.
Here are the all-time leaders in FanGraphs' wRC+, which compares a hitter's runs created to an average player and is park- and league-adjusted, so a batter with a 150 wRC+ created 50 percent more runs than average:
1. Babe Ruth, 197
2. Ted Williams, 189
3. Barry Bonds, 175
4. Lou Gehrig, 174
5. Rogers Hornsby, 171
6. Ty Cobb, 171
7. Mickey Mantle, 171
8. Albert Pujols, 167
Here is the case against each of those eight, plus Willie Mays:
Babe Ruth
Case against: The advanced statistics don't factor in a timeline adjustment -- or what can be called the evolutionary improvement in the game. Overall, the players in Ruth's era were not as good, not as big and strong as today, the equipment wasn't as good, the fields not as good. This made it easier for a great player to excel above a league-average type of player. Put it this way: Ruth did not have to face guys like Alexi Ogando throwing 97-mph fastballs and 89-mph sliders. You think Ruth would be able to get the 40-ounce bat he used in 1927 around on a 100-mph Justin Verlander heater?
Ted Williams
Case against: The era he played in was perfect for him, a time when pitchers walked more hitters than now, amplifying Williams' skill-set -- patience the plate -- even more. Only hit 40 home runs once. While wRC+ accounts for Fenway being a great hitter's park, it perhaps doesn't fully factor in the advantage it gave Williams, who hit .361 there, .328 on the road. Integration didn't come until the second half of his career, and even then the AL lagged behind the NL.
Barry Bonds
Case against: Bonds through the 1999 season: .288/.409/.559; Bonds from 2000 (when he turned 36 during the season) to the end of his career: .322/.517/.724.
Lou Gehrig
Case against: Played in the 1920s and 1930s, the best offensive era in major league history. Played before integration. Since he got sick, his last season came when he was 35, so he missed the decline phase of his career, which would have lowered his career wRC+ number (although boosting his overall numbers).
Rogers Hornsby
Case against: Fabulous peak, but last great season came when he was just 33. Same arguments here as Ruth and Gehrig; without a timeline adjustment it was easier to statistically excel over an average player. Here's another example about the quality of play issue: In the 1920s National League, when Hornsby dominated, the strikeout rate never topped 3.0 per nine innings. Are we to assume the hitters were all just awesome back then? Or is it possible pitchers just didn't throw as hard, and thus it was easier to put the ball in play?
Ty Cobb
Case against: Talk about a different era. Fielders used gloves barely bigger than their hands when he played. He hit with a split-handed grip, which I'm not sure would fly against 97-mph fastballs on a regular basis. H&B factory records list his bat sizes in 1920 as 36 to 38 ounces, and 37 to 40 ounces in 1921-22. All this suggests a batting style more like a guy slapping the ball in play, as opposed to trying to drive the ball on a regular basis. (I'm not exactly saying Ichiro here; more like a slightly more powerful version of Tony Gwynn.) Could he have hit for power in a different era?
Mickey Mantle
Case against: Short career, too many injuries. Never played 150 games in a season after turning 30.
Albert Pujols
Case against: Has yet to enter decline phase of his career, grounds into too many double plays, doesn't walk quite as much as OBP kings like Ruth, Williams, Bonds and Mantle. The big question here: Has he entered the decline phase of his career? The biggest red flag to me on his 2011 season is that his walk rate dropped significantly from previous seasons, as he was more aggressive at the plate (he swung at 44 percent of all pitches this season, compared to slightly less than 40 percent over the previous five seasons). This change of approach could signify a guy who recognized his bat speed has started to slow slightly and thus swung more often early in the count. Or it could simply be a situation of him getting more pitches to hit with Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday hitting behind him.
Willie Mays
Case against: Career on-base percentage is nearly 100 points below Ruth and Williams, lowering his career wRC+ to .157.
He reeled off the names: Pujols, Bonds, Ruth, Williams ... Mays, Hornsby, Cobb (a little reluctantly on that one). We could include a few others, of course -- Gehrig, Aaron, Musial.
Anyway, maybe we'll do a more thorough examination of this question in the offseason. This is just a quick primer as we sit here waiting for the start of Game 4.
Here are the all-time leaders in FanGraphs' wRC+, which compares a hitter's runs created to an average player and is park- and league-adjusted, so a batter with a 150 wRC+ created 50 percent more runs than average:
1. Babe Ruth, 197
2. Ted Williams, 189
3. Barry Bonds, 175
4. Lou Gehrig, 174
5. Rogers Hornsby, 171
6. Ty Cobb, 171
7. Mickey Mantle, 171
8. Albert Pujols, 167
Here is the case against each of those eight, plus Willie Mays:
Babe Ruth
Case against: The advanced statistics don't factor in a timeline adjustment -- or what can be called the evolutionary improvement in the game. Overall, the players in Ruth's era were not as good, not as big and strong as today, the equipment wasn't as good, the fields not as good. This made it easier for a great player to excel above a league-average type of player. Put it this way: Ruth did not have to face guys like Alexi Ogando throwing 97-mph fastballs and 89-mph sliders. You think Ruth would be able to get the 40-ounce bat he used in 1927 around on a 100-mph Justin Verlander heater?
Ted Williams
Case against: The era he played in was perfect for him, a time when pitchers walked more hitters than now, amplifying Williams' skill-set -- patience the plate -- even more. Only hit 40 home runs once. While wRC+ accounts for Fenway being a great hitter's park, it perhaps doesn't fully factor in the advantage it gave Williams, who hit .361 there, .328 on the road. Integration didn't come until the second half of his career, and even then the AL lagged behind the NL.
Barry Bonds
Case against: Bonds through the 1999 season: .288/.409/.559; Bonds from 2000 (when he turned 36 during the season) to the end of his career: .322/.517/.724.
Lou Gehrig
Case against: Played in the 1920s and 1930s, the best offensive era in major league history. Played before integration. Since he got sick, his last season came when he was 35, so he missed the decline phase of his career, which would have lowered his career wRC+ number (although boosting his overall numbers).
Rogers Hornsby
Case against: Fabulous peak, but last great season came when he was just 33. Same arguments here as Ruth and Gehrig; without a timeline adjustment it was easier to statistically excel over an average player. Here's another example about the quality of play issue: In the 1920s National League, when Hornsby dominated, the strikeout rate never topped 3.0 per nine innings. Are we to assume the hitters were all just awesome back then? Or is it possible pitchers just didn't throw as hard, and thus it was easier to put the ball in play?
Ty Cobb
Case against: Talk about a different era. Fielders used gloves barely bigger than their hands when he played. He hit with a split-handed grip, which I'm not sure would fly against 97-mph fastballs on a regular basis. H&B factory records list his bat sizes in 1920 as 36 to 38 ounces, and 37 to 40 ounces in 1921-22. All this suggests a batting style more like a guy slapping the ball in play, as opposed to trying to drive the ball on a regular basis. (I'm not exactly saying Ichiro here; more like a slightly more powerful version of Tony Gwynn.) Could he have hit for power in a different era?
Mickey Mantle
Case against: Short career, too many injuries. Never played 150 games in a season after turning 30.
Albert Pujols
Case against: Has yet to enter decline phase of his career, grounds into too many double plays, doesn't walk quite as much as OBP kings like Ruth, Williams, Bonds and Mantle. The big question here: Has he entered the decline phase of his career? The biggest red flag to me on his 2011 season is that his walk rate dropped significantly from previous seasons, as he was more aggressive at the plate (he swung at 44 percent of all pitches this season, compared to slightly less than 40 percent over the previous five seasons). This change of approach could signify a guy who recognized his bat speed has started to slow slightly and thus swung more often early in the count. Or it could simply be a situation of him getting more pitches to hit with Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday hitting behind him.
Willie Mays
Case against: Career on-base percentage is nearly 100 points below Ruth and Williams, lowering his career wRC+ to .157.
Ryan Braun is crazy good right now
October, 10, 2011
10/10/11
3:09
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Ryan Braun still has a lot of baseball left to play -- at least four games in a worst-case scenario -- but his blazing start to the postseason (11-for-22, five doubles, two home runs, seven runs and eight RBIs) has us thinking of great October runs. Since the addition of the wild card in 1996, here are eight other great postseason runs.
8. Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees (15 games, .345/.435/.707, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 14 R, 1.527 WPA*)
Williams carried the Yankees with five home runs through the first two rounds, and while he cooled off the in the World Series, his two-run homer in the eighth in Game 3 gave the Yankees a 4-1 lead, and he went 2-for-4 in the clinching Game 6, including an RBI single off Greg Maddux in the third inning.
* Win Probability Added, from Baseball-Reference.com. The change in win probability for the player's team given the score, situation and outcome of each plate appearance. A change of plus-1 indicates one win added.
7. Manny Ramirez, 2008 Dodgers (8 games, .520/.667/1.080, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 9 R, 11 BB, 0.741 WPA)
Ramirez was unstoppable in the 2008 playoffs in going 13-for-25, but it wasn't enough as the Dodgers lost to Phillies in five games in the National League Championship Series.
6. Albert Pujols, 2004 Cardinals (15 games, .414/.493/.793, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 15 R, 1.302 WPA)
Pujols went 5-for-9 with four runs, a home run and three RBIs as the Cardinals beat the Astros in the final two games of the NLCS. And don't blame him for the World Series loss to Boston: He hit .333 (although he failed to drive in a run).
5. Troy Glaus, 2002 Angels (16 games, .344/.420/.770, 7 HR, 13 RBI, 14 R, 1.065 WPA)
He hit three home runs against the Yankees in the American League Division Series, hit .316 in the ALCS and won World Series MVP honors by hitting .385 with three home runs and eight RBIs. His two-run double in the eighth inning of Game 6 gave the Angels a 6-5 lead.
4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees (15 games, .365/.500/.808, 5 2B, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 15 R, 1.696 WPA)
For one postseason, A-Rod put it all together. He drove in six runs in each round, drew 12 walks and delivered clutch hits, most notably his two-run homer off Joe Nathan in the bottom of the ninth that tied Game 2 of the division series (a game the Yankees won in the 12th) and his go-ahead double with two outs in the ninth off Brad Lidge in Game 4 of the World Series.
3. Carlos Beltran, 2004 Astros (12 games, .435/.536/1.022, 8 HR, 14 RBI, 21 R, 6 SB, 1.041 WPA)
Amazingly, Beltran holds the record for most runs scored in a single postseason, even though the Astros didn't reach the World Series. He hit four home runs in the division series and four more in the NLCS, made several outstanding catches in center field, drew nine walks ... and went 0-for-3 in a Game 7 loss to the Cardinals (Mets fans nod their heads).
2. Barry Bonds, 2002 Giants (17 games, .356/.581/.978, 8 HR 16 RBI, 18 R, 27 BB, 1.202 WPA)
Bonds had been a .196 hitter with just one home run in 27 previous postseason games entering 2002. He led the Giants to the seventh game of the World Series with a monster effort that included 13 intentional walks. I think his home run off Troy Percival in Game 2 just landed two weeks ago. He went 1-for-3 with a walk in Game 7 of the World Series, but the Giants lost 4-1.
1. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox (14 games, .400/.515/.764, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 13 R, 13 BB, 1.865 WPA)
First, he hit a series-winning home run in the bottom of the 10th inning in the ALDS against the Angels. He had a walk-off home run to win Game 4 of the ALCS. In Game 5, he hit a home run in the eighth inning as the Red Sox scored twice to tie it, then delivered the game-winning hit with two outs in the 12th. In Game 7, he hit a two-run bomb in the top of the first. And he hit .308 with four RBIs in a sweep of the Cardinals in the World Series. His 19 RBIs are tied with Sandy Alomar of the 1997 Indians and Scott Spiezio of the 2002 Angels for most in a single postseason.
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AP Photo/David J. PhillipBrewers left fielder Ryan Braun is on fire in the 2011 postseason.
AP Photo/David J. PhillipBrewers left fielder Ryan Braun is on fire in the 2011 postseason.Williams carried the Yankees with five home runs through the first two rounds, and while he cooled off the in the World Series, his two-run homer in the eighth in Game 3 gave the Yankees a 4-1 lead, and he went 2-for-4 in the clinching Game 6, including an RBI single off Greg Maddux in the third inning.
* Win Probability Added, from Baseball-Reference.com. The change in win probability for the player's team given the score, situation and outcome of each plate appearance. A change of plus-1 indicates one win added.
7. Manny Ramirez, 2008 Dodgers (8 games, .520/.667/1.080, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 9 R, 11 BB, 0.741 WPA)
Ramirez was unstoppable in the 2008 playoffs in going 13-for-25, but it wasn't enough as the Dodgers lost to Phillies in five games in the National League Championship Series.
6. Albert Pujols, 2004 Cardinals (15 games, .414/.493/.793, 6 HR, 14 RBI, 15 R, 1.302 WPA)
Pujols went 5-for-9 with four runs, a home run and three RBIs as the Cardinals beat the Astros in the final two games of the NLCS. And don't blame him for the World Series loss to Boston: He hit .333 (although he failed to drive in a run).
5. Troy Glaus, 2002 Angels (16 games, .344/.420/.770, 7 HR, 13 RBI, 14 R, 1.065 WPA)
He hit three home runs against the Yankees in the American League Division Series, hit .316 in the ALCS and won World Series MVP honors by hitting .385 with three home runs and eight RBIs. His two-run double in the eighth inning of Game 6 gave the Angels a 6-5 lead.
4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees (15 games, .365/.500/.808, 5 2B, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 15 R, 1.696 WPA)
For one postseason, A-Rod put it all together. He drove in six runs in each round, drew 12 walks and delivered clutch hits, most notably his two-run homer off Joe Nathan in the bottom of the ninth that tied Game 2 of the division series (a game the Yankees won in the 12th) and his go-ahead double with two outs in the ninth off Brad Lidge in Game 4 of the World Series.
3. Carlos Beltran, 2004 Astros (12 games, .435/.536/1.022, 8 HR, 14 RBI, 21 R, 6 SB, 1.041 WPA)
Amazingly, Beltran holds the record for most runs scored in a single postseason, even though the Astros didn't reach the World Series. He hit four home runs in the division series and four more in the NLCS, made several outstanding catches in center field, drew nine walks ... and went 0-for-3 in a Game 7 loss to the Cardinals (Mets fans nod their heads).
2. Barry Bonds, 2002 Giants (17 games, .356/.581/.978, 8 HR 16 RBI, 18 R, 27 BB, 1.202 WPA)
Bonds had been a .196 hitter with just one home run in 27 previous postseason games entering 2002. He led the Giants to the seventh game of the World Series with a monster effort that included 13 intentional walks. I think his home run off Troy Percival in Game 2 just landed two weeks ago. He went 1-for-3 with a walk in Game 7 of the World Series, but the Giants lost 4-1.
1. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox (14 games, .400/.515/.764, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 13 R, 13 BB, 1.865 WPA)
First, he hit a series-winning home run in the bottom of the 10th inning in the ALDS against the Angels. He had a walk-off home run to win Game 4 of the ALCS. In Game 5, he hit a home run in the eighth inning as the Red Sox scored twice to tie it, then delivered the game-winning hit with two outs in the 12th. In Game 7, he hit a two-run bomb in the top of the first. And he hit .308 with four RBIs in a sweep of the Cardinals in the World Series. His 19 RBIs are tied with Sandy Alomar of the 1997 Indians and Scott Spiezio of the 2002 Angels for most in a single postseason.
Manny Rubio/US PresswireHank Aaron hit 755 home runs ... but how many of those came hitting cleanup?Barry Bonds
Career plate appearances: 12,606
PAs batting cleanup: 3,599 (28.5 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 242
Bonds received his most PAs in the three-hole, but also came to the plate more than 2,000 times in the leadoff spot (where he hit early in his career) and the five-hole. Bonds hit fifth in his first MVP season in 1990, as Andy Van Slyke hit third and Bobby Bonilla fourth. When Bonilla left after the 1991 season, Bonds moved into the cleanup spot. Inexplicably, Dusty Baker also hit Bonds fifth during his monster 1993 season when he hit .336/.458/.677. Will Clark and Matt Williams manned the three- and four-holes, but if Bonds had hit third or fourth (or even second) -- and thus received more plate appearances, the Giants may have picked up that one extra win they needed to tie the Braves that year.
Hank Aaron
Career plate appearances: 13,941
PAs batting cleanup: 5,126 (36.7 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 261
Fred Haney, Aaron's manager in Milwaukee, talked about moving Aaron into the leadoff spot since he would get more plate appearances, but he never actually did it. Aaron had nearly 8,000 PAs hitting third.
Babe Ruth
Career plate appearances: 10,617
PAs batting cleanup: 2,012 (19 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 144
We're missing some data from early in his career, when he was mostly a pitcher, but Ruth wore No. 3 for a reason -- that's where he batted most often, in front of Lou Gehrig. But if the Yankees had worn numbers in 1920 -- his first season with the club -- Ruth would have worn No. 4.
Willie Mays
Career plate appearances: 12,493
PAs batting cleanup: 1,849 (14.8 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 111
Mays started 66 games in his career in the leadoff spot. Most of these came late in his career -- 32 times in 1972 and 20 times in 1973, his final season. It actually made since in 1972, when he posted a .400 on-base percentage.
Ken Griffey Jr.
Career plate appearances: 11,304
PAs batting cleanup: 984 (8.7 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 56
Griffey batted third nearly his entire career.
Alex Rodriguez
Career plate appearances: 10,550
PAs batting cleanup: 4,173 (40 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 243
Did the '96 Mariners have the best 2-3-4 single-season combo of all time? Hitting second, A-Rod hit .358/.414/.631, Griffey hit .303/.392/.628 and Edgar Martinez hit .327/.464/.595.
Sammy Sosa
Career plate appearances: 9,896
PAs batting cleanup: 3,319 (33.5 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 215
Sosa received a few more PAs hitting third than cleanup.
Jim Thome
Career plate appearances: 10,220
PAs batting cleanup: 2,998 (29.9 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 202
Thome has received more than 2,000 PAs in the third, fourth and fifth spots. On the 1995 Cleveland team that reached the World Series, Thome usually hit sixth -- and despite hitting .314/.438/.558 that year, began 1996 hitting seventh!
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Links: Rangers unofficially ban the wave
July, 29, 2011
7/29/11
5:45
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
I'm from Seattle, where the wave was invented. It was a fun thing in the '80s at Seahawks games, when the decibel level in the Kingdome would reach near-unbearable levels. But at baseball games? In 2011? I was at a Red Sox game last night when the crowd in the right-field bleachers attempted to get a wave going. It never made its around the ballpark, despite repeated efforts.
Anyway, Page 2 has a story saying the Texas Rangers have sort of unofficially banned the wave. Check out that story and a few other links:
Anyway, Page 2 has a story saying the Texas Rangers have sort of unofficially banned the wave. Check out that story and a few other links:
- Rory Paap of Bay City Ball has a few letters to Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy, beginning with one about Brandon Belt and Aubrey Huff.
- Speaking of the Giants -- or ex-Giants -- Clay Davenport has a statistical study of Zack Wheeler and comes up with a list of statistically comparable minor league pitchers. If you're a Mets fan, at least one name on the list is good news.
- The Common Man lists the five greatest deals in deadline history.
- Colin Wyers of ESPN Insider and Baseball Prospectus reports that deadline deals rarely make a difference in deciding playoff teams.
- Stephanie Liscio writes about the Indians picking up Kosuke Fukudome.
- The Braves have a big problem and it has to do with the letters "O," "B" and "P."
- Paul Sporer breaks down whether Jason Kubel and/or Kevin Slowey could help the Pirates.
- Snakes on Jefferson has five trades that make sense for the Diamondbacks.
- Will the Mariners do anything? (I mean, other than lose more games.)
- What if Barry Bonds had retired in 1998? Joe Posnanski crunches some numbers and makes an interesting argument.
- Mark Simon met some fellow Mets fans in Cincinnati.
- USA Today's Erik Brady with a touching story of the man who died in his house from the airline crash two years ago in Buffalo. Doug Wielinski had a huge sports memorabilia collection, much of it lost in the accident.
- Had lunch with old friend with Dan Shanoff today. Be sure to check out his website, Quickish, a valuable compilation of stories, tweets, links and other recommendations.
Who did 600-homer guys hit best off?
July, 19, 2011
7/19/11
11:15
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
With Jim Thome approaching 600 career home runs, our Stats & Information group sent out a packet of stats on Thome. One fun stat that stood out to me: Thome went 12-for-27 with NINE home runs off Rick Reed in his career. I think it's safe to say that Thome owned Reed; those are the most home runs he's hit off one pitcher.
So who did the other members of the 600 home runs club own? Let's take a look.
Barry Bonds
Bonds hit nine home runs apiece off Greg Maddux and John Smoltz, but along with Tom Glavine, he faced them the most in his career. Bonds faced five pitchers at least 100 times in his career ... he did pretty well against four of them:
Maddux: 157 PAs, 9 HR, .265/.376/.508, 24 BB, 16 SO
Glavine: 120 PAs, 5 HR, .309/.425/.567, 19 BB, 11 SO
Smoltz: 108 PAs, 9 HR, .275/.463/.675, 28 BB, 16 SO
Curt Schilling: 100 PAs, 8 HR, .263/.410/.638, 19 BB, 13 SO
Dennis Martinez: 100 PAs, 1 HR, .228/.290/.337, 8 BB, 8 SO
What's amazing is that he had more walks than strikeouts against Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Schilling. These are four future Hall of Famers, three of whom possessed terrific control, and Bonds still drew his walks off them.
Bonds also owned Andy Ashby (.377/.514/.849, 7 HRs in 53 ABs) and Pete Schourek (.308/.420/.897, 7 HRs in 39 ABs) among others. The pitcher who faced Bonds the most times without allowing a home run: Rick Sutcliffe. Bonds hit .239/.280/.326 off Sutcliffe in 51 PAs. Not many pitchers owned Bonds. Tim Belcher held him to a .143 average and David Cone held him to a .175 average.
Hank Aaron
Aaron hit 17 home runs off Don Drysdale in 221 at-bats (249 PAs), fashioning a .267/.345/.579 line off Big D. A guy Aaron owned: Don Gullett. He hit .462/.583/1.316 off him with seven home runs in 26 at-bats. Here's Aaron against some of the top pitchers of his era besides Drysdale:
Bob Gibson: 180 PAs, 8 HR, .215/.278/.423, 15 BB, 32 SO
Juan Marichal: 161 PAs, 8 HR, .288/.348/.473, 13 BB, 23 SO
Robin Roberts: 158 PAs, 9 HR, .291/.335/.554, 10 BB, 13 SO
Sandy Koufax: 130 PAs, 7 HR, .362/.431/.647, 14 BB, 12 SO
Tom Seaver: 93 PAs, 5 HR, .220/.290/.476, 9 BB, 14 SO
A pitcher who owned Aaron: Glen Hobbie. Aaron hit .213 with one home run in 80 at-bats off Hobbie, a nondescript righty who went 62-81 in his career, primarily with the Cubs. Aaron hit .148 with no home runs and one walk in 48 at-bats against Jim Brosnan, the pitcher he faced the most without hitting a home run.
Babe Ruth
We don't have complete hitter-pitcher breakdowns for Ruth, but he hit 17 home runs off Rube Walberg, a left-handed pitcher with the Philadelphia A's, and 14 off Hooks Dauss, a Tigers right-hander. Here's Ruth complete home run log.
Willie Mays
Mays homered 18 times off Warren Spahn -- most memorably a 16th-inning home run that gave Juan Marichal a 1-0 victory over Spahn in 1963, both pitchers going the distance -- but he also faced him the most times, with 253 PAs. He hit .305/.368/.587 off Spahn.
He owned Bob Sadowski in a small sample, going 8-for-15 with five home runs and four walks, and Brooklyn Dodgers reliever Clem Labine in a larger sample, hitting .475/.516/.966 with seven home runs in 59 at-bats. He also slugged .762 off the Dodgers' Johnny Podres. In fact, you could argue that Mays owned Ebbets Field: In 56 games there, he hit .355 with 28 home runs, slugging .786.
Mays versus a few top pitchers:
Don Drysdale: 243 PAs, 13 HR, .330/.374/.604, 14 BB, 29 SO
Robin Roberts: 184 PAs, 4 HR, .312/.376/.476, 14 BB, 21 SO
Sandy Koufax: 122 PAs, 5 HR, .278/.426/.536, 25 BB, 20 SO
Bob Gibson: 108 PAs, 3 HR, .196/.315/.304, 16 BB, 30 SO
Jim Bunning: 95 PAs, 2 HR, .213/.255/.348, 4 BB, 17 SO
While Gibson and Bunning fared pretty well against Mays, Willie also struggled against Jim Maloney (.172, 1 HR in 58 ABs), Steve Carlton (.177, 2 HR in 62 ABs) and Tommie Sisk, the guy he faced the most without homering -- none in 45 at-bats. In fact, he never had an extra-base hit off Sisk, a middling starter/reliever with the Pirates in the mid-'60s.
Ken Griffey Jr.
Modern players don't face the same pitchers as often as hitters in Willie Mays' era, and Griffey of course changed leagues midway through his career. He faced just one pitcher 100 times in his career -- Roger Clemens. He hit .311/.392/.589 off Clemens, with six home runs. Only David Wells with eight allowed more home runs to Griffey. Junior went 7-for-14 with five home runs off Livan Hernandez and 6-for-16 with five home runs off Andy Benes.
Griffey struggled against Chuck Finley (.164, 2 HR, 5 BB, 18 SO in 73 ABs), Kevin Appier (.186 in 59 ABs) and Mike Mussina (.143 in 56 ABs). He faced Todd Stottlemyre 40 times without homering off him, although he did hit .294.
Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod has homered eight times off four pitchers: Tim Wakefield, David Wells, Ramon Ortiz and Bartolo Colon. Of those four, he feasted the most off his current teammate, hitting .431/.456/1.059 off Colon in 57 PAs. He went 12-for-23 with five homers off Esteban Loaiza and 10-for-21 with five home runs off Kenny Rogers. He's faced Matt Guerrier eight times and has gone 5-for-7 with four homers and a double. And poor Wil Ledezma: A-Rod went 4-for-6 off him, all home runs. Joel Pineiro, on the other hand, owns Rodriguez, holding him to a .128 average with no home runs in 39 at-bats.
Sammy Sosa
Sosa hit seven home runs off Curt Schilling and Jose Lima, hitting over .300 against both pitchers. He destroyed David Williams, going 8-for-13 with six home runs and nine walks off him. He went 6-for-14 with five home runs off Kevin Jarvis. He hit .405/.488/.838 off Ben Sheets in 43 PAs and .481/.533/.963 off Orel Hershiser in 30 PAs. Bonds may have owned Smoltz, but Smoltz owned Sosa: Sammy went .143/.200/.214 off Smoltz, and never drove in a run in 45 PAs. Sosa also hit .143 off Jason Schmidt and .128 off Dave Burba.
(Date from Baseball-Reference.com.)
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
So who did the other members of the 600 home runs club own? Let's take a look.
Barry Bonds
Bonds hit nine home runs apiece off Greg Maddux and John Smoltz, but along with Tom Glavine, he faced them the most in his career. Bonds faced five pitchers at least 100 times in his career ... he did pretty well against four of them:
Maddux: 157 PAs, 9 HR, .265/.376/.508, 24 BB, 16 SO
Glavine: 120 PAs, 5 HR, .309/.425/.567, 19 BB, 11 SO
Smoltz: 108 PAs, 9 HR, .275/.463/.675, 28 BB, 16 SO
Curt Schilling: 100 PAs, 8 HR, .263/.410/.638, 19 BB, 13 SO
Dennis Martinez: 100 PAs, 1 HR, .228/.290/.337, 8 BB, 8 SO
What's amazing is that he had more walks than strikeouts against Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Schilling. These are four future Hall of Famers, three of whom possessed terrific control, and Bonds still drew his walks off them.
Bonds also owned Andy Ashby (.377/.514/.849, 7 HRs in 53 ABs) and Pete Schourek (.308/.420/.897, 7 HRs in 39 ABs) among others. The pitcher who faced Bonds the most times without allowing a home run: Rick Sutcliffe. Bonds hit .239/.280/.326 off Sutcliffe in 51 PAs. Not many pitchers owned Bonds. Tim Belcher held him to a .143 average and David Cone held him to a .175 average.
Hank Aaron
Aaron hit 17 home runs off Don Drysdale in 221 at-bats (249 PAs), fashioning a .267/.345/.579 line off Big D. A guy Aaron owned: Don Gullett. He hit .462/.583/1.316 off him with seven home runs in 26 at-bats. Here's Aaron against some of the top pitchers of his era besides Drysdale:
Bob Gibson: 180 PAs, 8 HR, .215/.278/.423, 15 BB, 32 SO
Juan Marichal: 161 PAs, 8 HR, .288/.348/.473, 13 BB, 23 SO
Robin Roberts: 158 PAs, 9 HR, .291/.335/.554, 10 BB, 13 SO
Sandy Koufax: 130 PAs, 7 HR, .362/.431/.647, 14 BB, 12 SO
Tom Seaver: 93 PAs, 5 HR, .220/.290/.476, 9 BB, 14 SO
A pitcher who owned Aaron: Glen Hobbie. Aaron hit .213 with one home run in 80 at-bats off Hobbie, a nondescript righty who went 62-81 in his career, primarily with the Cubs. Aaron hit .148 with no home runs and one walk in 48 at-bats against Jim Brosnan, the pitcher he faced the most without hitting a home run.
Babe Ruth
We don't have complete hitter-pitcher breakdowns for Ruth, but he hit 17 home runs off Rube Walberg, a left-handed pitcher with the Philadelphia A's, and 14 off Hooks Dauss, a Tigers right-hander. Here's Ruth complete home run log.
Willie Mays
Mays homered 18 times off Warren Spahn -- most memorably a 16th-inning home run that gave Juan Marichal a 1-0 victory over Spahn in 1963, both pitchers going the distance -- but he also faced him the most times, with 253 PAs. He hit .305/.368/.587 off Spahn.
He owned Bob Sadowski in a small sample, going 8-for-15 with five home runs and four walks, and Brooklyn Dodgers reliever Clem Labine in a larger sample, hitting .475/.516/.966 with seven home runs in 59 at-bats. He also slugged .762 off the Dodgers' Johnny Podres. In fact, you could argue that Mays owned Ebbets Field: In 56 games there, he hit .355 with 28 home runs, slugging .786.
Mays versus a few top pitchers:
Don Drysdale: 243 PAs, 13 HR, .330/.374/.604, 14 BB, 29 SO
Robin Roberts: 184 PAs, 4 HR, .312/.376/.476, 14 BB, 21 SO
Sandy Koufax: 122 PAs, 5 HR, .278/.426/.536, 25 BB, 20 SO
Bob Gibson: 108 PAs, 3 HR, .196/.315/.304, 16 BB, 30 SO
Jim Bunning: 95 PAs, 2 HR, .213/.255/.348, 4 BB, 17 SO
While Gibson and Bunning fared pretty well against Mays, Willie also struggled against Jim Maloney (.172, 1 HR in 58 ABs), Steve Carlton (.177, 2 HR in 62 ABs) and Tommie Sisk, the guy he faced the most without homering -- none in 45 at-bats. In fact, he never had an extra-base hit off Sisk, a middling starter/reliever with the Pirates in the mid-'60s.
Ken Griffey Jr.
Modern players don't face the same pitchers as often as hitters in Willie Mays' era, and Griffey of course changed leagues midway through his career. He faced just one pitcher 100 times in his career -- Roger Clemens. He hit .311/.392/.589 off Clemens, with six home runs. Only David Wells with eight allowed more home runs to Griffey. Junior went 7-for-14 with five home runs off Livan Hernandez and 6-for-16 with five home runs off Andy Benes.
Griffey struggled against Chuck Finley (.164, 2 HR, 5 BB, 18 SO in 73 ABs), Kevin Appier (.186 in 59 ABs) and Mike Mussina (.143 in 56 ABs). He faced Todd Stottlemyre 40 times without homering off him, although he did hit .294.
Alex Rodriguez
A-Rod has homered eight times off four pitchers: Tim Wakefield, David Wells, Ramon Ortiz and Bartolo Colon. Of those four, he feasted the most off his current teammate, hitting .431/.456/1.059 off Colon in 57 PAs. He went 12-for-23 with five homers off Esteban Loaiza and 10-for-21 with five home runs off Kenny Rogers. He's faced Matt Guerrier eight times and has gone 5-for-7 with four homers and a double. And poor Wil Ledezma: A-Rod went 4-for-6 off him, all home runs. Joel Pineiro, on the other hand, owns Rodriguez, holding him to a .128 average with no home runs in 39 at-bats.
Sammy Sosa
Sosa hit seven home runs off Curt Schilling and Jose Lima, hitting over .300 against both pitchers. He destroyed David Williams, going 8-for-13 with six home runs and nine walks off him. He went 6-for-14 with five home runs off Kevin Jarvis. He hit .405/.488/.838 off Ben Sheets in 43 PAs and .481/.533/.963 off Orel Hershiser in 30 PAs. Bonds may have owned Smoltz, but Smoltz owned Sosa: Sammy went .143/.200/.214 off Smoltz, and never drove in a run in 45 PAs. Sosa also hit .143 off Jason Schmidt and .128 off Dave Burba.
(Date from Baseball-Reference.com.)
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Time to admire Jose Bautista's greatness
May, 18, 2011
5/18/11
12:56
PM ET
By
Steve Berthiaume | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Jim MoneJose Bautista leads the majors with 16 home runs and a .370 batting average.Is he taking steroids?
It's that last question that's our greatest fear and, let's be honest, a main reason Bautista's spectacular performance has yet to be given its due. We're afraid he's using PEDs, and that's an issue we're all tired of dealing with. Our energy and attention spans regarding the steroid era are exhausted; we're Barry Bondsed out. Bonds, however, might wind up being the name that surfaces here. Look at the similarities between Bonds' numbers through the Giants' first 40 games of 2001, when Bonds hit 73 home runs at the age of 36, and Bautista's numbers at age 30, through the Blue Jays' first 40 games of 2011.
Bautista is hitting home runs at a historic pace and he's doing it in what we like to refer to as the post-steroids era. So we watch and hold our collective breath, hoping we're not being lured into enthusiasm for a home run chase that degenerates into something like the joyless march to the inevitable through which we all slogged in 2007, when Bonds finished his career with 762 home runs.
J.P. Ricciardi, now a special assistant to Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, was the Blue Jays' GM who brought Bautista to Toronto. "The commissioner has done a great job of cleaning up the game," he told me. "There is definitely testing going on. You don't think this guy's getting tested? Obviously he's passed every test. Everybody's skeptical about certain things. This guy has had to have gone through the whole process and nothing has come up on this guy. He's being tested like everyone else. I never thought he was a steroid guy and I don't believe he is."
Since May 15, 2010, Bautista has hit 63 home runs -- 22 more than Albert Pujols' next-best total of 41. Remarkable considering that in his first 1800 career at-bats, Bautista hit just 60 home runs. Born in the Dominican Republic, Bautista attended junior college in the U.S. and speaks fluent English with no trace of a language barrier. Selected by the Pirates in the 20th round of the 2000 draft, he became a Rule 5 pick by the Orioles, but was later waived. "He never really got to play," Ricciardi said. "Those guys get passed along." During a two-month span of 2004, Bautista passed through the Orioles, Devil Rays, Royals, Mets and back to the Pirates. With Pittsburgh from 2006 through 2008, he never hit more than 16 home runs in a season. In August of 2008, he was sent to Toronto for a player to be named. "Any team could have had him," Ricciardi said. "He was on waivers. We thought he might be a super-utility guy and now he's recreated himself."
Bautista's evolution has produced a .708 slugging percentage over the last calendar year, more than 100 points higher than reigning NL MVP Joey Votto, and a 1.129 OPS that is the best in the majors. I asked Ricciardi what suddenly changed. "He's the Karate Kid -- you watch him, he's wax on wax off," he said. "He would take batting practice and absolutely put on a show, hit 10 into the second deck, high and far and deep -- and then in the game, he'd get very rotational. His timing on his front foot wouldn't be right. He'd either be late and try and rush everything and make up for it with his body instead of making his hands work. When he was early, his front side would come with him and he would never get to his power because he'd always be drifting toward the pitcher. Now he's timing on his front foot and hitting down through the ball and not being rotational."
A generic team now dressed in odd, denim-colored uniforms and black hats, the Blue Jays seem eons removed from Joe Carter's jubilant trip around the World Series bases. Given Toronto's lot in the AL East, competing against more lucrative franchises like the Yankees and Red Sox, some fans might believe the Blue Jays will never see the postseason again in their lifetimes. Without consistent national television exposure, it's easier to rationalize overlooking Bautista's place in the game. "If he was playing in New York or Boston, forget it," Ricciardi said. "They'd be erecting statues of him. I love the kid. I honestly love the kid. He's a great person and all the things that are happening to him couldn't happen to a better guy."
Fifty-four home runs last season was enough to say "Wow," but not enough to force historic comparisons or stare the PED issue square in the face again. The consensus reaction to Bonds' perjury trial this year might best be described as our long national indifference. I hope we don't remain indifferent to Bautista, or to the Blue Jays for that matter. Bautista is the best hitter in baseball and, eventually, we have to relax and trust what we're seeing again.
Follow Steve on Twitter: @SBerthiaumeESPN.
Hug it out: Great hugs in baseball history
May, 12, 2011
5/12/11
6:02
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
By now you've probably seen the hug heard 'round the world between Albert Pujols and Cubs general manager Jim Hendry. However, Major League Baseball has rules against tampering with free agents -- and also frowns upon fraternization between opposing clubs. Frankly, I don't quite get the uproar. After all, baseball has a long and storied history of hugging.
Albert Pujols and Barack Obama
AP Photo/Morry GashSorry, Cubs fans, you really think Pujols wants to sign with the Cubs? Looks like he may be a White Sox fan to me.
Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols
AP Photo/Dino VournasThat's Pujols and the all-time home run king embracing. Maybe Barry told him about the time he left small-market Pittsburgh for a bigger market in San Francisco. At least, let's hope that's all they talked about.
Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez
AP Photo/Julie JacobsonWho says The Captain and A-Rod don't get along? They look like best friends to me.
Joe Torre and Manny Ramirez
Kevork Djansezian/Getty ImagesTorre certainly symbolized the new breed of manager. Can you imagine Earl Weaver or Billy Martin hugging their players?
David Ortiz and Bernie Williams
Jim McIsaac/Getty ImagesPersonally, I find the idea of Red Sox and Yankees hugging revolting. Why didn't MLB suspend both of these guys?
Marisa Miller and Lou Seal
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesIf you ask me, the Giants' mascot got a little too close to the supermodel. Not that we blame him.
Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa
AFP/Getty ImagesWhatever happened to these guys?
Reggie Jackson and Billy Martin
AP PhotoAlmost a hug. C'mon, Billy, you can do it. There you go, I see a little smile ...
Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig
AP PhotoBefore Babe Ruth, there were no hugs. He invented the baseball hug. He had the biggest hugs of all time. Nobody hugged 'em like the Babe. He once called his own hug.
Anna Kournikova and Brian Giles
AP Photo/Denis PoroyThe highlight of Giles' career, other than playing with the Pirates.
Chicago Cubs
AP Photo/Charles CherneyHow are the Cubs ever going to win with an attitude like that? This is serious business, not a playground.
Hugs for everyone!
AP Photo/Ron FrehmThey don't call Philadelphia the City of Brotherly Love for nothing. They even love the Mets!
Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot.
Albert Pujols and Barack Obama
AP Photo/Morry GashSorry, Cubs fans, you really think Pujols wants to sign with the Cubs? Looks like he may be a White Sox fan to me.
AP Photo/Dino VournasThat's Pujols and the all-time home run king embracing. Maybe Barry told him about the time he left small-market Pittsburgh for a bigger market in San Francisco. At least, let's hope that's all they talked about.
AP Photo/Julie JacobsonWho says The Captain and A-Rod don't get along? They look like best friends to me.
Kevork Djansezian/Getty ImagesTorre certainly symbolized the new breed of manager. Can you imagine Earl Weaver or Billy Martin hugging their players?
Jim McIsaac/Getty ImagesPersonally, I find the idea of Red Sox and Yankees hugging revolting. Why didn't MLB suspend both of these guys?
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesIf you ask me, the Giants' mascot got a little too close to the supermodel. Not that we blame him.
AFP/Getty ImagesWhatever happened to these guys?
AP PhotoAlmost a hug. C'mon, Billy, you can do it. There you go, I see a little smile ...
AP PhotoBefore Babe Ruth, there were no hugs. He invented the baseball hug. He had the biggest hugs of all time. Nobody hugged 'em like the Babe. He once called his own hug.
AP Photo/Denis PoroyThe highlight of Giles' career, other than playing with the Pirates.
AP Photo/Charles CherneyHow are the Cubs ever going to win with an attitude like that? This is serious business, not a playground.
AP Photo/Ron FrehmThey don't call Philadelphia the City of Brotherly Love for nothing. They even love the Mets!
