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Forget Albert Pujols. There's another reason to watch the Los Angeles Angels, and his name is Mike Trout.

For all the hype Bryce Harper has rightfully received, it's time to start giving a few headlines to another rookie phenom, time to give the Left Coast a little love. Trout went 3-for-4 with a home run, a stolen base and three runs scored in the Angels' 4-0 victory over the A's on Tuesday. In 15 games since getting recalled from Triple-A, Trout is hitting .316 BA/.369 OBP/.561 SLG, reminding Angels fans what an All-Star batting line is supposed to look like and why a homegrown, five-tool rookie with young, fresh legs is a player to get more pumped about watching than a money-for-hire Hall of Famer you purchased on the free-agent market.

So while we wait for Pujols to get untracked, maybe the Angels' answer to their offensive prayers -- they've been shut out an MLB-leading eight times -- is a kid who doesn't turn 21 until August.

Against Bartolo Colon, he took a middle-in fastball and crushed it just to the right of center field, off the back wall behind the center-field fence in Anaheim. There aren't many leadoff hitters who can mash a pitch with that type of authority. The other day, he showcased his quick, compact swing, yanking a 2-1 fastball from Yu Darvish well over the left-field fence in Texas. His first home run came on a 1-0 fastball off Toronto's Kyle Drabek, a 93 mph heater low in the zone that Trout hit to left-center.

I think those returns are pretty clear: Trout can do some serious damage when he gets into a fastball count.

Trout is even faster than Harper and much more advanced defensively (although he lacks Harper's arm). And for all the awe for Harper's quick rise, Trout is only a year older. Like Harper, he debuted in the majors while still 19 years old. Like the previous two 19-year-old center-field phenoms -- a couple of guys named Andruw Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. -- Trout has that broad range of skills that should make him a franchise player as he matures.

My favorite aspect of the Trout/Harper comparisons is that the two will always be linked, even though they play in different leagues and cities three time zones apart. Just like we debated Rodriguez and Jeter and Garciaparra back in the late '90s, or like New Yorkers debated Mays and Mantle and Snider in the 1950s, I'm sure we'll be endlessly debating Trout and Harper for years to come.

The other highly rated prospects entering the season were Tampa Bay Rays lefty Matt Moore and Mariners catcher/designed hitter Jesus Montero. They aren't off to impressive starts like Trout and Harper, but let's take a closer look at them as well.

Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
I'll make this one brief. We've seen Harper's lightning-quick bat speed and raw power with his home runs in back-to-back games -- one blast to dead center and the one Tuesday to deep right-center. We've also seen a few misplays in the field, however, from losing a ball in the darkened skies Sunday to dropping a fly ball Monday.

And of course, we've seen the rocket arm and the top-grade athleticism. There's no reason to believe he can't be a superb fielder with more experience. I think the biggest positive is his strikeout rate hasn't been excessive, with 11 in 60 at-bats. Along with his ability to hit left-handers, that was the big concern of his premature call-up. While there were initial thoughts that his time in the majors would be temporary, his play and the Nationals' injuries mean he's here to stay.

Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
When I polled the SweetSpot network bloggers before the season for their American League rookie of the year predictions, Moore came out on top, outpointing Darvish. I wasn't quite as optimistic, as I believed Moore's spectacular playoff performance against the Rangers raised expectations to unrealistic levels. The only rookie starter since 2000 to pitch at least 162 innings with an ERA less than 3.00 was Jeremy Hellickson, and his flukey .224 average on balls in play had something to do with that. With Moore, I still wanted to see a guy who had the consistent command needed to dominate in the majors.

That's been a big issue with him so far, as he's walked 22 batters in 39 innings, a rate of 5.1 walks per nine. As Justin Havens of ESPN Stats & Info points out, Moore also has struggled with runners on base:


Justin also writes that Moore "continues to leave entirely too many balls up in the zone, ranking sixth out of 115 pitchers in percentage of total pitches 'up' in the zone." This ties into Moore having the third-highest walk rate (12.4 percent) among starters, behind only Ubaldo Jimenez and Drabek, and six home runs allowed in seven starts.

There are no major issues here, other than pointing out that most young pitchers do go through a learning curve. Hellickson -- who doesn't have the raw stuff Moore owns -- set the bar high with his own rookie campaign, but that type of season is the exception.

Jesus Montero, Seattle Mariners
It's also a mixed bag so far with Montero. With five home runs, he's displayed the power stroke scouts projected. His overall batting line of .256/.285/.411, however, isn't much to get excited about, as the occasional long ball is marred by a poor 29/6 strikeout/walk ratio.

There are a few things going on here. He has expanded the strike zone, swinging at 36.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That's not necessarily a career-killing attribute (Josh Hamilton currently has the second-highest rate in the majors), but it's among the 30 worst percentages so far. The bigger problem is he isn't making contract on those pitches and certainly not good contact. He's swinging and missing at those pitches 56.6 percent of the time, which again places him among the 30 worst rates.

When you dig deeper into the numbers, it's pretty clear what's happening. Check out the heat maps below. On the left, Montero against "hard" stuff, and on the right, Montero against "soft" stuff.



Against "hard" stuff, he's hitting .362 (25-for-69) with four home runs and five doubles. Against "soft" stuff, he's hitting .133 (8-for-60) with one home run and no doubles. So if pitchers get ahead in the count, they can get Montero to chase the offspeed stuff out of the zone.

A final issue is Montero's ability -- or lack of it -- to pull the ball. While he's known for his opposite-field power, I'm not sure you can live off that trait alone. Of Montero's five home runs, two have gone to right-center, one to center and two to left-center. His hit chart is littered with fly balls to right field and the right-field line. Frankly, he just hasn't shown the ability to pull the ball with any authority. To me, this reads like a guy who can be jammed inside and will chase pitches outside. Look, the pitch recognition should improve, but he's going to have to figure out how to do more damage to all fields.

The injury to Miguel Olivo also forced the Mariners to play Montero more regularly behind the plate. I haven't seen the defensive butcher advertised, but he's clearly a work in progress. A couple of starts ago, Kevin Millwood was constantly shaking him off. However, the two were on the same page in Millwood's win over the Yankees on Sunday. Opponents are 8-for-10 stealing bases off him.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

First base: Well, it was about time a slugger got off the schneid, especially at home, and especially after all the fuss made over his slow start. Naturally, we’re talking about Giancarlo Stanton. Who else could we be talking about? But after having to hear all of the complaints about park dimensions in the Marlins’ new discotheque, aquarium, entertainment complex, and less-than-ordinary baseball venue decorated in the electric boogalloo end of the color palette, the good news is that whatever its other distractions, Marlins Aquarium Park is not a venue that will forever defy Stanton’s fence-busting power. As for the unfortunate detail that he jacked an Earl Weaver special for three runs in the ninth inning down by seven off “why’s he here?” D-backs southpaw du jour Mike Zagurski, well, that’s for the accountants and the bitter few in the stands waiting to see it to quibble over.

Second base: What can you say about the toxic cleanup site found on the mound in Camden Yards after the A’s went China Syndrome and totally melted down in the bottom of the ninth against the Orioles? The O’s are newsworthy enough for their “yeah, we matter too” start, but c’mon. A’s manager Bob Melvin leaving Bartolo Colon out there in the ninth against the heart of the Orioles order when the Beefy One is just weeks shy of his 39th birthday seemed like carelessness at best. Maybe it was a case of mistaken identity ... for the second coming of Luis Tiant? Regardless, Colon was gassed, and once the Orioles lit a match, something was bound to combust, in this case, Grant Balfour.

Third base: Has anybody had a quieter great April than the Cubs’ Bryan LaHair? The journeyman hasn’t just gotten his first big break in the big leagues as a 29-year-old, he’s delivered the best first-month OPS of any first baseman in the majors (1.197). As good a prospect as Anthony Rizzo is and as good a career as you can expect him to have, LaHair’s making it easy for the Cubs to leave Rizzo in corn country while he makes the most of his first real opportunity. Is it really any surprise that a guy born on Guy Fawkes Day (that’s Nov. 5 for all of us from everywhere else but Great Britain) would explode once he was finally given the chance?

Home plate: The tweet of the night goes to Stephanie Liscio of It’s Pronounced ‘Lajaway’, when she noted:

Time to play "guess the subsequent roster move" with Damon joining the team Tuesday. I'll take "DFA of Jose Lopez" for $100!

— Stephanie Liscio (@stephanieliscio) April 30, 2012

There's something simple and comforting about watching David Price pitch. No trick pitches, no cutter or split-finger or sidearm slurve, nothing ornamental in his delivery, just rear back and sling that leather sphere with a high degree of velocity. He reminds me of how I imagine it was like watching Bob Gibson or Sandy Koufax or Don Drysdale, almost an old-school, 1960s approach: My stuff is good, you know what's coming, and you're not going to hit it.

No, nothing fancy with Mr. Price. In 2011, he threw his fastball 70 percent of the time. Among starting pitchers, only Justin Masterson and Bartolo Colon relied on old No.1 more often. Maybe we need a nickname for Price's heater. According to the "Dickson Baseball Dictionary," in the 1970s, an especially good fastball was referred to as a Linda Ronstadt Fastball -- for "Blue Bayou," her hit single of the time. That's what Price loves to do: Blow it by you.

Some fans thought Price had a disappointing 2011, maybe relying too much on his fastball, as his ERA rose from 2.72 in 2010 (when he finished second in the Cy Young voting) to 3.49. But that's focusing on the wrong number and ignoring other improvements he made: His strikeout rate increased, his walk rate decreased, he made more starts and pitched more innings.

It's that improvement, durability and moxie why I made Price my preseason Cy Young pick. Plus, there was the scary idea that he'd turn into more than just a power pitcher, that maybe like Gibson and Koufax learned, you can't rely just on your fastball, no matter how authoritative it is.

We saw this approach Tuesday, as Price delivered his second career shutout with a 5-0, five-hit blank job on the Angels. With the Angels stacking their lineup with nine right-handed hitters, Price expertly mixed his fastball with his changeup. He threw 29 changeups, and got a career-high 10 outs on at-bats ending with that pitch. He got ahead of 21 of 32 batters and the Angels were 0-for-13 when Price got to two strikes. That's the combination hitters will fear: Price using his 95-mph heater to get ahead of hitters and then putting them away with a changeup or other offspeed pitch. His first-strike percentage Tuesday was 65.6, an increase over the 55.1 percent rate in his first three starts and more in line with his 60 percent rate of 2011. (Thanks to Dan Braunstein of ESPN Stats & Information for the numbers.)

"Great command of all his pitches," Rays manager Joe Maddon said after the game. "He pretty much brought out the kitchen sink. Probably one of his best performances as far as using his entire repertoire."

When Price arrived in the big leagues as a rookie coming out of the bullpen in the 2008 playoffs, he was a two-pitch guy: fastball, slider. In 2009, he was still primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, but he's evolved since then, adding a curveball and slowly mastering his changeup, He threw it 5.5 percent of the time in 2010, about 11 percent last season and around 15 percent this season.

It's outings like this one that show us Price's ability to dominate. After getting knocked out early his previous two starts, he was happy to get the complete game, especially since he never went all nine last season. He was also happy because this game came on April 24, the date his close friend Tyler Morrissey died in a car accident four years ago.

Price had tweeted about his friend earlier the day. He talked to Morrissey's family before and after the game. “It is extra motivation to go out and throw well for these people, but I try to take that same intensity out there every time, and sometimes it just doesn’t happen,” Price told the Tampa Bay Tribune.

The intensity is there. The fastball is there. If he can maintain his focus on every pitch, remember that you don't have to "Blue Bayou" on every pitch, then I won't be surprised to see David Price winning that nice trophy in November.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

First: Cliff Lee was incredible against the Giants, throwing 10 shutout innings to become just the third pitcher this millennium to do that in a ballgame, and the first since Mark Mulder did it against the Astros on April 23, 2005. And before you ask, the last time anyone dialed it up to 11 a la Nigel Tufnel of Spinal Tap? The incomparable Dave Stewart back on August 1, 1990. (This little bit of baseball tidbit joy has been brought to you by Baseball-Reference.com, as if you didn’t already know.)

Second: OK, that’s pretty amazing. But what’s even more amazing? He didn’t even have the highest game score in that ballgame. Matt Cain did, outpointing Lee 86-85 by allowing just three baserunners in his nine shutout innings to Lee’s seven hits and seven K's. Admittedly, Game Score might be sort of sabermetrics’ answer to figure skating-style judging, but to put these nights into perspective, neither game would rate among the top 300 starts by game score from 2000-2012. So, really good, but not as good as Cain’s smackdown of the Pirates on Friday the 13th -- his last time out -- when he had a Game Score of 96. That’s awesome, but that’s Cain in a nutshell. Even when the other guy’s getting the immediate attention, whoever that guy may be, Cain might just be the better pitcher.

Third: In contrast, Bartolo Colon’s Game Score while shutting down the Angels was 79, which is good, but he had two starts that were actually better in May for the Yankees. Of course, those were against the Athletics and Orioles, neither of whom had Albert Pujols in their lineup. Which might make me the Russian judge of Game Scores, because beating the Angels now seems a lot more impressive than beating the A’s or O’s then, especially when he had Seth Smith and Jonny Gomes patrolling the outfield corners.

Home: Tweet of the Night, on what baseball rumbles must really be about:

Whenever benches clear and nothing happens, I like to imagine that everyone had to rush the diamond to hold an impromptu Socratic seminar.

— Steph Bee (@StephBee118) April 19, 2012

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Bartolo Colon reportedly took a one-year offer Sunday from the Oakland Athletics. This is another win-win move in a down market for a team and a starting pitcher who need one another. The A’s need warm bodies, even ones as well-insulated as Colon’s, while Colon needs the gig.

Colon is coming off a year where he delivered his best strikeout rate since 2001, whiffing 19.5 percent of all batters faced for the Yankees as a back-end innings-muncher. Even allowing for the fact that strikeout rates are at an all-time high today, that’s pretty nifty for a comeback that initially inspired snickers or despair in the Big Apple. Colon silenced that derision despite his bulk, even while inviting some controversy over the stem cell treatments to his elbow that gave the veteran a chance to come back in the first place.

Knee problems down the stretch helped end his year on a sour note, but Yankee Stadium probably wasn’t the best fit for Colon in the first place. Lefties crushed him for an .880 OPS (against his .621 vs. right-handed batters), and he gave up 15 of his 21 home runs to lefties, including seven of the 11 he allowed at home. Yankee Stadium is the best ballpark for lefty power in the game today, and Colon is essentially a fastball pitcher who survives on changing speeds; his slider’s really just a show-me pitch, so left-handed hitters could afford to sit dead-red and hammer him.

But why should Colon go to the A’s? First, Colon really couldn’t do much better than the Coliseum as far as picking a place to pitch. While he’s been a fly ball-oriented pitcher his entire career, per Baseball Info Solutions, the A’s home park ranked 12th in the AL for three-year park factor for home runs. While everyone likes to harp on how great grounders are, in a park like the Coliseum fly balls aren’t evil -- they’re a high-percentage outcome for getting outs.

Second, the game has a time-honored tradition for retreads marking time with low-budget also-rans fielding a simulacrum of a competitive team while the prospects get readied. That’s what Livan Hernandez was good for with the Nationals the last couple of years, for example. There was no real expectation of greatness, just a hope for 30 workmanlike starts.

Some teams have made providing safe havens for low-cost veterans into a cottage industry. Perhaps the most memorable was the Montreal Expos in the 1980s. They basically spent a decade thriving as a haven for veteran retreads looking to pitch for pennies and rebuild their careers. Dennis Martinez started his second act for the Expos, going 100-72 in eight years with a 3.06 ERA after the Orioles gave up on him. Other veterans who got a new lease on life included Pascual Perez (28-21, 2.80 ERA in 65 starts), Oil Can Boyd (16-14, 3.15 ERA in 50 starts). The benefits of trawling in this end of the market was perhaps best reflected by Zane Smith: Picked up for nothing from the Braves in 1989, then dealt a year later in 1990 with a 2.79 ERA as an Expo. The payoff? Moises Alou, Willie Greene and lefty reliever Scott Ruskin.

For a veteran pitcher like Colon or Erik Bedard (who signed a one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Pirates a month ago), one of the nice benefits of signing with a team headed nowhere is that you don’t have to worry about picking the right team if you want to pitch on a contender. The contenders have better Plan A options, at least until injuries hit. Perhaps the best way to be a Plan B alternative is pitch somewhere in the majors that’s ready to deal you at the first sign of success. Pitch well, and your grateful dumpster-diving temporary employer will agreeably flip you to a winner worried about its rotation depth at the end of July or August.

Finally, Oakland flat-out needs warm bodies to help guarantee that they won’t be piling up mileage on the Sacramento shuttle from Triple-A. With cost control being job one for Billy Beane and David Forst, the last thing they want to do is start the service-time clocks of Jarrod Parker or Brad Peacock any earlier than necessary.

That won’t be easy to do, considering the fragility of almost all of the A’s current rotation choices. Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson are both going to be trying to come back from injury-marred 2011 seasons, while Guillermo Moscoso, Josh Outman and Brandon McCarthy all have unhappy track records where the DL is concerned. The bloated Colon may be a doubtful paragon of durability, but he’ll help fill up game time and roster space for the time being.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The thing they tell you about baseball is that it’s a marathon and not a sprint. This isn’t a game for sudden changes, rash decisions or riding a hot streak for the whole season. This is a game where only collapses are noticed, and even then they are usually a long, drawn-out process.

Yet, on one late, rainy September night, the marathon all but finished, it’s those precious last few hours that will decide everything. Will the Red Sox and Braves complete historic collapses? Will the Rays and Cardinals complete miracle runs?

We believe we’re in for a wild night. We want to believe we’re in for a wild night. Even if such anticipation often ends in predictable disappointment, maybe tonight won’t, maybe the possibilities that are there will come to pass. Maybe the Orioles will beat the Red Sox (again), maybe the Rays will come back against the Yankees, maybe Craig Kimbrel will blow the one save that really matters. We believe because baseball tells us it’s OK to believe, because Kirk Gibson showed us that you don’t need both legs to hit, and Jim Abbott showed us that you don’t need both hands to pitch.

We believe because we can.

* * * *

The season starts in March.

That alone should be telling; in the 85-year history of the old Yankee Stadium, no game was ever played in March.* Three seasons into the life of the new Yankee Stadium, and a crowd wearing so many layers it ends up waddling more than walking, packs into the concourses before the NCAA has yet to crown a men’s basketball champion.

The Yankees aren’t the only team to open on March 31; it’s a new thing they’re trying this season so that maybe the World Series ends before Halloween, the way it used to when you were still a child.** Still, while they’re introducing the 2011 Yankees, there’s some feeling this is a second-place team -- they missed out on Cliff Lee, missed out on Carl Crawford and signed Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Russell Martin and Eric Chavez. There isn’t the certainty here there is in Boston, or in Philadelphia.

It’s perhaps strange to think the biggest move of Philadelphia’s offseason was the acquisition of one single pitcher. Sign Cliff Lee. Keep everyone healthy. Win. It’s a simple formula, and it works well enough to produce the best record in the majors, the only team with 100 wins.

Boston, though, is a different story.

*There was supposed to be a March opener in 2008, but the weather intervened.

**Although the World Series has kept happening at a later and later date, November baseball itself first came about after a week of the regular season was lost in the fallout of 9/11.

* * * *

If you lose the first game of a baseball season, it’s no big deal. Sure, you prefer to start on a high note, but even the best baseball teams in history have lost close to 50 games. Things happen. A pitcher has a bad day, the offense struggles to hit in the cold damp of early spring. So when the Red Sox lose their first game, there are no alarm bells ringing, no bridges or ledges to check. If Carl Crawford goes hitless in four at-bats -- with the hat trick -- you shrug your shoulders and wait for tomorrow.

When you lose the next game, however, and the game after that, and the one after that, and so on until you’ve been swept in the first two series you’ve played, you’ve gone from unconcerned to outright panic. It takes a while in baseball to notice trends; sabermetricians and statistics buffs will tell you that the ultimate sin in baseball analysis is falling victim to the fallacies of small sample size. One good start cannot outdo a season of poor ones (ask A.J. Burnett), and one poor start cannot undo a season of good ones (ask Justin Verlander). Oh-and-one isn’t a concern, but 0-6 is, and by the time you get to 2-10, you’ve become familiar with the maxim: You can’t win a pennant in April, but you can lose one.

By the time Sept. 28 arrives, there’s one overriding question regarding the Red Sox: What if they had won just a few more games in April? What if they had won just one more game during those long nights?

* * * *

The Red Sox aren’t the only team to struggle out of the gate.

The season’s already seven games old by the time the Rays take their first lead.

* * * *



On April 2, Erick Almonte plays in a major league baseball game. It’s his first major league game since 2003.

He has four at-bats, and in three of them, he doesn’t reach base. The other at-bat is a home run.

Bartolo Colon returns from a year out of the majors. He pitches 164.1 innings for the Yankees (the team with the endless payroll signs him for just $900,000) and posts a 4.00 ERA. The last time he threw even 100 innings in one season? 2005.

If the Yankees strike gold with Colon, what do the Giants find with Ryan Vogelsong?

In the six years from 2001 to 2006, Vogelsong, pitching for the Giants and Pirates, had just one season with an ERA under 5.00, and just two with an ERA under 6.00.

In 28 starts with the Giants in 2011, the 33-year-old Vogelsong’s ERA will finish at 2.71.

It’s the fourth-best ERA in the National League.

* * * *

On April 30, for the White Sox, Adam Dunn is hitting .160/.300/.267, with two home runs. It’s a slow start, but other players have April slumps too -- Nick Swisher hits just .226/.340/.286 in the season’s first month.

Swisher will ultimately recover from his slump, and end the season with an .822 OPS. It’s not an All-Star season, but it’s perfectly respectable, the type of season some teams would kill to have from just one of their hitters.

Adam Dunn, however, does not recover.

His final line of .159/.292/.277 is, in some respects, worse than his April line, a historically bad season for a hitter, especially a player known for perennially finishing with 40 home runs ends the season with just 11.

* * * *

Dunn doesn’t hit home runs in 2011, but plenty of other players do.

Jose Bautista, as if to prove that he’s not a one-year aberration, does a Barry Bonds impression in the first half and finishes the season with 43 home runs. Curtis Granderson has 41. Mark Teixeira and Matt Kemp both have 39.

Everyone knows Derek Jeter will get his 3,000th hit in 2011, they just don’t know when. They do know, however, that the 3,000th hit won’t be a home run.

Except, it is.

What’s more, the fan who catches it, Christian Lopez, who can ask for the world in return for that ball, asks for absolutely nothing.

Then, on another night: Jim Thome hits his 599th and 600th home runs in the same game, giving his fans in Minnesota a lone night to cheer.

* * * *



The last time the Pirates finished a season with a winning record was 1992 -- when a man named William Jefferson Clinton was on the Democrats’ ticket for the White House.

The Pirates had a rookie pitcher that year who did quite well, with an 8-1 record and an ERA of 2.14 in 13 games started. His name? Tim Wakefield.

In 2011, when Tim Wakefield will notch his 200th win, there are three separate occasions in July, where, for a total of five nights, the Pirates go to sleep in first place.

The Pirates are undone by a 19-inning marathon with the Braves, a game that Scott Proctor actually wins, a game that, believe it or not, doesn’t have a position player pitching for either team, a game that sees a combined 39 runners left on base ... a game that ends on a blown call at home plate.

Pittsburgh fades into the quiet summer night. The Braves linger. For a little while, anyway.

* * * *

After losing 97 games in 2010 the Diamondbacks are branded underachievers. That young crop of Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, et al, has failed to mature. The bullpen is so noxious that someone jokes that the next time the phone rings, the bullpen coach should just let it go to voicemail*.

Kirk Gibson, who might know a little something about believing, somehow figures it out. Or, rather, if he doesn’t figure it out, it’s under his watch that his players do.

Arizona starts to win, and then they win again, and again, and when San Francisco can’t overcome injuries to Buster Posey and Brian Wilson, the Diamondbacks sense an opportunity.

They bite.

*via @Haudricort

* * * *



After 2010, one might think the Diamondbacks learned their lesson about bullpens.

Relief pitchers are supposed to have short lifespans.

They are supposed to come up, throw fire, be untouchable for a season or two, be emphatic in their celebration, and then fade into a sort of obscurity, only being remembered for that one World Series they helped their team win -- or, more often, lose.

They are not supposed to stick around long enough for 600 saves.

Yet, on a September afternoon, in what has been an unlikely season for the Yankees, a season of roster patches and Curtis Granderson home runs, Mariano Rivera stands on the mound, notches save No. 2 602, the all-time record, and celebrates with a handshake and hugs with his teammates.

Jorge Posada has to push the Yankees’ closer back to the mound, and force him to enjoy the adulation he’s earned.

* * * *

If only the Red Sox had Rivera.

If only the Braves had Rivera.

On Sept. 5, the Red Sox (they don’t know it yet, but The Collapse has already started) have a seven-game lead over Tampa Bay for the AL wild-card spot. The AL East, with the Yankees leading by just 2.5 games, is not out of reach.

On Sept. 5, the Braves lead the Giants and Cardinals by 8.5 games for the NL wild-card berth. The Phillies are too good for the NL East title to be realistic, but the Braves have such a cushion on the wild-card that the playoffs seem inevitable.

Baseball, though, is a marathon, and no one sees trends right away. The Red Sox lose a game here, the Braves lose a game there.

It’s OK, though -- it would take a miracle for the Cardinals or the Rays or the Giants or the Angels to pose any sort of threat. The Rays waited too long to call up Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore. The Cardinals are too busy worrying about Albert Pujols’ impending free agency. It can’t happen.

You know it can’t happen. There’s no possible way. It’s just a September slump.

Until it’s not.

Until you look up one late September day and realize the Red Sox need the Yankees to beat the Rays, not just so that their cushion doesn’t get any smaller, but instead, for their very survival.

Until you look up one late September day and realize that the Cardinals might actually have an easier time beating the Astros than the Braves will have beating the Phillies.

Until you look up one late September day and realize that barely averaging three runs a game for a month, even in a year of depressed offense, isn’t going to cut it when the other team has Albert Pujols (and even when they don’t).

Until you look up one late September day and realize that the Yankees, having clinched everything there possibly is available to clinch in the regular season (playoffs, division, home field), the Yankees have nothing to play for except the pride of not seeing the Red Sox in the playoffs, and the Rays now have everything on the table.

Until you look up, and believe.

* * * *



So we believe.

We believe even as the Braves are just two outs away.

We believe even though the Yankees lead 7-0 lead in the eighth inning.

We believe even though the Red Sox have the Orioles down to their last strike.

There’s no Kirk Gibson one-legged home run on this night, no Jim Abbott no-hitter, but we don’t need them.

We have 13 innings in Atlanta, 12 in Tampa and nine in Baltimore, maybe the most dramatic of all.

We get a two-strike, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth pinch-hit home run from Dan Johnson. We get a two-strike, two-out double from Nolan Reimold off Jonathan Papelbon.

We get a Robert Andino single, a Carl Crawford misplay, and an Orioles win, and then, not five minutes later, we get an Evan Longoria home run just to the right side of the left-field foul pole. A cheap shot, one might argue on another day. Not tonight.

This is the night of the baseball miracles. A month long in the making, a month long to notice, but tonight they’re here, right before our eyes.

We believe because it’s real.

* * * *



Matt Moore has had one career start. Just one, and he’s tapped to start Game 1 of the ALDS for Tampa Bay, with his team on the road, with his team facing the offense of the Texas Rangers, at Arlington. The Rays can’t possibly win this game. Moore can’t possibly succeed with this sort of pressure.

Until he does.

One game won’t make a career, but we believe in courage.

Josh Collmenter’s a rookie, too. He’s a rookie, and he’s on the mound with his team down two games to none. Win or go home, kid, it all hangs on you.

Seven innings, two hits, one run, and the Diamondbacks will live to play another game.

We believe in hope.

Jorge Posada is not a rookie.

The last season of his contract has been an unmitigated disaster, on the field and, for a time, off it, but Posada battles.

His .429/.579/.571 batting line in the ALDS is the best of any Yankees’ hitter. Better than Robinson Cano or Granderson, better than Jeter or Alex Rodriguez, better than Teixeira or Swisher.

We believe in fight.

The Phillies sail through the regular season. Pitching and more pitching, a Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee-Cole Hamels starting three is a dream rotation; the Phillies get spoiled even further with Vance Worley and the best team ERA in the majors.

With that staff, the last image of their season isn’t supposed to be Ryan Howard clutching his ankle after rupturing his Achilles, but that’s what it is.

We believe in unexpected.

The Brewers aren’t afraid of Nyjer Morgan or Yuniesky Betancourt or Mark Kotsay, even when other teams shy away, even when the narrative is about Morgan’s character or Betancourt’s defense or Kotsay’s (lack of) hitting. They aren’t afraid to trade for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, even if it costs their entire farm system.

They have one season left to try to get Prince Fielder a World Series ring, the same Prince Fielder who hits a home run in the All-Star Game that will guarantee home-field advantage for whichever National League team makes it to the World Series.

If there is a season for the Brewers, this is supposed to be it.

We believe in going all-out.

Justin Verlander’s year has been so good that the debate isn’t whether or not he should win the Cy Young; it’s whether or not he should win the MVP. Yet, even with that performance, the move that puts the Tigers over the edge, that moves them from possible AL Central winners to probable American League contenders, is a trade for a pitcher who was 3-12 with a team that would go on to lose 95 games.

It isn’t Verlander to whom Leyland gives the ball in Game 5 of the ALDS; it’s Doug Fister.

We believe in second chances.

The World Series runners-up from 2010 have something to prove in 2011, and even while all the attention is on the Red Sox and the Phillies and the Yankees and the Brewers, the Rangers are still there, winning game after game.

This, we are told, is the Year of the Napoli. The Angels favored Jeff Mathis -- he of the career .194/.257/.301 batting line -- so Mike Napoli went to Texas instead, went to Arlington and posted a 171 OPS+ for the season, and then he kept hitting in the postseason, too.

Josh Hamilton’s story is such that if you pitched it as a Hollywood script they would tell you no, things like that don’t happen, that you can’t come all the way back from drug and alcohol problems to hit 28 home runs in the first round of the Home Run Derby in 2008 and then lead your team to the World Series in 2010 and 2011, that you can’t hit the extra-inning, go-ahead home run in the 10th inning of Game 6, and yet this is exactly what happens.

We believe in redemption.

The Cardinals are 10.5 games out in August and 8.5 back in September. Adam Wainwright doesn’t throw a single pitch for them all season. Ryan Franklin loses his job as the team’s closer and on June 17 Chris Carpenter is 1-7 with an ERA of 4.47. Matt Holliday loses his appendix and busts his finger; Albert Pujols breaks his wrist.

The Cardinals shouldn’t make the playoffs. They shouldn’t make the Phillies go five games, and then win because of Carpenter's complete game shutout (not when Tony La Russa’s managing, anyway). They shouldn’t beat the Brewers in Milwaukee, and they certainly shouldn’t have home-field advantage in the World Series.

They shouldn’t, but they do, and then they do more.

Albert Pujols echoes Reggie Jackson and Babe Ruth, hitting three home runs in one World Series game, arguably the best single-game offensive performance in postseason history.

In Game 6, the Cardinals are twice down to their last at-bat, twice down to their last strike, twice one pitch away from losing the World Series. Each time, the Cardinals come through, as though the idea of losing the game never occurs, and a team that loses its ace before Opening Day forces a Game 7 in the World Series.

Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. This is what they tell you. One game can’t tell you anything, one game can’t make or break you, but this is what happens in the World Series. One game is all that stands between St. Louis and a World Series championship that few, if any, expected.

One game, and the Cardinals have Chris Carpenter on the mound.

We believe in impossible.

Rebecca Glass works for ESPN Stats & Information and is a contributor to ESPN New York's Yankees blog.

As Jon Weisman writes at Dodger Thoughts, Matt Kemp could win the Triple Crown ... and nobody seems to be paying attention. With six games left, Kemp is hitting .326, just four points behind Ryan Braun and three behind Jose Reyes. His 36 home runs trail Albert Pujols by one. He leads Ryan Howard by five RBIs.

Sure, we all know batting average and RBIs can be overrated, but if Kemp could somehow pull this off, it would be an awesome accomplishment. A fun accomplishment, one to be appreciated, not sabermetrically scorned. The last hitter to do so was Carl Yastrzemski for the 1967 Red Sox. The last NL player was Joe Medwick for the 1937 Cardinals. Over the past six games, Kemp climbed into the batting race by going an incredible 15-for-25 to raise his average from .314 to .326. A week ago, he was too far behind in the batting race; now he's right there. Let's hope he can pull it off.

Other links

• Chase Utley is hitting .210 with a .283 on-base percentage since Aug. 2. Bill Baer examines what's gone wrong.
• The Red Sox are hanging on by their fingernails. Chip Buck of Fire Brand of the American League takes the pulse of Red Nation. Chip says he's a mere 1 on the panic scale ... but others are a little more concerned.
• Matt Meyers offers up his review of "Moneyball."
• Bartolo Colon wasn't very good last night. Brien Jackson wonders what the Yankees should do with him.
• Michael Pineda has made his final start for the Mariners, and Brendan Gawlowski reviews Pineda's season over at Pro Ball NW. His take: Unless he develops a better changeup, he may settle in as comparable in value to Ervin Santana.
• Jon Shepherd has an interesting look at some of baseball's early rules and why they developed.

With a low screaming liner down the left-field line that just cleared the fence, Edwin Encarnacion sent the Blue Jays home as winners in the 12th inning and sent the Angels packing ... perhaps for the season. It’s certainly no way a team wants to suffer one of its toughest defeats, with a rookie reliever (7.56 ERA) pitching on the road with no margin for error.

But that, of course, is one of the beautiful aspects of baseball: You can’t always have your best pitchers or best hitters on the mound or at the plate in the most crucial situations. There are 25 guys on your roster -- more in September -- and at some point they all have to come through. We saw this on Thursday, as teams in the wild-card chase scrapped and clawed to stay alive. With their season in desperate straits, the Rays gave a 22-year-old his first big league start. The Cardinals used 22 players, but three relievers couldn’t hold a 6-2 lead in the ninth.

And tied in the bottom of the 11th, Angels manager Mike Scioscia gave the ball to Garrett Richards, a hard-throwing right-hander with just five big league appearances. He got MVP candidate Jose Bautista to pop out and blew away Adam Lind. Richards returned to the mound in the 12th, and Encarnacion worked the count to 2-2, fouled off a pitch, took ball three. The rookie didn’t want to walk the leadoff guy.

He didn’t.

Seemingly out of nowhere, with the Red Sox slumping and the Rays unable to capitalize, the Angels had clawed back into the wild-card race. But Thursday’s loss puts the Angels three games behind the Red Sox and one game behind the Rays, and with just six games to play, overcoming two teams will be too much for them to achieve.

In the end, this game was a microcosm of the Angels’ season: Not enough offense. Starter Ervin Santana did take a 3-1 lead into the seventh, but he hasn’t been sharp this month with 21 walks in five games. Maybe Scioscia left him in one batter too long, as Toronto’s Eric Thames homered to make it 3-2. Bobby Cassevah couldn’t hold the one-run lead, but worse yet the Angels couldn’t touch the Toronto bullpen and didn’t get a hit the final four innings.

So the Angels are all but out of it. That’s one thing we learned on Thursday. Here are a few other things:

• Maybe Matt Moore should have been up earlier. Yes, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez and Brett Gardner didn’t play, but the heralded Rays rookie looked absolutely awesome in his first major league start, striking 11 Yankees in five innings and throwing 59 of his 84 pitches for strikes. Considering his domination in Double-A (2.20 ERA, 131 strikeouts in 102 1/3 IP) and then Triple-A (1.37 ERA in nine starts), it seems clear that Moore could have helped the Rays. The rotation has been solid (although Wade Davis has a 4.98 ERA since the All-Star break) so maybe there wasn’t a clear opening, but Moore certainly could have helped in the bullpen. In the end, the Rays may be second-guessing themselves for waiting to call up Moore and Desmond Jennings.
• The Cardinals played with fire all season and got burned. In retrospect, the biggest blunder of the season for manager Tony La Russa was the decision to leave spring training with Ryan Franklin as his team’s closer. Franklin blew a save on Opening Day and then blew three more save chances in the club’s first 16 games; St. Louis lost all four of those games. The thing is: Considering Franklin’s home run tendencies, low strikeout rates and increasing age, it was risky to trust him for another year. Once Franklin was removed as closer, the bullpen actually fared pretty well. Here are the Cardinals’ records when leading entering the seventh, eighth and ninth innings and the National League as a whole:
  

  Seventh: 65-10, .867 win percentage (NL average entering Thursday: .860)
  Eighth: 66-9, .880 (NL average: .895)
  Ninth: 74-7, .914 (NL average: .955)

  
  Of course, one of those seven losses came in Thursday’s devastating loss as Jason Motte walked three batters trying to protect a 6-2 lead, Rafael Furcal made an error and Marc Rzepczynski and Fernando Salas failed to stop the bleeding.
  
  The knife cut sharp with that loss. It’s the one Cardinals fans will remember if the team falls a game short of the playoffs, but it’s really those losses in April that hurt the most.
• Bartolo Colon’s chances at joining the Yankees' postseason rotation took a big hit. The Yankees’ Triple-A staff shut down the Rays on Wednesday, but Tampa Bay lit up Colon on Thursday. With two straight bad starts from Colon, manager Joe Girardi is more confused than ever about his options. Don’t count out A.J. Burnett!
• The Braves would like to offer some high-fives to the Mets. A two-game lead with six to go instead of one? Yes, they’ll take that, thank you.
• Phillies fans are still confident and not at all nervous about their team. They would never boo their boys over a little six-game losing streak, would they? Not after this great season. No way. Right?

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Today's postseason question: Who should be the New York Yankees' No. 3 starter?

For the first round of the playoffs, the Yankees will need only three starters, assuming they pitch CC Sabathia on three days' rest in Game 4. If the series goes five games, Ivan Nova would start Game 5 on four days' rest.

But who will get the call for the third slot? Phil Hughes appeared the favorite, but he was pulled from his start today due to back spasms. Let's run down the candidates and how they've done down the stretch.

Phil Hughes: His overall numbers remain poor (5-5, 6.00 ERA, 1.49 WHIP), but he's allowed three runs in 12 innings in his two September starts. Those two starts, however, came against the Orioles and the Mariners (worst offense in the majors). In his starts prior to that, Hughes was pounded by the Red Sox and A's. In those four starts, he's recorded 23 groundball outs against 46 flyball outs, so home runs could be a concern with that flyball rate. Bottom line: He'll get at least one start to prove he's healthy, but what if he pitches poorly in that game?

A.J. Burnett: Did you realize Burnett has 25 wild pitches? That's the third-most since 1920, trailing only Tony Cloninger's 27 in 1966 and Juan Guzman's 26 in 1993. Would Joe Girardi really have the intestinal fortitude to start Burnett? He has a 8.59 ERA over his past nine starts, allowing 69 hits in 44 innings. But he does have 47 strikeouts and only 18 walks. He struck out 11 two starts ago ... but that came against the Mariners, who are striking out a dozen times every game this month. In his last start, Burnett got pounded by the Triple-A Twins. Do you like playing with fire?

Bartolo Colon: So good the first two months, he's been shaky of late, allowing nine home runs over his past eight starts. The Blue Jays roughed him up in his last start but in the game before that he allowed just an unearned against the Angels in seven innings. He's also throwing strikes: 24-to-3 strikeout/walk ratio over his past five starts. Colon won't go deep into the game, but he may be your best bet for five or six decent innings.

Freddy Garcia: The Chief is 11-9 with a 3.77 ERA overall, but in four starts since a short DL stint in August he owns a 7.85 ERA and has allowed seven home runs in 18.1 innings. That gopherball rate would be a risky matchup against the Tigers or Rangers.

So, who do you go with? Place your vote.

There might be a changing of the guard in the NL West, but no such thing occurred on Thursday’s Baseball Today, as Keith Law and I gathered to delve into the best sport, with the following topics on the docket:

1. Tony La Russa’s St. Louis Cardinals fell even further behind the Milwaukee Brewers, and one has to wonder if an era is coming to an end.

2. Is Troy Tulowitzki the NL MVP? Certainly one can make the case, and KLaw does, but I do think the standings have to play some role in the decision. Do you agree?

3. Projecting big league performance from minor leaguers is generally a dicey proposition, but when an emailer asks for our favorite "4A" players who didn’t pan out, we’ve got names.

4. Where oh where has the screwball gone? KLaw discusses this interesting pitch and why it’s no longer in vogue.

5. As the Yankees prepare to send Bartolo Colon to the mound Thursday, I wonder if it matters that the team doesn’t have a natural No. 2 starter. Ivan Nova’s looking good, after all.

Plus: Excellent emails, a tough day for Alex Anthopoulos, ESPN’s Amy Nelson and Bryce Harper, the sputtering Giants, the awesome Jason Kipnis and so much more on a packed Baseball Today for Thursday!

I did the Baseball Today podcast with Eric Karabell on Wednesday and randomly mentioned that Colby Lewis is one of the most important pitchers in baseball. He returned from Japan last season and was a huge key to the Rangers' World Series run, winning 12 games with a 3.72 ERA, finishing fifth in the AL in strikeout rate and then beating the Yankees twice in the ALCS and winning his only World Series start. This season, however, he's been up and down, with four starts of six or more runs allowed, but three with zero.

Anyway, after bringing up Lewis, Eric and I decided to each submit our list of the 10 most important pitchers in baseball. The best guys aren't on here; we know Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia and Jon Lester are good and that they just need to stay healthy. So our lists are more a sample of guys who need to keep pitching well or guys who need to step it up. Eric's list tended more to include guys currently pitching like aces; my list tended more towards guys who need to step it up, although we did end up with a few duplicates.

Eric's list
Edinson Volquez, Reds: His ERA is through the roof (5.65), but Dusty Baker chose him for Game 1 of the playoffs last year for a reason, and needs him to anchor the current staff if the Reds are to get back there.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox: Baseball’s ERA leader until Tuesday, if he reverts to his 2010 self this team is in trouble, because depth/health is already an issue.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies: He’s taken over ace duties from Ubaldo Jimenez, and better keep pitching well because no other healthy Rockies starter boasts a sub-4.00 ERA.

Shaun Marcum, Brewers: The real ace of the NL Central leaders so far, he’s dealt with a hip problem lately, and the team has lost six of his past seven starts.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals: The young lefty has won once in eight starts, and one gets the feeling there’s only so long Kyle Lohse can keep his ERA at 2.78.

Erik Bedard, Mariners: He was placed on the disabled list Wednesday, but don’t panic. How the Mariners play in the next month will decide which contender Bedard pitches for the final two months.

Ivan Nova, Yankees: Since I can’t trust Bartolo Colon to stay healthy or Freddy Garcia to stay competent, Nova needs to pitch like the No. 3 starter he occasionally looks like.

Colby Lewis, Rangers: Lefty C.J. Wilson seems safe, but with Alexi Ogando blowing up it’s critical Lewis cuts down on the home runs and gives the Rangers' offense a chance.

Brandon Beachy, Braves: He’s a lot better than most people think, while touted arms Mike Minor and Julio Teheran just don’t seem ready.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: He’s third on the staff in wins, but you won’t win much when allowing 21 runs over your past 12 1/3 innings (three starts). The Tigers need Porcello to fix things.

Dave's list
Colby Lewis, Rangers: Home runs have been his problem as Eric wrote, as he's allowed an AL-leading 20, just one fewer than last season.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: The Red Sox have allowed more runs than the Yankees, so they need Buchholz to return from the DL and give them that solid No. 3 behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals: Lohse isn't going to keep his ERA under 3.00, but with the bullpen in tatters, Tony La Russa needs him to keep soaking up innings ... and keep that ERA close to 3.00.

Edinson Volquez, Reds: Johnny Cueto has been really good lately, but the Reds need somebody else in the rotation to become a strong No. 2.

Fausto Carmona, Indians: He's 4-10 with a 5.89 ERA, including 1-7 with a 7.99 ERA over his past nine starts, and while that hard sinker is still there, the Indians can't afford to wait much longer.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: His ERA is 5.06, his strikeout rate is low, and with Phil Coke just demoted to the pen, the Tigers need second-half improvement from Porcello.

Bartolo Colon, Yankees: He's important precisely because he has been so good.

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks: If Arizona wants to stay in the NL West race, it needs Kennedy to keep pitching like the staff ace he's been, as he's third in the NL in innings pitched and has a 3.01 ERA (excellent for that ballpark).

Zack Greinke, Brewers: He's 7-3 but his ERA is 5.63; his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an excellent 80/12, so odds are that ERA will drop significantly in the second half.

Brandon Beachy, Braves: He's been so impressive in his 10 starts that suddenly the Braves need him to keep it up, considering their lackluster offense.

Follow Eric on Twitter @karabellespn and Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Here are the top five reasons -- and there are like 324 reasons in all -- why you should listen to Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast with myself and Mark Simon!

1. ESPN contributor and former GM Jim Bowden makes his Baseball Today debut, discussing many topics, including the frailty of closers, Evan Longoria leading off and how the Buster Posey collision should have been avoided. That answer might surprise you!

2. Mark discusses a landmark Memorial Day around the big leagues, and whether weather might adjust statistics from here on out.

3. It's Power Rankings day, and let's just say one of us regrets jumping on the Cleveland Indians bandwagon. I should have known better! We list our top 10 and bottom five.

4. How is a pair of pants like Oliver Perez? I concede this is an odd one, but hang with us and you'll understand.

5. The Tuesday night schedule is full of young hurlers with bright futures, but we also discuss the ESPN battle in St. Louis. Are you taking Ryan Vogelsong or Chris Carpenter. Think about it ...

Plus: Excellent emails, brothers hitting home runs, how the umpires added to the Twins' discontent, today's birthdays, the Royals change closers and Bartolo Colon just keeps on keepin' on. All this and more in a packed Baseball Today podcast for Tuesday!

The New York Yankees have lost five in a row and nine of 12. Suddenly, they're just 20-18 in a logjammed AL East, 2 games behind first-place Tampa Bay and just 1 1/2 games ahead of fifth-place Baltimore. Is this just a little slump or a crisis?

I vote for crisis. And here's why:

1. The offense is not underperforming.

Check out this chart, showing the starting nine's 2010 numbers, their projected 2011 numbers via ZiPS, and their actual 2011 numbers:

Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada aren't close to matching their projections, but they're balanced out by the hot starts of Curtis Granderson and Russell Martin (although he's cooled off lately). And in the case of Posada, who turns 40 this summer, not completely unexpected given his age. Yes, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez might hit a little better, but given their ages and the league-wide drop in offense, their numbers aren't that far off their projected totals. Cano's power stroke has been there, but a big reason for his MVP-caliber 2010 was improved patience, but his walk rate has dipped from a career-best 8.2 percent to 3.9 percent, his lowest since his rookie season. He's also striking out at a career-worst 17.5 percent. Mark Teixeira, usually a slow starter, has been about what you'd expect.

Anyway, it should be noted the Yankees do lead the AL in runs scored. I just don't expect much of a boost over what they've done so far.

2. The pitching has been better than expected.

Yes, Phil Hughes has struggled with a tired arm, but Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia have both been solid, combining for a 3.50 ERA over 79 2/3 innings. That's better than what Hughes produced last season. A.J. Burnett is pitching as well as he ever has in pinstripes, averaging more than six innings per start with a 3.38 ERA. And the bullpen, despite Rafael Soriano's slow start, has been solid, with a 3.31 ERA. The point: I don't see where the pitching will get better, and there are obvious huge questions marks about the future performance of Colon and Garcia.

3. The schedule.

The Yankees are in the middle of a stretch where they play 32 games in 33 days. Joe Girardi has been reluctant to use his bench much -- Granderson has played every game; Cano, Teixeira, Brett Gardner and Swisher have sat just once; Jeter has missed just two -- leaving one to wonder how all these old legs will handle the wear and tear. They also haven't played Tampa Bay until tonight and haven't made a West Coast trip yet.

4. They failed to take advantage of their early schedule.

The Yankees played 24 of their first 38 games at home -- that's more home games than any other team -- but went just 13-11 in those games. Last season, they were nine games better at home.

5. Can they hit away from home?

The Yankees have thrived off the home run, hitting a major league-leading 60 (11 more than Cincinnati), and scoring a higher percentage of their runs via the home run than any other club. That strategy seems made for Yankee Stadium, but it will translate on the road over 81 games? Last season the Yankees had an .832 OPS at home, .742 on the road.

6. Increased parity means deadline deals will be more difficult.

Right now, Minnesota and Seattle look like the only American League teams who won't still be in the playoff chase come July, but neither has a difference-making pitcher who will be available. The National League looks even tighter than the AL. I just don't see a pitcher near the quality of Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt who will be on the trade market.

7. You can eat the money but not the results.

How long do the Yankees stick with Posada? Top prospect Jesus Montero is hitting .336 at Triple-A, but with just two home runs and six walks in 122 at-bats. Still, he would be a good bet to outproduce Posada from here on out. But will the Yankees let sentiment get in the way?

8. The Red Sox are only going to get better.

Boston didn't panic after its 2-10 start and has clawed back to .500. Unlike the Yankees, you can find several Red Sox underperforming their projected numbers, most notably Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia and John Lackey.

9. The Rays are for real.

This is going to be three-team race. Heck, maybe a four-team race with the Blue Jays in the mix as well.

10. Bad karma.

The Posada incident might have been blown out of proportion, but it symbolizes how things just don't feel right with the Yankees this year. This goes back to the contentious offseason negotiations with Jeter. For some reason, GM Brian Cashman has been more public in vocalizing his thoughts (he also bashed the Rafael Soriano signing). Not that players need support from their GM to play well, but the way he handled the Posada situation was definitely odd. Meanwhile, Girardi doesn't seem to offer the calming leadership that Joe Torre provided. Certainly, Yankee players are used to dealing with issues that blow up in the media, but in the past they've been able to rely on their depth of talent and ability.

Now that talent is older than ever and the on/off switch harder to locate. The Rays have won two of the past three AL East division titles and believe in themselves. The Red Sox are gaining steam. A lot has gone right for the Yankees this season -- and they're barely over .500 and now they get to face David Price as they try to end this skid.

(For more Yankees coverage, check out our SweetSpot blog affiliate, It's About the Money, Stupid.)

There are many things a baseball player can do to improve his performance:

1. He can practice more.
2. He can learn a new pitch or a new hitting technique.
3. He can get in better shape, either by losing weight or getting stronger by lifting weights, or just eating better.
4. He can learn to mentally prepare better for the rigorous demands of his sport.
5. He can watch video or pay more attention to scouting reports or hustle more.

I don't think anybody has any issues with those methods of improvement. Or these:

6. He can get contact lenses to improve worsening eyesight, or maybe get laser eye surgery.
7. He can have surgery to fix a bum knee or a torn rotator cuff or some other injured body part.
8. He can get shot up with cortisone to deaden the pain of a sore elbow or ankle.
9. He can attempt to steal signs by sneaking a peak at the catcher or having a teammate send you a signal.

The last one is part of the game, right? No problem there. But then we start getting into more gray areas:

10. He can cork his bat or scuff the baseball.
11. His team could employ some illegal method of sign stealing, such as a guy sitting in the center-field scoreboard.
12. He could take amphetamines.
13. He could take HGH.
14. He could take steroids or some other new, undetectable performance-enhancing drug.

Hmm, seems like most people frown upon those, although bat-corkers and scuffers don't seem to garner the same levels of animosity as steroid users.

OK. But what about these methods:

15. A player with perfect 20/20 vision undergoes laser eye surgery to make his eyesight even better?
16. What about players who claim they have attention deficit order, allowing them to get medical clearance to use medications like Ritalin?
17. What about Tommy John surgery, in which the ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow is replaced by a tendon from elsewhere in the body (forearm, hamstring, knee)?
18. What about a pitcher with years of injuries who undergoes a surgery that involves removing bone marrow stem cells, which are then spun in a centrifuge to separate it from blood material, and then injected along with the pitcher's own body fat into the injured elbow or shoulder to help repair the damaged ligament or muscle?
19. What about a player who uses HGH only while rehabbing from an injury?
20. What about a bionic ligament?

Of course, No. 18 revolves around the procedure conducted on Yankees starter Bartolo Colon. The doctor who performed the surgery has admitted to using HGH on non-athlete patients, but denies using it on Colon.

So my question: Where do you draw the line? Is transplanting a ligament from your thigh to your elbow natural? Many pitchers rehab from Tommy John surgery throwing harder than they ever did before (although some will argue that's merely due to the rehab involved). If the goal is get injured players back on the field (or to keep them there), why is cortisone (a steroid hormone) allowed, but using HGH while trying to come back from an injury not allowed? Even if Colon was given an HGH injection, does that really improve his performance any more than Tommy John surgery or laser eye surgery?

And what about the first pitcher who damages his elbow and is given a bionic ligament? The 6 million dollar man come to life.

Where do you draw the line? Is this about cheating or legality or medical ethics or keeping a level playing field or about baseball players using only their God-given abilities and bodies? Are performance-enhancing medical procedures OK, but not performance-enhancing drugs?

Where do you draw the line? The blurred message between medicine and PEDs will only get more and more difficult to see through.

Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot.

Where Felix Hernandez is concerned, it’s easy to ditch hope and faith and start demanding the Mariners get down to business and resolve what their King’s ransom is. Jim Caple responded to those calling for Seattle to trade its ace by suggesting its time everyone stops treating the bad clubs like they're farm systems for the rich teams. Plus, those who think Seattle is better off trading Hernandez might want to be careful what they wish for. Consider the packages received from this short, non-comprehensive list of A-list exchanges from the last decade:

2010

• Phillies trade Cliff Lee to the Mariners for J.C. Ramirez, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies: This was for a full year of Lee. Nobody’s a slam-dunk deal-winner more than a year later. Aumont should be a good reliever someday, but Gillies is still struggling with hamstring woes that have kept him from becoming the leadoff prospect he was made out to be. Ramirez is putting up good numbers in a repeat spin at Double-A, but his slider’s MIA, taking his strikeout rate with it (nine in 32 innings).
• Mariners trade Cliff Lee to the Rangers (with Mark Lowe) for Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, Matthew Lawson and Blake Beavan: The Mariners were only dealing away a few months of Lee’s time before free agency, but were also surrendering the draft picks his departure would inevitably bring. Lawson’s already gone (dealt for Aaron Laffey), but Smoak’s living up to his billing as a top prospect, and Beavan should help round out a rotation someday. Lueke’s off-field jail time and on-field struggles have made him a source of embarrassment. A merely decent package for a three-month rental of an ace.
• Astros trade Roy Oswalt to the Phillies for J.A. Happ, Brett Wallace and Anthony Villar: Houston paid for the privilege of making this deal happen, giving the Phillies $11 million to offset Oswalt’s 2011 salary, because this wasn’t just a season-ending rental. This was a humiliatingly bad deal, even if Happ sticks as a mid-rotation filler for the four seasons he’s under Astros control, and even if Wallace winds up being an adequate bat for first base. Villar is hitting in Lancaster in the Cal League.
• Blue Jays trade Roy Halladay to the Phillies for Michael Taylor, Travis d’Arnaud and Kyle Drabek: A reasonable exchange, because the Phillies could put together a financial package to make Doc happy, while the Jays got at least one premium talent. Drabek looks like he’ll be a quality big-league starter for years to come, while d’Arnaud is a 22-year-old strong-armed receiver dealing with the tough jump to Double-A. Taylor was swapped for Brett Wallace, who was subsequently converted into outfield speedster Anthony Gose to help the Astros’ end of the Oswalt exchange.

2009

• Indians trade Cliff Lee to the Phillies for Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Jason Donald and Lou Marson: Donald and Marson make for little more than nice reserves, so this deal boils down to the two pitchers’ upside for a year and a half of Lee. Knapp came over with a bum shoulder that needed repair, but has been excellent in the Sally League this spring, while Carrasco’s a reasonable mid-rotation starter.

2008

• Twins trade Johan Santana to the Mets for Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Carlos Gomez: An unmitigated disaster, but Santana’s role in forcing the Twins’ hand via his no-trade rights to get himself the multi-year deal he coveted with New York was a critical factor. Mulvey and Humber are both out of the organization, the toolsy Gomez (now with the Brewers) may never hold a regular job in center and Guerra may never get past Double-A.

• Indians trade CC Sabathia to the Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson, and Rob Bryson: Not a lot of wow in this exchange, because LaPorta seems to have recovered enough at the plate to kill the Brad Komminsk comparisons as a potential all-time washout, while Brantley’s a serviceable outfield starter. All this for almost three months of Sabathia, and no draft picks? It makes the Mariners’ trade of Lee last year look good by comparison.

2005

• Diamondbacks traded Randy Johnson to the Yankees for Javier Vazquez, Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro and cash. This was equal parts about the Big Unit’s cost and the dissatisfaction with Vazquez after his initial flop in the Bronx, but the Snakes got some payback by getting Chris Young from the White Sox in their own Vazquez package deal.

2003

• Diamondbacks traded Curt Schilling to the Red Sox for Brandon Lyon, Jorge De La Rosa, Casey Fossum, and Michael Goss: In retrospect, this salary dump didn’t turn out as badly for the Snakes as it looked at first blush, but that’s mostly because De La Rosa did eventually establish himself -- six years later, and on the Rockies’ watch. Lyon has a career, but Fossum was a top prospect who didn’t pan out.

2002

• Indians trade Bartolo Colon (and Tim Drew) to the Expos for Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Lee Stevens, and the ubiquitous Cliff Lee: A flat-out disaster, but from the other side of the equation. Omar Minaya grabbed for headlines without landing an actual ace, at the low, low, low price of handing the Tribe a trio of blue-chip talents. Every team trying to trade an ace can dream of getting a package this good, but a deal this awful comes along once in a generation, and there are no more Expos to keep alive the memory of the other side of this disaster, let alone entertain Clevelanders with their lamentations.

The good news for the Mariners is how Hernandez is not like these others: He's under contractual control through 2014, so he’s not a rental, and at the age of 25, these next four seasons should be prime campaigns worthy of a real premium. His $58 million salary for 2012-2014 might seem like a deterrent to getting a deal done, but that’s still below the coin it would have taken to buy a King on the open market in any of the recent starter-starved pools of free agents.

If anything, to get a sense of what Hernandez might bring in a deal, you might want to compare the King’s value to that of Matt Garza. The Cubs traded a five-player package of worthwhile prospects to the Rays to acquire three seasons of a talented pitcher in the middle of his career. That’s what Jack Zduriencik would have to use as his measure, because if history’s any guide, the M’s GM shouldn’t be interested in moving his ace, just to move the expense of employing him.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.