SweetSpot: Bert Blyleven
A quick peek at Clayton Kershaw's future
February, 8, 2012
Feb 8
11:36
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
The awesome Baseball-Reference.com lists something called "similarity scores" for each player. Originally introduced by Bill James, similarity scores takes a player and compares his basic statistics to other players, starting with 1000 points and subtracting points for degrees in difference in various categories. It doesn't adjust for era or ballparks so isn't necessarily meant to be serious sabermetric analysis, but it is a fun tool.
Anyway, here are Clayton Kershaw's top 10 most similar pitchers through age 23:
1. Vida Blue
2. Dontrelle Willis
3. Hal Schumacher
4. Ramon Martinez
5. Jimmy Dygert
6. Dean Chance
7. Dave Boswell
8. Ismael Valdez
9. Al Mamaux
10. Ken Holtzman
Some of these guys had excellent, long careers like Blue and Holtzman. Others developed arm problems and never matched their early dominance (Martinez, Chance, Boswell). Two were pitches from the first two decades of the 20th century (Dygert, Mamaux).
Anyway, none became Hall of Famers. Which I promptly tweeted.
Does this mean we should be worried about Kershaw's future? There's an old axiom that too many innings on a young pitcher's arm may not bold well for a long career. Of course, teams are more careful about the workloads they give to young pitchers now than even 20 years ago. Martinez, another young Dodgers ace, pitched 234 innings at age 22 -- not much different than the 233 Kershaw just threw at age 23. However, Martinez had at least eight games of 130-plus pitches (we're missing pitch counts for a few other starts as well). Kershaw's high game at age 22 was 118 pitches and he exceeded 120 just twice in 2011.
Kershaw is a pretty unique talent, so I didn't necessarily like that list of comps. Here's another list. Most strikeouts through age 23 since 1947:
1. Bert Blyleven
2. Dwight Gooden
3. Frank Tanana
4. Larry Dierker
5. Sam McDowell
6. Fernando Valenzuela
7. Don Drysdale
8. Felix Hernandez
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Gary Nolan
11. Dennis Eckersley
12. Catfish Hunter
Now, I think Dodgers fans will agree that's a little better list, with four Hall of Famers. Not incuding Kershaw and Hernandez, Nolan had the fewest wins on the list at 110. He was a dynamic talent who battled shoulder injuries after dominating in the majors at age 19.
Gooden, of course, also dominated at age 19 and won his Cy Young at age 20. We don't have pitch totals for those early years, but we do have them from 1988, Gooden's age-23 season. He had eight games of 120-plus pitches, including one with 138 and another with 131. Actually, not too bad. But who knows how many pitches he had thrown from 19 to 21, when he averaged 248 innings per season.
Stating the obvious: the Dodgers have done a terrific job handling Kershaw's workload, slowly ramping up his innings from 171 to 204 to 233. That's no guarantee he'll have a long and healthy career -- and he'll have to prove he can handle the 230-plus innings year after year like Hernandez has shown the past three seasons -- but the Dodgers have done everything possible to protect their prized left-hander. There's no reason not to expect Kershaw to contend for a few more Cy Young trophies.
The Dodgers open the season April 5 in San Diego. Their home opener is five days later against the Pirates, so Kershaw should start that one as well.
I know it's been a rough year for Dodgers fans, but let's hope they show up en masse to support their Cy Young winner. I know I'll be watching.
The born-in-Europe All-Star team
September, 6, 2011
9/06/11
5:37
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
It won't come with the same level of celebration as, say, a World Cup title, but the Mariners are recalling third baseman Alex Liddi, who was born and grew up in Italy. He'll be the first Italian-born major leaguer in nearly 50 years, and just the sixth ever, but the first one who didn't move to the United States or Canada at an early age.
Liddi is a legitimate prospect, a 23-year-old with big power potential. He hit .259 with 30 home runs at Triple-A Tacoma, but the 170 strikeouts in 138 games indicates plenty of holes in his swing. His glove reportedly needs works, although he fielded .943 at third base and actually played 24 games at shortstop. Liddi also will become the first graduate of Major League Baseball's European Academy to reach the majors.
In honor of Liddi's recall, let's produce a list of the best players born in Europe. There have been many European-born major leaguers, although almost all of the recent ones were sons of U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe. For example, Bruce Bochy was born in France and Ron Gardenhire was born in West Germany. Ireland has produced 46 major leaguers -- but nearly all were born before 1900 and immigrated to the U.S. The last Irish-born big leaguer was Joe Cleary, who graduated from high school in New York City and pitched one game for the Senators in 1945.
C Eddie Ainsmith (Russia). He wasn't much of a hitter, but he played from 1910 to 1924.
1B Jack Doyle (Ireland). He was known as Dirty Jack, which I think is all he needs to make this team. On his SABR bio page, Lyle Spatz writes, "Always a fierce competitor, Doyle engaged in brawls and fistfights with umpires, fans, opposing players, and even his own teammates. Two of his more notorious assaults were on umpires Tom Lynch in August 1897 and Bob Emslie on the 4th of July 1900. On several occasions he went into the stands to battle fans, including a spring training game in Norfolk in 1896. He made another foray into the stands in 1901 on his first visit to the Polo Grounds after having been traded from the Giants to the Cubs. More than once these battles led to his being arrested." He was good enough to last 17 seasons.
2B Glenn Hubbard (West Germany). Born on Hahn Air Force Base, Hubbard was a slick-fielding second baseman known mostly for his bushy beard while playing for the Braves in the late '70s and '80s. He had his best season in 1983 when he drove in 70 runs and made the All-Star team.
3B Jimmy Austin (Wales). Austin's father was a shipbuilder who moved to Ohio in 1885 and brought his family over in 1887. Austin was older than most of the Europeans immigrants, 8 years old when he came over. He reportedly didn't see his first baseball game until he was 14. Austin worked as a machinist and didn't begin a professional career until he was left jobless when the union went on strike. He didn't reach the majors until he was 29, but played into his 40s.
SS Steve Jeltz (West Germany). His father was in the military and Jeltz was a terrible hitter for the Phillies in the '80s, but I'm having troubling finding another shortstop with a significant career.
OF Bobby Thomson (Scotland). Yes, the most famous home run in major league history was struck by a Scotsman. Thomson was born in Glasgow but grew up on Staten Island, and the Giants signed him out of high school for $100. He hit 264 home runs and drove in 1,206 runs.
OF John Anderson (Norway). One of three major leaguers born in Norway, "Honest John" played in the majors from 1894 until 1908, one of the few switch-hitters of his era and, 6-foot-2, one of the era's biggest players. Powerful enough to once lead the NL in slugging percentage, he fashioned more than 1,800 hits in his career.
OF Elmer Valo (Czechoslovakia). Valo's family emigrated to the U.S. when he was 6. He had a 20-year career in the majors, batting .282 with 1,420 career hits.
OF Patsy Donovan (Ireland). Born in County Cork in 1863, Donovan's family moved to Lawrence, Mass., when he was 3 years old. Like many in the area, he eventually dropped out of school to work in the town's cotton mills, but later pursued a professional baseball career. A fleet-footed right fielder, he hit .301 in his career with 2,256 hits. He also managed 11 years in the majors, many years in the minors and even coached at St. Phillips Academy in Andover, Mass., where one of his players was George H.W. Bush.
P Bert Blyleven (Netherlands). Born in Zeist, Blyleven's father moved the family to Canada when Blyleven was 2 and then to California when he was 5.
P Tony Mullane (Ireland). Known as "The Apollo of the Box," Mullane won 284 games from 1881 through 1894. Mullane threw primarily right-handed, but on occasion would throw left-handed, apparently possible in part because he didn't wear a glove. He later became a Chicago police officer.
P Jack Quinn (Austria-Hungary). Quinn was one of the great old pitchers of all time, appearing in his final game in 1933 when he was 50 years old. He won 248 games in the majors, and more than another 100 in the minors. What's even more interesting is that nobody seems completely sure of his ancestry, age or even real name -- in part, because Quinn was purposely elusive about his background. Researcher Michael Scott published evidence in 2008 that Quinn was born in Stefurov in 1893, now part of Slovakia, but then part of Austria-Hungary.
P Tommy Bond (Ireland). One of the first stars of the National League, Bond led the circuit in wins and strikeouts in 1877 and 1878. He died in 1941, when he was 84 years old -- the last survivor of the NL's inaugural season in 1876.
P Moe Drabowsky (Poland). Born in 1935, Drabowsky escaped Poland in 1938, settling in Connecticut. Pitching mostly out of the bullpen, he went 88-105 with a 3.71 ERA over 17 seasons.
Manager: Harry Wright (England). The Hall of Famer was born in Sheffield in 1935. His family moved to New York when he was 3 and his father found work as a bowler, coach and groundskeeper at the St. George's Cricket Club. Wright moved to Cincinnati where he eventually helped build the first professional team and he later managed the Boston Red Stockings of the National Association and National League, as well as Providence and Philadelphia.
Liddi is a legitimate prospect, a 23-year-old with big power potential. He hit .259 with 30 home runs at Triple-A Tacoma, but the 170 strikeouts in 138 games indicates plenty of holes in his swing. His glove reportedly needs works, although he fielded .943 at third base and actually played 24 games at shortstop. Liddi also will become the first graduate of Major League Baseball's European Academy to reach the majors.
In honor of Liddi's recall, let's produce a list of the best players born in Europe. There have been many European-born major leaguers, although almost all of the recent ones were sons of U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe. For example, Bruce Bochy was born in France and Ron Gardenhire was born in West Germany. Ireland has produced 46 major leaguers -- but nearly all were born before 1900 and immigrated to the U.S. The last Irish-born big leaguer was Joe Cleary, who graduated from high school in New York City and pitched one game for the Senators in 1945.
C Eddie Ainsmith (Russia). He wasn't much of a hitter, but he played from 1910 to 1924.
1B Jack Doyle (Ireland). He was known as Dirty Jack, which I think is all he needs to make this team. On his SABR bio page, Lyle Spatz writes, "Always a fierce competitor, Doyle engaged in brawls and fistfights with umpires, fans, opposing players, and even his own teammates. Two of his more notorious assaults were on umpires Tom Lynch in August 1897 and Bob Emslie on the 4th of July 1900. On several occasions he went into the stands to battle fans, including a spring training game in Norfolk in 1896. He made another foray into the stands in 1901 on his first visit to the Polo Grounds after having been traded from the Giants to the Cubs. More than once these battles led to his being arrested." He was good enough to last 17 seasons.
2B Glenn Hubbard (West Germany). Born on Hahn Air Force Base, Hubbard was a slick-fielding second baseman known mostly for his bushy beard while playing for the Braves in the late '70s and '80s. He had his best season in 1983 when he drove in 70 runs and made the All-Star team.
3B Jimmy Austin (Wales). Austin's father was a shipbuilder who moved to Ohio in 1885 and brought his family over in 1887. Austin was older than most of the Europeans immigrants, 8 years old when he came over. He reportedly didn't see his first baseball game until he was 14. Austin worked as a machinist and didn't begin a professional career until he was left jobless when the union went on strike. He didn't reach the majors until he was 29, but played into his 40s.
SS Steve Jeltz (West Germany). His father was in the military and Jeltz was a terrible hitter for the Phillies in the '80s, but I'm having troubling finding another shortstop with a significant career.
OF Bobby Thomson (Scotland). Yes, the most famous home run in major league history was struck by a Scotsman. Thomson was born in Glasgow but grew up on Staten Island, and the Giants signed him out of high school for $100. He hit 264 home runs and drove in 1,206 runs.
OF John Anderson (Norway). One of three major leaguers born in Norway, "Honest John" played in the majors from 1894 until 1908, one of the few switch-hitters of his era and, 6-foot-2, one of the era's biggest players. Powerful enough to once lead the NL in slugging percentage, he fashioned more than 1,800 hits in his career.
OF Elmer Valo (Czechoslovakia). Valo's family emigrated to the U.S. when he was 6. He had a 20-year career in the majors, batting .282 with 1,420 career hits.
OF Patsy Donovan (Ireland). Born in County Cork in 1863, Donovan's family moved to Lawrence, Mass., when he was 3 years old. Like many in the area, he eventually dropped out of school to work in the town's cotton mills, but later pursued a professional baseball career. A fleet-footed right fielder, he hit .301 in his career with 2,256 hits. He also managed 11 years in the majors, many years in the minors and even coached at St. Phillips Academy in Andover, Mass., where one of his players was George H.W. Bush.
P Bert Blyleven (Netherlands). Born in Zeist, Blyleven's father moved the family to Canada when Blyleven was 2 and then to California when he was 5.
P Tony Mullane (Ireland). Known as "The Apollo of the Box," Mullane won 284 games from 1881 through 1894. Mullane threw primarily right-handed, but on occasion would throw left-handed, apparently possible in part because he didn't wear a glove. He later became a Chicago police officer.
P Jack Quinn (Austria-Hungary). Quinn was one of the great old pitchers of all time, appearing in his final game in 1933 when he was 50 years old. He won 248 games in the majors, and more than another 100 in the minors. What's even more interesting is that nobody seems completely sure of his ancestry, age or even real name -- in part, because Quinn was purposely elusive about his background. Researcher Michael Scott published evidence in 2008 that Quinn was born in Stefurov in 1893, now part of Slovakia, but then part of Austria-Hungary.
P Tommy Bond (Ireland). One of the first stars of the National League, Bond led the circuit in wins and strikeouts in 1877 and 1878. He died in 1941, when he was 84 years old -- the last survivor of the NL's inaugural season in 1876.
P Moe Drabowsky (Poland). Born in 1935, Drabowsky escaped Poland in 1938, settling in Connecticut. Pitching mostly out of the bullpen, he went 88-105 with a 3.71 ERA over 17 seasons.
Manager: Harry Wright (England). The Hall of Famer was born in Sheffield in 1935. His family moved to New York when he was 3 and his father found work as a bowler, coach and groundskeeper at the St. George's Cricket Club. Wright moved to Cincinnati where he eventually helped build the first professional team and he later managed the Boston Red Stockings of the National Association and National League, as well as Providence and Philadelphia.
Podcast: Phillies, Red Sox top rankings
July, 25, 2011
7/25/11
4:53
PM ET
By
Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
The members of the Baseball Today podcast team enjoyed their weekend -- some more than others -- and so it was back to work to help create Monday’s fine show, as Mark Simon and I aimed to entertain, with these topics:
1. Most of the show was spent looking ahead, but we share our thoughts on a fine Hall of Fame weekend as well.
2. If it’s Monday we rank the top teams from 1 to 10, and of course our lists look a bit different. Did America’s team make the cut?
3. Oh, to be a Seattle Mariners fan. At least things should get better this week at Yankee Stad-- ... ugh.
4. With Mark planning a trip to Cincinnati on Tuesday to see his beloved Mets, we check out listener suggestions on where to dine, and Mark has a treat for those who meet him!
5. Mark brings great insight in his Simon Says segment, discussing historical facts about Cincinnati, the best players on glove flips and why Randy Choate did not quite make history recently.
Plus: Excellent emails, the matchup of young pitchers in Los Angeles, when we knew we wouldn’t be big leaguers and more on the heat, all on Monday’s hot Baseball Today podcast!
1. Most of the show was spent looking ahead, but we share our thoughts on a fine Hall of Fame weekend as well.
2. If it’s Monday we rank the top teams from 1 to 10, and of course our lists look a bit different. Did America’s team make the cut?
3. Oh, to be a Seattle Mariners fan. At least things should get better this week at Yankee Stad-- ... ugh.
4. With Mark planning a trip to Cincinnati on Tuesday to see his beloved Mets, we check out listener suggestions on where to dine, and Mark has a treat for those who meet him!
5. Mark brings great insight in his Simon Says segment, discussing historical facts about Cincinnati, the best players on glove flips and why Randy Choate did not quite make history recently.
Plus: Excellent emails, the matchup of young pitchers in Los Angeles, when we knew we wouldn’t be big leaguers and more on the heat, all on Monday’s hot Baseball Today podcast!
It's Friday, it's hot and the trade rumors are flying fast and furious. But let's take a break and check on some links.
- Our friends at The Platoon Advantage have a fun list where they pick one player from each franchise that fans just can't judge rationally. Like Braves fans and Jeff Francoeur. Or, in the opposite direction, Ryan Howard and Phillies fans. Anyway, take a look at their list and join the debate.
- Chip Buck writes that Adrian Gonzalez isn't the AL MVP right now ... and maybe not even the Red Sox team MVP.
- There has been a lot of controversy on how the Rockies have handled former No. 1 pick Tyler Matzek, who was sent home for a short time this season due to an inability to throw strikes. Logan Burdine of Blake Street Bulletin takes a look at the issues.
- The Human Cannonball ... maybe coming soon to a minor league park near you!
- Mark Simon on Ray Knight's magical 1986 season.
- Paging Ryan Zimmerman ...
- Meet the Pirates (part 2!).
- My friend Jim Baker has a blog over at SB Nation. Check it out.
- Chris Jaffe at The Hardball Times with 10 things you may not know about Bert Blyleven.
- Joe Posnanski with stuff on Chris Getz, Adam Dunn and best seasons by age.
- Aaron Gleeman points out that Justin Verlander has had 40 straight starts with 100-plus pitches, the most since 1988 (the first year we have pitch data).
After listing the youngest MVP winners in my previous post, here's a list of the all-time all-young team, the best seasons by players in their age-22 (or younger) seasons*:
C -- Johnny Bench, 1970 Reds (22). The MVP winner led the NL with 45 home runs and 148 RBIs and won the Gold Glove after throwing out 48 percent of basestealers. According to Baseball-Reference's WAR figure, three of the top four 22-and-under catcher seasons belong to Bench (Bill Freehan's 1964 sneaks in). That's why Bench was the most popular baseball player in the early '70s.
1B -- Jimmie Foxx, 1929 A's (21). Only three first basemen accumulated a 5.0 WAR or better at 22 or younger: Foxx (twice), Stuffy McInnis (twice) and Hal Trosky. Foxx hit .354 with 33 home runs and led the AL with a .463 on-base percentage in '29.
2B -- Eddie Collins, 1909 A's (22). I think we'll find that most of the big offensive seasons at these young ages came from outfielders. Based on WAR, Collins is a landslide winner for his sterling .347/.417/.450 line from '09. Tack on 67 steals and great defense and he's an amazing four wins better than the next-best season, Joe Morgan's 1965 campaign for Houston.
3B -- Eddie Mathews, 1953 Braves (21). Mathews' second season in the bigs was so spectacular -- 47 home runs, 135 RBIs, .406 OBP, .627 slugging -- that it put unfair expectations on him the rest of his career. He remained one of the NL's best players throughout his 20s, but his last All-Star appearance came when he was 30.
SS -- Alex Rodriguez, 1996 Mariners (20). Slight edge over Cal Ripken's 1983 or A-Rod's 1998. In '96, in his first full season, he hit line drive after line drive after line drive. He hit .356 with 54 doubles and 36 home runs and didn't turn 21 until late in July.
LF -- Ted Williams, 1941 Red Sox (22). Rickey Henderson was awesome in '80 (100 steals, .420 OBP), but Ted hit .406.
CF -- Cesar Cedeno, 1972 Astros (21). Hit .320/.385/.537 in the Astrodome, with 55 stolen bases. At the time, he looked like a sure bet Hall of Famer. As predicted, many great young center fielders to choose from -- Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr., Tris Speaker, Andruw Jones ... which tells how good Cedeno was.
RF -- Ty Cobb, 1909 Tigers (22). Won the Triple Crown while also leading the league in runs, hits, stolen bases, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. I'd say that was a pretty good season.
P -- Dwight Gooden, 1985 Mets (20). Went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA, 16 complete games and eight shutouts. Should have won the MVP Award, but received just one first-place vote. Strange because Roger Clemens would win the AL MVP the next season with an identical 24-4 record.
P -- Bob Feller, 1940 Indians (21). If you think Gooden was worked hard, Feller went 27-11 with 31 complete games and 320 innings pitched.
P -- Vida Blue, 1971 A's (21). As mentioned earlier, he's the youngest player to win the MVP Award. With a blazing fastball, he went 24-8 with a 1.82 ERA and 301 strikeouts in 312 innings. He had a long, successful career, but was never again as dominant.
P --Bert Blyleven, 1973 Twins (22). People forget how good Blyleven was at a young age. He went 20-17, but led the AL in adjusted ERA and threw nine shutouts while pitching 325 innings.
P -- Joe Wood, 1912 Red Sox (22). His 34-5 record was impressive even for 1912. They called him Smoky because of his fastball, and Walter Johnson once said Wood threw harder. Wood led the Red Sox to the World Series title but a broken thumb the next season led to arm problems that eventually ended his pitching career (he made it back to the majors as an outfielder).
*22 as of June 30 of that season.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.
C -- Johnny Bench, 1970 Reds (22). The MVP winner led the NL with 45 home runs and 148 RBIs and won the Gold Glove after throwing out 48 percent of basestealers. According to Baseball-Reference's WAR figure, three of the top four 22-and-under catcher seasons belong to Bench (Bill Freehan's 1964 sneaks in). That's why Bench was the most popular baseball player in the early '70s.
1B -- Jimmie Foxx, 1929 A's (21). Only three first basemen accumulated a 5.0 WAR or better at 22 or younger: Foxx (twice), Stuffy McInnis (twice) and Hal Trosky. Foxx hit .354 with 33 home runs and led the AL with a .463 on-base percentage in '29.
2B -- Eddie Collins, 1909 A's (22). I think we'll find that most of the big offensive seasons at these young ages came from outfielders. Based on WAR, Collins is a landslide winner for his sterling .347/.417/.450 line from '09. Tack on 67 steals and great defense and he's an amazing four wins better than the next-best season, Joe Morgan's 1965 campaign for Houston.
3B -- Eddie Mathews, 1953 Braves (21). Mathews' second season in the bigs was so spectacular -- 47 home runs, 135 RBIs, .406 OBP, .627 slugging -- that it put unfair expectations on him the rest of his career. He remained one of the NL's best players throughout his 20s, but his last All-Star appearance came when he was 30.
SS -- Alex Rodriguez, 1996 Mariners (20). Slight edge over Cal Ripken's 1983 or A-Rod's 1998. In '96, in his first full season, he hit line drive after line drive after line drive. He hit .356 with 54 doubles and 36 home runs and didn't turn 21 until late in July.
LF -- Ted Williams, 1941 Red Sox (22). Rickey Henderson was awesome in '80 (100 steals, .420 OBP), but Ted hit .406.
CF -- Cesar Cedeno, 1972 Astros (21). Hit .320/.385/.537 in the Astrodome, with 55 stolen bases. At the time, he looked like a sure bet Hall of Famer. As predicted, many great young center fielders to choose from -- Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Ken Griffey Jr., Tris Speaker, Andruw Jones ... which tells how good Cedeno was.
RF -- Ty Cobb, 1909 Tigers (22). Won the Triple Crown while also leading the league in runs, hits, stolen bases, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. I'd say that was a pretty good season.
P -- Dwight Gooden, 1985 Mets (20). Went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA, 16 complete games and eight shutouts. Should have won the MVP Award, but received just one first-place vote. Strange because Roger Clemens would win the AL MVP the next season with an identical 24-4 record.
P -- Bob Feller, 1940 Indians (21). If you think Gooden was worked hard, Feller went 27-11 with 31 complete games and 320 innings pitched.
P -- Vida Blue, 1971 A's (21). As mentioned earlier, he's the youngest player to win the MVP Award. With a blazing fastball, he went 24-8 with a 1.82 ERA and 301 strikeouts in 312 innings. He had a long, successful career, but was never again as dominant.
P --Bert Blyleven, 1973 Twins (22). People forget how good Blyleven was at a young age. He went 20-17, but led the AL in adjusted ERA and threw nine shutouts while pitching 325 innings.
P -- Joe Wood, 1912 Red Sox (22). His 34-5 record was impressive even for 1912. They called him Smoky because of his fastball, and Walter Johnson once said Wood threw harder. Wood led the Red Sox to the World Series title but a broken thumb the next season led to arm problems that eventually ended his pitching career (he made it back to the majors as an outfielder).
*22 as of June 30 of that season.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.
Matt Garza's wacky double dozen effort
April, 4, 2011
4/04/11
1:31
PM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
Beyond having to see his effort go for naught thanks to Carlos Marmol's blown save, Matt Garza's 12-hit, 12-strikeout game against the Pirates put him in fairly exclusive company historically. As Rob Bradford of Baseball Prospectus notes, such a double-dozen combo had previously been achieved just 22 times from 1919 to the present, and just seven times since the lowering of the mound after 1968, most recently by Curt Schilling a decade ago.
Garza Even among the most recent efforts, not all are the same sort of thing as Garza's seven-inning quality start. Bob Gibson's game in 1970 was a 14-inning victory over the recently invented Padres, while Bert Blyleven's contribution to the list in 1975 involved the first 10 innings of a 12-inning loss for the Twins. And Blyleven allowed his sixth run in the top of the 10th, after having already faced 37 batters through nine. If you think that's a horrifying feat, it pales next to Red Ruffing's 1927 spin, facing 73 batters by pitching the first 15 frames against the Red Sox in the first game of a doubleheader against the Yankees; the Yankees lost the game in 18, but they came back to win a 55-minute, five-inning shutout in the second.
Blyleven's game was the only one of the seven before Garza's where the dude dealing a double dozen didn't get a win -- and the only time before which puts Garza in even more exclusive company. Nobody has lost a double-dozen since "Blue Moon" Odom did in the bottom of the 13th on July 29, 1968.
The more basic point is that you have to be a pretty good pitcher to achieve this sort of statistical oddity. Schilling and Todd Stottlemyre are the two non-Hall of Famers among the most recent seven, with Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, and the newly elected Blyleven rounding out the field. Garza has a long road ahead of him before he might ever enter that kind of conversation, but there are those who will argue for Schilling's eventual election, of course.
Blyleven's game was the only one of the seven before Garza's where the dude dealing a double dozen didn't get a win -- and the only time before which puts Garza in even more exclusive company. Nobody has lost a double-dozen since "Blue Moon" Odom did in the bottom of the 13th on July 29, 1968.
The more basic point is that you have to be a pretty good pitcher to achieve this sort of statistical oddity. Schilling and Todd Stottlemyre are the two non-Hall of Famers among the most recent seven, with Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, and the newly elected Blyleven rounding out the field. Garza has a long road ahead of him before he might ever enter that kind of conversation, but there are those who will argue for Schilling's eventual election, of course.
Honestly, I can't remember seeing the baseball writers as worked up about anything as they are about Roberto Alomar. Here's Ken Rosenthal with a fairly representative opinion:
Rosenthal isn't the only prominent BBWAA member calling for change. Shoot, Buster Olney believes the writers shouldn't be involved at all (Jeff Pearlman agrees, snarkily).
Rather than editorialize -- Rosenthal and Olney have beaten me to the punch, with style -- I'll simply offer a bit of knowledge and a humble prediction.
First, Rosenthal is absolutely right about the voting population. I've written about this at some length, and if the die-hard baseball fans knew who's being sent Hall of Fame ballots every year, it would be a major scandal.
Or a minor kerfuffle, at least.
But my prediction is that little will come of this. Sure, it would be a neat story if the snubbing of Alomar wound up as the tipping point for real reform. But the BBWAA is a big ship that takes a great deal of time and effort to change directions. I suspect that if a candidate like Alomar was repeatedly snubbed, something might actually change after a few years. But it takes time, and any real movement toward change will likely be forgotten a year from now, when Alomar is elected. The next controversy will come in a few years if Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds aren't elected. That will result in a great deal of hand-wringing and self-reflection, and might eventually lead to something.
I take it back. I will editorialize. I agree with Rosenthal the system is flawed. I don't necessarily agree that the writers shouldn't be involved, but I believe they (we) should be somewhat less involved. But be careful what you wish for. If the BBWAA culls all the current voters who don't really pay any attention to baseball -- and there are many dozens of them -- we'll have more candidates elected. How many more, I don't know. But more, for sure.
More isn't necessarily bad. But more wouldn't mean Tim Raines and Alan Trammell. It would mean Jack Morris and Lee Smith. The standards for election would inevitably be lowered. Not maintained. Lowered.
The system that's in place, however flawed, usually arrives at a good result, eventually. It took too long, but eventually Ryne Sandberg and Gary Carter were elected. It's taking too long, but eventually Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar will be elected. Raines and Trammell? Sure, they've been terribly jobbed. But the Hall of Fame would never endorse any reform that would get either of them elected.
Be careful what you wish for.
Our membership is too bloated, too riddled with voters who do not take the process seriously enough to educate themselves properly.
Oh, we usually get it right, and we’ll surely get it right next year with Alomar, who fell short by only eight votes. But the eligibility requirements for voters need to be tightened before worse mistakes are made.
To vote for the Hall, a writer must be a 10-year member of the BBWAA. But one sports editor from each outlet also is eligible, and so are feature writers and current or former columnists who rarely attend games.
The sports editors should be eliminated immediately; they simply do not develop the same feel for the game as writers who cover the sport regularly. Drawing the line on feature writers and columnists would be more difficult; many columnists, in particular, are astute observers of the game. But somehow, the local chapters need to police their memberships more diligently. There has to be a better way.
--snip--
Virtually every voter I know is honored to participate in the process. Virtually every voter I know considers the ballot a tremendous responsibility. It’s the voters I don’t know — the ones I never see at ballparks — who worry me. I fear that some do not give the candidates the consideration they deserve.
The BBWAA has done a fine job in recent years of adding Web-based writers, including several whose work is strongly influenced by sabermetrics. The next step is to go the other way, trim the fat from the membership, purge those who do not study the game closely enough to warrant Hall of Fame votes.
The Alomar snub is an embarrassment.
If people’s feelings get hurt, too bad.
Rosenthal isn't the only prominent BBWAA member calling for change. Shoot, Buster Olney believes the writers shouldn't be involved at all (Jeff Pearlman agrees, snarkily).
Rather than editorialize -- Rosenthal and Olney have beaten me to the punch, with style -- I'll simply offer a bit of knowledge and a humble prediction.
First, Rosenthal is absolutely right about the voting population. I've written about this at some length, and if the die-hard baseball fans knew who's being sent Hall of Fame ballots every year, it would be a major scandal.
Or a minor kerfuffle, at least.
But my prediction is that little will come of this. Sure, it would be a neat story if the snubbing of Alomar wound up as the tipping point for real reform. But the BBWAA is a big ship that takes a great deal of time and effort to change directions. I suspect that if a candidate like Alomar was repeatedly snubbed, something might actually change after a few years. But it takes time, and any real movement toward change will likely be forgotten a year from now, when Alomar is elected. The next controversy will come in a few years if Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds aren't elected. That will result in a great deal of hand-wringing and self-reflection, and might eventually lead to something.
I take it back. I will editorialize. I agree with Rosenthal the system is flawed. I don't necessarily agree that the writers shouldn't be involved, but I believe they (we) should be somewhat less involved. But be careful what you wish for. If the BBWAA culls all the current voters who don't really pay any attention to baseball -- and there are many dozens of them -- we'll have more candidates elected. How many more, I don't know. But more, for sure.
More isn't necessarily bad. But more wouldn't mean Tim Raines and Alan Trammell. It would mean Jack Morris and Lee Smith. The standards for election would inevitably be lowered. Not maintained. Lowered.
The system that's in place, however flawed, usually arrives at a good result, eventually. It took too long, but eventually Ryne Sandberg and Gary Carter were elected. It's taking too long, but eventually Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar will be elected. Raines and Trammell? Sure, they've been terribly jobbed. But the Hall of Fame would never endorse any reform that would get either of them elected.
Be careful what you wish for.
BACK TO TOP
Page: 1
