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So, what's gone wrong this season for the World Series champions? Well ... Buster Posey is out for the year. ... Freddy Sanchez just joined Posey on the out-for-the-year list after dislocating his shoulder. ... Brandon Belt is on the DL with a broken wrist. ... Aubrey Huff, last season's best hitter, is hitting .234 with a sub-.300 on-base percentage. ... Miguel Tejada is hitting .227 with one home run and looks older than a redwood tree -- and moves about as well as one. ... Pablo Sandoval hasn't played since April 29. ... Andres Torres missed nearly 30 games. ... Nobody has more than eight home runs. They're 15th in the NL in runs scored. ... Barry Zito has made just three starts. Madison Bumgarner is 2-8. ... Tim Lincecum has allowed 16 runs his past three starts.

Let me catch my breath. So, what's gone right?

The Giants are 37-29 and leading the NL West by one game over the Diamondbacks. That .561 winning percentage puts them on pace to win 91 games, just one off last year's 92.

Of course, we know how they're winning: great starting pitching, great bullpen. Their 3.27 ERA from the rotation ranks just behind Philadelphia (3.20) and Atlanta (3.20) in the NL. The bullpen ERA is 3.20, seventh in the NL. The bullpen also has a 17-6 record, as the Giants completed their 20th comeback win of the season on Sunday, most in the majors. They're 18-9 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra innings.

Can they keep it up? Their record in one-run games is probably unsustainable, so they'll have to score more runs. Ryan Vogelsong is unlikely to keep pitching like this: In his past seven starts, he's allowed six runs. Their run differential indicates they should be .500, not eight games over, so while they haven't been hitting, they have been getting timely hits, something else that might be unsustainable.

Bill Hall is not the answer at second base. Signed after getting released by the Astros, he was hitting .221 with a 56/9 strikeout/walk ratio. The only decent year at the plate he's had since 2007 was last season with the Red Sox. He's merely adequate defensively, and that might be kind. They're going to have to improve at second base. Of course, they also have to improve at shortstop, where Tejada and Mike Fontenot are not the answers.

On the positive side, Sandoval will return Tuesday to help boost the offense. Zito just made a good rehab start in Class A, so when he's ready the team will have six quality starters, opening up trade possibilities. The Giants are 10-8 since Posey was injured. The bullpen is so deep they can't even find enough innings for Sergio Romo and his 0.71 WHIP.

But it's that rotation that still makes them the team to beat. Despite the team's offensive struggles, I wouldn't bet against Lincecum, Matt Cain and company just yet.

Joe Janish over at Red Leg Nation did a good job compiling the ZiPS Projections by Dan Szymborski to figure out the projected NL Central standings for 2011. I'm not going to give you a homerific projection of the Astros' season. I've got a pretty good record of being excessively critical of the Astros, and I'm certainly not turning around on that to say they're going to the World Series or anything absurd like that.

But don't you have to question the methodology of anything that places pretty much any team behind the Pirates?

The pessimist in me is perfectly willing to buy Szymborski's breakdown that compares the Astros to the Orioles in the way they keep getting just enough wins to convince management that the team doesn't need to go in a drastic new position. He's right that it's a slow downward spiral and I've been saying as much for years.

But, even granting that it is true, there are a number of reasons to think the Astros will not finish behind the Pirates.

First of all, the Astros have history on their side. In 17 years of sharing the division, the Astros have never finished behind the Pirates. They have had some scares in recent years, but the Astros never finished last in the division and have never finished behind the Pirates. History can change at any moment and that's the beauty of sports, but I'm looking at a Pirates team whose best full-time starter (Ross Ohlendorf) posted a 4.01 ERA last year, and I'm not seeing any reason to think the pattern of the Astros beating out the Pirates is going to change this year.

Secondly, the Astros' offense should get better this year. Nobody's going to confuse them with the 1927 Yankees or even the 2004 Astros, but there's plenty of reason to think the Astros will be better with the bats in 2011. They added Bill Hall and Clint Barmes. Chris Johnson will probably take a step back from his surprising rookie campaign, but there's no reason to think that Brett Wallace and Jason Castro won't see improvement, and no reason to think that Carlos Lee and Michael Bourn can't rebound and hit more like they did in 2009. They were a team in flux last year, and even with their complete offensive futility, I'll let you take a stab at one of the two teams that finished behind the Astros in virtually every offensive category. Did you guess? Yeah … it was the Pirates.

Thirdly, the Astros have pitching. You can knock their offense from here to October, and maybe their pitching even overperformed a little bit last year with a resurgent season from Brett Myers. But Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and J.A. Happ lead a solid rotation (3.30 ERA last year for those three) and the bullpen is coming together with great young guys like Fernando Abad, Wilton Lopez and Mark Melancon, with Brandon Lyon anchoring the closer's spot. Again, nothing that will compete for the World Series, but certainly good enough to finish ahead of the Pirates and maybe even enough to surprise other NL opponents.

I don't write this to proclaim the virtues of a team that might be just this much better than the lowly Pirates. I write it to say that this statistical finding doesn't pass the smell test. I'm sure that Dan Szymborski has put a lot of thought and work into his equations, but when those equations come out with the standings shown by Red Leg Nation, it might be an invitation back to the drawing board. Or, at the very least, a reminder that all the stats in the world will never tell us what we often know just by looking at what's in front of us.

Austin Swafford writes Austin's Astros 290 Blog, a blog about the Houston Astros. You can follow him on Twitter.

From the tail end of Theo Epstein's conference call today (which was mostly about exercising the one-year option in David Ortiz's contract):

Yeah, we’d love to have Bill Hall back in the right circumstances. He really, I thought, blossomed this year in a super-utility role. He played so well, in fact, especially in terms of his power production that he might attract interest from a number of teams as an everyday player and get more substantial playing time. And if that happens, I’m sure that would be of interest to Billy. If later in the offseason, he’s in a position to consider a super-utility role and based on the moves we’ve made with our everyday players, that type of player makes sense on our roster, I’m sure we’ll be talking. He was nothing but a great teammate while he was here and a contributing player.”

I think the term "super utility" is a fairly recent invention, don't you?

The first player I recall being used in a super-utility role was Tony Phillips.

Originally a shortstop, Phillips later became a second/third baseman, and finally qualified for super-utility status by becoming an occasional outfielder as well. In 1988, Phillips started one game at shortstop, one game in right field, three games in center field, 14 games in left field, 14 games at third base, and 20 games at second base. He also appeared in three games at first base. Which is to say, he did everything except pitch and catch.

All this was masterminded by Tony La Russa, of course.

Phillips might have been the first player who did that (except as a stunt), but my quick-and-dirty search suggests that the "first Tony Phillips" was actually Cesar Tovar, who played for the Twins in the 1960s. In 1968 (for example), Tovar started eight games in right field, 12 at second base, 15 in left field, 20 at shortstop, 29 in center field, and 68 at third base. Tovar also played first base, catcher, and pitcher for one inning apiece in this game. Which obviously was a stunt, as he became the first major leaguer to play all nine positions in one game. Granted, a stunt that worked exceptionally well, as Tovar pitched a scoreless first inning and scored one of the Twins' runs in a 2-1 victory.

Tovar did this sort of thing for about six years, and usually drew a bit of down-ballot MVP support, probably because of his versatility. When we think of Bill Hall and Tony Phillips -- and Chone Figgins in 2004 and '5 -- we should think of Cesar Tovar, the first Super Utility Man.

Again, as near I can tell. Of course we can all come up with our own definition. But the important thing is that you have to play the infield and the outfield. If you're just playing the infield, you're a utility infielder; if just the outfield, a fourth outfielder (unless you're Andres Torres, in which case you're a center fielder who's occasionally slumming it). And you also have to play more than one position in the infield.

Last year, Hall started 34 games in the outfield and 51 games in the infield, but all 51 were at third base.

This year, Hall started 53 games in the outfield and 43 games in the infield: 38 at second base, three at shortstop, two at third base. My preference would be to see a Super Utility Man play a few more games at shortstop or third base. But who am I to argue with Theo Epstein?

Why will the Brewers contend in 2011?

1. The Brewers have already patched up their bullpen.
On opening day, the Brewers' bullpen contained (among others) Trevor Hoffman and Claudio Vargas. After two awful starts, Jeff Suppan joined this awful duo. Those three all had ERAs above 6.90 in April and May, and they combined for a stunning minus-2.96 WPA – mostly via Hoffman and his five blown saves, but also from the general incompetence of the trio. That means that this group was three wins worse than merely average relievers.

Since then, Hoffman has been replaced as closer by John Axford, Suppan has been replaced in the rotation by Chris Narveson and in the bullpen by Kameron Loe. Zach Braddock has taken the role of top lefty from Mitch Stetter (a middling-at-best LOOGY who was utterly incompetent against RHB). Vargas’s low-leverage innings have been split between players like Chris Capuano, who is an interesting project if nothing else, and David Riske, who is merely biding the time until his contract expires.

Axford, Braddock, and Loe have been fantastic since joining the Brewers, combining for plus-2.22 WPA in their time on the team, largely coming after Jeff Suppan’s June 7 release. All three will be under team control next year, making them near locks to be important bullpen pieces next season, added to relievers Carlos Villanueva and Todd Coffey.

2. The Brewers have a favorable payroll situation.
With the toxic contracts of Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall, and others coming off the books, the Brewers will shed roughly $45 million in contracts after this season. After arbitration raises, I estimate that the Brewers will be about $25 million below the 2010 opening day payroll, even if Prince Fielder remains a Brewer. That means they'll have some money to play with.

The Brewers aren't losing much, either. The only important player from 2010 who's on his way out is Jim Edmonds, but he can be replaced in-house by either Carlos Gomez or Lorenzo Cain. At every other position, the Brewers are solid. CHONE's August update projects the Brewers with one above-average player (+2.0 WAR per 150 games) at each position.

That means the Brewers can spend most, if not all, of that "extra" $25 million on their weakness: starting pitching. The market this winter isn't great, but Javier Vazquez, Brandon Webb, Ted Lilly, Jon Garland (likely to decline his mutual option), Jake Westbrook, and Kevin Millwood, among others, are all interesting options. Perhaps a better move would be to use some of that cash to deal with a team like the Marlins, who might attempt to move Ricky Nolasco's high arbitration award in the offseason. They could also trade Prince Fielder for pitching, as Mat Gamel could step in and likely be an average first baseman. For the right pitcher, trading Fielder could actually make the Brewers better in 2011.

The roster certainly isn't perfect, but much of it is returning and there's money to fix the holes.

3. The NL Central is weak.
St. Louis has a good team this year, certainly, but it's not without its holes. Perennial All-Stars Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Matt Holliday form an excellent core, but there are question marks after those four players. The back of the rotation has struggled mightily, as the Cardinals have attempted patches with Blake Hawksworth and Jeff Suppan, eventually trading Ryan Ludwick away for Jake Westbrook. Losing Ludwick, one of the better right fielders in the NL, will hurt next year, and Westbrook will be a free agent. They also lose Brad Penny, who has been injured much of the year, and Felipe Lopez, who was an absolute steal in last year's free-agent market. The Cardinals have played like an 89-win team this season according to Beyond the Box Score's power rankings (looking at cW%). They have a modest amount of money to spend this year, but they are losing enough to the point where I wouldn't feel comfortable projecting any sort of major increase, especially given that St. Louis's top financial priority will be locking up Albert Pujols past 2011, the last year of his current contract.

The Cincinnati Reds have played about as well as the Cardinals so far this year, but there's really only one word to describe why I'm not super high on this team heading into next year: regression. Will Scott Rolen continue to be a power threat in his mid 30s? Is Mike Leake a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher despite skipping the minor leagues? Is Arthur Rhodes really one of the best left-handed relief pitchers in baseball? I'm inclined to say "no" to all of these questions. There's enough young talent on this Reds team to still be solid next season, and they might add Aroldis Chapman to the mix as well, and they won't have Edinson Volquez recovering from Tommy John surgery for half a season. That said, there's no reason to believe that the Reds are anything more than an 89-win team themselves, and simple regression says that we should expect something closer to 86 or 87.

4. "Contending" doesn't mean favorites.
The favorites to win the division next year will be, barring the unforeseen, Cincinnati and St. Louis, in some order and for good reason. However, they're not elite teams, and given the crazy things that can happen during the course of the season, they could each just as easily end up as .500 squads as 95-win teams. The Brewers look like a true talent 81-win team right now. They've played .519 baseball since releasing Suppan, and that's just above what the Beyond the Boxscore rankings expect (a .505 cW percent). I would feel pretty confident calling the roster on hand an 81-win team for next season.

The Brewers had a similar projection opening the season last year, and were given playoff odds of about 17 percent by Baseball Prospectus prior to the season. With the money available to plug holes in the rotation, the Brewers can definitely make themselves a preseason contender (say, 30-40 percent playoff odds) prior to the season, even if they're not favorites.

Jack Moore writes about the Brewers at Disciples of Uecker, a member of ESPN.com's SweetSpot Network.

Someday they'll remember this day in Milwaukee as "Black Wednesday" ... Tom Haudricourt:

The Brewers have fired pitching coach Bill Castro and replaced him with Class AAA Nashville pitching coach Chris Bosio.

In another drastic move, the Brewers have sent down shortstop J.J. Hardy and recalled Alcides Escobar from Nashville.

--snip--

Hardy, who does not have quite enough time in the majors to refuse an assignment in the minors, has struggled all year at the plate. He is batting .229 with 11 homers and 45 RBI in 371 at-bats.

Escobar, considered the team's top prospect, was batting .298 at Nashville with 24 doubles, six triples, four homers and 34 RBI in 109 games. He has 42 stolen bases and a .353 on-base percentage.

These moves are obviously being made to shake up the team, which has lost 23 of 35 games since July 1 and has been sleep-walking through the easiest part of its schedule.

Sending down Hardy will definitely shake up the clubhouse and create a buzz there. And firing Castro will send a message to the pitchers that their performances have not been satisfactory.

I don't consider firing a pitching coach all that drastic. Except for him. Particularly considering that Castro spent most of his playing career with the Brewers, and has served as a coach with the big club since 1992.

What's really drastic, though, is demoting an All-Star shortstop who hit 50 homers in the past two seasons. But this drastic move isn't just about production. After all, if it were merely a matter of replacing Hardy with Escobar, the Brewers could have waited until the 1st of September and done the same thing without ruffling Hardy's feathers quite so roughly.

This move -- all the moves, really, including the release of Bill Hall -- isn't just about winning, either. The Brewers are six-and-a-half games behind the Rockies in the wild-card standings, and well behind four other teams as well. It would take something just short of a miracle for them to pass all those teams.

So, no. This isn't about production or the standings or anything else we can count. It's about a franchise that won 90 games last year, is going to win roughly 80 this year, and is looking for scapegoats. Or looking to send a message to the guys who escaped the purge. Or (most likely) both.

Will it "work"? Tune in next summer.

As Tom Haudricort reports, the Brewers have recalled Mat Gamel, one of their top prospects. But where does he fit?

Gamel

The Brewers summoned Gamel, their top offensive prospect, to the majors Wednesday night in anticipation of using the third baseman as their designated hitter in interleague play.

To make room on the roster for Gamel, the Brewers sent reserve outfielder Brad Nelson outright to Class AAA Nashville. Nelson, who was hitless in 21 at-bats this season, including 14 pinch-hit appearances, has the right to decline the assignment and become a free agent.

In the coming weeks, the Brewers have three interleague series on the road, where the designated hitter will be used. The first of those series is May 22-24 in Minnesota.

Rather than wait for those series, the Brewers opted to summon Gamel from Nashville and let him get his feet get wet with some at-bats off the bench and perhaps an occasional start.

"He'll probably get some pinch-hits, get acclimated a little bit to the big leagues," said manager Ken Macha. "He may get a start. We'll see how that all plays out.

"This kid is probably our best prospect. I don't think the plan is to have him sitting on the bench."

--snip--

Selected in the fourth round of the 2005 June draft, Gamel is not known for his defense. He committed an astounding 53 errors at Class A Brevard County in 2007 and 32 combined last season at Class AA Huntsville and Nashville.

Gamel committed eight errors this season but most came in the first few weeks and reports said he was playing better in the field recently.

--snip--

Bill Hall, who has started 27 games at third base, has begun to struggle again against right-handed pitching (.215 batting average). But Melvin said the Gamel move doesn't signal a platoon or the possibility of trading Hall to open the position.

"We're not talking about a trade at this point," said Melvin. "That's not what this is about."

Maybe not. But Gamel's an excellent hitter. His line in 127 Double-A games: .329/.395/.537. His line in 38 Triple-A games: .321/.411/.607. Granted, that's not a great deal of Triple-A action, but what are you gonna do? The guy turns 24 this summer. Do you let him spend another month or two in Nashville, mashing, while Bill Hall flounders against right-handed pitchers?

The Brewers are 20-14. So are the Reds. So are the Cardinals. The Cubs are 19-14. This is most definitely not the time for timidity. If Gamel's good enough to DH, he's good enough to platoon with Hall -- who's solid against lefties -- at third base, with Hall or Craig Counsell coming in for defense when the Brewers are ahead.

The Brewers have enough talent in the organization to reach the playoffs this fall. But while that's most of the battle, there's more. In addition to getting a little lucky, you also have to get that talent on the field. The Twins didn't do that last year, and it cost them. After Gamel's stint ends as the DH, we'll see what the Brewers do with their talent.