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We drown in numbers and statistics these days, but here's one that sums up the crumbling state of the Boston Red Sox quite eloquently: Following Josh Beckett's implosion on Thursday night, Red Sox starters have now allowed five-plus runs in 14 starts; Nationals starters have done so once.

Here's another way. Fifty-three American League starting pitchers are qualified for the AL ERA title. Here's where Boston's five starters rank:

32. Jon Lester (4.29)
38. Daniel Bard (4.83)
46. Felix Doubront (5.29)
51. Josh Beckett (5.97)
53. Clay Buchholz (9.09)

OK, ERA can be a little misleading early in the season. Here's where those five guys rank among AL starters in strikeout/walk ratio:

27. Beckett
32. Doubront
41. Lester
48. Bard
51. Buchholz

The Red Sox are 12-19 for a lot of reasons: injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford and Andrew Bailey; a slow start from Adrian Gonzalez; a couple bullpen implosions; Bobby Valentine using outfielder Darnell McDonald to pitch in a tie game.

Those are all factors, but despite the injuries on offense, the Red Sox are still second in the AL in runs scored; the bullpen has five losses, but 14 teams have more; and Valentine is more lightning rod than explanation.

No, the responsibility rests with the starting rotation. Bard and Doubront have perhaps predictably been mediocre, but they've actually been improvements over Tim Wakefield and John Lackey, so the blame falls on the supposed big three of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz.

Beckett started in Fenway against Cleveland on Thursday, his first start since April 29 and first since the infamous "he cares more about golfing than pitching" story leaked to the media. Beckett actually had pitched pretty well since his five-homer disaster in his first start, posting a 2.93 ERA over his next four starts. While I'm happy to report that I didn't see any greasy fried chicken stains on his jersey, his evening was yet another May disaster for the Sox.

In the top of the second, with one run already in, Jack Hannahan hit a 2-2 changeup to right field for a two-out home run. Not surprisingly, the Fenway faithful let go with more than a few loud boos. In third inning, Jason Kipnis crushed a 3-2 cutter over the bullpen in right-center. After Asdrubal Cabrera singled, Beckett got ahead of Travis Hafner with two strikes but then threw four consecutive balls. Shin-Soo Choo doubled to right on a 2-0, four-seam fastball to score Cabrera. Michael Brantley fell behind two strikes, then lined a double into the gap in left-center on a 1-2 curveball, scoring two more runs and knocking Beckett from the bump in what would be an 8-3 Indians victory.

You can see the issues here: Even when he got ahead of batters, Beckett was unable to put them away. He used the whole tool box -- changeups, four-seamers, cutters, curveballs; the Indians hit them all. Six of the seven hits off Beckett went for extra bases.

I blurted out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast that Beckett is the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. That's probably unfair to a pitcher who has been good for a lot of years, a guy who had dominant postseason runs in 2003 and 2007 in leading the Marlins and Red Sox to World Series titles. Those playoff performances did inflate his reputation a bit, as his regular-season performances haven't been consistently at that level. He has received Cy Young votes just twice in his career (finishing second in 2007 and ninth in 2011). He hasn't exactly been CC Sabathia when it comes to durability, reaching 200 innings just three times and never topping 215. With the Red Sox, he's had two seasons of ERAs over 5.00.

Maybe 2012 is going to be one of those down years; Red Sox fans who saw Beckett and Lester collapse down the stretch expected leadership from Beckett, not reports on his golf swing.

Speaking of Lester, what has happened to the dominant left-hander of a few seasons ago? In 2009, he averaged 10.0 strikeout per nine innings, but that figure has dipped to 6.0 this season. His walks are up more than one per nine innings since 2009. His velocity is still fine; as Curt Schilling has pointed out, his command isn't, with Lester especially struggling in pitching to the outside corner against right-handed batters. Going back to his final 11 starts of 2011, Lester has a 4.16 ERA and a poor strikeout/walk ratio of 86/50. The stuff is still there, but we're going on 18 starts now of mediocre pitching.

Buchholz is an even bigger disaster, the worst starter in the majors so far. Unable to get the ball down in the zone, Buchholz has been pounded like a punching bag. Opponents are hitting .343 and slugging .613 off him. Essentially, the average hitter against Buchholz is David Ortiz. The Red Sox can't afford to keep sending him out there; he probably has one more start before a demotion to Triple-A or stint on the disabled list is necessary.

Eric Karabell made a good argument on the podcast: the Red Sox were 14-17 a year ago and only a historical collapse prevented them from reaching the playoffs. They're only two games worse now, he would suggest, so rationally they're far from out of it. Eric could also point out that Detroit and Arizona were both 14-17 after 31 games a year ago and won 95 and 94 games, respectively.

Eric is right, of course. The Red Sox aren't dead.

But with a 1-8 record in May and a starting rotation in shambles, they certainly look it.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

After a wild and wacky weekend around baseball, Mark Simon and I gathered to record Monday’s Baseball Today podcast , with hitters pitching, Power Rankings and ridiculous emails as our backdrop!

1. Chris Davis bests Darnell McDonald in a crazy and lengthy extra-inning affair at Fenway Park. Should hitters be pitching at all? And what does our able producer think about the struggling Red Sox and their manager?

2. The Washington Nationals needed a big weekend against the rival Phillies, and they got it, though the news from the outfield was a bit mixed.

3. It’s a Battle of the Beltway! Which team posted the better spot in the Power Rankings between the Orioles and Nationals? Also, why do Mark and I differ so much on the Rays?

4. Our Simon Says segment focuses on the weekly leaderboard and other players struggling worse than Albert Pujols. By the way, didja know he finally homered?

5. Our emailers have thoughts about the All-animal lineup and rotation, and the most common final score!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast, as we tell you who is most likely to throw a no-hitter today, and why a certain Phillies pitcher will have many eyes watching him.

On Thursday's Baseball Today podcast , Keith Law and I discuss both serious (depression) and non-serious (Bobby Valentine) issues. You’ll never forget which hand Liam Hendriks throws with after listening to our show.

1. Valentine’s lineup gaffe Wednesday might seem funny, but isn’t it somewhat embarrassing for the Red Sox organization?

2. The Yankees lose Michael Pineda for the season but an older guy is on the comeback trail.

3. Keith openly discusses his battles with depression and what Giants first baseman Aubrey Huff is going through.

4. It’s still only April, but at what point should we start to worry about struggling players like Albert Pujols, or take upstart teams like the Orioles and Nationals seriously?

5. Our emailers want to talk about two-sport starts (NFL draft is tonight!), sacrifice bunts and giving position players days off. Plus, we look closer at Thursday’s schedule.

So download and listen to Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast, and come back with us on Friday as me and Law preview the weekend!

Joe Girardi has his little black binder. Bobby Valentine has his ... cell phone.

As ESPNBoston's Gordon Edes reported last night, Valentine's original lineup card against Twins pitcher Liam Hendriks had Darnell McDonald and Kelly Shoppach in the starting lineup. The problem: Hendricks is right-handed, and Valentine usually plays Ryan Sweeney and Jarrod Saltalamacchia against right-handers. Saltamacchia caught the error and pointed it out to Valentine, who filled out a new lineup card with Sweeney and Salty playing.

Valentine blamed his cell phone.

As Edes wrote, "I looked on this thing," Valentine said, gesturing to his cellphone, "and there was no history on him. It had his name, and 'against left-handed hitting.' My fault. That's why you make these lineups out early enough."

Hey, I'll give this to Bobby V: Liam Hendriks sounds like a left-hander, no? Or maybe he just looked at Hendriks' career stats, saw he doesn't strike many guys out, and assumed Hendriks was a soft-tossing lefty. (Memo to Bobby: Twins pitchers don't strike batters out. Even the right-handers. So be careful there.)

But more seriously: It's 2012 and a manager is looking on his cell phone for information? The Red Sox have a $173 million payroll and Valentine is checking his phone to find out about Liam Hendriks? Where are the scouting reports? Shouldn't some Harvard grad making $22,000 be giving Valentine a big fat binder full of detailed stats, splits and so on? Make fun of Girardi's binder, but at least he's not pulling out a cell phone in the seventh inning.

I've always wondered this: Those of us who obsess over baseball know who Liam Hendriks is. We know he's from Australia, we know he's a typical Twins-type prospect who throws strikes and isn't overpowering. Major league managers have a lot to deal with -- mostly worrying about their own team -- but you do wonder sometimes how familiar they are with the other 700-plus major leaguers.

One of Casey Stengel’s best remembered quotes is, “I couldn’t have done it without my players,” and that’s nice as far as it goes. But a manager doesn’t just sit back and leave things to the players; a big part of a manager’s job is to put his players in the best position to succeed, to help them “do it.”

If you followed the Red Sox-Twins game blow by blow, you might have wondered if that’s what Bobby Valentine achieved in a close game made closer by some odd in-game machinations. Insofar as wins and losses are the only things that count, Valentine’s high-wire act worked on Wednesday, and the Red Sox wheezed their way through a late win as much in spite of as because of their increasingly desperate blur of revolving relievers.

The Twins, plinky and impatient at the plate with the kind of reliability associated with death, taxes and sunsets, tried to kill Sox starter Clay Buchholz off with a death by a thousand cuts. But despite two hits in each of the first four innings, the Twins had managed just a lone run against him. The absence of a knockout blow may have owed something to Josh Willingham’s paternity leave to greet his son Rogan’s birth. That many opportunities should lead to runs, especially if the Twins are supposed to fulfill that meme about how Ron Gardenhire gets them to do the little things like advancing runners, and making do with less as the little engine that could, or at least tries. But they got to work with lots, and until the sixth they’d done very little with it.

After 88 pitches through the first five innings, though, Buchholz had to work fairly hard. It doesn’t help when so many of those throws were from the stretch with men on base, but he was clearly gassed, and the sixth inning got ugly fast.

It was only then that Valentine pulled the trigger, perhaps as late as he dared go to his bullpen. Red Sox relievers have a 7.14 Fair Run Average, or FRA. That’s the worst in baseball by a good run and a half, and it’s early enough yet that you can plead “small sample” to your heart’s content. A Baseball Prospectus metric, FRA differs from Fielding Independent Pitching in that it credits pitchers who work out of jams more often than usual and considers defense, base-out situations and batted ball types. All of which is a fancy way of saying that if there’s a fire, the Red Sox have had the wrong kind of gas to try to put it out. If it stuck the whole season, it would be the worst bullpen FRA in more than 30 years, and second only to the 1990 Expos for all-time awful.

But with the bases loaded and another run in and up by five, Valentine went to his pen ... to bring in Scott Atchison, a right-hander. To face the very left-handed Joe Mauer. With the equally very left-handed Justin Morneau on deck.

That’s two lefties who aren’t coming out against any situational machination, and the situation is a perfect illustration of why most contemporary managers obsess about alternating batters by handedness. Riding the hot hand, Gardenhire has been thoroughly conventional of late, with Willingham between the M&M boys. With no Willingham on this night, Gardy went back to putting his two best power sources three-four in the order.

On his career, Mauer has a 126-point advantage in slugging hitting against righties; Morneau’s is “just” 91 points. You don’t manage on what a man’s done in April, you look at the big picture. On his career, Atchison isn’t much for cranking out ground-ball outs, so this wasn’t even really about trying to get a literal twin killing.

Stranger still, Atchison had thrown two innings on Tuesday. Perhaps ideally, he doesn’t even pitch on Wednesday. Ideally, he doesn’t get brought in just to face Joe Mauer. It isn’t even like Atchison’s a bass-ackwards righty with a track record of beating down lefties -- his career OPS split is almost 100 points worse versus lefties.

This might be the antithesis of situational management, and it might have been brave or inspired if it wasn’t simply nutty. Fed a situation with two lefties due and the bases juiced and a five-run lead, Valentine did the opposite of convention, and it burned him. Mauer plated two runners, and only then did Valentine go to the lefty ... and Justin Thomas didn’t make matters any better, giving up a double to Morneau, beaning Chris Parmelee and getting hooked. And just like that, the Sox are on their fourth reliever in five batters. Bill James had a saying about relievers, that if you use enough of them in a game, eventually you run into the one who doesn’t have it that night, but the way the Red Sox's 'pen is working out, they’re finding more than one.

Now, big picture, if you won’t use Thomas with a five-run lead against a lefty, I’m not sure what Justin Thomas is for, but that’s a matter of elective decision making. But if you use Atchison in a less than ideal situation and he fails, is that really his fault? A manager’s supposed to put his players in their best position to succeed, and this clearly wasn’t in anybody’s ideal-situation operating manual.

Maybe Valentine will find his own comfort zone with his bullpen moves. Maybe he’s still figuring out what everyone’s for. To be fair, this isn’t the bullpen he envisioned a month ago, and there’s talent here. As exciting as he was against the Twins, loading the bases, Alfredo Aceves can close as well or better than most. But until Valentine figures out how to put his relievers in the best positions to succeed, this is a problem that won’t get better as quickly as Red Sox fans might like.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

On Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast I’m joined by Keith Law, and starting pitching is clearly on our minds from Monday night.

1. Tim Lincecum is not off to a very good start, but is there truly cause for concern? And what does Lincecum’s future have to do with Madison Bumgarner’s new contract?

2. Justin Verlander tossed a whole lotta pitches to win Monday’s game, but at least he earned his first win! Keith talks pitch counts and what they mean.

3. An emailer asks about pitch counts for younger fellows like Stephen Strasburg, and whether they are necessary. Also, why were the stands so empty for Strasburg’s Monday outing?

4. Speaking of the fans, which teams have the best ones? Our answer might surprise you.

5. We take a closer look at Tuesday’s schedule, including the real reason why people should be watching the Miami Marlins, plus the old guy in Coors Field and why is Tyson Ross a starter?

So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast. There was bias, but no bias cat. Meow.

Monday’s Baseball Today podcast was taped with the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays playing a morning game in the background, but the big story in Beantown wasn’t the game, as Mark Simon and I discussed.

1. What was Bobby Valentine thinking calling out Kevin Youkilis? You know, I still can’t figure it out, but it doesn’t bode well for the future. Plus, we analyze the Jacoby Ellsbury injury and Cody Ross filling in. Can the Red Sox overcome?

2. It’s Power Rankings day! Are the Red Sox in the top 10? Are the Phillies? And where will Mark jump the streaking Los Angeles Dodgers?

3. How can the San Francisco Giants lose an All-Star closer and still be contenders? We explain, but we believe.

4. Mark gets us going with the first Leaderboard of the Week segment discussing an unlikely power source pacing the league in well-hit average.

5. Our emailers want to talk about the best announcers, Miguel Cabrera and the chalk line, and intentional walks!

So download and listen to Monday’s excellent Baseball Today podcast, and get ready for another fine show on Tuesday!

We closed out a full week of Baseball Today podcasts with Friday’s memorable edition, as Mark Simon and I kind of made things up as we went along, but in a fun and entertaining way!

1. First we talked about poor Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees, and wondered whether he’ll ever be relevant again.

2. What about Kendrys Morales of the Angels? We think he’ll matter soon to any Angels lineup lacking a bit.

3. More about movies and their occasional sports inaccuracy in our email segment!

4. What off-the-wall storyline would we like to see this season, something that has never happened before? And no, we don’t mean the Cubs winning the World Series.

5. And finally our ridiculous question of the day (which Mark again sung -- an appearance on "American Idol" is next for Mark!) deals with older players hitting as many home runs as their age. Fun!

So have a seat, put your feet up and download and listen to Friday’s cool Baseball Today podcast, because let’s face it, I was sitting with my feet up when we recorded it. Have a great weekend and we’ll still be daily next week!

• Sports Illustrated's Joe Sheehan responds to the likelihood that baseball will be adding a second wild-card team. Joe perfectly sums up the problems I also have with the second wild card. In fact, I would argue the problems are so obvious, and the benefits so minor, that baseball will eventually eliminate the second wild card after a few years (or after Bud Selig retires).
• Here's a report from ESPNBoston that says Red Sox players are iffy on the extra wild card. The quotes from the players exactly echo Joe's points.
• Brandon Cloud has an in-depth look at pitching in Coors Field and points to an interesting piece of data I wasn't aware of: fastballs are more affected at Coors than breaking balls. Why? One reason is that all pitches travel faster at Coors; this means gravity has less time to affect the movement of the pitch (Ubaldo Jimenez had much more movement on his two-seam and four-seam fastballs on the road). Movement on breaking balls is affected as well, but not as much, in part because off-speed pitches are moving slower than fastballs. What does it mean as to what kind of pitchers the Rockies should want? Check out Brandon's piece.
• Wally Matthews of ESPNNewYork writes about Bobby Valentine, who apparently has the Bombers on his brain.
• Joey Matschulat has a nice rundown of the Jairo Beras situation with the Rangers. Beras is a Dominican teenager the Rangers just signed for $4.5 million, but there is a dispute over his age and thus his eligibility to be signed before July 2. MLB has launched an investigation.
• Charlie Manuel says the Phillies need to bunt more. Crashburn Alley's Bill Baer has a response.
• This made me chuckle: Somehow, MLB Network rated Brian McCann the seventh-best catcher in baseball. As Ben Duronio suggests, that's pretty low for a catcher who compares favorably to two guys named Gary Carter and Mike Piazza. There's no way to measure this, of course, but if McCann isn't the most underrated player in baseball, he has to be near the top of the list.
• Speaking of catchers, Chip Buck of Fire Brand sends Jason Varitek off into retirement.
• Tony Jackson of ESPNLA has a piece on Chad Billingsley, who is making some adjustments to his mechanics after a disappointing 2011.
• Harper Gordek has his picks to SOAR and CRASH with the Nationals this year. He likes Wilson Ramos but isn't a believer in Edwin Jackson.
• Charles Piece of Grantland has an excellent essay in defense of Ryan Braun. Maybe you disagree with Pierce's stance that Braun was a victim or that baseball ultimately played the role of an authoritarian SOB. But it's hard to deny this paragraph: "Can someone seriously argue that it is ethical to take a drug to make a performance possible, but unethical to take a drug that makes that performance better? Isn't making a performance possible at all the ultimate performance enhancement? If there had been a drug that would have given us five more seasons of Sandy Koufax at the top of his game, how would that have been a bad thing, everything else being equal? Sports are rife with drugs. Without drugs of one sort or another, the NFL season would never begin, and the baseball season would end sometime in June owing to a lack of participating teams."

Some more good stuff from around the SweetSpot network ...

• Ben Duronio examines Craig Kimbrel's breaking ball. Some label the pitch a slider or slurve, but Kimbrel refers to it as a curveball. Here's all that matters: It's a devastating pitch.
• Value Over Replacement Grit has an in-depth look at the "Three True Outcomes" concept (a batter either hitting a home run, drawing a walk or striking out) and applies it to entire teams. Which teams in history have best emulated a TTO attitude?
• Chip Buck of Fire Brand compares the AL East rotations.
• Alex Gordon may be close to signing a one-year deal with the Royals. Craig Brown of Royals Authority has a reaction and breaks down what a potential long-term deal could look like.
• Camden Depot's Jon Shepherd examines what Manny Ramirez could potentially bring if the Orioles sign him.
• Marlins reliever Steve Cishek flew under the radar as a rookie but posted impressive numbers. Jonathan Mitchell at Marlins Daily asks whether Cishek should be considered for a high-leverage role in the Marlins' bullpen.
• At Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman reviews the Johan Santana trade between the Mets and Twins. With that article in mind, Bill Baer looks back the deals that brought the Phillies Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.
• Considering what the Brewers traded to get Zack Greinke -- compared to what the Reds gave up for Mat Latos and the Cubs to acquire Matt Garza -- that deal is looking like a steal for Milwaukee, writes Jack Moore.
• Joey Matschulat opines on Elvis Andrus' three-year extension with the Rangers.
• Chris Quick looks at some of the PECOTA projections for the Giants. (PECOTA is the projection system used by Baseball Prospectus.) What about new outfielder Melky Cabrera? Well ... let's just say the Giants may still struggle to score runs.
• Yes, Cubs fans, you have reasons to be optimistic!
• For my fellow Mariners fans, Brendan Gawlowski has a good look at the Mariners' non-roster invites.

And a few more links from elsewhere ...

• John Sickels of Minor League Ball with a fun look at the top 30 position players in baseball and how they were viewed as prospects. Here does the same thing for the top 25 pitchers.
• ESPNBoston kicks off its "10 Question in 10 Days" series heading into spring training with Gordon Edes' look at Bobby Valentine.
• ESPNNewYork has a similar series with the Yankees and Andrew Marchand writes that Johnny Damon is the right fit for the Yankees' DH slot.
• Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas is going position-by-position with the Rangers and looks at Yu Darvish.
• Mark Saxon says that Vernon Wells -- and not Mike Trout -- will be the Angels' left fielder.
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs lists his top 10 moves of the offseason ... and his 10 worst.
• Mentioned briefly above, Baseball Prospectus has reintroduced PECOTA, its player projection system. Colin Wyers has the details here.
• George Brett's company is being sued. Wait ... you mean those necklaces don't actually improve athletic performance?

With the Rangers giving Ron Washington a two-year extension and the Rays reportedly close to extending Joe Maddon for three years, it's time to take a look at those managers who don't have the same kind of job security.

Jim Tracy, Rockies: Tracy took over for Clint Hurdle in 2009 after the team started 18-28 and the Rockies went 74-42 to win the wild card. But since then they've fallen from 92 wins to 83 wins to 73 wins. The additions of veterans Michael Cuddyer, Marco Scutaro, Ramon Hernandez and Casey Blake indicates the Rockies are in "win-now" mode despite a shaky rotation. Throw in the fact that Tracy isn't exactly regarded as a tactical genius and that GM Dan O'Dowd fired Hurdle less than two years after guiding the team to a World Series appearance, and Tracy might be on a short leash.

Dusty Baker, Reds: Baker has managed the Reds four seasons now and has one division title ... and three losing seasons. The departure of Albert Pujols from St. Louis and the additions of Mat Latos, Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall to the Cincinnati pitching staff means another division title will be expected. Young guys like Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs haven't developed as predicted. With Terry Francona sitting out there, the pressure is on Baker and the Reds to get off to a good start.

Ron Gardenhire, Twins: The Twins are arguably the most conservative organization in baseball. Gardenhire has been there since 2002 and won six division titles, and Tom Kelly managed for 15 seasons before him. But a disastrous 2011 and little hope for much improvement in 2012 puts Gardenhire in the crossfire for the first time. Plus, considering the Twins are 2-15 in their past five playoff appearances, it's not like he's had success in the postseason. It might do the organization good to make some philosophical changes; it survived for years on a rotation of mostly finesse-type guys who throw strikes, but the AL Central is getting stronger, and that approach might not be enough moving forward.

Don Mattingly, Dodgers: Once the new ownership group takes over during the season, Mattingly immediately becomes a candidate to get canned, especially if the Dodgers have a losing record. I can see the new owner wanting to bring in somebody with Dodgers ties or making a splash with a bigger personality.

Bobby Valentine, Red Sox: Hey, it's a long shot, but isn't there a small chance this turns into a disaster, with the Red Sox struggling out of the gate, the media getting on Valentine, Bobby V saying something ridiculous, Josh Beckett getting caught eating fried chicken in the fifth inning of a blowout defeat ...?

When fans think of Bobby Valentine, most will initially think of the time he tried to sneak back into the dugout wearing glasses and a fake mustache after getting ejected from a game. There will be plenty of talk about the perception that he's arrogant, a little aloof and craves the limelight too much. There will be talk that he hasn't managed in the major leagues since 2002 (although he did in Japan after that) and that his departure from the Mets was fueled in part by his disagreements with general manager Steve Phillips.

So the talk will mostly be about his personality. But what kind of manager was he? Let's look back at his career -- focusing mostly on his full seasons with the Mets from 1997 to 2002 -- to see what that may indicate about how he'll manage the Red Sox.

Will Carl Crawford hit leadoff?

With Jacoby Ellsbury's new power stroke, it may make sense to move him down in the order to get him more RBI opportunities; that would leave Crawford as a leadoff option. I don't see that. Even if Crawford bounces back, his on-base percentage is hardly ideal for a leadoff hitter and Valentine -- a guy who was using computers and studying sabermetrics back with the Rangers in the '80s -- craves a high OBP from his leadoff hitter.

Check out his leadoff hitters with the Mets:

1997: Lance Johnson/Brian McRae.
1998: Brian McRae/Tony Phillips -- McRae posted a career-high .360 OBP that year.
1999: Rickey Henderson.
2000: Ten different leadoff hitters, including Benny Agbayani 27 games.
2001: Used four guys at least 20 games, led by Joe McEwing's 44 games. Led off Agbayani 32 times.
2002: Roberto Alomar/Roger Cedeno.

The unconventional use of Agbayani, the rotund Hawaiian without much speed but in possession of good on-base skills, shows Valentine's preference for OBP. In 2002, with Cedeno failing to do the job, he used Alomar there. I see Crawford remaining lower in the order, with Ellsbury staying in the No. 1 spot.

Does he like the quick hook or does he let his starters stay in the game?

There's not really a lot of in-game strategy in the American League, especially with a team like the Red Sox that basically just looks to bash the ball. So the most important strategic elements for Valentine will be how he handles the rotation and bullpen. The 2011 Red Sox were 12th in the AL in average innings per start, but that was more a function of a lousy rotation than Terry Francona's itchy trigger finger.

Let's see where the Mets under Valentine ranked in average in innings per start among NL teams:

1997: 5th
1998: 4th
1999: 8th
2000: 4th
2001: 4th
2002: 5th

Nothing really unusual here, as the Mets usually had a solid rotation under Valentine. They ranked in the upper half of innings because he had decent pitchers.

He was a little more generous when it came to allowing his starters throw 100 to 119 pitches:

1997: 9th
1998: 7th
1999: 12th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 4th

What's interesting about the 2001 squad is that they actually allowed the fewest walks in the league, so the high pitch counts weren't the result of a staff that walked a lot of hitters. He had a veteran rotation that year -- Leiter, Kevin Appier, Glendon Rusch, Steve Trachsel, Rick Reed -- and let his starters work deeper into games. It will be interesting to see if Valentine allows Jon Lester and Josh Beckett to reach the century mark more often than Francona did. In 2011, Lester had 22 100-pitch games -- tied for 25th-most among major league starters; Beckett had 21. Justin Verlander had 34, CC Sabathia 31, and other top AL pitchers like James Shields, David Price, Felix Hernandez, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren and Jered Weaver were all in the high 20s or low 30s.

Does he like an experienced closer?

In other words, would he be comfortable with Daniel Bard in the ninth inning? With the Mets, he initially had John Franco. The team acquired Armando Benitez in 1999 and when Franco went down with an injury in early July, Benitez took over as closer; when Franco returned, Benitez kept the closer job. As the Rangers' manager from 1985 to 1992, he had a different closer every year early on, before the club turned starter Jeff Russell into a successful closer in 1989. Hard to read too much into this, although both Russell and Bard throw hard. My guess is this becomes more of a front-office decision (do they sign Ryan Madson?), but that Valentine would have no problem making Bard his closer.

Does he like strikeout pitchers or guys who throw strikes?

With the Rangers, Valentine (and pitching coach Tom House) were obsessed with guys who threw hard. They had Bobby Witt, Jose Guzman, Edwin Correa, Nolan Ryan, Mitch Williams and others. Ryan had mostly refined his control (for him) by the time he reached Texas, but the other four would have problems hitting a barn door placed 10 feet in front of them. His first four staffs all had the highest walk rate in the American League. His staffs with the Mets were better, and Valentine seemed less concerned with velocity -- guys like Reed, Bobby Jones and Rusch were more finesse-type pitchers who threw strikes.

Mets strikeout rate under Valentine:

1997: 13th
1998: 7th
1999: 4th
2000: 3rd
2001: 5th
2002: 5th

Mets walk rate under Valentine:

1997: 2nd
1998: 7th
1999: 8th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 5th


Does he like a set lineup?

During his years with the Mets, Valentine always had a set infield, but remarkably never had one outfielder start 100 games at one position more than once. His machinations out there were pretty remarkable and show the willingness to be flexible and mix and match players as needed. Now, with the Red Sox he won't have same issue, with Ellsbury and Crawford playing every day, but it certainly suggests he'd be comfortable with a platoon in right field.

Here's the list of outfielders who started 100 games in a season at the same position with the Mets under Valentine:

1997: Bernard Gilkey, LF, 134
1998: Brian McRae, CF, 144
1999: Rickey Henderson, LF, 113
2000: Jay Payton, CF, 124; Derek Bell, RF, 136
2001: None
2002: Roger Cedeno, LF, 125; Jeromy Burnitz, RF, 131

The big issue here is how he handles Crawford, especially if he struggles to hit left-handers again (.195 in 2011). Would he consider benching Crawford against lefties, or at least the tough lefties?


Does he like young players?

With the Mets, he mostly had a veteran lineup. He did give Agbayani an opportunity, broke in Payton and Timo Perez, and gave Cedeno his first chance to play every day. With the Rangers, he broke in position players like Ruben Sierra, Oddibe McDowell, Steve Buechele, Pete Incaviglia, Jerry Browne, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez and Dean Palmer. Again, this might be more of a front-office decision, but I'd say Valentine would give youngsters like Josh Reddick and Ryan Lavarnway an opportunity to play regularly.

Valentine's reputation with the Mets was one of being prepared and being tactically smart with his in-game moves. He had to do more with the Mets than he'll have to with the Red Sox, especially considering he was often platooning at one or two outfield spots. He trusted his veteran starters to go deep into games. In short, there's nothing radically unconventional about Valentine's managerial philosophy. Of course, he last managed in the majors 10 years ago and his biggest challenge won't necessarily be strategy, but getting Crawford to rebound, getting his older players in better shape, and rebuilding Bard's confidence.

If a team drafts one future star, that's a pretty good draft.

If a team drafts three solid future contributors, that's a pretty good draft.

But no team has ever come close to the draft haul the Dodgers pulled off in 1968.

Back then, the draft was conducted in four different phases -- two in January and two in June. The January phases were for high schools kids who had graduated, community college players or players who had reached the age 21. The regular January phase was for players who hadn't been drafted before, the secondary phase for those who had previously been drafted. The regular June phase was for all high school and college players who hadn't been drafted previously; the secondary phase was for all previously drafted players. (Basically, baseball was worried about the legality of the draft, so figured if players could be drafted every six months, that gave them more signing leverage.)

Anyway, here's who the Dodgers hauled in:

Davey Lopes, OF, Washburn University: Drafted in the second round of the January secondary phase, Lopes was already nearly 23 and didn't play his first full season until he was 28. The Dodgers converted him to second base and he played over 1,800 major league games, becoming a four-time All-Star and one of the game's best-ever basestealers (he stole 47 bases in 51 attempts at the age of 40).

Geoff Zahn, LHP, Michigan: A fifth-round January selection, Zahn would win 111 games in the majors, although only four for the Dodgers. After posting a 2.03 ERA in 79 innings as a rookie in 1974, the Dodgers traded him to the Cubs for Burt Hooten, who would win 112 games with the Dodgers. The Cubs, meanwhile, would release Zahn after he won just two games with them. (He had later success with the Twins and Angels.)

Bobby Valentine, OF, Rippowam HS, Stamford, Conn.: The team's first-round pick in the June regular phase, Valentine would become one of the top prospects of the draft era before knee and ankle injuries ruined his career.

Bill Buckner, 1B, Napa HS, Vallejo, Calif.: A second-round pick, Buckner played his first big league game while still just 19. He'd play 22 seasons and finish with 2,715 hits. With the Dodgers, he had good speed before knee injuries slowed him down and forced a move from outfield to first base. He was later traded to the Cubs for Rick Monday.

Tom Paciorek, OF, Houston: Despite consistently great numbers in the minors, Paciorek never got much of a chance with the Dodgers. He went to Atlanta, then Seattle, then the White Sox, lasting until he was 40, hitting .300 four times and finished with over 1,000 hits.

Joe Ferguson, OF, Pacific: Ferguson, an eighth-round pick, would play over 1,000 games in the majors, mostly at catcher. He had two big seasons with the Dodgers in '73 and '74, splitting time in right field and behind the plate.

Doyle Alexander, RHP, Woodlawn HS, Birmingham, Ala.: Drafted a round after Ferguson, Alexander reached the majors in 1971 and posted a 3.80 ERA in 92 innings as a rookie. The Dodgers dealt him to the Orioles after the season in a deal that netted Frank Robinson. Alexander would win 192 games in the majors and, of course, later be dealt from the Braves to the Tigers for a minor leaguer named John Smoltz.

Steve Garvey, 3B, Michigan State: The team's first-round pick in the June secondary phase (he'd been drafted out of high school by the Twins), Garvey would become the 1974 NL MVP and 10-time All-Star, finishing with 2,599 hits (1,968 with the Dodgers).

Ron Cey, 3B, Washington State: A six-time All-Star and one of the most underrated players of the '70s, Cey hit 312 career home runs and drove in 1,139 runs.

In all, the Dodgers drafted 15 players who made the majors. While none of them become Hall of Famers, it's the greatest draft haul in history, and Garvey, Cey and Lopes formed three-quarters of the infield (along with Bill Russell) that helped the Dodgers reach four World Series between 1974 and 1981.

Four years seems like a long time to me. The latest on the Marlins' next manager (maybe):

A source close to the negotiations said that the Marlins are expected to offer Valentine a four-year contract.

Valentine, now an analyst with ESPN, withdrew his name from consideration for the Orioles' managerial job Wednesday soon after it was announced that the Marlins had fired manager Fredi Gonzalez. Valentine has known Loria for 20 years, and has had informal discussions with Loria over the last eight months about Valentine's interest in someday managing the Marlins.

Edwin Rodriguez, the Marlins' Triple-A manager, was named the interim manager. Rodriguez is Puerto Rican and the Marlins play the Mets in a three-game series in Puerto Rico starting Monday. A source close to the negotiations said it seems logical the Marlins will have Rodriguez manage the Marlins for the three games in Puerto Rico, then name Valentine the manager.

Does Valentine represent a quick fix, à la Billy Martin?

In 1985, he took over a 9-23 Rangers squad and went 53-76 the rest of the way; the next year, Texas won 87 games.

In 1996, he took over a 59-72 Mets squad and went 12-19 the rest of the way; the next year, New York won 88 games.

Those two experiences are so stunningly similar that we have to guard against reading too much into them. Obviously, two partial seasons really don't tell us much of anything. And the Marlins are six-and-a-half games out of first place anyway. While they might be more talented than their record suggests, it probably won't matter given their position in the standings.

I'll say this, though: Unlike Fredi Gonzalez and Joe Girardi before him, Valentine has a history of winning games. Not a lot of games -- his career winning percentage in the majors is .510, with zero division titles -- but he's managed many hundreds of games and he's won most of them (his record in Japan, though less extensive, is more impressive).

Overall, Valentine's performance as a manager has been strong but less than brilliant, and a manager with a less flamboyant personality probably would have been set to pasture by now. But the Marlins have a talented roster right now and will open their new ballpark in 2012, and Valentine could hardly find a better situation for his comeback.