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We closed another week of excellent Baseball Today podcasts with Friday’s edition , as Mark Simon and I reflected on positives in the baseball world, and looked ahead to a fun interleague weekend!

1. Kerry Wood decides to call an end to his career, and we point to his career achievements rather than focus on the negative, including his amazing strikeout legacy.

2. Atlanta Braves ace Brandon Beachy keeps on winning, and keeps on doing it in a far different way than we’ve seen from him before.

3. Interleague play is here! Time for my annual rant on why it’s not only about the teams from Chicago, New York and Los Angeles meeting, but for that 10-year-old kid in Kansas City finally getting to see Justin Upton hit.

4. Our emailers want to discuss Emmanuel Burriss, the Pittsburgh Alleghenys and really, so much more, and we want what our emailers want!

5. Our weekend preview focuses on numerous series in which teams with similar records face off, from Pirates-Tigers to the battle of the Beltway and more. Plus, what to expect from Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton!

So download and listen to Friday’s fun Baseball Today, and have a great weekend! Power Rankings on Monday!

Baseball lore is full of great scouting stories, like the tale of the scout who was driving through rural Maryland one day and stopped to ask a kid working in a field for directions. The kid -- future Hall of Fame Jimmie Foxx -- raised his plow with one arm and pointed: "That way."

The scout, seeing the kid's raw strength, asked him the obvious question: "Do you play baseball?"

Who knows, maybe Brandon Beachy will become one of those stories.

Beachy played mostly third base and first base at Indiana Wesleyan and pitched a little, but went undrafted. A Braves area scout named Gene Kerns saw Beachy one July evening pitching in relief in the Virginia Valley League, a college summer league. He saw a kid with good size throwing in the low 90s.

After the game, he asked Beachy if he'd been drafted. (He wouldn't be allowed to talk to him if he had.) When Beachy said no, Kerns, as he relayed in a 2011 interview, then asked the obvious question: "Do you have an interest in professional baseball?"

Kerns convinced the club to sign him as a non-drafted free agent. Barely two years later, Beachy was in the major leagues. Now, after a sterling rookie season, Beachy is 5-1 after throwing his first major league complete game and shutout in a 7-0 victory over the Marlins. Beachy threw 122 pitches, struck out six, walked nobody, allowed four singles and one double and showcased why he leads the major leagues with a 1.33 ERA.

In less than four years he has gone from an undrafted college infielder to minor league reliever to maybe-he's-a-prospect to major league starter to ... well, what do we call him now? The most underrated pitcher in baseball? A possible All-Star? I'm not sure. For now, let's just call him very good.

Beachy isn't overpowering, usually settling in around 90-91 mph with his four-seamer, occasionally cranking it up to 94. He gets some running sink/cut on his fastball, although it's not a cutter. He tweeted earlier this season that "No, I don't throw a cutter. Just 4-seams and an occasional 2." He mixes in a changeup, a slow curve (72-74 mph) that he commands well and a slider. Yes, he relies to some extend on a deceptive delivery that makes it difficult for batters to pick up the ball, but he's excelling on more than deception; his stuff is better than advertised.

He was in control all game against the Marlins. They did get two runners on with two out in the fifth, but Jose Reyes lined out to right. In the seventh, Giancarlo Stanton doubled to lead off the inning and Chipper Jones made a nice diving stop on Gaby Sanchez for the first out. Beachy induced Emilio Bonifacio to ground out to second on a 94-mph four-seamer and then struck out Brett Hayes on a lovely changeup.

From there it was six up, six down and the shutout.

Last season, Baseball America ranked Beachy as Atlanta's No. 8 prospect, behind more heralded arms Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Arodys Vizcaino. But Beachy beat out Minor -- a former No. 1 pick -- for the No. 5 rotation slot out of spring training and never looked back. He made 25 starts and finished 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA, striking out 169 batters in 141.2 innings, the highest strikeout in the majors for pitchers with at least 100 innings.

His biggest issue as a rookie was an inability to pitch deep into games. The strikeouts were nice, but also meant he ran up his pitch counts, leading to early exits. He pitched seven innings just twice. Thursday was the fourth time in eight starts that he's gone at least seven. While his strikeout rate is down -- 6.5 Ks per nine -- he has been even more effective. His ground ball rate is up from 33.8 percent to 43.1 percent, he has allowed just one home run in 54 innings and his walks are down. There may be a little luck going on here --- the home run rate is absurdly low for a fly-ball pitcher and his .214 BABIP will surely rise -- but at this point you have to call him one of the best pitchers in the majors.

I asked Braves fans if they've been surprised by Beachy's sophomore campaign. A few responses:

• "That dominant game from Beachy tonight is just a continuation of the good work he's been doing this year. Kid's got the goods." -- @jackson_todd
• "Beachy has earned everything through hard work and dedication. I was surprised when he came up but not this year." -- @PaulGrey27
• "Not surprised that he's been the Braves best pitcher. Very surprised that he's been THIS good." -- @JUnderwood9
• "biggest surprise is continued ability to get swinging strikes on the fastball up, even when sitting 91-93. Huge asset." --@puckhoo
• "so no, not too surprised. if he can stay efficient and get his K rate back up a little bit he will become a legit ace" --@telfo1
• "Beachy reminds me so much of John Smoltz. His mechanics are simple which enables him to repeat pitches without stress." --@M823SL

Somewhere Gene Kerns was probably watching a baseball game tonight. I hope he got a chance to check out a few innings of Brandon Beachy. And if he wants to somehow involve a plow in future retellings of how he discovered Beachy, I think that sounds perfectly fine.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

It's easy to discount the Baltimore Orioles and their 14-8 start. Even Orioles fans will agree with that, I suppose -- 14 consecutive losing seasons, six consecutive seasons of 90-plus losses, a decade of bad pitching, bad fielding, bad free agents and bad ownership. It's the Orioles. It's been a long time since they mattered.

But we have to pay attention after this start. At least for a few weeks, right? They are 14-8, they are tied for first with the Tampa Bay Rays in baseball's brawniest division, they've won six of seven and they've won games in a peculiar, un-Orioles-like fashion -- great pitching and dramatic comebacks. The Orioles allowed just 13 runs over this seven-game stretch. Sunday's win was the kind you put on a season highlight DVD as they scored five runs in the bottom of the ninth -- capped by Wilson Betemit's walk-off three-run homer against Oakland's Grant Balfour.

"We got a team where everybody pulls together," Betemit said after the game. "Everybody knows how to play, knows how to win, and that's what we do."

Now, maybe Betemit just got caught up in the happy celebration. He probably doesn't realize how that quote sounds so odd to Orioles fans. Then again, he's new to Baltimore and isn't trapped by that cloud of losing seasons. But it's also true that Baltimore is winning these kinds of games -- according to Nick Faleris of the Camden Depot blog, that's five comeback wins in the seventh inning or later for the Orioles, matching their 2011 total.

Nolan Reimold (.333), Adam Jones (.330), Robert Andino (.324) and Chris Davis (.319) are all hitting above .300. Matt Wieters has six homer runs and a team-leading 15 RBIs. The Orioles are sixth in the AL in runs even though J.J. Hardy is hitting .181 and Mark Reynolds is hitting .150 without a home run.

Now, this is where I rain on the Orioles' parade a little bit. Those four guys hitting over .300? They've combined for just 13 walks but 60 strikeouts. Can they keep up that production? The low walk rate means the Orioles are just 10th in the AL in on-base percentage, so they have been relying on the home run (29 in 22 games).

But it's been the rotation that has provided the biggest lift. After ranking last in the AL in 2011 with a 5.39 ERA, the rotation has posted a 3.65 ERA so far, led by newcomer Jason Hammel's 1.73 mark. But Wei-Yin Chen has been a nice surprise as well, with a 2.22 ERA. The 26-year-old Taiwanese left-hander came over from Japan and has a four-pitch repertoire that isn't overpowering but he's fanned 19 batters in 24.2 innings, a good enough rate to survive.

Now ... this is where I again in some rain. While Jake Arrieta has looked good, left-hander Brian Matusz has again struggled, although his last start was his best. The Orioles are still looking for the promising lefty of 2010, but he's at least throwing 90 mph again. Tommy Hunter is a finesse right-hander who has survived despite allowing eight home runs so far. But what happens when he starts going through those AL East lineups start after start?

Speaking of which. The Orioles play the Yankees and Red Sox this week. They already went 0-3 earlier in the season against New York and this time have to play the Yankees on the road. This will be a good test to see what kind of team the Orioles really have. Not to disagree with Mr. Betemit, but I have doubts whether this is a team that knows how to win. Last year, the O's went 13-23 against New York and Boston; in 2010, they went 14-22; in 2009, 7-29. The last time they won a season series against either team was 2004, when they went 10-9 against Boston.

Series of the week: Orioles at Yankees, Monday through Wednesday
Jason Hammel (3-0, 1.73) vs. Hiroki Kuroda (1-3, 4.38), 7:05 ET
Brian Matusz (0-3, 5.66) vs. Phil Hughes (1-3, 7.88), 7:05 ET
Jake Arrieta (1-2, 4.45) vs. Ivan Nova (3-0, 5.18), 7:05 ET (ESPN)

Hammel has thrived by throwing lots of grounders -- he's fourth among all starting pitchers in groundball rate so far, at 61.8 percent. The O's hope to take advantage of a struggling Hughes on Tuesday. He's lasted just 16 innings over four starts, giving up five home runs and a .329 average. Nova is 3-0 -- he hasn't lost a start since last June 3. But he's allowed a .343 average, though his walk rate is down and strikeout rate way up from 2011.

Three pitching matchups to watch
1. Cole Hamels (3-1, 2.73) vs. Brandon Beachy, Phillies at Braves (Tuesday, 7:10 ET)

The Braves have quietly gone 14-8 with a +27 run differential, third-highest in baseball behind the Rangers and Cardinals. Filthy Hamels (30 strikeouts, three walks) will be a fun test for the NL's leading offense (tied with the Cardinals at 5.1 runs per game). Beachy has a 1.05 ERA, although that figure has been helped by four unearned runs. Still, Beachy has allowed a .191 average through four starts and has improved his groundball rate from 33.8 percent in 2011 to 47.3, leading to just one home run allowed.

2. Jake Peavy (3-1, 1.67) vs. Drew Smyly (1-0, 1.23)

Peavy looks rejuvenated, the Peavy of a Cy Young past. He's thrown two straight complete games, has held hitters to a .162 average, has allowed one home run and has a 33/5 strikeout/walk ratio. Impressively, four of his starts have come against the Red Sox, Tigers, Orioles and Rangers, four of the AL's best offenses so far. In short, he's been dominant, maybe the best pitcher in baseball in April if you factor in the competition. Detroit's rookie left-hander has been impressive in his four starts -- allowing one run each time out (three of those on home runs). Smyly throws in the 90-93 range with his four-seamer, mixing in a slider and cut fastball and occasional changeup. He allowed two hits in six innings against the Yankees in his previous start.

3. Zack Greinke (3-1, 3.94) vs. Madison Bumgarner (4-1, 2.53), Brewers at Giants (Saturday, 4:05 ET)

Greinke had one blow-up start in which he allowed eight runs, but has otherwise allowed a total of five runs in his four other starts, two of which were wins over the Cardinals. I'd like to see Greinke get a little more economical with his pitches and prove he can pitch more than seven innings. Greinke pitched at least eight innings 10 times with the Royals in 2010, but has to do it with the Brewers. Bumgarner has reeled off four straight wins and has yet to walk more than two batters in a game.

Heat map of the week
Courtesy of Mark Simon we have a little comparison between Albert Pujols and red-hot Matt Kemp. One big difference has been their success with two strikes. Pujols has faced 50 two-strike plate appearances and has totaled 11 hits plus walks (and no home runs, of course). Kemp has faced 45 two-strike plate appearances but has 18 hits plus walks, including four home runs. Another big difference, as you can see on the heat map below on their overall production in different zones: Kemp is 8-for-12 (with five home runs) on pitches down the middle while Pujols is hitless in that area. Maybe that's reason for Angels fans to be optimistic: He's due to start pounding those mistakes.

Player on the hot seat: Mat Latos, Reds
The Reds gave up a lot to get Latos from the Padres in the offseason, a guy acquired to fit behind Johnny Cueto in the rotation, but in reality expected to be Cincy's best pitcher. He's been a huge disappointment, with one win in five starts. He had one seven-inning scoreless stint against the Giants, but has otherwise failed to fool many batters. Opponents are hitting .304 off him and he's fanned just 18 batters in 28.2 innings, after averaging 8.9 K's per nine the past two seasons. His velocity has been fine; hitters are just putting more balls in play. After hitters to swing and miss his slider 23 percent of the time last year, they're doing so 17 percent this season. He's also allowed a much higher line-drive percentage and his slider and sinker.

(Oh, yes, this doesn't mean Pujols isn't still on the hot seat.)

Player to watch: Bryce Harper
No introduction needed. He's up, he went 2-for-6 with a double, walk and sac fly in his two games and I'll be watching as many of his at-bats as possible this week. You can check him out on "Sunday Night Baseball" against the Phillies.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

With the way 2011 ended for the Atlanta Braves, many hoped a good start in spring training would put any thoughts about last season behind them. At the start of camp, however, Tommy Hanson crashed his car and received a concussion. That was certainly not a good omen, to say the least.

Then Tyler Pastornicky, the expected starting shortstop, started 3-for-33, sparking questions about whether he or last season’s Lynchburg Hillcat (Atlanta's high-A affiliate) shortstop Andrelton Simmons should start at shortstop. A week ago, Chipper Jones stated in jest that he was unsure if he could even finish the season, and then Thursday announced that he'll retire at the end of the season. Additionally, the team is 6-13 in the Grapefruit League, ahead of only the Mets. Spring training records do not mean much, if anything, but the Braves have most certainly not played quality baseball.

On Tuesday, the worst news of the spring hit the Braves as Arodys Vizcaino, the 14th-ranked prospect in baseball according to Keith Law, will miss the entire season with Tommy John surgery. Vizcaino was projected to pitch in the Braves’ bullpen and was expected to help ease the workload of the team’s back-end relievers.

Not much has gone right, but there are still reasons to be optimistic. With Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy ready to break out and Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado not far behind them, the Braves still have a strong core of young starting pitchers who are major league ready. With Tim Hudson already being ruled out until the start of May and Hanson and Jair Jurrjens attempting to rebound from last year’s season-ending injuries, the depth in the rotation is the team’s biggest strength and should come in handy over the course of the season.

Although Vizcaino will miss the year, swingman Kris Medlen should bolster what was already one of the game’s top bullpens. His ability to eat innings, along with fellow bullpen mate Cristhian Martinez, should lessen the workload on Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty. The bullpen should again be stellar.

While the pitching should remain sturdy, the big questions in Braves camp revolve around the bats. Jason Heyward and Martin Prado had sub-standard years and will look to rebound, while Brian McCann and Dan Uggla try to stay consistent throughout the season. Heyward has altered both his swing and stance, and he has really started to swing the bat well over the past two weeks. Prado and Uggla have both looked tremendous all spring.

The basic assumption the front office has made, judging by their lack of acquisitions, is that they doubt things go as bad for the offense in 2012 as they did last year. Having Michael Bourn in center field for the entire season should stabilize the top of the lineup and result in improved production compared to what the Braves received from Nate McLouth, Jordan Schafer and Bourn during his few months with the team.

With all that went bad toward the end of last year, this team still won 89 games and would have made the playoffs if this season’s playoff format had been in place. They have a ton of pitching depth and have one of the best bullpens in the league. While they do not have a tremendous offense and will likely struggle with their infield defense, they do have the tools to score runs and prevent runs at a better than average rate. As bad as this spring has been, the Braves are still one of the better teams in the National League and should certainly be in competition for a playoff spot, which is all you can really ask for in a crowded NL East.

Ben Duronio writes regularly about the Braves at Capitol Avenue Club. You can follow him on Twitter @Ben_Duronio.

I asked readers on Twitter to name their top choice for breakout player for this season.

The question is fairly vague, although I did say not to include rookies like Yu Darvish, Matt Moore and Mike Trout, players who have received plenty of hype and will have high expectations.

Out of 100 responses, I got 63 different names listed, although that included my friend Thomas jokingly picking Don Kelly. Who knows, maybe Kelly will push Miguel Cabrera to full-time designated hitter. Anyway, here are the players who received more than two votes:

Justin Smoak, Mariners: 7
Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: 6
Brandon Beachy, Braves: 3
Mike Minor, Braves: 3
Dexter Fowler, Rockies: 3
Travis Snider, Blue Jays: 3
Lucas Duda, Mets: 3
Brandon Belt, Giants: 3
Dustin Ackley, Mariners: 3

This is what makes baseball so exciting and unpredictable. Some of the 63 guys mentioned will break out. All 63 certainly have a chance to break out, even in the vague definition of the term. And while Lawrie is an obvious candidate after his monster performance late last season, we don't know if Smoak or Belt or Fowler will become a big star. Maybe one will; maybe all three will. It's why we watch. My own pick: Homer Bailey. Long-heralded, he finally started putting it together last season. Cincinnati's a tough place to pitch so I'm not expecting a 3.18 ERA or anything, but I think he can get that ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range and become a solid No. 3 starter behind Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto.

Some comments from Twitter:

Dexter Fowler. I think this is DexFo's year to break out and become the third part of the Tulo, Cargo, Dexfo triumverante. -- @sskapyak

@LoMoMarlins Goes off .300/.405/.515 with a bump in power numbers. -- @faust74

Brett Lawrie is gonna have a memorable season. -- @GTAdross

Matt Wieters. Continues to cut his strikeouts down, .840 OPS in the second half of 2011. -- @GreenLineOutfit

I like jordan zimmermann to really break out this year. Keeps the ball in the park and limits his BBs #checkoutmynewWHIP -- @TheMuzz34

Cameron Maybin. Finally puts up a .290-20-90-50 campaign like the Tigers and Marlins expected. --@djameson87

Kris Medlen? Very good when healthy, and is finally healthy. Will play a huge roll for Braves this year. --@Max_Jensen10

Mike Stanton. He will lead the Majors with 45 HRs. --@JoeBoria

Alex Gordon, will have an MVP type season and finally live up to his potential --@Sean_Bealer

Justin Smoak. Or is that just wishful thinking?? --@CRoscoe2121

It’s days like this that can get you upset with the sheer injustice of it all. Six months, 162 games, and it all might come down to ... a missed pitch or two? Whether you want to blame the pitcher or the catcher or both on a ball that comes loose and lets runners advance, well, that’s something best left to the official scorer, usually to nobody’s satisfaction. But on Saturday, the Braves and Cardinals, the two teams locked in a race to the finish for the National League wild-card slot, experienced each side of this simple misplay, by taking turns regretting or celebrating pitches that didn’t get caught. And now, because of that, the outcome of the race remains a concern with just four games to play.

The Cardinals benefited from more than a few errant deliveries from baseball’s reigning wild man, Cubs closer Carlos Marmol. Marmol is the man on the mound most capable of deciding everything at home plate, just not always in a good way, between his walking or hitting batters when he isn’t striking them out, giving up a gopher ball, or seeing the occasional offering hop away, through or off his backstop.

On this particular Saturday afternoon, Marmol failed in his fireman duties, instead delivering a hair-on-fire special that Wrigleyville has only become too familiar with, even with two outs and a one-run lead. But getting hung up on this kind of one-game reprieve distracts from the two things really worth keeping in mind about the Cardinals right now. First, Kyle Lohse followed Chris Carpenter’s Friday night gem with a great game of his own, which is easy to fix on, but these games are a perfect example of how good Cardinals starting pitching has been this month. If you define a quality start by runs allowed and not unearned runs -- you know, by paying attention to the scoreboard rather than the official scorer’s opinion of balls that didn’t get fielded -- the Cards’ front five starters have pitched six innings or more and allowed three runs or less in 15 of 21 games, which goes a long way toward explaining why the Redbirds are 15-7 this month.

The second thing worth keeping in mind is that while the Cardinals failed to scratch out a run against the immortal Rodrigo Lopez, you can be 100 percent certain they won’t have to see him on the mound in this or any October. One game’s just proof that, even with MVP talent in the lineup and a Hall of Fame manager in the dugout, sometimes you really just can’t predict baseball. Other than waning enthusiasm for Skip Schumaker that’s only a year or so overdue, there isn’t much you can complain about with the Cards’ offense down the stretch; it's cranked out 4.5 runs per game in September.

Atlanta’s ballgame was similar, in that the Braves also had to endure the indignity of taking a tough loss at the hands of a far-from-dominant retread, Chien-Ming Wang. But the outcome hinged so much on Brandon Beachy and Brian McCann missing on two pitches in the fourth inning that, if you’re a Braves fan, you have to be agonizing over them still. The second was the more damaging, since it moved both baserunners into scoring position, creating the situation in which both could score on Danny Espinosa’s soft single to left-center. That set up Espinosa’s steal, which set up Ivan Rodriguez’s two out intentional walk -- ordered up by Mr. IBB himself, Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez -- a daisy chain of interdependent events that ended with the indignity of Wang’s RBI single to put the Nats up by four. Football might claim to be the game of inches, but for Beachy’s missing McCann’s glove just barely, it was baseball’s turn to see a team live and die in one game by the narrowest of margins.

These plays, the slightest of mistakes at even the best of times, get magnified because they happened now, when the sense of what’s at stake gets talked up and magnified. Because for one happy team there’s an invitation to a League Division Series at the end of the rainbow, getting to games that mean something, games that mean everything. For the other club, what awaits is a winter’s worth of hunting and club caravans, speaking engagements or -- heaven help them -- golf. These narrowest of margins are the difference between a shot at achieving history versus getting a couple of weeks' head start on the hobbies you’ll spend the rest of your life regretting.

Four games left, and two to make up. The Cardinals might still seem a long shot to make up the difference, but sometimes it’s only the odd inch or two or one man’s bad ballgame that makes all the difference. While the Braves take on the Phillies while hoping for some small measure of mercy from a division rival, the Cardinals have three games to play against the Astros after finishing their series against the Cubs on Sunday. Clearly, it ain’t over until it’s over.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

It has been an up and down, mostly disappointing season for Raul Ibanez, but one thing has been consistent: He likes being home.

Historically streaky throughout his 15-year career, the hot streaks have not outdone the cold ones thus far in 2011 -- evidenced by his .239 average and sub-.700 OPS. At Citizens Bank Park, however, Ibanez is hitting .285 with an .819 OPS, including eight of his 11 home runs. Number eight could not have come at a better time -- a solo shot off of Scott Proctor in the 10th inning to lift the Phillies over the Braves in Friday night's contest.

The walk-off blast was his sixth hit and second homer in his past 15 at-bats, and the Phillies are hoping this is the beginning of one of his patented hot streaks. The preseason favorites in the National League East now have more wins (56) than anyone in the major leagues, but that has happened in spite of their sputtering offense. And suddenly, the second-place Braves are their most serious threat to the division crown -- if you hadn't noticed, Atlanta is second only to Philadelphia in wins (53, tied with Boston).

The Braves struggled out of the gate, heading into May with a 13-15 record. They have gradually improved since then -- the tortoise to the Phillies' hare -- yet, like the Phils, the Braves have struggled offensively. In fact, a quick look at the stats reveals that these two teams are similar in many ways. For example, the two teams are neck and neck atop the NL in ERA, have almost identical OPS marks, and are separated by only nine runs. As good as the Phillies' starting foursome has performed, Braves starters are just a tick below them; they're nearly equal in earned runs allowed and have held opposing batters to a lower batting average. Combine that with Atlanta's otherworldly bullpen, and the Braves' sudden offensive outburst (10 homers, 39 runs, and a .825 OPS so far in July), and one can understand why the Phillies need to be concerned.

Still, the Phillies remain on top, and can widen the gap slightly with another win or two this weekend. A five-game lead heading into the All-Star break would be comfortable but hardly secure considering the Braves' recent surge. Rookie Brandon Beachy stepped up on Friday night, matching Roy Halladay pitch for pitch through six innings in what might have been construed as a "big-game pitcher present" versus "big-game pitcher future." True to his billing, Halladay was one inning better, which in the end may have been the difference as the Phillies’ bullpen needed one less frame to cover. But it was a wake-up call of sorts, showing that while the Phils have the well-known names in their rotation, Atlanta's comparative "no-names" have the ability to hang in there with the elite.

With the Braves pitching nearly as well and starting to hit, the Phillies will need to step up their game to stay on top. It's hard to imagine the Phillies pitching much better so one would think that the bats are key to sustained success. Despite the return of Chase Utley in late May, the Phillies hit only .229 in June, averaging 3.7 runs per game. The various replacements for Jayson Werth have not produced, and table-setters Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco are not setting the table as frequently as in the past. If not for Shane Victorino's big first half, the Phillies might be looking up at the Braves right now. The lack of production in right field could be offset by Ryan Howard continuing his power production, Utley's return to form, and an Ibanez hot streak.

After the first month of the season, it appeared as though the Phillies would fulfill the preseason prophecies and run away with the NL East, while the Braves seemed underachievers. Heading into the final games before the All-Star break, however, these two teams are looking quite similar, and it appears as though they will be fighting the good fight throughout the second half. This weekend serves as a display of those similarities, and a preview of what's to come in the final two and half months of the season.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Joe Janish is the founder of Mets Today, a SweetSpot network affiliate, and has thrown BP to Don Mattingly, caught Jim Bouton's knuckleball, and eaten a meal prepared by Rusty Staub. You can follow him on Twitter here.

I did the Baseball Today podcast with Eric Karabell on Wednesday and randomly mentioned that Colby Lewis is one of the most important pitchers in baseball. He returned from Japan last season and was a huge key to the Rangers' World Series run, winning 12 games with a 3.72 ERA, finishing fifth in the AL in strikeout rate and then beating the Yankees twice in the ALCS and winning his only World Series start. This season, however, he's been up and down, with four starts of six or more runs allowed, but three with zero.

Anyway, after bringing up Lewis, Eric and I decided to each submit our list of the 10 most important pitchers in baseball. The best guys aren't on here; we know Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia and Jon Lester are good and that they just need to stay healthy. So our lists are more a sample of guys who need to keep pitching well or guys who need to step it up. Eric's list tended more to include guys currently pitching like aces; my list tended more towards guys who need to step it up, although we did end up with a few duplicates.

Eric's list
Edinson Volquez, Reds: His ERA is through the roof (5.65), but Dusty Baker chose him for Game 1 of the playoffs last year for a reason, and needs him to anchor the current staff if the Reds are to get back there.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox: Baseball’s ERA leader until Tuesday, if he reverts to his 2010 self this team is in trouble, because depth/health is already an issue.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies: He’s taken over ace duties from Ubaldo Jimenez, and better keep pitching well because no other healthy Rockies starter boasts a sub-4.00 ERA.

Shaun Marcum, Brewers: The real ace of the NL Central leaders so far, he’s dealt with a hip problem lately, and the team has lost six of his past seven starts.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals: The young lefty has won once in eight starts, and one gets the feeling there’s only so long Kyle Lohse can keep his ERA at 2.78.

Erik Bedard, Mariners: He was placed on the disabled list Wednesday, but don’t panic. How the Mariners play in the next month will decide which contender Bedard pitches for the final two months.

Ivan Nova, Yankees: Since I can’t trust Bartolo Colon to stay healthy or Freddy Garcia to stay competent, Nova needs to pitch like the No. 3 starter he occasionally looks like.

Colby Lewis, Rangers: Lefty C.J. Wilson seems safe, but with Alexi Ogando blowing up it’s critical Lewis cuts down on the home runs and gives the Rangers' offense a chance.

Brandon Beachy, Braves: He’s a lot better than most people think, while touted arms Mike Minor and Julio Teheran just don’t seem ready.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: He’s third on the staff in wins, but you won’t win much when allowing 21 runs over your past 12 1/3 innings (three starts). The Tigers need Porcello to fix things.

Dave's list
Colby Lewis, Rangers: Home runs have been his problem as Eric wrote, as he's allowed an AL-leading 20, just one fewer than last season.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: The Red Sox have allowed more runs than the Yankees, so they need Buchholz to return from the DL and give them that solid No. 3 behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals: Lohse isn't going to keep his ERA under 3.00, but with the bullpen in tatters, Tony La Russa needs him to keep soaking up innings ... and keep that ERA close to 3.00.

Edinson Volquez, Reds: Johnny Cueto has been really good lately, but the Reds need somebody else in the rotation to become a strong No. 2.

Fausto Carmona, Indians: He's 4-10 with a 5.89 ERA, including 1-7 with a 7.99 ERA over his past nine starts, and while that hard sinker is still there, the Indians can't afford to wait much longer.

Rick Porcello, Tigers: His ERA is 5.06, his strikeout rate is low, and with Phil Coke just demoted to the pen, the Tigers need second-half improvement from Porcello.

Bartolo Colon, Yankees: He's important precisely because he has been so good.

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks: If Arizona wants to stay in the NL West race, it needs Kennedy to keep pitching like the staff ace he's been, as he's third in the NL in innings pitched and has a 3.01 ERA (excellent for that ballpark).

Zack Greinke, Brewers: He's 7-3 but his ERA is 5.63; his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an excellent 80/12, so odds are that ERA will drop significantly in the second half.

Brandon Beachy, Braves: He's been so impressive in his 10 starts that suddenly the Braves need him to keep it up, considering their lackluster offense.

Follow Eric on Twitter @karabellespn and Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Realignment talk is in the air. But what about ... expansion talk? Certainly, expanding to 32 teams, with eight four-team divisions, would make life easier for realignment and schedule makers. While expansion doesn't appear to be on the table in the near future, our friends at The Platoon Advantage wondered how a mock expansion draft might unfold.

Check out their introduction here, which includes the rules behind their draft and a link to protected players from all 30 teams. You can then check out their first-round selections here ... congrats, B.J. Upton, you were the first pick of the Brooklyn Hipsters. You can check out some of the affiliate sites as well, as many were involved in determining the protected lists and explain their decisions.

Other links to check out

• Keith Law looks at 10 players to watch in this year's Futures Game.
• Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley looks at the Phillies rotation to see if they have a chance to be historically great. The halfway returns: So far, so good.
• Larry Behrendt looks at the Dodgers filing for bankruptcy on what it all means.
• How the Giants are doing it despite a negative run differential? ESPN Insider Jonah Keri explores what's going on with the defending champs.
• The headline on Dave Cameron's piece at FanGraphs says it all -- "Roy Halladay: The Modern Day Sandy Koufax."
• Another "nightly tragedy" for the Mariners. Ichiro is now 6-for-44 (.136) in "close and late" situations.
• What should the Red Sox do about right field? Stick with J.D. Drew? Give the job to Josh Reddick? Explore a trade?
• Is Brandon Beachy developing into an ace?
• A lot discussion going on about Jonah Lehrer's piece at Grantland.com, which discusses the over-reliance on sabermetrics.
• This would be a fun list to do for every franchise.
• Wait ... is Yuniesky Betancourt not quite as bad as we think?
• Finally, don't miss this: The greatest first pitch in history. Definitely better than John Wall's.

In 1985, Dwight Gooden won 24 games, struck out 268 batters and posted a 1.53 ERA, the second-lowest in 60 years.

The next spring, the Mets decided to change Gooden's approach. Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre directed him to not go for so many strikeouts. Later that season, with Gooden going through a rough patch, Stottlemyre told The New York Times, ''I have downplayed the strikeouts with him for the simple reason he doesn't need to strike out 10 batters to have a strong game. The important thing is put zeros on the scoreboard. I probably made too great an emphasis with him on getting ground balls, and not enough on getting pop-ups."

It should be mentioned that Stottlemyre was a ground ball pitcher during his own pitching days. He averaged 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings over his career, far less than the league average during his time. He undoubtedly was coming from a good place; Gooden was just 21 years old, and he wanted to preserve his arm and make him more durable over the long haul.

But Stottlemyre's advice was bad advice. As Bill James wrote in the "1987 Baseball Abstract" about Stottlemyre's thinking, "That's a common belief among baseball men, but it is dead wrong. Among all of the hundreds of issues that I have studied in the ten years I have been doing this, the most definitive evidence I have ever found on any issue is the evidence that the career expectation for a strikeout pitcher is dramatically longer than it is for a control pitcher."

Gooden, who had struck out 11.4 batters per nine innings as a rookie in 1984 and 8.7 in 1985, dropped to 7.2 in 1986. His ERA rose to 2.84. Obviously, Gooden faced extenuating circumstances later in his career -- he entered drug rehab in the spring of 1987 and later injured his shoulder -- but in the summer of 1986, he claimed velocity wasn't an issue.

"'I'm throwing harder than at any time in my career,'' he said, ''but the ball has been going straight and it's been getting hit, and that's been part of the problem." The magic of 1985? Gooden never regained it.

* * * *

After Justin Verlander no-hit the Blue Jays on May 7, I watched his postgame interview, and he said he and Tigers pitching coach Rick Knapp had been working on slowing down his delivery, trying to make it more methodical to improve his consistency and location. He said he even dialed down his fastball early in the game, throwing 92 to 94 mph instead of his customary 96-plus. He didn't exactly say it, but in the back of my mind, I thought, "Uh-oh, that sounds like he could be saying that he's trying to pitch to contact."

Verlander struck out only four Blue Jays that day. On May 24, after he gave up six runs to Tampa Bay, his ERA stood at 3.42. It was looking like another typical Verlander year -- while that's a solid ERA, in 2011 it hardly makes you one of baseball's elite pitchers. (Currently, that would rank only 48th among starting pitchers.) And as good as Verlander has been, he's never had a season ERA less than 3.25 or a top-five finish in ERA in the American League.

But in the six starts since May 24, Verlander is 6-0 with a 0.72 ERA, allowing just four runs in 49 2/3 innings. He's also struck out 51 batters.

Yes, strikeouts matter. As he continues to blow away hitters, it appears to me now that Verlander wasn't working on inducing more contact. He was working on becoming a more dominant pitcher, refining his control and mixing up his repertoire. But he's shown over the past month that he's still trying to strike guys out. And now he's become perhaps the best starter in the game.

* * * *

Fans will invariably say, "Yes, but what about Tom Glavine? Or Greg Maddux. Or Jamie Moyer!"

In Glavine's first Cy Young season, in 1991, he struck out 7.0 batters per nine innings, well more than the National League average of 5.9. In 1998, when he won his second Cy Young, he was still striking out 6.2 per nine, a tick less than the NL average of 6.8. The point is, he had room to work with: He started out above the league average strikeout rate before slowly dipping through the years.

Maddux was even more of a strikeout pitcher than Glavine. During his 1992-98 peak, when he went 127-53 with a 2.15 ERA, his K rate was 6.9 per nine, peaking at 7.8.

Even Moyer will surprise you. He certainly didn't throw hard, but he struck out just enough hitters -- 5.4 per nine over his career -- to pitch forever. Last season he was still averaging 5.1 K's per nine, not a great total, but enough to get by, which is what he did.

And those pitchers, of course, are extreme examples, masters of location, control and changing speeds. Maybe they didn't blow 100 mph fastballs past hitters like Verlander can do, but they still got their swings and misses.

* * * *

I checked the pitchers with the best ERAs since 2008 (at least 500 innings pitched). Among the top 25 pitchers, only Tim Hudson has averaged less than 6.3 K's per nine. Thirteen of the 25 have averaged more than 8.0. For the most part, the best pitchers are strikeout pitchers. Yes, there is an occasional Tim Hudson or Mark Buehrle, who has thrived for years without a high K rate. They are a rare breed.

This is why it's important to check out a pitcher's strikeout rate -- no matter how often your local broadcaster says it's a good thing that Pitcher X isn't trying to strike everybody out anymore. Bottom line: It's difficult to maintain a high level of success without a K rate at least close to the league average (currently about 7.0 per nine innings). Here are some starters to monitor closely:

• Jair Jurrjens, Braves: 2.07 ERA, 5.2 SO/9.
• Jeff Karstens, Pirates: 2.66 ERA, 5.6 SO/9.
• Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks: 2.71 ERA, 5.8 SO/9.
• Phil Humber, White Sox: 2.89 ERA, 5.5 SO/9.
• Kyle Lohse, Cardinals: 2.91 ERA, 4.8 SO/9.
• Dustin Moseley, Padres: 3.03 ERA, 4.4 SO/9.
• Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: 3.09 ERA, 5.7 SO/9.

As I write this, I'm watching Brandon Beachy of the Braves pitch. Most analysts projected him as a fifth-starter type heading into the season. Heading into Monday's start, he had a 3.22 ERA while averaging more than 10 K's per nine. I'm beginning to think he might be better than initially advertised.

Follow David on Twitter @dschoenfield.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

The SweetSpot blog network weighs in with April's best surprises ...

Atlanta Braves
Simply put, the Braves' most pleasant surprise has been Brandon Beachy. At this time last year, Beachy was a virtually unknown prospect at Double-A Mississippi. Now he's leading the Atlanta starting staff in strikeout per nine innings (9.51) and is a prime candidate for the NL Rookie of the Month award for April. At this pace, it's going to be impossible for Mike Minor to unseat him for the fifth-starter role, regardless of his dominance in Triple-A.
--Kevin Orris. Capitol Avenue Club

Florida Marlins
It is absolutely amazing that the Marlins are just a half-game out of first place, especially considering the rough start of Hanley Ramirez (.197/.299/.250). In another amazing twist, given the shaky outfield defense that was expected of them, the Fish have the best defensive efficiency in the National League, turning almost 73 percent of balls in play into outs, and understandably have given up the fewest runs in the Senior Circuit.
--The Common Man, The Platoon Advantage

New York Mets
Though the hot starts of Ike Davis and Jose Reyes have been greatly appreciated by Mets fans, they are not necessarily surprises -- at least, not compared to Pedro Beato. A Rule 5 pick, the hard-throwing Beato began the season as the last man out of the bullpen but has quickly emerged as arguably the Mets' most reliable reliever. Through 12 innings, Beato has yet to allow an earned run, has struck out eight and boasts a 0.75 WHIP. Perhaps most impressive, the youngster is now being called upon in high-leverage, late-inning situations.
--Joe Janish, Mets Today

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies' most pleasant surprise has been Antonio Bastardo. As Brad Lidge, J.C. Romero and Jose Contreras succumbed to injury, Bastardo emerged as a legitimate late-innings option, striking out 15 and allowing just one run in 10 1/3 innings.
--Bill Baer, Crashburn Alley

Washington Nationals
Wilson Ramos has been the Nats' pleasant (yet probably unsustainable) surprise. He is hitting a cool .375/.426/.563, while playing acceptably behind the plate, gunning down three of eight attempted base stealers. Given that he has a batting average on balls in play of around .450, he's sure to cool off a lot, but we're grateful for each additional day he keeps the corpse of Pudge Rodriguez from getting up to bat.
--Harper Gordek, Nationals Baseball

Chicago Cubs
Darwin Barney came into spring training fighting to make the roster. One month into the season, he’s a viable No. 2 hitter in the lineup and deserving of the spot on the All-Star ballot Blake DeWitt is hoarding.
--Joe Aiello, View from the Bleachers

Cincinnati Reds
The plate discipline shown by Jonny Gomes has been the most pleasant surprise, by far. Gomes has drawn 19 walks in the first month (second in the league, behind teammate Joey Votto), after walking only 39 times in the entire 2010 season. Because of Gomes' patience, his OPS remains over .900, despite a batting average hovering around the Mendoza line.
--Chad Dotson, Redleg Nation

Houston Astros
As the last-place team in the NL Central, there's been very little for the Astros to be pleasantly surprised about. But for the team that won one series in April (a distinction the Mets would rather forget), its lone pleasant surprise is Brett Wallace, who is hitting great despite having the unfortunate situation of being sandwiched between Carlos Lee and Bill Hall. He leads the team in batting average (.373), on-base percentage (.441) and slugging (.518).
--Austin Swafford, Austin's Astros 290 Blog

Milwaukee Brewers
The best surprise for the Brewers is they're 12-12 despite Zack Greinke not making a start, Corey Hart missing nearly the entire month and the bullpen leading the majors with seven losses. They can thank the hot starts of Ryan Braun (.356/.454/.689), Prince Fielder (leading the NL with 23 RBIs) and Rickie Weeks (21 runs scored).
--David Schoenfield

Pittsburgh Pirates
In five starts, Charlie Morton already has as many wins as he did in 2010, and his ERA is 60 percent lower. Don't buy into it, though. His 18:18 strikeout-to-walk ratio is highly troubling, and his .253 BABIP is completely unsustainable, even though he's getting 2.25 grounders for every fly ball so far. The Pirates will have to hope the coming regression is accompanied by a return to form for James McDonald, who has been terrible.
--The Common Man, The Platoon Advantage

St. Louis Cardinals
When the Cardinals lost ace Adam Wainwright for the season, the pressure suddenly shifted to their starting rotation. In particular, to Kyle Lohse, the righty who made only 40 starts in the two seasons since signing a hefty 4-year, $41 million contract extension. Given that from 2009-10 his ERA was indistinguishable from his strikeout rate (though, to be fair, his expected Fielding Independent Pitching was much lower), expectations were tempered. So his 2011 campaign thus far -- five Wainwright-like starts with an ERA of 1.64 -- has been the most pleasant surprise for the Cardinals. He is inducing ground balls like never before (48.6 percent) and limiting self-inflicted damage with a walk rate (1.17 walks per nine innings) that Cliff Lee would be proud of. And he's tied for fourth among NL pitchers in Wins Above Replacement.
--Matt Philip, Fungoes.net

Arizona Diamondbacks
Bright spots are fairly few and far between for the D-backs. The starting pitching has been atrocious, but the hitters have proven solid. The most shocking performance has been from Ryan Roberts, a minor league lifer who has seemingly taken over the third-base job by hitting .311/.408/.607 through 20 games. It's not a mirage. Roberts is a legitimate hitter, and as long as his defense holds up, he'll be a very productive and cheap option for the near future.
--The Common Man, The Platoon Advantage

Colorado Rockies
Where in the world did Jonathan Herrera (.317/.442/.429) come from? The 26-year-old has never really done anything like this before and is a good bet to regress. Still, he's done a terrific job of making up for the disappointing, but totally predictable, performances of Ty Wigginton (.233/.309/.383) and Jose Lopez (.143/.169/.254).
--The Common Man, The Platoon Advantage

Los Angeles Dodgers
The return -- and then some -- of Matt Kemp has been the biggest surprise. Even though he has tapered off in his past 10 games, going 10-for-41 with 15 strikeouts, he still has walked six times in that stretch and has had a superb start overall (1.072 OPS). One question is whether his walks reflect better plate discipline or the horrors of the Dodgers lineup after his spot in the order.
--Jon Weisman, Dodger Thoughts

San Diego Padres
In a month of unpleasant surprises, one exception for San Diego has been the performance of catcher Nick Hundley. After splitting duties with veterans Henry Blanco and Yorvit Torrealba the past two seasons, Hundley has assumed a larger role this year and responded. He is hitting .286/.356/.481 and providing the bulk of what little offense the Padres have been able to muster.
--Geoff Young, Ducksnorts

San Francisco Giants
The Giants' most pleasant surprise is this: They're still around .500 despite going through a month bereft of actual pleasant surprises. That's not to say the Giants haven't had good performances, but what's been good hasn't been surprising and what's been surprising hasn't been good. Pablo Sandoval shouldn't surprise anyone when he hits .330 in a month; he'll do that. Buster Posey and Tim Lincecum have played well, yes. They're good, you know. The bad surprises on the other hand: a bushel of injuries, month-long slumps from key regulars and defense that has had fans saying to each other, "You know, I don't think that fellow can really play that position."
--Otis Anderson, Bay City Ball

As you can imagine, with the season nearing, moves being made and players hitting the DL, Eric Karabell and Keith Law had plenty to discuss in Friday's Baseball Today podcast, such as:

• Neftali Feliz named closer for the Rangers.
• Cody Ross out, is Brandon Belt ready?
• The latest on Brad Lidge and Chase Utley.
• Braves' rotation -- Brandon Beachy in, Mike Minor out.
• Yankees sign Kevin Millwood.
• Thoughts on Aroldis Chapman, Jesus Montero, Michael Young and more.