SweetSpot: Brett Anderson
Retread Bartolo Colon gets a better home
Kim Klement/US PresswireBartolo Colon should benefit from a move to Oakland.Knee problems down the stretch helped end his year on a sour note, but Yankee Stadium probably wasn’t the best fit for Colon in the first place. Lefties crushed him for an .880 OPS (against his .621 vs. right-handed batters), and he gave up 15 of his 21 home runs to lefties, including seven of the 11 he allowed at home. Yankee Stadium is the best ballpark for lefty power in the game today, and Colon is essentially a fastball pitcher who survives on changing speeds; his slider’s really just a show-me pitch, so left-handed hitters could afford to sit dead-red and hammer him.
But why should Colon go to the A’s? First, Colon really couldn’t do much better than the Coliseum as far as picking a place to pitch. While he’s been a fly ball-oriented pitcher his entire career, per Baseball Info Solutions, the A’s home park ranked 12th in the AL for three-year park factor for home runs. While everyone likes to harp on how great grounders are, in a park like the Coliseum fly balls aren’t evil -- they’re a high-percentage outcome for getting outs.
Second, the game has a time-honored tradition for retreads marking time with low-budget also-rans fielding a simulacrum of a competitive team while the prospects get readied. That’s what Livan Hernandez was good for with the Nationals the last couple of years, for example. There was no real expectation of greatness, just a hope for 30 workmanlike starts.
Some teams have made providing safe havens for low-cost veterans into a cottage industry. Perhaps the most memorable was the Montreal Expos in the 1980s. They basically spent a decade thriving as a haven for veteran retreads looking to pitch for pennies and rebuild their careers. Dennis Martinez started his second act for the Expos, going 100-72 in eight years with a 3.06 ERA after the Orioles gave up on him. Other veterans who got a new lease on life included Pascual Perez (28-21, 2.80 ERA in 65 starts), Oil Can Boyd (16-14, 3.15 ERA in 50 starts). The benefits of trawling in this end of the market was perhaps best reflected by Zane Smith: Picked up for nothing from the Braves in 1989, then dealt a year later in 1990 with a 2.79 ERA as an Expo. The payoff? Moises Alou, Willie Greene and lefty reliever Scott Ruskin.
For a veteran pitcher like Colon or Erik Bedard (who signed a one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Pirates a month ago), one of the nice benefits of signing with a team headed nowhere is that you don’t have to worry about picking the right team if you want to pitch on a contender. The contenders have better Plan A options, at least until injuries hit. Perhaps the best way to be a Plan B alternative is pitch somewhere in the majors that’s ready to deal you at the first sign of success. Pitch well, and your grateful dumpster-diving temporary employer will agreeably flip you to a winner worried about its rotation depth at the end of July or August.
Finally, Oakland flat-out needs warm bodies to help guarantee that they won’t be piling up mileage on the Sacramento shuttle from Triple-A. With cost control being job one for Billy Beane and David Forst, the last thing they want to do is start the service-time clocks of Jarrod Parker or Brad Peacock any earlier than necessary.
That won’t be easy to do, considering the fragility of almost all of the A’s current rotation choices. Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson are both going to be trying to come back from injury-marred 2011 seasons, while Guillermo Moscoso, Josh Outman and Brandon McCarthy all have unhappy track records where the DL is concerned. The bloated Colon may be a doubtful paragon of durability, but he’ll help fill up game time and roster space for the time being.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Podcast: Keith Law breaks down the draft
1. Keith tells us the winners, losers and other interesting facts from the Monday portion of the draft, including why the Tampa Bay Rays couldn't help but succeed, and how the No. 2 overall pick might not have been the correct one.
2. What does the term "over slot" mean and why are so many teams likely to pay their new youngsters well, and likely anger the league office?
3. Bryce Harper gets himself into the news for something he did Monday ... but there might be repercussions. Is the atty-tude warranted?
4. Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Rubby De La Rosa makes his first start in Philadelphia Tuesday, and Mr. Law tells us why his future is a bright one.
5. There's plenty to watch on Tuesday night, but here's why among the names we're rooting for include Vin Mazzaro and Kyle Drabek. Hey, don't get Mazzaroed!
Plus: Excellent emails, why we fear the worst for Brett Anderson, Milwaukee's haul from Monday, how the Nationals and Royals could be ruling MLB in a few years and congratulations to Chicago White Sox left-hander John Danks, all on a packed Tuesday edition of Baseball Today!
The franchise draft: Round 2!
AP Photo/Christine CotterMiguel Cabrera suprisingly didn't get picked in the first round of ESPN.com's franchise player draft.So we decided to see who the next 30 players might be. Now, the owners below didn't draft the players, but we included the names since the first-round pick may have affected the second-round pick. Dave went first and made all the odd picks, while Eric made the even selections.
31. Doug Glanville (Wilson Ramos): Miguel Cabrera -- Best hitter on the board, could have easily gone in the top 10. Not much defensively or in the car, but he can rake.
32. Tristan H. Cockcroft (Justin Upton): Adrian Gonzalez -- How are these great offensive monsters slipping so far? Tristan would have his 3-4 hitters for a while.
33. Barry Larkin (Roy Halladay): Jay Bruce -- Roy says he wants a big power bat for the middle of the order. And Bruce is a solid defender as well and just 24.
34. Buster Olney (Michael Pineda): Ryan Zimmerman -– It’s good to have strong defense at the hot corner, and Zimmerman brings that. Hopefully he brings more health, but he’s only 26.
35. Jonah Keri (Jose Bautista): Jered Weaver -- This team is in win-now mode with Bautista, so we’ll go with Jered Weaver, the best ace left on the board.
36. Tim Kurkjian (Clayton Kershaw): Tommy Hanson -- Why stop with one ace? Timmy would have the best one-two rotation punch in baseball!
37. Jayson Stark (Carlos Gonzalez): Jose Reyes -- We thought about the appropriately named Jayson Nix, but we’ll take a 28-year shortstop having his best season.
38. Rick Sutcliffe (Neftali Feliz): Elvis Andrus -- One Texas Ranger isn’t enough, and while Reyes is terrific, Andrus is 22 and has a lot of growing to do. Someday soon, he could be Reyes.
39. Kevin Goldstein (Stephen Strasburg): Eric Hosmer -- KG is a prospect hound so let’s give him Hosmer, who could be the best hitter in the game in a couple of years ... and the next decade after that.
40. Mark Mulder (Mike Stanton): Cole Hamels -- Gotta love the lefties! You say Weaver is the best ace on the board … I beg to differ!
41. Matt Meyers (Hanley Ramirez): Andrew McCutchen -- At least Eric didn’t give Mulder Ryan Howard. I’ll take the five-tool center fielder to go with our five-tool shortstop.
42. Jerry Crasnick (Starlin Castro): Matt Kemp -- Well, I had McCutchen all ready to go there, but Jerry profiled Matt Kemp back in March, and I got the feeling he believed a rebound season was coming. Kemp is, after all, only 26.
43. Christina Kahrl (Buster Posey): Colby Rasmus -- You can have Kemp. I'll take the center fielder with good on-base skills, power, good defense and is two years younger.
44. Jason Churchill (Carlos Santana): Jeremy Hellickson -- Jason’s catcher needs someone to throw to him. Hellickson might end up the AL Rookie of the Year, and there’s no reason he can’t keep improving.
45. Steve Berthiaume (Justin Verlander): Dustin Pedroia -- Off to a slow start, but he's a good hitter and fielder at a premium position. Plus, Steve is a big Sox fan.
46. Jim Caple (Joe Mauer): Prince Fielder -– At least one of Caple’s players should be durable and possess power. Fielder certainly can hit home runs. And when he moves Mauer from behind the plate, it wouldn’t be to first base, anyway!
47. Aaron Boone (Robinson Cano): CC Sabathia -- With Cano on board, Boone wants to win now, so it's the big, workhorse lefty who still has 7-8 more good years in. Or maybe 15 if he goes to Bartolo Colon's doctor.
48. Jim Bowden (David Price): Manny Machado –- Jim does love the prospects, and why do I (Bryce Harper) and Jason Grey (Mike Trout) get all the fun of choosing minor leaguers? Machado is an easily projectable shortstop and I’m sure Jim would agree he is worth waiting until 2013 for.
49. Jason Grey (Mike Trout): Brett Anderson: Jason is crushed by the Machado pick, but Anderson is a nice consolation prize.
50. Orel Hershiser (Jon Lester): Brian McCann -- I knew Grey would have wanted Machado! Orel probably scoffed at that and myriad other picks. He wants to win right now. McCann is arguably the best offensive catcher (with power) in the game, and he’s 27. Orel would love this pick!
51. Mark Simon (Ryan Braun): Drew Stubbs -- Mets fan Simon can't pull the trigger on David Wright and takes Stubbs and his 30/30 potential and terrific range in center.
52. Eric Karabell (Bryce Harper): Mat Latos -- Hey, it’s actually my pick! I’d better get my ace here. I considered Zack Greinke, but Latos is four years younger, and even if my home ballpark is small, I think Latos could overcome it. Plus, I’ll get him more run support.
53. Enrique Rojas (Albert Pujols): Carl Crawford -- Obviously, we're banking on both Pujols and Crawford just having slow starts. They'll bounce back ... right???
54. Jorge Arangure Jr. (Jason Heyward): Matt Wieters -- Jorge said he chose Heyward because he wanted a gifted offensive force for another 15 years. Enter Wieters, who will hit and head to many All-Star games.
55. Chris Singleton (Josh Johnson): Asdrubal Cabrera -- Nice grab on Wieters there, EK. I'm a believer in Cabrera, who is just 25 and pounding the ball so far this season. Even if he fades, we're talking about a switch-hitting shortstop with 15-20 homers and solid D.
56. Amy Nelson (Tim Lincecum): Logan Morrison -- Amy has her freaky ace, now she gets a young on-base machine developing power quicker than most thought. Plus, Amy and Logan will be Tweeting about their franchise 24/7. It’s a win-win.
58. David Schoenfield (Felix Hernandez): Pepe Frias -- HA! I control Schoenfield’s pick here! He gets the late-1970s shortstop that slugged .290 in his career, with one home run (off John Candelaria, no less) and he’s 62 years old. OK, he can have Shin-Soo Choo. We know he’s got power and good years left.
59. Keith Law (Evan Longoria): Brian Matusz. C'mon, EK, you know I'd take Terry Harmon over Pepe Frias. Give Klaw Matusz, a future Cy Young winner ... with the Yankees.
60. Karl Ravech (Troy Tulowitzki): Mark Teixeira -- All the things that Karl mentioned on his first overall pick make sense here. Consistent power, contract is set, winning organization ... Karl’s gonna score some runs! Plus, with the 61st pick in the franchise draft, he could always get some pitching ... wanna keep going?
Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireAfter striking out 638 times during the 2008-10 seasons, Mark Reynolds was traded to the Orioles.So, what went wrong?
1. The 2007 team wasn't that good. Despite winning 90 games it was actually outscored 732 to 712 and despite playing in a great hitter's park, ranked just 14th in the NL in runs and 16th in batting average and on-base percentage. In truth the Diamondbacks had a bad offense -- granted, one that could be expected to improve due to the young hitters ... but how much?
2. The Eric Byrnes contract. Late in the 2007, the team signed the scrappy Byrnes to a three-year, $30 million extension. Byrnes had a nice 2007, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 50 bases. But he was 31 years old and the contract proved a disaster as Byrnes hit .218 over two seasons before getting released.
3. Thinking they need to improve upon a rotation of Brandon Webb, Livan Hernandez, Doug Davis and Micah Owings, the team traded Gonzalez and Anderson to the A's for Dan Haren. Haren was traded last season to the Angels for a mediocre Joe Saunders and prospect Tyler Skaggs, who is several years from the majors. So, for Gonzalez and Anderson the team basically received two-plus years of Haren and a bottom-of-the-rotation starter.
4. Brandon Webb's injury. The team's ace and 2006 Cy Young winner, Webb won 22 games in 2008 before hurting his shoulder.
5. A related note has been Arizona's complete inability to develop starting pitchers. Once you get past Webb, the starting pitcher developed from within with the most victories in a D-backs uniform is Owings, who won just 14.
6. Strikeouts, strikeouts, strikeouts. The homer-happy approach of the lineup went too far. After striking out the 10th and 11th most times in history in 2008 and 2009, the team set the all-time record in 2010, whiffing an amazing 1,529 times, with five players striking out at least 145 times. The strikeouts became a major hindrance to the young hitters becoming bigger stars, most notably Upton, who followed an excellent 2009 with a disappointing 2010. Young has been inconsistent and the team finally gave up on 200-strikeout man Reynolds, trading him to the Orioles.
7. Too much lost talent: Quentin, Alberto Callaspo and Jose Valverde were all traded and Orlando Hudson left as a free agent. The Diamondbacks have nothing on the current roster to show for those guys.
8. Bullpen blues. The pen -- led by closer Valverde -- was excellent in 2007, but slowly deteriorated to the point that Baseball Prospectus analyzed the 2010 pen as the fourth-worst since 1950.
This much is clear: The days of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling heating up the desert seem long ago.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.
Oakland's Anderson still most talented A
- As mentioned, Cahill has really good traditional stats, but a quick check of his peripherals show he has not been as impressive as those numbers suggest. His 5.31 K/9 IP is poor and his 2.89 BB/9 is acceptable, but only with a higher strikeout rate. In addition to the mediocre control rates, his .237 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is not likely to be repeated again (league average is typically around .300). Cahill is a fine young pitcher with a terrific groundball rate (55.7% ranks among the league leaders) and plenty of room to improve. But buyers beware next season - his ERA's likely to rise, and 17 or more wins might be a reach.
You think? W/L-wise, Cahill might be the biggest (positive) fluke of this season. It'll be akin to a miracle if he wins 15 games next season. Especially considering the Athletics' chronically anemic hitting.
But yes, Cahill's been the biggest surprise, Sheets has been the biggest bust -- as long as I live, I'll never figure that one out -- and Gonzalez is a keeper.
He's not the only one, though.
Dallas Braden shares Cahill's strikeout rate but has walked roughly 30 percent fewer hitters. Not to mention founding the autonomous region of Bradenia. (Granted, Braden's been both hit-lucky -- like Cahill -- and probably homer-lucky this season, so he's also a candidate for ERA regression.)
And Oakland's best starting pitcher is the guy with the 6-6 record: 22-year-old Brett Anderson. In 48 major league starts, he's got a 3.62 ERA and a 3.32 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Anderson missed two months in the middle of the season with an elbow injury, but since coming off the DL in late July he's pitched as well as ever. The only category he wins is probably "2011 Cy Young candidate if he doesn't get hurt again."
This question occurred to me upon the news that Andrew Bailey had won the American League's award this year. Not that Bailey didn't enjoy a wonderful 2009 season. From the Mercury News' Joe Stiglich:
The award caps an improbable ride for Bailey, a roster long shot in spring training who wound up making the All-Star team and setting an Oakland rookie record with 26 saves.
Many considered Texas Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus the favorite for the award. Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello also had strong credentials. Both played instrumental roles on teams that challenged for the postseason, unlike the last-place A's.
But Bailey received 13 of 28 first-place votes from the Baseball Writers Association of America. His 88 points easily outdistanced Andrus (65) and Porcello (64). A's starting pitcher Brett Anderson finished sixth.
--snip--
He became the unlikely star of a bullpen that turned out to be the A's biggest strength of 2009. Bailey was struggling as a starter for Double-A Midland when he converted to relieving midway through the 2008 season.
The change paid quick dividends. He led AL relievers with a .167 opponents' batting average this season to go with a 1.84 ERA. He didn't blow a save after June 16, and his 26 saves tied for the sixth-most ever by an AL rookie.
John Williamson/MLB Photos/Getty ImagesAndrew Bailey set an Oakland rookie record with 26 saves.It was certainly an impressive season, as Bailey anchored a bullpen that was almost literally the Athletics' only bright spot in a last-place season. Still, I can't help but wondering: What if Bailey had pitched in the first half of the season exactly as well as he did, but generally in eighth innings rather than ninths? What if he'd finished the season with a 1.84 ERA (as he actually did) but with 17 saves rather than 26.
If those things had happened, would Bailey still have been the Rookie of the Year?
I think we know the answer to that question.
Meanwhile, Anderson went 11-11 with a 4.06 ERA and an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 starts. But what if Anderson had pitched for a better team and been a little luckier, and gone 15-7 rather than 11-11. If that had happened, would Anderson have been the Rookie of the Year?
No, probably not. Anderson actually finished sixth, and Rookie of the Year voters almost certainly can't be expected to fall in love with a pitcher whose ERA starts with a 4.
Just in terms of value, though? Anderson pitched 175 innings. He was one of three American League starters who showed up on Rookie of the Year ballots, and finished well behind the other two, Porcello and Jeff Niemann. Well behind: Porcello got 64 points, Niemann 21, and Anderson 4.
You're familiar with a statistic called FIP, right? That's Fielding Independent Pitching, which essentially is an ERA with the luck stripped away. Anderson's FIP was 3.69, the eighth best in the American League (Josh Beckett was seventh, John Lackey ninth). Niemann's FIP was 4.08, Porcello's 4.77.
Yes, it seems likely that Anderson has the best future of the three. But forget about that. I don't think the future should have any bearing whatsoever in Rookie of the Year voting. Not even the tiniest iota. What I'm saying is that in 2009, Anderson was the best rookie pitcher in the American League. Just as Randy Wells -- who also finished sixth in Rookie of the Year balloting -- was the best rookie pitcher in the National League.
Was Anderson the best player in the American League? That's a little tougher, as Andrus gave the Rangers Gold Glove-quality defense at shortstop. The only thing I'm sure about is that if the voters wanted an Athletic, they should have gone with the guy who started 30 games and pitched as well as John Lackey.
This isn't in the release, but would you believe that Andrus is the only American League rookie who's going to wind up with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title? Andrus is going to clear 502 plate appearances by a dozen or so, while nobody else is going to reach even 450. That alone wouldn't be enough to push Andrus past candidates Gordon Beckham and Nolan Reimold. It's his 33 steals and excellent defense at shortstop that do that.
Does that mean he's the best candidate? Well, I think it probably means he'll win the award. But it doesn't mean he's the only worthwhile candidate. A's closer Andrew Bailey has pitched brilliantly, with a 1.88 ERA and a lovely strikeout-to-walk ratio. And there are some starting pitchers ... well, there are four of them. And that's the problem. Jeff Niemann, Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, and Ricky Romero all have roughly a dozen wins and ERA's right around 4. It's hard for me to imagine many voters sorting through them, and arriving at a particularly good choice.
That choice does exist, though. Anderson's 11-11 record is the worst in the group, but he's got more strikeouts than everyone else and fewer walks. It's because of those strikeouts and walks that I probably would vote for Anderson.
Again, though, Andrus is a worthy candidate. As the release points out, Andrus is the first 20-year-old to play 140 games in the American League since Alex Rodriguez, 13 years ago. What's most impressive about Elvis Andrus isn't his performance or his age; it's the incredibly rare combination. I cannot advocate giving an award to a player because of what he will do, someday. But if you could have just one of these young men for the next five seasons, Andrus would be the one.
- Gio Gonzalez pitches his second consecutive short shutout as he allows seven hits and one walk over six innings against the Orioles. That gives him 12 2/3 straight scoreless innings, and four runs in his last four starts, covering 24 2/3 innings. Gonzalez is turning out to be a bit of good news as the Athletics play out the string.
1. "Short shutout" is a better term than "shortout" (or "short-out").
2. Gio Gonzalez is going to make it.
Since rejoining the A's in late June, Gonzalez is 5-4 with a 5.23 ERA. Of course that's nothing special, but there's one disastrous start in there. Take out that one, and Gonzalez has been just fine for a 23-year-old starting pitcher who's getting just his second taste of the Big Boy League.
Also, his 6.41 career ERA is accompanied by 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings. That's a good thing.
He throws hard enough, hard enough anyway to set up his sweeping curveball. Also a good thing.
What's not good is Gonzalez's walk rate. He's walked nearly five batters per nine innings this season, he walked 6.6 per nine innings last season, and he's walked 4.6 per nine innings in Triple-A. A pitcher can survive high walk rates if the strikeouts are coming, too.
But survival's not good enough. Not for the A's, anyway. They need to develop at least two star pitchers and possibly three. Right now the top candidates are Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez, and young Brett Anderson. Braden has to get a little bit better. Anderson has to stay healthy. And Gonzalez has to keep most of the strikeouts while dropping roughly one walk per start.
Simple as that!
