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The Reds received a game-changing grand slam in the sixth inning to take a 5-2 lead against the Braves on Thursday night, leading to their sixth consecutive victory and their first sweep of the Braves since 1980. It wasn’t superstar Joey Votto who provided the knockout punch, nor was it mainstays Brandon Phillips or Jay Bruce. The home run came off the bat of one of the Reds’ many unheralded young players: 23-year-old rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco.

The blast also marked Cincinnati’s 10th home run of the series, leading to 14 of its 16 runs in the series. Winning with home runs is nothing new for this Reds squad, not at Great American Ball Park and certainly not in the Joey Votto era. But Votto didn’t hit a single homer in the series. Neither did Bruce. Phillips hit two. Instead of the three stalwarts on this Reds squad, it was the supporting cast leading the way: Mesoraco (1), Drew Stubbs (3), Zack Cozart (2), Todd Frazier (1) and Mike Leake (1).

Leake’s homer backed up a quality start on Monday, and the other home runs backed up quality starts from Mat Latos (Tuesday), Bronson Arroyo (Wednesday) and Homer Bailey (Thursday). The Reds saw scoreless outings from five different relievers and saves converted by three. To accomplish this in any series is excellent; to do so against the second-highest-scoring team in the league in one of the best hitters’ parks in all of baseball is another.

Depth and pitching have set this year’s Reds squad apart from last year’s version, a preseason favorite for the National League Central crown that was eventually lapped by both the Brewers and Cardinals. The 2011 season saw a 156 OPS+ from Votto and 119 OPS+ marks from both Phillips and Bruce. No other full-time starters came close; only part-time players Chris Heisey (113), Ramon Hernandez (113) and Miguel Cairo (101) even mustered an above average mark.

This season has seen the likes of Paul Janish, Edgar Renteria and Jonny Gomes excised in favor of Cozart (.727 OPS) and Frazier (.887). It has seen Stubbs come to life after three horrible series to open the year -- he owns a .266/.324/.430 line since April 17 to go with his typical fantastic defense. It’s seen Ryan Hanigan pick up his game as well, with a .794 OPS in 27 games as the starting catcher.

Johnny Cueto owns a phenomenal 2.22 ERA over 33 starts dating back to May 2011, but it was the other four Cincinnati starters who held down the Braves this week. Latos started out cold, but has a 2.35 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 23 innings in May. Arroyo has a 121 ERA+ after allowing a near-record 46 home runs last season, owning an absurd 44-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 58.2 innings. Bailey and Leake have had their rough spots, but they fit well in the back of the Reds’ rotation -- a tough job with half of their starts coming in the bandbox in Cincinnati.

The bullpen has established itself as one of the league’s best. Regardless of what one thinks Aroldis Chapman’s role should be, it is undeniable that he is the league’s best reliever. In the four-game sweep of the Braves, he pitched two more scoreless innings. Chapman fronts a bullpen full of talented pitchers: Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek and Alfredo Simon all own ERA+ marks of 137 or higher. Sean Marshall shouldn’t be counted out either despite a rough start -- he was one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons.

The Reds currently sit atop the NL Central, with a half-game lead over the Cardinals. As usual, Votto, Phillips, Cueto and Bruce lead the way. But if the Reds maintain their current success and carry it through to a playoff run, it will be because this year they didn’t have to do it all themselves.

There was a time when Jake Peavy was mentioned in the same breath as pitchers like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. There was a time when Peavy might have been better than all of them -- the best in the game, in fact.

The last year he started 30 games was in 2007. That season he led the National League in wins, ERA, strikeouts, fewest baserunners allowed per nine innings and most strikeouts per nine. He was the only starter in the major leagues with an ERA under 3.00. He collected all 32 first-place votes in the NL Cy Young Award balloting.

"I can definitely get better," Peavy said after winning the award. "I've got a long way to go to be who I want to be." Maybe he was referring to not throwing a complete game that season. Maybe he was referring to Game No. 163, the playoff tiebreaker in Colorado. Peavy gave up 10 hits and six runs in 6 1/3 innings in a game the Padres eventually lost in the 13th inning. He was 26 years old, a Cy Young winner with two ERA titles under his belt, but he still wanted to prove he was the best pitcher in baseball.

This isn't the way he wanted it to happen, but it's May 2012 and right now Jake Peavy is back on top: He's the best pitcher in baseball. That's right: Better than Halladay or Verlander or Clayton Kershaw or Jered Weaver.

It's an amazing comeback story from a guy who has battled four years of injuries, and not just the routine battle scars that pitchers have to overcome. In 2010, he feared his career could be over. A quick look back at that list of injuries:

2008: He went on the disabled in May with a sore elbow, missed a month and ended up making 27 starts and posting a 2.85 ERA.

2009: Strained a tendon in his right ankle rounding a base in late May, an injury that eventually landed him on the DL. Traded to the White Sox while disabled, Peavy returned in September to make three strong starts. In 16 starts, he finished 9-6 with a 3.45 ERA.

2010: In July, Peavy ruptured the tendon that attaches the latissimus dorsi muscle to the rear of the right shoulder. He became the first major league pitcher to undergo an experimental surgery involving stitches and titanium anchors. His season was over after 17 starts.

2011: Missed time at the start of the season with shoulder tendinitis, later pulled a groin and then was shut down in September due to arm fatigue. He made 18 starts.

Now he's healthy for the first time in a long time. "I’m a different guy than since you've probably ever seen me, just as far as feeling OK on the mound, being able to worry about making pitches, worrying about game planning not sitting in the trainer room the whole time in between days," he told ESPN Chicago a couple starts ago.

Watching him pitch on Wednesday, he looked like the Peavy from his Padres heyday, mixing his fastball, cutter, tight slider, curveball and changeup from that slightly herky-jerky delivery of his. For all the talk of Yu Darvish's wide arsenal of pitchers, Peavy also throws a kitchen sink repertoire. He cruised through six shutout innings against Cleveland before surrendering a run in the seventh as the White Sox scored an 8-1 victory. He threw first-pitch strikes to 18 of 28 batters and while he rarely topped at more than 90 mph on his fastball, he pitched with precision while changing speeds.

Best in the game? A bold statement, yes, but through seven starts nobody's been better. Check the numbers:

• 4-1, 1.89 ERA, with just 11 runs allowed in seven starts.
• Tied with Felix Hernandez for most innings pitched.
• .189 batting average allowed, .221 OBP allowed (third behind only Matt Cain and Jered Weaver), .482 OPS allowed (fifth).
• Strikeout/walk ratio of 44 to 7, third-best behind Cole Hamels and Bronson Arroyo.

What's impressive about this seven-start run is Peavy has had to face most of the hard-hitting lineups in the American League: two starts against Detroit, plus Texas, Boston, Baltimore and Cleveland. He has one start against Oakland. Weaver, for instance, has faced the Twins in three of his seven starts and hasn't faced Detroit, Texas or Boston.

Now, whether Peavy can keep it going and remain healthy is another issue. Entering his Wednesday start, he was the most extreme fly-ball starting pitcher in the majors, although he has allowed just two home runs. He did induce groundballs on nine of his 15 non-strikeout outs on Wednesday, but skeptics would suggest that his home run rate isn't sustainable. That's certainly likely, but you can see from his heat maps that while he's been pitching up in the zone, he's doing a good job of keeping the ball away from hitters.



Amazingly, Peavy isn't the only comeback story for the White Sox. Designated hitter Adam Dunn's career appeared to be in jeopardy for other reasons after suffering through one of the worst seasons in major league history last year, with a batting average I don't even want to repeat.

Dunn, however, has been one of the most valuable hitters in the game so far, slugging his 10th home run on Wednesday, a two-run bomb off Jeanmar Gomez in the first inning. Dunn is hitting .243/.384/.586 and he's tied for third in the majors in homers and ranks ninth in RBIs and 15th in OPS.

Whether Dunn can keep this up is also a fair question. His strikeout rate of 34.1 percent is close to 2011's 35.7 percent, both figures well above Dunn's career mark of 27.7 percent. Basically, last year his fly balls were caught; this year, they're landing on the good side of the fence. But he's also lofting the ball more than a year ago; only four players are hitting a higher percentage of fly balls than Dunn. When you're as big and strong as Dunn, fly balls are a good thing.

Still, you have to connect with the sweet part of the wood. And White Sox fans have hearing that sweet sound so far.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Matt Cain has been flummoxing statheads almost as long as he has been flummoxing opposing hitters. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound right-hander has quietly become one of baseball's premier pitchers since earning a regular spot in the San Francisco Giants' rotation in 2006, despite a career xFIP (4.26) nearly a full run higher than his career ERA (3.37).

Utilizing a typical starting pitcher's tool chest -- fastball, slider, changeup, curve -- Cain has posted an ERA between 2.88 and 3.14 in each of the past three seasons, but stood in the background as teammate and 2008-09 back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum shone in the spotlight. Sabermetricians labeled Cain a fluke, bound to regress to a 4.50 ERA that was more in line with his xFIP.

In fact, many balked when the Giants awarded Cain a six-year, $127.5 million contract extension nearly two weeks ago. Cain has never finished higher than eighth in Cy Young balloting and never posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio in excess of 3-1. How could he possibly be worth that much money?

Cain showed exactly how in this afternoon's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He brought a perfect game into the sixth inning, allowing his first hit with two out in the frame to opposing starter James McDonald on his way to a 5-0 Giants victory. The home crowd in San Francisco gave him a lengthy and appreciative standing ovation, perhaps a penance for worrying after his first start, in which the Arizona Diamondbacks tagged him for five runs over six innings.

While he is not known for his ability to strike batters out on a frequent basis, Cain has posted an average strikeout rate (a shade under 20 percent) over his career. Today, Cain struck out 11 Pirates, utilizing expert pitch sequencing. ESPN Stats & Information notes that eight of his 11 punchouts were on pitches out of the strike zone, and overall, Pirates hitters chased at 58 percent of pitches out of the zone.

An added bonus to being so unpredictable is weak contact. Since 2006, among starters with at least 1,000 innings pitched, Cain has the fourth-highest infield fly ball rate at 12.6 percent, trailing Ted Lilly (13.8), Jered Weaver (13.6), and Bronson Arroyo (12.7). As a result, Cain's career batting average on balls on play sits at .265, about 35 points below the average for pitchers and the point to which most pitchers regress. That low BABIP is the reason most expected him to regress, but he has proven he has an ability to limit hits on balls in play better than most pitchers, which is a rare skill.

If Cain had authored the 273rd no-hitter in baseball history, he certainly would have gained some recognition across the baseball world. But in reality, his resume is already impressive enough, and he has been everything the Giants had hoped for when they drafted him in the first round of the 2002 draft and, at 27 years old, there is plenty more still to come.

Bill Baer writes for Crashburn Alley and you can follow him on Twitter here.

To put it delicately, Dusty Baker has a conflicted history with starting pitchers. There was that decision on the final day of the 1993 pennant race to give the ball to a rookie named Salomon Torres. Or handing the game ball to Russ Ortiz when he removed him with a lead in Game 6 of the 2002 World Series. Or letting Mark Prior rack up some astronomical pitch counts back in 2003.

Now Dusty has another tough decision to make: Who starts for his Cincinnati Reds? As I said on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, it could be the most crucial decision any manager makes in 2012.

You see, Baker has options. Most managers are forced to make a decision only by a certain string of events -- one player gets hurt, you go with your next-best option or whomever management calls up from Triple-A. You rarely even see position battles in spring training anymore. But for Baker and the Reds, it's not that simple. Once you get past Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake, the Reds have four options for the rotation: Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman and Jeff Francis. Having options is a good thing, of course. But what makes those four players so intriguing is that any of the four could work out; any of the four could blow up.

Here's a review of the four:

Bronson Arroyo: After winning 17 games with a 3.88 ERA in 2010, the Reds' inexplicably gave him a two-year extension through 2013 at $23.5 million. Bronson did have a good year in 2010, but he was still a home run-prone pitcher with a declining strikeout rate. Among 92 qualified starters that year, he ranked 82nd in K's per nine. In 2011, he ranked 86 of 93 ... and his home runs allowed skyrocketed to 46, the third-highest single-season total ever. So while there's a very good chance he's done, he's also owed a lot of money. And he's a veteran. Dusty loves those veterans. He hasn't pitched well this spring -- nine innings, two home runs, three walks, three strikeouts.

Homer Bailey: The seventh pick in the 2004 draft, we've been hearing about Bailey ever since, first as a prospect and then as perennial disappointment. His ERA didn't reflect it, but he did make some progress in 2011, cutting his walks to 2.3 per nine while maintaining an acceptable strikeout rate (7.2 per nine). I penciled him as a good breakout candidate. He hasn't pitched well: 11.1 innings, three home runs, six walks, three strikeouts -- although he did pitch four scoreless innings in his last outing.

Aroldis Chapman: The big Cuban with the 100-mph fastball is being given a chance to start again after spending 2011 in the Reds' bullpen, where he was unhittable (.147 average allowed) but Ricky Vaughn-esque (41 walks in 50 innings). Does he have the stamina to last as a starter? In seven innings in big league spring games he's allowed just one walk with seven K's.

Jeff Francis: Signed to a minor league deal, the veteran left-hander has looked good this spring with no walks and eight strikeouts in 13 innings.

What does Baker do? Bailey is out of options so has to remain on the roster. He could go to the bullpen but the Reds are already seven deep there. Chapman could be sent down to Triple-A to get more starts under his belt, although that would deprive Baker of a big bullpen weapon. Francis has said he'll report to Triple-A if required.

The easiest solution is probably to send Chapman down and let him make at least a few starts in Triple-A. The issue there: What if he's better than Bailey? What if Arroyo can't curb his gopherball issues? How long do you stick with either guy? The Reds don't project as a powerhouse, so every game could be crucial to making the playoffs or just missing the playoffs.

The spotlight is intense on Baker. I can't wait to see what he and GM Walt Jocketty decide to do.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

On Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast, SweetSpot writer Dave Schoenfield and I had loads of fun, as we always do, discussing not only the pertinent breaking news of the day, but Shoeless Joe Jackson and Jay Johnstone (he wears his shoes apparently) as well.

1. Chipper Jones says this will be his final season, and we aim to put his tremendous career in proper perspective, while also looking ahead for the Braves.

2. The defending champs could be without No. 1 starter Chris Carpenter for a little while or a long while, but should the Cardinals panic?

3. Homer Bailey is scuffling this spring and Aroldis Chapman and Jeff Francis are not. Is Dusty Baker on the hot seat in Cincinnati and who will be the No. 5 starter?

4. We love our emails! Dave and I reminisce about the greatest season ever voting from a few weeks ago, Jacoby Ellsbury’s worth in baseball and to the Red Sox, and much more!

5. Why was Jay Johnstone hitting right-handed in the movie I watched this morning? Does it bother anyone else? Thankfully, when it comes to inaccuracy in flicks, I’m not alone!

So download and listen to Thursday’s fun Baseball Today podcast because, let’s face it, Dave and I had a good time and that’s what this should be about!

One of the reliable tropes about both general managers and managers is that everybody’s good at something. Some managers might be exceptionally good with getting the most out of a veteran roster, and some GMs might be especially effective in adding that talent. Certainly, in Cincinnati a win-now hook was part of the rationale behind enabling Walt Jocketty’s palace coup when he took over the Reds from Wayne Krivsky at the start of the 2008 season. That was certainly part of the reason why they’d already put Dusty Baker in the dugout as well.

And to some extent, you can call the last four seasons in Cincinnati a modest success. Through 2011, payroll had only grown 17 percent (before inflation). The Reds have significantly raised their performance margins within the old Bill James “Plexiglass Principle”: Instead of ping-ponging between 70 and 80 wins as they had during the Aughties, they’ve won 78, 91 and 79 games the past three years, a much happier range to be bouncing around.

And for all that, they’re about as exasperating a team as you could imagine, because Jocketty and Baker are supposed to deliver. Last season’s climb back down below 80 wins from their 2010 Central Division title was all the more disappointing because so many questions remain unanswered. Perhaps first and foremost among those questions is their rotation -- deep, talented and immensely frustrating.

Before the 2010 season, you could be understandably excited about the Reds’ rotation depth. In the abstract, a list with Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood and Aroldis Chapman on it is supposed to make you excited about a team’s near-term future.

Unfortunately, that was before so many things went wrong. For all that talent, the Reds rotation averaged a Game Score of 50 on the season, better than just four teams in the league. Cueto’s shot at winning the National League ERA title was squelched by shoulder woes early and neck problems late in the year. Chapman was sent to the pen, struggled with his command, and shipped to the minors, remaining in relief role after his return. Bailey landed on the disabled list twice, and it was his right shoulder both times, making it three times in two years that’s happened. Wood gave them 10 quality starts in his first 16, but the Reds were frustrated and shipped him to Triple-A for two months anyway. A couple of weeks later, Volquez followed him to Louisville, sporting an unintentional walk rate of 5.6 BB/9 while allowing 15 homers in 85 innings pitches.

That is not to say the picture’s entirely bleak. Bailey managed to notch quality starts in more than half his turns (13 out of 22), a career first for him. When healthy, Cueto is the ace they need to contend again. Leake turned in a fine sophomore season.

However, the FIPs for Bailey (4.02) and Leake (4.19) don’t suggest they’ll join Cueto at the front of the rotation. That’s also not any better than Wood (4.03 FIP), if the Reds are willing to give him a second chance. Volquez might not get even that; his name shows up in trade rumors, and despite the poor performance arbitration is only going to make him more expensive to employ the next two seasons.

Sorting out the Reds’ rotation to pick their best five guys is going to require judgment. But you could have said that about them last year too, only to see them wind up resurrecting Dontrelle Willis. Whatever the basis on which those choices are made -- scouting, stats or both -- the challenge for Jocketty this winter will be picking his ponies and then having Dusty watch them run. That sounds easy enough, but the problem is whether or not you can reasonably hope for the Reds to pick the right guys.

Take the Reds’ recent big-picture decisions, and the most recent developments. Last winter, Jocketty gave Bronson Arroyo a three-year, $35 million extension to be the rotation’s veteran workhorse. They were rewarded with a 46-homer season, the second-highest single-season tally in National League history. Sure, it’s clever to defer payments to lower the contract’s annual average value below $10 million per year, but it’s still a massive multi-year commitment to Bronson Arroyo, a nice mid-rotation innings-eater at the best of times. Unfortunately, the deal was to keep him around for his age-34 through age-36 seasons, which weren’t likely to be the best of times, and haven’t been.

Any hopes that the Reds might move Chapman back to the rotation any time soon are on hold after he came up with a sore shoulder in the Arizona Fall League. As a result, they scrapped plans to let him start in winter ball.

Cueto, Bailey and Chapman, all top young pitchers, all coming up sore-armed on Dusty Baker’s watch? Even if Baker is being more careful with young pitchers than he was with another talented trio in Chicago, we’ve certainly been here before.

And then there’s the Reds’ rumored interest in Jair Jurrjens of the Atlanta Braves. Jurrjens is also someone most statheads expect to see take a tumble in 2012, by as much as a full run given a 3.95 FIP to his 2.96 ERA. That’s assuming that the right knee that has shelved him three times in two years holds up, and that’s without getting to an additional pair of DL stints in the last two years for injuries to an oblique and a thigh.

On paper, adding another body to their rotation depth would seem like the last thing the Reds should be worrying about -- they already have seven guys for five slots, and they’re struggling to identify which ones are their real keepers. It certainly doesn't reflect well on their current crew, although teams willing to trade for any of the non-Arroyos wouldn't be hard to find. If Jurrjens is the solution, maybe it's the decision-making process that tells the Reds to go after him that is the problem.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The deadline is over. Admit it: You're kind of sad about that. Anyway, we now enter the really fun part of the season. Well, at least if your team is still in contention. Who made out the best? Everybody has an opinion, but ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski runs the numbers to see which acquisitions will have the most impact on the pennant races.

Other links!

• He's been lost among the big numbers from Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, and the surprise of Vance Worley, the RBIs of Ryan Howard and the acquisition of Hunter Pence, but Chase Utley has been quietly awesome for the Phillies, as Bill Baer writes.
• Stephanie Liscio writes about the Indians acquiring Ubaldo Jimenez and mentions an old report that Cleveland once went after Dan Haren, but balked at including top prospect Adam Miller. History will tell.
• John Franco and Paul Sporer of Pitt Plank look at the Pirates' acquisitions of Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee. They might not be huge upgrades, but they should make the Pirates much tougher against left-handed starters.
• Brien Jackson with a good take on heralded Yankees pitching prospect Manny Banuelos. The basic take: Banuelos still has a lot to prove at Double-A.
• Kevin Orris is OK with the Braves not acquiring a right-handed reliever.
• Jon Shields looks at the players the Mariners picked up. Personally, I like the haul for Bedard. I think there's a good chance that either Trayvon Robinson or Chih-Swien Chiang turns into a starting outfielder.
• Austin Swafford says the Astros' top 10 prospects list is a little sad.
• I just did a short photo gallery on the Astros' history. Earlier this year Austin listed the greatest home runs in Astros history.
• Should Bronson Arroyo still be in the Reds' rotation?
• Four questions to consider for the Rangers.

Other random stuff!

• Rob Neyer asks: Did Clint Hurdle blow three games last week? You know, we probably don't spend enough time dissecting managerial moves, because there's still a lot of stuff going on that doesn't make a lot of sense.
• If you grew up in the '80s, you'll remember the posters that the Costacos brothers of Seattle put out. Oh, you should have hung on to them as well.
• It's not baseball, but another reminder that the '80s were awesome.

Sorry, Cincinnati, your Reds are done. They're five games under .500, in fourth place, 6.5 games out of first. That's too much distance to make up and too many teams to climb over. The Brewers are eight games over .500; if they play .500 ball, your Reds would need to win 13 in a row just to catch them. And that doesn't even factor in the Cardinals or Pirates. So, yes, your season is over. A season of promise and hope has turned into the most disappointing in baseball.

The next step is obvious: trade catcher Ramon Hernandez to the Giants. Call up top prospect Devin Mesoraco, who is hitting .306/.379/.500 at Triple-A, give him some big league time, let him learn the ropes and get acclimated to catching a big league pitching staff.

I know Dusty Baker loves the vets. But take charge of your franchise. He's still running Bronson Arroyo out there every fifth day. Do you realize he's been one of the least valuable players in baseball this year? He has a 5.59 ERA and has allowed 30 home runs in just 127.1 innings. Only one pitcher has ever allowed that many home runs while pitching so few innings -- Andy Benes allowed 30 in 122 innings for the Cardinals in 2001. Yes, your home ballpark is a bit of a bandbox, but Benes was pitching against juiced-up sluggers with needles hanging out of their thighs. Arroyo is in the new pitcher-friendly environment of 2011.

Yes, I know he's signed for $12 million next year and $11.5 million in 2013. That's why you don't give out expensive contract extensions to starters who average 5.0 strikeout per nine innings, like Arroyo did in 2010. You're stuck with him, but that doesn't mean you have to keep using him.

Anyway, the Giants need a catcher. Get a couple of B-level prospects or maybe one of the Giants' relievers. It's a perfect fit. For the Giants, they've gone all-in. They need another bat in the lineup, however, and Hernandez is hitting .307/.366/.502. This lineup wouldn't be so bad:

Andres Torres, CF
Jeff Keppinger, 2B
Carlos Beltran, RF
Pablo Sandoval, 3B
Nate Schierholtz/Pat Burrell, LF
Ramon Hernandez, C
Brandon Belt, 1B (for the love of God, please bench Aubrey Huff)
Jamey Carroll, SS
Pitcher

Yes, San Francisco, pick up Jamey Carroll as well. Go for it. Make that push. Back-to-back titles would be pretty sweet, no?

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Considering that the Cincinnati Reds play in a division they won by five games in 2010 and in which the other contenders have been hit with injuries to key players in 2011, you might have expected them to be sitting in a very comfortable position by now. Instead, after a 5-4 loss in Milwaukee on Thursday, they’re on the wrong side of .500 at 44-45 and trail the Brewers, Cardinals and even the Pirates in the NL Central. They’re 7-12 since a three-game sweep of the Dodgers in mid-June. For all that, they’re still just three games out of first place. Can the ship be righted, and how?

The team took a stab at dealing with its two most obvious problems on Thursday. They demoted Edinson Volquez, who had been walking nearly six men per game on the way to a 5.93 ERA and may be replaced by an apparently resurgent Dontrelle Willis. And they gave a long-overdue promotion to shortstop prospect Zack Cozart, who had been hitting .310/.357/.467 and will be given an opportunity to replace the shockingly poor production they had been receiving from Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria, who have combined to produce -0.1 wins above replacement (WAR), according to FanGraphs.com. Both moves represent huge steps in the right direction.

Those weren’t the only problems this team has, however. Bronson Arroyo has arguably struggled even more than Volquez, and his veteran status and hefty price tag running through 2013 make him a harder burden to shake off than Volquez. Travis Wood has been similarly ineffective if you go by his 5.11 ERA, though his 4.11 FIP suggests he’s been mostly unlucky. All told, for all the preseason talk about the great starting rotation depth, and despite a great first 11 starts from Johnny Cueto, Reds starters entered Thursday with a 4.60 ERA, second-to-last in the National League, and tied for last with just 3.5 FanGraphs WAR.

Outside of that little rotation issue, though -- and that’s a big one -- it’s hard to pinpoint areas in which this team has gone wrong. They’ve gone with an unorthodox sort of three-headed-monster approach in left field, dividing the position among Chris Heisey, Jonny Gomes and Fred Lewis. Yet all three have been effective, with Gomes and Heisey providing good offense and Lewis good defense, combining for 3.1 WAR. It’s starting to look like Scott Rolen’s bat has fallen off the old-age table, but he appears to be making up for it with his still-excellent defense, and his oft-used substitute Miguel Cairo (against all odds) has been solid with both bat and glove. At catcher, first, second, center and right, the Reds have received well above-average play (at least), and the bullpen has been solid. One would think a team with this lineup would be better than 44-45, even with a shaky rotation.

And in at least one sense, they have been better than that. Coming into Thursday, the Reds’ “Pythagorean record” -- the record suggested by their run differential -- was 47-41, which would have them tied for first place in the division. A negative disparity between a team’s Pythagorean and actual record sometimes suggests a managerial failing of some kind, but I don’t see a lot of evidence of that here. Dusty Baker certainly has his flaws (ones we in the sabermetric community are all too aware of), and sometimes makes some interesting decisions regarding the use of his bullpen and other personnel, and it’s possible that his decision-making has lost some close games. There’s no hard data to back that up, though, and anecdotally, most Reds fans I know seem to think that Dusty is doing a better job of in-game managing this year than he has in the past.

Rather, the discrepancy seems to be the result of a lack of “clutch hitting” by the Reds; the team’s .259/.330/.403 overall line (through Wednesday) slips to .237/.313/.343 in “late and close” situations, suggesting that they’re finding it easier to score runs when ahead or trailing by a bunch than they are late in a tight game, when each individual run matters a bit more. The team’s overall hitting line is above the NL average, but its “late and close” line is slightly below average across the board. (The NL “late and close” average entering Thursday was .244/.322/.359.)

So the Reds’ problems, after dealing with their shortstops and Volquez, seem to boil down to Arroyo, Wood and clutch hitting. The last bit can’t be dealt with; study has shown that “clutch,” to the extent it exists, is impossible to separate from simple dumb luck, good or bad. Wood should be fine for essentially the same reason: He has really struggled with runners in scoring position, and unless the team has some reason to believe he has problems pitching out of the stretch or gets more rattled than most do with men on second or third, those numbers should get better. Arroyo on the other hand has been legitimately struggling for two months, and is a real worry; if they’re willing to recognize his huge contract as a sunk cost and move him to a long-relief role (or off the team entirely), and in favor of Sam LeCure (if healthy) a possible acquisition on the trade market, that could really improve the team going forward.

For the most part, though, the Reds have done almost everything they can by finally calling up Cozart and demoting Volquez. Most else is out of their control: The hits should get more timely, and the non-Arroyo pitching should get better. Even the hitters who are doing well in 2011 -- Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce, in particular -- have shown themselves capable of doing even better. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see one or more of them get incredibly hot and carry the team over the second half.

Looking up at three other teams at the All-Star break is never a good place to be, but the Reds seem about as well-positioned to make a second-half run as a fourth-place team could get.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Bill Parker writes for The Platoon Advantage. Follow him on Twitter: @Bill_TPA.

The Cincinnati Reds have one of the deepest starting rotations in the National League -- seven-deep, in fact -- and of the seven, six of them are ages 23-27.

Edinson Volquez has shown flashes of being a potential No. 1 starter; Johnny Cueto already is a solid No. 2; Bronson Arroyo just wins 15 games and pitches 200 innings every year; Travis Wood has pinpoint control; Homer Bailey has the raw stuff to potentially become a No. 1; and Mike Leake and Sam LeCure are solid back-of-the-rotation arms. With one of baseball's best defensive teams behind this young, strong rotation, the Reds are built to be a World Series-contending team over the next several seasons.

Rotation depth should give them an advantage over the 162-game schedule. But the question remains: Can they compete in the playoffs? While the Phillies, Giants, Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, Braves and Cardinals all have proven No. 1 starters, the Reds are hoping that either Volquez, Cueto or Bailey will develop into one. The hope is that they can compete with the likes of Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Josh Johnson come October in Games 1 and 7 of important playoff matchups. The potential is there.

Here is a breakdown of their starting rotation:

Volquez, 27, has an overpowering fastball at times (90-96 mph) with an excellent changeup, an effective curveball and a hard slider. He has quick arm speed out front with whip-like action. When he’s healthy, he’s shown he can be a strike thrower who goes right at hitters and pounds the zone. In fact, if you want to take a snapshot of his best pitching, it was the first half of 2008, when he went 12-3 with a 2.29 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.24. Some even nicknamed him "Mini-Pedro" for that short period of success. Since then, he’s had Tommy John surgery and a positive test for PEDs. The reality is he can’t control the baseball like he used to. In his past start, he walked five of the first 12 batters he faced. His WHIP is 1.6, he’s averaging seven walks per nine innings, and leads the league in walks with 33. Although he has the potential to be a No. 1, he looks more like a No. 3 starter, and the Reds are hoping the command and control come back sooner rather than later. The raw stuff is top-of-the-rotation talent.

Former Reds scout Johnny Almaraz recruited Cueto as an international signee . Cueto, 24, has a smaller frame with a powerful fastball in the 90-95 mph range. He’s aggressive and commands the fastball well. This has allowed him to realize getting outs on the ground can be as effective as strikeouts. He has a hard, tight slider that is deceptive enough to get him punch-outs out of the zone against even some of the league's better hitters. He has a plus changeup at times, and the cutter is also effective, especially against left-handed hitters. The Reds signed Cueto to a four-year, $27 million deal before spring training. Imagine the alarm when his shoulder started barking. But thanks to one of the best medical teams in baseball, led by Dr. Timothy Kremchek, they quickly put him on a strengthening program that has him healthy again and back on track to being a solid No. 2 starter.

Arroyo, 34, is one of the best No. 3 starters in baseball. He has won at least 15 games three years in a row and has pitched at least 200 innings every season since 2005. He’ll throw between 85-90 mph, with a big, slow curveball, an average slider with tilt, and an effective cutter. He varies speeds, plains, zones and really knows how to pitch. He’ll try to get you to chase, and he’ll try to fool you. He wins. He pitches innings. He has tremendous make-up and character and is the leader of this rotation. He is a straight shooter and a rock 'n' roller, with the hairdo, swagger and charm. Every fifth day the Reds can count on him keeping them in the game with a chance to win.

Wood, 24, is the lone lefty in the rotation. He is a competitor and a good athlete. His sinking fastball is mostly 88-91 mph with pinpoint control. He has an excellent changeup, a quality cutter, and his breaking balls -- a slider and a curveball -- have developed enough to be effective. His balls have late movement, and he keeps them out of the middle of the plate. He spent time in the offseason with Cliff Lee, working out and talking about pitching. Both Arroyo and catcher Ryan Hanigan rave about Wood and his ability to get outs with less stuff. Wood is a solid lefty who will always be referred to as a real estate pitcher, meaning location, location, location ... and late life.

Bailey, 25, has the highest ceiling of any of the Reds' starting pitchers. Like Cueto, Wood and Lecure, he was cross-checked and recommended by former Reds scout Jimmy Gonzales, who felt strongly Bailey would be a 15-18 game winner someday. Bailey had some minor injuries early in his career and used to be just a thrower. His stubbornness and inability to make adjustments due to immaturity frustrated the Reds' brass for years. However, last September, the maturity came, the light bulb went on, and Bailey is now ready to take off. His fastball is 90-96 mph with hard, arm-side sink. The pitch is so overpowering that at times he can throw it down the middle of the plate, tell the hitter it’s coming, and they still can’t catch up. When he was drafted, he had a big curveball that was his primary breaking pitch, but now his first breaking ball is a tight slider or cutter that is a lot more effective. His secondary offspeed pitch has improved dramatically; everything moves. He is a fierce competitor who is really coming into his own as he has learned how to pitch.

Leake, 23, the right-hander out of Arizona State, became the first player in a decade in the past season to make the major leagues without spending time in the minors. He rewarded the Reds in the first half by going 6-1 with a 3.53 ERA in 17 starts with a WHIP of 1.3 and was a ground-ball machine. Leake is not overpowering, but he used both sides of the plate and kept the ball down. The second half, however, was a different story once the innings racked up. Leake is now throwing out of the bullpen, but if there is an injury, he’ll be ready to step back into the rotation. At the back end of the rotation, he is certainly capable of winning 10-12 games.

LeCure, 27, went to school at the University of Texas and was academically ineligible to pitch in 2005. That didn’t stop the Reds from evaluating and drafting him after watching his bullpen sessions. His fastball can get up to 88-91 mph, and he commands his slider and changeup. LeCure is a tough kid with exceptional make-up, an over-achiever who can win at the back end of any rotation. He provides more valuable depth for the Reds.

The bottom line is that this is a really talented and deep rotation. If Volquez, Cueto and/or Bailey arrive at their fullest potential, the Reds may be celebrating at the White House and not just at Fountain Square in the Queen City or at one of Jeff Ruby’s famous downtown restaurants.

Thanks for reading, and I appreciate your comments, recommendations and retweets. You can follow me on Twitter: @JimBowdenESPNxm.

OK, it's time to settle one of the most important debates of the 2011 season: Who has the best hair?

Beards seem to be the in thing, as I haven't seen this many beards since Glenn Hubbard, Bruce Sutter and Gene Garber played for the '85 Braves. I've yet to see another player attempt the Brian Wilson dye job, however. I've selected several of the expected candidates (scroll down for all the photos before voting in the poll). Let me know who I've missed in the comments section and we'll revisit the topic with a future post.

The candidates:

Bronson Arroyo, Reds: In the past, Arroyo has worn cornrows, gone short, sported a goatee, and grown long, wavy locks. This season he has a straight mullet that makes him look like he should be lacing up his skates for the 1985 Edmonton Oilers.

John Axford and Casey McGehee: I'm giving these teammates a dual entry nod, kind of like a Kentucky Derby trainer having two horses. Axford wears the 1890s-style mustache and soul patch while McGee has gone with the mountain man beard/shaved head combo.

Manny Ramirez: He didn't cut the dreadlocks over the winter. All that hair must cut down on his bat speed. No wonder he's not as good as he used to be.

Jayson Werth: He's back with the beard and long flowing locks.

Brian Wilson: Can he be dethroned? Maybe you're tired of the beard schtick? Should Tim Lincecum have been in the poll? Does Joba Chamberlain have potential?

In 2010, the NL Central finished the season with only six of the top 40 starting pitchers based on ERA. Three of those pitchers belonged to one team, the St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia.) The other three were Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez (Houston Astros) and Johnny Cueto (Reds). This means the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers were without a starter in the top 40 ERA’s in the league by the end of 2010. The potential was there, but it was never realized. Fast forward to 2011 …

The Brewers made the first move this offseason when they picked up Zack Greinke in a trade with the Royals. They gave up little for what will be their staff ace. FanGraphs projects Greinke’s 2011 stats to be about 14-15 wins and an ERA in the mid 3.00’s. The Brew Crew did not stop there, acquiring Shawn Marcum, who cobbled together a nice 2010 for Toronto in the tough AL East after missing all of 2009. These two additions, along with future Cy Young candidate Yovani Gallardo make the Brewers a contender for the NL Central crown in 2011.

The Cubs’ offseason answer to their pitching staff questions came in a trade with Tampa Bay. Matt Garza was acquired in exchange for a slew of prospects. While the big question is how Garza will fair in Wrigley, it goes without saying he is an upgrade, and makes a fine middle-of-the-rotation addition. FanGraphs projects something like 11 wins and a high 3.00 to low 4.00 ERA. He gives the Cubs a very solid top three along with Ryan Dempster and a “newly cured” Carlos Zambrano. What if Randy Wells can get his 2009 form back? Any Cubs fan can tell you that 2010’s failure came from a lack of offense. If this staff gets even a hint of support, the NL Central is well within reach.

We can’t discuss the Cubs without touching on the Cardinals. Year in and year out the Cardinals seem to have pitching, or at least starting pitching. Yes, Wainwright is gone for the 2011 season, and while this is a big blow, I don’t see it being the end of their 2011 season. Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan are unbelievable at squeezing water from a stone. Duncan got production from Todd Wellemeyer for crying out loud. Every year the duo of La Russa and Duncan seems to pull a starting pitcher out of a hat. I am sure somebody will fall in place to pick up at least some of the wreckage left behind by Wainwright’s injury. They still have Carpenter and Garcia to lean on. Let’s also not forget the sinkerball pitcher, Jake Westbrook, who I am sure Duncan will turn into a Cy Young candidate before long. Oh yes, the Cardinals are still in the hunt … even when they lose their best pitcher.

The sneakiest staff might be Houston's. Rodriguez and Myers will once again anchor this staff. Don’t count out J.A. Happ, as he fit in nicely coming over from the Phillies in a trade last season. While I don’t see the Astros contending this year, mostly because of their offensive woes and bullpen, these three guys make for a nice base to a starting staff. Rodriguez and Myers were both in the top 40 ERA’s for starting pitchers last year, and Happ has the stuff to be included in that conversation someday, too.

Alongside these teams sit the Cincinnati Reds. Youth would be the operative word here. The potential in this starting rotation is enormous for 2011 and beyond. Yes, Bronson Arroyo is 33, but after that you have Edison Volquez (28), Cueto (25) , Homer Bailey (25) and a fifth starter in Travis Wood (24) or Mike Leake (23). There is also the tease that Cuban fireballer Aroldis Chapman (22) might one day become a starter. With the exception of Chapman and possibly Wood, all of these pitchers have seen significant success at the major league level in a starting role. The only thing keeping the Reds from a return to the playoffs is the fact that every team in the division upgraded with exception to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The NL Central has always had a few good pitchers sprinkled about its rosters. What’s new to the past decade is the depth of each team’s starting staff, not to mention the potential for more in the future. While the Astros, and more so the Pirates, have some ground to make up in this category, the remaining four teams are finding strength and depth from their starters.

Chet West writes for The View From the Bleachers blog, which is part of the SweetSpot network.

From Crashburn Alley's Division Series preview, starting-pitchers edition, this snippet about Bronson Arroyo:

A pitcher who strikes out hitters as infrequently as Jamie Moyer shouldn’t finish a season with a 3.88 ERA, but Arroyo did. The charade can’t last forever, however. Arroyo has a chasm in his performance between right-handed and left-handed hitters: 210 points of OPS to be exact. The Phillies’ lefty-heavy lineup will attempt to fix what’s wrong by making Arroyo’s results match his performance.

I've gotten into the habit of saying the Reds have "a puncher's chance" against the Phillies, because the Reds 1) have six guys who hit at least 18 home runs this season, and 2) the entire Division Series will be played in ballparks that are friendly to home-run hitters. If the Reds can just hit a few extra (long) fly balls, they could put some runs on the board against Philadelphia's fantastic starting pitchers.

But that won't matter if Cincinnati's starters can't hold the Phillies down some. And given Arroyo's issues against left-handed hitters -- think about Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, plus switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino -- this formula does seem problematic for the Reds.

Oh, those Cardinals. Always trying to stir something up ...

After Bronson Arroyo held the St. Louis Cardinals to one run in a 6-1 Reds win Wednesday night, a Cardinals coach accused the pitcher of cheating.

Cardinals starter John Smoltz said he had trouble gripping the ball. He tossed several out of play even before trying to pitch with them. Smoltz walked five batters, two more than in all the games played since he joined the Cardinals earlier this year.

--snip--

Balls are supposed to be rubbed with a special mud before each game, a job usually performed by the home team's clubhouse crew.

"They were fine for me," Arroyo said. "They don't mud them up as much here as they do at other places. It was a cool night, and it's hard to hold on sometimes."

In an interview with the Post-Dispatch, Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan said, "I'm sure he had pine tar on his cap. He didn't have any problem getting a grip. Balls like that can generate a lot more movement than a slick ball that hasn't been rubbed up."

--snip--

For his part, Arroyo denied the allegations in a story on the Reds' Web site.

"The reason he's saying that is because I've been using this hat all season," Arroyo said. "That's what happens from playing games in every other park, where there is so much mud on the balls. That black stuff comes off on my fingers every day."

This is the Kenny Rogers thing all over again, right? Gosh, it seems like just yesterday, but it was almost three years ago that these same Cardinals suggested that Rogers was benefitting from a bit of pine tar on his hand in Game 2 of the World Series. Rogers later said it was just a clump of dirt on his hand, and -- whatever it was -- he pitched quite nicely after washing it off.

This time it's Bronson Arroyo, and the supposed foreign substance is spotted on the bill of his cap rather than the base of his pitching thumb.

I saw a video clip of Arroyo today, explaining himself and displaying his cap. He seems like a straight shooter and I believe him. If Dave Duncan doesn't want pitchers running out with brown spots on their caps, then he should lobby his general manager to lobby for a rule prohibiting dirty baseball caps. That'd be fine with me (though I'd prefer they go after the gunky batting helmets first).

Another thing Duncan might lobby for: uniform rubbing. In the old days -- actually, just a few years ago, I think -- the umpiring crew took care of the baseballs, with the junior arbiter usually stuck with the job. But that practice died, presumably because the umpires hated the job, particularly with so many dozens of baseballs being used in every game. When the job is left to the home team, though, you're bound to wind up with a visiting team complaining when the balls don't seem up to snuff.

There's no obvious solution, other than Major League Baseball paying someone to do the dirty work. Quick, call the Commissioner's office ...

Bob Nightengale on the World's Last Honest Pitcher:

... Bronson Arroyo reaches into his locker, pulls down a clear cellophane bag and slowly opens it.

He shakes out the contents like a kid on Halloween night. There are different-colored pills, powders, liquids, proteins, caffeine concentrates and ginseng, products such as creatine, Triflex and xelR8 found at local vitamin stores. Most of the products have not been approved by Major League Baseball for use by players, Arroyo says. Some of the items have the potential to trigger a positive test under baseball's performance-enhancing drug policy. Arroyo takes them anyway.

"I have a lot of guys in (the locker room) who think I'm out of (my) mind because I'm taking a lot of things not on the (MLB-approved) list," Arroyo says. "I take 10 to 12 different things a day, and on the days I pitch, there's four more things. There's a caffeine drink I take from a company that (former teammate) Curt Schilling introduced me to in '05. I take some Korean ginseng and a few other proteins out there that are not certified. But I haven't failed any tests, so I figured I'm good."

Arroyo goes on at length, and is refreshingly forthright. He used to use androstenedione (before it was banned). He used to use the amphetamines (before they were banned). He says he never (knowingly) took steroids (but doesn't really explain why not). I'm not saying that Arroyo is a choirboy, but when I read the following I can't help but admire his willingness to question what he's told ...

"You think this country really cares about what ballplayers put in their bodies?" Arroyo asks. "If we really care, why are we pumping Coca-Cola in every kid's mouth, and McDonald's, and Burger King and KFC? That (stuff) is killing people.

"If you want to say the union continued to knowingly barter in bad faith for us to have steroids and not have a policy, hey, they're not at fault for anything. The union is there to protect our best interest.

"Whether you think it's right or wrong, the union is there to make sure we look good in the media, make as much money as we possibly can and continue our career as long as we possibly can."

Maybe there are players who are ashamed of playing in the steroid era, Arroyo says, but he is proud. He made it. He survived.

"I don't regret a thing," Arroyo says. "Neither should anyone else."

You want to pillory Arroyo? Go ahead. I sort of admire the guy. I just have one question, though ... That clear cellophane bag with all the pills and powders and various other non-approved products? They don't seem to be working so well. Arroyo's walk rate this season is the highest it's been since 2002; his strikeout rate is the lowest it's been since 2005. He's going to give up more home runs than he's ever given up before, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio borders unacceptability.

Arroyo believes that he should do whatever necessary, and that he is surrounded by hypocrites. I don't know that he's wrong. But whatever he's doing with the drugs now, isn't working. I don't think Arroyo's a bad guy, or a stupid guy. He's just sort of a lousy pitcher.