SweetSpot: Buster Posey

A year later, Buster Posey's back in action

May, 26, 2012
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Exactly one year ago, Buster Posey went from sure thing to question mark. It wasn’t because of anything he failed to do, it wasn’t because he hadn’t fulfilled every expectation for his greatness. If anything, it was a matter of professional hazard: He was a catcher protecting home plate, and when Scott Cousins took his shot at scoring, Posey was there, trying to make a play. Instants later, Posey went from the best young catcher in baseball to a young man in agony at home plate.

Giants fans were understandably devastated. Posey was the best thing to happen to catcher offense since Mike Piazza. His rookie-season performance -- hitting .305/.357/.505 with 18 home runs, gunning down 29 percent of stolen-base attempts and winning the National League Rookie of the Year award -- created a heightened expectation of what was to come. He was the new bright light on a defending champion; a first-rounder who hadn’t just lived up to his promise, he’d taken the Giants to the promised land. And then, one play at the plate later, Posey was dealing with a case of career, interrupted.

Now, one year later, we can say that interruption, however avoidable, however unfortunate, has cost Posey little in terms of what he’s able to do. One year later, and he’s hitting like the same kid catcher who provided so much joy in 2010: .297/.364/.473, not very different from the .297/.366/.479 line that ESPN Insider’s Dan Szymborski projected for him via ZiPS before the season. Posey is fourth in OPS+ and OBP among regular receivers, sixth in slugging, seventh in homers. Quibblers might note that Posey is throwing out just 22 percent of stolen-base attempts, but when people are testing you scarcely more often (0.77 attempts per nine innings) than they do Yadier Molina (0.69), that’s a sign of respect of what Posey is to this day: A big-league catcher.

Losing sight of Posey’s comeback might be easy, especially after the Dodgers’ torrid start. The Giants have had more than their share of problems beyond that: Brian Wilson’s broken beyond repair this season and Pablo Sandoval’s out with a broken hand for a few more weeks yet. Tim Lincecum has delivered just one quality start in 10 this season, and took another beating at the hands of the Fish Friday night. The long-standing Aubrey Huff versus Brandon Belt debate over who should be playing first base has been fairly pointless with both men’s bats missing in action.

But in the big picture, Posey is just the leading example of how much is going right for the Giants already. He joins Melky Cabrera’s crazy-good start, and Posey’s handling a pitching staff that, outside of Lincecum’s woes, may very well be the league’s best. In the two wild-card-team era, that’s something any skipper could work and win with.

You can consider me an interested party as an observer to Posey’s misfortune because, this time last year, I’d selected Posey in ESPN’s franchise player draft. I’d picked Posey before he suffered the injury, but the horror of this play at the plate came before we went to press. In an act of generosity, I was asked if I wanted to change my pick from Posey, taking anyone left on the board. I thought about it … and I said no.

I said no because I believed, or because I wanted to believe, not just in Posey’s promise of what could be, of what was supposed to be, but because I wanted to believe that he’d be back, that he would be every bit the player he’d already been and was always meant to be. I believed because I’m a fan, and in the way that every fan wants to see players play, I wanted to see Posey play again. Call it faith if you want, faith in a player, faith in the miracle of modern orthopedics, but I believed Posey would be back.

It wasn’t simple fandom on my part, and I don’t think any of us kid ourselves over the amount of work that went into his getting back on the field. Frankly, as a Northern Californian and an A’s fan in the late ’70s, I grew up hating the Giants, resenting the affection they received from a fawning press still buzzing off a contact high from Willie Mays, where Charley Finley’s franchise received -- and deserved -- derision. No, if I was a fan of anything, it was Posey’s game, a fan of what baseball deserves, of what he deserves.

So, seeing Posey take the field in Florida to face the Marlins on this unhappy anniversary, you can consider me guilty of a contact high of my own, one that comes from getting to say that this is one of those happy non-news stories: That Buster Posey remains the player he’s supposed to be. And whether you root for the Giants or against them, that’s a beautiful thing, all by itself.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Hunter PenceJeff Curry/US PresswireHunter Pence does a little dance with Shane Victorino, but nobody was the worse for wear.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Are we in a golden age for catchers? In the wake of the Carlos Santana contract extension, there was some debate on where he ranks among the game's elite backstops. My colleague Eric Karabell called him the best catcher in the game.

I'm not sure Santana is in that class yet, although his power/walks combo could make him one of the most valuable players in the game even if he hits just .260. What makes that declaration difficult to make is we have so many good catchers right now. In 2011, we had six that posted a 3.5 WAR or higher (via Baseball-Reference.com):

Mike Napoli, Rangers: 5.5
Alex Avila, Tigers: 5.4
Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks: 4.5
Matt Wieters, Orioles: 4.0
Yadier Molina, Cardinals: 3.9
Carlos Santana, Indians: 3.9

And that list doesn't include six-time All-Star Brian McCann (2.5 WAR), Nationals rookie Wilson Ramos (2.5) or Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, who battled injuries. On top of that are promising Royals youngster Salvador Perez, who will miss the first half of the season with a torn meniscus in his knee; plus Reds rookie Devin Mesoraco and Blue Jays prospect Travis d'Arnaud, two of Keith Law's top 10 prospects entering the season. What's even more remarkable about this list is Napoli is the oldest of the 13 at 30 years old.

Is this much catching talent unusual? I looked at all seasons since 1969 with at least six catchers who posted 3.5 WAR or better.


I think there's an argument that we have the most catching depth in the majors since the late '70s. Looking at the 1977 guys, Ferguson, Tenace and Munson were the oldest of the group, each 30. Ferguson was a guy who had been a backup catcher/outfielder with the Dodgers but got a chance to play more for the Astros in '77. He was never a full-time player again. Munson declined precipitously in 1978 before his early death in 1979. Johnny Bench was only 29 but only had a couple more good seasons left. Of the younger guys, Gary Carter, of course, developed into a Hall of Famer catcher, but the Mets' John Stearns (25 years old) and Butch Wynegar (21) never really grew from here. Stearns battled injuries and Wynegar's skill set never advanced beyond a guy who would take some walks. (Jon Shepherd of the Camden Depot blog looked at the number of 125 OPS+ seasons by catchers by decade.)

Still, you have an impressive group for 1977: Three Hall of Famers in Carlton Fisk, Bench and Carter; a borderline Hall of Famer in Ted Simmons; Gene Tenace, a Santana-like player who drew a ton of walks and hit home runs; a former MVP winner in Munson; and a longtime defensive ace in Jim Sundberg, comparable to Yadier Molina.

Unless Mauer bounces back or one of the younger guys turns into a superstar, our current crop may lack the top-end caliber of Fisk, Bench and Carter. But the depth is phenomenal, and the youth means these guys are going to around a long time. Enjoy them. It's a special group.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

SweetSpot's NL players to see

February, 17, 2012
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First the SweetSpot network took on the AL teams. Now they look at the NL. Which players are bloggers most excited to watch this season, and why?

Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton
Diamondbacks
Upton was finally healthy for an entire season in 2011, and met all the lofty expectations placed on him in the second year of a six-year, $51.25 million contract signed when he was 22. He set career highs in homers (31), RBI (88) and stolen bases (21, caught nine times), while compiling a .289/.369/.529 line. Through their age-23 season, there have been only four others to match Upton’s 91 homers, 62 stolen bases and 119 OPS+: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, Ken Griffey Jr. and Orlando Cepeda. Pretty elite company, and Upton still has time to mature as a player and team leader. I’m looking forward to watching this multifaceted young man do his thing again in 2012. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit

Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward
Braves
A healthy Heyward has to be the player Braves fans are most excited to see this season. Through injuries, bad habits developed while playing injured and benchings, just about everything that could have gone wrong for such a talent did go wrong last year. Despite all of that, Heyward never hung his head or complained and actually managed to produce slightly above-league-average value in right field. Heyward has reportedly straightened his swing out this offseason and has really worked hard to get his game back on track. If Heyward can get a little more elevation on his swing, while maintaining the other aspects of his rookie performance, Braves fans could once again witness a once-in-a-generation talent leading the team to a successful season. -- Franklin Rabon, Capitol Avenue Club

Chicago Cubs: Travis Wood
Cubs
In 2010, Wood made his big league debut for the Reds in an outing against the Cubs. He was brought in this offseason as part of the deal that sent Sean Marshall packing. For some, that was a disappointment considering Wood’s ERA last year was 4.84, but if we look beyond that we see that Wood posted a FIP ERA of 4.06, and Bill James projects him for an ERA of 3.75 in 2012. Also factor in that Great American Ballpark is a tough place to pitch; Wood had a 5.30 in the Gap vs. 3.58 on the road. Wrigley is not the hitters’ park we’ve all been told it is, primarily due to the wind blowing in often early in the year. The move from Cincinnati should do a lot toward boosting Wood’s production and confidence. -- Joe Aiello, View From the Bleachers

Cincinnati Reds: Mat Latos
Reds
Anticipation is building steadily for Latos' debut in a Cincinnati uniform. At 24 years of age and with a couple of excellent seasons already under his belt, the sky is the limit for him. For Reds fans, there is the hope that the club will have a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation for the first time in a couple of decades. Yes, there is reason for legitimate excitement in the Queen City. -- Chad Dotson, Redleg Nation

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki
Rockies
It’s a debate in my mind between Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Both have tremendous gloves, bats and arms. Tulo trained this offseason with Jason Giambi in Las Vegas, and one could extrapolate some motivation from Dan O'Dowd's offseason acquisitions and trades. (O'Dowd believes the team needs leaders and better clubhouse guys, so what does that say about Tulo who plays the most important position on the field, is signed through 2020 and the face of the franchise?). What will Tulo do this year? I think 30 homers, Gold Glove-level defense and solidifying his place as the best player in baseball is a sure bet. Are the playoffs a sure bet for the Rockies? MVP for Tulo? I can't wait to see! -- Travis Lay, Blake Street Bulletin

Houston Astros: Jordan Lyles
Astros
With all of the changes, everyone seems to have forgotten that Lyles was recently the Astros’ top prospect. How quickly a young player that showed real promise last year has become overlooked in Houston. He's only 21 years old and had a number of very promising starts last year, posting a fair 4.41 ERA through July before running out of gas and getting shelled in August and September. He clearly needs to continue to build his stamina and strengthen himself to last the entire season. I'm interested to see how he continues to progress and if we can see him grow into the kind of player that can withstand the rigors of an entire major league season. I don't know how the Astros faithful have forgotten about Lyles so fast, but I think they'll be quickly and pleasantly reminded why he was considered a top prospect. -- Austin Swafford, Austin’s Astros 290 Blog

Los Angeles Dodgers: Kemp and Kershaw
Dodgers
Heaven knows it's hard not to be excited about the return of Juan Uribe or the potential of having Juan Rivera for a full season. But even so, there's a small, small part of me that is intrigued by these fellas named Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. They made a bit of an impression last year, and I can't say I'm not going to be, well ... OK, hanging on their every swing and pitch. But to avoid being too reliant on last year's stars, the new Dodger Roadrunner, Dee Gordon, will also be an exciting player to watch. -- Jon Weisman, Dodger Thoughts

Miami Marlins: Logan Morrison
Marlins
The player I'm truly most excited to see don a Marlins uniform this season is Logan Morrison. Following a splendid sophomore season in 2011, Morrison enters the new season as one of the game's top outfielders in the National League. With a solid approach and some power, a full season from Morrison could result in at least five additional wins for the Fish -- assuming Morrison can remain healthy. -- David Gershman, Marlins Daily

Milwaukee Brewers: Zack Greinke
Brewers
Last season, the Brewers didn't even get to see their prized acquisition participate in spring training, as Greinke broke a rib playing pickup basketball and missed all of spring and the first month of the season. This season, no basketball for the former Cy Young award winner. He'll be there through spring training and Brewer fans hope to avoid the slow start he suffered through last season. Greinke posted just a 5.63 ERA despite an 80:12 K:BB ratio in May and June last season (mostly thanks to eight home runs) before calming down in the second half. Greinke finished strong, posting a 2.80 ERA thanks to a .233/.293/.373 line allowed in July, August and September. -- Jack Moore, Disciples of Uecker

New York Mets: David Wright
Mets
After a winter of discontent for Mets fans, it’s hard to be excited about anyone in particular. The team is in desperate financial straits, is slashing payroll at record rates, and appears destined to finish in last place. Wright, the one player for whom I reserve excitement, may not even be on the team after July 31. Still, I’m highly anticipating his 2012 performance, because after two disappointing seasons I’m convinced that Wright has too much pride to have a third. For the first time in his career, the Mets are “his” team -- he’s the de facto leader, the man who sets the example for everyone else. Chances are, Wright is determined to have a career year, and will pound opposing pitching with a savage vengeance -- all in the name of leading the Mets to a less-than-90-loss season. -- Joe Janish, Mets Today

Philadelphia Phillies: Antonio Bastardo
Phillies
It was easy to be impressed by the sustained excellence of Atlanta's Jonny Venters last season, but Bastardo was quietly in the same neighborhood. Bastardo had a monster 2011 in which he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings and held opponents to a .524 OPS. If he can even approach his 2011 performance, Bastardo, along with Jonathan Papelbon and the Phillies' army of young guys who throw hard (Mike Stutes, Justin De Fratus, David Herndon and so on), gives the Phillies' bullpen the potential to be one of the best in the National League. -- Michael Baumann, Crashburn Alley

Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez
Pirates
While Andrew McCutchen remains eminently exciting, we have a firm grasp on his star-level capabilities. I’m more excited to see whether Alvarez can rebound from his terrible sophomore season and get back to where his debut left off. The Pirates have a chance at a bright future, but all of their elite prospects are several years away. If there is any hope to be a competitive team in 2012, Alvarez has to give McCutchen and Neil Walker some help offensively. He has barely played a full season of games (169), and there is still time for him to meet the expectations that come as a No. 2 overall pick. Hey, Alex Gordon finally did. -- Paul Sporer, Pitt Plank

St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Wainwright
Cardinals
Despite losing everyone's perennial favorite player to watch to free agency, the defending champs have several captivating players in 2012. Partly because fans haven't seen him in a year and partly because he throws one of the most entertaining curveballs in the game, Wainwright will be a sight for sore eyes as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. But the player with whom Wainwright will forever be linked in fans' memories, Carlos Beltran, also figures to be a pivotal and exciting addition to the post-Pujols roster. -- Matt Philip, Fungoes

San Diego Padres: Carlos Quentin
Padres
The acquisition of Quentin brings energy, excitement and more total bases (210 in 2011 with the White Sox) and home runs (24) than any Padres player had last year. The Padres now employ two hitting coaches -- a model just a few MLB teams use -- as Phil Plantier and Alonzo Powell help with the workload hitting instruction requires. Quentin plays hard and he will help change the dynamics in the clubhouse. With the Padres' deep farm system and strong pitching, Quentin just might be the player to add the much needed spark of power in the middle of the order. -- Anna McDonald

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey
Giants
I think I can speak for Giants fans everywhere when I say the player that I'm most excited to see play this season is Posey, and it's not even close. His injury in 2011 was a black mark on a year that we'd all like to forget. Beyond the numbers, Posey has quickly become the face of the Giants. He's young, energetic, talented and -- for us fans -- we hope healthy. Regardless of what happens, I'll be happy to see him back on the field in 2012. -- Chris Quick, Bay City Ball

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg
Nationals
How could it be anyone but Strasburg? When healthy, the most hyped pitching prospect in over a decade has delivered some fabulous pitching performances, and yet it feels like he is just scratching the surface of what he can do. He's as equally likely to blow guys away for a double-digit K performance as he is to shut a team down and let just two guys reach first over eight innings. He looked so good at the end of last year that the feeling is the only thing that can stop him in 2012 are the limits imposed by his own team to protect his recovering arm. -- Harper Gordek, Nationals Baseball

Position Production: Up the Middle

January, 29, 2012
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As we discussed in the first installment yesterday, performance at different positions invariably moves around a bit from year to year, but what about at the skill positions up the middle?

It seems as if not a winter goes by when you won’t wind up reading stories about the shortage of good catching (followed by the arrival of Koyie Hill on your team’s roster), or how landing people who can contribute at shortstop in the major leagues is difficult.

It’s sort of nonsense, because when you get right down to it, the standards for offense at catcher are stronger now than they were when we had just 26 or 28 teams. The amount of offense you can expect from your shortstops relative to league offense is higher now than it was in the glory days of the shortstop trinity of the ’90s, when Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez seemed to redefine offense from a position where Barry Larkin and Cal Ripken had been the standard.

But at the same time, we’re seeing players like Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia rank among the best players in baseball at second base, while Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp might have deserved their leagues’ respective MVP awards for their seasons in center.

First, let’s start with the performance levels from second base, shortstop, catcher and center field, from 1987-2011, using Clay Davenport’s Equivalent Average as our rough year-to-year guide. As noted before, .260 is the single-season baseline for the major leagues.

MLB Chart 2Christina Kahrl/ESPN.comUp the middle performance at the plate, 1987-2011
Straightaway, you can see how on one level the skill position versus corner position distinction comes across as a bit arbitrary, because it’s clear that center field isn’t like the other skill positions. Indeed, last year it ranked as the third-most productive position, behind first base and right field. With that in mind, what does this mean?

Center field is strong, but not that strong. Historically, center fielders have always delivered more at the plate than all of the other up-the-middle slots, and also more than third basemen have in the past 25 years, averaging .269 over that time to the .267 teams have gotten from the hot corner.

What’s unusual these days is that center fielders did more good on offense in 2011 than third basemen and left fielders, something fairly rare. The last time anything like that happened was in 1984 -- a year when center fielders led both leagues in homers, Tony Armas winning the AL crown outright with 43 bombs for Boston, while Dale Murphy tied Mike Schmidt with 36 in the NL. But that was also a season when both leagues boasted a half-dozen really good players in center.

However, the standards for excellence in center field were higher, much higher, in the late ’60s and early ’70s, and were of course higher in the ’50s, when Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Duke Snider and Larry Doby ruled the middle pasture. In 1954, center field was baseball’s premium offensive position, with a .287 EqA. So, not to knock Kemp or Ellsbury, or Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen, but as good as they are, this isn’t a new golden age for center fielders.

Second base has passed third base. I got into this a bit yesterday, and this might be considered a transient phenomenon, because it has been historically. However, do you really want to bet against Cano, Pedroia and Ian Kinsler? What if Jemile Weeks and Dustin Ackley break out as sophomores? What if Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson and Aaron Hill all have great bounce-back seasons? What if Rickie Weeks and Chase Utley were healthy all year? But that last point is part of the problem for sustained greatness at the keystone: It’s a physically demanding position, and being a great player for any length of time at second base requires a huge element of skill and a little bit of luck when it comes to staying healthy.

Now, if they all come through, then sure, we could see a multiyear run for second base to wind up as a bigger impact offensive position than third base. But I’ll believe it after we see it.

Who needs the Trinity at short? The offensive standard for short has been higher over the past decade than it ever was at any point since division play started back in 1969. Remember, that’s despite four rounds of expansion.

Looking back, what really made Jeter and A-Rod and Nomar stand out, as Larkin and Trammell or Ripken and Robin Yount had stood out, was that they were pretty much alone. That’s because there were superstars and then there was a lot of reason to love Omar Vizquel or Edgar Renteria, because things got ugly fast. You don’t really want to remember Neifi Perez, do you? Desi Relaford? I’ve probably brought up Rey Ordonez one time too often for polite conversation.

Today, you still have the lamentably necessary guys like Yuniesky Betancourt or Ronny Cedeno, or Alcides Escobar’s on-the-job education in the major leagues, but if these represent the worst, they’re better than the bottom of the heap that existed in the past. The floor has come up, and we still have the true superstars, like Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes. Let’s revel in their time, and also remember the Trinity, Ripken and Larkin as fondly as they deserve.

Catcher’s deep, still. Or, consider this another reason to not pardon the Angels for handicapping themselves with Jeff Mathis all these years, because there’s a difference between respecting a good receiver and ignoring his other responsibilities to playing baseball. (While we’re at it, there’s even less excuse for Drew Butera.)

Admittedly, being able to get Mike Napoli away from that kind of decision making and putting him in Texas is one way to improve matters. But keep in mind, with Victor Martinez moving out from behind the plate while Buster Posey and Joe Mauer missed big chunks of the season, catchers overall did a better job of contributing on offense in 2011 than they had in any year since 1997, so the overall depth behind the plate looks pretty good.

As you’ll notice from the chart, there’s been a lot of zigzagging around in catcher performance; it often drops behind shortstop, but sometimes tops it, and these days the two positions are running in tandem. Folks might still swear by Johnny Bench, but here again, we’ve got a lot of legitimate star-level talent out there; not just Posey and Mauer and Napoli, but also Brian McCann, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero, Carlos Santana and Yadier Molina. Then you can add in the durable catch-and-throw guys from the Jim Sundberg set, useful contributors at the plate and good receivers behind it: Carlos Ruiz, Matt Wieters, Russell Martin, and even Kurt Suzuki.

Put all of that together, and while we haven’t punched up this generation’s reputations with any special mystique, they can let their production be our guide. This may well be the deepest generation of catching talent in the history of the game, and there’s more coming, even with prospects like Wil Myers and Jesus Montero moving out from behind the dish. We still haven’t seen Jarrod Saltalamacchia really bust out. Austin Romine, Wilin Rosario, Derek Norris and Tony Sanchez are all on the way. If you love catching, you should love the present.

Tomorrow, to wrap things up we’ll have some fun talking about who best represents an average player at their respective positions.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Vote: Biggest stories of 2011

December, 27, 2011
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St. Louis Cardinals celebrate with trophyDoug Pensinger/Getty ImagesThe Cardinals won the 11th World Series title in franchise history.
As the year winds down, let's remember all the dramatic events and stories of 2011. We'll spend the next couple of days looking at the 16 biggest stories of the year and let the SweetSpot readers vote for the biggest and most memorable. Here are the first four.

Cardinals win World Series, send Tony La Russa out in style
After years of lackluster postseasons, the Cardinals capped off the first seven-game World Series since 2002 with a dramatic extra-inning victory in Game 6 and a 6-2 victory over the Rangers in Game 7. Of a possible 41 postseason games that could be played, 37 were played, including four series that went the distance. On Aug. 27, the Cardinals were 69-64 and 10 games behind the Braves in the wild-card standings. They went 21-8 the rest of the way, the Braves went 10-19, and the Cardinals became one of the most unlikely champions in baseball history. Tony La Russa, knowing it couldn't get any better than this, then called it quits after 33 seasons managing in the major leagues.

Red Sox collapse in historic fashion
While the Braves' late-collapse was fueled by a series of injuries to the starting rotation (Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens didn't start a game in September), the Red Sox' collapse received more national attention and seemed more horrific -- and rightly so. After all, this was the club that had traded for Adrian Gonzalez and signed free agent left fielder Carl Crawford in the offseason, making them the consensus favorite to win the World Series. Despite a comeback season from Josh Beckett and a comeback, MVP-caliber season from Jacoby Ellsbury, the Red Sox were unable to hold a nine-game wild-card lead held on Sept. 3. They went 7-19 the rest of the way, blew a ninth-inning lead on the final day of the season and missed the playoffs for the second straight year.

SportsNation

Which was the biggest story of 2011?

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Buster Posey's injury raises issue of home-plate collisions
When the Giants' super sophomore catcher saw his season end after a brutal collision with the Marlins' Scott Cousins on May 25, the debate over home-plate collisions -- and what can be done to prevent future injuries like Posey' fractured fibula and torn ankle ligaments -- remained in play the rest of the season. After the season, Joe Torre, baseball's vice president for on-field operations, declined to take the issue of home-plate collisions to the rules committee. As for the defending World Series champs, they actually led the NL West by four games when they acquired Carlos Beltran on July 28, but their lack of offense eventually undermined their excellent pitching.

Superb rookie class makes headlines
Time will tell if this class ends up as a historic group of players, but the rookie sensations of 2011 went beyond Rookie of the Year winners Jeremy Hellickson and Craig Kimbrel. First basemen Eric Hosmer of Kansas City and Freddie Freeman of Atlanta looked like future All-Stars; starting pitcher Michael Pineda of the Mariners ranked second in the AL in strikeout per nine innings; Toronto's Brett Lawrie, Seattle's Dustin Ackley and Tampa's Desmond Jennings excelled after midseason call-ups. Other top rookies in a deep class included Ivan Nova, Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos, Dee Gordon, Jordan Walden and Vance Worley.

Best catcher of 2011? Alex Avila

September, 12, 2011
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Alex AvilaRick Osentoski/US PresswireAlex Avila leads all regular major league catchers in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Hypothetical: There's a major league catcher draft and you have the No. 1 pick; which catcher should you take? For the sake of this discussion, let's say you're drafting a team of current big league players and will draft only one position per round to field a team for the next five years. You have the first pick in the catchers' round. The guy you should take is Detroit's Alex Avila.

SportsNation

Which catcher would you want for the next five years?

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Avila has been the best catcher in baseball this season. Among the game's everyday catchers -- let's say those who have started more than 100 games behind the plate -- Avila leads the majors with a .300 batting average, .391 on-base percentage, .522 slugging percentage and .913 OPS. He's No. 1 across the board. Remember, this hypothetical applies to catching actual games, not your fantasy league team, so forget about Victor Martinez or Mike Napoli -- the guy you draft has to actually crouch down and catch for you every day. Avila has done exactly that for the Tigers.

Avila has started 117 games behind the plate and has been remarkably durable. From July 3 through last Saturday, Avila started 57 of 61 games with Detroit going 37-20 in those Avila starts. Only the Diamondbacks' Miguel Montero and the Marlins' John Buck have caught more innings than Avila's 1,043. The fact that Avila has been at his best while the Tigers have pulled away from the AL Central field is not a coincidence. Avila has hit safely in 28 of his past 35 games, batting .358 with 11 doubles, eight home runs and 24 RBIs. He's reached base safely in 33 of those 35 games. Somehow, the daily grind of catching nearly every day seems to have fueled Avila's offensive production rather than drained it.

Avila is only 24 years old and turns 25 in January. He's nearly one year younger than Baltimore's Matt Wieters and has arguably moved ahead of Wieters among baseball's young catchers, although Wieters has quietly put together a promising season. Yes, there are other good candidates to consider with your top pick in the catchers draft and the offensive numbers say Avila's other two closest competitors are Montero and Atlanta's Brian McCann. If you then factor in the defensive numbers as well, here's a look at how the top four stack up (SB and CS are defensive stolen bases allowed and runner caught, while DRS is Defensive Runs Saved, via Baseball Info Solutions):



What about the rest of the contenders? Yes, Yadier Molina and Carlos Ruiz are outstanding catchers, particularly defensively. Avila is younger than both those players and gives you more offensive bang for your buck. Yes, that description would seem to apply to both Joe Mauer and Buster Posey, but consider this: How much do you really want your team's offense to depend on your catcher? In other words, can your catcher be too good a hitter?

That notion might seem ludicrous but look at the situation both the Twins and Giants were placed this year. Mauer began the season as a .327 career hitter with three batting titles and an MVP trophy. This year, Minnesota began paying Mauer $23 million per season and will do so through 2018. Mauer has hit just three home runs and already at age 28 the idea of him playing as the Twins' everyday catcher through the life of that contract seems impossible. Can the offense depend too much on a catcher? Ask the Giants. Players who hit at the level of Mauer or Posey very early in their careers demand significant investments if their franchises are going to keep them, perhaps too big an investment considering the dangers of the position. The argument can be made that you want your catcher to produce, but not so much that he leaves a gaping offensive void that cannot be adequately filled should he either face serious injury or wear down from the catching workload.

There are offensive players who can occasionally catch, such as Martinez and Napoli. There are young hitters who catch now but might soon find other permanent positions because their bats are too critical to expose to injury like Posey or Cleveland's Carlos Santana. Some teams get production from the catching position using a combination of players, like Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek in Boston. Some catchers are known best as glove men, like Molina and Ruiz. However, when you consider youth, durability and production both offensively and defensively, Avila would be hard to pass up with the top pick in a catchers draft.

Follow Steve Berthiaume on Twitter @SBerthiaumeESPN.
We finish the week as we do every Friday, with a packed Baseball Today podcast hosted by myself and Mark Simon dealing with many factors and looking ahead to a fun weekend. Here are a few highlights from Friday:

1. San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean goes off on the man who ended his catcher's season, and Mark and I agree it doesn't seem like the wisest course of action.

2. So much for matchup of star pitchers in Seattle Thursday, as Felix Hernandez was terrific but James Shields must have missed the memo. How should we view Shields' outing?

3. We debate stars versus superstars, trying to define what these words mean and which players fall into which categories. You might be surprised!

4. Seems like the three-homer games are in vogue now, as Aubrey Huff was the latest to pull off the accomplishment. Who's next? And no, taking Joey Bats or Joey Votto is too easy. Mark and I go off the grid for unlikely names.

5. There are a few series this weekend matching winning teams (in terms of record), so we analyze the ones you shouldn't be missing ... and of course the Mets play the Braves on Sunday night. That was for you, Mark!

Plus: Excellent emails discussing sabermetricians, more on our franchise draft picks, snobs versus dorks, reaching base after "fowling" a ball off yourself, and so much more we could barely get it all in before we lost our voices. Check out Friday's Baseball Today!

Champion Giants learning as they go

June, 2, 2011
6/02/11
1:29
AM ET

This early, it might seem strange to talk about a second-place club whose season has been defined by setbacks, but a World Series win does that to a team, and the Giants are beset by daily questions of what they’re going to do and what they can do. After losing Buster Posey last week, what seemed like a reasonable bid for a successful title defense has become a question of whether or not this old team still has win-now value, and their 2-4 record since losing their starting catcher going into Wednesday night only exacerbated the issue.

However, losing Posey for the rest of 2011 was merely the exclamation point to a litany of injuries that includes Pablo Sandoval being absent for more than a month. Perhaps the Giants will be best served by using what they got out of calling up Posey last year as an example of what they can keep doing, even in his absence: Help themselves by turning to better, younger players, all the better to exploit the opportunities to win already being created by a top-shelf pitching staff. Do that, and perhaps they can win on the nights when they don’t get their best games from their pitching -- as they did last night, even after Tim Lincecum allowed five runs and 10 hits.

The Giants won last year with a number of things going for them: a rotation arguably second to none, a great bullpen fronted by a closer capable of coming into games earlier than most relief aces and an offense good enough to rate in the middle of the pack. This year’s Giants’ pitching staff still has most of that going for it, even repeating its major league-leading strikeout rate, getting 21.4 percent of all batters to whiff after leading with 21.6 percent in 2010.

Heading into a Lincecum-pitched game on Wednesday, the Giants had cranked out quality starts in 63 percent of their contests this season -- third in the league -- with Lincecum and Matt Cain responsible for eight apiece in their first 11 starts. That combination has helped the Giants to an MLB-leading 15 one-run wins, and has helped them win 12 games while scoring three runs or less.

But when they’ve scored more than three runs, the Giants were 17-6 -- now 18-6 after coming out ahead of the Cardinals in 11 innings on Wednesday in St. Louis. If Wednesday night’s game was troubling because the Giants got more than those three runs and looked like losers after Lincecum got lit up in the seventh, the fact that they muddled through to win should be some solace. There’s no reason to second-guess Bochy’s willingness to trust his ace in the seventh, even against the league’s best offense. The Cards had manufactured only their first run, and scraped the next two out of defensive miscues in the fourth. They just flat-out hammered Lincecum in the seventh, a reminder that it happens to the best of them, but they tied the game in the top of the ninth, and the Giants got away with their extra-inning win against the ill-starred Ryan Franklin.

The seven-run explosion can be a reason to hope that the Giants are getting over their real problem early on: offense. The Giants rated 15th in the National League in runs scored before the night, and 28th in the major leagues in true average. That isn’t enough to make their good starts stand up, let alone the bad ones. Sandoval’s return later this month will help, but to help compensate in the meantime, the Giants can invest some hope that a couple of next-gen Giants can make a difference.

First, there’s the hope that Brandon Belt could help, even after his early-season flop, because with Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell and Cody Ross all unlikely to repeat last season’s exploits, adding a bat projected to produce an OPS north of .810 should improve matters. Their increasing willingness to work Nate Schierholtz’s good glove and modest power into their lineup reflects an open-mindedness toward getting better benefits on defense as well as offense.

That isn’t the only multi-benefit move the Giants are making of late, however. Instead of trying to become the first team to win a pennant with a 37-year-old shortstop since the 1956 Dodgers, the Giants have long since moved their old man, Miguel Tejada, to third base, making room for a fine shortstop prospect in Brandon Crawford.

Maybe “the book” says that you’re not supposed to win with a rookie shortstop, but the Giants did already win everything with a rookie catcher last year, breaking another no-no. Crawford should be hard-pressed to underperform Tejada’s .520 OPS, meaning the Giants won’t merely gain Sandoval’s bat once he returns, they can net the benefit of Crawford’s better all-around play as well. Crawford showed excellent range afield, but also rapped out the hit that gave San Francisco a two-run lead in the 12th, after Schierholtz had already broken the tie in the 12th (and delivering the tie on his base hit in the ninth). If these are to be the heroes of the Giants’ present, the good news is that they can’t hit worse than the old men, while adding something in the field.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Billy ButlerAP Photo/Ed ZurgaBilly Butler got the kind of bath every player loves, because it usually means they did something good.
Many years ago, I posted a poll question on ESPN.com asking something like: Which is the worst baseball sin? (A) Betting on baseball; (B) Taking PEDs; (C) Not hustling.

Not hustling won in a landslide.

Look, it's easy to understand why fans would vote for "not hustling." Certainly, they think, if I was in the major leagues making all that money, I'd run out every groundball ... or crash into a wall attempting to make a catch ... or block home plate even though a runner is barreling in at me and ready to knock out my intestines.

Which brings us to A's general manager Billy Beane. He told his catcher, Kurt Suzuki, to try to avoid collisions. "I said to him, 'I don't want you planting yourself in front of the plate waiting to get creamed," Beane told ESPN.

And he's right. One run in a regular-season game isn't worth the injury risk. For the same reasons, outfielders shouldn't run into walls and batters shouldn't slide headfirst into first base. Even busting down the line 100 percent on every routine groundball isn't really necessary. Is a pulled hammy worth getting thrown out by 3 feet instead of 5? Baseball is a long grind. You have to be there for 162 games. It's about the long season, not one play.

It's hard for fans to digest this, because seeing a guy not hustle can be infuriating. (To me, blocking the plate is a form of a "hustle" play.) But there's a difference between dogging it and being smart.

Back in 1995, Ken Griffey Jr. made a fantastic leaping grab, flying through the air, making the catch at the apex of his jump ... but then he crashed into the wall. He broke his wrist and missed two months. Now, the Mariners made the playoffs that year -- winning a division tiebreaker game against the Angels. But what if they had fallen one game short? Was Griffey's catch worth it? Of course not.

So I applaud Beane for his actions. It was smart to go public with his directions to Suzuki, because there is so much pressure in the game and from fans to be tough, to show that you care, to show that you want to win. But you know what? Billy Beane and Kurt Suzuki want to win. But you have to be smart about that and the best chance for the A's to win is for Suzuki to remain healthy.
Here are the top five reasons -- and there are like 324 reasons in all -- why you should listen to Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast with myself and Mark Simon!

1. ESPN contributor and former GM Jim Bowden makes his Baseball Today debut, discussing many topics, including the frailty of closers, Evan Longoria leading off and how the Buster Posey collision should have been avoided. That answer might surprise you!

2. Mark discusses a landmark Memorial Day around the big leagues, and whether weather might adjust statistics from here on out.

3. It's Power Rankings day, and let's just say one of us regrets jumping on the Cleveland Indians bandwagon. I should have known better! We list our top 10 and bottom five.

4. How is a pair of pants like Oliver Perez? I concede this is an odd one, but hang with us and you'll understand.

5. The Tuesday night schedule is full of young hurlers with bright futures, but we also discuss the ESPN battle in St. Louis. Are you taking Ryan Vogelsong or Chris Carpenter. Think about it ...

Plus: Excellent emails, brothers hitting home runs, how the umpires added to the Twins' discontent, today's birthdays, the Royals change closers and Bartolo Colon just keeps on keepin' on. All this and more in a packed Baseball Today podcast for Tuesday!
Here are five reasons to listen to Friday's packed -- and I mean packed -- Baseball Today podcast with myself and partner in statistical crime Mark Simon:

1. Mark interviews former pitcher/idol David Cone, who not only played baseball at a high level, but understands the game better now than one might think: He's a fan of the new stats like WAR.

2. More on the unfortunate Buster Posey injury, focusing on the good Brandon Belt can bring to the champs, more debate on what catchers go through and Mark compares backstops to a football position.

3. Do you have Baseball ESP? No, not ESPN, but ESP? Do you call out what the next hitter will do before it happens? We do!

4. Mark tells the story of something Rocky Colavito did when he wasn't smacking home runs at the plate, and its significance in the wake of Wilson Valdez’s feat.

5. Memorial Day weekend starts off the summer, but when it ends it's time to take a closer look at the standings. We explain while discussing the most critical matchups of the weekend.

Plus: Excellent emails, extra innings in the minor leagues, how R.A. Dickey can blame his injury on Daniel Murphy, Micah Owings comes up big, a Nick Markakis record that might not be a record, the most letters from pitcher to hitter in one at-bat, who is Harry Danning and why I will never forget Steve Jeltz. Have a safe, healthy and happy Memorial Day weekend, and we'll be back talking baseball on Tuesday!

Buster PoseyBrace Hemmelgarn/US PresswireIs the risk of injury too great to keep Buster Posey and other good-hitting catchers behind the plate?
On May 28 of last season, the San Francisco Giants were 25-22. Buster Posey was recalled the following day, the Giants went 67-48 and won their first World Series since 1954. Posey was named NL Rookie of the Year and finished 11th in the MVP voting despite spending the first two months in the minor leagues. His presence was a common denominator in changing the course of the Giants' season. Now, as Posey faces a recovery from a broken leg and severely sprained ankle ligaments following his collision with Florida's Scott Cousins Wednesday night, it's not unreasonable to wonder if an organization these days can afford to expose a player so critical to its success to the dangers of the catching position.

Since his recall, Posey has led the Giants in batting average and RBIs and is third on the team in home runs and slugging percentage. Accuscore.com ran 10,000 simulations on this season and if Posey misses the rest of this year, the computer projects the Giants' chances of reaching the postseason dropping from 57.7 percent to 44.4 percent. FanGraphs.com lists Posey second only to the Braves' Brian McCann in wins above replacement among all major league catchers since the start of the 2010 season. Certainly, a significant portion of Posey's value is because he's a catcher -- handling a pitching staff and throwing out baserunners. However, when does a player become too valuable as a hitter, or as a franchise cornerstone, to risk the wear and tear of working behind the plate?

SportsNation

Would you keep Buster Posey and Joe Mauer behind the plate?

  •  
    51%
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    28%
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    22%

Discuss (Total votes: 1,952)

Bob Boone played 19 years in the major leagues as a catcher and suffered an MCL injury in a home plate collision in 1979 that required extensive rehabilitation. While Boone said, "I never thought, 'Gosh, we've got to change the rule so that I don't get hurt,'" he does acknowledge the practical advantages of guarding an organization's most valuable assets, now that he's the Nationals assistant GM and vice president of player personnel. "We've made a lot of changes in the rules and in throwing at hitters over the years," Boone said. "It really has to do with the investment that baseball has in some of our young, great players -- and certainly Buster Posey, to lose him over something like this, is very hurtful to everybody."

Indeed, when the Nationals made Bryce Harper baseball's top overall pick in last year's draft, they shifted Harper from catcher to outfield. The move was meant to fast-track Harper's path to the big leagues and maximize his tremendous offensive potential, but just as important was the realization that the organization needed to minimize injury risks with its prized future hitting star.

Baseball players are investments. When a catcher becomes a leading hitter, he eventually becomes vital to the team's offensive production and is rewarded financially. When that financial investment then becomes so great it needs to see a return or risks damaging the long-term condition of the franchise, that catcher must change positions. This isn't an age thing. It's not Yogi Berra moving to the outfield at age 36, or a 34-year-old Johnny Bench starting 103 games at third base for the 1982 Reds. This is a money thing and the plain-as-the-nose-on-your-face question in Minnesota has quickly become: How can the Twins pay Joe Mauer $184 million and risk losing his bat for extended stretches because catching is taking too great a physical toll on his back and knees?

Catcher is a position of immense value on the field but it's one that provides the player a relatively low return financially, at least when compared to other positions. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, of the top 25 richest contracts in baseball history, Mauer is the only catcher. Behind Mauer and the Yankees' Jorge Posada, here are the highest-paid catchers by average annual value:

Kenji Johjima, $8,000,000 (2009-11)
Ramon Hernandez, $6,875,000 (2006-09)
A.J. Pierzynski, $6,250,000 (2009-10)
Bengie Molina, $5,333,333 (2007-09)
Jason Varitek, $5,000,000 (2009)

The catcher's value on the field is beyond description, but the risk involved in exposing the financial investment that a "franchise-type" player demands to the dangers of the catching position may simply have become too great. Take Atlanta's Brian McCann, who is 27 and has been an All-Star every year since 2006. For his career, McCann has averaged .288, 23 HRs and 99 RBIs per season. He's making $6.5 million this season, will earn $8.5 million in 2012, and the Braves hold a $12 million option for 2013. Assuming the option is picked up, McCann will be 30 years old when his current deal expires and will have caught eight full seasons in the big leagues. Would it then be practical for some team to give McCann a five- or six-year contract worth $100 million? Perhaps only if that team is willing to accept a decline in production in the back end of the contract or move McCann to another position midway through the term of the deal.

The Twins needed to sign Mauer to that $184 million contract. He'd grown into a brilliant player and into the very identity of their franchise. Posey, most would agree, was on a rocket to that same financial stratosphere and moving him from catcher already seemed in the cards. After all, Posey played his initial game on May 29 last season as a first baseman and went 3-for-4 with 3 RBIs. Teams need catchers and very good ones. The position is critical. However, the personnel at the position may have to become fungible as the price for superstars keeps going up.

Follow Steve Berthiaume on Twitter: @SBerthiaumeESPN.
Here are the top five reasons why Thursday's Coffee Talk, um, Baseball Today podcast with myself and Keith Law had all the emotions, from serious to silly and all between, and why you should listen:

1. It's a shame Buster Posey's season ended Wednesday night, but would there be calls to change the rules if it was someone else? We attack all angles of this situation.

2 Wilson Valdez saves the Phillies in the 19th inning! We discuss a very long game, the good, bad and unfortunate.

3. How can we avoid the Brewers being on fire? Well, we have reasons, but we deal with them today.

4. European baseball players and the "Big Whack": discuss. No, I can't discuss but this is right up Law's alley, and I learned something.

5. There will be much fun at Coors Field today. There generally is when Micah Owings is pitching ... and hitting!

Plus: Excellent emails, Oakland's offensive help in the minors, taking advantage of defensive shifts (or not) and even a little Mets talk in a Yankees-free but still crazy and wild Baseball Today podcast for Thursday!

When you watch the replay of Scott Cousins' collision with Buster Posey, you see Posey setting up slightly in front of the plate. While I wouldn't call it a dirty play, it's clear Cousins had room to slide around Posey to the back of the plate. But it's unfair to expect Cousins to make a split-second decision to determine if Posey is a few inches that way or this way, or whether he'll catch the ball or drop it. It was an unfortunate play, a play that baseball has allowed to happen for far too long.

Anyway, Buster Olney did a terrific job summing up the issues of the home-plate collision, so I thought I'd take a different direction and look at some of the game's most irreplaceable players.

For example, I wouldn't place Adrian Gonzalez on that list. As he good he is, the Red Sox could move Kevin Youkilis over to first base and Jed Lowrie to third base, with Marco Scutaro or Jose Iglesias playing shortstop. Yes, they'd lose offense, but the defense would actually improve. Miguel Cabrera is the centerpiece of the Detroit offense, but they could play Victor Martinez at first and they have other DH options. It wouldn't be a season-ruining blow. The Rays, for example, survived several weeks without their best player; heck, we're nearly a third of the way into the season and they're doing OK even though Evan Longoria hasn't done much at all. The Rays survived Longoria's injury and slow start due to having adequate infield help in Sean Rodriguez and Elliot Johnson.

As for Posey, his loss is certainly huge. With Pablo Sandoval currently on the DL, and Andres Torres missing much of the season so far, he's been their only effective offensive player for a large portion of the schedule. The Giants are last in the NL in runs scored as is. While Eli Whiteside is a decent backup, he's a replacement-level catcher. With Posey projected as a four- or five-win player over the full season, you could be looking at a three-win differential over the rest of the season.

Here are five other irreplaceable players (position players only):

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies: With the Rockies struggling to score runs and Carlos Gonzalez not hitting like last season, losing Tulo's bat (and defense) would be devastating. He's played 47 of 48 games this season and the Rockies don't even carry a legitimate backup shortstop on the roster.

Carlos Santana, Indians: Cleveland's version of Posey, a young catcher who anchors the middle of the order. Santana has more offensive support around him than Posey, but backup Lou Marson is even less effective offensively than Eli Whiteside, with a career .210 average.

Joey Votto, Reds: You don't subtract a .467 on-base percentage from the middle of your order and not suffer a huge drop in run production, even if prospect Yonder Alonso is big-league ready.

Ryan Braun, Brewers: Considering the Brewers' backup outfielders are Mark Kotsay and Nyjer Morgan, do I need to say anything more?

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: With Adam Lind currently sidelined, he seems like a one-man offense at times.
There are many reasons you should listen to Wednesday's three-headed Baseball Today podcast with myself, Keith Law and SweetSpot blogger David Schoenfield, but here are the top five:

1. Tuesday was a far different day for the De La Rosa pitchers, as one blew out of his elbow, and the other got the call to the big leagues. Are the Colorado Rockies in trouble replacing their De La Rosa? And what are the Los Angeles Dodgers doing promoting theirs?

2. Sticking with the NL West, do the San Francisco Giants want to score runs? Of course they do, but then why aren't they playing their best hitters? Then again, this isn't the same offense it was a year ago.

3. Should MLB take a cue from Premier League soccer and bump out the bottom few teams each season? As always, Mr. Law brings a strong opinion.

4. We talk relief pitchers, from the hierarchy of the Atlanta Braves' top duo to the fellow that earned a three-year contract from the Detroit Tigers.

5. On Wednesday's docket is a rematch of one of the best pitched games of 2010. Not to give too much away, but you can find this game on ESPN2!

Plus: Excellent, Gleeful emails (send to baseballtoday@espnradio.com, incidentally), discussion about a few prospects in the upcoming draft, Alfredo Simon's presence in the big leagues, Edinson Volquez's presence in the minor leagues, why Madison Bumgarner isn't a bum and I wantonly ring the Kara-bell, all on Wednesday's Baseball Today podcast!
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