SweetSpot: Carlos Gonzalez
Clearing the bases: How good is Scherzer?
Second base: Narveson out for season. Tough day for pitchers, as Michael Pineda will get another opinion on his shoulder and Mike Pelfrey went on the disabled list with elbow inflammation and possibly worse. Brewers starter Chris Narveson, however, is done for the season after it was announced he'll undergo rotator cuff surgery. Narveson was a solid fifth last season, but Marco Estrada is a nice replacement -- maybe even a step up. A fastball/curve/changeup guy, the Nationals originally drafted Estrada but never quite believed in him since his fastball is 90-91, and the Brewers picked him up on waivers in 2010. He pitched well last season, including a 3.70 ERA in seven spot starts, and threw well last week with five innings of one-run ball, with nine strikeouts and no walks against the Rockies. He isn't flashy, but he throws strikes and should be solid. We talk a lot about the need for rotation depth. Estrada will end up being a key to the Brewers' season.
Third base: CarGo-es deep. The Rockies lost 5-4 to the Pirates as the bullpen blew a lead in the eighth inning but the good news was Carlos Gonzalez finally hit his first two home runs, improving his triple-slash line to .278/.328/.500 (he raised his average 38 points and his slugging percentage 140 points in one night). Nice, but the Rockies will need more ... like 2010 more, when Gonzalez led the National League with a .336 average, slugged .598 and finished third in the MVP vote. That season was built on a .384 average on balls in play, third-best in the majors. His BABIP returned to more normal levels last season and his numbers fell. Gonzalez did start out slow last April (.228, one homer) before heating up in May and June, only to come down with a wrist injury in July that he aggravated again in September. Hopefully this is a sign the wrist is completely healthy and he'll start heating up.
Tweet of the night. A's rookie lefty Tom Milone improved to 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA with eight shutout innings against the White Sox.
His tweeting is boring as all get out but @tommymilone_57 is one hell of a pitcher. Outstanding.
— Brandon McCarthy (@BMcCarthy32) April 25, 2012
Three Giambi bombs for streaky Rockies
PHILADELPHIA -- Yes, we know the Major League Baseball season is a marathon and not a sprint, but the Colorado Rockies sure spent a lot of time in spring training obsessing over their form in the starting blocks. After going 40-57 over the past four Aprils, they’ve grown tired of spending five months each year in come-from-behind mode.
All that emphasis on hard work and attention to detail in Arizona paid off when the Rockies rolled out to an 11-2 start, which makes it a little disconcerting that they have been 12-17 since. Maybe it’s just a case of too much lactic acid buildup.
“Since I’ve been here, everybody said, ‘If the Rockies get off to a good start, it’s gonna be lights-out for them. They’re going to run away with this thing,’” shortstop Troy Tulowitzki said. “I’ve always said that it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re going to finish strong just because we start fast. That’s not the way baseball works.”
Here’s the way baseball works: The Rockies were forced to change course Thursday night when Todd Helton, the team’s most consistent hitter this season, arrived at the park with a cranky back. Manager Jim Tracy filled his spot in the lineup with Jason Giambi, popular clubhouse elder, valued pinch hitter and, lately, master cobweb collector.
While Helton is enjoying a second wind in his age-37 season, Giambi entered the Rockies-Phillies finale with three hits in 26 at-bats this season, an average of .115. That doesn’t mean Giambi, still young at heart at age 40, can’t look spry when his mechanics are in sync.
“He’s one good swing away from saying to himself, ‘There it is,’” Tracy said of Giambi while briefing reporters in his office before the game.
Three good Giambi swings into Thursday’s game, the Phillies were saying, “There it goes.”
Giambi homered in his first two at-bats against substitute starter Kyle Kendrick, then deposited a third homer -- the 419th of his career -- into the right-field seats against Danys Baez. Throw in a masterful seven innings by Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin, and Colorado left Philadelphia with a 7-1 victory and a split of the teams’ two-game series.
Chalk up Giambi’s feel-good performance to patience and a little intervention by Tracy and hitting coach Carney Lansford. Before the game, they told him he needed to stand more upright in his stance to give him more latitude to turn on inside fastballs. The tip paid off, as Giambi joined Babe Ruth, Stan Musial and Reggie Jackson as only the fourth 40-year-old to hit three homers in a game.
The teams played through a driving rain for two or three innings, but the umpiring crew never called a halt to the proceedings.
“We were just hoping to get the game in,” Giambi said. “Trust me, about the fifth inning, I was going, ‘God, please let’s get through the fifth.’”
Ultimately, if the Rockies plan to make the playoffs for the third time in six seasons, they’re going to need a big effort from the young franchise mainstays and 2010 MVP candidates, Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Right now, they’re works in progress. Gonzalez, who left Thursday’s game with tightness in his left groin, has a pedestrian .728 OPS in 41 games. And after laying waste to National League pitching in April, Tulowitzki is hitting 12-for-68 in May.
At the moment, Gonzalez, the 2010 NL batting champion, is struggling to embrace his heightened profile in baseball’s new-world order. A FanGraphs.com breakdown reveals that he’s seeing fewer fastballs this year (about 49 percent compared to 55 percent in 2010), as opponents are throwing him more breaking balls and changeups. He’s hitting a lot more balls on the ground, and some Rockies-watchers think he got into some bad habits trying to jack too many balls into the right-field seats in the first month.
If Gonzalez feels any extra pressure to produce because of his new seven-year, $80 million contract, he’s not about to share it publicly.
“I don’t really think about the contract,” Gonzalez said. “It hasn’t changed me at all. I still show up at the ballpark and try to work twice as hard as anybody else. I don’t think money makes you happy. What makes you happy is doing what you love to do -- what your passion is. And my passion is baseball.”
Funny, but Tulowitzki also uses "passion" to describe his approach to the game. If he has a tendency to take the fallow stretches to heart, it’s because he’s naturally inclined to push himself harder than anyone else ever could.
“I play this game with so much passion and care so much about it, I probably take it harder than the normal person,” Tulowitzki said. “And it’s not gonna change, because I care. I think it hurts me sometimes, but I definitely wouldn’t be where I am today if I wasn’t like that.”
While Tulo and CarGo keep grinding, the Rockies have other concerns. They need to fill the lineup’s black hole at third base, where Jose Lopez, Ian Stewart, Ty Wigginton & Co. are hitting a combined .149. Where have you gone, Vinny Castilla? And Colorado desperately needs a return to form by staff ace Ubaldo Jimenez, who finished third in the Cy Young Award race last year and ranked second to Albert Pujols in the NL with a wins above replacement of 6.7. Three weeks into May, Jimenez is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA.
“Anytime your ace isn’t pitching like you wish he was, that’s a big question mark for a team,” Tulowitzki said. “But we have full confidence that he’s going to get back to a place where he was last year.”
Confidence is a good thing for a hyped team that’s performing in fits and starts. The Rockies have faith they’ll reach their ultimate destination this season. But they’re ready for a lot of twists and turns along the way.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jerry Lai/US PresswireDon't blame it on Rios, the force was with Carlos Santana on this play at the plate.Pujols at third? Just part of a busy night
Every Monday should be like this. All 30 teams in action. Cliff Lee, David Price, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum, Tommy Hanson and Brett Anderson among the day's starting pitchers. The Yankees riding a five-game losing streak going in and facing clubhouse turmoil. Tony La Russa returning from treatment for shingles, wearing sunglasses and ... starting Albert Pujols at third base?
Indeed. Let's start there, in St. Louis, and watch a night of baseball in our trusty home office setup with our HDTV, MLB.TV and ESPN.com scoreboard operating simultaneously. By the end of the night, I'll feel a little like Vin Mazzaro, my head pounding from baseballs flying all around me.
Philadelphia at St. Louis: The night begins with Pujols playing third base. According to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, La Russa approached Pujols in the batting cage, and Pujols agreed to his first start at the hot corner since 2002. The move helped keep Allen Craig's bat in the lineup, but in right field instead of second base (where he started a game last week), with Nick Punto playing second and Lance Berkman moving to first as La Russa started eight right-handed bats against Lee. (He did, however, have pitcher Jake Westbrook batting ninth.) Pujols started 89 games at third his first two seasons, when he moved among third, first and the outfield, before moving permanently to first base in 2003 when the Cards acquired Scott Rolen. He actually rated as a good fielder there and would have been more than adequate if he had remained there. Still, a bit of a quirky move by La Russa. (Too soon for a shingles joke?)
Sure enough, in the top of the second, Pujols bobbles a potential double-play ball, getting just one out, which leads to Ben Francisco's RBI single. La Russa adjusts his sunglasses.
New York at Tampa Bay: David Price is not whom you want to face when trying to end a five-game losing skid, but the Yankees score twice in the second and then take a 5-1 lead on Curtis Granderson's long three-run homer to right in the fifth. Price tried to fire a 97 mph fastball past the Grandy Man (sorry, John Sterling made me do it), but it was right down the middle and Granderson became the first left-handed hitter to homer off Price since Chase Utley in 2009. It was Granderson's 14th home run of 2011 and, amazingly, his seventh off a left-hander. Entering this season, he was a career .211 hitting against lefties, with 20 home runs in 777 at-bats. He has seven in 40 at-bats in 2011.
Meanwhile, A.J. Burnett looks good, and hopefully we can all move on from this Jorge Posada nonsense if the Yankees win.
Philadelphia at St. Louis: Lee just walked Matt Holliday (looked like he got pinched by plate umpire Gerry Davis on an inside fastball) and Lance Berkman (fastball way outside) back to back for the second time in the game. Craig strikes out, but Yadier Molina reaches on an infield single, Punto bloops an RBI single into right and Ryan Theriot bloops another RBI single into right. It's not Lee's night. He'd end up walking a career-high six batters -- after entering with seven walks in 52 1/3 innings. Lee hasn't won since shutting out the Nationals on April 14. His other win came against the Astros, and the Phillies have won just four of his nine starts. It's been some bad luck, but his 3.84 ERA just isn't that impressive in 2011 -- that ranks 33rd among National League starters as I type this.
New York at Tampa Bay: And just like that, Burnett blows up. I blame Posada. Sam Fuld, the pride of New Hampshire, belts a two-run homer in the sixth. Actually, "belts" isn't quite the right word, but Fuld got enough to clear the fence near the foul pole. Then with two outs, Evan Longoria reaches on an infield single, Burnett throws a wild pitch, Matt Joyce singles in Longoria, Burnett uncorks another wild pitch and then throws a junk curveball that B.J. Upton appropriately belts -- right word -- for another home run and a 6-5 Tampa Bay lead.
Cleveland at Kansas City: Somewhere in here, I noticed the Indians are scoring a bunch of runs in the fourth inning. I figured, "Ahh, another bad start by Kyle Davies," but it turns out he left the game in the first inning with what the club called "anterior shoulder soreness." The victim was Vin Mazzaro, who turned in maybe the worst relief outing in major league history. I went back and watched his complete fourth inning, which went like this:
Matt LaPorta: Soft liner into right field.
Jack Hannahan: Bounces into a 4-6 force play.
Michael Brantley: Walks on four pitches. Mazzaro walks off the mound, tugs his hat, spits, and I feel sorry for him knowing what's about to happen.
Asdrubal Cabrera: Bloops an RBI single into left field.
Shin-Soo Choo: Mazzaro falls behind two balls, and pitching coach Bob McClure visits the mound. The Royals announcers talk about Mazzaro (who entered in the third) needing to suck up the innings in place of Davies. Choo ends up flying out to deep center.
Carlos Santana: The announcing crew mentions Mazzaro was scheduled to start Tuesday night and wonders whether the Royals knew Davies' health was a question mark. Santana falls behind 0-2 but ends up working a walk.
Travis Hafner: Slices a double to left-center as Melky Cabrera takes a step in and then stumbles going after it. Let's just say Andruw Jones in his prime would have caught it.
Orlando Cabrera: Slices a liner down the right-field line for an 8-0 lead.
Travis Buck: Mazzaro reaches his 30th pitch of the inning. I think every breaking ball he's thrown has been low and in the dirt. Buck grounds a ball into the hole that Alcides Escobar circles ... but double-clutches on the throw, and Buck beats it out.
LaPorta: Drills a double down the left-field line.
Hannahan: Dribbles a single into right.
Brantley: Drills a 91 mph meatball over the fence for a 10-run inning and 13-0 lead.
A. Cabrera: Mercifully, strikes out.
Now, with a little luck, Mazzaro would have been out of the inning much earlier. But he has no knockout pitch, and I don't think he threw an off-speed pitch for a strike the entire inning. And it would get worse: He'd be responsible for four runs the next inning. His final line score: 2.1 IP, 11 H, 14 R, 14 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO, 1 HR. And one likely trip back to Triple-A.
Philadelphia at St. Louis: Pujols turns a double play and makes a diving stop for an out on another play. La Russa adjusts his sunglasses.
New York at Tampa Bay: Joel Peralta throws two perfect innings, and Kyle Farnsworth closes it out with a 1-2-3 ninth, Longoria making a nice scoop on a slow chopper for the final out. There's a little irony in Farnsworth, scorned in New York during his years there and signed for $3.25 million by Tampa this offseason, effectively closing games while Rafael Soriano, Tampa's departed closer and now the Yankees' $35 million setup man, pitching poorly and battling a sore elbow. I blame Posada.
Philadelphia at St. Louis: The Cards' bullpen has been shaky, but Fernando Salas breezes through a 1-2-3 ninth. Salas doesn't throw hard, but La Russa hasn't been afraid to use closers who don't light up the radar gun as long they throw strikes. I don't know whether he'll hold the job, but on this night, Salas struck out Raul Ibanez and got Ryan Howard on a medium-deep fly ball to center and John Mayberry on a routine fly to center. During this tough stretch that began last week, the Phillies have gone 1-2 against the Braves, 2-1 against the Marlins, 1-2 against the Braves and now 0-1 against the Cardinals. Chase Utley, you are needed.
San Francisco at Colorado: I flip over to watch some of this one. Gotta watch Lincecum. I see Nate Schierholtz give the Giants a 4-2 lead with a one-handed home run off Clayton Mortensen. But then I see Timmy come apart in the bottom of the inning, as the Rockies score five, capped by Carlos Gonzalez belting -- correct word -- an outside fastball deep into the trees in right-center. The pitch was up, and CarGo seemed to be sitting dead red and yanked it with authority and had an animated home run trot around the bases. I wonder whether Lincecum took note.
Baltimore over at Boston: Flip over to Fenway Park, where the Red Sox have rallied from a 6-0 deficit to make it 7-6 by the bottom of the ninth. The bespectacled Kevin Gregg is on for the save. He's not my favorite closer in the world. Jacoby Ellsbury walks with one out. Dustin Pedroia steps in, works the count to 2-2, takes a splitter in the dirt as Ellsbury steals second, fouls a liner down the left-field line, fouls off another pitch, and another one, then works a walk on the ninth pitch of the battle. The proverbial "great at-bat." With the red-hot Adrian Gonzalez stepping in, you can predict this ending. He doubles off the Monster on the first pitch. Red Sox win 8-7. Yankees fans blame Posada.
Vin Mazzaro postscript: It turns out 11 relievers have allowed at least 14 runs (since 1919, via Baseball-Reference.com). But they all did it before 1945, and most were in long outings. The worst: Lefty O'Doul allowed 16 runs in a three-inning stint in a 27-3 loss for the Red Sox to the Indians. But only three of the runs were earned! The last reliever to give up as many as 11 runs was Mel Rojas, in a 22-6 loss for the Tigers to the Mariners in 1999. Rojas pitched just four more games in his major league career.
Florida at New York: I thought I was done, but then I see the Marlins and Mets are in extra innings. Marlins reliever Burke Badenhop comes up in the 11th with two runners on and two outs. Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez still has Ozzie Martinez left on the bench (he has only 13 position players) but leaves in Badenhop, who is 1-for-23 in his career with 12 strikeouts. Starter Josh Johnson lasted only five innings, so Badenhop is already the team's fifth reliever, but it still seems odd to leave him in with two outs. Sure enough, Ryota Igarashi throws a first-pitch curveball for a ball, falls behind 2-0 ... and then Badenhop hits a 3-2 fastball up the middle for an RBI single. In the bottom of the inning, the Mets are out of bench players (David Wright was unavailable), so pitcher Jonathon Niese pinch-hits with two outs ... and hits a triple off the glove off Emilio Bonifacio. That brings up Jose Reyes, and I'm pretty sure the night is going to go on forever.
Except Reyes strikes out.
And I think Mets fans blame Jorge Posada.
Meanwhile, out on the West Coast, Michael Pineda is throwing zeroes, the A's and Angels are tied at 0 ...
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesPlease, don't disturb Adrian Beltre. He looks pretty comfortable there. Just give him a moment.
Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireAfter striking out 638 times during the 2008-10 seasons, Mark Reynolds was traded to the Orioles.So, what went wrong?
1. The 2007 team wasn't that good. Despite winning 90 games it was actually outscored 732 to 712 and despite playing in a great hitter's park, ranked just 14th in the NL in runs and 16th in batting average and on-base percentage. In truth the Diamondbacks had a bad offense -- granted, one that could be expected to improve due to the young hitters ... but how much?
2. The Eric Byrnes contract. Late in the 2007, the team signed the scrappy Byrnes to a three-year, $30 million extension. Byrnes had a nice 2007, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 50 bases. But he was 31 years old and the contract proved a disaster as Byrnes hit .218 over two seasons before getting released.
3. Thinking they need to improve upon a rotation of Brandon Webb, Livan Hernandez, Doug Davis and Micah Owings, the team traded Gonzalez and Anderson to the A's for Dan Haren. Haren was traded last season to the Angels for a mediocre Joe Saunders and prospect Tyler Skaggs, who is several years from the majors. So, for Gonzalez and Anderson the team basically received two-plus years of Haren and a bottom-of-the-rotation starter.
4. Brandon Webb's injury. The team's ace and 2006 Cy Young winner, Webb won 22 games in 2008 before hurting his shoulder.
5. A related note has been Arizona's complete inability to develop starting pitchers. Once you get past Webb, the starting pitcher developed from within with the most victories in a D-backs uniform is Owings, who won just 14.
6. Strikeouts, strikeouts, strikeouts. The homer-happy approach of the lineup went too far. After striking out the 10th and 11th most times in history in 2008 and 2009, the team set the all-time record in 2010, whiffing an amazing 1,529 times, with five players striking out at least 145 times. The strikeouts became a major hindrance to the young hitters becoming bigger stars, most notably Upton, who followed an excellent 2009 with a disappointing 2010. Young has been inconsistent and the team finally gave up on 200-strikeout man Reynolds, trading him to the Orioles.
7. Too much lost talent: Quentin, Alberto Callaspo and Jose Valverde were all traded and Orlando Hudson left as a free agent. The Diamondbacks have nothing on the current roster to show for those guys.
8. Bullpen blues. The pen -- led by closer Valverde -- was excellent in 2007, but slowly deteriorated to the point that Baseball Prospectus analyzed the 2010 pen as the fourth-worst since 1950.
This much is clear: The days of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling heating up the desert seem long ago.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.
Early, but big series for Giants, Rockies
Who says there’s no such thing as a big series in April? Not me.
Starting Monday, we have Giants at Rockies for three games, and it certainly feels like a big showdown to me. The Rockies have baseball’s best record at 12-3 -- but have yet to play a team with a winning record, as they’ve cleaned up against the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Pirates, Mets and Cubs. So they have a little something to prove. The Giants are 8-7, four games behind the Rockies, and certainly don’t want to leave Denver seven games out of first place. They have their three top starters lined up (Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain) to prove something to Troy Tulowitzki and Co.
The Rockies have been impressive in outscoring their opponents 85 to 59, especially going 7-1 on the road, after a dismal 31-50 mark in 2010. The Rockies have had only one winning road season in franchise history -- 41-40 in 2009 -- so getting off to a strong start there is a positive sign.
Second-year righty Esmil Rogers starts Monday against Lincecum in what may look like a mismatch, but Rogers has been solid in winning his first two starts. As a rookie in 2010 he was jerked around between Triple-A and the majors, between the bullpen and starting, so this is a good opportunity for the Rockies to see what they have. So far he’s been effective against left-handers (.200/.300/.343) but there are doubts on how his stuff will fare consistently against lefty swingers.
And with all the attention given to Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, it’s easy to forget that Ubaldo Jimenez is back after missing a couple starts with a cracked cuticle. The Giants hit just .168 in four games against Jimenez last season. He starts Tuesday against Sanchez.
Cain has allowed three runs over his first three starts, despite just 10 strikeouts over 19 innings. Going back to last September, and including his three postseason starts, Cain has allowed more than two runs just once in 10 starts (his final regular-season start of 2010). He may not impress you with the raw stuff that Lincecum and Jimenez possess, but since 2009 the only starters with a better ERA are Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Carpenter and Lincecum.
The Giants may also make a move with Cody Ross during the series. After a couple rehab starts with Fresno on Sunday and Monday, he should be activated from the DL. Will rookie first baseman Brandon Belt be sent down? After an 0-for-4 effort on Sunday, Belt is down to .200/.310/.280, with one homer and one double in 50 at-bats. But his eight walks shows the excellent discipline and understanding of the strike zone he displayed in the minors.
Considering Aubrey Huff’s shaky efforts in the outfield, the Giants may want to move Huff back to first and send Belt down until his bat gets going. I think it would be a mistake; despite his postseason heroics, Ross just isn’t that good (and it hurts saying that, as I’m a big fan). Ross can hit lefties -- .883 OPS in 2010 -- but shouldn’t be a regular against righties (.687 OPS in 2010). Andres Torres’ strained Achilles tendon that landed him on the DL may give Belt a two-week reprieve, as Ross could slide into center field (except Aaron Roward is inexplicably off to a .364/.378/.568 start in 44 at-bats).
It all adds up to some intriguing subplots to the best series of the week.
OTHER SERIES OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles Angels at Texas
Monday: Ervin Santana (0-1, 3.74 ERA) vs. C.J. Wilson (1-0, 3.72)
Tuesday: Matt Palmer (0-0, 7.71) vs. Colby Lewis (1-1, 5.25)
Wednesday: Jered Weaver (4-0, 1.30) vs. Matt Harrison (3-0, 1.23)
The Angels are riding the red-hot arms of Jered Weaver and Dan Haren and come to Texas riding a five-game winning streak. The offense has been solid, but it’s coming from surprising sources: Maicer Izturis is hitting .383, Alberto Callaspo .346 and Howie Kendrick has five home runs. Vernon Wells has raised his average to .148, but still seeks his first home run. (How many years left on that deal?) For the Rangers, their own hot pitcher, Matt Harrison, squares off against Weaver in the series finale. Harrison’s start is especially impressive considering his outings have come against the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox. Harrison entered this season with 225 major league innings and not much of a track record -- 5.39 ERA, 261 hits, 31 home runs, only 4.9 K’s per nine innings. He’s allowed just 14 hits in 22 innings despite a below-average strikeout rate (5.7). He’s throwing more strikes and getting more ground balls, but I’m not sold on him just yet.
PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Friday: Jon Lester (1-1, 3.20 ERA) vs. Dan Haren (4-0, 1.16 ERA), Red Sox at Angels
Haren has been absolutely dominant so far, pounding the strike zone, allowing opponents a .164 average and generally looking like the best pitcher in the AL. If there’s been one complaint about Haren over the years it’s that he throws too many strikes, leading to a lot of home runs (31 in 2010, 27 in 2009), So far, he’s allowed just one in 31 innings, and pitching in Angel Stadium will help, as it’s one of the tougher home runs parks in the AL.
THREE SWINGS
1. Watched Jose Contreras close out the Phillies’ 3-2 win over the Marlins for his third save. It wasn’t pretty, as he walked two batters and threw just nine of 22 pitches for strikes, finally getting Omar Infante to ground out sharply to end it. Contreras hasn’t allowed a run in five innings, but I’m still a little skeptical about the Philly bullpen. But … maybe the Phillies won’t need much beyond Contreras, Ryan Madson (five scoreless innings) and Antonio Bastardo (nine K’s in 5 2/3 innings). Philadelphia relievers threw just 421 innings last season, fewest in the NL. No team has pitched fewer than 400 since the 2005 Cardinals threw 397 2/3, but the Phillies are a good bet to do it. That Cardinals team won 100 games and all five starters -- Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan and Matt Morris -- made at least 31 starts.
2. Welcome back, Grady Sizemore. Nice to see Cleveland’s center fielder go 2-for-4 with a home run, double and an RBI in his first game since May 16. The Indians are 11-4 after sweeping the Orioles for their third series sweep already, and it’s worth noting that Shin-Soo Choo (.214/.286/.339) and Carlos Santana (.196/.276/.314) aren’t hitting yet, and they will.
3. I watched the major league debut of Arizona pitcher Josh Collmenter and he had one of the weirdest motions you’ll see. Midway through the windup, as he brings the ball back behind him, he does a little bit of a knee jerk of sorts, leans back a bit, and then comes straight over the top. He’s not really much of a prospect -- Baseball America didn’t rate him as one of Arizona’s top 30 prospects -- but he entered in the 11th inning against the Giants, threw strikes, worked quickly (a lesson for all rookies), retired all six batters he faced and got the win when Arizona scored in the bottom of the 12th. Congrats, Josh.
RANT OF THE WEEK
Right when I start believing in the Brewers … they go out and lose a doubleheader to Jason Marquis and Livan Hernandez, two guys who can’t break 90 with their fastballs (actually, in the case of Livan, he can’t break 85). The Brewers desperately need Corey Hart to return, as the team’s lack of depth is embarrassing. Mark Kotsay? Forty-year-old Craig Counsell? Thirty-three-year-old outfielder Erick Almonte, once hailed as the next Derek Jeter, but now listed at 245 pounds and coming off a two-homer season in Triple-A? Please. This has to be one of the worst benches in the majors, especially for a supposed contender.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
AP Photo/Alex GallardoSomewhere in there is Matt Kemp, who belted a walk-off winner in the ninth against St. Louis.Best 1-2 punch in majors: Tulo & CarGo
In a four-game series at Citi Field, Tulowitzki hit .625 (10-for-16) with four home runs and eight RBIs. Tulowitzki became the first player to homer in each game of a four-game series against the Mets. The Rockies swept all four games to increase their overall win streak to six games and their record to 10-2, the best in baseball and the best start in franchise history. What is even more enticing for Rockies fans is the notion that Tulowitzki has a wingman in Carlos Gonzalez, who is almost certainly going to go on a similar tear at some point. Yes, Tulo & CarGo could be a bad cop show from the '80s. They also may be the best 1-2 punch in baseball.
With only a two-week sample size available for 2011, let's take last season's basic numbers. Here are arguably the five best teammate duos in the game and where each pair ranks according to their combined 2010 statistics. In the interest of symmetry, I have excluded the Yankees' trio of Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira only because they are exactly that, a trio. This is about finding baseball's best 1-2 punch and it's hard to include two from the Yankees but leave out a third.
If we then apply an MVP-style voting system and award 5 points for finishing first in a category and 1 point for finishing fifth, the results are as follows:
Troy Tulowitzki/Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: 16 points
Albert Pujols/Matt Holliday, Cardinals: 16 points
Josh Hamilton/Nelson Cruz, Rangers: 11 points
Joey Votto/Jay Bruce, Reds: 10 points
Prince Fielder/Ryan Braun, 7 points
If those numbers are too simplistic for you, let's metric-up for some deeper analysis. Weighted On-Base Average (or wOBA) includes all the different aspects of hitting and gauges each one based on its actual run value. It's the weighted part that gives you a more detailed number by which to measure what a batter did at the plate, giving more weight to home runs than singles, and so on. Tulowitzki and Gonzalez both ranked in the top 10 in wOBA last season. Hamilton and Cruz were the only other pair of teammates to do so with a minimum of 400 plate appearances.
WAR (wins above replacement) measures a player's value over over a replacement-level bench player. WAR includes everything a player does on the field -- hitting, fielding and baserunning -- and summarizes with a single number representing how many more wins that player is worth to his team than the replacement player who would play in his place. Using 2010 statistics, here's how our five teammate candidates rated by WAR:
Pujols (7.3)/Holliday (6.9) -- 14.2
Hamilton (8.0)/Cruz (5.1) -- 13.1
Votto (7.4)/Bruce (5.3) -- 12.7
Tulowitzki (6.4)/Gonzalez (6.0) -- 12.4
Fielder (4.1)/Braun (4.2) -- 8.3
Another reason WAR has value as an overall evaluation tool is because it does include defense. For instance: Despite hitting a relatively light .277 last season with five home runs and 47 RBIs, the Yankees' Brett Gardner had a WAR of 5.4, higher than Jay Bruce (5.3), Nelson Cruz (5.1), Ryan Braun (4.2) and Prince Fielder (4.1). One reason why was Gardner's Defensive Runs Saved score of +16, which tied for third among outfielders.
Defensive Runs Saved measures how many runs a player saved his team in the field when compared to the average player at that position. From 2007 through 2010, Tulowitzki ranked fourth in the major leagues in Defensive Runs Saved at +57, behind only Chase Utley (+75), Ryan Zimmerman (+73) and Adrian Beltre (+60). Gonzalez was 14th among outfielders from 2008 to 2009 at +20, but despite all those Web Gem catches in left field last season, Gonzalez actually plummeted to a -2 DRS in 2010. That was likely an aberration and considering Gonzalez's previous two seasons in the outfield and Tulowitzki's body of work at shortstop, the only duo among our five candidates that might challenge the Rockies' tandem defensively would be Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.
What about the ability to lead or carry your team through critical stretches over the course of a season? As we saw last year and are seeing again this spring; the Tulo and CarGo show can often be baseball's version of must-see TV. These guys, for stretches of several weeks, can be electric. Tulowitzki has been baseball's best player going back to Labor Day. Since last September, the Rockies shortstop has a 1.198 OPS, 22 home runs and 54 RBIs, leading the major leagues in all three categories. Gonzalez has been slower carrying over his remarkable 2010 season, but he hit his first home run of the season on Thursday. Tulowitzki then followed with a home run in the very next at-bat. These two can be a force like no other in the game because they can both reach white-hot levels for weeks at a time.
Randy Robles from the Elias Sports Bureau provided this list of 2010 OPS leaders after the All-Star break (minimum 250 plate appearances). You'll note only one pair of teammates made the top 5:
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays -- 1.099 OPS
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies -- 1.091 OPS
Joey Votto, Reds -- 1.042 OPS
Albert Pujols, Cardinals -- 1.033 OPS
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies -- 1.020 OPS
Former pitcher and current "Baseball Tonight" analyst Curt Schilling pointed out that Colorado's current run of six straight wins, and 10 of its last 11, has happened with Gonzalez hitting a modest .260 to this point. In the meantime, it's Tulowitzki who is baseball's hottest player right now, hitting .364 and leading the majors with seven home runs. "He is not uncomfortable at the plate," Schilling said. "He's incredibly comfortable. A lot of his home runs came early in the at-bat or first pitch. But they're following pitches that aren't getting him to move his feet and I'm not talking about throwing at him or trying to drill him. I'm talking about getting him uncomfortable. He doesn't have any reason not to be settled in the box."
Former Reds star and "Baseball Tonight" analyst Barry Larkin has been admiring Tulowitzki's leadership qualities. "He's setting the tone," Larkin said. "He goes out there and he's got a strut about himself. He has a swagger about himself. I'm calling him 'Bad Dude' now, just because of the way he goes out and does his thing."
"Tulo & CarGo" could be a great cop show. They'd drive frantically around city streets, give each other sarcastic looks while arguing about their personal lives and get chewed out by their captain who's had enough of their screw-up antics and threatens to take away their detective badges. He might have them walking a beat or writing traffic tickets. Clearly "Tulo & CarGo" are best served working stadium duty.
(Justin Havens from our "Baseball Tonight" research staff was a great help in putting this post together. It's colleagues like Justin who make working on the show such a great experience.)
Follow Steve on Twitter at @sberthiaume.
Rockies poised to win first division title?
Already 10-2, they're in first place after sweeping Thursday's doubleheader in New York against the Mets. Could the team that always seems to put the "wild" in wild card after epic in-season comebacks propelled them to October glory in both 2007 and 2009 win its first division title? Absolutely, and if the Rockies do, it'll be a testament to their adaptability.
Adaptability, you ask? That's the word I prefer, although because of those rallies to win the NL wild card, some folks might talk about their resilience. However, there was enough turnover between the various season editions of Colorado baseball -- including the celebrated switch to Jim Tracy in the dugout in '09 -- that it's somewhat hard to ascribe that to the players in isolation.
Doug Pensinger/Getty ImagesCould this be the year Troy Tulowitzki and the Rockies break through and with a division title?Among the position players, you've got four holdovers: the current and former faces of the franchise, Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton, in the everyday lineup. They also have frequently frustrating catcher Chris Iannetta, and handy, dandy fourth outfielder par excellence Ryan Spilborghs. So as far as this entire team's concerned, we're talking about all of six or seven guys -- out of 25 -- who can talk about multiple playoff experiences in purple and black.
That isn't a negative, not by any stretch. The Rockies' turnover across five years reflects what a tremendous job GM Dan O'Dowd and his staff have done at restocking that roster and digging up value, both through player development and their acquisitions from trades and the floating pool of available talent. Building around this core talent -- or core talents of Jimenez and Tulo, when you get right down to it -- they've made inspired trades, leveraging their last season in control of Matt Holliday into Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street, or getting Jorge De La Rosa from the Royals in a nothing-seeming sort of deal. But they've also added just enough homegrown talent over that time.
Which is why I think we're better off crediting the Rockies as an organization for their adaptability. This isn't about moisturizing the ball to overcome the challenge of playing at altitude, or at least it isn't just about that. Even with the humidor, Coors Field is still the best hitters' park in baseball. That's OK, because the Rockies didn't win in 2009 because of their home-field advantage, they won because of three key inter-related factors.
First, they led the majors in quality starts, a surprising development to no little extent because they were counting on journeyman Jason Marquis and Rays roster-crunch refugee Jason Hammel among their front five. But those starters had the benefit of a quality supporting cast in the field, reflected somewhat in the best park-adjusted defensive efficiency in the National League. Finally, they finally had a lineup that wasn't entirely park-dependent and was drawing walks everywhere, leading the league in free passes. Those three play-everywhere factors contributed to a franchise-best 41-40 road record.
As far as upsetting the Giants' applecart and winning their first division flaglet, this year's team should have those same three things going for them. Gone are the days of that 2007 team that goosed its offense by depositing a pair of former first basemen, Brad Hawpe and Garrett Atkins, at other corners and taking the defensive hit that came with it. The offense is again rating among the league's best at drawing walks anyway. And on the staff, even with Cook out, thanks to the breakthrough of Jhoulys Chacin in the rotation last year and the retention of De La Rosa, they might have an even better rotation than 2009's improbable outfit. Jimenez is now better established among the game's best starters, Chacin might be the third man in a homegrown trinity of top talent.
However, the hope that Tulo stays healthy and in the lineup (and on the field) is perhaps the fulcrum around which both their offense and defense depends upon, which is why he rated well on some preseason ballots for MVP. There's nothing coincidental about the fact that, when he's been able to play a full season -- he did in both 2007 and 2009 -- Rocktober becomes a possibility. If he's able to manage another 150-game season this year, the MVP award won't be the only hardware he'll have a shot at.
Christina Kahrl helped found Baseball Prospectus in 1996, is a member of the BBWAA, and covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter here.
Catcher -- Buster Posey, Giants. Had a monster July (.417, 1.195 OPS), tailed off in August and hit .233 in September but with eight home runs. I expect him to settle in as an All-Star for the next 10 seasons or so with a chance to win an MVP Award if that Pujols guy ever slows down.
First base -- Brandon Belt, Giants. Going out on a limb here, but I think Belt ends up with 500 PAs by the end of the season, with Aubrey Huff moving to the outfield. Todd Helton? Brad Hawpe? James Loney? Belt will outproduce those guys if he plays. Russell Branyan could have a nice year in the desert, but he's likely to be platooned and is a big injury risk.
Second base -- Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks. People view Johnson's 2010 as a fluke, but it wasn't that much better than his 2007 and '08 seasons in Atlanta once you adjust for park context. He won't hit 26 home runs again, but I give him the slight edge over the good-field, mediocre bat duo of Orlando Hudson and Freddy Sanchez.
Third base -- Pablo Sandoval, Giants. Sandoval, Ian Stewart and Chase Headley had similar results last year. Headley is the best defensive player of the trio, Stewart struggles against lefties, and Kung Fu was a big huge disappointment. But I feel our man will bounce back. Baseball Prospectus projects a .307/.358/.491 line.
Shortstop -- Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies. A popular MVP candidate with good reason. He finished fifth in the voting a year ago despite missing 40 games, and won his first Gold Glove. Sure, the home park inflates his numbers a bit, but he still hit .291/.358/.504 on the road, Ruthian numbers for a shortstop these days.
Left field -- Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies. Anybody want Jay Gibbons here? Much was made of Gonzalez's big home/road split in 2010 (.380/.425/.737 versus .289/.322/.453), but this group is so weak that even that .289/.322/.453 line might rank No. 1.
Center field -- Chris Young, Diamondbacks. Andres Torres was the No. 1 guy here last year, with a surprising year at the plate and superb defense. This is a fun position. You can make the case the division title could rest in the hands of which center field has the best season: Torres, Matt Kemp or Dexter Fowler. (Not to completely discount the Padres or Diamondbacks, but I guess I just did.) Even if Kemp rebounds at the plate, his shaky defense means Young is the guy I'll take.
Right field -- Justin Upton, Diamondbacks. Andre Ethier is a terrific hitter (at least against righties) but not in Upton's league as a defender. It's easy to forget that Upton will spend most of the 2011 season at 23. I expect a season akin to his 2009 ... and maybe better.
Right-handed starter -- Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies. He wasn't as effective in the second half after going 10-1 with only seven runs allowed over his first 11 starts, but this is still a guy who allowed a .311 slugging percentage despite pitching half his games in Coors Field. On the road, he held hitters to a .184/.286/.278 line. And that's why I have to apologize to Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Mat Latos.
Left-handed starter -- Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. The gloves came off a bit last season as he topped 200 innings for the first time. His strikeout did decline a bit in the second half, but he maintained his overall effectiveness as his walk rate also improved. Nasty stuff, fun to watch, and a Cy Young contender.
Closer -- Brian Wilson, Giants. He might miss Opening Day, but he should be fine to put up another big season. The only pause is his workload: 80 games and more than 86 innings between the regular season and playoffs.
Did Rockies do enough to compete in 2011?
The biggest splash the Rockies made on the open market this winter was a move that wasn’t. The Rockies’ long-rumored interest in Rangers third baseman Michael Young hit a fever pitch when the Rangers “slugger” announced his desire for a trade. The Rockies and Rangers couldn’t get a deal together, and both sides stopped just short of pronouncing the deal dead this week. Instead, the Rockies opted for minor moves like acquiring Jose Lopez and Ty Wigginton. The important question remains: Are they any closer to challenging for the N.L. West crown?
In a word: Yes. The 2010 Rockies won 83 games, finishing 9 games behind the Giants after a wild month of September. Entering the month trailing the division leading Padres (!) by 7 games, the Rockies lost two one-run games to the Giants before rattling off 10 straight wins -- powered solely by Tulowitzki’s hair and good looks. (Also his home runs: Tulo hit eight in that 10-game span.) Suddenly, the Rockies sat only 2.5 games out of the division lead. Unfortunately for Colorado, that was as close as it got. The Rockies slumped to the finish, eventually losing 15 of their 19 remaining games.
The Rockies proved they have the talent to take a run at the playoffs in 2010 and, by solidifying the core of their team, they’re able to add fringe pieces with potential like Lopez and Wigginton. Lopez wore out his welcome in Seattle with a (perceived) bad work ethic and poor plate discipline. Lopez was terrible at the plate in 2010 but can supply some pop -- especially after moving from spacious, right-handed-hitter killing Safeco to Coors Field. Not to mention his excellent defense across nearly all advanced metrics in his first full season at third base.
Wigginton posted equally dire numbers to Lopez at the plate in 2010, without the benefit of superlative defense. Serving as a right-handed utility bat to spell creaky first basemen Todd Helton and Jason Giambi would be the best option for Wigginton.
Getting full seasons from both Chris Iannetta and Jhoulys Chacin should only prove the Rockies have one of the best young cores in all of baseball. Adding veteran pieces to address specific concerns is the mark of a good GM. O’Dowd’s moves this winter might not be sexy, but his team is a solid pick to take down the Giants in 2011.
Drew Fairservice writes the Blue Jays blog Ghostrunner on First. Follow him on Twitter.
- I don't understand how a hitter in CO can be penalized for home/road splits and pitchers are not given an advantage. I understand they are not in the A.L. East but stats have to be taken with a grain of salt based on bias in the media. Cargo could lead in every offensive/devensive category and still not be the MVP. Please just state the obvious bias that sports writers have against CO.
- Chad (Chula Vista, Cal.)
When you say "penalized" I'm not sure what you mean, Chad. The number (1) of Rockies who have won an MVP Award is his higher than the number (0) of Rockies who have obviously deserved to win an MVP Award. Larry Walker was fantastic in 1997 when he took the honors, but was he more fantastic than Mike Piazza and Barry Bonds and Craig Biggio? It's not at all clear that he was.
I do think Troy Tulowitzki was robbed of the Rookie of the Year Award in 2007. It was an incredibly close vote, and at least one voter -- enough to swing the result, in the event -- probably did hold Coors Field against Tulowitzki.
So I would say the Rockies are batting .500 when it comes to awards, hardly enough evidence to gain an indictment for bias against our nation's sportswriters. Let alone a conviction.
I think the writers have actually gotten this one mostly right, over the years. When the Rockies played in Mile High Stadium, the writers appropriately discounted, heavily, some of the crazier hitting stats compiled by slugging Rockies (well, with the exception of Dante Bichette in 1995, who finished a strong second in MVP balloting but wasn't one of the five best players in the league).
When the Rockies moved into Coors Field, the writers continued to appropriately discount, heavily, their hitters' statistics. And I think the writers did begin to discount the Rockies' statistics less heavily when the humidor was installed and the numbers came down some. Now, instead of Coors Field being one of the greatest hitter's parks in the game's history, it's merely a great hitter's park relative to the other current ballparks. And I think the writers recognize this.
You don't offer any specific example of a Rockies pitcher who's "not given an advantage," but I'll assume you're thinking about Ubaldo Jimenez, as he's the first Rockies pitcher in a while who's deserved a great deal of attention. But you must remember that when Jimenez was 15-1 at the All-Star break, with a 2.27 ERA, he was generally considered a lock for the Cy Young Award. If the balloting had happened then ... Well, I might not have voted for him. But most of the real voters would have.
Since then, though, Jimenez has gone 3-5 with a 3.98 ERA. Even if you give him credit for pitching in Coors Field, his ERA is just the seventh best in the league. His strikeout rate is 10th best. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is ... well, let's just say it's nothing particularly special. Jimenez is having a fantastic season. If he finishes strong, he might deserve to be strongly considered for the Cy Young Award, along with Roy Halladay. But at this point, there's simply no real evidence that Jimenez is getting less credit than he deserves.
Chad, accusing sportswriters of bias won't get you anywhere. Sure, some of that goes on. It's not hard to spot, individually. Especially when awards season arrives in November. As a group, though, writers are biased much less against places (Colorado, Kansas City, etc.) and people than against ideas (there's more to baseball than wins and RBI, steroids are just the latest drug of choice, etc.). Always have been.
My friend, you probably should look somewhere else to explain the things you find so irksome.
The meaning of CarGo's home/road splits
1. Carlos Gonzalez suddenly has a legitimate shot at the Triple Crown (which you probably knew)
Dustin Bradford/Icon SMICarlos Gonzalez is batting .394 at home and .288 away from Coors Field so far this season.2. Carlos Gonzalez has some of the most extreme home/road splits that anyone's ever seen (which you might not have known).
Joe's big finish:
So here’s my question: Is it at least possible that hitting in Coors Field, with its light air and huge dimensions, affects a hitter’s swing and mental approach and actually hurts him on the road? I’ve had hitters tell me that they go to Coors Field for a series, and it takes them a week to recover. Maybe that’s just talk, but as Henry Fonda says in 12 Angry Men, “Is it possible?” Yes, Cargo has been ridiculous at home — he’s slugging .801 for crying out loud — but on a team hitting .228 and slugging .354 on the road, doesn’t his .288 average and .450 slugging percentage look pretty good?*
* His lack of walks, home (22) and especially road (9), are a topic for another time.
This is not to say that Cargo’s season isn’t bizarrely inflated by Coors Field. It is inflated, no question. But I think it’s a bit more complicated than that. He’s have an amazing offensive season, an absolutely amazing season, and in my mind it should not be written off because he’s destroying the ball at Coors Field.
Yes, it's absolutely possible that hitting in Coors Field both boosts his home performance and depresses his road performance. We've been arguing about why this happens for a long time, but I'm fairly confident that it does happen. I've believed, for a long time, that playing at that altitude leads to extreme adjustments by Rockies hitters, adjustments that don't serve them well upon descending the mountains.
So, yes: CarGo's having an amazing season.
Can we talk about those walks, though?
Because they do count. If Gonzalez does somehow grab the Triple Crown and the Rockies charge their way into the postseason, there will be a great deal of sentiment for Gonzalez to win the National League's MVP Award.
But would he deserve it?
Umm, maybe. Even with so few walks, depending on which defensive metrics you trust (or don't), Gonzalez might be the second- or third-most valuable player in the National League ... or he might be the eighth- or ninth-most valuable. I think it's safe to suggest that if he does win the Triple Crown, he'll have finished the season on a tear, moving him up a spot or two on whichever list your prefer.
If we assume for the moment that Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Gonzalez aren't going to get the serious consideration they deserve, this might simply be a battle between Gonzalez and Joey Votto. Which we may revisit in great detail when most of the numbers are in the books.
- Carlos Gonzalez's time has come.
The left-handed-hitting outfielder acquired as part of the package from Oakland for Matt Holliday will join the Rockies in St. Louis on Friday. The Rockies also have activated right-handed reliever Matt Daley from the disabled list.
--snip--
Manager Jim Tracy is expected to juggle Seth Smith, Gonzalez and switch-hitting Dexter Fowler in left field and center field, ensuring each gets at least five starts a week. Ryan Spilborghs would appear to be in line to become the fifth outfielder.
Gonzalez forced the issue. He is hitting .339 with 10 home runs, 12 doubles, seven triples and 59 RBI in 47 games at Colorado Springs.
"It's time,” Tracy said of bringing up Gonzalez, who came to the Rockies from the A's along with closer Huston Street and left-handed pitcher Greg Smith. "At the end of spring I sat in when Clint (Hurdle, former manager) met with the young man, and Carlos has answered all the messages he was given.”
Asked about the crowded outfield, Tracy said, "That will be what I have to figure out. I accept that challenge.”
It's not really the Rockies' five outfielders I wanted to write about, though. Rather, this story -- and particularly CarGo's stats at Colorado Springs -- got me to thinking about how we define "prospect."
My first impulse was to look up Gonzalez in the books about prospects that I keep handy. Gonzalez doesn't appear in either of them. It took me too long to remember that Gonzalez actually spent significant time in Oakland's outfield last season, and thus probably didn't qualify for inclusion in those books.
Sure enough, Gonzalez played in 85 games with the A's in 2008. He was awful, which is why Billy Beane was willing to trade him. But Gonzalez was regarded as a fine (though flawed) prospect before his struggles with the big club, and he turned 23 just last fall. Isn't he still a prospect?
Semantics, I know. I suppose this little essay is directed mostly at John Sickels and Baseball America, who publish my go-to prospect guides each spring. Baseball America goes 30 deep in each organization; Sickels goes well into the 30s. As you might guess, once you get past the first dozen or so prospects in an organization, you're mostly wading through guys who will either never make the majors or, if they do, won't make much noise.
In the interest of pure utility, then, I will suggest that we -- along with the authors of our favorite books about young players -- redefine "prospect" to cover any young player who hasn't yet made a positive impact in the major leagues, but might still.











