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My special co-host for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast was ESPN writer and former GM Jim Bowden, and let’s just say neither of us held back in what was an entertaining, honest and lively show.

1. The Red Sox are apparently cool with Adrian Gonzalez playing right field, but for how long? How easy will it be for the team to trade Kevin Youkilis? And should the Red Sox and Phillies be sellers?

2. Jim shares his thoughts on his players that will be traded before July 31, leading with a former Cy Young winner plying his trade for a team that can’t afford him.

3. Ah, here’s a topic we never get to: closers. Jim and I debate the human effect for fellows like Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall.

4. When Tampa’s Joe Maddon makes unconventional decisions, we praise him. Is that fair? What if a manager not known for his good moves would have led Carlos Pena off?

5. Finally, we look at Wednesday’s schedule, which includes Cole Hamels versus Bryce Harper. The Nationals are clearly getting the last laugh on their I-95 rivals.

So download and listen to a fun Baseball Today podcast, because it’s boring when everyone agrees. And on this show, that just wasn’t the case!

Leave it to Joe Maddon and the Tampa Bay Rays to find another unconventional way to play baseball: Carlos Pena is hitting leadoff in tonight's game against Toronto.

Yes, the first baseman with one stolen base and a .209 batting average. Last week, in a 2-1 victory over the Red Sox, Maddon had second baseman Jeff Keppinger and third baseman Sean Rodriguez shift positions for the final batter, left-handed hitter Daniel Nava. Rodriguez has more range than Keppinger, so Maddon moved him to second. Sure enough, Nava grounded out to Rodriguez for the final out.

Now, it's possible that Maddon is looking at Pena's .353 on-base percentage (.372 against right-handed pitchers) and thinking Pena is the team's best leadoff option right now with Desmond Jennings on the disabled list. It's possible he's trying to help Pena snap out of a big slump -- he's hitting .116 in May -- like a year ago when he moved Evan Longoria into the leadoff spot for three games. Either way, how many managers would hit their slow-footed first baseman first?

There's a bigger issue concerning Pena, however. Since April 18, he's hitting .143/.302/.223 with two home runs in 112 at-bats. He's tied for second in the majors in most strikeouts. With two strikes, he's useless: .110 on the season, and just 3-for-60 (.050) with 42 strikeouts since April 18. His skill set right now is essentially the ability to draw walks. Considering he can't hit left-handers, you can't keep a guy like that in the middle of the order.

I remember way back when Bill James asked if Mickey Tettleton had taken the whole walks/strikeouts approach too far. It's possible we can ask the same question for Pena. Maddon has shown a lot of patience with Pena, starting him in 42 of Tampa's 43 games. It's also clear that he needs to be platooned, but in this day of 12-man pitching staffs it's difficult to platoon at first base. It makes you wonder if this leadoff thing doesn't work if the Rays will be searching for a new first baseman.

The Rangers are giving notice to the rest of the American League that they’re not just a two-time pennant winner, they’re a club settling into ruling the roost -- the ascendant franchise in the circuit. From among the old standbys, it doesn’t hurt that the Yankees are dealing with rotation drama, the Angels have Pujols’ homer-lessness and the Red Sox have a miasma of self-inflicted dysfunction.

But there’s always the Rays, even with that double whammy Texas handed Tampa Bay in consecutive October showdowns. Ever mutating, transmogrifying and adapting, buying low and selling high, the Rays’ annual remix should always leave you wondering if they’re about to become something even more. Some of that is the usual enthusiasm over prospects, which the Rays crank out as if they held the patent: From David Price to Jeremy Hellickson to Matt Moore, they’ve produced one top pitching prospect after another.

They can and do get full credit for their acumen on player development, but it’s sort of like watching the winners on a futures market in which the payoff is guaranteed: Step 1, plant the seeds for success. Step 2, the crops come in. Step 3? Profit. Add in James Shields, and a can’t-lose choice between Hellickson and Wade Davis, and you’ve got a starting pitching platform that allows for a lot of freedom of action everywhere else.

Perhaps the more interesting aspect of the Rays’ ability to stay in the running year after year is how they use the adaptability that rotation affords them. In the lineup and in the bullpen, they’re comfortable with moving parts where other contenders crave stability. Starting from the huge bullpen turnover from 2007 to 2008 that contributed so much to their big worst-to-first turnaround and a pennant, the Rays have had a different leader in saves every season. And if Fernando Rodney winds up with more saves than Kyle Farnsworth, that’ll be a five-year streak.

By avoiding any truly expensive or lasting commitments in the bullpen, they were free to grab Rafael Soriano when the Braves were temporarily embarrassed by his acceptance of their arbitration offer. They were disappointed by off-speed reliever Joe Nelson in 2009, but that didn’t frighten them away from adding Joel Peralta last winter after he broke through with a slo-mo splitter. It also didn't stop them from getting sinkerballer Burke Badenhop from the Marlins despite rarely cracking 90. The Rays treat relievers like cheap upside bets -- snarfing them up, riding those who pay off and dumping those who don’t.

In the lineup, that same flexibility has rewarded them. Certainly, they have their major star in Evan Longoria, but how they’ve assembled a cast around him is a playbook every club should follow. First baseman Carlos Pena went away for a year, but the Rays loaded up on single-season alternatives -- Dan Johnson, Casey Kotchman, a crash-test dummy TBNL -- while letting Pena bank $10 million in Cubs cash. Then they brought him back at their price after the market’s biggest bidders had used up their cash chasing Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and the like. Pena’s current $7.2 million salary, adjusted for inflation, is only $400,000 more than what he was making in 2008, when salary arbitration first started pumping up the price of employing him.

Pena’s not the only offensive pillar back in place, though. The Rays’ recent 6-2 run owes plenty to their getting B.J. Upton back from the DL and into the lineup. Now maybe Upton is the organization’s example of a disappointing homegrown product. But if you can step back from the expectations game, and set aside those daydreams that every year Upton would hit .300, slug .500, draw 90 walks and steal 40 bases ... you might notice that he has done all of those things, just never at the same time, and so what? If a nameless center fielder was belting 20 homers and stealing 30 bases for your team, you’d probably like the sound of that. It’s certainly something you can build around.

But because the expectation has always been that Upton will do more, be more, you might think too much of what he hasn’t done and lose sight of his value. Even his defense can leave you frustrated; as the new edition of John Dewan’s Fielding Bible notes, he’s among the leaders in both what Baseball Info Solutions terms good plays and misplays. That’s proof positive he’s exasperating in all phases of the game -- and still immensely valuable.

The trickle-down effects of Upton’s return are legion. Desmond Jennings moves to left. Having him in place means that all of the working parts that Joe Maddon uses to gain an advantage are back to moving around. Luke Scott and Matt Joyce can scare the bejeezus out of right-handed pitching, Ben Zobrist can start at second base and move wherever else, and the Rays can keep cranking out runs at a clip (4.8 runs per game) that puts them among the game’s elite -- behind just the Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox. That’s despite the absence of a single eight-figure salary.

The way the Rays are playing of late, they don’t need one, because money isn’t the measure of success, winning is. With a lineup that’s coming together and a rotation that will deliver winnable ballgames night after night, the Rays, once again -- and without the drama associated with the other AL powerhouses -- will be there come October, as they were last year.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Facing baseball’s top team in their ballpark Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays brought home run power at the plate and strikeouts on the mound to put away the Texas Rangers, 8-4. This marked the sixth consecutive win for the Rays, who have seemingly righted themselves after sputtering to a 4-5 record to start the season.

The Rays have managed to go 9-2 since then, mainly due to a potent offense that is fourth in the American League in runs scored. Evan Longoria has hit like an MVP candidate, currently sporting a .319/.437/.569 line with four home runs, including a three-run shot Friday. Desmond Jennings owns a nine-game hitting streak, during which he's hit .324, and B.J. Upton has come off the disabled list with a vengeance with a .788 OPS.

Newly acquired bats Carlos Pena and Luke Scott have made Rays fans forget the short, though productive, stints in Tampa Bay of Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman. Pena and Scott have already combined for nine home runs, more than one-third of the amount that Damon and Kotchman produced all of last year. For reference, the Rays have played 12.3 percent of their games so far, so it looks like these one-year deals on the heels of letting Damon and Kotchman walk could provide excess value.

Interestingly, the Rays are not utilizing the stolen base as the catalyst to their offensive production. Last season the Rays finished second in the majors in stolen bases, marking the first time since 2007 that they did not lead the league in the category. Entering last night, the Rays ranked 16th with 12 total steals. The Rays do have stolen-base threats in Jennings and Upton, but the Rays have been generating offense in a different manner than they are accustomed to -- with power.

The Rays have hit 27 home runs this year, tied for fourth in the majors. Longoria, Pena, Scott, and Matt Joyce have hit at least four long balls apiece. Behind them, Jennings and Ben Zobrist have three each. Those hitters comprise the Rays' 1-5 hitters against right-handed pitchers, as Joyce sits against southpaws. The impressive patience and power displayed by the Rays has been evident over their current win streak in that they have hit at least one home run in each of the past five games.

In addition to their offense, which was on display against Rangers lefty Matt Harrison on Friday night, the Rays have gotten a lift from their pitching over their past 10 games. Allowing just 2.9 runs per game has been a huge part of their 8-2 record over that span. Their run prevention has not all been pitching, however, as their defensive shifts have also proven to be effective. Adam Berry of MLB.com has a great article on the Rays and their shifts, along with the index cards they pull out for each hitter. The Rays currently rank second in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved with 19, nine more than the third-place Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Rays pride themselves on taking as many small advantages as possible, which is a testament to the quality of their front office, scouting and management. Signing players like Scott to a $6 million, one-year deal and moving starter Wade Davis to a bullpen role rather than trading him, are just two decisions that appear to be solid. Davis currently has a 1.86 ERA along with eight strikeouts and two walks in 9.2 innings out of the bullpen and was able to get out of a bases-loaded jam unscathed in the eighth inning of Friday’s victory.

The Rays will have to pitch better overall, specifically in the bullpen, over the course of the season. With the type of talent they possess and their excellent defense, their over-4.00 ERA should continue to decrease. With their offense scoring plenty of runs, improved pitching may make them the best team in baseball. But for now, that designation belongs to the team that is in the opposite dugout this weekend: the Rangers.

Ben Duronio writes about the Braves at Capitol Avenue Club. Follow him on Twitter.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Pitching, defense and three-run home runs? It’s a formula that has worked going back to the days of Earl Weaver and beyond. An inning into Saturday’s game, the Rays had all of that going for them: Designated hitter Luke Scott had already hammered a bomb off Boston's Clay Buchholz to plate a trio of runs, reigning Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson was on the mound, and nobody is more alertly creative and productive on defense than Joe Maddon’s ballclub.

Unfortunately, none of that mattered all that much in the next eight innings of action against the Red Sox. Boston’s bats hammered the Rays, hitting five home runs, and made their initial case for why they’ll still be able to score runs hand over fist without Carl Crawford or Jacoby Ellsbury. Rather than throw too much of a pity party for their life absent Ellsbury, just try to keep in mind that Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis provide an offensive platform that 29 other teams would be happy to work from. Counting out the Red Sox a week into the season or a half-inning into a ballgame is just silly; they’re still stacked.

What’s less silly is looking at the Rays’ challenges in the weeks and months to come. Tampa Bay's problem is that while the Red Sox opened up on offense, the Rays didn’t have the usual collection of moving parts to respond on offense or defense.

The Rays' pitching depth is the envy of the industry, but Joel Peralta has taken a series of beatings out of the bullpen en route to handing the closer’s job to Fernando Rodney. Maybe that will work out the way Kyle Farnsworth did last year, but Peralta’s not that far removed from his days as waiver bait, and Rodney’s reputation for flammability perhaps exceeds Farnsworth’s -- before last season.

The Rays being the Rays, they get a pass on running risks other teams might shrink from, but this year’s bullpen confection is still a soufflé with as much potential to flop as rise. Having one less body around proved expensive when a three-run game still in reach became a blowout in the eighth thanks to rookie Dane De La Rosa’s five-run debut against that Red Sox offense.

The other early issue in terms of reaping the downside of risk is that their offense is cranking less than most others in the early going, ranking just 10th in the American League in runs scored. That doesn’t mean that much in itself, because we’re still not even talking about two full weeks’ worth of action. It’s what you get when you wind up with Jeff Keppinger and Sean Rodriguez as everyday players.

That wasn’t part of any plan, but that’s the upshot of being without the flexibility of having Ben Zobrist moving around on the field to wherever he’s needed while Maddon plays matchup games on offense with bit parts like Rodriguez or Keppinger. They knew they wouldn’t get many runs out of Jose Molina or Jose Lobaton as their catchers, but that’s another slot you can’t count on in terms of offense, and another reason why the Rays have that much less margin for error in the early going. The Rays’ offense is the sort of high-flying act that can’t really afford to lose certain key regulars for a great length of time.

Which is why much will change for the better soon, once B.J. Upton comes back from the disabled list and returns to his spot in center field. The Rays won’t simply get the benefit of adding his bat to the everyday lineup or his glove to the defense. They’ll also reap the tactical in-game benefit of all of the situations in which Maddon will be able to use his valuable part-time contributors -- like Keppinger and Rodriguez -- to his advantage. Matt Joyce won’t have to face the left-handed pitchers he can’t hit. That’s not because of what Upton does and will do, but because of the multiple benefits the Rays get from having him healthy.

Taking a few chances on “extra guys” is not automatically bad -- far from it, especially when you’re dealing with budget handicaps as the Rays do. Taking a chance on Scott was an eminently worthwhile low-cost risk: After averaging 25 homers per season for three years for the Orioles, Scott’s injury-wracked 2011 brought him into the Rays’ orbit as far as his sale price as a free agent. If he gives the Rays’ lineup a third source of power from the left side beyond Carlos Pena and Joyce, you’ll have a lineup that gives opponents fits, just as it did in each of the past two years.

Add it up, and just like the bullpen, the Rays’ offense is a complicated proposition few other teams would risk. Handled as well as the Rays have and will, though, and it works … until you knock a key starter or two out of action for any great length of time. Expose their irregulars’ shortcomings, and the risk becomes one to the Rays’ bid for a postseason three-peat.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Hey, it's only one weekend but for one weekend New York Mets fans can rejoice in a simple statement of fact: the New York Yankees are 0-3 and the Mets are 3-0.

The Tampa Bay Rays' sweep of the Yankees was an important statement for the Rays, a team that has a brutal April schedule. The Rays follow up their series against the Yankees with a nine-game road trip to Detroit, Boston and Toronto, series at home against the Twins and Angels and then a three-game series in Texas. Not until they travel to Seattle and Oakland from April 30 through May 6 do they get an "easy" week. The Rays started 1-8 a year ago and managed to quickly dig out of that hole (they were 15-12 by the end of April), but this April schedule is a stiff challenge.

Jeremy Hellickson, everybody's favorite pitcher to regress to the mean in 2012, did exactly what he did in 2011: Limit hits even though he didn't strike out many batters. Pitching on his 26th birthday, Hellickson took a three-hit, 3-0 lead into the ninth. After walking Nick Swisher on a 3-2 pitch with two outs -- his 118th pitch of the game -- Joe Maddon finally brought in Fernando Rodney for the final out. Hellickson walked four and struck out four but the top three hitters in the Yankees lineup (Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano) went 0-for-11). As somebody wrote on Twitter, "Nobody induces more line-drive outs than Hellickson."

That was a knock against Hellickson's low average on balls in play in 2011 -- his .224 average was the lowest by a starting pitcher since 1988. But it's also a credit to Maddon and the Rays' defensive alignments. No team shifts and moves more on the defense than the Rays. You saw this result in several outs over the weekend, whether it was Mark Teixeira lining a ball to the second baseman playing in shallow right field or Alex Rodriguez grounding a ball over the second-base bag only to have the second baseman perfectly positioned.

Maddon will also move his players all over the batting order. Outside of Desmond Jennings in the leadoff spot and Evan Longoria in the three-hole, you never know how they'll line up. Carlos Pena hit second on Sunday and hit a third-inning home run off Phil Hughes. The Rays' lineup looks much stronger against right-handed pitching with southpaw power bats in Pena, Matt Joyce and Luke Scott. Teams would be wise to try and line up their left-handed starters against them.

Meanwhile, Joe Girardi looked like a kindergartner trying to take the SAT compared to Maddon. His intentional walk to Sean Rodriguez on Friday backfired when Pena hit a grand slam. He played Eduardo Nunez at shortstop on Saturday and his first-inning error led to two unearned runs. Look, Jeter will have to take days off throughout season and while you can understand the desire to sit him on turf, it's also just the second game of the season. Shouldn't Jeter be sitting against the Twins or Mariners or Orioles and not the Rays? And keep in mind that Nunez isn't any better on defense than Jeter; his Defensive Runs Saved in 2011 was minus-8 in 386 innings; Jeter's total was minus-14 in 1047 innings.

With Swisher battling a sensitive hammy, Girardi also put Raul Ibanez in right field on Sunday. This is akin to playing a fire hydrant out there. With two outs in the first Joyce blooped a ball to right field that should have been caught. Ibanez misplayed it into a triple, allowing Longoria to score the game's first run.

The Yankees travel to Baltimore on Monday, with Ivan Nova facing Brian Matusz. Nova had a rough spring, giving up 31 hits and five home runs in 22.1 innings, although he did have a 17/3 SO/BB ratio. The Yankees are 0-3 and while it's fun to pretend they are panicking, that's not really the case. This series was more about Tampa Bay doing everything right. But it is the Yankees, and when they start 0-3 that's not how most fans will view it.

* * * *

As for the Mets, they completed their sweep of the Braves as Jonathon Niese took a no-hitter into the seventh. The Mets nearly blew a 7-0 lead but held on for the 7-5 victory as Frank Francisco picked up his third save.

I watched a few innings of this game and one thing the Mets' hitters do is work the count very well. Atlanta starter Mike Minor threw 104 pitches in just five innings. On Saturday, Jair Jurrjens threw 102 pitches and didn't get out of the fifth. Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy may not have a lot of power at the top of the order but they're pesky, make you throw strikes and should go a nice job of getting on base. On Saturday, each saw 23 pitches in five plate appearances; on Sunday, they saw a combined 40 pitches as Tejada went 4-for-5 and Murphy 2-for-5.

It's easy to forget, but the Mets did lead the NL East in runs scored in 2011 -- despite playing in Citi Field. They did this with a lot of a patience as they led the NL in walks drawn. Yes, Jose Reyes is gone and Carlos Beltran was part of that production, but the Mets don't have any easy outs in the lineup. All eight regulars (Andres Torres landed on the DL with a calf injury after the season opener) are capable of posting a .340 OBP and that means the Mets could once again end up leading the division in runs.

Like the Rays, the Mets face a tough April: Washington, at Philly, at Atlanta, San Francisco, Miami, at Colorado, at Houston. Let's not overreact to three games and declare the Mets contenders, but I don't believe they're the 95-loss team that many fans believe. The Mets drew 27,855 on Easter Sunday, 14,000 short of capacity. It will take more than a 3-0 start to turns Mets fans into believers, but at least they can spend a few days having fun at the Yankees' expense.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

If my math is correct, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees still have 17 games against each other. The Rays and Boston Red Sox have 18 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees have 18 games against each other. And all three teams have 18 against the Toronto Blue Jays.

That's 107 more games of American League East mini-wars, in which every game will be treated as the one that may win -- or lose -- a division championship.

Friday's game at the Trop was as interesting as a regular-season game can be, with a hundred little moves worth discussing and dissecting. Rays manager Joe Maddon was already in midseason form, calling for a squeeze bunt, pinch-hitters and lefty/righty matchups out of the bullpen. Yankees counterpart Joe Girardi went to his trusty binder in the bottom of the first inning and got burned. And the greatest closer of all time failed to do his job. Yes, I'll take more, thank you very much.

A few quick highlights about a game you could write 3,000 words about:

• With two out in the first and runners on second and third, Girardi had CC Sabathia walk Sean Rodriguez to pitch to Carlos Pena. Girardi has a bit of unusual obsession with the intentional walk. Sabathia, for example, issued 17 IBBs over the previous three seasons. Compare that to guys like Justin Verlander (0), Cliff Lee (3), Roy Halladay (5) or Jon Lester (0). Anyway, while it's true Pena struggles against left-handers (.133 in 2011, .179 in 2010), it's also true that he's a very patient hitter willing to take a walk. Juicing the bases forces Sabathia to throw a strike. Pena worked the count to 3-2 and drilled a fastball for a grand slam. An intentional walk on Opening Day with two out in the first inning? Just ... well, wow.
• Down 6-5, the Rays had a great chance to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth when they put runners on the corners with no outs against David Robertson. Maddon sent Stephen Vogt in to hit for Elliot Johnson, Vogt's first major league at-bat. Robertson struck him out on four pitches -- two 92 mph cutters and a fastball up sandwiched around a curveball in the dirt. With Jose Molina up and a 1-1 count, Maddon sent the runners ... except Molina missed the squeeze sign and instead fouled off the pitch. Maddon, with the proverbial guts of a cat burglar, went right back to the squeeze, but Molina fouled it off for strike three. Robertson than fanned Matt Joyce to escape the jam.
• Mariano Rivera entered to close out it out. Desmond Jennings singled to right-center and Ben Zobrist tripled to deeper right-center. Girardi -- remember, he loves the intentional walk -- gave free passes to Evan Longoria and Luke Scott to load the bases. Once again, Girardi left his pitcher with no margin for error. Rivera fell behind 3-1 to Rodriguez but came back to strike him out, bringing up Pena. He got the count to 1-2 and the strikeout-prone Pena looked like a dead duck. Instead, Rivera threw a meaty pitch over the middle of the plate and Pena lofted a deep fly off the base of the wall in left-center. Game over. His first hit ever off Rivera. "Oh, yeah. [I was] very aware of it," Pena said. "His ball moves so much that your eyes deceive you." But Pena's eyes mapped this Rivera cutter, giving him a three-hit, five-RBI day. And as Pena did a postgame on-field interview, B.J. Upton delivered a shaving cream pie in the face that tasted just right.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

In 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays won 91 games, with that 91st win serving as one of the more memorable in baseball history.

They scored 707 runs and allowed 614, which projects to ... 91 wins. So they hit that win-loss record on the head. What can we project for 2012? Let's do a position-by-position analysis.

Catcher: Jose Molina
John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach and assorted backups hit .194/.274/.333 in 2011, so of course the Rays brought in Jose Molina -- for his defense. Molina turns 37 in June and has never batted 300 times in a season, so how much he actually ends up playing remains to be seen. Robinson Chirinos, Jose Labatan and Stephen Vogt are battling for the backup. Offensively, this crew may not be much of an improvement; I'll say an additional seven runs over the 45 runs created a year ago. More on Molina's defense later.

First base: Carlos Pena
Casey Kotchman didn't score or drive in many runs but did get on base (.378) so at least he wasn't a rally killer. Rays first basemen created about 83 runs. Carlos Pena takes over and even hitting .225 with the Cubs he created about 86 runs. Projection systems are calling for a slight decline for Pena as he moves to Tampa. Give him 75 runs plus a few more from his backups and I'll call this one a wash.

Second base: Ben Zobrist
In his three seasons as a regular, Zobrist has been all over the place: a .948 OPS in 2009, .699 in 2010, .822 in 2011. He created about 100 runs in 2011. With weight given to that 2010 performance he's projected to decline a bit. Minus nine runs.

Third base: Evan Longoria
Longoria missed most of April with an oblique strain and then posted a career-low .850 OPS despite mashing 31 home runs in 483 at-bats. Rays third basemen created about 95 runs (85 by Longoria). With an expected spike in his BABIP (.239 in 2011), Longoria's numbers should improve across the board. Plus 15 runs.

Shortstop: Sean Rodriguez/Reid Brignac/Elliot Johnson
Another position where the Rays received little production: A collective .193/.256/.282, good for 35 runs created. Amazing that Tampa made the playoffs with two positions hitting under .200. The production can only improve, although how much depends on who gets the playing time. Brignac has the best glove so will get another chance. ZiPS projects a .239/.281/.338 batting line. Not great, but still better. Overall, let's say an improvement of 12 runs.

Left field; Desmond Jennings
This was supposed to be Johnny Damon's position a year ago but he ended up as the DH after Manny Ramirez flunked out. Sam Fuld got most of the playing time early on before yielding to Jennings. Overall, the Rays got 85 runs from left field. ZiPS is pessimistic about Jennings, projecting a .259/.339/.392 line, which is about 83 runs over 670 plate appearances. Other systems project slightly better numbers. Let's give the Rays five additional runs.

Center field: B.J. Upton
He could improve, I suppose, but logic dictates more of the same. No change.

Right field: Matt Joyce
It will be interesting to see if Joe Maddon gives Joyce a chance to play full-time against left-handers this year or if he'll run Zobrist out to right field against southpaws. Joyce cooled off after his All-Star first half. He should put up similar overall numbers. No change.

Designated hitter: Luke Scott
Damon and assorted friends produced about 87 runs. If Scott matches his 2010 numbers with the Orioles (.284/.368/.535) he'll be a big step up. But those were also his career-best numbers and he'll be 34 in June. I see only a slight improvement of three runs.

Let's compare the 2011 rotation to projected numbers for 2012, cribbed from various projection systems.



2011: 162 starts, 1058 innings, 438 runs
2012: 155 starts, 995 innings, 430 runs

We'll add in the seven missing starts at 42 innings and 20 runs allowed (4.3 per nine innings), bringing the 2012 totals to 1037 innings and 450 runs allowed. That's 20 runs more than 2011 in slightly fewer innings. Is that fair? The projection systems are understandably not completely bullish on James Shields. While he had a 2.82 ERA in 2011, he's also a pitcher with a 3.96 career ERA. His .258 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was eighth-lowest among starters; and while Tampa's defense was arguably the best in baseball, they've had a good defense in previous seasons and Shields' BABIPs didn't approach .258. I'm a little surprised the systems don't foresee a better year from Price. In 2010, he had a 2.72 ERA and 3.42 FIP (fielding independent ERA); in 2011, a 3.49 ERA and 3.32 FIP, albeit with a much better SO/BB ratio. Bill Baer wrote about Hellickson and the reason he's projected to not match the sterling 2.95 ERA he posted as a rookie. As for Moore, the projection systems are conservative by nature so they're not going to match the lofty expectation fans have. It certainly wouldn't be shocking to see Moore post a sub-3.00 ERA over 30 starts. It's also not fair to expect that.

One other issue: Jeff Niemann is actually projected to be better than Wade Davis. I would suggest that if Davis does allow 4.7 runs per nine innings -- not awful, mind you -- Niemann will get a shot at some point. In other words, I think the Davis slot will be slightly better, either because he pitches better or Niemann gets some starts. So I do think it's fair to knock a few runs off the overall total. For now, let's say the rotation allows 15 more runs than a year ago. But more on that in a minute.

The Tampa bullpen in 2011 only had to pitch 391 innings, fewest in the AL. It posted a 3.73 ERA ERA, sixth in the league, allowing 176 runs. I'm slightly skeptical the pen will be as good, but they do have a variety of options, including using Davis or Niemann in a prominent role. I'm going to say no change for the bullpen, other than adding an additional 21 innings and nine additional runs allowed.

So that brings the totals to:

Offense: +33 runs scored, for a new total of 740 runs scored
Pitching: +24 runs allowed, for a new total of 638 runs allowed

We mentioned Jose Molina's defense earlier. Overall, the 2011 Rays easily rated as baseball's best defensive squad, 25 runs better than the No. 2 team, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved. The major changes are Pena for Kotchman at first (both rated about league average) and Molina at catcher. Molina's added value comes in his ability to frame pitches, which studies indicate he's one of the best in the majors at -- maybe as much as 15 to 20 runs over an average catcher. We'll be conservative and subtract 10 runs off the defensive ledger. The rest of the defense should be similar.

So we now get:

Offense: 740 runs scored
Defense: 628 runs allowed

That creates an expected winning percentage of .575 -- or 93 wins.

OK, back to the pitching for a final word. Let's be slightly more optimistic. Let's take 10 runs off the totals for Shields, Price, Hellickson and Moore -- an additional 40 fewer runs allowed. It's certainly a reasonable proposition. This now gives the Rays 588 runs allowed and .604 winning percentage.

Which translates to 98 wins.

Of course, it's not quite that simple. This little analysis doesn't factor in everything -- the change in the quality of divisional opponents, for example. But one reason I like the Rays to beat their Vegas over/under line of 87.5 wins is that as a young team they're a pretty safe team to project. Injuries shouldn't be a major factor. They have depth in the rotation if somebody does go down. Yes, there is a little uncertainty in the bullpen and catcher and shortstop could still end up as offensive black holes, but this looks like a playoff team to me.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

The Cleveland Indians once traded CC Sabathia to acquire Matt LaPorta.

They picked up Russ Canzler for cash.

When the 2012 season opens, it's likely that Canzler will be the team's starting first baseman ahead of LaPorta.

Canzler is a soon-to-be 26-year-old minor league vet who lacks the prospect pedigree of LaPorta, but he's turned himself into a guy who should be able to contribute at the big league level after hitting .314/.401/.530 at Triple-A Durham. Among International League players with 200 plate appearances, only Trevor Plouffe and Ryan Lavarnway had a higher OPS. Canzler played first, third, left and right for Durham, although his fielding percentage indicates he's stretched at third base. But with LaPorta coming off another disappointing season (.247/.299/.412), I would guess Canzler will be given the opportunity to win the first-base job. (A platoon isn't really feasible since both hit right-handed.)

I actually thought Canzler would be a nice platoon with Carlos Pena in Tampa, considering Pena hit .133 against left-handers in 2011. But the Jeff Keppinger signing made it tough to find room for Canzler on the roster.

Assuming the Rays go with 12 pitchers, their 13 position players probably look like this:

C: Jose Molina (R), Jose Lobaton (S) or Robinson Chirinos (R)
1B: Carlos Pena (L)
2B: Ben Zobrist (S), Jeff Keppinger (R)
3B: Evan Longoria (R)
SS: Sean Rodriguez (R), Reid Brignac (L) or Elliot Johnson (S)
OF: Matt Joyce (L), B.J. Upton (R), Desmond Jennings (R), Luke Scott (L), Sam Fuld (L) or Brandon Guyer (R)

If Joe Maddon wants to platoon with Joyce, he can slide Zobrist to right field and play Keppinger at second. That would probably give Fuld the edge over Guyer for the fourth outfield position, since he could spell Jennings against tough right-handers. The other option would be keep Guyer as a possible platoon partner for Joyce (or Scott at DH) and use Keppinger at first base against right-handers. And yet another option is to see if Brignac can win the starting shortstop job on a full-time basis, with Rodriguez serving as the starter at shortstop or first base against left-handers (over his career, he's hit .260/.360/.422 against left-handers but just .212/.278/.377 against righties). Brignac and Johnson are both regarded as superior fielders to Rodriguez, so if Brignac can at least hit like he did in 2010 (.256/.307/.385), the job will be his to win.

Anyway, as always Maddon has roster flexibility. I don't like the idea of Pena as a full-time first baseman, but it looks like the Rays will have options to ensure that he doesn't have to play every day against left-handers.

The Tampa Bay Rays dug through their pockets for spare nickels, took their metal detector to the Florida beaches, maybe auctioned off Dan Johnson's home run ball and somehow came up with $7.5 million to sign free-agent first baseman Carlos Pena.

I love it.

Pena brings a power bat to the middle of the Tampa Bay order and while he doesn't come without risk, the addition of a guy who can hit 25 to 30 home runs, draw 90 walks and play a good first base helps solidify a lineup that needed another big bat. Here's a look at what Tampa's lineup may look like:

LF Desmond Jennings
CF B.J. Upton
2B Ben Zobrist
3B Evan Longoria
RF Matt Joyce/Brandon Guyer
1B Carlos Pena/Russ Canzler
DH Luke Scott
SS Sean Rodriguez/Reid Brignac
C Jose Molina

Other bench options include Sam Fuld, Elliot Johnson, Justin Ruggiano plus a backup catcher. I included Guyer and Canzler in the lineups because I believe Joe Maddon will have to maximize the versatility to get the most out of this roster.

With Pena, that includes the suggestion that he become a platoon player. His overall line in 2011 was dragged down by an anemic .133 average against left-handed pitching. But he hit .255/.388/.504 against right-handers. Even with the poor splits against his lefties, his overall .357 on-base percentage would have ranked second on the Rays in 2011, behind only the now-departed first baseman Casey Kotchman. Minor league veteran Canzler would be a nice, cheap platoon for Pena. He hit .314/.401/.530 at Triple-A Durham, but the key is he's not just a first baseman: He played third, right, left and first for the Bulls. In other words, a perfect Maddon bench player.

Like Pena, Joyce probably needs to be platooned; he has an .867 career OPS against righties but .601 against lefties (.657 in 2011 in 101 plate appearances). But Guyer provides another nice platoon option. Like Canzler, he's an older minor leaguer, but he can hit, .312/.384/.521 at Durham, including .346 against lefties. Most managers are averse to using platoons these days because their benches are already limited due to the desire to carry 12 or 13 pitchers. But Maddon has been using multi-position platoons for years in Tampa; it's just another reason he's the best manager in the game today.

There is a risk with Pena. He hit 28 home runs in 2011 playing in hitter-friendly Wrigley Field; he'll move to a tougher home run park at the Trop. Pena, however, did hit much better on the road in 2011 (.855 OPS versus .780) and if you look at his home run distances at Hit Tracker Online, Pena doesn't hit many cheap home runs. When he connects it's going out of just about any ballpark. Of his 28 bombs, only two were classified as "just enough."

As for Kotchman, I would think he'll find a job somewhere after hitting .306 with a .378 OBP. But that's no guarantee; despite those numbers, Rays first basemen (Kotchman played 146 games) finished last in the majors in both runs scored (52) and RBIs (51). The Indians remain the only team with an obvious first-base opening as they don't appear committed to Matt LaPorta; maybe the Yankees or Tigers consider him for a DH role.

The Rays may have been waiting to see if Pena or Kotchman fell to them, but I think they signed the better player. If Pena and Scott can combine for 45 to 50 home runs (the Rays got just 28 out of first base and DH in 2011) this is a lineup that will outscore last season's total of 707 runs.

This is not the kind of January news we want to read about: Detroit Tigers designated hitter Victor Martinez tore his ACL during offseason workouts and may be lost for the season.

After signing Martinez to a four-year, $50 million contract before the 2011 season, the emergence of Alex Avila meant Martinez spent most of the season as the team's designated hitter as opposed to catching (he started 26 games behind the plate). The Tigers may have overpaid slightly for a DH, but Martinez at least delivered an excellent season, hitting .330/.380/.470, ranking fourth in the AL in batting average and eighth in on-base percentage.

Importantly, the switch-hitting Martinez provided a lefty bat in a lineup that swung too much to the right side with Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Delmon Young, Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez and Ryan Raburn.

If there's good news for the Tigers, there are at least several decent options out there in free agency. One-time Tigers first baseman Carlos Pena could provide a nice alternative, even improving the team's defense if Jim Leyland is willing to shift Cabrera to DH. Pena needs a platoon partner, but did have a .388 OBP and .504 slugging percentage against righties in 2011. Johnny Damon, another ex-Tiger, would also fit in nicely at DH.

The other option is to move Young to his best position -- DH. Getting his glove off the field would be addition by subtraction, and the Tigers could play an outfield of Jackson in center, Brennan Boesch in right, and Raburn and Andy Dirks or Clete Thomas platooning in left. Leyland is one of the best at moving players around the diamond and in and out of the lineup, so if anybody can adapt to a revolving lineup of starters, it's Leyland. Cuban free agent Yoennis Cespedes is another -- more expensive -- possibility. The Tigers have been linked to him from the beginning and they could certainly use more athleticism in the lineup. With Jackson entrenched in center, Cespedes (another right-handed bat) could play right with Boesch handling left.

Still, it's a blow for the Tigers -- although as the Cardinals proved in 2011 with Adam Wainwright, there is no such thing as a lethal blow. I do wonder if this makes it even more likely they'll swing a trade for another starting pitcher, as has been rumored. Matt Garza, anyone?

Some stuff to check out from across the SweetSpot network ...

• There is a debate about Adam Jones' ability to improve, considering he drew just 29 walks last season. Jon Shepherd of Camden Depot looks at Jones' potential and compares him to similar players through age 25. The good news: He could still turn into a hitter like Aramis Ramirez or Dale Murphy. (We mean mid-20s Dale Murphy.)
• Redleg Nation writers with their memories of Barry Larkin.
• As Ben Duronio points outs, there is a major problem with Jason Heyward's swing that needs to be corrected.
• Paul Boye at Crashburn Alley ask: Will this be the farewell voyage for Cole Hamels in Philadelphia?"
• Mets Today looks at the Mets' possible Opening Day roster and comes up with 23 guys with jobs, leaving two openings.
• Marlins Daily poses an interesting question: Is Josh Johnson so much of an injury risk that the Marlins should consider trading him?
• Royals Authority is doing a great job at analyzing each player on the 40-man roster. Here's the look at new reliever Jonathan Broxton. And here was the look at Eric Hosmer.
• The Red Sox signed Aaron Cook and Troy Patterson examines whether Cook has a chance to help in Boston.
• Pro Ball NW makes a good point about Casper Wells: He was putting up some nice numbers until Brandon Morrow drilled him in the nose in mid-August. If he's healthy, he may be better than you think.
• Would the A's really be interested in Johnny Damon? Jason Wojciechowski of Beaneball.org hopes not.
• Nick Nelson has some thoughts on the Twins' payroll and the club's decision to trim it a bit this year.
• Carlos Pena or Casey Kotchman? Will either first baseman end up in Cleveland?
• Chris Quick on the Giants' two-year extension with Ryan Vogelsong. Bay City Ball is also running down their list of top Giants' prospects. Here are Nos. 10 through six.
• Forget 2012, it's never too early to start thinking about 2013. And the Dodgers could have as many as 10 candidates for the starting rotation.

Some thoughts on the big free agents remaining not named Prince Fielder.

Johnny Damon: He's 277 hits away from 3,000 but currently scraping for a job. Tampa Bay apparently signed Luke Scott as its designated hitter and with Desmond Jennings taking over in left field, there won't be room for Damon in Tampa. While he still has something left in the tank -- his .743 OPS ranked ninth in the AL among 20 left fielders and DHs with at least 400 appearances -- there just aren't teams looking for a 38-year-old left fielder with a noodle arm. One possibility: the Orioles. With Nolan Reimold in left and Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds slated for third and first, they could sign Damon as their DH.

Edwin Jackson: A Scott Boras client allegedly seeking a five-yeal deal (good luck, Scott!), Jackson is what he is: A durable but mediocre starter. He's one of just 22 pitchers to start 150 games over the past five seasons, but only A.J. Burnett and Livan Hernandez own a worse ERA among those 22. Teams appear to be viewing Jackson correctly: A short-term placeholder, but not a guy you want to make a long-term investment on. He's apparently talked to the Yankees, but I could see him landing in a place like Detroit, allowing the Tigers to give Jacob Turner more seasoning in Triple-A.

Roy Oswalt: Yes, he missed time with a bad back in 2011, but it was the first season he hasn't started at least 30 games since 2003. He's said he's willing to sign a one-year deal to prove he's healthy, so he's a low-risk signing. I still like him: He's one season removed from leading National League starters in lowest WHIP and he had a better SO/BB ratio in 2011 than C.J. Wilson, Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester or Mark Buehrle. Here's one red flag, especially if a team like the Red Sox or Yankees is interested: Oswalt has spent most of his career in the NL Central facing a lot of weak lineups. His career ERA is 3.21, but 3.70 in interleague games. If he's not the pitcher he once was, that could translate to an ERA in the mid-4 range pitching in the AL East.

Carlos Pena: He can still mash against right-handers (.255/.388/.502 in 2011), but really needs to be a platoon player. Trouble is, most teams can't afford to carry a platoon at first base, not when you carry 12 or 13 relievers. (Now, a smart team would realize that carrying an extra bat can be more valuable than an extra LOOGY, but that's a different essay.) The Indians still seem like a good fit and at this point, Pena won't be busting their budget. The Rays may still be in play, although the Scott signing certainly makes that less likely. By the way, only five players have hit more home runs the past five seasons than Pena: Ryan Howard, Fielder, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera.

Hiroki Kuroda: He's allegedly seeking $12 to $14 million per season and he just may be worth it. He's put up solid numbers with the Dodgers despite some mediocre defenses behind him. His fastball velocity has averaged 92 mph for four years in the majors, so he's shown no signs of decline despite his age (37 in February). He won't give you much more than 200 innings, but he could be a big difference-maker for a pennant contender. Do the Angels spend even more money and have Kuroda replace Jerome Williams as the No. 5 starter? That may be overkill, but aren't the Angels all-in at this point?

Francisco Cordero: I'd be vary wary. If you look at the 37 saves and 2.45 ERA you may be mislead. But most front offices are smarter than that these days, so they'll look at the low strikeout rate (5.4 K's per nine), drop in fastball velocity (from 95 in 2009 to 94.5 in 2010 to 93 last season) and see an aging pitcher in decline, even if he did throw his changeup more last season and walk fewer batters. Yes, he's a Proven Closer, but there just doesn't seem like there's much interest in $8 million relievers this offseason. Good luck, Francisco. I don't think you'll be getting that much.

The American League Central may have a reputation as baseball's skinflint division, but such is not the case: The White Sox, Twins and Tigers each had payrolls over $100 million in 2011 and ranked in the top 10 of highest-salaried ballclubs.

The problem was that two of those three teams didn't get much for their money. Considering the issues in Chicago and Minnesota, and the youth and unwillingness to spend big in Cleveland and Kansas City, Detroit will enter 2012 as the heavy favorite to win the division -- no matter what happens in the offseason. But even the Tigers are far from a sure thing and if the Indians can get good health from Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore in 2012, plus strong seasons from youngsters Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall, their offense could be dramatically improved.

But that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's a quick look at some action plans and items of interest for the five teams.

Detroit Tigers

1. Third base (Brandon Inge)

With Inge plummeting to a .197 average, Detroit's third-base production was among the worst in the majors. The team has already been linked to free agent Aramis Ramirez and trade discussions with Angels on Maicer Izturis. Both would be big upgrades over Inge, who still has one year remaining on his contract. The dark horse possibility: With Carlos Guillen ($13 million) and Magglio Ordonez ($10 million) off the books, the Tigers pursue Jose Reyes to fill their leadoff void, moving Jhonny Peralta to third base.

Likely solution: As much I love the Reyes idea, Ramirez to Detroit seems like a logical fit. The negatives are Ramirez's lack of range and Detroit's need for a little more athleticism in the lineup.



2. Middle relief

By the postseason, Jim Leyland was down to two relievers he trusted: Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit. Al Alburquerque had a strong rookie season out of nowhere and Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth provide rare power lefty arms, but Albuquerque and Schlereth still have trouble throwing strikes. The Tigers could go after a low-cost veteran like LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Gonzalez or Darren Oliver, or maybe make a trade pitch for White Sox lefty Matt Thornton, although it seems unlikely Chicago would trade Thornton to a division rival.

Likely solution: A veteran righty-hander, with the Tigers counting on improvement from Coke and Schlereth.

3. A left-handed bat.

The Tigers missed Brennan Boesch's stick in the playoffs, as Victor Martinez and the hobbled Alex Avila were the only threats from the left side (granted, Don Kelly hit a big home run). Boesch's return will help, but Detroit could use a lefty bat to help balance out the lineup.

Likely solution: Andy Dirks may given another shot at that third/fourth outfielder job after hitting .251/.296/.406 as a rookie. But what about Rockies left fielder Seth Smith, who is on the trade block? His career .518 slugging percentage against righties has been bolstered a bit by Coors Field, but he's a solid hitter who could platoon with Ryan Raburn in left, or allow Raburn to play some at second base.

Cleveland Indians

1. Find a left fielder who can hit.

Michael Brantley is a decent asset -- but as a center fielder. The plan to use Brantley as an everyday left fielder was never a great one to begin with, as he's never going to pop many balls over the fence. Brantley, Austin Kearns, Shelley Duncan and Travis Buck all started at least 20 games in left; Jared Head started six games there. As a group, Cleveland's left fielders hit a miserable .233 with seven home runs; only Baltimore and Minnesota received a lower OPS from their left fielders.

Likely solution: Signing Grady Sizemore doesn't necessarily push Brantley back to a starting role in left field. He's best used as a fourth outfielder and Sizemore insurance. Michael Cuddyer may end up getting priced out of Cleveland's range, so how former Twins teammate Jason Kubel? He can play left and step in as designated hitter when Travis Hafner suffers his inevitable breakdown.

2. Find at least one more starter.

Right now, the Indians can only count on Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez for their rotation. Carlos Carrasco is out for the season following Tommy John surgery, Fausto Carmona was terrible and even Josh Tomlin is a question mark after the league caught up to him in the second half (5.26 ERA).

Likely solution: Jeanmar Gomez has been roughed up in two stints in the majors (146 hits in 116 innings), but his Triple-A numbers were solid, if unspectacular. He'll be given another chance in spring training to battle David Huff for a rotation spot.

3. If not Matt LaPorta, who plays first base?

The big prospect acquired in the CC Sabathia deal, LaPorta just hasn't hit as expected, posting a .299 on-base percentage in 2011. The Indians seem ready to punt on LaPorta, who turns 27 in January so isn't even that young. Carlos Santana ended up playing a lot of first base down the stretch, but let's hope he's kept behind the plate, where his hitting value would be maximized.

Likely solution: If free agent Carlos Pena lowers his price, he's a possibility, and the Indians reportedly talked with Houston about Brett Wallace. I'm not sure Wallace is much of an upgrade over LaPorta, but at least he's younger. Casey Kotchman could fit nicely here as lower-cost alternative after posting a .378 OBP with Tampa. And hey, he's only two years older than LaPorta.

Chicago White Sox

1. What do you do with Adam Dunn and Alex Rios?

Dunn hit .159 with a .569 OPS. Rios hit .227 with a .613 OPS. Dunn was the least-valuable position player in baseball, according to Baseball-Reference.com, while Rios was seventh-worst. They made $24 million in 2011 and will make a combined $26 million in 2012. Both are signed through 2014.

Likely solution: General manager Kenny Williams will be busy during the winter meetings, perhaps shopping around guys like Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Matt Thornton, looking for some sort of backup plan to these two pieces of junk. The 40-man roster currently includes Alejandro De Aza, who probably deserves a chance to play somewhere after a nice run (if over his head) last season. Let's put it this way: he can produce an OPS higher than .613.

2. Third base (Brent Morel)

After struggling all season, hitting .250 with just two home runs and seven walks in 328 at-bats through August, Morel suddenly changed his approach in September, got more patient and swung for the fences. He hit just .224 the final month, but with eight home runs and 15 walks. Was it a legitimate improvement, or merely feasting off September tired arms and rookie call-ups?

Likely solution: Morel's hot September earns him another shot.

3. The new manager

This isn't so much an action plan, as a big question mark. Robin Ventura has no previous managerial experience, but the good sign for the White Sox is that respected pitching coach Don Cooper is still around to handle the pitching staff.

Likely solution: If Dunn and Rios stink it up again, it won't matter how well Ventura transitions into the job -- he'll be doomed.

Kansas City Royals

1. Fix the rotation

The Royals had a 4.82 ERA from their starters; only Baltimore was worse in the American League.

Likely solution: The Royals already made a move here, trading Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. The club also re-signed Bruce Chen. With the signing of Jonathan Broxton, and the emergence of rookie relievers Greg Holland, Louis Coleman and Tim Collins in 2011, fellow 2011 rookie Aaron Crow will be given a shot at the rotation. I have my doubts it will work: Crow walked 31 in 62 innings out of the bullpen and left-handed hitters tagged him for a .311 average and .538 slugging percentage. There's a reason he struggled in the minors as a starter in 2010 (5.73 ERA). He has a great arm, but won't be able to rely on his fastball/slider combo as a starter.

2. Second base (Chris Getz)

Royals second basemen posted a .301 OBP and .636 OPS (26th in the majors) in 2011.

Likely solution: Rookie Johnny Giavotella played the final two months there and hit .247 with a .649 OPS. He'll head into spring training as the favorite to win the job. He hit .338/.390/.481 at Triple-A, so the batting potential is there: Bill James projects him to hit .295/.342/.419.

3. Center field (empty -- Cabrera traded)

The Royals were smart to deal Cabrera after his career season.

Likely solution: Lorenzo Cain, acquired from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade, will finally get a chance to play after spending 2011 in Triple-A. Cain is old for a guy still considered a prospect -- he turns 26 in April -- so he should be a polished product by now. He showed some power for the first time in his career, hitting 16 home runs for Omaha while batting .312. He doesn't walk much, so won't be a star, but should come closing to matching Cabrera's 2011 production.

Minnesota Twins

1. The M & M boys

After 2011's train wreck -- the club's first 90-loss season since 2000 (and at 99 losses, the most the 1982 Twins lost 102) -- it seems pretty clear this team will be dead in the water again unless Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau get healthy and regain their All-Star status. But they also can't assume these guys are going to play 140-plus games.

Likely solution: Obviously, the Twins need a better backup plan for Mauer than giving .167-hitting Drew Butera 250 plate appearances. They already accomplished with the smart signing of Ryan Doumit to a one-year deal for $3 million. Doumit can catch or play right field, but his bat is good enough to warrant a regular place in the lineup even when he's not behind the plate. Of course, he's also been injury-prone throughout his career. Prospect Chris Parmalee, who impressed in a September call-up, gives the team a potentially decent backup option for Morneau as well.

2. Right field: Empty (Michael Cuddyer, free agent)

For all the attention Cuddyer is getting, let's remember that he's really just a complementary bat on a good team. Unfortunately, considering some of the other outfielders the Twins tried last season -- Rene Tosoni, Jason Repko, Trevor Plouffe -- you realize they had nobody in the upper levels of the system.

Likely solution: Doumit may factor into their plans here, but regardless, the Twins need another bat to play a corner or DH. Smith is a trade option and free agent Josh Willingham is another possibility.

3. Closer: Empty (Matt Capps and Joe Nathan, free agents)

Nathan signed with Texas while GM Terry Ryan recently told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that it's likely Capps could return.

Likely solution: Capps was terrible last year, allowing 10 home runs in 65.2 innings while striking out just 4.7 hitters per nine innings. Two years ago, he had a 5.80 ERA. I can't fathom why any team would want to make Capps its closer. Sadly, however, the rest of the Minnesota bullpen is nearly as uninspiring (as is the rotation, but I don't have room to get to them here), but Capps throws strikes and there's nothing the Twins love more than a pitcher who throws strikes (velocity are ability to miss bats don't seem to be a factor). There's no reason for this team to spend big money on one of the remaining free-agent closers, so it probably will be Capps or lefty Glen Perkins.

Taking my own fandom back a ways, there were some guys who were flat-out fun to root for because you could anticipate they’d do one of three things at home plate: homer, whiff or walk. Rob Deer was a paragon of these virtues, doing one of these three things 49.1 percent of the time, and few things beat the relative certainty that when the Deer came to the plate, you’d be feeling a breeze one way or another.

Deer was truly remarkable because he was playing at a time when strikeouts were much less common. These days, after we’ve witnessed almost the entirety of Russell Branyan’s career, it would take a month of 4-3 grounders to get Branyan below delivering one of the Three True Outcomes -- walking, whiffing or whomping -- 50 percent of the time.

That said, if you’re one of those people who loves your action to come at home plate -- and the way the game’s broadcast with it tunnel-minded focus on pitcher-batter showdowns, how can you not be? -- then this is the category for you; the batters who have done the most to take matters into their own hands, and keep defenses almost altogether unbothered by the outcomes. Consider these the hitters who do the things that don’t depend on defense, the guys who deliver on the things that are virtually Voros McCracken-proof: They take ball four, they whiff or they deliver a souvenir.

This year’s top 10 leaderboard so far provides plenty of players you’d consider the usual suspects, using 400 plate appearances as an initial cutoff:


Now, because of the indignity associated with the leader, you may not consider this something to be proud of. Adam Dunn has turned his job description -- designated hitter -- into something of an oxymoron, and if you want to be a stickler and hand the Three True Outcomes crown to someone about to qualify for the batting title, that disqualifies The Mighty Wind of the Windy City, what with his losing playing time down the stretch. That leaves the AL Three True Outcomes crown to Baltimore’s Mark Reynolds, but happily Chicago’s windy dignity has a likely champion on the North Side in Carlos Pena. You can be sure that someone somewhere is relieved by this.

What happened to the Big Donkey on the South Side? Dunn may be over 50 percent, but that’s with a career rate of 49.3 percent, which might seem somewhat consistent. However, that’s not quite the case. His walk rate’s fine, but his ready whiffery crossed 30 percent of all of his plate appearances last year for the first time, and now it’s pushing 36 percent. That’s while his HR/FB percentage has dropped nearly 50 percent relative to his career average: He’s at 9.3 percent this year, compared to 18.1 percent on his career. However, even doubling his home-run total wouldn’t save his season. Before this year, per BIS the Cell had been relatively neutral to lefty power in the three years previous, so it isn’t like the park’s especially responsible. If there’s one thing that sticks out beyond the career-high strikeout rate, it’s that he’s popping up more often as well (as much as you can say so from Baseball-Reference’s IF/FB numbers), and if there’s one thing that’s the demeaning anathema of a Three True Outcomes monster, it’s skying a humiliatingly easy chance to the infield.

Beyond Dunn, Pena and Reynolds don’t seem in any danger of damaging their careers with this year’s work at the plate. Pena still carries a good defensive reputation, and he’s having a better year than he did in 2010 at the very least, in no small part because he’s facing fewer lefties this year in the NL Central than he’d had to put with as an everyday player in the AL East with the Rays, which comes in handy for a guy with a 150-penalty in OPS when facing his fellow lefties. Reynolds isn’t having an extraordinary season by his own lights, but because he’s north of the Mendoza Line while posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career since his rookie season in 2007, some might mistake it for a comeback as opposed to more of the same from the Big Hack Attack.

The rest of the names on the list show that there isn’t really a connection with bad things coming from what might otherwise be seen by some as too much of a good thing. Bautista and Granderson are legitimate MVP candidates after all, while Ryan Howard, whatever his limitations relative to his reputation, still cranks out a good amount of power on demand. Josh Willingham has been in vogue as an underrate power source outside the limelight for years, although this year’s walk rate is below 10 percent, helping mute some of the enthusiasm. Kelly Johnson is already a popular comeback pick for 2012, perhaps as a matter of guilt by association because Alex Anthopoulos is a sharp GM, but if his strikeout rate stays up around this year’s career-high 28 percent of all of his plate appearances, he’ll have that many fewer at-bats to get his long-expected BABIP bounce-back automatically predicted by some.

In the end, it makes for a mixed bunch. Reach beyond the top 10, and some of the names around 40 percent are fairly surprising. There are plenty of catchers, with Mike Napoli, J.P. Arencibia and Alex Avila out there, but you’ll also find more athletic guys similar to Granderson, with the Reds’ Drew Stubbs, the Rays’ B.J. Upton and Mr. 30-30 himself, Matt Kemp, all deserving shoutouts. In the end, the only thing these guys really have in common is the outcomes.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.