SweetSpot: Casey Blake

Michael CuddyerNorm Hall/Getty ImagesAt 33 years old, Michael Cuddyer will be one of the younger members of the Rockies lineup.
One of the most important things Bill James learned when he wrote his "Baseball Abstract" books back in the 1980s was that the aging curve for ballplayers was much different than commonly believed. A player’s peak didn’t run from 28 to 32, but more like 25 to 29, with 27 being the most typical peak season for ballplayers.

This doesn’t mean old teams can’t win. In fact, many of the best teams feature old lineups for fairly obvious reasons if you think about it: Old players are still around (for the most part) because they were good or great young players. Like a pitcher who throws in the upper 90s before losing velocity, great young players can lose a little value and still maintain success. The 2009 Yankees had five regulars who were at least 33 years old -- Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada -- and while none were at their peak level of ability they were still good enough to help that team win 103 games and the World Series.

But there's a fine line in the aging process. It's one thing to have A-Rod or Albert Pujols in their mid-30s; but what if your old players are, say, Marco Scutaro, Casey Blake and Michael Cuddyer?

Before we get to the Colorado Rockies, let's do a quick study. I looked at all playoff teams over the past five seasons to see how many plate appearances they received from players 32 or older (not including pitchers). By the way, when we refer to a player's age, it's his age as of June 30 of that season.

For those 40 playoff teams, the average number of plate appearances was 1,711. Here are the 10 oldest playoff teams by this method (remember, we're only looking at position players):

Some of these teams are warning signs about what can go wrong with an old team: the 2008 Cubs and White Sox haven't sniffed the playoffs since; the Giants brought back many of their veterans from their World Series champs and paid the price as Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres and Freddy Sanchez (plus new addition Miguel Tejada) all failed to replicate their performances; the 2009 Red Sox made the playoffs but fell off in 2010 as the lineup scored 54 fewer runs (the pitching allowed only eight more runs); the Angels scored 872 runs in 2009 but were down to 667 by 2011, in part because of the declines of Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu and the addition of ineffective 32-year-old Vernon Wells.

Even the 2011 Phillies are an interesting example. The Phillies have won the past five NL East titles. Interestingly, that first team in their run in 2007 had the fewest plate appearances from players 32 or older of the 40 playoff teams:

That 2007 team scored 892 runs. As the Phillies stuck with that core group and the players started getting into their 30s, guess what happened -- their runs scored have dropped to 820 in 2009 to 772 in 2010 and to 713 in 2011. Of course, the Phillies have been able to balance that out by bringing in pitchers like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt. You can also now add Ryan Howard to the age-32 classification for 2012 and we already know he's going to miss a significant chunk of time. Will the Phillies score even 700 runs this season?

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And that gets us back to the Rockies. In addition to the 38-year-old Todd Helton, they've added 38-year-old third baseman Blake, 36-year-old catcher Ramon Hernandez, 36-year-old second baseman Scutaro and 33-year-old outfielder Cuddyer. All of those guys have been good players, even as recently as last season. And while Helton was once a superstar, his back problems have helped limit him to an average of 11 home runs over the past four seasons. So my point: This group isn't exactly starting out from the same aging curve as Rodriguez and Jeter or Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins or even Hunter or Bobby Abreu.

It's a potential recipe for disaster. The Rockies are expecting close to 3,000 plate appearances from those five guys. Maybe it will happen, but I don't see. There's no precedent over the past five seasons for a lineup with that construction making the playoffs.

And the Rockies don't have three guys named Halladay, Lee and Hamels in the rotation.
Recommended reading for Tuesday ...
  • One of my favorite pieces of the season: Colleague Jim Caple reveals all the early spring training storylines.
  • The Astros will be wearing their old Colt .45s throwback jerseys this year. However, as Paul Lukas reports, there is one major problems with the replica jerseys: They're not replicas.
  • Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts has his spring training primer for the Dodgers. Jon has 22 locks for the Opening Day roster and one of the non-locks may be a surprise to you.
  • Some have concerns about the Angels bullpen, but they could have a secret weapon in Bobby Cassevah. I actually think the Angels' pen could end up being a strength, especially if Jordan Walden improves upon his rookie season. Scott Downs, Rich Thompson, Cassevah, LaTroy Hawkins and Hisanori Takahashi provide depth in middle relief. Including Walden, those six combined for a 2.69 ERA in 2011.
  • Pro Ball NW takes a look at what to expect from Justin Smoak in 2012 and addresses Eric Wedge's suggestion that Chone Figgins will be given a chance to win the leadoff spot. Look, Wedge is supposed to say nice things about his players early in spring training. I still think the odds are slim that Figgins has anything left after two terrible seasons. The big issue for the Mariners is trying to figure out the logjam at third base in the upper minors. They have (1) Kyle Seager, who profiles more as a utility infielder or second baseman (where he's blocked by Dustin Ackley) but posted a 96 OPS+ in 201 PAs with the Mariners in 2011 (not great, but better than Figgins); (2) Alex Liddi, a 23-year-old who mashed 30 home runs at Tacoma but also hit .259 and struck 170 times; (3) Francisco Martinez, the key guy acquired in the Doug Fister trade, who played most of last season at age 20 in Double-A and hit .289/.321/.426; (4) Vinnie Catricala, one of my favorite players in the minors, who hit .347/.420/.632 in 62 games at Double-A but carries a shaky glove. Personally, I'd like to see Seager win the third-base job, let Liddi play another year in Triple-A, start Martinez in Double-A since he needs to work on his strike-zone appreciation (24 walks in 2011) and move Catricala to left field, where he played some last year.
  • Amanda Rykoff, blogger for ESPNW, is a huge baseball fan and has a good primer on some advanced stats -- many of which we mention here all the time and don't always explain to the uninitiated.
  • Fun quiz now that potential future Hall of Famer Manny Ramirez signed with the A's: Can you name all 12 Hall of Famers who played for the Oakland A's? Take the SportsNation quiz. You have four minutes. It's harder than you think.
  • Blake Street Bulletin is going position-by-position in previewing the Rockies: Third base may not necessarily be given to Casey Blake, not with hotshot prospect Nolan Arenado on the rise.
  • Barry Zito is still around. And the Giants may actually need him to generate some value this year, writes Chris Quick.
  • Good research piece by J.P. Breen at FanGraphs, looking at which teams have developed the most talent via the draft since 2002. No. 1: the Red Sox. No. 30: the Mariners, with the amazingly low total of just 8.9 WAR. (The study doesn't include international signings like Felix Hernandez.)

Defining who's Mr. Average

January, 29, 2012
Jan 29
12:35
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With all of this talking about production up the middle or at the four corners over the past 25 years, it might also be helpful to put this into perspective by asking: Who’s average?

Here again, I’m indebted to Clay Davenport’s work in creating Equivalent Average, as useful a tool for all-time performance on offense today as it was in the ’90s. Sticking with the 2011 and following Clay’s advice to cheat up a couple of points -- to avoid the impact of the real scrubs -- let’s look at who set the bar for mediocrity at all eight regular positions in the field:

Catcher: Rod Barajas, .258 Equivalent Average (EqA). Sure, he struggles to get on base, but Barajas’ modest pop at the plate -- delivering a .200 ISO last season -- and solid receiving skills makes him the acme of average from the backstop bin. In Pittsburgh, he might help propel their latest bid for a .500 season.
Runner-up: The Brewers’ Jonathan Lucroy, .254 EqA.

First Base: Freddie Freeman, .286 EqA. This might seem like an indictment of the Atlanta Braves’ prodigy, but the standards for offense at first base are higher than at any position, and this isn’t a shabby place to start for a kid in his age-21 season.
Runner-up: The Marlins’ Gaby Sanchez, .284 EqA.

Second Base: Orlando Hudson, .268 EqA. Hudson’s power has taken a hit the last two years since going to slugger-sapping Target Field and now the Padres’ Petco Park, but he still provides average offense for the position and above-average glove work, so he’ll keep landing gigs.
Runner-up: The Mets’ Justin Turner, .263 EqA, and an excellent example of how GMs can still find plug-in players on the waiver wire.

Third Base: One of the funny things about the field is that you’d be hard-pressed to find a truly average regular at third, but the closest might be Casey Blake with the Dodgers (.268 EqA) or Jack Hannahan with the Indians (.263), so let’s call it a platoon and punt on picking a runner-up.

Shortstop: Clint Barmes, .257 EqA. Here we have another Pirates offseason acquisition, which might be taken as proof that average is the new up, or that it takes a certain kind of player to choose to go to Pittsburgh. But more fundamentally, Barmes reflects today’s higher standard for adequacy on offense at short, because beyond premium defense he ripped a dozen homers for the Astros.
Runner-up: The White Sox’s Alexei Ramirez, .256 EqA, and another example after knocking 15 homers of his own.

Left Field: Cody Ross, .273 EqA. In contrast, here’s a great example of the declining standard for what gets by in left. The hero of the postseason in 2010 went back to his more mortal form at the plate with the Giants, and looks like he’ll be shunted into a part-time role with the Red Sox, splitting time in right field or spotting for the injured Carl Crawford in left early on.
Runner-up: Jason Bay, .270 EqA, and a symbol of the Mets’ bang-less bucks at work.

Center Field: Adam Jones, .273 EqA. Here’s a reflection on what a difference a position makes. Cody Ross? Not in high demand. Adam Jones of the Orioles? He’s a star, and somebody many teams would love to trade for.
Runner-up: The Diamondbacks’ Chris Young, .270 EqA. Keep in mind, Equivalent Average is park-adjusted, so all that slugging the Snakes get from their center fielder at home -- including 14 of his 20 homers, with a 131-point difference between his home and road SLG.

Right Field: Seth Smith, .283 EqA. Right’s the premium offensive position in the outfield these days, so the standard for average is going to be a bit higher. It says something about the Athletics’ lot on offense that they traded for Smith and fell he’ll provide a big boost with his bat from either corner.
Runner-up: Jeff Francoeur, .279 EqA. His comeback with the Royals was nice to see, but it’s a reflection of the depths he plummeted to during his three years in the wilderness that he’s gone from awful to average, not awesome.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
And now a look through the Senior Circuit injury wire.

Chris Coghlan and Mike Stanton, Marlins: Coghlan is suffering from right shoulder tendinitis but is expected to start on Opening Day and will monitor his throwing carefully. Stanton missed much of spring with a quadriceps strain but returned last Friday and hit two home runs.

Mets: Where to begin? Jason Bay could now begin on the DL with a rib-cage discomfort, after missing two games recently with back stiffness. The Mets appear committed to Carlos Beltran as their Opening Day right fielder. He played a minor league game over the weekend and went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts and had a double and triple hit over his head. Backup catcher Ronny Paulino could be headed to the DL with stomach issues. Johan Santana hopes to pitch sometime this season.

Chase Utley, Phillies: You've been following this one. Nobody knows when he'll be ready ... if it all, although he said Monday a goal is to return before the All-Star break.

Brad Lidge, Phillies: Lidge will undergo an MRI today to see if there is structural damage in his shoulder. He'll start on the DL, with Ryan Madson taking over as closer.

Placido Polanco, Phillies: He missed two weeks with a hyperextended elbow but is back and apparently OK.

Adam LaRoche, Nationals: He has a slight tear in his rotator cuff but will rehab and play through it.

Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey, Reds: Cueto has shoulder inflammation and Bailey has shoulder impingement and both begin the season on the DL (along with backup outfielder Fred Lewis, who has a strained oblique). Cueto has resumed playing catch and Bailey is expected to miss two starts. Mike Leake and Sam LeCure join the rotation, although the Reds don't need a fifth starter the first turn through the rotation.

Clint Barmes and Jason Castro, Astros: Castro is out for the season after tearing up his knee (and now catcher J.R. Towles has a balky back). Barmes is out 4-6 weeks and the Astros just acquired Joe Inglett to help with infield depth.

Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, Brewers:: Marcum missed a start with a stiff right shoulder but threw four pain-free innings on Monday. Greinke just started playing catch after suffering a fractured rib playing basketball. A late April return appears to be the goal.

Corey Hart, Brewers: Hart is aiming for a mid-April return from a strained rib-cage muscle. The Brewers just acquired Nyjer Morgan for outfield depth.

Chris Snyder, Pirates: The catcher's bad back will likely land him on the DL, leaving the Pirates with Ryan Doumit and Jason Jaramillo behind the plate.

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: He's out for the season following Tommy John surgery, with Kyle McClellan taking his spot in the rotation.

J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks: A stiff back has limited Putz in Cactus League action, but he's still hoping to be Arizona's closer come Opening Day.

Ian Stewart, Rockies: He's missed time with a right knee sprain and left Monday's game with a tight hamstring, but said he isn't concerned. The Rockies traded for Josh Fields as insurance and have Ty Wigginton and Jose Lopez on the roster.

Jon Garland, Casey Blake and Dioner Navarro, Dodgers: Garland suffered a strained oblique early in spring training and just getting back to building up his arm strength. He'll need a couple weeks. Blake has back inflammation and will begin the season on the DL. Jamey Carroll is around to fill in (or Juan Uribe will shift to third with Carroll playing second). Backup catcher Navarro is also expected to start on the DL with a strained oblique.

Mat Latos, Padres: Latos has bursitis in his right shoulder and heads to the DL. Keep tabs on this one as the Padres will undoubtedly be cautious with the young ace.

Brian Wilson and Cody Ross, Giants: Wilson has a strained oblique and likely to begin on the DL, but could be activated as soon as April 5. Bruce Bochy hasn't announced his backup closer plans. Playoff hero Ross is on the DL with a calf strain and could miss three weeks. Nate Schierholtz could take his place or rookie Brandon Belt could play first base with Aubrey Huff moving to the outfield.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Cubs' Lilly cheats, busted by Twitter

May, 27, 2010
5/27/10
6:24
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It's not often that you see a runner on first base arguing with the first-base umpire. But that's exactly what happened in the bottom of the sixth inning at Wrigley Field today, as Casey Blake got into it with crew chief John Hirschbeck.

I was watching the Cubs' broadcast, and Len Kasper and Bob Brenly both were perplexed.

Just a moment later, though, I saw this on Twitter, from C.J. Nitkowski: "Watching some daytime MLB. Camera just zoomed in & didn't realize it caught a pitcher cheating. Don't ask me who/what. Tricks of the trade."

Still a mystery, right? Then, this: "Uh-oh Casey Blake is on to it. TV guys completely in the dark. I should start my analyst career."

Nitkowski said he wouldn't tell us the who/what ... But with the mention of Casey Blake, we know the "who" must be Ted Lilly.

Still no what, though. And the broadcasters never revisited the subject (and even if they'd figured it out, they're probably not going to score a lot of points in the organization by exposing one of their own guys as a cheater).

Fortunately, the Twitterverse is vast and powerful.

First, this from GreenLantern411: "pretty sure CJ is talking about lilly's left foot being nowhere near the rubber ... was pretty blatant"

And a few moments later, this from (Rangers fan) jcooksey04: "Lilly's foot was about 6 inches from the rubber in his last start vs the Rangers. Umps never saw it."

Thus armed, I went back and watched the bottom of the sixth inning again, but this time the Dodger broadcast with Steve Lyons and Eric Collins.

The fun begins with two outs and Blake on first base. Reed Johnson fouls off one pitch, then another. Blake, leading off, is one of the two people in Chicago with the best look at whatever Lilly's doing (first baseman Derrek Lee is the other). Before throwing his third pitch, Lilly steps off the mound. We don't know why. A moment later, he steps off again and finally we see Blake standing on first base, complaining to John Hirschbeck about something.

Lyons says, "I think Casey Blake maybe thought he saw a balk, and he's over there chipping at the first-base umpire about, why aren't we calling it?"

First-base coach Mariano Duncan gets between Blake and Hirschbeck, and eventually Joe Torre saunters out for a bit of mid-afternoon entertainment.

Finally, a replay from the high-third-base camera, showing Lilly getting set, and Blake just standing on first base and pointing at Lilly. And now Lyons gets it: "Take a good look at Casey. And he's trying to say whether or not, maybe Ted Lilly isn't even on the rubber. We've talked a lot about the fact that he stays way on one side of the rubber or the other, and Casey's saying he's about four inches off the rubber in front of it. Which can give you a significant advantage."

What we'd missed the first time around -- and what the Cubs broadcast somehow never managed (or bothered) to show -- was Blake turning to Hirschbeck and holding his hands four to six inches apart. And again, if anybody would have known, he would.

Torre didn't belabor the point, Reed Johnson made out on the next pitch, and Lilly cruised through the seventh inning. This is a small thing. Pitchers have been cheating in exactly this way since pitching rubbers were first installed, I'm absolutely sure. But you may, if you like, apportion extra credit this afternoon to Casey Blake, to C.J. Nitkowski, and to the InterWeb.
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