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We drown in numbers and statistics these days, but here's one that sums up the crumbling state of the Boston Red Sox quite eloquently: Following Josh Beckett's implosion on Thursday night, Red Sox starters have now allowed five-plus runs in 14 starts; Nationals starters have done so once.

Here's another way. Fifty-three American League starting pitchers are qualified for the AL ERA title. Here's where Boston's five starters rank:

32. Jon Lester (4.29)
38. Daniel Bard (4.83)
46. Felix Doubront (5.29)
51. Josh Beckett (5.97)
53. Clay Buchholz (9.09)

OK, ERA can be a little misleading early in the season. Here's where those five guys rank among AL starters in strikeout/walk ratio:

27. Beckett
32. Doubront
41. Lester
48. Bard
51. Buchholz

The Red Sox are 12-19 for a lot of reasons: injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford and Andrew Bailey; a slow start from Adrian Gonzalez; a couple bullpen implosions; Bobby Valentine using outfielder Darnell McDonald to pitch in a tie game.

Those are all factors, but despite the injuries on offense, the Red Sox are still second in the AL in runs scored; the bullpen has five losses, but 14 teams have more; and Valentine is more lightning rod than explanation.

No, the responsibility rests with the starting rotation. Bard and Doubront have perhaps predictably been mediocre, but they've actually been improvements over Tim Wakefield and John Lackey, so the blame falls on the supposed big three of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz.

Beckett started in Fenway against Cleveland on Thursday, his first start since April 29 and first since the infamous "he cares more about golfing than pitching" story leaked to the media. Beckett actually had pitched pretty well since his five-homer disaster in his first start, posting a 2.93 ERA over his next four starts. While I'm happy to report that I didn't see any greasy fried chicken stains on his jersey, his evening was yet another May disaster for the Sox.

In the top of the second, with one run already in, Jack Hannahan hit a 2-2 changeup to right field for a two-out home run. Not surprisingly, the Fenway faithful let go with more than a few loud boos. In third inning, Jason Kipnis crushed a 3-2 cutter over the bullpen in right-center. After Asdrubal Cabrera singled, Beckett got ahead of Travis Hafner with two strikes but then threw four consecutive balls. Shin-Soo Choo doubled to right on a 2-0, four-seam fastball to score Cabrera. Michael Brantley fell behind two strikes, then lined a double into the gap in left-center on a 1-2 curveball, scoring two more runs and knocking Beckett from the bump in what would be an 8-3 Indians victory.

You can see the issues here: Even when he got ahead of batters, Beckett was unable to put them away. He used the whole tool box -- changeups, four-seamers, cutters, curveballs; the Indians hit them all. Six of the seven hits off Beckett went for extra bases.

I blurted out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast that Beckett is the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. That's probably unfair to a pitcher who has been good for a lot of years, a guy who had dominant postseason runs in 2003 and 2007 in leading the Marlins and Red Sox to World Series titles. Those playoff performances did inflate his reputation a bit, as his regular-season performances haven't been consistently at that level. He has received Cy Young votes just twice in his career (finishing second in 2007 and ninth in 2011). He hasn't exactly been CC Sabathia when it comes to durability, reaching 200 innings just three times and never topping 215. With the Red Sox, he's had two seasons of ERAs over 5.00.

Maybe 2012 is going to be one of those down years; Red Sox fans who saw Beckett and Lester collapse down the stretch expected leadership from Beckett, not reports on his golf swing.

Speaking of Lester, what has happened to the dominant left-hander of a few seasons ago? In 2009, he averaged 10.0 strikeout per nine innings, but that figure has dipped to 6.0 this season. His walks are up more than one per nine innings since 2009. His velocity is still fine; as Curt Schilling has pointed out, his command isn't, with Lester especially struggling in pitching to the outside corner against right-handed batters. Going back to his final 11 starts of 2011, Lester has a 4.16 ERA and a poor strikeout/walk ratio of 86/50. The stuff is still there, but we're going on 18 starts now of mediocre pitching.

Buchholz is an even bigger disaster, the worst starter in the majors so far. Unable to get the ball down in the zone, Buchholz has been pounded like a punching bag. Opponents are hitting .343 and slugging .613 off him. Essentially, the average hitter against Buchholz is David Ortiz. The Red Sox can't afford to keep sending him out there; he probably has one more start before a demotion to Triple-A or stint on the disabled list is necessary.

Eric Karabell made a good argument on the podcast: the Red Sox were 14-17 a year ago and only a historical collapse prevented them from reaching the playoffs. They're only two games worse now, he would suggest, so rationally they're far from out of it. Eric could also point out that Detroit and Arizona were both 14-17 after 31 games a year ago and won 95 and 94 games, respectively.

Eric is right, of course. The Red Sox aren't dead.

But with a 1-8 record in May and a starting rotation in shambles, they certainly look it.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

There was a time when Jake Peavy was mentioned in the same breath as pitchers like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. There was a time when Peavy might have been better than all of them -- the best in the game, in fact.

The last year he started 30 games was in 2007. That season he led the National League in wins, ERA, strikeouts, fewest baserunners allowed per nine innings and most strikeouts per nine. He was the only starter in the major leagues with an ERA under 3.00. He collected all 32 first-place votes in the NL Cy Young Award balloting.

"I can definitely get better," Peavy said after winning the award. "I've got a long way to go to be who I want to be." Maybe he was referring to not throwing a complete game that season. Maybe he was referring to Game No. 163, the playoff tiebreaker in Colorado. Peavy gave up 10 hits and six runs in 6 1/3 innings in a game the Padres eventually lost in the 13th inning. He was 26 years old, a Cy Young winner with two ERA titles under his belt, but he still wanted to prove he was the best pitcher in baseball.

This isn't the way he wanted it to happen, but it's May 2012 and right now Jake Peavy is back on top: He's the best pitcher in baseball. That's right: Better than Halladay or Verlander or Clayton Kershaw or Jered Weaver.

It's an amazing comeback story from a guy who has battled four years of injuries, and not just the routine battle scars that pitchers have to overcome. In 2010, he feared his career could be over. A quick look back at that list of injuries:

2008: He went on the disabled in May with a sore elbow, missed a month and ended up making 27 starts and posting a 2.85 ERA.

2009: Strained a tendon in his right ankle rounding a base in late May, an injury that eventually landed him on the DL. Traded to the White Sox while disabled, Peavy returned in September to make three strong starts. In 16 starts, he finished 9-6 with a 3.45 ERA.

2010: In July, Peavy ruptured the tendon that attaches the latissimus dorsi muscle to the rear of the right shoulder. He became the first major league pitcher to undergo an experimental surgery involving stitches and titanium anchors. His season was over after 17 starts.

2011: Missed time at the start of the season with shoulder tendinitis, later pulled a groin and then was shut down in September due to arm fatigue. He made 18 starts.

Now he's healthy for the first time in a long time. "I’m a different guy than since you've probably ever seen me, just as far as feeling OK on the mound, being able to worry about making pitches, worrying about game planning not sitting in the trainer room the whole time in between days," he told ESPN Chicago a couple starts ago.

Watching him pitch on Wednesday, he looked like the Peavy from his Padres heyday, mixing his fastball, cutter, tight slider, curveball and changeup from that slightly herky-jerky delivery of his. For all the talk of Yu Darvish's wide arsenal of pitchers, Peavy also throws a kitchen sink repertoire. He cruised through six shutout innings against Cleveland before surrendering a run in the seventh as the White Sox scored an 8-1 victory. He threw first-pitch strikes to 18 of 28 batters and while he rarely topped at more than 90 mph on his fastball, he pitched with precision while changing speeds.

Best in the game? A bold statement, yes, but through seven starts nobody's been better. Check the numbers:

• 4-1, 1.89 ERA, with just 11 runs allowed in seven starts.
• Tied with Felix Hernandez for most innings pitched.
• .189 batting average allowed, .221 OBP allowed (third behind only Matt Cain and Jered Weaver), .482 OPS allowed (fifth).
• Strikeout/walk ratio of 44 to 7, third-best behind Cole Hamels and Bronson Arroyo.

What's impressive about this seven-start run is Peavy has had to face most of the hard-hitting lineups in the American League: two starts against Detroit, plus Texas, Boston, Baltimore and Cleveland. He has one start against Oakland. Weaver, for instance, has faced the Twins in three of his seven starts and hasn't faced Detroit, Texas or Boston.

Now, whether Peavy can keep it going and remain healthy is another issue. Entering his Wednesday start, he was the most extreme fly-ball starting pitcher in the majors, although he has allowed just two home runs. He did induce groundballs on nine of his 15 non-strikeout outs on Wednesday, but skeptics would suggest that his home run rate isn't sustainable. That's certainly likely, but you can see from his heat maps that while he's been pitching up in the zone, he's doing a good job of keeping the ball away from hitters.



Amazingly, Peavy isn't the only comeback story for the White Sox. Designated hitter Adam Dunn's career appeared to be in jeopardy for other reasons after suffering through one of the worst seasons in major league history last year, with a batting average I don't even want to repeat.

Dunn, however, has been one of the most valuable hitters in the game so far, slugging his 10th home run on Wednesday, a two-run bomb off Jeanmar Gomez in the first inning. Dunn is hitting .243/.384/.586 and he's tied for third in the majors in homers and ranks ninth in RBIs and 15th in OPS.

Whether Dunn can keep this up is also a fair question. His strikeout rate of 34.1 percent is close to 2011's 35.7 percent, both figures well above Dunn's career mark of 27.7 percent. Basically, last year his fly balls were caught; this year, they're landing on the good side of the fence. But he's also lofting the ball more than a year ago; only four players are hitting a higher percentage of fly balls than Dunn. When you're as big and strong as Dunn, fly balls are a good thing.

Still, you have to connect with the sweet part of the wood. And White Sox fans have hearing that sweet sound so far.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Of course we want the Kansas City Royals to do well. What have the Royals ever done to you? (Leave Jorge Orta out of this.)

No, they're the little team from the Midwest with the cool water fountains in the outfield and were once relevant before Bo Jackson broke his hip. In other words ... a long time ago. No need to recite their recent miserable history here other than to say that despite 16 losing seasons in the past 17, many predicted this would be breakout year for the Royals. They're young! They're exciting! They have Eric Hosmer! Fans trusted The Process and this would be the year their trust would be rewarded with a team that would actually win more games than it lost.

And then the season began and the Royals once again look terrible. They've lost 10 in a row, they're 0-9 at home, Hosmer is hitting .183 and Yuniesky Betancourt has hit first, second and fifth in recent days.

Can it get any worse?

OK, maybe we could have seen this coming. After all, this was still a pitching staff led by ... Bruce Chen. And Luke Hochevar. And ... wait, let's stop being so negative. Truth, it's been a lot of bad luck and bad breaks for the Royals. Five of their 12 losses have been by one run. And while they're 13th in runs scored in the AL, they're middle of the pack in average, on-base and slugging. They just haven't had enough timely hits with runners on base. Usually that corrects itself over time.

The starting pitching has struggled, but there are some good signs. Chen and Hochevar have a combined 26/7 SO/BB ratio and just one home run allowed. Danny Duffy has been throwing some high-octane heat, averaging 95 mph on his fastball. The control is a little wobbly but the velocity is as good as any left-hander in baseball. So maybe there's hope.

After all, it's just two weeks. It's too early to give up.

Series of the week

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, Monday through Wednesday
CC Sabathia (1-0, 5.59) vs. Derek Holland (2-0, 3.10)
Hiroki Kuroda (1-2, 5.00) vs. Yu Darvish (2-0, 3.57)
Phil Hughes (1-2, 6.75) vs. Scott Feldman (0-0, 0.00)

The Yankees are 9-6, even though they rank 13th in the AL with a 5.84 rotation ERA. While the ERA is high, the rotation has pitched better in some regards -- it has an excellent strikeout/walk ratio of 77/23 in 81.2 innings, but has allowed 107 hits. So have these guys been unlucky with their balls in play? Are they serving up too many meaty strikes? Is the Yankees' defense that bad? One problem: the Yankees' starters have allowed 16 home runs; by contract, Rangers starters have allowed just seven.

April has always been Sabathia's worst month (4.17 career ERA In April versus 3.43 in other months), but his velocity is down compared to previous years. His average fastball velocity is 91.5 mph compared to 92.6 mph each of the past two Aprils. Something to watch for on Monday. Holland, meanwhile, is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against the Yankees. Besides Darvish's biggest test, note that Feldman draws the spot start on Wednesday as the Rangers played a doubleheader over the weekend after a rainout.

If we get to battle of the bullpens, it should be interesting. Yankee relievers have a 2.14 ERA with 65 K's in 54.2 innings. Texas relievers have a 2.33 ERA, an impressive 36/6 strikeout/walk ratio and .222 opponents' average allowed.

Three pitching matchups to watch

1. Matt Cain (1-0, 1.88) vs. Mat Latos (0-2, 8.22), Giants at Reds (Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. ET)

In his last two starts Cain has allowed no runs and three hits over 18 innings against the Pirates and Phillies. For the season, opponents are batting .114 against him and left-handed batters are just 4-for-43. That's nothing new as he held lefties to a .185 mark in 2011. Cain is aiming for a third straight start with a Game Score of 85 or higher -- something no pitcher has done since 1998 (Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens). Latos has struggled in his three starts, with just 11 strikeouts and a .328 average allowed.

2. Felix Doubront (0-0, 3.94) vs. Philip Humber (1-0, 0.63), Red Sox at White Sox (Thursday, 8:10 p.m. ET)

Hey, we have to highlight Mr. Perfect Game. Humber threw just 96 pitches against the Mariners, relying on his slider as his key pitch in registering nine strikeouts. Doubront left his last start against the Yankees with a 9-1 lead ... and ended up with a no-decision. And here's some good news for Red Sox fans: ESPN Stats & Information informs us that since 1995 three teams have started 4-10 or worse and made the playoffs -- 2007 Phillies, 2001 A's, 2000 Giants (all started 4-10). Including the pre-wild card are, nine teams in all made the postseason with that bad a start. Two of them won the World Series -- the 1991 Twins and 1979 Pirates.

3. Ross Detwiler (2-0, 0.56) vs. Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 1.61), Nationals at Dodgers (Friday, 10:10 p.m. ET)

Detwiler's hot start has been fueled by a 64.3 percent groundball rate, best in the majors among starting pitchers. He's also backed that up with 15 strikeouts in 16 innings. Davey Johnson has been conservative with Detwiler in his three starts as he hasn't thrown more than 81 pitches. Kershaw has allowed five runs in four starts (one abbreviated when he left after three innings with the flu) but has just one win. Not that wins matter of course.

Player on the hot seat: Albert Pujols
After a hitless weekend against the Orioles, Pujols is down to .246, hasn't homered in 65 at-bats and has driven in just four runs. Not exactly what the Angels were expecting. Two weeks is two weeks, but it's time for the $240 million man to produce. From ESPN Stats & Info: Look for the Rays to shift against Pujols. Not only do the Rays shift more than any other team, but Pujols has pulled or gone up the middle on 50 of the 56 balls he's put in play. All of his groundballs have been fielded by the third baseman or shortstop and he's 2-for-20 on grounders.

Player to watch: Matt Kemp
As long he's hitting like this, he's still the player to watch (with apologies to Josh Hamilton). Nine home runs in 16 games, seven in his last nine, a .450 average and 22 RBIs. Awesome stuff. Pujols and Alex Rodriguez hold the April record with 14 home runs. With series at home against the Braves and Nationals, you East Coasters may have stay up a little late.

• Austin Jackson scored a run in each of the Tigers' first six games this season. That was the longest streak by a Detroit batter to start a season since Darrell Evans crossed the plate in each of the first eight contests in 1986. And it's the longest streak by a Tigers leadoff hitter since 1939, when one of Jackson's center field predecessors, Barney McCosky, also scored in the first eight games of the season. In game seven on Friday, however, Jackson was on base only once (he walked in the eighth) and was stranded at third.
• [+] Enlarge
  Duane Burleson/AP PhotoAustin Jackson is having a solid season for the Tigers early on.
  The Red Sox managed to blow a three-run lead in the ninth and a two-run lead in the 11th in losing a wild one to Detroit on Sunday, 13-12. It was the first time Boston had scored a dozen runs and lost since May 31, 1970, when they were on the wrong end of a 22-13 slugfest with the White Sox at Fenway.
• Alfredo Aceves gave up all three ninth-inning runs in Sunday’s game without retiring a batter, making him just the second Red Sox pitcher in the live-ball era to work zero innings pitched in each of his first two appearances of the year. Guido Grilli faced one batter each in the first two games of the 1966 season, and didn't get either of them out.
• The Tigers used eight pitchers in that 13-12, come-from-behind win over the Red Sox. It marked just the second time in 70 years that Detroit had come back to win a game in which their starter surrendered seven-plus runs without getting through the third inning. Omar Olivares was the starter in 1997 when the Tigers rallied to beat Baltimore 11-8.
• On Sunday, the Yankees managed just three hits -- all doubles. That same day, the Twins had just two hits as Jason Hammel posted the longest no-hit bid of the year so far. Both Minnesota knocks were doubles. It's the first time in almost three years that two teams have done that on the same day. But then … the Royals did it against Oakland (three hits, three doubles) on Monday … and the Athletics did it against Kansas City (one hit) on Tuesday.It's the first time since at least 1917 that there have been three straight days where a team had every hit be a double.
• On Sunday, Jeff Samardzija (making just his sixth career start) was afforded the chance at a complete game. He had to be pulled after giving up a two-out homer that pulled the Nationals to within a run. Four days later, Matt Garza was en route to a shutout against Milwaukee, but was pulled after committing a two-out error that allowed the inning to continue. So the Cubs had two pitchers this week leave the game after 8.2 innings pitched.The Cubs hadn't had two pitchers work exactly 8.2 innings in the same season since 1995 (Jaime Navarro and Frank Castillo).
• In Sunday's Cardinals-Brewers game, you could say the teams spread it around. In the 9-3 Milwaukee victory, the 12 runs were charged to eight different pitchers. In fact, every hurler who appeared in the game ended up with at least one earned run on his record.It's the first game in eight seasons where the teams combined to use eight or more pitchers, and every single one of them got charged with at least one earned run. The last time that happened was on Sept. 9, 2004, when the Royals erupted for a 26-5 victory over the Tigers in the first game of a doubleheader.
• James Shields got called for a balk Wednesday on an illegal pickoff throw to third. That was in the bottom of the fifth -- after Justin Verlander had been called for his own balk in the top of the fifth.It was the first MLB game to feature balks by both teams in the same inning since Aug. 16, 2004, when the Rangers' Mickey Callaway and then-Indian CC Sabathia committed them in the fourth inning of a 5-2 Texas win.
• In that same game, Verlander threw eight shutout innings before getting tagged for four runs and the loss in the top of the ninth. He became the first pitcher to throw eight scoreless innings, then surrender four (or more) runs in the ninth to take a loss since Tim Hudson did it for the Braves on Sept. 22, 2005. Hudson allowed a three-run homer to Shane Victorino of the Phillies for most of that damage before Macay McBride had to come in and get the final out.
• In Monday's Yankees-Orioles game, Derek Jeter went a perfect 4-for-4 for the visitors, while Matt Wieters went a perfect 4-for-4 in the home dugout. It was the first game this year to feature two players with four-hit games.Since the start of 2010, there's been only one other MLB game where a player for each team went a perfect 4-for-4 or better -- and it was between the Orioles and Yankees. On July 30, 2011, Vladimir Guerrero’s 4-for-4 was the bright spot for Baltimore as the Yankees -- led by Robinson Cano's 5-for-5 -- demolished them 17-3.
• In Yu Darvish's much-anticipated major league debut on Monday, he allowed five earned runs, four walks, hit a batter, threw one wild pitch -- and won the game because the Rangers spotted him eight runs.He's the first pitcher in the live-ball era to win his major league debut while giving up all of those stats (or worse). Even take away the wild pitch, and only one other hurler has hit five earned runs, four walks, one HBP and a win in his debut. That was the Blue Jays' Matt Williams on Aug. 2, 1983.
• Jeff Gray of the Twins earned the first one-pitch victory of the season on Wednesday. Gray threw his one and only pitch to Peter Bourjos to end the top of the seventh, after which the Twins took the lead in the bottom of the inning. The Twins, conveniently, recorded the last one-pitch win last season, by Matt Capps on Sept. 23.
• Speaking of pitching oddities, the Royals-Athletics game was finally called in the top of the eighth inning on Tuesday after its second rain delay. Aaron Crow, who had pitched the seventh for the Royals, was credited with his first career save. Technically, he does meet the save criteria set forth in the rule book, notably that of being the "finishing pitcher" in a game his team won.The last player to be credited with a save prior to the ninth inning was Tony Sipp of the Indians, who received one in a rain-shortened affair with Tampa Bay on July 23, 2010. That also remains Sipp's only career save.
• On Tuesday, Freddy Garcia of the Yankees famously threw five wild pitches to tie the single-game American League record for such a thing. He was also the first pitcher to throw five-plus wild pitches in an outing of less than five innings. But two of those wild pitches scored runs for Baltimore. Another run scored on an error. That made the Orioles the first team in two years to score four-plus runs with one or fewer RBI. (The one RBI they did get came on a home run.)For the Orioles, it was just the second time since moving to Baltimore that they scored four runs on one or zero RBI. The other was in their inaugural year: On June 27, 1954, they scored three times on errors by the Athletics before finally walking off on an RBI single in the bottom of the 11th.
• Oakland "walked off" in unusual fashion on Wednesday when Jonathan Broxton plunked Yoenis Cespedes and Jonny Gomes to force in the winning run in the bottom of the 12th. It was the first game to end with back-to-back hit batters since Sept. 2, 1966, when Stu Miller of the Orioles hit Al Weis and Tommie Agee of the White Sox in the bottom of the 11th. (I admit that Elias found this a lot quicker than I would have.) However, Gomes became the first Athletics batter to get hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in extra innings since at least 1947. (It had never happened in the Baseball Reference "play index" era.) It's also noteworthy that Oakland scored its two runs in the 12th without a base hit. The three runners ahead of Cespedes reached on two walks and an error.
• Before Friday, there had been 36 double-digit strikeout games by teams this week (including seven games where both teams did it) but not one by a single pitcher. Max Scherzer's 11-strikeout outing on Friday afternoon broke that string.
• In Wednesday's 17-8 eruption between the Giants and Rockies, there were four pitchers (Tim Lincecum, Jeremy Guthrie, Guillermo Mota, Jeremy Affeldt)who all gave up at least six hits and at least five runs. It's the first time that that has happened since July 17, 1998, when Seattle dropped an 18-5 score on the Royals at the Kingdome.(It is also very intriguing that, in that game, both teams posted a seven-run inning. Except I don't know of a good way to search line scores.)
  
  By the way, on their next two games on Thursday and Friday, the Giants promptly had two pitchers (Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain)carry no-hit bids into the sixth inning. The only team to have bids in consecutive games last season was also the Giants. That happened on May 8 and 10 by Ryan Vogelsong and Lincecum.
• The Orioles and Blue Jays combined to hit seven home runs in Baltimore's 7-5 victory on Friday. All were solo shots. It's the first game with seven-plus home runs that were all solo since a July 20, 2010 game at Camden Yards between the Rays and Orioles.
• There's always one guy left out.In the 10-9 "pitchers’ duel" between the Twins and Angels on Thursday, 17 of the 18 starters recorded at least one base hit. Howard Kendrick was the lone collar, going 0-for-4 plus a walk.
  
  It's the first nine-inning game this season to have 17 different starters record a base hit. There were three games last season where all 18 did.
• Minnesota got a four-hit game from Denard Span and three-hit games from Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham and Danny Valencia. It's the first time the Twins have had four players with three hits, including at least one with four, since they dropped a 20-1 score on the White Sox on May 21, 2009.

In 2009 and 2010, Adam Wainwright was as good as just about any pitcher in baseball. He ranked third in adjusted ERA behind only Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay. Only five guys threw more innings and only CC Sabathia won more games. Wainwright finished third and then second in the National League Cy Young voting.

He hurt his elbow in spring training last year and missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His start Saturday against Zack Greinke is one of the more intriguing matchups of baseball's first weekend. Given Chris Carpenter's health issues, a successful return by Wainwright is even more imperative for the Cardinals.

Wainwright's signature pitch was his knee-buckling 12-to-6 curveball that he threw nearly 29 percent of the time in 2010. The only starters who threw a higher percentage of curveballs than Wainwright that year were Wandy Rodriguez and Gio Gonzalez. Two things made Wainwright's curve tough to attack: (1) He set it up with good velocity and location on his fastball, throwing 91-92 mph; (2) great location on the curve. Check the heat maps below: Wainwright spotted his curve low and away to left-handed hitters ... and low and away to right-handed hitters.



So while everybody's eyes will likely be on the radar gun, it may be Wainwright's command of his curve that tells us how he'll do as he returns. No matter what happens Saturday, it's an anticipated game for the Cardinals and their fans. "It really is a big deal," Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told MLB.com. "I'm probably going to have a few butterflies before that game even starts, just knowing how hard he's worked to get to where he is."

Meanwhile, Greinke gets the ball for the Brewers on the heels of Yovani Gallardo's four-homer Opening Day stink bomb. If you want a Cy Young candidate in the National League not named Halladay, Kershaw or Lee, Greinke may be your guy. Greinke finished 16-6 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 starts in 2011, and while that 3.83 ERA might not impress you, it comes with a big caveat: an extremely unlucky average on balls in play in the first half of the season.

Greinke's BABIP in the first half was .349, which led to a 5.45 ERA even though he had 99 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 74.1 innings. In the second half, his BABIP returned to a more normal level of .304 and he posted a 2.59 ERA.

Here's a heat map of Greinke's pitch locations in the first and second halves of 2011. While this doesn't tell the whole story of setting up hitters and so on, you can see the hot points are pretty similar. It does suggest that Greinke was merely unlucky in the first half, with a few too many bloopers, flares and infield hits.



What does it mean? If Greinke pitches like he did in 2011, when he led the NL in strikeouts per nine innings at 10.5, he's more likely to come closer to that 2.59 ERA than 3.83. Greinke also loved pitching at home last season -- he went 11-0 in 15 starts while averaging 11.3 K's per nine. The one aspect Greinke needs to improve on to become a legit Cy Young contender -- and remember, he won the American League award in 2009 with the Royals -- is to pitch deeper into games. He pitched more than seven innings only twice last season.

After Gallardo's disaster, there's nothing the Brewers would like more than eight innings from Greinke and the chance to hand the ball to John Axford with the lead.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

If my math is correct, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees still have 17 games against each other. The Rays and Boston Red Sox have 18 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees have 18 games against each other. And all three teams have 18 against the Toronto Blue Jays.

That's 107 more games of American League East mini-wars, in which every game will be treated as the one that may win -- or lose -- a division championship.

Friday's game at the Trop was as interesting as a regular-season game can be, with a hundred little moves worth discussing and dissecting. Rays manager Joe Maddon was already in midseason form, calling for a squeeze bunt, pinch-hitters and lefty/righty matchups out of the bullpen. Yankees counterpart Joe Girardi went to his trusty binder in the bottom of the first inning and got burned. And the greatest closer of all time failed to do his job. Yes, I'll take more, thank you very much.

A few quick highlights about a game you could write 3,000 words about:

• With two out in the first and runners on second and third, Girardi had CC Sabathia walk Sean Rodriguez to pitch to Carlos Pena. Girardi has a bit of unusual obsession with the intentional walk. Sabathia, for example, issued 17 IBBs over the previous three seasons. Compare that to guys like Justin Verlander (0), Cliff Lee (3), Roy Halladay (5) or Jon Lester (0). Anyway, while it's true Pena struggles against left-handers (.133 in 2011, .179 in 2010), it's also true that he's a very patient hitter willing to take a walk. Juicing the bases forces Sabathia to throw a strike. Pena worked the count to 3-2 and drilled a fastball for a grand slam. An intentional walk on Opening Day with two out in the first inning? Just ... well, wow.
• Down 6-5, the Rays had a great chance to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth when they put runners on the corners with no outs against David Robertson. Maddon sent Stephen Vogt in to hit for Elliot Johnson, Vogt's first major league at-bat. Robertson struck him out on four pitches -- two 92 mph cutters and a fastball up sandwiched around a curveball in the dirt. With Jose Molina up and a 1-1 count, Maddon sent the runners ... except Molina missed the squeeze sign and instead fouled off the pitch. Maddon, with the proverbial guts of a cat burglar, went right back to the squeeze, but Molina fouled it off for strike three. Robertson than fanned Matt Joyce to escape the jam.
• Mariano Rivera entered to close out it out. Desmond Jennings singled to right-center and Ben Zobrist tripled to deeper right-center. Girardi -- remember, he loves the intentional walk -- gave free passes to Evan Longoria and Luke Scott to load the bases. Once again, Girardi left his pitcher with no margin for error. Rivera fell behind 3-1 to Rodriguez but came back to strike him out, bringing up Pena. He got the count to 1-2 and the strikeout-prone Pena looked like a dead duck. Instead, Rivera threw a meaty pitch over the middle of the plate and Pena lofted a deep fly off the base of the wall in left-center. Game over. His first hit ever off Rivera. "Oh, yeah. [I was] very aware of it," Pena said. "His ball moves so much that your eyes deceive you." But Pena's eyes mapped this Rivera cutter, giving him a three-hit, five-RBI day. And as Pena did a postgame on-field interview, B.J. Upton delivered a shaving cream pie in the face that tasted just right.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Today's staff prediction from the SweetSpot blog network: the AL Cy Young Award. Justin Verlander received 11 of 38 first-place votes as eight different pitchers received first-place nominations. Yes, there are a lot of ace-level starters right now. The last AL pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards was Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000.

Mat Latos is already a pretty good pitcher. You know the résumé: Young, throws hard, good strikeout rate, pretty good control, succeeded in a great pitcher's park in San Diego.

What the Cincinnati Reds are hoping, of course, is that they acquired a No. 1, an ace to front their rotation. Did they? Time will tell, but let's do a little study to see the pitchers Latos compares with. Via the awesomeness of the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index, I looked for pitchers in the past 20 years with the following attributes: (1) 23 years old; (2) thrown at 350 innings in the majors; (3) averaged at least 6.5 strikeout per nine innings; (4) had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of at least 1.75.

This gives us 21 pitchers including Latos, a pretty good comp list of young power pitchers who showed early success in the majors.



So, what happened to those guys after they entered their age-24 season? Since the Reds have control of Latos for the next four seasons, let's see how they did from ages 24 to 27 (or as many seasons as applicable). We'll rank the pitchers in order of ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league context, scaled to 100), with their average innings pitched per season over the applicable years in parenthesis.

1. Pedro Martinez, 173 ERA+ (226 innings)
2. Rich Harden, 140 (90)
3. Felix Hernandez, 137 (242)
4. CC Sabathia, 134 (221)
5. Matt Cain, 132 (221)
6. Jake Peavy, 127 (201)
7. Carlos Zambrano, 126 (211)
8. Tom Gordon, 110 (154)
9. Andy Benes, 103 (204)
10. Ramon Martinez, 101 (185)
11. Mark Prior, 101 (105)
12. Ismael Valdez, 99 (162)
13. Chad Billingsley, 98 (192)
14. Scott Kazmir, 89 (150)
15. Oliver Perez, 89 (137)
16. Dontrelle Willis, 88 (122)
17. Scott Olsen, 88 (115)
18. Jeremy Bonderman, 85 (107)

OK, not surprisingly, we see a range of outcomes, from success stories to guys who stagnated or regressed to guys who developed arm problems.

The biggest positive I see about Latos is he has the third-best SO/BB ratio on the list, behind Mark Prior and Brett Anderson. His strikeout rate is seventh, although two of those ahead of him are Oliver Perez and Scott Kazmir.

Latos' adjusted ERA through age 23 isn't that impressive, since he's been pitching in San Diego. However, it's worth noting that in his career he's pitched 244 innings on the road, 185 at home. He does have a better ERA at Petco (3.11 to 3.57), but his peripherals remain strong on the road.

It's also worth noting that Latos doesn't have a lot of wear on his arm. He only pitched 184 innings in the minor leagues, missing time in 2008 with a strained oblique and sore shoulder. He also began the 2011 season on the disabled list with an inflamed bursa sac in his right shoulder but only missed one start. While the minor shoulder issues certainly raise a red flag, there are no signs of extraneous workload like you can point to with Prior or Kazmir.

Latos' character and cockiness have been questioned in the past, but I'm not concerned about those issues; heck, Pedro Martinez wasn't exactly the most well-liked opponent either.

If there's a direct comparison to make, it could be two to other towering pitchers. Like Latos, Andy Benes stood 6-foot-6 and threw hard. He also came up with the Padres. Benes remained a solid pitcher (155 wins) but never took his game to the next level. So Reds fans can perhaps hope for the CC Sabathia career path. Through age 23, Sabathia had already pitched four seasons in the big leagues, with a 4.12 ERA. He improved his strikeout and walk rates at age 24, improved even more at age 25 and won a Cy Young Award at age 26.

When fans think of Bobby Valentine, most will initially think of the time he tried to sneak back into the dugout wearing glasses and a fake mustache after getting ejected from a game. There will be plenty of talk about the perception that he's arrogant, a little aloof and craves the limelight too much. There will be talk that he hasn't managed in the major leagues since 2002 (although he did in Japan after that) and that his departure from the Mets was fueled in part by his disagreements with general manager Steve Phillips.

So the talk will mostly be about his personality. But what kind of manager was he? Let's look back at his career -- focusing mostly on his full seasons with the Mets from 1997 to 2002 -- to see what that may indicate about how he'll manage the Red Sox.

Will Carl Crawford hit leadoff?

With Jacoby Ellsbury's new power stroke, it may make sense to move him down in the order to get him more RBI opportunities; that would leave Crawford as a leadoff option. I don't see that. Even if Crawford bounces back, his on-base percentage is hardly ideal for a leadoff hitter and Valentine -- a guy who was using computers and studying sabermetrics back with the Rangers in the '80s -- craves a high OBP from his leadoff hitter.

Check out his leadoff hitters with the Mets:

1997: Lance Johnson/Brian McRae.
1998: Brian McRae/Tony Phillips -- McRae posted a career-high .360 OBP that year.
1999: Rickey Henderson.
2000: Ten different leadoff hitters, including Benny Agbayani 27 games.
2001: Used four guys at least 20 games, led by Joe McEwing's 44 games. Led off Agbayani 32 times.
2002: Roberto Alomar/Roger Cedeno.

The unconventional use of Agbayani, the rotund Hawaiian without much speed but in possession of good on-base skills, shows Valentine's preference for OBP. In 2002, with Cedeno failing to do the job, he used Alomar there. I see Crawford remaining lower in the order, with Ellsbury staying in the No. 1 spot.

Does he like the quick hook or does he let his starters stay in the game?

There's not really a lot of in-game strategy in the American League, especially with a team like the Red Sox that basically just looks to bash the ball. So the most important strategic elements for Valentine will be how he handles the rotation and bullpen. The 2011 Red Sox were 12th in the AL in average innings per start, but that was more a function of a lousy rotation than Terry Francona's itchy trigger finger.

Let's see where the Mets under Valentine ranked in average in innings per start among NL teams:

1997: 5th
1998: 4th
1999: 8th
2000: 4th
2001: 4th
2002: 5th

Nothing really unusual here, as the Mets usually had a solid rotation under Valentine. They ranked in the upper half of innings because he had decent pitchers.

He was a little more generous when it came to allowing his starters throw 100 to 119 pitches:

1997: 9th
1998: 7th
1999: 12th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 4th

What's interesting about the 2001 squad is that they actually allowed the fewest walks in the league, so the high pitch counts weren't the result of a staff that walked a lot of hitters. He had a veteran rotation that year -- Leiter, Kevin Appier, Glendon Rusch, Steve Trachsel, Rick Reed -- and let his starters work deeper into games. It will be interesting to see if Valentine allows Jon Lester and Josh Beckett to reach the century mark more often than Francona did. In 2011, Lester had 22 100-pitch games -- tied for 25th-most among major league starters; Beckett had 21. Justin Verlander had 34, CC Sabathia 31, and other top AL pitchers like James Shields, David Price, Felix Hernandez, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren and Jered Weaver were all in the high 20s or low 30s.

Does he like an experienced closer?

In other words, would he be comfortable with Daniel Bard in the ninth inning? With the Mets, he initially had John Franco. The team acquired Armando Benitez in 1999 and when Franco went down with an injury in early July, Benitez took over as closer; when Franco returned, Benitez kept the closer job. As the Rangers' manager from 1985 to 1992, he had a different closer every year early on, before the club turned starter Jeff Russell into a successful closer in 1989. Hard to read too much into this, although both Russell and Bard throw hard. My guess is this becomes more of a front-office decision (do they sign Ryan Madson?), but that Valentine would have no problem making Bard his closer.

Does he like strikeout pitchers or guys who throw strikes?

With the Rangers, Valentine (and pitching coach Tom House) were obsessed with guys who threw hard. They had Bobby Witt, Jose Guzman, Edwin Correa, Nolan Ryan, Mitch Williams and others. Ryan had mostly refined his control (for him) by the time he reached Texas, but the other four would have problems hitting a barn door placed 10 feet in front of them. His first four staffs all had the highest walk rate in the American League. His staffs with the Mets were better, and Valentine seemed less concerned with velocity -- guys like Reed, Bobby Jones and Rusch were more finesse-type pitchers who threw strikes.

Mets strikeout rate under Valentine:

1997: 13th
1998: 7th
1999: 4th
2000: 3rd
2001: 5th
2002: 5th

Mets walk rate under Valentine:

1997: 2nd
1998: 7th
1999: 8th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 5th


Does he like a set lineup?

During his years with the Mets, Valentine always had a set infield, but remarkably never had one outfielder start 100 games at one position more than once. His machinations out there were pretty remarkable and show the willingness to be flexible and mix and match players as needed. Now, with the Red Sox he won't have same issue, with Ellsbury and Crawford playing every day, but it certainly suggests he'd be comfortable with a platoon in right field.

Here's the list of outfielders who started 100 games in a season at the same position with the Mets under Valentine:

1997: Bernard Gilkey, LF, 134
1998: Brian McRae, CF, 144
1999: Rickey Henderson, LF, 113
2000: Jay Payton, CF, 124; Derek Bell, RF, 136
2001: None
2002: Roger Cedeno, LF, 125; Jeromy Burnitz, RF, 131

The big issue here is how he handles Crawford, especially if he struggles to hit left-handers again (.195 in 2011). Would he consider benching Crawford against lefties, or at least the tough lefties?


Does he like young players?

With the Mets, he mostly had a veteran lineup. He did give Agbayani an opportunity, broke in Payton and Timo Perez, and gave Cedeno his first chance to play every day. With the Rangers, he broke in position players like Ruben Sierra, Oddibe McDowell, Steve Buechele, Pete Incaviglia, Jerry Browne, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez and Dean Palmer. Again, this might be more of a front-office decision, but I'd say Valentine would give youngsters like Josh Reddick and Ryan Lavarnway an opportunity to play regularly.

Valentine's reputation with the Mets was one of being prepared and being tactically smart with his in-game moves. He had to do more with the Mets than he'll have to with the Red Sox, especially considering he was often platooning at one or two outfield spots. He trusted his veteran starters to go deep into games. In short, there's nothing radically unconventional about Valentine's managerial philosophy. Of course, he last managed in the majors 10 years ago and his biggest challenge won't necessarily be strategy, but getting Crawford to rebound, getting his older players in better shape, and rebuilding Bard's confidence.

Justin Verlander is hoping to become the first pitcher to win the MVP Award since Dennis Eckersley in 1992, and the first starting pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986. Jacoby Ellsbury is hoping to win the MVP Award despite the late-season collapse of the Red Sox (hey, don’t blame him!). Jose Bautista is hoping his big offensive numbers carry the day even though his team finished 81-81. Curtis Granderson is hoping to win despite a September slump that would leave his .262 batting average as the lowest ever for an MVP hitter. And then there’s Miguel Cabrera, who put up monster numbers in the shadow of his teammate.

Who will win? Nobody knows. Despite a storyline that seemed to focus on him, will a historical bias against pitchers hurt Verlander? There is also a strong historical bias in favor of players on playoff teams, which will help Verlander and Granderson, but work against Ellsbury and Bautista. Will Ellsbury lose some votes to teammates Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia, who also had strong seasons? Here’s how the SweetSpot bloggers voted (14 points for first, nine for second, eight for third, etc.)

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: 296 points (15 first-place votes)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: 256 points (8)
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 177 points
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 131 points (1)
Curtis Granderson, Yankees: 114 points (1)
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 44 points
Ian Kinsler, Rangers: 26 points
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox: 23 points
Alex Gordon, Royals: 12 points
Evan Longoria, Rays: 8 points
CC Sabathia: 7 points
Michael Young, Rangers: 6 points

* * * *

Let’s do the center fielders first, since that’s the easiest comparison. Granderson starts with an advantage of nine more home runs (41 to 32), five more triples (10 to 5), three more hit-by-pitches (12 to 9) and 33 more walks (85 to 52). That’s 87 more bases. But Ellsbury had 20 more doubles (46 to 26), 53 more singles (129 to 76) and four fewer double plays hit into (12 to 8). That’s plus-97 bases for Ellsbury. Ellsbury stole 39 bases (caught stealing 15 times) and Granderson stole 25 bases (10 caught stealing), a minor edge for Ellsbury. Granderson used up 463 outs, Ellsbury 479. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference.com estimates that Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 runs per 27 outs; Granderson created 121 runs, or 7.0 runs per 27 outs. Granderson played in a slightly higher run-scoring environment.

Some more numbers: Ellsbury hit .366/.420/.691 with runners in scoring position, Granderson hit .242/.303/.516. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Ellsbury hit .400, Granderson hit .208. When the score was tied, Ellsbury had a .900 OPS, Granderson .820. No matter how you slice things, I can’t come up with a way that proves Granderson had the better year at the plate. And the deeper you dig, the more you uncover that Ellsbury played his best in clutch situations and close games. Yankees fans may accuse me of bias or being a Red Sox fan, but such is not that case. Ellsbury was the more productive offensive player.

Then you get to the defense. By all accounts, Ellsbury played a better center field in 2011. I’m not sure he deserved his Gold Glove (Austin Jackson and Peter Bourjos were superb), but the defensive metrics also say he was far superior to Granderson.

Look, both were dynamic players, power-speed combinations at an important defensive position. But I think it’s clear that Ellsbury had the superior season. The one caveat in regard to MVP voting, of course, is that Granderson’s team made the playoffs and Ellsbury’s did not. But don’t blame Ellsbury for Boston’s collapse -- he hit .358 with eight home runs in September. But some voters will hold the collapse against him; to me, it's failed logic to say that Ellsbury is less of an MVP candidate because Jonathan Papelbon couldn’t close out a lead on the final night of the season and Dan Johnson hit a home run off Cory Wade.

* * * *

OK, Ellsbury versus Jose Bautista is a little tougher. Bautista starts off with 11 more home runs (43 to 32) and 80 more walks (132 to 52). He had an awesome year at the plate. But Ellsbury had three more triples (5 to 2), 22 more doubles (46 to 24), 43 more singles (129 to 86), three more hit-by-pitches (9 to 6). Both players grounded into eight double plays. Bautista had 25 more bases, although Ellsbury closes that gap with a 39-to-9 edge in stolen bases. The big difference is Ellsbury used up 479 outs and Bautista 375. Run it through the mixer and Baseball-Reference estimates that Bautista created 149 runs, or 10.7 per 27 outs; Ellsbury created 139 runs, or 7.8 per 27 outs. Both guys played in similar run-scoring environments. Given Ellsbury’s production over the same number of outs as Bautista had, he would have created 108 runs, 41 fewer than Bautista.

But Ellsbury did have the advantage of playing nine more games and, since he hit leadoff, receiving more plate appearances (and thus more chances to affect the game). And then we have to factor in defense: Ellsbury is a good center fielder (+6 runs better than average according to Defensive Runs Saved, +15.6 runs by Ultimate Zone Rating), while Bautista rates as a below-average right fielder in both systems (-1 and -8.6), although he did rate well at third base in his limited time there (+6 and +3.8).

If you remember, Bautista was on fire early on, hitting .363 with 20 home runs through May. He slowed down after that, hitting .257 with 12 home runs in 65 games after the All-Star break. His walk rate actually remained consistent throughout the year, so it doesn’t appear that he started chasing pitches, but maybe frustration did set in from not getting a lot of pitches to hit. And for those who think he was part of the sign-stealing allegations that came out, his home/road splits were actually nearly identical: 1.063 OPS at home, 1.047 on the road. Breaking down some of Bautista’s other numbers, one jumps out at me: He hit .307/.523/.760 in “close and late” situations.

It was an impressive season, MVP-worthy.

If you go by WAR (Wins Above Replacement), it’s essentially a dead heat: If we average FanGraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR, Bautista is at 8.4, Ellsbury 8.3.

But I give the edge to Ellsbury. The season-long excellence matters, but so does his combination of playing center field, hitting leadoff and putting up awesome numbers at the plate. He created runs and prevented runs, while playing an important up-the-middle position. If you watched the Red Sox regularly, he was clearly the best player on the team, the dynamo at the top of the order.

* * * *

Obviously, I’m more of a numbers guy. But even I admit: Sometimes we get too caught up in the numbers. In 10 years, in 25 years, when we think of the 2011 season, what will we remember most other than the dramatic World Series and the greatest final day in baseball history? I think we’ll remember Verlander, the year he turned from flamethrower to pitcher, the year he made The Leap, when we began thinking of him as a guy with Hall of Fame potential, a pitcher who could win 300 games and join that inner circle of greatness. Now, maybe all that won’t happen, but that doesn’t mean the 2011 regular season didn’t belong to Justin Verlander. I think if you ask managers and general managers around baseball if they could have one player from the 2011 season, the majority would say Verlander.

Which is why, I admit, I’m conflicted to say that I think Jacoby Ellsbury deserves the 2011 American League MVP Award.

My unofficial ballot:

1. Ellsbury
2. Verlander
3. Bautista
4. Cabrera
5. Granderson
6. Pedroia
7. Robinson Cano
8. Gonzalez
9. Alex Avila
10. Longoria

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched, WHIP and hits per nine innings. He threw a no-hitter, had 16 starts in which he allowed one run or no runs and didn’t lose a game from mid-June through the end of the regular season. To nobody's surprise, he won his first Cy Young Award on Tuesday, becoming the first Tigers pitcher to win since reliever Willie Hernandez in 1984.

A few will argue for CC Sabathia. Indeed, here are the voting results from the SweetSpot Network bloggers (seven points for first, four for second, three for third; the real vote also awards two points for fourth and one for fifth):

Justin Verlander, Tigers: 169 points (23 first-place votes)
CC Sabathia, Yankees: 91 points (2)
Jered Weaver, Angels: 65 points
Dan Haren, Angels: 15 points
James Shields, Rays: 10 points

The basic case for Sabathia rests on that he pitched in a tougher division in a tougher park while allowing fewer home runs (24 for Verlander, 17 for Sabathia) and suffering from bad luck while Verlander received plenty of good fortune. I don’t quite buy it. Verlander allowed 14 fewer runs while pitching 14 more innings. Although Yankee Stadium is a good hitters' park, it favors left-handed batters over right-handers, so Sabathia wouldn’t necessarily face the same disadvantage as a right-handed pitcher. (Indeed, he allowed a .618 OPS at home, .710 on the road.) Comerica Park, despite its big dimensions to center field, actually plays as a slight hitters' park, according to Baseball-Reference's park factors. Verlander allowed a .547 OPS at home, .563 on the road.

As for tougher competition, that part is true. Against the top four offensive teams in the AL (Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Tigers), Sabathia made 10 starts, Verlander five. Against the bottom four offenses (Mariners, Twins, Athletics, White Sox), Sabathia made seven starts, Verlander 13. It's an important consideration, but perhaps it's also important to note that Sabathia didn't step it up against the best teams: He went 1-4, 6.39 ERA against Boston; he allowed 21 baserunners in 13 innings against Detroit; he was 2-0 against Texas in three starts but with a 5.14 ERA. In his limited action against the best hitting teams, Verlander posted a 2.70 ERA.

Finally, there is the matter of Verlander's allowing a .236 average on balls in play and Sabathia a .318 mark. Verlander's BABIP was second-lowest among starters (behind Jeremy Hellickson's .223), while Sabathia's was one of the worst. Sabathia allowed 230 hits in 985 plate appearances; Verlander allowed 174 in 969. That's a difference of 56 hits that Sabathia supporters have to account for via bad luck or good luck -- or about one hit per game per pitcher. For what it's worth, Baseball Info Solutions rated each team's overall defense roughly the same -- the Yankees as 15 runs below average, the Tigers as 18 runs below average.

Anyway, when trying to digest all these numbers, one little one jumped out at me: When Verlander went to a 2-0 count -- when hitters usually thrive -- he held opponents to a .202 average with just one home run in 89 at-bats, with 24 strikeouts and 24 walks. When Sabathia went to a 2-0 count, opponents hit .316 (24-for-76) with 32 walks and 16 strikeouts. Another big difference: When batters put a 1-0 pitch in play, they hit .241 off Verlander (13-for-54) but .403 off Sabathia (29-for-72). Isn't it possible that Sabathia more often threw hittable pitches on that count, trying to avoid that 2-0 hole?

My ballot
1. Justin Verlander
2. CC Sabathia
3. Jered Weaver
4. James Shields
5. C.J. Wilson

* * * *

At some point early in the season, I said something to Mark Simon on the Baseball Today podcast along the lines of "Will Verlander ever put it all together?" My point was that he had entered the season with a career 3.81 ERA; he had finished fifth in the 2007 Cy Young vote and third in the 2009 Cy Young vote, but he'd never had that knockout season, never had an ERA below 3.00.

He certainly delivered on that front. How historic was his season?

In the most basic level of analysis -- preventing runs -- not that historic. He prevented 47 fewer runs than the average 2011 American League pitcher would for his workload, which ranks 51st since 1961. The top 10: Pedro Martinez, 2000 (79); Roger Clemens, 1997 (74); Pedro Martinez, 1999 (67); Dwight Gooden, 1985 (63); Randy Johnson, 1999 (62); Greg Maddux, 1995 (62); Steve Carlton, 1972 (61); Sandy Koufax, 1966 (60); Bob Gibson, 1968 (60); Ron Guidry, 1978 (59).

Of course, not all runs are created equal. A run in low-scoring 1968 was worth more than a run in high-scoring 1999. That's where a stat like WAR (wins above replacement) comes in, as it adjusts for era and home park. On Baseball-Reference, Verlander moves up to 32nd since 1961. However, most of the leaders on that list come from the 1960s and '70s, when pitchers threw more innings and made more starts; if you pitched more, you could accumlate more value. If we change the cutoff date to 1990, Verlander jumps up higher on the WAR list: seventh (tied with 1993 Jose Rijo), behind only 1997 Clemens, 2000 Martinez, 1990 Clemens, 2009 Zack Greinke, 2002 Johnson and 1995 Maddux.

Verlander's dominance manifested itself in other ways as well: Since 1990, the only AL pitchers to allow a lower OPS were Martinez in 1999 and 2000 and Nolan Ryan in 1991. Since 1990, only five times has a starter allowed a lower batting average than Verlander's .192 mark -- Martinez twice, Ryan twice and Hideo Nomo.

In the end, maybe Verlander's season isn't quite Pantheon level -- but it was an amazing run, probably one of the top 10 pitcher seasons of the past 20 years.

I don't know about you, but I can't wait for the encore.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

I was sure Alex Rodriguez was going to pop one out.

I was pretty sure Mark Teixeira was going to pop one out.

I knew Nick Swisher was going to knock one over the short porch in right field, probably down the line and into the first row.

That's what we expect from the New York Yankees, isn't it?

When the Yankees asked Joaquin Benoit to remove the big bandage that covered a zit or mosquito bite or whatever had infected his cheek like a small alien, you knew it was coming: Benoit would be rattled, he'd be thinking about exposing his sore to a national TV audience more than throwing strikes and the Yankees would win another big October game.

Band-Aid Gate. We all saw it coming.

And it almost did. Curtis Granderson reached out on a 3-2 pitch off the plate and looped a liner into right field to move Derek Jeter to second base. Robinson Cano hit a dribbler to Benoit's right that he stabbed at and somehow missed to load the bases. Bringing up Rodriguez. He just missed a 1-1, 95 mph fastball, fouling it straight back. He laid off a low changeup. Benoit came back with another changeup, a fantastic one that dove inside, an unhittable pitch. A-Rod missed it, swinging over the top. The fans booed as he walked back to the dugout. Sometimes it's not easy being the $275 million cleanup hitter.

But Teixeira walked on five pitches. Tigers 3, Yankees 2.

Nothing beats the tension of postseason baseball, especially in Yankee Stadium, with a visiting team trying to pull off the upset, the fans on their feet, too nervous to cheer or boo, it seemed. Maybe we've seen too many ballparks with fans waving towels. Maybe we just haven't seen enough Game 5s or Game 7s in recent years. But this felt like the most pressure-filled October moment in a long time.

Swisher struck out on a 2-2, 96 mph fastball.

Tigers fans exhaled for the first time in 12 minutes.

Benoit had needed 23 pitches to get two outs. The Tigers still needed six more.

Tension? It was punishment for fans on both sides, 166 games of big wins, big home runs and big comebacks, all down to two innings of October baseball. This is why we watch those games when it's 48 degrees and drizzling in April, why we watch those 3-hour games that move slower than a slug in the sun, meaningless games against the Royals or Twins in June. To get here. To six more outs.

As Jeter stepped in with two outs and Brett Gardner on first base in the eighth, Benoit had thrown 36 pitches. He hadn't thrown 37 pitches in a game all season. You can't make that kind of stuff up. On Benoit's 37th pitch, Gardner took off, Jeter took his classic inside-out swing ... Don Kelly took a step or two back, that right-field wall at Yankee Stadium that seems like it was built for wiffleball looming just a few feet behind him ... it looked like it had a chance ... fans reaching over, trying to pull a Jeffrey Maier ... the ball dropping into Kelly's glove.

So of course it came down to Jose Valverde, the man who said the series wouldn't return to New York. All he had to do was retire Granderson, Cano and Rodriguez. The big pitch was a 3-2 fastball to Granderson that he popped up to left. Cano lined softly to center. A-Rod swung through a 94 mph fastball. Game over, Tigers move on, Yankees go home, A-Rod walks off to more boos, the fans not caring that he was playing with a bad knee or that he wasn't the only Yankee to come up short in this series.

* * * *

Three big moments in this game:

1. Home runs from Don Kelly and Delmon Young in the first inning. I criticized Jim Leyland for hitting Kelly second. As we say though: You gotta make the plays, and Don Kelly came through. Kudos.

2. Yanking Ivan Nova after two innings essentially forced Joe Girardi to use CC Sabathia. I didn't like the idea of using CC, and he didn't pitch well. He got four outs but gave up two hits, two walks and the run that proved to be the winning run. Of the 37 pitches he threw, just 19 were for strikes.

3. Yankees third-base coach Rob Thomson held up Rodriguez at third base on Jorge Posada's one-out single in the fourth. Rodriguez had reached the bag right as Austin Jackson picked up the ball. Jackson has a decent arm and threw out eight runners on the season. It probably would have been a bang-bang play, especially with Rodriguez not at 100 percent speed. Tough call for Thomson, but I think he made the right decision, not wanting to potentially ruin a big inning. Russell Martin popped out to first and Gardner fouled out to leave the bases loaded.

* * * *

During his postgame news conference, Leyland said it perfectly: "This will be a game I'll remember the rest of my life." He pointed out he's been on both sides of it. Asked about Kelly's home run, he said, "Sometimes things just work out for you." He then praised Kelly, said it couldn't have happened to a better kid and nearly got choked up, knowing that home run will be with Kelly for the rest of his life.

And that's October baseball. Unsung heroes, big strikeouts, big hits, tension, pain, suffering and ... joy.

And memories. Love the memories.

You can follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Tuesday is a huge day for the MLB postseason, with game after game after game after … well, you get the idea. Keith Law and I looked ahead as well as tackling Monday’s results on Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Colby Lewis, David Price and Mike Napoli did their job, but what about Joe Maddon's decision to go with J.P. Howell? Rays are on the verge of leaving the playoffs.

2. Ultimately Justin Verlander pitched well enough to win, and CC Sabathia did not, but while both managers were making odd choices, Mr. Perfect again shut the door!

3. The Phillies have to face a lefty starter in his home park, where he has thrived. Cole Hamels might be Philly’s No. 3, but he needs to step up Tuesday.

4. Are the Brewers and Diamondbacks evenly matched, or will this be a three-game sweep? KLaw and I debate how Game 3 could go, and whether Arizona’s run is over.

5. The Angels need a GM and the Red Sox have a GM who might be looking to move on. We discuss Theo and Terry and also watching all these former Seattle Mariners play in the playoffs.

So tune in for Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast and have some fun ... as if all these playoff games wasn’t enough!

Did home-plate umpire Gerry Davis cost the Yankees the game last night? There is some feeling that CC Sabathia got squeezed a little more than Justin Verlander. Here, check out the location charts from Brooksbaseball at It's About the Money.

One of the bloggers from the site says both Sabathia and Verlander had five strikes called balls, while Sabathia had 13 balls called strikes and Verlander had 18 balls called strikes. Verlander threw 120 pitches to Sabathia's 106, so if that count is accurate, Verlander did benefit from a couple extra called strikes, but I don't see evidence that Sabathia was getting squeezed in comparison to Verlander.

Look, it looks like ump bashing is going to be a popular theme this year: Tony La Russa did it in the middle of the game of the other night, Joe Girardi whined last night. But the bottom line: Sabathia gave up 13 baserunners in 5.1 innings; that's not the umpire's fault. Verlander pitched through the tight strike zone to strike out 11 batters, while Sabathia could only put away three. As Ian O'Connor writes at ESPNNewYork, CC is to blame, not Davis ... and Sabathia knows that better than anyone.

Not to mention: No team has benefited from more blown calls over the years than the Yankees. I'm not defending Gerry Davis, but strike zones are never going to be perfect As long as the umps get all the calls in the field correct (well, and we avoid the Eric Gregg Strike Zone), I won't complain.

• As Mike McClary points out The Daily Fungo, 12 of Jose Valverde's 19 pitches were called balls. With 53 pitches over two days, I can't foresee Jim Leyland using Valverde to close, unless he's forced to use Joaquin Benoit for a couple innings earlier in the game. Valverde says he'll be ready.
• Bill Baer takes a closer look at Cliff Lee's Game 2 performance, breaking down how many of the 12 hits he allowed were unlucky and how many were Lee's "fault." I agree with Bill's general premise that Lee didn't pitch as poor as his final line indicates and that there's no reason not to expect a vintage Lee outing in his next start (if he gets one, of course). At the same time, I don't really agree with Bill's premise, as he seems to be saying that eight of the 12 hits were lucky. Lee was leaving a lot of balls in the middle of the plate and the Cardinals were hitting those pitches. Remember, at times Lee can be very hittable -- no matter his strikeout/walk ratio. He was one of only nine starters to allow 10 or more at least five times during the regular season. Unlucky a bit? Perhaps. Did he pitch well? No.
• Mike Napoli is awesome.
• Arizona turns to rookie Josh Collmenter in Game 3, over veteran Joe Saunders. As Jack Moore writes, Collmenter relies on deception and his funky over-the-top delivery. Jack reports that Collmenter hasn't pitched as well the second or third time he faces a team; this will be his third start against the Brewers.
• A bunch of notes on the Rangers, including some historic performances of sorts from Colby Lewis (good) and Mike Adams (bad).
• Yes, you know this: The Yankees now turn to A.J. Burnett.
• Finally, for a good laugh: Check out this video on the new movie about the Yankees, "Too Much Moneyball."
  

Who says rain-delayed drama isn’t the best kind? CC Sabathia versus Justin Verlander was the heavyweight title bout we’ve all been waiting for. What Monday night's game lacked in perfect pitching it made up for with a see-saw blend of execution and mishaps, heroics and humble pie.

For all the buildup about Verlander -- who had the best single season on the mound for Detroit since Mickey Lolich in 1971 -- you might have wondered if his season was “just” a season that benefited from an unbalanced schedule. While he had a pair of quality starts against the Yankees this year, they were hardly dominant as he tossed two six-inning, three-run ballgames. Get that in October from your ace, and that’s the sort of game that might net you a no-decision. And on the Tigers’ 2006 pennant-winning team, Verlander wasn’t a world beater in the postseason; he was a 23-year-old phenom behind the team’s veteran hurlers.

Five years later and after Friday night’s washout put things on hold, Verlander came into his first full 2011 postseason start as an ace with something to prove. Four pitches into Monday’s game, with a run already in and with former teammate and MVP frenemy Curtis Granderson standing on third base with a triple, Verlander looked to be proving something not so happy for Tigers fan. But after Granderson came home, Verlander cruised through the next five frames.

For the Bombers, the news couldn’t get much worse than when they saw Yankees relievers warming up in the fifth inning. Really? On a Sabathia night? If the Yankees were looking to get over the Game 3 hump with an advantage, this was definitely not supposed to be part of the program.

New York could thank the Tigers for playing AL East-brand baseball at the plate -- they made Sabathia work at-bat after at-bat. Throwing 106 pitches isn’t a rough night for Sabathia, but 106 pitches without getting through the sixth inning after allowing 13 baserunners? That’s taxation through Tigers representation, making the big man sweat and wear down long before Verlander was anywhere close to being gassed.

The durability of the game’s reigning ace was on display in the seventh, and again in the eighth. In the seventh, the Yankees' ability to tie the game hung on the slightest bit of execution. If Austin Jackson and Jhonny Peralta successfully hooked up on the cutoff after Brett Gardner's run-scoring double to the left-center gap, maybe Russell Martin holds up at third, maybe he’s out at home, and maybe Peralta misses the throw too.

Missing on that play guaranteed a 4-4 tie. But after Delmon Young put the Tigers ahead by blasting a homer to right field in the bottom half of the inning, most skippers might have reached for their 'pen in the eighth -- especially one as well-stocked as the Tigers' corp.

Not Jim Leyland. Verlander came out for the eighth. He’d face the Yankees’ best -- Granderson and Robinson Cano, A-Rod and Mark Teixeira. Whether or not Leyland scrambled to the tunnel for a quick smoke to settle his nerves, we’ll never know. But in that situation he left his best pitcher out there and Verlander delivered. He left the game after throwing 120 pitches. A familiar workload for Verlander, who has matched or topped 120 pitches 10 or more times each of the past three years.

All of which set up Tigers closer Jose Valverde to be the goat or the agent of a self-fulfilling prophecy. With a capacity for drama you’d expect from a guy who already predicted a series win, Valverde put two men on before striking out Yankees captain Derek Jeter. If you can walk the walk, you can talk the talk. After Verlander delivered more proof of his status as an ace in his prime, it might just be the Tigers’ time to roar.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.