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OK, let's be brutally honest here about Jon Lester's complete game 6-1 victory on Monday night: It came against the Seattle Mariners. A lot of pitchers look pretty good against Seattle.

Nonetheless, it was Boston's first nine-inning complete game of the season and first since Josh Beckett threw a shutout last June. In fact, Beckett's shutout was Boston's only nine-inning complete game in 2011.

So it was a good sign that Lester went the distance (he did pitch eight innings in a 3-1 loss to Toronto back in his second start). For a guy who has had difficulty keeping his pitch counts down, he threw 119 pitches. He didn't walk anybody, although he threw first-pitch strikes to just 15 of 34 hitters. He struck out six, which at least was an improvement over his past two starts when he put away just five batters in 11 innings. I don't think we suddenly say the Jon Lester of 2008 through August 2011 is back, but it's a small step forward.

Of course, the Red Sox need a big step forward. Remember the Lester mentioned as a leading Cy Young candidate heading into last season? They need that guy back, if he ever existed in the first place. Lester's career high in innings came back in 2008, his first full season in the majors, when he pitched 210.1 innings. Last season, that total dipped to 191.2. Staff aces need to go deep into games. Imagine what an extra 30 or 40 innings would do in saving innings for the bullpen.

The Red Sox, of course, began the day in last place in the American League East. The Angels and Phillies also began the day in last place in their divisions. All three teams are under .500 and looking for small positives. Lester throws well against the Mariners? Hey, that's a positive. Joe Blanton beats the Astros? That's a positive. Small steps.

It has me wondering: Which of these teams -- all World Series contenders back in March -- is the best bet to take the big steps and reach the postseason? Let's backtrack a bit first.

Here were the odds to win the World Series for the three teams at the start of the season, from a certain gambling website:

Red Sox: 10-1
Angels: 7-1
Phillies: 6-1

And the current odds:

Red Sox: 14-1
Angels: 12-1
Phillies: 10-1

I'm actually surprised those odds haven't fallen a bit more, but it's a reminder that we're not even at the quarter pole yet.

Here were the preseason odds to make the playoffs that ran on ESPN Insider, via Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system:

Red Sox: 61.1 percent
Angels: 68.1 percent
Phillies: 62.2 percent

ESPN's panel of baseball personnel was even more optimistic about the Angels and Phillies. Here were the playoff percentages from the 50-person voting panel back on Opening Day:

Red Sox: 32 percent
Angels: 92 percent
Phillies: 86 percent

Not only were the Angels an overwhelming pick to the make the playoffs, 18 of the 50 voters picked them to win the World Series. Interesting that while Dan's numbers-based projected rated the three teams' playoff odds pretty similarly, the Red Sox were viewed in much less regard by the human prognosticators.

And now, as each team sits under .500? The current playoff odds via Coolstandings.com that run on ESPN.com:

Red Sox: 29.8 percent
Angels: 17.8 percent
Phillies: 31.5 percent

Clay Davenport also calculates projected playoffs odds. His system still likes the Red Sox in particular (percentages entering Monday's games):

Red Sox: 65.9 percent
Angels: 20.8 percent
Phillies: 51.6 percent

Clay projects Boston winning 88 games. Maybe his system views Lester as a Cy Young contender.

Now, this is where I pick which of these three teams will make the playoffs. Of course, all three could make it; not a big surprise if that happens. But if I had to pick one team, it's the Phillies. "Baseball Today" podcast host/KaraBlog author/SweetSpot contributor Eric Karabell says I can't do this; he says I've been bagging on the Phillies too much. He says I have to pick the Angels. I think Karabell is misremembering a few things. After all, I did have the Phillies to win the division and was one of just four of those ESPN folks to have the Angels missing the playoffs.

Look, the Red Sox can pound the old leather. My favorite stat: They have 100 doubles, 24 more than the Royals and at least 40 more than half the teams in baseball. The Angels have the advantage of playing the Mariners and A's 36 times this year, still have that great-on-paper rotation, and you know Albert Pujols will go on a tear at some point (although maybe we don't know that).

But I still see too many question marks on those teams. I need to see Lester and Beckett pitch several good games in a row. I need Vernon Wells and Erick Aybar and a few others hitting for the Angels. So here are five quick reasons I'm voting for the Phillies.

1. National League parity.

The Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks each won at least 94 games last season, but there's a high degree of possibility that no team will win that many in 2012. Heck, no team may win 90. This suggests the two wild cards may only have to win 85 or 86 games or so. Considering the mediocrity we've seen in the NL Central and NL West divisions outside the Cardinals and Dodgers, it seems like a good bet that two wild cards will come out of the NL East.

2. The Phillies' offense is bad ... but so is much pretty much every other team's offense in the NL.

The Phillies rank ninth in the NL in runs scored. They ranked seventh a year ago. Yes, Carlos Ruiz and Juan Pierre are leading the attack right now. The point isn't so much that this is suddenly going to turn into an offensive juggernaut once Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return and once Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino start hitting better, but merely to suggest that the Phillies' offense isn't a huge albatross when you compare it across the league.

3. They have Jonathan Papelbon.

OK, Charlie Manuel hasn't exactly done a good job of using him in high-leverage situations, but in a season where closers are falling prey to injuries and blown saves everywhere you look, Papelbon will still prove a small advantage over 162 games.

4. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels.

I still wouldn't trade them for another trio in baseball.

5. Blanton and Vance Worley.

Blanton lowered his ERA to 2.96 with seven strong innings against Houston on Monday. He has a 35/7 strikeout/walk ratio and has allowed just two home runs in 48.2 innings. Worley is once again proving skeptics wrong, with a 3.07 ERA and 45/15 strikeout/walk ratio in 44 innings. The rotation is five-deep and that depth will slowly show up over 162 games.

What do you think? If you haven't, vote in the poll at the top of the page.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

My parents still love watching baseball, even Seattle Mariners baseball. I called them Monday evening to see if they watched Philip Humber's perfect game on Saturday and my dad said he watched a few innings, went out to the mow the lawn and came back just in time to see the bottom of the ninth.

He then proceeded to complain about Chone Figgins ("He just can't hit.") and Justin Smoak ("Most good hitters don't take three or four years to figure things out."). Hey, he's right. And you can't blame him; he's been watching inept offense for two-plus years now. But then he said something that sums up a problem not unique to the Mariners:

"You know, even with their great pitching staff the Phillies can't win either."

Indeed, the Philadelphia Phillies entered Monday's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 2.46 ERA. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley had allowed just 22 runs in their 13 starts. It doesn't take a Ph.D. in Sabermetrics to realize that's fewer than two runs per start. But after losing 9-5 to Arizona (made closer with a five-run outburst in the ninth inning) the Phillies are now 7-10. That's the same record as the Mariners, and the Phillies have scored just 48 runs, an average of 2.82 runs per game.

That's right, the Philadelphia Phillies -- the five-time defending National League East champs -- have become the Seattle Mariners.

OK, OK ... I kid, Phillies fans. But the Phillies have scored 12 fewer runs than the Mariners, a team whose OPS leader is Brendan Ryan, a guy with a .190 batting average. We all know the laundry list of the Phillies' problems -- Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the disabled list; Jimmy Rollins hitting .242 with no power (two doubles, no home runs) and just four walks; Placido Polanco hitting .185 with one extra-base hit and one RBI; John Mayberry Jr. hitting .205 with no walks and 14 strikeouts. And so on. In fact, it's fair to ask: Where would the Phillies be without Juan Pierre and Ty Wigginton?

Man, those 45-homer seasons from Ryan Howard seem like a long time ago.

What I'm wondering: How many runs do the Phillies need to score to contend for the playoffs? After all, offense is still 50 percent of the game.

Entering Monday's action, the National League was hitting a collective .242/.310/.376 -- a .686 OPS that is 24 points lower than 2011's numbers. That figure takes us back to the offensive levels of 1988 to 1992, when the NL OPS figures were .673, .678, .704, .689 and .684. So one way of looking at this: Let's assume it will take 87 wins to make the playoffs. What's the lowest run total for an NL team from that 1988-1992 period that won at least 87 games?

For you baseball historians out there, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the 1988 Dodgers scored just 628 runs, or 3.88 runs per game. That actually put the Dodgers sixth in a 12-team league. The Dodgers allowed 544 runs and finished 94-67, exceeding their projected record by three wins.

Back to the Phillies. They're on pace to score 457 runs. Obviously, that won't cut it, but of course the offense won't be that bad all season. It will pick up, that we can predict. In 2011, they allowed 529 runs, the lowest full-season total since the 1969 Orioles allowed 517. So if they match the '88 Dodgers' total of 628 runs, they're still in good shape and project as a 93-win team, assuming the same run prevention as 2011.

What will it take to score 628 runs? They'd have to score 580 runs over the final 145 games, or 4.0 runs per game. Or just about what the National League average has been so far -- 3.94 runs per game entering Monday's game.

But just like the offense is likely to improve moving forward, the pitching staff probably won't match last season's historic stinginess. With Cliff Lee heading to the DL over the weekend with a strained oblique, we see the precariousness of relying so much on a few starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks lit up Kyle Kendrick, Lee's replacement, for 11 hits and seven runs in three innings on Monday. Kendrick had a nice season in 2011, posting a 3.22 ERA over 114.2 innings, including 15 starts. Kendrick, however, lives on a fine line of success. Among 145 pitchers last season with at least 100 innings, his strikeout rate ranked 138th. So as he steps in for Lee -- who may miss a month, meaning four or five starts -- don't expect a 3.22 ERA from Kendrick.

That's just one reason to expect the staff to allow a few more runs. Let's say 30 more than a year ago. That's 559 runs. Now that '88 Dodgers total of 628 runs projects to a win total of ... 89.5.

That might still be enough to squeak into the playoffs. Four runs a game. That's all you need, Phillies fans.

But what if the Phillies average 3.8 runs per game the rest of the season instead of 4.0? That projects to 599 runs scored.

And 86 wins. One run every five games. A couple of extra bloops or bleeders per week. A few ground balls with eyes. The difference between making the playoffs and going home.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

On Monday’s Baseball Today podcast Mark Simon and I revealed our thoughts on many pertinent topics dealing with this great game:

1. As part of our homework assignment we predicted win totals for each and every team, made them clear on the show and compared results. Very interesting!

2. Should we feel sorry for injured Reds closer Ryan Madson? One of us rants a bit on this one, as well as the Phillies missing Wilson Valdez.

3. What’s Davey Johnson doing with his closer situation in D.C.? Again, an interesting topic with surprising results.

4. Who is most likely to have a four-triple game? It has happened before, and while it wasn’t the awesome Doug Flynn, he came close.

5. Lots of emails today! Among the topics were Johnny Damon, contenders for a long hitting streak, what to do at Citi Field, and keeping an eye on Shlobotnicks when they leave your favorite team!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast, as ridiculous isn’t merely a word that defines some of our emails ...

• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski asks: Is there another Jose Bautista lingering near the bottom of the ESPN 500 list? Dan throws out some interesting names, including Travis Snider and Pedro Alvarez, although both of them were former first-round picks and one-time top prospects. Of course, what makes any Bautista comparison difficult is that he hasn't just had a couple of nice seasons out of nowhere; he's had two seasons that made him one of the best players in baseball. There may be a more systematic way of doing this: Check players who were (A) never top prospects; (B) had some time in the majors before blossoming into an MVP candidate. I have to think Bautista is fairly unique in this regard. Worth looking at during some down time.
• Tristan Cockcroft has a list of players he's not excited about. Tristan is writing for a fantasy baseball audience, but I like his support evidence. Names such as Adam Wainwright and Dee Gordon will provide some debate.
• Eric Karabell has updated his fantasy top 100. He's sticking with Ryan Braun at No. 1.
• One more link from our fantasy department: AJ Mass looks at the Rays and whether the hype surrounding Matt Moore is justified.
• Mets Today has a roundup of all the fallout from the court decision regarding the Mets.
• Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece on ESPNLosAngeles.com on the Clayton Kershaw-Tim Lincecum rivalry.
• How do the Brewers replace Prince Fielder? In Part 1 of a 2012 preview, Disciples of Uecker examines whether Aramis Ramirez will come close to Fielder's 2011 production.
• Harper Gordek is worried about a Nationals lineup that may open up with Rick Ankiel hitting fifth. Can the pitching staff prevent enough runs to make the Nationals contenders?
• Michael Baumann on Chase Utley, Freddy Galvis and panic (or lack of it) in Philly.
• Brenden Lowery breaks down Carlos Santana and his approach from both sides of the plate in 2011. With heat maps!
• Craig Brown examines the Royals trade in which they acquired catcher Humberto Quintero to fill in for the injured Salvador Perez and outfielder Jason Bourgeois. If the word "train wreck" is used as descriptive medicine, it may not be a cure.
• Here's what the Red Sox's 25-man roster may look like.
• One thing the Twins have: Guys who can play center field. With Denard Span, Ben Revere, Joe Benson and prospect Aaron Hicks, should the Twins consider dealing from their surplus?
• Chris Quick with an interesting study on Giants infielder Emmanuel Burriss: With his lack of power what are the odds he can be of some value at the plate?
• Will first base be a problem for the Cardinals?
• Ramon Santiago for Tigers MVP!
• Finally, a fun list of the top 10 final seasons, in honor of Will Clark's 2000.

To celebrate the Baseball Today podcast returning to daily shows (Monday through Friday), Mark Simon and I covered many fun topics to get the week started:

1. The Nationals did the right thing sending prospect Bryce Harper to Triple-A, but the surprising part of the news is his position change.

2. With the news from Phillies camp that Chase Utley could be out for a while, is the NL East race really up for grabs? We also talk about the Royals and Padres losing key players.

3. And then there are the Mets. Poor Mark. However, the news from Monday morning actually could be viewed as a positive.

4. In our Simon Says segment, Mark discusses Andy Pettitte’s slider and why it should make him effective again. Hey, the Yankees might really need him.

5. More emails than normal were read, featuring defense, Ozzie Guillen’s ejections and, of course, the all-important ridiculous question of the day.

So download and listen to a fun Monday edition of Baseball Today, the first of more than seven months of entertaining, informative baseball discussion!

OK, let's do some quick math.

By worst-case scenario, I don't mean "Chase Utley out of for the year, Ryan Howard out for the year, Roy Halladay injures his shoulder" and so on.

But let's try a few assumptions and see how that could affect the Phillies' bottom line in terms of wins and losses.

1. Chase Utley misses half of the season.

We'll slot Freddy Galvis in his place. Projecting Utley with the same numbers as last season, this would be a net loss of about 15 runs over 300 plate appearances.

2. Ryan Howard misses half of the season.

While Howard is no longer the $20 million superstar his contract suggests, he did create 97 runs in 644 plate appearances. Some combo of John Mayberry, Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome isn't going to match that, especially if Wigginton gets too much playing time. Let's say 10 runs worse over 300 plate appearances.

3. Declines from Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco and Hunter Pence.

The first three are a year older. Pence played out of his mind for two months. Let's say 25 runs worse.

4. Decline from Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley.

I'm not talking huge drop-offs here, but it's hard to imagine the Big Three doing any better. Halladay allowed 74 runs in 2010, 65 a year ago (albeit in fewer innings). In Lee's first stint with the Phillies, he allowed 35 runs in 12 starts; in 2011, he allowed 66 in 32 starts. Hamels allowed six fewer runs than 2010. Worley exceeded expectations as a rookie. Let's give eight runs to Halladay, 10 Hamels, 12 to Lee and 15 to Worley. That's 45 more runs allowed.

5. Decline from bullpen/No. 5 starter.

The Phillies' bullpen was effective in 2011 with a 3.45 ERA. Jonathan Papelbon-for-Ryan Madson should be an equal exchange but some of the other guys may not match their 2011 numbers. Same goes for spot starter Kyle Kendrick (3.22 ERA). Plus there's the loss of Roy Oswalt to consider. Let's give 15 more runs to the bullpen and 15 more from the No. 5 slot in the rotation.

So we're losing 50 runs on offense and adding 75 runs on defense.

That gives us 663 runs scored and 604 runs allowed ... that's still good for 88 wins.

Is that a conservative worst-case scenario? No, it's actually a pretty ambitious decline of 14 fewer wins. Since 1996, 17 teams have won 100 games. Their average decline the following season is minus-6.6 wins. The five biggest declines:

2001-02 Mariners: -23 wins
2005-06 Cardinals: -17 wins
1998-99 Yankees: -16 wins
1999-00 D-backs: -15 wins
2009-10 Yankees: -8 wins
1999-00 Braves: -8 wins

It's no surprise that the 2001-02 Mariners and 1998-99 Yankees suffered big declines considering they were coming off seasons of 116 and 114 wins. The 2005-06 Cardinals declined almost exclusively due to a big increase in runs allowed, 634 to 762 (Jason Marquis stayed in the rotation all season despite a 6.02 ERA). That team won the NL Central with just 83 wins and then the World Series. The 1999-00 Diamondbacks had a big drop in offense; Matt Williams and Jay Bell combined for 73 home runs and 254 RBIs in '99, 30 and 115 in 2000.

Anyway, the bottom line: This is how good Halladay, Lee and Hamels are. This Phillies can lose Utley and Howard for half the season and still rate as the favorites in the NL East.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

There's a disturbing trend in Chase Utley's batting averages that a lot of Phillies fans don't like to acknowledge. It goes like this: .332, .292, .282, .275, .259.

You can do the same thing his yearly OPS figures: .976, .915, .905, .832, .769.

Now comes word that Utley is doubtful for Opening Day because of issues with both knees. So you have an aging, declining player who missed the first 45 games of 2011 with knee tendinitis now battling two bad knees.

Utley has survived several injuries in his career to remain one of the best second basemen in baseball. He spent 31 days on the disabled list in 2007 with a broken bone in his right hand, had offseason hip surgery following the Phillies' World Series title in 2008, and spent 49 days on the DL in 2010 with torn ligaments in his thumb. He's often bounced back quicker than expected. Following his hip surgery, he was expected to be out until May, but was in the Opening Day lineup. There was belief last spring that he'd be out until the All-Star break or later, but he returned May 23.

But he's now 33, hasn't played yet this spring, and is off to see a "specialist." It sounds ominous.

The Phillies' replacement options for Utley:

1. Freddy Galvis. The team's potential shortstop of the future, Galvis is a 22-year-old who spent most of 2011 in Double-A. While he carries a good-glove reputation, his bat is questionable. ZiPS projects his batting line at .261/.299/.359. Even with his decline in production, Utley created about 64 runs in 454 plate appearances in 2011. Galvis' line translates to about 41 runs created over 454 appearances.

2. Michael Martinez. The club's utility player a season ago, Martinez is a speedster who can play all positions on the field and not hit at any of them, as he showed with a .198/.258/.282 line in 234 PAs in 2011.

3. Ty Wigginton. Brought in to play first base until Ryan Howard returns from his injury, Wigginton has "played" second base in the past. Quote marks needed to emphasize the fact that it would be like putting a statue in the middle infield. Not a great option, especially since he's not much with the bat, either, but the Phillies could slide John Mayberry Jr. to first base (with an occasional appearance from Jim Thome) and go with some form of Juan Pierre/Domonic Brown/Laynce Nix in left field.

Galvis might be the best option, especially since Wigginton might be needed to fill in some at third base for Placido Polanco (he just suffered a sprained finger), who battled his own hip problems a season ago and is now 36.

Look, none of this is surprising. The Phillies are an old team with several players with recent injury issues. Players don't tend to get healthier as they move into their mid-30s.

We can't speculate yet how long Utley will be out. The Phillies won 102 games last season even though he played just 103 games. They scored 713 runs last season, and while that was a big drop from their offensive heyday a few years ago, it was still good for seventh in the NL. But without Howard for at least a couple of months and possibly without Utley for an extended period of time, and with a lineup that might end up seeing a lot of Pierre and Wigginton, this could end up being one of the worst offenses in the league.

Which means Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are going to have to win a lot of 3-2 games.

The Philadelphia Phillies set a franchise record with 102 wins in 2011, eclipsing the 101-win totals of 1976 and 1977.

The season, of course, ended in bitter disappointment when Chris Carpenter outdueled Roy Halladay 1-0 in Game 5 of the Division Series.

What's in store for the Phillies in 2012? They bring back their three aces, but Ryan Howard will miss at least two months with his Achilles injury. Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome will likely get most of the action at first base until Howard returns, and considering Wigginton had lackluster numbers last season in Colorado (.242/.315/.416) and Thome hasn't played in the field since one game with the White Sox in 2007, that could be an issue.

On the other hand, they'll have Hunter Pence for an entire season and can hope Chase Utley plays more than 103 games. Raul Ibanez left via free agency, and while he hit 20 home runs and drove in 84 runs, he also posted a terrible .289 on-base percentage and had little range in left field. No matter who ends up getting playing time out there -- John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, Domonic Brown -- it should prove to be at least a minor upgrade.

As good as the Big Three of Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are, the Phillies will have to get production from their fourth and fifth starters to match last season's league-best 529 runs allowed. Vance Worley surprised as a rookie, going 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA. Roy Oswalt is gone, leaving Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick battling for the fifth spot.

What do you think? The Vegas over/under line on the Phillies is 95.5 wins.

Baseball America released its list of the top 100 prospects. The BA guys do a great job and I heartily recommend their annual Prospect Handbook, which ranks the top 30 prospects for each team.

Anyway, while the list includes 45 pitchers, 20 outfielders and 12 third basemen, it includes just two second basemen -- Cory Spangenberg of the Padres (No. 78) and Kelton Wong of the Cardinals (No. 93). That tally isn't much different from the other top 100 lists we've seen: ESPN Insider Keith Law had no second basemen on his top 100 and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus also had just Spangenberg and Wong.

Now there's an obvious reason why second basemen don't receive much respect from prospect gurus: A lot of minor league shortstops end up as second basemen in the majors. Maybe they don't have the hands or arm to remain at shortstop or simply outgrow the position; but if they can hit they can move to second base (or even third). But minor league second basemen? If they were major league-caliber players, they'd be playing shortstop in the minors.

That's the conventional wisdom anyway.

But is it true? I looked at the top 14 major league second basemen heading into 2012. You can argue with the list, but once we get past this 14 we get into guys like Omar Infante and Darwin Barney and nobody ranks prospects hoping they turn into Darwin Barney.

Dustin Pedroia: A shortstop at Arizona State, Pedroia played 132 minor league games at shortstop and 131 at second base. He was ranked No. 77 on BA's pre-2006 list but then fell out of the top 100 pre-2007, in part because it became clear he wouldn't stick at shortstop (and concerns about his ability to hit for power).

Robinson Cano: Played third, short and second his first season in the minors, second and short his second season and then settled in permanently at second by age 20. Never a top-100 prospect.

Chase Utley: A first-round pick out of UCLA, Utley played his first two professional seasons at second and then played third base in 2002 at Triple-A. Coincidentally, it was pre-2003 when he finally appeared on Baseball America's top-100 prospect list. He moved back to second base that season, but accumulated a few too many major league plate appearances to be considered a prospect pre-2004.

Ian Kinsler: Drafted in the 17th round as a shortstop out of Missouri, Kinsler did stick at short for two professional seasons and cracked the top-100 list at No. 98 pre-2005. He moved to second base that year and despite hitting 23 home runs at Triple-A fell out of the top 100.

Ben Zobrist: He did play shortstop throughout the minors but was never a top-100 prospect due to a lack of power (just 23 home runs in 1336 minor league at-bats).

Brandon Phillips: He was ranked No. 20 pre-2002 and No. 7 pre-2003 while still a shortstop. He moved to second base in his first big league stint with Cleveland in 2003 (Omar Vizquel was still around) and remained there.

Rickie Weeks: The second pick in the 2003 draft, Weeks has always been a bat-first second baseman.

Dan Uggla: Never a top-100 prospect -- in fact, the Marlins got him from the Diamondbacks in the Rule 5 draft when Arizona left him off its 40-man roster after he'd hit .297 with 21 home runs at Double-A. He played some third base earlier in the minors but had more career games at second (and only 18 at shortstop).

Danny Espinosa: The No. 66 prospect pre-2011, Espinosa was a shortstop in the minors.

Howie Kendrick: A second baseman throughout the minors, Kendrick ranked No. 12 pre-2006 after a monster .367 season between Class A and Double-A.

Dustin Ackley: He played outfield and first base in college but the Mariners turned him into a second baseman after drafting him second overall in 2009. Nobody has ever doubted his bat.

Neil Walker: One of the stranger cases, Walker four times ranked in BA's top 100 -- three times as a catcher, once as a third baseman. Had only played 21 games at second base when the Pirates decided to play him there in 2010.

Kelly Johnson: We'll call him a converted a shortstop although he spent his final season in the minors in the outfield.

Jemile Weeks: Like his brother, he's been nothing but a second baseman. Mama Weeks apparently did not bless her sons with great arms.

So here's the final tally:

• Basically second basemen: 7 (Cano, Utley, Weeks times two, Uggla, Kendrick, Ackley).
• Converted shortstops: 5 (Kinsler, Zobrist, Phillips, Espinosa, Johnson). Although Kinsler converted to second in Double-A.
• 2B/SS: 1 (Pedroia).
• Converted 3B: 1 (Walker).

This doesn't mean the prospect lists are wrong -- obviously a guy who only plays second base in the minors has less long-term positional flexibility than a shortstop. Baseball America had 11 shortstops in its top 100; maybe only seven or eight end up sticking at shortstop, but guys like Nick Franklin and Jonathan Schoop could have enough bat to play second or third. This is more to point out that many of the best second basemen in the majors were second basemen in the minors. And that somewhere out there is the next Robinson Cano or Ian Kinsler.

Chase Utley’s numbers have dipped significantly over the past two seasons as the Philadelphia Phillies second baseman has battled through some injuries.

Utley’s biggest decline has come against left-handed pitching. In 2009, he hit .288 with 11 home runs against lefties, then followed that by hitting .294 with 10 home runs against them in 2010.

In 2011, Utley plummeted to a .187 batting average with two home runs in 107 at-bats. Along with that dip in production came an increase in Utley’s groundball rate against left-handed pitching.

As the chart on the right shows, Utley went from hitting groundballs about 35 percent of the time against lefties to doing so nearly half the time.

Below is a heat map that shows where Utley was most/least likely to hit for power when facing a left-handed pitcher.

Getting back to the form he previously showed will be a key to any potential improvement from him in 2012. How do you think Utley will fare in 2012? Discuss in the comments section.

As we discussed in the first installment yesterday, performance at different positions invariably moves around a bit from year to year, but what about at the skill positions up the middle?

It seems as if not a winter goes by when you won’t wind up reading stories about the shortage of good catching (followed by the arrival of Koyie Hill on your team’s roster), or how landing people who can contribute at shortstop in the major leagues is difficult.

It’s sort of nonsense, because when you get right down to it, the standards for offense at catcher are stronger now than they were when we had just 26 or 28 teams. The amount of offense you can expect from your shortstops relative to league offense is higher now than it was in the glory days of the shortstop trinity of the ’90s, when Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez seemed to redefine offense from a position where Barry Larkin and Cal Ripken had been the standard.

But at the same time, we’re seeing players like Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia rank among the best players in baseball at second base, while Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Kemp might have deserved their leagues’ respective MVP awards for their seasons in center.

First, let’s start with the performance levels from second base, shortstop, catcher and center field, from 1987-2011, using Clay Davenport’s Equivalent Average as our rough year-to-year guide. As noted before, .260 is the single-season baseline for the major leagues.

Straightaway, you can see how on one level the skill position versus corner position distinction comes across as a bit arbitrary, because it’s clear that center field isn’t like the other skill positions. Indeed, last year it ranked as the third-most productive position, behind first base and right field. With that in mind, what does this mean?

Center field is strong, but not that strong. Historically, center fielders have always delivered more at the plate than all of the other up-the-middle slots, and also more than third basemen have in the past 25 years, averaging .269 over that time to the .267 teams have gotten from the hot corner.

What’s unusual these days is that center fielders did more good on offense in 2011 than third basemen and left fielders, something fairly rare. The last time anything like that happened was in 1984 -- a year when center fielders led both leagues in homers, Tony Armas winning the AL crown outright with 43 bombs for Boston, while Dale Murphy tied Mike Schmidt with 36 in the NL. But that was also a season when both leagues boasted a half-dozen really good players in center.

However, the standards for excellence in center field were higher, much higher, in the late ’60s and early ’70s, and were of course higher in the ’50s, when Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Duke Snider and Larry Doby ruled the middle pasture. In 1954, center field was baseball’s premium offensive position, with a .287 EqA. So, not to knock Kemp or Ellsbury, or Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen, but as good as they are, this isn’t a new golden age for center fielders.

Second base has passed third base. I got into this a bit yesterday, and this might be considered a transient phenomenon, because it has been historically. However, do you really want to bet against Cano, Pedroia and Ian Kinsler? What if Jemile Weeks and Dustin Ackley break out as sophomores? What if Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson and Aaron Hill all have great bounce-back seasons? What if Rickie Weeks and Chase Utley were healthy all year? But that last point is part of the problem for sustained greatness at the keystone: It’s a physically demanding position, and being a great player for any length of time at second base requires a huge element of skill and a little bit of luck when it comes to staying healthy.

Now, if they all come through, then sure, we could see a multiyear run for second base to wind up as a bigger impact offensive position than third base. But I’ll believe it after we see it.

Who needs the Trinity at short? The offensive standard for short has been higher over the past decade than it ever was at any point since division play started back in 1969. Remember, that’s despite four rounds of expansion.

Looking back, what really made Jeter and A-Rod and Nomar stand out, as Larkin and Trammell or Ripken and Robin Yount had stood out, was that they were pretty much alone. That’s because there were superstars and then there was a lot of reason to love Omar Vizquel or Edgar Renteria, because things got ugly fast. You don’t really want to remember Neifi Perez, do you? Desi Relaford? I’ve probably brought up Rey Ordonez one time too often for polite conversation.

Today, you still have the lamentably necessary guys like Yuniesky Betancourt or Ronny Cedeno, or Alcides Escobar’s on-the-job education in the major leagues, but if these represent the worst, they’re better than the bottom of the heap that existed in the past. The floor has come up, and we still have the true superstars, like Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes. Let’s revel in their time, and also remember the Trinity, Ripken and Larkin as fondly as they deserve.

Catcher’s deep, still. Or, consider this another reason to not pardon the Angels for handicapping themselves with Jeff Mathis all these years, because there’s a difference between respecting a good receiver and ignoring his other responsibilities to playing baseball. (While we’re at it, there’s even less excuse for Drew Butera.)

Admittedly, being able to get Mike Napoli away from that kind of decision making and putting him in Texas is one way to improve matters. But keep in mind, with Victor Martinez moving out from behind the plate while Buster Posey and Joe Mauer missed big chunks of the season, catchers overall did a better job of contributing on offense in 2011 than they had in any year since 1997, so the overall depth behind the plate looks pretty good.

As you’ll notice from the chart, there’s been a lot of zigzagging around in catcher performance; it often drops behind shortstop, but sometimes tops it, and these days the two positions are running in tandem. Folks might still swear by Johnny Bench, but here again, we’ve got a lot of legitimate star-level talent out there; not just Posey and Mauer and Napoli, but also Brian McCann, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero, Carlos Santana and Yadier Molina. Then you can add in the durable catch-and-throw guys from the Jim Sundberg set, useful contributors at the plate and good receivers behind it: Carlos Ruiz, Matt Wieters, Russell Martin, and even Kurt Suzuki.

Put all of that together, and while we haven’t punched up this generation’s reputations with any special mystique, they can let their production be our guide. This may well be the deepest generation of catching talent in the history of the game, and there’s more coming, even with prospects like Wil Myers and Jesus Montero moving out from behind the dish. We still haven’t seen Jarrod Saltalamacchia really bust out. Austin Romine, Wilin Rosario, Derek Norris and Tony Sanchez are all on the way. If you love catching, you should love the present.

Tomorrow, to wrap things up we’ll have some fun talking about who best represents an average player at their respective positions.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

Jimmy Rollins didn't get the five-year contract he was allegedly seeking. He didn't even get a guaranteed four-year contract. Rollins and the Phillies have agreed on a three-year deal with a vesting option for a fourth year.

Rollins will be 33 for the 2012 season. Assuming he stays healthy the first three years, the fourth season will take him through his age-36 season. With Chase Utley -- he's the same age as Rollins -- also signed for two more seasons, my first thought about the Rollins contract: Has a team won with a middle infield that old?

Well, the answer is ... yes. In 2011. By the postseason, the Cardinals' primary double-play combo was 33-year-old Nick Punto and 33-year-old Rafael Furcal. They weren't the primary regulars during the season, as Skip Schumacher and Ryan Theriot (both 31) got the most innings at second and shortstop. Still, that's a rarity; over the past five seasons, the only playoff teams where both members of the double-play combo were older than 30 were the 2010 and '11 Phillies, the 2009 Twins (Punto and Orlando Cabrera) and the 2009 Dodgers (Orlando Hudson and Furcal).

Overall, the ages of Rollins and Utley don't bother me too much for the next couple of seasons, as both are superior athletes who remain solid hitters for their positions. Neither are as good as they were in 2007, when the Phillies' began their impressive run of five straight playoff appearances. This is apparent in their OPS+ totals since 2007:

Rollins: 119, 103, 87, 85, 101
Utley: 146, 135, 137, 123, 109

It's also evidenced by their Baseball Info Solutions runs saved totals compared to an average fielder at their position (per 1,200 innings):

Rollins: +5, +15, -2, +11, -2
Utley: +15, +28, +11, +17, +7

The other issue, of course, is the ability of both to remain healthy. Rollins has missed 94 games the past two seasons, Utley 106. Rollins missed 74 games in 2010 with a variety of calf, hamstring and foot injuries, and missed three weeks in 2011 with a pulled groin. Utley missed time in 2010 with a thumb injury and in 2011 with a knee problem. You can argue that those were freak injuries, that Utley is recoved from his knee injury, that Rollins played 142 games in 2011. Maybe that's true, but this is what happens to most players as they age.

The other issue for the Phillies is that they had the oldest lineup in the majors in 2011, averaging 31.5 years of age (weighted for number of plate appearances). Placido Polanco will be 36, Rollins, Utley and Carlos Ruiz will be 33, Ryan Howard 32, Shane Victorino 31. They will replace 39-year-old Raul Ibanez with younger legs in left field and they'll have Hunter Pence for a full season, but the offensive declines of Rollins and Utley mirror the decline of a once-feared attack:

Phillies' runs scored:

2007: 892
2008: 799
2009: 820
2010: 772
2011: 713

With Ryan Howard likely out for three months and nearly all the other regulars a year older, is there reason to be optimistic that the Phillies will score more runs in 2011? And, no, Ty Wigginton isn't the answer to "yes."

Of course, despite that declining offense, the Phillies have increased their victory total each season during their playoff run: from 89 to 92 to 93 to 97 to 102. It's an impressive accomplishment, but I think the Phillies will be hard-pressed to improve for a fifth year in a row.

Some stuff to check before tonight's game begins!

• Over at It's About the Money, Hippeaux points out that impatience against Doug Fister could be key for the Yankees.
• Brien Jackson points out that the Yankees have the Game 5 starter they planned on all along.
• ESPNNewYork.com's Rob Parker likes the Yankees' chances with Ivan Nova on the mound.
• If the Tigers load the bases ... they need to take advantage, something they haven't done well this season.
• Buster Olney talks about the playoffs and Tigers-Yankees Game 5. Tim Kurkjian looks ahead to Cardinals-Phillies Game 5.
• Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com reports that the Rangers may go to 12-man pitching staff for the ALCS. Richard also reports: Don't throw Adrian Beltre fastballs.
• The other day, I listed the hitters who had highest WPA (win probability added) in a single postseason game. It was basically a list of guys who delivered late-game or winning hits. Kirk Gibson's Game 1 home run in the 1988 topped the list with a WPA score of .870. Anyway, with tonight's Game 5, over at Baseball-Reference.com, Steve Lombardi found only four players who had two games with a WPA score of .2 or higher in a sudden-death game.
  
  
  --Yogi Berra, Yankees: Went 2-for-3, with two home runs, two walks and four RBIs in a 9-0 win over Brooklyn in Game 7 of the 1956 World Series; his two-run homers came in the first and third innings and staked the Yankees to a 4-0 lead. Also went 1-for-4 with a walk and four RBIs in the famous Game 7 loss to the Pirates in 1960. His three-run homer in the sixth tied the game 4-4 and he walked and scored in the eighth.
  --Mickey Mantle, Yankees: 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBIs in 1952's Game 7 4-2 victory over Brooklyn. His home run in the sixth put the Yankees ahead and his RBI single in the seventh added an insurance run. In the 1960 game, he went 3-for-5 with two RBIs.
  --Keith Hernandez, Cardinals/Mets: In the 1982 World Series, he went 2-for-3 with two walks against the Brewers. His two-run single in the sixth tied it 3-3 and he walked and scored in the eighth, helping stretch a 4-3 lead to 6-3. In 1986, he went just 1-for-4 against the Red Sox, but his two-run single with two outs in the sixth off Bruce Hurst cut the Mets' deficit from 3-0 to 3-2. He added a sac fly in the seventh.
  --Tony Womack, Diamondbacks: Yes, the surprise name on the list. In the 2001 Division Series, he went 3-for-5, including the winning hit with two outs in the ninth. And against the Yankees in the World Series, his one-out double in the bottom of the ninth off Mariano Rivera tied the game.
• Another post at Baseball-Reference.com: I wrote about Albert Pujols' play on Chase Utley last night. John Austin did the math on the play and reports that Utley was taking the bigger risk by trying to reach third.
• In non-playoff stuff, Troy Patterson of Fire Brand of the AL breaks down the Theo Epstein-to-the-Cubs rumor and points out the Cubs may actually be a dream job for a GM. Yes, even with the Alfonso Soriano contract.

We pretty much know everything about baseball players. We know how they hit at home and on the road, how they hit in clutch situations and in night games and against finesse pitchers and with two outs and runners in scoring position. We know how well they can hit sliders away, what their line-drive percentage is, their ability to turn the double play, how often they go first to third and how often runners go first to third on them. We can compare them to others and determine their value. We can predict with a good amount of accuracy how they'll perform next season.

But for the infinite amount of data points we track and digest and break down, there is a lot we can't measure that still goes into winning and losing baseball games. And thank goodness for that. Albert Pujols made one of those plays Wednesday in Game 4 of the Phillies-Cardinals National League Division Series, a play remarkable in its instinct and awareness, a play I can't imagine another first baseman even attempting. (Maybe I'm wrong there; I don't know. Maybe Keith Hernandez would have made such a play back in the day, or Don Mattingly.)

Chase Utley had walked leading off the sixth. Hunter Pence grounded deep in the hole to shortstop. It was going to be a bang-bang play at first. Utley kept going as he rounded second, but Pujols somehow sensed Utley's hustle, left the bag early when accepting the throw and gunned down Utley at third base. Pujols had magically turned a possible first-and-third situation with no outs into a far less dangerous situation. Edwin Jackson then retired Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino to preserve the Cardinals' 3-2 lead, which David Freese padded with a two-run blast to center field in the bottom of the inning.

Pujols chose risk over risk-averse. Maybe the smart play would have been to stretch for the throw and hope it nailed Pence. Certainly, the sabermetric take would be to take the out, especially with the strikeout-prone Howard on deck. Pujols opened up the potential for a big inning if he didn't make the play.

But this is where we throw the numbers aside and simply applaud Pujols for a great play. He doesn't have time to study the run probability factors as he sees Utley darting for third base. Instead, he made a play. Isn't that what October baseball is supposed to be about? (Also: I liked Utley's calculated gamble; he was trying to make a play as well. For him, it didn't work out, and maybe he'll be criticized and second-guessed, but for a team struggling to score runs, getting to third base would have been a key base in a one-run game.)

* * * *

What a series this has been. It deserves a Game 5, and we'll get it back in Philadelphia, with aces Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter facing off. It was nice to see Matt Holliday back in the St. Louis lineup (he went 1-for-3 with two runs scored Wednesday), although I'm not really sure he's any better at the plate right now than Allen Craig until he proves he can drive the ball.

One big difference for the teams is clearly the bench strength. While Tony La Russa has Craig or Holliday, plus Ryan Theriot or Skip Schumaker, the Phillies are basically left with Raul Ibanez or John Mayberry, whoever doesn't start in left, and unlikely Game 3 hero Ben Francisco (not sure why Charlie Manuel didn't hit Francisco or Mayberry for Ibanez against Arthur Rhodes leading off the seventh).

La Russa was able to get the matchups he wanted in Game 4 -- Rhodes against Ibanez and then Marc Rzepczynski against Ryan Howard in the eighth.

Howard struck out with the tying run on second, and if Game 5 is close, you know La Russa will save his two left-handed relievers for him (and maybe even Jaime Garcia for an out if needed). Howard is 0-for-11 with six strikeouts since his two-run single in the first inning of Game 2, and it seems imperative he do some sort of damage off Carpenter since he looks pretty helpless against lefties right now.

Of course, maybe the Phillies won't need many runs to back Halladay. Maybe they'll need only one. Maybe Albert Pujols will go yard. Maybe Chase Utley will do something. You can analyze and talk about odds and percentages, but it's October: We don't know what will happen. Somebody will have to make a play.