SweetSpot: Chipper Jones



Baseball lore is full of great scouting stories, like the tale of the scout who was driving through rural Maryland one day and stopped to ask a kid working in a field for directions. The kid -- future Hall of Fame Jimmie Foxx -- raised his plow with one arm and pointed: "That way."

The scout, seeing the kid's raw strength, asked him the obvious question: "Do you play baseball?"

Who knows, maybe Brandon Beachy will become one of those stories.

Beachy played mostly third base and first base at Indiana Wesleyan and pitched a little, but went undrafted. A Braves area scout named Gene Kerns saw Beachy one July evening pitching in relief in the Virginia Valley League, a college summer league. He saw a kid with good size throwing in the low 90s.

After the game, he asked Beachy if he'd been drafted. (He wouldn't be allowed to talk to him if he had.) When Beachy said no, Kerns, as he relayed in a 2011 interview, then asked the obvious question: "Do you have an interest in professional baseball?"

Kerns convinced the club to sign him as a non-drafted free agent. Barely two years later, Beachy was in the major leagues. Now, after a sterling rookie season, Beachy is 5-1 after throwing his first major league complete game and shutout in a 7-0 victory over the Marlins. Beachy threw 122 pitches, struck out six, walked nobody, allowed four singles and one double and showcased why he leads the major leagues with a 1.33 ERA.

In less than four years he has gone from an undrafted college infielder to minor league reliever to maybe-he's-a-prospect to major league starter to ... well, what do we call him now? The most underrated pitcher in baseball? A possible All-Star? I'm not sure. For now, let's just call him very good.

Beachy isn't overpowering, usually settling in around 90-91 mph with his four-seamer, occasionally cranking it up to 94. He gets some running sink/cut on his fastball, although it's not a cutter. He tweeted earlier this season that "No, I don't throw a cutter. Just 4-seams and an occasional 2." He mixes in a changeup, a slow curve (72-74 mph) that he commands well and a slider. Yes, he relies to some extend on a deceptive delivery that makes it difficult for batters to pick up the ball, but he's excelling on more than deception; his stuff is better than advertised.

He was in control all game against the Marlins. They did get two runners on with two out in the fifth, but Jose Reyes lined out to right. In the seventh, Giancarlo Stanton doubled to lead off the inning and Chipper Jones made a nice diving stop on Gaby Sanchez for the first out. Beachy induced Emilio Bonifacio to ground out to second on a 94-mph four-seamer and then struck out Brett Hayes on a lovely changeup.

From there it was six up, six down and the shutout.

Last season, Baseball America ranked Beachy as Atlanta's No. 8 prospect, behind more heralded arms Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Arodys Vizcaino. But Beachy beat out Minor -- a former No. 1 pick -- for the No. 5 rotation slot out of spring training and never looked back. He made 25 starts and finished 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA, striking out 169 batters in 141.2 innings, the highest strikeout in the majors for pitchers with at least 100 innings.

His biggest issue as a rookie was an inability to pitch deep into games. The strikeouts were nice, but also meant he ran up his pitch counts, leading to early exits. He pitched seven innings just twice. Thursday was the fourth time in eight starts that he's gone at least seven. While his strikeout rate is down -- 6.5 Ks per nine -- he has been even more effective. His ground ball rate is up from 33.8 percent to 43.1 percent, he has allowed just one home run in 54 innings and his walks are down. There may be a little luck going on here --- the home run rate is absurdly low for a fly-ball pitcher and his .214 BABIP will surely rise -- but at this point you have to call him one of the best pitchers in the majors.

I asked Braves fans if they've been surprised by Beachy's sophomore campaign. A few responses:
  • "That dominant game from Beachy tonight is just a continuation of the good work he's been doing this year. Kid's got the goods." -- @jackson_todd
  • "Beachy has earned everything through hard work and dedication. I was surprised when he came up but not this year." -- @PaulGrey27
  • "Not surprised that he's been the Braves best pitcher. Very surprised that he's been THIS good." -- @JUnderwood9
  • "biggest surprise is continued ability to get swinging strikes on the fastball up, even when sitting 91-93. Huge asset." --@puckhoo
  • "so no, not too surprised. if he can stay efficient and get his K rate back up a little bit he will become a legit ace" --@telfo1
  • "Beachy reminds me so much of John Smoltz. His mechanics are simple which enables him to repeat pitches without stress." --@M823SL

Somewhere Gene Kerns was probably watching a baseball game tonight. I hope he got a chance to check out a few innings of Brandon Beachy. And if he wants to somehow involve a plow in future retellings of how he discovered Beachy, I think that sounds perfectly fine.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
OriolesEd Zurga/Getty ImagesWhen you're the Baltimore Orioles and in first place, you can celebrate any way you want.

The Atlanta Braves pulled off an impressive sweep in St. Louis over the weekend to take over the first place in the National League East. Most impressively, they did it by scoring 23 runs in the three games. While it's not a surprise the Braves are contenders early on, what is surprising is they've done it more with their bats than their arms. Here is our list of top 10 early season surprises.

1. The Atlanta Braves' offense.

As Diane Firstman wrote the other day on the SweetSpot blog, the Braves have a chance at a historic turnaround on offense. A year ago, they averaged 3.96 runs per game, 8 percent below the major league average of 4.28 runs per game. This year, they're averaging 5.40 runs while the major league average has fallen to 4.18. That's 29 percent better, a 37 percent increase over 2011. Only a handful of teams have shown a 30 percent improvement like that year-to-year.

Some of the improvement was expected --- Jason Heyward and Martin Prado hitting better, for example. Michael Bourn has been superlative in the leadoff spot, hitting .336 with a .399 on-base percentage, but the biggest surprise has perhaps been the old man, Chipper Jones, who is hitting .299 and slugging .506. He has 22 RBIs in 24 games. With rookie shortstop Tyler Pastornicky holding his own, the Braves go eight deep and the scary thing is catcher Brian McCann hasn't really started to hit and you get the feeling Heyward is ready to explode.

2. The Baltimore Orioles are in first place.

The Orioles bounced back from losing three of four to the Texas Rangers by winning their weekend series against the Rays to maintain a one-game lead over Tampa. The Orioles live and die by the home run on offense -- they lead the majors with 54; their .310 OBP, however, ranks just 17th in the majors. Jake Arrieta got pounded again on Sunday and has allowed 13 runs his past two starts after that eight-inning shutout performance against the Yankees. That means three-fifths of Baltimore rotation has an ERA over 5.00. So, yes, there are obvious question marks here. But for now the Orioles have Matt Wieters and Adam Jones mashing, a lights-out bullpen and Jason Hammel pitching like an ace.

3. The Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros aren't terrible.

I heard a lot of mocking of the A's and Astros heading into the season -- predictions of 105 losses, 110, maybe even 115. Both teams have played solid baseball. The A's are 18-17 and as always Billy Beane has constructed a pitching staff that will keep the A's respectable. Brandon McCarthy, Bartolo Colon and Tommy Milone throw strikes, while rookie Jarrod Parker has looked good in his first four starts. Set-up man Ryan Cook, acquired with Parker in the Trevor Cahill trade, hasn't allowed a run in 16.2 innings (and hardly a hit -- opponents are batting .060 against him.)

The Astros, meanwhile, are 15-19 but have actually outscored their opponents. Jose Altuve is as fun as any player in the game, Jed Lowrie has played well and veteran Wandy Rodriguez could be an attractive trade chip if he keeps pitching like this. The Astros aren't going to be playoff contenders, but at least they've giving their fans a reason to show up this summer.

4. Bryan LaHair and Jeff Samardzija.

The Chicago Cubs are bad team but have two of the season's best individual stories. Minor league vet LaHair is putting up All-Star numbers, hitting .340/.437/.670. Samardzija has been a revelation in the rotation, considering he had trouble throwing strikes as a reliever in 2011. His average fastball velocity of 94.7 mph trails only Stephen Strasburg among starters and his changeup has become one of the best strikeout pitches in the game. With a 4-1 record and 2.89 ERA, the former Notre Dame wide receiver has turned into must-see viewing for Cubs fans.

5. Derek Jeter.

Admit it, you saw more decline, you thought maybe he was just about done. Maybe you wanted him to be done. Jeter is hitting .372, has 14 extra-base hits, hasn't missed a game, and is playing like 27-year-old Jeter, not 37-year-old Jeter.

6. A.J. Ellis.

OK, Matt Kemp has been superhuman and Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly are both 5-0 but my favorite story on the team that owns baseball's best record is their obscure 31-year-old catcher who ranks third in the majors in OBP -- his .462 OBP higher than Josh Hamilton's .455. Ellis' 21 walks has been boosted by five freebies but the on-base skills are legit. Hey, Don, how about moving Ellis in front of Kemp in the lineup?

7. Bryce Harper.

The Nationals suffered a devastating injury with the loss of catcher Wilson Ramos this weekend, the latest in a string of injuries that includes Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Drew Storen. Despite that, the Nationals are just a half-game behind the Braves in the NL East thanks to their dominant rotation. We certainly didn't expect Harper to be up so soon, but the 19-year-old has held his own. Trouble is, however, the injuries mean Harper may have to do more than hold his own. I wouldn't bet against him.

8. Parity rules the day.

The Red Sox, Angels and Phillies are in last place.

9. David Wright hitting .400.

When Wright fractured his pinkie four games into the season, Mets fans feared the worst for their franchise third baseman who has battled a string of injuries in recent season. Instead, Wright missed a few games and hasn't stopped hitting since. He's hitting .444 over his past 14 games and the Mets are 19-15 and should not be underestimated.

10. Pitchers are still throwing strikes to Hamilton.

Only Clint Barmes has swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone. Hamilton swings at the first pitch over 50 percent of the time. And yet ... OK, easier said than done. As Chipper said after Hamilton swatted four home runs against the Orioles, "He's a bad man."

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Chris DenorfiaEric Hartline/US PresswireChris Denorfia puts his Mother's Day-edition lumber to use for a first-inning sacrifice.
First base: Donnie Buntball. The situation: The Giants lead the Dodgers 2-1 in the bottom of the eighth, no outs, runners at first and second, Mark Ellis up, Matt Kemp on deck. What do you do? Don Mattingly had Ellis bunt. The Giants of course put Kemp on and brought in lefty killer Javier Lopez to face Andre Ethier, who grounded into a double play to snuff the rally. As Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman headlined, "That's why you don't bunt with Matt Kemp on deck." There were three main problems with bunting here: (1) You already had the tying run in scoring position and with two runners on and nobody out, you were set up for a potential big inning; (2) Ellis isn't exactly Chone Figgins, as he has a .377 OBP this season; maybe he would have drawn a walk against a tiring Ryan Vogelsong or gotten a hit himself; (3) Most importantly, you knew the Giants would walk Kemp and bring in a lefty to face Ethier. While Ethier has been decent versus left-handers this season (.286/.352/.449), he's been terrible in the past (.220 with 40 strikeouts in 151 PAs in 2011) and Lopez held lefties to a .163 average in 2011. I'm guessing Mattingly won't be employing that bunt again anytime soon.

Second base: Rockies call up Friedrich. After dominating Class A ball in 2009, Rockies left-hander Christian Friedrich was one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Keith Law ranked him No. 36 on his top 100 list entering 2010. But after struggling for two years in Double-A and battling some arm problems, Friedrich spent a few days over the winter working out with Cliff Lee. Friedrich told MLB.com that Lee reinforced the importance of downhill plane. He also talked with Jamie Moyer during spring training. The results in Triple-A were positive: 30 innings, 23 hits, four walks and 27 strikeouts. He makes his debut today in San Diego, looking to end the Rockies' five-game skid.

Third base: Dempster's bad luck. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster is averaging seven innings per start in his five outings and has allowed six runs, has a 36/10 strikeout/walk ratio and 1.02 ERA. He's 0-1, drawing a no-decision on Tuesday after allowing one run in seven innings in the Cubs' 3-1 loss to the Braves. And then there's Clay Buchholz, the worst starter in baseball so far. He's allowed 34 runs in 32.2 innings, including 10 home runs, and has a 9.09 ERA. He 3-1.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.
First base: Here come the Marlins. The Marlins won their sixth straight game to improve to .500. All six wins came on the road, in San Francisco and San Diego, with four of the wins coming by one run and two in extra innings. The key battle in Sunday's 6-3 win over the Padres came in eighth inning with the game tied, the bases loaded, two outs and Giancarlo Stanton facing reliever Andrew Cashner. Stanton saw eight high-octane fastballs from Cashner -- seven at 101 mph, one at 102 mph. Stanton missed the first pitch, later fouled off two pitches and then drew a walk on a 3-2 pitch to give the Marlins the lead. With Cashner perhaps rattled by the bases-loaded walks, the Marlins proceeded to add three more runs on a John Buck passed ball, a Gaby Sanchez single and another passed ball.

"I saw 102 (mph) but you can throw 120 and without command you are going to get hurt," Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen said. "It's all about command and making good pitches. It was a hell of an at-bat." Stanton is also getting locked in. After going homerless for 19 games, he's hit five in his past eight games. Ricky Nolasco also pitched well again, improving to 4-0 with a 2.72 ERA. He's allowed 12 runs in his start, relying on control (nine walks) and keeping the ball in the park (one home run). The Marlins finish their road trip with three games in Houston. Could this be a 9-0 trip?

Second base: Let's settle this on the playground. You have to love Jamie Moyer and Chipper Jones getting into a little squabble over stealing signs. Kids will be kids, I guess. Moyer accused Jones of relaying signs while on second base. But what's odd is Chipper's response: "Any time a grown man gets his integrity questioned, they're going to take it seriously and I'm no different. If he wants to discuss it, we'll discuss it, but he's wrong, plain and simple," he said. But haven't we been led to believe that stealing signs is, you know, part of the game? A sort of legal way to cheat, as opposed to, oh, let's say performance enhancing drugs. Yet Chipper acts like his his very manhood was thrown in the gutter. Could it be that stealing signs is considered an immoral way to victory?

Third base: Mixed messages. Two pitchers in need of positive returns also delivered on Sunday, as Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez threw seven shutout innings against the Rangers while Mat Latos struck out 11 in six scoreless frames. However, let's not get too excited just yet. While Jimenez allowed just two hits, he also walked five against six strikeouts, a sign that his control issues remain an issue (25 walks, just 20 strikeouts on the season). Latos' game came against the Pirates; still, that's two scoreless outings in his past three starts. While I'd still be concerned about Jimenez, maybe Latos is finally showing the talent that made him so effective with the Padres.

Home plate. Tweet of the day. Bryce Harper stole home. On a pickoff throw to first base by Cole Hamels. After reaching when Hamels hit him with a pitch. Which Hamels admitted after the game he did on purpose. As Joe Sheehan tweeted ...

What a day in baseball on Wednesday! Eric Karabell and myself could have done a two-hour Baseball Today podcast. Here are some highlights of a jam-packed show. Eric even tricked me into comparing Jose Altuve to Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez. OK, maybe I did that to myself.

1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.

2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?

3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.

4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.

5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.

Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.
Baseball is awesome. Did we need to say anything else? Do we need to hire Terry Cashman to write a ballad about this day? Do we need to pen epic poems about Chipper Jones and Jered Weaver and Bryce Harper and the intentional walk?

Man, I need to catch my breath.

How do you sum up the wildest game of the season so far? I guess pretty simply: The Phillies, a team that scores runs with about the same frequency of a Serie A soccer team, totaled 13 runs ... in a game Roy Halladay started ... and lost.

The Phillies led 6-0, the Braves scored six off Halladay in the fifth (including a Brian McCann grand slam) and then took an 8-6 lead (the first time he's allowed eight runs in a game since Aug. 24, 2009). The Phillies surged back ahead 12-8, the Braves took a 13-12 lead with five runs in the bottom of the eighth (as Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon apparently isn't allowed to pitch more than one inning or three days in a row), the Phillies tied in the ninth on Shane Victorino's two-out infield single, and then ...

Well, then, Larry Wayne Jones stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning. He hammered a 2-2 slider from Brian Sanches down the right-field line, but it hooked a few feet line. I tweeted, "Dang, a Chipper walk-off would have been pretty cool on this wild day."

Two pitches later, he crushed a 3-2, 88-mph meatball over the center-field fence, watching the ball fly away into the Atlanta evening and flipping his bat in a dismissive swagger. "I may be 40 years old with creaky knees, but don't try and slip that mediocre slop by me," he seemed to say.

Braves 15, Phillies 13.

It was the 458th regular-season home run in his career. Few have felt sweeter, especially since the Braves had lost eight straight games to the Phillies.

"I wish everyone could experience that feeling right there," Jones said on postgame on-field TV interview, trying to catch his breath after enduring the mosh pit at home plate. "That game, without a doubt, takes the cake as far as my career goes. You figure with Halladay and [Tommy] Hanson, it's going to be a 2-1 game."

When Jones says he's never seen a game like it, you know what it was something amazing.

And here are a few more adventures from not just another Wednesday in early May:
  • Oh, yeah, as I was finishing this piece, Jered Weaver was flirting with a no-hitter through the sixth … seventh … into the eighth … and he did it. You know, Weaver is pretty good at baseball. The highlight: MLB Network cameras showed Weaver leaving the dugout in the eighth inning to use the bathroom. How do you risk a no-hitter by leaving the bench? As he said after the game, "I had to pee so bad."
  • In an afternoon tilt at Coors Field, we saw the worst call of the season (Jerry Hairston Jr. was called out on this play) and Carlos Gonzalez homered twice off Clayton Kershaw (only the second time Kershaw has allowed two home runs to one player in a game, Adam Dunn having done so in 2010). But that stuff was merely a prelude to a wacky ninth inning. With two outs and a runner on first, Jim Tracy elected to intentionally walk Matt Kemp to pitch to Dee Gordon. You can debate the merits of the decision -- Kemp's home run rate was three times that of Gordon's extra-base hit rate, and extreme fly ball pitcher Rafael Betancourt was on the mound -- but Gordon hit a soft liner into right-center. Third-base coach Tim Wallach sent Kemp, who should have been thrown out by 10 feet, but Troy Tulowitzki biffed the relay with a wormburner throw home. Game tied and Tracy looked like the goat until the ancient Jason Giambi hit a three-run homer off Scott Elbert in the bottom of the ninth. How awesome is that the Giambino is still swatting game-winning home runs at age 41?
  • The Nationals ended a five-game losing streak in dramatic, walk-off fashion as well. Wunderkind Harper -- who had just missed his first major league homer earlier in the game with a double off the top of the wall in right-center -- led off the bottom of the ninth with another double to center, his third hit of the game. With Nationals fans dreaming delirious dreams of Harper's future, J.J. Putz then struck out Wilson Ramos and Rick Ankiel. But Ian Desmond blasted a 1-1, 93-mph fastball over the fence in left-center. Only one of the best wins in Nationals' history.
  • The Royals looked like they were going to beat Justin Verlander, leading 2-0 in the eighth, only to have Brennan Boesch tie the game with a two-run homer. So they settled for a victory off Joaquin Benoit in the ninth, the go-ahead run scoring on Chris Getz's two-out infield single.
  • Jake Arrieta threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees in one of the best outings of the year for a pitcher: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB 9 SO. The Orioles took two of three in the series, they're 16-9, and Baltimore fans are starting to believe.
  • Jeff Suppan made his first major league start since 2010 and tossed five shutout innings as the Padres blanked the Brewers 5-0.
  • Johnny Damon played his first game for the Indians, and while he went 0-for-3 with a walk, having Damon back in the bigs is certainly worthy of a round of applause.
  • Carlos Beltran had seven RBIs through three innings and for a time we could conjure up scenarios where he would drive in 10 ... 11 ... maybe even a record-tying 12 runs.
  • Lost in the excitement of Chipper's dramatic walk-off homer, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz also had seven RBIs.


One day in baseball. I say we do it again.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Ian DesmondJoy R. Absalon/US PresswireAs Ian Desmond comes home after his game-winning walkoff shot, he was understandably pleased.
On Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast, SweetSpot writer Dave Schoenfield and I had loads of fun, as we always do, discussing not only the pertinent breaking news of the day, but Shoeless Joe Jackson and Jay Johnstone (he wears his shoes apparently) as well.

1. Chipper Jones says this will be his final season, and we aim to put his tremendous career in proper perspective, while also looking ahead for the Braves.

2. The defending champs could be without No. 1 starter Chris Carpenter for a little while or a long while, but should the Cardinals panic?

3. Homer Bailey is scuffling this spring and Aroldis Chapman and Jeff Francis are not. Is Dusty Baker on the hot seat in Cincinnati and who will be the No. 5 starter?

4. We love our emails! Dave and I reminisce about the greatest season ever voting from a few weeks ago, Jacoby Ellsbury’s worth in baseball and to the Red Sox, and much more!

5. Why was Jay Johnstone hitting right-handed in the movie I watched this morning? Does it bother anyone else? Thankfully, when it comes to inaccuracy in flicks, I’m not alone!

So download and listen to Thursday’s fun Baseball Today podcast because, let’s face it, Dave and I had a good time and that’s what this should be about!

Rough spring, but Braves still contenders

March, 22, 2012
Mar 22
1:54
PM ET
Giants/BravesScott Cunningham/Getty ImagesDan Uggla and Brian McCann will be counted on to provide pop for the Braves in 2012.
With the way 2011 ended for the Atlanta Braves, many hoped a good start in spring training would put any thoughts about last season behind them. At the start of camp, however, Tommy Hanson crashed his car and received a concussion. That was certainly not a good omen, to say the least.

Then Tyler Pastornicky, the expected starting shortstop, started 3-for-33, sparking questions about whether he or last season’s Lynchburg Hillcat (Atlanta's high-A affiliate) shortstop Andrelton Simmons should start at shortstop. A week ago, Chipper Jones stated in jest that he was unsure if he could even finish the season, and then Thursday announced that he'll retire at the end of the season. Additionally, the team is 6-13 in the Grapefruit League, ahead of only the Mets. Spring training records do not mean much, if anything, but the Braves have most certainly not played quality baseball.

On Tuesday, the worst news of the spring hit the Braves as Arodys Vizcaino, the 14th-ranked prospect in baseball according to Keith Law, will miss the entire season with Tommy John surgery. Vizcaino was projected to pitch in the Braves’ bullpen and was expected to help ease the workload of the team’s back-end relievers.

Not much has gone right, but there are still reasons to be optimistic. With Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy ready to break out and Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado not far behind them, the Braves still have a strong core of young starting pitchers who are major league ready. With Tim Hudson already being ruled out until the start of May and Hanson and Jair Jurrjens attempting to rebound from last year’s season-ending injuries, the depth in the rotation is the team’s biggest strength and should come in handy over the course of the season.

Although Vizcaino will miss the year, swingman Kris Medlen should bolster what was already one of the game’s top bullpens. His ability to eat innings, along with fellow bullpen mate Cristhian Martinez, should lessen the workload on Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty. The bullpen should again be stellar.

While the pitching should remain sturdy, the big questions in Braves camp revolve around the bats. Jason Heyward and Martin Prado had sub-standard years and will look to rebound, while Brian McCann and Dan Uggla try to stay consistent throughout the season. Heyward has altered both his swing and stance, and he has really started to swing the bat well over the past two weeks. Prado and Uggla have both looked tremendous all spring.

The basic assumption the front office has made, judging by their lack of acquisitions, is that they doubt things go as bad for the offense in 2012 as they did last year. Having Michael Bourn in center field for the entire season should stabilize the top of the lineup and result in improved production compared to what the Braves received from Nate McLouth, Jordan Schafer and Bourn during his few months with the team.

With all that went bad toward the end of last year, this team still won 89 games and would have made the playoffs if this season’s playoff format had been in place. They have a ton of pitching depth and have one of the best bullpens in the league. While they do not have a tremendous offense and will likely struggle with their infield defense, they do have the tools to score runs and prevent runs at a better than average rate. As bad as this spring has been, the Braves are still one of the better teams in the National League and should certainly be in competition for a playoff spot, which is all you can really ask for in a crowded NL East.

Ben Duronio writes regularly about the Braves at Capitol Avenue Club. You can follow him on Twitter @Ben_Duronio.
Chipper JonesMike Stobe/US PresswireChipper Jones enters 2012 with 454 career home runs and a .304 batting average.
If you were a baseball fan back in 1990, you may remember the hype about a prospect named Todd Van Poppel. He was a big, laser-armed high school kid from Texas, the consensus No. 1 draft pick. But he had committed to attending the University of Texas.

The Atlanta Braves, coming off a 97-loss season, held the top pick. They weren't willing to take the gamble on Van Poppel. Bobby Cox, then the team's general manager, had made a last-ditch plea to sign Van Poppel. "He said he was going to school," Cox said at the time, "but I'm sure somebody will pick him."

The Oakland A's did take Van Poppel with the 14th pick -- and signed him. The Braves settled for a high school shortstop from Florida named Larry Wayne Jones Jr. -- everyone called him Chipper -- and gave him a $275,000 signing bonus plus $68,000 to cover college expenses in case his baseball career didn't work out.

"Chipper is a blue-chip high school talent," Braves vice president Paul Snyder said then. "The fact that he can switch-hit is a definite bonus, as is his tremendous speed. For us, it's a quality draft at a quality position."

No, Jones wouldn't need that $68,000. And I'd say that baseball career worked out pretty well.

Jones announced Thursday that he'll retire at season's end, after what will be 19 seasons in the majors and more than 2,400 games played. Back when free agency began, they said players would move around from team to team like traveling salesmen, or that they would retire in their early 30s because they'll have made so much money. But Chipper Jones stayed with the Braves, grinding out a career as long as he could, playing for years on bad, aching knees. He enters his final season with 454 home runs, a career .304 batting average, 1,561 RBIs, a National League MVP Award and 11 years playing in the postseason. When he appears on the Hall of Fame ballot in five years, he'll go straight to Cooperstown, one of the game's greatest third basemen.

He was in retrospect, the ultimate No. 1 pick, the ultimate franchise player.

Among No. 1 overall picks, only Alex Rodriguez has compiled more career Wins Above Replacement, but no player has accumulated more value with his original team than Chipper:

Chipper Jones, Braves, 1990: 82.7
Ken Griffey Jr.. Mariners, 1989: 67.6
Joe Mauer, Twins, 2001: 40.3
Darryl Strawberry, Mets, 1980: 37.7
Alex Rodriguez, Mariners, 1993: 37.1

Chipper didn't play well his first season in rookie ball, hitting .229 with one home run in 44 games. Baseball America rated him the 49th-best prospect after that season, but there were fears the Braves had blown the pick. Jones quickly became one of the game's top prospects, however, hitting .326 with Class A Macon in 1991. As Jones developed, so did the Braves. They went from last-to-first in 1991, reaching the World Series. In 1993, they signed Greg Maddux and Jones made a September cameo in the majors. In his first game he replaced Jeff Blauser at shortstop in the bottom of the ninth of a 13-1 win over the Padres.

Jones tore up his knee in spring training of 1994 and missed the entire season. Moved to third base, he became the team's starting third baseman as a rookie in 1995. By the World Series, Jones was the team's No. 3 hitter. Bobby Cox loved the kid. "I was 26 or so when I broke into the majors," Cox said before the 1995 World Series, "and I was scared to death. He's not. We put him on a good club and I hit him third because I thought he would succeed like heck and he did."

He'll be an All-Star "forever," Cox said. The Braves won it all.

"It feels good to win one of these," Jones said during the clubhouse celebration, acting like a veteran who had been on those Braves playoff teams that fell short in 1991, '92 and '93. "Maybe we should go out and win a few more."

Of course, that didn't happen. Jones has spent the rest of his career chasing another title. The Braves have made the playoffs 11 more times (Jones missed 2010 with an injury) and he made it to two more World Series. Even after Maddux and Tom Glavine left, the Braves kept on winning. Young stars like Andruw Jones and Rafael Furcal have come and gone. He's with a new generation of players now -- Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel. But Chipper Jones has been the constant, the foundation of the Braves for nearly two decades.

Franchise players aren't easy to find. Sometimes they don't stick around. The Braves had a great one.
If there's one thing we need more of in America, it's eight-pound hamburgers.

So thankfully the Washington Nationals have stepped up to sate our gluttony by introducing the StrasBurger, the Washington Post's Dan Steinberg reports. My favorite part of the news release: The burger will be served on a "large burger bun." Well, I would hope so.

My question: Was Stephen Strasburg consulted on this? Does he approve of being associated with an eight-pound piece of cow flesh? Or are we entering an Albert Pujols situation? I fear there will be repercussions to this burger unveiling.

More links:
  • The bloggers at the Capitol Avenue Club react to Chipper Jones' comments that he might not make it through the season.
  • Joey Matschulat writes on Mike Napoli's contract situation with the Rangers ... and the lack of an extension or even an apparent discussion.
  • The Mariners annually have the most creative promotional commercials. I'm not sure they actually help sell more tickets, but they're fun to watch. The best one this year shows where Justin Smoak gets his bats.
  • Chip Buck on the Boston's Sox bullpen situation. The Sox lost Jonathan Papelbon to free agency and Daniel Bard to the rotation, replacing them with Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon. Papelbon and Bard were dominant, both posting WHIPs under 1.00 and combining for 161 strikeouts in 137.1 innings. Papelbon only blew three saves, and didn't lose a game until No. 162, but Bard went 2-9. You can't ignore those nine losses, no matter the other numbers. Here, Bard's OPS allowed in different game situations:Margin greater than 4 runs: .237
    Within 4 runs: .561
    Within 3 runs: .566
    Within 2 runs: .562
    Within 1 run: .653
    Tied: .885

    Bard simply wasn't clutch went it mattered most. That's a long-winded way of saying the overall net effect of Bailey and Melancon replacing Papelbon and Bard might not be that severe, assuming those two can come close to the 137 innings the Red Sox got from their top two relievers in 2011 (considering Bailey's health history, that's the bigger question).
  • Speaking of bullpens, Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker asks, What to expect from the Brewers' pen? Personally, I like Milwaukee's pen as there is a lot of depth behind John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez. The weakness is a lack of a left-hander, a role potentially filled by Zach Braddock or Manny Parra (yes, he's still around).
  • Will Jeff Samardzija earn a spot in the Cubs' rotation? So far, so good.
  • Brandon Cloud looks at the future of the Rockies -- an examination of all the moves since the Ubaldo Jimenez trade.
  • John Bonnes has five storylines to watch for the Twins.
  • Who is Tyler Graham? An outfield candidate unlikely to break camp with the Giants, writes Chris Quick. But check out this play he made in center field.
  • ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh looks at five relievers being converted to starters, and suggests Chris Sale is the best bet for a successful transition.
  • Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has his organizational prospect rankings. Like ESPN Insider Keith Law, he ranks the Padres No. 1. Keith had Tampa Bay No. 2 and Toronto No. 3, while Kevin has Toronto No. 2 and St. Louis No. 3. Kevin has the Rays well down his list at No. 13.
Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast with Mark Simon was a special one, as it figures to be our last weekly episode before we really get going. That’s right, we’re going daily next week! Anyway, we had a special guest and good fun with many topics.

1. Ben Jedlovec from "The Fielding Bible Volume III" (available from Amazon.com or www.actasports.com) joined us to talk defense, from runs saved to overrated/underrated (Derek Jeter, Matt Kemp) to the best defenders in baseball and a lot more.

2. I watch spring training games, Mark does not, but we’re both aware of who’s getting hurt. A few Mets are on our mind this day, as well as a Cardinals ace and a potential Angels slugger.

3. Is Chipper Jones really on the way out or did he just have a bad day when he told reporters he might not make it through the season?

4. We play the “star or Shlobotnick” game with pitchers, which isn’t so easy! What do you think of Mat Latos, Jeremy Hellickson and John Danks, among others?

5. If you ask a ridiculous question, you often get a ridiculous answer. So it was with our email segment today! Hey, it was fun!

So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Mark and I talk defense, McDonald’s and yes, a little birthdays as well. And look for the next show next Monday, as we really prepare for the season.
The final Baseball Today podcast of February was a winning one as Mark Simon and me discussed myriad names and topics, including ...

1. Do you feel differently about Ryan Braun after the strange events of last week? Mark and I are similarly dissatisfied and explain why.

2. Boston Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek has apparently had enough, and we discuss his Hall of Fame case, such as it is. We also deviate on a few of his teammates, and hit a nerve on David Ortiz.

3. The Missouri catchers get a lot richer after signing contract extensions, but were the Cardinals and Royals wise to make these moves with Yadier Molina and Salvador Perez?

4. In our Simon Says segment, we play the "Superstar or Shlabotnick" game (no, really, we did!) and discuss the recent ESPN The Magazine cover story about smart Oakland Athletics pitcher Brandon McCarthy.

5. Emails pose questions about last week’s memorable podcast, other books to recommend (including one from me!), the Angels third-base situation with Alberto Callaspo/Mark Trumbo and more!

So download and listen to Tuesday’s fine edition of the Baseball Today podcast! It’s the wise thing to do!
Check out some of the great work from our blog network ...

Position production: At the corners

January, 28, 2012
Jan 28
9:00
AM ET
Alex RodriguezJim McIsaac/Getty ImagesAlex Rodriguez's injury-marred year contributed to a weak group of third basemen in 2011.
Are first basemen doing more to put runs on the board today than they did 10 years ago? How about 25 years ago? How do you make broad comparisons like this?

With any question like this you can get hung up on the differences between eras. Run-scoring environments are going to bounce around as a matter of course, and that’s before you get into the bump of the so-called "Steroids Era." If you were a fan just getting started in the late ’90s, chances are you might wind up with an inflated sense of what player performance is supposed to look like.

Happily, you can compare player performance within the context of their own season. Clay Davenport, an old colleague from Baseball Prospectus, cranks this data for every season. We can get a snapshot of where performance has gone at each position by using his Equivalent Average, or EqA. Equivalent Average isn’t the only stat you can employ; Clay scales production to batting average, with .260 defined as average.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at performances from the eight major positions over the past 25 years. We’ll start with the premium offensive positions, the four corners, from 1987 to the present:

MLB ChartESPN.comFour-corner EqA performance at the plate, 1987-2011


Keep in mind, .260 is average for every season, so the year-to-year variations are going to refer back to that baseline. We can already draw a few broad conclusions -- some of which are pretty much accepted wisdom, but some prove slightly surprising.

Runs come from first base. This might seem obvious, but that’s especially the case now. It hasn’t always been that way. As you can see from the chart, left and right fielders have sometimes approached the first basemen, but that usually coincides with bad years for first basemen. But these days, first base is the game’s premium offense position.

If you look back further, that picture gets a lot more complicated. During the ’70s, first, right and left were equally important offensive positions, and in 1982 the four corners and center field were separated by just eight points. That changed in the late ’80s, as the standard for production at first base now winds up north of a .280 EqA year after year.

This higher standard has survived two expansions and the steroid era. This year Mark Teixeira was below average despite hitting 39 homers. Admittedly, it was a down year for him: he posted a .281 EqA compared to an MLB average of .283. In contrast, in 1991 Carlos Quintana defined adequacy at first -- if you’re from outside Boston and have forgotten him entirely, it’s probably just as well, but he was a nice OBP guy without much power.

What does that mean today? Well, this goes a little bit towards what Dave Schoenfield was writing about as far as Albert Pujols ranking as the top player in the game for so long. It also means that while teams like the Rangers have been leaving runs on the table by playing Mitch Moreland, you can understand why the Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez while the Angels landed Pujols. Credit the Rays for keeping up with the other big-money contenders by bringing Carlos Pena back (.292 last year).

Right field is where outfield stars play. This might take us back to the days of Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron as opposed to Ted Williams or Barry Bonds. While the averages for the two positions have balanced out over time, right field is the much stronger position these days. Some of that has is because of a matter of preference: Lance Berkman played right for the Cardinals not because he’s a good right fielder, but because he’d help them score a ton of runs. Jose Bautista might be a fantasy league’s perfect third baseman, but the Blue Jays keep bumping him back to the outfield. Add in breakthrough seasons for Mike Stanton and Matt Joyce and even nice bounce-backs from Justin Upton and Jeff Francoeur, and you wind up with the game’s reigning premium outfield slot.

Left field is down. Way down. As you can see, the last 25 years have been pretty up and down for the left-side corners. The average for left fielders in the era of division play is .277, but they haven’t reached that mark since 2004.

The sad state of left-field offensive production has already been debated plenty among statheads. Is it an affordable risk on offense at a time when teams are more defense-conscious than ever before? Or is it a case of reaping what you sow when you make a point putting guys like Juan Pierre in your everyday lineup? It might reflect an industry-wide choice to employ better defenders at the position, sacrificing some offense. But in other ways it might also reflect how left field has become almost a garbage-time position for teams that stow their backup center fielder or a sputtering veteran holdover. Teams now lack the roster space to platoon or mix and match on offense the way that they could before the seven-man bullpen became fashionable.

Whatever your take, offensive production from left fielders is down at its lowest point in 25 years, matching 1997 for punchlessness with a .268 EqA. That isn’t a coincidence; much like the present, 1997 featured a lot of transition in left fields around the majors, with guys like Gregg Jefferies, Wil Cordero and B.J. Surhoff playing their first full seasons in the outfield. Moises Alou got hurt (again), Bernard Gilkey’s career started imploding, and Greg Vaughn and Ron Gant had the worst years of their careers.

Fast-forward to the present, and you find your share of setback seasons (Carl Crawford and Delmon Young). You also see a lot of flat-out awful from self-inflicted bad ideas, like Raul Ibanez in the last year of his contract while Vernon Wells, Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano marked time on huge deals that won’t go away soon enough.

Against that, you’ve got the guys we might call sops to the speed-and-defense crowd, or what I think of as the next-gen Dave Collins solutions: Brett Gardner, Jose Tabata, Michael Brantley, Sam Fuld, Pierre and more. They range from useful OBP sources to significantly less so, but not one of them is going to be Tim Raines, let alone Crawford. Last year Gerardo Parra had the best season among this group (.280 EqA); he also stands to lose playing time in 2012 to Jason Kubel, a guy who’s a much more conventional corner-outfield selection.

Third Base is hurting. If you’re a student of baseball history, you already know that back in the Deadball Era second base was more of a high-offense position than the hot corner. That changed in the 1920s with the introduction of the livelier ball, but every once in a while you get a year where you’ve got a great group of second baseman and a weak crew of third-base vets. That was very much the case in the late ’80 and early ’90s (thanks in part to guys like Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, Robby Thompson, Lou Whitaker and Julio Franco), but after the Marlins-Rockies expansion in ’93 second base fell back again. But now we’re at this same point again, where third base has slipped behind second base, if only barely (.262 EqA to .261).

With the declining standards reflected by Scott Rolen getting named to an All-Star team despite a lousy season, finding merely competent options for third base isn’t as easy as it sounds. Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones certainly aren’t getting any younger.

You can hope this will change for the better with the arrivals of touted prospects like Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas and Lonnie Chisenhall, but we’ve also seen a few major third-base prospect flops: Pedro Alvarez or Andy LaRoche, anyone? That’s why journeymen like Casey Blake, Ryan Roberts or Jack Hannahan get opportunities to stick around.

If anything, the state of third base these days speaks volumes about the Tigers' decision to move Miguel Cabrera across to the diamond after signing Prince Fielder. As Mark Simon notes, the defensive penalty might be steep, but reviewing this data suggests that there's a major competitive advantage to be gained relative to the competition, because they're making room for two superstar bats in the lineup: Cabrera with his career .315 EqA, and Fielder with his .313. The Cardinals just ran up a flag after risking their defense at the corners with Berkman in right, so you can't blame the Tigers for trying to do likewise.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at the up-the-middle positions. If you’re one of those people who think finding good help at shortstop or catcher is hard to find these days, you might have a surprise to look forward to.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Some good stuff from around the SweetSpot network ...
BACK TO TOP