SweetSpot: Cleveland Indians

Kernels of Wisdom: Week in review

April, 14, 2012
Apr 14
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  • Austin Jackson scored a run in each of the Tigers' first six games this season. That was the longest streak by a Detroit batter to start a season since Darrell Evans crossed the plate in each of the first eight contests in 1986. And it's the longest streak by a Tigers leadoff hitter since 1939, when one of Jackson's center field predecessors, Barney McCosky, also scored in the first eight games of the season. In game seven on Friday, however, Jackson was on base only once (he walked in the eighth) and was stranded at third.
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    Austin Jackson
    Duane Burleson/AP PhotoAustin Jackson is having a solid season for the Tigers early on.
    The Red Sox managed to blow a three-run lead in the ninth and a two-run lead in the 11th in losing a wild one to Detroit on Sunday, 13-12. It was the first time Boston had scored a dozen runs and lost since May 31, 1970, when they were on the wrong end of a 22-13 slugfest with the White Sox at Fenway.
  • Alfredo Aceves gave up all three ninth-inning runs in Sunday’s game without retiring a batter, making him just the second Red Sox pitcher in the live-ball era to work zero innings pitched in each of his first two appearances of the year. Guido Grilli faced one batter each in the first two games of the 1966 season, and didn't get either of them out.
  • The Tigers used eight pitchers in that 13-12, come-from-behind win over the Red Sox. It marked just the second time in 70 years that Detroit had come back to win a game in which their starter surrendered seven-plus runs without getting through the third inning. Omar Olivares was the starter in 1997 when the Tigers rallied to beat Baltimore 11-8.
  • On Sunday, the Yankees managed just three hits -- all doubles. That same day, the Twins had just two hits as Jason Hammel posted the longest no-hit bid of the year so far. Both Minnesota knocks were doubles. It's the first time in almost three years that two teams have done that on the same day. But then … the Royals did it against Oakland (three hits, three doubles) on Monday … and the Athletics did it against Kansas City (one hit) on Tuesday.It's the first time since at least 1917 that there have been three straight days where a team had every hit be a double.
  • On Sunday, Jeff Samardzija (making just his sixth career start) was afforded the chance at a complete game. He had to be pulled after giving up a two-out homer that pulled the Nationals to within a run. Four days later, Matt Garza was en route to a shutout against Milwaukee, but was pulled after committing a two-out error that allowed the inning to continue. So the Cubs had two pitchers this week leave the game after 8.2 innings pitched.The Cubs hadn't had two pitchers work exactly 8.2 innings in the same season since 1995 (Jaime Navarro and Frank Castillo).
  • In Sunday's Cardinals-Brewers game, you could say the teams spread it around. In the 9-3 Milwaukee victory, the 12 runs were charged to eight different pitchers. In fact, every hurler who appeared in the game ended up with at least one earned run on his record.It's the first game in eight seasons where the teams combined to use eight or more pitchers, and every single one of them got charged with at least one earned run. The last time that happened was on Sept. 9, 2004, when the Royals erupted for a 26-5 victory over the Tigers in the first game of a doubleheader.
  • James Shields got called for a balk Wednesday on an illegal pickoff throw to third. That was in the bottom of the fifth -- after Justin Verlander had been called for his own balk in the top of the fifth.It was the first MLB game to feature balks by both teams in the same inning since Aug. 16, 2004, when the Rangers' Mickey Callaway and then-Indian CC Sabathia committed them in the fourth inning of a 5-2 Texas win.
  • In that same game, Verlander threw eight shutout innings before getting tagged for four runs and the loss in the top of the ninth. He became the first pitcher to throw eight scoreless innings, then surrender four (or more) runs in the ninth to take a loss since Tim Hudson did it for the Braves on Sept. 22, 2005. Hudson allowed a three-run homer to Shane Victorino of the Phillies for most of that damage before Macay McBride had to come in and get the final out.
  • In Monday's Yankees-Orioles game, Derek Jeter went a perfect 4-for-4 for the visitors, while Matt Wieters went a perfect 4-for-4 in the home dugout. It was the first game this year to feature two players with four-hit games.Since the start of 2010, there's been only one other MLB game where a player for each team went a perfect 4-for-4 or better -- and it was between the Orioles and Yankees. On July 30, 2011, Vladimir Guerrero’s 4-for-4 was the bright spot for Baltimore as the Yankees -- led by Robinson Cano's 5-for-5 -- demolished them 17-3.
  • In Yu Darvish's much-anticipated major league debut on Monday, he allowed five earned runs, four walks, hit a batter, threw one wild pitch -- and won the game because the Rangers spotted him eight runs.He's the first pitcher in the live-ball era to win his major league debut while giving up all of those stats (or worse). Even take away the wild pitch, and only one other hurler has hit five earned runs, four walks, one HBP and a win in his debut. That was the Blue Jays' Matt Williams on Aug. 2, 1983.
  • Jeff Gray of the Twins earned the first one-pitch victory of the season on Wednesday. Gray threw his one and only pitch to Peter Bourjos to end the top of the seventh, after which the Twins took the lead in the bottom of the inning. The Twins, conveniently, recorded the last one-pitch win last season, by Matt Capps on Sept. 23.
  • Speaking of pitching oddities, the Royals-Athletics game was finally called in the top of the eighth inning on Tuesday after its second rain delay. Aaron Crow, who had pitched the seventh for the Royals, was credited with his first career save. Technically, he does meet the save criteria set forth in the rule book, notably that of being the "finishing pitcher" in a game his team won.The last player to be credited with a save prior to the ninth inning was Tony Sipp of the Indians, who received one in a rain-shortened affair with Tampa Bay on July 23, 2010. That also remains Sipp's only career save.
  • On Tuesday, Freddy Garcia of the Yankees famously threw five wild pitches to tie the single-game American League record for such a thing. He was also the first pitcher to throw five-plus wild pitches in an outing of less than five innings. But two of those wild pitches scored runs for Baltimore. Another run scored on an error. That made the Orioles the first team in two years to score four-plus runs with one or fewer RBI. (The one RBI they did get came on a home run.)For the Orioles, it was just the second time since moving to Baltimore that they scored four runs on one or zero RBI. The other was in their inaugural year: On June 27, 1954, they scored three times on errors by the Athletics before finally walking off on an RBI single in the bottom of the 11th.
  • Oakland "walked off" in unusual fashion on Wednesday when Jonathan Broxton plunked Yoenis Cespedes and Jonny Gomes to force in the winning run in the bottom of the 12th. It was the first game to end with back-to-back hit batters since Sept. 2, 1966, when Stu Miller of the Orioles hit Al Weis and Tommie Agee of the White Sox in the bottom of the 11th. (I admit that Elias found this a lot quicker than I would have.) However, Gomes became the first Athletics batter to get hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in extra innings since at least 1947. (It had never happened in the Baseball Reference "play index" era.) It's also noteworthy that Oakland scored its two runs in the 12th without a base hit. The three runners ahead of Cespedes reached on two walks and an error.
  • Before Friday, there had been 36 double-digit strikeout games by teams this week (including seven games where both teams did it) but not one by a single pitcher. Max Scherzer's 11-strikeout outing on Friday afternoon broke that string.
  • In Wednesday's 17-8 eruption between the Giants and Rockies, there were four pitchers (Tim Lincecum, Jeremy Guthrie, Guillermo Mota, Jeremy Affeldt)who all gave up at least six hits and at least five runs. It's the first time that that has happened since July 17, 1998, when Seattle dropped an 18-5 score on the Royals at the Kingdome.(It is also very intriguing that, in that game, both teams posted a seven-run inning. Except I don't know of a good way to search line scores.)

    By the way, on their next two games on Thursday and Friday, the Giants promptly had two pitchers (Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain)carry no-hit bids into the sixth inning. The only team to have bids in consecutive games last season was also the Giants. That happened on May 8 and 10 by Ryan Vogelsong and Lincecum.
  • The Orioles and Blue Jays combined to hit seven home runs in Baltimore's 7-5 victory on Friday. All were solo shots. It's the first game with seven-plus home runs that were all solo since a July 20, 2010 game at Camden Yards between the Rays and Orioles.
  • There's always one guy left out.In the 10-9 "pitchers’ duel" between the Twins and Angels on Thursday, 17 of the 18 starters recorded at least one base hit. Howard Kendrick was the lone collar, going 0-for-4 plus a walk.

    It's the first nine-inning game this season to have 17 different starters record a base hit. There were three games last season where all 18 did.
  • Minnesota got a four-hit game from Denard Span and three-hit games from Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham and Danny Valencia. It's the first time the Twins have had four players with three hits, including at least one with four, since they dropped a 20-1 score on the White Sox on May 21, 2009.

2012 predictions you couldn't predict?

February, 18, 2012
Feb 18
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Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

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Rickie Weeks
AP Photo/David J. PhillipWith Prince Fielder gone to Detroit and Ryan Braun facing possible disciplinary action, Rickie Weeks could lead the Milwaukee Brewers in home runs in 2012.
Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

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James Shields
Kim Klement/US PresswireAfter none in either 2009 or 10, James Shields pitched 11 complete games for Tampa Bay in 2011.
Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

What happened to Gene Bearden?

December, 21, 2010
12/21/10
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Another couple of passages from Eddie Robinson's memoir, this time about one of my favorite pitcher-seasons: Gene Bearden's 1948:
    Bearden's complete game win topped a remarkable pitching streak -- four complete game wins, including two shutouts, in our last eight games. He'd twice pitched and won with only one day's rest. If there had been a Cy Young Award in those days, Bearden would have won it hands down. And, as the World Series would prove, he wasn't done yet.

Bearden might have won the Cy Young Award, if there'd been one. Just looking at the numbers, that's what you would probably guess.

That said, Bearden wasn't the top MVP finisher among Cleveland's pitchers. He finished eighth, with 52 points; Bob Lemon finished fifth, with 101 points. For whatever reason, the MVP voters were simply more impressed with Lemon's season than Bearden's, quite possibly because Lemon pitched 293 innings next to Bearden's 230. Also, award voters have -- and I have no actual evidence to back this up -- generally discriminated against knuckleball pitchers.

Manager (and shortstop) Lou Boudreau didn't really lean on Bearden until the end of the season. Into the middle of September, Bearden had started only 23 games. Then, Bearden's amazing run that propelled the Indians into the World Series. Before his start on the 16th of September -- in the Indians 140th game (not including one tie) -- his record was just 14-7. But in his last six starts -- including one on two days rest, and the one-game pennant playoff on one day of rest -- Bearden went 6-0 with a 1.74 ERA.

Oh, and in the World Series he pitched a shutout in his only start, and clinched the Series-deciding Game 6 with five outs of scoreless relief in a one-run game.

So why is there a pretty good chance that you've never heard of Gene Bearden (who by the way was very nearly killed when his ship was sunk during World War II)? Because after going 20-7 as a rookie in 1948, he went 25-31 during the remainder of his brief career. Most knuckleball pitchers age well. Bearden peaked as a rookie.

Robinson's book echoes the explanation that's been told many times by different contemporaries:
    Near the end of the 1948 season we were playing the A's in Philadelphia, and Gene Bearden was pitching for us. Eddie Joost, an intelligent hitter who drew a lot of walks, reached first base. During a brief delay, Eddie said to me, "You know, we're stupid to be swinging at that knuckle curve Bearden throws because it's always a ball." Joost was right; the pitch came to the plate about knee high and quickly broke down and out of the strike zone. Word got around, and the hitters stopped swinging at that pitch after the '48 season. Bearden was never again as effective.

In fact, variations of that story have been told so many times that I can't help thinking there's something to it. Still, I've always wondered if it isn't just a little too convenient.

By my count (because there's no source for it), Bearden gave up a .245 batting average on balls in play in 1948. That seems like an exceptionally low figure, even for a knuckleball pitcher in 1948. Bearden struck out only 80 hitters (and walked 106) in his 230 innings that season. And while strikeout rates and strikeout-to-walk ratios weren't nearly as important then as they are now, those numbers weren't a great recipe for pitching success even in the late '40s.

Bearden's walk rate did go up after 1948 and his strikeout rate stayed roughly the same, which does suggest that hitters were taking more pitches against him. But I also think he was blessed with good luck in that one season, and if you're going to make a list of reasons why the Indians won their first (and so far, only) World Series since 1920, Bearden's luck is probably right up there with Boudreau's MVP campaign and Lemon's brilliant pitching.

Bob Feller's signature? Priceless.

December, 16, 2010
12/16/10
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I believe that Bob Feller signed more autographs than anyone else, ever.

I might be wrong about that. There might be an old soccer star in Italy, or some guy in Vermont who writes a lot of checks. But I can't imagine which American athlete would have signed more autographs than Bob Feller did, between reaching the majors when he was 17 and passing away Wednesday night, at 92.*

* According to Feller, he signed one of his first autographs near the end of his "summer vacation" with the Indians in 1936, just before beginning his senior year of high school. The recipient was a nine-year-old aspiring pitcher named Robin Roberts.

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Bob Feller
AP Photo/Nam Y. HuhFormer Cleveland Indians pitcher Bob Feller, left, signs an autograph for a fan before Opening Day this year.
I've got a signed photo, and Feller signed both of his autobiographies for me. Therein, a quick story ... Sometime in the early 1990s, Feller appeared at a baseball-card show in Kansas City, and so I showed up with a copy of "Strikeout Story," his 1947 memoir. There were no handlers or in-between men, and the line wasn't long. You just waited your turn, you handed Feller whatever you wanted him to sign, and could speak to him for a moment or two. I asked him about the Detroit Tigers' (alleged) sign-stealing in 1940, and he gave me his stock answer (which I was happy to hear directly from him; today, I'm sorry I didn't ask him about his Indians' stealing signs eight years later in another pennant race). Sitting on the table in front of Feller was a copy of his latest book, "Now Pitching: Bob Feller," along with a placard indicating one could purchase a signed copy for (as I recall) $25.

At that point, I was sort of collecting signed baseball books, and that seemed like a pretty good deal to me. I said I would like to buy one of his books, wrote a check, and expected Feller to reach under the table and retrieve a book, then sign it.

Nope. He took my check, asked me to write my name and address on a note card, tucked both into his shirt pocket, and sent me on my way. I assumed that would be the end of the matter. Hey, it was only 25 bucks and I'd just been in the presence of an Immortal. I could hardly complain.

Some months later, I was shocked when the postman delivered a package from Bob Feller.

I probably shouldn't have been shocked, because Bob Feller took his signature seriously.

During Feller's career, he made a great deal of money on the side, putting together barnstorming tours, doing big endorsement deals, and generally building the Bob Feller business whenever and wherever he could.

After his career, all of that just sort of went away, and the business was simply being Bob Feller. He would spend many years criss-crossing the country, driving alone from town to town, and making whatever money he could by selling his signature. For many years, if you wanted to meet Bob Feller, you could. If you had five or 10 dollars in your pocket, it was easy.

Mind you, this was before the stars of the 1950s and '60s turned baseball memorabilia into a huge business. And even with business booming, Feller just didn't excite Baby Boomers the way DiMaggio and Mantle and Mays and Williams did. My guess is that well into the '80s, Feller was still routinely selling his signature for less than 10 bucks a pop. And he sold a lot of them. Which is why it's easier to find a signed Bob Feller on eBay than an unsigned Bob Feller. And why, before today anyway, you could find one for an exceptionally reasonable price.

It's a funny thing, though. The fact that my Bob Feller autographs aren't "valuable" doesn't make them any less valuable to me. They are, in the only way that matters to this baseball fan, priceless.

Feller got through war, then got hurt

December, 16, 2010
12/16/10
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At the conclusion of the 1941 season, Bob Feller was 22 years old and he'd won 107 games in the major leagues. At that pace ... well, if Feller had continued pitching that well until he was 42, he would have challenged Cy Young's more impressive records.

A war got in the way.

The way Feller told the story, on the 7th of December he was driving his new Buick from his home in Iowa to Chicago, for a meeting with Cy Slapnicka, Cleveland's general manager, and manager Roger Peckinpaugh. Feller expected to sign a new contract for 1942.

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Bob Feller
AP Photo/U.S. NavyIn this March 6, 1943 photo provided by the U.S. Navy, Bob Feller, former Cleveland Indians ace, captains a 40 mm gun crew aboard one of Uncle Sam's battleships.
Car radios were still uncommon in 1941, and expensive. But when you win 107 games before your 23rd birthday, you can afford the radio and a tinny-sounding speaker. Crossing the Mississippi River into Illinois, Feller heard the bulletin: Japan had attacked Pearl Harbor.

"I knew that the purpose of our meeting had just changed," Feller would write, nearly 50 years later. He would tell Slapnicka and Peckinpaugh that instead of signing a new contract, he would be signing enlistment papers for the U.S. Navy. Immediately.

He could have waited to be drafted, and almost certainly would have been able to continue playing baseball through 1942, at least; with his father terminally ill, Feller was his family's sole financial support. Some players weren't drafted until after the 1943 season. But Feller went right in, voluntarily. A few months into his enlistment, tired of a cushy stateside posting, he pressed for combat duty and spent much of 1943 and '44 commanding a gunnery crew on a battleship, the U.S.S. Alabama.

By the time Feller returned to baseball in 1945, he'd missed more than three-and-a-half seasons. Among the first stars to come back, Feller would be a sort of guinea pig, as nobody knew what such a long layoff would mean for professional baseball players (many of whom would miss two or three full seasons).

In the event, most (though not all) of them picked up right where they'd left off.*

* Most of the stars, anyway. Many dozens of lesser players lost their prime seasons because of the war -- not to mention all the younger men who lost their lives or their health -- and never played in the majors, or even professional baseball, at all.

Of course, eventually another question would come up. From Feller's 1990 autobiography, "Now Pitching: Bob Feller":
    Then people began to wonder how we would have done if the war hadn't come along. Baseball fans filled many an hour in those days with that "what-if" question. Eventually, an analyst in Seattle, Ralph Winnie, sat down at his computer and figured out the answers.

    He took our individual stats for the last three years before our military services and our first three years after the war, then averaged them out on a per-season basis and projected them across the war years...

    In my case, Winnie projected that I would have 107 more games, finishing with 373 career wins instead of 266, with another 1,070 strikeouts, five no-hitters instead of three and 19 one-hitters instead of 12. He calculated that I would have finished with the sixth most wins in history instead of 28th and the seventh most shutouts instead of 29th.

In his book, Feller tempered those numbers a bit, writing, "It may not prove anything ... We could have been injured and missed a full season or slipped on a banana peel, who knows?"

In the years after Feller's book was published, he became more outspoken in his political views -- somewhat famously in these parts, during an ESPN.com chat he went off on "Hanoi Jane" Fonda -- and more willing to take credit for the statistics that might have been his, absent the war.

Realistically, I think such exercises are more instructive for hitters than pitchers, simply because hitters don't run the same injury risk that pitchers do. Feller might have been injured if he'd kept on pitching during the war years. From his Age 19 through Age 22 seasons, Feller averaged 309 innings per season ... though whether that means he was primed for an injury or was invulnerable to fatigue, I really can't hazard a guess.

Upon Feller's discharge from the Navy in August 1945, he returned to the Indians and pitched well in nine late-season starts. In 1946, he enjoyed one of his best seasons, leading the American League in wins (26), games pitched (48), games started (42), complete games (36), shutouts (10), innings (371) and strikeouts (348).

Feller got off to a fine start in 1947, but hurt his knee in June and was never really the same. From that point through the end of his career, nine mostly humdrum years later, he struck out just slightly more than four batters per nine innings.

People wonder how Bob Feller would have done if the war hadn't come along. I wonder how Bob Feller would have done if he hadn't lost his All-World fastball before he turned 29.

In his 92 years, Feller saw it all

December, 15, 2010
12/15/10
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I'm sorry to hear about Bob Feller's passing, if not surprised. Most of us have been around long enough what it means when a 92-year-old man is transferred to hospice care. At that point, one can only hope for a peaceful end and perhaps a few more good moments with loved ones.

Bob Feller actually lasted a bit longer than some thought. Almost a week ago, the Northern Ohio Journal actually reported Feller's death, and columnist Jim Ingraham wrote a lovely tribute. That was yanked from the Journal's website a few hours later, but I think this passage is a fine introduction:
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Bob Feller
AP PhotoBob Feller won his first 100 games before the age of 23. He died Wednesday at the age of 92.
    At either end of his life he mocked convention. He made his major league debut -- this is beyond outrageous -- at 17. In his first major league start he set a major league record for strikeouts in a game, and then after that season went back to high school for his senior year. Think about that.

    He lived to be 92. How many 92-year-olds do you know?

    The year he was born, Alexander Graham Bell was still alive. So were Wyatt Earp and Orville Wright.

    When Feller debuted in Van Meter, Iowa, Christy Mathewson was still alive. So were Honus Wagner, Napoleon Lajoie, and Cy Young.

    Ty Cobb? Not only was he still alive, he was STILL PLAYING!

    As a 17-year-old rookie with the Indians in 1936, Feller needed a place to live. Cy Slapnicka, the scout who signed him, found a room for him in a boarding house in Cleveland. One of Feller’s fellow-boarders in the house had fought in the war -- the Civil War.

As amazing all of those things are, the one thing that always sticks in my head is this: Bob Feller pitched against Lou Gehrig. All the other big stars in the American League in the late 1930s, too. Joe DiMaggio. Jimmie Foxx. Hank Greenberg. Ted Williams.

Of course they're all gone, now. Nearly all of them, anyhow. Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr was actually born a few months before Feller, and debuted in the majors roughly a year after Feller. Hall of Famer Monte Irvin was born just a few months after Feller, though thanks to baseball's segregation he wouldn't reach the (previously all-white) major leagues until he was 30.

Even with Feller's passing, they're still around. It just gets a little harder to find them, all the time.

Almost to the end, though, it was rarely hard to find Bob Feller. Just a few years ago, I saw him give a rousing talk at the SABR Convention in Cleveland. Last summer he was still regularly showing up at the ballpark, one of the few men on earth who had seen Babe Ruth hit, and pitched to Lou Gehrig. And he was still crusty, unimpressed by young players who haven't won a lot of games or enlisted in the Navy during a war or been elected to the Hall of Fame.

Too crusty, maybe, by just a little. Upon seeing Stephen Strasburg in the flesh, Feller said, "Call me when he wins his first 100."

Granted, I've probably said something similar a few times. But when Bob Feller said it, people actually paid attention. He wasn't nasty (well, not often). He was opinionated, and the older he got the more willing he was to express his opinions.

Of course, he won his first 100 games before he turned 23, and did enlist to fight in a war, and was elected to the Hall of Fame. If anyone ever earned the right to the occasional bout of crustiness, it was probably Rapid Robert Feller.

World Series-winning Tribe stole signs

December, 15, 2010
12/15/10
2:15
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More from Eddie Robinson's memoir, scheduled for publication in February, this passage concerns Robinson's Cleveland Indians down the stretch in 1948:
    One of our hitters thought it was time for desperate measures and suggested we try to get the visiting catcher's signs. We picked a spot in the Municipal Stadium scoreboard in center field, and placed one of our pitchers out there with a telescope sitting on a tripod. Our pitcher would let us know when we had the opposing catcher's signals. We had one of the grounds crew dressed in a white uniform sit in the bleachers alonside the scoreboard. For the hitters who wanted the signals, he'd hold his legs together for a fastball, spread them for a curveball, and get up and walk around if he didn't have the sign.

    Some of our hitters, including me, didn't want the signs...

    Joe Gordon, Ken Keltner, and some of the others may have benefitted from getting the signs, but it sure didn't help me. Of course, we didn't have the signs on the road, and it had no impact on the playoff game against the Red Sox in Boston or in the World Series ... I've always thought sign stealing from way out there was overrated, and that it rarely if ever has had any impact on the outcome of a game.

The Indians played three home games in the '48 World Series. They won Games 3 and 4, 2-0 and 2-1, and lost Game 5, 11-5. I would agree that it's unlikely that stealing signs helped them win the World Series ... but what about just getting into it? The Indians finished the schedule tied with the Red Sox. The way Robinson tells the story -- and yes, this was a long time ago -- the sign-stealing began shortly after September 6, with Cleveland in third place, three games behind the Yankees and four-and-a-half behind the first-place Red Sox.

From that point through Game 154, the Indians went 18-5. Of those 23 games, 20 were in Cleveland and the Indians won 16 of those. Most of those came against subpar competition, and again it's unlikely that sign-stealing would make a real difference in just 20 games ... On the other hand, isn't it funny how players on sign-stealing teams later say it probably didn't make any difference? Somebody must think it makes a difference, or so many teams over the years wouldn't have gone to such great efforts to do it.

To some degree, this is an empirical question. In the wake of Joshua Prager's 2001 Wall Street Journal story about the 1951 Giants stealing signs at the Polo Grounds, Retrosheet's Dave Smith demonstrated that the Giants' hitting did not improve while they were stealing signs ... which proves only that the Giants' hitting did not improve while they were stealing signs. It's perfectly possible that their hitting would have been even worse than it was, if they hadn't been getting the signs.

But looking at one or two teams in isolation doesn't give us much to go on. There are a number of examples of teams stealing signs through the employment of observers beyond a fence in center field, some of them well-documented. But I don't believe that anyone's ever put them all together, and checked each team's hitting stats while it was happening.

Any volunteers?

When a trade is more than a trade

August, 2, 2010
8/02/10
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In June, the GM of a fading team had any number of problems, but an immediate concern was a couple of real sore spots: the young left fielder was so egregiously awful that he’d been sent down to the minors, replaced by a spring training NRI. The aging slugger at first was slugging well enough with a .263/.328/.491 line, but his defense was pretty bad and he wasn’t really part of a long-term plan.

So our GM made a trade: He sent the slugger to another team and got three prospects back, one of whom was a Triple-A first baseman he could drop right into the starting lineup. The youngster rewarded his faith with a .286/.351/.490 line that’s even better than that of the player he traded. Plus he’s young and cost-controlled and actually gives a Rolling O about improving his defense. And we haven’t even mentioned the other two "free" prospects.
This is essentially the trade the Cleveland Indians pulled off when they sent Russell Branyan to Seattle.

While I can’t tell you much about Placeholder Jones or Warm Body Smith, the two (ostensible) prospects they actually got in return, I can tell you that since being returned to the majors, Cleveland's own Matt LaPorta has been the real live middle-of-the-order bat that he was supposed to turn into eventually. And although there are obviously other factors involved (LaPorta worked on his swing in Columbus, normal development), the fact is that LaPorta looks a lot more comfortable at first base than he ever did in left field, and getting to play every day seems to help as well. Is this because he isn’t looking over his shoulder anymore? Is he no longer pressing to prove he belongs? Is he simply benefiting from getting plate appearances nearly every day? I can’t tell you any one of these is true, but I can tell you that .286/.351/.490 is a very, very far cry from the .218/.290/.277 he was hitting before being sent back to Columbus on June 8.

Trading Branyan may have netted the Tribe two excellent young ballplayers. Frankly, I doubt it. If either player makes even one appearance in an Indians uniform in their respective lifetimes, I’ll be moderately flabbergasted. And the Indians didn’t save a lot of money in the deal, either, sending cash along with Branyan to defray his cost. No, the trade had one immediate benefit: It cleared out first base for Matt LaPorta to play every day.

If you look at the flurry of moves the Indians undertook, you might see a pure money-saving deal in sending Kerry Wood to the Yankees, and I won’t argue that $1.5M wasn’t a prime motivating factor. But as long as Wood was on the club, the team was going to use him to close games, meaning that Chris Perez would not get this experience, even though Perez is clearly the one of the two who is more likely to be an important player beyond 2010.
(For the record, I think that Jake Westbrook was traded for two reasons: to get Corey Kluber and to be nice to Jake Westbrook. Austin Kearns was traded to be nice to Austin Kearns and because he’s been pretty bad since his hot start. Jhonny Peralta was traded because he isn’t any good. Actually, Peralta’s leaving does open third base for extended looks at players like Jayson Nix and potentially Jared Goedert, but this is not likely to be as dramatic as LaPorta’s emergence.)

Down the road and (slightly) up the standings in the A.L. Central, the Royals sent Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth to Atlanta. For all the snide remarks about Farnsworth over the years, he’s pitched very well in 2010. And Tim Collins could be a terrific reliever. But one of the immediate benefits of this trade is that clearing Ankiel from the outfield leaves more chances for Alex Gordon and Mitch Maier to play regularly. (To this end, Jose Guillen should have been cleared as well, in my opinion.) Be objective: what is likely to contribute more to the Royals’ success as an organization: a highlight catch and a home run on a mistake fastball from Ankiel, or regular reps in the outfield and against major-league pitching for Alex Gordon? Even if it’s Maier who benefits more directly from Ankiel’s absence, the point still stands.

Washington almost certainly traded Matt Capps to get Wilson Ramos, but his departure also gives the team an opportunity to see if Drew Storen can handle the closing chores. Sending Cristian Guzman packing tells Ian Desmond not to worry about a slump costing him playing time, and lets them ... um ... I dunno, play Alberto Gonzalez at second more? (Not all options are super nifty.) The Houston Astros obviously traded Lance Berkman to trim payroll (and to be nice to Berkman), but it also gives them a chance to play new acquisition Brett Wallace every day without the fear that a few bad games will result in a fruit basket and the wazoo.

The vast majority of trades a non-contender makes serves one of two objectives: saving money or acquiring younger, cheaper talent. But it’s worth keeping in mind that sometimes, a less-obvious benefit is providing the opportunity for a player already in the organization to get the regular playing time he needs to develop. And every now and then, it’s almost like getting another prospect in the deal: one who was very close indeed to reaching the majors as an everyday player.

M's add veteran slugger for pennant push

June, 27, 2010
6/27/10
4:01
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Hey, I thought the Mariners were supposed be trading veterans away. But instead they do this:
OK, I'll bite ... Why on earth would the M's trade two young players for one old one? Geoff Baker got Jack Zduriencik on the phone:
    What makes this deal so curious is that the Mariners just gave up a promising young outfielder, who won the AA batting title last season, in exchange for an aging bat with a history of back woes at a time they are 14 games out of first place. In a phone conversation, Zduriencik explained his reasoning behind the move.

    "If you look at our team, as we move forward, just about every player who is here now will be here again next year," he said. "We're committed to the development of our players and that goal, that objective, has never changed for us. But part of that development process is also winning games. We want our players to be able to experience winning games this year. And we're trying to do what we can to give them what they need to get there."

In addition to that promising young outfielder (Carrera), the infielder (Diaz) isn't exactly chopped liver, either; he wasn't listed among the Mariners' notable prospects this spring, but he's only 21, has been solid for two straight seasons in the California League, and seems to have at least a moderately decent shot at someday making the majors.

But just moderately. And Carrera, who played well enough last year in Double-A to establish himself as a decent prospect, is hitting .268/.339/.315 this year in Triple-A. He's 23 with room to grow, but didn't figure to beat Ichiro Suzuki or Franklin Gutierrez or even Michael Saunders out of a job anytime soon.

The Mariners probably didn't give up much. It's still a deeply weird move for a team that's 14 games out of first place. Doesn't mean it's wrong. Just means that Zduriencik thinks he knows something the rest of us don't.

Two snake-bit franchises bit again

June, 25, 2010
6/25/10
2:22
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Well, let's just hope this was all some terrible misunderstanding:

News that his son, Cleveland Indians prospect Beau Mills, had been charged with felonious assault in Akron, Ohio, blindsided Astros manager Brad Mills on Thursday.

A surprised Mills said he learned of the development through an Astros spokeswoman before the start of his team’s 7-5 win over the San Francisco Giants.

“I did not know anything about it, to be honest with you,” Mills said after the game. “I’d be remiss if I were to make any other comment because I don’t know anything. I really don’t.”

Mills planned to reach his son via phone immediately afterward.

The Akron Beacon Journal’s online edition reported Beau Mills, 23, was one of three Indians minor leaguers charged in connection with a nightclub altercation earlier this month that left a man with a punctured lung and a fractured rib.

The bad news is that this is more bad news for the Indians.

The good news is that Mills isn't much of a "prospect" anymore. The 13th pick in the Rule 4 draft just three years ago, Mills played well in Class A in 2008, but since then he's struggled in Double-A and was a long shot to reach the majors someday even before these contretemps.

Hey, at least Carlos Santana's hitting.

Indians summon top prospect

June, 11, 2010
6/11/10
2:26
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Reacting to Enrique Rojas' breaking news about Carlos Santana, Jeff Sullivan writes:

    The Indians have had an unpleasant year, sitting well out of contention in last place in the Central. Santana, though, represents a bright spot, and a reason to keep watching through the end of the season. The 24 year old backstop, who came over in the Dodgers' trade for Casey Blake in 2008, has established himself as one of the best prospects in baseball, dominating every level and batting .307 with a .440 OBP and a .568 SLG in AAA through two months in 2010. He swings an All Star-level bat, and he plays well enough behind the plate to stick at the position in the future.

    Santana is as talented a young player as they come, and his promotion will give Indians fans a reason to get excited. It's bad news for Lou Marson, who's really struggled and is probably ticketed for a return to the minors, but marginal players get pushed aside when the upper-level players are ready.

It's also bad news for Steve Buffum, who won't have nearly as many chances to type "Tofu Lou" with Marson (presumably) dispatched to Triple-A Columbus, forthwith.

Meanwhile, there are so many things to love about Santana, whose performance has improved as he's moved up the ladder. He was great in fast-A, greater in Double-A, and sublimely brilliant in 56 Triple-A games this year. He's 24, though -- older than Matt Wieters and Buster Posey -- and so it's time to move him up and see what he's got.

It's manifestly unfair to expect Santana, all by himself, to turn the Indians around. Eventually he's going to need some help from Matt LaPorta, Luis Valbuena, and Michael Brantley. But Santana's the real thing, and at the least he'll give Indians fans something to take their minds off last place as we head into the summer.

Is walk-off bunt a breach of etiquette?

April, 29, 2010
4/29/10
2:36
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The last play of Wednesday night's Angels-Indians game was hard to watch for at least two people: loser Chris Perez and SweetSpot blogger Steve Buffum:

With two outs and runners at the corners, Chris Perez was summoned to face Howie Kendrick. Kendrick bunted Perez’ first pitch past him toward second base, where the deep-playing Luis Valbuena could only watch helplessly as Kendrick crossed first base to win the game.

After the game, Chris Perez expressed his opinion:

"It was a bad baseball play that happened to work out," Perez said afterward. "I don't want to say it was bush league. But you never see that. Ninety-nine percent of hitters in that situation would rather win the game with a hit, not a bunt."

Now, let me say, I totally agree with Perez. This was a bad baseball play. It was a stupid baseball play. I would even go so far as to say it was a bush league baseball play.

By Chris Perez.

Steve's argument is that if Perez had been a little more aware of his surroundings, he might have made a play on Kendrick's bunt.

Well, maybe. But I watched the play a few times, and I don't know that any power pitcher in the world could have done anything about that one. Mike Mussina in his prime, maybe. Kendrick just got a little lucky, pushing the ball past the pitcher and toward a second baseman who was playing deep.

What's really bush league is Chris Perez's reaction. I know he was frustrated, but really? Kendrick's not supposed to do whatever he can (within the rules) to win the game? I'm only halfway through this book and maybe I just haven't got to the part where it says you're not supposed to bunt with a runner on third base in the ninth inning. But I'm pretty sure that Chris Perez is the first pitcher in the world who thinks even little guys without much power are supposed to swing hard every time.

Indians' top prospect opens with bang(s)

April, 9, 2010
4/09/10
5:29
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Aaron Gleeman on the great catching prospect you might not know yet:
Part of the reason why the Indians were willing to trade both Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach last season is that they have stud catching prospect Carlos Santana waiting in the wings at Triple-A.

Acquired from the Dodgers in mid-2008 as part of the Casey Blake deal, Santana was initially expected to begin this season on the disabled list because of a broken hamate bone in right hand suffered while playing winter ball. Instead, he celebrated his 24th birthday last night by going 4-for-5 with two homers and a double in the Triple-A opener.

For now Lou Marson is Cleveland's starting catcher and at just 24 years old he's a solid enough prospect in his own right, but when Santana is ready the Indians won't hesitate to clear a path for him and that time may be right around the corner.

Just last week, I read somewhere that there aren't any good young catchers these days. I read something like that every few years, and every few years there's another new crop. Today it's Santana, Buster Posey and Jesus Montero, all of whom rank among the 10 best prospects in the minors.

The Indians are obviously blessed with young catchers, as Marson's only 11 weeks older than Santana. But it's far from clear how good Marson can be; in roughly the same playing time, he's got a .314/.433/.416 line in Double-A, .277/.361/.360 line in Triple-A. About all we can say for sure about Marson is that he'll draw his share of walks, which immediately puts him ahead of most young catchers.

So, yeah: Marson's a perfectly fine place-holder, but it would be lovely for the Indians if he played so well over the next month or two or three -- however long it takes Santana to force his way into the majors -- they could flip him for a catcher-hungry team and get another prospect (or two). Because the Indians are essentially playing one game: Prospect Acquisition. Get enough of them, and they can compete in a weak division every year. Don't get enough, and just hope to get lucky every few years. At this point they're doing well with hitters, but the jury's still out (way out) with pitchers. And they have to hit on both.

Indians cut bait with former No. 1 Sowers

March, 31, 2010
3/31/10
2:24
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It's a shame what happens to young pitchers ...

    The Cleveland Indians have parted company with left handed starting pitcher Jeremy Sowers placing him on waivers according to FoxSports.com. Sowers was selected with the 6th pick in the 2004 MLB draft.

    It looked as if the young lefty would be a mainstay in the Indians rotation for years to come after his rookie season in 2006 which saw him go 7-4 with 3.57 ERA including 2 shutouts. The last 3 seasons haven't been as kind to the 26 year old went a combined 11-26 with an ERA well over 5.

    Sowers, who was out of options, has been battling a strained shoulder this spring.

For the record, those 2006 numbers simply weren't sustainable. In 88 innings, Sowers struck out 35 hitters. That can theoretically work, to a limited extent, if you have great control and keep the ball down almost all of the time. But that wasn't Sowers. In the minors, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 3-1 and he gave up one home run every 18 innings. In the majors, his K/BB ratio dropped by more than 50 percent and his home-run rate more than doubled.

This is idle speculation, but I'd be willing to bet that he just doesn't have the arm strength at 26 that he had at 21 when the Indians drafted him. Pitching is a tough profession for a young man.

No. 4 Starter Watch: Indians

March, 29, 2010
3/29/10
10:14
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Sorry about missing this one! Sheldon Ocker:


    The clock is running on Mitch Talbot.

    By the time a player is 26, he needs to make a move to establish himself in a big-league career. But Talbot turned 26 in October and despite having won 13 games in consecutive Triple-A seasons, he had little to look forward to.

    Talbot might still be stuck in the Tampa Bay Rays' farm system if not for two fortuitous events: He ran out of options and could not be sent to the minors without clearing waivers, and the Indians were looking for a team to take catcher Kelly Shoppach.

    The Rays got Shoppach, and the Tribe acquired Talbot. Initially, it appeared to be a trade strictly of convenience, with the Rays dealing a pitcher they might lose on waivers, and the Indians getting rid of a catcher due for a large raise because he was eligible for arbitration.

    But it soon became clear that the Indians had obtained a pitcher about whom they thought highly, a pitcher who might land in the rotation. That became a reality last Friday, when manager Manny Acta made it official: Talbot will join starters Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson with one vacancy yet to be filled.

    --snip--

    If there was a flaw in Talbot's repertoire, it was his slider.

    "I was just developing a slider the past two years," he said. "I already threw a curveball, but my pitching coach said he didn't like it very much. It wasn't very sharp."

    The curveball has been put away in the attic, and the slider apparently has advanced to the point where it is a usable pitch.

    "I would throw a couple of good ones here and there," Talbot said of his early trials with the pitch. "It was getting close last year, then I got hurt. I threw it in fall ball, and now it feels pretty good. From what I hear [pitching coach] Tim Belcher is pretty excited about it."


Talbot's got essentially two-and-a-half seasons in Triple-A, and his numbers have been fairly consistent: 4.23 ERA, 2.7 walks and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He's given up few homers, only 25 in 376 innings. It's a good record, but not a great one. As Sickels writes, "Nothing about him is spectacular, but he throws strikes and uses what he has to good effect. He's an older prospect ... but it wouldn't surprise me to see him pitch surprisingly well, sort of like Randy Wells did with the Cubs last year."

The Wells comparison is a good one. Talbot's one year younger than Wells (who got his shot with the Cubs last spring). In 309 Triple-A innings, Wells has a 4.28 ERA with 3.1 walks and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He wasn't as stingy with the home runs as Talbot, giving up 34.

But before we go jumping to any crazy conclusions, it's worth mentioning that Wells, though a wonderful surprise to just about everyone, probably isn't as good as his 3.05 ERA with the Cubs last season might suggest. While he kept his home run and walk rates down, his strikeout rate also fell. I've looked at three projections, and all have Wells with an ERA in the 4.25-4.50 range this season.

Which seems reasonable for Talbot, except with an American League cherry on top. Which means an ERA somewhat north of 4.50 but south of 5.00 ... and that's perfectly acceptable for a fifth starter pitching for a team that lost 97 games last year.

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