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OK, let's be brutally honest here about Jon Lester's complete game 6-1 victory on Monday night: It came against the Seattle Mariners. A lot of pitchers look pretty good against Seattle.

Nonetheless, it was Boston's first nine-inning complete game of the season and first since Josh Beckett threw a shutout last June. In fact, Beckett's shutout was Boston's only nine-inning complete game in 2011.

So it was a good sign that Lester went the distance (he did pitch eight innings in a 3-1 loss to Toronto back in his second start). For a guy who has had difficulty keeping his pitch counts down, he threw 119 pitches. He didn't walk anybody, although he threw first-pitch strikes to just 15 of 34 hitters. He struck out six, which at least was an improvement over his past two starts when he put away just five batters in 11 innings. I don't think we suddenly say the Jon Lester of 2008 through August 2011 is back, but it's a small step forward.

Of course, the Red Sox need a big step forward. Remember the Lester mentioned as a leading Cy Young candidate heading into last season? They need that guy back, if he ever existed in the first place. Lester's career high in innings came back in 2008, his first full season in the majors, when he pitched 210.1 innings. Last season, that total dipped to 191.2. Staff aces need to go deep into games. Imagine what an extra 30 or 40 innings would do in saving innings for the bullpen.

The Red Sox, of course, began the day in last place in the American League East. The Angels and Phillies also began the day in last place in their divisions. All three teams are under .500 and looking for small positives. Lester throws well against the Mariners? Hey, that's a positive. Joe Blanton beats the Astros? That's a positive. Small steps.

It has me wondering: Which of these teams -- all World Series contenders back in March -- is the best bet to take the big steps and reach the postseason? Let's backtrack a bit first.

Here were the odds to win the World Series for the three teams at the start of the season, from a certain gambling website:

Red Sox: 10-1
Angels: 7-1
Phillies: 6-1

And the current odds:

Red Sox: 14-1
Angels: 12-1
Phillies: 10-1

I'm actually surprised those odds haven't fallen a bit more, but it's a reminder that we're not even at the quarter pole yet.

Here were the preseason odds to make the playoffs that ran on ESPN Insider, via Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system:

Red Sox: 61.1 percent
Angels: 68.1 percent
Phillies: 62.2 percent

ESPN's panel of baseball personnel was even more optimistic about the Angels and Phillies. Here were the playoff percentages from the 50-person voting panel back on Opening Day:

Red Sox: 32 percent
Angels: 92 percent
Phillies: 86 percent

Not only were the Angels an overwhelming pick to the make the playoffs, 18 of the 50 voters picked them to win the World Series. Interesting that while Dan's numbers-based projected rated the three teams' playoff odds pretty similarly, the Red Sox were viewed in much less regard by the human prognosticators.

And now, as each team sits under .500? The current playoff odds via Coolstandings.com that run on ESPN.com:

Red Sox: 29.8 percent
Angels: 17.8 percent
Phillies: 31.5 percent

Clay Davenport also calculates projected playoffs odds. His system still likes the Red Sox in particular (percentages entering Monday's games):

Red Sox: 65.9 percent
Angels: 20.8 percent
Phillies: 51.6 percent

Clay projects Boston winning 88 games. Maybe his system views Lester as a Cy Young contender.

Now, this is where I pick which of these three teams will make the playoffs. Of course, all three could make it; not a big surprise if that happens. But if I had to pick one team, it's the Phillies. "Baseball Today" podcast host/KaraBlog author/SweetSpot contributor Eric Karabell says I can't do this; he says I've been bagging on the Phillies too much. He says I have to pick the Angels. I think Karabell is misremembering a few things. After all, I did have the Phillies to win the division and was one of just four of those ESPN folks to have the Angels missing the playoffs.

Look, the Red Sox can pound the old leather. My favorite stat: They have 100 doubles, 24 more than the Royals and at least 40 more than half the teams in baseball. The Angels have the advantage of playing the Mariners and A's 36 times this year, still have that great-on-paper rotation, and you know Albert Pujols will go on a tear at some point (although maybe we don't know that).

But I still see too many question marks on those teams. I need to see Lester and Beckett pitch several good games in a row. I need Vernon Wells and Erick Aybar and a few others hitting for the Angels. So here are five quick reasons I'm voting for the Phillies.

1. National League parity.

The Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks each won at least 94 games last season, but there's a high degree of possibility that no team will win that many in 2012. Heck, no team may win 90. This suggests the two wild cards may only have to win 85 or 86 games or so. Considering the mediocrity we've seen in the NL Central and NL West divisions outside the Cardinals and Dodgers, it seems like a good bet that two wild cards will come out of the NL East.

2. The Phillies' offense is bad ... but so is much pretty much every other team's offense in the NL.

The Phillies rank ninth in the NL in runs scored. They ranked seventh a year ago. Yes, Carlos Ruiz and Juan Pierre are leading the attack right now. The point isn't so much that this is suddenly going to turn into an offensive juggernaut once Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return and once Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino start hitting better, but merely to suggest that the Phillies' offense isn't a huge albatross when you compare it across the league.

3. They have Jonathan Papelbon.

OK, Charlie Manuel hasn't exactly done a good job of using him in high-leverage situations, but in a season where closers are falling prey to injuries and blown saves everywhere you look, Papelbon will still prove a small advantage over 162 games.

4. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels.

I still wouldn't trade them for another trio in baseball.

5. Blanton and Vance Worley.

Blanton lowered his ERA to 2.96 with seven strong innings against Houston on Monday. He has a 35/7 strikeout/walk ratio and has allowed just two home runs in 48.2 innings. Worley is once again proving skeptics wrong, with a 3.07 ERA and 45/15 strikeout/walk ratio in 44 innings. The rotation is five-deep and that depth will slowly show up over 162 games.

What do you think? If you haven't, vote in the poll at the top of the page.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

While the Nationals lost in Bryce Harper's home debut, they clung to first place thanks to the Phillies-Braves battle. If you left the Phillies for dead because the right side of their infield is on the DL and Cliff Lee, also injured, hasn’t even begun throwing, then you made a first-month mistake. On Tuesday night as they beat the Braves 4-2, Philadelphia reminded you why you shouldn’t be surprised when the Phillies come back from an early grave and eat your brai … . Well, you shouldn't be surprised when they stay alive in the so-called "Division of Death."

First, the Phillies have their set stars who aren’t missing in action. Cole Hamels ran off his fourth straight quality start of the season. He put the team in a position to win yet again, even though he was facing a Braves team averaging more than five runs per game. Even without Lee, the rest of the Phillies’ star-staffed rotation has notched 17 quality starts in 21 turns -- delivering enough ballgames that even a team with a weak offense can win.

That same rotation has had to take four “tough losses” (that’s an "L" in a quality start, per Baseball-Reference.com) because of the anemic offense. That can’t be chalked up to injuries alone: Rookie Freddy Galvis might not be ready for big league pitching while filling in for Chase Utley. But that’s just one lineup slot hampered by injury. Among the guys the Phillies are counting on, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco both have OPS marks below .600. Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino were both getting on base at less than a .300 clip before Tuesday night’s action.

That’s not just injury related, that’s a collection of slow starts. And it won’t last because all four vets are better than that, and they’re the players on the spot who will turn the Phillies offense around now, not later, once Howard and Utley return.

Sometimes an offense needs a nudge, though, and the Braves’ defense certainly obliged. History sees hits and runs, but it also recorded an error on Martin Prado's fourth-inning flub in left field when he flat out missed Ty Wigginton's two-out single through the left side, allowing Pence to follow Polanco home for a 2-0 lead.

In the eighth, with the game tied and Phillies on second and third, Jonny Venters got what he needed, striking out Polanco with a slider … that got away from Brian McCann, plating the lead run because John Mayberry Jr. was alertly coming home already. The Phillies’ fourth run was a well-placed hit: With the infield pulled around to the left side on the shift with the pull-hitting Pence at the plate, Pence responded by poking a single through that gaping hole on the right side.

Call those events situational snafus or perfect execution, either way the Phillies will take it. Those things won’t always go the Phillies’ way on any given night, of course; Prado has a strong arm in left, and if he comes up with that ball off Wigginton’s bat, Pence may not have made it home, or may have just held up. McCann isn’t among the very best receivers in the game, but he isn’t a brick wall either. After achieving rare notoriety as a set-up man Venters is going to get his man at home plate more often than not.

But as the Phillies try to crawl back up from their slow start at the plate, they won’t get all the way there on big innings and blowouts -- things this lineup may not have. They’ll need to get by with nights like Tuesday, where they can exploit the athleticism of Pence or Mayberry or Victorino. Even absent Lee, thanks to Hamels & Co., games will be in reach. They may eventually get real thunder from Utley and Howard, but in the meantime they’ll have to get by with what opportunity affords them.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

My parents still love watching baseball, even Seattle Mariners baseball. I called them Monday evening to see if they watched Philip Humber's perfect game on Saturday and my dad said he watched a few innings, went out to the mow the lawn and came back just in time to see the bottom of the ninth.

He then proceeded to complain about Chone Figgins ("He just can't hit.") and Justin Smoak ("Most good hitters don't take three or four years to figure things out."). Hey, he's right. And you can't blame him; he's been watching inept offense for two-plus years now. But then he said something that sums up a problem not unique to the Mariners:

"You know, even with their great pitching staff the Phillies can't win either."

Indeed, the Philadelphia Phillies entered Monday's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 2.46 ERA. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley had allowed just 22 runs in their 13 starts. It doesn't take a Ph.D. in Sabermetrics to realize that's fewer than two runs per start. But after losing 9-5 to Arizona (made closer with a five-run outburst in the ninth inning) the Phillies are now 7-10. That's the same record as the Mariners, and the Phillies have scored just 48 runs, an average of 2.82 runs per game.

That's right, the Philadelphia Phillies -- the five-time defending National League East champs -- have become the Seattle Mariners.

OK, OK ... I kid, Phillies fans. But the Phillies have scored 12 fewer runs than the Mariners, a team whose OPS leader is Brendan Ryan, a guy with a .190 batting average. We all know the laundry list of the Phillies' problems -- Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the disabled list; Jimmy Rollins hitting .242 with no power (two doubles, no home runs) and just four walks; Placido Polanco hitting .185 with one extra-base hit and one RBI; John Mayberry Jr. hitting .205 with no walks and 14 strikeouts. And so on. In fact, it's fair to ask: Where would the Phillies be without Juan Pierre and Ty Wigginton?

Man, those 45-homer seasons from Ryan Howard seem like a long time ago.

What I'm wondering: How many runs do the Phillies need to score to contend for the playoffs? After all, offense is still 50 percent of the game.

Entering Monday's action, the National League was hitting a collective .242/.310/.376 -- a .686 OPS that is 24 points lower than 2011's numbers. That figure takes us back to the offensive levels of 1988 to 1992, when the NL OPS figures were .673, .678, .704, .689 and .684. So one way of looking at this: Let's assume it will take 87 wins to make the playoffs. What's the lowest run total for an NL team from that 1988-1992 period that won at least 87 games?

For you baseball historians out there, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the 1988 Dodgers scored just 628 runs, or 3.88 runs per game. That actually put the Dodgers sixth in a 12-team league. The Dodgers allowed 544 runs and finished 94-67, exceeding their projected record by three wins.

Back to the Phillies. They're on pace to score 457 runs. Obviously, that won't cut it, but of course the offense won't be that bad all season. It will pick up, that we can predict. In 2011, they allowed 529 runs, the lowest full-season total since the 1969 Orioles allowed 517. So if they match the '88 Dodgers' total of 628 runs, they're still in good shape and project as a 93-win team, assuming the same run prevention as 2011.

What will it take to score 628 runs? They'd have to score 580 runs over the final 145 games, or 4.0 runs per game. Or just about what the National League average has been so far -- 3.94 runs per game entering Monday's game.

But just like the offense is likely to improve moving forward, the pitching staff probably won't match last season's historic stinginess. With Cliff Lee heading to the DL over the weekend with a strained oblique, we see the precariousness of relying so much on a few starting pitchers. The Diamondbacks lit up Kyle Kendrick, Lee's replacement, for 11 hits and seven runs in three innings on Monday. Kendrick had a nice season in 2011, posting a 3.22 ERA over 114.2 innings, including 15 starts. Kendrick, however, lives on a fine line of success. Among 145 pitchers last season with at least 100 innings, his strikeout rate ranked 138th. So as he steps in for Lee -- who may miss a month, meaning four or five starts -- don't expect a 3.22 ERA from Kendrick.

That's just one reason to expect the staff to allow a few more runs. Let's say 30 more than a year ago. That's 559 runs. Now that '88 Dodgers total of 628 runs projects to a win total of ... 89.5.

That might still be enough to squeak into the playoffs. Four runs a game. That's all you need, Phillies fans.

But what if the Phillies average 3.8 runs per game the rest of the season instead of 4.0? That projects to 599 runs scored.

And 86 wins. One run every five games. A couple of extra bloops or bleeders per week. A few ground balls with eyes. The difference between making the playoffs and going home.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

First: Cliff Lee was incredible against the Giants, throwing 10 shutout innings to become just the third pitcher this millennium to do that in a ballgame, and the first since Mark Mulder did it against the Astros on April 23, 2005. And before you ask, the last time anyone dialed it up to 11 a la Nigel Tufnel of Spinal Tap? The incomparable Dave Stewart back on August 1, 1990. (This little bit of baseball tidbit joy has been brought to you by Baseball-Reference.com, as if you didn’t already know.)

Second: OK, that’s pretty amazing. But what’s even more amazing? He didn’t even have the highest game score in that ballgame. Matt Cain did, outpointing Lee 86-85 by allowing just three baserunners in his nine shutout innings to Lee’s seven hits and seven K's. Admittedly, Game Score might be sort of sabermetrics’ answer to figure skating-style judging, but to put these nights into perspective, neither game would rate among the top 300 starts by game score from 2000-2012. So, really good, but not as good as Cain’s smackdown of the Pirates on Friday the 13th -- his last time out -- when he had a Game Score of 96. That’s awesome, but that’s Cain in a nutshell. Even when the other guy’s getting the immediate attention, whoever that guy may be, Cain might just be the better pitcher.

Third: In contrast, Bartolo Colon’s Game Score while shutting down the Angels was 79, which is good, but he had two starts that were actually better in May for the Yankees. Of course, those were against the Athletics and Orioles, neither of whom had Albert Pujols in their lineup. Which might make me the Russian judge of Game Scores, because beating the Angels now seems a lot more impressive than beating the A’s or O’s then, especially when he had Seth Smith and Jonny Gomes patrolling the outfield corners.

Home: Tweet of the Night, on what baseball rumbles must really be about:

Whenever benches clear and nothing happens, I like to imagine that everyone had to rush the diamond to hold an impromptu Socratic seminar.

— Steph Bee (@StephBee118) April 19, 2012

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Thirty years ago, many baseball executives would have looked at Madison Bumgarner's 3.21 ERA and 13-13 record and said he doesn't know how to win.

We know better now, of course, which is why the San Francisco Giants signed the 22-year-old left-hander to a six-year, $35.56 million deal that buys out his first year of free agency and includes $12 million options for 2018 and 2019 (which can escalate if he finishes in the top three of the Cy Young voting or wins the award).

Bottom line: If he stays healthy those options years will be an absolute bargain. Consider the 2012 salaries of some middle-of-the-rotation starters:

Derek Lowe, $15 million
Ryan Dempster, $14 million
Bronson Arroyo, $12 million
Kyle Lohse, $11.9 million
Ervin Santana, $11.2 million
Edwin Jackson, $11 million

Tim Lincecum, Bumgarner's teammate, will make $40.5 million over the next two seasons, and while Lincecum's résumé includes two Cy Young Awards, there's an argument to be made that Bumgarner was the better pitcher in 2011. In just 12.1 fewer innings, Bumgarner walked 40 fewer batters, allowed three fewer home runs and had a far superior strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.15 to 2.56). Lincecum allowed fewer hits, but some of that can be explained by Bumgarner's .322 batting average allowed on balls in play. Only four qualified starters allowed a higher mark, so with a little regression in that category you can see why some people considered Bumgarner a sleeper Cy Young candidate this year.

For what the Giants will be paying Lincecum over two seasons, they will potentially get for three years of Bumgarner down the road. That sounds like a pretty good deal to me. Take it even one step further: If Bumgarner improves just a bit, and with his ability to throw strikes, the obvious comparison is Cliff Lee. That's how good he could be and why I do see a Cy Young Award in his future. And the Phillies are paying Lee $21.5 million this year and $25 million per year from 2013-2015. Bumgarner would vest at $16 million in 2018 or '19 if he wins the Cy Young Award, a salary the Giants would happily pay.

The risk, as it is with any young pitcher, is health. Bumgarner did have a dead arm in spring training of 2010, although recovered to eventually join the Giants rotation later in the season and help them win a World Series as a rookie. Bumgarner's contract is also the largest ever given a pitcher with fewer than two seasons of experience. Still, it seems like a good risk for both sides. Bumgarner gets the guaranteed payday and even if he ends up being underpaid relative to performance by the end of the contract, he'll still be just 30 years when he hits free agency after 2019 -- a year younger than Lee was in 2010.

Considering his age, the Giants would be wise to be cautious in his pitch counts for at least another season. He averaged just 97 pitches per start last season, with only three starts of 120-plus pitches. I'd like to see him handled the way the Dodgers limited Clayton Kershaw in 2010, his age-22 season, when Kershaw averaged 105.9 pitches per start. With the right amount of caution, the Giants can turn Bumgarner loose in 2013 ... and maybe, like Kershaw, he'll be the owner of shiny trophy.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

After my father and I nearly froze to death from 16 innings of Opening Day “magic” at Thursday’s Indians game, he turned to me and asked, “What if it goes extra innings on Saturday as well?” I responded by saying, “Ubaldo Jimenez will probably give up seven or eight runs in the first couple of innings. Dan Wheeler will be sent in for mop-up duty, and he’ll give up a few more. The offense will be terrible, so it will assuredly end in nine innings.”

I’m glad to say that if I had to be wrong about one of those statements, it was the one about Jimenez. Nobody really knew what to expect from Jimenez today, but Indians fans seemed to fear the worst. He was all over the map in spring training, and was shaky after he plunked Troy Tulowitzki against Colorado last Sunday. With a five-game suspension looming (Jimenez announced that he will drop his appeal) and the ongoing drama with the Rockies, would he be able to put all of that behind him and help the Indians bounce back from their heartbreaking loss Thursday?

Jimenez looked sharp today, and despite the fact that he earned a no-decision in Cleveland's 7-4, 12-inning loss, he took a perfect game into the sixth inning, and a no-hitter into the seventh. From what I saw on the radar gun at the ballpark, he topped out at 93 mph and looked like he was throwing a lot of off-speed pitches. His command, a problem at times this spring, was sharp until the sixth inning. He was able to quiet the bat of Jose Bautista, which no Indians pitcher seemed able to do on Thursday (including Justin Masterson).

While I’m certainly not ready to declare last summer’s trade with Colorado a complete success yet, it has to make Indians fans feel a little bit better to see a strong opening performance from Jimenez. I expected to see more tension and excitement at today’s game as it reached the later innings. The closest I’ve ever been to witnessing a no-hitter was when Cliff Lee took one into the eighth inning against the Cardinals on June 14, 2009; on that night, you could just feel the electricity in the air at Progressive Field, as if something really special was taking place. Today, much of the crowd around me appeared to be disengaged, or Toronto fans. Nobody really seemed to fully grasp the performance they were seeing from Jimenez.

To be fair, most people with a rooting interest in the Indians were preoccupied with complaints about the Indians’ offense. The Tribe has now played 28 innings of baseball in just two games. In those 28 innings, they’ve scored eight runs, six of which have come via the home run. The Indians left just three runners on base on Saturday, two of which were left stranded in the 12th inning after Toronto had already gone ahead by four. While there were a number of missed opportunities on Thursday, they didn’t even have any opportunities to miss this afternoon. In their first two games they’ve had just 12 hits, and three of those came in the bottom of the 12th today. The “major” free agent signing this winter, Casey Kotchman, has started the season 0-for-12. He has yet to hit a ball out of the infield; a couple of his groundouts today didn’t even make it past the pitcher’s mound.

The “Bullpen Mafia” has shown some signs of weakness early in the season, with Chris Perez, Jairo Asencio, Vinnie Pestano, and Tony Sipp all responsible for surrendering runs in pivotal situations. With the offense as weak as it has looked these first two games, the Indians would probably still be playing Thursday’s game if the bullpen continued to hold the Toronto offense scoreless. Both Thursday and today, manager Manny Acta appeared slow to pull the trigger once Perez and Sipp got into trouble. Nobody was warming up, and nobody even tried to stall for time to get someone else up in the bullpen. When your team is struggling to score runs, a quick hook with a struggling bullpen pitcher may be the best form of action.

Even though the Indians have only played two games thus far, Masterson and Jimenez have been the bright spots in both. This offseason, fans were most worried about the starting pitching and the offense. Even though it’s far too soon to declare the starting pitching situation “fine,” I’ve seen enough from the offense to know that I’m concerned. Masterson went eight innings on Thursday, and Jimenez lasted seven today; you can’t ask for much more than that from your starting pitchers.

Now the offense needs to step up and prove that these two games were a fluke, and not the norm. Perhaps they just need to start a feud with Troy Tulowitzki and the Colorado Rockies. It seemed to work for Jimenez.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Stephanie Liscio blogs about the Indians for the SweetSpot network at "It's Pronounced 'Lajaway'," and can be followed on Twitter at @stephanieliscio.

If my math is correct, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees still have 17 games against each other. The Rays and Boston Red Sox have 18 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees have 18 games against each other. And all three teams have 18 against the Toronto Blue Jays.

That's 107 more games of American League East mini-wars, in which every game will be treated as the one that may win -- or lose -- a division championship.

Friday's game at the Trop was as interesting as a regular-season game can be, with a hundred little moves worth discussing and dissecting. Rays manager Joe Maddon was already in midseason form, calling for a squeeze bunt, pinch-hitters and lefty/righty matchups out of the bullpen. Yankees counterpart Joe Girardi went to his trusty binder in the bottom of the first inning and got burned. And the greatest closer of all time failed to do his job. Yes, I'll take more, thank you very much.

A few quick highlights about a game you could write 3,000 words about:

• With two out in the first and runners on second and third, Girardi had CC Sabathia walk Sean Rodriguez to pitch to Carlos Pena. Girardi has a bit of unusual obsession with the intentional walk. Sabathia, for example, issued 17 IBBs over the previous three seasons. Compare that to guys like Justin Verlander (0), Cliff Lee (3), Roy Halladay (5) or Jon Lester (0). Anyway, while it's true Pena struggles against left-handers (.133 in 2011, .179 in 2010), it's also true that he's a very patient hitter willing to take a walk. Juicing the bases forces Sabathia to throw a strike. Pena worked the count to 3-2 and drilled a fastball for a grand slam. An intentional walk on Opening Day with two out in the first inning? Just ... well, wow.
• Down 6-5, the Rays had a great chance to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth when they put runners on the corners with no outs against David Robertson. Maddon sent Stephen Vogt in to hit for Elliot Johnson, Vogt's first major league at-bat. Robertson struck him out on four pitches -- two 92 mph cutters and a fastball up sandwiched around a curveball in the dirt. With Jose Molina up and a 1-1 count, Maddon sent the runners ... except Molina missed the squeeze sign and instead fouled off the pitch. Maddon, with the proverbial guts of a cat burglar, went right back to the squeeze, but Molina fouled it off for strike three. Robertson than fanned Matt Joyce to escape the jam.
• Mariano Rivera entered to close out it out. Desmond Jennings singled to right-center and Ben Zobrist tripled to deeper right-center. Girardi -- remember, he loves the intentional walk -- gave free passes to Evan Longoria and Luke Scott to load the bases. Once again, Girardi left his pitcher with no margin for error. Rivera fell behind 3-1 to Rodriguez but came back to strike him out, bringing up Pena. He got the count to 1-2 and the strikeout-prone Pena looked like a dead duck. Instead, Rivera threw a meaty pitch over the middle of the plate and Pena lofted a deep fly off the base of the wall in left-center. Game over. His first hit ever off Rivera. "Oh, yeah. [I was] very aware of it," Pena said. "His ball moves so much that your eyes deceive you." But Pena's eyes mapped this Rivera cutter, giving him a three-hit, five-RBI day. And as Pena did a postgame on-field interview, B.J. Upton delivered a shaving cream pie in the face that tasted just right.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Considering the Phillies have three Cy Young candidates by themselves, it's not easy picking a three-man Cy Young ballot in the National League. Roy Halladay collected 14 of 39 first-place votes to edge out Clayton Kershaw, with nine different pitchers receiving first-place votes. Aces everywhere, it seems.

Points on a 7-4-3 basis.

OK, let's do some quick math.

By worst-case scenario, I don't mean "Chase Utley out of for the year, Ryan Howard out for the year, Roy Halladay injures his shoulder" and so on.

But let's try a few assumptions and see how that could affect the Phillies' bottom line in terms of wins and losses.

1. Chase Utley misses half of the season.

We'll slot Freddy Galvis in his place. Projecting Utley with the same numbers as last season, this would be a net loss of about 15 runs over 300 plate appearances.

2. Ryan Howard misses half of the season.

While Howard is no longer the $20 million superstar his contract suggests, he did create 97 runs in 644 plate appearances. Some combo of John Mayberry, Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome isn't going to match that, especially if Wigginton gets too much playing time. Let's say 10 runs worse over 300 plate appearances.

3. Declines from Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco and Hunter Pence.

The first three are a year older. Pence played out of his mind for two months. Let's say 25 runs worse.

4. Decline from Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Vance Worley.

I'm not talking huge drop-offs here, but it's hard to imagine the Big Three doing any better. Halladay allowed 74 runs in 2010, 65 a year ago (albeit in fewer innings). In Lee's first stint with the Phillies, he allowed 35 runs in 12 starts; in 2011, he allowed 66 in 32 starts. Hamels allowed six fewer runs than 2010. Worley exceeded expectations as a rookie. Let's give eight runs to Halladay, 10 Hamels, 12 to Lee and 15 to Worley. That's 45 more runs allowed.

5. Decline from bullpen/No. 5 starter.

The Phillies' bullpen was effective in 2011 with a 3.45 ERA. Jonathan Papelbon-for-Ryan Madson should be an equal exchange but some of the other guys may not match their 2011 numbers. Same goes for spot starter Kyle Kendrick (3.22 ERA). Plus there's the loss of Roy Oswalt to consider. Let's give 15 more runs to the bullpen and 15 more from the No. 5 slot in the rotation.

So we're losing 50 runs on offense and adding 75 runs on defense.

That gives us 663 runs scored and 604 runs allowed ... that's still good for 88 wins.

Is that a conservative worst-case scenario? No, it's actually a pretty ambitious decline of 14 fewer wins. Since 1996, 17 teams have won 100 games. Their average decline the following season is minus-6.6 wins. The five biggest declines:

2001-02 Mariners: -23 wins
2005-06 Cardinals: -17 wins
1998-99 Yankees: -16 wins
1999-00 D-backs: -15 wins
2009-10 Yankees: -8 wins
1999-00 Braves: -8 wins

It's no surprise that the 2001-02 Mariners and 1998-99 Yankees suffered big declines considering they were coming off seasons of 116 and 114 wins. The 2005-06 Cardinals declined almost exclusively due to a big increase in runs allowed, 634 to 762 (Jason Marquis stayed in the rotation all season despite a 6.02 ERA). That team won the NL Central with just 83 wins and then the World Series. The 1999-00 Diamondbacks had a big drop in offense; Matt Williams and Jay Bell combined for 73 home runs and 254 RBIs in '99, 30 and 115 in 2000.

Anyway, the bottom line: This is how good Halladay, Lee and Hamels are. This Phillies can lose Utley and Howard for half the season and still rate as the favorites in the NL East.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

Some more good stuff from around the SweetSpot network ...

• Ben Duronio examines Craig Kimbrel's breaking ball. Some label the pitch a slider or slurve, but Kimbrel refers to it as a curveball. Here's all that matters: It's a devastating pitch.
• Value Over Replacement Grit has an in-depth look at the "Three True Outcomes" concept (a batter either hitting a home run, drawing a walk or striking out) and applies it to entire teams. Which teams in history have best emulated a TTO attitude?
• Chip Buck of Fire Brand compares the AL East rotations.
• Alex Gordon may be close to signing a one-year deal with the Royals. Craig Brown of Royals Authority has a reaction and breaks down what a potential long-term deal could look like.
• Camden Depot's Jon Shepherd examines what Manny Ramirez could potentially bring if the Orioles sign him.
• Marlins reliever Steve Cishek flew under the radar as a rookie but posted impressive numbers. Jonathan Mitchell at Marlins Daily asks whether Cishek should be considered for a high-leverage role in the Marlins' bullpen.
• At Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman reviews the Johan Santana trade between the Mets and Twins. With that article in mind, Bill Baer looks back the deals that brought the Phillies Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.
• Considering what the Brewers traded to get Zack Greinke -- compared to what the Reds gave up for Mat Latos and the Cubs to acquire Matt Garza -- that deal is looking like a steal for Milwaukee, writes Jack Moore.
• Joey Matschulat opines on Elvis Andrus' three-year extension with the Rangers.
• Chris Quick looks at some of the PECOTA projections for the Giants. (PECOTA is the projection system used by Baseball Prospectus.) What about new outfielder Melky Cabrera? Well ... let's just say the Giants may still struggle to score runs.
• Yes, Cubs fans, you have reasons to be optimistic!
• For my fellow Mariners fans, Brendan Gawlowski has a good look at the Mariners' non-roster invites.

And a few more links from elsewhere ...

• John Sickels of Minor League Ball with a fun look at the top 30 position players in baseball and how they were viewed as prospects. Here does the same thing for the top 25 pitchers.
• ESPNBoston kicks off its "10 Question in 10 Days" series heading into spring training with Gordon Edes' look at Bobby Valentine.
• ESPNNewYork has a similar series with the Yankees and Andrew Marchand writes that Johnny Damon is the right fit for the Yankees' DH slot.
• Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas is going position-by-position with the Rangers and looks at Yu Darvish.
• Mark Saxon says that Vernon Wells -- and not Mike Trout -- will be the Angels' left fielder.
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs lists his top 10 moves of the offseason ... and his 10 worst.
• Mentioned briefly above, Baseball Prospectus has reintroduced PECOTA, its player projection system. Colin Wyers has the details here.
• George Brett's company is being sued. Wait ... you mean those necklaces don't actually improve athletic performance?

On the same day 82-year-old Detroit Tigers owner Mike Ilitch decided to go all-in on Prince Fielder and a World Series title chase, the San Francisco Giants showed some fiscal responsibility by reportedly agreeing with two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum on a two-year, $40.5 million contract. The deal means the two sides will avoid going to arbitration this year and next, his final season before hitting free agency.

This is absolutely the correct approach in handling Lincecum. There is no need to negotiate a long-term deal with a pitcher two years before he's a free agent. Pitchers are risky creatures as is, so why take the risk before you have to? This gives you two more seasons to chase your own World Series title with Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain (if the Giants sign him past 2012).

There seems to be a mindset that teams need to "get something" for a player if they might not be able to sign him to a long-term deal when he becomes a free agent. But why does this make sense if you have a chance to win? The Brewers could have traded Fielder before last season, knowing he was unlikely to stay in Milwaukee, but instead went for it and actually strengthened the club instead by acquiring Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. They made the playoffs and gave themselves a shot at the World Series. It was the right call. The Tampa Bay Rays are taking a similar approach this season with B.J. Upton.

Compare that to the Minnesota Twins with Johan Santana in 2008. They traded Santana for a package of prospects that didn't turn out, but the biggest problem with that trade is that the Twins ended up missing the playoffs when they lost a tiebreaker game to the White Sox. With Santana, they win the division. And once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen; who knows, the Twins may have won the World Series with Santana.

I did a chat earlier on Tuesday in which somebody suggested since the Phillies might not be able to afford Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels in 2013 (Hamels will be a free agent) that maybe they should look to trade one of the three. What? Of course not. You go for it in 2012 behind those guys and if you lose Hamels, so be it.

Next season, you'll certainly hear cries that the Giants should look to trade Lincecum. Get something for him while you can. Or you can try and win another World Series title.

The Giants may decide that Lincecum won't be worth that $100 million investment in the future. Maybe they'll try to sign him and he'll bolt, like Jose Reyes with the Mets. But there's nothing wrong with trying to win now.

Especially when you don't have to spend $214 million to do it.

This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

As you can see from the voting results of our SweetSpot bloggers, the NL Cy Young race should be a heated battle (voting based on seven points for first, four for second, three for third):

Roy Halladay, Phillies: 139 points (13 first-place votes)
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: 134 points (12)
Cliff Lee, Phillies: 74 points
Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks: 3 points

You can slice and dice the numbers a lot of different ways. Tim Kurkjian and Christina Kahrl debate the merits of each pitcher here. The perception that Halladay faced much tougher competition is true -- but barely. If you count up the 32 opponents Halladay started against, they averaged 4.16 runs per game; if you count the 33 opponents Kershaw started against (including the Giants six times), they averaged 4.11 runs per game. Overall, Halladay allowed 65 runs in 32 starts; Kershaw allowed 66 runs in 33 starts. Halladay was more consistent (only two starts allowing more than four runs versus four for Kershaw), while Kershaw was more dominant (17 starts allowing zero runs or one versus 13 for Halladay). Halladay pitched in a slightly tougher home park and had a 2.23 road ERA (but his NL East rivals all play in good pitchers' parks), while Kershaw had a 2.79 road ERA (he gets San Diego and San Francisco in the division, but also Arizona and Colorado).

Of course, Kershaw won the pitching Triple Crown, leading the NL in wins, strikeouts and ERA. Of the 12 previous pitchers to win the Triple Crown during the Cy Young era (including Justin Verlander this year), all 12 won the Cy Young Award.

Which tells you how great Halladay was: Just as great as a guy who won the Triple Crown. In the end, I predict Kershaw wins the award, but it's too bad they can't cut it in two.

(For the record, my unofficial ballot: Kershaw, Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels, Kennedy.)

Trade Joey Votto now, the theory goes. The Cincinnati Reds have him for two seasons until he becomes a free agent. He's one of the best players in the game. As a small-market franchise, the Reds will be unlikely to afford him when he hits the market. His trade value only drops if the Reds hold on to him for another season or if they look to deal him at the trade deadline in 2013. So trade him now, when his value is high. Get a slew of cheap, young prospects for him.

On one level, it makes sense. When the Texas Rangers traded Mark Teixeira to the Atlanta Braves in 2007 -- with Teixiera still more than a year from free agency -- it was a deal that helped rebuild the franchise, as Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison became key contributors on two World Series teams.

Unfortunately, that deal is the exception rather than the rule (see the list below of superstars traded in recent years with at least one full season until they hit free agency). Here's the thing: Superstars are unbelievably hard to come by; you need them to win pennants and World Series titles; the goal of every team should be to acquire a superstar, not trade one away. In dealing for prospects, you are assuming all the risk (at least in talent acquisition; you do get an immediate financial savings, of course). Trading for prospects might seem like a good investment, but you are often instead left with a bunch of subprime players.

The Reds had a disappointing season in 2011, but they still have the same talent core that won the NL Central in 2010. Yes, they could use a starting pitcher and maybe Votto would bring one in return. But is Yonder Alonso really ready to fill Votto's shoes? Or was his .330/.398/.545 line in 98 plate appearances a fluke? The Reds' best chanc of winning in 2012 -- and I do believe they have a chance -- isn't trading Votto, but hoping for improvement from their starting rotation. The Reds don't need more young players -- they have Jay Bruce and Alonso and Aroldis Chapman and Devin Mesoraco and Drew Stubbs and Yasmani Grandal in the minors. Trading Votto for a pitcher isn't going to help if Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez and Mike Leake don't improve anyway.

Plus, there's this scenario: If the goal is to trade Votto and hope you get lucky that one of the prospects develops into a star, wouldn't the Reds just end up facing the same scenario? The odds that you acquire three prospects, each of whom develops into a good player before he starts making big money, is extremely slim. Among other reasons, if those prospects were sure things, they wouldn't be getting traded.

So if I'm the Reds, I keep Votto. I do what the Brewers did in 2011 with Prince Fielder and the Rays in 2010 with Carl Crawford. Those clubs kept their impending free agents and won division titles. You need stars to win pennants. Joey Votto is the Reds' star.

* * * *

Here are some of those superstar deals and why I consider trading Votto for prospects a risk for the Reds.

Adrian Gonzalez (Padres to Red Sox) -- Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly, Reymond Fuentes. Rizzo hit .331 with 26 home runs in 93 games in Triple-A, but just .141 in 49 big league games. He's just 22, so he has time. Kelly was actually the top prospect in the deal, but he's yet to harness is good stuff into productive results, posting a 3.98 ERA in Double-A with mediocre pheriphals. Fuentes is a speedy center fielder who hit .275 without power in Class A. The Padres' payroll actually increased in 2011 and their attendance actually remained steady compared to 2010 -- but it's down over 600,000 from 2007.

Zack Greinke (Brewers to Royals) -- Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffries, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi (plus the subtraction of Yuniesky Betancourt). Again, too soon to evaluate. If Escobar moves beyond a good-field, no-hit shortstop and Cain develops into the team's starting center fielder, it could be a decent return for the Royals.

Cliff Lee (Phillies to Mariners) -- Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, J.C. Ramirez. None have reached the majors, although Aumount has closer potential. (And the Mariners later traded Lee to the Rangers, they helped a division rival reach its first World Series. Even though Lee didn't stay with Texas, that initial World Series trip helps bring in more fans, which adds more revenue long-term, and makes the Rangers more attractive for free agents. Why help a division rival? And Justin Smoak -- .227 career average -- has been so unimpressive, some think the Mariners should go after Votto this offseason.)

Roy Halladay (Blue Jays to Phillies) -- Kyle Drabek, Travis d'Arnaud, Michael Taylor. This one might yet work out for the Jays. Drabek was the top prospect in the deal, and while it's too early to write him off, he was terrible as a rookie (6.06 ERA) and even worse in Triple-A (7.44). But d'Arnaud is a promising catching prospect who hit .311/.371/.542 at Double-A and the Jays eventually turned Taylor into the talented, toolsy Anthony Gose (16 home runs, 70 steals in Double-A, but 154 strikeouts).

Cliff Lee (Indians to Phillies) -- Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Jason Donald, Lou Marson. The Indians traded Lee with one and a half years before he hit free agency. They don't have much to show yet, although maybe Carrasco will develop beyond a No. 5 starter.

Matt Holliday (Rockies to A's) -- Huston Street, Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith. The Rockies traded Holliday to the A's after the 2008 season. They even won the wild card in 2009, but slipped back to 73 wins in 2011. Holliday eventually signed a seven-year, $120 million contract with the Cardinals through 2016. The Rockies signed Gonzalez to a seven-year, $80 million extension from 2011 through 2017, and also paid Street $19 million from 2009 to 2011, and owe him $7.5 million in 2012 plus a $9 million player option for 2013.

So, did this trade work out for the Rockies? The tally so far, from 2009 through 2011:

Holliday: 15.2 WAR (Baseball-Reference), $56.1 million in salary
Gonzalez/Street: 12.6 WAR, $24.2 million in salary (and signing bonus), one playoff season

FanGraphs estimates that one extra win on the free-agent market is currently worth about $4.5 million, so in theory the A's/Cardinals have overpaid by $20.2 million for their addition 2.6 wins of estimated value in comparison to Gonzalez/Street.

Future commitments:

Holliday: Five seasons, $86 million (assuming team doesn't pick up 2017 option)
Gonzalez/Street: Eight seasons, $93.5 million (assuming Street picks up 2013 option)

So far, the Rockies have saved about $32 million in payroll with a slight decrease in overall value. Long-term, they'll spend a little more money but spread out over more seasons. The question is if Gonzalez is the star player of 2010 or merely the solid starter of 2011. At worst, the deal is probably a wash as Holliday should decline as he ages, and a potential huge plus for the Rockies if CarGo has more years like 2010.

Johan Santana (Twins to Mets) -- Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey. A disaster for the Twins. They missed the playoffs by one game in 2008 (losing a tie-breaker playoff to the White Sox). Who knows, if they'd kept Santana they might have won the World Series.

Miguel Cabrera (Marlins to Tigers) -- Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo, Dallas Trahern. The Marlins have made some good deals but this was not one of them. (Dontrelle Willis was also traded to Detroit in the deal, although that was the best part of the trade for Florida.)

Mark Teixeira (Rangers to Braves) -- Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Beau Jones. The granddaddy that all small-market teams hope to emulate. I think it's important to note that the Rangers were in a different state in 2007 than the Reds are now -- they were on their way to an 87-loss season when Teixeira was traded, with their rotation compiling a depressing 5.50 ERA. As much as this trade helped -- especially with Harrison's emergence in 2011 -- it was the rebuilding of the rotation that turned the Rangers into a World Series team.