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When is Opening Day not really Opening Day? And why is a baseball game that counts pushed to the back burner by a bigger story on this fine Wednesday? Keith Law and I (with help) explain on Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. Excellent ESPN The Magazine writer Molly Knight joins us to discuss the stunning $2 billion deal involving the Los Angeles Dodgers. Molly tells us why Dodgers fans should be very pleased.

2. Meanwhile, the Mariners and Athletics played a baseball game that will be reflected in the relevant standings, but not many people saw it. Well, I did! Keith tells us what to expect from Dustin Ackley.

3. What can Mariano Rivera do this season to break his personal best in Wins Above Replacement? Well, he can’t do it. Not in 60 innings. We relate this to the Braves' bullpen.

4. Keith tells us what’s new with Royals pitching prospect Noel Arguelles, and explains the luxury tax system.

5. What’s the difference in "power" and "raw power"? An emailer asks and our scout answers.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s fun-filled Baseball Today podcast, and then follow the gang on Twitter (@karabellespn, @keithlaw, @therealpodvader)!

With the way 2011 ended for the Atlanta Braves, many hoped a good start in spring training would put any thoughts about last season behind them. At the start of camp, however, Tommy Hanson crashed his car and received a concussion. That was certainly not a good omen, to say the least.

Then Tyler Pastornicky, the expected starting shortstop, started 3-for-33, sparking questions about whether he or last season’s Lynchburg Hillcat (Atlanta's high-A affiliate) shortstop Andrelton Simmons should start at shortstop. A week ago, Chipper Jones stated in jest that he was unsure if he could even finish the season, and then Thursday announced that he'll retire at the end of the season. Additionally, the team is 6-13 in the Grapefruit League, ahead of only the Mets. Spring training records do not mean much, if anything, but the Braves have most certainly not played quality baseball.

On Tuesday, the worst news of the spring hit the Braves as Arodys Vizcaino, the 14th-ranked prospect in baseball according to Keith Law, will miss the entire season with Tommy John surgery. Vizcaino was projected to pitch in the Braves’ bullpen and was expected to help ease the workload of the team’s back-end relievers.

Not much has gone right, but there are still reasons to be optimistic. With Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy ready to break out and Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado not far behind them, the Braves still have a strong core of young starting pitchers who are major league ready. With Tim Hudson already being ruled out until the start of May and Hanson and Jair Jurrjens attempting to rebound from last year’s season-ending injuries, the depth in the rotation is the team’s biggest strength and should come in handy over the course of the season.

Although Vizcaino will miss the year, swingman Kris Medlen should bolster what was already one of the game’s top bullpens. His ability to eat innings, along with fellow bullpen mate Cristhian Martinez, should lessen the workload on Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty. The bullpen should again be stellar.

While the pitching should remain sturdy, the big questions in Braves camp revolve around the bats. Jason Heyward and Martin Prado had sub-standard years and will look to rebound, while Brian McCann and Dan Uggla try to stay consistent throughout the season. Heyward has altered both his swing and stance, and he has really started to swing the bat well over the past two weeks. Prado and Uggla have both looked tremendous all spring.

The basic assumption the front office has made, judging by their lack of acquisitions, is that they doubt things go as bad for the offense in 2012 as they did last year. Having Michael Bourn in center field for the entire season should stabilize the top of the lineup and result in improved production compared to what the Braves received from Nate McLouth, Jordan Schafer and Bourn during his few months with the team.

With all that went bad toward the end of last year, this team still won 89 games and would have made the playoffs if this season’s playoff format had been in place. They have a ton of pitching depth and have one of the best bullpens in the league. While they do not have a tremendous offense and will likely struggle with their infield defense, they do have the tools to score runs and prevent runs at a better than average rate. As bad as this spring has been, the Braves are still one of the better teams in the National League and should certainly be in competition for a playoff spot, which is all you can really ask for in a crowded NL East.

Ben Duronio writes regularly about the Braves at Capitol Avenue Club. You can follow him on Twitter @Ben_Duronio.

Some more good stuff from around the SweetSpot network ...

• Ben Duronio examines Craig Kimbrel's breaking ball. Some label the pitch a slider or slurve, but Kimbrel refers to it as a curveball. Here's all that matters: It's a devastating pitch.
• Value Over Replacement Grit has an in-depth look at the "Three True Outcomes" concept (a batter either hitting a home run, drawing a walk or striking out) and applies it to entire teams. Which teams in history have best emulated a TTO attitude?
• Chip Buck of Fire Brand compares the AL East rotations.
• Alex Gordon may be close to signing a one-year deal with the Royals. Craig Brown of Royals Authority has a reaction and breaks down what a potential long-term deal could look like.
• Camden Depot's Jon Shepherd examines what Manny Ramirez could potentially bring if the Orioles sign him.
• Marlins reliever Steve Cishek flew under the radar as a rookie but posted impressive numbers. Jonathan Mitchell at Marlins Daily asks whether Cishek should be considered for a high-leverage role in the Marlins' bullpen.
• At Baseball Prospectus, Aaron Gleeman reviews the Johan Santana trade between the Mets and Twins. With that article in mind, Bill Baer looks back the deals that brought the Phillies Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt.
• Considering what the Brewers traded to get Zack Greinke -- compared to what the Reds gave up for Mat Latos and the Cubs to acquire Matt Garza -- that deal is looking like a steal for Milwaukee, writes Jack Moore.
• Joey Matschulat opines on Elvis Andrus' three-year extension with the Rangers.
• Chris Quick looks at some of the PECOTA projections for the Giants. (PECOTA is the projection system used by Baseball Prospectus.) What about new outfielder Melky Cabrera? Well ... let's just say the Giants may still struggle to score runs.
• Yes, Cubs fans, you have reasons to be optimistic!
• For my fellow Mariners fans, Brendan Gawlowski has a good look at the Mariners' non-roster invites.

And a few more links from elsewhere ...

• John Sickels of Minor League Ball with a fun look at the top 30 position players in baseball and how they were viewed as prospects. Here does the same thing for the top 25 pitchers.
• ESPNBoston kicks off its "10 Question in 10 Days" series heading into spring training with Gordon Edes' look at Bobby Valentine.
• ESPNNewYork has a similar series with the Yankees and Andrew Marchand writes that Johnny Damon is the right fit for the Yankees' DH slot.
• Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas is going position-by-position with the Rangers and looks at Yu Darvish.
• Mark Saxon says that Vernon Wells -- and not Mike Trout -- will be the Angels' left fielder.
• Dave Cameron of FanGraphs lists his top 10 moves of the offseason ... and his 10 worst.
• Mentioned briefly above, Baseball Prospectus has reintroduced PECOTA, its player projection system. Colin Wyers has the details here.
• George Brett's company is being sued. Wait ... you mean those necklaces don't actually improve athletic performance?

This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

The American League rookie crop has a chance to be one of the deepest, most exciting groups of rookies one league has produced in a long time (although the 2010 NL group with Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, Starlin Castro and Jaime Garcia was an excellent one as well).

On the hitting side, Dustin Ackley, Eric Hosmer, Desmond Jennings and Brett Lawrie all have All-Star potential, and guys like Mark Trumbo, Jemile Weeks, Jason Kipnis, Mike Moustakas, Lonnie Chisenhall, J.P. Arencibia and Salvador Perez aren't far behind or showcased plenty of potential. Pitchers included Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, Zach Britton and Jordan Walden. Those lists don't even include prospect studs Mike Trout and Jesus Montero, who will both remain rookies next season.

It makes for a crowded rookie race, especially since several of the hitters excelled after in-season promotions, which limited their overall numbers. Here are the voting results from the SweetSpot network (based on the same structure as the real voting: five points for first, three for second and one for third):

1. Michael Pineda, Mariners: 77 points (13 first-place votes)
2. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: 51 points (6)
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals: 25 points (3)
4. Dustin Ackley, Mariners: 23 points (1)
5. Ivan Nova, Yankees: 11 points
(tie) Mark Trumbo, Angels: 11 points (1)
7. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: 8 points
8. Desmond Jennings, Rays: 5 points
9. Zach Britton, Orioles: 1 point

In our vote, it was essentially a two-player race; I suspect that in the actual vote, Nova will receive much more support. Let's start by looking at the three starting pitchers, all three of whom were regulars in their team's rotations most of the season.

Hellickson: 13-10, 2.95 ERA, 189 IP, 146 H, 117 SO, 72 BB, 21 HR, 1.15 WHIP
Pineda: 9-10, 3.74 ERA, 171 IP, 133 H, 173 SO, 55 BB, 18 HR, 1.10 WHIP
Nova: 16-4, 3.70 ERA, 165.1 IP, 163 H, 98 SO, 57 BB, 13 HR, 1.33 WHIP

Despite that glossy record, I think it’s pretty easy to dismiss Nova. He doesn’t have Hellickson’s ERA or Pineda’s peripherals; he pitched 24 fewer innings than Hellickson; he pitched in the AL East, but so did Hellickson. (We can ignore win-loss record, right? We all learned that last year when Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award, correct?) As important as Nova was to the Yankees, I think he's pretty clearly No. 3 here.

So let’s compare Hellickson and Pineda.

Baseball-Reference WAR
Hellickson: 4.2
Nova: 3.6
Lawrie 2.8
Pineda 2.8
Ackley 2.5
Jennings 2.3
Trumbo 2.1
Hosmer 1.3

FanGraphs WAR
Pineda: 3.4
Lawrie: 2.7
Ackley: 2.7
Nova: 2.7
Jennings: 2.4
Trumbo: 2.3
Hosmer: 1.6
Hellickson: 1.4

Hellickson's season was an anomaly in one important regard: He allowed just 7.0 hits per nine innings while striking out 5.6 batters per nine. How odd is that combo? Since 2000, only six other pitchers have thrown at least 150 innings while allowing 7.5 hits or less per nine innings and fewer than six strikeouts per nine. The others: Johnny Cueto (2011), Tim Hudson (2010), Trevor Cahill (2010), Barry Zito (2003), Derek Lowe (2002) and Damian Moss (2002).

Hellickson succeeded because his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .223, the lowest among major league starters. That explains the difference in his WAR total between the two sites. FanGraphs' WAR is based upon FIP (fielding independent pitching), which attempts to remove defensive support from a pitcher’s performance and assesses "a pitcher's talent level by looking at things a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs."

So while Hellickson's ERA was 2.95, FIP looks at his mediocre 117-72 strikeout/walk ratio and 21 home runs allowed and projects a 4.44 run average. Pineda, meanwhile, had a 173/55 strikeout/walk ratio and 18 home runs allowed, and his FIP comes in at 3.42 -- lower than his actual ERA.

Basically, FIP regards Hellickson as being hit lucky; indeed, if you were projecting which pitcher will have the lower ERA next season, Pineda is the obvious choice (assuming Hellickson doesn't ramp up his strikeout rate). As a projection system, FIP is much better than simply looking at ERA.

But when evaluating a current season, do you simply dismiss Hellickson’s results and say he wasn't that good? Personally, I think that’s a big leap. Hellickson’s run prevention may have involved a degree of luck -- it’s worth pointing out that Pineda also allowed a low .258 BABIP, ninth-lowest among MLB starters (both were also extreme flyball pitchers, which can lower a pitcher's BABIP) -- but he did allow a 2.95 ERA over 29 starts, pitching in the tough AL East. He made eight starts against the Red Sox and Yankees (3-2, 3.73 ERA in 48.1 innings). Pineda only had to make one start each against the Red Sox and Yankees. Yes, Hellickson benefited from him his home park and an excellent Tampa Bay defense; but Pineda also benefited from a pitcher-friendly home park and good defense.

Hellickson had a left-on-base percentage of 82 percent -- second-best in the majors behind Jered Weaver’s 82.6 percent. He allowed a .167 average with runners in scoring position, with just three home runs in 144 at-bats. Again, there is some good fortune involved here -- a .167 average allowed is not a repeatable skill -- but it did happen. It was a real result that helped the Rays win games and I can’t so easily dismiss what happened on the field.

In some aspects, while last year's AL Cy Young debate was billed as the battle of new numbers (win-loss record for pitchers is overrated), it wasn't really the battle of new numbers: King Felix excelled in all the other conventional statistics like ERA, strikeouts and innings pitched. To deny Hellickson the rookie award would be the real shout-out to sabermetrics, ignoring his ERA and attributing his numbers completely to luck and defense. I don't think that will happen in the real vote; in fact, I'll be surprised if Pineda finishes in the top three, since -- let's face it -- win-loss record still means something to a lot of voters.

I’m a Mariners fan. I watched Pineda pitch 10-12 times this season and he and Ackley provided two bright hopes in a miserable season. If he stays healthy, the big right-hander is going to be a Cy Young contender in the future. But I put Hellickson No. 1. As for the rest of my ballot, Lawrie and Jennings were great in short stints (Lawrie's WAR includes a positive rating for his defense, which goes against the scouting reports as he came up through the minors), Ackley in a little longer stint, Hosmer over 128 games. Both B-R and FanGraphs hate Hosmer’s defense (going against the general scouting reviews of his glovework), and thus affecting his WAR rating. Trumbo’s 29 home runs and 87 RBIs led all rookies, but that .291 on-base percentage is damaging. Trumbo had some big hits for the Angels, but I can't put a guy with a .291 OBP in the top three.

My ballot
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Michael Pineda
3. Eric Hosmer

Predicted results
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Ivan Nova
3. Mark Trumbo

* * * *

In the National League, Braves closer Craig Kimbrel is expected to cruise to the award after leading the NL with 46 saves, posting a 2.10 ERA and striking out 127 batters in 77 innings, the sixth-highest strikeout rate ever with at least 50 innings pitched. (By the way, fellow rookie Kenley Jansen had the best rate ever, with 16.10 per nine innings.)

Here is the SweetSpot network voting results:

1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves: 108 points (18 first-place votes)
2. Freddie Freeman, Braves: 35 points (3)
3. Danny Espinosa, Nationals: 26 points (3)
4. Vance Worley, Phillies: 16 points
5. Brandon Beachy, Braves: 14 points
6. Wilson Ramos, Nationals: 13 points
7. Kenley Jansen, Dodgers: 2 points
8. Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks: 1 point
(tie) Lucas Duda, Mets: 1 point

I suspect the actual voting results will follow a similar pattern, with Kimbrel possibly emerging as the unanimous winner. Espinosa flew under the radar all season, but hit for power (21 home runs) and played a very good second base. Like Hosmer, Freeman’s glovework doesn’t rate well by the fielding metrics. Overall, Espinosa's package of power and defense at a premium position makes him more valuable than Freeman. Worley and Beachy were terrific in partial seasons and Ramos gave the Nationals a second foundation piece for the future.

My ballot
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Danny Espinosa
3. Freddie Freeman

Predicted results
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Danny Espinosa

Well, I kind of wish we had taped the Thursday edition of the Baseball Today podcast around midnight ET, when the Tampa Bay Rays won and the Boston Red Sox lost and baseball was never the same. Still a terrific, lively show though with me and Keith Law, with among the topics ...

1. Guest Jim Bowden has strong thoughts about the Red Sox and what they do moving forward, justifying the Braves’ loss and also discussing why the Ozzie Guillen experiment in Miami doesn’t excite him.

2. KLaw and I reminisce about the greatest night in regular season baseball history, arguing with a naysayer that likes football more. Will we remember the Red Sox losing or Dan Johnson?

3. Don’t give the Braves a pass for their collapse, either. We talk Chris Carpenter, Brett Myers, Craig Kimbrel and how the NL wild card was decided.

4. Jose Reyes wins the batting title, but the way he went about it leaves us a bit unsatisfied.

5. We answer a few email questions and then Keith gives his predictions for the first round of the playoffs. Mine are coming on Friday!

So download and listen to a fun Baseball Today podcast for Thursday. Hey, you gotta love baseball. It is awesome.

Ah, the sweet sounds of the cat noises returned for Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law and me tried to put the races and your emails into context. Among the topics were:

1.Why is John Lackey still starting games for the Red Sox? Is it the money? Or is there nobody else? The Red Sox overcame this in the second game of Monday’s doubleheader, and now the onus is on the Rays.

2. Meanwhile, Craig Kimbrel is human! The Cardinals top Philly again -- as Tony La Russa does some of his best work -- and the NL wild-card race is alive. The Braves and Red Sox, partners in rotation woes.

3. Kudos to Mo Rivera. We discuss how the best reliever ever is aging, as well as bigger picture relief stuff reminiscing about the old days.

4. If this is it for Kerry Wood, some of the memories will certainly be positive ones.

5. Did Dice-K ruin it for future Japanese pitchers coming to the U.S.? I admit I was surprised where this conversation went.

Plus: Excellent emails, poor Brian Matusz, the awesome Ian Kennedy, being a Rays minor leaguer and much more on a packed, but fun, Tuesday edition of Baseball Today! Download now and get those questions in for Wednesday at baseballtoday@espnradio.com!

We went off the field for much of the talk on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law, producer Jay Soderberg and yours truly discussed some interesting topics, including:

1. Nice job by a few Milwaukee Brewers in focusing not on their on-field struggles of late, but on their futures. Good timing! (Sarcasm reigns.)

2. Clayton Kershaw gets an early exit in Wednesday’s game, but he had a good reason. Or did he?

3. Tampa Bay lost an opportunity to get closer to the Red Sox, as Matt Moore and Matt Wieters was a one-sided matchup. If the Rays don’t win Thursday’s game, what does that mean?

4. More about the "Moneyball" movie -- and the book -- as KLaw discusses both and defends himself from a very interesting personal attack.

5. A Pod Trooper -- don’t ask -- delivers a memorable email, and we also answer questions about manufactured home-field advantage and the save stat. Again.

Tune in Thursday for a terrific edition of the Baseball Today podcast ...

Heading into the weekend, Atlanta Braves rookie closer Craig Kimbrel has 43 saves, a 1.55 ERA and a WHIP of 0.96. Only 22 closers have posted similar number: 40 or more saves, an ERA under 2.00 and a WHIP under 1.00.

How does Kimbrel's season compare to those other 22? Let's have fun with a little exercise. I'm going to rank all 23 of those closers -- -- plus Francisco Rodriguez's 2008 in which he set the record with 62 saves and Brad Lidge's 2008 season when he didn't blow a save -- in various categories: saves, save percentage, ERA, WHIP, strikeout per nine, opponents' OPS allowed and innings pitched.

If you rank first in a category, you get one point; if you rank 25th, you get 25 points. The pitcher with the fewest points wins the tally. By the way, all but one of these seasons have happened since 1990, aka the modern era for closers. Dan Quisenberry's 1983 season with the Royals is the lone exception. I would suggest that by no means should these be considered the greatest relief seasons of all time. I used the 40 saves/2.00 ERA/1.00 WHIP as an arbitrary cutoff point for statistical dominance; before 1990, it was difficult for closers to either (A) rack up as many saves, often because they pitched more innings and entered more tie games; or (B) dominate on the same statistical level since they did pitch so many more innings.

Anyway, here's the final tally:

1. Eric Gagne, 2003 Dodgers: 14 points
2. Dennis Eckersley, 1990 A's: 41 points
3. Trevor Hoffman, 1998 Padres: 46 points
4. J.J. Putz, 1997 Mariners: 63 points
5. Eric Gagne, 2002 Dodgers: 70 points
6. Armando Benitez, 2004 Marlins: 73 points
7. Bryan Harvey, 1991 Angels: 81 points
7. Billy Wagner, 2003 Astros: 81 points
9. Bryan Harvey, 1993 Marlins: 82 points
10. Mariano Rivera, 2005 Yankees: 83 points
11. Craig Kimbrel, 2011 Braves: 87 points
12. Robb Nen, 2000 Giants: 88 points
12. Dennis Eckersley, 1992 A's: 88 points
14. John Smoltz, 2003 Braves: 90 points
15. Robb Nen, 1998 Giants: 91 points
16. Joe Nathan, 2004 Twins: 97 points
17. Rafael Soriano, 2010 Rays: 98 points
18. Joakim Soria, 2008 Royals: 105 points
19. Mariano Rivera, 1999 Yankees: 109 points
20. Mariano Rivera, 2009 Yankees: 110 points
21. Brad Lidge, 2008 Phillies: 114 points
22. Dan Quisenberry, 1983 Royals: 124 points
23. Chad Cordero, 2005 Nationals: 125 points
24. Francisco Rodriguez, 2008 Angels: 127 points
25. Mike Jackson, 1998 Indians: 132 points

It's no surprise that Gagne's 2003 ranks No. 1 -- by a landslide. He was 55-for-55 in save opportunities, had a 1.20 ERA and his 14.98 K's per nine is the only figure that tops Kimbrel's mark of 14.86.

It's fun to see some of the forgotten great closer seasons like J.J. Putz with the Mariners in 2007 -- 40-for-42 in saves, 1.38 ERA, .454 OPS allowed; or Armando Benitez with the 2004 Marlins or Bryan Harvey, who appears twice on the list. Also noted is that Francisco Rodriguez's 2008 season with 62 saves wasn't really all that impressive other than the raw saves total: He blew six save chances, had a 1.28 WHIP, allowed a .630 OPS and pitched just 68.1 innings.

As for Kimbrel, he could move higher on the list since he still has a few weeks left to rack up more saves and more innings. What's most interesting is while he ranked 21st in WHIP, he ranks fourth in OPS since he's allowed just one home run and only four doubles. What's been quite a season for the rookie and deserves recognition as one of the best closer seasons we've seen.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

A fine week of Baseball Today podcasts was closed with Friday's show as Mark Simon and I waxed poetic about myriad pertinent topics, including:

1. What did we learn about the recent Yankees-Red Sox series, other than you shouldn’t make dinner plans following the game? We discuss a potential playoff matchup, and also tell the truth about Curtis Granderson’s defensive prowess.

2. Ownership issues with the Mets and Dodgers just don’t seem to go away, but we have a very interesting -- shocking, actually! -- opinion from our resident Mets fan.

3. Justin Verlander’s Cy Young -- an MVP -- candidacy might depend on how many wins he ends up with. Simon delves into some of the historic aspects of his season, as well as a look at the Phillies' aces.

4. Awesome emails this week as we talk more movies, future franchise value, soft tossing to first base and whether we would take jobs being the GM for our favorite team’s rivals. Hard to believe the reaction there.

5. It’s a huge weekend -- perhaps the final relevant one -- for a few teams and we discuss where the Giants and White Sox fit in.

Plus: Excellent emails, a very dedicated Rockies fan, BABIP in the Little League World Series, Jordan Walden versus Craig Kimbrel and a whole lot more on a packed Friday Baseball Today podcast. Download now, have a great weekend and we’ll be back Tuesday!

OK, with 42 saves, a 1.62 ERA, and one of the highest strikeout rates of all time for a relief pitcher, Craig Kimbrel will win the NL Rookie of the Year Award, perhaps in unanimous fashion. Kimbrel hasn't been perfect -- he's blown five saves -- but he has dominated opponents and has a good chance to become the 12th pitcher to record 50 saves in a season.

But I've been more impressed with Phillies rookie right-hander Vance Worley, who won again on Thursday to push his record to 10-1 with a 2.85 ERA. Here's a fun statistic courtesy of Elias: The Phillies have won 13 consecutive Worley starts, the third-highest total in the NL in the past 15 years (the Cardinals won 17 straight Chris Carpenter starts in 2005 and the Braves won 15 straight John Smoltz starts in 1996).

That ERA is no accident, as Worley has struck out 7.8 batters per nine innings with a nifty strikeout-to-walk ratio of 90-to-33. The big surprise is that Worley has developed into a good strikeout pitcher despite a mediocre fastball that averages 90 mph. It was that lack of a big heater that had Baseball America rank Worley as just the 11th-best prospect for the Phillies heading into the season. It made sense: Two years ago, Worley had an ERA over 5.00 in Double-A. He lost weight last season and improved, but with 119 strikeouts in 158 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he hardly had numbers that screamed future major league starter. "Worley profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter," wrote Baseball America. "With no plus pitch and his reliance on command, he may be best suited for a middle-relief role in the long term."

Injuries to Joe Blanton and then Roy Oswalt opened up a rotation slot for Worley and he took advantage. In 17 starts, he's allowed one or no runs 10 times. His somewhat jerky motion is a little deceptive, but he's pretty simple in his approach: He's thrown his fastball over 65 percent of the time, gets ahead of the hitters, paints the outside corner to left-handers and tries to get righties to chase his slider low and away. He does a great job holding runners (he's allowed just two stolen bases all season, and both of those came in one game). Maybe he's been a little lucky in his home run percentage on flyballs, but there's nothing that indicates his season is a total fluke. And it will be interesting to see who Charlie Manuel gives the ball to as his No. 4 starter in the playoffs, Worley or Oswalt.

So, yes, Kimbrel has all the saves. But Worley, who has pitched nearly 40 more innings, deserves top rookie consideration.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Things got a tad out of hand on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast with myself and Keith Law, but really, in a good and fun way. I think. Anyway, with apologies to Justin Timberlake -- don’t ask -- here were some of the topics:

1. We took a closer look at some of the interesting Wednesday games, from the Dan Haren-Felix Hernandez duel to the NL West race, Yankees-Red Sox and Ryan Braun falling down.

2. Is Conor Jackson a good fit for the Red Sox? A few more veterans were sent to contenders late Wednesday, but a certain lefty reliever for the defending AL champs could really make a difference.

3. Today on "Cinema Today" we delve into why movies don’t follow the exact facts. Hey, it bothers me! Scott Hatteberg better hit left-handed in the upcoming "Moneyball" movie.

4. Craig Kimbrel breaks the rookie save record! How awesome! But we manage to bypass that meaningless tidbit to discuss a bigger, more critical picture involving the right-hander and his pals.

5. Thursday’s schedule is highlighted by the lure of young Tigers right-hander Jacob Turner and the potential ugliness of an A.J. Burnett disaster. Why not watch each?

Plus: Excellent emails, more about the runs scored statistic, building the perfect new stadium, video in the minor leagues and a whole lot more -- with cat noises -- on a packed Baseball Today for Thursday! Check in Friday as I’m joined by Mark Simon and send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com!

Eric Karabell is on vacation this week, leaving yours truly on the Baseball Today podcast. As usual, Mark Simon was on Monday and we somehow kept the show under an hour. Hey, it was a busy weekend!

1. The Tigers swept the Indians and we talked about Austin Jackson's awesome throw on Sunday. You won't believe how rare this play was.

2. Thoughts on Jered Weaver's new deal. As long as the Angels have Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout in the outfield, Weaver should be terrific.

3. Mark has some thoughts on the AL Rookie of the Year race and disses my man Michael Pineda. But what about Ivan Nova?

4. It's Monday, so that means Power Rankings. Are the Tampa Bay Rays underrated? (Yes they are, I say!)

5. Reader email: Pitchers who dominated at home, WAR and John Lackey's bad ERA but good record.

Plus: Brian Wilson's injury, thoughts on the Cubs, Freddie Freeman's throw, Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters and previewing Monday's action. Whew.

If there is anything to be learned from last Friday’s exercise when I ranked my top 10 choices for each respective league MVPs, it was that plenty of fans just aren’t interested in non-traditional stats like Wins Above Replacement. Some just want home runs and RBIs. And that’s OK. Stats like WAR aren’t the most important thing to me, either, but certainly a basis for discussion. Perhaps defense shouldn’t count a great deal in MVP voting. Oh, and Yankees fans love their Yankees and nobody else, Red Sox fans love their Red Sox, Phillies fans ... well, you get the picture. You can’t please everyone!

This week I’m taking a deeper look at the top rookies, because I think it’s definitely fun and always a good conversation starter. For example, some people will look only at home runs for this award. Others will look at wins. I judge the rookie of the year candidates similar to the MVP leaders from a week ago: Myriad factors are relevant and essential, from traditional stats to otherwise.

In the National League, it appears to be a runaway for Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Craig Kimbrel, based on his dominance along with the fact no reliever has more saves and he’ll soon break the rookie record in the category -- Neftali Feliz of the Texas Rangers had 40 last season. Yes, Kimbrel’s teammate Freddie Freeman has had a nice season after a slow start, and in other years he would have won it all, but Kimbrel is on pace for 47 saves and a reliever-high 123 strikeouts, to go along with his 1.81 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. It’s over, people. It’s not just rookies or closers, he’s been baseball’s top relief pitcher. I just hope he doesn’t go all Marmol on us in September to make the race close.

As for the rest of the NL top 10 -- and remember, things can change -- I hadn’t realized just how poor a defender and baserunner Freeman had been. Still, he’s got the counting stats, and I can’t put a guy hitting .223 second, even if he leads all big league rookies in WAR. Danny Espinosa could be a terrific player if he hits .270, and I hope he eventually will. After that, we’re pitching heavy. I don’t think any of the NL rookie starting pitchers have distanced themselves, or even pitched enough. If Brandon Beachy could have made 30 starts, he could have been second on my list. Vance Worley will get a bit too much attention because of a flashy win-loss record. Fernando Salas has not been Kimbrel, so don’t go there. And while I find it hard to believe Darwin Barney will play this well every season, hey, give him a break. He really hasn’t been bad at all.

My choice for now: Kimbrel.
The numbers say: Kimbrel.
The voters would say: Kimbrel. Though Freeman and perhaps Worley, if he goes something like 13-3, will get (too much) support, too.

* * * *

In the American League, the race is considerably closer with a number of worthy candidates. First of all, Alexi Ogando of the Texas Rangers is not a rookie, even though his 2010 season fell short of the 50 innings minimum. Based on service-time requirement he lost rookie status. If Ogando was eligible, however, he would get my vote. Hey, no rookie hitter or pitcher -- Kimbrel included -- has a better WAR than Ogando. Alas, Seattle Mariners right-hander Michael Pineda certainly is a rookie, and he gets my vote today, despite struggling with a 6.69 ERA since July. Pineda’s ERA has spiked, but he still has more strikeouts than innings, more innings than any rookie and a cool 1.11 WHIP. Back in March I predicted Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Jeremy Hellickson would earn the award, but Pineda has been better. Plus, if I had chosen Hellickson over Pineda, not only would I have been wrong, but SweetSpot writer/editor Dave Schoenfield loves the M’s and wouldn’t talk to me for a month. Hmm, on second thought ...

I admit Mark Trumbo is an interesting case. Surely there have been other sluggers to win top rookie honors with fewer home runs. Trumbo stepped in when Kendrys Morales couldn’t play and leads the Angels in home runs and RBIs. But he doesn’t lead in on-base percentage; I can’t get past that .295 mark. Wow. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Trumbo earns the award if he hits 30 home runs. I barely ranked Toronto Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia, despite his 19 home runs and demanding position. He hasn’t been a good catcher though and the .210 batting average and .274 OBP hurt the team more than the power helps it.

By the way, the No. 2 rookie hitter in WAR according to Fangraphs.com is Mariners second baseman Dustin Ackley, a future star. Ackley hasn’t played enough yet for real award consideration, but he’s going to be very, very good. As for other random AL rookie thoughts, sorry, Ivan Nova has not been on par with Pineda, despite the 12 victories; the case for him against Hellickson, a pair of low-K right-handers, is closer. As for Jordan Walden, nobody in baseball has more blown saves. It’s been a good year otherwise, but not a great one, and again, he’s not Kimbrel in terms of the WHIP and strikeouts.

My choice for now: Pineda.
The numbers say: Pineda and Ackley lead AL rookies in WAR.
The voters would say: If Trumbo whacks 30 home runs, and Pineda barely pitches in September, the slugger will probably win it going away.

Follow Eric Karabell on Twitter @karabellespn.

On Thursday night, Mike Minor was brilliant against a Triple-A lineup, while Chipper Jones made Tim Lincecum pay for one mistake. But good luck beating the Atlanta Braves when Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel jog in from the bullpen.

They may sound like a law firm or maybe the Notre Dame backfield from 1955, but what they are is baseball’s most lethal bullpen trio. The three each pitched one inning in Thursday’s 1-0 victory over the Giants: O’Flaherty threw 15 pitches, allowed a two-out single, but otherwise cruised through the seventh; Venters threw 12 pitches and induced three easy grounders in the eighth; and Kimbrel threw 14 high-explosive laser beams in the ninth, getting a popout, Pablo Sandoval swinging and Aubrey Huff looking.

The trio’s combined numbers on 2011: 187 1/3 innings, 1.39 ERA, four home runs allowed, 73 walks, 228 strikeouts, 41 saves. Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel.

While many managers and executives prefer to put their late-inning trust in more experienced arms, the Braves entered spring training with a plan for relying on the rookie Kimbrel and second-year lefty Venters, who came out of nowhere to excel last season. In doing so, manager Fredi Gonzalez simply followed a belief system long held by Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz: Don’t be afraid to go with the youngsters -- especially those with power arms. This isn’t the franchise that’s going to pick up Arthur Rhodes and give him important innings in a pennant race.

Cox and Schuerholz learned this the hard way. The 1992 Braves had hard-throwing young guys Kent Mercker, Mike Stanton and Mark Wohlers, but the team picked up veteran closer Jeff Reardon late in the season … an end-of-the-line, fool-'em-with-offspeed-stuff Jeff Reardon, who served up a game-losing home run in the World Series to Toronto’s Ed Sprague.

After that, Cox never shied away from using a young closer. Rookie Greg McMichael saved 19 games in 1993. Wohlers, still just 25, assumed closer duties in 1995 as the team won its only World Series. When Wohlers developed the yips in 1998, rookie Kerry Ligtenberg became the closer, saving 30 games while the Braves won 106. Ligtenberg got hurt the next season so Cox turned to hard-throwing John Rocker, in his first full season. He had 38 saves and struck out 104 batters in 72 1/3 innings. True, Cox would later install John Smoltz as closer for a few seasons, but the Atlanta philosophy has always been to try to find young, power arms for the late innings.

Can the Braves’ late-game threesome carry them to a World Series title, like the Cincinnati Reds’ Nasty Boys trio of Randy Myers, Rob Dibble and Norm Charlton did in 1990? If there’s one concern that many bloggers and fans have raised, it’s the workload the three have carried. O’Flaherty is on pace for 73 innings, Kimbrel for 78 2/3 and Venters for 91 2/3. The Giants, for example, had a similar shutdown threesome last year in Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla, as they combined for a 1.97 ERA, but threw just 192 innings in the regular season -- or just five more than the Atlanta three has already thrown.

But their projected workloads aren’t that out of whack with some other recent World Series champions. The 2008 Phillies’ top three of Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin all appeared in more than 70 games and combined for 239 2/3 innings, with Madson and Durbin both topping 82. The 2004 Red Sox had closer Keith Foulke with 83 innings and set-up man Mike Timlin with 76. And the Nasty Boys? Myers pitched 86 2/3 innings, Dibble 98 and Charlton 154. (OK, Charlton started part of the season.)

If the Braves are concerned, they can take comfort in building their wild-card lead to six games over the Giants and 6 1/2 over the Cardinals. They have plenty of room to play with. Oh, and another young gun just arrived: Hard-throwing 20-year-old Arodys Vizcaino has started his major league career with 5 1/3 scoreless innings.

Just what Braves’ opponents want to see: Another Atlanta reliever throwing nasty 95-plus stuff in the late innings.

PHOTO OF THE DAY