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Mark Simon and Jayson Stark joined forces for Friday's Baseball Today podcast .

1. The Indians continue to win. Is Jayson more shocked by Cleveland's good record or Detroit's early struggles?

2. Aroldis Chapman is on his way to one of the greatest seasons ever by a reliever, but Jayson and Mark discuss Chapman's future and whether insiders think he can start.

3. Dan Haren had 14 strikeouts for the Angels but Albert Pujols homered again. Which was the bigger story?

4. Jayson explains why he doesn't believe David Wright will stay with the Mets long-term.

5. Simon Says: Favorite stat of the season, quick predictions for rest of the season and some book recommendations.

Enjoy your holiday weekend everyone! The podcast will return on Tuesday with Eric Karabell and Keith Law.

First base: Double trouble for D-backs. Justin Upton sat out Tuesday's game against the Pirates due to the thumb injury he suffered April 8. Manager Kirk Gibson said his star right fielder -- batting .212 without an RBI -- saw a hand specialist and would likely undergo an MRI. "The thumb's been bothering him," Gibson told the Arizona Republic. "He's pushed hard through it. We've taken a day to re-evaluate what's going on with his thumb." To make matters worse for Arizona, Chris Young crashed into the wall in left-center making a leaping grab and left the game with a shoulder bruise. He too will undergo an MRI. The D-backs received a lot of criticism for signing Jason Kubel in the offseason, but this is where having four outfielders is an asset, not a problem. If Young can't go, Gerardo Parra can handle center.

Second base: Gold Glovers struggling on defense. Two-time Gold Glove winner Troy Tulowitzki committed just six errors last season but he made his sixth already in 2012, letting an easy double-play go through his legs, an error that led to two unearned runs and nearly cost Jamie Moyer his "oldest pitcher to win a game" achievement. Meanwhile, two-time Gold Glover Evan Longoria booted two grounders and made a throwing error for a three-error night in Tampa's 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays (three of Jeff Niemann's five runs were unearned). While Longoria just had one of those nights, Tulo's situation appears more serious, a possible "fielding slump" that is worth keeping an eye on.

Third base: No A's for Angels. Mike Scioscia removed Dan Haren after just 85 pitches, with the Angels leading 2-1 with two runners on and two out in the seventh. Lefty Daric Barton was up for the A's so Scioscia brought in Scott Downs, who did retire Barton to escape the jam. Even though Downs' is the team's best setup guy -- a guy who has proven he can retire right-handed hitters as well as lefties -- Scioscia took him out after four pitches and brought in Kevin Jepsen, a guy considerably lower in the bullen pecking order. Two walks and two hits later it was 3-2 Oakland, and then Yoenis Cespedes made it 5-2 with a two-run single off David Carpenter. Why Jepsen? Or why remove Haren so soon if your bullpen has been taxed in recent days? LaTroy Hawkins had thrown 31 pitches on Monday so was probably unavailable. Downs had thrown 14 pitches, hardly reason to limit him to four pitches. Jason Isringhausen had thrown 21 pitches on Sunday -- but Carpenter had thrown 37. The obvious question: Why not use closer Jordan Walden ... you know, for more than three batters. He's thrown two innings all season -- one inning in a 7-1 win and one inning in a 7-3 loss. In other words, he hasn't thrown a meaningful inning all season. In the last week, the Angels' bullpen has lost two leads in the eighth inning and one in the seventh. But whatever you do, SAVE YOUR CLOSER FOR THE NINTH INNING.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

Rockies pitcher tweeting members of the Los Angeles Clippers after Jamie Moyer's win:

Shout out 2 boys from @laclippers.U witnessed history 2nite! @blakegriffin @bobbysimmons21 @mowilliams @RandyFoye Will u b able 2 dunk @ 49?

— Jeremy Guthrie (@JGuthrie46) April 18, 2012

For all the consternation and criticism dished out over the Boston Red Sox's 1-5 start, another expected American League power is off to a sluggish opening week as well: The Los Angeles Angels are 2-4 after coughing up 20 hits and an eighth-inning lead in losing 10-9 to the Minnesota Twins on Thursday.

There is one obvious difference between the two starts: The Red Sox have been outscored 38 to 22 while the Angels are even-up 30 and 30. On the other hand, the Red Sox have played the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays while the Angels have faced Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Not exactly Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz there.

Actually, based on ESPN.com's preseason predictions, maybe it's not fair to label the Red Sox an "expected power." After all, 34 of 50 voters predicted the Red Sox to miss the playoffs. Only one -- fantasy expert Matthew Berry -- picked the Red Sox to win the American League East. Meanwhile, 25 of the 50 picked the Angels to win the AL West and 46 of 50 picked them to make the playoffs.

The Angels were easily the most popular World Series pick as well, with 18 of the 50 selecting them to win it all -- 36 percent, a pretty amazing total since last time I checked there are some other pretty good teams around. Only one voter (Karl Ravech) picked the Red Sox to win the World Series.

OK, those are just predictions and as our SweetSpot network blog affiliate says, you can't predict baseball. Still, since ESPN's panel of experts did essentially declare the Angels the World Series favorite, it seems like a fair time to ask: What's wrong with the Angels and why aren't their fans ready to fire the manager, whine about overpaid left fielders and complain about the bullpen?

Well, it's Los Angeles, for one thing. No less enthusiastic, but perhaps slightly less pessimistic. Still, we can't get all crazy about the Red Sox and just ignore the Angels getting bulldozed by a mediocre Twins lineup.

True fact: In 2011, the Red Sox had a run differential of plus-138. The Angels had a run differential of just plus-34. As good as Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson are, and as good Kendrys Morales may prove to be, that's still a lot of ground for the Angels to make up.

So, in the spirit of early-season panic, here are some things that could go wrong with the Angels.

1. Jered Weaver doesn't repeat his career season.

Weaver is a terrific pitcher. He has increased his innings each season he has been in the big leagues, peaking at 235.2 last season, when he ranked fifth in the league. It's not a knock against him to say he might not be quite as stingy with the runs as in 2011. But check his basic numbers in 2010 and 2011:



In some regards, he actually pitched better in 2010, most notably in strikeout rate. His walk rate, home run rate and hit rate were all pretty similar, thus his Fielding Independent Pitching runs per nine was basically identical. So why did he allow 18 fewer runs in 2011? A couple primary reasons: 15 of his 20 home runs were solo shots as opposed to 15 of 23 in 2010; he allowed a .195 average with men on base in 2011 versus .236 in 2010. In other words, if you consider hits to be randomly distributed, they worked in his favor last season. Also note: After a hot start in 2011, his second-half ERA rose from 1.86 to 3.21 as he surrendered 15 home runs in 95.1 innings. He's off to a great start in 2012 in one regard: 17 strikeouts and just one walk. But he's allowed five runs for a 3.21 ERA. Random distribution, my friends.

2. Potential bullpen issues.

Mike Scioscia left Rich Thompson in to allow four runs in the eighth inning on Thursday, the first two on Justin Morneau's go-ahead two-run homer and then two more that proved costly when the Angels scored twice in the ninth. Now, Scioscia would have loved to have had lefty Scott Downs face Joe Mauer and Morneau, but Downs had rolled his ankle the previous inning in a collision with Denard Span. Fellow lefty Hisanori Takahashi had already been used since starter Dan Haren lasted only five innings.

But put of the reason Thompson was in there was that ancient relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen were apparently unavailable to pitch since both had thrown the night before, Hawkins for 16 pitches, Isringhausen for 10. Seems odd, since neither had pitched on Tuesday. But why not extend closer Jordan Walden for five outs? Thompson is a guy who is homer-prone, so why let him face the meat of the Twins' order? Plus, isn't it a bad sign if two-sevenths of your bullpen can't pitch two days in a row? "We're going to need to get our starters maybe over that little hump and then try to get our roles in the bullpen a little more nailed down," Scioscia said. "Our guys tried. We just couldn't shut the door when we needed it."

3. Vernon Wells.

It's early, but he's hitting .217 with no walks and five strikeouts. Stay tuned.

4. Will we get good Ervin or mediocre Ervin?

Ervin Santana had a career-low 3.38 ERA last season. He has been pretty consistent the past two seasons, but he has been plagued by minor injuries in the past, a reason his ERA rocketed up to 5.03 in 2009 and 5.76 in 2007. Just something to keep in mind.

5. Is Peter Bourjos' bat for real?

Bourjos is a supreme defender in center and he exceeded expectations last year with a .271/.327/.438 batting line. Scouts had doubts about his bat coming up through the minors and he did strike out 124 times against just 32 walks in 2011. While his .338 BABIP may be repeatable -- he is one of the fastest players in the majors, after all -- Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system projects a .261/.309/.412 line, with some regression due to a lower BABIP.

6. Mark Trumbo's defense at third.

I've written about this before. The early returns aren't good; yes, it's early, I realize that. It's also true that since 1950 only Enos Cabell has successfully converted from first base to third base at the major league level. We don't know yet how determined Scioscia will be to keep Trumbo's bat in the lineup, but playing him at third is likely to be a liability, especially since Trumbo's low OBP means he isn't really much -- if any -- of an offensive upgrade over Alberto Callaspo.

7. Howie Kendrick also coming off his best season.

Kendrick posted a career-high .802 OPS in 2011, 50 points above his career mark, fueled by a career-high 18 home runs. It's possible that power growth was real, as he appeared to sacrifice a few more strikeouts -- a career-high 20.4 percent K rate -- for a little more power while maintaining his usual .285 or so batting average. But there's also a chance it was simply his best season and he's not quite as good.

8. Maybe Albert Pujols won't be better than he was in 2011.

Hey, that's still pretty awesome, if also somewhat more mortal compared to his previous decade of production.

Look, it's only a week. The Angels should still have one of the best, and maybe the best, rotations in the league. They have a lot of depth and versatility in the lineup, although it remains to be seen who will be a second and third big bat behind Pujols.

The larger point is this: This isn't a perfect team in my book, certainly one that shouldn't rate as such a landslide favorite to make the playoffs and win the World Series.

So, yes, I just managed to slam 49 of my ESPN colleagues. This is what the first week does to us.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Today's staff prediction from the SweetSpot blog network: the AL Cy Young Award. Justin Verlander received 11 of 38 first-place votes as eight different pitchers received first-place nominations. Yes, there are a lot of ace-level starters right now. The last AL pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards was Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000.

Another Tuesday, another chap wrap. Will David Price win the Cy Young? Will Albert Pujols find his groove in L.A.? Who are the favorites for Rookie of the Year? Is Ryan Zimmerman's contract a bad deal for the Nationals?

This exercise has no scientific value whatsoever. But it's fun. Let's go position by position and see whether the Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels rate higher. For the purpose of this discussion, we'll assume the Rangers will sign Yu Darvish.

Catcher: Mike Napoli vs. Chris Iannetta

Here's the thing about Napoli: He actually hit better on the road in 2011, so his monster season wasn't just a result of changing to a better park. After hitting .187 through May 27, Napoli finished at .232 in the first half and crushed the ball after the All-Star break, hitting .383/.466/.706 (wait, why was he batting eighth in the World Series?). Napoli cut his strikeout rate over 7 percent from 2010 and increased his walk rate. He did have a .344 average on balls in play compared to his career mark of .303, even though his line-drive percentage was only 1 percent higher, so some regression is no doubt in order. Still, his booming bat makes this a clear selection. Advantage: Rangers.

First base: Mitch Moreland vs. Albert Pujols

Moreland had a disappointing sophomore season, although he played through a wrist injury that required surgery in November. He also requires a platoon partner against left-handers. He does, however, ground into fewer double plays than Pujols. OK, I managed to write one paragraph attempting to compare Mitch Moreland to Albert Pujols. Advantage: Angels.

Second base: Ian Kinsler vs. Howie Kendrick

Kinsler hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases in 34 attempts and turned the double play as pretty as anybody in the game . Kendrick had his best season with that bat and with the glove, with the defensive metrics giving him an outstanding rating. Overall, FanGraphs.com rated Kinsler as the sixth most valuable position player in the majors in 2011, and Kendrick 18th. Now, I don't believe Kinsler is the sixth-best player in baseball and the big argument against that is he hit just .214 on the road and owns a career average 67 points higher at home. It would be interesting to see Kendrick hitting at Rangers Ballpark. Still, Kinsler's power, defense and speed gives him the edge. Advantage: Rangers.

Third base: Adrian Beltre vs. Alberto Callaspo

You could probably dig up enough numbers to make this an interesting argument. For example, Callaspo had the higher on-base percentage in 2011, .366 to .331. Callaspo hit .309/.368/.436 on the road in 2011 while Beltre hit .271/.297/.440. But let's not get too silly here. Advantage: Rangers.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Erick Aybar

This is one probably closer than you think. Or maybe not. But it does show Andrus' level of national exposure is pretty high for a guy who hit five home runs and made 25 errors. Andrus led in FanGraphs' WAR, 4.5 to 4.0, while Aybar led in Baseball-Reference WAR, 4.7 to 3.5. Andrus has the better range and on-base skills and is one of the best baserunners in the league, but his lack of power helps tilt the comparison toward Aybar. Andrus did increase his extra-base hits from 18 to 35 and he just turned 23, so maybe that slight increase in doubles power is arriving. Aybar had an excellent 2009, a poor 2010 and a solid 2011. Both are good players. A close call, but I like Andrus' chances of raising his game a bit in 2012. Advantage: Rangers.

Left field: David Murphy vs. Vernon Wells

Murphy wasn't actually very good in 2011. But he was better than Wells. (In fact, for all the talk about the Rangers going after Prince Fielder to upgrade first base, why no talk about upgrading left field?) Of course, they could slide Josh Hamilton to left if Leonys Martin is ready for center, but Martin seems ticketed for at least half a season in Triple-A. Advantage: Rangers.

Center field: Josh Hamilton vs. Peter Bourjos

Here's the deal: If the Rangers called up the Angels and said, "We'll offer you Hamilton for Bourjos," who hangs up first? Certainly, if you consider the contracts of each, the Angels hang up. But what if we ignore the financial circumstances? What do the Angels say? You have a supreme flychaser in Bourjos who had a solid year with the bat in his first full season. Hamilton was awesome in his 2010 MVP season, but his OBP in 2009 was .315 and in 2011 it was .346, hardly sterling figures for playing in a hitter's paradise. And he's injury prone. In fact, both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference rated Bourjos as the better player in 2011. And, no, that's not because he played more often -- Bourjos only had 14 more plate appearances. Hamilton had only 12 more extra-base hits and drew only seven more walks. He outhit Bourjos .298 to .271. Hamilton was better at the plate, but not by a large margin. Anyway, I give Hamilton the edge since Bourjos has to prove he can do this again and Hamilton's mammoth 2010 still buzzes our memories. Advantage: Rangers

Right field: Nelson Cruz vs. Torii Hunter

Cruz is another example of why the Texas lineup is a bit overrated: He posted a .312 OBP in 2011, which placed him 112th out of 148 regulars with 500 plate appearances. Now, when he gets hot -- as we saw in the ALCS -- he can be unstoppable, but when he's off he'll chase pitchers out of the zone. His career season in 2010 appears fueled by a higher than normal .348 average on balls in play. While he has a strong arm, Rangers fans unfortunately saw his lack of range on display in Game 6 of the World Series. Hunter, on the hand, is getting old and didn't hit right-handers very well in 2011. Still, his .313 OBP against righties was higher than Cruz's season total. Factor in Hunter's durability and defense and Cruz's annual aches and pains, and I'll go Hunter. Advantage: Angels.

Designated hitter: Michael Young vs. Mark Trumbo

Hey, it's 2011's two most overrated players! Advantage: Rangers. Although I'd like to see home many home runs Trumbo could hit in Arlington.

Bench: Yorvit Torrealba/Craig Gentry/Julio Borbon vs. Hank Conger/Maicer Izturis/Bobby Abreu/Kendrys Morales

Big edge here to the Angels. And while the Rangers have Martin on the horizon, the Angels can counter with Mike Trout. Advantage: Angels.

No. 1 starter: Yu Darvish vs. Jered Weaver

Weaver has been one of baseball's top 10 starters the past two seasons. Darvish may be good, but as good as Weaver? That's expecting a lot. Advantage: Angels.

No. 2 starter: Matt Harrison vs. Dan Haren

The ERA difference between the two was small -- Harrison's 3.39 versus Haren's 3.17, and once you factor in the home parks, Harrison actually had the better adjusted ERA. On the other hand, Haren had a 192/33 strikeout/walk ratio compared to Harrison's 126/57. While he benefits from being in the perfect park for him, we have to go with Haren's proven record of success and durability. Advantage: Angels.

No. 3 starter: Derek Holland vs. C.J. Wilson

Wilson had a 2.31 ERA on the road in 2011. Don't be surprised if he contends for the Cy Young Award in 2012. Advantage: Angels.

No. 4 starter: Colby Lewis vs. Ervin Santana

Unlike Haren, as a flyball pitcher Lewis is probably in the worst park for him. He gave up 35 home runs in 2011, and 23 of those came at home. On the road, he went 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA. The underlying results of the two are pretty similar, although Santana has better stuff. I get the feeling that if you switched parks, they'd post each other's numbers. Advantage: Draw.

No. 5 starter: Neftali Feliz vs. Jerome Williams

In his first promotion to the majors in 2009, Feliz averaged 11.3 K's per nine with a 4.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 2010, those numbers fell to 9.2 and 3.94. In 2011, they fell again, to 7.8 and 4.3. Why is he getting worse? Will a move to the rotation help? Did he throw his fastball too much? Will he recover from blowing the clinching game of the World Series? All intriguing questions without answers to be determined. Jerome Williams -- yes, the kid who came up with the Giants in 2003 when he was just 21 -- is still just 30 years old. He made it back to the majors after beginning the year in independent ball. Advantage: Rangers.

Closer: Joe Nathan vs. Jordan Walden

From June 28 on, Nathan pitched 28 innings, allowed a .190 average and struck out 28 batters with just five walks. You can't read too much into 28 innings, but it's a good sign that it just took him some time to recover from Tommy John surgery. Walden led the majors with 10 blown saves, but his underlying numbers were all strong. I love his power fastball and with a little better command, he should be dynamite. Advantage: Angels.

Bullpen: Alexi Ogando/Mike Adams/Koji Uehara/Scott Feldman/Mark Lowe vs. Scott Downs/LaTroy Hawkins/Hisanori Takayashi/Rich Thompson/Bobby Cassevah

With Ogando apparently slated to move back to the pen and a full season from Adams, the Rangers' pen looks deep although it currently lacks a reliable left-hander. Advantage: Rangers.

Manager: Ron Washington vs. Mike Scioscia

It's hard to give Washington the edge after his postseason performance. On the other hand, Scioscia gave Wells 500 at-bats. Advantage: Draw.

The final score: Rangers win 9-7 with two draws. But if the Angels do the same thing and ignore Wells' fat salary and play Mike Trout in left field, that would give them the edge there and even our score at 8-8. In other words, how many days until Opening Day?

When fans think of Bobby Valentine, most will initially think of the time he tried to sneak back into the dugout wearing glasses and a fake mustache after getting ejected from a game. There will be plenty of talk about the perception that he's arrogant, a little aloof and craves the limelight too much. There will be talk that he hasn't managed in the major leagues since 2002 (although he did in Japan after that) and that his departure from the Mets was fueled in part by his disagreements with general manager Steve Phillips.

So the talk will mostly be about his personality. But what kind of manager was he? Let's look back at his career -- focusing mostly on his full seasons with the Mets from 1997 to 2002 -- to see what that may indicate about how he'll manage the Red Sox.

Will Carl Crawford hit leadoff?

With Jacoby Ellsbury's new power stroke, it may make sense to move him down in the order to get him more RBI opportunities; that would leave Crawford as a leadoff option. I don't see that. Even if Crawford bounces back, his on-base percentage is hardly ideal for a leadoff hitter and Valentine -- a guy who was using computers and studying sabermetrics back with the Rangers in the '80s -- craves a high OBP from his leadoff hitter.

Check out his leadoff hitters with the Mets:

1997: Lance Johnson/Brian McRae.
1998: Brian McRae/Tony Phillips -- McRae posted a career-high .360 OBP that year.
1999: Rickey Henderson.
2000: Ten different leadoff hitters, including Benny Agbayani 27 games.
2001: Used four guys at least 20 games, led by Joe McEwing's 44 games. Led off Agbayani 32 times.
2002: Roberto Alomar/Roger Cedeno.

The unconventional use of Agbayani, the rotund Hawaiian without much speed but in possession of good on-base skills, shows Valentine's preference for OBP. In 2002, with Cedeno failing to do the job, he used Alomar there. I see Crawford remaining lower in the order, with Ellsbury staying in the No. 1 spot.

Does he like the quick hook or does he let his starters stay in the game?

There's not really a lot of in-game strategy in the American League, especially with a team like the Red Sox that basically just looks to bash the ball. So the most important strategic elements for Valentine will be how he handles the rotation and bullpen. The 2011 Red Sox were 12th in the AL in average innings per start, but that was more a function of a lousy rotation than Terry Francona's itchy trigger finger.

Let's see where the Mets under Valentine ranked in average in innings per start among NL teams:

1997: 5th
1998: 4th
1999: 8th
2000: 4th
2001: 4th
2002: 5th

Nothing really unusual here, as the Mets usually had a solid rotation under Valentine. They ranked in the upper half of innings because he had decent pitchers.

He was a little more generous when it came to allowing his starters throw 100 to 119 pitches:

1997: 9th
1998: 7th
1999: 12th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 4th

What's interesting about the 2001 squad is that they actually allowed the fewest walks in the league, so the high pitch counts weren't the result of a staff that walked a lot of hitters. He had a veteran rotation that year -- Leiter, Kevin Appier, Glendon Rusch, Steve Trachsel, Rick Reed -- and let his starters work deeper into games. It will be interesting to see if Valentine allows Jon Lester and Josh Beckett to reach the century mark more often than Francona did. In 2011, Lester had 22 100-pitch games -- tied for 25th-most among major league starters; Beckett had 21. Justin Verlander had 34, CC Sabathia 31, and other top AL pitchers like James Shields, David Price, Felix Hernandez, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren and Jered Weaver were all in the high 20s or low 30s.

Does he like an experienced closer?

In other words, would he be comfortable with Daniel Bard in the ninth inning? With the Mets, he initially had John Franco. The team acquired Armando Benitez in 1999 and when Franco went down with an injury in early July, Benitez took over as closer; when Franco returned, Benitez kept the closer job. As the Rangers' manager from 1985 to 1992, he had a different closer every year early on, before the club turned starter Jeff Russell into a successful closer in 1989. Hard to read too much into this, although both Russell and Bard throw hard. My guess is this becomes more of a front-office decision (do they sign Ryan Madson?), but that Valentine would have no problem making Bard his closer.

Does he like strikeout pitchers or guys who throw strikes?

With the Rangers, Valentine (and pitching coach Tom House) were obsessed with guys who threw hard. They had Bobby Witt, Jose Guzman, Edwin Correa, Nolan Ryan, Mitch Williams and others. Ryan had mostly refined his control (for him) by the time he reached Texas, but the other four would have problems hitting a barn door placed 10 feet in front of them. His first four staffs all had the highest walk rate in the American League. His staffs with the Mets were better, and Valentine seemed less concerned with velocity -- guys like Reed, Bobby Jones and Rusch were more finesse-type pitchers who threw strikes.

Mets strikeout rate under Valentine:

1997: 13th
1998: 7th
1999: 4th
2000: 3rd
2001: 5th
2002: 5th

Mets walk rate under Valentine:

1997: 2nd
1998: 7th
1999: 8th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 5th


Does he like a set lineup?

During his years with the Mets, Valentine always had a set infield, but remarkably never had one outfielder start 100 games at one position more than once. His machinations out there were pretty remarkable and show the willingness to be flexible and mix and match players as needed. Now, with the Red Sox he won't have same issue, with Ellsbury and Crawford playing every day, but it certainly suggests he'd be comfortable with a platoon in right field.

Here's the list of outfielders who started 100 games in a season at the same position with the Mets under Valentine:

1997: Bernard Gilkey, LF, 134
1998: Brian McRae, CF, 144
1999: Rickey Henderson, LF, 113
2000: Jay Payton, CF, 124; Derek Bell, RF, 136
2001: None
2002: Roger Cedeno, LF, 125; Jeromy Burnitz, RF, 131

The big issue here is how he handles Crawford, especially if he struggles to hit left-handers again (.195 in 2011). Would he consider benching Crawford against lefties, or at least the tough lefties?


Does he like young players?

With the Mets, he mostly had a veteran lineup. He did give Agbayani an opportunity, broke in Payton and Timo Perez, and gave Cedeno his first chance to play every day. With the Rangers, he broke in position players like Ruben Sierra, Oddibe McDowell, Steve Buechele, Pete Incaviglia, Jerry Browne, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez and Dean Palmer. Again, this might be more of a front-office decision, but I'd say Valentine would give youngsters like Josh Reddick and Ryan Lavarnway an opportunity to play regularly.

Valentine's reputation with the Mets was one of being prepared and being tactically smart with his in-game moves. He had to do more with the Mets than he'll have to with the Red Sox, especially considering he was often platooning at one or two outfield spots. He trusted his veteran starters to go deep into games. In short, there's nothing radically unconventional about Valentine's managerial philosophy. Of course, he last managed in the majors 10 years ago and his biggest challenge won't necessarily be strategy, but getting Crawford to rebound, getting his older players in better shape, and rebuilding Bard's confidence.

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched, WHIP and hits per nine innings. He threw a no-hitter, had 16 starts in which he allowed one run or no runs and didn’t lose a game from mid-June through the end of the regular season. To nobody's surprise, he won his first Cy Young Award on Tuesday, becoming the first Tigers pitcher to win since reliever Willie Hernandez in 1984.

A few will argue for CC Sabathia. Indeed, here are the voting results from the SweetSpot Network bloggers (seven points for first, four for second, three for third; the real vote also awards two points for fourth and one for fifth):

Justin Verlander, Tigers: 169 points (23 first-place votes)
CC Sabathia, Yankees: 91 points (2)
Jered Weaver, Angels: 65 points
Dan Haren, Angels: 15 points
James Shields, Rays: 10 points

The basic case for Sabathia rests on that he pitched in a tougher division in a tougher park while allowing fewer home runs (24 for Verlander, 17 for Sabathia) and suffering from bad luck while Verlander received plenty of good fortune. I don’t quite buy it. Verlander allowed 14 fewer runs while pitching 14 more innings. Although Yankee Stadium is a good hitters' park, it favors left-handed batters over right-handers, so Sabathia wouldn’t necessarily face the same disadvantage as a right-handed pitcher. (Indeed, he allowed a .618 OPS at home, .710 on the road.) Comerica Park, despite its big dimensions to center field, actually plays as a slight hitters' park, according to Baseball-Reference's park factors. Verlander allowed a .547 OPS at home, .563 on the road.

As for tougher competition, that part is true. Against the top four offensive teams in the AL (Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Tigers), Sabathia made 10 starts, Verlander five. Against the bottom four offenses (Mariners, Twins, Athletics, White Sox), Sabathia made seven starts, Verlander 13. It's an important consideration, but perhaps it's also important to note that Sabathia didn't step it up against the best teams: He went 1-4, 6.39 ERA against Boston; he allowed 21 baserunners in 13 innings against Detroit; he was 2-0 against Texas in three starts but with a 5.14 ERA. In his limited action against the best hitting teams, Verlander posted a 2.70 ERA.

Finally, there is the matter of Verlander's allowing a .236 average on balls in play and Sabathia a .318 mark. Verlander's BABIP was second-lowest among starters (behind Jeremy Hellickson's .223), while Sabathia's was one of the worst. Sabathia allowed 230 hits in 985 plate appearances; Verlander allowed 174 in 969. That's a difference of 56 hits that Sabathia supporters have to account for via bad luck or good luck -- or about one hit per game per pitcher. For what it's worth, Baseball Info Solutions rated each team's overall defense roughly the same -- the Yankees as 15 runs below average, the Tigers as 18 runs below average.

Anyway, when trying to digest all these numbers, one little one jumped out at me: When Verlander went to a 2-0 count -- when hitters usually thrive -- he held opponents to a .202 average with just one home run in 89 at-bats, with 24 strikeouts and 24 walks. When Sabathia went to a 2-0 count, opponents hit .316 (24-for-76) with 32 walks and 16 strikeouts. Another big difference: When batters put a 1-0 pitch in play, they hit .241 off Verlander (13-for-54) but .403 off Sabathia (29-for-72). Isn't it possible that Sabathia more often threw hittable pitches on that count, trying to avoid that 2-0 hole?

My ballot
1. Justin Verlander
2. CC Sabathia
3. Jered Weaver
4. James Shields
5. C.J. Wilson

* * * *

At some point early in the season, I said something to Mark Simon on the Baseball Today podcast along the lines of "Will Verlander ever put it all together?" My point was that he had entered the season with a career 3.81 ERA; he had finished fifth in the 2007 Cy Young vote and third in the 2009 Cy Young vote, but he'd never had that knockout season, never had an ERA below 3.00.

He certainly delivered on that front. How historic was his season?

In the most basic level of analysis -- preventing runs -- not that historic. He prevented 47 fewer runs than the average 2011 American League pitcher would for his workload, which ranks 51st since 1961. The top 10: Pedro Martinez, 2000 (79); Roger Clemens, 1997 (74); Pedro Martinez, 1999 (67); Dwight Gooden, 1985 (63); Randy Johnson, 1999 (62); Greg Maddux, 1995 (62); Steve Carlton, 1972 (61); Sandy Koufax, 1966 (60); Bob Gibson, 1968 (60); Ron Guidry, 1978 (59).

Of course, not all runs are created equal. A run in low-scoring 1968 was worth more than a run in high-scoring 1999. That's where a stat like WAR (wins above replacement) comes in, as it adjusts for era and home park. On Baseball-Reference, Verlander moves up to 32nd since 1961. However, most of the leaders on that list come from the 1960s and '70s, when pitchers threw more innings and made more starts; if you pitched more, you could accumlate more value. If we change the cutoff date to 1990, Verlander jumps up higher on the WAR list: seventh (tied with 1993 Jose Rijo), behind only 1997 Clemens, 2000 Martinez, 1990 Clemens, 2009 Zack Greinke, 2002 Johnson and 1995 Maddux.

Verlander's dominance manifested itself in other ways as well: Since 1990, the only AL pitchers to allow a lower OPS were Martinez in 1999 and 2000 and Nolan Ryan in 1991. Since 1990, only five times has a starter allowed a lower batting average than Verlander's .192 mark -- Martinez twice, Ryan twice and Hideo Nomo.

In the end, maybe Verlander's season isn't quite Pantheon level -- but it was an amazing run, probably one of the top 10 pitcher seasons of the past 20 years.

I don't know about you, but I can't wait for the encore.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

If you’re wondering how the AL West race might play out, the Angels have just four series and 13 games in 14 days to somehow make up three games on the Rangers. The Angels’ odds already weren’t good before the Rangers won on Wednesday night, ranging from 15 percent according to CoolStandings.com, down to around 7 percent according to Clay Davenport, and 6 percent via Baseball Prospectus.

So, Angels manager Mike Scioscia’s team needs to win at least 10 of those 13 games to have a shot at this. While he gets to lead off with Dan Haren on Friday to help make it so, just nine of those 13 games will be started by the big three of Haren, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver. Scioscia’s already looking ahead to the final regular-season matchup against Texas and is moving Weaver up to start on three days’ rest against the Orioles on Sunday to help get Weaver in line for a last-game start against the Rangers on Sept. 28.

It’s a good idea, even if starting Weaver on short rest didn’t turn out so well last month. The problem is that it’s just one tweak to a desperate situation, when the Angels could try to squeeze at least one more start from the big three in the next two weeks. Otherwise, they are risking almost a third of their remaining schedule on the uncertain contributions of Joel Pineiro and Jerome Williams. That’s four acts of faith with a pair of erratic pitchers, or optimistically banking on an equally inconsistent offense to show up and outscore that duo four times.

How big is that risk? Using BP’s support-neutral winning percentage (SNWP) to gauge starter performance without reference to run support, the per-game difference between the big three and the little two is huge: Pineiro’s SNWP is just .446, while Williams is at .458 in his four turns; the lowest SNWP among the big three is Santana’s at .547. Between those two groups, that’s a 10 percent swing on how likely you are to win an individual game with a single nightly elective decision over who starts. If the Angels are going to make up the difference, they need to squeeze every percentage of possible advantage.

Getting Weaver lined up to start on the last day of the season is nice, but very probably irrelevant. By the time Weaver’s start on the last day of the regular season rolls around, it may not matter if Weaver makes that start, or Geoff Zahn, or Brendan Fraser for all the good it’d do the Angels, because chances are they’ll already be done. The Angels’ problems exist beyond Sunday’s game against the Orioles.

The Angels need to do more than beat Baltimore, they need to beat time, and the best way to do that will be to start their best. Scioscia could squeeze out a 10th game in 13 from his big three if he moved all of them up a day to face Toronto, their next opponent, because even if the Angels sweep the O’s, they’re sure to still be chasing the Rangers. So why risk starting both Pineiro and Williams in the first two games against a good Blue Jays ballclub?

Instead, the Angels should bring all three of the power trio forward a day, and see about starting all three on three days’ rest in Toronto. Doing that puts their best starters in six of the next seven games, and gives the Halos a small prayer of making up ground. Rather than making plans for what to do on the last day, the Angels need to be thinking about the fact that they’re about to run out of tomorrows.

If Texas keeps its lead or expands it in the next week, Scioscia can chuck this short-rest gamble. It certainly won’t matter who’s starting on the last day. But by moving everyone who matters up next week in Toronto and not just Weaver on Sunday, he could still start Santana and Weaver in the first two games against Texas on regular rest. If Haren makes the middle start against Oakland on three days’ rest, he’d also be available on the last day of the season -- again, on three days’ rest -- if the Angels are still playing for something. They can worry about that when and if they get there.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Things got a tad out of hand on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast with myself and Keith Law, but really, in a good and fun way. I think. Anyway, with apologies to Justin Timberlake -- don’t ask -- here were some of the topics:

1. We took a closer look at some of the interesting Wednesday games, from the Dan Haren-Felix Hernandez duel to the NL West race, Yankees-Red Sox and Ryan Braun falling down.

2. Is Conor Jackson a good fit for the Red Sox? A few more veterans were sent to contenders late Wednesday, but a certain lefty reliever for the defending AL champs could really make a difference.

3. Today on "Cinema Today" we delve into why movies don’t follow the exact facts. Hey, it bothers me! Scott Hatteberg better hit left-handed in the upcoming "Moneyball" movie.

4. Craig Kimbrel breaks the rookie save record! How awesome! But we manage to bypass that meaningless tidbit to discuss a bigger, more critical picture involving the right-hander and his pals.

5. Thursday’s schedule is highlighted by the lure of young Tigers right-hander Jacob Turner and the potential ugliness of an A.J. Burnett disaster. Why not watch each?

Plus: Excellent emails, more about the runs scored statistic, building the perfect new stadium, video in the minor leagues and a whole lot more -- with cat noises -- on a packed Baseball Today for Thursday! Check in Friday as I’m joined by Mark Simon and send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com!

Last week, the Texas Rangers beat the Los Angeles Angels 4-3, scoring two runs in the eighth inning on Ian Kinsler's two-out barely-making-contact blooper off Ervin Santana. The hit knocked Santana from the game, and, seemingly, knocked the Angels out of the playoff race. It was the Rangers’ third straight win over their AL West rivals and gave them a seven-game lead. In the first two games of the series, Mike Scioscia had made an odd tactical decision by lining up two rookies to start the series, one of whom was making just his second major league start. Kinsler’s single appeared to be a lethal blow to the Angels’ season.

But there was one game remaining in their series.

It was a perfect summer evening in Southern California and the Angels sent their ace to the mound. Like he has all season, Jered Weaver delivered, taking a shutout into the seventh inning. Trouble is, Colby Lewis had matched his donuts on the scoreboard, and then ex-Angel Mike Napoli homered for a 1-0 lead. Angels fans could only stare in despair at Jeff Mathis' .178 batting average.

Then came the bottom of the ninth with Mike Adams in to close out the sweep for the Rangers. Torii Hunter led off and singled to right-center on a 1-0 pitch. Rookie first baseman Mark Trumbo dug in against a pitcher who had allowed just six home runs over the three seasons. The Angels were looking at a six-game losing streak and according to coolstandings.com, their odds of winning the division were down to four percent and plummeting.

And then Trumbo launched a fly ball to deep left field that wrapped around the foul pole -- a game-winning home run, a two-game swing in the standings and rejuvenation for the Angels.

"I hope we talk about this game in November," Scioscia said. "I hope we talk about this as a swing game."

And since then? The Angels cut the lead to five games, and then four, and then down to 3.5. Wednesday night, the Rangers got bombed again by the Red Sox, Jered Weaver was outstanding again, and the lead is suddenly down to 2.5 games.

Listen closely, Rangers fans: That sound you hear is the Angels breathing down your necks.

Did we mention that the two teams meet this weekend in Texas? And close the season in Anaheim? We have a pennant race -- somehow, despite the Rangers owning a run differential 77 runs better than the Angels, despite Scioscia’s insistence on playing Mathis and his Mendoza-esque stick, despite Vernon Wells' .209 batting average and .242 on-base percentage, despite Bobby Abreu's decaying power and Jordan Walden leading the majors with nine blown saves, we have a pennant race.

It’s hard to believe, but that’s how baseball works sometimes… and you know what? The Angels can win this thing. Don’t laugh. It can happen.

Here are three reasons Rangers fans are sweating. Alexi Ogando has been terrific so far, with a 3.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He’s also a guy who has pitched in relief in his professional career; after throwing 72 innings last year, he’s at 147 total innings this season. Matt Harrison got roughed up on Wednesday. After pitching 85 innings a year ago and 72 in 2008, he just passed the 150-inning mark. Yes, he pitched 167 innings one year in the minors, but 167 innings in the South Atlantic League is not that same as 167 innings in the heat of a Texas pennant race. Derek Holland has pitched 158 2/3 innings, a career high for him, majors or minors. He may have to make another seven starts.

I’m not saying that these guys will fade. Heck, the same questions were raised a year ago with C.J. Wilson after his transition from relief, and he was stellar down the stretch and in the postseason. But I agree with Jim Bowden, who mentioned this on the Baseball Today podcast: Those three Rangers are entering new territory and how their arms and heads respond could very well decide the AL West race.

The Angels, meanwhile, have their big three of Weaver, Santana and Dan Haren. Those three guys have carried the Angels and will have to do so. And my advice to Scioscia: DO IT. BY ALL MEANS DO IT. By that, I mean pitch Weaver on three days’ rest on Sunday against the Rangers. Scioscia has said he’s thinking about it. Yes, Weaver has never started on three days’ rest in his career in the regular season. But the Angels lack rotation depth, Weaver is their ace, and he has to step up. Let’s see him do what CC Sabathia did for the Brewers in 2008.

I wouldn’t stop there. I’d consider starting Weaver several times on three days’ rest the remainder of the season, and Haren and Santana as well. If Scioscia could pull out an extra few starts from those guys at the expense of Tyler Chatwood or Joel Pineiro or Jerome Williams, the better chance the Angels have to surprise the Rangers.

And everybody else.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

With trade rumors hitting us in full force as the deadline approaches, let's take a look back at some of what happened at the 2010 trade deadline and see how many of those players are making an impact for their new teams.

Cliff Lee traded to the Rangers; Mariners acquired Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson and Josh Lueke
Despite a solid BB/K rate, Smoak continues to struggle with consistency at the big league level. He's still only 24, so there is time for him to improve, but he's not the instant impact bat that the Mariners were hoping for. Both Beavan and Lueke have pitched in spots for the Mariners this season. The Rangers rode Lee’s contributions to the World Series and have since moved on from Smoak seamlessly, relying instead on the likes of postseason hero Mitch Moreland, Michael Young and Mike Napoli.

Dan Haren traded to the Angels; Diamondbacks received Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs, Patrick Corbin and Rafael Rodriguez
Haren has thrived for the Angels this season, and Saunders has held his own with the surprise contenders in Arizona. However, the big score for the D-Back may not arrive until late next season or 2013, as Skaggs has continued to impress all those who have seen him pitch. Recently, he earned a promotion to Double-A after posting a 3.22 ERA, 2.65 FIP and 3.7 K/BB rate at High-A Visalia in the hitter-friendly California League. Corbin has had his struggles at Double-A, but he has posted an impressive 4.5 K/BB rate and should see the big leagues one day.

Edwin Jackson traded to the White Sox; Diamondbacks received Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg
This move was sort of a head-scratcher at the time, and the way Hudson has pitched for the D’backs ever since confirms that confusion. The Snakes have Hudson under team control through 2016 while Jackson will hit the free-agent market this winter.

Roy Oswalt traded to the Phillies; Astros acquired J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar Oswalt pitched brilliantly for the Phils in the 2010 postseason. However, career-long back problems may have finally caught up to him. On the Astros' side, Happ was plugged right into the rotation, but his struggles with command and allowing the long ball have led to an ERA nearing six. Gose never played a game in the Astros' system as he was flipped to the Blue Jays for first baseman Brett Wallace; the 24-year-old Wallace has been unimpressive in his young major league career, though he does sport an above-average OBP. Villar continues to struggle with strikeouts in the minor leagues.

Lance Berkman traded to the Yankees; Astros received Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes
While Berkman is in the midst of a late-career renaissance with the Cardinals, Melancon has taken over as the Astros' closer with a 2.91 ERA, 3.33 FIP and ground-ball rate of 60 percent. Jimmy Paredes is now in Double-A and continues to steal bases, but he also continues to struggle with his lack of plate discipline.

Matt Capps traded to the Twins; Nationals received Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa
Capps pitched well for the Twins down the stretch in 2010, but his huge regression in strikeout rate has hurt him big-time this season. In the meantime, despite some ups and downs in his first full big-league season, Ramos has established himself as the Nationals' catcher of the now and the immediate future.

Jhonny Peralta traded to the Tigers; Indians received Giovanni Soto
Peralta re-signed with the Tigers last offseason and has been worth every penny of the $5.25M he is making this season. Over the past two seasons, Peralta has improved his contact rate, which has helped to lower his strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the 20-year-old Soto continues to show good strikeout ability at the lower minor-league levels of the Indians' organization.

Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot traded to the Dodgers; Cubs received Blake DeWitt, Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit
Lilly pitched well for the Dodgers down the stretch in 2010, but his issues with the gopher-ball have hurt him this season. With the Dodger's financial situation in shambles, the three-year $33 million deal Lilly signed last offseason only makes things worse. Overall, this deal has helped no one, though the Dodgers did at least acquire league-average reliever Blake Hawksworth in exchange for Theriot this past offseason.

Octavio Dotel traded to the Dodgers; Pirates acquired James McDonald and Andrew Lambo
After being acquired by Los Angeles, Dotel appeared in 19 games, allowed seven earned runs and was then traded to the Rockies in September. The Pirates landed the high-upside, inconsistent McDonald, who has been once again inconsistent. However, his 4.15 ERA (4.57 FIP) have at least contributed as a back-end rotation piece to the surprising Pirates. Lambo was once a top-end prospect with the Dodgers, but his prospect status is all but gone now. He's hitting .206/.278/.326 between Double- and Triple-A this season.

Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel traded to the Braves; Royals received Tim Collins, Jesse Chavez and Gregor Blanco
Both Farnsworth and Ankiel moved on from the Braves in the offseason, and Blanco was traded to the Nationals this past May. Collins made the Royals out of spring training and has continued to prove that he can miss bats (24.3 percent whiff rate), but his control has really tailed off at the big-league level. Collins is only 21 years old, so his future may still be as a consistent late-inning reliever someday.

Charlie Saponara writes for SweetSpot blog, "Fire Brand of the AL." You can find all of his writing adventures by following on Twitter.

Our Stats & Information Department reports that entering Monday's action we've had 25 no-hit bids of at least five innings, compared to 18 through May 8 of 2010. Home runs dropped from 172 from April 25 through May 1 to 142 over the past week. Yes, the pitchers appear to be taking over.

Now, all these no-hit bids don't necessarily mean we're back in 1968 ... or does it? Here's a table comparing different yardsticks of pitching dominance over the past five years, plus some selected years from the past.



The upticks compared to last year are minor, other than the percentage of 90-plus gems would be the highest of the years on the list since 1988, a notorious pitcher's year. The six 90-plus starts so far:

• Cliff Lee's 12-strikeout, 1-walk, 3-hit shutout on April 14 (Game Score: 92).

• Ian Kennedy's 10-strikeout, 0-walk, 3-hit shutout of the Phillies (91).

• Dan Haren's 8-strikeout, 2-walk, 1-hit shutout of Cleveland (90).

• Justin Verlander's, 4-strikeout, 1-walk, no-hitter (90).

• Jaime Garcia's 8-strikeout, 1-walk, 2-hit shutout of Milwaukee (90).

• Tim Hudson's 6-strikeout, 1-walk, 1-hit shutout of Milwaukee (90).

By the way, that was two Game Scores of 90 against the Brewers over three days. Ouch.

We've yet to see a Game Score that matched the best of that 1988 season, which featured nine games of 93 or better, led by a 96 from the Yankees' John Candelaria (9 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 13 SO) and a 96 from Roger Clemens (9 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 16 SO). Candelaria also had a 95, a 12-strikeout two-hitter. Clemens and Kansas City's Mark Gubicza each had three games of 90-plus. That was also the year Dave Stieb threw three one-hitters, including his final two starts, when he lost no-hitters with two outs in the ninth.

Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot.

In 2007, just three seasons after losing 111 games, the Arizona Diamondbacks won 90 games and the NL West title and reached the NLCS. They were swept by red-hot division rival Colorado, but it was a terrific season for a young ballclub. The future looked bright for a team that started just one regular position player over 30 and had the youngest lineup in the National League.

Among the promising hitters: Rookie center fielder Chris Young hit 32 home runs and stole 27 bases; shortstop Stephen Drew, in his first full season, hit just .238 but played solid defense and had 44 extra-base hits; rookie third baseman Mark Reynolds hit .279 with 17 home runs in 111 games; second-year right fielder Carlos Quentin had struggled (.214/.298/.349), but the team had called Justin Upton, who was just 19 when he made his major league debut. Backup catcher Miguel Montero showed promise in his rookie season. Sitting in the farm system: Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Max Scherzer and Jarrod Parker. With that base, the D-backs followed their 90-win season by winning 82, 70 and 65 games and the 2011 team is 12-15 with four starters owning ERAs on the wrong side of 5.00.

So, what went wrong?

1. The 2007 team wasn't that good. Despite winning 90 games it was actually outscored 732 to 712 and despite playing in a great hitter's park, ranked just 14th in the NL in runs and 16th in batting average and on-base percentage. In truth the Diamondbacks had a bad offense -- granted, one that could be expected to improve due to the young hitters ... but how much?

2. The Eric Byrnes contract. Late in the 2007, the team signed the scrappy Byrnes to a three-year, $30 million extension. Byrnes had a nice 2007, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 50 bases. But he was 31 years old and the contract proved a disaster as Byrnes hit .218 over two seasons before getting released.

3. Thinking they need to improve upon a rotation of Brandon Webb, Livan Hernandez, Doug Davis and Micah Owings, the team traded Gonzalez and Anderson to the A's for Dan Haren. Haren was traded last season to the Angels for a mediocre Joe Saunders and prospect Tyler Skaggs, who is several years from the majors. So, for Gonzalez and Anderson the team basically received two-plus years of Haren and a bottom-of-the-rotation starter.

4. Brandon Webb's injury. The team's ace and 2006 Cy Young winner, Webb won 22 games in 2008 before hurting his shoulder.

5. A related note has been Arizona's complete inability to develop starting pitchers. Once you get past Webb, the starting pitcher developed from within with the most victories in a D-backs uniform is Owings, who won just 14.

6. Strikeouts, strikeouts, strikeouts. The homer-happy approach of the lineup went too far. After striking out the 10th and 11th most times in history in 2008 and 2009, the team set the all-time record in 2010, whiffing an amazing 1,529 times, with five players striking out at least 145 times. The strikeouts became a major hindrance to the young hitters becoming bigger stars, most notably Upton, who followed an excellent 2009 with a disappointing 2010. Young has been inconsistent and the team finally gave up on 200-strikeout man Reynolds, trading him to the Orioles.

7. Too much lost talent: Quentin, Alberto Callaspo and Jose Valverde were all traded and Orlando Hudson left as a free agent. The Diamondbacks have nothing on the current roster to show for those guys.

8. Bullpen blues. The pen -- led by closer Valverde -- was excellent in 2007, but slowly deteriorated to the point that Baseball Prospectus analyzed the 2010 pen as the fourth-worst since 1950.

This much is clear: The days of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling heating up the desert seem long ago.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Who says there’s no such thing as a big series in April? Not me.

Starting Monday, we have Giants at Rockies for three games, and it certainly feels like a big showdown to me. The Rockies have baseball’s best record at 12-3 -- but have yet to play a team with a winning record, as they’ve cleaned up against the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Pirates, Mets and Cubs. So they have a little something to prove. The Giants are 8-7, four games behind the Rockies, and certainly don’t want to leave Denver seven games out of first place. They have their three top starters lined up (Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain) to prove something to Troy Tulowitzki and Co.

The Rockies have been impressive in outscoring their opponents 85 to 59, especially going 7-1 on the road, after a dismal 31-50 mark in 2010. The Rockies have had only one winning road season in franchise history -- 41-40 in 2009 -- so getting off to a strong start there is a positive sign.

Second-year righty Esmil Rogers starts Monday against Lincecum in what may look like a mismatch, but Rogers has been solid in winning his first two starts. As a rookie in 2010 he was jerked around between Triple-A and the majors, between the bullpen and starting, so this is a good opportunity for the Rockies to see what they have. So far he’s been effective against left-handers (.200/.300/.343) but there are doubts on how his stuff will fare consistently against lefty swingers.

And with all the attention given to Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, it’s easy to forget that Ubaldo Jimenez is back after missing a couple starts with a cracked cuticle. The Giants hit just .168 in four games against Jimenez last season. He starts Tuesday against Sanchez.

Cain has allowed three runs over his first three starts, despite just 10 strikeouts over 19 innings. Going back to last September, and including his three postseason starts, Cain has allowed more than two runs just once in 10 starts (his final regular-season start of 2010). He may not impress you with the raw stuff that Lincecum and Jimenez possess, but since 2009 the only starters with a better ERA are Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Carpenter and Lincecum.

The Giants may also make a move with Cody Ross during the series. After a couple rehab starts with Fresno on Sunday and Monday, he should be activated from the DL. Will rookie first baseman Brandon Belt be sent down? After an 0-for-4 effort on Sunday, Belt is down to .200/.310/.280, with one homer and one double in 50 at-bats. But his eight walks shows the excellent discipline and understanding of the strike zone he displayed in the minors.

Considering Aubrey Huff’s shaky efforts in the outfield, the Giants may want to move Huff back to first and send Belt down until his bat gets going. I think it would be a mistake; despite his postseason heroics, Ross just isn’t that good (and it hurts saying that, as I’m a big fan). Ross can hit lefties -- .883 OPS in 2010 -- but shouldn’t be a regular against righties (.687 OPS in 2010). Andres Torres’ strained Achilles tendon that landed him on the DL may give Belt a two-week reprieve, as Ross could slide into center field (except Aaron Roward is inexplicably off to a .364/.378/.568 start in 44 at-bats).

It all adds up to some intriguing subplots to the best series of the week.

OTHER SERIES OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Angels at Texas

Monday: Ervin Santana (0-1, 3.74 ERA) vs. C.J. Wilson (1-0, 3.72)

Tuesday: Matt Palmer (0-0, 7.71) vs. Colby Lewis (1-1, 5.25)

Wednesday: Jered Weaver (4-0, 1.30) vs. Matt Harrison (3-0, 1.23)

The Angels are riding the red-hot arms of Jered Weaver and Dan Haren and come to Texas riding a five-game winning streak. The offense has been solid, but it’s coming from surprising sources: Maicer Izturis is hitting .383, Alberto Callaspo .346 and Howie Kendrick has five home runs. Vernon Wells has raised his average to .148, but still seeks his first home run. (How many years left on that deal?) For the Rangers, their own hot pitcher, Matt Harrison, squares off against Weaver in the series finale. Harrison’s start is especially impressive considering his outings have come against the Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox. Harrison entered this season with 225 major league innings and not much of a track record -- 5.39 ERA, 261 hits, 31 home runs, only 4.9 K’s per nine innings. He’s allowed just 14 hits in 22 innings despite a below-average strikeout rate (5.7). He’s throwing more strikes and getting more ground balls, but I’m not sold on him just yet.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Friday: Jon Lester (1-1, 3.20 ERA) vs. Dan Haren (4-0, 1.16 ERA), Red Sox at Angels

Haren has been absolutely dominant so far, pounding the strike zone, allowing opponents a .164 average and generally looking like the best pitcher in the AL. If there’s been one complaint about Haren over the years it’s that he throws too many strikes, leading to a lot of home runs (31 in 2010, 27 in 2009), So far, he’s allowed just one in 31 innings, and pitching in Angel Stadium will help, as it’s one of the tougher home runs parks in the AL.

THREE SWINGS

1. Watched Jose Contreras close out the Phillies’ 3-2 win over the Marlins for his third save. It wasn’t pretty, as he walked two batters and threw just nine of 22 pitches for strikes, finally getting Omar Infante to ground out sharply to end it. Contreras hasn’t allowed a run in five innings, but I’m still a little skeptical about the Philly bullpen. But … maybe the Phillies won’t need much beyond Contreras, Ryan Madson (five scoreless innings) and Antonio Bastardo (nine K’s in 5 2/3 innings). Philadelphia relievers threw just 421 innings last season, fewest in the NL. No team has pitched fewer than 400 since the 2005 Cardinals threw 397 2/3, but the Phillies are a good bet to do it. That Cardinals team won 100 games and all five starters -- Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan and Matt Morris -- made at least 31 starts.

2. Welcome back, Grady Sizemore. Nice to see Cleveland’s center fielder go 2-for-4 with a home run, double and an RBI in his first game since May 16. The Indians are 11-4 after sweeping the Orioles for their third series sweep already, and it’s worth noting that Shin-Soo Choo (.214/.286/.339) and Carlos Santana (.196/.276/.314) aren’t hitting yet, and they will.

3. I watched the major league debut of Arizona pitcher Josh Collmenter and he had one of the weirdest motions you’ll see. Midway through the windup, as he brings the ball back behind him, he does a little bit of a knee jerk of sorts, leans back a bit, and then comes straight over the top. He’s not really much of a prospect -- Baseball America didn’t rate him as one of Arizona’s top 30 prospects -- but he entered in the 11th inning against the Giants, threw strikes, worked quickly (a lesson for all rookies), retired all six batters he faced and got the win when Arizona scored in the bottom of the 12th. Congrats, Josh.

RANT OF THE WEEK

Right when I start believing in the Brewers … they go out and lose a doubleheader to Jason Marquis and Livan Hernandez, two guys who can’t break 90 with their fastballs (actually, in the case of Livan, he can’t break 85). The Brewers desperately need Corey Hart to return, as the team’s lack of depth is embarrassing. Mark Kotsay? Forty-year-old Craig Counsell? Thirty-three-year-old outfielder Erick Almonte, once hailed as the next Derek Jeter, but now listed at 245 pounds and coming off a two-homer season in Triple-A? Please. This has to be one of the worst benches in the majors, especially for a supposed contender.

PHOTO OF THE DAY