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We drown in numbers and statistics these days, but here's one that sums up the crumbling state of the Boston Red Sox quite eloquently: Following Josh Beckett's implosion on Thursday night, Red Sox starters have now allowed five-plus runs in 14 starts; Nationals starters have done so once.

Here's another way. Fifty-three American League starting pitchers are qualified for the AL ERA title. Here's where Boston's five starters rank:

32. Jon Lester (4.29)
38. Daniel Bard (4.83)
46. Felix Doubront (5.29)
51. Josh Beckett (5.97)
53. Clay Buchholz (9.09)

OK, ERA can be a little misleading early in the season. Here's where those five guys rank among AL starters in strikeout/walk ratio:

27. Beckett
32. Doubront
41. Lester
48. Bard
51. Buchholz

The Red Sox are 12-19 for a lot of reasons: injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford and Andrew Bailey; a slow start from Adrian Gonzalez; a couple bullpen implosions; Bobby Valentine using outfielder Darnell McDonald to pitch in a tie game.

Those are all factors, but despite the injuries on offense, the Red Sox are still second in the AL in runs scored; the bullpen has five losses, but 14 teams have more; and Valentine is more lightning rod than explanation.

No, the responsibility rests with the starting rotation. Bard and Doubront have perhaps predictably been mediocre, but they've actually been improvements over Tim Wakefield and John Lackey, so the blame falls on the supposed big three of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz.

Beckett started in Fenway against Cleveland on Thursday, his first start since April 29 and first since the infamous "he cares more about golfing than pitching" story leaked to the media. Beckett actually had pitched pretty well since his five-homer disaster in his first start, posting a 2.93 ERA over his next four starts. While I'm happy to report that I didn't see any greasy fried chicken stains on his jersey, his evening was yet another May disaster for the Sox.

In the top of the second, with one run already in, Jack Hannahan hit a 2-2 changeup to right field for a two-out home run. Not surprisingly, the Fenway faithful let go with more than a few loud boos. In third inning, Jason Kipnis crushed a 3-2 cutter over the bullpen in right-center. After Asdrubal Cabrera singled, Beckett got ahead of Travis Hafner with two strikes but then threw four consecutive balls. Shin-Soo Choo doubled to right on a 2-0, four-seam fastball to score Cabrera. Michael Brantley fell behind two strikes, then lined a double into the gap in left-center on a 1-2 curveball, scoring two more runs and knocking Beckett from the bump in what would be an 8-3 Indians victory.

You can see the issues here: Even when he got ahead of batters, Beckett was unable to put them away. He used the whole tool box -- changeups, four-seamers, cutters, curveballs; the Indians hit them all. Six of the seven hits off Beckett went for extra bases.

I blurted out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast that Beckett is the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. That's probably unfair to a pitcher who has been good for a lot of years, a guy who had dominant postseason runs in 2003 and 2007 in leading the Marlins and Red Sox to World Series titles. Those playoff performances did inflate his reputation a bit, as his regular-season performances haven't been consistently at that level. He has received Cy Young votes just twice in his career (finishing second in 2007 and ninth in 2011). He hasn't exactly been CC Sabathia when it comes to durability, reaching 200 innings just three times and never topping 215. With the Red Sox, he's had two seasons of ERAs over 5.00.

Maybe 2012 is going to be one of those down years; Red Sox fans who saw Beckett and Lester collapse down the stretch expected leadership from Beckett, not reports on his golf swing.

Speaking of Lester, what has happened to the dominant left-hander of a few seasons ago? In 2009, he averaged 10.0 strikeout per nine innings, but that figure has dipped to 6.0 this season. His walks are up more than one per nine innings since 2009. His velocity is still fine; as Curt Schilling has pointed out, his command isn't, with Lester especially struggling in pitching to the outside corner against right-handed batters. Going back to his final 11 starts of 2011, Lester has a 4.16 ERA and a poor strikeout/walk ratio of 86/50. The stuff is still there, but we're going on 18 starts now of mediocre pitching.

Buchholz is an even bigger disaster, the worst starter in the majors so far. Unable to get the ball down in the zone, Buchholz has been pounded like a punching bag. Opponents are hitting .343 and slugging .613 off him. Essentially, the average hitter against Buchholz is David Ortiz. The Red Sox can't afford to keep sending him out there; he probably has one more start before a demotion to Triple-A or stint on the disabled list is necessary.

Eric Karabell made a good argument on the podcast: the Red Sox were 14-17 a year ago and only a historical collapse prevented them from reaching the playoffs. They're only two games worse now, he would suggest, so rationally they're far from out of it. Eric could also point out that Detroit and Arizona were both 14-17 after 31 games a year ago and won 95 and 94 games, respectively.

Eric is right, of course. The Red Sox aren't dead.

But with a 1-8 record in May and a starting rotation in shambles, they certainly look it.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Stuff ...

• Baseball America has lists of the 10 youngest players in each full-season league. Mariners pitcher Erasmo Ramirez was the youngest player to make a major league roster, with a May 2, 1990 birthdate. Giancarlo Stanton is still one of the 10 youngest players in the National League.
• Walkoff Woodward looks at what happened to Justin Verlander and the Tigers in Wednesday's ninth inning.
• Neftali Feliz used his changeup a lot in his first start and he was pretty awesome.
• Dodger Thoughts author Jon Weisman has a piece in Variety exploring how TV networks can justify bidding billions to broadcast baseball games.
• Tristan Cockcroft has a fun look at early season paces. Yes, small sample size. It's still a fun to read.


• ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski looks at which closers are used most effectively -- ie, in high-leverage situations -- by their managers. Kudos to Mike Scioscia and Bruce Bochy.
• Franklin Rabon examines Dan Uggla's reverse-platoon split. Since 2009, Uggla is slugging nearly 50 points higher against righties.
• Our new Blue Jays blog looks at J.P. Arencibia's pitch-framing abilities. Pitch-framing is sort of the new trendy thing in defensive analysis, a big reason the Rays signed Jose Molina this offseason. Obviously, baseball people have always talked about this, but pitch f/x data allows catchers to be studied in this skill.
• One scout still believes Daniel Bard belongs in the bullpen.
• The Padres recalled Joe Wieland and Insider Eric Karabell looks at whether he can help the Padres (and fantasy owners).
• The Brewers have broken off talks with Zack Greinke about a contract extension.
• Will Freddy Galvis become a good player for the Phillies? Or is he ultimately just a younger version of Wilson Valdez? Michael Baumann ponders the question.
• Danny Duffy had a nice start for the Royals on Tuesday. OK, it was against the A's, but there many positives signs for the young left-hander.
• Jon Shields thinks the Mariners should start playing John Jaso more instead of Miguel Olivo. Jaso has yet to appear in game. The knocks against Olivo? He has trouble catching the ball and getting on base. Otherwise ... he's awesome!
• Nick Faleris looked at Brian Matusz's first start of the season for the Orioles. Remember, this is a guy everyone was calling a future ace after 2010.
• Baseball Prospectus has a list of 10 players who should receive contract extensions.
• Jorge Posada will throw out the first pitch at the Yankees' homer opener on Friday.
• Finally, Miami columnist Dan LeBetard was on ESPN Radio talking about the Ozzie Guillen situation.

Pitching matchups looking forward and back were a popular topic on Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law and I tackled many subjects!

1. First, there’s the Ozzie Guillen situation with the Marlins. Hey, this probably won’t be the last time we’re talking about Guillen off the field.

2. Ian Kinsler and Brandon Phillips each have shiny, new contracts, but which one of them really deserves it?

3. The performances of Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard were very much on my mind from Tuesday night, but what does Law see for these right-handers moving forward?

4. Our emailers want to know the effect managers can have on baseball games, whether Austin Jackson is a good leadoff choice and more! Send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com.

5. We look ahead to what should be a terrific slate of Wednesday games, including Roy Halladay versus Josh Johnson on ESPN2.

Plus, Keith talks about the upcoming draft and which high school and college kids to watch. It’s a packed Wednesday episode of Baseball Today podcast, so download and listen now! Coming Thursday, SweetSpot blogger/editor Dave Schoenfield will join me! Chone Figgins for MVP!

News and notes from around the majors ...

First base: Injury news. The injury bug hits the Mets again as we learned David Wright suffered a fractured pinkie finger on Monday. Adam Rubin of ESPN New York reports that the Mets will determine Friday if Wright has to go on the disabled list. If necessary, Terry Collins would likely move Daniel Murphy to third base and play Justin Turner or prospect Jordany Valdespin at second. Valdespin hit .294/.333/.468 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2011. ... Brandon Phillips landed a big contract and then missed Tuesday's game with a sore hammy. He could miss three or four days. Willie Harris played second and hit leadoff. ... Nationals left fielder Michael Morse is still out indefinitely with his strained lat. He left a minor-league rehab stint, unable to throw the ball from left to shortstop. Veteran Xavier Nady is 2-for-10 in his place. ... Lance Berkman left his game in the eighth inning with a calf injury. Check tomorrow for updates, but if he's out, Matt Carpenter would play first base.

Second base: The Bard's tale. Daniel Bard pitched better than his final line of 5 IP, 8 H, 5 R indicates. He had six K's and just one walk and induced 18 swing-and-misses. Only Josh Beckett had more swings-and-misses in a game last season (20). Basically, Bard got done in by the dreaded BABIP, burned by a few groundballs that got through the infield. Red Sox fans should be encouraged by his start.

Third base: More Moore. Matt Moore made his first start on a cold day in Detroit that featured two different snow flurries. He walked five and struck out four in 6.2 innings, allowing four hits including an Austin Jackson home run in the seventh. Like Yu Darvish's first start, it would be ridiculous to make any conclusions. The kid is going to be great, it's mostly just a matter if he'll throw enough strikes to be great this year.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

Lance Berkman on David Freese: "If you’re looking for your next $200M contract, he’s got a chance. He’s that kind of player." #STLCards

— Anthony Castrovince (@castrovince) April 11, 2012

It was Eric Karabell and Keith Law on Tuesday's Baseball Today, plus a guest appearance from Jerry Ferrara, Yankees fan and "Entourage" actor. The highlights:

1. Carlos Santana signed a long-term deal with the Indians but Keith isn't crazy about deals with catchers, especially those with knee problems.

2. Eric and Keith review Yu Darvish's debut. The first inning was ugly but did he look better after that?

3. Jeff Samardzija was awesome on Sunday, but the boys aren't quite willing to anoint him Cy Young material just yet.

4. Thoughts on Trevor Bauer, the Orioles and Tuesday's action.

5. Jerry isn't worried about the Yankees' slow start, talks about all the sports he watched on Sunday and about his new movie, "Act Like a Man."

All that on more on Tuesday's Baseball Today.

A bit of sarcasm was on display for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law and I had a little fun talking about the great game of baseball!

1. KLaw discusses what he saw from Texas Rangers right-hander Neftali Feliz on Tuesday. Feliz lasted three innings before shoulder soreness forced his exit.

2. Meanwhile, I was able to observe Boston Red Sox right-hander Daniel Bard trying to avoid walks on Tuesday. Another converted reliever, KLaw shares thoughts on how this situation will end up.

3. Ryan Braun isn’t hitting this spring, and obviously the rumor mongers can’t get enough. Of course, Keith and I tell you the truth about Braun.

4. Big trade for the Royals! Big trade! OK, so acquiring Humberto Quintero and Jason Bourgeois doesn’t guarantee the pennant, but we discuss their impact, and the Royals' closing situation.

5. Emails and tweets galore! Among the topics are Mike Matheny’s living arrangements, the awful Houston Astros, sixth starters and Dusty versus Walt in Cincy.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, which includes a funny rant by Mr. Law. Don’t miss it.

If there's one thing we need more of in America, it's eight-pound hamburgers.

So thankfully the Washington Nationals have stepped up to sate our gluttony by introducing the StrasBurger, the Washington Post's Dan Steinberg reports. My favorite part of the news release: The burger will be served on a "large burger bun." Well, I would hope so.

My question: Was Stephen Strasburg consulted on this? Does he approve of being associated with an eight-pound piece of cow flesh? Or are we entering an Albert Pujols situation? I fear there will be repercussions to this burger unveiling.

More links:

• The bloggers at the Capitol Avenue Club react to Chipper Jones' comments that he might not make it through the season.
• Joey Matschulat writes on Mike Napoli's contract situation with the Rangers ... and the lack of an extension or even an apparent discussion.
• The Mariners annually have the most creative promotional commercials. I'm not sure they actually help sell more tickets, but they're fun to watch. The best one this year shows where Justin Smoak gets his bats.
• Chip Buck on the Boston's Sox bullpen situation. The Sox lost Jonathan Papelbon to free agency and Daniel Bard to the rotation, replacing them with Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon. Papelbon and Bard were dominant, both posting WHIPs under 1.00 and combining for 161 strikeouts in 137.1 innings. Papelbon only blew three saves, and didn't lose a game until No. 162, but Bard went 2-9. You can't ignore those nine losses, no matter the other numbers. Here, Bard's OPS allowed in different game situations:Margin greater than 4 runs: .237
  Within 4 runs: .561
  Within 3 runs: .566
  Within 2 runs: .562
  Within 1 run: .653
  Tied: .885
  
  Bard simply wasn't clutch went it mattered most. That's a long-winded way of saying the overall net effect of Bailey and Melancon replacing Papelbon and Bard might not be that severe, assuming those two can come close to the 137 innings the Red Sox got from their top two relievers in 2011 (considering Bailey's health history, that's the bigger question).
• Speaking of bullpens, Ryan Topp of Disciples of Uecker asks, What to expect from the Brewers' pen? Personally, I like Milwaukee's pen as there is a lot of depth behind John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez. The weakness is a lack of a left-hander, a role potentially filled by Zach Braddock or Manny Parra (yes, he's still around).
• Will Jeff Samardzija earn a spot in the Cubs' rotation? So far, so good.
• Brandon Cloud looks at the future of the Rockies -- an examination of all the moves since the Ubaldo Jimenez trade.
• John Bonnes has five storylines to watch for the Twins.
• Who is Tyler Graham? An outfield candidate unlikely to break camp with the Giants, writes Chris Quick. But check out this play he made in center field.
• ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh looks at five relievers being converted to starters, and suggests Chris Sale is the best bet for a successful transition.
• Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has his organizational prospect rankings. Like ESPN Insider Keith Law, he ranks the Padres No. 1. Keith had Tampa Bay No. 2 and Toronto No. 3, while Kevin has Toronto No. 2 and St. Louis No. 3. Kevin has the Rays well down his list at No. 13.

Some excellent work from colleagues Tristan Cockcroft and AJ Mass. These pieces are under the fantasy template but apply to "real" baseball as well.

• Texas Rangers: A closer look at what to expect from Neftali Feliz as he moves from the closer role to the starting rotation.
• Boston Red Sox: Similarly, Daniel Bard will move from the bullpen to the rotation for the Red Sox.
• Kansas City Royals: Can Alex Gordon match his 2011 campaign?
• San Diego Padres: Will this be a breakout season for Cameron Maybin?

You can follow the entire "30 Questions" series here.

As camps open in Arizona and Florida, we put it to the SweetSpot network: Which player from your team are you most excited to watch this season, and why? First up, the answers from the American League.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters


Why Wieters? He's likely the team's best player, and he's the only one I want to watch whenever he's on the field. At the plate it will be interesting to see if he can build on his 22-homer campaign from 2011 while improving in other areas (a higher average and especially OBP would be nice) to potentially take a place as one of baseball's best hitting catchers. Behind the dish, every stolen-base attempt is exciting (he led the AL in nabbing opposing would-be thieves last year). Can he go from being a very good player to a star? If he does, that could be the most exciting part of Baltimore's season. -- Daniel Moroz, Camden Depot

Boston Red Sox: Daniel Bard


Bard is an object of intrigue this season. He was originally drafted as a starter but after an implosion at the low levels of the minors he was shifted to relief and blossomed as one of the best young arms in the game, becoming the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth. Instead, Boston has elected to try the starting gambit again, where Bard could become the 2012 version of Alexi Ogando. He needs to develop his changeup further and there are questions on how his control and endurance will hold up on a transition, but he has front-line potential if all goes well. If not, it's back to the purgatory of middle relief, which may force a trade. His ceiling and the risk of the conversion will make him one of the more intriguing players on the Red Sox to watch. -- Evan Brunell, Fire Brand of the AL

Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale


The one guy who’s really going to be fun to watch this spring is the rail-thin Sale. The lefty’s power slider/fastball mix has him well-equipped to make the jump to the rotation in his age-23 season, and he might be the latest success story to add to pitching coach Don Cooper’s track record for success. The questions revolve around his ability to sustain the workload, but Cooper has already noted Sale will have an innings cap. What shot the Sox have got will rely on their rotation; if Sale breaks through, Kenny Williams’ winter inactivity may not look so bad. -- Christina Kahrl

Cleveland Indians: Ubaldo Jimenez


As a child, part of the excitement of Christmas morning was the mystery of what magical toys Santa left under the tree during the night. Was it what you'd been asking for all year or was there some kind of surprise in store? (Like socks.) That's one of the reasons we're excited to watch Ubaldo Jimenez this season. Which version of Jimenez will be in the Indians' rotation: The 2010 NL Cy Young contender or the inconsistent thrower that Cleveland fans saw in 2011? The Indians could use another ace beyond Justin Masterson. When the Tribe surrendered Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for Jimenez, it was a move that angered many fans and left others cautiously optimistic at best. While an incredible pitching performance isn't the only thing that determines a team's fortunes (see Cliff Lee, 2008), a great year for Jimenez could go a long way in determining the success of the Indians this season. If Jimenez struggles early, already pessimistic and dejected Indians fans may be ready to throw in the towel early. -- Stephanie Liscio and Susan Petrone, It’s Pronounced “Lajaway”

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera


You can take Justin Verlander and his impressive hardware. You can also have Prince Fielder and his nine-year contract. The player I'm most interested in is Miguel Cabrera. Will he play third base all year? How much will his defense (or Fielder) affect his offense? Can he continue his streak of 300/30/100 seasons? Cabrera is human, he's shown that to us in the past, and his new challenges are an intriguing storyline. -- Josh Worn, Walkoff Woodward

Kansas City Royals: Mike Moustakas


As he moved up the organizational ladder, Moose developed the reputation as a player with a learning curve delay: Whenever he moved up a rung, he would start slowly before making adjustments and laying waste to that league’s pitching. He held true to form last summer, struggling in his big-league debut to the point that there were whispers the Royals were considering dropping him back to Triple-A. Instead they opted to give him three days off to work with hitting guru Kevin Seitzer, breaking down his swing. It worked, as he ripped through September. Moustakas is poised to pair with teammate Eric Hosmer to give the Royals a one-two punch in the middle of the lineup they'll need to contend in the AL Central. If Moustakas can build on his September, he has the potential to be a special player in Kansas City for years to come. -- Craig Brown, Royals Authority

Los Angeles Angels: Albert Pujols


As you may have heard, Pujols signed with the Angels this offseason. The team has plenty of exciting players, but Pujols will be the man to watch in 2012. Can he bounce back after the worst season of his career? How will he adjust to the American League? There are plenty of questions about the 32-year-old and his huge contract, but we’ll see many of them answered this season. It should be a fun ride. -- Hudson Belinsky, Halos Daily

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer


In many ways, Joe Mauer's 2011 campaign was emblematic of Minnesota's season as a whole. He was hurt often, he didn't get it done on the field and he drew plenty of criticism from media and fans. The Twins, in their second year at a new stadium and with a record payroll, were a huge disappointment. Mauer, in the first year of a massive new contract, was a big reason why. So now he and the team are coming into 2012 with much to prove. Reports on his health have been encouraging and, as he showed in 2009 when he lifted an otherwise mediocre team to the playoffs with an MVP performance, Mauer can be a difference-maker. Relying on a roster dotted with more question marks than a Riddler costume, the Twins are going to need a few of those. -- Nick Nelson, Nick’s Twins Blog

New York Yankees: Michael Pineda


Ever since the Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee before the 2011 season, GM Brian Cashman has been preaching patience to Yankees fans. That patience finally paid off this January when they dealt top prospect Jesus Montero to the Mariners for Pineda. Ever since, Yankees fans have been impatient for the season to start to get a good look at their new young pitcher because there is more than just this season riding on Pineda's success. If he's a failure, Yankees fans will be crying for years watching Montero smack homers out in Seattle. -- Rob Abruzzese, Bronx Baseball Daily

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes


Cespedes is so blindingly obviously the most exciting aspect of the on-field product in Oakland that I'm tempted to be contrarian and claim that I'm jazzed for Josh Reddick's soft Georgia accent and cannon arm instead. I can't bring myself to it, though, because the raw power that Cespedes (supposedly) carries in his bat as a (reportedly) legit center fielder who is (apparently) ready to play (more or less) right now beckons. It's both what's inside and outside the parentheses that makes Cespedes so compelling. Forget about his range afield; his range of possible outcomes is breathtaking. Early Bobby Bonds and late Bobby Crosby both seem well within reach. And if the most compelling part of Cespedes' season winds up being a chase for the strikeout record in September? Well, my most prized A's possession is a Jack Cust shirt, so that suits me fine. -- Jason Wojciechowski, Beaneball

Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez


Picking anyone else would feel wrong -- Felix is the Mariner to be most excited about in 2012. The King is 6 1/2 seasons deep into his Mariner career and has at very least gotten himself in the conversation with Randy Johnson as the franchise's premier hurler. With a full season of King's Court -- the best thing to happen to Safeco Field since Safeco Field itself -- Hernandez's home starts will remain can't-miss events this summer. -- Jon Shields, Pro Ball NW

Tampa Bay Rays: Joe Maddon


I know Joe Maddon isn’t a player but they make him wear a uniform, so he is the 2012 Ray I am most excited to watch. From my seat, Joe outshines all the stars in the Rays clubhouse by standing in the background. Joe is a mad scientist when it comes to the lineup card, mixing and matching on a daily basis. I am on the edge of my seat waiting to see the creative ways he will use the 25 men in the Rays’ 2012 clubhouse. -- Marquis Heilig, The Ray Area

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish


Darvish is arguably the most exciting and most intriguing new face in the majors right now, and he's a Texas Ranger, which makes him a slam-dunk pick for the most exciting player to watch in Arlington this season. The Rangers bet historically huge money on Darvish and the hope that he can emerge as a true ace, but it's never the best idea to set the expectation bar that high, and I know I'll be more than satisfied with a legitimate No. 2-caliber performance. The promise of so much more, though, and the still mysterious aura that surrounds Darvish ... those qualities make Darvish the most exciting player in a Rangers uniform right now. -- Joey Matschulat, Baseball Time in Arlington

Toronto Blue Jays: Brett Lawrie


The Royals’ Mike Moustakas wasn’t the only highly touted third-base prospect to make his debut in 2011. Lawrie, a 22-year-old hitting machine with soft hands and great bat speed, gave Toronto fans a glimpse of their future at the hot corner. Acquired from the Brewers in a December 2010 deal for Shaun Marcum, Lawrie dealt with fractured bones in each of his hands in 2011, but still managed to compile a .293/.373/.580 line in 43 games at the major league level. His defense still needs some work, but it was his first full season at the position. The members of the Blue Jays brass think they have a keeper at the position. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit

Check out some of the great work from our blog network ...

• Check out Diane's great list at Value Over Replacement Grit on the pitcher who started games with the most different catchers in his career (Frank Tanana and Mike Morgan both started games with 42 different catchers). I like that Tanana worked with Andy Etchebarren, who debuted in 1962, and Todd Hundley, who last played in 2003. The pitcher/catcher combo that started the most games together is Bill Freehan and Mickey Lolich of the '60s/'70s Tigers. They started 324 games together. Here's that list. With the Mark Buehrle-A.J. Pierzynski tandem broken up (159 starts), the active leader combo is Chris Carpenter and Yadier Molina with 155.
• Chip Buck with three big questions for the Red Sox this spring: (1) What to expect from Daniel Bard? (2) Will Kevin Youkilis remain healthy and productive? (3) Will Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney pay dividends in right field? I believe Bard is the big one. While the Rangers had success the past two seasons moving C.J. Wilson and then Alexi Ogando from the bullpen to the rotation, it's a very short list of pitchers who have done this.
• The Orioles got into a recent snafu with the Korean Baseball Organization and Jon Shepherd interviews Korean journalist Yoo Jee-ho about the situation that led to Orioles scouts being banned from South Korea.
• What will the Braves do when Chipper Jones needs a day off? (And he'll probably need about 30 or so of them, even assuming he stays healthy otherwise.)
• For all the excitement about the Nationals, nobody is talking about shortstop Ian Desmond, who could be one of the most important players in the league in 2012. Desmond's OBP doesn't make him a great leadoff man, but is there another option for the Nats?
• Crashburn Alley asks its readers: Which Phillies storyline are you following? (Insert joke here about picking the Phillies to finish in second place.)
• Mets starter Mike Pelfrey has been working on his sinker. Joe Janish believes that while the sinker is important, Pelfrey is at his best when he's locating his off-speed stuff. Mets fans get frustrated with Pelfrey and the inconsistent ERAs from year to year. But he's actually been a pretty consistent pitcher the past four seasons: His walk rate has been between 2.9 and 3.2 per nine innings and his strikeout rate between 4.9 and 5.2. Maybe an improved sinker will help, but I think he is what he is at this point. He doesn't strike out enough hitters to become an elite starter and his ERA, hits and home runs will fluctuate more or less on the randomness that happens with this type of pitcher.
• Oh, about that Travis Hafner-for-A.J. Burnett rumor? Stephanie Liscio of It's Pronounced "Lajaway" says no ... no ... no. After all ... maybe this is the year Hafner stays healthy.
• The Royals have extended Ned Yost's contract and Nick Scott of Royals Authority is pleased with this development.
• Minus Prince Fielder and possibly Ryan Braun for 50 games, Jonathan Lucroy will be even more important to the Brewers.
• The Astros signed ex-Rays outfielder Justin Ruggiano to a minor league deal and he could find himself in Houston's crowded outfield mix.
• Jason Wojciechowski on Yoenis Cespedes and what his signing means for guys like Josh Reddick, Seth Smith, Chris Carter and Daric Barton.
• Joey Matschulat on Roy Oswalt, Koji Uehara and those nasty "Oswalt wants to pitch for the Rangers" rumors.
• Jon Shields looks at the Mariners' starting rotation -- a rotation that may include Kevin Millwood.
• Blake Street Bulletin examines the Rockies' major offseason acquisitions.
• Jon Weisman talks to Dodgers assistant GM De Jon Watson about some of the young Dodgers like Dee Gordon, Nathan Eovaldi, Jerry Sands and the kids in the minors.

Now that we’re waiting for these last few days to pass before pitchers and catchers report, it’s worth remembering that beyond the usual camp fights and reps as players get into regular-season shape, we’ll also see a few players challenged as they never have been: challenged to change positions.

Every club has different motivations for attempting this sort of thing: immediate need, making room for a major free agent or fulfilling a long-term plan for a younger player. What are the 10 most interesting attempted position switches to watch this spring?

1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, from 1B to 3B: Cabrera’s bulk might seem like a major stumbling block to his making a jump to the hot corner now that Prince Fielder is manning first base. Although Cabrera started at the hot corner for the Marlins, he was a regular there in only two full seasons, 2006 and 2007; Baseball Info Solutions graded his defense 27 runs below average across those two seasons.

Tigers skipper Jim Leyland has plenty of experience with making the best of a bad situation at the hot corner. He tolerated Bobby Bonilla’s fielding at third base for the ’97 Marlins despite long exposure to Bonilla’s bad hands and scattershot arm as a Pirate back in the ’80s, for example. But fundamentally, can Cabrera do it? That seems like a stretch, but over a full season, he might not have to. The Tigers can rotate him or Fielder to DH now and again, and Cabrera also has plenty of experience in left field -- another position where the Tigers don’t have to play any one guy regularly.

With Leyland in the dugout, it’s worth keeping in mind that no manager in baseball today is more aggressive when it comes to using defensive replacements -- even if Cabrera acquits himself better than expected, don’t be surprised if Brandon Inge keeps busy as a frequently used substitute.

2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins, from SS to 3B: Another move made to make room for a free agent. The immediate expectation is that an athletic shortstop like HanRam should be more than capable of jumping to third base. Shortstop is supposed to be harder, after all, so the expectation is that Ramirez might go from a questionable glove at short to a defensive asset at third.

However, it’s worth remembering that not all of these moves turn out well. As Michael Humphreys documents in his excellent "Wizardry: Baseball’s All-Time Greatest Fielders Revealed," Chipper Jones was an example of a former shortstop with tremendous athletic ability moved to third, only to deliver initially awful results in his first several seasons. Humphreys goes on to point out that Alex Rodriguez hasn’t become a great or even a good third baseman since starting out as a competent shortstop, and if your memory goes back to the ’70s and ’80s, neither did Toby Harrah.

So Ramirez’s value at third base is no sure thing, and how well he adapts will be a matter of hard work in camp.

3. Neftali Feliz, Rangers, from closer to starter: We’ve been through this before, as Feliz was prepped to start for the Rangers last spring only to wind up back in the bullpen. This time around, with veteran closer Joe Nathan in the fold, the transition should stick. Feliz has consulted with Pedro Martinez on the nature of the challenge of moving to the rotation -- a move Pedro had to make when the Dodgers distrusted his ability to withstand the workload of starting.

In Feliz’s case -- unlike Pedro’s -- his size or stature has never been a stumbling block, and he’s always had the broad assortment of plus stuff you’d associate with a top starter. Between the plus changeup he added in 2008 and the power breaking stuff he hasn’t had to use as often out of the 'pen, he’ll do more than keep people guessing. Because he’ll be entering his age-24 season, the Rangers will be sure to monitor his workload, but every other light is green on this project.

4. Daniel Bard, Red Sox, from reliever to starter: If Feliz’s transition is part of a grand design, Bard’s seems more a matter of immediate need. However, it’s worth remembering that Bard started out as a starting pitcher prospect and a first-round selection. He didn’t really turn the corner with the slider that now complements his 97 mph fastball until he moved to the ’pen in the minors. Will he be able to throw it as effectively a second or third time through a big league lineup? His changeup might wind up becoming the key off-speed pitch in his arsenal that gets him all the way through 90-100 pitches and into the sixth inning.

5. Mark Trumbo, Angels, from 1B to 3B: This hasn’t gotten nearly the same kind of attention that Cabrera’s has in even less time, but that’s because Trumbo’s success is not a critical component to the Angels’ plans the way Cabrera’s is to the Tigers. General manager Jerry Dipoto is adamant that, after he recovers from a stress fracture in his foot, Trumbo’s move off first base to make way for Albert Pujols won’t be to one position but to a superutility role, playing all four corners and DH as Mike Scioscia tries to find ways to squeeze Bobby Abreu, Vernon Wells, Kendrys Morales and Trumbo into the lineup when there are just two lineup slots they can have to themselves.

Even if Trumbo’s healthy, there’s the question of whether he can really make the jump to third. He’s never played there in the minors, let alone the majors, and he was better known as a top pitcher in high school when the Angels drafted him. As experiments go, this seems desperate and might not survive to see the light of Opening Day.

6. Chris Sale, White Sox, from reliever to starter: This move is more like Feliz’s shift to the rotation than Bard’s, because it was anticipated from the day the White Sox drafted him in 2010 that he had the stuff to eventually start. But his arm was good enough to make the majors in a relief role just weeks after his selection. With Mark Buehrle’s defection via free agency, a slot has opened up, so the Sox can proceed with what they’ve always wanted from Sale: a southpaw tower of power capable of pumping pure gas from the mound. Although 2012 hasn’t been a season to look forward to on Chicago’s South Side, watching Sale every fifth day should be something people pay to see.

7. Jayson Werth, Nationals, from RF to CF: This isn’t guaranteed to happen, but it’s a very likely outcome should top prospect Bryce Harper somehow wind up making the team as the starting right fielder. The argument over whether Harper will be ready is one major hurdle, but whether Werth would be able to handle center field over a full season is another.

In baseball history, only two men as tall as Werth’s 6-foot-5 have ever played anything close to every day as a center fielder: Alex Rios of the White Sox over the past two years and the Phillies’ Von Hayes for big chunks of 1984 and 1985. Werth’s listed weight, 220, is heavier than either Rios' now or Hayes' then -- he’s simply a much bigger guy. Drew Stubbs is another big man in center -- he’s 6-foot-4, but also almost 20 pounds lighter. The Braves’ Dale Murphy was famously big for center, but at 6-4 and a listed weight of 210, he was also smaller than Werth.

If Harper makes a case to the Nats to play on Opening Day, could Werth really handle the pounding of racing gap to gap over a full season? If you have your doubts, you’re not alone, especially in light of GM Mike Rizzo’s recent decision to bring back Rick Ankiel (although on a minor league deal).

8. Jim Thome, Phillies, DH to 1B: As Jayson Stark pointed out last month, Thome’s challenge in moving back to playing a position might be remarkable, but he won’t be the only famous forty-something to have spent time at first base. But because he's played all of four games at first base in the past six seasons, concerns about his durability given his extensive track record for injury -- including two DL stints last season -- come to the fore.

However, even with the initial expectation that Thome will be little more than a Sunday starter and regular pinch hitter, you’ve got the open question about how much playing time in left John Mayberry Jr. might have to log, as well as the dubious proposition that Ty Wigginton will hit enough to handle the spot. Given the uncertainty about his lineup, Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel might well be tempted to take a few chances with Thome.

9. Daniel Murphy, Mets, utility to 2B: It remains to be seen how serious the Mets are about attempting to return Murphy to the keystone after he was knocked out with knee injuries -- while playing second base, no less. He has never been able to handle second base as a regular at any level as a pro, having played just 19 games there in the minors. This is a lot like what the team went through with Keith Miller more than 20 years ago. Even with the “Hal McRae rule” to protect second basemen, a basic level of agility is required at second base -- to protect yourself and to move around the bag effectively -- and there’s reason to doubt Murphy has it after injuries to both knees, if he ever had it in the first place.

10. Sean Doolittle, Athletics, 1B to pitcher: Speaking of knee injuries, bum wheels essentially ruined Doolittle’s shot to stick as a position player. The former supplementary first-rounder from the 2007 draft was a two-way star at Virginia in college. Now the A’s are trying to recoup some value from their investment by putting that arm to good use on the mound. He made an initial effort on the mound last season, throwing an inning in rookie ball. You can never know how these things will turn out, but Sergio Santos is the most recent example of a strong-armed player enjoying an overnight success with a move to the mound; A’s fans might have at least this one small chance to daydream.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Some weekend reading for you. What, are you going to watch the Pro Bowl instead?

• Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork has a terrific two-part series on how the Mets got to this point and why it will be difficult for the Wilpons to hang on to the team: Part 1 and Part 2.
• For ESPN Insiders, I hope you didn't miss Sam Miller's mag cover story on how the Angels recruited Albert Pujols.
• Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com unveils his top 100 prospects. He has Matt Moore over Bryce Harper for the No. 1 spot. We all saw Moore dominate the Rangers in his playoff appearances, but I'm not sure you put a pitcher above a position player of Harper's potential; just too much risk for pitchers to break down. Pitchers dominate the top of the list: 12 of his top 20 are pitchers.
• Dave Cameron at FanGraphs has a terrific piece on the evolution of relief pitchers, showing why the trend of relievers pitching less hasn't really helped them pitch better. As Dave writes, "Any improvements in quality of performance by the elite relievers have been offset by the fact that more innings are now being given to inferior arms, so the trade-off has essentially resulted in a change of no real benefit."
• Mike Hindman of Baseball Time in Arlington has a look at Josh Hamilton's injury history and what it may mean for the future.
• Jon Weisman looks at the top 20 Dodger pitching seasons (via ERA+) and how those pitchers fared the following year. Yes, this is about Clayton Kershaw and not Ramon Troncoso.
• Troy Patterson of Fire Brand of the AL writes about Daniel Bard and a reason to be optimistic about Bard's transition to the rotation.
• Bronx Baseball Daily on Michael Pineda and the dreaded so-called Verducci Effect.
• Jon Shepherd runs down the varying accounts of the Korean lefty the Orioles signed. I just like the fact that the words "maximum strength fat guts" turn up. Jon also had a good rundown of the Orioles' roster.
• Stephanie Liscio says it's been a frustrating offseason for Indians fans. I can't say I disagree, but if Grady Sizemore stays healthy, Shin-Soo Choo bounces back, and youngsters Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall develop ... well, this is why there is a thing called hope.
• Royals Authority breaks down Jeff Francoeur. Don't blink, sabermetricians, but maybe Francoeur isn't so horrible anymore.
• Nick Nelson argues that the Tigers haven't locked up the division just because they signed Prince Fielder.
• Here's some advice for raising Cubs fans.
• Another view of the Rockies' offseason. For all the old guys they've brought, the success of the 2012 team will likely rest on the young pitching. I can't disagree with that; in fact, I'd probably argue that the Rockies will be the most difficult team to project this season.
• Bay City Ball talks Giants prospects with John Sickels.
• For you Mariners fans, Larry Stone of the Seattle Times has a transcript of GM Jack Zduriencik's media luncheon from Thursday.

Baseball’s a zero-sum game on the field: Somebody wins, and somebody loses. Off the field, it isn’t always as cut and dried, but when you want to talk about the season’s goat of the year, sometimes it’s a lose-lose proposition: for the free agent who gets big-time money and for the team that signs him.

Welcome to Carl Crawford’s world because, after an ugly 2011 season, he’s the player who gets the unhappy label of our goat of the year. Seen as perhaps the biggest prize of last winter’s free-agent crop, Crawford agreed to a seven-year, $142 million contract with the Red Sox at last year’s winter meetings in Orlando, Fla. His arrival in Boston was part of the reason the Red Sox were overwhelming favorites to win the American League East, the AL pennant and -- for more than a few prognosticators -- the World Series.

None of that happened, and although the Red Sox’s ultimate ignominy was achieved on an epic final day of the season, that was just the last note in a six-month-long sad song for their left fielder. Crawford finished the year hitting a pathetic .255/.289/.405 with the Red Sox, his worst season at the plate since he was a 21-year-old regular with the then-Devil Rays.

This was a season so disappointing that, by the time the Sox lost him for 30 days and 24 games to a strained hamstring at midseason, it was almost a relief. At the time, he was hitting just .243/.275/.384. But even after he returned from the DL, Crawford didn’t hit anything like the Carl Crawford of old, delivering a .267/.304/.428 line thereafter.

Dive into Crawford’s performance, and you can see he was set up for some measure of disappointment from the get-go. Whatever your brand of wins above replacement (bWAR, fWAR or WARP), he had put up a career year at the plate for the Rays in 2010. Considering it was his age-28 season, that was right around when you’d expect a hitter is supposed to deliver better than ever, falling within that age 25-29 sweet spot that sees most players deliver their best seasons.

That breakout led to the big payday, and the equally exaggerated expectations. Per Baseball-Reference.com, the value of his 2010 at the plate with the Rays was 5.6 wins, which is made only more remarkable by the fact that he had never topped 3.2 in any other season across 8½ years in the majors. It couldn’t have been better timed, considering his impending free agency, of course, but what’s a guy supposed to do, say no to $142 million?

Some of the drop might have been associated with the leg injury, of course. And some of it involved his having to hit against the Rays, against whom he struggled in 2011 (.541 OPS) after owning the Red Sox in 2010 (.847). It’s also worth noting that Crawford, a very good fastball hitter, saw a lot fewer fastballs for Boston than he had in Tampa Bay (dropping from 41.4 percent of pitches seen to 39.5 percent). And perhaps you can blame some of this on Crawford’s role. With the Rays, he’d been a star, batting second or third in the order. The Red Sox initially had him up top, but a slow start got him kicked toward the back of the order before the end of April. As much as it’s easy to say a player should just deliver wherever he’s put, you couldn’t blame the guy for wondering about his place on a new team and in a different lineup.

To be fair, Crawford was not solely responsible for the Red Sox’s epic collapse in 2011. He wasn’t the guy on the mound for five late-game losses in September; Daniel Bard was. As bad as Crawford’s 2011 season was, the Red Sox got even worse numbers out of their right fielders (.652 OPS) than they did out of Crawford & Co. in left (.723). To conjure up a collapse as epic as Boston’s, it took a village.

But for all that, it’s Crawford’s lot to be the signature player of a Red Sox team that achieved none of the things foreseen for it before the season. If just one player has to wear the horns as baseball's goat of the year, they belong on Crawford's head.

Dishonorable mention

Again, sticking with players, we can start out with already-mentioned Daniel Bard of the Red Sox because of his September: three blown saves, four losses and 14 runs allowed in 11 innings. It ruined what had been a tremendous season for the setup man.
Adam Dunn, White Sox: Jayson Stark has already done a great job of noting some of the truly ghastly things about the 2011 season of the South Side’s DH. For those of us here in Chicago, it was even worse to have to witness, and added up to the worst season via bWAR among big league hitters, at minus-2.7. When Kenny Williams’ White Sox went “all-in” for 2011, this wasn’t what they expected from the slugger for whom they had shelled out $56 million for four years.
Jeff Mathis, Angels: An easy target because of his putrid season at the plate because a .484 OPS is just not something anybody should carry as a lineup regular and expect to win.

In all of these cases, you have to hope they have better 2012 seasons, not just for the fans of their teams but for their own sake.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

ESPN Insider Keith Law breaks down the Jed Lowrie-Mark Melancon trade here, and I generally agree with his assessment: Lowrie still has upside, although his ability to remain healthy is obviously a question mark.

Melancon, originally acquired by the Astros from the Yankees in the Lance Berkman trade, had a strong season in his first full year in the majors, posting a 2.84 ERA with 20 saves. He was stronger against right-handed batters, allowing a .228 average with a 38/8 strikeout/unintentional walk ratio, versus .243 with a 28/11 strikeout/unintentional walk ratio against lefties. But it's not such a large split that the Red Sox wouldn't be comfortable with him closing games if they move Daniel Bard to the rotation.

Right now, the Boston bullpen lines up something like this, assuming Bard is a starter:

CL Mark Melancon
RHP Alfredo Aceves
RHP Matt Albers
LHP Franklin Morales
RHP Scott Atchison
RHP Bobby Jenks

Other possibilities: Andrew Miller, Felix Doubront, Michael Bowden.

The Red Sox's bullpen was actually fairly strong in 2011 -- well, at least until Bard's late-season collapse and Jonathan Papelbon's blown save in the season finale. Its 3.67 ERA ranked fourth in the AL (behind the Yankees, Angels and Mariners), its strikeout rate ranked third and it allowed the lowest opponents' batting average. The problem, of course, is that Papelbon is gone, Bard may move to the rotation and Aceves may not repeat his strong 2011.

Aceves pitched 93 innings in relief, the most of any reliever in 2011, and just one of two to log 90 innings (Baltimore's Jim Johnson being the other). Will there be a carryover effect? Here's the short list of relievers to throw 90 innings since 2006 and their performance the following season:

Tyler Clippard, 2010 Nationals: 91 IP, 3.07 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. 2011: 88.1 IP, 1.83 ERA, 0.84 WHIP.
Matt Belisle, 2010 Rockies: 92 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. 2011: 72 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP.
Heath Bell, 2007 Padres: 93.2 IP, 2.02 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. 2008: 78 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP.
Saul Rivera, 2007 Nationals: 93 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP. 2008: 84 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.49 WHIP.
Peter Moylan, 2007 Braves: 90 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. 2008: Injured (5.2 IP).
Scott Proctor, 2006 Yankees: 102.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP. 2007: 86.1 IP, 3.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP.
Salomon Torrees, 2006 Pirates: 93.1 IP, 3.28 ERA, 1.46 WHIP. 2007: 52.2 IP, 5.47 ERA, 1.41 WHIP.
Jon Rauch, 2006 Nationals: 91.1 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. 2007: 87.1 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.10 WHIP.
Geoff Geary, 2006 Phillies: 91.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP. 2007: 67.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.44 WHIP.

Certainly, Clippard and Belisle are best-case scenarios here. I don't think Aceves' season was fluke -- he's now pitched 240 innings in the major leagues with a career ERA of 2.93 and opponents' batting line of .213/.287/.341. But when he pitched 84 innings with the Yankees in 2009 (with all but one appearance coming in relief), he spent most of 2010 on the disabled list. With Bobby Jenks' health an issue after back surgery this month, I suspect the Red Sox will still look for at least one more arm to bolster it bullpen depth.

Let's get back to throwing out some good links from around the SweetSpot network ...

• Alex Poterack of Disciples of Uecker has three futures for Ryan Braun.
• Capitol Avenue with thoughts on a potential Drew Stubbs trade to the Braves and a look at the optimal Braves lineup as it now stands.
• First, Ian Kinsler is probably better than you think. He's signed for two more years. But what to do about signing Kinsler to a long-term extension?
• Bobby Valentine announced over the weekend that the Red Sox intend to try Daniel Bard as a starter. Troy Patterson of the Fire Brand blog has some thoughts.
• Our guys at Camden Depot have a great series up on the Orioles' top-25 prospects. Be sure to check it out. They have Dylan Bundy rated ahead of Manny Machado. I'd probably have the position player higher, due to the risky nature of pitching prospects, but both are high-upside talents, maybe top 15 in all of baseball.
• Jon Weisman on the Angels-Dodgers rivalry.
• The Phillies have a tough decision to make on Kyle Kendrick: Is he worth the $3.2 million or so he'd make in arbitration? Sticking with the Phillies, Bill Baer says Freddy Galvis is not the solution at shortstop.
• Mark Heilig thinks the Rays undermined their ability to get value for a starting pitcher by signing Matt Moore now rather than in spring training.
• Joe Janish asks, should the Mets sign Jimmy Rollins? I believe in Ruben Tejada, so I'd spend the money the Mets probably don't have elsewhere.
• The Indians signed Felix Pie and are still rumored to be in on Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham and maybe Derrek Lee.
• Can the Giants live with Brandon Crawford's bat at shortstop if his defense is good enough?
• As Brien Jackson writes, somebody in the Yankees front office must really, really like Freddy Garcia.
• Don't miss the new movie: "Cubbieball."