SweetSpot: Daniel Hudson

Another Tuesday, another chap wrap. Will David Price win the Cy Young? Will Albert Pujols find his groove in L.A.? Who are the favorites for Rookie of the Year? Is Ryan Zimmerman's contract a bad deal for the Nationals?
Ian KennedyTony Medina/Getty ImagesIan Kennedy is 19-4 with a 2.99 ERA and ranks seventh in the NL in strikeouts.
This past weekend the Arizona Diamondbacks celebrated the 10th anniversary of their 2001 World Series championship team -- a team led Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, who combined to win 43 games that season and were the only two pitchers to receive first-place votes for the National League Cy Young Award, which Johnson won with his staggering total of 372 strikeouts. Now a decade later, a new Diamondbacks Desert Duo of Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson is leading Arizona back to the postseason and Kennedy, the NL's first 19-game winner, is worthy of Cy Young consideration.

The Diamondbacks beat the Dodgers 5-4 in 10 innings Tuesday night. Kennedy's first attempt at his 20th win wound up as his first no-decision since June 27, putting his record at 19-4 with a 2.99 ERA as he looks to his next chance for win No. 20 in a home start next week against the Pirates. The 35 combined wins by Kennedy and Hudson is the most in the National League and trails only the Tigers' 37 wins from Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Over his last 13 starts, Kennedy's record is a remarkable 11-1 with a 2.42 ERA. He's 9-0 on the season against the NL West, and the Elias Sports Bureau says, under the NL West's current configuration, only three pitchers have started 9-0 against the rest of the division -- all Diamondbacks: Schilling in 2002, Brandon Webb in 2008 and Kennedy in 2011.

Kennedy certainly isn't flashy but he can be dominant. His 182 strikeouts are seventh in the NL, despite an average fastball release velocity of 90.1 mph, which ranks just 127th among major league starting pitchers. Kennedy wins by pounding the strike zone: 1,728 times so far this season, the fourth-highest total of pitches in the strike zone in all of baseball, behind only Cliff Lee, David Price and Justin Masterson. "He's so good with his fastball that he can pitch strictly off that," his teammate Hudson told me in a text message Tuesday night. "His command to all parts of the strike zone allows him to change eye levels with hitters which then makes his other pitches, which are really good as well, that much better. He's fun to watch."

Kennedy has a good changeup, which he throws about 15 percent of the time, that arrives at an average of 81.1 mph with split-finger action for an effective out pitch. What makes him unique however, is an ability to work up in the strike zone while throwing 70 percent of his fastballs for strikes. Opponents, who hit .268 versus Kennedy's fastball last season, are hitting .231 against the pitch this season while his OPS on the fastball has dropped from .825 to .648. Why do hitters have so much trouble with a 90-mph fastball thrown consistently in the hitting zone? For the answer, I went to Schilling.

"There's a difference between command and control," Schilling said. "Control is the ability to throw strikes, which everybody in the big leagues has to have. Command is the ability to control strikes inside the strike zone and that's a different level and I think he's gotten to where his fastball is multiple pitches for him and if you throw the ball 91 to 93 miles per hour, that can be an incredibly effective pitch if you have other stuff to go with it. He's always had decent secondary stuff, but it's become above-average in my mind because of his fastball command."

Schilling was among the many 2001 Diamondbacks who returned for last weekend's 10th anniversary championship celebration and said the Kennedy/Hudson pairing has helped both pitchers, just as pairing up helped Johnson and himself a decade earlier. "I lived it," Schilling said. "I know what it did for me, it was a huge positive for me. I fed off that. The mentality is, you want the guy to go out ahead of you and throw a two-hit shutout because you're going to go out and throw a one-hit shutout. Early on, I think that they started to get a taste of that and I think as the season has gone on, now that these games are really important, the bar has raised. I think they're feeding off each other at the perfect time for Arizona."

Hudson agreed, saying about Kennedy, "His confidence this year has really rubbed off on me because I see him throw well basically every start and it gives me something to try and out-do or top. Most of the time unsuccessfully but it's still fun to have a friendly competition with him. It's made me a better pitcher." Hudson will attempt to win his 17th game Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium against Los Angeles lefty Clayton Kershaw, who is among Kennedy's chief Cy Young competitors.

Kennedy certainly shouldn't be considered the Cy Young favorite. However, with he and Hudson leading the way, Arizona has won 18 of 21 games since Aug. 23 to run away with the NL West. Now as Arizona gets ready for a postseason run, this latest Diamondbacks Desert Duo may tap into the Johnson/Schilling mojo from a decade earlier for a return engagement in the World Series.

Follow Steve Berthiaume on Twitter @SBerthiaumeESPN.

Twitterview with Daniel Hudson

September, 8, 2011
9/08/11
6:49
PM ET
 Daniel HudsonAP Photo/Gene J. PuskarDaniel Hudson is 15-9 with a 3.53 ERA through his first 29 starts.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are winning the NL West. After going 65-97 to finish 27 games behind the San Francisco Giants last season, the D-backs have already won 82 games this season and entering Thursday held a healthy seven-game lead over the defending World Series champs. Arizona's pitching has been critical to its success and Daniel Hudson has been an instrumental part of that equation.

Hudson was a fifth-round pick of the Chicago White Sox in 2008 out of Old Dominion University. Traded by Chicago to Arizona at the July deadline last season, Hudson immediately flourished in the desert, going 7-1 with the Diamondbacks with a 1.69 ERA while allowing just 51 hits in 79.2 innings. This season, Hudson and teammate Ian Kennedy have led the Diamondbacks' rotation on the march to an NL West title for Arizona, where there's a pool in the outfield and several unique slogans that have served as rallying cries.

With Hudson scheduled to pitch Friday against the Padres, one day before the Diamondbacks honor the 10-year anniversary of their 2001 World Series championship team that featured Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, Hudson joined me for an interview via Twitter. As many of his fans followed, we had this conversation. It's the Daniel Hudson Twitterview, in 140 characters or fewer.

Designated Twitter logo

SB: #DBacks won 65 games last year & were 27 back of #SFGiants. Now AZ has won 82 games & leads by 7. What happened?
DH: I think a change of attitude instilled by our great coaching staff and everyone counting us out in spring training.
SB: Counted out in spring training? Was that a sore spot for the team?
DH: absolutely! We had a lot of new faces in spring and everyone picked us to finish last again, so our motto was "why not us?"

SB: What is it like to play for Kirk Gibson?
DH: it's great. His grittiness and feisty attitude has definitely rubbed off on us. We always expect to comeback and win.
SB: Seriously, does anyone in the #DBacks clubhouse ever do the fist-pump imitation of him rounding bases after '88 W.S. HR?
DH: haha, I've never seen anyone do it, but JJ (Putz) and Kelly Johnson made ties for a roadtrip with him from his gillete commercial picture of him sitting in a bath tub talking about how good the deodorant is! Players and coaches all wore them.

SB: #SFGiants had "fearthebeard" last yr. #DBacks have #FearTheRedBeard this yr. Can you explain for East Coast fans?
DH: Ian Kennedy has brown hair, but somehow his beard is all red, not a brown hair in it. 18 wins and his beard got a following.
SB: So his genetic oddity has become a #DBacks rallying cry? With 18 wins it must be working, right?
DH: lol not so much us, but the fans seem to like it. #feartheredbeard signs are hilarious! and yes. When you win 18 games, you have to point at something for your success, and it's definitely the #redbeard lol

[+] Enlarge
Ian Kennedy
G Fiume/Getty ImagesFear the red beard: Ian Kennedy is in the Cy Young picture with his 18-4 record and 2.96 ERA.
SB: You were 7-1 with #DBacks last year. You're 15-9 so far this year. Why has AZ been such a good fit for you?
DH: coming over with a clean slate and no expectations was a big part of it. I got called up by sox to replace (Jake) Peavy. Tough shoes to fill, and I struggled and got away from who I was as a pitcher. Getting "me" back was big for me and dbacks staff.

SB: You got your first MLB hit & RBI in #DBacks debut last August. Is that why your Twitter avatar is a pic of you hitting?
DH: I was lucky enough to have a dbacks photographer snap a pic as I hit my first HR. So I thought I'd like to show it off haha
SB: It could work as a visualization technique for you: see your avatar pic in your head every time you step into the box!
DH: yep! As long as I don't have to bunt ... I want to swing it!

SB: You played Little League baseball with Justin Upton in Virginia. Who was the better player back then?
DH: Justin. I was (still am) really slow, confined to playing 1B. But I gave him some protection in the lineup!
SB: Did you pitch in Little League -- or just rake as a slow-footed 1B type?
DH: I did both. Usually would pitch until I hit a pitch count limit, then would go play first for a few games.

SB: You were a star pitcher at Old Dominion University. So was Justin Verlander. What's the deal with ODU baseball?
DH: go monarchs! Great baseball tradition. Some really good teams in the 80s and 90s. I wasn't highly recruited out of high school and wanted to go somewhere where I would pitch from day one, and odu gave me that opportunity and I ran with it.

SB: Dan, your Twitter flow was heavy Fantasy Football this week. Is that a big deal among the #DBacks?
DH: Yeah I think a lot of teams do it. It's a lot of fun to go through the draft and whatnot with your friends and teammates and I wanted to brag a little bit because I think my team is awesome!
SB: So you're a Mel Kiper Jr, Jr? Fantasy Football does seem big in MLB clubhouses. Why is that?
DH: I think a lot of guys are football fans, and it's a good way to stay in touch and competitive with teammates in offseason

SB: You play in a #DBacks ballpark that has a pool in the outfield. What's the strangest thing you've ever seen out there?
DH: love the pool! Wasn't there but saw the guy make the diving catch into it during the HR derby. That was awesome!
SB: Do players ever actually hang out in that pool before the park opens or is it just a gimmick for the fans?
DH: for the fans. But the brewers bullpen guys jumped in after conditioning in the outfield one day. It's hot with the roof open

SB: I saw you tweeted a picture of a giant snake at your feet while you were golfing last week. Some kind of omen?
DH: definitely a good omen. Just a fellow diamondback wishing us good luck before we played our series in San Fran!!
SB: Good luck #DBacks from here as well, Dan. Thanks for your time & thanks to all of you fans who followed the Dan Hudson Twitterview!
DH: no problem! Thanks for the questions and thanks to everyone for following!! #GoDbacks #FearTheRedBeard #winthewest

You can follow Diamondbacks pitcher Dan Hudson on Twitter: @DHuddy41.

You can follow Baseball Tonight's Steve Berthiaume on Twitter: @SBerthiaumeESPN.

The last time the Arizona Diamondbacks played a game this big was the 2007 National League Championship Series. That was a young Arizona team (Eric Byrnes was the only starting position player older than 30), and it appeared to have a bright future. It didn’t happen, mostly because Brandon Webb got hurt and the rest of that staff was put together with Scotch tape and thumbtacks.

But some of the youngsters from that team are still around, including Justin Upton, Chris Young and Miguel Montero, all rookies in ’07.

With the D-backs facing Tim Lincecum and the Giants on Tuesday with a chance to move into a first-place tie, it seemed like the perfect game for a running diary, full of witty observations, fantastical statistical nuggets and an appreciation that the one constant through all the years, readers, has been baseball.

Prelude
Tim Lincecum is 7-2 with a 2.42 ERA in his career against the Diamondbacks. He’s 9-8 with a 2.78 ERA this season. He’s 4-2 with a 1.43 ERA over his past seven starts. The broadcasters mention that plate umpire Larry Vanover is known for his wide strike zone. As for Daniel Hudson, I don’t see Barry Bonds, Will Clark and Willie Mays in the Giants' lineup, so I’m going out on a limb and predicting a low-scoring game.

First inning
Your leadoff hitters in tonight’s titanic battle for NL West leadership: Willie Bloomquist and Cody Ross!

Lincecum’s first pitch: 95 mph. Against the red-hot Upton, he mixes in a 95 mph fastball, an 88 mph fastball/sinker/slider, a slider on the outside corner and then a 3-2 sinking fastball/slider/changeup that Upton swings through. Really, it’s impossible to pinpoint Lincecum’s pitches. They dash and dart, he changes speeds, sometimes his sliders move like sinking fastballs and his fastballs like changeups. I think he has about 82 different pitches.

Second inning
Lincecum has a habit of kind of staring off into space between pitches. He doesn’t really take a deep breath or rub up the ball, just kind of stares blankly, not exactly the look of concentration you see with Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but more like the 6-year-old who has been watching TV for three straight hours without blinking. So what is Lincecum thinking when he does this?

A. Should I get a haircut tomorrow?
B. There are many reasons to love San Francisco, but I really love the pastries.
C. I still don’t understand that article I read on Huffington Post today titled, “Do Frozen Meals Free Us or Turn Us Into Barbarians?” What was that about? I’ll ask.
D. Do you think Bochy would notice if I skipped Friday’s game and instead went to “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”?

Fourth inning
Lincecum has walked two guys but hasn’t allowed a hit as Upton leads off the fourth. About time to start giving a little MVP love and consideration to Upton, don’t you think? He entered the game hitting .302/.379/.546 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 21 home runs, a league-leading 30 doubles and 65 RBIs. Good defense in right. He’s at least in the discussion. And since he doesn’t turn 24 until Aug. 25, it won’t be the last time.

Oh, Lincecum goes 1-2-3 in the fourth.

Hudson is also sailing along. He gets Cody Ross to ground out leading off the inning. Ross described Hudson as a “long-armer,” which means Hudson brings the ball way behind, almost slinging it like a javelin. But Ross says he hides the ball well, which is a big reason Hudson pitches “above” his stuff and a guy scouts projected as a No. 4 starter has turned into a solid No. 2.

However, Jeff Keppinger and Carlos Beltran single and Pablo Sandoval doubles in one run to give the Giants a 1-0 lead and put runners at second and third with one out and Aubrey Huff up. Kirk Gibson elects to play the infield back. Considering the way Lincecum has been pitching, I’d be tempted to bring the infield in. Hudson gets Huff to bounce back to the mound and strikes out Nate Schierholtz. Giants fans immediately scream, “PLAY BRANDON BELT!”

Fifth inning
Ryan Roberts singles to break up the no-hitter, bringing up Arizona rookie first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. It’s his second game after getting recalled from the minors, where he hit .306/.435/.626 at Double-A, with 30 home runs and an 82/92 walk/strikeout ratio. Keith Law reported on Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast that scouts aren’t in love with Goldschmidt, despite the big-time power, citing his lack of bat speed.

I’d read that Goldschmidt was a big dude, and I was expecting a left tackle. He’s big, but trim, looking much more athletic than the picture painted. He has a very wide stance and starts with the bat almost lying on his back shoulder, then lifts it up as the pitcher starts his delivery. As Mark Grace says on the Arizona TV broadcast, the wide stance resembles Jeff Bagwell’s, although not quite as exaggerated.

Lincecum delivers a 2-1 fastball, low and in. Goldschmidt destroys it. The bat speed was OK on that pitch. The ball lands 20 rows deep in the left-field seats, a huge blast Grace can only laugh at in joy. Goldschmidt’s first major league homer. It was a gutsy move by Arizona to give him the first-base job while skipping Triple-A. He could be one of the biggest keys in this race. For Lincecum, it was only the second home run he’s allowed in his past 10 starts.

Eighth inning
Lincecum is done after seven. One mistake, and he left trailing 2-1, allowing just three hits, three walks and striking out eight. But he threw 112 pitches, as his command was off just a little. Ramon Ramirez comes on, and Justin Upton later treats an 88 mph hanging slider with little kindness, depositing it into the left-field seats for a two-run homer and 4-1 lead for Arizona. Upton is only a few days older than Domonic Brown and Goldschmidt. He’s younger than Pedro Alvarez, Desmond Jennings and Josh Reddick.

Hudson, meanwhile, cruises through the eighth, giving up a leadoff single to Aaron Rowand, but then retiring Belt, Ross and Keppinger. He lowers his ERA to 3.67 and goes 1-for-2 at the plate to raise his batting average to .326.

Ninth inning
The D-backs tack on two more runs in the top of the ninth. Bryan Shaw comes in to pitch for Arizona. Goldschmidt makes a diving stop on a grounder for the first out, a very nice play I’m pretty sure no left tackle would have made. Mark Grace suddenly has a crush on Goldschmidt. Diamondbacks fans will have a crush on Goldschmidt. I might have a crush on Goldschmidt.

The Diamondbacks are tied for first place. And I don’t think they’re going away.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
David OrtizBob DeChiara/US PresswireLook out. Big Papi wants a hug. Brace yourself. Hope Jarrod Saltalamacchia has strong arms.

Reviewing the 2010 deadline

July, 23, 2011
7/23/11
3:00
PM ET
With trade rumors hitting us in full force as the deadline approaches, let's take a look back at some of what happened at the 2010 trade deadline and see how many of those players are making an impact for their new teams.

Cliff Lee traded to the Rangers; Mariners acquired Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson and Josh Lueke
Despite a solid BB/K rate, Smoak continues to struggle with consistency at the big league level. He's still only 24, so there is time for him to improve, but he's not the instant impact bat that the Mariners were hoping for. Both Beavan and Lueke have pitched in spots for the Mariners this season. The Rangers rode Lee’s contributions to the World Series and have since moved on from Smoak seamlessly, relying instead on the likes of postseason hero Mitch Moreland, Michael Young and Mike Napoli.

[+] Enlarge
Cliff Lee
Scott Rovak/US PresswireThe Rangers acquired Cliff Lee in a 2010 deadline deal and rode his arm to a World Series appearance.
Dan Haren traded to the Angels; Diamondbacks received Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs, Patrick Corbin and Rafael Rodriguez
Haren has thrived for the Angels this season, and Saunders has held his own with the surprise contenders in Arizona. However, the big score for the D-Back may not arrive until late next season or 2013, as Skaggs has continued to impress all those who have seen him pitch. Recently, he earned a promotion to Double-A after posting a 3.22 ERA, 2.65 FIP and 3.7 K/BB rate at High-A Visalia in the hitter-friendly California League. Corbin has had his struggles at Double-A, but he has posted an impressive 4.5 K/BB rate and should see the big leagues one day.

Edwin Jackson traded to the White Sox; Diamondbacks received Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg
This move was sort of a head-scratcher at the time, and the way Hudson has pitched for the D’backs ever since confirms that confusion. The Snakes have Hudson under team control through 2016 while Jackson will hit the free-agent market this winter.

Roy Oswalt traded to the Phillies; Astros acquired J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar Oswalt pitched brilliantly for the Phils in the 2010 postseason. However, career-long back problems may have finally caught up to him. On the Astros' side, Happ was plugged right into the rotation, but his struggles with command and allowing the long ball have led to an ERA nearing six. Gose never played a game in the Astros' system as he was flipped to the Blue Jays for first baseman Brett Wallace; the 24-year-old Wallace has been unimpressive in his young major league career, though he does sport an above-average OBP. Villar continues to struggle with strikeouts in the minor leagues.

Lance Berkman traded to the Yankees; Astros received Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes
While Berkman is in the midst of a late-career renaissance with the Cardinals, Melancon has taken over as the Astros' closer with a 2.91 ERA, 3.33 FIP and ground-ball rate of 60 percent. Jimmy Paredes is now in Double-A and continues to steal bases, but he also continues to struggle with his lack of plate discipline.

Matt Capps traded to the Twins; Nationals received Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa
Capps pitched well for the Twins down the stretch in 2010, but his huge regression in strikeout rate has hurt him big-time this season. In the meantime, despite some ups and downs in his first full big-league season, Ramos has established himself as the Nationals' catcher of the now and the immediate future.

Jhonny Peralta traded to the Tigers; Indians received Giovanni Soto
Peralta re-signed with the Tigers last offseason and has been worth every penny of the $5.25M he is making this season. Over the past two seasons, Peralta has improved his contact rate, which has helped to lower his strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the 20-year-old Soto continues to show good strikeout ability at the lower minor-league levels of the Indians' organization.

Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot traded to the Dodgers; Cubs received Blake DeWitt, Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit
Lilly pitched well for the Dodgers down the stretch in 2010, but his issues with the gopher-ball have hurt him this season. With the Dodger's financial situation in shambles, the three-year $33 million deal Lilly signed last offseason only makes things worse. Overall, this deal has helped no one, though the Dodgers did at least acquire league-average reliever Blake Hawksworth in exchange for Theriot this past offseason.

Octavio Dotel traded to the Dodgers; Pirates acquired James McDonald and Andrew Lambo
After being acquired by Los Angeles, Dotel appeared in 19 games, allowed seven earned runs and was then traded to the Rockies in September. The Pirates landed the high-upside, inconsistent McDonald, who has been once again inconsistent. However, his 4.15 ERA (4.57 FIP) have at least contributed as a back-end rotation piece to the surprising Pirates. Lambo was once a top-end prospect with the Dodgers, but his prospect status is all but gone now. He's hitting .206/.278/.326 between Double- and Triple-A this season.

Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel traded to the Braves; Royals received Tim Collins, Jesse Chavez and Gregor Blanco
Both Farnsworth and Ankiel moved on from the Braves in the offseason, and Blanco was traded to the Nationals this past May. Collins made the Royals out of spring training and has continued to prove that he can miss bats (24.3 percent whiff rate), but his control has really tailed off at the big-league level. Collins is only 21 years old, so his future may still be as a consistent late-inning reliever someday.

Charlie Saponara writes for SweetSpot blog, "Fire Brand of the AL." You can find all of his writing adventures by following on Twitter.
Baseball fans are more hyped up this time of year than a bunch of 6-year-olds chewing down an endless supply of Skittles.

If your team is a contender, you hope your general manager can find that missing piece of the puzzle (but not give away anything of value). If your team is out of it, you hope your general manager can make a move for the future. You're buzzed on trade rumors and prospects.

But how many of those prospects actually turn into stars?

I did a quick search of the best players in baseball to see how many were once acquired at the trade deadline while prospects. I looked at 124 hitters and 70 pitchers -- any players with 5.0 or more WAR (wins above replacement) from Baseball-Reference.com.
  • Shin-Soo Choo, Indians. Acquired in 2006 from the Mariners for Ben Broussard. Baseball America's No. 51 prospect before 2005 (and Seattle's No. 7 prospect entering 2006), Choo was hitting .323/.394/.499 at Triple-A Tacoma.
  • Ben Zobrist, Rays. Acquired in 2006 (with Mitch Talbot) from Astros for Aubrey Huff. Never rated as a prospect, but was hitting .327/.434/.473 at Double-A, although he was 25.
  • Nelson Cruz, Rangers. Acquired in 2006 (with Carlos Lee) from Brewers for Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix. The Brewers were already Cruz's third organization. Like Zobrist, he was 25 but was hitting .302 with 20 home runs at Triple-A.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians. Acquired in 2006 from the Mariners for Eduardo Perez. This trade actually happened in late June, before the Choo trade. Not a good summer for former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi. Cabrera was Seattle's No. 6 prospect entering the season and was hitting .236 at Triple-A. BUT ... he had skipped Double-A and was just 20 years old. An unbelievably bad deal considering Perez was nothing more than a platoon first baseman/DH. (He hit .195 with one homer for the Mariners and then retired.)
  • Michael Young, Rangers. Acquired in 2000 from the Blue Jays for Esteban Loaiza. Young was 23, playing second base in Double-A and hitting .275/.340/.426. He certainly wouldn't have projected as a future seven-time All-Star.
  • Elvis Andrus, Rangers. Part of the haul in 2007 from the Braves for Mark Teixeira, he was Baseball America's No. 65 prospect before the season, and would be No. 19 before the 2008 season.
  • Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks. Acquired in 2010 from the White Sox for Edwin Jackson. BA's No. 66 prospect before 2010, he had made five big league starts when traded.
  • Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips. The Indians acquired Lee and Phillips and Grady Sizemore from the Expos for Bartolo Colon in 2002, although they eventually traded Phillips to the Reds for Jeff Stevens.

So that's nine out of 214 players -- about 4 percent. We could also include Carlos Santana, Neftali Feliz and Wilson Ramos, who haven't been around long but I would argue are among the top 214 players in baseball. You could also include Justin Masterson, although he was already an established major leaguer when traded for Victor Martinez.

For the sake of comparison, by my count 89 of the 214 players are still with the team that originally drafted or signed them -- 42 percent. (Note that a few other top players were acquired in the offseason while still prospects, including Jair Jurrjens and Michael Bourn.)

The important note from above is that several of the guys who did develop were older guys -- Zobrist and Cruz were 25; Choo and Young were 23. Hudson was considered more of a fifth-starter type. None of those guys were elite prospects when dealt. Certainly, Andrus, Santana and Feliz would fit that billing of "elite" when traded. Santana had come out of nowhere for the Dodgers in 2008 to put up monster numbers at Class A. Cleveland stole him for Casey Blake. Andrus and Feliz were very young but scouts loved the raw talent.

Add it all up and as you see all the names being moved over the next 10 days, the odds are that most of the prospects traded won't develop into anything.

But it's that lure and small chance of acquiring the next Choo or Santana that makes this time of year tastier than a bag of Skittles.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Mark Simon and Steve Berthiaume hosted Friday's Baseball Today podcast . Was there news to talk about? Yes, there was. Mark and Steve discuss:

1. Jim Riggleman's resignation. Steve talked with Jim on "Baseball Tonight." Mark and Steve also discuss Davey Johnson as the possible interim replacement.

2. Roy Oswalt's bad back forced him to leave the Phillies game early. What's the potential impact here?

3. Jose Bautista moves to third, Josh Hamilton's blue eyes, Daniel Hudson and the staying power of the Diamondbacks.

4. Steve discusses his SweetSpot piece about the Rays. Yes, Rays fans are not too happy with him.

5. Curt Schilling's idea for a new pitching stat.

Plus: Excellent emails, J.D. Drew, radar guns for infielders, weekend preview and much more, all on Friday's Baseball Today podcast!

Daniel Hudson: The new Matt Cain?

April, 16, 2011
4/16/11
3:36
PM ET
Friday night in the Arizona desert, Matt Cain outdueled Daniel Hudson in a 5-2 San Francisco win. Cain pitched six-plus innings, allowing four hits, two walks, hitting a batter, and striking out just three in allowing just one run. Hudson was dinged for a three-run homer in the first inning by Pablo Sandoval, but otherwise pitched well: six innings, six hits, three walks, 10 strikeouts, five runs allowed (four earned).

[+] Enlarge
Hudson
AP Photo/Paul ConnorsDaniel Hudson is 0-3 but has allowed just 15 hits in 19 innings with a 23/8 SO/BB ratio.
Cain has been a source of frustration for some sabermetrically inclined observers, and he's usually one of the first outliers to which those who disagree with advanced metrics point. It's not completely unwarranted either; his career ERA is 0.42 lower than his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and 0.93 lower than his xFIP (which replaces a pitcher's home run rate with the league average). Since his career now totals 1,100 major-league innings (does it seem like Cain has been around that long?), it's possible that Cain possesses a certain talent that does make him somewhat of an outlier.

Hudson was drafted in the fifth round of the 2008 June draft by the White Sox and sent to Arizona last July for Edwin Jackson. Hudson tore through the minor leagues in under two years, going from A-ball to the majors in 2009, and he posted a strikeout rate of 10.6 per nine innings along with a 4.18 K/BB ratio. While some scouts questioned his future given his flyball tendencies, Hudson has had continued success since reaching the major leagues, posting a 2.84 career ERA that is 0.70 lower than his FIP and 1.06 lower than his xFIP.

Hudson's brief career forms an interesting comparison with Cain. Consider the following table showing their career averages in some slightly-advanced pitching metrics:




Hudson doesn't pitch half his games in the cavern that Cain does, so it's likely the home run rates will increase, and the .249 BABIP (that is also .206 with runners in scoring position) will go up. And while Cain has more pitches in his repertoire than Hudson does, Hudson generates swings-and-misses on almost eight percent of his fastballs, well above the major-league average of six percent (Cain is just above six percent).

Cain isn't a perfect comparison for Hudson, but could serve as a model for watching the latter's career unfold; hopefully, Hudson wouldn't create the same stir among the baseball nerds that Cain has.

Just the same, if Hudson can continue down the path he's started, he could provide a type of justification for what Cain's been doing the last five seasons. And then we could never hear about Matt Cain's xFIP ever again.

Dan Hennessey writes the Baseballin' on a Budget blog for the SweetSpot network. You can also follow him on Twitter.

Early returns on two 'challenge' trades

August, 19, 2010
8/19/10
2:56
PM ET
Tommy Rancel on the Diamondbacks' latest find:
    In terms of real-life analysis, the thought process behind the Edwin Jackson for Dan Hudson trade was to give up a year and a half of Jackson for six seasons of Hudson. Jackson is a talented pitcher, but he's on his fifth major league team before the age of 27. He's a nice piece at the back end of the rotation, but will make more than $8 million next season. Hudson may not have the raw ability that Jackson does, but he will earn around the league minimum for the next few seasons, likely for similar production.

    After spending the 2008 season at the rookie level of the minor leagues, Hudson blew through all levels of the White Sox system in 2009 - earning a call-up to he majors after starting the year in low-A ball. He began 2010 at Triple-A, where he continued to post fantastic numbers - especially in the strikeout category. In 93.1 innings, he struck out 108 batters while walking just 31.

    Hudson would make three unimpressive starts for the White Sox big club this season before the trade to Arizona. Again, while the move was made with the future in mind, Hudson has provided the Diamondbacks with favorable results in the present.

    --snip--

    After four turns through the Arizona rotation, the 23-year-old right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA. Hudson has struck out an impressive 27 batters in 29.1 innings with the D-Backs, while handing out just four walks.

It's worth mentioning, I think, that Edwin Jackson's been fantastic with the White Sox: 1.35 ERA in three starts, with 24 strikeouts and five walks.

Unfortunately, because of the future costs associated with each pitcher, this trade works for the White Sox only if Jackson's better than Hudson in the near term and Jackson's performance gets the White Sox into the playoffs. Otherwise it's just an awful, awful deal.

That's one example of a "challenge trade": I'll trade you my [position] guy for your [same position] guy." We don't have many examples, but we've got another fine one this season: shortstop Yunel Escobar for shortstop Alex Gonzalez. When the deal was made, the point (from the Braves' perspective) was supposedly addition by subtraction, as the Braves were reportedly disenchanted by Escobar's attitude as much as his slow start this season, statistically.

Since the trade? In 27 games, Escobar's batted .297/.350/.414, right in line with his career numbers. In 31 games, Gonzalez has batted .250/.317/.411, almost exactly in line with his career numbers. They're both good defensive players. The only real difference between them -- leaving aside attitudes, I mean -- is that Gonzalez is six years older and slightly more expensive.

We'll see what happens. But I suspect that in both cases, we'll wind up figuring the teams getting the younger players did better.

Is Edwin Jackson the new Carl Pavano?

July, 30, 2010
7/30/10
2:12
PM ET
Does adding a pitcher with a 5.16 ERA to your rotation ever work?

Sure. One year ago the Twins added Carl Pavano (5.37) to their rotation. He helped them reach the playoffs, pitched seven excellent innings in his postseason start, and today he's 13-6 with a 3.21 ERA.

So, yeah. It does happen.

I'm not convinced that Edwin Jackson is the new Pavano, though. When the Twins traded for him, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 3.83; his ERA was elevated because he'd given up a few extra home runs (and probably hadn't gotten much help from his bullpen). Meanwhile, Edwin Jackson probably deserves his 5.16 ERA. His 1.73 strikeout-to-walk ratio is right in line with his career mark (1.60) and isn't likely to improve upon returning to the American League.

The White Sox presumably are hoping that Jackson's solid 2009 predicts his future better than the rest of his career does. Maybe they're right. He's still only 26, and Chicago's coaching staff has worked wonders with Gavin Floyd.

It seems a strange move, though, doesn't it? Considering Daniel Hudson's youth and talents? Maybe pitching coach Don Cooper has seen something in Hudson's three (!) starts he just didn't like?

MLB Trade Rumors:

    Hudson, 23, rocketed up Chicago's farm system last year with "three solid pitches and natural deception," according to Baseball America. He's spent most of this season in Triple A, posting a 3.47 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 with 13 home runs allowed in 93.3 innings. The D'Backs have to be concerned that their revamped rotation is built around young flyball pitchers, with Ian Kennedy and Joe Saunders already in the fold. The D'Backs will have Hudson under team control through 2016 even if they keep him in the Majors the rest of the season.


I'm not a big Saunders fan, but if you're trying to rebuild your rotation, Kennedy and Hudson are a pretty good start.
BACK TO TOP