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OK, maybe I was wrong.

This is what will be difficult about facing the Phillies this year: You actually scratch a run across Roy Halladay, stretch your lead to four runs against their shaky bullpen, and then suffer a devastating loss in the bottom of the ninth.

Your reward? Cliff Lee the next day.

With Halladay and Lee going back-to-back in the rotation, opponents will often go consecutive games without receiving a free pass. The two combined to walk just 48 hitters last season, which sounds impressive, but even more so when I tell you Nolan Ryan once walked 44 batters in a month.

Needless to say, those two have a little different approach to pitching than Ryan, who would never, ever gave in to a hitter. It was max effort on every pitch. Halladay and Lee, on the other hand, often seem to be on cruise control. They are so smooth and calm with their deliveries like they’re having a catch in the backyard, but they never want to help the opponent with a free base. Lee had a quote last year that he’d like to go an entire season without walking anybody. I think he was serious.

Lee throws harder than he used to. When he came up with Cleveland, he threw 87-88. In his Cy Young season of 2008, his fastball averaged 90.5 mph. The past two seasons, he’s increased that velocity to a tick over 91. At the same time, his control has improved, from 4.1 BB/9 as a rookie to an otherwordly 0.8 in 2010 -- giving him the second-best strikeout/walk ratio of any starting pitcher in history (behind only Bret Saberhagen in 1994).

If there’s one flaw in his approach, it’s maybe that he throws too many strikes. He allowed the most hits in the majors in 2009 (245) and has been about a hit-an-inning guy throughout his career. It will also be interesting to see how he does in Philly. Remember that in his first stint there he didn’t really dominate until the postseason; he posted a 3.39 ERA in 12 starts and gave up seven home runs in 79 2/3 innings. His 3.98 ERA with the Rangers in 15 starts was attributed to a balky back, but The Ballpark in Arlington, like Citizens Bank Park, is much more prone to allowing home runs than Cleveland or Seattle.

That’s nitpicking. I think Lee is poised to have an excellent year, maybe getting his ERA under 3.00 for the second time in his career. And no doubt give the Phillies the strong likelihood of two starters finishing in the top-five of the Cy Young voting. That’s actually happened several times in the wild-card era (note: we’re counting relievers):

2009 Cardinals: Chris Carpenter (2), Adam Wainwright (3)
2007 Indians: CC Sabathia (1), Fausto Carmona (4)
2005 Astros: Roger Clemens (3), Roy Oswalt (4)
2004 Red Sox: Curt Schilling (2), Pedro Martinez (4)
2004 Astros: Clemens (1), Oswalt (3)
2002 Red Sox: Martinez (2), Derek Lowe (3)
2002 Diamondbacks: Randy Johnson (1), Schilling (2)
2001 Mariners: Freddy Garcia (3), Jamie Moyer (4)
2001 Diamondbacks: Johnson (1), Schilling (2)
2000 Braves: Tom Glavine (2), Greg Maddux (3)
1999 Astros: Mike Hampton (2), Jose Lima (4)
1998 Yankees: David Wells (3), David Cone (4)
1998 Braves: Maddux and John Smoltz (4)
1997 Braves: Maddux (2), Denny Neagle (3)
1995 Braves: Maddux (1), Glavine (3)
1995 Dodgers: Hideo Nomo (4), Ramon Martinez (5)

Of course, what makes the Phillies so tough isn’t their top two, but their top four. In 2010, Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Cole Hamels each posted an ERA below 3.50 and a strikeout rate of 7.0 per nine innings or better. No team has ever done that before.

So good luck to the Astros. Maybe they can scratch a run off Lee on Saturday.

And then get to face Oswalt on Sunday.

• Ubaldo Jimenez allowed just seven runs over his first 11 starts in 2010. His 2011 debut was a little ugly, with six runs in six innings, including home runs to Miguel Montero and Justin Upton. Most worrisome (yes, it's Opening Day, so all worry even if we know it's just one game), he had just one strikeout. Jimenez had one two-strikeout game last season, but lasted just two innings that game. His strikeout low when pitching at least five innings was three.
• You gotta love Arthur Rhodes, still going strong at 41. He just struck out Carl Crawford (third time Friday he's struck out), helping Texas hold its 5-4 lead through the top of the seventh. Now what I'd really like to see is Ron Washington use Neftali Feliz for a two-inning save. C'mon, Ron, you can do it.
• Kevin Youkilis has never exactly been built like Nomar Garciaparra, but he looks a tad bit, shall we say, heavy. Just wondering how that will affect his range at third base.
• Adrian Gonzalez: Meet your 2011 American League RBI leader.
• E-mail from my friend Philbrick (Red Sox fan): "The following is being said at the Cask 'N Flagon right now: Forget Triple-A, Jon Lester should be released or put out of his misery Barbaro-style. It's over. The Red Sox aren't even getting the wild card. Who's good in college? Because Boston is getting the No. 1 pick this year."
• The Pirates scored 587 runs last season, fewest in the NL. They were eighth in walks, but 14th in home runs and last in batting average. In theory, the lineup looks better than 16th ... but it's the same primary crew as last year, other than Lyle Overbay. One reason for their problem: their pitchers were horrible, hitting just .090 with six RBIs combined.
• Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano: That would have been great in 2007 (105 combined home runs), but not sure how good they'll be in 2011.
• If you can't say anything nice ... Carlos Santana is good. Very good. Enjoy him, Indians fans, because it may be a rough season otherwise.
• Not to overreact to one game, but the middle of the White Sox order has a chance to mash a lot of home runs. The Cell may be the best home run park in the majors, so I expect Adam Dunn to top 40 again, after hitting 38 each of the past two seasons.

Sorry, Brandon Lyon, but that was absolutely brutal.

And Brad Mills: I don't care if he's your "closer," when you give up five consecutive line drives ... maybe you don't leave him in to give up a sixth.

Final suggestion: Maybe your closer shouldn't throw 89 mph.

(Joe Sheehan made a great point on Twitter before the fury was unleashed: Why not use a lefty to face Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard at the start of the inning? Instead, Mills let Howard hit against a righty, which should never happen in the late innings of a close game. The Astros have only one lefty in the bullpen, Fernando Abad, but he should have been used for Howard.

Anyway, terrific comeback by the Phillies. Nothing better than a rally like that on Opening Day.

And we certainly have a theme developing after seven games: Closer continues to be the most overrated position in the game. C'mon, managers, start using your pens in the most efficient way possible, as opposed to assigning predetermined roles that you'll stick to even if your guy is serving up batting practice.

• Give the Astros credit for one thing: They managed to make Roy Halladay work a bit. Even though they didn't draw any walks, Halladay had thrown 101 pitches through six innings. Should Charlie Manuel have hit for Halladay with one out and nobody on base? He probably would have pitched just one more inning, as managers are going to be conservative with pitch counts on Opening Day, even with a horse like Doc. On the other hand, Halladay pitched six or fewer innings just four times in 2010 (his shortest stint was 5 2/3), so I'm bit surprised he got the hook. Let's put it this way: the odds of Pete Orr starting a one-out rally are probably less than David Herndon igniting an opponent's rally.
• Speaking of ... Herndon? Danys Baez? Antonio Bastardo? Luckily for the Phillies, their bullpen threw the fewest innings in the NL last season.
• That's a bad Astros lineup. They were 15th in the NL in runs scored last season and they're going to be down there again. Carlos Lee had a .291 OBP in 2010 and he's hitting cleanup.
• David Price makes his first Opening Day start for the Rays. I would have guessed more pitchers would have achieved the following, but he becomes only the 13th pitcher to start an All-Star Game, a postseason game and a season opener before turning 25. The list (from ESPN Stats and Information):
  
  Tom Glavine
  Roger Clemens
  Bret Saberhagen
  Dwight Gooden
  Fernando Valenzuela
  Vida Blue
  Tom Seaver
  Don Drysdale
  Denny McLain
  Whitey Ford
  Robin Roberts
  Lefty Gomez
  
  Not bad company.

All for now. We'll check back in later.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Only 2,424 games left in the regular season ... (and, yes, I mean that in a good way).

A quick tour of stuff to pay attention to today:

1. You couldn't ask for an easier opponent for Roy Halladay to set the tone for Philly's fab rotation than the Astros, a team that finished 15th in the NL in runs in 2010. Halladay allowed four runs in two starts against Houston last season. I predict fewer than that today.

2. Terry Francona isn't messing around. He's starting Mike Cameron in right field instead of J.D. Drew. Why? Because Rangers starter C.J. Wilson destroyed lefties a year ago (.144/.224/.176).

3. Speaking of Wilson, he has as much on him as any pitcher in the majors. Can he prove his transition from the bullpen in 2010 wasn't a fluke?

4. Ubaldo Jimenez takes on the Diamondbacks. Will he start out again like he's Bob Gibson circa 1968?

5. Mets-Marlins should be fun with Josh Johnson going for Florida. He spent spring training trying to refine his changeup. Hard to believe he can get any better than last season. (Oh, former Mets GM Omar Minaya believes the Mets will be better than people think. Of course, he has no idea how bad I think they'll be.)

6. David Price faces the Orioles, which gives us a chance to check out Tampa's revamped bullpen and Baltimore's new lineup with Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee. Price allowed one run in two starts against the O's last season.

7. Chad Billingsley starts for the Dodgers after signing his big contract extension. Other than Clayton Kershaw's dominant outing, the good news for the Dodgers on Opening Day was Matt Kemp drawing three walks. He'd never done that before. Considering plate discipline has been an issue, let's see if this is a sudden improvement in his approach.

8. Miguel Tejada. After a shaky spring training and a crucial error on Opening Day, Giants fans are already worried about shortstop. The backups are Mike Fontenot and Mark DeRosa, so there isn't really a good in-house option if Tejada falters.

9. Cubs manager Mike Quade. Apparently he rode the train to Wrigley the past couple of days and went unrecognized. Something tells me Lou or Dusty never did that.

10. Justin Morneau. He's in the starting lineup and let's hope he's fully recovered and as good as ever.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Baseball can be a game for the young.

Jason Heyward, so impressive as a 20-year-old rookie last year, is now a year older and maybe a year scarier. Like in 2010, he homered in his first at-bat of the season, and there’s no denying his flair for the dramatic.

Baseball can be a game for the old.

Chipper Jones is 38, turns 39 later in April and is coming off knee surgery. He looked great in spring training and went 2-for-4 on Opening Day with a hustle double, and we see that the skills of the 23-year-old rookie who helped the Braves win a World Series so many years ago are still hanging around despite the scars and the cruelties of age.

Ask Miguel Tejada about that.

He’s been a terrific player, an All-Star, a five-time .300 hitter and an MVP. But he’s 36 now, his bat is slowing and many people don’t think he has the range to play shortstop anymore. The Giants took a chance, signing him to replace the departed Juan Uribe. Reports from spring training weren’t good. He threw away a ground ball in the sixth inning Thursday, leading to an unearned run that helped the Dodgers win 2-1. Was it just one bad throw? Is he too old? His legs might not have Chipper’s scars, but they’re still the legs of somebody who has played more than 2,000 major league games, clocking in 150-plus games year after year.

Brandon Belt has played one major league game. He hopes for 2,000 more.

Belt hit .352 in the minor leagues last year, but many believed he should have begun this year in Triple-A, service time and future salary savings and whatnot. The Giants figured, “Hey, this is one of our best 25 guys; let’s play the kid.” He got an infield single his first time up and then came up in the ninth inning, two outs, down one run, a chance to maybe pull off a little Jason Heyward flair.

Jonathan Broxton, he of the 99 mph fastball, was on the mound. My notes went like this:

Breaking ball for strike
90 mph slider, just outside, 1-1
Fouls off slider on outside corner, tough pitch, 1-2
(Orel Hershiser, on TV, says throw fastball out of the zone, see if he chases)
Fastball just away ... Belt takes it (good eye)
Slider at knees, fouls it away
Slider, down and in, barely fouls off, just in front
(Hershiser says the kid has timed the breaking ball)
97 mph fastball, fouled off
Broxton then saws him off, soft liner to third for final out

As the saying goes, it was a good at-bat. Except in the major leagues, good isn’t always good enough.

Opening Day is always a reminder of the churning clock in baseball. Do the old guys have anything left? Do the new guys have what it takes?

Tim Lincecum was once one of the young phenoms. He’s now a grizzled veteran of 26, with two Cy Young awards and now a World Series title under his belt.

Clayton Kershaw just turned 23; he’s ready to bust out and become the next great Dodgers pitcher, following in a long line of storied starters.

And Brandon Belt? The Giants think he can play. I think he can play. Last year, everything the Giants did worked out, a perfect blend of youth, experience and luck (always a little luck in baseball). They called up Buster Posey, and he became an instant star. They picked up veteran Pat Burrell, and he had two great months. They think he has something left and brought him back. They brought in Tejada. We’ll see.

Belt will undoubtedly be thinking of that final at-bat more than that first base hit. Tejada would probably tell the rook to shake it off.

After all, we have 161 more games to play.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

1. Should the Brewers panic about John Axford? I think they should be nervous. He was legit last season, with 11.8 K's per nine, but he may have been a little lucky by allowing just one home run. His career minor league BB/9 rate was 6.0, which he cut to 4.2 in the majors. If some of that wildness returns, then hitters can sit on the fastball, like Ramon Hernandez did.

2. I really don't like when managers use their No. 4 or 5 reliever in the bottom of the ninth (or extra innings) and save their closer if they take the lead. What if Chad Qualls or Pat Neshek blows that game and you never get to Heath Bell? Use Bell first and then the other guys.

3. Ryan Franklin has skirted a fine line for years as a closer without dominating stuff. The flyballs stayed in the park in 2009 when he allowed two home runs and posted a 1.92 ERA. They flew out more frequently in 2008 (10 home runs) and 2010 (seven home runs) and his ERA was a run-and-a-half higher. I'd be a little nervous about him.

4. The Angels' bullpen had some shaky moments as well. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. Fernando Rodney is hardly a dominant closer and on paper there isn't much depth beyond Kevin Jepsen and Hisanori Takahashi.

5. Albert Pujols. Three GIDP. He's now worth only $299,999,999.

6. Lots of empty seats in Yankee Stadium Thursday, especially behind home plate. No surprise. Padres-Cardinals in the 11th inning ... and the stadium is half empty. Surprising.

7. Jon Jay: Welcome to TLR's doghouse.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Opening Day means everything, it means nothing. Ten random thoughts so far:

1. Curtis Granderson with a nice opener for the Yankees, especially for a guy who was questionable with an oblique (as they would say in football). He's hitting eighth. Remind me again why didn't I pick the Yankees to make the playoffs?

2. Jason Heyward hitting sixth for the Braves: Ridiculous. You don't bat your best hitter sixth, that I know.

3. Livan Hernandez, one of the ultimate survivors in baseball history. He has more career innings pitched than Pedro Martinez.

4. I heart Joey Votto.

5. Ryan Braun was a popular MVP candidate in our SweetSpot poll. I won't disagree.

6. The Angels don't know if Peter Bourjos will hit, but he can run them down in center field. Angels have a long history of great defensive center fielder -- Gary Pettis (maybe the best non-Andruw Jones CFer of the past 25 years), Devon White (who was traded to the Blue Jays for Junior Felix and Luis Sojo ... ugh), Jim Edmonds and Darin Erstad. I have to do a post on that some time: Which team has the best history of defensive stars at one position?

7. The Tigers should invest $75,000 and hire Miguel Cabrera a personal chef to introduce him to green, leafy vegetables and skim milk.

8. My first Joba Chamberlain mention of 2011 (just for you, Philbrick): If he's "back," that bullpen is scary good.

9. Luke Hochevar starting for the Royals. I wrote about bad Opening Day starters on Wednesday, but I actually sort of, kind of, like him to have a decent season.

10. With all the attention given to Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, nobody has talked much about the Milwaukee bullpen, but it was only 12th in NL in ERA in 2010, and I'm not sure John Axford is for real. As I write this the Reds are down 6-3 but the first three batters reached to start the bottom of the ninth ...

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Craig Kimbrel in for the Braves to close out a 2-0 lead and post the first win of the season.

I like the Atlanta pen and hope Fredi Gonzalez sticks to his stated plan of having Kimbrel and Jonny Venters share closer duties. It gives the Braves a huge tactical advantage -- they can match up Venters against lefties and Kimbrel against righties in the eighth and ninth innings, whichever pitcher fits best. Considering teams don't carry more than five bench players these days, and NL teams have to hold pinch-hitters for the pitchers, it makes it difficult for the opponent to counteract.

Except Gonzalez didn't actually do this. He brought in Venters in the eighth to face three right-handed hitters -- Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman.

And then he brought in Kimbrel in the ninth to face lefties Adam LaRoche and Rick Ankiel.

It didn't matter today. Venters did his job with three groundballs. Kimbrel did his job, striking out Mike Morse with an inside fastball and Ankiel looking with a fastball at the knees. Six up, six down.

Billy Wagner has retired, but the two youngsters (Venters is in his second season, Kimbrel a rookie in his first full season) should pick up the slack. Venters converted to relief in 2010 after lackluster results starting in the minors and became one of the top setup men in the majors as a rookie (83 IP, 1 HR, 1.95 ERA). Kimbrel destroyed hitters in his 20 big league innings, striking out 40. No, that's not a misprint. The Braves will have to see how Venters responds to a heavy workload in 2010 (79 games), but if he holds up I think Atlanta's 1-2 punch at the back of the pen is as good as any in the NL.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

I enjoy watching Justin Verlander pitch. It's not just that his average fastball was second-fastest in the majors last season (behind Ubaldo Jimenez) or that he can still crank it up to 98 in the eighth or ninth inning. He's got that lanky build, kind of a slingshot motion, with great movement on both his fastball and breaking ball, that makes him look unhittable and a unique presence on the mound.

He's an excellent pitcher (he's received Cy Young votes in four of his five seasons), so I don't want this to come out the wrong way, but ... there's a nagging twitch in my brain that says Verlander could be a little better. He hasn't had that monster season that it seems everyone keeps waiting for, that King Felix or Roy Halladay year; he's never had a sub-3.00 ERA, his career ERA is closer to 4.00 than 3.50. He throws strikes, keeps the home runs to a minimum and has the dominant stuff, so we keep waiting.

He had two runners on in the bottom of the sixth, and was approaching 110 pitches. Jim Leyland visited the mound with Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada due up. (That Yankee lineup is a killer with all those switch-hitters.) Verlander gets Swisher looking (he gripes to the ump as he walks to the dugout) and then blows away Posada with a 3-2 high-octane heater.

Maybe this is will be that year.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

The minor leaguers have been sent down, the uniforms washed, the spikes shined, the stadiums cleaned to a shiny new-car gleam. The clouds are hanging low and there are threats of rain and even snow in some cities, but we're playing real baseball. CC Sabathia is facing Justin Verlander, Derek Lowe looks good and the Brewers tagged Edinson Volquez for two home runs in the first inning. It's a happy day.

One of my favorite aspects of Opening Day is its one of the best days of the season for great pitching matchups. The old adage that a No. 1 pitcher is important because he faces the other team's No. 1 all the time just isn't true. After a couple of weeks, everybody's rotation gets out of whack, and we actually end up with very few ace-ace matchups during a season.

I pulled out 25 of the best starters from 2010 and counted up how many times they faced other. I pulled out 12 American Leaguers, 12 National Leaguers, plus Dan Haren, who pitched in both leagues. They may not be your 25 best starting pitchers, but they worked for this little study.

(The pitchers: Felix Hernandez, Clay Buchholz, Jered Weaver, Sabathia, Jon Lester, Verlander, John Danks, David Price, Francisco Liriano, Zack Greinke, C.J. Wilson, Cliff Lee, Ubaldo Jimenez, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, Cole Hamels, Johan Santana and Haren.)

The total ace-ace matchups: 87, or about a little more than three per week. Only two days had as many as three ace matchups: Opening Day (Oswalt-Lincecum, Johnson-Santana, Verlander-Greinke) and Aug. 1 (Kershaw-Cain, Verlander-Buchholz, Weaver-Lee).

Weaver faced the most fellow aces -- 14 games, a very high total since only Sabathia and Francisco, with 10 apiece, also reached double figures. Wainwright and Cain only faced three fellow aces all season.

So as we watch Sabathia and Verlander (tied 3-3 in the sixth inning) or Lincecum and Kershaw later Thursday night, enjoy these gems. They don't happen very often.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

The Phillies won 97 games in 2010. That's our starting point. Except their totals of runs scored and runs allowed suggests their true talent was actually that of a 95-win team. So that's our starting point.

1. Roy Oswalt is around for a full season.

Now, I don't think anybody believes Oswalt is going to post a 1.74 ERA like he did after coming over from the Astros. Let's assume he pitches like he did for the full season, with a 2.76 ERA over 211 innings. He had the best WHIP and second-lowest ERA of his career, so it was still a heck of a season. FanGraphs has him at 4.7 WAR (wins above replacement), his most valuable season since 2006. Oswalt essentially replaces the half-season of Jamie Moyer, who was a 0.4 WAR pitcher over 19 starts. Take half of 4.7 (2.4), subtract Moyer's 0.4 and you get about two added wins.

Phillies’ projected win total: 97

2. Cliff Lee in, Jayson Werth out.

The comparison isn't so much Lee versus Werth, but it's important to note that Werth had a lot of value. By FanGraphs' WAR, Lee has been more valuable the past two seasons (13.7 WAR to 9.9 for Werth); using Baseball-Reference, by a much smaller margin, 9.3 to 8.4. Anyway, Lee steps in for Kyle Kendrick, who was a 0.7 WAR pitcher. That's about a six-win gain for the Phillies. But Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown project to about 1.0 WAR, a four-loss total compared to Werth's 2010. Still, overall that's a two-win gain.

Phillies’ projected win total: 99

3. Chase Utley out.

Utley was a 5.2-WAR performer last year, even while missing time. In the past, he's been around an eight-win player. But we're comparing to last year, when he wasn't quite as effective; if he's out until the All-Star break, we're talking about 90 games, meaning he'll play about 60 -- or about half as much as last year. So that's about 2.5 fewer wins. Wilson Valdez is pretty close to the definition of a replacement-level player, maybe a little better with his good glove. We'll take away two wins altogether.

Phillies’ projected win total: 97

4. Decline from Carlos Ruiz and Raul Ibanez.

Ruiz had a career year with a .400 OBP and .847 OPS. He was about two wins better than 2009. He may hit better than he did in 2009, but isn’t going to post a .400 OBP again. We'll subtract one win. Ibanez has aged remarkably well, but he is a year older and a year slower in the field. I'm taking away another win.

Phillies’ projected win total: 95

5. Jimmy Rollins is healthy and will play better.

Rollins played 88 games and hit .243 AVG/.320 OBP/.374 SLG. The issue isn't that he had a bad 2010, but that he also had a bad 2009 (.250/.296/.423). We'll assume the Phillies get more value from Rollins, but he isn’t the guy who won the 2007 NL MVP anymore.

Phillies’ projected win total: 96

6. Bullpen issues.

Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Jose Contreras were all very good last year. Now Lidge is out for an indefinite period of time. Collectively, it was unlikely they were going to be as good as 2010 anyway. The rest of the ’pen is extremely thin. I'm taking away two wins, which could be conservative.

Phillies’ projected win total: 94

So we're at 94 wins, and that's assuming Placido Polanco (35 years old, hyperextended elbow in spring training), Shane Victorino (30 years old, OPS dropped 47 points in 2010), Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay all perform like last season.

Except one other note: The National League, on paper, looks tougher. The Braves -- who won 91 games last season -- are younger, added Dan Uggla, have Jason Heyward with a year under his belt and a deep rotation. The Marlins will get full seasons from Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison and strengthened their bullpen, and Hanley Ramirez should be better. The Mets could be a disaster, but can things really be any worse than last year? The Brewers vastly improved their rotation, the Cubs may be better and the Giants could be stronger with full seasons from Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, plus the addition of heralded rookie Brandon Belt. On paper, only the Padres and Cardinals look weaker than 2010.

I think that means a couple of additional losses for the Phillies. The league should be tougher.

That bumps us down to 92 wins.

Now, look ... there is a more optimistic view here: Howard could be better, Rollins could turn back the clock and hit better, even Halladay could be more dominating. Blanton could be inspired by rotation-mania and have a career year. Maybe the bullpen will be fine. Utley returns sooner than expected and plays great. It could be a 105-win team, maybe a 110-win team in a dream scenario.

Dreams do happen. But what if we factor in other possibilities: that Oswalt probably won't be quite as good as 2010. That Ibanez and Polanco, given their ages, are injury risks and/or bets to fall off the table. That Utley could miss the entire season in a worst-case scenario. That Hamels could repeat his 2009, when he had a 4.32 ERA. That one of the starters could be injured.

I think some of that will happen. Which is why I have the Phillies winning 90 games, losing the NL East to the Braves by a couple games, battling the Giants and Rockies for the wild card, and losing a playoff tiebreaker to the Giants as Tim Lincecum outduels Halladay 1-0, with Brandon Belt's fifth-inning home run putting the Giants back in the postseason.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Many of you play fantasy baseball and may find the following post fun while the rest of you may find it, as Crash Davis might say, self-indulgent crap.

Tuesday night I took part in an auction draft with the likes of Eric Karabell, Tristan Cockroft, Chris Harris and a bunch of others from the games department and ESPN.com. Matt Lawrence has won this league the past two years, which is akin to the Rays beating out the Yankees and Red Sox twice in a row -- a pretty amazing accomplishment since some of these guys make a living doing this stuff. Anyway, I somehow finished fourth last year thanks to team MVPs Joey Votto, Angel Pagan and Mat Latos.

The league is an 18-team non-keeper auction league, traditional 5x5 with 23-man rosters, and $260 in fake money to spend. Albert Pujols was the second player off the board at $49, Hanley Ramirez went for $44 and Roy Halladay was the top pitcher at $38. Here's how my draft went (special thanks auctioneer extraordinaire Paul Augeri, who managed to slip in some well-timed jabs while keeping the draft running smoothly):

1. 2B Robinson Cano, $39: I rarely spend over $30 on a single player, preferring to aim for depth over superstars, but with middle infield looking weak this year, I had a goal to get one of the big guys. If Cano repeats his 2010 MVP-caliber campaign, I'll be happy.

2. 1B Adrian Gonzalez, $42: I passed on Votto at $39 (which hurt), but surprised myself by spitting out "forty-two" for Gonzalez. I did want to land a slugging first baseman and Gonzalez should pile up a ton of RBIs in the middle of that Red Sox lineup. The risky part here is I spent $81 for four-category guys, since neither one runs much.

3. C Buster Posey, $24: A few dollars too high, perhaps, but I love getting offense out of catcher. Posey has looked great this spring, not that spring stats matter.

4. 3B Chipper Jones, $10: After spending early, I had to sit quiet for a spell. Obviously a lot of risk here with Chipper's age and health, but I didn't overpay. For the most part, however, I wanted to stay away from the injury risks (especially pitchers) since I got burned with Grady Sizemore last year.

5. P John Danks, $16: Solid, consistent, durable. There would end up being some good bargains later on with pitchers, so this ended up being few dollars too high, but I like him.

6. OF Shin-Soo Choo, $29: After we took a break, I decided there were two guys I wanted: Choo (because I needed a five-category outfielder ... well, actually I needed any outfielder and a lot of the big names were gone) and Jered Weaver, the 2010 AL strikeout leader. Sure enough, two of the first guys called after the break were Choo and Weaver.

7. P Frank Francisco, $7: The early closers like Mariano Rivera and Joakim Soria had gone for around $20, and there was a crazy run on the second-line guys like Brandon Lyon, and they went nearly as high (Lyon for $16, Craig Kimbrel for $17, Kevin Gregg for $16). I couldn't force myself to overpay for those, and held out hope one of the remaining guys would fall. Francisco, if healthy, should be the closer for the Jays.

8. P Jered Weaver, $23: He had a quiet spectacular season, similar to King Felix's, right down to the 13-12 W-L record. Price was OK, although CC Sabathia and Ubaldo Jimenez had gone for the same number.

9. P Clay Buchhholz, $15: Sat on my hands a long time. Wanted to get one more good starter and I was surprised to get Buchholz at this price. No, he won't post a 2.33 ERA, but I expect his strikeouts to improve and he'll win a lot of games with that offense.

10. P Colby Lewis, $10: This was a mistake. I threw Lewis out at $10 and nobody else bid. That's because pitchers of his level were starting to go in the $7-$9 range. I guess nobody expects him to repeat his fantastic 2010 numbers. Maybe I'll get the last laugh.

11. MI Brian Roberts, $10: Another healthy risk, but I'm starting to get desperate for stolen bases by now and I don't have a lot of money left. Let him run, Buck!

12. P Rafael Soriano, $3: The Yankees are pretty protective of Rivera (only 60 innings pitched last year), so I think Soriano will get some save opportunities and could sneak in 7-8 wins as well.

13. OF Nyjer Morgan, $2: By this point, I had $45 left for 13 players. And still didn't have much speed. So, no, I don't feel good about this pick, but maybe Morgan can pick up 25 steals in a fourth outfielder role.

14. UT Luke Scott, $6: In our league, Scott only qualified as a DH, so I had to slot him in the utility position for now. But he'll be playing left field for the Orioles and become OF-eligible after a couple weeks. Anyway, he was 14th in the majors in OPS in 2010. Too bad OPS isn't one of our categories.

15. OF Alfonso Soriano, $8: He's no longer a 40/40 guy. Or a 30/30 guy. Or even a 20/20 guy. I guess that's why he only cost $8.

16. P Ryan Madson, $6: More dumpster diving for saves. Madson (or maybe Jose Contreras) will start as Phillies closer with Brad Lidge. Still, I'd rather pay $13 for Francisco and Madson than $16 for Kevin Gregg (no offense to whomever took Gregg; saves makes us all do crazy things).

17. C Ramon Hernandez, $2: A lot of teams running out of money by now, so instead of waiting for a $1 catcher, I took a $2 catcher.

18. P Mike Adams, $2: This gives me four relievers among my eight pitchers so far, which is probably one too many. I can always sit on Adams on my bench and hope he becomes the closer if the Padres trades Heath Bell.

19. OF Jeff Francoeur, $1: I may have waited too long to fill out my outfield. But if you think about it (attempt at self-defense here): 18 teams times five outfield positions equals at least 90 outfielders getting drafted. Somebody was going to Frenchy.

20. SS Yuniesky Betancourt, $2: Yuck. But at least defense doesn't matter.

21. OF Rick Ankiel, $1: The Nationals' starting center fielder ... and now No. 1 in my heart as long as he stays healthy, hits 25 home runs and drives in 70.

22. P Dallas Braden, $1: Yes, I'll take the starter with a 1.15 WHIP and please pass the mustard.

23. 1B/3B Brandon Belt, $1: I sat for an hour keeping my first-third slot open, hoping nobody would bid on Belt. By now, only a few owners were left filling their rosters, so Belt was mine, all mine. I may end up writing a lot on Brandon Belt this year. Just warning you.

Bench player draft: UT Hideki Matsui, 3B Brent Morel, P Jeremy Guthrie, OF Milton Bradley, IF Brendan Ryan, OF Matt Young. Once Scott qualifies for the outfield, I can slide Matsui into the utility slot. I probably should have taken another pitcher instead of Ryan. Young could end up getting a lot center field action in Atlanta if Nate McLouth struggles and he can run a bit.

Final assessment: I like my team, but I think everybody does the day after the draft. Stolen bases are a concern, so I may have to swing a deal there at some point. I'm not going score high in saves, but hopefully I can scrounge enough together to not finish near their bottom. Otherwise, I think the offense is pretty solid, especially if Chipper and Roberts stay healthy. The starting pitchers are all good-WHIP, solid-ERA guys who will strike out some hitters and have good health histories.

I also landed a bunch of guys who are just fun to watch -- Cano, Gonzalez, Choo, Posey, Chipper, Danks, Weaver, Braden, even Frenchy ... I love watching all those guys.

I will not profess, however, to enjoying watching Yuniesky Betancourt play baseball.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

The Dodgers apparently do have some spare change in their pockets, because they signed Chad Billingsley to a three-year contract extension through 2014, with a club option for 2015.

If the option is exercised, the deal is worth $46 million -- $11.5 million per season -- a good deal for the Dodgers to secure the services of a quality right-hander who slots in nicely as the No. 2 starter behind ace Clayton Kershaw.

The best thing about Billingsley is his reliability: He's one of just 33 pitchers to make at least 30 starts each of the past three seasons, and of those 33 only Felix Hernandez was younger. Of the 43 pitchers to make at least 90 starts over that span, he's 21st in ERA+ and 28th in innings pitched. His career high in innings is 200 in 2008, so the main thing keeping him from becoming a top-20 starter is increasing his workload into the 220-inning range. The Dodgers did push him a little more at times last season (four starts of 120-plus pitches) so it will be interesting to see if Don Mattingly believes Billingsley has the stamina to pitch deeper into games. (Data from Baseball-Reference.com.)

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In other Dodger news, Andre Ethier didn't back off his comments suggesting this could be his last season in L.A. Jon Weisman over at Dodger Thoughts wrote about this and pointed out Ethier is just the fifth Los Angeles Dodgers player to record three straight seasons with an OPS+ of 130 or greater.

There's no doubt Ethier is a big-time masher (well, at least against right-handers), but I'm not sure he's worth a big extension like Billingsley. For one thing, Ethier is 29, so he's already reached his peak. Two, his troubles against lefties (.247/.311/.370 career) are problematic. Finally, he's a lousy right fielder, negating some of his hitting value. All the defensive metrics out there rate him as one of the worst outfielders in the game. As good as he is with the stick, I'd be hesitant about signing him for more than $10-11 million per season. (Although Ethier is being a bit overdramatic when stating he could be nontendered after this season.)

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Last week the Kansas City Royals announced Luke Hochevar as their Opening Day starter, which certainly made for a happy day for the Hochevar family, but considering his career 5.60 ERA probably didn’t send Royals fans flocking to purchase 20-game plans.

I’ll be honest: I love hearing the official announcements of all the first-game starters. Why? Because I heard about Luke Hochevar and it sent me searching for the most improbable Opening Day starters of the past decade.

10. David Wells, Red Sox, 2005

Wells, of course, had a long and successful career, but how did he end up drawing the first start following Boston’s historic 2004 World Series title, considering he wasn’t on that team? Well, Pedro Martinez signed with the Mets, Derek Lowe left for the Dodgers, Curt Schilling had an injured ankle that meant he wasn’t ready and Terry Francona simply decided to give the ball to Boomer (against the Yankees, no less) rather than holdovers Tim Wakefield or Bronson Arroyo.

9. Carl Pavano, Yankees, 2007

Pavano hadn’t pitched in 643 days when he drew the start. Why? Chien-Ming Wang had pulled a hamstring, Andy Pettitte was battling back spasms and Mike Mussina had pitched too late in spring training. So it was Pavano drawing the start, “the same Pavano whose many ailments have included a bruised buttocks,” as the New York Times heralded. Pavano started the game, started again seven days later … and that was it for his 2007 campaign.

8. Jimmy Haynes, Reds, 2003

Haynes was a hotshot prospect coming up through the Orioles system but like a lot of pitching prospects of that era melted under the barrage of longballs. He drifted to Oakland, Milwaukee and finally Cincinnati, where he put together a superficially good 15-10 season in 2002, thus drawing the 2003 opener. He really wasn’t that good in ’02: 210 hits allowed in 196 innings, a 126/81 strikeout/walk ratio and 1.48 WHIP. He went 2-12 with a 6.30 ERA in 18 starts in ’03.

7. Runelvys Hernandez, Royals, 2003

Hernandez was known as Fat Elvys for his ample body mass. He had a decent rookie season in 2002, with a 4.36 ERA in 12 starts, and was really the only option for the Royals, since Paul Byrd, their only good starter, had signed with Atlanta. Despite Fat Elvys drawing the opener and Darrell May eventually leading the club with 10 victories, the Royals had a surprising 83-79 record in 2003, their only winning season since 1994.

6. Ryan Drese, Rangers, 2005

Drese drew the start after going 14-10 with a 4.20 ERA in 2004. Under Rangers standards of that time, that was a pretty awesome season. Believe it or not, that was the third-best ERA of any Rangers starter from 2000 to 2008 (behind only two seasons by Kenny Rogers). Drese lasted just 12 starts and was released with a 6.46 ERA after getting into an in-game scuffle with catcher Rod Barajas.

5. Mike Maroth, Tigers, 2003

As a rookie in 2002, Maroth had posted a 4.48 ERA in 21 starts and struck out an uninspiring 58 hitters in 128.2 innings. Among pitchers with at least 75 innings, that was the second-lowest strikeout rate in the American League. However, considering the ’02 Tigers had lost 106 games, that was good enough to draw the opener. The Tigers lost that game 3-1 on their way to a 1-17 start and 119 losses -- 21 of them by Maroth.

4. Mark Hendrickson, Marlins, 2008

Hendrickson has lasted nine seasons in the bigs despite a 5.02 career ERA, splitting time as a starter and reliever. He started for Florida even though he’d gone 4-8 with a 5.21 ERA with the Dodgers the previous year. The Marlins didn’t have a lot of good options. Dontrelle Willis had been traded to Detroit and their No. 2 guy in ’07, Scott Olsen, had posted a 5.33 ERA. Rather than go with a youngster, Hendrickson drew the start.

3. Omar Daal, Phillies, 2001

The Phillies have come a long way in a decade. This one was weird since Daal had led the majors with 19 losses in 2000, pitching for Arizona and Philadelphia. The Phillies’ best starters in 2000 had been Randy Wolf and Robert Person. Curt Schilling was traded to Arizona during the season for Daal and others, and it appears the Phillies held Wolf for the home opener in the fourth game of the season.

2. Ron Villone, Pirates, 2002

This one caught my eye since Villone spent most of his career as a reliever. He’d spent 2001 with the Rockies and Astros, starting in just 12 of his 53 appearances, and not pitching very well with a 5.89 ERA. He’d had a 5.43 ERA with the Reds in 2000, mostly as a starter. After losing 100 games in 2001, the Pirates signed him as a free agent and made him their Opening Day starter. He lasted just seven starts before moving back to the bullpen.

1. Dewon Brazelton, Devil Rays, 2005

Easily the worst pitcher on our list, Brazelton had an 8-25 career record with a 6.38 ERA. He’d been the third overall pick in the 2001 draft, taken just after Joe Mauer and Mark Prior, and just ahead of Gavin Floyd and Mark Teixeira. He’d won six games in 2004 with bad peripherals (64/53 strikeout/walk ratio), despite which Lou Piniella gave him the ball on Opening Day. He actually pitched pretty good matched up against Roy Halladay, allowing three runs in 7 1/3 innings with no walks and four strikeouts, but drew the loss. It would be the last good outing of his major league career. He made seven more starts, allowing 31 runs, and then made 12 relief appearances, giving up runs in 11 of them.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

And now a look through the Senior Circuit injury wire.

Chris Coghlan and Mike Stanton, Marlins: Coghlan is suffering from right shoulder tendinitis but is expected to start on Opening Day and will monitor his throwing carefully. Stanton missed much of spring with a quadriceps strain but returned last Friday and hit two home runs.

Mets: Where to begin? Jason Bay could now begin on the DL with a rib-cage discomfort, after missing two games recently with back stiffness. The Mets appear committed to Carlos Beltran as their Opening Day right fielder. He played a minor league game over the weekend and went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts and had a double and triple hit over his head. Backup catcher Ronny Paulino could be headed to the DL with stomach issues. Johan Santana hopes to pitch sometime this season.

Chase Utley, Phillies: You've been following this one. Nobody knows when he'll be ready ... if it all, although he said Monday a goal is to return before the All-Star break.

Brad Lidge, Phillies: Lidge will undergo an MRI today to see if there is structural damage in his shoulder. He'll start on the DL, with Ryan Madson taking over as closer.

Placido Polanco, Phillies: He missed two weeks with a hyperextended elbow but is back and apparently OK.

Adam LaRoche, Nationals: He has a slight tear in his rotator cuff but will rehab and play through it.

Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey, Reds: Cueto has shoulder inflammation and Bailey has shoulder impingement and both begin the season on the DL (along with backup outfielder Fred Lewis, who has a strained oblique). Cueto has resumed playing catch and Bailey is expected to miss two starts. Mike Leake and Sam LeCure join the rotation, although the Reds don't need a fifth starter the first turn through the rotation.

Clint Barmes and Jason Castro, Astros: Castro is out for the season after tearing up his knee (and now catcher J.R. Towles has a balky back). Barmes is out 4-6 weeks and the Astros just acquired Joe Inglett to help with infield depth.

Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, Brewers:: Marcum missed a start with a stiff right shoulder but threw four pain-free innings on Monday. Greinke just started playing catch after suffering a fractured rib playing basketball. A late April return appears to be the goal.

Corey Hart, Brewers: Hart is aiming for a mid-April return from a strained rib-cage muscle. The Brewers just acquired Nyjer Morgan for outfield depth.

Chris Snyder, Pirates: The catcher's bad back will likely land him on the DL, leaving the Pirates with Ryan Doumit and Jason Jaramillo behind the plate.

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: He's out for the season following Tommy John surgery, with Kyle McClellan taking his spot in the rotation.

J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks: A stiff back has limited Putz in Cactus League action, but he's still hoping to be Arizona's closer come Opening Day.

Ian Stewart, Rockies: He's missed time with a right knee sprain and left Monday's game with a tight hamstring, but said he isn't concerned. The Rockies traded for Josh Fields as insurance and have Ty Wigginton and Jose Lopez on the roster.

Jon Garland, Casey Blake and Dioner Navarro, Dodgers: Garland suffered a strained oblique early in spring training and just getting back to building up his arm strength. He'll need a couple weeks. Blake has back inflammation and will begin the season on the DL. Jamey Carroll is around to fill in (or Juan Uribe will shift to third with Carroll playing second). Backup catcher Navarro is also expected to start on the DL with a strained oblique.

Mat Latos, Padres: Latos has bursitis in his right shoulder and heads to the DL. Keep tabs on this one as the Padres will undoubtedly be cautious with the young ace.

Brian Wilson and Cody Ross, Giants: Wilson has a strained oblique and likely to begin on the DL, but could be activated as soon as April 5. Bruce Bochy hasn't announced his backup closer plans. Playoff hero Ross is on the DL with a calf strain and could miss three weeks. Nate Schierholtz could take his place or rookie Brandon Belt could play first base with Aubrey Huff moving to the outfield.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.