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OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Sometimes the analysis is pretty easy.

The Detroit Tigers' lineup on Sunday featured 31-year-old minor league veteran Brad Eldred, who last played regularly in the majors in 2005, hitting fifth. He was followed by Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, Gerald Laird and Danny Worth. You're not going to beat CC Sabathia with that group.

In recent days, Tigers relievers have included Luke Putkonen, Collin Balester, Brayan Villarreal and Thad Weber. Who? Villarreal was the losing pitcher on Friday night versus the New York Yankees.

On Sunday, Max Scherzer walked seven batters in a 6-2 loss to the Yankees. Earlier in the week he got hit around by the Mariners. His ERA is 7.77 and he has yet to pitch more than six innings in any of his five starts.

In 2011, Rick Porcello ranked 84th among 93 qualified pitchers in ERA. Still, many projected a breakout season. Good stuff, they say, good hard sinker. So far, it has been the same Porcello: A lot of hits allowed and not many strikeouts. Two starts ago against the Texas Rangers, he got three outs and gave up 10 hits and nine runs. Against the Seattle Mariners, he gave up five runs and two home runs. He has a 6.45 ERA.

With Doug Fister on the disabled list, rookie Adam Wilk made three starts, losing all three and allowing 21 hits in 11 innings.

Despite batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, No. 2 hitter Brennan Boesch is hitting .231 and has just two walks with 20 strikeouts.

Prince Fielder is finding the pitching a little tougher in the American League. After homering twice against the Boston Red Sox in the second game of the season, he didn't homer again until Sunday.

Left fielder/designated hitter Delmon Young was placed on the restricted list after getting arrested on Friday for allegedly attacking a man in front of a Manhattan hotel and yelling anti-Semitic remarks.

Closer Jose Valverde and setup man Joaquin Benoit hardly look like the dominant duo of a year ago, having allowed 23 hits and 16 walks in 19 innings.

Listening to the Tigers' local radio broadcast the other day, the announcers described the team's energy as listless.

And then there's the defense. Entering Sunday, the Tigers ranked 26th in the majors in defensive runs saved, at 13 runs below average. It's not all Cabrera's fault. He's at minus-2, but Jhonny Peralta is minus-4 at shortstop, Fielder minus-3 at first base, Boesch minus-3 in right field and Raburn minus-2 at second base. The totals should not be surprising as none of them have a reputation for being good defensive players.

That 4-0 start seems like a long time ago to Tigers fans. After starting 9-3, the Tigers have gone 2-8, they've been outscored by 10 runs on the season and their flaws have been exposed like a leaky pipe -- drip, drip, drip, a slow understanding that something isn't right. Detroit doesn't appear to be the super team it looked the first week of the season, but rather a team with little depth in the bullpen, a starting rotation that is relying too heavily on Justin Verlander, poor defense, and a lineup that needs Alex Avila and Peralta to start hitting.

Leyland showed some frustration after Sunday's loss, telling MLB.com that a crucial 2-2 pitch to Derek Jeter that he checked his swing on and was called a ball wasn't a bad call, even though catcher Laird said Scherzer hit his target. "That's all excuse stuff," Leyland said. "That Jeter pitch was a close pitch, but when you're that wild, you're not going to get close pitches."

Instead of escaping the inning, Scherzer allowed two more runs and he ended up throwing 119 pitches without getting out of the fifth inning. "Max is a huge key for us. It has to get better, plain and simple," Leyland said.

Is this a bad time to mention that all 50 ESPN.com voters in our preseason predictions file picked the Tigers to win the AL Central? Obviously, that cast the Tigers as overwhelming favorites to win the division. I was one of those 50, although I hesitated, even once saying on the "Baseball Today" podcast that I was going to pick Cleveland to win the division, before changing my mind when I had to submit my vote.

OK, it's just 22 games and the Tigers are only one game out of first place in the AL Central, a division that has been collectively outscored by 63 runs so far. Rookie lefty Drew Smyly has been impressive. That still makes the Tigers the heavy favorite in this field of five.

If you want other good news, according to our RPI standings, the Tigers have also played the fourth-toughest schedule in the majors so far. The next month presents a schedule that could prove much kinder: Kansas City, the White Sox, at Seattle, at Oakland, at the White Sox, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, at Minnesota. Tigers fans will undoubtedly point out that Detroit was 25-26 as late as May 29 a year ago, and tied for first as late as July 20, before finishing with a 38-16 kick over the final two months. That surge coincided with Fister's arrival from Seattle, as he went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA. Fister threw a bullpen session on Thursday and will make his first rehab start on Wednesday in Toledo, as he returns from a strained rib cage muscle.

Still, the Tigers will need more than Fister's return. They need Scherzer and Porcello to pitch better. They need a reliable arm in the bullpen besides Octavio Dotel. They need Fielder to start slugging. They need the defense to help out the pitchers a little more. Young? Ahh, he's not that good anyway.

In the end, I see an imperfect team, certainly not one that will win 100 games or even 95. I see a good team in a weak division, but a team that could easily finish fifth in the AL East. I see a team that is ripe for a surprise pennant race if one of their division rivals puts it together.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Keith Law and I ended this final full week of April on the Baseball Today podcast with intelligent discussion about American League outfielders in the news, a weekend preview, and much more!

1. Detroit Tigers outfielder Delmon Young is in the news for all the wrong reasons, leading us to wonder if the Tigers will deem his role on the team worth keeping around.

2. One guy that won’t be around for a while is Boston Red Sox outfielder Carl Crawford. Will this guy ever be the same?

3. We’ve seen Phil Humber be very good and very bad in a span of one week. What should we expect moving ahead from him, as well as struggling Miami closer Heath Bell?

4. Our emailers have questions about pitchers using their legs, Justin Smoak’s development and what the Cardinals will do with Lance Lynn.

5. Plenty of good baseball will be played this weekend, and we examine the series we’ll be watching and why pitcher wins don’t always tell a complete story.

So download and listen to Friday’s Baseball Today podcast, check out Sunday night’s Rays-Rangers game on ESPN, and have a great weekend!

Every season there is at least one surprise team. Every season there is at least one major disappointment.

Everyone is calling the Detroit Tigers a lock in the AL Central. But here are 10 reasons the Cleveland Indians can win the AL Central.

1. Shin-Soo Choo's return to form.

Choo was one the best players in baseball in 2009-10, when he hit .300/.397/.486, played good defense and stole 43 bases in 52 attempts. His Baseball-Reference WAR over those two seasons was fifth-best among position players, behind only Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer and Adrian Gonzalez, and just ahead of Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano. In 2011, he had three separate stints on the disabled list and a DUI arrest that left him embarrassed. A national hero in Korea, he felt he had let down his country. Now he's healthy again and capable of returning to the six-win player he was instead of the 1.3-win player of 2011.

2. A full season from Jason Kipnis.

Cleveland second basemen hit a combined .252/.296/.367 in 2011, and that included Kipnis' excellent late-season performance over 150 plate appearances. ZiPS has a conservative projection for Kipnis of .258/.320/.420 with 16 home runs. I think he'll do a little better than that -- Bill James projects .272/.337/.457. Either way, the Indians will get a lot more production from second base.

3. Carlos Santana will be a monster.

In his first full season, Santana hit for power (27 home runs) and drew walks (97, third-most in the AL). What he didn't do was hit for average, a .239 overall mark dragged down by a .201 mark from the left side. Santana also had a .263 average on balls in play, one of the lowest figures among MLB regulars. There's a good chance we'll see better numbers across the board.

4. The rotation is better than you think.

ESPN Insider Dave Cameron touched on this last week , comparing the Cleveland and Detroit rotations. "The Tigers get a few more strikeouts, but the Indians' starters are expected to issue fewer walks and give up fewer home runs, and the overall output for both groups is expected to be quite similar," Dave wrote. Justin Masterson is a legit top-of-the-rotation and starter and Ubaldo Jimenez is just one year removed from a big season with the Rockies.

5. Improved depth.

The Indians ranked ninth in the AL in runs scored a year ago and part of the reason is they were forced to give too many at-bats to nonproductive players -- Austin Kearns, Travis Buck, Orlando Cabrera, Lou Marson & Co. all ate significant chunks of playing time. Now they have Casey Kotchman, Matt LaPorta and Russ Canzler who can play first base or DH if Travis Hafner gets injured. They have Jack Hannahan and Lonnie Chisenhall (with some major league action now under his belt) at third base. Shelley Duncan will be given more time in the outfield. Canzler can play out there if needed. Even if Grady Sizemore doesn't contribute, the offense will be deeper and better. And speaking of the rotation, last year's rotation gave 32 starts to the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona, and he was terrible with a 5.25 ERA. Mitch Talbot had 12 awful starts (6.64 ERA). They have better depth now with Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe, Kevin Slowey, rookie Zach McAllister and Jeanmar Gomez. The bullpen is fairly deep again with Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp and Joe Smith.

6. Justin Verlander won't be as good.

Some of that prediction is just the law of averages. But Verlander also threw 4,301 pitches between the regular season and playoffs, more than any other pitcher. By the postseason, when he struggled, maybe fatigue had set in a bit. Verlander also allowed a .236 average on balls in play. Maybe you're thinking, Sure, but it was Justin Verlander! He's tough to hit. Not disagreeing, but that was one of the 10 lowest figures by a starting pitcher since 1990. Odds are luck did play some factor in that.

7. Prince Fielder is only a minor upgrade.

Remember, Fielder's bat is essentially replacing Victor Martinez's and Martinez had a very good season, hitting .330 with a .380 on-base percentage. In 595 PAs, he created about 93 runs. In 692 PAs with the Brewers, Fielder created about 135 runs. He created 117 runs the year before. Comerica is a little tougher place to hit than Miller Park and Fielder won't be able to feast off the dregs of the NL Central. I'm not saying that Fielder isn't good; of course he it. But he will only be worth an additional 10 to 15 runs over 600 plate appearances compared to what Martinez gave the Tigers last season.

8. Decline from Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila.

These two were lost in the all Verlander and Miguel Cabrera hype but were keys to Detroit's success. Peralta has been all over the place in his career, but considering hi 2009-10 OPS was .696, I'm predicting regression from 2011's .824. Avila had a breakout season and is a better bet to repeat his 2011 numbers but not many catchers produce an .895 OPS year after year.

9. Jose Valverde will not go 49-for-49 in save opportunities.

Valverde was a big reason Detroit exceeded its projected record of 89-73 by six wins. Another key to the Detroit bullpen a year ago was rookie Al Alburquerque, who went 6-1 with a 1.87 ERA in 41 games. He had offseason elbow surgery and isn't expected back until midseason. In fact, Alburquerque and Doug Fister went a combined 14-2. You see that happening again?

10. Delmon Young ... your No. 5 hitter.

Young has had one good season in his career -- 2010 with the Twins. Otherwise, he's a low-OBP guy who eats up a ton of outs, is a terrible left fielder and doesn't really have big-time power (one season over 13 home runs). That 3-4-5 of Cabrera, Fielder and Young is painfully slow. Now, Young may end up serving a lot of time as the DH if Miguel Cabrera does play third base every day. Either way, you're getting some bad defense -- Miggy at third or Young in left field.

So, there you go. Look, I'm not delusional; the Tigers are still the division favorite. The Indians have a lot of ground to make up -- Detroit had a run differential of plus-76 a year ago while Cleveland was minus-56. But if you're looking for a surprise division winner for 2012, Cleveland is my pick.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

This is not the kind of January news we want to read about: Detroit Tigers designated hitter Victor Martinez tore his ACL during offseason workouts and may be lost for the season.

After signing Martinez to a four-year, $50 million contract before the 2011 season, the emergence of Alex Avila meant Martinez spent most of the season as the team's designated hitter as opposed to catching (he started 26 games behind the plate). The Tigers may have overpaid slightly for a DH, but Martinez at least delivered an excellent season, hitting .330/.380/.470, ranking fourth in the AL in batting average and eighth in on-base percentage.

Importantly, the switch-hitting Martinez provided a lefty bat in a lineup that swung too much to the right side with Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Delmon Young, Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez and Ryan Raburn.

If there's good news for the Tigers, there are at least several decent options out there in free agency. One-time Tigers first baseman Carlos Pena could provide a nice alternative, even improving the team's defense if Jim Leyland is willing to shift Cabrera to DH. Pena needs a platoon partner, but did have a .388 OBP and .504 slugging percentage against righties in 2011. Johnny Damon, another ex-Tiger, would also fit in nicely at DH.

The other option is to move Young to his best position -- DH. Getting his glove off the field would be addition by subtraction, and the Tigers could play an outfield of Jackson in center, Brennan Boesch in right, and Raburn and Andy Dirks or Clete Thomas platooning in left. Leyland is one of the best at moving players around the diamond and in and out of the lineup, so if anybody can adapt to a revolving lineup of starters, it's Leyland. Cuban free agent Yoennis Cespedes is another -- more expensive -- possibility. The Tigers have been linked to him from the beginning and they could certainly use more athleticism in the lineup. With Jackson entrenched in center, Cespedes (another right-handed bat) could play right with Boesch handling left.

Still, it's a blow for the Tigers -- although as the Cardinals proved in 2011 with Adam Wainwright, there is no such thing as a lethal blow. I do wonder if this makes it even more likely they'll swing a trade for another starting pitcher, as has been rumored. Matt Garza, anyone?

The Minnesota Twins’ rumored agreement with Jamey Carroll for two years and $7 million is another one of those nice developments (if you’re Jamey Carroll), while simultaneously proving to be yet another cause for frustration for Twins fans still wondering how they got here.

Keep in mind, the Twins haven’t let the position become a scar over the years. After Cristian Guzman left as a free agent, they replaced him with Jason Bartlett, who they’d stolen from the Padres in a minor deal for Brian Buchanan years before. Even before Bartlett got expensive, they bundled him with Matt Garza to get Delmon Young from the Rays. The Twins didn’t effectively replace Bartlett for two years (mucking around with Nick Punto, Orlando Cabrera, Brendan Harris, Adam Everett and more), but finally dealt Carlos Gomez -- one of the keys to the Johan Santana trade -- to get J.J. Hardy. Yet a year later, with Hardy still a year removed from free agency, he was deemed too expensive, and Minnesota dealt him to the Orioles.

In all of these trades -- dealing away Garza plus Bartlett, Gomez, Hardy and Young -- the Twins have ended up on the short end, at least on every scoreboard that doesn’t have a dollar sign on it. Worse yet, they lost talent that other teams have either dealt to better effect or happily retained. And all of those trades belonged to then-general manager Bill Smith. So did signing Tsuyoshi Nishioka and finding he was another Japanese import who couldn’t handle shortstop in the major leagues. And the decision to move Alexi Casilla to short last year, despite a spotty track record there in the minors, without ever spending an entire season at the position? Another Smith move, for which you can blame penury, optimism or madness, whatever your inclination might be.

The question is whether this inaugural move for Terry Ryan’s second (non-consecutive) term running the show in Minny is really that much better, or if it isn’t just the latest patch slapped on a self-inflicted wound. There’s no reason to believe that Carroll can play short adequately on an everyday basis. His Total Zone Fielding Runs or Defensive Runs Saved marks this year were dreadful; they were dreadful in 2005. And this is the man joining a Twins team that needs good fielding behind its pitchers, who routinely rank low in the majors in strikeout rate, touching bottom with last season’s 30th-place finish.

Even if Carroll’s track record as a shortstop wasn’t poor, that’s without getting into the number of shortstops playing the position effectively into their late 30s. Carroll will be 38 by next season, and only 25 teams have ever played a shortstop that old or older; of them, only one, the 1984 Cubs with Larry Bowa, ever made the postseason. The Yankees will be giving it a shot next year with Derek Jeter. Suffice to say Jamey Carroll ain’t the Captain, whatever your position on Jeter’s defensive performance.

It’s possible that Carroll winds up at second instead of short, and that the Twins continue to employ Nishioka and Casilla and Trevor Plouffe at shortstop. However, a four-headed middle-infield monster where nobody can play shortstop effectively simply sounds more monstrous. Add in Danny Valencia’s brand of relative immobility at third, and it sounds like a tough season to come for the Twins’ especially defense-dependent pitching -- unless Carroll replaces Valencia, and the Twins find a shortstop.

Which leaves Minnesota with ... what? Beyond the unfortunate legacy and throwing money at the middle-infield problem, the Twins do get something for their troubles. The good news is that Carroll’s perhaps Punto-plus at the plate -- his lowest OBP mark in the past four seasons was .355. And given that he’s a negligible extra-base threat, Target Field’s slugging-suppressing powers won’t matter to him. Placed in one of the two top slots in Minnesota's order, he ought to be an offensive asset, creating plenty of run-scoring opportunities for Joe Mauer and … well, other people, because on the long list of problems that Ryan is going to have to fix this winter, staffing next year’s lineup has to rank right at the top. Carroll’s a useful part, and one who can be moved around, but if he’s locked in at short, the Twins have locked in on a non-solution to their problems there.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Mark Simon and myself joined forces on Friday's Baseball Today. Before you listen, however, take a few seconds to go to podcastawards.com and vote for Baseball Today as the best sports podcast -- we're one of 10 finalists. Now, things we discussed:

1. Another crazy game in the AL with a bunch of statistical quirks. Jim Leyland's plan worked out and Justin Verlander was good enough to get the win.

2. The NL game wasn't nearly as exciting, but Randy Wolf was excellent to get the Brewers even in the series.

4. Mark and I discuss the best League Championship Series ever. Not surprisingly, Mark prefers the 1986 NLCS, but which one do I rank No. 1?

5. We discuss a great email from a reader: Pitchers have struggled this postseason. Are they tired from pitching more in the regular season?

All that plus Simon Says, previewing the weekend action, the Cubs, CC Sabathia to the Rangers and more on Friday's Baseball Today. Enjoy the game and the weekend.

Bring back the stories of Mickey Mantle playing through the pain of ravaged knees and a torn-up shoulder. The anecdotes of Sandy Koufax and his "atomic" balm, a concoction he applied to dull the pain in his elbow, but an ointment of such ferocity that teammate Lou Johnson once accidentally put on one of Koufax's shirts and ran off the field screaming in agony. Or remember Kirk Gibson hobbling around the bases.

OK, maybe I'm going a little too far. After all, Delmon Young has only an oblique strain, an injury that trainers seemingly invented a decade ago. Heck, guys such as George Brett probably played their entire careers with oblique strains and didn't even realize it. But it's 2011 and now an oblique strain sidelines a guy for a few days, a few weeks or leaves him off the American League Championship Series roster.

That was originally the decision the Tigers made with Young, who homered in the Game 5 division series victory over the Yankees -- his third home run of that series -- only to strain the oblique later in the game. "We thought he was going to be all right," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said before Game 1. "He hit fine yesterday, wasn't too bad, then he went to the press [conference] and it stiffened up. It killed him when he raised his arm up. He had an MRI and it didn't show a whole lot, but with those obliques, you just don't know."

Only when Magglio Ordonez broke his ankle in the series opener was Young added back to the ALCS roster. He'd gone 0-for-8 in two games. But in Game 5 he hit a two-out home run off C.J. Wilson in the fourth inning to give Detroit a 2-1 lead, and then lofted a high fly that cleared the fence in left-center in the sixth for a two-run homer and a 6-2 lead in a game they eventually won 7-5. Call it luck or good fortune or true grit or just call it good hitting -- either way, Young became just the fourth Tigers player to hit two home runs in a postseason game, joining Ordonez (2004 ALCS), Gibson and Alan Trammell (both in the 1984 World Series).

That sixth inning did unwind in a quirky manner with real bits of luck: Ryan Raburn singled, Miguel Cabrera doubled when the ball hit the third-base bag and bounded over Adrian Beltre's head (followed by about 87 close-ups of the bag from Fox, Victor Martinez tripled to right on a ball that Nelson Cruz missed by an inch or three, and then Young deposited his home run off the dugout roof in the bullpen. It all happened in 16 pitches and maybe Texas manager Ron Washington waited too long to pull Wilson, but with a 3-1 series lead, it was understandable that he was reluctant to pull Wilson, and neither Cabrera's double nor Martinez's triple had been hit hard. Wilson's postseason struggles -- 16 runs in 15.2 innings -- are cause for concern for the Rangers, however, and represented yet another short start from the Texas rotation. The Rangers have yet to have a starter go more than six innings in the series.

Other than Young and the third-base bag, the other MVP of the game, of course, was Justin Verlander. And while everybody keeps trying to force the Justin Verlander storyline on us -- the announcers spend plenty of time talking about him even in games he's not pitching -- the fact is that he was again mediocre, throwing 7.1 innings and 133 pitches but allowing four runs. (He became the first pitcher to throw 130 pitches in a postseason game since the infamous Pedro Martinez start in the 2003 ALCS.) With Leyland saying before the game that he wouldn't use Joaquin Benoit or Jose Valverde, he needed Verlander to go deep into the game. The big guy did do that, to his credit. Verlander's clutch out came in the top of the sixth when he got Ian Kinsler to ground into a 5-3 double play with the bases loaded.

So, yes, give Verlander credit for getting his team into the eighth. But give his offense credit for scoring seven runs and hitting four home runs (Alex Avila and Ryan Raburn joined Young in the fun). Verlander gets credit for the win, but you can say luck was on his side. Before this game, there had been 65 games in postseason history in which a starting pitcher lasted between seven and eight innings and allowed four runs. The pitcher got the win in only 10 of those games, and one of those was Verlander against the Yankees in the ALCS.

Anyway, we're back to Texas with a Game 6 on Saturday. It's a series that deserves at least one more game.

But I'll take two.

I was sure Alex Rodriguez was going to pop one out.

I was pretty sure Mark Teixeira was going to pop one out.

I knew Nick Swisher was going to knock one over the short porch in right field, probably down the line and into the first row.

That's what we expect from the New York Yankees, isn't it?

When the Yankees asked Joaquin Benoit to remove the big bandage that covered a zit or mosquito bite or whatever had infected his cheek like a small alien, you knew it was coming: Benoit would be rattled, he'd be thinking about exposing his sore to a national TV audience more than throwing strikes and the Yankees would win another big October game.

Band-Aid Gate. We all saw it coming.

And it almost did. Curtis Granderson reached out on a 3-2 pitch off the plate and looped a liner into right field to move Derek Jeter to second base. Robinson Cano hit a dribbler to Benoit's right that he stabbed at and somehow missed to load the bases. Bringing up Rodriguez. He just missed a 1-1, 95 mph fastball, fouling it straight back. He laid off a low changeup. Benoit came back with another changeup, a fantastic one that dove inside, an unhittable pitch. A-Rod missed it, swinging over the top. The fans booed as he walked back to the dugout. Sometimes it's not easy being the $275 million cleanup hitter.

But Teixeira walked on five pitches. Tigers 3, Yankees 2.

Nothing beats the tension of postseason baseball, especially in Yankee Stadium, with a visiting team trying to pull off the upset, the fans on their feet, too nervous to cheer or boo, it seemed. Maybe we've seen too many ballparks with fans waving towels. Maybe we just haven't seen enough Game 5s or Game 7s in recent years. But this felt like the most pressure-filled October moment in a long time.

Swisher struck out on a 2-2, 96 mph fastball.

Tigers fans exhaled for the first time in 12 minutes.

Benoit had needed 23 pitches to get two outs. The Tigers still needed six more.

Tension? It was punishment for fans on both sides, 166 games of big wins, big home runs and big comebacks, all down to two innings of October baseball. This is why we watch those games when it's 48 degrees and drizzling in April, why we watch those 3-hour games that move slower than a slug in the sun, meaningless games against the Royals or Twins in June. To get here. To six more outs.

As Jeter stepped in with two outs and Brett Gardner on first base in the eighth, Benoit had thrown 36 pitches. He hadn't thrown 37 pitches in a game all season. You can't make that kind of stuff up. On Benoit's 37th pitch, Gardner took off, Jeter took his classic inside-out swing ... Don Kelly took a step or two back, that right-field wall at Yankee Stadium that seems like it was built for wiffleball looming just a few feet behind him ... it looked like it had a chance ... fans reaching over, trying to pull a Jeffrey Maier ... the ball dropping into Kelly's glove.

So of course it came down to Jose Valverde, the man who said the series wouldn't return to New York. All he had to do was retire Granderson, Cano and Rodriguez. The big pitch was a 3-2 fastball to Granderson that he popped up to left. Cano lined softly to center. A-Rod swung through a 94 mph fastball. Game over, Tigers move on, Yankees go home, A-Rod walks off to more boos, the fans not caring that he was playing with a bad knee or that he wasn't the only Yankee to come up short in this series.

* * * *

Three big moments in this game:

1. Home runs from Don Kelly and Delmon Young in the first inning. I criticized Jim Leyland for hitting Kelly second. As we say though: You gotta make the plays, and Don Kelly came through. Kudos.

2. Yanking Ivan Nova after two innings essentially forced Joe Girardi to use CC Sabathia. I didn't like the idea of using CC, and he didn't pitch well. He got four outs but gave up two hits, two walks and the run that proved to be the winning run. Of the 37 pitches he threw, just 19 were for strikes.

3. Yankees third-base coach Rob Thomson held up Rodriguez at third base on Jorge Posada's one-out single in the fourth. Rodriguez had reached the bag right as Austin Jackson picked up the ball. Jackson has a decent arm and threw out eight runners on the season. It probably would have been a bang-bang play, especially with Rodriguez not at 100 percent speed. Tough call for Thomson, but I think he made the right decision, not wanting to potentially ruin a big inning. Russell Martin popped out to first and Gardner fouled out to leave the bases loaded.

* * * *

During his postgame news conference, Leyland said it perfectly: "This will be a game I'll remember the rest of my life." He pointed out he's been on both sides of it. Asked about Kelly's home run, he said, "Sometimes things just work out for you." He then praised Kelly, said it couldn't have happened to a better kid and nearly got choked up, knowing that home run will be with Kelly for the rest of his life.

And that's October baseball. Unsung heroes, big strikeouts, big hits, tension, pain, suffering and ... joy.

And memories. Love the memories.

You can follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Wednesday night's Tigers lineup, including each player's on-base percentage.

Andy Dirks, .301
Brennan Boesch, .346
Delmon Young, .309
Miguel Cabrera, .427
Victor Martinez, .375
Alex Avila, .391
Jhonny Peralta, .356

You can use whatever metric you prefer -- wOBA or true average or EqA. No matter how you slice it, Detroit's best hitters have been, in order: Cabrera, Avila, Peralta, Martinez, Boesch and then a big drop to Dirks and regular leadoff hitter Austin Jackson. So with several good lineup options, Jim Leyland has instead chosen to bat two players with poor on-base percentages in front of his best hitter. And he continues to bat his second- and third-best hitters sixth and seventh.

As we've mentioned before, batting order isn't that important; but it has some importance, even if it's just 10 runs over the course of a season. Guys lower in the batting order do receive fewer at-bats and that adds up over a season. Take last night: the Tigers lost 6-5, and Peralta received one fewer plate appearance than the inferior Dirks and Young. Would that one plate appearance have made a difference?

Look at where the Tigers rank in the AL in OBP by batting order position:

No. 1: 11th (.306)
No. 2: 10th (.318)
No. 3: 13th (.323)
No. 4: 1st (.426)
No. 5: 6th (.342)
No. 6: 1st (.350)
No. 7: 2nd (.326)
No. 8: 5th (.323)
No. 9: 11th (.278)

The Tigers continue to have some of the worst production in the league from the top three positions. Young, owner of a .323 career OBP, is not the solution. Jackson does not get on base enough to warrant batting leadoff on a playoff contender. Speed is nice, but getting on base is nicer.

I thank SweetSpot writer/editor David Schoenfield for joining me on Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast, as we had a blast discussing many topics, including these:

1. Former GM Jim Bowden stopped by to break down the pennant races, talk about players that shouldn’t be given up on and how he would react if Carlos Zambrano was on his team. Very interesting debate!

2. The Arizona Diamondbacks just keep on winning, while the defending champs keep ... well, you know. Is the NL West -- as well as the NL Central and AL West -- still a race anymore?

3. The Detroit Tigers are holding on in the AL Central, and things generally go well when the amazing Justin Verlander is on the mound, but an emailer wonders if it will be enough to hold off the Indians and White Sox.

4. Alex Rodriguez gets booed while in Triple-A. Find out why and whether it was deserved. Really, do people need a reason?

5. While we often rip traditional statistics such as wins and RBIs, that doesn’t mean they can’t matter some, does it?

Plus: Excellent emails, what I had for dinner Tuesday, how the Phillies blew the ninth inning Tuesday, a closer look at Wednesday’s schedule and so much more on a packed Wednesday Baseball Today podcast!

A very tired Keith Law held off on his nap to bestow the baseball knowledge for Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast -- I was there, too! -- and here are some of the topics we discussed!

1. Future Hall of Fame slugger Jim Thome breaks a milestone and we don’t have anything negative to say about it ... or do we?

2. Similarly, future Hall of Fame slugger Delmon Young -- um, wait a second -- was traded from Thome’s team to a first-place one and we actually do have something negative to say about it.

3. KLaw delves into reasons why the draft pick signing deadline late Monday wasn’t so exciting, discussing winners and ... well, winners.

4. Speaking of milestones, a New York Mets relief pitcher reaches one, and then his manager does something kind of silly. You must listen to find out what!

5. Should Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann be in the MVP discussion? An emailer says yes, but a KLaw says ...

Plus: Excellent emails, Derek Jeter versus Darwin Barney again, why it’s always BLT time, checking out the Tuesday schedule and we hear from our favorite cat, all on a packed Tuesday Baseball Today!

April baseball is about hope and false optimism. May and June are about the grind, about staying in the race and avoiding injuries, praying the rookies are for real and the sophomores are slump-proof.

And July? If your team is still in the race, this is when the season starts to get stressful, when you sweat with every pitch. It's when you check the starting pitchers for tomorrow and the next day and the series after that. If your team is on the fringes of the pennant race, this is when you live and die with every game, and you don’t want to hear anyone say, “It’s not really a must-win game, you know.” Because you know it is. You know that in baseball, every game can matter.

On Thursday night, Rays fans lived a little and Twins fans suffered a bit of death.

I spent the night watching two ballgames: the Yankees versus the Rays on TV and the Tigers taking on the Twins on the computer. The Rays and Twins faced tough assignments, going up against two guys you probably know a little about -- CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander, respectively. But the Rays and Twins were starting their own hot pitchers, James Shields and Carl Pavano.

The Rays struck in the bottom of the first, with Evan Longoria swatting a long home run to left field. If you’re a Rays fan, this is clearly a sign that Longoria will finally start mashing. This is what you believe. He’d go 2-for-2 with two walks Thursday -- a sign, a hot streak about to begin. You know he’s due.

For Twins fans, you knew it was going to be a tough night against Verlander when Michael Cuddyer tripled leading off the bottom of the second, only to be stranded after the Tigers' ace fanned Jim Thome and Danny Valencia and got Delmon Young to ground out. Thome’s first two at-bats showed Verlander’s mastery in 2012. After Thome fouled off a 3-2 pitch in that first at-bat, Verlander blew him away with high-octane heat. In their next confrontation, Verlander threw Thome three straight breaking balls and then blew him away with a 99 mph fastball on the outside corner. Ted Williams couldn’t have hit that pitch.

Shields has been brilliant all season and was again this night, scattering six hits and three walks while not allowing a run until Robinson Cano’s two-out double in the eighth. The Rays won 2-1, sweet revenge for Shields, who lost 1-0 to Sabathia on July 10 at Yankee Stadium.

Dyin’ and livin’. That’s July baseball.

* * * *

The Rays split their hard-fought series with the Yankees, remaining 5 1/2 games behind them in the wild-card race. Three wins would have been better, maybe a necessity. The fact is, catching the Yankees will be difficult. The Yankees have a run differential of plus-117; the Rays are at plus-32. The Rays need better production at shortstop (their shortstops are hitting a combined .203 with a .249 on-base percentage) and catcher (hitting a combined .199 with a .287 OBP). Unfortunately, those are the two positions most difficult to upgrade at the trade deadline.

The Rays' bullpen, entirely rebuilt in the offseason, has been surprisingly solid, and Kyle Farnsworth picked up his 19th save in 22 opportunities Thursday. But it has been showing some cracks lately, and its 3.68 ERA is 10th best in the American League.

They have a difficult task, but don’t count them out; 20 of their next 23 games are against the Royals, A’s and Mariners. But they still have 19 games against the Yankees and Red Sox, including 10 of their final 13.

For the Twins, this week features eight games against the Indians and Tigers. They lost a doubleheader Monday to Cleveland but won the next two before dropping the series opener against Detroit. They’re six games behind the Tigers, in fourth place. The division is weak. Can they do it?

Joe Mauer is finally hitting, 16-for-31 since the All-Star break. Jason Kubel, out since May 30, returns from the DL on Friday. Denard Span is at Triple-A Rochester, rehabbing from his concussion. Kevin Slowey made a rehab start Sunday. The Twins are hopeful for Justin Morneau returning in mid-August.

Manager Ron Gardenhire will have interesting choices to make. If he wants to maximize the offense, he puts Kubel in right field, moving Michael Cuddyer to either first base (moving Joe Mauer to catcher on an everyday basis) or third base (in place of weak-hitting Danny Valencia). Or he uses Kubel as the DH, with Thome sliding to the bench.

The Twins still need Delmon Young and Tsuyoshi Nishioka to hit and the bullpen to avoid blowing late games. With a return to health of the lineup they expected back in April, the Twins have a chance to win the division. I still believe it’s a long shot -- climbing over three teams is no easy task -- but it is, after all, the AL Central, where the living might be a little dirty, but at least you’re alive and in the race and sweating every game.

As July baseball should make you do.

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