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OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

First: Derek Lowe spun his first shutout in nearly seven years? OK, that’s interesting, but hey, it was the Twins; they’re terrible. And he induced four DP grounders? That’s pretty cool, but part of what goes with the territory facing a balls in play-oriented lineup like the Twins’. But he did it without a single strikeout? OK, now that’s unusual. The last guy to throw a nine-inning complete-game shutout without a K was Scott Erickson a decade ago, on April 28, 2002 (thank you Baseball-Reference.com).

And to do it with so much help from his friends, in the form of those four Twin-killing twin-killings? Nobody’s done that since Ken Forsch got that sort of boost from the Angels’ infield back in May of 1981. Add in that Lowe did this at a time when strikeouts are at all-time highs, while generating just one swinging strike all day ... and words fail. His pulling off this sort of game is sort of like baseball’s answer to the coelacanth, because it’s like Christy Mathewson stepped out of a time machine and just mowed down a big-league lineup (even the Twins). It’s just one of those very, very improbable things you have to enjoy when you see it happen.

Of course, there’s going to be something automatic and yappy that will immediately tell us that he wasn’t that good, and that he hasn’t been that good, and that run estimators like FIP or xFIP will tell you he should be giving up an extra run and a half or almost two runs more than his current 2.47 ERA. Which is fine and worth keeping in mind, going forward about what might happen and should happen, but in the meantime the shutout’s a part of history, and Derek Lowe made it.

Second: Bryce Harper hit his second-ever home run in the major leagues, and it wasn’t front-page news. Considering it was the Nats’ lone run, that isn’t really shocking -- at this point, not only is he tasked with just proving he belongs day in and day out, the bigger problem is how the Nats will stop running through his teammates like Spinal Tap runs through drummers.

Third: You might reasonably feel sorry for Will Ohman for his part in Tuesday’s eight-run inning that erased a 6-0 White Sox lead, or his subsequent responsibility for the Tigers making that a four-run lead in the next frame. His lot in life’s not fun as is: With a 140-point career OPS difference between getting lefties out and righties aboard, he’s tasked with situational heroics, trying to get a lefty power monster like Prince Fielder out twice in a series.

That said, when he came into the fracas in the Cell, the game was still just 6-5 with the tying run on first and just one out ... and why was he even being used? To face and erase utility scrubeenie Don Kelly? That matchup wasn’t going to happen, not with Delmon Young on the Tigers’ bench.

So rookie skipper Robin Ventura walked into that, Jim Leyland pulls Kelly, Young gets hit by an Ohman offering, tying run scuttles to second, and the top of the order’s due up on a hot day in the Cell, when every pulled pitch off a righty’s bat has souvenir potential. Sure enough, Austin Jackson goes yard with an Earl Weaver special to put a three-spot on the board.

Next inning? Ohman finally gets to pitch to the left-handed people that he’s supposed to see, the lefty batters who won’t get pulled at the first sight of a southpaw: Fielder, Brennan Boesch, and Alex Avila. Except that Ohman’s no longer fresh, and he puts two of the three of them on base, and they both score, and the bloodbath's a slightly darker shade of red.

Suffice to say, if there’s a Will Ohman owner’s manual, you wouldn’t find games like this in it, not unless it’s followed by, “If you see this happening, call tech support.”

Home plate: From old friend Jay Jaffe of baseball Prospectus, a man who’s never been afraid of letting his Dodger fandom shine through:

You used to be cool, Chad Billingsley

— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) May 16, 2012

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Eric Karabell and myself hosted Wednesday's Baseball Today podcast while ESPN.com senior writer Jerry Crasnick made a guest appearance.

1. Jerry has a story up on Orioles pitching prospect Dylan Bundy -- who has allowed one hit in 17 innings so far -- so we talked with Jerry about Bundy and compare him to the other pitchers selected at the top of the 2011 draft: Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen and Trevor Bauer.

2. Bryce Harper made his home debut and Jerry weighs in with his early impressions.

3. The Dodgers' new ownership group officially takes over today so we speculate about what's in store for L.A.

4. We go through many emails, including whether ERA is a significant stat for pitchers.

5. We have an amazing Derek Lowe statistic for you.

Plus we preview Wednesday's action -- did you know seven pitchers who have thrown no-hitters start today? -- and even predict Albert Pujols' final stats. All on Wednesday's edition of Baseball Today!

One of the popular concepts in the baseball stats community is to look at a pitcher’s strikeouts, walks and home runs as a means for estimating what his ERA should be. The resultant stat is known as Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and is scaled similarly to ERA. The stat can be found on FanGraphs.com.

The idea behind this is that most pitchers with a good combination of strikeouts, walks and few home runs allowed tends to have a good ERA. Rare is the pitcher who doesn’t. If a pitcher has a bad ERA, but a good FIP, his ERA may be due to something beyond what he controls most. This could be the defense behind him, the ballpark he’s in, bad luck, or any number of factors.

Statisticians will often project a pitcher with a bad ERA and good FIP to improve the following season. The poster child for this is Rays starter James Shields, whose FIP indicated that he was far better than his 5.18 ERA in 2010. He responded with a 2.82 ERA in 2011.

How does this apply to April of 2012?

The three pitchers who had the widest differential between their ERA and FIP in 2011 were Derek Lowe, Ricky Nolasco and Brandon Morrow. Each had an ERA of 4.50 or higher. Each had a FIP of 3.70 or lower. All three have been great in 2012.

These three aren’t the only pitchers with significant ERA-FIP differences who are thriving in 2012.

Giants starter Madison Bumgarner finished last season with a 3.21 ERA and 2.67 FIP. He won on Sunday and is 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA through five starts.

Dodgers starter Chris Capuano had a 4.55 ERA last season and a 4.04 FIP. He won Sunday and is now 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA through five starts.

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

I wrote last week that very few of the game's top players were acquired as prospects in deadline deals (about 4 percent of the top 200 players). Of course, that doesn't means some deals turn to gems. Here are 10 in-season prospect trades that general managers of selling teams dream to make.

1. John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander. (Braves/Tigers, 1987.)

Alexander did go 9-0, 1.53 to help the Tigers win the AL East. Smoltz had a 5.86 ERA in Double-A at the time of the trade with an 86/81 SO/BB ratio, but he was in the majors a year later and an All-Star by 1989.

2. Jeff Bagwell for Larry Andersen. (Astros/Red Sox, 1990.)

Like the Smoltz/Alexander trade, this was actually an August deal. Bagwell hit .333 but with just four home runs in Double-A. But he actually had the second-best OPS in the Eastern League. A year later, he was the NL Rookie of the Year.

3. Randy Johnson, Brian Holman and Gene Harris for Mark Langston. (Mariners/Expos, 1989.)

The Mariners deal Langston in late May, knowing they wouldn't be able to sign him as a free agent. He went 12-9, 2.39 for the Expos, but they fell out of the pennant race.

4. Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo Colon. (Indians/Expos, 2002.)

Another Expos disaster, a desperate move by Omar Minaya made on June 27 when Montreal was 6.5 games out of first place and 5 games out of the wild card. (By the way, earlier in the year Minaya had traded minor leaguer Jason Bay to the Mets for Lou Collier.)

5. Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps. (Mariners/Yankees, 1988.)

Buhner hit 301 home runs for the Mariners. Phelps hit 17 for the Yankees.

6. Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama for Randy Johnson. (Mariners/Astros, 1998.)

Garcia, Guillen and Halama were all key contributors to the Mariners' playoff teams in 2000 and 2001. As you can see, that original Mark Langston draft pick turned into immense value for the Mariners. Unfortunately, the chain was broken when they traded Garcia for Jeremy Reed (and Mike Morse and Miguel Olivo, although those two didn't do anything for Seattle) and Guillen for Ramon Santiago.

7. Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb. (Red Sox/Mariners, 1997.)

Made minutes before the deadline buzzer, Slocumb wasn't even that good of a reliever.

8. Kevin Tapani, Rick Aguilera and David West for Frank Viola. (Twins/Mets, 1989.)

Aguilera was a proven major leaguer, but Tapani developed into one of the big three Twins' starters (along with Jack Morris and Scott Erickson) on the 1991 World Series champs.

9. Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza. (Rangers/Blue Jays, 2000.)

Nearly 2,000 hits and seven All-Star appearances later, the Rangers are still reaping the rewards of this deal.

10. Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Mark Teixeira. (Rangers/Braves, 2007.)

The Rangers decided to deal Teixeira a year-and-a-half before he hit free agency, and dug into the lower levels of the Atlanta system.

There are certainly some recent deals to keep an eye on; I have a feeling Carlos Santana-for-Casey Blake will eventually enter lists like this one.

Here are the top five reasons why everyone should be listening to Thursday's Baseball Today podcast with Keith Law, as we unveil a new show page that you can see right here!

1. Breaking news during the show, as the Oakland Athletics change managers! We discuss!

2. Two teams changed hitting coaches on Wednesday night, and one of the newbies was our colleague at ESPN. How much can a hitting coach really do, especially to proven players like Josh Hamilton and Chris Coghlan?

3. The Pirates are 30-30 in June! Should there be celebration? Mr. Law actually might surprise you on this one.

4. Red Sox-Yankees, Yankees-Red Sox ... we explore the David Ortiz bat-flipping angle, the Yankees bullpen, what CC Sabathia might do and a lot more.

5. The key to the Adrian Gonzalez deal with the Padres and Red Sox is scheduled to debut Thursday, and Keith shares his thoughts.

Plus: Excellent emails, wrapping up the amateur draft as well as angles on tools, paying for slot and going to junior college, plus a look at Thursday's pitchers to watch, all on Baseball Today!

We talked baseball caps. We talked Braves and Derek Jeter and lots of other things. Check it out here.

Six major league players have been arrested for DUI since Jan. 1: Miguel Cabrera, Coco Crisp, Austin Kearns, Derek Lowe, Shin-Soo Choo and Adam Kennedy. Law enforcement is doing its job. Major League Baseball and the players' association is not. After the tragic death of Cardinals pitcher Josh Hancock and the unfortunate death caused in an accident involving former Yankee Jim Leyritz in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., haven’t we learned our lesson?

How many more deaths will it take before baseball does something about this problem? Do we have to lose our children, parents, siblings or friends before we take action? Enough of the problem. Let’s find a solution.

Here are my ideas:

1. If convicted of a DUI, you receive the same punishment as testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs: a 50-game suspension without pay the first time; 100-game suspension for the second violation; and if there’s a third offense, you are banned for life. That is more than fair in an effort to save lives.

2. Bring parents who have lost their children to drunken driving accidents into each of the 30 clubhouses. Show the players pictures and videos of the 8-year-old children playing baseball the night before they were killed. Let the players see the parents crying while telling the story. Let them feel the lifetime of pain and agony that they have to live through.

3. Provide players with the phone numbers of cabs, town car or limo services in every city.

4. Implement a club rule: No drinking and driving, period. No exceptions.

In April 2006, I was arrested for DUI, and although the charges were later dropped, the process was a learning experience that changed my life. I spent considerable time learning the negative effects of drinking and driving, and never again will I have a single glass of wine, or a single bottle of beer and get behind the wheel of the car. It’s not worth it. I owe it to your family and friends, and you owe it to mine. I’m a proponent of saving lives and using cars as transportation, not as potential weapons.

I wouldn’t go so far as to call it the mismatch of the century, but John Lannan trying to beat Roy Halladay in Philadephia was kind of like Mondale in ’84: Not a chance.

Halladay was brilliant with 10 strikeouts and no walks and Lannan was the opposite of brilliant with six runs allowed over two innings, dropping his career record against the Phillies to 0-10. To those of you who listened to Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast: I was just kidding with my prediction -- I didn’t really think the Nationals would win. Just a joke for Karabell's benefit.

So now the Phillies are 21-9, and they own the best run differential in the National League. As expected, the rotation has dominated as the club has allowed the fewest runs in the majors. In other news, Chase Utley may soon begin a minor-league rehab assignment, and the cheesesteaks are as tasty as ever. The only bad news is the Flyers are down 3-0 to the Bruins.

Actually … hold on, there is some bad news, of sorts. Of those 30 games, just five have come against teams that currently have a winning record, with three played against the Braves and two against the Marlins. The Phillies have also played 17 games at home. Which is why this weekend’s series against the Braves is so intriguing, because it kicks off this stretch of games for Philadelphia:

• 3 versus Atlanta
• 3 at Florida
• 3 at Atlanta
• 2 at St. Louis
• 2 versus Colorado
• 3 versus Texas
• 4 versus Cincinnati

That’s 20 consecutive games against winning ballclubs, which makes for a little sterner test than the Nationals and Mets have offered. As a comparison, the Marlins are 19-11, but have played 16 games against winning teams. Now, I admit, strength of schedule can be a little overanalyzed, especially in the NL, where there appears to be so much parity this season. But I still think these next three weeks will give us a better sense as to the strength of this Phillies team.

The Braves enter on a bit of a roll, with five straight wins and they have a plus-38 run differential (the Phillies are plus-41). Let’s take a little closer look at the series.

Friday: Derek Lowe versus Cliff Lee
You won’t believe this: Lee walked two batters in his last start. Clearly, something is wrong. Was he moonlighting as one of the Flyers’ goalies between starts?

Fun statistic: The Braves are gunning to become one of the worst basestealing teams in recent memory. They have five steals. Against 10 caught stealings. The last team to steal fewer than 30 bases was the 1994 Mets (in a strike season). But that team was epically bad on the bases: 25 steals, 26 caught stealings. Jose Vizcaino was 1-for-12.

Must-see matchup: If the Phillies let the Phanatic fill in for Charlie Manuel this weekend, could he outwit Fredi Gonzalez?

Saturday: Jair Jurrjens versus Roy Oswalt (probable)
You won’t believe this: Oswalt is expected to return to the rotation after missing a start while tending to his family in Mississippi after the tornadoes down there. Since the Cy Young Award was instituted in 1956, Oswalt is one of only 21 pitchers with 150 wins and an ERA under 3.25. The ones who never won a Cy Young Award: Nolan Ryan, Jim Bunning, Dave McNally, Wilbur Wood, Mel Stottlemyre, Steve Rogers and Oswalt. But Oswalt’s ERA+ (adjusted for park and era) is actually third-best of the 21 pitchers, behind only Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens.

Fun statistic: Nate McLouth is hitting .462 (18-for-39) in the eight-hole. With 11 walks. So we know this: Opponents still fear McLouth more than Braves' pitchers.

Must-see matchup: Chipper Jones is 7-for-28 with no home runs in his career off Oswalt.

Sunday: Tommy Hanson versus Cole Hamels (ESPN, 8 p.m. ET)
You won’t believe this: I love this matchup. I mean, I’m sure ESPN is regretting not televising that J.A. Happ versus James McDonald duel, but we’ll settle for Hanson and Hamels.

Fun statistic: Hamels is 10-5 in his career against the Braves (his most wins against any franchise), but just 2-9 against the Mets.

Must-see matchup: Ryan Howard versus Hanson. Can Hanson get Howard to chase something? Howard’s walk rate is dropping yet again, to the point that it’s now about half of what it was in 2007.


PHOTO OF THE DAY

Alexi Ogando made his second start for the Rangers on Monday afternoon. Ogando spent his rookie season pitching out of the bullpen (and most of his minor league career as well), but late in spring training the Rangers made the unusual move of trying Ogando into the rotation after deciding to keep Neftali Feliz as the team’s closer.

It’s not a move you see very often. Most relievers are in the bullpen for a reason, primarily because they don’t have the stamina to last in the rotation, weren’t able to develop the control or deep arsenal of pitches need to start, or lacked the big fastball managers like to see in a starter. Ogando certainly has the fastball needed, but we’ll see how he develops on the other fronts.

I like the move and Ogando threw seven scoreless innings against the Tigers, allowing just two hits and walk. Why not take a power arm and see what happens? Kudos to the Rangers brass for taking a risk that really isn't much of a risk. If it doesn't work out, just move him back to the bullpen.

Here are a few reliever-to-starter transitions from major league history. (This isn’t meant to be a comprehensive list, but these seem to be the most significant ones, not including many who may have pitched in relief as rookies, such as Mark Buehrle.) Many of these guys started in the minor leagues, although they all spent most of their early days in the majors in the bullpen.

David Wells – Wells was a second-round pick by the Blue Jays but took six years to reach the majors and he spent his first three seasons in the bullpen, making just two starts. Part of that was there just wasn’t room. The 1989 Blue Jays, who won the AL East, had a rotation of Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, John Cerutti, Mike Flanagan and Todd Sottlemyre, all of whom posted ERAs less than 4.00. Wells excelled as a setup guy, with a 2.40 ERA over 86 innings. He got his shot the next year, but even then the Jays never fully entrusted a rotation slot to him as he spent three years alternating starting and relieving, helping the Jays win two World Series, before signing with Detroit as a free agent and becoming a starter the rest of his career.

Derek Lowe – Lowe started nine games as a rookie with Seattle before getting traded to Boston. From 1998 through 2001, he appeared in 278 games (he did make 13 starts), proving himself as one of the AL’s most durable relievers. Grady Little replaced Jimy Williams as manager in 2002 and made Lowe a starter and he won 21 games his first season in the rotation.

Charlie Hough – It was a long road to the rotation for the knuckleballer. He started in the low minors but switched to relief in Triple-A with the Dodgers in the early ‘70s. He spent three years there before finally getting a regular job in the major league bullpen. He spent seven seasons there, once pitching 142 innings in relief, but other than 14 starts in 1979, remained stereotyped as a reliever. In 1980, he started out poorly and the Rangers purchased him. In Texas, he languished for two seasons in a mop-up role. Finally, at the end of the 1981 season, he was given a chance to start, won his final four games and became a starter in 1982. He was 34 years old, but would last until 1994, making 417 starts and winning 163 games in that span.

Wilbur Wood – Before Hough, there was Wilbur Wood. Considering Wood’s successful conversion, it’s amazing it took so long before Hough got a rotation shot. Wood first reached the majors when he was 19, although he didn’t exclusively use the knuckleball. He pitched periodically for the Red Sox and then Pirates for five years but never established himself. The White Sox acquired him and Hoyt Wilhelm advised Wood to stick with the knuckler. He spent four seasons as a workhorse reliever, leading the AL three years in a row in games pitched, before joining the rotation in 1971. Over the next five seasons, he started 42, 49, 48, 42 and 43 games, averaging 336 innings per season and winning 106 games.

Kenny Rogers – A 39th-round pick out of high school by the Rangers, Rogers started 56 of 169 games in the minors but spent most of his first four years in the majors as a reliever. Like Lowe, it took a new manager to view him as a starter. Kevin Kennedy took over in 1993, put him in the rotation and he last 16 more seasons.

Jeff Fassero – Like Rogers, Fassero was a low-round pick (22nd) and never a top prospect. Originally drafted by St. Louis, he didn’t reach the majors with Montreal until he was 28. Exclusively a reliever his first two-and-a-half seasons, he joined the rotation in July 1993 and was a very good starter for five more seasons with the Expos and Mariners, later returning to the bullpen.

Omar Daal – Daal had been a reliever for five seasons -- and not a very good one -- with the Dodgers, Expos and Blue Jays when Arizona selected him in the expansion draft and made him a starter. He posted a 2.88 ERA in 1998, won 16 games in 1999 and then was part of the booty that landed Curt Schilling from the Phillies.

Danny Darwin – Darwin was undrafted by the Rangers but took just three seasons to the reach the majors. He spent two years primarily relieving, started in 1981, returned to the bullpen in 1982 and then was back in the rotation in 1983. He’d win 171 games in the majors.

Dave Stewart – Stewart reached the majors with the Dodgers as a hard-throwing reliever in 1981, and while they did give him 14 starts in 1982, they eventually returned him to the bullpen. Traded to Texas, he bombed out of their rotation and was traded to Philadelphia, where he was released. The A’s signed him and he won 20 games in four straight seasons.

Jimmy Key – A third-round draft pick of the Blue Jays out of Clemson in 1982, Key reached the majors in 1984, appearing in 63 games in relief. Despite underwhelming numbers (44/32 SO/BB ratio, 1.65 WHIP), Bobby Cox put him in the rotation in 1985 and he’d finish his career with 186 wins and a 3.51 ERA.

Goose Gossage – Here’s a famous one that didn’t stick. Gossage had led the AL with 26 saves with the White Sox in 1975, pitching 141 innings of dominating relief. Paul Richards replaced Chuck Tanner as manager in 1976 and Richards was an old-school guy from a different era and thought your best pitchers should start. Gossage went 9-17 as a starter, striking out just five more batters than the year before despite pitching 82 more innings. He was traded to Pittsburgh for the 1977 season and never started again.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Host Nate Ravitz was kind enough to have me fill in today for Matthew Berry on the Fantasy Focus podcast . We had plenty to talk about after Opening Day, including:

• Tough day for closers: Ryan Franklin, John Axford, Jonathan Broxton. Who are we most worried about?
• Looks like Craig Kimbrel may not share closer duties with Jonny Venters in Atlanta.
• Derek Lowe has a nice first start. What kind of year will he have?
• Nationals lineup looks terrible.
• Kansas City's Aaron Crow is a sleeper relief pitcher.
• What to expect from Marlon Byrd this year.
• Over/under on Opening Day home run hitters.

The better team probably won, and there's something to be said for that. Without two of their best players (Chipper Jones and Martin Prado) missing, the Braves just couldn't put as much talent on the field as the Giants. Not that talent always determines the outcome. But that's the smart way to bet.

A few jumbled-up thoughts about Monday night's game:

• I'll have more about this next month, probably. But Brian McCann, performing brilliantly at the plate and behind it, reminded me that he's one of the best players in the game, and definitely one of the more underrated. McCann's never picked up a single point in MVP balloting, but he's been an All-Star in each of his five full seasons, and has the beginnings of a good Hall of Fame case.
• I wonder ... If Billy Wagner had been available, would Bobby Cox still have allowed Derek Lowe to come out for the seventh inning? Lowe had thrown only 85 pitches, and been brilliant. But his usual limit is roughly 100 pitches, and he was pitching with less rest than usual. Ultimately, I can't really quibble with Lowe starting the eighth. I will question Cox's decision to let Lowe pitch to Pat Burrell, with two on and one out, Lowe by then having thrown 96 pitches.
• This is probably a subject for another day, but it struck me tonight just how little the players care about the fans. We know players don't care about fans when it comes to money; we can't really expect them to. When it comes to winning, though? We can assume the Giants didn't bunt toward Troy Glaus at third base for one of two reasons: 1) Early on, it wasn't considered proper to break up Lowe's no-hitter that way, or 2) it wasn't considered proper, at all, to take advantage of a veteran like Glaus, pressed into service because a colleague had been so terribly embarrassed in the previous game.If I'm a Braves fan, though, I want the players to do everything (within the rules) they can, to win. If the Giants had picked on Glaus, maybe a few dozen men at Turner Field would have been mildly offended. Meanwhile, some 40,000 more people would have cheered their guts out. Particularly if their team had scored more than two runs. And not been knocked out of the tournament.

It's a shame things ended this way for Bobby Cox. In a sense, though, he earned it. He might have lost Game 3 because he didn't get Brooks Conrad out of the game, and he might have lost Game 4 because he didn't get Derek Lowe out of the game soon enough.

Then again, Cox has never been famous for his tactical acumen. He never had the sort of reputation held by Earl Weaver, or Tony La Russa. He wasn't a cheerleader like Tommy Lasorda, either. He was simply a player's manager, a leader of men who just kept plugging away for nearly 30 years. And it says a great deal about Cox that for the last 21 seasons, he's managed the same team through great successes along with the occasional failures. He might not have been the best handler of pitching staffs, or lineups. But he was steady, and he might have been the best handler of men.

It would have been wonderful to see Cox go out on top. But that doesn't happen often. There's a reason they go out.

I've never been able to figure out how days can possess rest. But that's not my call. Neither is the Braves' rotation. That's Bobby Cox's call. And he's going with short rest:

The Atlanta Braves plan to start Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe on three days' rest during this last week of their playoff push.

The Braves needed to adjust their rotation because Jair Jurrjens is still slowed by a sore right knee.

--snip--

Manager Bobby Cox says he plans to start Hudson on Tuesday against the Marlins, followed by Lowe on Wednesday.

And if the Braves need to win (as they probably will), Hudson again on Sunday. And as Gleeman points out, that start (if it comes) will come against the Phillies' less-than-best lineup, as they'll obviously be a lot more worried about preparing for their Division Series rather than beating the Atlanta Braves.

But it's not just that game. When we figure playoff odds, we figure in strength of schedule. What we don't do -- can't do systematically, not without some sort of major study, anyway -- is somehow account for what happens when you're playing a team that isn't particularly trying to win.

The Braves have two more games against the Marlins, who aren't playing for anything and won't be using Hanley Ramirez. Then they've got three against the Phillies, who really can't do anything else except get somebody hurt.

Meanwhile, the Giants and the Padres have to try to kill each other this weekend.

As much as anything, this is why the Braves are a great bet for the wild card.

Joel Sherman on a decision that could have been ... well, not worse. But still pretty awful:

Obviously, the Mets’ signing of Oliver Perez has not worked out. But it should be kept in mind that the other pitcher the Mets were weighing at the time was Derek Lowe. The Mets refused to give more than a three-year offer for Lowe, who instead signed with Atlanta for four years at $60 million. The Mets heard familiar refrains about being cheap and ending up with at three years at $36 million because of that.

But since becoming a Brave, Lowe has shown signs of decline with his 37th birthday approaching in June. He has a good record with Atlanta at 18-11. But his ERA in his 38 Braves starts is 4.73, and opponents have hit .298 with a .356 on-base percentage and a .444 slugging percentage.

I'm not sure if, "Gee, the other guy we wanted has been almost as bad" is a great defense. Isn't the right answer to not spend a huge amount of money on either of them?

In his four years with the Dodgers, Lowe's ERA was 3.59, with a 2.63 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In those 38 starts for Atlanta, that 4.73 ERA is accompanied by a 1.62 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's still keeping the ball down -- his home-run rate has been virtually the same with the Braves as it was with the Dodgers -- but his walks are up and his strikeouts are down, and the result is an innings-eater with a high ERA.

Maybe he'll turn it around, but we're 217 innings into his tenure. And of course there are a lot more innings to come, with Lowe under contract (for big dough) through 2012.

So, yeah: the Mets were probably right about Derek Lowe. But they were probably wrong about Oliver Perez, who led the National League in walks the season before he got his current deal, and is well on his way to leading the league in walks this season. Maybe the right answer is to save your money for sure things.