ESPN MLB

OK, let's be brutally honest here about Jon Lester's complete game 6-1 victory on Monday night: It came against the Seattle Mariners. A lot of pitchers look pretty good against Seattle.

Nonetheless, it was Boston's first nine-inning complete game of the season and first since Josh Beckett threw a shutout last June. In fact, Beckett's shutout was Boston's only nine-inning complete game in 2011.

So it was a good sign that Lester went the distance (he did pitch eight innings in a 3-1 loss to Toronto back in his second start). For a guy who has had difficulty keeping his pitch counts down, he threw 119 pitches. He didn't walk anybody, although he threw first-pitch strikes to just 15 of 34 hitters. He struck out six, which at least was an improvement over his past two starts when he put away just five batters in 11 innings. I don't think we suddenly say the Jon Lester of 2008 through August 2011 is back, but it's a small step forward.

Of course, the Red Sox need a big step forward. Remember the Lester mentioned as a leading Cy Young candidate heading into last season? They need that guy back, if he ever existed in the first place. Lester's career high in innings came back in 2008, his first full season in the majors, when he pitched 210.1 innings. Last season, that total dipped to 191.2. Staff aces need to go deep into games. Imagine what an extra 30 or 40 innings would do in saving innings for the bullpen.

The Red Sox, of course, began the day in last place in the American League East. The Angels and Phillies also began the day in last place in their divisions. All three teams are under .500 and looking for small positives. Lester throws well against the Mariners? Hey, that's a positive. Joe Blanton beats the Astros? That's a positive. Small steps.

It has me wondering: Which of these teams -- all World Series contenders back in March -- is the best bet to take the big steps and reach the postseason? Let's backtrack a bit first.

Here were the odds to win the World Series for the three teams at the start of the season, from a certain gambling website:

Red Sox: 10-1
Angels: 7-1
Phillies: 6-1

And the current odds:

Red Sox: 14-1
Angels: 12-1
Phillies: 10-1

I'm actually surprised those odds haven't fallen a bit more, but it's a reminder that we're not even at the quarter pole yet.

Here were the preseason odds to make the playoffs that ran on ESPN Insider, via Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system:

Red Sox: 61.1 percent
Angels: 68.1 percent
Phillies: 62.2 percent

ESPN's panel of baseball personnel was even more optimistic about the Angels and Phillies. Here were the playoff percentages from the 50-person voting panel back on Opening Day:

Red Sox: 32 percent
Angels: 92 percent
Phillies: 86 percent

Not only were the Angels an overwhelming pick to the make the playoffs, 18 of the 50 voters picked them to win the World Series. Interesting that while Dan's numbers-based projected rated the three teams' playoff odds pretty similarly, the Red Sox were viewed in much less regard by the human prognosticators.

And now, as each team sits under .500? The current playoff odds via Coolstandings.com that run on ESPN.com:

Red Sox: 29.8 percent
Angels: 17.8 percent
Phillies: 31.5 percent

Clay Davenport also calculates projected playoffs odds. His system still likes the Red Sox in particular (percentages entering Monday's games):

Red Sox: 65.9 percent
Angels: 20.8 percent
Phillies: 51.6 percent

Clay projects Boston winning 88 games. Maybe his system views Lester as a Cy Young contender.

Now, this is where I pick which of these three teams will make the playoffs. Of course, all three could make it; not a big surprise if that happens. But if I had to pick one team, it's the Phillies. "Baseball Today" podcast host/KaraBlog author/SweetSpot contributor Eric Karabell says I can't do this; he says I've been bagging on the Phillies too much. He says I have to pick the Angels. I think Karabell is misremembering a few things. After all, I did have the Phillies to win the division and was one of just four of those ESPN folks to have the Angels missing the playoffs.

Look, the Red Sox can pound the old leather. My favorite stat: They have 100 doubles, 24 more than the Royals and at least 40 more than half the teams in baseball. The Angels have the advantage of playing the Mariners and A's 36 times this year, still have that great-on-paper rotation, and you know Albert Pujols will go on a tear at some point (although maybe we don't know that).

But I still see too many question marks on those teams. I need to see Lester and Beckett pitch several good games in a row. I need Vernon Wells and Erick Aybar and a few others hitting for the Angels. So here are five quick reasons I'm voting for the Phillies.

1. National League parity.

The Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks each won at least 94 games last season, but there's a high degree of possibility that no team will win that many in 2012. Heck, no team may win 90. This suggests the two wild cards may only have to win 85 or 86 games or so. Considering the mediocrity we've seen in the NL Central and NL West divisions outside the Cardinals and Dodgers, it seems like a good bet that two wild cards will come out of the NL East.

2. The Phillies' offense is bad ... but so is much pretty much every other team's offense in the NL.

The Phillies rank ninth in the NL in runs scored. They ranked seventh a year ago. Yes, Carlos Ruiz and Juan Pierre are leading the attack right now. The point isn't so much that this is suddenly going to turn into an offensive juggernaut once Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return and once Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino start hitting better, but merely to suggest that the Phillies' offense isn't a huge albatross when you compare it across the league.

3. They have Jonathan Papelbon.

OK, Charlie Manuel hasn't exactly done a good job of using him in high-leverage situations, but in a season where closers are falling prey to injuries and blown saves everywhere you look, Papelbon will still prove a small advantage over 162 games.

4. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels.

I still wouldn't trade them for another trio in baseball.

5. Blanton and Vance Worley.

Blanton lowered his ERA to 2.96 with seven strong innings against Houston on Monday. He has a 35/7 strikeout/walk ratio and has allowed just two home runs in 48.2 innings. Worley is once again proving skeptics wrong, with a 3.07 ERA and 45/15 strikeout/walk ratio in 44 innings. The rotation is five-deep and that depth will slowly show up over 162 games.

What do you think? If you haven't, vote in the poll at the top of the page.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Led by home runs from Fernando Tatis, Mauro Gomez and Dennis Phipps and triple by Andy Dirks, the Escogido Lions pounded Edinson Volquez and the Cibao Gigantes to clinch a spot in the Dominican League finals.

The Leones got off to a 5-0 start in the 18-game, four-team semifinal round-robin tournament. They have enjoyed plenty of offense from Tatis, Gomez and Dirks, who have combined for 33 RBIs in 16 games while the pitching, anchored by Fernando Rodney, Nelson Figueroa and Boston Red Sox pitching prospect Kris Johnson, have recorded 118 strikeouts in a 16-game span.

The second spot in the finals is up for grabs between the Gigantes, Licey Tigres and Aguilas Cibaenas who are all within one game of each other with only two to play.

The Aguilas have added some firepower to their roster with the activation of Cuban slugger Yoenis Cespedes while Hector Luna, Miguel Tejada and Oakland Athletics outfielder Brandon Moss continue to contribute on offense. For its part, Licey added Angels shortstop Erick Aybar for the final stages of the round robin while the Gigantes continue to count on Erick Almonte, Alexi Casilla and Wilson Betemit to carry them into the finals.

Aragua making a charge in the semis

The Aragua Tigres, led by former major leaguer Edgardo Alfonzo, have won five straight games -- including a two-game sweep of the defending champion Anzoategui Caribes -- to move to within a half-game of the lead in the five-team Venezuelan League semifinal round robin.

The 38-year-old Alfonzo is batting .417 with an on-base percentage of .512 through 10 games in the semifinals and has paired well with Hector Gimenez (who signed a minor-league deal with the Chicago White Sox last week) and New York Mets utilityman Luis Hernandez to power the Tigres’ offense.

Meanwhile, the Magallanes Navegantes have kept themselves in contention despite losing the services of Chicago Cubs first baseman Brian LaHair, who was recalled by the Cubs. The Navegantes have won of their last four games and are caught in a fight for survival with the La Guaira Tiburones, who have enjoyed a surprisingly strong performance from imports Brian Sweeney (2-0, 0.71 ERA) and Les Walrond (2-0, 2.60 ERA) as they seek their first Venezuelan League title in 26 years.

However, the Caribes still look strong atop the round-robin standings, as Alexi Amarista, Gustavo Molina and Jose Castillo continue to pound opposing pitchers as they have combined to bat .377 with eight homers and 33 RBIs in their last 11 games.

The Zulia Aguilas have already been eliminated as they began the round robin with a nine-game losing streak.

Obregon, Guasave lead in semifinal series

The defending champion Ciudad Obregon Yaquis took a 2-1 lead in their best-of-seven Mexican Pacific League semifinal series against the Mexicali Aguilas with an eighth-inning home run from minor-league veteran Iker Franco, who has carried the Yaquis in the series.

A one-time touted prospect in the Atlanta Braves organization, Franco has combined with import Doug Clark and newly-acquired veteran Karim Garcia to lead the offense to the series lead. The Yaquis have also relied on solid performances from starter Marlon Arias and relievers Mario Mendoza and Luis Ayala to gain an edge over underdog Aguilas.

In the other semifinal, the Guasave Algodoneros hold a 2-1 series lead over the Culiacan Tomateros, but Culiacan, after being down 0-2 in the series, exploded for a 17-4 victory behind three homers by import Cory Aldridge, who became the seventh player to hit three homers in a playoff game in MPL history and the first import to do it since Willie Aikens in 1987. Javier Robles and Humberto Cota equaled the feat in 2005 and 2010, respectively.

Aldridge, a free agent since 2010 when he played in five games for the Los Angeles Angels, led the attack which also included a rare home run from shortstop Ramiro Pena and another from outfielder Refugio Cervantes, who has played the last 12 seasons in the Mexican League.

Starter Rodrigo Lopez got the win as the series resumes in Guasave as regular-season ERA champ Francisco Campos takes the mound for Culiacan against Cincinnati Reds prospect James Avery for Guasave.

Mayaguez pounds Caguas in final series opener

The Mayaguez Indios’ bench came alive in the Puerto Rico Baseball League final series opener as last-minute replacements Danny Ortiz and Danny Gonzalez -- starting for the injured Randy Ruiz and Mickey Negron -- combined to go 5-for-8 with four RBIs to give the Indios a 10-1 victory over the Caguas Criollos.

Fresh off a semifinal series win over the Ponce Leones, the Indios took advantage of the rusty Criollos, who by winning the four-team regular season title had a 10-day layoff to await their opponent in the finals. Mayaguez pounded Criollos starter Matt DeSalvo, who lasted only three innings as Jesus Feliciano, Jeffrey Dominguez and Ruben Gotay all contributed to the attack.

Indios starter Bobby Livingston, a Mexican Summer League standout who most recently pitched in the minors in 2010 for the Tampa Bay Rays organization, pitched five scoreless innings yielding only a double to Criollos second baseman Alex Cora.

This exercise has no scientific value whatsoever. But it's fun. Let's go position by position and see whether the Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels rate higher. For the purpose of this discussion, we'll assume the Rangers will sign Yu Darvish.

Catcher: Mike Napoli vs. Chris Iannetta

Here's the thing about Napoli: He actually hit better on the road in 2011, so his monster season wasn't just a result of changing to a better park. After hitting .187 through May 27, Napoli finished at .232 in the first half and crushed the ball after the All-Star break, hitting .383/.466/.706 (wait, why was he batting eighth in the World Series?). Napoli cut his strikeout rate over 7 percent from 2010 and increased his walk rate. He did have a .344 average on balls in play compared to his career mark of .303, even though his line-drive percentage was only 1 percent higher, so some regression is no doubt in order. Still, his booming bat makes this a clear selection. Advantage: Rangers.

First base: Mitch Moreland vs. Albert Pujols

Moreland had a disappointing sophomore season, although he played through a wrist injury that required surgery in November. He also requires a platoon partner against left-handers. He does, however, ground into fewer double plays than Pujols. OK, I managed to write one paragraph attempting to compare Mitch Moreland to Albert Pujols. Advantage: Angels.

Second base: Ian Kinsler vs. Howie Kendrick

Kinsler hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases in 34 attempts and turned the double play as pretty as anybody in the game . Kendrick had his best season with that bat and with the glove, with the defensive metrics giving him an outstanding rating. Overall, FanGraphs.com rated Kinsler as the sixth most valuable position player in the majors in 2011, and Kendrick 18th. Now, I don't believe Kinsler is the sixth-best player in baseball and the big argument against that is he hit just .214 on the road and owns a career average 67 points higher at home. It would be interesting to see Kendrick hitting at Rangers Ballpark. Still, Kinsler's power, defense and speed gives him the edge. Advantage: Rangers.

Third base: Adrian Beltre vs. Alberto Callaspo

You could probably dig up enough numbers to make this an interesting argument. For example, Callaspo had the higher on-base percentage in 2011, .366 to .331. Callaspo hit .309/.368/.436 on the road in 2011 while Beltre hit .271/.297/.440. But let's not get too silly here. Advantage: Rangers.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Erick Aybar

This is one probably closer than you think. Or maybe not. But it does show Andrus' level of national exposure is pretty high for a guy who hit five home runs and made 25 errors. Andrus led in FanGraphs' WAR, 4.5 to 4.0, while Aybar led in Baseball-Reference WAR, 4.7 to 3.5. Andrus has the better range and on-base skills and is one of the best baserunners in the league, but his lack of power helps tilt the comparison toward Aybar. Andrus did increase his extra-base hits from 18 to 35 and he just turned 23, so maybe that slight increase in doubles power is arriving. Aybar had an excellent 2009, a poor 2010 and a solid 2011. Both are good players. A close call, but I like Andrus' chances of raising his game a bit in 2012. Advantage: Rangers.

Left field: David Murphy vs. Vernon Wells

Murphy wasn't actually very good in 2011. But he was better than Wells. (In fact, for all the talk about the Rangers going after Prince Fielder to upgrade first base, why no talk about upgrading left field?) Of course, they could slide Josh Hamilton to left if Leonys Martin is ready for center, but Martin seems ticketed for at least half a season in Triple-A. Advantage: Rangers.

Center field: Josh Hamilton vs. Peter Bourjos

Here's the deal: If the Rangers called up the Angels and said, "We'll offer you Hamilton for Bourjos," who hangs up first? Certainly, if you consider the contracts of each, the Angels hang up. But what if we ignore the financial circumstances? What do the Angels say? You have a supreme flychaser in Bourjos who had a solid year with the bat in his first full season. Hamilton was awesome in his 2010 MVP season, but his OBP in 2009 was .315 and in 2011 it was .346, hardly sterling figures for playing in a hitter's paradise. And he's injury prone. In fact, both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference rated Bourjos as the better player in 2011. And, no, that's not because he played more often -- Bourjos only had 14 more plate appearances. Hamilton had only 12 more extra-base hits and drew only seven more walks. He outhit Bourjos .298 to .271. Hamilton was better at the plate, but not by a large margin. Anyway, I give Hamilton the edge since Bourjos has to prove he can do this again and Hamilton's mammoth 2010 still buzzes our memories. Advantage: Rangers

Right field: Nelson Cruz vs. Torii Hunter

Cruz is another example of why the Texas lineup is a bit overrated: He posted a .312 OBP in 2011, which placed him 112th out of 148 regulars with 500 plate appearances. Now, when he gets hot -- as we saw in the ALCS -- he can be unstoppable, but when he's off he'll chase pitchers out of the zone. His career season in 2010 appears fueled by a higher than normal .348 average on balls in play. While he has a strong arm, Rangers fans unfortunately saw his lack of range on display in Game 6 of the World Series. Hunter, on the hand, is getting old and didn't hit right-handers very well in 2011. Still, his .313 OBP against righties was higher than Cruz's season total. Factor in Hunter's durability and defense and Cruz's annual aches and pains, and I'll go Hunter. Advantage: Angels.

Designated hitter: Michael Young vs. Mark Trumbo

Hey, it's 2011's two most overrated players! Advantage: Rangers. Although I'd like to see home many home runs Trumbo could hit in Arlington.

Bench: Yorvit Torrealba/Craig Gentry/Julio Borbon vs. Hank Conger/Maicer Izturis/Bobby Abreu/Kendrys Morales

Big edge here to the Angels. And while the Rangers have Martin on the horizon, the Angels can counter with Mike Trout. Advantage: Angels.

No. 1 starter: Yu Darvish vs. Jered Weaver

Weaver has been one of baseball's top 10 starters the past two seasons. Darvish may be good, but as good as Weaver? That's expecting a lot. Advantage: Angels.

No. 2 starter: Matt Harrison vs. Dan Haren

The ERA difference between the two was small -- Harrison's 3.39 versus Haren's 3.17, and once you factor in the home parks, Harrison actually had the better adjusted ERA. On the other hand, Haren had a 192/33 strikeout/walk ratio compared to Harrison's 126/57. While he benefits from being in the perfect park for him, we have to go with Haren's proven record of success and durability. Advantage: Angels.

No. 3 starter: Derek Holland vs. C.J. Wilson

Wilson had a 2.31 ERA on the road in 2011. Don't be surprised if he contends for the Cy Young Award in 2012. Advantage: Angels.

No. 4 starter: Colby Lewis vs. Ervin Santana

Unlike Haren, as a flyball pitcher Lewis is probably in the worst park for him. He gave up 35 home runs in 2011, and 23 of those came at home. On the road, he went 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA. The underlying results of the two are pretty similar, although Santana has better stuff. I get the feeling that if you switched parks, they'd post each other's numbers. Advantage: Draw.

No. 5 starter: Neftali Feliz vs. Jerome Williams

In his first promotion to the majors in 2009, Feliz averaged 11.3 K's per nine with a 4.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 2010, those numbers fell to 9.2 and 3.94. In 2011, they fell again, to 7.8 and 4.3. Why is he getting worse? Will a move to the rotation help? Did he throw his fastball too much? Will he recover from blowing the clinching game of the World Series? All intriguing questions without answers to be determined. Jerome Williams -- yes, the kid who came up with the Giants in 2003 when he was just 21 -- is still just 30 years old. He made it back to the majors after beginning the year in independent ball. Advantage: Rangers.

Closer: Joe Nathan vs. Jordan Walden

From June 28 on, Nathan pitched 28 innings, allowed a .190 average and struck out 28 batters with just five walks. You can't read too much into 28 innings, but it's a good sign that it just took him some time to recover from Tommy John surgery. Walden led the majors with 10 blown saves, but his underlying numbers were all strong. I love his power fastball and with a little better command, he should be dynamite. Advantage: Angels.

Bullpen: Alexi Ogando/Mike Adams/Koji Uehara/Scott Feldman/Mark Lowe vs. Scott Downs/LaTroy Hawkins/Hisanori Takayashi/Rich Thompson/Bobby Cassevah

With Ogando apparently slated to move back to the pen and a full season from Adams, the Rangers' pen looks deep although it currently lacks a reliable left-hander. Advantage: Rangers.

Manager: Ron Washington vs. Mike Scioscia

It's hard to give Washington the edge after his postseason performance. On the other hand, Scioscia gave Wells 500 at-bats. Advantage: Draw.

The final score: Rangers win 9-7 with two draws. But if the Angels do the same thing and ignore Wells' fat salary and play Mike Trout in left field, that would give them the edge there and even our score at 8-8. In other words, how many days until Opening Day?

Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com asks: Why pitch to Albert Pujols?

In other words: There's a reason the Angels finished 10th in the American League in runs scored in 2011.

Let's examine the Angels' lineup. Let's stick to what we know, and right now we don't now if (A) Kendrys Morales will be healthy; or (B) if Mark Trumbo can play third base. In the past 25 years, only Kevin Youkilis and Todd Zeile have played 100 games at first base in one season and 100 games at third base the next season, and both of them had previous experience at the hot corner.

CF Peter Bourjos

The Angels lack an obvious leadoff hitter on the team, as the only regulars with an OBP above .340 were Bobby Abreu and Alberto Callaspo. Bourjos has the speed and his 49 extra-base hits would add an element of power, but can he get on base enough? His .327 OBP is not what you want from a leadoff hitter, and the strikeouts will rub Mike Scioscia the wrong way. Certainly, Abreu and Callaspo are better leadoff options, but neither guy led off once last season, so that's an option not in Sciosca's wheelhouse.

2B Howie Kendrick

The good news? He's now been relatively healthy two years in a row. He hit a career-high 18 home runs and slugged .464. The bad news? His OBP was still just .338 and after a hot start he hit just .267 after May. Kendrick changed his approach last year, swinging harder -- it resulted in a strikeout rate of 20.4 percent versus a career rate 16.9 percent. The overall result was positive, but he's still a free-swinger who doesn't get on base as much as you'd like.

1B Albert Pujols

2008: .357/.462/.653
2009: .327/.443/.658
2010: .312/.414/.596
2011: .299/.366/.541

Yes, Pujols is a special player. Of course he is. But ... aren't those batting lines pretty good evidence that The Machine is not a machine? That he's slowly aging, no matter his workout regimen or his extreme desire to be the best. New Cardinals manager Mike Matheny and former manager Tony La Russa both made a point to say Pujols isn't like other players, that he'll age well. But I look at those numbers and see a player in slight decline. That said, a rebound year wouldn't surprise me, but keep in mind: (1) He won't get to face the Cubs, Astros and Pirates 45 times a year any more and he's moving into a slightly tougher home run park.

RF Torii Hunter

He's now 36 and showing signs of age: His OPS has dropped from .873 to .819 to .765. He can still mash a left-hander (.287/.389/.497) but was pretty ineffective against right-handers (.252/.313/.402). He's lost much of his speed -- five for 12 stealing bases and he grounded into 24 double plays. In fact, batting Pujols (29 double plays) and Hunter back-to-back is a 6-4-3 waiting to happen.

DH Mark Trumbo

We'll slot Trumbo at DH right now. While he hit 29 home runs as a rookie, he's another guy who doesn't get on base enough -- a .291 OBP. Here's a way to look at this: Trumbo created about 71 runs last season. He used up 427 outs to create those runs. The goal of a hitter is to produce runs while not making outs. Among 32 major league first basemen with at least 300 plate appearances, Trumbo ranked 24th with 4.47 runs created per 27 outs.

LF Bobby Abreu/Vernon Wells

How long of a leash do you give Wells after his miserable season? Do you give him one month? Two months? Trouble is, the AL West and wild-card races project to be very close this year, with the Rangers, plus four quality teams in the AL West. Can the Angels afford to wait to see if Wells regains his stroke at age 33? Since 1990, only two outfielders 30 years or older have had 500 plate appearances and an OBP less than .275 -- Wells and Alex Rios (also in 2011). If we lower the threshold to 300 PAs, we get 2007 Craig Monroe (who never played regularly again) and 2005 Steve Finley (who did rebound from a .271 OBP to .320 the next year). Still, there is such a small track of players who played as poorly as Wells that it's difficult to project what he'll do.

As for Abreu, he can still get on base against right-handers (.366 OBP), but his defense is terrible, his power mostly evaporated and he can't hit lefties. In my book, I'd just give the job to Mike Trout. His speed and defense are good enough until his bat comes around, but he'll likely begin the season in Triple-A.

3B Alberto Callaspo/Maicer Izturis

For all the talk about the Angels upgrading third base -- moving Trumbo there or trading for David Wright -- the Izturis/Callaspo platoon wasn't all that bad. Angels' third basemen ranked 11th in OPS in the majors and third in OBP. In fact, and I know Angels fans will find this hard to believe, but Callaspo created 5.22 runs per 27 outs. Better than Trumbo. Now, it's possible Trumbo may improve -- hit for a higher average, draw a few more walks -- but based on 2011 results, the Angels are better off playing Callaspo at third (assuming Trumbo isn't Scott Rolen on defense).

C Chris Iannetta

The big question: How will he hit outside of Coors Field? His home/road splits in 2011 were extreme -- .301 at home, .172 on the road. They haven't been that large over the course of his career, but still sizable (.869 OPS at home, .707 on the road). He has a lot of patience at the plate, although his walk rate was high in small part to usually batting eighth in front of the pitcher. Still, he'll be a big improvement offensively over Jeff Mathis, even if he doesn't match his Rockies numbers.

SS Erick Aybar

He'll also factor into the leadoff position, where he started 55 games in 2011 -- at least against right-handed pitchers (.341 OBP versus righties, .284 versus lefties).

Now, the strength of the lineup is that there's no outstanding weakness ... well, assuming Vernon Wells doesn't get 500 plate appearances again. If Kendrys Morales is healthy, the team will have even more depth, which is a good thing: Hunter can play 130 games instead of 156; Izturis can fill in at third, short and second; maybe Trumbo turns into a sort of four-corner super sub: 20 games at first, 20 games at third, 20 games in each of the corner outfield spots, some time at DH. If Wells and Abreu struggle, Trout is ready on the farm. Having this kind of flexibility is a manager's dream.

On the other, the only outstanding strength is Albert Pujols. He's the only hitter who projects to post an .800 OPS (Kendrick was .802 last season, his career-best). Even the 2010 San Francisco Giants, maligned for their mediocre offense, had four hitters with an .800 OPS -- Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Buster Posey and Andres Torres. Tampa Bay didn't have much offense in 2011? They had four .800 OPS hitters in Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist and Casey Kotchman (plus Desmond Jennings in part-time play). The only AL playoff team in the past three seasons with fewer than four .800 OPS regulars was the 2010 Rays, which had Longoria and Carl Crawford and part-time Joyce.

So, yes, it's possible this lineup will score enough runs. Kendrick may have a better season, especially if he bats in front of Pujols. Maybe Bourjos improves or Trout gets called up and hits .285 with some power. Maybe Morales is healthy and assumes the cleanup spot on a regular basis.

All that remains to be seen. Right now, this a lineup with depth but not one that should strike fear in opposing pitchers.

If you’re a stathead or even remotely sabermetrically inclined, the announcement of the Gold Gloves might be an annual exercise in controversy. Certainly, after the selections were announced there was plenty of outrage expressed on Twitter from the thoughtful, the snarky and the easily outraged.

The inference of peerless excellence attached to the awards might annoy analysts with low boiling points, not to mention those who assume a measure of certainty from available defensive metrics. A lot of the upset rests on who hands out the trophies. The electorate’s made up of major league coaches and managers, operating only with a prohibition against voting for their own current players. It’s a setup that has produced its share of unfortunate or flat-out indefensible selections; the low-water mark was set by Rafael Palmeiro at first base in 1999 for 28 games spent loitering there when he wasn’t DHing.

Unfortunately, there isn’t a publicly available defensive metric that deserves that degree of confidence, although that isn’t going to stop people from taking suggestions with numbers attached to them at face value and turning the Gold Gloves into an exercise in feigned superiority. For example, let’s say you went by Defensive Runs Saved, a solid choice for best metric available -- but even John Dewan’s team, the inventors of DRS, favors a democratic process in determining their Fielding Bible Gold Gloves -- the numbers serve to create informed voters, not replace them.

So it should not be cause for upset that just five DRS leaders at their positions won the Gold Gloves: in the AL, Mark Buehrle on the mound, Matt Wieters behind the plate and Adrian Beltre at the hot corner, while in the NL Brandon Phillips got the nod at second, and Gerardo Parra his due in left field, no doubt thanks to the overdue segregation of selections between left, right and center.

But even among those relying on the numbers, you shouldn’t begrudge too much some of the voters’ other selections. Take Troy Tulowitzki at short for the NL. He finished a narrow third in the circuit in DRS with 11; picking DRS leader Alex Gonzalez (15) would have been cool, but the difference wasn’t convincingly huge. On similar grounds, it’s easy to buy into Placido Polanco coming out ahead of Pablo Sandoval at third base in the NL despite finishing second to him in DRS -- both suffered injury-shortened seasons, and Sandoval’s reputation before this year was execrable, where Polanco’s was excellent. Seeing Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez wind up with their leagues’ awards at first base reflects the absence of anyone obviously great; they had decent years in the field, Keith Hernandez is still retired, and somebody’s going to be awarded the sponsored hardware.

The difficulty in relying too much on the numbers can be seen at second base in the AL. Dustin Pedroia’s 13 Defensive Runs Saved ranked behind three other AL second basemen, yet he won the nod at second from both Rawlings and the Fielding Bible. One obvious mark in his favor would be his durability and regularity at the keystone, which might put him ahead of the Angels’ oft-injured Howie Kendrick (who made just 105 starts to Pedroia’s 158) and the roving Ben Zobrist (with his 33 starts in right field). That doesn’t easily explain how Pedroia also beat Ian Kinsler (16 DRS), but even there it’s interesting to note that a big chunk of Kinsler’s defensive value came on double plays (an MLB-leading six of his 16 DRS came on twin killings) -- and how much of that was a benefit of playing with Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus to his right? Pedroia may not have been a slam-dunk selection, but it’s one you can buy into.

Yadier Molina might seem like an obvious reputation selection; the number of miscues he made in the postseason seems to back up a less charitable read on him via DRS (minus-6), but here again, I guess I’m not that bent out of shape about it. Molina’s rep, obvious durability and equally transparent ability to intimidate opposing running games out of existence make for a reasonable case. And while Clayton Kershaw represents a strange choice at pitcher for the NL, I’d suspect a widely split ballot and the absence of an obvious favorite.

Unfortunately, that still leaves us with six of 18 selections that aren’t so easy to explain, let alone defend. Segregating the outfield selections appears to have given us the misfortune of achieving the opposite of what might have been intended, Parra excepted. While I won’t get overly worked up over how a platoon player like Carlos Gomez didn’t win despite a spiffy DRS tally, instead of obvious, exceptional defenders such as Austin Jackson or Peter Bourjos in center, or Brett Gardner in left or Jason Heyward in right getting their due, we wound up with five winners who did not rate among the top five in their leagues at their positions via DRS. Separating out by position at a time when several former favorites got injured or old tested the electorate to make new choices, which they did -- just not very good ones. Here again, I wouldn’t be surprised to find the ballots widely split.

But perhaps the weirdest selection of all was the AL’s Erick Aybar winding up on top at shortstop. Brendan Ryan’s superiority via DRS, nice as it looks on paper at 18, wasn’t enough to swing even the Fielding Bible’s GG voters to pick him over Tulo in their league-less selection for shortstop. I’d have thought that two years on the postseason stage might have encouraged voters belatedly moving past the Age of Jeter to move on to Elvis Andrus already -- and he did rank second behind Ryan in DRS -- but apparently not.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

While doing research for today’s piece on Ron Roenicke, a few fun items came my way that weren’t Brewers- or postseason-centric. Thanks to Doug Kern and the gang at Stats & Info, I was given a leaderboard for which position players have been bunting the most, how many of them have led to base hits, and even who has the most sac bunt RBIs this season.

Keep in mind, this is sorted by bunt attempts, not successful sac bunts, so the nine guys who have attempted to bunt the most often are not always the same guys who lead the league in successful sac hits.

The other thing to remember is that the tally of plate appearances where a hitter has laid one down include bunting for base hits and bunting to advance runners, so when you see that Juan Pierre’s 16-for-32, that means he has 16 bunt singles, but doesn’t necessarily mean he was trying to bunt for a hit 32 times. And because this was fairly quick and dirty, we didn’t tease out ROE results. However gritty the info, it’s interesting for the sense it gives us of which players are dropping one down most frequently, and what this also tells us about the managers they play for.

Looking at the top nine of baseball’s bunting fiends, we lead off with the White Sox’s Pierre, just like they do. Looking at these totals, he’s clearly the class of the little man’s game when it comes to placing pitches up the lines and around the mound. It has always been a centerpiece of his game, with the attending results in base hits, runs driven in and what some refer to as productive outs.

It’s worth noting that Pierre doesn’t just lead all position players in sac bunts, but all the pitchers as well. You can take that as a reminder of one of those pesky facts that NL-brand fans don’t often care to cite -- that you’ll usually find AL managers bunting more often with the people who can actually hit for a living, and not just with pitchers because what else can you do with them? This year’s team that has gotten the most sac bunts from its hitters? Ned Yost’s Royals squad. Between his fellow former Brewer Alcides Escobar (with a remarkable 17 sacrifices in 21 attempts) and Getz, it’s enough to make you wonder if Yost misses managing in Milwaukee.

Between Pierre and Getz you’ve got a group of guys who actively attempt to bunt for base hits: The Marlins’ Emilio Bonifacio and the Angels’ infield assault duo of Eric Aybar and Peter Bourjos. You can probably also put the token Twin on the list, Alexi Casilla, in this category as well. Ron Gardenhire might not have Nick Punto, and whatever value designated bench bunter Matt Tolbert has seems to have dried up after 2009, but Gardenhire's past fascination with the bunt still found an outlet with Casilla this season.

The pair of playoff-bound bunters should get some additional attention, despite the tactic’s associations with White Sox and Royals and Twins. The Yankees’ Gardner isn’t just an OBP hero and everybody’s favorite underrated Yankee (if that isn’t automatically oxymoronic), he’s also someone equally adept at pushing bunts for base hits or to move runners up. That’s something he has in common with Rangers speedster Elvis Andrus; if you remember the impact Andrus had within last year’s ALCS on both sides of the ball, this is just one piece of his value as far as being able to push sac bunts and base hits and exploit his speed to good effect.

For the curious, the best bunting pitchers in terms of raw numbers are the Phillies’ Roy Halladay and the Nats’ Livan Hernandez. Where Doc’s really only had two years to work on his craft, he’s already come fairly far as a pitcher capable of helping his own cause, ripping his first two career extra-base hits when he isn’t laying one down. Livan owns a career .528 OPS as a hitter (probably good enough to put him in the Twins’ infield), but bunting’s just another component in his batsmanship.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Sunday's Angels-Tigers game was one of the best of the season, with Cy Young candidates Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander facing off. Verlander flirted with a no-hitter. Weaver got upset at Magglio Ordonez staring at a home run (it appeared Ordonez wasn't sure if it going to be fair or foul). Carlos Guillen later homered off Weaver and did stare him down as he walked slowly to first base, leading to words, benches emptying and Weaver getting tossed after throwing his next pitch over the head of Alex Avila.

But that wasn't even the most interesting part of the game.

Angels shortstop Erick Aybar attempted to bunt for a base hit leading off the eighth inning against Verlander while his no-hit bid was still in progress.

THE BASEBALL CODE WAS VIOLATED! THE UNWRITTEN RULES WERE IGNORED! ERICK AYBAR IS AN EVIL PERSON WHO DESERVES THE WRATH OF THE BASEBALL GODS FOR THE REST OF ETERNITY!

Verlander wasn't too happy with the play.

"There's arguments both ways, but obviously from a pitching standpoint, we like to call it bush league," Verlander said after the game. Verlander did soften his opinion by adding, "It's a three-run game, so if you get a guy on base, you never know what can happen."

You know what I say?

Give me a break.

Aren't the Angels trying to win a game? They were down 3-0, the bunt is a big part of Aybar's game, and they're in a pennant race. It was 3-0 at the time, hardly a blowout. Aybar's job is to get on base. And it worked -- Verlander threw away the bunt attempt for an error and the Angels went on to score two runs.

The last time I remember a big uproar over such a bunt attempt was when Padres catcher Ben Davis bunted for a base hit off Arizona's Curt Schilling with one out in the eighth inning to break up Schilling's no-hit bid in 2001. The Diamondbacks basically called Davis gutless, even though the score was 2-0 at the time.

"They say every game counts, but when a guy's doing something masterful like that, if you get a hit you want to earn it in the right way," said Diamondbacks outfielder Luis Gonzalez.

Schilling admitted that maybe it wasn't the worst play.

"It was a 2-0 game. ... If it's 9-0, yeah, I think it's a horse---- thing to do. But it was a 2-0 game and the bottom line is, unwritten rules or not, you're paid to win games."

Part of the controversy with Davis was the bunt wasn't part of his normal game. Arizona manager Bob Brenly was particularly critical, saying he'd never seen him bunt before. Aybar, however, has had eight bunt hits this season and 58 in his career.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland provided a voice of reason: "It was a beautiful play. I'll be in the minority with the people that didn't like that," he said. "They've got a good team with a lot of speed and they're trying to win a pennant just like we are. I don't have any problem with that play whatsoever."

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Editor’s Note: This is the debut blog post from former major league general manager Jim Bowden, who has been hired as an analyst for ESPN.com. Bowden will write “The GM’s Office” blog, part of ESPN.com’s SweetSpot Blog Network, and provide multimedia analysis across ESPN’s digital platforms. Bowden became the youngest GM in MLB history when the Cincinnati Reds hired him in 1992 at age 31. He served as senior vice president and GM for the Reds from 1992-2003 and for the Washington Nationals from 2005-09. He was named MLB Executive of the Year by Baseball America in 1999.

As a former general manager, I look forward to sharing my angle of baseball here at ESPN’s SweetSpot Blog. A general manager’s view of baseball is often times unique and usually different than that of a player, manager, scout, coach, member of the media or fan. Doesn’t make our opinion right or better; it's just coming from a different vantage point.

The general manager’s position today is much more sophisticated and complex than it was a decade ago. The job consists of in-depth player analysis, including: scouting (professional, player development, amateur, video and computer), statistical components (including sabermetrics, new-wave algorithms, plus old-school numbers), medical evaluations, make-up, character, intelligence, instincts, family background, education and financial history.

It’s also an advantage to a GM if he has a strong legal, financial, medical and negotiating background. Strong leadership, communication and people skills and evaluative ability are a must. Most successful GMs are long-term visionaries who have the innate ability to know when to shift the emphasis to today, when their team has a chance to win a World Series.

GMs oversee four major areas: (1) the major league club; (2) the scouting department; (3) player development; (4) industry issues. To win a world championship you have to be successful in all four departments.

Today’s first blog will focus on Jose Reyes and possible trade partners for the New York Mets.

Please feel free to give me feedback or subjects you want me to address in the future at my Twitter account: @JimBowdenESPNxm. Thanks for reading.

* * * *

Jose Reyes will be a free agent after the 2011 season. Reyes, 27, is in his prime and finally healthy again. He has an OPS of .812 to go along with a .315 batting average, 11 stolen bases, 19 runs scored and is presently one of the best leadoff hitters in the National League. He has range to both sides, can turn the double play and has a gun from the hole. His best years should be the next four. He is a building block to a championship-caliber club. If I were running the Mets, I would sign him long-term and continue to build around David Wright, Ike Davis and Reyes.

I talked to Mets GM Sandy Alderson during spring training. He was evasive with his plan for Reyes. However, he did tell me that if the Mets are in a pennant race, Reyes more than likely would finish the year with the Mets. To be realistic, the Mets don’t have enough pitching to contend with the Phillies, Braves and Marlins for 162 games. Therefore, the decision should be simple: either sign him or trade him by the July 31 deadline. It doesn’t make sense to get only two draft picks as compensation if he leaves as a free agent.

Mets manager Terry Collins told me Tuesday that Reyes wants to stay with the Mets and, in his opinion, Reyes isn’t going anywhere. However, here’s the problem: Reyes is going to want a seven- or eight-year deal in the $15 million range and the way he’s playing, he’s going to get it. Based on the ownership financial issues, and the fact the Mets are several players away from contending, I think a Reyes trade is more likely than a Reyes signing ... at least by July 31.

Therefore, let’s look at the some of the most likely trade partners and possible players that Alderson would be asking for in return:

1. San Francisco Giants -- They’re not trading any of their four starters: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner or Jonathan Sanchez. Instead, the Mets would target 1B/OF Brandon Belt, minor league right-hander Zack Wheeler, shortstop prospects Ehire Adrianza or Brandon Crawford and second baseman Charlie Culberson. The Mets might ask for four players and the Giants might offer three. Any deal of this magnitude will have the contingency of signing Reyes to a long-term deal prior to the transaction closing.

2. St. Louis Cardinals -- If the Cardinals decide they are not going to commit to Albert Pujols, they could decide to make a deal for Reyes and continue to improve the team up the middle. The difficult part is these two teams don’t match up well. The Cardinals could offer pitching prospects Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins and maybe even future closer Eduardo Sanchez. However, they really don’t have any young position players to make this work (Colby Rasmus and David Freese are not being traded).

3. Boston Red Sox -- The Red Sox could be a good fit, if they’re willing to sign another Carl Crawford-type deal, which they might not want to after the start he’s had. A package that included shortstop Jose Iglesias and former LSU stud Anthony Ranaudo would be a good starting point to a potential package.

4. Cincinnati Reds -- The Reds have the best farm system of any team that has a need for Reyes. Although they are happy with Paul Janish defensively at short, can you imagine Jose Reyes on the Reds? Instant World Series contenders (if they’re not already). A package would have to include one of their top catching prospects, either Devin Mesoraco or Yasmani Grandal; middle infielder Billy Hamilton or Zack Cozart; a young bat like Juan Francisco; and a starting pitcher with tremendous upside like a Homer Bailey. If the Reds want Reyes, if the Reds can afford Reyes, they have enough to get Reyes.

5. Los Angeles Angels -- The Angels have talent to deal and the resources to sign Reyes. The Angels desperately need a long-term solution in the leadoff spot and Mike Scioscia has always built his teams with defense up the middle. Reyes would be a perfect fit. The Angels could offer major league talent back, including a package or combination of players: one of their three catchers (Bobby Wilson, Hank Conger or Jeff Mathis), an everyday shortstop (Erick Aybar), a rotation arm (Tyler Chatwood) and/or a second baseman (Alexi Amarista).

The Twins, Brewers and Nationals are three other teams that could really use Reyes. However, due to either financial reasons or lack of high-level prospects, it is extremely unlikely a deal could be made with any of those teams.

Follow Jim on Twitter: @JimBowdenESPNxm.

So I stayed up last night watching Michael Pineda pitch for the Mariners. And when that ended, the Angels-Red Sox game was still going on after a long rain delay. So I watched that to its conclusion.

The key play occurred in the bottom of the 12th, when Kevin Youkilis lofted a double off the top of the Green Monster, with Marco Scutaro on first. Vernon Wells played the bounce off the wall as Scutaro rounded third, relayed to shortstop Erick Aybar just outside the infield cutoff, and Aybar threw an absolute pea to catcher Jeff Mathis, right on target to nail the sliding Scutaro. The Angels escaped the inning and won in the 13th off Daisuke Matsuzaka.

In the box score, Aybar gets an assist. A minor contribution to his team's victory. But how many shortstops make that play? Seventy percent? Fifty percent? Thirty percent? It was a perfect throw, perfectly on target. Two feet off line, or with a little less zip, and Scutaro is safe and the Red Sox win. There is no advanced defensive metric that can measure this. We don't even know how often Aybar would make this play given the same opportunity. But the point is this: On this night, he did execute. Beautifully. And it won his team the ballgame.

Follow David on Twitter: @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog: @espn_sweet_spot.

In 1980, Robin Yount, then 24, had his first big season for the Brewers, hitting .293 with 82 extra-base hits and scoring 121 runs. The same year, 22-year-old Alan Trammell hit .300, scored 107 runs and won a Gold Glove for the Tigers. In 1982, a rookie third baseman named Cal Ripken would slide over to shortstop for the Orioles.

And so began a long run of the American League at the shortstop position. From 1980 through 2006, there were 115 shortstop seasons in the majors of 4.0 WAR or higher, from Baseball-Reference; 75 of those were from AL shortstops, 39 from NL shortstops (and one who split time in both leagues). The top 15 seasons were all from AL players and 27 of the top 30 were from AL players.

Now, that's not surprising when you see the list of shortstops with the most 4.0 WAR seasons during that span:

Cal Ripken 10
Barry Larkin 9
Ozzie Smith 9
Derek Jeter 8
Alex Rodriguez 8
Alan Trammell 8
Miguel Tejada 6
Nomar Garciaparra 5
Robin Yount 5
John Valentin 3

Larkin and Ozzie were NLers, but the rest were all ALers, and the AL guys put up a lot of monster numbers. The list doesn't even include Omar Vizquel, who had just one 4.0 WAR season. Since 2007, however, the tide has swung -- of the 18 shortstop seasons of 4.0 WAR or better, only five have come from AL players: two from Jeter and one apiece from Marco Scutaro, Erick Aybar and Jason Bartlett.

But with Jeter in decline, Aybar unable to replicate his fine 2009 and Bartlett now with the Padres, the American League seems devoid of a topflight shortstop. In 2010, the only two with a WAR of 3.0 or higher were Cliff Pennington and Alexei Ramirez. This season's group isn't doing much better, unless you count Jed Lowrie and Maicer Izturis, two utility guys who have filled in at short (or, in the case of Lowrie, potentially winning the job from Scutaro).

Maybe Jeter and Ramirez will start hitting. Maybe Toronto's Yunel Escobar will regain his 2009 batting stroke. There's not even an obvious Gold Glove candidate -- Jeter has won the last two as much by default as skill. So who is the best right now? Place your vote!

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Just a year ago, the Angels were doing something pretty incredible. This season? Not so much. Bill Plunkett's got the details:

Mickey Hatcher can put away the camera.

A year ago Wednesday, the Angels made a bit of history. On Aug. 18, 2009, they finished a 5-4 victory at Cleveland with an entire lineup of .300 hitters. All nine had at least 200 at-bats, the first time that had happened in a major-league game since the Tigers did it in September 1934.

Midway through the .300 game, the Angels' hitting coach noticed the numbers and sent a clubhouse attendant scurrying to find a camera and take a picture of the Angels' lineup (averages included) posted on the scoreboard at Progressive Field. Like a proud parent, Hatcher had copies of the picture made for each of his hitters, getting them to autograph one print as his own keepsake.

This year's lineup is much less photogenic.

"This year, I've got an all-.250 lineup," Hatcher joked. "Maybe I'll get a picture of that, too. You know -- 'Before' and 'After.'"

--snip--

"How many years had it been?" Angels infielder Howie Kendrick asked, knowing it had been decades since a team fielded a full lineup of .300 hitters that deep in a season. "That's something that's special. You don't expect every guy to be at that level every year."

If anything, the expectation was for this year's team to get it done in a different way.

"More home runs," [Mike] Scioscia summarized.

Here are the players in that snapshot, with 1) their batting averages at that moment, 2) their career batting averages after the season, and 3) their 2010 batting averages:

Chone Figgins: .308 (Mariners)
Bobby Abreu: .310/.299/.266
Juan Rivera: .310/.285/.257
Vladimir Guerrero: .313 (Rangers)
Kendry Morales: .303/.283/.290
Torii Hunter: .307/.274/.290
Maicer Izturis: .300/.278/.249
Mike Napoli: .301/.256/.254
Erick Aybar: .313/.285/.271

One year ago, most of these guys were somewhat over their heads. Batting average-wise, anyway. Most everybody knew it wouldn't happen again. And really, Abreu and Rivera are the only guys on that list who might be classed as truly disappointing (again, average-wise). And Izturis, I suppose.

But there's another guy: Howie Kendrick. He wasn't in that lineup, and at the time didn't have impressive numbers. But he finished strong, with a .291/.334/.444 line at season's end. Which was roughly what he'd done in the previous two seasons. Between those numbers and Kendrick's .360 batting average in the minors, I figured he was a good hitter and bound to get better.

Instead he's regressed.

With the exception of Hunter, very little has gone right for the Angels' offense this season ... and yet they've done decently enough, eighth in the league in scoring despite losing Morales early on. Oh, and those home runs they wanted? They got them. The Angels are sixth in the league in home runs (they were eighth last year).

The Angels' pitching has actually been worse than their hitting. With the addition of Dan Haren, though, the Angels have four good starters. The bullpen's been just fair, but bullpens are the easiest thing to fix.

Their outfielders and their DH are getting old but their infield is young. They'll need to find another hitter this winter, but if Morales comes back strong there's no reason the A's can't, at the very least, make a decent showing next year.

(H/T: BTF's Newsstand)

Baseball Tonight reviews the top defensive plays from Monday.