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Heading into the final few games of the season, I heard an interview with Joe Maddon where he was asked what it will take for the Rays to get through these next few games and into the postseason.

Part of his response: "You need your best players to perform." (Or something of that ilk.)

The two best players in this tiebreaker game were David Price and Evan Longoria, especially with Yu Darvish having pitched Sunday for the Rangers and Adrian Beltre playing on a sore hamstring. We spend a lot of time these days breaking down everything that goes into a baseball game, and that's fun and informative and interesting, and dissecting all the numbers and strategies and potential strategies are part of what makes baseball so appealing to many of us.

But sometimes the analysis is simple. Sometimes you just need your best players to perform. Price was outstanding, Longoria homered with one of his three hits, and the Rays beat the Rangers 5-2 to keep their season alive.

For Price, he exorcised some personal demons of sorts. He had defeated the Rangers just once in 11 career starts, including three postseason starts. His career ERA in Texas was over 10.00 in four games. He wasn't necessarily dominant, striking out just four in throwing a complete game. He had pretty good command of his fastball, however, and basically challenged the Rangers to hit it. He threw fastballs on 73 of his 118 pitches, and while the Rangers swung and missed at just one fastball all game, they didn't do any severe damage against it, or at least not enough damage. (Price actually induced just four swing-and-misses the entire game.)

The Rangers didn't exactly throw out a strong lineup. With Jeff Baker sidelined with a sports hernia, Ron Washington's starting nine included three lefties -- Price held left-handed batters to a .195 average with just two home runs -- and two of those, Leonys Martin and Mitch Moreland, are pretty weak against lefties. Nelson Cruz hadn't played in two months due to his suspension, Beltre hurt his hamstring on Sunday and Elvis Andrus had just 25 extra-base hits on the season. It was a game where the Rangers shouldn't have expected to score many runs.

It didn't help that Andrus got picked off in the first inning and Ian Kinsler got picked off in the third. Washington had apparently stressed to his club to play aggressive, but in the end those were two costly mistakes.

Once the Rays took a 4-2 lead, the key at-bat against Price came in the eighth after Kinsler doubled down the third-base line with one out. Price was over 100 pitches, and you could have expected to see Joel Peralta in the game to face the right-handed threesome of Andrus, Alex Rios and Beltre. Peralta was warming up, but he can be a little home run-prone (seven home runs) and Maddon might have been thinking of the four outings in September where Peralta allowed two or more runs.

Sometimes you just go with your best.

Andrus laid down a near-perfect bunt down the first-base line on an 0-1 pitch, but Price made a terrific play (especially for a lefty), flipping the ball with his glove to first to get Andrus. Rios grounded out to shortstop to end the threat. What if Andrus had hit away? We'll never know, which is the beauty of "what if" in baseball. With a little more cushion after Sam Fuld created a run in the top of the ninth, Maddon let Price begin the bottom of the ninth. Why not? One-two-three, game over.

As for Longoria, he lined a single to right-center in the first inning off rookie lefty Martin Perez to send Wil Myers to third; Myers would score on Delmon Young's sac fly. In the third, Perez faced Longoria with two outs and a runner on first. Longoria took an inside 94 mph fastball and drilled it into the wind tunnel in right-center, just clearing the fence for a two-run homer.

I can't really fault Washington too much in this game. His bullpen had been worked hard in the final few days (although he inexplicably used closer Joe Nathan for a fourth straight game on Sunday to close out a 6-2 lead), and while you could argue for a Matt Garza or Alexi Ogando earlier in the game, Garza hasn't been good and Ogando started on Friday.

Perez settled down after the Longoria home run, and Washington correctly yanked him with one out in the sixth when Longoria came up again. Ogando just didn't have much in this game. Longoria doubled off him, and with two outs, pinch hitter David DeJesus doubled him home (you could argue that Neal Cotts should have been brought in there).

In the end, the Rays are the better team. The AL East was easily the best division in the majors this year and the Rangers made it this far in large part due to their 17-2 record against the lowly Astros, an opponent the Rays didn't get to face 19 times.

Now the Rays get the Indians, and while the game will be in Cleveland, the Rays have to like their chances with the underrated Alex Cobb, who went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA in 22 starts, on the mound. Cobb throws an excellent changeup that dives away from left-handed hitters -- they hit .214/.245/.325 off it -- but he changed the grip on his curveball last summer and it's given him a second out pitch alongside the changeup. Cobb learned the grip from former teammate James Shields and batters have hit .260 off it, but with just one home run in 100 at-bats.

The Rays will face another rookie in hard-throwing Danny Salazar, who has made 10 career starts, but averages 96 mph on his fastball and has reached 100. The Indians have held him to tight pitch counts, going more than 89 pitches just once and held under 80 in five of his starts, so Terry Francona will likely tell Salazar to cut it loose for as long as he can go and turn it into a bullpen game early on.

Thanks to Price, Maddon will also enter with a rested bullpen, so there should be plenty of pitching changes and possible pinch-hitting moves to discuss and argue about.

Of course, it could be that it will come down to the best player. The Indians are good and they're hot, having won 10 in a row, but Longoria will once again be the best player in this game.

FYI: He's hit 22 of his 32 home runs off fastballs.

Well, you can't say this American League wild-card race is lacking in drama. Hey, the eventual payoff is small -- one game to keep your season going! -- but it sure is giving us a fun September.

A crazy Wednesday was followed by a crazy Thursday as AL East teams battled each other. Some thoughts on another night of playoff-like baseball.

• It's been an awful stretch of baseball for the Tampa Bay Rays. Go back two-plus weeks, to Aug. 24, after they had just defeated the New York Yankees for the second game in a row. They were 74-53, tied for first place with the Boston Red Sox and humming along as The Little Engine That Could and looking like a playoff lock, either as division champion or a wild card.
  
  Things can turn quickly in baseball, however. The Rays lost to the Yankees in 11 innings on Aug. 25. Jeremy Hellickson got pounded in a makeup game in Kansas City. Evan Longoria stopped hitting. They went 3-7 on a 10-game road trip -- the offense dying -- and went home and got shut out on Tuesday and lost on a grand slam in extra innings on Wednesday.
  
  So when they jumped out to a 3-1 lead over Jake Peavy in the series finale against Boston only to see the Red Sox rally to tie it, the sense of dread had to be sweating out of the pores of Rays fans, maybe even manager Joe Maddon. But Red Sox manager John Farrell gave him a little lifeline in the eighth inning. After taxing his bullpen in recent days, Farrell brought in little-used rookies Drake Britton and Rubby De La Rosa. Britton got the first out, but then Longoria hit a ground rule double to left center off De La Rosa. Longoria had swung through an 0-1 slider, and De La Rosa came back with the same pitch, but left it over the plate. After Matt Joyce popped out, Wil Myers doubled to right off an 0-1 fastball.
  
  The Red Sox got an infield single and walk off Fernando Rodney in the ninth, but Will Middlebrooks' screaming liner went right to Longoria and Dustin Pedroia popped out. The Rays kept their one-game margin over the Yankees for at least one more day.
• Longoria had been hitting .190 with just three extra-base hits in his past 16 games, but two of those were doubles on Wednesday. He also tripled on Thursday, so maybe he's getting back on track. Myers, meanwhile, had two homers and three RBIs against the Los Angeles Angels on Sept. 4, but that had been the only game in which he'd driven in a run in his past 18, so his RBI double was a much-needed lift.
• I thought Maddon tried to go one inning too far with Hellickson, who had scuffled through the first five innings but allowed just one run. Other than his previous start, when he tossed 5⅓ scoreless innings, Hellickson has been awful since late July. David Ortiz homered off him leading off the sixth and he walked Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who later scored when Stephen Drew doubled off Jamey Wright.
• The Yankees-Orioles game had an even more dramatic eighth and ninth inning. The Yankees led 5-2 in the bottom of the eighth. Alfonso Soriano made a leaping grab in left to rob Manny Machado of a home run and David Robertson fanned Chris Davis, but Adam Jones singled, Nick Markakis singled and Danny Valencia crushed a first-pitch cut fastball over the fence in left center to tie it up. After J.J. Hardy doubled, Robertson finally struck out Matt Wieters for the final out of the inning. For Robertson, it was his first back-to-back appearances since missing several days with shoulder tendinitis, and he didn't face too many batters on this night.
  
  The Yankees then rallied off Orioles closer Jim Johnson with help from one of baseball's worst sins: not taking an out when the other team gives it you. Brendan Ryan led off the ninth inning by lining a single to right, and Chris Stewart sacrificed, but Johnson fielded the bunt and shot-putted the ball into center with a ghastly throw. The winning run eventually scored on a wild pitch and then Mariano Rivera got the save, and the Yankees remained a game behind the Rays while the Orioles fell 2½ back (tied with the Royals).
• As for Johnson, I called him baseball's least valuable player this season on Twitter. The Orioles have blown nine games they led heading into the ninth inning this season, compared to the MLB average of three. This was a tie game entering the ninth, but Johnson is now 3-8. When your closer has eight losses, bad things have happened, and Buck Showalter's decision to stick with Johnson all season has proved costly.
• Last season, the Orioles set the major league record with a 29-9 record in one-run games. Were they good, or was there a degree of luck involved? As Joe Posnanski pointed out today: The Orioles are now 16-27 in one-run games in 2013, the worst record in the majors -- worse than the Astros or Marlins or anybody else. So they've gone from being THE BEST TEAM EVER in one-run games to the worst in the majors in one season. And you wonder why the Orioles are miserable right now.
• The Orioles gave Rivera a bronzed broken bat. Isn't all this Rivera love getting to be a bit much? I mean, it's kind of like, "Hey, Mariano, thanks for beating the crap out of us all these years!"
• I liked the way Joe Girardi managed his pitchers. He started the awful-of-late Phil Hughes but took him out after three innings and went to lefty David Huff. Of course, that decision looked good only because Hughes and Huff combined to allow only two runs in six innings.
• You do wonder, however, if the Yankees bullpen -- so good most of the season -- can hold on down the stretch. Robertson looked awful in the eighth and Rivera has been used heavily down the stretch and has five blown saves in his past 16 appearances.

We haven't done this in a while. If you haven't been paying close attention to the numbers, you may be surprised by some of these comparisons:

Player A: .265/.342/.496, 28 HR, 72 RBI, 132 OPS+
Player B: .283/.352/.468, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 134 OPS+

Player A is Evan Longoria, Player B is Kyle Seager. Longoria does hold the WAR advantage, 5.2 to 4.1, thanks to better defense, but Seager is quietly have another solid season at the plate.

Player A: .271/.359/.448, 22 HR, 117 OPS+, 1.0 WAR
Player B: .260/.370/.446, 17 HR, 131 OPS+, 3.1 WAR

Player A is Prince Fielder, Player B is Carlos Santana. Of course, I left out RBIs, and Fielder has 95 of those compared to 60 for Santana (Fielder has 81 more plate appearances). Has Fielder had a great RBI season? According to Baseball-Reference, the average major leaguer drives in 65 runs in 622 plate appearances, so Fielder is +30. Sounds good. But ... he's also had 98 more runners on base than the average hitter. In WAR, Santana moves ahead thanks to Fielder's poor defense and a positional adjustment for Santana, because he's played a lot behind the plate.

Player A: .233/.291/.448, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 1.5 WAR
Player B: .238/.299/.422, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 1.0 WAR

Player A is Mark Trumbo and Player B is Angels teammate Josh Hamilton. Trumbo has escaped criticism because he has more home runs and RBIs, but he's also another sub-.300 OBP guy in the middle of the Angels' lineup.

Player A: .243/.311/.433, 17 HR, 102 OPS+
Player B: .267/.316/.420, 18 HR, 98 OPS+

Looks pretty close, right? What if I told you one of these guys has 101 RBIs and has been touted as an MVP candidate by some (OK, at least one prominent national broadcaster), and the other guy has 60 RBIs.

Player A is Twins second baseman Brian Dozier and Player B is Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips. In terms of WAR, Dozier has the bigger advantage, 3.8 to 1.7. Look, Phillips is hitting .354 with runners in scoring position. He's also hitting .211 with a .249 OBP with the bases empty; those at-bats count, too. Phillips has made the fourth-most outs in the NL.

Player A: 209 IP, 145 H, 47 BB, 201 SO, 6.6 WAR
Player B: 187.2 IP, 158 H, 40 BB, 199 SO, 6.2 WAR

Pretty similar. Both are left-handed. One stat I left out: Player A has a 1.89 ERA, while Player B's is 2.97. Player A, of course, is Clayton Kershaw while Player B is Chris Sale. How can Sale be close despite an ERA a run higher? A few things. We're talking an NL pitcher versus an AL one, so Kershaw's run-scoring environment is a little lower. Home park: Kershaw pitches in Dodger Stadium, a good park for pitchers, while Sale pitches at The Cell, a hitter's park. Quality of opponents: Kershaw's opponents have averaged 4.20 runs per game compared to 4.51 for Sale's. Defense: Kershaw's is good, Sale's isn't. So why has nobody noticed Sale's season? He's 10-12. Put him on the Tigers and he'd be competing with Max Scherzer for Cy Young Award honors.

Player A: 193 IP, 180 H, 43 BB, 174 SO, 3.50 ERA, 4.1 WAR
Player B: 184 IP, 169 H, 50 BB, 172 SO, 2.98 ERA, 4.0 WAR

Cole Hamels is A, and Mat Latos is B. Of course, Hamels is 6-13 and Latos is 14-5, obscuring the fact that Hamels has been outstanding. Hamels was 1-9 with an ERA approaching 5 through May, and those bad starts (or good starts) stick in our memories. But since July, he's made 12 starts and posted a 2.17 ERA, allowing more than two runs just twice (though he has just four wins). He's still one of the best left-handers in the league.

One more:

Player A: 5-2, 1.48 ERA, 38 saves, 2 blown saves
Player B: 4-2, 2.19 ERA, 41 saves, 6 blown saves

Joe Nathan (A) and Mariano Rivera (B). By the way, Nathan's career save percentage since becoming a closer: 91 percent. Rivera's since becoming a closer: 90 percent, not including the postseason.

Some quick thoughts on the most important results and plays of the day, and a look forward to Friday.

Key stolen base and at-bat of the day: Mariano Rivera on in the ninth to close out the Yankees' miracle comeback -- they had scored six runs in the seventh inning to take an 8-7 lead over the hated Red Sox, sending the Bronx into a small frenzy of jubiliation. After Mike Napoli singled with two outs, Quintin Berry pinch-ran. He was 21-for-21 stealing bases last year with the Tigers. On the first pitch, Berry took off, beat the throw and went to third when it bounced into center. Stephen Drew then lined a soft single over Robinson Cano's head to tie the game. The Red Sox would score the winning run off Joba Chamberlain in the 10th. (Note: Imagine if teams kept that pinch-runner type or an extra pinch-hitter on the roster all season, instead of a seventh or eighth reliever.)

A devastating loss for the Yankees and Rivera's sixth blown save of the season, the most he's had since also blowing six in 2003. With all the Rivera tributes going on this year, it has to be pointed out that the Yankees have now lost four games they led heading into the ninth, which is one more than the major league average (3.2). All four were blown saves by Rivera (he was the losing pitcher twice).

Caught stealing of the day: Alfonso Soriano was on second base in the bottom of the ninth with one out when he tried to steal third -- hey, he'd been 9-for-9 on the season. Yale grad Craig Breslow was pitching for Boston and you got the idea he probably knew about Soriano's surprise weapon. He turned around and threw to second as Soriano broke for third and got caught in a rundown.

Pitching performance of the day: Former A's farmhand Brad Peacock came back to haunt his old team by pitching seven-plus strong innings as the Astros beat the A's 3-2. Peacock had a good curve on this night, throwing it a season-high 30 percent of the time and recording seven of his nine strikeouts with the pitch.

Most important win: Todd Frazier homered twice as the Reds beat the Cardinals to take three out of four in their series, moving 3 games behind the Pirates and 1.5 behind the Cardinals. Lance Lynn was ineffective again for the Cardinals, surrendering three home runs, and allowed four-plus runs for the fifth start in a row (7.57 ERA, .368 average, 25 runs in 27.1 innings). The Cardinals host the Pirates this weekend and the rotation needs to show up with some strong performances -- the Cards are 28th in the majors in rotation ERA since Aug. 15.

Most important loss: Yankees. On a night where the Rays would later lose 6-2 to the Angels (David Price gave up three runs in the second and third innings), the Yankees missed a big opportunity to pick up a game on Tampa, instead remaining 2.5 out of that second wild card.

Friday's best pitching matchup: Anibal Sanchez versus James Shields (Tigers at Royals, 8:10 ET). After Greg Holland blew a save in the ninth on Thursday when Raul Ibanez homered with two outs and two strikes, the Royals ended up winning in 13 innings on Mike Moustakas' walk-off homer. The Royals are barely hanging in there, 4.5 behind the Rays (but also behind the Yankees, Orioles and Indians). They're 7-6 against the Tigers and need to win two of three -- if not all three.

Player to watch: Evan Longoria, Rays. In his past 11 games, he's hitting .146 with one RBI and no extra-base hits. The Rays are in Seattle for three games, although they'll miss Felix Hernandez.

When the Tampa Bay Rays look back at the 2013 season, they may look back to Aug. 14 as a key game. Riding a six-game losing streak, the Rays trailed the Mariners 4-3 entering the bottom of the ninth but rallied to win and end the skid.

When the Tampa Bay Rays look ahead to their future, they may look back to Aug. 15 as a key date. At the MLB owners' meeting in Cooperstown, N.Y., commissioner Bud Selig and Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg addressed the media about the stadium situation in Tampa Bay, which Selig called "very discouraging."

The Rays continue to be a huge success on the field, as they have been since 2008. They also continue to struggle off the field, ranking 29th in the majors in attendance and, according to Sternberg, relying upon revenue sharing to survive.

On Thursday, the Rays beat the Mariners 7-1 as Alex Cobb returned from the DL to pitch five strong innings. Evan Longoria, who had been hitting .197/.295/.365 since July 1, delivered two hits, including a two-run homer. Wil Myers went 3-for-4 with two doubles and four RBIs.

Cobb's biggest out was his final one, striking out Nick Franklin with the bases loaded to end the fifth. The Rays broke open the 1-1 tie with four runs in the bottom of the inning. While Cobb, making his first start since getting hit by a line drive in the head on June 15 and suffering a concussion, should provide a nice lift to the rotation if he pitches like he did before the concussion, it's Longoria's bat that needs to heat up for the Rays. He was an MVP candidate the first three months of the season. They can't rely on the rookie Myers to carry the offense.

While the Rays are focusing on what they need to do on the field to catch the Red Sox, the long-term viability of the team in St. Petersburg remains a concern. The Rays would like to move, but St. Petersburg city officials have threatened legal action against other municipalities. As Sternberg told MLB.com, other owners are getting tired of supporting the Rays. "The key here is to recognize that without the revenue-sharing dollars, we wouldn't even be able to compete or do what we're doing. The other owners are looking at this and saying, 'How many years is this going to be? How much money is this going to be to a failing situation?'"

The difficult question: Would the team be better supported if the ballpark were located in Tampa or another neighboring city? Or does the region just lack the fervor to better support the franchise? Thursday's game drew 13,299 fans; as a comparison, the horrible Brewers, playing in a smaller metro market, drew more than 36,000. The Tampa-St. Pete region is larger than St. Louis, Baltimore, Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati or Cleveland.

So if it's not the size of the market, it's either the ballpark, the location of the ballpark, or a community that just hasn't supported a winning team like you would expect. Trouble is, the Rays' lease runs through 2027. They might be stuck if no solution arises.

Where they're not stuck is on the field. They trail the Red Sox by two games, but are tied in the loss column. They've played fewer games than Boston, however, and have just two off days the rest of the season. It will be important for the starters to pitch deeper into games than the five innings Cobb pitched on Wednesday, or manager Joe Maddon risks burning out the bullpen. They return to AL East play this weekend, hosting Toronto, heading to Baltimore for a short three-game road trip, and then returning to the Trop to host the Yankees. They have only one series left against Boston (Sept. 10-12), so there will be a lot of scoreboard watching down the stretch.

Which is certainly more fun than ballpark searching.

Oh, the ugly … this. The Rays are known for thinking outside the box. So the Rays are 1-0 with the python. New team mascot?

Albert Pujols was placed on the disabled list on Sunday, sort of the exclamation point to the Los Angeles Angels' debacle of a season. Sunday was Hall of Fame induction day -- you may have missed it, considering the lone player elected played his final game in 1890 -- and Pujols' injury and the ceremony in Cooperstown got me wondering: Which of today's players will be future Hall of Famers?

There are probably more than you realize. Pujols, of course, is a slam-dunk Hall of Famer, even factoring in the somewhat disappointing results of his first two seasons with the Angels. With three MVP Awards, 492 home runs, 1,491 RBIs, a .321 average and a career WAR of 92.9 (27th all time among position players) his legacy is ensured, even if his Angels career never lives up to the expectations of his contract.

Based on historical trends, I estimate about 40 current players are future Hall of Famers -- possibly more, although Hall of Fame standards have been growing tougher in recent years, both by the Baseball Writers Association, which pitched a shutout this year, and the Veterans Committee, which has voted in just one post-1950 player since 2001. The steroids era fallout is also affecting voting results.

Anyway, if we look back at 10-year increments we can see how many Hall of Famers were active that season:

1953: 28 players
1963: 36 players
1973: 37 players
1983: 34 players
1993: 19 players

There are fewer players in 1953 because there were fewer teams, just 16 compared to 30 now. Compared to 1983, when there were 26 teams, 1953 still has a higher percentage of players inducted (1.75 per team versus 1.30). Still, 1983 already has 34 players who active that season already in the Hall of Fame, plus potential enshrinees like Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell, Lee Smith, Dale Murphy, Lou Whitaker, Keith Hernandez, Ted Simmons and others (some of whom are off the BBWAA ballot but could be Veterans Committee selections).

OK, to our little list. Here are 40 active players who will be Hall of Famers -- listed in order of most likely to make it. We're at a moment when there are very few sure-thing Hall of Famers -- I count only five -- so the list thus involves a lot speculation. I considered only players who have played in the majors this year, so no Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez or Scott Rolen.

1. Derek Jeter: Would anyone find reason not to vote for Jeter? Well, he did date Mariah Carey. Jeter may seem like a lock as a unanimous selection, but keep in mind that eight voters somehow found reason not to vote for Cal Ripken Jr.

2. Mariano Rivera: No matter what you think of closers, Rivera will be a slam-dunk selection, with his "greatest closer ever" label, World Series rings, universal respect among opponents and writers, and 0.70 postseason ERA in 141 innings. While writers have generally become very generous to relievers -- Dennis Eckersley made it in his first year on the ballot -- I suspect a few won't vote for Rivera out of an anti-reliever stand.

3. Albert Pujols: If his career continues to peter out, that more recent perception may cast a shadow over his dominant run from 2001 to 2010, when he averaged 8.1 WAR per season. Many Hall of Famers never achieved that in one season.

4. Miguel Cabrera: Cabrera is now in his age-30 season, with 53.2 WAR. Through age 30, Pujols had 81.1 WAR. That's how good Pujols was -- nearly 30 wins better than a sure Hall of Famer who arrived in the majors at a younger age. Much of that advantage comes on defense and the basepaths, but Baseball-Reference estimates Pujols created 590 runs more than the average batter through 30, with Cabrera at 447 (and counting).

5. Ichiro Suzuki: He may not get to 3,000 hits in the majors -- he's at 2,706 after Sunday's four-hit game -- but with 1,278 hits in Japan, voters should factor that he didn't arrive in Seattle until he was 27. With his all-around brilliance, he should sail in on the first ballot.

6. Robinson Cano: He has done a lot of things MVP voters like -- hit for average, drive in runs, win a World Series -- and done it with exceptional durability. He's already at 42.4 WAR and needs three to four more peak seasons to ensure lock status, but he's just 30 and still at the top of his game. Considering his durability and age, 3,000 hits isn't out of the question either.

7. Clayton Kershaw: Obviously, he could get hurt, and a lot of pitchers who were dominant through age 25 couldn't carry that success into their 30s. But Kershaw has been handled carefully, is on his way to a third straight ERA title and second Cy Young Award. He's the Koufax of this decade … minus the World Series heroics. But maybe he'll get that shot this year.

8. Felix Hernandez: He's 27 and has won 109 games, despite playing for some of the worst offenses in the history of the game. He has earned 38.8 WAR, which puts him about halfway to Hall of Fame lock status. As with Kershaw, barring injury he'll get there.

9. Roy Halladay: He leads all active pitchers with 65.6 WAR, a total higher than Hall of Famers Bob Feller (65.2), Eckersley (62.5), Juan Marichal (61.9), Don Drysdale (61.2) and Whitey Ford (53.2), to name a few. But what if he never pitches again? Is he in? He has 201 wins and voters still fixate on wins for pitchers. To Halladay's advantage is the general consensus that he was the best pitcher in baseball at his peak, his two Cy Young Awards and two runner-up finishes, three 20-win seasons and the second no-hitter in postseason history.

10. Adrian Beltre: Voters have never been kind to the good-glove third basemen -- excepting Brooks Robinson -- so I may be overrating Beltre's chances. But he also has the chance to reach 500 home runs and 3,000 hits. If he gets to those milestones, that combined with his defensive reputation should get him in.

11. CC Sabathia: He has 200 wins and looked like a possible 300-game winner entering this season, but that 4.65 ERA has everyone wondering how much he has left in the tank at age 33.

12. David Wright: Similar in a lot of ways to Cano -- same age, similar career WAR (Wright is actually a little higher at 45.9) -- so if he plays well into his 30s like Beltre has, he'll get in. But a lot of players have looked like Hall of Famers at 30.

13. Justin Verlander: He still has a lot of work to do, with 134 career wins and just two seasons with an ERA under 3.00.

14. Carlos Beltran: I suspect he'll have a long, slow trek to Hall of Fame status, as his all-around game may be difficult for voters to properly assess. His having just two top-10 MVP finishes will work against him, but he has eight 100-RBI seasons, should reach 400 home runs, is one of the great percentage basestealers of all time and should reach 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBIs.

15. Mike Trout: Well, of course this is premature; he's only 21. He could be Willie Mays, he could be Cesar Cedeno. I'm betting on Mays.

16. Evan Longoria" Beloved in sabermetric circles, he could use that one monster MVP season to create more of a Hall of Fame aura around him.

17. Joey Votto: Will voters appreciate the on-base percentage in 20 years?

18. Joe Mauer: Like Votto, Mauer has an MVP award that helps his case; any time you can argue "he was the best player in the game" about a guy, his candidacy shoots up in the minds of voters. He's not going to end up with the big home run and RBI totals but his .323 career average, .405 OBP and solid defense (three Gold Gloves) will garner support. He has to stay healthy and probably needs to stay behind the plate a few more years.

19. Andy Pettitte: See Jack Morris. Probably a slow crawl on the BBWAA ballot, perhaps hurt by admitting he tried PEDs (although he seems to have escaped the stain), with eventual election by the Veterans Committee. With 252 wins, five World Series rings and 19 postseason wins, it's difficult to ignore his fame and constant presence in October.

20. Bryce Harper: Most home runs before turning 21: Mel Ott 61, Tony Conigliaro 56, Ken Griffey Jr. 38, Harper 37, Mickey Mantle 36, Frank Robinson 34.

21. Buster Posey: Yadier Molina may be the most valuable catcher right now, but Posey is the better Hall of Fame candidate.

22. David Price: Pitchers become Hall of Famers in their 30s, not their 20s, but Price is already 66-36 with a Cy Young award.

23. Dustin Pedroia: I'm a little skeptical how he'll age into 30s, but Pedroia seems like the kind of player voters would love to put in if he becomes a borderline candidate. He does have an MVP award and recognition for his all-around play, but since he's not a big home run or RBI guy, he'll have to remain durability and approach 3,000 career hits.

24. Manny Machado: He's in a big slump right now but we have to remember he's still just 20 years old. But few players have shown this kind of ability at his age and his defense -- Jim Palmer said recently he makes plays at third base that Brooks Robinson could not have made -- is already Hall-of-Fame caliber.

25. Todd Helton: We can just about close the book on him. The .318/.417/.541 career line is impressive, although voters will have to adjust for Coors Field. The 361 home runs and 1,378 RBIs are short of Hall of Fame standards for recent first base inductees. Considering Larry Walker's poor support so far, Helton will probably have to get in through the back door.

26. Andrew McCutchen: How about an MVP Award for 2013?

27. Giancarlo Stanton: Injuries are an issue, but I'm still betting on him (or Harper) to be the premier power hitter of his generation.

28. Troy Tulowitzki: He has to stay healthy, of course, but he has 30.5 WAR so far, in his age-28 season. Jeter had 36.8 and Ripken 50.1 through age 28, but you don't have to be Derek Jeter or Cal Ripken to make the Hall of Fame. Recent inductee Barry Larkin had 30.9 WAR through age 28 and only played 140 games three seasons after that (although did play until he was 40).

29. Miguel Tejada: Tough one here. He has the PED rumors, but he also has six 100-RBI seasons as a shortstop, an MVP award, more than 300 home runs and he will top 2,400 hits. Perhaps a Veterans Committee choice?

30. Prince Fielder: He hasn't hit 40 home runs since 2009 and is going through the worst season of his career. Still, he's just 29 and has 277 home runs and 838 RBIs. He has been the most durable player in the game since his rookie season, but his body type certainly raises questions about how he'll do as he gets into his mid-30s. If he does remain healthy and reaches some of the big milestones he's going to be a Morris-like controversial candidate, because his career WAR (currently 22.4) isn't going to reach Hall of Fame standards.

31. Madison Bumgarner: He turns 24 on Aug. 1 and already has 46 career wins, two World Series rings and is in the midst of his best season. Check back in 10 years.

32. Yasiel Puig: Is he not in already?

33. Andrelton Simmons: We're starting to get into the area of crazy projections. Hey, a lot of Hall of Famers didn't look like Hall of Famers their first few seasons in the league. Anyway, the Braves have four young players you could reasonably project long-shot HOF status onto -- Simmons, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Craig Kimbrel. I like Simmons; he'll have to have an Omar Vizquel-type career with most of his value coming from his glove, but what a glove it is.

34. Chase Utley: He basically has no chance to get in via the BBWAA because his career counting totals will be well short of Hall standards. His five-year peak from 2005 to 2009 was among the best ever for a second baseman -- in fact, since 1950, from ages 26 to 30, the only players with a higher WAR were seven guys named Mays, Pujols, Yastrzemski, Aaron, Bonds, Boggs and Schmidt. If he can stay healthy for a few more years -- a bit of a dubious proposition -- he enters Veterans Committee territory.

35. Jose Fernandez: This could be Chris Sale or Stephen Strasburg or some other hotshot young pitcher.

36. Tim Hudson: I believe pitching standards will have to change, as the idea that you need 300 wins eventually subsides in this day where starters just don't as many decisions as they once did. Hudson is out for the year after breaking his ankle and, at the age of 38, you have to worry about his future. But he does have 205 wins and one of the best winning percentages of all time at .649. He sounds like a Veterans Committee choice in 2044.

37. Nick Franklin: The point isn't that I think Franklin is a Hall of Fame player, but that somebody like Franklin will turn into a Hall of Famer. It could BE Franklin, it could be Wil Myers, it could be Marcell Ozuna, it could be Jurickson Profar. As for Franklin, he has reached the majors at 22, has flashed power (10 home runs and 12 doubles in 52 games) and shown a good approach at the plate. You never know.

38. September call-up to be named: Xander Bogaerts? Oscar Taveras? Miguel Sano?

39. David Ortiz: There's no denying the fame and the peak value -- he finished in the top five in MVP voting five consecutive seasons -- but he has several strikes against him, notably the PED allegations (Ortiz was mentioned in the Mitchell report) and the fact that he may not be the best DH eligible (that would be Edgar Martinez, with a career WAR of 68.3 to Ortiz's 42.7). Papi is at 420 home runs; if he gets to 500 (round number!), his chances go up, but like all the guys tied to steroids, he'll be a controversial candidate.

40. Alex Rodriguez: He hasn't actually suited up in the majors yet this season, but let's assume he does to be eligible for this list. I also assume, at some point in the future -- 20 years? 25 years? 75 years? -- the moral outrage against the steroids users eventually subsides. Maybe, like Deacon White, A-Rod makes it some 130 years after he plays his final game.

The big questions for this season’s All-Star selections as we headed into Saturday’s selection show: Would Yasiel Puig make it? Who backs up Miguel Cabrera at third base in the American League from a strong field of candidates? Who represents the Astros?

But I’m left with this one: Could the American League have chosen a worse, more boring squad?

Remember, the All-Star squads are chosen by a four-tiered system: The fans vote in the starters, the players vote for the reserves at each position, plus the top five starting pitchers and top three relievers, the managers choose the rest of the squad (with their choices limited due to having to name a representative for each team) and then the fans vote again for the final man.

Got all that?

The player vote is the one that usually causes the biggest mistakes. Last season, for example, the players voted in Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair as the backup first baseman even though he was a platoon player with 28 RBIs at the time of selection. Similarly, Lance Lynn, who had a big April, was voted in as one of the top five starters even though he ranked 28th in the National League in ERA. The ripple effect for selections like those end up causing more worthy All-Stars to not make it. This season, a similar thing happened, most notably with Torii Hunter named as an outfield reserve in the AL.

My quick reaction to this season's American League and National League squads:

Best fan selection: Chris Davis, Orioles. Hardly a household name before the season, his offensive numbers are just too good to ignore, and he’s a deserving starter over Prince Fielder.

Worst fan selection: Bryce Harper, Nationals. The fans generally do a good job -- better than the players -- and while I don’t see Harper as a glaring mistake (I’d put him on my NL roster as a reserve), he did miss significant time with the knee injury. Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates or Carlos Gomez of the Brewers would be a more deserving starter (both should be starting over Carlos Beltran as well).

Most controversial AL selection: Justin Verlander, Tigers. He’s not having a terrific season, with a 9-5 record and lukewarm 3.54 ERA, but I don’t have a huge problem with American League manager Jim Leyland selecting the guy who’s been the best pitcher in baseball the previous two seasons.

Most controversial NL selection: Marco Scutaro, Giants. The NL roster is actually pretty solid, but you can nitpick Scutaro and Allen Craig. With Matt Carpenter being voted in by the players, manager Bruce Bochy didn't have to add a third second baseman, but he did select his guy and take a slot away from a deep pool of outfield candidates -- Puig and Hunter Pence were added to the final-vote group, but Starling Marte, Jay Bruce and Shin-Soo Choo all had All-Star first halves. But, hey, even All-Star teams need professional hitters.

How the Astros screwed the AL: Salvador Perez being voted in by the players as the backup catcher meant Jason Castro was named as a third catcher to represent the Astros. Actually, this is a little unfair, since Castro is having a season equal to or better than Perez’s. But having three catchers on the squad takes a slot away from one of the much more deserving third basemen -- Evan Longoria, Josh Donaldson or Adrian Beltre.

How the players screwed the AL: Hunter rode a .370 April to an All-Star berth, but he’s down to .307 with just five home runs. It’s not a great season for AL outfielders, but Hunter is kind of a joke selection: He ranks 24th among AL outfielders in FanGraphs WAR (0.9). Brett Gardner or Jacoby Ellsbury are better options.

Weirdest selection: Brett Cecil, Blue Jays. The Jays already had Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, so there was no need to add Cecil. Don't get me wrong, he is having a nice season -- 1.43 ERA, 50 strikeouts in 44 innings -- but this is also a guy with a 4.79 career ERA entering the season. (Granted, mostly as a starter.) Rangers starter Derek Holland was the better choice here.

Team with a gripe: The A’s have a better record than the Tigers yet ended up with one All-Star to Detroit’s six.

Most-deserving guy who didn't make it, AL: Longoria. Seventy All-Stars were named today, but somehow one of the top 10 players in the game didn't make it.

Most-deserving guy who didn't make it, NL: Not including the players eligible in the final-player vote, I'd go with Pirates outfielder Marte or Braves defensive whiz Andrelton Simmons.

Worst final-player vote ever: American League. Choose from Joaquin Benoit, Steve Delabar, David Robertson, Tanner Scheppers and Koji Uehara. Can I go to a dentist appointment instead? Unless you have a fetish for right-handed relief pitchers, this isn’t exactly the best way to get fans enthused about the All-Star final vote. Why not at least have a final-man vote with Longoria, Beltre and Donaldson?

Most predictable final-player vote ever: National League. Is there any way Puig doesn’t beat out Ian Desmond, Freddie Freeman, Adrian Gonzalez and Pence for the final vote?

In a perfect world, Jim Leyland does this: The AL pitching staff is a little shaky, so he should try to ride his top starting pitchers. Assuming Max Scherzer starts, I’d pitch him two innings and then bring in White Sox lefty Chris Sale for two more innings so he can face the top of the NL lineup that would probably feature Carlos Gonzalez and Joey Votto. Yu Darvish and Felix Hernandez take over from there and hand the ball to Mariano Rivera, with Glen Perkins and Cecil used as situational lefties if needed.

Offensively, Cabrera and Davis should play the entire game, as they’ve clearly been the dominant offensive forces in the AL. Frankly, I’m not too thrilled with the AL bench, especially the outfield. Mike Trout and Bautista should also play the entire game. Use Fielder and Encarnacion to pinch hit as needed for J.J. Hardy or Adam Jones. Manny Machado can replace Cabrera in the late innings if the AL is ahead.

In a perfect world, Bruce Bochy does this: The NL squad looks much better on paper. Assuming Matt Harvey starts, he should be followed up with Clayton Kershaw and Cliff Lee (Adam Wainwright is scheduled to pitch on Sunday and will be unavailable). From there, I’d match up -- Madison Bumgarner or Jordan Zimmermann -- and then turn the game over to three dominant relievers: Jason Grilli, Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. (Kudos to Bochy for going with all starting pitchers after the mandatory three relievers.)

Offensively, David Wright should play the whole game in front of the home fans, and assuming Paul Goldschmidt gets the nod as the designated hitter, I’d let him and Votto play the entire nine as well. Without a regular center fielder in the starting lineup (although Beltran, Gonzalez and Harper have all played there in the past), I’d get McCutchen in the game as soon as possible, with apologies to Gomez. I’d hit for Brandon Phillips in a key situation with a better bat like Buster Posey or Craig or maybe for Gonzalez against a left-hander (although he’s hit very well against lefties this season).

And Puig? Yes, once he makes the team, I’d like to see him play as well.

Tristan Cockcroft joins me to break down the AL MVP race. Yes, Miguel Cabrera is the favorite as we near the halfway point, but is Manny Machado -- with all those doubles and all those doubles he takes -- a possible MVP contender?

I know, I know: You're tired of stat nerds professing their love for the Tampa Bay Rays, a franchise that hasn't even reached the World Series since 2008, let alone ever won one.

Why do we love the Rays? They compete despite usually ranking near the bottom in payroll. Why write about them on a night they lost 10-8 to the Boston Red Sox in 14 innings? They always find a way to compete, a credit to the front office's ability to build depth; a credit to the managerial genius of Joe Maddon and his coaching staff; a credit to the players, for their ability to adapt to situations that Maddon creates for them.

This year, the Rays are winning in a new way: They score runs. Cy Young winner David Price won just once in nine starts before landing on the disabled list; like Price, starters Jeremy Hellickson and Roberto Hernandez have ERAs of more than 5.00. In fact, of the 73 American League pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings, those three rank Nos. 54, 59 and 63 in ERA; that is decidedly un-Tampa like.

Instead, the Rays are averaging 4.97 runs per game, a sizable increase from last year's 4.30 per game. If they keep up that pace, that's a 107-run jump from 2012. After a 4-9 start in which the offense hit just .204 and averaged 3.0 runs per game, the Rays are 30-20 and have scored the most runs per game in the majors.

Yes, there's Evan Longoria, and he's hitting well, but one man does not make an offense. What Maddon and general manager Andrew Friedman have done is construct a team of multi-position platoons. The Rays really have only four regulars: third baseman Longoria, shortstop Yunel Escobar, center fielder Desmond Jennings and first baseman James Loney, although even Loney sits against some left-handers.

Beyond that it's a bunch of interlocking parts that exploit the positional flexibility of the roster. Second baseman/right fielder Ben Zobrist has started 33 games at second and 21 in right (plus four at shortstop) and often changes positions within a game. How rare is his ability to do this? Well, he's the only player in more than 100 years to play at least 50 games at second and 50 games in right field in the same season, and he has done it three times. The only other player to do it was Danny Murphy, back in 1908.

It's so rare that even if you cut the games played down to 35 at each position, you find only four players since World War II to do it: Mark DeRosa in 2008, Tony Phillips in 1992, Bill Russell in 1971 and Billy Goodman in 1951. Basically, Zobrist is a freak, especially since he plays both positions well. But it also takes a manager to think outside the box, and it's easy to forget that Maddon basically created a new position for Zobrist, the hybrid right fielder/second baseman. Longoria is the most valuable player on the roster, but Zobrist is the fulcrum around which the roster operates. Matt Joyce plays right field and left field; Kelly Johnson has played left and second base; Sean Rodriguez has started at four different positions.

Aside from the versatility in the field, it's not an accident the Rays have found success at the plate. Loney was a disappointment with the Dodgers, a first baseman who never hit with the power he flashed early in his career. The Rays didn't see a disappointment, but a guy who could hit right-handers and carry a good glove. With a .327/.387/.519 line, Loney is certainly exceeding expectations, but he did hit a respectable .293/.358/.424 against right-handers from 2009 to 2011 before struggling in 2012. Kelly Johnson had 20-homer seasons in 2010 and 2011; the Rays saw those numbers instead of the guy who struggled in 2012.

There's also room for the offense to improve: Top prospect Wil Myers is heating up in Triple-A, hitting .380 with eight home runs and 27 RBIs over his past 16 games heading into Monday night. The headline on a Tampa Bay Times story on Monday read "Myers looks ready but has nowhere to play," which I don't quite agree with. Designated hitter Luke Scott is hitting .215/.320/.336 -- after not hitting last year -- so it may be time to give up on him. Maddon has somehow found 97 plate appearances for Sam Fuld and his .190 average. So there's pretty clearly room for Myers. Sure, it may mean making Zobrist a -- gasp! -- permanent second baseman, with Ryan Roberts not really contributing, and pushing Joyce or Johnson to the DH slot. Or maybe Zobrist plays more shortstop, like he did at the end of last season.

Either way, Myers should be up soon. I'm pretty sure Maddon can figure out a way to use everybody.

Now, about that pitching staff. ...

In April, Jose Bautista had turned into a three true outcomes type of player: home run, walk or strikeout. He hit seven home runs and had a slugging percentage over .500, but was hitting just .200.

Was he just finding his stroke as he returned from last year's injury problems? Or was he no longer the MVP-caliber hitter of 2010 and 2011, when he hit 54 and 43 home runs, drew walks, and hit .260 and then .302?

He hit his first two home runs of May on Sunday in a 12-4 pasting of the Red Sox to raise his overall batting to .246/.360/.544 -- respectable, if not quite 2011-level Bautista. And the Blue Jays need 2011-level Bautista if they have any hope of recovering from their awful start.

I'm not quite sure he's there yet. While Bautista can crush any fastball -- he's hitting .333 with six home runs in 51 at-bats ending with a fastball this season -- it was his production against "soft" stuff that allowed him to hit above .300 in 2011. Check out these two charts on his batting average against soft stuff in 2011, and then the past two seasons:



As you can see, that's a lot of red (hot) in 2011 and a lot of blue (cold) since. This year, he's 7-for-51 (.137) with three home runs against soft stuff. He split his home runs on Sunday -- one came off a first-pitch Ryan Dempster fastball, the other off an 0-1 83 mph slider from Clayton Mortensen. Bautista is a dead pull hitter -- only one home run to center and one to right-center over the past two seasons -- which can leave him vulnerable to breaking stuff on the outside part of the plate.

I haven't seen enough evidence that he's going to punish those pitches like he did a couple years ago, so I would guess he'll be prone to ups and downs throughout the season. He's still a huge threat at the plate, but not the MVP bat of 2011.

REST OF THE WEEKEND

Three stars
1. Shelby Miller, Cardinals. One hit. Twenty-seven down. In a 3-0 win over the Rockies on Friday, the St. Louis rookie became the fifth pitcher since 1961 to allow the first batter to reach base and then retire 27 in a row, joining John Lackey (2006 Angels), Jerry Reuss (1982 Dodgers), Jim Bibby (1981 Pirates) and Woodie Fryman (1966 Pirates). Miller had the Rockies guessing wrong -- or merely looking -- all night long, as he got 30 called strikes, the second-most by a starter this season. Eight of those closed out Miller's 13 strikeouts. Just a dominant performance. In fact, for all the attention given to Matt Harvey this year, compare the two young right-handers:

Miller: 5-2, 1.58 ERA, 45.2 IP, 29 H, 3 HR, 11 BB, 51 SO, .179 AVG
Harvey: 4-0, 1.44 ERA, 56.1 IP, 27 H, 3 HR, 14 BB, 62 SO, .142 AVG

2. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals. Not to be outdone, Wainwright took a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Saturday, finishing with a two-hit shutout in another 3-0 win for the Cards. Wainwright improved to 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA and had strong words about his rookie teammate: "You follow Roger Clemens a couple times like I have been, it makes you focus a little bit more," he said. "Once you see Shelby mow through a lineup like he has all year, you want to go out there and do it, too." Kudos also to Cards manager Mike Matheny for leaving in Miller to throw 113 pitches, and Wainwright to throw 120. In this day when managers are too willing to yank starters at 100 pitches, it is good to see a manager let his guys go the distance.

3. Chris Sale, White Sox, and Jon Lester, Red Sox. Two more one-hit shutouts, Lester on Friday, Sale on Sunday. Can't anyone here hit anymore? Lester got 12 ground-ball outs as he joined Pedro Martinez (2000), Hideo Nomo (2001), Curt Schilling (2007) and Josh Beckett (2011) as Red Sox pitchers to throw a one-hit, no-walk shutout in the live ball era. But Sale threw his wearing the so-ugly-they're-cool 1983 throwback uniforms.

Clutch performance of the weekend
Evan Longoria, for his two-out, two-run, bottom-of-the-ninth home run to give the Rays a dramatic 8-7 win over the Padres on Saturday. My favorite part: There's some sort of picnic area in left-center (yes, "picnic area" and "domed stadium" is kind of an oxymoron) where the ball landed, and it looks like half the fans out there didn't realize it was a game-winning home run.

First off, credit Ben Zobrist for a drawing the two-out walk on a 3-2 pitch from Huston Street, working back from a 1-2 count. Street knew that was the batter he had to get. "You get him 1-2, you've got to make a pitch," he said. "I'm frustrated about that just as much as leaving a pitch to Longoria in the middle of the plate." The Rays had led 6-2 before the Padres scored five in the seventh, leading Joe Maddon to say it would have been one of Tampa's worst three losses of the year. "But you can't go to the dance playing like that. When you get leads, you've got to put the other team away. I'm not happy with that. That's inappropriate. That's got to stop," he said.

The Rays finished the sweep on Sunday, however -- their fifth win in a row -- and clawed a game over .500.

Best game
Well, that Padres-Rays game was pretty good. Miller's game was mesmerizing. Toronto's win over Boston on Saturday featured Adam Lind's go-ahead home run in the ninth off Junichi Tazawa, after the Red Sox had tied it in the bottom of the eighth. But I'll go with Cleveland's 7-6 win over Justin Verlander and the Tigers on Saturday. Or Cleveland's 4-3 win on Sunday, in which the Indians tied it in the ninth and won it in the 10th, leading to this quote from Mark Reynolds, who delivered the go-ahead single: "With two strikes, I'm just trying to shorten up my swing and get something into play," he said. Wait ... since when does Reynolds shorten up his swing? Gotta love baseball.

The Indians took two of three from the Tigers to move into a first-place tie with Detroit.

Hitter on the rise: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
He had six home runs through April 21, but his average fell to .173 after a three-strikeout game on April 25. In 16 games, he's hit .419/.478/.694, with three more home runs, eight doubles and nearly as many walks (six) as strikeouts (eight). He has six three-hit games in that stretch, and he's showing he's more than just an all-or-nothing slugger. He's showing he's a guy who is going to be the Cubs' cleanup hitter for a long time.

Pitcher on the rise: Zach McAllister, Indians
Don't believe in the Indians? Don't believe in the rotation? McAllister is starting to look like another solid option alongside Justin Masterson. He didn't get a decision in Sunday's game but pitched a solid six innings. He's 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA and a decent 33/13 SO/BB ratio in 43.2 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher but has allowed just five home runs in seven starts. If he keeps the ball on the right side of the fence he has a chance to be successful.

Brandon Phillips play of the week
This one was pretty.

Happy Mother's Day
Pablo Sandoval uses his pink bat to launch one into McCovey Cove. Tim Lincecum backed up Sandoval with his best outing of the year as the Giants took the final three of four from the Braves. Tough stretch coming up for the Giants, however: 20 of their next 30 on the road, including series in Toronto, Colorado, St. Louis, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Atlanta.

Team on the rise: Indians
They're 12-2 over the past 14, hitting .305 with 24 home runs -- and that stretch does not include that 19-6 win over Houston earlier in the season. The pitching staff has a 2.98 ERA with 13 home runs allowed. The Indians lead the majors in home runs and OPS, and guys like Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Lonnie Chisenhall have room to do better.

Team on the fall: A's
Awful week, losing four to Cleveland and then two of three to Seattle. They scored more than three runs just once in seven games as injuries to outfielders Coco Crisp, Chris Young and Josh Reddick have left them playing Michael Taylor and Brandon Moss in the outfield (with Daric Barton or Nate Freiman replacing Moss at first base). Jarrod Parker is still scuffling (6.86 ERA, four walks in 6.1 innings on Saturday). The A's just need to get healthy, and they didn't hit their stride last year until July (they were 37-42 and 13 games out on July 1), so they may be down now, but hardly out.

We've brought back the Defensive Player of the Month Award for the 2013 season, and our choice for April, Orioles third baseman Manny Machado, was in the ESPN spotlight with a pair of stories on Tuesday.

The Stats & Info Blog ran through Machado's defensive credentials since his recall. Breaking those down into those accumulated in the season's first month, they are:

--5 defensive runs saved, tied with Evan Longoria and Matt Dominguez for the most in the majors at third base.

--13 "Out of Zone" plays (in other words, plays made outside the zones in which third basemen most often turn batted balls into outs), tied for the most with Dominguez.

--6 Web Gems, the most of any player in baseball, and twice as many as any of the eight other nominees we considered combined.

The voting was handled by ESPN.com writers, baseball analysts and researchers from ESPN and Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), and includes Doug Glanville, Jayson Stark, Jonah Keri and Eric Karabell. Each voted for a first-, second- and third-place finisher, with points awarded on a 5-3-1 basis

Machado was a well-deserved winner, earning seven of the 10 first-place votes, but also getting defensive props for the month were:

Starling Marte, Pirates LF
Marte was the runner-up to Machado in our voting. He led major league left fielders with seven defensive runs saved, three more than any other player at that position.

One of the reasons that Marte rates so highly statistically is because he had two home run-robbing catches during the month -- in other words, plays that directly saved runs. They weren’t your classic Mike Trout, scale-the-wall leaping grabs. In each instance, Marte raced back to a low left-field fence and made a reaching grab to snag a would-be home run.

For more on Marte's impact this month, check out the ESPN Insider piece from Scott Spratt on the significant improvements to the Pirates' defense.

Evan Longoria, Rays/Matt Dominguez, Astros
This was a good month for third basemen. We mentioned that Longoria and Dominguez finished tied with Machado in runs saved at the position.

Longoria had three Web Gems, second most among our nominees, and was slightly better than Dominguez in terms of good play/misplay & error ratio (documented by Baseball Info Solutions' video tracking).

Norichika Aoki/Carlos Gomez, Brewers
Aoki and Gomez both had great months from a statistical perspective. Aoki led right fielders with nine defensive runs saved. Gomez had the most among center fielders with seven.

It seemed odd to us that both had such high ratings, and in surveying Brewers fans on Twitter, we got a partial explanation why. The Brewers' coaching staff has been playing their outfielders, particularly Aoki, very deep. That's allowed them to take away a few potential extra-base hits, with a limited cost thus far.

That's reflected in both their numbers. BIS' range rating (a "plus-minus system") has Aoki taking away 17 bases above what the average fielder would take away on balls hit to the deepest parts of the park (in other words, a bunch of extra-base hits) and being five bases below average on balls hit to the shallowest parts of the outfield. Gomez has taken away 10 bases on deep balls, and one on the shallow balls.

It's an interesting strategic decision, and one that bears watching throughout the regular season to see if the numbers hold up.

Andrelton Simmons, Braves
This isn't the first time we've talked about Simmons' defense and it certainly won't be the last. Simmons led shortstops with six defensive runs saved for the month. He converted 92 percent of the balls hit into shortstop "zones" (the areas in which a shortstop gets outs more than half the time) into outs, second best in the majors to Cliff Pennington.

Simmons had an outstanding month. Machado just happened to be a little bit better.

Yes, it's the time of the year ... awards predictions! Here are the collective thoughts of the writers from across the SweetSpot network.

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
Last year, the SweetSpot bloggers correctly picked Miguel Cabrera as the AL MVP winner. How quickly we fall in love with the new kid on the block! I'm not surprised that Mike Trout is the MVP favorite by the SweetSpot bloggers -- but I am surprised by his runaway vote total, as he collected 33 of the 47 first-place votes (including mine). If wisdom of the crowds proves true, it should be a landslide MVP result for Trout.

Amazingly, Cabrera only received two first-place votes (remember, he ranked ahead of Trout in our recent BBTN500 voting). This probably reflects the difference in the mind-set between the bloggers -- who are going to pay more attention to advanced metrics like WAR -- and the more conventional group of analysts (writers, announcers, former players) who voted in the BBTN500.

The network bloggers must have high hopes for the Rays since Evan Longoria ranked third in the balloting. And maybe the Yankees won't collapse just yet: Robinson Cano finished fourth in the balloting.

Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.

1. Mike Trout, 574 points (33 first-place votes)
2. Miguel Cabrera, 374 points (2)
3. Evan Longoria, 268 points (3)
4. Robinson Cano, 238 points (4)
5. Adrian Beltre, 101 points (1)
6. Yoenis Cespedes, 92 points (0)
7. Jose Bautista, 85 points (2)
8. Prince Fielder, 70 points (1)
9. Albert Pujols, 62 points (1)
10. Jose Reyes, 43 points (0)

Others -- Josh Hamilton (41 points), Dustin Pedroia (34), Joe Mauer (21), Alex Gordon (18), Matt Wieters (9), Adam Jones (7), Curtis Granderson (7), Edwin Encarnacion (6), Carlos Santana (6), Ian Kinsler (6), Jacoby Ellsbury (6)

CY YOUNG

No surprise here: Justin Verlander collected 28 first-place votes to easily outdistance last season's Cy Young winner, David Price. Keep an eye on Yu Darvish: He finished ahead of Felix Hernandez in the voting. Reigning NL CY Young winner R.A. Dickey is now with Toronto and he collected just one first-place vote.

Points on a 7-4-3 basis.

1. Justin Verlander, 258 points (28 first-place votes)
2. David Price, 129 points (4)
3. Yu Darvish, 81 points (5)
4. Felix Hernandez, 70 points (5)
5. Jered Weaver, 34 points (3)
6. R.A. Dickey, 15 points (1)

Others -- Chris Sale (9 points), CC Sabathia (8), Max Scherzer (6), Josh Johnson (6), Jarrod Parker (6), Jon Lester (6), Doug Fister (3), Matt Moore (3), Jake Peavy (3)

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

The rookie race is even more wide open, since most of the top rookie prospects will begin the year in the minors, including Tampa Bay outfielder Wil Myers, who led our balloting with 17 first-place votes. Outfielders Aaron Hicks of the Twins and Jackie Bradley of the Red Sox will break camp with their big league teams, and that helped them finish second and third in the voting.

Points on a 5-3-1 basis.

1. Wil Myers, 111 points (17 first-place votes)
2. Aaron Hicks, 71 points (8)
3. Jackie Bradley, 65 points (8)
4. Jurickson Profar, 46 points (4)
5. Dylan Bundy, 29 points (4)
6. Brandon Maurer, 24 points (2)
7. Trevor Bauer, 21 points (1)
8. Dan Straily, 12 points (1)

Others -- Bruce Rondon (6 points), Mike Olt (5), Mike Zunino (4), Chris Archer (3), Avisail Garcia (1), Conor Gillaspie (1), Nick Tepesch (1), Kevin Gausman (1)

Does pressure exist in baseball? We've made heroes and goats of those who performed -- or didn't perform -- in the game's biggest moments. But those are usually isolated snippets of time in a postseason game, when the results of one at-bat or a few games serve to define your character (fairly or not).

Pressure in the regular season is different; it's more about external expectations and a player's importance to his club. Some players thrive under that spotlight; some pretend it doesn't exist. Tommy Lasorda put it another way: "Pressure is a word that is misused in our vocabulary. When you start thinking of pressure, it's because you've started to think of failure."

For the most part, major leaguers are oblivious to pressure because they are good; they expect success, not failure. But that doesn't mean pressure isn't out there in some form. For example, did Albert Pujols struggle last April because of the pressure of his new contract? It's certainly possible.

Here are the 10 guys I would suggest are facing the most pressure this season.


10. Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Marlins moved Ramirez off shortstop not just because they signed Jose Reyes a year ago but because they also believed Ramirez no longer had the range required to play the position. The defensive metrics back up that assertion -- minus-39 defensive runs saved over the three seasons, in what amounts to about two years' worth of innings at shortstop -- but Ramirez wants to play short and that's where he'll open the season. After hitting .313 over his first five seasons, Ramirez also has to show there's some potency left in his bat after hitting just .252 over the past two seasons.

9. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
It's easier to be the big man on campus when winning results are hoped for more than assumed. But now that the Blue Jays are expected to be relevant, the spotlight will shine more intensely on Bautista. Is he the guy to carry a Jays team that many believe can -- or should -- reach the World Series? He's reportedly healthy after last year's wrist injury, but he has to prove he can come closer to 2011's monster numbers (.302/.447/.608, 43 home runs) than 2012's more pedestrian ones (.241/.358/.527).

8. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
The pressure on Wainwright won't come from a heavy-handed local media or fan base with unrealistic demands, but from the knowledge that Kyle Lohse won't be here and Chris Carpenter's career may be over. With young pitchers like Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly battling for the starting rotation, the mantle of staff leader falls on Wainwright's shoulders -- and surgically repaired right elbow. He obviously had a positive return from Tommy John surgery a year ago (14-13, 3.94 ERA), but it's important to note it wasn't really that great of a year -- his ERA ranked just 31st among qualified National League starters. But a strong second half has many believing Wainwright can return to his pre-injury Cy Young contender status.

7. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox spent enough money in the offseason -- Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Koji Uehara, Jonny Gomes -- that club officials certainly expect a rebound from last season's disaster and a return to contender status. To do that, however, they'll need a year like Ellsbury gave them in 2011, when he hit .321 with 32 home runs and finished second in the MVP vote. Ellsbury hasn't hit more than nine homers in any other season, so as an impending free agent he's also looking to earn a mega-payday by showing that power spike wasn't a fluke.

6. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
As always, there's a lot of pressure on Longoria to lead a Tampa offense that isn't going to scare a lot of opponents. Aside from that, he has to prove he can stay healthy after missing significant chunks of action the past two years -- and rejoin that discussion of being one of the top five players in baseball -- and show that $100 million extension the Rays gave him in the offseason wasn't a mistake.

5. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
With no Josh Hamilton and veteran leader Michael Young jettisoned to Philly, this is now Beltre's team, so to speak. He's the star of the Rangers' show and with that comes the pressure to carry a lineup that scored 47 fewer runs in 2012 than it did in 2011. Beltre hit .321 with 36 home runs, but he turns 34 in April, that precarious age when decline often starts setting in.

4. Josh Hamilton, Los Angeles Angels
Speaking of Hamilton, when you leave a winning franchise to sign a $125 million deal with your former team's biggest rival, yeah, I'd say the intensity of expectations will be pretty high. Will the money affect him? How will he hit outside of Texas? What was up with all the strikeouts last year? Sure, it helps having Pujols and Mike Trout around to help carry the offensive burden, but Pujols' struggles suggest pressure to live up to a huge contract can arguably affect even the biggest stars. Anything short of Hamilton helping lead the Angels to a division title will be considered a disappointment.

3. Justin Upton, Atlanta Braves
Considering the months of trade rumors surrounding Upton -- and then everybody saying the Braves stole him from the Diamondbacks -- he has to show he was worth all the hype. He has hit .307 with a .937 OPS in Arizona in his career, .250 with a .731 OPS on the road. Did the Braves trade for a guy who was an MVP candidate in 2011 or merely a good, but inconsistent, player?

2. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees
No Nick Swisher. No Russell Martin. No Curtis Granderson for April. No Alex Rodriguez for who knows how long. A declining Mark Teixeira and an aging Derek Jeter trying to return from a broken ankle. Two outfielders in Ichiro Suzuki and Brett Gardner with little power. Oh, yeah, you're also playing in the toughest media market in the sport, coming off a postseason in which you hit .075 and playing for a huge contract as an impending free agent. Enjoy the season, Mr. Cano.

1. Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
When you admit you signed with the Dodgers because of the hefty paycheck ($147 million over six years) it's not just a refreshing bit of honesty (although I respect him for saying it). With that comment, Greinke put the bull's-eye on himself. Heck, Dodgers management believes they're starting a dynasty here; they already have Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp, but it's Greinke -- a guy with a 3.83 ERA over the past three seasons -- with the most pressure on the team.

Back in 2008, just a few days after reaching the majors, Evan Longoria signed a six-year, $17.5 million contract that included club options for 2014 through 2016.

It was really the first deal of its kind, since Longoria and the Rays had agreed to the parameters of the deal before Longoria had ever played a major league game. For Longoria, it provided lifetime security, in case of a career-ending injury or the possibility that he never developed into a star player. For the Rays, the risk was minimal and the potential savings enormous. Longoria did, of course, develop into a great player and the Rays have benefited from the most team-friendly contract in the majors. Even in 2016, Longoria will make just $11.5 million (or $14 million depending on MVP voting results). At either salary, it projects as a bargain for a potential MVP candidate.

Still, Monday's announcement that Longoria has agreed to a six-year, $100 million contract extension came as a bit of a surprise. Wasn't David Wright the third baseman who was supposed to sign the big extension this offseason?

Here's how Longoria's salaries now line up, assuming an annual average salary of $16.67 million for the six-year extension:

2013 (age 27): $6 million
2014 (age 28): $7.5 million
2015 (age 29): $11 million
2016 (age 30): $11.5 to $14 million
2017 (age 31): $16.67 million
2018 (age 32): $16.67 million
2019 (age 33): $16.67 million
2020 (age 34): $16.67 million
2021 (age 35): $16.67 million
2022 (age 36): $16.67 million
2023 (age 37): Club option

Overall, that's at least 10 more seasons of Longoria for $138.5 million, plus the 2023 club option. Compare that to some other contracts: Prince Fielder, nine years for $214 million; Adrian Gonzalez, seven years for $154 million; Matt Kemp, eight years for $160 million; Albert Pujols, 10 years for $240 million; Joey Votto, 10 years for $225 million.

Longoria at $16.67 million per season still looks like a relative bargain, even into his mid-30s. It's not without risk, however. Longoria did play just 74 games in 2012 because of a partially torn left hamstring. He missed a month in 2011 with an oblique injury.

An obvious comparison to Longoria's deal is the six-year, $100 million contract that Ryan Zimmerman signed with the Nationals, a deal that takes Zimmerman from 2014 through 2019, his age-29 through age-34 seasons. Here's a comparison of each player's wins above replacement by age:

Age 21: Zimmerman 2.6
Age 22: Longoria 4.5, Zimmerman 4.4
Age 23: Longoria 6.7, Zimmerman 2.6
Age 24: Longoria 7.8, Zimmerman 7.1
Age 25: Longoria 7.2, Zimmerman 6.0
Age 26: Longoria 2.3, Zimmerman 1.6
Age 27: Zimmerman 3.8

Kind of eerie how the two parallel each other, right down to the significant injury issues in their age-26 seasons, although Longoria has been the slightly more valuable player. Zimmerman bounced back in 2012, although not at the same level as his 2009-10 peak. But Zimmerman's injuries have been with his back and shoulder, more debilitating concerns than a hamstring. That's no guarantee that Longoria's hamstring issues won't resurface, but you know the Rays have done their research and wouldn't sign the deal without expecting Longoria to be healthy.

Importantly for the future of the Rays, it means they'll have a middle-of-the-order bat for a decade. After losing Carl Crawford and now B.J. Upton, the Rays have finally locked up a star hitter. With national TV revenues more than doubling in 2014 to $50 million per team, the Rays will have a little more financial means down the road, even while stuck in Tropicana Field. Maybe that means the team will be able to afford ace pitcher David Price when he becomes a free agent after 2015.

If any GM can figure out a way to fit Longoria and Price into a limited budget, it will be Andrew Friedman. And that means the Rays have a good chance to remain competitive in the tough AL East.

Now, about Mr. Wright ...

Adam Dunn is at the plate, looking relaxed, just another of his more than 7,000 career plate appearances in the major leagues.

Dunn may appear relaxed, but Chicago White Sox fans certainly aren't, as they stand in unison, knowing the season has come down to this: one pitch. The cameras pan to the White Sox dugout and bullpen and Dunn's teammates have that look of dead men walking -- the depressing look of a team falling apart at the wrong time of the year, not knowing or understanding how this happened.

The count is three balls, two strikes, Fernando Rodney on the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays, his hat askew and beard groomed in a long goatee hanging in a point off his chin. It seems more goofy than intimidating -- if that's what Rodney is going for -- but when you have an ERA of less than 1.00 and have allowed two earned runs since the All-Star break, nobody cares what you look like.

Dunn has one thing on his mind: home run. The Rays lead 3-2, there is a runner on base, the White Sox in danger of losing for the eighth time in nine games. On the previous pitch, Dunn somehow laid off a changeup that dipped just below the knees. The pitch before he was late on a 98-mph fastball.

Fastball or changeup?

Good luck.

Rodney throws the changeup, it drops at the last moment, and Dunn swings over the top of it, and the air is let out of 18,000-plus at The Cell. The White Sox, 3-2 losers, are now two games behind the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central and their season feels over. The Rays have now won eight in a row and are two games behind the Oakland A's in the wild-card race. They've done this miracle surge thing before.

* * * *

Evan Longoria belted the winning home run off Brett Myers in the ninth inning, a sloppy curveball that a player of Longoria's caliber doesn't miss. But let's write about Rodney, because of his superlative season and because we really haven't talked much about him this year.

There was a tweet I saw as Rodney came in to close it out, from a guy named Dave Hogg (@stareagle): "Guess what, Tigers fans? You are about to relive the past -- it's going to be Fernando Rodney closing out a huge game for Detroit."

That's kind of a joke. Rodney used to pitch for the Tigers but wasn't that great for them. He was the closer one year for them, saved 37 games, but with a 4.40 ERA. The Tigers let him walk and he signed with the Los Angeles Angels, where his ERA was 4.32 the past two seasons. He had more walks than strikeouts for them last season. Of course they let him walk. Why wouldn't they?

And now he's put together one of the great relief seasons in history. How do you explain this?

You can't. The Rays have said it's all about improved fastball command from previous years, helping set up that lethal changeup. It's not just the drop in the pitch, but the separation from his fastball; his heater averages 96.1 mph, his changeup 82.4 mph.

"I'm surprised, to tell you the truth, whenever anybody puts the bat on one of them," Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey told Marc Tompkin of the Tampa Bay Times back in July. "Because this is not just a changeup."

Here's one heat map example of his improved fastball command against left-handed batters, 2011 versus 2012:



Before this season, Rodney had averaged 4.9 walks per nine innings in his career (and a staggering 7.9 with the Angels in 2011). In 2012, that number is less than 2 per nine.

That command sets up the change. In 64 plate appearances ending with a changeup, batters are hitting .102 against -- 6-for-59, one double, no home runs, 25 strikeouts. And because of that, Rodney's ERA is now 0.62. Talk about staggering. The lowest ever for a pitcher with at least 50 innings: Dennis Eckersely, 0.61 in 1990. With more scoreless inning, Rodney will match exactly Eck's totals: 73.1 innings, nine runs, five earned runs. (To be fair: Craig Kimbrel of the Braves has actually allowed fewer runs per nine innings this year.)

Not bad for a guy the Rays signed for $1.75 million and $2.5 team option (after the Angels had thrown away $11 million on him over two season). Rodney got a chance to close only when Kyle Farnsworth was injured in spring training.

"We thought he was ripe for a good year," Rays manager Joe Maddon had said back in July. "I think it's a combination of him feeling good about himself and liking it here, and maybe some nice physical and mental adjustments, and all of a sudden, you've got an All-Star."

Score one for the Rays. As our pal Jonah Keri said, in reference to Rodney's infamous post-save celebrations: He is an arrow-firing cyborg.

That cyborg is a reason the Rays are still alive. Very much alive.