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The Washington Nationals aren’t the only team struggling to put its best nine out there on any given day. The Tampa Bay Rays have suffered another injury, losing Desmond Jennings for at least the next two weeks after placing him retroactively on the disabled list. The move dates to Saturday because Jennings was used as a pinch-hitter Friday night against the Orioles. The knee injury that pushed him to the DL had already kept him out of the starting lineup for a week.

So that's an unhappy contretemps because there’s a chance Jennings could be back sooner than the full two weeks he’ll now be gone. Not that there isn’t anything wrong with some caution, of course -- now that B.J. Upton is back in action, the Rays' outfield and DH situations might seem set: Upton in center, Ben Zobrist in right, and that tasty Matt Joyce -- Brandon Guyer platoon in left field.

But that’s the thing: It’s an asymmetric substitution. The Rays aren’t replacing Jennings’ production with an outfielder, they’re replacing it with the always flexible Zobrist. That means borrowing a bat from their infield, and giving playing time to Joe Maddon’s squad of supersubs. Now a combination of Elliot Johnson, Will Rhymes, Jeff Keppinger and Sean Rodriguez have to cover second, third and shortstop because Evan Longoria is also out.

This isn’t something the Rays can roll with all that easily, especially when we’re talking about Rodriguez (.606 OPS) or Keppinger (.663) facing right-handers, or Rhymes facing anybody. Maddon will mix and match the best he can, but the limitations of what he has to work with will become more and more apparent as the talent gets exposed or over-exposed. Johnson might be the one guy in this group with the up-side to be an adequate bat in the middle infield (PECOTA projects a one in five shot at a .720 OPS or better). That’s still lower than what they were getting from Jennings -- or could reasonably expect as he was projected to deliver .730 or so as a baseline, and sitting at .731.

Eric Karabell and myself hosted Wednesday's Baseball Today podcast while ESPN.com senior writer Jerry Crasnick made a guest appearance.

1. Jerry has a story up on Orioles pitching prospect Dylan Bundy -- who has allowed one hit in 17 innings so far -- so we talked with Jerry about Bundy and compare him to the other pitchers selected at the top of the 2011 draft: Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen and Trevor Bauer.

2. Bryce Harper made his home debut and Jerry weighs in with his early impressions.

3. The Dodgers' new ownership group officially takes over today so we speculate about what's in store for L.A.

4. We go through many emails, including whether ERA is a significant stat for pitchers.

5. We have an amazing Derek Lowe statistic for you.

Plus we preview Wednesday's action -- did you know seven pitchers who have thrown no-hitters start today? -- and even predict Albert Pujols' final stats. All on Wednesday's edition of Baseball Today!

For Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast I was joined by special guest ESPN.com senior writer Jim Caple. Somehow we managed to avoid talking about the Seattle Mariners for the whole podcast. But we did discuss Jim's ballpark rankings.

1. We spent most of the show discussing Jim's list of 30 ballparks, but we also discussed Evan Longoria's injury.

2. Ryan Braun had a big night. Does this mean he doesn't need Prince Fielder hitting behind him?

3. Yu Darvish was marvelous yet again. Do we see him as a Cy Young contender or will he wilt in the Texas heat?

4. From No. 30 (Tropicana Field, no surprise) to No. 1 (PNC Park), we talk ballparks with a guy who has been to more than Jamie Moyer.

5. Finally, Bryce Harper make his home debut tonight and Jim remembers covering a 19-year-old Ken Griffey Jr.

Check it out on Tuesday's show!

It was another eventful chat session as we discussed Albert Pujols' homerless April and asked readers to project his final numbers. We discussed many things about the Minnesota Twins, gave a shout-out to the awesome Jose Altuve, tried to figure out what the Angels should do with Mark Trumbo, wondered who the first manager to be fired will be (yes, once we again Dusty Baker's name came up!), wondered how much bad defense has to do with the poor starts by Max Scherzer and Josh Johnson, wondered how much good defense is helping Jeremy Hellickson, debated the Nationals' attendance issues and pointed out that Pujols' slow start is stealing attention away from Jose Bautista's slow start. All that and more! Check out the transcript here.

Evan Longoria will reportedly miss six to eight weeks after injuring his hamstring in Monday's win over the Mariners.

No team can afford to lose its best hitter for long, but the Rays always seem to find a way. Longoria missed a month last season and the Rays went 15-11 in his absence.

My first thought was this will make the Rays vulnerable to left-handed pitching since their lineup leans to the left side with Carlos Pena, Matt Joyce and Luke Scott. But the Rays have actually hit left-handed pitching better than right-handers this year -- .292/.365/.483 versus .236/.327/.404.

The Rays haven't announced a roster move, but they have several options here. Jeff Keppinger could play third on a regular basis. Backup infielder Elliot Johnson could play there, or Johnson could play short with Sean Rodriguez moving over to third. Or Reid Brignac could be recalled from Triple-A to play some shortstop, with Rodriguez, Brignac, Johnson and Keppinger playing in a sort of four-man platoon of sorts. With Joe Maddon managing, expect the Rays to survive by moving players around on a daily basis.

As far as the impact on the field, consider Longoria about six wins better than a replacement-level player over the course of a season. Guys like Johnson and Brignac are classic replacement-level contributors, so if Longoria misses eight weeks, we're talking about 45 to 50 games, or nearly one-third of the season. While the impact of losing a player like Longoria seems significant, we're probably talking about two wins, assuming his fill-ins aren't completely terrible.

Two wins isn't a lot. On the other hand, in what promises to be a tight AL East race, two wins may be the difference between winning the division, winning the wild card, or missing the playoffs altogether. (UPDATE: Rays GM Andrew Friedman is saying the injury might not be as bad first feared. Stay tuned.)

Facing baseball’s top team in their ballpark Friday night, the Tampa Bay Rays brought home run power at the plate and strikeouts on the mound to put away the Texas Rangers, 8-4. This marked the sixth consecutive win for the Rays, who have seemingly righted themselves after sputtering to a 4-5 record to start the season.

The Rays have managed to go 9-2 since then, mainly due to a potent offense that is fourth in the American League in runs scored. Evan Longoria has hit like an MVP candidate, currently sporting a .319/.437/.569 line with four home runs, including a three-run shot Friday. Desmond Jennings owns a nine-game hitting streak, during which he's hit .324, and B.J. Upton has come off the disabled list with a vengeance with a .788 OPS.

Newly acquired bats Carlos Pena and Luke Scott have made Rays fans forget the short, though productive, stints in Tampa Bay of Johnny Damon and Casey Kotchman. Pena and Scott have already combined for nine home runs, more than one-third of the amount that Damon and Kotchman produced all of last year. For reference, the Rays have played 12.3 percent of their games so far, so it looks like these one-year deals on the heels of letting Damon and Kotchman walk could provide excess value.

Interestingly, the Rays are not utilizing the stolen base as the catalyst to their offensive production. Last season the Rays finished second in the majors in stolen bases, marking the first time since 2007 that they did not lead the league in the category. Entering last night, the Rays ranked 16th with 12 total steals. The Rays do have stolen-base threats in Jennings and Upton, but the Rays have been generating offense in a different manner than they are accustomed to -- with power.

The Rays have hit 27 home runs this year, tied for fourth in the majors. Longoria, Pena, Scott, and Matt Joyce have hit at least four long balls apiece. Behind them, Jennings and Ben Zobrist have three each. Those hitters comprise the Rays' 1-5 hitters against right-handed pitchers, as Joyce sits against southpaws. The impressive patience and power displayed by the Rays has been evident over their current win streak in that they have hit at least one home run in each of the past five games.

In addition to their offense, which was on display against Rangers lefty Matt Harrison on Friday night, the Rays have gotten a lift from their pitching over their past 10 games. Allowing just 2.9 runs per game has been a huge part of their 8-2 record over that span. Their run prevention has not all been pitching, however, as their defensive shifts have also proven to be effective. Adam Berry of MLB.com has a great article on the Rays and their shifts, along with the index cards they pull out for each hitter. The Rays currently rank second in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved with 19, nine more than the third-place Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Rays pride themselves on taking as many small advantages as possible, which is a testament to the quality of their front office, scouting and management. Signing players like Scott to a $6 million, one-year deal and moving starter Wade Davis to a bullpen role rather than trading him, are just two decisions that appear to be solid. Davis currently has a 1.86 ERA along with eight strikeouts and two walks in 9.2 innings out of the bullpen and was able to get out of a bases-loaded jam unscathed in the eighth inning of Friday’s victory.

The Rays will have to pitch better overall, specifically in the bullpen, over the course of the season. With the type of talent they possess and their excellent defense, their over-4.00 ERA should continue to decrease. With their offense scoring plenty of runs, improved pitching may make them the best team in baseball. But for now, that designation belongs to the team that is in the opposite dugout this weekend: the Rangers.

Ben Duronio writes about the Braves at Capitol Avenue Club. Follow him on Twitter.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

First base: Double trouble for D-backs. Justin Upton sat out Tuesday's game against the Pirates due to the thumb injury he suffered April 8. Manager Kirk Gibson said his star right fielder -- batting .212 without an RBI -- saw a hand specialist and would likely undergo an MRI. "The thumb's been bothering him," Gibson told the Arizona Republic. "He's pushed hard through it. We've taken a day to re-evaluate what's going on with his thumb." To make matters worse for Arizona, Chris Young crashed into the wall in left-center making a leaping grab and left the game with a shoulder bruise. He too will undergo an MRI. The D-backs received a lot of criticism for signing Jason Kubel in the offseason, but this is where having four outfielders is an asset, not a problem. If Young can't go, Gerardo Parra can handle center.

Second base: Gold Glovers struggling on defense. Two-time Gold Glove winner Troy Tulowitzki committed just six errors last season but he made his sixth already in 2012, letting an easy double-play go through his legs, an error that led to two unearned runs and nearly cost Jamie Moyer his "oldest pitcher to win a game" achievement. Meanwhile, two-time Gold Glover Evan Longoria booted two grounders and made a throwing error for a three-error night in Tampa's 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays (three of Jeff Niemann's five runs were unearned). While Longoria just had one of those nights, Tulo's situation appears more serious, a possible "fielding slump" that is worth keeping an eye on.

Third base: No A's for Angels. Mike Scioscia removed Dan Haren after just 85 pitches, with the Angels leading 2-1 with two runners on and two out in the seventh. Lefty Daric Barton was up for the A's so Scioscia brought in Scott Downs, who did retire Barton to escape the jam. Even though Downs' is the team's best setup guy -- a guy who has proven he can retire right-handed hitters as well as lefties -- Scioscia took him out after four pitches and brought in Kevin Jepsen, a guy considerably lower in the bullen pecking order. Two walks and two hits later it was 3-2 Oakland, and then Yoenis Cespedes made it 5-2 with a two-run single off David Carpenter. Why Jepsen? Or why remove Haren so soon if your bullpen has been taxed in recent days? LaTroy Hawkins had thrown 31 pitches on Monday so was probably unavailable. Downs had thrown 14 pitches, hardly reason to limit him to four pitches. Jason Isringhausen had thrown 21 pitches on Sunday -- but Carpenter had thrown 37. The obvious question: Why not use closer Jordan Walden ... you know, for more than three batters. He's thrown two innings all season -- one inning in a 7-1 win and one inning in a 7-3 loss. In other words, he hasn't thrown a meaningful inning all season. In the last week, the Angels' bullpen has lost two leads in the eighth inning and one in the seventh. But whatever you do, SAVE YOUR CLOSER FOR THE NINTH INNING.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.

Rockies pitcher tweeting members of the Los Angeles Clippers after Jamie Moyer's win:

Shout out 2 boys from @laclippers.U witnessed history 2nite! @blakegriffin @bobbysimmons21 @mowilliams @RandyFoye Will u b able 2 dunk @ 49?

— Jeremy Guthrie (@JGuthrie46) April 18, 2012

It takes a lot of ability and more than a little luck to win 24 games like Justin Verlander did in 2011, when he became only the third pitcher in 20 years to win that many games. You need the right combination of dominance, run support and bullpen help. He had all three a year ago, most notably from closer Jose Valverde, who didn't blow a save opportunity all season.

In his Opening Day start, Verlander left after eight shutout innings and a 2-0 lead, only to see Valverde cough it up. Wednesday afternoon in Detroit, Verlander was again unhittable. He took a one-hitter into the ninth against the Rays and had thrown only 81 pitches. Verlander had pitched at least eight innings 43 previous times in his career and only twice thrown fewer than 100 pitches. This was looking like one of the best -- and certainly most efficient outings -- of his career.

But this is baseball.

In a fascinating turn of events, the Rays turned a 2-0 deficit into a 4-2 victory. Since 2009, the Tigers had been 229-1 when leading after eight innings. It began with a Jeff Keppinger two-strike single to center. Reid Brignac struck out but Desmond Jennings lined a 2-2 fastball to right for another base hit. Verlander got ahead of Carlos Pena 1-2 but threw three balls, bouncing ball four for a wild pitch to score Keppinger. Facing Evan Longoria, Verlander reared back like only he can. He threw a ball, a 99-mph heater that Longoria fouled off and then a 100-mph fastball that Longoria bounced past a diving Miguel Cabrera for a game-tying single.

Maybe a more agile third baseman would have made the play, but it seemed more like seeing-eye single right in the hole. That was it for Verlander after 23 pitches in the inning. Jim Leyland brought in wild lefty Daniel Schlereth to face Matt Joyce, but Joe Maddon hit Elliot Johnson, who worked a walk. Schlereth is ill-suited for a crucial role until he proves he can quit walking right-handers, who posted a .409 OBP off him last season. Maybe Leyland didn't think Maddon would hit for Joyce with the light-hitting Johnson. Whatever the thought process, only then was Valverde brought in and Ben Zobrist grounded a 3-2 fastball up the middle for a two-run single.

After Verlander's 81 pitches through eight innings, the Tigers threw 52 pitches in the ninth. It was ugly or beautiful, depending on your team of choice.

As for Verlander, batters are hitting .107 off him through two starts. And he's 0-1.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

If my math is correct, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees still have 17 games against each other. The Rays and Boston Red Sox have 18 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees have 18 games against each other. And all three teams have 18 against the Toronto Blue Jays.

That's 107 more games of American League East mini-wars, in which every game will be treated as the one that may win -- or lose -- a division championship.

Friday's game at the Trop was as interesting as a regular-season game can be, with a hundred little moves worth discussing and dissecting. Rays manager Joe Maddon was already in midseason form, calling for a squeeze bunt, pinch-hitters and lefty/righty matchups out of the bullpen. Yankees counterpart Joe Girardi went to his trusty binder in the bottom of the first inning and got burned. And the greatest closer of all time failed to do his job. Yes, I'll take more, thank you very much.

A few quick highlights about a game you could write 3,000 words about:

• With two out in the first and runners on second and third, Girardi had CC Sabathia walk Sean Rodriguez to pitch to Carlos Pena. Girardi has a bit of unusual obsession with the intentional walk. Sabathia, for example, issued 17 IBBs over the previous three seasons. Compare that to guys like Justin Verlander (0), Cliff Lee (3), Roy Halladay (5) or Jon Lester (0). Anyway, while it's true Pena struggles against left-handers (.133 in 2011, .179 in 2010), it's also true that he's a very patient hitter willing to take a walk. Juicing the bases forces Sabathia to throw a strike. Pena worked the count to 3-2 and drilled a fastball for a grand slam. An intentional walk on Opening Day with two out in the first inning? Just ... well, wow.
• Down 6-5, the Rays had a great chance to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth when they put runners on the corners with no outs against David Robertson. Maddon sent Stephen Vogt in to hit for Elliot Johnson, Vogt's first major league at-bat. Robertson struck him out on four pitches -- two 92 mph cutters and a fastball up sandwiched around a curveball in the dirt. With Jose Molina up and a 1-1 count, Maddon sent the runners ... except Molina missed the squeeze sign and instead fouled off the pitch. Maddon, with the proverbial guts of a cat burglar, went right back to the squeeze, but Molina fouled it off for strike three. Robertson than fanned Matt Joyce to escape the jam.
• Mariano Rivera entered to close out it out. Desmond Jennings singled to right-center and Ben Zobrist tripled to deeper right-center. Girardi -- remember, he loves the intentional walk -- gave free passes to Evan Longoria and Luke Scott to load the bases. Once again, Girardi left his pitcher with no margin for error. Rivera fell behind 3-1 to Rodriguez but came back to strike him out, bringing up Pena. He got the count to 1-2 and the strikeout-prone Pena looked like a dead duck. Instead, Rivera threw a meaty pitch over the middle of the plate and Pena lofted a deep fly off the base of the wall in left-center. Game over. His first hit ever off Rivera. "Oh, yeah. [I was] very aware of it," Pena said. "His ball moves so much that your eyes deceive you." But Pena's eyes mapped this Rivera cutter, giving him a three-hit, five-RBI day. And as Pena did a postgame on-field interview, B.J. Upton delivered a shaving cream pie in the face that tasted just right.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

I'm with Steve Berthiaume: Predictions are generally a big pain in the neck. Read Steve's column and understand: If I don't pick your team, it doesn't mean I hate them or root against them or like the Yankees better than the Red Sox or vice versa. Last season, I infamously projected the Phillies to win 90 games and miss the playoffs ... OK, I was only off by 12 wins. Hey, I could defend my analysis -- Vance Worley's surprise season, Chase Utley returned sooner than expected, the bullpen was great, Cole Hamels had his best year, the Hunter Pence trade -- but bottom line: I was wrong.

And that's good. As Steve writes, baseball wouldn't be so great if we were always right.

What I did was project each team's runs scored and runs allowed and project their win-loss record from there. Of course, the runs scored and allowed totals have to add up to same number. Not every team can exceed it's over/under line. Overall, I project 21,055 runs scored, a 247-run increase over 2010 (there were 21,308 runs in 2010). Note, of course, that in reality every team doesn't match its projected runs scored/allowed wins total. Last season, for example, the Tigers and Diamondbacks exceeded their Pythagoren record by six wins.

So here are my surely-to-be-wrong predictions ...

AL EAST

I know, I know ... I couple weeks ago I declared the Red Sox the team to beat in the AL East. Since then Andrew Bailey has landed on the DL after thumb surgery and Josh Beckett has some sort of thumb injury as well. It doesn't sound serious, but those are two red flags. No matter how you slice it, the division should be a terrific three-way race. The Yankees and Rays have more rotation depth but I like Boston's lineup. And don't discount the Blue Jays. If Colby Rasmus rebounds, Adam Lind has a better season and Brett Lawrie lives up to expectations, this lineup could score 800-plus. It just needs the back of the rotation to produce and the Jays could be a sleeper contenders if one of the favorites falters.

AL CENTRAL

I went on record earlier as picking the Indians to win the AL Central, so I now apologize to all Cleveland fans as I change my mind. I just couldn't make the math work and Ubaldo Jimenez's spring struggles and state of mind are a huge concern. Still, I do believe the Tigers are vulnerable; look, if Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello take a big step forward the Tigers will run away with the division, no matter how grounders slip past Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. For now, I still those two as inconsistent 3-4 starters and I suspect that regression from Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta may cancel out some of the offensive gains Fielder will provide. Some people like the Royals, but I don't see a .500-caliber rotation and I'm lukewarm about the offense once you get past Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Even with some bounce-back from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, the White Sox will struggle to score runs. Their rotation could be interesting, however. And the Twins ... well, they're just one season removed from 94 wins.

AL WEST

No surprise here: should be a great two-team race. The Rangers had a run differential 144 runs better than the Angels last year; that's a lot of ground to make up. Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and perhaps Kendrys Morales will produce a large chunk of that and the Rangers may regress a little, but the Angels will need to find improved offense somewhere else (and we mean you, Vernon Wells). The A's were actually closer to the Angels in run differential a season ago than the Angels were to the Rangers, but this is still a lineup with Coco Crisp hitting third to start the season. The Mariners will score more runs, but that isn't saying much. Safeco Field will help the pitching staff look better than it is, but Mariners will be watching Double-A Jackson with nearly as much interest as the big league club.

NL EAST

So I was talking to a Phillies fan here in the office and told him I was picking them despite the Ryan Howard and Chase Utley injuries. His response: "We don't want you." Nice! I sense some pessimism in Phillies land, and while understandable to a small degree, YOU STILL HAVE ROY HALLADAY, CLIFF LEE AND COLE HAMELS. Anyway, any of the top four teams can win this division. The Marlins may actually have the highest upside if everyone stays healthy, Ricky Nolasco's ERA matches his FIP and Carlos Zambrano actually pitches well. But with several injury-prone players, I'm a little more cautious. Same with the Braves; the good news is Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman should improve on 2011, but there are injury concerns in the rotation, shortstop is a question mark, third base could be a problem and the bullpen may again have to carry a big workload.

NL CENTRAL

Here's what worries me about the Cardinals: Lance Berkman, David Freese, Rafael Furcal, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday have all battled various injuries in the past season or two. Adam Wainwright is back, but Chris Carpenter is out for an unknown period of time. Can they win the division? Of course. I actually think the team most likely to run away with the division is the Reds, if everything breaks right, especially in the rotation. But my safe pick is the Brewers. Or maybe they're not so safe; not many have jumped on the Brewers' bandwagon this year but I love the Zack Greinke-Yovani Gallardo duo. It's hard to project much for the Cubs, Pirates and Astros, although maybe the Pirates could challenge .500 if Erik Bedard and A.J. Burnett stay healthy and pitch well.

NL WEST

Even with regression from Ryan Vogelsong and uncertainty in the fifth spot, the big three of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner and a lineup that has to score more runs than 2011 makes the Giants slight favorites over the Diamondbacks. Plus ... I couldn't pick EVERY division winner to repeat. In fact, recent history tells us half of each season's playoff teams won't make it the next year. So maybe that opens the door for the Dodgers, Rockies or Padres in a surprise finish in the always unpredictable NL West.

PLAYER AWARDS

AL MVP: Evan Longoria

Since the wild-card era began in 1995, 29 of 34 MVPs played on playoff teams and 31 of 33 position players to win hit .300 (the exceptions being Jimmy Rollins in 2007 and Alex Rodriguez in 2003). Longoria has not .300, but he did hit .294 in 2010 so he has a .300 season in him. Could end up being a "Defense matters!" debate between him and Miguel Cabrera.

Sleeper: Shin-Soo Choo. If the Indians shock the world.

AL CY YOUNG: David Price

He finished second in the 2010 voting and I believe he's a better pitcher now -- higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate in 2011. Run support may be an issue.

Sleeper: C.J. Wilson. Had a 2.31 road ERA in 2011.

AL ROOKIE: Yu Darvish

I believe.

Sleeper: Addison Reed. Could end up as the White Sox closer and rookie closers have historically done well in the voting (Craig Kimbrel, Neftali Feliz, Andrew Bailey and Huston Street have won in recent years).

NL MVP: Ryan Braun

Joey Votto was my initial pick, but since I have the Brewers winning the division ahead of the Reds, I'll go with Braun.

Sleeper: Giancarlo Stanton. OK, not much a sleeper, but could have a monster RBI season hitting behind Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

NL CY YOUNG: Roy Halladay

No insulted intended to Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee or any of the other great NL starters.

Sleeper: Zack Greinke. Well, hard to call a guy who's won before a sleeper. Looks for his ERA to come close to his second-half from 2011 -- 2.59.

NL ROOKIE: Zack Cozart

The NL rookie crop isn't quite as exciting as the AL's, but the Reds have two strong candidates in Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco. But while Mesoraco will share time with Ryan Hanigan, Cozart should play every day at shortstop and put up decent numbers.

Sleeper: Trevor Bauer. If Josh Collmenter falters, Bauer may be up quickly for Arizona.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

The SweetSpot network bloggers have weighed in and Miguel Cabrera is their preseason prediction for AL MVP. While Cabrera collected 17 of 38 first-place votes and Albert Pujols just four, the final points total was close as Pujols picked up more second- and third-place votes. Cabrera has finished in the top five of MVP voting five times in his career with his highest result a second-place finish in 2010. Evan Longoria collected the second-most first-place votes to place third in the voting. The blog network apparently doesn't foresee repeat performances from Justin Verlander and Jacoby Ellsbury, last season's top two finishers in the MVP vote, as neither finished in the top 10.

Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.

A good time was had by all on Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, certainly more fun than what Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera experienced Monday. Keith Law and I talked Cabrera and much more.

1. Should the Tigers have expected Cabrera to get injured playing third base? Our opinions differ slightly, but certainly Detroit dodged a bullet.

2. However, the Royals are likely to lose closer Joakim Soria for a while. The Royals have pitchers that seem capable of closing games, but which one?

3. In yet another long-term contract that seems to benefit both team and player, Derek Holland and the Rangers committed to one another. Is Holland on the verge of stardom?

4. We take your emails, as among the topics are top players to start a franchise with, White Sox catchers, Braves shortstops and more!

5. Is Triple-A baseball what is used to be, or do more prospects skip that level on the way to the big leagues? KLaw offers thoughts.

So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, and send emails to baseballtoday@espnradio.com for Wednesday’s show!

In 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays won 91 games, with that 91st win serving as one of the more memorable in baseball history.

They scored 707 runs and allowed 614, which projects to ... 91 wins. So they hit that win-loss record on the head. What can we project for 2012? Let's do a position-by-position analysis.

Catcher: Jose Molina
John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach and assorted backups hit .194/.274/.333 in 2011, so of course the Rays brought in Jose Molina -- for his defense. Molina turns 37 in June and has never batted 300 times in a season, so how much he actually ends up playing remains to be seen. Robinson Chirinos, Jose Labatan and Stephen Vogt are battling for the backup. Offensively, this crew may not be much of an improvement; I'll say an additional seven runs over the 45 runs created a year ago. More on Molina's defense later.

First base: Carlos Pena
Casey Kotchman didn't score or drive in many runs but did get on base (.378) so at least he wasn't a rally killer. Rays first basemen created about 83 runs. Carlos Pena takes over and even hitting .225 with the Cubs he created about 86 runs. Projection systems are calling for a slight decline for Pena as he moves to Tampa. Give him 75 runs plus a few more from his backups and I'll call this one a wash.

Second base: Ben Zobrist
In his three seasons as a regular, Zobrist has been all over the place: a .948 OPS in 2009, .699 in 2010, .822 in 2011. He created about 100 runs in 2011. With weight given to that 2010 performance he's projected to decline a bit. Minus nine runs.

Third base: Evan Longoria
Longoria missed most of April with an oblique strain and then posted a career-low .850 OPS despite mashing 31 home runs in 483 at-bats. Rays third basemen created about 95 runs (85 by Longoria). With an expected spike in his BABIP (.239 in 2011), Longoria's numbers should improve across the board. Plus 15 runs.

Shortstop: Sean Rodriguez/Reid Brignac/Elliot Johnson
Another position where the Rays received little production: A collective .193/.256/.282, good for 35 runs created. Amazing that Tampa made the playoffs with two positions hitting under .200. The production can only improve, although how much depends on who gets the playing time. Brignac has the best glove so will get another chance. ZiPS projects a .239/.281/.338 batting line. Not great, but still better. Overall, let's say an improvement of 12 runs.

Left field; Desmond Jennings
This was supposed to be Johnny Damon's position a year ago but he ended up as the DH after Manny Ramirez flunked out. Sam Fuld got most of the playing time early on before yielding to Jennings. Overall, the Rays got 85 runs from left field. ZiPS is pessimistic about Jennings, projecting a .259/.339/.392 line, which is about 83 runs over 670 plate appearances. Other systems project slightly better numbers. Let's give the Rays five additional runs.

Center field: B.J. Upton
He could improve, I suppose, but logic dictates more of the same. No change.

Right field: Matt Joyce
It will be interesting to see if Joe Maddon gives Joyce a chance to play full-time against left-handers this year or if he'll run Zobrist out to right field against southpaws. Joyce cooled off after his All-Star first half. He should put up similar overall numbers. No change.

Designated hitter: Luke Scott
Damon and assorted friends produced about 87 runs. If Scott matches his 2010 numbers with the Orioles (.284/.368/.535) he'll be a big step up. But those were also his career-best numbers and he'll be 34 in June. I see only a slight improvement of three runs.

Let's compare the 2011 rotation to projected numbers for 2012, cribbed from various projection systems.



2011: 162 starts, 1058 innings, 438 runs
2012: 155 starts, 995 innings, 430 runs

We'll add in the seven missing starts at 42 innings and 20 runs allowed (4.3 per nine innings), bringing the 2012 totals to 1037 innings and 450 runs allowed. That's 20 runs more than 2011 in slightly fewer innings. Is that fair? The projection systems are understandably not completely bullish on James Shields. While he had a 2.82 ERA in 2011, he's also a pitcher with a 3.96 career ERA. His .258 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was eighth-lowest among starters; and while Tampa's defense was arguably the best in baseball, they've had a good defense in previous seasons and Shields' BABIPs didn't approach .258. I'm a little surprised the systems don't foresee a better year from Price. In 2010, he had a 2.72 ERA and 3.42 FIP (fielding independent ERA); in 2011, a 3.49 ERA and 3.32 FIP, albeit with a much better SO/BB ratio. Bill Baer wrote about Hellickson and the reason he's projected to not match the sterling 2.95 ERA he posted as a rookie. As for Moore, the projection systems are conservative by nature so they're not going to match the lofty expectation fans have. It certainly wouldn't be shocking to see Moore post a sub-3.00 ERA over 30 starts. It's also not fair to expect that.

One other issue: Jeff Niemann is actually projected to be better than Wade Davis. I would suggest that if Davis does allow 4.7 runs per nine innings -- not awful, mind you -- Niemann will get a shot at some point. In other words, I think the Davis slot will be slightly better, either because he pitches better or Niemann gets some starts. So I do think it's fair to knock a few runs off the overall total. For now, let's say the rotation allows 15 more runs than a year ago. But more on that in a minute.

The Tampa bullpen in 2011 only had to pitch 391 innings, fewest in the AL. It posted a 3.73 ERA ERA, sixth in the league, allowing 176 runs. I'm slightly skeptical the pen will be as good, but they do have a variety of options, including using Davis or Niemann in a prominent role. I'm going to say no change for the bullpen, other than adding an additional 21 innings and nine additional runs allowed.

So that brings the totals to:

Offense: +33 runs scored, for a new total of 740 runs scored
Pitching: +24 runs allowed, for a new total of 638 runs allowed

We mentioned Jose Molina's defense earlier. Overall, the 2011 Rays easily rated as baseball's best defensive squad, 25 runs better than the No. 2 team, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved. The major changes are Pena for Kotchman at first (both rated about league average) and Molina at catcher. Molina's added value comes in his ability to frame pitches, which studies indicate he's one of the best in the majors at -- maybe as much as 15 to 20 runs over an average catcher. We'll be conservative and subtract 10 runs off the defensive ledger. The rest of the defense should be similar.

So we now get:

Offense: 740 runs scored
Defense: 628 runs allowed

That creates an expected winning percentage of .575 -- or 93 wins.

OK, back to the pitching for a final word. Let's be slightly more optimistic. Let's take 10 runs off the totals for Shields, Price, Hellickson and Moore -- an additional 40 fewer runs allowed. It's certainly a reasonable proposition. This now gives the Rays 588 runs allowed and .604 winning percentage.

Which translates to 98 wins.

Of course, it's not quite that simple. This little analysis doesn't factor in everything -- the change in the quality of divisional opponents, for example. But one reason I like the Rays to beat their Vegas over/under line of 87.5 wins is that as a young team they're a pretty safe team to project. Injuries shouldn't be a major factor. They have depth in the rotation if somebody does go down. Yes, there is a little uncertainty in the bullpen and catcher and shortstop could still end up as offensive black holes, but this looks like a playoff team to me.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

One reason baseball fans are so excited about Brett Lawrie is that 2011 was a miserable season for third basemen around the majors.

Not one full-time third baseman posted a .900 OPS, the first year that's happened since 2002. Third basemen hit just .252 and slugged under .400. Their collective OPS was .707 -- less than the overall major league OPS of .720. Here's a chart showing how poorly third basemen hit in 2011 compared to other seasons:



As you can see, historically third basemen have performed well above the average major league hitter. As recently as 2008 -- led by Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez and David Wright -- third basemen were 30 points better than the major league OPS.

Of course, part of the problem for the decline in 2011 was injuries. Rodriguez, Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval, Kevin Youkilis and David Freese all missed significant time with injuries. Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre missed a month apiece. In this chart, you can see that only 11 third basemen received the qualifying standard of 502 plate appearances in 2011:



Things were so bad that Scott Rolen, who was hitting .241 with five home runs, made the National League All-Star team. Guys like Rolen, A-Rod and Jones are older and in decline, no longer the threats they were even a couple years ago. Glove-first third basemen like Chone Figgins, Brandon Inge and Placido Polanco were terrible at the plate.

There is some hope that third base might return to the days of the mid-'80s, when future Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt, George Brett and Wade Boggs all manned the hot corner. Lawrie looks like a future star, a guy who will combine with Jose Bautista to form a lethal 1-2 punch in Toronto. Longoria is still just 26, and in his "bad" year still hit 31 home runs. Sandoval is just 25, coming off a .315 season with 32 home runs in 117 games. Guys like Cleveland's Lonnie Chisenhall and Kansas City's Mike Moustakas could be ready to make an impact, and Keith Law had five third basemen ranked in the top 43 on his top 100 prospects list.

I think 2011 was just a little blip. Old stars are fading away. But Brett Lawrie is on his way.

In January, I wrote a piece on the five best players in baseball, looking at each five-year span since 1969-1973. The most recent five-year span ranked as Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Holliday. Considering Pujols is coming off the worst season of his career and just turned 32, and Utley and Mauer suffered through injuries, the title of "best player in baseball" seems more wide open than it has been in decades.

With that in mind, I asked Twitter followers to name their best player in baseball. Here are the results of the first 100 responses:

Troy Tulowitzki: 19 votes
Albert Pujols: 18 votes
Jose Bautista: 13 votes
Matt Kemp: 11.5 votes
Miguel Cabrera: 9 votes
Evan Longoria: 7 votes
Joey Votto: 7 votes
Justin Verlander: 6 votes
Roy Halladay: 4 votes
Robinson Cano: 3 votes
Ryan Braun: 1 vote
Jacoby Ellsbury: 1 vote
Justin Upton: 0.5 vote

The fact that 13 different players received votes and none received even 20 percent shows the lack of consensus on the topic. Rockies shortstop Tulowitzki edged out Pujols in the voting, although that may be have been influenced by the fact that I posted the question around 9 p.m. ET.

Anyway, here were some responses:

still Pujols, but closest it's been in a while. --@sahadevsharma

Verlander. Most dominant pitcher in pitcher heavy time. --@zcrizer

Best is Troy Tulowitzki. Key infield position at SS. Leader. Silver Slugger. Gold Glove. --@Stars5Steve

Tulo. Premier player at a premium position. --@cmiller0

Considering Albert is only a year removed from a 7.5 WAR and .420 wOBA, I'll side with him. Too close to call though. --@LWM_sucks

jose bautista easily --@TdotsFinest11

Miguel Cabrera without a doubt, so consistent you can't deny it, gives you the whole package. --@GadyBlitz

Ryan Braun. Even without the roids. --@oneandonlyburke