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First base: G-G-great. That whole Gio Gonzalez won't pitch as well once he leaves the spacious confines of Oakland idea? I'm starting to think he'll be just fine in the National League. The Nationals kicked off a big week -- road trips to Philly and Atlanta -- with a 2-1 win over the Phillies as Gonzalez tossed six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. His season numbers: 6-1, 1.98 ERA, .167 batting average, 69 strikeouts, 22 walks, one home run. Certainly, there are some areas that will bounce back to Earth -- the home run rate in particular will be next-to-impossible to maintain -- but his strikeout rate is up from 8.8 to 11.4 per nine innings while his walk rate has decreased a bit. As his 108 pitches in six innings on Monday showed, however, he still has room for refinement. Because of high pitch counts, he hasn't gone more than seven innings in a start. Unheralded Craig Stammen pitched two shutout innings in relief on Monday to help out Gonzalez's cause. If Gonzalez wants to move into that Clayton Kershaw-Cole Hamels-Cliff Lee class of left-handers and contend for a Cy Young Award, he needs to mix in some eight- or nine-inning outings.

Second base: Darvish's dud. Speaking of Cy Young contenders, Yu Darvish isn't there just yet. He was all over the place against the Mariners, walking six in four innings, throwing 96 pitches and earning an early exit as the intriguing pitching duel with Felix Hernandez turned into a one-sided contest. The Mariners were the first team to face Darvish a second time, so it will be interesting to see how batters adjust as they see him again. While he's 6-2 with a 3.05 ERA, the 32 walks in 56 innings is a big issue and the main reasons he's gone at least seven innings just three times in his nine starts.

Third base: Paulino power. Remember this name: Felipe Paulino. He began the season on the DL for the Royals with a sore elbow, but he's back and throwing heat, blanking the Yankees for 6.2 innings in K.C.'s 6-0 victory. His velocity is up there with any starter in baseball. His issue has always been control, which is how the Royals stole him a year ago from the Rockies (because the Rockies certainly don't need good arms). Through his first four starts, Paulino has a 29/7 SO/BB ratio and has now thrown 12.2 scoreless innings against the Yankees. After that dreadful 3-14 start, the Royals have gone 14-10. Don't count them out in the weak AL Central. As for the Yankees ... welcome to .500!

Home plate: Tweet of the Day. Giancarlo Stanton's second grand slam of 2012 was a monumental blast off Jamie Moyer that broke the scoreboard in left field at Marlins Park. Here's a pic of the scoreboard.

Stanton is to #Marlins what Hulk is to Avengers... I have expect him to hit a home run, break bat on his knee and floss his teeth w it.

— Troy Renck, Rockies (@TroyRenck) May 22, 2012

Eric Karabell and Mark Simon gathered for Monday's Baseball Today podcast. Here's what went down:

1. Justin Verlander's near no-no and Max Scherzer's 15-strikeout game topped the weekend's pitching performances. Who else had great games?

2. Aroldis Chapman named Reds closer, but does this move really make Cincinnati any better?

3. Lance Berkman is heading to the DL, so it's time to talk about Matt Adams.

4. Power rankings!

5. Ridiculous question of the week!

All that and more, including a look ahead to Monday's game. King Felix versus Yu Darvish!

SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I gathered for Monday’s Baseball Today podcast with our big top-10 lists of best teams and much more!

1. Seattle Mariners announcer Dave Sims talked about the Mariners, whether Ichiro will be in a Mariners uniform next season, Jesus Montero, cheering for the home team, the many young players on the horizon and ... hats.

2. Power Rankings day! Dave, Mark Simon and I each submitted our lists, with some similarities but alas, not all division leaders made it. And which NL team is best?

3. How do you pitch to Texas Rangers superstar Josh Hamilton? And how good are the Rangers? We discuss.

4. What has Detroit Tigers lefty Drew Smyly done that hadn’t been done ... ever?

5. We take a closer look at Monday’s schedule, from ESPN’s Cubs-Cardinals tilt to an important series for last season’s NL West champs!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast and come right back with us Tuesday for me and Keith Law!

A good time was had by all on Friday’s Baseball Today podcast , as Mark Simon and I discussed some surprising Thursday results, took your emails and looked ahead to an interesting weekend!

1. Curtis Granderson took the Twins deep three times in Thursday’s win, but would you believe he didn’t have the best performance of the night? We tell you who was better!

2. Yu Darvish stepped up his game against the Tigers, but what should we expect from the right-hander moving forward?

3. Simon and I pay special attention to defense, and tell you which hitters are seeing the most shifts against them, and which teams are paying attention.

4. Emailers want to know about the Cubs’ future, the Nationals’ rotation and who has scored the most runs in a game without getting a base hit?

5. It’s not only about the Red Sox and Yankees this weekend, but other series are important and we tell you which pitchers need to step up their game as well.

So download and listen to Friday’s Baseball Today podcast. We apologize for the post-production technical difficulties that hampered development of Thursday’s episode, but we’re on track today! Have a great weekend!

First base: King Felix hates his teammates. Or should, anyway. At least on this night. Felix Hernandez was brilliant against the Indians, striking out 12 batters in eight shutout innings, escaping a bases-loaded jam in the eighth by striking out Jason Kipnis and then Shin-Soo Choo with a Niagara Falls changeup. He left the mound pumping his fist with the most emotion I've ever seen from him. But his position mates scored just one run and Brandon League -- who had been lights-out -- coughed up the lead. Indians 2, Mariners 1. A key to the game: The patient Indians did force Hernandez to throw 126 pitches, even if they drew just one walk. Josh Tomlin made it through eight on just 96 pitches for Cleveland. (Dave Cameron has a good take here on Felix's changeup.)

Second base: Upton returns to Rays. B.J. Upton is expected to be activated from the DL and return to Tampa's starting lineup on Friday. The Rays could certainly use a right-handed bat in a lineup that has been featuring Jeff Keppinger in the cleanup spot against left-handers. Scoring runs hasn't actually been an issue for the 7-6 Rays: Only the Red Sox and Twins have allowed more runs in the AL.

Third base: Kid power. Remember when the Braves were 0-4 and everybody was already calling for manager Fredi Gonzalez's head? Since then they've won eight of nine, including a 10-2 thrashing of the Diamondbacks. Jason Heyward had two more hits to raise his average to .348 and Freddie Freeman slugged two home runs and drove in five runs. Meanwhile, Mike Minor pitched eight strong innings with nine strikeouts and no walks. Josh Collmenter allowed four runs in 5.1 innings, his third straight poor start, putting more pressure on the Diamondbacks to recall Trevor Bauer or one of their pitching prospects.

Home plate: Tweet of the day.
Speaking of King Felix, a factoid on his no-decision ...

This will be Felix's 16th no-decision in a start where he pitched at least 7, gave up no more than 1 run. Most in MLB since he debuted.

— Andrew Simon (@HitTheCutoff) April 20, 2012

In 2009 and 2010, Adam Wainwright was as good as just about any pitcher in baseball. He ranked third in adjusted ERA behind only Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay. Only five guys threw more innings and only CC Sabathia won more games. Wainwright finished third and then second in the National League Cy Young voting.

He hurt his elbow in spring training last year and missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. His start Saturday against Zack Greinke is one of the more intriguing matchups of baseball's first weekend. Given Chris Carpenter's health issues, a successful return by Wainwright is even more imperative for the Cardinals.

Wainwright's signature pitch was his knee-buckling 12-to-6 curveball that he threw nearly 29 percent of the time in 2010. The only starters who threw a higher percentage of curveballs than Wainwright that year were Wandy Rodriguez and Gio Gonzalez. Two things made Wainwright's curve tough to attack: (1) He set it up with good velocity and location on his fastball, throwing 91-92 mph; (2) great location on the curve. Check the heat maps below: Wainwright spotted his curve low and away to left-handed hitters ... and low and away to right-handed hitters.



So while everybody's eyes will likely be on the radar gun, it may be Wainwright's command of his curve that tells us how he'll do as he returns. No matter what happens Saturday, it's an anticipated game for the Cardinals and their fans. "It really is a big deal," Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak told MLB.com. "I'm probably going to have a few butterflies before that game even starts, just knowing how hard he's worked to get to where he is."

Meanwhile, Greinke gets the ball for the Brewers on the heels of Yovani Gallardo's four-homer Opening Day stink bomb. If you want a Cy Young candidate in the National League not named Halladay, Kershaw or Lee, Greinke may be your guy. Greinke finished 16-6 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 starts in 2011, and while that 3.83 ERA might not impress you, it comes with a big caveat: an extremely unlucky average on balls in play in the first half of the season.

Greinke's BABIP in the first half was .349, which led to a 5.45 ERA even though he had 99 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 74.1 innings. In the second half, his BABIP returned to a more normal level of .304 and he posted a 2.59 ERA.

Here's a heat map of Greinke's pitch locations in the first and second halves of 2011. While this doesn't tell the whole story of setting up hitters and so on, you can see the hot points are pretty similar. It does suggest that Greinke was merely unlucky in the first half, with a few too many bloopers, flares and infield hits.



What does it mean? If Greinke pitches like he did in 2011, when he led the NL in strikeouts per nine innings at 10.5, he's more likely to come closer to that 2.59 ERA than 3.83. Greinke also loved pitching at home last season -- he went 11-0 in 15 starts while averaging 11.3 K's per nine. The one aspect Greinke needs to improve on to become a legit Cy Young contender -- and remember, he won the American League award in 2009 with the Royals -- is to pitch deeper into games. He pitched more than seven innings only twice last season.

After Gallardo's disaster, there's nothing the Brewers would like more than eight innings from Greinke and the chance to hand the ball to John Axford with the lead.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

• Paul Lukas has his annual new uniform review. We all know about the Marlins' makeover, but there many others changes, patches and throwbacks to check out.
• How often do Opening Day lineups turn over? Diane Firstman, with help from Baseball-Reference.com, has a couple fascinating charts that show how rapidly teams do go through players.
• Here's the daily roundup from You Can't Predict Baseball. They do this every day, and it's full of interesting tidbits.
• Jerry Crasnick reports on a positive start to 2012 for Stephen Strasburg.
• It was a big win for the Tigers, even if Justin Verlander didn't get the win. And Miguel Cabrera actually caught a foul pop fly!
• Stephanie Lisco is already losing faith in the Indians after the 16-inning debacle.
• Bill Baer breaks down Roy Halladay's Opening Day gem. Halladay's Game Score of 83 was the best of his 10 career Opening Day starts.
• Kerry Wood might have been squeezed by the umpire, but it was still a tough loss for the Cubs.
• Tommy Hanson slightly altered his mechanics this spring, and Ben Duronio examines how Hanson's release point in Thursday's opener compared to 2011.
• The Dodgers won despite Clayton Kershaw leaving early with a case of the flu.
• Tim Lincecum starts tonight. Last year, he threw more sliders than ever, but ditched the pitch in spring training and has said he won't use it early in the season. Chris Quick with a look at what to expect from Lincecum and the Giants on Opening Day.
• So Michael Pineda wasn't throwing hard? Jon Shields writes about another pitcher with diminished velocity so far: Felix Hernandez. With much less hype, King Felix has been hovering at 90 mph with his fastball -- including during the season opener in Japan. Hernandez starts again on Saturday.
• Will Albert Pujols begin his season with a Royal conquest?
• What is the perfect Josh Hamilton contract? Prashanth Francis examines a question that will hover over the Rangers all season.
• Ryan Topp with five ways the Brewers can squeeze a few wins out of their roster.
• Which team can be this year's Arizona Diamondbacks? ESPN Insider Ben Lindbergh points to the Royals, Mariners and Pirates as the best possibilities.
• Dan Szymborski has his list of the five worst roster decisions, including the Nationals going with Ross Detwiler in the rotation.
• It was Opening Day in the minors as well. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has a roundup. (Bryce Harper went 2-for-4 in his Triple-A debut, with a double and stolen base.)

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

Today's staff prediction from the SweetSpot blog network: the AL Cy Young Award. Justin Verlander received 11 of 38 first-place votes as eight different pitchers received first-place nominations. Yes, there are a lot of ace-level starters right now. The last AL pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards was Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000.

Welcome to Opening Day! Not the official Opening Day, mind you, but the fake one from Japan, where the Mariners and A’s will be playing two games in a stadium the Japanese lovingly call the Big Egg. It’s fake Opening Day, but the games are real, although for some reason the MLB Network is showing a spring training report on the Mets (Jonathon Niese just showed Al Leiter his grip for a changeup!) rather than a game that actually matters.

But it’s available on MLB.TV so I set the alarm for 6 a.m., turned on the computer and sat down to follow along.

First inning
Brandon McCarthy starts for the A’s. McCarthy set a record for most offseason publicity ever for a pitcher who won nine games for a third-place team from a small-market West Coast team. He appeared on the cover of ESPN The Magazine. He wrote a guest column for SI.com. He tweeted clever strings of 140 characters all winter and appeared at a sabermetrics conference during spring training.
McCarthy is a great story, a pitcher who used sabermetric analysis to become a better pitcher as he returned from injuries. (“I didn’t want to suck at baseball anymore," he said.) And he is funny on Twitter. And he married a model. So you have to like the guy. He’s facing Felix Hernandez, so there’s a good chance this game could be 0-0 through nine innings.

Chone Figgins makes the first out of the 2012 season. Let’s just leave it at that. He’s too easy of a punching bag and it’s 6 o'clock in the morning. But an out later, Ichiro reaches on an infield single. His infield hits dropped from 59 in to 2010 to 38 in 2011, so this is a good sign. Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure he’s the only No. 3 hitter in the majors for whom we’ll be breaking down the number of infield hits. The Seattle Mariners, everyone!

Second inning
Jesus Montero steps to the plate wearing No. 63. I’m not sure this is a good sign. Has there ever been a great player to wear No. 63? Of course not! Apparently Montero wanted No. 21 but that belongs to Franklin Gutierrez. I suggest the Mariners trade Gutierrez. Montero bounces the first pitch to third base. If there’s something that will prevent Montero from reaching his potential as a hitter, it will be his over-aggressiveness at the plate. He drew just 36 walks in 463 plate appearances in Triple-A in 2011.

Mariners announcer Mike Blowers on catcher Miguel Olivo: “They’re going to give him a few more days off this year.”

Every Mariners fan everywhere: “God, we hope so.”

In the bottom of the inning, Yoenis Cespedes steps in for his first major league at-bat: Fastball inside, curveball for a called strike, a big 12-to-6 curve that he pulls off and a 58-foot sinker in the dirt that he misses by about 2 feet. Welcome to the big leagues.

Third inning
Michael Saunders singles to lead off the inning and steals second. Brendan Ryan grounds a curveball into the hole at shortstop, but Saunders unwisely dashes for third and is thrown out. Ryan is then caught stealing. Thank goodness the Mariners just spent five weeks in spring training working on fundamentals.

The A’s have a third baseman who wears glasses. What, are they so poor their players can’t even afford Lasik surgery?

Fourth inning
Dustin Ackley crushes a 1-1 fastball over the center-field fence. Our first run of the season! Ichiro follows with another infield single. He may hit .400 this year. The Mariners broadcast just mentioned Ichiro’s batting average on balls in play in 2010 compared to 2011 (.353 versus .295). I’m telling you, this sabermetric stuff just may catch on.

Oakland counters in the bottom of the inning as Cliff Pennington doubles to lead off and then Kurt Suzuki doubles with two outs, a liner just past the diving Mike Carp in left field. Minus-one on the defensive runs saved chart for Carp.

Fifth inning
Jemile Weeks strikes out looking, unhappy with both the two-strike pitch and third-strike calls and slams his bat down on the turf. The Japanese fans yelp in shock, as in Japan players wouldn’t dishonor the umpire with such a display.

Sixth inning
Figgins and Ichiro single but the rally dies when Justin Smoak and Montero fail to come through. Is this the right time to mention that the Mariners lost two exhibition games to Japanese teams by a combined score of 14-4 while getting outhit 25-13? Outside of Ackley’s homer, they haven’t hit the ball hard. Their other five hits include two infield hits and two ground balls up the middle.

Pennington singles to start the bottom of the frame and steals second, Oakland’s second steal of the game. A little thing to watch for Hernandez: He used to do an OK job of containing the running game, allowing an average of 16 steals per year from 2006 through 2010. In 2011, that shot up to 31 steals allowed, and it’s not all because of Olivo. Frankly, I think he stopped paying attention and I think most Mariners fans will agree that Felix’s concentration lagged at times last year. It’s not easy to pitch when you know giving up one run may lose you the game. Pennington moves to third on a long fly out but Hernandez works out of the jam with an infield popout (as Ryan makes the catch, the graphic shows that he led all major league shortstops with 17 runs saved) and Josh Reddick’s hard liner that goes right to Carp.

Seventh inning
McCarthy cruises through another easy inning. Cespedes pokes a 1-1 curveball over Saunders’ head in center field for a double, a good piece of hitting off a good low-and-away pitch from Hernandez. Considering how bad Cespedes looked earlier against off-speed stuff, a nice adjustment.

Bob Melvin then asks Brandon Allen to bunt. Allen’s last sacrifice bunt came in ... 2006. He pops it up. Bob Melvin, everyone! (Why not send up a pinch-hitter to bunt there?) Eric Sogard, the third baseman with the glasses, lines out to Hernandez and Weeks grounds out. Hernandez escapes another jam.

Eighth inning
McCarthy comes out after just 82 pitches. He threw a nice game -- no walks, three strikeouts, really just the one belt-high fastball mistake that Ackley didn’t miss. Ryan Cook comes in, a guy acquired in the Trevor Cahill trade with Arizona, a rookie with a big fastball. 1-2-3. Eight Mariners in a row retired. Hernandez also retires the side in order in what is probably his last inning after 104 pitches.

Ninth inning
The Mariners have their 3-4-5 guys up. A’s closer Grant Balfour comes on. Advantage: Oakland. Sorry, I hate to be cynical after just eight innings of the first game of the season, but it’s been two years of games like this for Mariners fans. Hernandez has 27 wins over the past two seasons. In 17 of those wins, he allowed no runs or one run, so he has just 10 wins in games in which he allowed more than one run. Compare that to, say, Justin Verlander; he has 19 wins over the past two seasons in games in which he allowed two runs or more. Both pitchers had 23 starts in which they allowed zero runs or one -- Verlander won all 23.

The Mariners go down in order. Tom Wilhelmsen enters for the Mariners. So there’s a chance they could lose without their best reliever entering the game. Because, you know, you have to save your closer for when you have a lead, even if it means he doesn’t get into a tie game in the ninth inning. What, too early in the season to be complaining about bullpen usage? Wilhelmsen does the job, striking out Cespedes on a big breaker for the third out. Looks like the scouting reports are already out on him: He’s going to see a steady diet of off-speed stuff, that’s for sure.

10th inning
Bonus baseball! Side-arming lefty Brian Fuentes on for the A’s. He once pitched 55 innings and recorded 48 saves! Three up, three down. Fourteen in a row for A’s pitchers. Mariners tally of hard-hit balls for the game: one. Seattle Times columnist Larry Stone on Twitter: Mariners in midseason form.

Ackley bobbles a hard-hit one-hopper and throws it way. Collin Cowgill runs for Allen. With Sogard up, let’s see if the A’s bunt, hit-and-run or swing away. Sogard takes ball one, fouls off a pitch with Cowgill running. Hit-and-run backfires when Sogard swing through a 2-1 outside fastball. If you don’t run, that pitch is outside and the count is 3-1. Sogard flies out. Weeks strikes out looking again ... and gently places his bat and helmet down on the turf. Only 17 more Mariners-A’s games to go!

11th inning
After new Oakland pitcher Andrew Carignan fires three fastballs to Ryan, Blowers makes an astute comment: “Carignan looks like he’s pretty proud of his fastball.” He throws and Ryan pounces on it for a leadoff double. Figgins bunts him over. Ackley lines a single -- off another fastball -- into center for the go-ahead run. Melvin brings in lefty Jerry Blevins. Not sure why he didn’t bring in Blevins to face Ackley. Maybe he figured Carignan had the better shot at a strikeout. Ackley steals second and Ichiro follows with a soft liner to center to score Ackley, his fourth hit of the game. I’m telling you ... Ichiro is back! (Wait, it’s only one game? I don’t care. We have to get excited about something. The Mariners just had a two-run outburst.)

Brandon League is on for the save. I told you Eric Wedge should have waited to bring in League until the Mariners got the lead. Pennington flies out. Coco Crisp strikes out looking on a 3-2 fastball. Seth Smith nearly kills League with a line drive that somehow goes between League’s glove and face. A’s still alive. The other Suzuki digs in. League puts him away with a nasty two-strike splitter.

And the first game of 2,430 is in the books. In the end, the big key was the Mariners using just two relievers while the A’s lost once Melvin went to his fourth and fifth guys out of the bullpen. Give Wedge credit for using Wilhelmsen for 25 pitches and two innings while Melvin removed Balfour after 11 pitches and Fuentes after 12. Why managers remove relievers after just one inning when their pitch count is still so low is something I still don’t understand. It’s rote managing without thinking critically about the situation.

Mariners fans are happy. The fans in Japan are happy, as their national hero gets four hits in his homecoming. And we should all be happy: Baseball is back.

Opening Day is a mere hours away! Are you ready? Keith Law and I discussed the Mariners-Athletics starting the season in Japan and a lot more on Tuesday’s fine Baseball Today podcast!

1. Felix Hernandez versus Brandon McCarthy! Well, I’ll be watching. Is opening the season in Japan good for baseball? Keith discusses.

2. Our special guest on the show was "Top Chef's" Richard Blaise, talking not only about food but also choking and pressure. It’s interesting stuff.

3. In our news segment we talked about Joba Chamberlain and Jose Iglesias, but also Mets hurler R.A. Dickey, who will be making news this week off the field. Kudos to R.A. for his honesty.

4. In our email segment we talk about potentially surprising teams like the Royals, which season was actually Mariano Rivera’s best and Shelby Miller’s ETA to the big leagues.

5. Keith talks about players to watch in 2012 and why Stephen Strasburg did not make his list! Find out why!

So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast because it’s the last one before the games start to count!

Michael Baumann of Crashburn Alley has a fun post on a theoretical question: If your life depended on winning the next 10 World Series, who do you pick for your 25-man roster? Money is no object. Injuries are a factor. Your team can't be too old, or it won't win down the road. It can't be too young or it won't win now. So who do you take? I like Michael's list, although I disagree with him on a couple of choices. Gerritt Cole over David Price or Justin Verlander (who isn't that old)? And he selected three relievers; I'd punt the relievers all together and draft 10 or 11 starting pitchers.

Other stuff:

• Chip Buck asks: Where should Jacoby Ellsbury hit in the Red Sox lineup?
• Jon Shields on Felix Hernandez, who has lost weight (check the photo in Jon's post), talked about staying in Seattle, and said his slider "went on vacation" last year.
• Game 162 of 2011 is history, but Chris Glover looks through the lens of that game for the Tampa Bay Rays and what it means for 2012.
• Craig Brown has a response to Royals manager Ned Yost saying Yuniesky Betancourt will start three or four times per week. Royals fans suddenly aren't enjoying spring training quite as much.
• The Pirates have locked up Andrew McCutchen long-term. Should the Braves do the same thing with Jason Heyward?
• Susan Petrone looks at the spring training histories of Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson, who both got beat up in their first spring outings.
• Will this be a breakout season for Yovani Gallardo?
• Brandon Belt says he wants to be more aggressive. Chris Quick takes a closer look.
• Will Chris Davis ever become a quality major leaguer? There's no denying the power, but the strikeouts and defense have prevented him from holding a full-time job. He turns 26 in March, so this may be his last chance to earn a starting job. Jon Shepherd has an interesting comparison for Davis: Eric Karros, a guy who struggled at the start of his career but ended up with some quality seasons.
• View from the Bleachers is doing season player previews. Here Chet West's take on Carlos Marmol, the Jekyll and Hyde of closers.
• Considering Scott Rolen's injury history, the Reds may have to rely on Juan Francisco to play third base at some point this season. But is he in Dusty Baker's doghouse?
• Hudson Belinsky has a look at how Chris Iannetta has hit away from Coors Field and how he changes his approach.
• Finally, make sure you vote in the Value Over Replacement Grit's March Moniker Madness tournament to determine the best name in baseball history.

As camps open in Arizona and Florida, we put it to the SweetSpot network: Which player from your team are you most excited to watch this season, and why? First up, the answers from the American League.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters


Why Wieters? He's likely the team's best player, and he's the only one I want to watch whenever he's on the field. At the plate it will be interesting to see if he can build on his 22-homer campaign from 2011 while improving in other areas (a higher average and especially OBP would be nice) to potentially take a place as one of baseball's best hitting catchers. Behind the dish, every stolen-base attempt is exciting (he led the AL in nabbing opposing would-be thieves last year). Can he go from being a very good player to a star? If he does, that could be the most exciting part of Baltimore's season. -- Daniel Moroz, Camden Depot

Boston Red Sox: Daniel Bard


Bard is an object of intrigue this season. He was originally drafted as a starter but after an implosion at the low levels of the minors he was shifted to relief and blossomed as one of the best young arms in the game, becoming the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth. Instead, Boston has elected to try the starting gambit again, where Bard could become the 2012 version of Alexi Ogando. He needs to develop his changeup further and there are questions on how his control and endurance will hold up on a transition, but he has front-line potential if all goes well. If not, it's back to the purgatory of middle relief, which may force a trade. His ceiling and the risk of the conversion will make him one of the more intriguing players on the Red Sox to watch. -- Evan Brunell, Fire Brand of the AL

Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale


The one guy who’s really going to be fun to watch this spring is the rail-thin Sale. The lefty’s power slider/fastball mix has him well-equipped to make the jump to the rotation in his age-23 season, and he might be the latest success story to add to pitching coach Don Cooper’s track record for success. The questions revolve around his ability to sustain the workload, but Cooper has already noted Sale will have an innings cap. What shot the Sox have got will rely on their rotation; if Sale breaks through, Kenny Williams’ winter inactivity may not look so bad. -- Christina Kahrl

Cleveland Indians: Ubaldo Jimenez


As a child, part of the excitement of Christmas morning was the mystery of what magical toys Santa left under the tree during the night. Was it what you'd been asking for all year or was there some kind of surprise in store? (Like socks.) That's one of the reasons we're excited to watch Ubaldo Jimenez this season. Which version of Jimenez will be in the Indians' rotation: The 2010 NL Cy Young contender or the inconsistent thrower that Cleveland fans saw in 2011? The Indians could use another ace beyond Justin Masterson. When the Tribe surrendered Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for Jimenez, it was a move that angered many fans and left others cautiously optimistic at best. While an incredible pitching performance isn't the only thing that determines a team's fortunes (see Cliff Lee, 2008), a great year for Jimenez could go a long way in determining the success of the Indians this season. If Jimenez struggles early, already pessimistic and dejected Indians fans may be ready to throw in the towel early. -- Stephanie Liscio and Susan Petrone, It’s Pronounced “Lajaway”

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera


You can take Justin Verlander and his impressive hardware. You can also have Prince Fielder and his nine-year contract. The player I'm most interested in is Miguel Cabrera. Will he play third base all year? How much will his defense (or Fielder) affect his offense? Can he continue his streak of 300/30/100 seasons? Cabrera is human, he's shown that to us in the past, and his new challenges are an intriguing storyline. -- Josh Worn, Walkoff Woodward

Kansas City Royals: Mike Moustakas


As he moved up the organizational ladder, Moose developed the reputation as a player with a learning curve delay: Whenever he moved up a rung, he would start slowly before making adjustments and laying waste to that league’s pitching. He held true to form last summer, struggling in his big-league debut to the point that there were whispers the Royals were considering dropping him back to Triple-A. Instead they opted to give him three days off to work with hitting guru Kevin Seitzer, breaking down his swing. It worked, as he ripped through September. Moustakas is poised to pair with teammate Eric Hosmer to give the Royals a one-two punch in the middle of the lineup they'll need to contend in the AL Central. If Moustakas can build on his September, he has the potential to be a special player in Kansas City for years to come. -- Craig Brown, Royals Authority

Los Angeles Angels: Albert Pujols


As you may have heard, Pujols signed with the Angels this offseason. The team has plenty of exciting players, but Pujols will be the man to watch in 2012. Can he bounce back after the worst season of his career? How will he adjust to the American League? There are plenty of questions about the 32-year-old and his huge contract, but we’ll see many of them answered this season. It should be a fun ride. -- Hudson Belinsky, Halos Daily

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer


In many ways, Joe Mauer's 2011 campaign was emblematic of Minnesota's season as a whole. He was hurt often, he didn't get it done on the field and he drew plenty of criticism from media and fans. The Twins, in their second year at a new stadium and with a record payroll, were a huge disappointment. Mauer, in the first year of a massive new contract, was a big reason why. So now he and the team are coming into 2012 with much to prove. Reports on his health have been encouraging and, as he showed in 2009 when he lifted an otherwise mediocre team to the playoffs with an MVP performance, Mauer can be a difference-maker. Relying on a roster dotted with more question marks than a Riddler costume, the Twins are going to need a few of those. -- Nick Nelson, Nick’s Twins Blog

New York Yankees: Michael Pineda


Ever since the Yankees missed out on Cliff Lee before the 2011 season, GM Brian Cashman has been preaching patience to Yankees fans. That patience finally paid off this January when they dealt top prospect Jesus Montero to the Mariners for Pineda. Ever since, Yankees fans have been impatient for the season to start to get a good look at their new young pitcher because there is more than just this season riding on Pineda's success. If he's a failure, Yankees fans will be crying for years watching Montero smack homers out in Seattle. -- Rob Abruzzese, Bronx Baseball Daily

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes


Cespedes is so blindingly obviously the most exciting aspect of the on-field product in Oakland that I'm tempted to be contrarian and claim that I'm jazzed for Josh Reddick's soft Georgia accent and cannon arm instead. I can't bring myself to it, though, because the raw power that Cespedes (supposedly) carries in his bat as a (reportedly) legit center fielder who is (apparently) ready to play (more or less) right now beckons. It's both what's inside and outside the parentheses that makes Cespedes so compelling. Forget about his range afield; his range of possible outcomes is breathtaking. Early Bobby Bonds and late Bobby Crosby both seem well within reach. And if the most compelling part of Cespedes' season winds up being a chase for the strikeout record in September? Well, my most prized A's possession is a Jack Cust shirt, so that suits me fine. -- Jason Wojciechowski, Beaneball

Seattle Mariners: Felix Hernandez


Picking anyone else would feel wrong -- Felix is the Mariner to be most excited about in 2012. The King is 6 1/2 seasons deep into his Mariner career and has at very least gotten himself in the conversation with Randy Johnson as the franchise's premier hurler. With a full season of King's Court -- the best thing to happen to Safeco Field since Safeco Field itself -- Hernandez's home starts will remain can't-miss events this summer. -- Jon Shields, Pro Ball NW

Tampa Bay Rays: Joe Maddon


I know Joe Maddon isn’t a player but they make him wear a uniform, so he is the 2012 Ray I am most excited to watch. From my seat, Joe outshines all the stars in the Rays clubhouse by standing in the background. Joe is a mad scientist when it comes to the lineup card, mixing and matching on a daily basis. I am on the edge of my seat waiting to see the creative ways he will use the 25 men in the Rays’ 2012 clubhouse. -- Marquis Heilig, The Ray Area

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish


Darvish is arguably the most exciting and most intriguing new face in the majors right now, and he's a Texas Ranger, which makes him a slam-dunk pick for the most exciting player to watch in Arlington this season. The Rangers bet historically huge money on Darvish and the hope that he can emerge as a true ace, but it's never the best idea to set the expectation bar that high, and I know I'll be more than satisfied with a legitimate No. 2-caliber performance. The promise of so much more, though, and the still mysterious aura that surrounds Darvish ... those qualities make Darvish the most exciting player in a Rangers uniform right now. -- Joey Matschulat, Baseball Time in Arlington

Toronto Blue Jays: Brett Lawrie


The Royals’ Mike Moustakas wasn’t the only highly touted third-base prospect to make his debut in 2011. Lawrie, a 22-year-old hitting machine with soft hands and great bat speed, gave Toronto fans a glimpse of their future at the hot corner. Acquired from the Brewers in a December 2010 deal for Shaun Marcum, Lawrie dealt with fractured bones in each of his hands in 2011, but still managed to compile a .293/.373/.580 line in 43 games at the major league level. His defense still needs some work, but it was his first full season at the position. The members of the Blue Jays brass think they have a keeper at the position. -- Diane Firstman, Value Over Replacement Grit

The awesome Baseball-Reference.com lists something called "similarity scores" for each player. Originally introduced by Bill James, similarity scores takes a player and compares his basic statistics to other players, starting with 1000 points and subtracting points for degrees in difference in various categories. It doesn't adjust for era or ballparks so isn't necessarily meant to be serious sabermetric analysis, but it is a fun tool.

Anyway, here are Clayton Kershaw's top 10 most similar pitchers through age 23:

1. Vida Blue
2. Dontrelle Willis
3. Hal Schumacher
4. Ramon Martinez
5. Jimmy Dygert
6. Dean Chance
7. Dave Boswell
8. Ismael Valdez
9. Al Mamaux
10. Ken Holtzman

Some of these guys had excellent, long careers like Blue and Holtzman. Others developed arm problems and never matched their early dominance (Martinez, Chance, Boswell). Two were pitches from the first two decades of the 20th century (Dygert, Mamaux).

Anyway, none became Hall of Famers. Which I promptly tweeted.

Does this mean we should be worried about Kershaw's future? There's an old axiom that too many innings on a young pitcher's arm may not bold well for a long career. Of course, teams are more careful about the workloads they give to young pitchers now than even 20 years ago. Martinez, another young Dodgers ace, pitched 234 innings at age 22 -- not much different than the 233 Kershaw just threw at age 23. However, Martinez had at least eight games of 130-plus pitches (we're missing pitch counts for a few other starts as well). Kershaw's high game at age 22 was 118 pitches and he exceeded 120 just twice in 2011.

Kershaw is a pretty unique talent, so I didn't necessarily like that list of comps. Here's another list. Most strikeouts through age 23 since 1947:

1. Bert Blyleven
2. Dwight Gooden
3. Frank Tanana
4. Larry Dierker
5. Sam McDowell
6. Fernando Valenzuela
7. Don Drysdale
8. Felix Hernandez
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Gary Nolan
11. Dennis Eckersley
12. Catfish Hunter

Now, I think Dodgers fans will agree that's a little better list, with four Hall of Famers. Not incuding Kershaw and Hernandez, Nolan had the fewest wins on the list at 110. He was a dynamic talent who battled shoulder injuries after dominating in the majors at age 19.

Gooden, of course, also dominated at age 19 and won his Cy Young at age 20. We don't have pitch totals for those early years, but we do have them from 1988, Gooden's age-23 season. He had eight games of 120-plus pitches, including one with 138 and another with 131. Actually, not too bad. But who knows how many pitches he had thrown from 19 to 21, when he averaged 248 innings per season.

Stating the obvious: the Dodgers have done a terrific job handling Kershaw's workload, slowly ramping up his innings from 171 to 204 to 233. That's no guarantee he'll have a long and healthy career -- and he'll have to prove he can handle the 230-plus innings year after year like Hernandez has shown the past three seasons -- but the Dodgers have done everything possible to protect their prized left-hander. There's no reason not to expect Kershaw to contend for a few more Cy Young trophies.

The Dodgers open the season April 5 in San Diego. Their home opener is five days later against the Pirates, so Kershaw should start that one as well.

I know it's been a rough year for Dodgers fans, but let's hope they show up en masse to support their Cy Young winner. I know I'll be watching.

Was there anything to talk about on a Tuesday afternoon in December? Of course there was! We discussed the Ryan Braun situation, Prince Fielder, whether the Mariners should trade Felix Hernandez, whether the Reds should trade Joey Votto, how the Washington Nationals' lineup should stack up and much, much more. ">Click here for the chat transcript.