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OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

There are few events in baseball more exciting than Opening Day. Or Opening Night. Er … let’s just go directly to some observations from the Cardinals’ 4-1 victory over the Marlins, ushering in Marlins Park in disappointing fashion for the home crowd onlookers.

• Kyle Lohse was brilliant, of course, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning and reminding everyone of Bob Feller's Opening Day no-hitter. Lohse said after the game that the no-hitter "probably did cross my mind after the fifth inning." He doesn’t throw hard, keeping hitters off-balance with a little slider and a changeup that he kept at the knees at night. Lohse had the best season of his career in 2011, although there was some luck built into it: He allowed a .269 average on balls in play, well below his career mark of .302. There’s nothing in the numbers that suggests he was doing something different -- his ground-ball rate matched his career and his line-drive rate was actually 1.1 percent higher than his career mark. Everyone expects some regression in 2012, but his first start was more 2011. No walks on the night and through six he threw a first-pitch strike to 13 of the 18 batters he faced. Hitters should know Lohse will come right after them when the bases are empty. He walked only 10 hitters last season in 469 plate appearances with nobody on; with runners, he walked 32 in 306 plate appearances.
• Josh Johnson allowed 10 hits for only the second time in his career. While a few of the hits were bleeders and bloopers, he did leave some pitches over the middle of the plate. We can’t read too much into the start other than that he threw 91 pitches, avoided the blister issue that popped up in spring training and has his first start under his belt. Undoubtedly, he was pumped up pitching the first game in the club’s new park in his first start since last May. There's no reason not to expect better results moving forward.
• There was miscommunication in the early innings between Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes as both pulled up on Carlos Beltran’s little trickler, allowing the ball to roll into left field. In the sixth inning with two runners on and Lohse up in a bunt situation, Johnson made sure to step off the mound and talk with Ramirez. That stuff will sort itself out, but the Marlins’ defense is an issue to keep an eye on. The Cardinals legged out two doubles to Logan Morrison in left field on balls that weren’t really even in the gaps. As Orel Hershiser said during the broadcast, "A lot of scouts are writing notes down about the arm of Logan Morrison." It doesn’t help that Morrison is still battling a sore knee that kept him out most of spring training, but he was a liability out there in 2011 even when healthy. According to the defensive runs saved metric, Morrison was 26 runs worse than the average left fielder -- the worst mark in the majors (only Raul Ibanez was in the same vicinity) and a whopping 46 runs worse than Brett Gardner’s majors-leading 23 DRS. There is a lot of ground to cover in deep left-center and center in the new park. In Emilio Bonifacio, the Marlins have an inexperienced center fielder (only 29 games started there in his career entering the season). Chris Coghlan, their other center fielder, rated minus-13 runs in 2011, the worst figure in the majors.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Lynne SladkyOpening night of the 2012 season found Kyle Lohse (26) looking a lot like his 2011 self.
• Giancarlo Stanton found out about those center-field dimensions, hitting two deep balls out there that were caught, a towering fly to the warning track in the fifth inning and a deep fly to right-center in the seventh that Jon Jay made a nice running catch on. It’s obviously too early to report on how the park will play, and it might play differently when the roof is open versus closed.
• Jason Motte threw some 99 mph smokebombs to finish it off. A bit of a step up from Ryan Franklin.
• For a while, Lohse had us thinking about the best Opening Day starts. Via Baseball-Reference.com, here are the best Game 1 starts since 1918:
  

  Walter Johnson, Senators, 1926: 111 (15 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 9 K)
  Lon Warneke, Cubs, 1934: 96 (9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 13 K)
  Bob Veale, Pirates, 1965: 95 (10 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K)
  Mel Harder, Indians, 1935: 95 (14 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K)
  Johnny Vander Meer, Reds, 1943: 91 (11 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 3 K)

  
  Six pitchers scored a 90: Bob Feller twice (including his 1940 no-hitter in which he walked five and struck out eight), Tom Glavine, Bob Gibson, Clint Brown and Johnson again with a 13-inning effort in 1919. The best recent effort was Felix Hernandez striking out 12 in eight shutout innings in 2007. Camilo Pascual holds the Opening Day record with 15 strikeouts for the Twins in 1960. Randy Johnson twice fanned 14 for the Mariners.

Opening Night down. Opening Day up next. Good times have arrived.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, two of 2011's top-five finishers in the NL MVP voting, switched leagues, making the 2012 race potentially wide open. Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp finished 1-2 in the 2011 voting, but Braun will have to show he can put up the same numbers without Fielder hitting behind him, and Kemp faces the same problem as 2011 -- his team isn't a good bet to make the playoffs. SweetSpot bloggers must like the Reds' chances of returning to the playoffs because they voted Joey Votto as the clear preseason favorite as he finished first or second on 25 of 39 ballots.

Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.

I like to do a rough estimate of a team's strength by starting off with their 2011 totals for runs scored and runs allowed, adding and subtracting for new players and projected performance, and see where we end up. Here is an estimate I a did a couple weeks ago on the Washington Nationals. With the Miami Marlins playing the Red Sox on ESPN this afternoon, and Tristan Cockcroft asking how Hanley Ramirez will bounce back , I thought I'd tackle the Marlins.

For all the hype around the Marlins, they won just 72 games a season ago. They scored 625 runs and allowed 702, which creates an estimated win-loss record of ... 72-90. Obviously, the Marlins move into a new park this year. Some believe it will be a better hitter's park than the old place. We haven't factored this into the numbers below.

Catcher: John Buck, Brett Hayes
Buck carried one of the heaviest workloads of any catcher in 2011, starting 129 games. I'd suggest the heat and humidity of the Florida summer caught up to him, but he hit just as poorly in the first half as the second half, and his .687 OPS was a fry cry from the .802 OPS he posted with the Blue Jays in 2010, when he made the AL All-Star team. Of course, 2010 was his career-year, his OPS+ of 87 essentially matches his career mark of 89. In other words, expect more of 2011, not 2010. No change.

First base: Gaby Sanchez
Sanchez made the 2011 NL All-Star team, which I think says more about the state of first base in the National League than Sanchez's abilities. He did hit .293 in the first half, but slumped to .225 in the second half, leaving his overall numbers pretty similar to what he posted as a rookie in 2010. While you might normally project growth for a third-year player, Sanchez is already 28; he's not likely to get better. He is what he is. No change.

Second base: Omar Infante
After hitting .309 from 2008 to 2010 in part-time role with the Braves, Infante was exposed a bit as an everyday player and hit just .276. He played a good second base, and I do believe he can do a little better with the bat as his BABIP was .298, down from .343 over the previous three seasons. Let's give an extra five runs here.

Third base: Hanley Ramirez
Marlins third basemen weren't a complete disaster in 2011, hitting .260/.315/.347, but with just six home runs and 44 RBIs. Believe it or not, that OPS was 12th in the NL. Anyway, a healthy Ramirez will obviously be a huge upgrade. For all the concern about Ramirez handling the move to third base, the other part of the equation is Ramirez has fallen off the plate the past few seasons, from .342 to .300 to .243. Most of the projection systems have Ramirez creating 90 to 100 runs, about what he produced in 2010 (97), but fewer than 2009 (122). Let's give 100 runs created here. Last season, Marlins third basemen created about 69 runs, so that's a 31-run improvement.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes
While Ramirez struggled at the plate in 2011, Emilio Bonifacio did a nice job filling in when Ramirez was injured. Marlins shortstops created about 87 runs. Reyes created about 105 runs a year ago -- in 126 games. Of course, he hit a career-best .337, which led to career-bests in on-base percentage and slugging percentage as well. The projection systems estimate Reyes around 80 to 85 runs created in a similar amount of playing time -- hitting about .300 with a .350 OBP. Let's give him 85 runs created and a few more for his substitute, giving 105 overall, an 18-run improvement. Certainly, that's probably conservative. Maybe Reyes stays healthy for 150 games and creates 115 runs.

Left field: Logan Morrison
Marlins left fielders (mostly Morrison) created 92 runs in 2011. Morrison is certainly capable of improving upon his .247/.330/.468 line, especially in the on-base department. I'm looking for a 15-run improvement.

Center field: Emilio Bonifacio
Chris Coghlan, Mike Cameron and Bryan Petersen each started at least 35 games in center a season ago. None exactly tore it up, and Marlins center fielders posted a collective .317 OBP with 14 home runs, worth about 76 runs created. Bonifacio, serving as a full-time utility guy, hit .296/.360/.393 and swiped 40 bases. He doesn't have any power, and the .360 OBP might be a little over his head, so the projections systems are a little down on him. All told, some combination of Benifacio, Coghlan and Petersen should do a little better. I'll call for an additional nine runs.

Right field: Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton hit .262/.356/.537 with 34 home runs as a 21-year-old. He could explode on the league this year (in fact, I like him as a sleeper MVP selection). I'm going plus-13 runs, and I believe that's a safe prediction.

Leaving aside pinch-hitting and pitchers' hitting, that adds up to a 91-run improvement. That would take the Marlins up from 625 runs (11th in the NL) to 716 runs (seventh in the NL, based on 2011 figures, but just 19 behind No. 2 Cincinnati and Colorado).

Now to the pitching. In 2011, Marlins starters allowed 486 runs in 944.1 innings or 4.6 per nine. Ace Josh Johnson went down after nine starts, but the Marlins received 29-plus starts from four other pitchers. Let's break down the rotation into five slots:



And here's how the rotation stacks up for 2012, using estimates based on various projection systems:



Old guys: 162 starts, 944.1 IP, 486 runs
New guys: 154 starts, 958 IP, 430 runs

Now, you can argue that's too optimistic, getting 154 starts from five pitchers -- after all, Johnson made 33 starts in 2009, but just 37 over the past two seasons, and Zambrano's durability is also an issue -- but that's what we're going with for now. Obviously, you can do your own adjustments if you don't believe Johnson will make 30 starts. Anyway, add in eight more starts at 40 innings and 25 runs (a low estimate of 5.6 runs per nine) and you end up with 998 innings and 455 runs allowed, a 31-run improvement.

The Marlins bullpen was pretty effective in 2011, allowing a 3.44 ERA, sixth in the NL. The big addition was bringing in Heath Bell as the closer to replace Juan Oviedo, currently on the restricted list after it was discovered he wasn't Leo Nunez. I view this as a minor upgrade; Bell has been one of the game's best closers the past three seasons, but he's also a flyball pitcher who benefited from the deep dimensions of Petco Park. His strikeout rate also took a serious plunge in 2011 (11.1 per nine to 7.3), so that's another red flag. I like some other Marlins relievers -- Steve Cishek is a sidearming groundball machine who was effective against both sides of the plate; Michael Dunn is a power lefty; Edward Mujica is a control guy who throws strikes, but can give up some home runs. If Oviedo returns, it should be a pretty deep pen. Overall, I'm going to project the Marlins' pen as being the same as 2011, when it pitched 515 innings and allowed 216 runs. Since we project more innings from the starters, we'll take some away from the bullpen, leaving it with 461 innings and 195 runs -- 21 fewer runs.

So we end up with:

Offense: +91 runs, for new total of 716 runs
Pitching: +52 runs, for new total of 650 runs

We haven't factored in defense, where the major changes will be Reyes replacing Ramirez at shortstop, and Ramirez replacing Greg Dobbs and others at third base. Baseball Info Solutions rated Marlins shortstops at minus-16 runs a year ago; Reyes rated minus-11 and hasn't rated above average on defense since 2007. At third base, the Marlins rated minus-10; we don't know how Ramirez will show at third, but I have to think he has a chance at improving on that. In center, the Marlins could also show a slight improvement, as Coghlan got the most innings out there in 2011 and he's a below-average center fielder. Overall, the Marlins could see slight improvement from their defense. Let's say 15 runs, knocking their runs allowed down to 635 runs.

This gives them an expected winning percentage of .530 -- or 86 wins.

Note: I screwed up the math in the original piece. 716 runs scored and 635 runs allowed translates to a winning percentage of .555, or 90 wins.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

For the next two weeks, "Baseball Tonight" (airing at 3:30 p.m. ET) will take a closer look at players in the spotlight for 2012 and ask the question "What's next?" for that player. Share your thoughts in the comments section and join in the discussion.

Hanley Ramirez saw his production drop significantly in 2011, as he dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness.

Ramirez finished with a batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage slash line of .243/.333/.379, all career lows. His OPS dropped by 141 points from 2010. He then was informed he’d be switching positions with the Marlins' signing of Jose Reyes.

One of the issues Ramirez faced in 2011 was that he was unable to do something that usually netted him positive results -- pull balls in the air.

Ramirez became an opposite-field fly ball hitter and his performance subsequently dipped, as the charts on the right illustrate.

Along with that, Ramirez had trouble driving fastballs, sinkers and cutters thrown to the upper-third of the strike zone and above.

When Ramirez made contact with what we called a high, hard pitch in 2009 and 2010, he hit .420 with 66 hits and nine home runs. That dipped to .256 with 11 hits and two home runs in 2011.

The heat map below further shows Ramirez’s struggles.

 

So, what's next for Ramirez? Will he bounce back strong in 2012? Discuss below!

Now that we’re waiting for these last few days to pass before pitchers and catchers report, it’s worth remembering that beyond the usual camp fights and reps as players get into regular-season shape, we’ll also see a few players challenged as they never have been: challenged to change positions.

Every club has different motivations for attempting this sort of thing: immediate need, making room for a major free agent or fulfilling a long-term plan for a younger player. What are the 10 most interesting attempted position switches to watch this spring?

1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, from 1B to 3B: Cabrera’s bulk might seem like a major stumbling block to his making a jump to the hot corner now that Prince Fielder is manning first base. Although Cabrera started at the hot corner for the Marlins, he was a regular there in only two full seasons, 2006 and 2007; Baseball Info Solutions graded his defense 27 runs below average across those two seasons.

Tigers skipper Jim Leyland has plenty of experience with making the best of a bad situation at the hot corner. He tolerated Bobby Bonilla’s fielding at third base for the ’97 Marlins despite long exposure to Bonilla’s bad hands and scattershot arm as a Pirate back in the ’80s, for example. But fundamentally, can Cabrera do it? That seems like a stretch, but over a full season, he might not have to. The Tigers can rotate him or Fielder to DH now and again, and Cabrera also has plenty of experience in left field -- another position where the Tigers don’t have to play any one guy regularly.

With Leyland in the dugout, it’s worth keeping in mind that no manager in baseball today is more aggressive when it comes to using defensive replacements -- even if Cabrera acquits himself better than expected, don’t be surprised if Brandon Inge keeps busy as a frequently used substitute.

2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins, from SS to 3B: Another move made to make room for a free agent. The immediate expectation is that an athletic shortstop like HanRam should be more than capable of jumping to third base. Shortstop is supposed to be harder, after all, so the expectation is that Ramirez might go from a questionable glove at short to a defensive asset at third.

However, it’s worth remembering that not all of these moves turn out well. As Michael Humphreys documents in his excellent "Wizardry: Baseball’s All-Time Greatest Fielders Revealed," Chipper Jones was an example of a former shortstop with tremendous athletic ability moved to third, only to deliver initially awful results in his first several seasons. Humphreys goes on to point out that Alex Rodriguez hasn’t become a great or even a good third baseman since starting out as a competent shortstop, and if your memory goes back to the ’70s and ’80s, neither did Toby Harrah.

So Ramirez’s value at third base is no sure thing, and how well he adapts will be a matter of hard work in camp.

3. Neftali Feliz, Rangers, from closer to starter: We’ve been through this before, as Feliz was prepped to start for the Rangers last spring only to wind up back in the bullpen. This time around, with veteran closer Joe Nathan in the fold, the transition should stick. Feliz has consulted with Pedro Martinez on the nature of the challenge of moving to the rotation -- a move Pedro had to make when the Dodgers distrusted his ability to withstand the workload of starting.

In Feliz’s case -- unlike Pedro’s -- his size or stature has never been a stumbling block, and he’s always had the broad assortment of plus stuff you’d associate with a top starter. Between the plus changeup he added in 2008 and the power breaking stuff he hasn’t had to use as often out of the 'pen, he’ll do more than keep people guessing. Because he’ll be entering his age-24 season, the Rangers will be sure to monitor his workload, but every other light is green on this project.

4. Daniel Bard, Red Sox, from reliever to starter: If Feliz’s transition is part of a grand design, Bard’s seems more a matter of immediate need. However, it’s worth remembering that Bard started out as a starting pitcher prospect and a first-round selection. He didn’t really turn the corner with the slider that now complements his 97 mph fastball until he moved to the ’pen in the minors. Will he be able to throw it as effectively a second or third time through a big league lineup? His changeup might wind up becoming the key off-speed pitch in his arsenal that gets him all the way through 90-100 pitches and into the sixth inning.

5. Mark Trumbo, Angels, from 1B to 3B: This hasn’t gotten nearly the same kind of attention that Cabrera’s has in even less time, but that’s because Trumbo’s success is not a critical component to the Angels’ plans the way Cabrera’s is to the Tigers. General manager Jerry Dipoto is adamant that, after he recovers from a stress fracture in his foot, Trumbo’s move off first base to make way for Albert Pujols won’t be to one position but to a superutility role, playing all four corners and DH as Mike Scioscia tries to find ways to squeeze Bobby Abreu, Vernon Wells, Kendrys Morales and Trumbo into the lineup when there are just two lineup slots they can have to themselves.

Even if Trumbo’s healthy, there’s the question of whether he can really make the jump to third. He’s never played there in the minors, let alone the majors, and he was better known as a top pitcher in high school when the Angels drafted him. As experiments go, this seems desperate and might not survive to see the light of Opening Day.

6. Chris Sale, White Sox, from reliever to starter: This move is more like Feliz’s shift to the rotation than Bard’s, because it was anticipated from the day the White Sox drafted him in 2010 that he had the stuff to eventually start. But his arm was good enough to make the majors in a relief role just weeks after his selection. With Mark Buehrle’s defection via free agency, a slot has opened up, so the Sox can proceed with what they’ve always wanted from Sale: a southpaw tower of power capable of pumping pure gas from the mound. Although 2012 hasn’t been a season to look forward to on Chicago’s South Side, watching Sale every fifth day should be something people pay to see.

7. Jayson Werth, Nationals, from RF to CF: This isn’t guaranteed to happen, but it’s a very likely outcome should top prospect Bryce Harper somehow wind up making the team as the starting right fielder. The argument over whether Harper will be ready is one major hurdle, but whether Werth would be able to handle center field over a full season is another.

In baseball history, only two men as tall as Werth’s 6-foot-5 have ever played anything close to every day as a center fielder: Alex Rios of the White Sox over the past two years and the Phillies’ Von Hayes for big chunks of 1984 and 1985. Werth’s listed weight, 220, is heavier than either Rios' now or Hayes' then -- he’s simply a much bigger guy. Drew Stubbs is another big man in center -- he’s 6-foot-4, but also almost 20 pounds lighter. The Braves’ Dale Murphy was famously big for center, but at 6-4 and a listed weight of 210, he was also smaller than Werth.

If Harper makes a case to the Nats to play on Opening Day, could Werth really handle the pounding of racing gap to gap over a full season? If you have your doubts, you’re not alone, especially in light of GM Mike Rizzo’s recent decision to bring back Rick Ankiel (although on a minor league deal).

8. Jim Thome, Phillies, DH to 1B: As Jayson Stark pointed out last month, Thome’s challenge in moving back to playing a position might be remarkable, but he won’t be the only famous forty-something to have spent time at first base. But because he's played all of four games at first base in the past six seasons, concerns about his durability given his extensive track record for injury -- including two DL stints last season -- come to the fore.

However, even with the initial expectation that Thome will be little more than a Sunday starter and regular pinch hitter, you’ve got the open question about how much playing time in left John Mayberry Jr. might have to log, as well as the dubious proposition that Ty Wigginton will hit enough to handle the spot. Given the uncertainty about his lineup, Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel might well be tempted to take a few chances with Thome.

9. Daniel Murphy, Mets, utility to 2B: It remains to be seen how serious the Mets are about attempting to return Murphy to the keystone after he was knocked out with knee injuries -- while playing second base, no less. He has never been able to handle second base as a regular at any level as a pro, having played just 19 games there in the minors. This is a lot like what the team went through with Keith Miller more than 20 years ago. Even with the “Hal McRae rule” to protect second basemen, a basic level of agility is required at second base -- to protect yourself and to move around the bag effectively -- and there’s reason to doubt Murphy has it after injuries to both knees, if he ever had it in the first place.

10. Sean Doolittle, Athletics, 1B to pitcher: Speaking of knee injuries, bum wheels essentially ruined Doolittle’s shot to stick as a position player. The former supplementary first-rounder from the 2007 draft was a two-way star at Virginia in college. Now the A’s are trying to recoup some value from their investment by putting that arm to good use on the mound. He made an initial effort on the mound last season, throwing an inning in rookie ball. You can never know how these things will turn out, but Sergio Santos is the most recent example of a strong-armed player enjoying an overnight success with a move to the mound; A’s fans might have at least this one small chance to daydream.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

It’s another day in chilly Dallas for Keith Law, but he braved the elements for the Baseball Today podcast as he and I discussed the latest rumors and happenings from the winter meetings, including:

1. OK, Mr. Pujols, you’ve apparently got your crazy offers, so make a decision. We explain how recent developments could signal a quick ending to this situation.

2. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Miami Marlins infield from Albert Pujols is former shortstop Hanley Ramirez. Is he happy? Is he sad? Does it matter? We try to think like Hanley.

3. Meet the new Mets, making all kinds of deals and rejuvenating their bullpen. Well, perhaps not rejuvenating, but at least they added pieces. We analyze the Mets-Giants trade.

4. And there’s more involving closers on the move, as the Padres get a guy they didn’t need, the White Sox move a guy they didn’t seem to need to move, and where will Ryan Madson and other free agent save fellows go?

5. Finally, Keith talks about what the GMs are actually doing in Dallas, where he likes and doesn’t like the meetings to be held, and congratulates a friend on making it into the Hall of Fame!

So tune in to Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast and be entertained and informed! We’ll be back on Thursday to wrap the winter meetings!

DALLAS -- The most important player for the Miami Marlins may not be Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez or even Albert Pujols.

No, it's the guy Mets manager Terry Collins referred to on Monday as "the big horse."

In the first few weeks of the 2011, Josh Johnson may have been the most dominant pitcher in the majors. In his first nine starts, he gave up 13 runs, allowed zero runs or one run in six of those starts, held opposing hitters to a .185 average and just two home runs and memorably outdueled Roy Halladay in a 2-1 victory on May 10. One start later, he developed a strain shoulder. He was supposed to return in August, but was eventually shut down for the season.

Johnson's importance to the Marlins is vital. With the departure of free agent Javier Vazquez (who may retire), the rotation is thin behind Johnson and Anibal Sanchez. Ricky Nolasco continues to be a tantalizing talent, but the fact is his ERA over the past three seasons is 4.76 and his strikeout rate has declined the past two seasons. Chris Volstad remains a sinkerball pitcher who gives up too many home runs.

That's why, along with pursuing Albert Pujols, the Marlins have been in on C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle. They need to strengthen the depth of a rotation that posted a 4.23 ERA that ranked 12th in the National League. But the success of the rotation will begin with the health of Johnson.

Collins said as much on Monday: "If they can get that big horse out there 30 times, they're going to be something."

Jose Reyes was officially introduced Wednesday and as team president Larry Beinfest said, "This is a lot more pleasant than facing him 18 times a year." Beinfest pointed out the speed and energy the Marlins will now have at the top of the order with switch-hitters Reyes and Emilio Bonifacio. Beinfest quickly addressed alleged reports of Hanley Ramirez being unhappy about a move to third base, saying "Hanley is a key to our team. He has been and he remains a unique talent. ... We think they'll be the best left side of the infield in baseball."

Hanging over the Reyes news conference, of course, is the unresolved situation with Pujols. But as the Marlins wait for Pujols to decide on their reported 10-year, $220 million offer, you wonder if that money wouldn't be better spent in another direction: Why not go after Prince Fielder and Buehrle instead of shelling out so much for a player -- as great as Pujols is -- who would be 41 years old by the end of the contract?

Based on speculation and reports, it may be possible to get Fielder for something like seven years and $160 million, plus a team option (just under $23 million per season). For Buehrle, a guaranteed fourth season may be the winning solution and he could come in around four years, $60 million.

Just going by 2011 numbers, Pujols had a 5.4 wins above replacement (WAR) value. Fielder was at 5.2 and Buehrle 3.7. Even if Pujols rebounds to a slightly higher level, it's unlikely he's going to be a nine-win player over the next four seasons. As big a splash as Pujols would make in Miami, the wiser baseball decision may be to go after Fielder and Buehrle.

After all, a lineup headlined by Reyes, Ramirez, Fielder, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison is still imposing. And a rotation with a healthy Josh Johnson and Buehrle looks more imposing as well.

DALLAS -- Let's have a little fun as we speculate whether Albert Pujols will sign with the Miami Marlins.

A lineup that includes Pujols, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton certainly has the possibility to be one of the most imposing in the game.

In fact, the Marlins would have the potential to be that rare team to feature at least four position players with a WAR (wins above replacement) of 5.0 or higher. Here is the career-best single-season WAR for each player, via Baseball-Reference.com:

Pujols: 10.9
Reyes: 5.9
Ramirez: 7.6
Stanton: 5.7

Now, that's a little misleading, as Pujols' 10.9 season came in 2003 and Ramirez was injured and struggled in 2011. Here are the 2011 totals for each player:

Pujols: 5.4
Reyes: 5.8
Ramirez: 0.5
Stanton: 5.7

Only 29 teams since 1901 have had four five-win position players (two had five and only the 1939 Yankees had six). The last teams with four such players were the 2003 Braves and Cardinals.

2003 Braves
Marcus Giles: 8.2 (yes, Marcus Giles)
Gary Sheffield: 7.6
Javy Lopez: 6.6
Andruw Jones: 5.1

(Even though he posted a .402 OBP, Chipper Jones graded as 3.6-WAR player, with bad defense in left field contributing to that.)

2003 Cardinals
Pujols: 10.9
Jim Edmonds: 7.3
Edgar Renteria: 6.5
Scott Rolen: 5.1

The 2001 Mariners -- who won 116 games -- had five five-win players:

Bret Boone: 9.3
Ichiro Suzuki: 7.6
Mike Cameron: 6.4
Edgar Martinez: 5.5
John Olerud: 5.3

(The 1972 Reds, with Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, Tony Perez and Bobby Tolan were the other team with five five-win guys in their lineup. The famed 1939 Yankees had six: Joe DiMaggio, Bill Dickey, Charlie Keller, Joe Gordon, Red Rolfe and George Selkirk.)

Anyway, having four players of such high caliber would certainly be a rarity, as its happened just 10 times in the past 30 years.

For 10 years and $220 million, maybe the Marlins will make it happen.

Everybody kept the saying the Miami Marlins had to ante up a little more if they wanted to sign Jose Reyes.

Now that they raised their stakes to $106 million to bring the shortstop to Miami -- well, it seems like a lot of money for a who guy hit seven home runs and missed 36 games in 2011.

That’s a bit of hyperbole, of course; even missing 36 games, Reyes was one of the most valuable players in baseball. FanGraphs.com ranked Reyes as the 15th-best position player in the majors, Baseball-Reference had him at No. 13. With the number of topflight shortstops at a minimum right now, Reyes’ leadoff skills and speed made him a premium free agent.

The Marlins didn’t need a shortstop, not with three-time All-Star and 2009 NL MVP runner-up Hanley Ramirez under contract through 2014. What they did need was a third baseman, after their third basemen hit just six home runs and combined for a .662 OPS, 23rd in the majors. Ramirez will slide to third, where Ozzie Guillen hopes he rebounds from his own injury issues in 2011, when he was limited to 92 games and hit just .243, 70 points below his career average entering the season.

Obviously, after missing 191 games the past three seasons, Reyes comes with enormous health risks. During the 162-game schedule era, which began in 1961, only 13 shortstops have averaged 140-plus games per season from ages 29 to 34. Not surprisingly, none of them had the extensive injury history that Reyes has had prior to their age-29 seasons. Even ignoring 2009, when he played just 36 games, Reyes has missed 65 games the past two seasons. It seems fair (and logical) to assume Reyes will miss an average of 30 games a season over the life of this contract -- or more than an entire season’s worth of games. That’s what kept the Mets, and presumably other teams, from matching the Marlins’ offer of six seasons.

There are couple more red flags to raise about Reyes. First, his .337/.384/.493 easily established career highs in all three triple-slash lines. This was primarily due to a .353 average on balls in play, well above his career mark of .314. The question here: Was there a new approach or something in the numbers that showed he was an improved hitter in 2011? Check some of his 2011 rates versus his career percentages:

Line-drive percentage: 21.2 percent in 2011 versus 20.2 career.
Walk rate: 7.3 percent in 2011 versus 6.9 percent.
Strikeout rate: 7.0 percent in 2011 versus 10.5 percent.

Reyes struck out less often and walked slightly more often, but that didn’t necessarily mean his plate discipline was improved -- he actually swung at 32 percent of pitches that were outside the strike zone in 2011, higher than his career mark of 26 percent. What he did was make contact more often on those swings -- 83 percent versus a career rate of 72 percent.

And a fair share of those swings resulted in hits. Maybe it was a new-found ability to put those pitches in play and hit them hard somewhere. But it also could have been a guy who simply had a red-hot May and June. He didn’t hit as well after his initial injury in early July; yes, that could have been lingering effects from the tweaked hammy, or a guy just leveling off towards his true ability.

So while I think it's quite likely Reyes just had a career season at the plate, Reyes doesn’t have to hit .337 and post a .384 on-base percentage to be a great player. He was one of the best players in the National League from 2006 to 2008, when he hit .292 with a .355 OBP. Since 2006, there have been only 39 shortstop seasons with a .350-plus OBP, or about six per year. If Reyes can get on base at that clip, with his speed and defense, he’ll remain one of the top players in the league and his $100 million contract will be justified ... even if he does play just 130 games per season.

* * * *

Quick note on that defense: Reyes doesn’t grade out as terrific defender, despite his strength and speed -- he's plus-8 in Defensive Runs Saved via Baseball Info Solutions since 2006, but minus-11 in 2011; still, he should be an improvement over Ramirez, who rates as minus-24 runs over the past two seasons.

And while the Marlins have made a big splash with Reyes and Heath Bell, I don't think they're suddenly instant playoff contenders. The upgrade from Leo Nunez to Bell is marginal at best and may prove to be something less as Bell has to perform outside the canyons of Petco Park. They have to figure out how to replace Javier Vazquez in the rotation. Center field defense with Emilio Bonifacio and/or Chris Coghlan remains an issue.

On the other hand, if Josh Johnson is healthy ... if Ramirez adapts to third base and regains his stroke ... if they can find another starter ... if Logan Morrison improves at the plate ... and if their pursuit of Albert Pujols ends in another big pot of gold being delivered ... well, I think we'll finally find out what kind of baseball city we have in South Florida.

* * * *

What does this mean for the Mets? Well, on the most basic level of analysis, this was a team that won 77 games in 2011; going by Baseball-Reference WAR, they’ve lost about 12 wins with the departures of Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Chris Capuano and Francisco Rodriguez (although Beltran and K-Rod didn’t play the whole season with the club). Ruben Tejada likely steps in for Reyes and he’s better than a replacement-level shortstop, although more in the line of a two-win player as opposed to a six-win player. Lucas Duda is slated to become the regular right fielder, and if he hits .292/.370/.482 again, the Mets will have a solid right fielder. Closers are almost always replaceable.

That said, 12 wins won’t be easy to replace, even if Johan Santana comes back and David Wright stays healthy and Ike Davis returns. It’s still early in the offseason, but it’s looking like a long winter for Mets fans.

You’ve already seen the Jose Reyes rumors. If he makes a decision to sign with the Miami Marlins, the team would suddenly have two of the very few playable people at short between the former Met and Hanley Ramirez. Such a signing would make an already grim bit of holiday shopping for several NL contenders into a deal-or-die exercise.

Consider which players are on the market at short beyond Reyes: Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal and... and a collection of people you sign with a sense of necessity, if not outright regret. Clint Barmes. Ronny Cedeno. Even Cesar Izturis. It’s the sort of market that might make even Nick Punto or Jack Wilson start to look good, even for guaranteed money.

Then consider which teams have postseason ambitions for 2012, and who also need a shortstop -- and their chance for Reyes already gone. Start with the world champion Cardinals sans Furcal, the Phillies sans Rollins, the Braves, the Brewers and the Giants. They’re all more likely to spend on a shortstop than the back-of-the-pack teams needing to find a shortstop, like the Astros and Pirates.

And that’s the problem in a nutshell at shortstop: There aren’t all that many somebodies capable of playing a good short and contributing on offense to go around. If Reyes settles early, the subsequent scramble could be the most interesting development of the winter. At the very least, the bidding on Rollins could go nuts, especially those teams that don’t have a shortstop prospect worthy of the name in their very near future. The Phillies have their hopes for Freddy Galvis, the Braves their own for Tyler Pastornicky; both clubs are probably the willing “losers” on this winter’s shortstop market, gunning for veteran shortstops they can sign for a year to keep the seat warm.

But that kind of consideration aside, this is one line you don’t want to be fourth in. The expectation the Pirates will pay Barmes eight figures over two years illustrates the downside. Even if you like Barmes’ defense, he’ll struggle to achieve a .300 OBP -- he’s at .302 career, 10 points better than Yuniesky Betancourt, 11 better than Alex Gonzalez.

As a result, the chance is obviously there for teams with some depth at short to make a trade. The Red Sox have their surplus with Marco Scutaro, Jed Lowrie and Mike Aviles all marking time while Jose Iglesias approaches the majors. There’s some speculation the Nats could swap Ian Desmond, which might involve pushing Danny Espinosa across the bag to short to make room for Stephen Lombardozzi at second. (That sort of creative expansion of shortstop alternatives helps explain why the Twins struck early to add Jamey Carroll, despite questions about his defense.) Given the potential payoff in prospects if the Padres are willing to deal, Josh Byrnes may well decide to peddle Jason Bartlett’s remaining season under contract -- for $5.5 million, or what now might be referred to as Clint Barmes money -- to a contender.

Indeed, the market's so weak and the contrast between the big three of Reyes, Rollins and Rafael Furcal versus all of the alternatives so significant, that you can understand why a team that doesn't get its top target this winter might decide to change gears and chase one of the shortstops. Take the Cardinals' situation. If they can't convince Albert Pujols to stick around, they shouldn't throw the money at another first baseman -- they have Lance Berkman already available to move to first, creating an opening for Allen Craig. They'd still be short at shortstop, though, which might drive GM John Mozeliak's top priority to be going after Rollins or retaining Furcal.

For those teams that don’t get Reyes or Rollins or Furcal, they can still potentially win with the other guys. The D’backs made it into the postseason with Willie Bloomquist doing his gosh-darned best bit of David Eckstein impersonation at short, and the Brewers treated people to the spectacle of being the first and probably last team to reach a League Championship Series with Betancourt as its everyday shortstop. And the Cardinals got by with Ryan Theriot at short for a significant portion of the season -- before taking off down the stretch for, among other reasons, replacing him with Furcal.

But with Furcal starting the Cardinals went 29-18. It’s that sort of immediate pick-me-up that will help inspire GMs to try and avoid finishing fourth in this particular race, because the difference between the shortstops you want to pay to play, and the ones you employ because you have to is so stark.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The unique history of the Marlins franchise took its latest twist in the singular trail they’ve been blazing since they were launched as a big-league concern back in 1993. On Friday night, they officially made the long-anticipated switch from being the Florida to the Miami Marlins, with new uniforms to match, and a Pitbull mini-concert to mark the occasion.

In barely two decades of existence, theirs has been perhaps the strangest franchise saga in the game’s history. Two-time world champs in 1997 and 2003, but otherwise averaging 10 games below .500 per 162-game season over the rest of their existence, the Marlins have become the game’s enduring rags-to-riches-to-rags story. But where that sort of on-again, off-again relationship with success might inspire some sort of enthusiasm from their fan base -- unlike many older teams, they have actually won the World Series -- attendance has become reliably terrible. In the past 13 seasons, they’ve finished last or next-to-last in attendance a dozen times.

The hope is that the new, retractable-roof stadium they’ll open up in the Little Havana neighborhood next spring will bring their attendance issue to an end. They’ve already brought in the reliably engaging Ozzie Guillen to manage the team, a face transplant from the White Sox that will help forge an identity for a franchise that has long lacked any defining characteristic beyond a vague sense of vagrancy.

That sensibility has only been exacerbated by transience in the owners’ suite, with the switch from Wayne Huizenga to John Henry to Jeffrey Loria in their brief existence. Huizenga clearly gunned to buy a pennant, then dumped salaries once the players had won him his ring. Henry was a temp, perhaps merely biding his time for the franchise swap to come. And Loria’s outfit arrived after seemingly sabotaging any attempt to keep the Expos in Montreal. There has also been a ton of attendant controversy to the Marlins and their place in the surrounding community, especially after the leaks of their reported profitability while annually crying poor, which triggered a successful initiative to recall Miami’s mayor, Carlos Alvarez.

But with a new park and a new identity, it seems like the Lorians are setting down roots and the Marlins are gearing up to become a Miami institution. They seem to have money to spend, creating the additional expectation is that they’ll be able to make a play for major free agents for extended stays. They’ve already met with Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Albert Pujols, three of the top six players on Keith Law’s list of the best free agents available. They’ve also been attached to rumored bid for spurned Phillies relief ace Ryan Madson, another one of the best available players at his position on the market.

They’re clearly playing for higher stakes, but to their credit they’ve also been building up to this for a while. They got their best players signed up long-term in plenty of time. Hanley Ramirez was signed to a long-term commitment in May 2008, and they made a multi-year commitment to Josh Johnson in January 2010. It was only after coming up short on their bid to keep Dan Uggla in Miami with a long-term deal that they dealt him away to Atlanta, where his contract might wind up helping the Marlins by handicapping the Braves’ bottom line.

With all of that buildup, and questions about their new uniforms aside, the Marlins could be prepped for another wild ride to postseason glory after throwing around some money this winter. Whether or not they sign one or all of Pujols, Reyes, Buehrle and Madson, this year’s bid for winning with free-agent talent will be meant to achieve more than another rented hello-and-good-bye championship. If they deliver on that promise, it’ll be Miami mooning over them instead of the other way 'round.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Yesterday, in recognition of Hispanic Heritage Month, we talked about one person's list -- mine alone -- for the AL team's all-time greats of Hispanic heritage, so naturally enough, let's turn to the senior circuit and look at the best of the National League's teams.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Although a recent expansion addition to the circuit, the Snakes have a clear favorite in Luis Gonzalez, who as recently as the All-Star break was inducted into the Hispanic Heritage Baseball Museum Hall of Fame. Gonzo's also the man who beat Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning of Game Seven of the 2001 World Series, a postseason feat unlikely to be forgotten any time soon.

Atlanta Braves: If you make the mistake of thinking this is about Latin America versus what is or isn't culturally Hispanic, you might count Andruw Jones, but the Netherlands Antilles aren't culturally Spanish or Portuguese. Among the Braves' Hispanic players, the choices boil down to Dominican bopper Rico Carty or catcher Javy Lopez of Puerto Rico. While the 'Beeg Boy' won the 1970 batting title, I'll go with Lopez for his playing a key role on the great teams of the Braves' recent dynasty.

Chicago Cubs: Arguments over how he got there will go on for as long as we're willing to debate the impact of PEDs on performance, but Dominican Sammy Sosa's easily the most productive player to call Wrigley Field home. His 545 homers top all Cubs ever, and his .569 SLG as a Cub is second only to Hack Wilson.

Cincinnati Reds: You can make arguments for either of two great Latin players who were key players for the Big Red Machine: first baseman Tony Perez of Cuba, or Venezuelan shortstop Davey Concepcion. Concepcion was a career Red, so 19 years in the Queen City puts the nimble defender high up on the Reds' al-time counting stats, while “Big Doggie” moved around a bit, but was mostly, essentially, a Red. Per WAR, it'd Perez's place, but I'd also cite Joe Posnanski's fine The Machine, which helps remind us today how important Perez was then to a team stuffed with stars.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies have never had a shortage of great Latin players, but perhaps surprisingly, none of them have had long careers in Denver. Ubaldo Jimenez would have been an easy choice if he hadn't already been traded away, while Mexico's Vinny Castilla mashed 239 homers in nine seasons manning the hot corner. However, let's use this as an opportunity to give well-traveled Andres Galarraga some love, because the Big Cat was the team's first star by winning the batting title in the franchise's inaugural season in 1993.

Florida Marlins: Between going by teams and the near-impossibility of anyone sticking around as a Fish for any great length of time, it makes for a short list, but Dominican Hanley Ramirez makes for a relatively easy selection, although you can offer honorable mentions to Luis Castillo, Miguel Cabrera, Anibal Sanchez and Livan Hernandez for their contributions to the Marlins' strange, episodic history.

Houston Astros: Given a choice between Cesar Cedeno and Jose Cruz, you could easily pick either player and have good reason to. Cedeno was a wonderful center fielder and may well be the least well-remembered great player of the '70s, while Cruz was the gifted all-around hitter hurt badly by a career almost entirely spent shackled by the Astrodome. I'm slightly biased towards Cruz (a personal favorite back in the day), but for purposes of this sort of exercise, it's easy to leave this as a tie.

Los Angeles Dodgers: While you could concoct an argument for Pedro Guerrero because he was one of the best bats of the '80s, this is a slam dunk: Fernandomania, baby! Fernando Valenzuela's breakthrough was a national phenomenon, as the Mexican southpaw provided both peerless pitching early in his career -- winning the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards in 1981 – with unprecedented box-office and media value in Los Angeles. His unique delivery and nifty screwball are things you had to see to believe, putting him on a short list of pitchers you never forgot after watching him work.

Milwaukee Brewers: It isn't a strong field, but it wasn't Teddy Higuera's fault that his career flamed out early, as injuries sapped the Mexican hurler's career early on. He still ranks third all-time in wins for the team while handily leading their pitchers in career WAR as a Brewer, not too shabby for what was essentially a six-year run spent in relative obscurity.

New York Mets: Carlos Beltran wins via WAR, but he's also been tabbed as the Royals' best, while better health from Johan Santana would have made him worth choosing. So let's use the opportunity to cite Jesse Orosco, who holds the all-time record for games pitched on a career.

Philadelphia Phillies: It's perhaps characteristic of the franchise and city that its greatest Latin player, Venezuelan Bobby Abreu, was dumped on the Yankees at the deadline in 2006 -- for nothing, effectively -- but Abreu's brand of patience and power made him an offensive keystone for nine years, hitting .303/.416/.513.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Roberto Clemente, the easiest great to note in a wide field of greats, and the first Latin to win an MVP award in 1966.

St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols has become as easy a selection as Clemente, but with a career that's still going strong, the question best asked might be whether or not the man who will unseat Lou Gehrig on all-time lists walks and plays among us.

San Diego Padres: Strangely enough, the border town franchise doesn't have a storied history where its Latin talent is concerned, but native son Adrian Gonzalez makes for a good fit, even with his recent shuffle to Boston.

San Francisco Giants: There's a fun debate to be had over whether this ought to be the Baby Bull, Orlando Cepeda or their Dominican ace of the '60s, Juan Marichal. Much like Galarraga and Perez, Cepeda was a hard-hitting first baseman who got around -- he immediately followed Clemente as the NL MVP in 1967, for the Cardinals, but started out winning the Rookie of the Year award in 1958 (second in this as well, as Luis Aparicio was the first to win in 1956 with the White Sox). Against that, Marichal had six 20-win seasons and 238 victories for San Francisco while contributing the highest Giants WAR pitching tally since Christy Mathewson. Whether as a matter of career value or peak value as a Giant, I think you have to go with Marichal.

Washington Nationals: Vladi Guerrero has already gotten credit as an Angel, but since this is the franchise stolen from Montreal, stealing the Impaler from their list might seem an additional injustice. However, doing so opens the field to tab Nicaragua's greatest player, El Presidente. In a 23-year career, Dennis Martinez won 100 or more games with both the Orioles and Expos, pitched the only perfect game thrown by a Latin pitcher, and nearly helped deliver Cleveland a long-awaited championship as a 40-year-old workhorse in 1995.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Myself and Keith Law had plenty of things to talk about on Wednesday's Baseball Today podcast , including:

1. The disaster in St. Louis. What the heck was Tony La Russa thinking in the eighth inning?

2. Whether or not Logan Morrison and Ricky Romero were wrong for calling out their teammates. Speaking of: What does Keith think of Hanley Ramirez's future?

3. Max Scherzer lost, but he's still 9-3. But how good is he and how good will he be?

4. What would a hard slotting system in the baseball draft mean?

5. Keith talks about some prospects he saw Tuesday night in Staten Island.

Plus: Maikel Cleto's 100-mph fastball, a College World Series preview of Vanderbilt-North Carolina, David Price versus Shaun Marcum and much more!