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You know, Fernando Rodney has never really been that good. He had 44 good innings for the Tigers in 2005 and he was tough to hit in 2006, when he had a 3.52 ERA. But from 2007 through 2011, he posted a 4.42 ERA, hardly impressive for a relief pitcher, and allowed a ton of baserunners (1.50 WHIP) as he always walked too many batters (5.2 walks per 9). He lucked into 37 saves for the Tigers in 2009 despite a 4.40 ERA and other uninspiring numbers (41 walks, 61 strikeouts, eight home runs in 75.2 innings).

So of course the Angels gave him $11 million, and then were surprised when it turned he was wild and ineffective.

And then the Tampa Bay Rays signed him. The Rays are always in search of power arms for their bullpen. Sure enough, Kyle Farnsworth gets hurt, Joe Maddon decides to sort of make Rodney his closer, he starts throwing strikes for the first time in his career and now he's 2-0 with 11 saves, no blown saves, no extra-base hits allowed and a .232 opponents' OBP, more than 100 points below his .342 career mark.

Can he keep it up? Look, I've learned never to bet against Maddon, but we have a long track record of wildness from Rodney. I doubt the Rays were the first team to tell him, "Throw more strikes."

Anyway, it's been an interesting season for closers, with nearly half the teams in baseball needing to replace their projected closer since spring training began. Of 33 relievers to record at least three saves, only 16 of them have an ERA under 3.00. We have 46 starting pitchers with an ERA under 3.00. Fifteen closers have an opponents' OBP under .300; 52 starters do. (Yes, there are more starters than closers, but still ... shouldn't the guy pitching three innings a week be a little more dominant?)

While Rodney has been perfect, closers have struggled:

• Miami's Heath Bell has three losses, four blown saves, a 10.03 ERA and 30 baserunners allowed in just 11.2 innings. He's basically unusable right now, even if he's a Proven Closer.
• Jose Valverde, Mr. Perfect a year ago for Detroit, is proving you can walk a tightrope for an entire season but that your luck will eventually run out. He has two blown saves, a 5.51 ERA and 12 walks in 16.1 innings.
• Frank Francisco has three losses for the Mets, two blown saves, an ERA on the wrong side of 8, one ejection and too many walks.
• Henry Rodriguez, who replaced the injured Drew Storen in Washington, throws 100 mph but has three blown saves (two of which were losses). I guess he's not a Proven Closer.

And so on. Let's just say you know it's a strange season when we're singing the praises of Fernando Rodney.

Keith Law and I ended this final full week of April on the Baseball Today podcast with intelligent discussion about American League outfielders in the news, a weekend preview, and much more!

1. Detroit Tigers outfielder Delmon Young is in the news for all the wrong reasons, leading us to wonder if the Tigers will deem his role on the team worth keeping around.

2. One guy that won’t be around for a while is Boston Red Sox outfielder Carl Crawford. Will this guy ever be the same?

3. We’ve seen Phil Humber be very good and very bad in a span of one week. What should we expect moving ahead from him, as well as struggling Miami closer Heath Bell?

4. Our emailers have questions about pitchers using their legs, Justin Smoak’s development and what the Cardinals will do with Lance Lynn.

5. Plenty of good baseball will be played this weekend, and we examine the series we’ll be watching and why pitcher wins don’t always tell a complete story.

So download and listen to Friday’s Baseball Today podcast, check out Sunday night’s Rays-Rangers game on ESPN, and have a great weekend!

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

The Marlins have noisily associated themselves with most of the biggest big-name free agents, flirting with Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson. Now, a lot about this smacks of aggressive brand promotion now that the Fish have brought in Ozzie Guillen to manage, changed their look, and anticipate moving into their new stadium next spring. It would be remarkable if they land any one of those four free agents, but the rumors buzzing around their reaching an agreement with the Padres’ Heath Bell could have legs.

Keep in mind that the Marlins could already anticipate their expenses expanding by $15 million from 2011 to 2012 thanks to having back-loaded their multi-year commitments to Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and John Buck among others. That’s before getting into the expense of haggling with plenty of arbitration-eligible players; they may sensibly discard the entirely replaceable guys, the Joe Nelson types, as they did before, but doing so might spoil all the good vibrations they’re so busily trying to cultivate among an understandably skeptical fan base.

So even before Larry Beinfest and Mike Hill could start spending some significant chunk of the Lorians’ lucre, you could reasonably expect the Fish to top a $70 million payroll in 2012. We’ll see how far they’re willing to go beyond that, and whether by attaching themselves to some of the market’s biggest stars isn’t just a case of trying to keep their name in the papers with all of the dignity of a D-list socialite chasing after paparazzi instead of the other way around.

The reason Bell might be different has everything to do with their situation and his. Where the aforementioned quartet of big names are all in demand and likely to sign elsewhere for bigger money than the Fish are used to flinging around, Bell may not have quite as much going for him as the free agents in greatest demand.

First, there’s his age. Bell was already almost 30 before he got his break with the Padres after the Mets prematurely ditched him in a ticky-tack trade in 2006 that defied easy rationalization. He’ll be 34 next season, so it isn’t like he’s in the same situation as Jonathan Papelbon or even Ryan Madson. As a result, this represents his first and probably only chance to score an eight-figure multi-year commitment, but his age probably militates against his getting everything he wants.

Also arguing against his getting top dollar is how much benefit he’s gotten from pitching in Petco Park the past five years. Career, he’s allowed just 2.5 runs per nine in San Diego, against 3.8 R/9 everywhere else he’s pitched in the majors. He’s become more of a fly-ball pitcher since coming to the Padres, which can be seen as adapting and exploiting the park’s wide-open spaces, but with that goes a slightly higher rate of homers allowed on the road: 0.6 to 0.4 HR/9, so we aren’t talking about Lidge-like combustibility here, but it’s another cause for concern.

Then there’s his strikeout rate’s decline. It dropped below 30 percent of all opponents’ at-bats for the first time in his Padres career. Given that very few people whiff hitters at that clip forever, it isn’t like last year’s 20 percent K-rate is cause for extreme alarm, since he's still above-average and throwing around 94 mph. But it’s another factor that bidders can talk up while trying to talk down Bell’s price.

Put those three things together, and you can see how Bell could be the kind of quality closer the Marlins would be willing to afford. With the sticky legal situation over the identity of Leo Nunez/Juan Oviedo (aka, the closer to be named later), the have an opening and might be able to hand-wave their way past the various mild causes or concern that go into making a multi-year commitment to Bell. Keep in mind, we have no real idea how the Marlins’ park will play, but Bell’s track record is more than good enough overall to get him major money and a multi-year commitment, even if he doesn’t get beyond an Average Annual Value of $10 million per year in the deal.

Getting three years guaranteed might entail giving up no-trade protection or a guaranteed donation to the team charity or whatever other bits have to be wangled to make everyone happy. Here’s hoping that, both parties willing, this is one rumor that’s going somewhere.

Friday P.M. postscript: This post went up a couple of hours before the announcement that Bell had agreed to terms with the Marlins on a three-year, $27 million deal, a contract that includes provisions for a fourth-year vesting option for another $9 million.

Depending on your point of view, this was wonderful, terrible or significant, or some combination thereof. Naturally, a lot of statheads decried the expense, wailing over Bell's declining strikeout rate -- without noting that it's still higher than league average -- and his fly-ball rate, without observing that it was higher before he had Petco to pitch in, and without anyone having any idea how Municipal Shakedown Stadium will play.

Mostly, the shrieking was over the idea that closers are overpriced and fairly fungible, a point I'm generally in agreement with. Lots of people can and do quite nicely as closers when you give them the opportunity. I wouldn't go so far as to say anybody can close, because it isn't like you want a situational specialist getting over-exposed, and you can't just chuck the notion that some guys just aren't comfortable in the role. But .

But this also goes to Jim Bowden's point, that the Marlins sent a message with this deal. Unlike getting Hanley Ramirez or Josh Johnson or Ricky Nolasco to agree to multi-year deals, those contracts were matters of using the leverage of club control to induce their own players to accept financial security. Signing Bell's different -- they Marlins landed a man on the market, available to all.

You could argue that they paid a premium for that by paying a deal with a $9 million AAV, but Bell got a lot less per annum than Jonathan Papelbon ($12.5 million AAV for four years) for a shorter stretch, and more than Joe Nathan for longer ($7.25 million AAV over two). And as I speculated, they'd get him for less than eight large per year, but offer a third guaranteed year to get him. In essence, the Marlins behaved like an equal competitor on the market, and that's new for them. You can bet players and their agents will notice.

On the other hand, “everybody's doing it” isn't exactly the ultimate in justifications for doing something, even when you're a team with a rep as lousy as the Marlins when it comes to paying people. The ready demand from the smart set is that the Marlins could have gotten somebody else nearly as effective for less. That's a reasonable argument, but only up to a point -- the Hot Stove league doesn't operate like a true open market, because not everyone is available. Trading for alternatives is great to posit in the abstract, liberating some put-upon set-up man robbed of the opportunity to rack up saves, but the teams that employ them have this annoying tendency of wanting to keep them for themselves, or demanding value in trade.

Put it all together, and I think the expense -- and the message it sends -- can't help but improve the Marlins' chances to land another big name in free agency. If it's Albert Pujols or Jose Reyes, that's something. If it's Aramis Ramirez, on the other hand... well, we'll just have to see, won't we?

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

We crammed an hour's worth of discussion into just more than 30 minutes on Wednesday's Baseball Today with Jim Bowden. Among the topics:

1. Is there actually any chance the Rockies and Astros will complete a trade for Wandy Rodriguez?

2. Jim breaks down the Arizona-Toronto trade and we try and figure out what Kirk Gibson will do with his new infielders.

3. Bartolo Colon struggled again, so how would Jim align the Yankees' postseason rotation right now? And would Detroit start Justin Verlander on three days' rest? Hey, it's never too early to talk about the playoffs!

4. Jim explains why the Padres are unlikely to trade Heath Bell.

5. How important is the final month for Jose Reyes?

Plus: User emails, Jered Weaver's new contract, can Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw bring home some big hardware and more, all on Baseball Today.

Most of the questions involved trade rumors, but we also got into whether J.D. Drew has been underrated during his career, the awfulness that is Adam Dunn and Alex Rios and much more. Check out the transcript here.

Here are the top five reasons -- and there are like 324 reasons in all -- why you should listen to Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast with myself and Mark Simon!

1. ESPN contributor and former GM Jim Bowden makes his Baseball Today debut, discussing many topics, including the frailty of closers, Evan Longoria leading off and how the Buster Posey collision should have been avoided. That answer might surprise you!

2. Mark discusses a landmark Memorial Day around the big leagues, and whether weather might adjust statistics from here on out.

3. It's Power Rankings day, and let's just say one of us regrets jumping on the Cleveland Indians bandwagon. I should have known better! We list our top 10 and bottom five.

4. How is a pair of pants like Oliver Perez? I concede this is an odd one, but hang with us and you'll understand.

5. The Tuesday night schedule is full of young hurlers with bright futures, but we also discuss the ESPN battle in St. Louis. Are you taking Ryan Vogelsong or Chris Carpenter. Think about it ...

Plus: Excellent emails, brothers hitting home runs, how the umpires added to the Twins' discontent, today's birthdays, the Royals change closers and Bartolo Colon just keeps on keepin' on. All this and more in a packed Baseball Today podcast for Tuesday!

As always, plenty to talk about in the wonderful world of baseball. Topics ranged from Adrian Gonzalez to Jair Jurrjens to Josh Tomlin to Jose Bautista to Brandon Belt to baseball's best closers. The question came up in relation to Atlanta rookie closer Craig Kimbrel. I suggested he might be a top-3 closer already ... and I'll stick to that. Here are my top five closers right now:

1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees: Had a couple hiccups, but still has a WHIP under 1.00 and hasn't allowed a home run.

2. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: He struggled with location last season, but he seems back on his game with a 21/2 SO/BB ratio in 16 2/3 innings.

3. Craig Kimbrel, Braves: With 34 K's in 20 2/3 innings, his strikeout rate leads closers (even better than Carlos Marmol). The control isn't precise (10 walks), but he's dominating right now.

4. Drew Storen, Nationals: He looks like the real deal with a 0.71 WHIP, 1 HR in 23 innings and a 19/5 SO/BB ratio.

5. Neftali Feliz, Rangers: Injured earlier and a little rusty coming back, but should be fine once he gets in gear.

Worth considering: Brian Wilson, Giants (not as dominant this year, but worked very heavily last season); Heath Bell, Padres (benefits from home park); Joakim Soria, Royals (hasn't been as overpowering so far); Marmol, Cubs (unhittable, but still wild); Ryan Madson, Phillies (looking good so far).

1. Should the Brewers panic about John Axford? I think they should be nervous. He was legit last season, with 11.8 K's per nine, but he may have been a little lucky by allowing just one home run. His career minor league BB/9 rate was 6.0, which he cut to 4.2 in the majors. If some of that wildness returns, then hitters can sit on the fastball, like Ramon Hernandez did.

2. I really don't like when managers use their No. 4 or 5 reliever in the bottom of the ninth (or extra innings) and save their closer if they take the lead. What if Chad Qualls or Pat Neshek blows that game and you never get to Heath Bell? Use Bell first and then the other guys.

3. Ryan Franklin has skirted a fine line for years as a closer without dominating stuff. The flyballs stayed in the park in 2009 when he allowed two home runs and posted a 1.92 ERA. They flew out more frequently in 2008 (10 home runs) and 2010 (seven home runs) and his ERA was a run-and-a-half higher. I'd be a little nervous about him.

4. The Angels' bullpen had some shaky moments as well. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. Fernando Rodney is hardly a dominant closer and on paper there isn't much depth beyond Kevin Jepsen and Hisanori Takahashi.

5. Albert Pujols. Three GIDP. He's now worth only $299,999,999.

6. Lots of empty seats in Yankee Stadium Thursday, especially behind home plate. No surprise. Padres-Cardinals in the 11th inning ... and the stadium is half empty. Surprising.

7. Jon Jay: Welcome to TLR's doghouse.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

SAN FRANCISCO -- If Clayton Richard settles down the Giants dig themselves out of this four-run hole and this game turns into a battle of the bullpens, you'd probably figure the Padres have the edge.

And you might be right. But you might be wrong.

Yes, San Diego's relievers sport a 2.81 ERA, lowest in the National League. But the Giants aren't far behind, in third place with a 3.09 mark.

Let's look at their specific guys.

The Padres have Heath Bell (1.86 ERA, 86 strikeouts/27 walks), but the Giants have Brian Wilson (1.83, 92/26).

The Padres have Luke Gregerson (3.21, 88/18), but the Giants have Santiago Casilla (2.08, 53/26)

The Padres have Mike Adams (1.80, 71/23) , but the Giants have Sergio Romo (2.24, 68/14!).

Really, the Padres have just one real weapon the Giants don't: left-hander Joe Thatcher, who's been almost unbelievably brilliant in his 63 games -- and only 35 innings -- this season. If Bud Black needs to retire a lefty swinger in a key spot, he can bring Thatcher in and feel really confident.

As edges go, though, this one's particularly small tonight. Because the Giants have just one key left-handed hitter, Aubrey Huff. And I'll bet Joe Thatcher's thinking about Huff already.

Should be an interesting off-season in Queens. FanHouse's Ed Price:

There has been little doubt for a while the Mets will not bring back Jerry Manuel as manager, and a source confirmed reports that general manager Omar Minaya is likely out as well. Ownership seems to be leaning toward hiring an experienced GM, as they are not inclined to promote assistant GM John Ricco, and Wally Backman -- a popular ex-Met who was nearly manager of the Diamondbacks before the team discovered some off-field issues he didn't disclose -- as manager.

As Craig points out, there don't seem to be a great many candidates for Minaya's job. There's Kevin Towers and ... well, that's about it if the Mets are looking for someone with plenty of experience and a winning record. And Towers is considered one of the top candidates for the job in Arizona.

Which is to say, I don't have any idea who's going to get the job. I do think the problem's been ownership as much as general managership, but maybe the next guy will prove me wrong.

More than anything, I just wanted to use this chance to mention (again, probably) how badly Omar Minaya messed up with Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez.

Last season, Bell led the National League with 42 saves. This season, he's got 41 saves and hasn't blown a chance since late May.

Of course, not so long ago Bell was a Met and Minaya gave him away.

Well, that's not completely true. Minaya traded Bell and Royce Ring to the Padres for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson. Since then, Adkins and Johnson have combined to appear in 14 major league games and Heath Bell has 85 saves and a 2.51.

How did this happen? I wasn't there. Maybe Bell was biting the heads off chickens and spitting their blood at elderly clubhouse attendants. But my guess is that Minaya placed too much faith in Bell's short time in the majors and not enough faith in his minor-league performance.

In 2005 and '06, Bell pitched 64 games for the Mets -- 84 innings -- and gave up a whopping 107 hits. At the same time, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was excellent: 3.25 with plenty of strikeouts.

Since joining the Padres, Bell's strikeout-to-walk ratio has stayed roughly the same. He's given up slightly fewer home runs. The big difference has been the hits. Which might have been predicted, considering his (apparent) bad luck with the Mets and his solid numbers in the minors.

Granted, there was no reason to think Bell would become this good. But if Minaya had held on to Bell for just one more season -- in 2007, he pitched brilliantly as Trevor Hoffman's setup man in San Diego -- he might have been dissuaded from spending $47 million on Francisco Rodriguez, who a) hasn't been as good as Bell, and b) is now in a big bowl full of trouble.

If Minaya had trusted the numbers, today he would have Bell and $47 million of baseball players not named Francisco Rodriguez.

Everybody makes mistakes. But this was a real doozie.