ESPN MLB

The Reds received a game-changing grand slam in the sixth inning to take a 5-2 lead against the Braves on Thursday night, leading to their sixth consecutive victory and their first sweep of the Braves since 1980. It wasn’t superstar Joey Votto who provided the knockout punch, nor was it mainstays Brandon Phillips or Jay Bruce. The home run came off the bat of one of the Reds’ many unheralded young players: 23-year-old rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco.

The blast also marked Cincinnati’s 10th home run of the series, leading to 14 of its 16 runs in the series. Winning with home runs is nothing new for this Reds squad, not at Great American Ball Park and certainly not in the Joey Votto era. But Votto didn’t hit a single homer in the series. Neither did Bruce. Phillips hit two. Instead of the three stalwarts on this Reds squad, it was the supporting cast leading the way: Mesoraco (1), Drew Stubbs (3), Zack Cozart (2), Todd Frazier (1) and Mike Leake (1).

Leake’s homer backed up a quality start on Monday, and the other home runs backed up quality starts from Mat Latos (Tuesday), Bronson Arroyo (Wednesday) and Homer Bailey (Thursday). The Reds saw scoreless outings from five different relievers and saves converted by three. To accomplish this in any series is excellent; to do so against the second-highest-scoring team in the league in one of the best hitters’ parks in all of baseball is another.

Depth and pitching have set this year’s Reds squad apart from last year’s version, a preseason favorite for the National League Central crown that was eventually lapped by both the Brewers and Cardinals. The 2011 season saw a 156 OPS+ from Votto and 119 OPS+ marks from both Phillips and Bruce. No other full-time starters came close; only part-time players Chris Heisey (113), Ramon Hernandez (113) and Miguel Cairo (101) even mustered an above average mark.

This season has seen the likes of Paul Janish, Edgar Renteria and Jonny Gomes excised in favor of Cozart (.727 OPS) and Frazier (.887). It has seen Stubbs come to life after three horrible series to open the year -- he owns a .266/.324/.430 line since April 17 to go with his typical fantastic defense. It’s seen Ryan Hanigan pick up his game as well, with a .794 OPS in 27 games as the starting catcher.

Johnny Cueto owns a phenomenal 2.22 ERA over 33 starts dating back to May 2011, but it was the other four Cincinnati starters who held down the Braves this week. Latos started out cold, but has a 2.35 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 23 innings in May. Arroyo has a 121 ERA+ after allowing a near-record 46 home runs last season, owning an absurd 44-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 58.2 innings. Bailey and Leake have had their rough spots, but they fit well in the back of the Reds’ rotation -- a tough job with half of their starts coming in the bandbox in Cincinnati.

The bullpen has established itself as one of the league’s best. Regardless of what one thinks Aroldis Chapman’s role should be, it is undeniable that he is the league’s best reliever. In the four-game sweep of the Braves, he pitched two more scoreless innings. Chapman fronts a bullpen full of talented pitchers: Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek and Alfredo Simon all own ERA+ marks of 137 or higher. Sean Marshall shouldn’t be counted out either despite a rough start -- he was one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons.

The Reds currently sit atop the NL Central, with a half-game lead over the Cardinals. As usual, Votto, Phillips, Cueto and Bruce lead the way. But if the Reds maintain their current success and carry it through to a playoff run, it will be because this year they didn’t have to do it all themselves.

It’s another Opening Day! Can you feel the excitement? Keith Law and I can, and we talk about the big ESPN Cardinals-Marlins game for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast along with plenty of other stuff!

1. I set the over/under on Josh Johnson starts for 2012 at 26, and KLaw sends back his opinion. Will Marlins fans be happy or sad with his answer?

2. Do we have the defending champs or the Marlins in the postseason? All the preseason predictions are posted at ESPN.com, and we discuss our choices.

3. A pair of AL East closers hit the shelf with injuries, but there’s really no need for the Red Sox and Rays to panic. So will they panic?

4. Keith digs into his scouting bag of tricks to discuss how the Pirates handle young pitchers and how scouts judge outfield arms.

5. Stephen Strasburg, Lance Berkman and more Yankees bias are topics for our emailers.

So download and listen to Wednesday’s fun Baseball Today podcast, our first in which we preview a 2012 game in the USA! Many more to come!

To put it delicately, Dusty Baker has a conflicted history with starting pitchers. There was that decision on the final day of the 1993 pennant race to give the ball to a rookie named Salomon Torres. Or handing the game ball to Russ Ortiz when he removed him with a lead in Game 6 of the 2002 World Series. Or letting Mark Prior rack up some astronomical pitch counts back in 2003.

Now Dusty has another tough decision to make: Who starts for his Cincinnati Reds? As I said on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, it could be the most crucial decision any manager makes in 2012.

You see, Baker has options. Most managers are forced to make a decision only by a certain string of events -- one player gets hurt, you go with your next-best option or whomever management calls up from Triple-A. You rarely even see position battles in spring training anymore. But for Baker and the Reds, it's not that simple. Once you get past Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos and Mike Leake, the Reds have four options for the rotation: Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman and Jeff Francis. Having options is a good thing, of course. But what makes those four players so intriguing is that any of the four could work out; any of the four could blow up.

Here's a review of the four:

Bronson Arroyo: After winning 17 games with a 3.88 ERA in 2010, the Reds' inexplicably gave him a two-year extension through 2013 at $23.5 million. Bronson did have a good year in 2010, but he was still a home run-prone pitcher with a declining strikeout rate. Among 92 qualified starters that year, he ranked 82nd in K's per nine. In 2011, he ranked 86 of 93 ... and his home runs allowed skyrocketed to 46, the third-highest single-season total ever. So while there's a very good chance he's done, he's also owed a lot of money. And he's a veteran. Dusty loves those veterans. He hasn't pitched well this spring -- nine innings, two home runs, three walks, three strikeouts.

Homer Bailey: The seventh pick in the 2004 draft, we've been hearing about Bailey ever since, first as a prospect and then as perennial disappointment. His ERA didn't reflect it, but he did make some progress in 2011, cutting his walks to 2.3 per nine while maintaining an acceptable strikeout rate (7.2 per nine). I penciled him as a good breakout candidate. He hasn't pitched well: 11.1 innings, three home runs, six walks, three strikeouts -- although he did pitch four scoreless innings in his last outing.

Aroldis Chapman: The big Cuban with the 100-mph fastball is being given a chance to start again after spending 2011 in the Reds' bullpen, where he was unhittable (.147 average allowed) but Ricky Vaughn-esque (41 walks in 50 innings). Does he have the stamina to last as a starter? In seven innings in big league spring games he's allowed just one walk with seven K's.

Jeff Francis: Signed to a minor league deal, the veteran left-hander has looked good this spring with no walks and eight strikeouts in 13 innings.

What does Baker do? Bailey is out of options so has to remain on the roster. He could go to the bullpen but the Reds are already seven deep there. Chapman could be sent down to Triple-A to get more starts under his belt, although that would deprive Baker of a big bullpen weapon. Francis has said he'll report to Triple-A if required.

The easiest solution is probably to send Chapman down and let him make at least a few starts in Triple-A. The issue there: What if he's better than Bailey? What if Arroyo can't curb his gopherball issues? How long do you stick with either guy? The Reds don't project as a powerhouse, so every game could be crucial to making the playoffs or just missing the playoffs.

The spotlight is intense on Baker. I can't wait to see what he and GM Walt Jocketty decide to do.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

On Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast, SweetSpot writer Dave Schoenfield and I had loads of fun, as we always do, discussing not only the pertinent breaking news of the day, but Shoeless Joe Jackson and Jay Johnstone (he wears his shoes apparently) as well.

1. Chipper Jones says this will be his final season, and we aim to put his tremendous career in proper perspective, while also looking ahead for the Braves.

2. The defending champs could be without No. 1 starter Chris Carpenter for a little while or a long while, but should the Cardinals panic?

3. Homer Bailey is scuffling this spring and Aroldis Chapman and Jeff Francis are not. Is Dusty Baker on the hot seat in Cincinnati and who will be the No. 5 starter?

4. We love our emails! Dave and I reminisce about the greatest season ever voting from a few weeks ago, Jacoby Ellsbury’s worth in baseball and to the Red Sox, and much more!

5. Why was Jay Johnstone hitting right-handed in the movie I watched this morning? Does it bother anyone else? Thankfully, when it comes to inaccuracy in flicks, I’m not alone!

So download and listen to Thursday’s fun Baseball Today podcast because, let’s face it, Dave and I had a good time and that’s what this should be about!

I asked readers on Twitter to name their top choice for breakout player for this season.

The question is fairly vague, although I did say not to include rookies like Yu Darvish, Matt Moore and Mike Trout, players who have received plenty of hype and will have high expectations.

Out of 100 responses, I got 63 different names listed, although that included my friend Thomas jokingly picking Don Kelly. Who knows, maybe Kelly will push Miguel Cabrera to full-time designated hitter. Anyway, here are the players who received more than two votes:

Justin Smoak, Mariners: 7
Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: 6
Brandon Beachy, Braves: 3
Mike Minor, Braves: 3
Dexter Fowler, Rockies: 3
Travis Snider, Blue Jays: 3
Lucas Duda, Mets: 3
Brandon Belt, Giants: 3
Dustin Ackley, Mariners: 3

This is what makes baseball so exciting and unpredictable. Some of the 63 guys mentioned will break out. All 63 certainly have a chance to break out, even in the vague definition of the term. And while Lawrie is an obvious candidate after his monster performance late last season, we don't know if Smoak or Belt or Fowler will become a big star. Maybe one will; maybe all three will. It's why we watch. My own pick: Homer Bailey. Long-heralded, he finally started putting it together last season. Cincinnati's a tough place to pitch so I'm not expecting a 3.18 ERA or anything, but I think he can get that ERA in the 3.50-3.75 range and become a solid No. 3 starter behind Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto.

Some comments from Twitter:

Dexter Fowler. I think this is DexFo's year to break out and become the third part of the Tulo, Cargo, Dexfo triumverante. -- @sskapyak

@LoMoMarlins Goes off .300/.405/.515 with a bump in power numbers. -- @faust74

Brett Lawrie is gonna have a memorable season. -- @GTAdross

Matt Wieters. Continues to cut his strikeouts down, .840 OPS in the second half of 2011. -- @GreenLineOutfit

I like jordan zimmermann to really break out this year. Keeps the ball in the park and limits his BBs #checkoutmynewWHIP -- @TheMuzz34

Cameron Maybin. Finally puts up a .290-20-90-50 campaign like the Tigers and Marlins expected. --@djameson87

Kris Medlen? Very good when healthy, and is finally healthy. Will play a huge roll for Braves this year. --@Max_Jensen10

Mike Stanton. He will lead the Majors with 45 HRs. --@JoeBoria

Alex Gordon, will have an MVP type season and finally live up to his potential --@Sean_Bealer

Justin Smoak. Or is that just wishful thinking?? --@CRoscoe2121

One of the reliable tropes about both general managers and managers is that everybody’s good at something. Some managers might be exceptionally good with getting the most out of a veteran roster, and some GMs might be especially effective in adding that talent. Certainly, in Cincinnati a win-now hook was part of the rationale behind enabling Walt Jocketty’s palace coup when he took over the Reds from Wayne Krivsky at the start of the 2008 season. That was certainly part of the reason why they’d already put Dusty Baker in the dugout as well.

And to some extent, you can call the last four seasons in Cincinnati a modest success. Through 2011, payroll had only grown 17 percent (before inflation). The Reds have significantly raised their performance margins within the old Bill James “Plexiglass Principle”: Instead of ping-ponging between 70 and 80 wins as they had during the Aughties, they’ve won 78, 91 and 79 games the past three years, a much happier range to be bouncing around.

And for all that, they’re about as exasperating a team as you could imagine, because Jocketty and Baker are supposed to deliver. Last season’s climb back down below 80 wins from their 2010 Central Division title was all the more disappointing because so many questions remain unanswered. Perhaps first and foremost among those questions is their rotation -- deep, talented and immensely frustrating.

Before the 2010 season, you could be understandably excited about the Reds’ rotation depth. In the abstract, a list with Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood and Aroldis Chapman on it is supposed to make you excited about a team’s near-term future.

Unfortunately, that was before so many things went wrong. For all that talent, the Reds rotation averaged a Game Score of 50 on the season, better than just four teams in the league. Cueto’s shot at winning the National League ERA title was squelched by shoulder woes early and neck problems late in the year. Chapman was sent to the pen, struggled with his command, and shipped to the minors, remaining in relief role after his return. Bailey landed on the disabled list twice, and it was his right shoulder both times, making it three times in two years that’s happened. Wood gave them 10 quality starts in his first 16, but the Reds were frustrated and shipped him to Triple-A for two months anyway. A couple of weeks later, Volquez followed him to Louisville, sporting an unintentional walk rate of 5.6 BB/9 while allowing 15 homers in 85 innings pitches.

That is not to say the picture’s entirely bleak. Bailey managed to notch quality starts in more than half his turns (13 out of 22), a career first for him. When healthy, Cueto is the ace they need to contend again. Leake turned in a fine sophomore season.

However, the FIPs for Bailey (4.02) and Leake (4.19) don’t suggest they’ll join Cueto at the front of the rotation. That’s also not any better than Wood (4.03 FIP), if the Reds are willing to give him a second chance. Volquez might not get even that; his name shows up in trade rumors, and despite the poor performance arbitration is only going to make him more expensive to employ the next two seasons.

Sorting out the Reds’ rotation to pick their best five guys is going to require judgment. But you could have said that about them last year too, only to see them wind up resurrecting Dontrelle Willis. Whatever the basis on which those choices are made -- scouting, stats or both -- the challenge for Jocketty this winter will be picking his ponies and then having Dusty watch them run. That sounds easy enough, but the problem is whether or not you can reasonably hope for the Reds to pick the right guys.

Take the Reds’ recent big-picture decisions, and the most recent developments. Last winter, Jocketty gave Bronson Arroyo a three-year, $35 million extension to be the rotation’s veteran workhorse. They were rewarded with a 46-homer season, the second-highest single-season tally in National League history. Sure, it’s clever to defer payments to lower the contract’s annual average value below $10 million per year, but it’s still a massive multi-year commitment to Bronson Arroyo, a nice mid-rotation innings-eater at the best of times. Unfortunately, the deal was to keep him around for his age-34 through age-36 seasons, which weren’t likely to be the best of times, and haven’t been.

Any hopes that the Reds might move Chapman back to the rotation any time soon are on hold after he came up with a sore shoulder in the Arizona Fall League. As a result, they scrapped plans to let him start in winter ball.

Cueto, Bailey and Chapman, all top young pitchers, all coming up sore-armed on Dusty Baker’s watch? Even if Baker is being more careful with young pitchers than he was with another talented trio in Chicago, we’ve certainly been here before.

And then there’s the Reds’ rumored interest in Jair Jurrjens of the Atlanta Braves. Jurrjens is also someone most statheads expect to see take a tumble in 2012, by as much as a full run given a 3.95 FIP to his 2.96 ERA. That’s assuming that the right knee that has shelved him three times in two years holds up, and that’s without getting to an additional pair of DL stints in the last two years for injuries to an oblique and a thigh.

On paper, adding another body to their rotation depth would seem like the last thing the Reds should be worrying about -- they already have seven guys for five slots, and they’re struggling to identify which ones are their real keepers. It certainly doesn't reflect well on their current crew, although teams willing to trade for any of the non-Arroyos wouldn't be hard to find. If Jurrjens is the solution, maybe it's the decision-making process that tells the Reds to go after him that is the problem.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Like more than a few teams, the Reds are nearing the season’s one-third mark mucking around .500, They’re closer to fifth place than first in the NL Central, but in today’s parity party, half the league is within single three-game series of the Reds.

But the Reds can’t afford to be sanguine about their lot, not when the roster has been an unsettled mess. What started off on paper as a nicely crowded selection of starting pitching options has been undermined by equal doses of injury and ineffectiveness. Homer Bailey is back on the DL with a shoulder injury, this just a few short days after Edinson Volquez was optioned to Triple-A Louisville. There’s also the problem with what their rotation will actually amount to, even in better-case scenarios. Volquez, Bailey, Mike Leake, Bronson Arroyo and Travis Wood can all be useful starting pitchers in the major leagues, but if everything goes right, aren’t they all just potentially threes and fours in a big-league rotation?

Then there’s Aroldis Chapman, on so many short lists for best candidates for the National League Rookie of the Year in March. He’s also in Louisville at the moment, and is also on the DL for shoulder trouble. Pitching coach Bryan Price is being credited with fixing a flaw in Chapman’s delivery, but a third of the way through the season the most notable thing about Chapman’s season is that he put more than a third of all batters faced on base via walks or hit batsmen.

The lineup has its own issues. Scott Rolen is off to a slow start, and neither of the shortstops is hitting. Starting left fielder Jonny Gomes has been riding pine for the past week and a half, purportedly getting the benefit of plenty of hands-on instruction from his manager. Maybe that’s so, maybe it’s window dressing, but the simple fact is their starting left fielder has been benched for some combination of Fred Lewis and Chris Heisey.

So Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker haven’t been sitting on their hands, but the Reds should be thinking in terms of what other moves they can make to exploit their depth on the big-league roster as well as within a farm system that provides them with good alternatives. The danger of doing nothing is that they might wind up watching as the Cardinals get out too far ahead, and waiting until July to seriously reconsider their roster could only add to the challenge.

• 1. Stop messing around with Paul Janish as the starting shortstop. Last year, Janish hit .260/.338/.385 in sporadic playing time. Not shabby for a shortstop, right? Sadly, his minor-league track record suggests that isn’t what he’d do as an everyday player, and both PECOTA and ZiPS expected an OPS around .660. That’s a lot better than his extra-weak .500, but do you really want to wait on a guy who’s expected offensive output is still bad? Happily for the Reds, there’s an in-house upgrade in prospect Zack Cozart, ranked eighth among all Reds prospects before the season by Baseball America. Like Janish, Cozart gets good marks for his fielding, but also happens to bring some power to the plate, having delivered at a .282/.327/.436 clip for Louisville already, while belting 16 doubles and four homers. Power plays well in the Gap, which suggests the payoff of playing the better batter. It beats punting a lineup slot in the DH-less league by playing Janish. Just because Janish had to wait his turn to start doesn’t mean he deserves it indefinitely; these might be the Reds, but this ain’t the Politburo.
• 2. Stick with Lewis and Heisey in left, but not in a straight platoon -- if Heisey wins the job, let him. Gomes was a nice patch while he lasted and a nifty pickup off the scrap heap, but his comeback from his disappointment with the Rays was overwhelmingly a product of the league’s best home-run park after Coors Field, his defense is ghastly, and last year he hit just .257/.301/.407 vs. right-handers. The Reds don’t need a platoon DH. If they want to swap in some additional lefty power to split time with Heisey, they can always call Juan Francisco back up.
• 3. Shop a catcher, either catcher. Between Ramon Hernandez’s impending free agency after 2011 or the marketability of Ryan Hanigan’s cheap three-year, $4 million deal that still leaves him a year shy of free agency, the Reds have receivers who can interest needy shoppers at any price point. Before the year’s out, one of them is going to be in danger of losing his job to top prospect Devin Mesoraco (.296/.383/.480 at Louisville), and if the Giants had the courage to contend with a rookie catcher last year, why not the Reds this year? Admittedly, most buyers understand that Hernandez’s power will probably stay in the Gap’s cozy confines, but this is catcher we’re talking about. The Giants are the obvious match (for Hernandez in particular) in the wake of Buster Posey’s tragedy, of course, but that doesn’t make them Jocketty’s mark. Because the real objective should be …
• 4. Deal from depth to get what they need: an ace starter. Admittedly, these are few and far between, but face it, if you want to go up against the Phillies or Giants in a short series, do you want to repeat last year's rollover? Bailey is now in his fifth year on or around the big-league team, and he still hasn’t broken through. Volquez? His big year was 2008, and whether you feel he was rushed back from rehab or not, it doesn’t look like he’s about to get back to that form any time soon. Arroyo is just a variation on a theme the team already listened to with Aaron Harang -- a nice mid-rotation guy, but just that.The question is who they might be able to get. Chasing after Chad Billingsley -- and definitely not homer-prone Ted Lilly -- to exploit the Dodgers’ cash crunch might make sense, because the $35 million he’s due from 2012-2014 might look like a bargain relative to market pricing. Waiting on the White Sox to fall out or stay in the AL Central race makes sense if you rate Edwin Jackson's upside as highly as so many of his former employers have in the past. John Danks would be the better target, but he won’t come loose easily. If you want to live dangerously, pick up the phone and ask how badly the Mets would like to take some of Johan Santana’s salary off their overhead.
  
  However, assuming recent news about his shoulder is a passing concern, the Reds’ best available target could be Francisco Liriano of the Twins. Given that the Twins need a little bit of everything, perhaps offering Janish (because they don’t have a shortstop who can play shortstop), Hanigan (because he’s cheap and Joe Mauer has got to come out from behind the plate), one of the kid starters, and something talented from the low minors -- and not on the 40-man -- gets this done. If the Twins don’t bite on that, turn the conversation to Todd Frazier, and make it happen.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The Cincinnati Reds have one of the deepest starting rotations in the National League -- seven-deep, in fact -- and of the seven, six of them are ages 23-27.

Edinson Volquez has shown flashes of being a potential No. 1 starter; Johnny Cueto already is a solid No. 2; Bronson Arroyo just wins 15 games and pitches 200 innings every year; Travis Wood has pinpoint control; Homer Bailey has the raw stuff to potentially become a No. 1; and Mike Leake and Sam LeCure are solid back-of-the-rotation arms. With one of baseball's best defensive teams behind this young, strong rotation, the Reds are built to be a World Series-contending team over the next several seasons.

Rotation depth should give them an advantage over the 162-game schedule. But the question remains: Can they compete in the playoffs? While the Phillies, Giants, Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, Braves and Cardinals all have proven No. 1 starters, the Reds are hoping that either Volquez, Cueto or Bailey will develop into one. The hope is that they can compete with the likes of Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Josh Johnson come October in Games 1 and 7 of important playoff matchups. The potential is there.

Here is a breakdown of their starting rotation:

Volquez, 27, has an overpowering fastball at times (90-96 mph) with an excellent changeup, an effective curveball and a hard slider. He has quick arm speed out front with whip-like action. When he’s healthy, he’s shown he can be a strike thrower who goes right at hitters and pounds the zone. In fact, if you want to take a snapshot of his best pitching, it was the first half of 2008, when he went 12-3 with a 2.29 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.24. Some even nicknamed him "Mini-Pedro" for that short period of success. Since then, he’s had Tommy John surgery and a positive test for PEDs. The reality is he can’t control the baseball like he used to. In his past start, he walked five of the first 12 batters he faced. His WHIP is 1.6, he’s averaging seven walks per nine innings, and leads the league in walks with 33. Although he has the potential to be a No. 1, he looks more like a No. 3 starter, and the Reds are hoping the command and control come back sooner rather than later. The raw stuff is top-of-the-rotation talent.

Former Reds scout Johnny Almaraz recruited Cueto as an international signee . Cueto, 24, has a smaller frame with a powerful fastball in the 90-95 mph range. He’s aggressive and commands the fastball well. This has allowed him to realize getting outs on the ground can be as effective as strikeouts. He has a hard, tight slider that is deceptive enough to get him punch-outs out of the zone against even some of the league's better hitters. He has a plus changeup at times, and the cutter is also effective, especially against left-handed hitters. The Reds signed Cueto to a four-year, $27 million deal before spring training. Imagine the alarm when his shoulder started barking. But thanks to one of the best medical teams in baseball, led by Dr. Timothy Kremchek, they quickly put him on a strengthening program that has him healthy again and back on track to being a solid No. 2 starter.

Arroyo, 34, is one of the best No. 3 starters in baseball. He has won at least 15 games three years in a row and has pitched at least 200 innings every season since 2005. He’ll throw between 85-90 mph, with a big, slow curveball, an average slider with tilt, and an effective cutter. He varies speeds, plains, zones and really knows how to pitch. He’ll try to get you to chase, and he’ll try to fool you. He wins. He pitches innings. He has tremendous make-up and character and is the leader of this rotation. He is a straight shooter and a rock 'n' roller, with the hairdo, swagger and charm. Every fifth day the Reds can count on him keeping them in the game with a chance to win.

Wood, 24, is the lone lefty in the rotation. He is a competitor and a good athlete. His sinking fastball is mostly 88-91 mph with pinpoint control. He has an excellent changeup, a quality cutter, and his breaking balls -- a slider and a curveball -- have developed enough to be effective. His balls have late movement, and he keeps them out of the middle of the plate. He spent time in the offseason with Cliff Lee, working out and talking about pitching. Both Arroyo and catcher Ryan Hanigan rave about Wood and his ability to get outs with less stuff. Wood is a solid lefty who will always be referred to as a real estate pitcher, meaning location, location, location ... and late life.

Bailey, 25, has the highest ceiling of any of the Reds' starting pitchers. Like Cueto, Wood and Lecure, he was cross-checked and recommended by former Reds scout Jimmy Gonzales, who felt strongly Bailey would be a 15-18 game winner someday. Bailey had some minor injuries early in his career and used to be just a thrower. His stubbornness and inability to make adjustments due to immaturity frustrated the Reds' brass for years. However, last September, the maturity came, the light bulb went on, and Bailey is now ready to take off. His fastball is 90-96 mph with hard, arm-side sink. The pitch is so overpowering that at times he can throw it down the middle of the plate, tell the hitter it’s coming, and they still can’t catch up. When he was drafted, he had a big curveball that was his primary breaking pitch, but now his first breaking ball is a tight slider or cutter that is a lot more effective. His secondary offspeed pitch has improved dramatically; everything moves. He is a fierce competitor who is really coming into his own as he has learned how to pitch.

Leake, 23, the right-hander out of Arizona State, became the first player in a decade in the past season to make the major leagues without spending time in the minors. He rewarded the Reds in the first half by going 6-1 with a 3.53 ERA in 17 starts with a WHIP of 1.3 and was a ground-ball machine. Leake is not overpowering, but he used both sides of the plate and kept the ball down. The second half, however, was a different story once the innings racked up. Leake is now throwing out of the bullpen, but if there is an injury, he’ll be ready to step back into the rotation. At the back end of the rotation, he is certainly capable of winning 10-12 games.

LeCure, 27, went to school at the University of Texas and was academically ineligible to pitch in 2005. That didn’t stop the Reds from evaluating and drafting him after watching his bullpen sessions. His fastball can get up to 88-91 mph, and he commands his slider and changeup. LeCure is a tough kid with exceptional make-up, an over-achiever who can win at the back end of any rotation. He provides more valuable depth for the Reds.

The bottom line is that this is a really talented and deep rotation. If Volquez, Cueto and/or Bailey arrive at their fullest potential, the Reds may be celebrating at the White House and not just at Fountain Square in the Queen City or at one of Jeff Ruby’s famous downtown restaurants.

Thanks for reading, and I appreciate your comments, recommendations and retweets. You can follow me on Twitter: @JimBowdenESPNxm.

Here are the top five reasons why you just can't miss Wednesday's awesome Baseball Today podcast with myself and Keith Law, giants in every sense of the word:

1. We look back at the pitcher's duel in South Florida, and wonder if the Marlins are even better than we thought.

2. Is this finally the year Reds right-hander Homer Bailey puts it all together? Keith says it wouldn't be such a surprise, and recalls Bailey's draft day value. Plus, who is Bailey's veteran comp?

3. Is it better to be a tall pitcher than a short one? Speaking as two tall baseball analysts, we've got the inside scoop!

4. Hmmm, Rafael Soriano needs an MRI on his elbow ... oh to be a fly on the wall when Brian Cashman discusses his feelings on the matter.

5. We finally get to an interesting email about lineup construction, the myths, the truths and the Ryan Theriots.

Plus: How Albert Pujols fell through the cracks, what should be done with struggling Aroldis Chapman and a comprehensive look at what's on tap for Wednesday's action, all on Baseball Today!

And now a look through the Senior Circuit injury wire.

Chris Coghlan and Mike Stanton, Marlins: Coghlan is suffering from right shoulder tendinitis but is expected to start on Opening Day and will monitor his throwing carefully. Stanton missed much of spring with a quadriceps strain but returned last Friday and hit two home runs.

Mets: Where to begin? Jason Bay could now begin on the DL with a rib-cage discomfort, after missing two games recently with back stiffness. The Mets appear committed to Carlos Beltran as their Opening Day right fielder. He played a minor league game over the weekend and went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts and had a double and triple hit over his head. Backup catcher Ronny Paulino could be headed to the DL with stomach issues. Johan Santana hopes to pitch sometime this season.

Chase Utley, Phillies: You've been following this one. Nobody knows when he'll be ready ... if it all, although he said Monday a goal is to return before the All-Star break.

Brad Lidge, Phillies: Lidge will undergo an MRI today to see if there is structural damage in his shoulder. He'll start on the DL, with Ryan Madson taking over as closer.

Placido Polanco, Phillies: He missed two weeks with a hyperextended elbow but is back and apparently OK.

Adam LaRoche, Nationals: He has a slight tear in his rotator cuff but will rehab and play through it.

Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey, Reds: Cueto has shoulder inflammation and Bailey has shoulder impingement and both begin the season on the DL (along with backup outfielder Fred Lewis, who has a strained oblique). Cueto has resumed playing catch and Bailey is expected to miss two starts. Mike Leake and Sam LeCure join the rotation, although the Reds don't need a fifth starter the first turn through the rotation.

Clint Barmes and Jason Castro, Astros: Castro is out for the season after tearing up his knee (and now catcher J.R. Towles has a balky back). Barmes is out 4-6 weeks and the Astros just acquired Joe Inglett to help with infield depth.

Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, Brewers:: Marcum missed a start with a stiff right shoulder but threw four pain-free innings on Monday. Greinke just started playing catch after suffering a fractured rib playing basketball. A late April return appears to be the goal.

Corey Hart, Brewers: Hart is aiming for a mid-April return from a strained rib-cage muscle. The Brewers just acquired Nyjer Morgan for outfield depth.

Chris Snyder, Pirates: The catcher's bad back will likely land him on the DL, leaving the Pirates with Ryan Doumit and Jason Jaramillo behind the plate.

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: He's out for the season following Tommy John surgery, with Kyle McClellan taking his spot in the rotation.

J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks: A stiff back has limited Putz in Cactus League action, but he's still hoping to be Arizona's closer come Opening Day.

Ian Stewart, Rockies: He's missed time with a right knee sprain and left Monday's game with a tight hamstring, but said he isn't concerned. The Rockies traded for Josh Fields as insurance and have Ty Wigginton and Jose Lopez on the roster.

Jon Garland, Casey Blake and Dioner Navarro, Dodgers: Garland suffered a strained oblique early in spring training and just getting back to building up his arm strength. He'll need a couple weeks. Blake has back inflammation and will begin the season on the DL. Jamey Carroll is around to fill in (or Juan Uribe will shift to third with Carroll playing second). Backup catcher Navarro is also expected to start on the DL with a strained oblique.

Mat Latos, Padres: Latos has bursitis in his right shoulder and heads to the DL. Keep tabs on this one as the Padres will undoubtedly be cautious with the young ace.

Brian Wilson and Cody Ross, Giants: Wilson has a strained oblique and likely to begin on the DL, but could be activated as soon as April 5. Bruce Bochy hasn't announced his backup closer plans. Playoff hero Ross is on the DL with a calf strain and could miss three weeks. Nate Schierholtz could take his place or rookie Brandon Belt could play first base with Aubrey Huff moving to the outfield.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

In 2010, the NL Central finished the season with only six of the top 40 starting pitchers based on ERA. Three of those pitchers belonged to one team, the St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia.) The other three were Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez (Houston Astros) and Johnny Cueto (Reds). This means the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers were without a starter in the top 40 ERA’s in the league by the end of 2010. The potential was there, but it was never realized. Fast forward to 2011 …

The Brewers made the first move this offseason when they picked up Zack Greinke in a trade with the Royals. They gave up little for what will be their staff ace. FanGraphs projects Greinke’s 2011 stats to be about 14-15 wins and an ERA in the mid 3.00’s. The Brew Crew did not stop there, acquiring Shawn Marcum, who cobbled together a nice 2010 for Toronto in the tough AL East after missing all of 2009. These two additions, along with future Cy Young candidate Yovani Gallardo make the Brewers a contender for the NL Central crown in 2011.

The Cubs’ offseason answer to their pitching staff questions came in a trade with Tampa Bay. Matt Garza was acquired in exchange for a slew of prospects. While the big question is how Garza will fair in Wrigley, it goes without saying he is an upgrade, and makes a fine middle-of-the-rotation addition. FanGraphs projects something like 11 wins and a high 3.00 to low 4.00 ERA. He gives the Cubs a very solid top three along with Ryan Dempster and a “newly cured” Carlos Zambrano. What if Randy Wells can get his 2009 form back? Any Cubs fan can tell you that 2010’s failure came from a lack of offense. If this staff gets even a hint of support, the NL Central is well within reach.

We can’t discuss the Cubs without touching on the Cardinals. Year in and year out the Cardinals seem to have pitching, or at least starting pitching. Yes, Wainwright is gone for the 2011 season, and while this is a big blow, I don’t see it being the end of their 2011 season. Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan are unbelievable at squeezing water from a stone. Duncan got production from Todd Wellemeyer for crying out loud. Every year the duo of La Russa and Duncan seems to pull a starting pitcher out of a hat. I am sure somebody will fall in place to pick up at least some of the wreckage left behind by Wainwright’s injury. They still have Carpenter and Garcia to lean on. Let’s also not forget the sinkerball pitcher, Jake Westbrook, who I am sure Duncan will turn into a Cy Young candidate before long. Oh yes, the Cardinals are still in the hunt … even when they lose their best pitcher.

The sneakiest staff might be Houston's. Rodriguez and Myers will once again anchor this staff. Don’t count out J.A. Happ, as he fit in nicely coming over from the Phillies in a trade last season. While I don’t see the Astros contending this year, mostly because of their offensive woes and bullpen, these three guys make for a nice base to a starting staff. Rodriguez and Myers were both in the top 40 ERA’s for starting pitchers last year, and Happ has the stuff to be included in that conversation someday, too.

Alongside these teams sit the Cincinnati Reds. Youth would be the operative word here. The potential in this starting rotation is enormous for 2011 and beyond. Yes, Bronson Arroyo is 33, but after that you have Edison Volquez (28), Cueto (25) , Homer Bailey (25) and a fifth starter in Travis Wood (24) or Mike Leake (23). There is also the tease that Cuban fireballer Aroldis Chapman (22) might one day become a starter. With the exception of Chapman and possibly Wood, all of these pitchers have seen significant success at the major league level in a starting role. The only thing keeping the Reds from a return to the playoffs is the fact that every team in the division upgraded with exception to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The NL Central has always had a few good pitchers sprinkled about its rosters. What’s new to the past decade is the depth of each team’s starting staff, not to mention the potential for more in the future. While the Astros, and more so the Pirates, have some ground to make up in this category, the remaining four teams are finding strength and depth from their starters.

Chet West writes for The View From the Bleachers blog, which is part of the SweetSpot network.

Today's links are mostly chocolate, with some of those little sprinkles on top ...

• Via Batter's Box, a lovely introduction to Alex Anthopolous.

• After reading this, I'm inspired to go to the nearest card shop and relive some fond memories.

• At some point soon, Baseball-Reference.com will add (some) Negro Leagues statistics, derived from research compiled by Scott Simkus and Gary Ashwill. This might be a good time to mention that the National Baseball Hall of Fame has now been keeping their own research under lock and key for three or four years now. Nice job, Hallers! You've been beaten to the publication punch by a couple of guys who did it just for the love of the thing.

• Look out, Homer Bailey: Tom Verducci's Effect has you in its sights.

• On Opening Day in 1914, the Boston Braves wore swastikas on the caps. Seriously. Thanks to some serious (baseball) detective work, Here's the whole story.

• Yeah, we never tire of complaining about the Hall of Fame. But Jason Whitlock is right: the Football Hall of Fame is a lot worse.

• Well, it's unanimous: the Rangers are going to win the American League West! And the Cardinals are a lock in the NL Central. Anyway, that's what it says here (bonus: finding out CHONE stands for, after the fact).

• Oh, if only the Johnny Damon of this winter could have jumped in a time machine and talked to the Johnny Damon of 2007.

• Dept. of Corrections, Part 1: In this post about the Mets' first-base candidates, I failed to mention Fernando Tatis (I have a lame excuse that I won't bore you with). But Tatis has indeed returned to the Mets, and ideally he'll platoon at first base with the winner of the Murphy/Jacobs Derby. My (provisional) apologies to Omar Minaya.

• Dept. of Corrections, Part 2: In this post about playing the All-Star Game in Cooperstown, I suggested that the Village couldn't handle the crowds. But of course that's preposterous. As Deputy Mayor Jeff Katz graciously reminds me, in 2007 Cooperstown accommodated 80,000 visitors for Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn's induction into the Hall.