SweetSpot: Ichiro Suzuki

SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I gathered for Monday’s Baseball Today podcast with our big top-10 lists of best teams and much more!

1. Seattle Mariners announcer Dave Sims talked about the Mariners, whether Ichiro will be in a Mariners uniform next season, Jesus Montero, cheering for the home team, the many young players on the horizon and ... hats.

2. Power Rankings day! Dave, Mark Simon and I each submitted our lists, with some similarities but alas, not all division leaders made it. And which NL team is best?

3. How do you pitch to Texas Rangers superstar Josh Hamilton? And how good are the Rangers? We discuss.

4. What has Detroit Tigers lefty Drew Smyly done that hadn’t been done ... ever?

5. We take a closer look at Monday’s schedule, from ESPN’s Cubs-Cardinals tilt to an important series for last season’s NL West champs!

So download and listen to Monday’s Baseball Today podcast and come right back with us Tuesday for me and Keith Law!

Welcome to Opening Day! Not the official Opening Day, mind you, but the fake one from Japan, where the Mariners and A’s will be playing two games in a stadium the Japanese lovingly call the Big Egg. It’s fake Opening Day, but the games are real, although for some reason the MLB Network is showing a spring training report on the Mets (Jonathon Niese just showed Al Leiter his grip for a changeup!) rather than a game that actually matters.

But it’s available on MLB.TV so I set the alarm for 6 a.m., turned on the computer and sat down to follow along.

First inning
Brandon McCarthy starts for the A’s. McCarthy set a record for most offseason publicity ever for a pitcher who won nine games for a third-place team from a small-market West Coast team. He appeared on the cover of ESPN The Magazine. He wrote a guest column for SI.com. He tweeted clever strings of 140 characters all winter and appeared at a sabermetrics conference during spring training.
McCarthy is a great story, a pitcher who used sabermetric analysis to become a better pitcher as he returned from injuries. (“I didn’t want to suck at baseball anymore," he said.) And he is funny on Twitter. And he married a model. So you have to like the guy. He’s facing Felix Hernandez, so there’s a good chance this game could be 0-0 through nine innings.

Chone Figgins makes the first out of the 2012 season. Let’s just leave it at that. He’s too easy of a punching bag and it’s 6 o'clock in the morning. But an out later, Ichiro reaches on an infield single. His infield hits dropped from 59 in to 2010 to 38 in 2011, so this is a good sign. Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure he’s the only No. 3 hitter in the majors for whom we’ll be breaking down the number of infield hits. The Seattle Mariners, everyone!

Second inning
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Felix Hernandez
AP Photo/Shizuo KambayashiFelix Hernandez pitched eight strong innings, giving up five hits and one earned run.
Jesus Montero steps to the plate wearing No. 63. I’m not sure this is a good sign. Has there ever been a great player to wear No. 63? Of course not! Apparently Montero wanted No. 21 but that belongs to Franklin Gutierrez. I suggest the Mariners trade Gutierrez. Montero bounces the first pitch to third base. If there’s something that will prevent Montero from reaching his potential as a hitter, it will be his over-aggressiveness at the plate. He drew just 36 walks in 463 plate appearances in Triple-A in 2011.

Mariners announcer Mike Blowers on catcher Miguel Olivo: “They’re going to give him a few more days off this year.”

Every Mariners fan everywhere: “God, we hope so.”

In the bottom of the inning, Yoenis Cespedes steps in for his first major league at-bat: Fastball inside, curveball for a called strike, a big 12-to-6 curve that he pulls off and a 58-foot sinker in the dirt that he misses by about 2 feet. Welcome to the big leagues.

Third inning
Michael Saunders singles to lead off the inning and steals second. Brendan Ryan grounds a curveball into the hole at shortstop, but Saunders unwisely dashes for third and is thrown out. Ryan is then caught stealing. Thank goodness the Mariners just spent five weeks in spring training working on fundamentals.

The A’s have a third baseman who wears glasses. What, are they so poor their players can’t even afford Lasik surgery?

Fourth inning
Dustin Ackley crushes a 1-1 fastball over the center-field fence. Our first run of the season! Ichiro follows with another infield single. He may hit .400 this year. The Mariners broadcast just mentioned Ichiro’s batting average on balls in play in 2010 compared to 2011 (.353 versus .295). I’m telling you, this sabermetric stuff just may catch on.

Oakland counters in the bottom of the inning as Cliff Pennington doubles to lead off and then Kurt Suzuki doubles with two outs, a liner just past the diving Mike Carp in left field. Minus-one on the defensive runs saved chart for Carp.

Fifth inning
Jemile Weeks strikes out looking, unhappy with both the two-strike pitch and third-strike calls and slams his bat down on the turf. The Japanese fans yelp in shock, as in Japan players wouldn’t dishonor the umpire with such a display.

Sixth inning
Figgins and Ichiro single but the rally dies when Justin Smoak and Montero fail to come through. Is this the right time to mention that the Mariners lost two exhibition games to Japanese teams by a combined score of 14-4 while getting outhit 25-13? Outside of Ackley’s homer, they haven’t hit the ball hard. Their other five hits include two infield hits and two ground balls up the middle.

Pennington singles to start the bottom of the frame and steals second, Oakland’s second steal of the game. A little thing to watch for Hernandez: He used to do an OK job of containing the running game, allowing an average of 16 steals per year from 2006 through 2010. In 2011, that shot up to 31 steals allowed, and it’s not all because of Olivo. Frankly, I think he stopped paying attention and I think most Mariners fans will agree that Felix’s concentration lagged at times last year. It’s not easy to pitch when you know giving up one run may lose you the game. Pennington moves to third on a long fly out but Hernandez works out of the jam with an infield popout (as Ryan makes the catch, the graphic shows that he led all major league shortstops with 17 runs saved) and Josh Reddick’s hard liner that goes right to Carp.

Seventh inning
McCarthy cruises through another easy inning. Cespedes pokes a 1-1 curveball over Saunders’ head in center field for a double, a good piece of hitting off a good low-and-away pitch from Hernandez. Considering how bad Cespedes looked earlier against off-speed stuff, a nice adjustment.

Bob Melvin then asks Brandon Allen to bunt. Allen’s last sacrifice bunt came in ... 2006. He pops it up. Bob Melvin, everyone! (Why not send up a pinch-hitter to bunt there?) Eric Sogard, the third baseman with the glasses, lines out to Hernandez and Weeks grounds out. Hernandez escapes another jam.

Eighth inning
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Ichiro Suzuk
AP Photo/Shizuo KambayashiIchiro Suzuki had four hits, including an RBI single in the 11th inning.
McCarthy comes out after just 82 pitches. He threw a nice game -- no walks, three strikeouts, really just the one belt-high fastball mistake that Ackley didn’t miss. Ryan Cook comes in, a guy acquired in the Trevor Cahill trade with Arizona, a rookie with a big fastball. 1-2-3. Eight Mariners in a row retired. Hernandez also retires the side in order in what is probably his last inning after 104 pitches.

Ninth inning
The Mariners have their 3-4-5 guys up. A’s closer Grant Balfour comes on. Advantage: Oakland. Sorry, I hate to be cynical after just eight innings of the first game of the season, but it’s been two years of games like this for Mariners fans. Hernandez has 27 wins over the past two seasons. In 17 of those wins, he allowed no runs or one run, so he has just 10 wins in games in which he allowed more than one run. Compare that to, say, Justin Verlander; he has 19 wins over the past two seasons in games in which he allowed two runs or more. Both pitchers had 23 starts in which they allowed zero runs or one -- Verlander won all 23.

The Mariners go down in order. Tom Wilhelmsen enters for the Mariners. So there’s a chance they could lose without their best reliever entering the game. Because, you know, you have to save your closer for when you have a lead, even if it means he doesn’t get into a tie game in the ninth inning. What, too early in the season to be complaining about bullpen usage? Wilhelmsen does the job, striking out Cespedes on a big breaker for the third out. Looks like the scouting reports are already out on him: He’s going to see a steady diet of off-speed stuff, that’s for sure.

10th inning
Bonus baseball! Side-arming lefty Brian Fuentes on for the A’s. He once pitched 55 innings and recorded 48 saves! Three up, three down. Fourteen in a row for A’s pitchers. Mariners tally of hard-hit balls for the game: one. Seattle Times columnist Larry Stone on Twitter: Mariners in midseason form.

Ackley bobbles a hard-hit one-hopper and throws it way. Collin Cowgill runs for Allen. With Sogard up, let’s see if the A’s bunt, hit-and-run or swing away. Sogard takes ball one, fouls off a pitch with Cowgill running. Hit-and-run backfires when Sogard swing through a 2-1 outside fastball. If you don’t run, that pitch is outside and the count is 3-1. Sogard flies out. Weeks strikes out looking again ... and gently places his bat and helmet down on the turf. Only 17 more Mariners-A’s games to go!

11th inning
After new Oakland pitcher Andrew Carignan fires three fastballs to Ryan, Blowers makes an astute comment: “Carignan looks like he’s pretty proud of his fastball.” He throws and Ryan pounces on it for a leadoff double. Figgins bunts him over. Ackley lines a single -- off another fastball -- into center for the go-ahead run. Melvin brings in lefty Jerry Blevins. Not sure why he didn’t bring in Blevins to face Ackley. Maybe he figured Carignan had the better shot at a strikeout. Ackley steals second and Ichiro follows with a soft liner to center to score Ackley, his fourth hit of the game. I’m telling you ... Ichiro is back! (Wait, it’s only one game? I don’t care. We have to get excited about something. The Mariners just had a two-run outburst.)

Brandon League is on for the save. I told you Eric Wedge should have waited to bring in League until the Mariners got the lead. Pennington flies out. Coco Crisp strikes out looking on a 3-2 fastball. Seth Smith nearly kills League with a line drive that somehow goes between League’s glove and face. A’s still alive. The other Suzuki digs in. League puts him away with a nasty two-strike splitter.

And the first game of 2,430 is in the books. In the end, the big key was the Mariners using just two relievers while the A’s lost once Melvin went to his fourth and fifth guys out of the bullpen. Give Wedge credit for using Wilhelmsen for 25 pitches and two innings while Melvin removed Balfour after 11 pitches and Fuentes after 12. Why managers remove relievers after just one inning when their pitch count is still so low is something I still don’t understand. It’s rote managing without thinking critically about the situation.

Mariners fans are happy. The fans in Japan are happy, as their national hero gets four hits in his homecoming. And we should all be happy: Baseball is back.

What's next for Pablo Sandoval?

March, 1, 2012
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Pablo Sandoval's hot/cold zones from each side of the plate.
Click here to create your own Sandoval heat maps

Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is the heir apparent to Vladimir Guerrero and Ichiro Suzuki as the best bad-ball hitter in baseball. (Or maybe it's Salvador Perez.)

Sandoval’s bad-ball success was a huge key to his final 2011 numbers. He finished with a .328 batting average and 11 home runs in at-bats that ended with a pitch judged to be out of the strike zone by baseball’s Pitch F/X system.

Sandoval’s batting average ranked second-best in the majors and his homer total led the majors. It was a huge jump from his 2010 production, as noted in the chart on the right. Sandoval had the same number of hits against out-of-zone pitches in 2011 as he did in 2010. But he made 58 fewer outs.

At the top of this piece are heat maps, which show Sandoval’s bad-ball success from both the left and right sides.

See that big red patch off the outside corner in the image on the left? That’s a valuable area to Sandoval. It was worth 32 hits to him in 2011.

The one issue for Sandoval last season, one in which his defense improved significantly as well, was that he only played in 117 games. If he can maintain this kind of production for a full season, he could be an MVP candidate at year’s end.

What’s next for Sandoval in 2012? You tell us. Share your thoughts in the comments section.

What's next for Ichiro Suzuki?

February, 10, 2012
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video For the next two weeks, "Baseball Tonight" (airing at 3:30 p.m. ET) will take a closer look at players in the spotlight for 2012 and ask the question "What's next?" for that player. Share your thoughts in the comments section and join the discussion.

There was a time in which Ichiro Suzuki could hit any pitch thrown anywhere, and that ability was part of the key to his streak of 10 straight seasons with 200 or more hits.

That run ended last season, as did his ability to hit pitches that were thrown out of the strike zone. Suzuki totaled 135 out-of-strike-zone hits in 2009 and 2010, but just 44 in 2011.

Thanks to the wonders of Pitch F/X technology, which features cameras in every ballpark tracking pitch location, we can estimate his performance by pitch location.

The chart on the right and the heat maps below do that.

It’s an aspect of his game that will be worth watching this season to see if Ichiro can regain the form that made him one of baseball’s most dangerous hitters.
Left: Ichiro Suzuki versus out-of-strike zone pitches in 2009 (.323 BA, 70 H)
Right: Ichiro versus out of zone pitches in 2011 (.196 BA, 44 H)
Click here to create your own Ichiro heat maps


How will Ichiro do in 2012? Discuss below!
Ichiro Suzuki has started 1,733 games during his Mariners career, and all but 13 of those starts have come as the leadoff hitter.

SportsNation

Over/under prediction: .300 batting average for Ichiro

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However, following the worst season of his career, manager Eric Wedge said Thursday that he's considering moving Ichiro out of the leadoff spot.

"It's as much to do with his teammates as it has to do with him with regard to the collective nine that we're putting down on paper," Wedge said. "I haven't made any firm decisions. I made it very clear over the winter I was thinking about it. I'm even further down the road to where I'm leaning in that direction to have [Suzuki] hit somewhere else."

Of course, what it really has to do with is the fact that Ichiro hit .272 in 2011 with a .310 on-base percentage, 40 points below his previous career-low. Mariners leadoff hitters (Ichiro played 161 games) ranked 25th in the majors in OBP and 28th in OPS. They ranked last in runs scored.

So today's over/under: What will Ichiro hit in 2012? Now 38, does Ichiro have a rebound season in him? His walk and strikeout rates remained close to his career norms, but the big issue was a .295 average on balls in play, well below his career mark of .351. His line-drive percentage was only 1 percent less than his career average, but his rate of infield hits was down nearly 3 percent. He definitely appeared to have lost a step but it's also possible that he was just hitting into a lot of bad luck.

What do you think? I'll set the over/under at an even .300, 28 points higher than he hit in 2011 but 15 points less than his 2010 mark.

The most talented team of all time

December, 15, 2011
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What does that question even mean, "The most talented team of all time?"

Does it simply mean the best team? The 2001 Seattle Mariners won 116 games, a total matched only by the 1906 Chicago Cubs. Certainly, that Mariners club had a lot of talent -- Ichiro Suzuki hit .350 and Bret Boone had a monster season and Edgar Martinez got on base and John Olerud was really good and the pitching staff was underrated although not exactly filled with Cy Young winners. Still, I don't think many fans would say that was the most talented club ever assembled, especially since Ichiro is the only likely Hall of Famer.

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Ichiro
Joe Nicholson/US PresswireIchiro Suzuki hit .350 for the 2001 Mariners, who won 116 games.
The 1955 Cleveland Indians had more players on their roster who appeared in an All-Star game at some point in their career than any other team, with 28. Was that the most talented team? It was a good club, won 93 games and finished in second place, and 28 All-Stars is certainly a lot. But considering there were only eight teams per league back then and that from 1959 to 1962 two All-Star games were played each season, a lot of players from that era were "All-Stars." Plus, some of the players were at the end of their careers (Ralph Kiner, Bob Feller) or just beginning (Rocky Colavito played five games).

Or maybe the definition of talent is different. Guys like Martinez and Olerud certainly got the most out of their abilities, as neither were what you would call a five-tool player. But the 1974 San Francisco Giants, for example, featured an outfield of Gary Matthews, Garry Maddox and Bobby Bonds, three athletic players who could hit, run and field. Dave Kingman was on that team, a guy who hit the ball as far as anybody in the game's history. Shortstop Chris Speier was a 24-year-old All-Star. Steve Ontiveros, a 22-year-old rookie third baseman, showed promise by hitting .265 with more walks than strikeouts. On the pitching staff, John D'Acquisto was one of the hardest throwers in the league. Ed Halicki was a 6-foot-7 right-hander with a blazing fastball. It was a talented team. It also lost 90 games.

Maybe the 1975-76 Reds were the most talented team ever assembled: Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, Tony Perez, Dave Concepcion, Ken Griffey Sr., George Foster, Cesar Geronimo. The '76 team led the National League in home runs, batting average, stolen bases, doubles, triples, walks and -- of course -- runs. Bench, Morgan, Concepcion and Geronimo all won Gold Gloves. But the pitching staff didn't compare: Don Gullett threw hard when he first came up, but relied on a forkball by the mid-70s; Gary Nolan had been a 19-year-old phenom in 1967, but was a finesse guy with great control after years of shoulder problems. Closer Rawly Eastwick threw hard, but the staff as a whole didn't -- in fact, the '75 team ranked last in the NL in strikeouts.

Anyway, just some random thoughts for a slow Thursday afternoon. What do you think is the best way to approach this topic? Got suggestions for the most talented team ever? Discuss below and we can address the topic in the future.
It's not in Nolan Ryan's nature to give in.

Throw a 3-2 fastball down the middle of the plate? No way. Let up on his fastball -- just a little -- to throw a few more strikes? Are you kidding? He was not going to give in to a hitter. Ever. It's why he walked more batters than any pitcher in the history of the game, as many as 204 in a season.

Surrender to the ravages of time? No way. Keep firing fastballs, riding the exercise bike, lifting weights, staying strong ... and lead the National League in ERA at age 40, throw a no-hitter at 43, another at 44 and pitch until you're 46.

SportsNation

Which team do you think will win the bidding rights to Yu Darvish?

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When Rangers manager Ron Washington admitted to cocaine use? Stand by the guy you believe in, not giving in to the pressure to fire him.

And this is why the Texas Rangers will win the right to negotiate with Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish.

The Los Angeles Angels have signed Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. The Rangers have a countermove to make. It's Nolan Ryan, after all. He's not going to let the Angels dig in and get that final pitch down the middle.

Now, of course, there's no guarantee the Rangers will get Darvish. The bidding process -- which ends Wednesday night at 5 p.m. ET -- allows teams to submit bids to negotiate with Darvish. The highest bidder then has 30 days to sign him. When the Red Sox won the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka after the 2006 season, they paid $51.1 million to win the bid and then signed Matsuzaka to a six-year, $52 million contract. The same winter, the Yankees paid $26 million to negotiate with Kei Igawa.

Estimates to win the rights to the 25-year-old Darvish have ranged from $30 million to $70 million, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo. The performances of Matsuzaka (mediocre, nibbled too much, couldn't go deep into games) and Igawa (horrible) will perhaps make some teams hesitant to pay a small fortune just to negotiate with a player who may have a preference to sign with a West Coast team -- if he signs at all. There is no guarantee that will even happen, as Darvish apparently doesn't have a burning desire to prove himself in America like Hideki Matsui or Ichiro Suzuki did. Darvish is already the highest-paid player in Japan.

Those who have seen Darvish say he can be a No. 1 pitcher over here. Mets manager Terry Collins, who managed against Darvish in Japan, raved about him at the winter meetings. Davey Johnson has also managed against him and called him a "big, strong hard-thrower. Throws a lot like Americans. ... That guy is going to be expensive," he said at the winter meetings.

In his final two years in Japan, Matsuzaka's numbers read 401.1 innings, 310 hits, 83 walks and 426 strikeouts. If anything, Darvish has been even more dominant; in the past two seasons, he's pitched 434 innings with 314 hits, 83 walks and 498 strikeouts. But Matsuzaka's fastball never seemed to have the same life that he displayed in the 2006 World Baseball Classic, and he often appeared afraid to challenge hitters over here, leading to high walk rates and inconsistent performance.

If there is a concern about Darvish, it's that he's pitched a lot of innings at a young age. He turned 25 in August but has already compiled four seasons of 200-plus innings in Japan, the first coming when he was 20. Former Royals manager Trey Hillman, who managed Darvish in Japan, says Darvish would be able to handle the pressure of coming to America better than Matsuzaka. "He's a totally different person," Hillman told USA Today's Paul White. "He gets it, and it doesn't faze him in the least."

That circles us back to the Rangers. They've lost Wilson, their best starter the past two seasons, to their division rival. The signing of Joe Nathan likely prompts a move of Neftali Feliz to the rotation -- giving the club five starters in Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando and Feliz, with Scott Feldman also hanging around. It's a good rotation. Solid.

But Nolan Ryan wants more than solid. The Rangers came within a strike of winning the World Series in 2011, even though their starters pitched into the seventh inning just four times in 17 postseason games. He needs a No. 1. They can sign Darvish and move Ogando back to the bullpen, where he profiles as a dominant setup man to Nathan.

Maybe Ryan will fool us. Maybe he and general manager Jon Daniels are happy with their current rotation. Maybe the Rangers really won't spend any big money this offseason, letting Wilson go and passing on Prince Fielder, whose left-handed bat profiles perfectly in the middle of the righty-heavy Rangers lineup.

Maybe. But that's not the way Nolan Ryan usually pitches.

AL West: Three fixes for each team

December, 4, 2011
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Now in its last year of existence, baseball’s short stack will get rounded out to five teams when the Astros enter the American League in 2013. But in the meantime, it’s another four-way wrestling match. However, it’s also a starkly segregated division. On one side, you’ve got the defending pennant-winning Rangers (twice over) and their chief rivals, the Angels. On the other side, the Athletics have won 74-76 games in four of the last five years, while the Mariners have been stuck in the 60s for wins in three of the last four.

Texas Rangers

1. Rotation: Add a veteran? Or re-sign C.J. Wilson?

It isn’t that what the Rangers have right now isn’t good -- most teams would love to have a young quartet as talented as Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison lined up with Colby Lewis. They could probably win the division with that. But is any one of them that stopper you expect to beat a playoff team with? Holland or Feliz might grow into it, or Ogando, but do the Rangers want to count on the Madduxes and the talent, or will they hedge their bets by bringing Wilson back or going after someone like Roy Oswalt?

Likely solution: If they don’t bring Wilson back or win the bidding on a high-profile vet with playoff experience like Oswalt, they’ll opt out and not buy a veteran guaranteed rotation slot just for the sake of it. It’ll be either a significant upgrade or some retread for organizational depth, with nothing in between.

2. First base -- Settle or shop?

Last season, it might have seemed like they did quite nicely without having an everyday answer, rotating Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli and Michael Young through the slot. However, Young isn’t much of a first baseman, Moreland failed to develop at the plate and Napoli spends a good chunk of his time catching. Rangers first basemen rated a whopping 12th in the American League in OPS, beating out only the A’s grab bag of prospects and the Rays rentals. While they’re not likely to get in on Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, is there anyone else worth chasing?

Likely solution: Unless the Rangers want to revisit last winter’s drama of shopping Michael Young, it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll end up spending serious money at first base. Seeing if Moreland develops at age 26 while they settle for good defenders in center wouldn’t be the end of the world, but this is the team that might get the biggest benefit from sneaking in on Carlos Pena.

3. Center field -- Settle or shop?

The Rangers will need to sort out whether or not they want to add someone new to the mix. Josh Hamilton made only a month’s worth of starts in the middle pasture, and the Rangers spent much of the season with Endy Chavez and Gary Gentry batting ninth and splitting time in center while Julio Borbon’s season was lost to injuries. Will they settle for Gentry and Borbon in 2012, and take their blend of defense and OBP? The market isn’t exactly rich in alternatives.

Likely solution: Here, they can let it ride or go cheap on another defensive specialist, say, Rick Ankiel, with the hope that he rebounds in the Ballpark’s friendly confines. There’s not a lot of point in overpaying the likes of Coco Crisp to be just slightly better.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The biggest issue was finding a solution to the Jeff Mathis fetish, but they’ve addressed that with their pickup of Chris Iannetta. Even if Iannetta’s .707 OPS outside of Coors Field might be a splash of cold water for folks expecting the second coming of Mike Piazza, he’s still a bigger slice of that pie at the plate than Mathis will ever be.

1. A premium bat.

You’d think that with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Carlos Beltran on the market this would be easy, but the Angels are stacked with bodies (if not bats) at the corners. Figuring where to go for a premium hitter is the real trick, because the Angels have stuck themselves with so many ex-famous people, and that’s without getting into what they need to do with Mark Trumbo if Kendrys Morales’ comeback works out. The rumors of interest in the Mets’ David Wright to play third base makes some sense as a deal from depth, but acquiring Wright for Peter Bourjos -- which is really only a good idea if they know they can work out an extension with Wright -- wouldn’t erase their overlapping issues at first base, DH and the outfield corners. Aramis Ramirez is notionally the same sort of fix, except his play at third base leaves a lot to be desired; it wouldn’t be long before he wound up playing a lot of DH or first base.

Likely solution: It won’t be easy to work something out, but third base is a good place to go. But they can’t settle for getting one year of Wright before free agency for five of Bourjos and call it a day. Ideally, Jerry Dipoto needs to swap out one of the aging stiffs and bring in a real thumper, no easy feat. If he manages it, he might automatically win the label for Hot Stove MVP. If he also gets Morales back and bopping in 2012, the offense will be better still.

2. Starting pitcher (Joel Pineiro, free agent, plus Tyler Chatwood was dealt)

Even if Garrett Richards is almost ready and regardless of whether or not you want to believe Jerome Williams is an answer, they’re best left to fight it out for the last slot. Because of the mess on offense, one way to compensate would be to add a premium starter to help keep more games in reach. Unfortunately, the market isn’t stocked with quality options, but chasing after C.J. Wilson is an obvious avenue to pursue, giving the rotation a quality lefty to balance their reliance on Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana up front.

Likely solution: Signing Wilson would be the easy solution. They hold 2013 options on Haren and Santana, but beyond that, it’s Weaver and nobody in terms of commitments. Signing Wilson would address that while providing balance.

3. Making room for Mike Trout.

The ex-famous people problem is the real issue here. Torii Hunter will be turning 32 next summer; he isn’t going to get any better. Trumbo’s just the new Dave Kingman if he builds on his rookie season. Bobby Abreu’s power is a distant memory, and Vernon Wells’ dead-cat bounce in 2011 only went so high. These are the guys in Trout’s way to everyday play, not Bourjos.

Likely solution: It’s easy to say these things will sort themselves out, but by July, it’s doubtful that Trout will be any more ready than he already is. Eating the $63 million it’ll cost to employ Wells the next three years might be more affordable because Trout’s under contractual control for the next six years.

Oakland Athletics

1. Bodies to play in the outfield. (David DeJesus signed with the Cubs, and Coco Crisp and Josh Willingham are free agents.)

If you’re an outfielder, the A’s need you, because all three regulars are outbound. Ryan Sweeney might get to man one corner, and you might hope that Jermaine Mitchell mounts a bid on the job in center. But the A’s really need to sign an outfielder or two, ideally one who can play center. Re-signing Crisp as a placeholder seems to be getting a lot of consideration, which would be a return to the lamentable legacy of Willie Wilson serving time in this outfield in the ’90s, and cause for joy for nobody. After a .960 OPS between Double- and Triple-A, Mitchell’s interesting as an athletic, late-developing farmhand, but he’ll be 27 next year. There’s also Michael Taylor, once considered one of the top prospects in baseball, and currently more of a source of frustration after two mediocre seasons at Sacramento.

Likely solution: The only likelihood is that the fixes will be cheap. Whether it’s a matter of absorbing the tail end of other people’s bad-news deals if they’re footing the bill, renting hitters a year removed from free agency like DeJesus and Willingham, or sifting through the bargain bin, get ready for a new temp crew.

2. Power: 12th in the AL and 24th in MLB in Isolated Power (ISO)

Even if they wind up with outfielders like the ones we’ve noted, it isn’t like Crisp or Mitchell or Sweeney provide any power, which the A’s will sorely need with Willingham’s departure. Between Brandon Allen, Chris Carter, Daric Barton and Kila Ka’aihue, they might have in-house answers for first base and DH, but a multitude of options is not the same thing as having answers.

Likely solution: Ditching Hideki Matsui has helped open room for the crowd of first base/DH options, and a full season from Scott Sizemore at third base should help, but don’t be surprised if the A’s spring for one slugger to man first, DH or one of the outfield corners. It might help them remain 12th in the league.

3. San Jose or bust.

This is really the most important issue for the franchise this and every winter until it’s resolved, but team owner Lewis Wolff is slowly wading through lawsuits by proxy and MLB’s indecision over territorial rights to Santa Clara County to complete a ponderously slow attempt to move south within the East Bay region. The mayor of San Jose asked for this to be fixed two years ago; he was politely ignored. The city’s now trying to sell land to Wolff for the express purpose of building a ballpark, but it’s unclear if he’ll be allowed to move his team to the city out of an exaggerated consideration for the Giants’ claim. If the A’s were generous in ceding rights to San Jose when the Giants were moving into their new digs (away from San Jose), the Giants have been selfish in subsequently asserting their claims.

Likely solution: There isn’t one. The A’s and their fans as well as the cities of San Jose and Oakland remain hostage to the original sin of Bud Selig and company for sloppily and generously granting the Giants these rights in the first place. It’s up to the industry to fix that error, but so far there’s been an abdication of authority from MLB in the face of noisy assertiveness from the Giants. The Giants are well within their rights and understandably acting out of self-interest -- either to try and force the A’s out of the market, or extort an ill-gotten payday -- but this needs fixing. With the CBA and Astros’ sale done, this should be the top item of business for the commissioner. Let’s see if he treats it that way.

Seattle Mariners

1. A middle-of-the order thumper. (.115 ISO, 28th in MLB)

You can blame playing in Safeco, but that goes only so far, as the Mariners’ .658 OPS on the road was only slightly better than their awful .623 OPS in home games. Much of the problem is self-inflicted -- they’re the team that values punchless shortstop Brendan Ryan for his virtues afield more highly than any other, after all. While the holdovers in the outfield almost all endured horrific 2011 seasons, a group that includes Ichiro Suzuki, Franklin Gutierrez, Trayvon Robinson, Mike Carp and Michael Saunders is capable of doing better. Which really leaves third base, DH and possibly first as the places where GM Jack Zduriencik might add an impact bat. This has fed into a lot of speculation over Zduriencik’s former Milwaukee connection to Prince Fielder.

Likely solution: Landing Fielder would be a major coup, but it would be a fairly extreme act of faith by Fielder that Zduriencik’s going to get this thing turned around during the life of his contract, assuming Seattle even has the money for that kind of offer. It’s more likely that the Mariners will have to settle. A right-handed bat would be great for their lineup’s balance, but Safeco is death on right-hander power, suggesting that someone like Aramis Ramirez wouldn’t be a good fit. Guys like Casey Blake and Ryan Ludwick are familiar to manager Eric Wedge from their days in Cleveland; they’re also not really answers. Moving Carp to DH and looking at J.D. Drew or Jason Kubel would be a little more interesting.

2. A veteran starter. (Traded Erik Bedard and Doug Fister away.)

This is really about making sure they get innings until a few more of the kids are ready for call-ups. Ideally, any veteran would also be someone they could flip at the deadline. Top prospects like Danny Hultzen and James Paxton might earn September call-ups, but the Mariners need someone to take the ball in the meantime. Because they have a great venue for pitchers and a strong defense to offer as inducements beyond cash, they should be able to find someone interested.

Likely outcome: They’ll get the inning guys like Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm and Jon Garland should be calling the Mariners rather than the other way around; finding somebody will be more a matter of finding someone willing to sign for what they’re willing to offer. It would be interesting to see if the M’s could induce Hiroki Kuroda to sign on rather than return to Japan now that the Dodgers are out of the picture.

3. Third base: Open.

Prospects Alex Liddi, Francisco Martinez and Vinnie Catricala are all a bit rough at the hot corner, and the Mariners probably have zero interest in giving Figgins another crack at the job after witnessing his .595 OPS in two seasons in Seattle. Kyle Seager might get the lion’s share of playing time by default if the Mariners don’t add a vet for temp duty. It won’t cost them the pennant.

Likely solution: Third base is an area of need for a lot of teams, and if the Mariners are willing to eat most of the $18 million they still owe Figgins, they’d almost certainly find an interested party. They shouldn’t waste the roster spot indefinitely if they’re not going to play him. A veteran placeholder like Blake might fit here on a one-year deal, assuming Zduriencik doesn’t conjure up a better solution with some wheeling and dealing.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Mariners CelebrateDan Levine/AFP/Getty ImagesA common picture from the 2001 Mariners season: Ichiro Suzuki and Mike Cameron celebrating.
"Two outs, so what?"
--Catchphrase for the 2001 Seattle Mariners


Every Mariners fan has his or her favorite game from 2001. After all, we watched nearly every one or followed online the ones we couldn’t see on TV or attend in person.

I have two. The Mariners had romped through the first half, going 63-24 and leading the division by 19 games. By fortuitous circumstance, Seattle hosted the All-Star Game that year and it had been a Mariners celebration, with eight players named to the roster, including starters Ichiro Suzuki, Bret Boone, John Olerud and Edgar Martinez. The American League won the game 4-1, with Freddy Garcia earning credit for the win and Kazuhiro Sasaki recording the save.

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Ichiro Suzuki
Jed Jacobsohn/Getty ImagesIchiro was one of eight Mariners All-Stars in 2001. The Mariners even hosted the game.
It would have been easy for the club to relax with such a big lead, but that’s not how the 2001 Mariners played baseball. In the first game following the All-Star break, they hosted the San Francisco Giants and Barry Bonds, then chasing Mark McGwire’s single-season home run record. Sure enough, Bonds launched a long home run in the first inning and the Giants held a 3-2 lead entering the bottom of the ninth. But David Bell homered on a 3-2 pitch from Robb Nen to send the game into extra innings. In the 11th, Mike Cameron walked with one out and stole second. With two outs, Tom Lampkin hit a chopper over the middle that second baseman Ramon Martinez gloved, but with no chance to get Lampkin. Cameron kept churning around third and beat Martinez’s throw home.

Relax? The Mariners would go 17-6 in their first 23 games out of the break.

My other game came a couple of weeks later. The Mariners led the Twins 3-2 in the eighth inning when Lou Piniella sent out little-used utilityman Charles Gipson as a defensive replacement in center field. Sure enough, later that inning Gipson threw out the potential tying run at home plate. That was the 2001 Mariners -- Piniella making every right move, all 25 guys contributing and delivering clutch throws and big hits. Baseball is a team game made up of individual talents. But I've never seen a baseball team where the sum of the team exceeded the individuals like the 2001 Mariners. They were a team in perfect harmony.

* * * *

"I haven't seen him hit the ball with any authority."
--Mariners manager Lou Piniella on Ichiro Suzuki, late in spring training


The Mariners had lost to the Yankees in six games in the 2000 American League Championship Series, but then Alex Rodriguez signed with Texas as a free agent. The Mariners countered that loss by winning the posting process for Ichiro Suzuki and signing him to a three-year, $14 million contract. In a less-heralded move, the team also signed free-agent second baseman Bret Boone. Still, nobody knew exactly what to expect from the club.

Spring training got off to a bad start. Jay Buhner, third on the team in home runs in 2000, suffered a torn arch in his left foot in his first at-bat and would miss most of the season. More troublesome was the performance of Ichiro, whom Piniella had initially planned on hitting third in the lineup. But Ichiro wasn’t hitting the ball with any power and the Seattle papers wondered if he was overmatched by major league pitchers who threw harder than the pitchers he'd regularly faced in Japan. Piniella and hitting coach Gerald Perry expressed their concerns that teams would just bunch their defense to the left.

Finally, in late March, Ichiro smacked a home run. "I shook his hand when he got to the dugout, just like I would with anyone else," Piniella said. "He had a big smile. I know it was good for him to hit the ball hard in that direction."

It was a small turning point for the Mariners. Maybe their Japanese import would be OK after all. Still, Piniella decided to install Ichiro as his leadoff hitter.

Like all of Piniella’s moves that year, it was the right one.

Ichiro got two hits in the season opener. A few days later he went 4-for-6 with two runs, a double and a two-run, game-winning home run in the 10th inning in Texas. A couple of days after that came The Throw. Ichiro had started a go-ahead Mariners rally in the top of the eighth with a pinch-hit single. In the bottom of the inning, facing the boos and taunts of Oakland fans who had been hounding him throughout the series, he sent his own message when he gunned down Oakland’s Terrence Long at third base with a laser beam from right field.

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Bret Boone
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesA familiar sight for M's fans in 2001: Bret Boone flipping his bat after a home run.
"I'll tell you what, you could hang a lot of clothes on that throw,” Piniella said. "It was going to take a perfect throw to get me -- and that's what he did,” Long said.

Just like that, Ichiro was a national sensation. He hit .336 in April, with hits in 23 of 25 games. The Mariners, meanwhile, went 20-5, including a three-game sweep in the Bronx. After the Mariners thumped the Rangers in one series, A-Rod predicted with complete insincerity but amazing accuracy that the Mariners would win 115 games. On May 23, Bell hit a home run in the eighth inning to beat the Twins, kicking off a 15-game winning streak. Ichiro and then Boone appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Later, Ichiro, Boone, Cameron and Martinez appeared on the cover of ESPN The Magazine, under the billing "ALL WORLD."

* * * *

"It wasn’t supposed to end like this. It wasn’t supposed to end here."
--Bret Boone, after losing the ALCS to the Yankees


The Mariners never let up. Ichiro would win the batting title with a .350 mark and lead the league in hits and stolen bases. Boone had one of the greatest seasons a second baseman ever had, hitting .331 with 37 home runs and a league-leading 141 RBIs. The beloved Martinez, 38 years old, hit .306 with a .423 on-base percentage and 116 RBIs. Slick-fielding first baseman John Olerud had a .402 OBP and scored and drove in more than 90 runs. Cameron knocked in 110. Mark McLemore played all over the field and scored 78 runs and swiped 39 bases. With Ichiro, Cameron, Boone and Olerud, it was one of the best defensive teams I've ever seen. The pitching was the best in the league, as well. Garcia led the league in ERA, Jamie Moyer won 20 games and Sasaki, Arthur Rhodes and Jeff Nelson provided a dominant bullpen trio.

The team went 18-9 in June and July and 20-9 in August. They were selling out every game -- the M's would lead the AL in attendance that year, outdrawing the Yankees, a team that had won three straight World Series titles. Local TV ratings were off the charts. The team clinched the division title soon after the return to action after the 9/11 attacks halted play for a week. A champagne-soaked celebration didn’t seem appropriate. Instead, the team gathered near the pitching mound for a prayer. Somebody brought out a flag and the players walked the flag around the stadium, thanking the fans for their support. As Seattle newspaper columnist Art Thiel would write, "They found a way to honor their achievements, fans and country without histrionics, triteness, or bad taste. A season of greatness found a seminal expression apart from the game."

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Mariners
Otto Greule/Getty ImagesThe Mariners celebrated their division title in subdued fashion.
All that was left was the season record for victories. The 1998 Yankees had won 114 games. The 1906 Cubs, in a much different era, had won 116 games. Piniella pushed hard, keeping the regulars in the lineup. The Mariners surpassed the Yankees in Game No. 160 as Olerud and Boone homered and Moyer pitched a gem. The next day, they tied the Cubs as Boone homered in the first inning and five pitchers combined for a 1-0 shutout. No team had ever won more games. "I think if you assembled an All-Star team and put them in our division, they couldn’t win 116 games," Boone said.

Maybe Piniella pushed too hard. Maybe the team was gassed from the record drive. Maybe the pressure to match their regular season was too great. Or maybe the playoffs are just a crapshoot. The Mariners, of course, aren’t regarded as one of the greatest teams of all time. They’re not mentioned in the same breath as those ’98 Yankees or the ’86 Mets or ’75 Reds. They didn’t win the World Series; they didn’t even reach it.

They beat Cleveland in five games in the Division Series, rallying to win the final two games after getting bombed 17-2 in Game 3. But there were problems. Shortstop Carlos Guillen had contracted tuberculosis, and there were fears he’d infected the entire clubhouse. He missed the Cleveland series and played sparingly in the ALCS against the Yankees. Martinez had pulled a groin against the Indians and was ineffective in the ALCS. In the first two games, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina pitched gems. Seattle won Game 3 14-3 and led Game 4 1-0 on Boone’s homer in the eighth, but Bernie Williams homered off Rhodes to tie it and then Alfonso Soriano hit a two-run walkoff homer off Sasaki. Game 5 was an anticlimactic 12-3 blowout.

* * * *

"I'm tired of [expletive] losing, I'm tired of getting my [expletive] beat, and so have those guys. We gotta change this [expletive expletive] around and get after it. And only we can do it. The fans are [expletive] off, and I'm [expletive] off, and the players are [expletive] off. And that's the way it is. There's no [expletive] easy way out of this, can't feel sorry for ourself, we gotta [expletive] buckle it up and get after it."
--Mariners manager John McLaren, June 2008


The decline wasn’t immediate. The 2002 club was in first place as late as Aug. 18 and won 93 games, but missed the playoffs. Piniella, in part to be closer to his family in Florida and in part because he was angry management hadn’t added any reinforcements at the trade deadline, left after the season to manage Tampa Bay. The 2003 club led the division by five games on Aug. 15, but Oakland got hot and the Mariners faded. Once again, 93 wins wasn’t enough to make the postseason.

By 2004, the team was aging and in decline and general manager Bill Bavasi, who had replaced Pat Gillick, was ill-equipped to handle the transition. Still, the downfall was excruciating. The Mariners had arguably become baseball’s premier franchise. They were filling Safeco Field. They were fun to watch. They had some of the highest revenues in the sport. Maybe they weren’t the Yankees -- but they were the next-best thing.

Since 2004, the team has gone 566-714, including 100-loss seasons in 2008 and 2010. The offenses the past two years have been two of the worst baseball has seen in decades. Attendance, once more than 43,000 per game, has fallen to 23,489. The decline in popularity is evident in the team’s radio broadcasts. The only commercials with player endorsements involve Jay Buhner, who has been retired 10 years, and Seattle-area native Travis Ishikawa, who has never played for the Mariners.

So what happened?

The foundation for demise was set in the Gillick era. Due to free-agent signings, the Mariners had no first-round pick in 2000, 2001 and 2003 and failed to sign 2002 first-rounder John Mayberry Jr. Those four drafts produced just two major leaguers of significance -- Adam Jones, who was traded to Baltimore in the Erik Bedard trade; and Eric O’Flaherty, who the club released after the 2008 season.

The team did suffer some bad luck with a slew of pitching prospects in the early part of the decade. Ryan Anderson, compared to Randy Johnson for his 6-foot-10 stature and blazing fastball, was a top-10 prospect but blew out his shoulder and never reached the majors. Jeff Heaverlo tore his labrum. Clint Nageotte battled injuries. Gil Meche had pitched well as a rookie in 2000 but missed all of the 2001 season with a frayed rotator cuff -- yes, the 2001 club could have been even better. While Meche eventually returned, he was never the star his rookie season indicated he had a chance to become.

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Clement
John Williamson/Getty ImagesIn 2005, the Mariners could have drafted Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun or Ryan Zimmerman. Instead they took Jeff Clement.
To make matters worse, when the Mariners hit bottom and started earning high draft picks, they botched them. In 2005, they had the third pick and most experts had them taking Long Beach State shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Instead, in one of the deepest drafts in recent years, they took USC catcher Jeff Clement, passing not only on Tulowitzki, but Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Ricky Romero. Those guys went with the next four picks. (Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Garza also went later in the first round). In 2006, drafting fifth, the team passed on local product Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw to draft Brandon Morrow. In 2007, the team took hard-throwing but inexperienced Canadian high school pitcher Phillippe Aumont; Jason Heyward went three picks later. 2008 first-rounder Josh Fields was a college reliever expected to reach the majors quickly; Mariners fans are still waiting.

Current rookie Dustin Ackley looks like the first good hitting prospect the Mariners have developed since A-Rod. Actually, that’s not completely accurate; they developed Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera, but Bavasi gave them away to Cleveland in ill-advised trades for Ben Broussard and Eduardo Perez in 2006. Those two combined for nine home runs that year and the Mariners finished 78-84. Bavasi brought in past-their-prime veterans like Scott Spiezio (.198 average over two seasons) and Rich Aurilia (.241 average before being sent back to the National League). Later, Bavasi would do unmentionable things like signing Carlos Silva and trading Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez.

In recent years, nearly every hitter the Mariners have produced has reached the majors with no concept of the strike zone -- guys like Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Wladimir Balentien and 2011 graduates Greg Halman and Carlos Peguero. You’re not going to win with guys like that.

So now the Mariners are headed for another season of 90-plus losses. They suffered through a 17-game losing streak in July. They’ve had some bright spots like Ackley and fellow rookie Michael Pineda. They still have Felix Hernandez. At one point recently, 12 of the 25 players on the roster were rookies, a sign that a complete rebuild was in order. But Ichiro is getting old, Franklin Gutierrez has regressed, Justin Smoak remains a question mark and third base and left field remain problem areas. The rookies strike out too much, the bullpen is thin and Felix's body language often suggests that he'd like to pitch with more than two runs of support.

I’ll be honest: It makes a Mariners fan want to re-watch that "Sweet 116" videotape again.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
Special guest Jim Caple joined me on Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast and we discussed many interesting topics, including:

1. Justin Verlander for MVP? Maybe this is the year a pitcher can finally win. And the best part: Jim actually has a vote!

2. Should the Cardinals bring back Tony La Russa as manager in 2012?

3. We discuss Ichiro Suzuki, his poor season and what to expect in the future.

4. A reader email gets Jim going on the Hall of Fame. And going. And going. Good stuff.

5. Jim says not to count out the Angels in the AL West.

Plus: Starlin Castro, Jim's favorite players to interview, how the game has changed in the past 25 years and much more on Baseball Today!

A look back at the 2001 rookie class

August, 19, 2011
8/19/11
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Ichiro SuzukiJeff Gross/Getty ImagesAs a rookie in 2001, Ichiro hit .350, stole 56 bases, scored 127 runs and won MVP honors.
Each day, fans cheer as Eric Hosmer, Freddie Freeman and Jeremy Hellickson go about their business. Wouldn't it be great to look into the future, and see how their careers take shape? Eric Karabell wrote about the 2011 rookies earlier today, but I'm still partial to the outstanding rookie class of 2001. Here's a look at 10 outstanding rookies from that year.

Adam Dunn

At the end of the 2010 season, Dunn was considered the most consistent player in baseball. For seven years, he had hit between 38 and 46 home runs (including four straight years of 40 homers) with between 92 and 106 RBIs. With over 350 home runs in 10 seasons, it appeared Dunn would easily approach some important milestones. However, in 2011, the bottom has fallen out, and Dunn has struggled to approach a .300 slugging percentage thanks to his .163 average. Dunn's progression into a prodigious slugger was fun to watch, but there is a real possibility that those days are over.

Highlight: Hitting 46 home runs in 2004, becoming the slugger everyone had predicted.

Hall call: If Dunn can produce a couple more 40-homer seasons, he will approach 500 career home runs. It would be difficult to ignore that number, although Dunn's low batting average and poor fielding would likely keep him out.

David Eckstein

Just by reaching the major league level, Eckstein was a feel-good kind of story. One of the shortest players in baseball, Eckstein carved out a niche by hitting, fielding, running, and hustling enough to help teams for 10 years. While he had a nice career, when compared to the other players on this list, Eckstein falls far short. Eckstein's career high in slugging was .395; by contrast, Michael Young has surpassed that number every full season.

Highlight: Winning the World Series with the Angels 2002 and winning World Series MVP honors with the Cardinals in 2006.

Hall call: Though he'll have plenty of stories to tell, Eckstein will not get to tell them in Cooperstown.

Roy Oswalt

Oswalt debuted on May 6 and immediately became one of the best pitchers in the National League, finishing with 14 wins and a 2.73 ERA. In a year of great rookie seasons, Oswalt was one of the best. It got better from there; after winning 19 games in his sophomore season, Oswalt has twice won 20 games, had an ERA of 3.01 or better in six of his 11 seasons and led the NL with a 2.98 mark in 2006. Though his strikeout rate is lower than his first few years, Oswalt should have a few more years in him if he can avoid the injuries that have hurt him this year.

Highlight: Winning Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS, pitching seven innings to lead the Astros to their first World Series berth.

Hall call: Though Oswalt has been called an ace his whole career, it's been awhile since he dominated the league, other than his stint late last season with the Phillies. He's on a good team, so if he can stick around and increase his counting stats, along with some postseason memories, he might have a shot.

Albert Pujols

In 2001, Pujols had just turned 21 and was thrust into the starting gig at third base, with only a few games above Class A ball. Pujols had a season for the ages, hitting 37 home runs, 47 doubles, with a robust 1.013 OPS. Pujols managed to exceed his seemingly unlimited potential and dominated baseball over the next decade, with a .328 career average and three MVP Awards.

Highlight: 2005 NLCS home run off Brad Lidge that is still going.

Hall call: Five years after his retirement, Pujols will coast into the Hall of Fame.

Jimmy Rollins

From the time he put on his first Phillies uniform, Jimmy Rollins was exciting. As a rookie, Rollins hit 14 home runs and stole 46 bases. For a team in the midst of losing franchise stalwarts Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen, Rollins was a breath of fresh air. Rollins never did get on base nearly enough, and while he eventually developed some pop and the speed is still around, he has never posted an on-base percentage of even .350. By contrast, teammate Chase Utley hasn't posted an OBP below .375 in any full season of his career.

Highlight: Being named the 2007 National League Most Valuable Player when he scored 139 runs and had 88 extra-base his, including 20 triples and 30 home runs.

Hall call: Rollins is approaching 2,000 career hits and still has a few years left, but the .272 career average and .329 on-base percentage could certainly sway voters against him.

CC Sabathia

Sabathia turned 21 during the 2001 season. Despite his youth, he pitched like he had plenty of experience, winning 17 games and striking out 171 batters in 180 innings. After a few modest years, Sabathia turned into an ace in 2006 and became a regular Cy Young contender. Still only 31, Sabathia has over 170 wins and 2,300 innings, showing no signs of slowing down.

Highlight: Clinching the 2008 National League wild card on three days' rest for the Brewers.

Hall call: Sabathia seems like an obvious Hall of Famer, but there are plenty of cautionary tales among pitchers who came up early and seemed like Cooperstown locks.

Ben Sheets

Sheets started his career like many rookies. The hype of a top prospect -- he even made the All-Star Game -- gave way to major league mediocrity, with enough potential demonstrated to spark much debate about the future. In 2004, Sheets dominated, having a season for the ages with a 2.70 ERA and 264 strikeouts. Though Sheets' teammates could only help him to 12 wins, his season was a great one. Unfortunately, that was as far as his brilliance reached, as injury issues affected his performance. Sheets still hasn't been able to recapture the magic and might not have much left in his arm.

Highlight: 2004, a great pitcher on a bad team.

Hall call: Is there a Hall of Fame for potential?

Alfonso Soriano

Sometimes, the much-hyped prospects actually come through. Soriano was a ballyhooed Yankee prospect and hit right away, with 18 home runs and 43 stolen bases as a rookie. The power developed, and Soriano became a rare dual threat who terrorized opposing pitchers, including four 30-30 seasons. For all his strengths, Soriano never drew many walks, which has led to an unimpressive career on-base percentage of .323. Worse, that mark seems to be ever-decreasing, as Soriano has been below that level every season since 2008.

Highlight: Hitting the would-be winning home run in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series versus Arizona.

Hall call: Soriano was certainly one of the most exciting players of his generation and spent most of his career in New York and Chicago. At the end of the day, the power and speed won't be enough to overcome the other flaws in his game.

Ichiro Suzuki

Ichiro had almost 1,300 hits and a .943 OPS in eight seasons in Japan. Naturally, lofty expectations were set when he came to the United States in 2001. Right off the bat, he hit well, and really didn't stop until his mysterious drop-off this season. Ichiro plays almost every game, excels in the field and on the basepaths and has hit over .350 four times. No matter how it ends, Ichiro's legacy will be impressive; the icing on the cake will be if he enters (and wins) the Home Run Derby.

Highlight: Setting the all-time single-season hits mark in 2004.

Hall call: Even without his Japan stats, Ichiro's career numbers are terrific, especially his defense and 80 percent stolen base rate. He should make it to Cooperstown on his first ballot.

Michael Young

Young was 24 when he became a Rangers regular, which is older than where most stars begin. Young proved to be one of the most consistent and versatile players in baseball. He's had modest power, a small amount of speed, and played over 300 games at three different positions. Young has always hit around .300 but rarely walked so never threatened to lead the league in OBP. Despite trade rumors and position shifts, Young has continued to play at a high level into his mid-30s.

Highlight: Winning the 2006 All-Star Game MVP.

Hall call: With 2,000 hits and counting, Young might someday approach counting stat totals that will make the discussion interesting, although he was certainly never close to the best player in the league.

David Lipman is a senior manager for ESPN Mobile, and you can follow him on Twitter.

Chat wrap: The debating game

August, 16, 2011
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The discussion got a little heated as angry Yankees fans fired back at me. We discussed Dustin Pedroia versus Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury versus Curtis Granderson. But we also discussed whether the draft slotting system is fair, whether a one-game wild-card playoff is a good idea and Prince Fielder's future. Plus much more!
I don't want to say this has been the most entertaining highlight of Seattle's season, but ...

Pat Gillick's 10 best moves

July, 22, 2011
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Pat GillickAP Photo/Mike GrollHall of Fame baseball executive Pat Gillick helped build playoff teams in several cities.
You can debate the merits of an executive getting elected to the Hall of Fame; personally, I find it a bit ridiculous that Pat Gillick got elected and will be enshrined this year while deserving players like Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell and others were snubbed yet again by the voters (yes, Gillick was elected via a special expansion era committee).

Gillick was the general manager of the Blue Jays from 1978 through 1994, building them from an expansion franchise into a two-time World Series champion. He ran the Orioles from 1996 to 1998, making the playoffs his first two seasons. He took over the Mariners for the 2000 season, and his first big move was to trade a disgruntled Ken Griffey Jr. The Mariners made the playoffs anyway and then won a record 116 games the following season. He took over the Phillies in 2006 and retired after they won the World Series in 2008 (he remains an advisor).

His ability to build winners is undeniable, although Gillick also had good timing with his various retirements. After winning two World Series, the 1994 Blue Jays had become an aging, past-its-prime ballclub, finishing 55-60. Gillick wasn't around when the Jays stumbled to the worst record in the AL in 1995. He took over a solid Orioles club in 1996, added a few veterans to get them over the playoff hump, but left after the team fell under .500 in 1998. The Orioles haven't seen a winning record since. The Mariners won 93 games in 2003, but were an old club with a bad farm system, depleted in part because Gillick had forfeited draft picks to sign veteran free agents. He stepped down before the team lost 99 games in 2004. Only the Phillies have maintained success after Gillick left, either a testament to his genius or a testament to knowing when to quit.

Here are 10 moves that got him into the Hall of Fame, in chronological order.

1. Selecting George Bell in the Rule 5 draft.

Bell had missed most of the 1980 season while in the Phillies' system, but the Blue Jays were astute enough to select the outfielder. He didn't become a regular until 1984, but over seven full seasons with the Jays hit .288 while averaging 24 home runs and 102 RBIs, winning the 1987 AL MVP when he hit 47 home runs and led the league with 134 RBIs.

2. Acquired Fred McGriff for Dale Murray.

McGriff had hit .272 AVG/.413 OBP/.456 SLG as an 18-year-old in rookie ball with the Yankees when Gillick got him as a throw-in for a deal that brought Dave Collins and Mike Morgan to the Blue Jays. Collins had been a high-priced free-agent bust for the Yankees in 1982, and George Steinbrenner eagerly dumped him for Murray, a middling middle reliever who was nearly done. McGriff would hit 125 home runs for the Blue Jays, helping them win the '89 AL East crown.

3. Drafted Tom Henke from the Rangers.

Teams that lost a free agent used to be able to draft an unprotected player off another team. In 1985, Gillick selected Henke, a hard-throwing but wild right-hander who had posted a 6.35 ERA for the Rangers in 1984. Henke turned into one of the best closers in the league, had a 2.48 ERA and 217 saves over eight seasons in Toronto, and was the closer on the 1992 World Series champion.

4. Drafting John Olerud ... and then signing him as a free agent.

Olerud had been one of the best college players in the nation as a sophomore at Washington State, hitting .464 while going 15-0 as a pitcher. But he suffered a brain aneurysm before his junior season and played sparingly. Most teams were scared off, but the Jays drafted him in the third round in 1989 and he went straight to the majors. Later, in Seattle, Gillick signed Olerud as a free agent and he posted a .392 OBP from 2000 to 2003.

5. Acquired Devon White from the Angels for Junior Felix and Luis Sojo.

Felix had played well for the Blue Jays in 1990 as a 22-year-old while White had hit .217 for the Angels. But the Jays needed better defense in center (34-year-old Mookie Wilson had been the team's primary center fielder in '90) and White was one of the game's supreme fly chasers. White not only won three Gold Gloves as the Jays won three straight AL East titles from '91-93, but he hit well and averaged 108 runs per season over those three years.

6. Trading McGriff and Tony Fernandez to the Padres for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter.

A few days later, Gillick made a good old-fashioned challenge trade, the likes of which you don't see much anymore. Fernandez had been a three-time All-Star with the Jays, but Alomar was younger and on the rise. McGriff was a better player than Carter, but the Jays had Olerud ready to play first base. In five seasons with the Jays, Alomar became one of the best all-around players in baseball, making the All-Star team all five seasons. He also hit .373 in five postseason series while with Toronto, driving in 18 runs and stealing 18 bases in 29 games. When Gillick went to the Orioles, one of his first moves was to sign Alomar as a free agent.

7. Signing Jack Morris, Dave Winfield and Paul Molitor as free agents.

By 1992, the Jays were drawing 4 million fans per season and had become one of baseball's richest franchises. Gillick had money to work with; the Jays had the third-highest payroll in 1992 and the highest in 1993. In '92, he signed veterans Morris and Winfield. Morris went 21-6 while Winfield hit .290 with 108 RBIs as the team's DH. The next season, Molitor replaced Winfield and was even better, hitting .332, driving in 111 runs, scoring 121 and finishing second in the AL MVP vote.

8. Signing Ichiro Suzuki.

Many American scouts and executives believed Ichiro was too thin and frail to succeed in the U.S. The Mariners won negotiating rights with a $13 million bid and soon signed Ichiro to a three-year, $14 million contract entering the 2001 season. All he did as a rookie was hit .350, score 127 runs, steal 56 bases, win AL MVP honors and lead the Mariners to 116 wins.

9. Signing Bret Boone as a free agent.

As good as Ichiro was in 2001, Boone might have been even better. He had one of the greatest seasons ever for a second baseman, hitting .331 with 37 home runs, leading the AL with 141 RBIs and winning a Gold Glove. All for $3.25 million.

10. Trading for Jamie Moyer.

Notice a trend? Gillick has a history of bringing back his former players. He had Moyer in Seattle and picked him up for nothing in 2006. In truth, all the key parts of the Phillies' 2008 World Series were already in place when Gillick arrived -- Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels had been drafted by the previous regime, and Shane Victorino had been acquired in the Rule 5 draft. Gillick's big moves were trading for Moyer, who would go 56-40 for the Phillies and was the team's No. 2 starter in 2008, and signing Jayson Werth before the 2008 season, after he had missed all of 2007 with a wrist injury.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
So, Thomas Neumann of Page 2 sent me this picture of a Sports Illustrated cover, listing all the millionaire players from 1985. I think Thomas was working on a career retrospective of John Denny or something, I'm not sure. (OK, he actually interviewed Mike Schmidt.) Anyway, it got me thinking: What if we compare the highest-paid players from 1985 to the highest-paid players of 2011 ... and find out if teams are smarter than they were in 1985. After all, front offices know much more than they used to, right? With all the advanced metrics out there, all the Ivy League dudes making the decisions and so on, you'd expect smarter moves being made by front offices.

Let's take the top 25 players from that 1985 cover, the top 25 highest-paid players of 2011 and check their Wins Above Replacement level (WAR) from Baseball-Reference.com. For 2011, we'll using their current WAR prorated to the entire season.

1985 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Mike Schmidt ($2.1M): 5.3 WAR
2. Jim Rice ($2.1M): 1.1 WAR
3. George Foster ($1.9M): 1.5 WAR
4. Dave Winfield ($1.7M): 2.8 WAR
5. Gary Carter ($1.7M): 6.7 WAR
6. Dale Murphy ($1.6M): 5.3 WAR
7. Bob Horner ($1.5M): 1.8 WAR
8. Rickey Henderson ($1.5M): 10.0 WAR
9. Eddie Murray ($1.4M): 6.0 WAR
10. Bruce Sutter ($1.3M): -0.1 WAR
11. Ozzie Smith ($1.3M): 5.7 WAR
12. Jack Clark ($1.3M): 3.3 WAR
13. Robin Yount ($1.3M): 1.7 WAR
14. Pedro Guerrero ($1.3M): 7.8 WAR
15. Rick Sucliffe ($1.3M): 2.8 WAR
16. Fernando Valenzuela ($1.2M): 5.6 WAR
17. Goose Gossage ($1.2M): 2.6 WAR
18. Tim Raines ($1.2M): 7.5 WAR
19. Steve Kemp ($1.2M): -0.2 WAR
20. Steve Carlton ($1.2M): 1.2 WAR
21. Andre Dawson ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR
22. Keith Hernandez ($1.1M): 4.9 WAR
23. Mario Soto ($1.1M): 3.6 WAR
24. Andre Thornton ($1.1M): 0.0 WAR
25. Fred Lynn ($1.1M): 2.0 WAR

Total salary: $34.8 million.
Total major payroll in 1985: About $264.7 million.
Percentage of total payroll: 13.1 percent.
Total WAR: 90.9.

2011 Top 25 Highest-Paid Players
1. Alex Rodriguez ($32.0M): 5.3 WAR
2. Vernon Wells ($26.2M): -1.4 WAR
3. CC Sabathia ($24.3M): 4.6 WAR
4. Mark Teixeira ($23.1M): 3.9 WAR
5. Joe Mauer ($23.0M): -0.5 WAR
6. Johan Santana ($21.6M): Injured
7. Todd Helton ($20.3M): 3.9 WAR
8. Miguel Cabrera ($20.0M): 6.7 WAR
9. Roy Halladay ($20.0M): 9.2 WAR
10. Ryan Howard ($20.0M): 2.5 WAR
11. Carlos Beltran ($19.3M): 5.1 WAR
12. Carlos Lee ($19.0M): 3.0 WAR
13. Alfonso Soriano ($19.0M): 1.2 WAR
14. Carlos Zambrano ($18.9M): 2.8 WAR
15. Torii Hunter ($18.5M): -0.7 WAR
16. Barry Zito ($18.5M): -0.5 WAR
17. Jason Bay ($18.1M): 0.0 WAR
18. Ichiro Suzuki ($18.0M): 0.5 WAR
19. Josh Beckett ($17.0M): 9.2 WAR
20. A.J. Burnett ($16.5M): 2.3 WAR
21. Matt Holliday ($16.3M): 5.1 WAR
22. Michael Young ($16.1M): 1.8 WAR
23. Roy Oswalt ($16.0M): 3.7 WAR
24. Jake Peavy ($16.0M): 0.7 WAR
25. John Lackey ($15.9M): -2.5 WAR

Total salary: $493.6 million.
Total major payroll in 2011: About $2.786 billion.
Percentage of total payroll: 17.7 percent.
Total prorated WAR: 65.9.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Major league owners in 2011 are paying a higher percentage of their total payroll to the top 25 players and receiving far less production. Even if you account for better seasons the rest of the way from the likes of Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki and Torii Hunter and John Lackey, the 2011 group wouldn't come close to matching the 1985 group in total WAR.

What's amazing is to look at the 2011 list and realize how many of those guys were never superstar players: Vernon Wells? Carlos Lee? Torii Hunter? Michael Young? A.J. Burnett? Barry Zito? Please. Good players at one point, never superstars.

Another way to look at it: Of the top 25 position players in B-R's WAR in 2011, only ONE (Miguel Cabrera) is one of the top-25 highest-paid players. In 1985, nine of the top 25 position players were among the 25 highest-paid players.

Also, in 2011, 10 of the top-25 highest-paid players are pitchers -- who inherently are more risky. Of those 11, five have spent time on the DL this season.

So, nice job major league owners and general managers! You're collectively, umm ... well, let's just say that Vernon Wells isn't worth $26.2 million.

Follow Dave on Twitter @dschoenfield and check out the SweetSpot Facebook page.
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