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Buster Olney had a note in his Sunday blog that the Dodgers may open the season with 13 pitchers.

Not to pick on the Dodgers, because they won't be the only team to carry 13 pitchers, but I just don't understand this trend. Seven relief pitchers seemed like a lot, but eight? There are barely enough innings available to keep seven relievers busy.

What's even more odd about the Dodgers potentially keeping eight relievers is they threw the second-fewest relief innings in the National League last season. There are 26 weeks in the regular season. Dodgers relievers threw 439 innings, or about 17 innings per week. That's about two innings per reliever per week, or 52 innings per season. Of course, your best relievers will pitch more than 52 innings. Matt Guerrier pitched 66 a year ago. Kenley Jansen should approach 70, assuming he has no further complications with his heart palpitations. Closer Javy Guerra will pitch more than the 46.2 he threw last season when he wasn't recalled until May 15. A good manager will figure out how to get all three of those guys around 70 innings -- or 54 total innings above and beyond the 52-inning average if you carry eight relievers.

In other words, there is no room for an eighth guy if you properly manage your pen. And considering the Dodgers only have one lefty reliever in Scott Elbert likely to make the team, this isn't a case of carrying three lefties for the sake of carrying three lefties.

But the bigger problem is it limits your flexibility in managing your bench. If you carry 13 pitchers, that means four bench players -- two hitters you need to keep handy to pinch-hit for pitchers, your backup catcher, and a utility guy like Jerry Hairston who can double-switch into just about any position. It leaves manager Don Mattingly with essentially no ability to hit for a player in the starting lineup. That means no pinch-hitting for James Loney, who hit .213/.254/.307 against left-handers in 2011. It means no hitting for Andre Ethier, who hit .220/.258/.305 against lefties (and is just .242 with little power in his career). It means you can't really hit for Tony Gwynn Jr., Juan Rivera or Adam Kennedy with an opposite-side hitter except in maybe the eighth or ninth innings, and even then only if you haven't already hit for the pitcher.

It basically means opposing managers will always get the matchup they want against the Dodgers. The tactical advantage for carrying 13 pitchers is so small it actually becomes a tactical disadvantage, especially for a team like the Dodgers that should be hitting regularly for its starting eight.

This is a theme you'll likely see me pound home time and again. One small reason scoring has gone down in recent seasons is the trend to bigger bullpens. That may be great for the platoon edge on defense, but it makes most teams ill-equipped to make a countermove.

On Tuesday I ran through Freddie Freeman’s projections and reasons to feel good and bad about his 2012, but there’s a larger point to make about young first basemen these days, starting with this: Freeman’s one of the success stories.

Look around the rest of the game, you’ll find a surprisingly large number of first-base disappointments with major questions to answer over whether or not they’re ever going to break through:

Chris Davis, Orioles: MLB career line of .252/.301/.448.
After mashing 36 homers as a 21-year-old in his full-season debut in the minors, Davis was ranked 65th on Baseball America’s 2008 list of baseball’s top 100 prospects. In fairness, Davis has had to deal with getting shuttled between the infield corners and from Texas to Baltimore, but he’s struck out more than 31 percent of the time in 1082 big-league plate appearances, and an OBP around .300 isn’t going to fly, even with his tremendous power. In his age-26 season, he needs to break through.

Lars Anderson, Red Sox: .175/.292/.200 (in 48 PAs)
Before 2009, Anderson ranked as the 17th-best prospect in baseball. It was all about projection, of course: He’d already reached Double-A and hit there before his 21st birthday. But the expectation that doubles would turn into homers as he matured hasn’t happened, and he hadn’t hit that many doubles in the first place -- a career minor-league ISO of .162 is nice, not excellent, not at first base. He’s not done, but he’s also not pushing his way into Boston’s plans.

Matt LaPorta, Indians: .238/.304/.397 in 1008 MLB PAs
The days when LaPorta was considered a top prospect and worthy payment for a couple of months of CC Sabathia’s time seem long gone now. He ranked 23rd on Baseball America’s top-100 list before 2008, “fell” to 27th as Indians property going into 2009, but after several clean shots as the Indians’ starter, he now looks like the guy who will lose his job to…

Casey Kotchman, Indians: .268/.336/.398
Seeing Kotchman on this list after his nice little season with the Tampa Bay Rays might seem harsh, but after already bouncing from Anaheim to Atlanta to Boston to Seattle, he’s already been a non-answer for a number of teams before his 30th birthday. But you can sort of understand why so many have taken a look: He had a four-year run on BA’s top-100 list where he never rated as low as LaPorta’s best, rising from the 22nd-best prospect in the land in 2002 to sixth (!) in 2005. Even allowing for the initial stumble at the outset of his big-league career with mono, Kotchman’s produced little power at a power position. He’s a slick fielder and a nice place-holder of last/cheap resort -- perhaps especially if you’ve already endured LaPorta-induced heartbreak -- but if he’s supposed to be an OBP guy, just remember that his career walk rate (8.3 percent) is lower than the MLB average over that time (8.5). Is that really what you’re supposed to have gotten from the sixth-best prospect in baseball?

Brett Wallace, Astros: .248/.323/.354
Back when Wallace was the 13th overall selection by the Cardinals in the 2008 draft, he was considered a pure hitting machine, but somebody whose thick build probably wouldn’t work out at third base. Even as a hit tool-only prospect, BA rated him as the world’s 27th-best prospect before the 2010 season. But in four years as a pro he’s flitted through four different organizations, hasn’t hit, and now the Astros are talking about giving him a shot -- back at third base, perhaps in part because he hasn’t hit anywhere close to well enough to be an adequate answer at first.

James Loney, Dodgers: .288/.348/.436
Including Loney on this list might seem unfair. He’s been durable, and like Kotchman he gets credited with good glovework. He bounced around the 30s and 40s on BA’s top-100 lists in the early Aughties, and that career rate might make it seem as if he’s delivered. Unfortunately, he hasn’t matched his career OPS since his rookie season back in 2007, when he wowed folks with a .919 clip. Back then, you could talk about Matt Kemp and Loney and think the Dodgers were set with two MVP candidates, but nothing Loney has done since has kept him in that conversation.

Chris Carter, Athletics: .167/.226/.254 in 124 MLB PAs
Carter hasn’t had a clean shot at a job yet, so he hasn’t accrued much playing time. But at this rate you have to wonder if the A’s will ever clear the path for him considering how many equally frustrating rivals they’ve collected to put in his way. Carter topped out as the 28th-ranked prospect by BA before 2010, and he’s also moved around a lot (three organizations). Heading into his age-25 season with a career .540 SLG in the minors, you might figure he’s due for a look, but the A’s also have Brandon Allen, sabermetric favorite Kila Ka’aihue (long live the Kila Monster), and…

Daric Barton, Athletics: .252/.362/.378
Barton might be the perfect example about of how “Moneyball” was a nice movie, but if there was even an organizing philosophy, you have to wonder if it hopped off the tracks at some point. When the A’s acquired Barton (with Kiko Calero) for Mark Mulder, it seemed like a perfect match. Barton topped out at 28th on BA’s top-100 list, but his patience at the plate made him seem like the organization’s idiosyncratic answer at first base. But in the middle of what seemed like a breakthrough season in 2010, he got fascinated with bunting at will (worse yet, manager Bob Geren indulged him), and he lost most of 2011 after tearing up his shoulder. Where the modern walking man fits in on the team that’s supposed to love walks more than anybody is up in the air.

Justin Smoak, Mariners: .227/.316/.385
There’s no joy to be had in putting Smoak on this list, and there are certainly special circumstances: He played with injuries to first one thumb and then the other and saw that sap his early season production. He then suffered a broken nose that placed him on the DL, and he lost his Dad -- all really tough things to work through. There was enough good stuff before he got hurt and after he healed to make you think he’ll be fine this year. But set against that you’ve got a first baseman who rated 13th on Baseball America’s top-100 prospects list heading into 2010, and he’s barely topping a .700 OPS.

Now, ’tis the season for hope and faith, new beginnings and redemption, and all the rest of the warm fuzzies you’re supposed to get this time of year. Carlos Pena's career got off on the wrong foot (several wrong feet, actually), to the point that the Tigers simply released the former top-five prospect at the end of spring training in 2006. But after five organizations Pena finally stuck as a 29-year-old journeyman with the Rays. How many of these guys' stories are going to have similarly happy endings? Touted as they’ve been, they’ve got plenty of questions to answer over whether or not they’ll be flat-out useful.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

As a Mariners fan in the 1980s, one player absolutely wrecked me above all others: Jim Presley. He was a third baseman with good power, a quick bat and a strong arm. In 1985, his first full season, he hit .275/.324/.484 with 28 home runs and 33 doubles. He looked like he'd be a star.

But while he made the All-Star team in 1986, his strikeouts increased from 100 to 172. The problem was obvious: The dude couldn't lay off the slider low and away. Time after time, he would flail helplessly at the pitch. It got comical; pitchers learned they didn't even have to throw the pitch close to the plate and Presley would chase. With two strikes, you knew it was coming; Presley knew it was coming. Swing and a miss. By 1991, not yet 30 years old, he was out of the majors.

All fans have their most frustrating players. Here are five current major leaguers who pop into my mind. Discuss your frustrations below!

Austin Jackson, Tigers: Just because you're on the list doesn't mean you're a bad player. Jackson is an excellent defensive center fielder -- according to the Defensive Runs Saved metric from Baseball Info Solution, he tied with Brett Gardner and Pablo Sandoval with 22 runs saved in 2011, the best total in the majors. What makes Jackson frustrating, of course, is the high total of strikeouts: 170 as a rookie in 2010 and 181 in 2011. He managed to overcome the strikeouts his rookie season when he hit .293 thanks to a high average on balls in play. Analysts predicted a big decline in 2011 unless he cut down his strikeouts, and they were right: Jackson hit .249 with a .317 on-base percentage, numbers exacerbated by Jim Leyland's stubborn insistence on hitting Jackson leadoff. Despite a great lineup -- the Tigers finished fourth in the majors in runs scored -- Detroit finished just 10th in runs scored by its leadoff hitters.

James Loney, Dodgers: In 2007, Loney hit .331 with 15 home runs in 344 at-bats as a 23-year-old rookie. He looked like a future stud, a first baseman who would hit for a good average and 25 to 30 home runs per season. But he's never matched the power potential, settling in with numbing consistency, hitting between 10 and 13 home runs each season. Since he's not a .300 hitter nor does he draw many walks, Loney's numbers remain subpar for a first baseman. The improvement just hasn't happened, yet Dodgers management continues to stick with him. He's now making $6.375 million; that's a lot to pay for a first baseman who's hit .281/.341/.411 over the past four seasons.

Mark Reynolds, Orioles: Reynolds has big-time power, of course: Since 2008, he's fifth in the majors with 141 home runs, trailing only Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira. But all those home runs come at the expense of record-breaking strikeout totals that drag down Reynolds' average. He's led the majors in K's each of those four seasons, and has racked up 834 -- more than 200 (!) per season. He shows no inclination to cut down on his swing. As a result, even though he draws walks, his .210 average and .322 on-base percentage cut into his overall offensive value. And then there's the defense. Reynolds had an .897 fielding percentage at third base in 2011, prompting the Orioles to start playing him at first. For now, they plan to move him back to third in 2012, and Reynolds has said he's lost weight this offseason to help improve his quickness and range at the hot corner. Now if only he would adjust a little at the plate.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees: He has a 5.20 ERA over the past two seasons, and while the Yankees may want to trade him, I see that as unlikely even if they pick up a large chunk of the remaining $33 million on his contract. His average fastball velocity, which peaked as high as 95.6 mph with the Marlins in 2005, was down to 92.7 in 2011. That's still plenty of velocity, but mixed with his lack of command and gopherball-itis, it's not enough to remain consistently effective. But enough to remain consistently frustrating.

Ricky Nolasco, Marlins: Nolasco went 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2008. He was prone to the home run, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio ranked second in the NL. His future seemed like it could include becoming one of the top pitchers in the league. While he's gone 37-30 over the past three seasons, his ERA has been 4.76 and his WHIP has increased each year. He still has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio (although it declined a bit in 2011), so he should be putting up better numbers. But he hasn't, and opposing batters hit .295 off him in 2011. The stuff and control are there. But we're still waiting for him to get his ERA back under 4.00.

You probably didn’t notice that the Pittsburgh Pirates recently signed first baseman and outfielder Nick Evans to a minor league contract within the past two weeks. There wasn’t much reason to do so. Evans was nondescript with the bat, hitting .256 with four home runs and 25 RBIs for the Mets in 2011.

But Evans did something within his limited time that was significant to those of us trying to learn about advanced defensive stats. It struck me as being the defensive equivalent to hitting .400 over 150-or-so at-bats. In 337 2/3 innings, the equivalent of 37 ½ nine-inning games at first base, Evans finished with seven defensive runs saved. That’s a good number for a first baseman. It tied him for most in the majors for the season with Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo.

It’s also significantly better than what the Pirates got from their first basemen last season. Theirs ranked 28th in the majors, costing the team 11 runs.

Defensive runs saved for first basemen calculates the ability to turn batted balls into outs and the success at getting outs on bunts.

Evans scored well primarily because he did well handling the 46 balls that were hit into his “zone,” with “zone” defined as the areas on the field in which first basemen turned batted balls into an out more than half of the time.

Evans’ revised zone rating was 84.8% (of the 46 balls in his zone, he converted 39 into outs).

That rate was tied for fifth-best among the 46 first basemen that played at least 300 innings at the position.

It was within striking distance of MLB leader Todd Helton (85.9 percent) and considerably ahead of Evans’ crosstown counterpart, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira (77.0 percent). For every 46 balls hit into his zone last season, Teixeira got 35 outs, four fewer than Evans did in his (admittedly small) sample.

The way that Baseball Info Solutions, which calculates a plus-minus rating for every fielder, looks at it, they divide batted balls into three areas for infielders -- balls hit to the left and right of the area where most outs are recorded, and balls hit directly where a first baseman most often records outs.

Evans was a plus-six on balls hit into the latter area, meaning he was six plays better than the average first baseman. That factored significantly into Evans’ defensive runs saved rating, as did his defense on bunts, which was similarly above average.

Evans’ success jibed with that which he’d had as a minor leaguer as well.

The researchers at Baseball Info Solutions, whose founder John Dewan came up with the defensive runs saved metric, acknowledge that the stat isn’t necessarily the perfect measure of a first baseman’s skills.

There are many other components to first base defense (a recent article in the blog “DRays Bay” attempted to put a value on each), the most recognizable to fans being the ability to handle throws from one’s teammates.

So we dug a little deeper.

In addition to coming up with sabermetric stats, Baseball Info Solutions hires “video scouts” (for the most part, former high school and college players) to chart games from television viewing, tagging notable plays into more than 80 subcategories of “Good Fielding Plays” (GFPs) and “Defensive Misplays & Errors.” (DM&Es)
There are tightly defined rules, devised by sabermetrician Bill James, to what constitutes a GFP and a DM.

First basemen were credited with just over 2,000 Good Fielding Plays and just under 1,100 Defensive Misplays & Errors in 2011, the ratio of good to bad being about 1.9-to-1.

In his time at first base, Evans’ ratio of GFPs to DMs was 24-to-5, or almost 5-to-1.

The reason for this was that in the eyes of multiple viewers (video scouts rotate so not to watch the same team or player too often), Evans was adept at a key aspect to his position not measured by Defensive Runs Saved or UZR/150- catching throws.

Evans was credited with 11 GFPs for “handling a difficult throw” (usually either by scooping it out of the dirt or coming off the base) in which the Mets got the batter out, and four GFPs for “catches wild throw,” meaning that he prevented a batter or baserunner from gaining an extra base by coming off the bag to block/catch an errant throw.

Samples of Evans handiwork in this area can be seen at these three links.

Evans was tagged for only one DM&E for “failing to catch the throw” from a teammate. His ratio of good-to-bad plays was 15-to-1. By comparison, the average ratio for a first baseman on these plays was 5-to-1. Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who won the NL’s Gold Glove, had 29 GFPs and 10 DM&Es related to handling throws.

We’re not saying that Evans can maintain the sort of success from his small sample over a full season.

But for the Pirates, who also showed a defensive-minded commitment with the signing of shortstop Clint Barmes, it’s an interesting sort of gamble that could be worth watching more closely as the 2012 season unfolds

Welcome to the National League West, baseball's most unpredictable division. I wouldn't be surprised if all five teams finished 81-81 in 2012.

Here are three fixes or action items for each club.

Arizona Diamondbacks

1. Rotation (Joe Saunders, eligible for arbitration)

Arizona's rotation posted a 3.84 ERA, only ninth in the NL, but a strong figure considering it had to pitch half its games in the desert. Most impressive, only the Phillies received more innings from their starters. If there's a red flag, it's that the rotation ranked 14th in the NL in strikeouts per nine innings. Saunders is in his final year before free agency, after posting a solid 3.69 ERA over 212 innings, and Arizona might not want to pay him the big increase he'll get from his 2011 salary of $5.5 million. The back of the rotation has an opening as well.

Likely solution: Look for the D-backs to re-sign Saunders to a two-year deal. He doesn't strike out many guys, but Arizona's outfield of Justin Upton, Chris Young and Gerardo Parra might cover the most ground in baseball. Rookies Jarrod Parker, Wade Miley and 2011 No. 1 pick Trevor Bauer should battle for the No. 5 spot out of spring training.

2. Find a leadoff hitter

Arizona's starting eight looks set, but nobody on the roster profiles as a quality leadoff hitter. Arizona leadoff hitters compiled a .314 OBP, with light-hitting Willie Bloomquist leading off most often, 75 times.

Likely solution: Kirk Gibson needs to think outside the box here, with a lefty/righty platoon perhaps necessary. How about Young leading off against lefties? He posted a .392 OBP against them in 2011, and Justin Upton and Paul Goldschmidt can provide power lower in the order. Parra might be the best option against right-handers.

3. Bullpen depth

The bullpen ERA improved from 5.74 in 2010 (worst in the NL) to 3.71 (10th). It helped that it didn't have to throw many innings, but there's no guarantee the rotation will carry such a heavy workload again. Plus, closer J.J. Putz has been injury-prone in his career and guys like Micah Owings and Bryan Shaw were surprising contributors.

Likely solution: Arizona won't spend big here, although a guy like Jonathan Broxton would have been a nice gamble. Look for them to troll for a veteran lefty or make a minor deal.

San Francisco Giants



1. Finder another bat -- one who can hit

The Giants' offensive woes were well-documented, of course -- last in the NL in runs scored, with the lowest on-base percentage. Some of that is the ballpark, some of it was injuries, but there's no denying it was a terrible offensive team.

Likely solution: No, Melky Cabrera is not the only answer. Or shouldn't be. While he had a career year with the Royals, his .339 OBP is hardly star level, and he hit 30 points above his career average. The other outfielders on the roster are Andres Torres and Nate Schierholtz. That's not a division-winning outfield. Brian Sabean: You need Carlos Beltran back. How many more years can you get out of that great young rotation before somebody gets hurt or leaves via free agency? You have to win now. Sign Beltran.

2. Shortstop (Brandon Crawford)

The ill-advised idea to sign Miguel Tejada last season predictably didn't work out. Crawford has the goods on defense, but his .204 batting average is an accurate indicator of his offensive abilities. Crawford remains the default option right now, and while the Giants got into a bizarre bidding war for Bloomquist, Giants fans would love to see a different free-agent shortstop in the Bay Area.

Likely solution: You never know, but there are no signs the Giants are pursuing Jose Reyes or Bay Area native Jimmy Rollins. The Giants signed Javier Lopez to a two-year, $8.5 million deal and picked up Jeremy Affeldt's $5 million option. Why not use some of that money for a shortstop? In the end, unless the Giants sneak in for a second-tier shorstop like Rafael Furcal, it looks like Crawford will be the guy.

3. No. 5 spot in the rotation

The two candidates on the roster right now are Barry Zito (5.87 ERA in 53 innings) and Eric Surkamp (5.74 ERA in six starts as a rookie). As good as Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are, and as good as Ryan Vogelsong was in 2011, the rotation is one major injury and Vogelsong regression from looking a little shaky.

Likely solution: Surkamp had great numbers at Double-A -- 142.1 IP, 110 hits, 44 BB, 165 SO -- and the Giants skipped him past Triple-A in promoting him to the majors. He's a lefty who isn't overpowering with a fastball that averaged just 87.9 mph in his stint in the majors. Look for Zito to get the job out of spring training: "I'm not gonna hide from it: Barry Zito is our fifth starter next year," Bruce Bochy told KNBR radio station in November.

Los Angeles Dodgers



1. Find a new owner

While the Dodgers were allowed to sign Matt Kemp to a $160 extension, until Frank McCourt sells the club, the bankrupt Dodgers will be hamstrung on moves. McCourt has agreed to sell the team by April 30.

Likely solution: The bidding process starts next week and Mark Cuban says he'll participate. Dodgers fans should love that idea, but baseball previously balked when Cuban looking into buying the Cubs and Rangers. A team of investors fronted by ex-Dodgers Orel Hershiser and Steve Garvey is one possibility. Former agent Dennis Gilbert, who also pursued the Rangers, fronts another group of partners.

2. Infield

Here's how bad the Dodgers' offense was in 2011:

First base: 27th in majors in OPS
Second base: 28th in majors in OPS
Third base: 24th in majors in OPS
Shortstop: 19th in majors in OPS

Likely solution: The Dodgers have already signed Mark Ellis to play second base and Adam Kennedy to help at third, low-cost fixes but hardly great solutions. It looks like another year of James Loney at first base, but maybe it's time to punt on him and try prospect Jerry Sands. Loney has hit just 48 homers over the past four seasons and doesn't walk much. He's a .281 hitter without anything to go with it, and he's due a raise in arbitration over the $4.88 million he made in 2011. The lone bright spot is speed demon shortstop Dee Gordon, who looks to show his .304 rookie season wasn't a fluke. (Juan Uribe is also still around, at $16 million over the next two seasons. Yay.)

3. Rotation (Hiroki Kuroda, free agent)

GM Ned Colletti has indicated the club can't afford to re-sign Kuroda, unless he's willing to take a big cut. (Kuroda has said he'll either sign with the Dodgers or return to Japan). After Clayton Kershaw, Ted Lilly and Chad Billingsley, there are two spots to fill.

Likely solution: Cheaper free agent veterans like Aaron Harang or Chris Capuano are possibilities. Trading Andre Ethier for a starter is another option. Look for the No. 5 spot to be filled from within -- somebody like Nathan Eovaldi, Allen Webster or Chris Withrow.

Colorado Rockies



1. Third base (Ian Stewart)

Rockies third basemen hit a combined .222/.281/.348, among the worst production from the position in the majors, as Ty Wigginton earned the majority off the playing time after Stewart collapsed. Stewart hit .156 with zero home runs in 122 at-bats, although he found his stroke at Colorado Springs (of course, everyone finds their stroke at Colorado Springs). Here's the thing about Stewart: Even when he was good, he wasn't that good -- his park-adjusted OPS from 2008 to 2010 still places him as a below-average hitter.

Likely solution: It's possible Stewart gets non-tendered; there's also rumors off a Stewart-for-Blake DeWitt deal with the Cubs (your abscess for our canker sore). Top prospect Nolan Arenado, the Arizona Fall League MVP, hit .298 with 20 home runs at Class A Modesto, but he's just 21 in April and probably needs another season in the minors. The Rockies have also asked about Atlanta's Martin Prado, reportedly offering outfielder Seth Smith.

2. Starting pitcher (Jorge De La Rosa out for at least half the season)

As 2011 proved, it's still difficult to build a consistent rotation in Colorado. The Rockies' rotation compiled a 4.73 ERA, ranking 15th in the NL. Yes, Coors Field is a hitter's park, but it's no longer the Coors Field of old. It was a bad rotation. Right now, Jhoulys Chacin is the only starter who looks like a reliable option for 2012.

Likely solution: What the Rockies have done is collect young, power arms. They got Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for Ubaldo Jimenez; they just picked up Tyler Chatwood from the Angels for Chris Iannetta. Esmil Rogers is still around, and still very raw. A veteran starter acquired via trade is a possibility to line up behind Chacin and Jason Hammel; one guy the Rockies have pursued is Jeremy Guthrie, offering closer Huston Street.

3. Second base (Mark Ellis signed with the Dodgers)

Jonathan Herrera is still around, but the .300 average he posted in April looked more and more like a fluke as the season progressed. He finished at .242, and considering he has no power, isn't a viable short-term or long-term solution.

Likely solution: Look for the Rockies to make a trade pitch for Padres second baseman Orlando Hudson. There isn't much left on the free-agent market, although Kelly Johnson would make for an interesting risk in the thin air if he doesn't re-sign with the Blue Jays.

San Diego Padres



1. Bullpen/closer (Heath Bell, signed with Marlins; Chad Qualls, free agent)

Welcome to San Diego, Josh Byrnes. The new GM will have to figure out how to build a winning club on a payroll of $53-55 million. But you know what? The Padres aren’t that far behind the Diamondbacks. The Padres had a run differential of minus-18; the Diamondbacks had a run differential of plus-69. The Padres would have been expected to win 79 games based on their differential; the D-backs 88. With the departure of Bell and last season’s trade of Mike Adams, the Padres will be looking for bullpen depth.

Likely solution: Ernest Frieri and Luke Gregerson are the best internal candidates, but Frieri needs to improve his control and Gregerson is more of a righty specialist. Rookie Brad Brach, a one-time 42nd-round draft pick who signed for $1,000 has dominated in the minors but probably needs time in middle relief. The Padres won’t spend big on a free agent, so look for a trade.

2. Power (empty)

Ryan Ludwick led the team with 11 home runs. Nobody else reached double digits. And don’t blame the deep canyons of Petco Park -- the Padres hit 45 home runs on the road, fewest in the majors.

Likely solution: None. The Padres’ "big" moves have to been bolster the bench with Mark Kotsay and John Baker. Prospect Anthony Rizzo, who hit 26 home runs in 93 games at Triple-A Reno, will be given another shot at first base after hitting .141 with one home run in 128 at-bats with San Diego. Kyle Blanks is still around, but at 270 pounds, his lack of range in the outfield is a problem. Third-base prospects Jedd Gyorko and James Darnell are both close to big-league ready and provide some hope for punch down the road.

3. Starter (Aaron Harang, free agent)

Mat Latos, Cory Luebke and Tim Stauffer are a solid top three, with Luebke’s season in particular flying under the radar (154 strikeouts in 139.2 innings). The Padres got good work out of Dustin Moseley and Clayton Richard over 38 combined starts, but both guys delivered just 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings and are good bets to regress, even pitching in Petco.

Likely solution: The Padres have offered Harang arbitration, but he’ll probably get a two-year offer from another team. Otherwise, it’s hoping that Moseley and Richard hold their own and that prospects Casey Kelly and Robbie Erlin (acquired in the Adams trade) are ready by midseason.

Five reasons you should check out Tuesday's Baseball Today podcast with myself and Mark Simon:

1. Jered Weaver finally lost a game and we explain how the Red Sox beat him.

2. Bartolo Colon didn't get credit for the win, but was excellent yet again, and you may be surprised how he's doing it.

3. Is Justin Verlander one of the top 10 starters in the game? I'm not so sure, but Mark disagrees.

4. How tough has the Braves' schedule been and should David Ross really become Jair Jurrjens' personal catcher?

5. Fun Armando Benitez factoid that you won't want to miss!

Plus emails, injury updates, Andre Ethier's hitting streak, James Loney's $1 fines, the Giants' hitting woes and a preview of Tuesday's games.

This year’s Dodgers offense was already going to be something of a dependent proposition -- dependent on the availability of Rafael Furcal. If OBP is the lifeblood of any offense, Furcal was the man being counted on to deliver it from the top of the order. But now that L.A.’s leadoff man is out for at least the next six weeks with a broken thumb, the Dodgers have to confront the same ugly numbers that have defined their destinies in the previous five seasons.

Since coming over from Atlanta in 2006, Furcal has been something of a weathervane for the club’s fortunes -- when he plays, it’s a contender, and when he’s not, it struggles to reach .500. Over the past five seasons, the Dodgers have a record of 306-257 when Furcal has been healthy enough to start and 123-124 when he’s out of the starting lineup. (And for all of that, he’s gotten as high as 14th in the MVP voting just once -- in 2006, when he played in a career-high 159 games in his first season in L.A.) With the usual small-sample caveats, this season was no different: Furcal in, Dodgers win, with a 5-2 record in his starts, 1-2 with grinder Jamey Carroll subbing.

Replacing Furcal’s bat might seem to be where the Dodgers will take the biggest hit. Projected by PECOTA for the second-best OBP in the lineup (behind Andre Ethier) at .339, for a .341 by ZiPS and for a .349 OBP by BIS, you may not read that as irreplaceable. However, the Dodgers were projected to rank 13th in the league at getting people on base, and absent Furcal for a quarter of the season or more, that isn’t going to get any better, even if the patient Carroll gets most of the playing time in his absence.

However, will the hit be that bad? It’s worth wondering now that the Dodgers have Carroll around, because last year they actually managed a slightly better record with him in the lineup than Furcal. Carroll’s career walk rate (10 percent) has been a fairly reliable commodity, creating a career OBP of .356, against Furcal’s .350.

What about defense? Carroll’s in his age-37 season, and might not be seen as a true shortstop these days. Given that there’s nobody else on the roster to replace Furcal with who resembles an everyday shortstop -- with prospect Ivan DeJesus Jr. long being seen as someone likely to wind up at second base -- it might be easy to rate Furcal’s value on defense fairly high. Admittedly, losing him should hurt, but via James Click’s Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Dodgers have bounced around from as high as second-best in MLB with Furcal playing regularly (in 2009) to 24th in 2006 and 20th in 2007 and 2010.

Fielding metrics like Total Zone (from Baseball-Reference.com) or Colin Wyers’ new Fielding Runs metric suggest that there wasn’t a lot separating Furcal and Carroll defensively last year. So even when talking about a defensive position as important as shortstop, defense necessarily has to work synergistically. Or, as Al Capone might note, "But in the field, what? Part of a team!"

If you remember "The Untouchables," you know what came next. And because of the club’s big-picture record without Furcal in the lineup, in his absence it’s easy to believe that it’s the Dodgers who stand a good chance of being bludgeoned. Even with their restocked rotation, this was a team that was going to have to win its share of close ballgames because of a series of decisions made about their lineup, from their enduring faith in James Loney’s punchless bat from first base, a bopper’s slot, to signing low-OBP infielder Juan Uribe away from the Giants.

In the abstract, this shouldn’t be quite as devastating as it sounds, but everything depends on the Dodgers’ depth. Can they count on Carroll and Casey Blake as regulars in their age-37 seasons? Maybe if Blake’s health puts him back in the lineup at third base somewhat regularly, the Dodgers might not seem not that badly off, swapping in one OBP threat in Carroll for another.

But the problem is that they’re relying on players close to the end of their careers, and if Blake or Carroll falter, there isn’t much to fall back on. DeJesus is projected to a .319 OBP (by PECOTA), the same as the team’s projected mark. If the Dodgers are going to endure, it’ll have to be on the merits of their old men.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter here.

As miserable as the Red Sox have played so far, at least they can look at a lineup that includes Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz and know -- eventually -- they’re going to score a lot of runs.

The fans of the Tampa Bay Rays, however, are staring down a lineup that includes Triple-A veteran Dan Johnson hitting cleanup, Cubs castoff Sam Fuld hitting leadoff and 37-year-old Johnny Damon trying to hold off the cruelties of age.

It’s been brutal start for the defending AL East champions: 20 runs scored through nine games, with a .163 team batting average. With runners in scoring position, they’re hitting .150. It’s added up to a 1-8 record and now the Rays have to play the Red Sox and Twins this week, two other teams with playoff aspirations due to break out of hitting slumps.

In 2010, the Rays finished third in the AL in runs scored, despite finishing 13th in the league in batting average. They did it by drawing the most walks in the league and stealing the most bases. And they also did it with clutch hitting. Overall, the Rays hit .247/.333/.403, but with runners in scoring position they hit .266/.368/.422 and in so-called high-leverage situations, when a game’s outcome is most up for grabs, they hit .272/.354/.442.

In other words, the talent level of the Tampa Bay offense wasn’t that of the third-best offense in the league. Yes, the speed and stolen bases helped, but it was a team that relied on timely hitting. The 2011 Rays were counting heavily on big production from Manny Ramirez and Damon. Ramirez is gone and Damon looks lost early on, hitting .125 (4-for-32) with nine strikeouts and just one walk.

OK, they’re not going to hit .163 all year and they’ll hopefully get Evan Longoria back in a couple weeks, but this team is going struggle to score runs all season. And that’s not the only reason I’m declaring the Rays on life support:

1. The rotation is shaky. In 2010, Tampa Bay starters posted a 3.99 ERA, third-best in the AL. Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis combined to go 24-18 with a solid a 4.23 ERA. James Shields had an ERA over 5.00. Of 92 major league starters to pitch 162 innings, Niemann ranked 82nd, Davis 83rd and Shields 91st in home runs allowed per nine innings. Yes, some of that was due to facing the tough lineups of the AL East, but Tropicana Field is a relatively tough home run park. Niemann (.263) and Davis (.272) also had low averages allowed on balls in play, suggesting some regression would occur in 2011 (even with Tampa’s usually stout defense).

2. The bullpen. As “Baseball Prospectus 2011” reported, Tampa Bay’s bullpen was the best in the league last season, worth 4½ wins more than the Yankee pen, eight more than Boston’s. All those guys are gone, replaced by Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, rookie Jake McGee and others who will be hard-pressed to come close to the 2010 results.

3. The running game. So important to Tampa’s success last year, the Rays are on the losing end this year -- because they can’t stop it. While Tampa is eight for 10 on the bases, their opponents are 15 for 15. Something else to worry about.

Look, Tampa is every stat head’s little engine that could. They’ve won two of the past three AL East titles despite spending about $444 million less than the Yankees and $243 million less than the Red Sox.

But it’s not going to be three out of four.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Dodgers at Giants

Monday: Clayton Kershaw versus Madison Bumgarner
Tuesday: Chad Billingsley versus Tim Lincecum
Wednesday: Ted Lilly versus Jonathan Sanchez

Sadly we won’t get a Kershaw-Lincecum rematch of Opening Day, but we’ll see three excellent matchups. Bumgarner must rebound from a bad first start in which he lasted just three innings. With last week’s incident at Dodger Stadium involving fan-on-fan violence, extra security will be on hand at AT&T Park. The Dodgers are 5-4 but another team with a struggling offense, having scored just 28 runs in nine games.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Tuesday: David Price versus Jon Lester (Tampa Bay at Boston)

Yes, I think I’ll want to check this one out.

THREE SWINGS

1. Jered Weaver and Dan Haren may be as good as any 1-2 combo in the majors. After Weaver added the strikeout to his arsenal last season, he moved into the upper echelon of major leaguer starters. He’s showing it wasn’t a fluke after sending down 15 Blue Jays on Sunday. Haren got the win in relief in Saturday’s 14-inning win over Toronto and has 13 strikeouts without a walk so far.

2. Is Joey Votto even better than last season? The 2010 NL MVP is hitting .455/.548/.727 and NL pitchers are showing their fear: Votto has eight walks, only three strikeouts.

3. Kudos to Ozzie Guillen for suggesting he may go to a closer-by-committee approach. Yes, this came about primarily because former setup man Matt Thornton blew two of his first three save opportunities, but going to a committee allows Guillen to tactically deploy his two late-inning lefties (Thornton and Chris Sale) and his late-inning righties (Jesse Crain and Sergio Santos) as best suited to the situation.

RANT OF THE WEEK

James Loney, it’s time to step up. The Dodgers first baseman turns 27 in May, but instead of reaching his peak, he’s become a dud. After hitting .331/.381/.538 in 96 games as a rookie in 2007, big things were expected. After hitting .289 with 13 home runs in 2008, big things were still expected. When his OPS slid to .756 in 2009, people said the power may still come. When he hit .267 with 10 home runs in 2010, reality set in: James Loney isn’t that good anymore. He’s off to a slow start (.441 OPS) and the Dodgers -- if they want to contend in a tough division -- may need to figure out a way to upgrade their offense at first base.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

After half a month of calisthenics and a week of games, Joe Torre already feels like a distant memory for the Dodgers, and the idea of "manager Don Mattingly" is shedding some of its new-car smell.

Even given the bonhomie typical of spring training, the initial reviews of Mattingly stepping into the skipper's shoes have been positive. Or perhaps the more accurate word is "friendly." There is a fresh attitude in Dodgertown that contrasts with the festering discontent that underscored the second half of 2010, and there is a new manager, and while the two might or might not have anything to do with each other, the correlation hasn't hurt Mattingly. No one right now misses Torre, whose world-weary presence over last season's deteriorating team came to seem stultifying. But whatever you might think of the manager-turned-MLB executive vice president for baseball operations, he casts a considerable shadow that Mattingly might have had trouble stepping out of. Instead, these Dodgers are now Mattingly's Misfits.

But much as this honeymoon might have less to do with Mattingly than the natural balancing of the emotional scales, the end of the honeymoon could easily involve factors beyond his control. The Dodger offense looks like an office building in dire need of retrofitting, with but one player (Andre Ethier) in the projected starting lineup who played in at least 100 games last season with an on-base percentage above .330. The earthquake might not come -- Rafael Furcal could stay healthy, James Loney and Matt Kemp could bounce back, someone else might surprise -- but Mattingly is going to be tested from the outset. Is he going to try to manufacture runs like it's the Dead Ball Era, at the risk of undermining the big inning the team and its fans will crave? Or will he sit back and hope for the best, a best that might never come?

The biggest advance criticism of Mattingly has been his lack of managerial experience in the major or minor leagues, but it's not clear that any amount of worldliness could have taught him the machinations to generate a comfort zone of scoring from this crew. In order to be viewed as a success, Mattingly probably needs to do the very thing that sounds almost too good to be true. Through the force of his quiet, tough-but-encouraging personality, he needs to somehow get the Loneys and Kemps to play to the very best of their abilities, and to keep it going over the long haul of his very first season at the helm.

Jon Weisman writes about the Dodgers at Dodger Thoughts for ESPNLosAngeles.com. Follow him on Twitter.

From Jon Weisman's Dodger Thoughts, Monday night:

Ned Colletti said on Prime Ticket's Dodgers Live postgame show that he and Jim Thome spoke at about 8:30 p.m. tonight, right before his trade to the Dodgers was officially completed, and Thome said that he is eager to contribute but that "playing first base is probably not going to be an option."

Nonetheless, Colletti was excited to get him.

"Jim Thome is a great hitter, a home-run hitter," he said. "He is in the twilight of his career, no question. He is also a great leader."

I'm not sure I understand ... Thome's essentially refusing to play first base? Not even just a little bit, later this month, to give James Loney a rest? Not even in October, with James Loney on the bench suffering from a pulled hammy or a terrible case of the rickets?

Of course, Thome and Loney are both left-handed batters. You can't platoon them. Loney's quite a bit better in the field and on the bases; Thome's quite a bit better in the batter's box. On balance, the Dodgers probably would win a few more games with Thome playing instead of Loney ... Well, that might have been true five months ago. It's September now, and Thome's value relative to Loney's would be measured in a fraction: 2/7 of a game or something.

The bottom line is that Jim Thome might have just become the greatest dedicated pinch-hitter in the history of the universe. I read somewhere that Colletti thinks of Thome as the Dodgers' version of the 2008 version of Matt Stairs ... but Matt Stairs collected exactly one hit last October, and Matt Stairs isn't going to draw a great deal of Hall of Fame support. I'm not sure that what Colletti's doing has been done before.

Meanwhile, the White Sox have given up on the season. I mean, really given up. What's more, they didn't get a legitimate prospect in return for Thome and they're helping the Dodgers pay Thome's remaining salary this season. I guess the bright side is that now the White Sox don't have to worry about finding room for Scott Podsednik in the lineup next year.