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• Austin Jackson scored a run in each of the Tigers' first six games this season. That was the longest streak by a Detroit batter to start a season since Darrell Evans crossed the plate in each of the first eight contests in 1986. And it's the longest streak by a Tigers leadoff hitter since 1939, when one of Jackson's center field predecessors, Barney McCosky, also scored in the first eight games of the season. In game seven on Friday, however, Jackson was on base only once (he walked in the eighth) and was stranded at third.
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  Duane Burleson/AP PhotoAustin Jackson is having a solid season for the Tigers early on.
  The Red Sox managed to blow a three-run lead in the ninth and a two-run lead in the 11th in losing a wild one to Detroit on Sunday, 13-12. It was the first time Boston had scored a dozen runs and lost since May 31, 1970, when they were on the wrong end of a 22-13 slugfest with the White Sox at Fenway.
• Alfredo Aceves gave up all three ninth-inning runs in Sunday’s game without retiring a batter, making him just the second Red Sox pitcher in the live-ball era to work zero innings pitched in each of his first two appearances of the year. Guido Grilli faced one batter each in the first two games of the 1966 season, and didn't get either of them out.
• The Tigers used eight pitchers in that 13-12, come-from-behind win over the Red Sox. It marked just the second time in 70 years that Detroit had come back to win a game in which their starter surrendered seven-plus runs without getting through the third inning. Omar Olivares was the starter in 1997 when the Tigers rallied to beat Baltimore 11-8.
• On Sunday, the Yankees managed just three hits -- all doubles. That same day, the Twins had just two hits as Jason Hammel posted the longest no-hit bid of the year so far. Both Minnesota knocks were doubles. It's the first time in almost three years that two teams have done that on the same day. But then … the Royals did it against Oakland (three hits, three doubles) on Monday … and the Athletics did it against Kansas City (one hit) on Tuesday.It's the first time since at least 1917 that there have been three straight days where a team had every hit be a double.
• On Sunday, Jeff Samardzija (making just his sixth career start) was afforded the chance at a complete game. He had to be pulled after giving up a two-out homer that pulled the Nationals to within a run. Four days later, Matt Garza was en route to a shutout against Milwaukee, but was pulled after committing a two-out error that allowed the inning to continue. So the Cubs had two pitchers this week leave the game after 8.2 innings pitched.The Cubs hadn't had two pitchers work exactly 8.2 innings in the same season since 1995 (Jaime Navarro and Frank Castillo).
• In Sunday's Cardinals-Brewers game, you could say the teams spread it around. In the 9-3 Milwaukee victory, the 12 runs were charged to eight different pitchers. In fact, every hurler who appeared in the game ended up with at least one earned run on his record.It's the first game in eight seasons where the teams combined to use eight or more pitchers, and every single one of them got charged with at least one earned run. The last time that happened was on Sept. 9, 2004, when the Royals erupted for a 26-5 victory over the Tigers in the first game of a doubleheader.
• James Shields got called for a balk Wednesday on an illegal pickoff throw to third. That was in the bottom of the fifth -- after Justin Verlander had been called for his own balk in the top of the fifth.It was the first MLB game to feature balks by both teams in the same inning since Aug. 16, 2004, when the Rangers' Mickey Callaway and then-Indian CC Sabathia committed them in the fourth inning of a 5-2 Texas win.
• In that same game, Verlander threw eight shutout innings before getting tagged for four runs and the loss in the top of the ninth. He became the first pitcher to throw eight scoreless innings, then surrender four (or more) runs in the ninth to take a loss since Tim Hudson did it for the Braves on Sept. 22, 2005. Hudson allowed a three-run homer to Shane Victorino of the Phillies for most of that damage before Macay McBride had to come in and get the final out.
• In Monday's Yankees-Orioles game, Derek Jeter went a perfect 4-for-4 for the visitors, while Matt Wieters went a perfect 4-for-4 in the home dugout. It was the first game this year to feature two players with four-hit games.Since the start of 2010, there's been only one other MLB game where a player for each team went a perfect 4-for-4 or better -- and it was between the Orioles and Yankees. On July 30, 2011, Vladimir Guerrero’s 4-for-4 was the bright spot for Baltimore as the Yankees -- led by Robinson Cano's 5-for-5 -- demolished them 17-3.
• In Yu Darvish's much-anticipated major league debut on Monday, he allowed five earned runs, four walks, hit a batter, threw one wild pitch -- and won the game because the Rangers spotted him eight runs.He's the first pitcher in the live-ball era to win his major league debut while giving up all of those stats (or worse). Even take away the wild pitch, and only one other hurler has hit five earned runs, four walks, one HBP and a win in his debut. That was the Blue Jays' Matt Williams on Aug. 2, 1983.
• Jeff Gray of the Twins earned the first one-pitch victory of the season on Wednesday. Gray threw his one and only pitch to Peter Bourjos to end the top of the seventh, after which the Twins took the lead in the bottom of the inning. The Twins, conveniently, recorded the last one-pitch win last season, by Matt Capps on Sept. 23.
• Speaking of pitching oddities, the Royals-Athletics game was finally called in the top of the eighth inning on Tuesday after its second rain delay. Aaron Crow, who had pitched the seventh for the Royals, was credited with his first career save. Technically, he does meet the save criteria set forth in the rule book, notably that of being the "finishing pitcher" in a game his team won.The last player to be credited with a save prior to the ninth inning was Tony Sipp of the Indians, who received one in a rain-shortened affair with Tampa Bay on July 23, 2010. That also remains Sipp's only career save.
• On Tuesday, Freddy Garcia of the Yankees famously threw five wild pitches to tie the single-game American League record for such a thing. He was also the first pitcher to throw five-plus wild pitches in an outing of less than five innings. But two of those wild pitches scored runs for Baltimore. Another run scored on an error. That made the Orioles the first team in two years to score four-plus runs with one or fewer RBI. (The one RBI they did get came on a home run.)For the Orioles, it was just the second time since moving to Baltimore that they scored four runs on one or zero RBI. The other was in their inaugural year: On June 27, 1954, they scored three times on errors by the Athletics before finally walking off on an RBI single in the bottom of the 11th.
• Oakland "walked off" in unusual fashion on Wednesday when Jonathan Broxton plunked Yoenis Cespedes and Jonny Gomes to force in the winning run in the bottom of the 12th. It was the first game to end with back-to-back hit batters since Sept. 2, 1966, when Stu Miller of the Orioles hit Al Weis and Tommie Agee of the White Sox in the bottom of the 11th. (I admit that Elias found this a lot quicker than I would have.) However, Gomes became the first Athletics batter to get hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in extra innings since at least 1947. (It had never happened in the Baseball Reference "play index" era.) It's also noteworthy that Oakland scored its two runs in the 12th without a base hit. The three runners ahead of Cespedes reached on two walks and an error.
• Before Friday, there had been 36 double-digit strikeout games by teams this week (including seven games where both teams did it) but not one by a single pitcher. Max Scherzer's 11-strikeout outing on Friday afternoon broke that string.
• In Wednesday's 17-8 eruption between the Giants and Rockies, there were four pitchers (Tim Lincecum, Jeremy Guthrie, Guillermo Mota, Jeremy Affeldt)who all gave up at least six hits and at least five runs. It's the first time that that has happened since July 17, 1998, when Seattle dropped an 18-5 score on the Royals at the Kingdome.(It is also very intriguing that, in that game, both teams posted a seven-run inning. Except I don't know of a good way to search line scores.)
  
  By the way, on their next two games on Thursday and Friday, the Giants promptly had two pitchers (Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain)carry no-hit bids into the sixth inning. The only team to have bids in consecutive games last season was also the Giants. That happened on May 8 and 10 by Ryan Vogelsong and Lincecum.
• The Orioles and Blue Jays combined to hit seven home runs in Baltimore's 7-5 victory on Friday. All were solo shots. It's the first game with seven-plus home runs that were all solo since a July 20, 2010 game at Camden Yards between the Rays and Orioles.
• There's always one guy left out.In the 10-9 "pitchers’ duel" between the Twins and Angels on Thursday, 17 of the 18 starters recorded at least one base hit. Howard Kendrick was the lone collar, going 0-for-4 plus a walk.
  
  It's the first nine-inning game this season to have 17 different starters record a base hit. There were three games last season where all 18 did.
• Minnesota got a four-hit game from Denard Span and three-hit games from Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham and Danny Valencia. It's the first time the Twins have had four players with three hits, including at least one with four, since they dropped a 20-1 score on the White Sox on May 21, 2009.

The final March edition of the Baseball Today podcast was a winner as Mark Simon and I waxed poetic with our National League preview, a few ridiculous questions and other fun!

1. We’ve got different teams representing the NL in this season’s World Series, and neither is a stranger to October baseball. But what’s the theme of the NL? Is parity a good thing?

2. Is acquiring Bobby Abreu a good thing? While I can’t possibly understand Cleveland’s possible interest in the one-time OBP machine, Mark takes a different angle.

3. All baseball fans should know the unbridled joy when their favorite team signs Juan Pierre. #Sarcasm. Hey, I mock because I care.

4. Mark and I discuss our recent defensive runs saved draft, which was a blast and we’ll follow throughout the season. No, really, we did it and SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield wishes he had!

5. Among the topics in email was how the Rays will treat James Shields and B.J. Upton, John Olerud’s batting helmet and what happens to a pitcher after he allows a home run on the first pitch of the game! We have answers!

So download and listen to a packed Friday episode of the Baseball Today podcast, and return with us on Monday as we get you ready for a huge week of relevant baseball!

In 2011, the Tampa Bay Rays won 91 games, with that 91st win serving as one of the more memorable in baseball history.

They scored 707 runs and allowed 614, which projects to ... 91 wins. So they hit that win-loss record on the head. What can we project for 2012? Let's do a position-by-position analysis.

Catcher: Jose Molina
John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach and assorted backups hit .194/.274/.333 in 2011, so of course the Rays brought in Jose Molina -- for his defense. Molina turns 37 in June and has never batted 300 times in a season, so how much he actually ends up playing remains to be seen. Robinson Chirinos, Jose Labatan and Stephen Vogt are battling for the backup. Offensively, this crew may not be much of an improvement; I'll say an additional seven runs over the 45 runs created a year ago. More on Molina's defense later.

First base: Carlos Pena
Casey Kotchman didn't score or drive in many runs but did get on base (.378) so at least he wasn't a rally killer. Rays first basemen created about 83 runs. Carlos Pena takes over and even hitting .225 with the Cubs he created about 86 runs. Projection systems are calling for a slight decline for Pena as he moves to Tampa. Give him 75 runs plus a few more from his backups and I'll call this one a wash.

Second base: Ben Zobrist
In his three seasons as a regular, Zobrist has been all over the place: a .948 OPS in 2009, .699 in 2010, .822 in 2011. He created about 100 runs in 2011. With weight given to that 2010 performance he's projected to decline a bit. Minus nine runs.

Third base: Evan Longoria
Longoria missed most of April with an oblique strain and then posted a career-low .850 OPS despite mashing 31 home runs in 483 at-bats. Rays third basemen created about 95 runs (85 by Longoria). With an expected spike in his BABIP (.239 in 2011), Longoria's numbers should improve across the board. Plus 15 runs.

Shortstop: Sean Rodriguez/Reid Brignac/Elliot Johnson
Another position where the Rays received little production: A collective .193/.256/.282, good for 35 runs created. Amazing that Tampa made the playoffs with two positions hitting under .200. The production can only improve, although how much depends on who gets the playing time. Brignac has the best glove so will get another chance. ZiPS projects a .239/.281/.338 batting line. Not great, but still better. Overall, let's say an improvement of 12 runs.

Left field; Desmond Jennings
This was supposed to be Johnny Damon's position a year ago but he ended up as the DH after Manny Ramirez flunked out. Sam Fuld got most of the playing time early on before yielding to Jennings. Overall, the Rays got 85 runs from left field. ZiPS is pessimistic about Jennings, projecting a .259/.339/.392 line, which is about 83 runs over 670 plate appearances. Other systems project slightly better numbers. Let's give the Rays five additional runs.

Center field: B.J. Upton
He could improve, I suppose, but logic dictates more of the same. No change.

Right field: Matt Joyce
It will be interesting to see if Joe Maddon gives Joyce a chance to play full-time against left-handers this year or if he'll run Zobrist out to right field against southpaws. Joyce cooled off after his All-Star first half. He should put up similar overall numbers. No change.

Designated hitter: Luke Scott
Damon and assorted friends produced about 87 runs. If Scott matches his 2010 numbers with the Orioles (.284/.368/.535) he'll be a big step up. But those were also his career-best numbers and he'll be 34 in June. I see only a slight improvement of three runs.

Let's compare the 2011 rotation to projected numbers for 2012, cribbed from various projection systems.



2011: 162 starts, 1058 innings, 438 runs
2012: 155 starts, 995 innings, 430 runs

We'll add in the seven missing starts at 42 innings and 20 runs allowed (4.3 per nine innings), bringing the 2012 totals to 1037 innings and 450 runs allowed. That's 20 runs more than 2011 in slightly fewer innings. Is that fair? The projection systems are understandably not completely bullish on James Shields. While he had a 2.82 ERA in 2011, he's also a pitcher with a 3.96 career ERA. His .258 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was eighth-lowest among starters; and while Tampa's defense was arguably the best in baseball, they've had a good defense in previous seasons and Shields' BABIPs didn't approach .258. I'm a little surprised the systems don't foresee a better year from Price. In 2010, he had a 2.72 ERA and 3.42 FIP (fielding independent ERA); in 2011, a 3.49 ERA and 3.32 FIP, albeit with a much better SO/BB ratio. Bill Baer wrote about Hellickson and the reason he's projected to not match the sterling 2.95 ERA he posted as a rookie. As for Moore, the projection systems are conservative by nature so they're not going to match the lofty expectation fans have. It certainly wouldn't be shocking to see Moore post a sub-3.00 ERA over 30 starts. It's also not fair to expect that.

One other issue: Jeff Niemann is actually projected to be better than Wade Davis. I would suggest that if Davis does allow 4.7 runs per nine innings -- not awful, mind you -- Niemann will get a shot at some point. In other words, I think the Davis slot will be slightly better, either because he pitches better or Niemann gets some starts. So I do think it's fair to knock a few runs off the overall total. For now, let's say the rotation allows 15 more runs than a year ago. But more on that in a minute.

The Tampa bullpen in 2011 only had to pitch 391 innings, fewest in the AL. It posted a 3.73 ERA ERA, sixth in the league, allowing 176 runs. I'm slightly skeptical the pen will be as good, but they do have a variety of options, including using Davis or Niemann in a prominent role. I'm going to say no change for the bullpen, other than adding an additional 21 innings and nine additional runs allowed.

So that brings the totals to:

Offense: +33 runs scored, for a new total of 740 runs scored
Pitching: +24 runs allowed, for a new total of 638 runs allowed

We mentioned Jose Molina's defense earlier. Overall, the 2011 Rays easily rated as baseball's best defensive squad, 25 runs better than the No. 2 team, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved. The major changes are Pena for Kotchman at first (both rated about league average) and Molina at catcher. Molina's added value comes in his ability to frame pitches, which studies indicate he's one of the best in the majors at -- maybe as much as 15 to 20 runs over an average catcher. We'll be conservative and subtract 10 runs off the defensive ledger. The rest of the defense should be similar.

So we now get:

Offense: 740 runs scored
Defense: 628 runs allowed

That creates an expected winning percentage of .575 -- or 93 wins.

OK, back to the pitching for a final word. Let's be slightly more optimistic. Let's take 10 runs off the totals for Shields, Price, Hellickson and Moore -- an additional 40 fewer runs allowed. It's certainly a reasonable proposition. This now gives the Rays 588 runs allowed and .604 winning percentage.

Which translates to 98 wins.

Of course, it's not quite that simple. This little analysis doesn't factor in everything -- the change in the quality of divisional opponents, for example. But one reason I like the Rays to beat their Vegas over/under line of 87.5 wins is that as a young team they're a pretty safe team to project. Injuries shouldn't be a major factor. They have depth in the rotation if somebody does go down. Yes, there is a little uncertainty in the bullpen and catcher and shortstop could still end up as offensive black holes, but this looks like a playoff team to me.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

Driving in to work today, I heard MLB Network Radio interview Tampa Bay Rays pitcher James Shields. He was asked about the team signing Jose Molina and Shields mentioned the Rays haven't really had a veteran catcher in a long time and how Molina is regarded as one of the best receivers in the game.

Thanks to the Pitchf/x data that is now available, smart people who are geniuses with a spreadsheet can attempt to study this kind of stuff. Mike Fast, who wrote for Baseball Prospectus, turned his ability to analyze Pitchf/x data into a job with the Houston Astros. BP just hired another writer named Max Marchi, who also crunches the Pitchf/x numbers.

Anyway, Max wrote a piece on Molina a few days ago for BP, breaking down Molina's ability on blocking pitches, controlling the running game, fielding bunts and batted balls and framing pitches.

Molina rated poorly in blocking pitches, very good at controlling the running game (from 2008 to 2011, only brother Yadier Molina saved more runs, according to Max's methods) and a tick above average in fielding batted balls.

But the big area of Molina's value comes in the art of framing pitches. In fact, that ability may be so important that if you believe the numbers, framing pitches has to be considered the new hidden, cost-effective gem in player evaluation. Since 2008, Max reports that Molina has saved 62.8 runs framing pitches, third-best in the majors behind Brian McCann (79.3) and Russell Martin (70.0).

What does that mean? Well, consider the following list of hitters and how many runs better than an average hitter they've been since 2008, from Baseball-Reference.com: Troy Tulowitzki (+71), Robinson Cano (+68), Justin Upton (+61), Ian Kinsler (+56), Curtis Granderson (+54). And remember -- Molina has only been a part-time player. He's caught 1,937.1 innings over those four seasons compared to McCann's 4,414.2 and Martin's 4,274.2. If we extrapolate Molina's runs saved to McCann's playing time, we get 143 runs saved, or about 35.8 runs per season. That's about the same number of runs as Albert Pujols contributed with the bat in 2011 compared to an average hitter.

Is that really believable? One way to check the findings is to compare the runs scored while Molina was catching compared to his teammates. Yes, this method is imperfect -- some catchers may only catch certain pitchers, a couple of big blowouts can influence the results and so on. But if Molina is really this good, something should show up in the data.

Check the chart to the right, which traces the past four seasons. This basic method also confirms that Molina is doing something right behind the plate -- he's "allowed" 4.08 runs per nine innings while his teammates have allowed 4.89. (Although that gap is helped created by the fact that John Buck and Jorge Posada rate as two of the poorest pitch-framers.)

It's funny; managers talk all the time about the importance of a good defensive catcher. Of course, they don't always back this up on the field. When Posada returned from injury in 2009 after missing most of the 2008 season, Joe Girardi still installed him as the regular catcher ahead of Molina. Angels manager Mike Scioscia did back this up when the club jettisoned Mike Napoli after the 2010 season. In Mike Fast's study published on Baseball Prospectus last September, Jeff Mathis rated plus-19 runs in framing pitches since 2007 while Napoli rated minus-24. Scioscia didn't like Napoli's defense; of course, that difference of a few runs over the course of one season wasn't large enough to make up for Napoli's advantage with the bat.

As for Molina, he's not much of a hitter either, thus his status as a career backup. But the Rays definitely know his value behind the plate. This wasn't just a random signing of a veteran catcher with great leadership skills. Andrew Friedman and the stat-crunchers in Tampa Bay's front office know what they're getting. And it's not like the Rays got offense from their catchers last season; they made the playoffs even though their catchers hit .194 with a .274 OBP.

Molina turns 37 in June and has played more than 78 games just once in his career, so it remains to be seen how he'll hold up if he's expected to catch 110 games or so. The Rays already have a pretty good pitching staff, so it also remains to be seen how much better Molina can make it. (The Rays were eighth in the AL in walks allowed, however.) It remains to be seen if pitch framing is the new undervalued asset and whether Jose Molina's glove is really equal to Robinson Cano's bat.

If it is, it won't be undervalued for long. Maybe in a few years the best pitch-framers will be in high demand and receive commensurate contracts. Could we see the day of the $10 million catcher who hits .223?

The Tampa Bay Rays have done it again.

Already owners of the most team-friendly contract in the game -- Evan Longoria's nine-year contract that runs through 2016 at the below-bargain basement sum of $42 million for the next five seasons -- Jerry Crasnick is reporting the Rays have agreed with rookie left-hander Matt Moore on an eight-year deal.

While pitchers are more risky than position players, if Moore reaches his potential and stays healthy, the deal has a chance to be ranked alongside Longoria's as the best in the game for a club. Longoria is arguably the most valuable asset in the game -- a star player who won't reach double-digit millions in salary until 2015 (when he makes $11 million).

For Moore, he gets lifetime financial security despite having pitched just 19 innings in the major leagues. If he blows out his elbow and never pitches again, he's still set. And if he becomes a superstar? Well, he'll be a free agent in eight years.

How good is he? As teammate David Price just tweeted, on a scale of 1 to 10, Moore's stuff is a "12."

The Rays also have James Shields signed through 2014 (including team options of $9 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014). Ben Zobrist will make $4.6 million in 2012. Price will make $2.4 million.

This is how you compete with the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Rangers.

Well done, Tampa.

When fans think of Bobby Valentine, most will initially think of the time he tried to sneak back into the dugout wearing glasses and a fake mustache after getting ejected from a game. There will be plenty of talk about the perception that he's arrogant, a little aloof and craves the limelight too much. There will be talk that he hasn't managed in the major leagues since 2002 (although he did in Japan after that) and that his departure from the Mets was fueled in part by his disagreements with general manager Steve Phillips.

So the talk will mostly be about his personality. But what kind of manager was he? Let's look back at his career -- focusing mostly on his full seasons with the Mets from 1997 to 2002 -- to see what that may indicate about how he'll manage the Red Sox.

Will Carl Crawford hit leadoff?

With Jacoby Ellsbury's new power stroke, it may make sense to move him down in the order to get him more RBI opportunities; that would leave Crawford as a leadoff option. I don't see that. Even if Crawford bounces back, his on-base percentage is hardly ideal for a leadoff hitter and Valentine -- a guy who was using computers and studying sabermetrics back with the Rangers in the '80s -- craves a high OBP from his leadoff hitter.

Check out his leadoff hitters with the Mets:

1997: Lance Johnson/Brian McRae.
1998: Brian McRae/Tony Phillips -- McRae posted a career-high .360 OBP that year.
1999: Rickey Henderson.
2000: Ten different leadoff hitters, including Benny Agbayani 27 games.
2001: Used four guys at least 20 games, led by Joe McEwing's 44 games. Led off Agbayani 32 times.
2002: Roberto Alomar/Roger Cedeno.

The unconventional use of Agbayani, the rotund Hawaiian without much speed but in possession of good on-base skills, shows Valentine's preference for OBP. In 2002, with Cedeno failing to do the job, he used Alomar there. I see Crawford remaining lower in the order, with Ellsbury staying in the No. 1 spot.

Does he like the quick hook or does he let his starters stay in the game?

There's not really a lot of in-game strategy in the American League, especially with a team like the Red Sox that basically just looks to bash the ball. So the most important strategic elements for Valentine will be how he handles the rotation and bullpen. The 2011 Red Sox were 12th in the AL in average innings per start, but that was more a function of a lousy rotation than Terry Francona's itchy trigger finger.

Let's see where the Mets under Valentine ranked in average in innings per start among NL teams:

1997: 5th
1998: 4th
1999: 8th
2000: 4th
2001: 4th
2002: 5th

Nothing really unusual here, as the Mets usually had a solid rotation under Valentine. They ranked in the upper half of innings because he had decent pitchers.

He was a little more generous when it came to allowing his starters throw 100 to 119 pitches:

1997: 9th
1998: 7th
1999: 12th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 4th

What's interesting about the 2001 squad is that they actually allowed the fewest walks in the league, so the high pitch counts weren't the result of a staff that walked a lot of hitters. He had a veteran rotation that year -- Leiter, Kevin Appier, Glendon Rusch, Steve Trachsel, Rick Reed -- and let his starters work deeper into games. It will be interesting to see if Valentine allows Jon Lester and Josh Beckett to reach the century mark more often than Francona did. In 2011, Lester had 22 100-pitch games -- tied for 25th-most among major league starters; Beckett had 21. Justin Verlander had 34, CC Sabathia 31, and other top AL pitchers like James Shields, David Price, Felix Hernandez, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren and Jered Weaver were all in the high 20s or low 30s.

Does he like an experienced closer?

In other words, would he be comfortable with Daniel Bard in the ninth inning? With the Mets, he initially had John Franco. The team acquired Armando Benitez in 1999 and when Franco went down with an injury in early July, Benitez took over as closer; when Franco returned, Benitez kept the closer job. As the Rangers' manager from 1985 to 1992, he had a different closer every year early on, before the club turned starter Jeff Russell into a successful closer in 1989. Hard to read too much into this, although both Russell and Bard throw hard. My guess is this becomes more of a front-office decision (do they sign Ryan Madson?), but that Valentine would have no problem making Bard his closer.

Does he like strikeout pitchers or guys who throw strikes?

With the Rangers, Valentine (and pitching coach Tom House) were obsessed with guys who threw hard. They had Bobby Witt, Jose Guzman, Edwin Correa, Nolan Ryan, Mitch Williams and others. Ryan had mostly refined his control (for him) by the time he reached Texas, but the other four would have problems hitting a barn door placed 10 feet in front of them. His first four staffs all had the highest walk rate in the American League. His staffs with the Mets were better, and Valentine seemed less concerned with velocity -- guys like Reed, Bobby Jones and Rusch were more finesse-type pitchers who threw strikes.

Mets strikeout rate under Valentine:

1997: 13th
1998: 7th
1999: 4th
2000: 3rd
2001: 5th
2002: 5th

Mets walk rate under Valentine:

1997: 2nd
1998: 7th
1999: 8th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 5th


Does he like a set lineup?

During his years with the Mets, Valentine always had a set infield, but remarkably never had one outfielder start 100 games at one position more than once. His machinations out there were pretty remarkable and show the willingness to be flexible and mix and match players as needed. Now, with the Red Sox he won't have same issue, with Ellsbury and Crawford playing every day, but it certainly suggests he'd be comfortable with a platoon in right field.

Here's the list of outfielders who started 100 games in a season at the same position with the Mets under Valentine:

1997: Bernard Gilkey, LF, 134
1998: Brian McRae, CF, 144
1999: Rickey Henderson, LF, 113
2000: Jay Payton, CF, 124; Derek Bell, RF, 136
2001: None
2002: Roger Cedeno, LF, 125; Jeromy Burnitz, RF, 131

The big issue here is how he handles Crawford, especially if he struggles to hit left-handers again (.195 in 2011). Would he consider benching Crawford against lefties, or at least the tough lefties?


Does he like young players?

With the Mets, he mostly had a veteran lineup. He did give Agbayani an opportunity, broke in Payton and Timo Perez, and gave Cedeno his first chance to play every day. With the Rangers, he broke in position players like Ruben Sierra, Oddibe McDowell, Steve Buechele, Pete Incaviglia, Jerry Browne, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez and Dean Palmer. Again, this might be more of a front-office decision, but I'd say Valentine would give youngsters like Josh Reddick and Ryan Lavarnway an opportunity to play regularly.

Valentine's reputation with the Mets was one of being prepared and being tactically smart with his in-game moves. He had to do more with the Mets than he'll have to with the Red Sox, especially considering he was often platooning at one or two outfield spots. He trusted his veteran starters to go deep into games. In short, there's nothing radically unconventional about Valentine's managerial philosophy. Of course, he last managed in the majors 10 years ago and his biggest challenge won't necessarily be strategy, but getting Crawford to rebound, getting his older players in better shape, and rebuilding Bard's confidence.

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched, WHIP and hits per nine innings. He threw a no-hitter, had 16 starts in which he allowed one run or no runs and didn’t lose a game from mid-June through the end of the regular season. To nobody's surprise, he won his first Cy Young Award on Tuesday, becoming the first Tigers pitcher to win since reliever Willie Hernandez in 1984.

A few will argue for CC Sabathia. Indeed, here are the voting results from the SweetSpot Network bloggers (seven points for first, four for second, three for third; the real vote also awards two points for fourth and one for fifth):

Justin Verlander, Tigers: 169 points (23 first-place votes)
CC Sabathia, Yankees: 91 points (2)
Jered Weaver, Angels: 65 points
Dan Haren, Angels: 15 points
James Shields, Rays: 10 points

The basic case for Sabathia rests on that he pitched in a tougher division in a tougher park while allowing fewer home runs (24 for Verlander, 17 for Sabathia) and suffering from bad luck while Verlander received plenty of good fortune. I don’t quite buy it. Verlander allowed 14 fewer runs while pitching 14 more innings. Although Yankee Stadium is a good hitters' park, it favors left-handed batters over right-handers, so Sabathia wouldn’t necessarily face the same disadvantage as a right-handed pitcher. (Indeed, he allowed a .618 OPS at home, .710 on the road.) Comerica Park, despite its big dimensions to center field, actually plays as a slight hitters' park, according to Baseball-Reference's park factors. Verlander allowed a .547 OPS at home, .563 on the road.

As for tougher competition, that part is true. Against the top four offensive teams in the AL (Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Tigers), Sabathia made 10 starts, Verlander five. Against the bottom four offenses (Mariners, Twins, Athletics, White Sox), Sabathia made seven starts, Verlander 13. It's an important consideration, but perhaps it's also important to note that Sabathia didn't step it up against the best teams: He went 1-4, 6.39 ERA against Boston; he allowed 21 baserunners in 13 innings against Detroit; he was 2-0 against Texas in three starts but with a 5.14 ERA. In his limited action against the best hitting teams, Verlander posted a 2.70 ERA.

Finally, there is the matter of Verlander's allowing a .236 average on balls in play and Sabathia a .318 mark. Verlander's BABIP was second-lowest among starters (behind Jeremy Hellickson's .223), while Sabathia's was one of the worst. Sabathia allowed 230 hits in 985 plate appearances; Verlander allowed 174 in 969. That's a difference of 56 hits that Sabathia supporters have to account for via bad luck or good luck -- or about one hit per game per pitcher. For what it's worth, Baseball Info Solutions rated each team's overall defense roughly the same -- the Yankees as 15 runs below average, the Tigers as 18 runs below average.

Anyway, when trying to digest all these numbers, one little one jumped out at me: When Verlander went to a 2-0 count -- when hitters usually thrive -- he held opponents to a .202 average with just one home run in 89 at-bats, with 24 strikeouts and 24 walks. When Sabathia went to a 2-0 count, opponents hit .316 (24-for-76) with 32 walks and 16 strikeouts. Another big difference: When batters put a 1-0 pitch in play, they hit .241 off Verlander (13-for-54) but .403 off Sabathia (29-for-72). Isn't it possible that Sabathia more often threw hittable pitches on that count, trying to avoid that 2-0 hole?

My ballot
1. Justin Verlander
2. CC Sabathia
3. Jered Weaver
4. James Shields
5. C.J. Wilson

* * * *

At some point early in the season, I said something to Mark Simon on the Baseball Today podcast along the lines of "Will Verlander ever put it all together?" My point was that he had entered the season with a career 3.81 ERA; he had finished fifth in the 2007 Cy Young vote and third in the 2009 Cy Young vote, but he'd never had that knockout season, never had an ERA below 3.00.

He certainly delivered on that front. How historic was his season?

In the most basic level of analysis -- preventing runs -- not that historic. He prevented 47 fewer runs than the average 2011 American League pitcher would for his workload, which ranks 51st since 1961. The top 10: Pedro Martinez, 2000 (79); Roger Clemens, 1997 (74); Pedro Martinez, 1999 (67); Dwight Gooden, 1985 (63); Randy Johnson, 1999 (62); Greg Maddux, 1995 (62); Steve Carlton, 1972 (61); Sandy Koufax, 1966 (60); Bob Gibson, 1968 (60); Ron Guidry, 1978 (59).

Of course, not all runs are created equal. A run in low-scoring 1968 was worth more than a run in high-scoring 1999. That's where a stat like WAR (wins above replacement) comes in, as it adjusts for era and home park. On Baseball-Reference, Verlander moves up to 32nd since 1961. However, most of the leaders on that list come from the 1960s and '70s, when pitchers threw more innings and made more starts; if you pitched more, you could accumlate more value. If we change the cutoff date to 1990, Verlander jumps up higher on the WAR list: seventh (tied with 1993 Jose Rijo), behind only 1997 Clemens, 2000 Martinez, 1990 Clemens, 2009 Zack Greinke, 2002 Johnson and 1995 Maddux.

Verlander's dominance manifested itself in other ways as well: Since 1990, the only AL pitchers to allow a lower OPS were Martinez in 1999 and 2000 and Nolan Ryan in 1991. Since 1990, only five times has a starter allowed a lower batting average than Verlander's .192 mark -- Martinez twice, Ryan twice and Hideo Nomo.

In the end, maybe Verlander's season isn't quite Pantheon level -- but it was an amazing run, probably one of the top 10 pitcher seasons of the past 20 years.

I don't know about you, but I can't wait for the encore.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

After watching the Texas Rangers get shut down in the first game of the series by Matt Moore, you’d be forgiven if you thought a statement would be made in the second match. The question was whether it would be the Tampa Bay Rays or the Rangers making it.

Either James Shields was going to add an "amen" to Moore’s dominant first game -- and make this series about how the Rays’ young, talented staff made them the team nobody wanted to face -- or the Rangers were going show that they had one of the league’s best offenses during the regular season.

That’s the problem if you played the expectations game. The Rangers reminded everyone that the Rays aren’t the only team armed with young pitching talent; as Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando held Tampa Bay to three runs through six innings. Holland wasn’t dominant, but he dodged a big bullet early in the first by getting out of a bases-loaded situation with a lone run scored. He’d allow a two-run homer to Matt Joyce in the top of the fourth.

In contrast, “Big Game James” put up big numbers ... but not the good kind. Maybe some nicknames get handed out a little too quickly, but after getting lit up by the Rangers a second time in two October meetings, Shields’ moniker is in danger of becoming an oxymoron. The Rangers delivered in the fourth by planting a five-spot on the scoreboard. Shields’ problems with control gave them the opportunity. He hit Elvis Andrus to lead off the inning and, two singles later, hit Adrian Beltre to score the Rangers’ first run of the series. Shields left something out over the plate on Mike Napoli’s game-tying single, then missed the plate again on a strikeout/wild pitch play against David Murphy that plated an alert Beltre from third. This was certainly a big game, but it was one without a big-game performance from Shields.

After tacking on a pair of insurance runs in the sixth, and with the Rangers up by four at home with three innings to play, you got another reminder of how you can lose the expectations game. The Rangers’ bullpen was stocked so well -- with veteran set-up men Koji Uehara, Mike Adams and Mike Gonzalez brought in to help Neftali Feliz hold the fort -- surely this was where all the moves general manager Jon Daniels made during the season would pay off.

However, the Rays provided another upset. Perhaps not quite as epic as the Game 1 massacre, but it was reminder that Texas is not that much better equipped to score runs than the Rays, especially not in this ballpark. Uehara came in for the seventh, put two men aboard, and then surrendered a three-run homer off the bat of Evan Longoria. The Rangers may have averaged 5.3 runs per game compared to the Rays’ 4.4 in 2011, but the Rangers play in the easiest place to score runs in baseball, while the Trop is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Adjust for the ballpark differences, and you have a matchup between two top-ten offenses. Good pitching might stop good hitting, but two good offenses in this park adds up to runs.

So Uehara got torched in the inning he was supposed to handle, but he was challenged by some of the Rays’ best bats. Happily for the Rangers, Adams held the eighth and Feliz came in to deliver the save in the ninth. The duo kept the final 8-6 slugfest from becoming any more exciting and the Rangers knotted up the series.

Where does this leave us as the series moves to St. Petersburg? After scoring 15 runs in two games, the Rays have silenced those who might wonder how they would do on offense. The Rangers can take some satisfaction knowing that Holland stepped up and Adams and Feliz shut the door. But with Shields’ reputation for big-game performance in tatters and Uehara smoked in the seventh, the last three games of the series figure to be every bit as much fun. As long as you check your expectations at the door.


Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

We have a few days in the regular season, but before we got caught up in the final hours of the wild-card races and playoff previews, here's my 2011 SweetSpot American League All-Star team.

Catcher: Alex Avila, Tigers (.295/.388/.509, 19 HR, 78 RBI). Maybe the most surprising season in the majors this year, considering he hit .228 last year as a rookie. Avila hit .311 in April and other than a one-RBI July, has kept hitting all season. He ranks sixth in the AL in on-base percentage, 12th in slugging and has thrown 32 percent of base stealers.

First base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.341/.447/.579, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 107 R). Adrian Gonzalez got most of the attention, but it's now clear that Cabrera had the better year with the bat. Cabrera has created more runs, has a higher on-base percentage (thanks to 40 more walks) and a higher slugging percentage. Gonzalez has a few more RBIs, which is strictly a function of having better hitters in front of him. Cabrera is hitting .381 with runners on base and .397 with runners in scoring position.

Second base: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox (.302/.381/.467, 20 HR, 88 RBI, 101 R, 26 SB). Yankee fans will cry foul, but Pedroia's big edge in OBP (.381 to .351) and even bigger edge with the glove, makes him the selection.

Third base: Evan Longoria, Rays (.240/.345/.482, 29 HR, 95 RBI). Longoria has a chance for 100 RBIs despite missing most of April with a strained oblique. While the batting average is down, the power numbers are there and he owns a terrific glove. So does Adrian Beltre, who is also hitting .293 with 30 home runs, but Beltre has the advantage of a hitter-friendly home park; he's hitting .265 on the road and 23 of his 30 home runs have come at home.

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians (.273/.333/.463, 25 HR, 92 RBI). The toughest call on the board as Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, Yunel Escobar, Alexei Ramirez, Erick Aybar and Elvis Andrus all have their supporters and decent claims to best in the league. Cabrera's defense isn't highly regarded by the advanced metrics, but he had a terrific season at the bat, gives you more on the base paths than Peralta, and hit well with runners in scoring position -- .312/.393/.529.

Outfield: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (.304/.447/.615, 43 HR, 107 RBI, 105 R). Bautista's OPS at home: 1.062. On the road: 1.062.

Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (.322/.377/.551, 31 HR, 103 RBI, 117 R, 38 SB). Obviously, nobody saw this coming. A remarkable all-around season, the best by a Red Sox center fielder since Fred Lynn in 1979.

Outfield: Curtis Granderson, Yankees (.266/.368/.561, 41 HR, 119 RBI, 135 runs). He's tailed off in September (.221, three home runs), costing him a chance to become just the third player since World War II to score 150 runs in a season, but he remains in the thick of the MVP discussion.

Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.307/.397/.557, 29 HR, 96 RBI). Michael Young, with his .338 average and 104 RBIs, has been enormously valuable to the Rangers, especially with his ability to fill in at first, second and third bases. But for pure offensive numbers, Ortiz is the guy.

Starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, Tigers (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 251 IP, 174 H, 57 BB, 250 SO). Yes, wins aren't everything, but he had the most wins in the American League since Bob Welch in 1990.

Starting pitcher: Jered Weaver, Angels (18-8, 2.41 ERA, 235.2 IP, 182 H, 56 BB, 198 SO). Here's how he's been: In one less start than Verlander, he's allowed eight fewer runs.

Starting pitcher: James Shields, Rays (15-12, 2.84 ERA, 240.2 IP, 189 H, 62 BB, 221 SO). Brought back the complete game: His 11 were the most in the AL since 1993. Saddled with poor run support, he didn't win a single game all season when he allowed more than two runs.

Starting pitcher: C.J. Wilson, Rangers (16-7, 2.97 ERA, 221.1 IP, 189 H, 72 BB, 206 SO). He hits the free-agent market this winter and general managers would be salivating to see what he could outside of the Ballpark -- he had a 2.34 ERA on the road.

Starting pitcher: CC Sabathia, Yankees (19-8, 3.00 ERA, 237.1 IP, 230 H, 61 BB, 230 SO). The big man may have had his best season. Now the pressure is on to repeat his 2009 postseason performance.

Setup guy: David Robertson, Yankees (4-0, 34 holds, 1.09 ERA). The Yanks paid big bucks for Rafael Soriano in the offseason, but he went down and Robertson never gave up the big hit as Mariano Rivera's setup guy, allowing just nine runs in 66 innings. He gave up just one home run while fanning 99.

Closer: Jose Valverde, Tigers (2-4, 47 saves, 2.30 ERA). Rivera has a lower ERA and better WHIP, but he's blown fives while Valverde was 47-for-47 in save opportunities. It's not always pretty, but he's you can't deny the job he's done.

Player of the Year: Justin Verlander. He leads the AL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings, WHIP, quality starts, opponents' batting average, opponents' on-base percentage and opponents' slugging percentage. He's been the most electrifying performer in the league. More than any other player in the AL, it's been his season.

The Tampa Bay Rays faced their biggest remaining pitching challenge on paper Saturday night with Toronto Blue Jays ace Ricky Romero and his 2.98 ERA taking the hill against them. Knowing that the Boston Red Sox had already been tattooed by a score of 9-1 in Yankee Stadium no doubt eased the burden of facing Romero and the Jays, but the Rays stepped up with a huge 6-2 win to pull within a game and a half of the Red Sox in the American League wild-card race, as Johnny Damon’s eighth-inning home run expanded their one-run lead to a comfortable margin.

The game was a reversal of an unfortunate trend for Tampa Bay whereby the Rays kept dropping huge opportunities to draw closer to the Red Sox. They weren’t able to take advantage of the Sox dropping three out of four to the Baltimore Orioles, as they posted the same record in a four-game set against the Yankees. Their competition was much tougher than Baltimore, but they had both James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson throwing in that series, yet it was rookie phenom Matt Moore who bailed them out with a fourth-game win in his first big league start.

The odds are still stacked against the Rays by virtue of the fact they are trailing with four games left (five for the Red Sox, including a day-night doubleheader Sunday), but they have a discernible advantage with their starting pitching the rest of the way. This should come as no surprise, as pitching is the only reason they are in this race in the first place. Their 684 runs scored are just one better than the lowly Orioles and 168 behind the powerful Red Sox. However, their 600 runs allowed is an American League-best -- made more impressive by the fact that they have to face Sox and Yanks 18 times apiece and they don’t get to face their own offense at any point during the season.

Sunday’s finale against the Blue Jays pits Wade Davis against Brett Cecil and should be the only one of the remaining games where the opposing hurler is anything close to equal to what the Rays are putting on the mound. Davis has faced the Blue Jays four times this year with mixed results. His composite numbers yield a 4.90 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 26 innings of work thanks in large part to a six earned-run outing in just 4 1/3 innings on Aug. 29 in Toronto. On one hand, he has had success against the Jays in more starts than not (3.36 ERA in the three starts before that bad game), but on the other hand his most recent effort was his worst and it was just a month ago.

While it’s true that wins count the same no matter when they come, the Rays essentially need to win all four games on their schedule, but a win Sunday would be especially nice because the Red Sox have that doubleheader and there could be a major momentum shift one way or another depending on the outcome of Sunday’s three games. As a stats-oriented baseball fan, I read a lot of stuff that eschews any notion of momentum, but that seems to sometimes forget that these games are played by human beings, not automatons programmed to achieve their peak potential on a daily basis. This isn’t an anti-stats screed on any level, just an acknowledgment of the fact that a Rays win on Sunday afternoon paired with a Red Sox split or pair of losses would be a colossal boost for the Rays. The first outcome would leave the Rays down by one, the second with the teams tied with three games to play.

Even with the playoff fate of their hated rival on the line and their own playoff fate sealed, the Yankees aren’t going to lay down to the Rays in the season’s final series, but CC Sabathia is done pitching for the regular season, while the Rays have their three best established hurlers going in Shields, Hellickson and David Price. The Yankees are throwing Phil Hughes, Bartolo Colon and TBD.

Hughes has looked sharp in his past two starts (albeit against Baltimore and Seattle), but he draws Shields, who has been masterful against the Yankees this year (and everybody else) with a 2.40 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 30 innings across four starts. However, “Big Game” James is just 1-3 in those outings thanks to a combined five runs of support.

Meanwhile, Colon was trounced in the Moore game on Thursday and has really labored the past two months (5.08 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 62 innings). He will square off against Hellickson, who has a pair of seven IP, two-run outings against the Yankees sandwiched by a flameout start of four earned runs in the Bronx in August.

It won’t really matter who Price faces because it won’t be Sabathia, meaning advantage Rays. Price has been a mixed bag against the Yankees with two great starts and two poor ones resulting in a composite 4.26 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 25 innings, but he thrives on big situations against the best teams. He has a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 149 innings against teams with winning records this year. If Wednesday's game has significance, Price bringing his best stuff will be the least of Tampa Bay’s concerns.

Though they are fighting for a berth into the real playoffs, make no mistake that the Rays are in the playoffs already. They can ill afford to lose again the rest of the way and, while the Red Sox are the targets, the Rays also need to be mindful of the Angels, who are still trying to make this a three-team race over the next four days. Sunday sets the tone for the final series of all three teams since Boston plays two games; if it loses both, the Rays become the favorite due to their significant pitching advantage in the season’s final series.

Not only will the Rays hold the advantage with all three starting pitching matchups in their final series, but they still have Moore -- who wasn’t the least bit intimidated by the Yankees as he fanned 11 and shut them out for five innings -- on hand should they need him in a key spot out of the bullpen. Their offense, an Achilles heel for most of the season, is peaking at the right time with 4.7 runs per game in September, well above its 4.3 average for the season.

As we saw a previously race-less finish develop into a dogfight for the AL wild card, it is hard not to continually ask what would have happened if the Rays had removed Sam Fuld and his .302 wOBA for Desmond Jennings much sooner than July 23.

We can wonder and second-guess the decision, but it’s better to focus on the fact that they still have a real chance at this despite that egregious error, even while acknowledging that there is no excuse for leaving Jennings down that long. There is enough negativity in baseball (whether on blogs, major websites or Twitter) that sometimes it clouds the greatness in the game, like an amazing down-to-the-wire race between David (with his $42 million payroll) and Goliath (shelling out $164 million). With four days left on the schedule, sit back and enjoy this one.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Paul Sporer writes at Pitt Plank, the little piece of Piracy in the SweetSpot network.

It may not seem like it, but the Rays had to win. Heading into Friday, Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds had the Rays' chances of reaching the postseason at 3.9 percent. CoolStandings.com was a bit more optimistic, pegging their chances at 8.1 percent, still not very good odds. Unfortunately for the Rays, the amazing story of James Shields' 2011 season took on a darker narrative after Friday’s outcome. Shields struggled with his location all night, battled valiantly without his best stuff, but in the end could not stave off the Red Sox’s persistent offense. The second the game was over, the Rays’ postseason odds dropped from 8.1 percent to 3.1 percent according to CoolStandings.

The game in and of itself was amazing. Not that both teams played a crisp, clean game, or that there weren't some questionable calls by the umpiring crew, or that either starter had his best stuff. However, there was an electric playoff feel to every pitch, every swing and every play.

Shields allowed seven hits in seven innings of work while surrendering four runs, one of which was a blast over the Green Monster off the bat of Mike Aviles. As noted, Shields just couldn't find his command: He started up in the zone to the first two Red Sox batters, Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, and his poor location led to an Ellsbury leadoff double followed by a Pedroia RBI single. Shields adjusted down against Adrian Gonzalez, coaxing him to strike out swinging on a pitch outside the strike zone.

However, this extra-low location wouldn't play as well against the next batter, David Ortiz. A pitch in the dirt that got by catcher John Jaso allowed Pedroia to advance to second. Unlike Gonzalez, Ortiz laid off Shields’ low, out-of-zone offerings, forcing the count to 3-0 and forcing Shields to come down the middle with a fastball. Papi didn't miss it, lining an RBI single and pulling the Red Sox even with the Rays at 2-2 in the bottom of the first.

The lack of command would haunt Shields most of the night, though he pitched like a bulldog for as long as he could. Unfortunately for the Rays, "Big Game James" just couldn't come up big enough this time.

It's not as if the Rays didn't try everything they could to win the game. Leadoff hitter Desmond Jennings was on base four of his five plate appearances, stole two bases and scored two of the Rays’ three runs. Johnny Damon had three stolen bases and even Casey Kotchman got in on that action, swiping his second base of the season. Needless to say, the Rays knew that they could run on the combination of Josh Beckett and Jason Varitek. Jason Collette, BaseballProspectus.com writer and manager of DRaysBay.com, pointed out on Twitter that the Rays became only the 29th team in baseball history to steal seven bases and still lose the game. They had the seven steals, the big two-run home run by Evan Longoria in the first, and a starting pitcher who kept them in the game through seven innings, and yet they still could not find a way to plate that game-tying fourth run.

With the win, the Red Sox move their AL wild-card lead back to four games and chop their magic number down to nine with 12 games to play for both teams. At this point, if the Red Sox win just half of their remaining games, the Rays would have to win 10 of their final 12 in order to simply force a tie in the standings. Let's just say the Sox win only a quarter of their remaining 12 games; that would put them at 90 wins. The Rays would still have to win over half of their remaining games (seven of 12) to force a tie.

That may not seem like too much to overcome, as they've been playing well this month, but the schedule presents some big obstacles, mostly in the form of eight games against the first-place New York Yankees. Eight of the Rays’ final 12 games are against the team with the best record in the American League and the best run differential in all of baseball. Even before they get to the Yankees, they must defeat Red Sox co-ace Jon Lester on Saturday, though they have found success against Lester this season, pounding out eight earned runs and 18 hits in 18 innings, while winning two of the three games against him. I'm not saying that the Rays can't pull this off, but without a now-impossible sweep in Boston the odds are extremely stacked against them.

Even if the Rays fall short of their postseason goal, their season has to be viewed as a success. They are 16 games over .500 in baseball's toughest division and are 34-25 against AL East opponents. Plus, they've accomplished all that with what is by far the lowest payroll in the division. If nothing else, the Rays’ late charge against the Red Sox has made for some great September baseball, something we weren't sure was going to happen at the beginning of the month. I guess it’s another case of "It ain't over 'til it's over," but after Friday’s Red Sox win, the Rays’ glimmer of hope is fading by the day.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Charlie Saponara writes for Red Sox SweetSpot network blog, "Fire Brand of the AL." You can find all of his writing adventures by following on Twitter.

Our Stats & Info blog catalogs some of the amazing achievements this season by Cliff Lee, who threw his sixth shutout in Monday's victory: it's the most shutouts by a Phillies pitcher since Steve Carlton also threw six in 1982; he's only the fifth NL left-hander in 50 years to record at least six shutouts and 200 strikeouts; with a streak of 29 2/3 scoreless innings, he's the first pitcher to have two streaks that long in one season since Don Sutton in 1972.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's James Shields tossed another complete game -- his 11th, the most in the majors since Randy Johnson threw 12 in 1999. The only other pitcher since 2000 with at least 10 complete games and 200 strikeouts was CC Sabathia, during his 2007 seasons with the Indians and Brewers, and the last AL pitcher with at least 10 complete games and 200 strikeouts was Johnson in 1993 with the Mariners.

Shields hadn't tossed a complete game before this season since 2008 and has improved to 14-10 with a 2.77 ERA, a big improvement from his 5.18 ERA of 2010, a season in which he led the AL in hits, earned runs and home runs allowed. There is a faction of stat analysts who argue that Shields is the same pitcher as last year -- that he was merely unlucky last year and lucky this year. Indeed, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is almost identical to a year ago: 3.80 in 2011 compared to 2010's 3.80. That means his xFIP -- "expected fielding independent pitching where home runs are calculated as 10.5 percent of fly balls induced" -- is similar to last year: 3.10 in 2011, 3.55 in 2010. Basically, since he allowed a .341 average on balls in play last year, he was "unlucky." His .261 average on balls in play this year means he's been "lucky." Same thing with his decrease in home run rate, from 1.5 per nine innings to 0.9.

Except, of course, Shields isn't the same pitcher as 2010. He got criticized last year for throwing too many hittable fastballs. So this year he's throwing far fewer fastballs (about 9-10 percent fewer), more curveballs and a few more changeups. While his groundball rate is up, this new approach is most drastically seen in the results when batters put the first pitch in play: in 2010, they hit .438 with 11 home runs in 121 at-bats; in 2011, they're hitting .257 with five home runs in 113 at-bats. With two strikes, the varied approach has also made him more dominant: in 2010, batters hit .199 with 13 homers in 402 at-bats; in 2011, they're hitting .134 with six homers in 388 at-bats.

Pitchers change and adapt. Maybe Shields was a little unlucky last year. But he's a far better pitcher in 2011, and the complete games are just one component of that.

As for Lee, I feel he's also made some adjustments. Last year, he basically made the decision to never walk anybody. He issued only 18 walks in 28 starts. This year, he's walked more batters -- his walk rate has increased from 0.8 to 1.8 per nine innings -- but the new approach has resulted in more strikeouts and more dominating performances. He's now had 11 starts of at least seven innings where he isn't allowed a run. Since 1980, only two pitchers can match that: Dwight Gooden and John Tudor, both in 1985.

Lee has re-entered the crowded NL Cy Young picture, a group that includes teammates Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw and Ian Kennedy. Remarkably, Halladay hasn't thrown one shutout, and only Kershaw has thrown as many as two. In what should be a tight vote, those six shutouts could put Lee over the top.

This late in the year, it’s easy to start getting into who’s doing the best job in the more obscure areas, some of which wind up mattering an awful lot, and some of which are just interesting to know. Today’s quick take on statistical feats is on the pitchers who’ve done the best job to help throttle opponents’ running games. If you’re fond of past greats like Terry Mulholland, Andy Pettitte or Steve Carlton, these should be your heroes today:

Keeping the double play in order is useful enough as is, but additional benefits include keeping runners close to hinder their ability to take extra bases on balls in play. It’s a tactical skill that reflects a distinct difference in approach; some pitchers take this part of their job very seriously, others don’t focus on it as much, and not all of them have the benefit of strong-armed catchers. Seeing Buehrle here when his most regular receiver is the oft-criticized A.J. Pierzysnki should remind you of that, but seeing Weaver make this list serves notice that some guys just don't cut opponents slack in any phase of the game.

Shields’ performance is a breakthrough in the pickoffs department. While he’s always been good at containing the running game, his career total of pickoffs before this year was eight, making him more than worthy of a Dave Schoenfield post a few weeks back. He’s a long ways from Charlie Hough’s right-handed record of 73 (using B-Ref’s 1950 cutoff to make that determination), but the knuckleballer’s single-season mark of 14 is still in reach if runners aren’t careful.

It’s interesting to note that MLB’s leader in times an opponent was caught stealing while he was on the mound is Cleveland’s Justin Masterson with 14 baserunner kills in 25 attempts. Since he’s had to rely on Carlos Santana as his receiver far more often than the stronger-armed Lou Marson, you can give Masterson a big chunk of credit for six of the 15 attempts against Santana as well as a share for eight of 10 caught the third of the time he’s had Marson.

That said, there are pitchers who have been remarkably successful pitching despite their relative indifference of their baserunners. In this as in so many other ways, Nolan Ryan was in a class by himself by seeing a record 757 bases stolen against him in more than a thousand attempts, at a 75 percent success rate. That wasn’t merely a function of longevity, as Phil Niekro pitched just 18 more innings on his career, but allowed more than 300 fewer stolen bases while getting stolen off of at just a 67 percent clip.

More recent examples of pitchers who kept their focus on the men at the plate and less so the runners aboard include Hideo Nomo in 2001 (with 52 steals allowed in 63 attempts) and Chris Young for the Padres in 2007 with 44 steals with no one caught -- fairly unambiguous examples of hurlers with slow deliveries that inspired people to run on them. This year’s most permissive pitchers when it comes to let runners steal comprise a trio tied with minus-4 RsbP: the Braves’ Tommy Hanson (30-for-33 success on steals, no pickoffs), Boston’s John Lackey (27-for-30, no pickoffs) and the Dodgers’ Ted Lilly (29-for-31, a pickoff).

Tomorrow, we’ll get into the other half of batteries, and make our way around to hitting and pitching as well as fielding-related topics.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

At his peak, Johnny Bench was lethal at throwing out attempting basestealers, more than 40 percent every season from 1968 to 1978, twice peaking at 57 percent. Even more amazing is that since few guys even attempted to steal on Bench, that means only the very best stealers even tried.

But Bench was no James Shields, at least the 2011 version of Shields. The Tampa Bay right-hander allowed his first stolen base of the season the other night (to Kansas City's Eric Hosmer). That by itself isn't necessary unique -- since 1990, 27 pitchers have thrown at least 162 innings and allowed one stolen base in a season. Four have allowed zero -- and one of them was a right-hander (Chris Carpenter of the 2004 Cardinals; the other three were Jonathon Niese last season, Jarrod Washburn and Kenny Rogers).

What makes Shields' season pretty cool is that he's also picked off 10 guys. (I'm using data from Baseball-Reference.com). Throw in four caught stealings, and that makes baserunners 1-for-15 off Shields, if you add the caught stealings and pickoffs together.

Baseball-Reference has pickoff and pitcher stolen base data back to 1950. There have been 54-pitcher seasons with at least 10 pickoffs, but most of those are by left-handers. Knuckleballer Charlie Hough has the most by a right-hander with 14 in 1988, but he allowed 32 stolen bases that year.

Two guys famous for their pickoff moves were Terry Mulholland and Andy Pettitte. Indeed, Mulholland picked off 15 runners with the Phillies in 1992, while allowing just two steals in seven attempts. That's a CSPO (caught stealing/pickoff) score of minus-20. Mulholland never had more than seven pickoffs after that, mostly because runners just stood on first base; from 1992 until the rest of his career (more than 1,900 innings), he allowed just 14 stolen bases. Pettitte semi-balk move was questioned many times during his career and he picked off 101 runners, but didn't completely shut down the running game as he allowed 176 stolen bases (against 86 caught stealings).

One of the best recent CSPO seasons was Chris Capuano of the 2005 Brewers, when he had 12 pickoffs and basestealers were 2-for-11 off him, a CSPO score of minus-21.

From what I can gather, the best CSPO belongs to Jerry Garvin, a rookie left-hander for the expansion 1977 Blue Jays. He picked off 23 guys -- the record, at least since 1950 -- and basestealers went 10-for-29, giving him a CSPO score of minus-32. That number will hard to beat!

Garvin had a pretty good rookie season, going 10-18 on a terrible team but with a league-average 4.19 ERA and 12 complete games, all at age 21. He was named the left-handed pitcher on the Topps All-Rookie team.

Garvin wasn't overpowering and relied on a forkball as a rookie, while unsuccessfully trying to develop a slider or curve. The Toronto Glove and Mail wrote in 1978 that he was looking to "try a cut fastball this spring. For the southpaw Garvin, the pitch would move down and away from a left handed hitter." (Interesting mention of the cut fastball, showing it's not a recent development.)

The cut fastball didn't take and Garvin battled elbow injuries the rest of his career. Perhaps the 244 innings as a rookie had taken its toll. As he attempted to rebound in 1980, he talked about his pickoff move in another Globe and Mail story. "The move was so smooth that he frequently caught runners flat-footed, but so technically correct that rival managers never
complained," wrote Neil Campbell. "'It's a matter of timing,' said Garvin, who returned home to Salt Lake City to be with his family after his six weeks in Venezuela. 'My pickoff move takes work and practice, and I haven't been pitching enough to get it down pat.'"

Scrolling through the Lexis database, it's funny seeing the random mentions of Garvin in the Toronto newspaper. He's almost always referred to as the left-hander with the high leg kick and great pickoff off.

As for Shields, he's clearly taken his pickoff game to a new level this year, after allowing 10 steals last year with three pickoffs. Here's a story from May on Shields talking about his unusual move, with video highlight of one of his pickoffs.