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OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Not every move involves rosters: Some just involve putting your better assets to work. Case in point: Today’s lineup card for the Cleveland Indians, which featured Shin-Soo Choo batting leadoff, something Manny Acta started trying just yesterday.

Choo was followed by second baseman Jason Kipnis in his usual slot, then Asdrubal Cabrera, then Carlos Santana. If that sounds to you like every good Indians batter, stacked up in a row, you’d be right. But with Choo’s .362 OBP (pre-game) up front, it gave manager Manny Acta some big-inning potential, and when Minnesota's Jason Marquis got into trouble in the fifth, there was no easier out for him to get, and they cranked a trio of home runs before Ron Gardenhire could get him off the mound.

Admittedly, your best four up front is pretty much the definition of a short-sequence offense. But stacking all the good stuff up front is usually a better way to get a crooked number or two on the board, and then you can try to be cute with the assorted sidekicks in the bottom of the order: Jack Hannahan and Michael Brantley, Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon. Considering that it was a rare day off for Travis Hafner against a right-hander, though, that front-loaded lineup can at least go five deep, Choo to Kipnis to Cabrera to Pronk to Santana. That isn’t a bad place to start.

And while that back end might not be a good group, it’s worth remembering that the Indians aren’t married to any of them. Hannahan and Kotchman are defensive specialists who at the best of times get on base. But behind them, the Tribe has options: Lonnie Chisenhall’s slugging .562 at Columbus and ready to roll, while Matt LaPorta’s hammered 10 home runs as his teammate.

It’s the outfield where things aren’t happy. Damon’s utility as a source of OBP or power is now several seasons out of date, while Brantley’s marking time until he goes from ex-prospect to outright suspect and career fourth outfielder. And the Tribe doesn’t have a ready or ready-ish alternative in the upper levels among their outfielders; rather, they have the latest iteration of a story they’ve been putting children to sleep with for years: “Grady Sizemore will be back soon.” When your former center field star is the stuff of milk-carton legend, you know that you probably shouldn’t count on him as an in-season solution.

Which is what will make the weeks and months to come interesting to follow as far as the Tribe’s lineup cards are concerned. Will Brantley or Damon earn his keep? Will Sizemore actually return, and play well enough to consign one of the other two to the bench? Will Chisenhall or LaPorta get the call?

Or will Mark Shapiro simply deal for a corner bat worthy of the name before the end of July? Because that’s the thing that you can really wonder about: If you’re not getting offense out of first base or left field, that’s usually one of the easiest things to fix around the deadline, and without having to give away a top prospect. If Choo gets to be the Indians’ once and future leadoff man, then in addition to riding the benefits of that front-loaded lineup, you can stop excusing Damon or Brantley as guys who help at the top of the order, and start looking at how little they’re delivering on offense. Fix that, and the team the Tribe’s winning with now could be better still a deal later in August.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

We drown in numbers and statistics these days, but here's one that sums up the crumbling state of the Boston Red Sox quite eloquently: Following Josh Beckett's implosion on Thursday night, Red Sox starters have now allowed five-plus runs in 14 starts; Nationals starters have done so once.

Here's another way. Fifty-three American League starting pitchers are qualified for the AL ERA title. Here's where Boston's five starters rank:

32. Jon Lester (4.29)
38. Daniel Bard (4.83)
46. Felix Doubront (5.29)
51. Josh Beckett (5.97)
53. Clay Buchholz (9.09)

OK, ERA can be a little misleading early in the season. Here's where those five guys rank among AL starters in strikeout/walk ratio:

27. Beckett
32. Doubront
41. Lester
48. Bard
51. Buchholz

The Red Sox are 12-19 for a lot of reasons: injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford and Andrew Bailey; a slow start from Adrian Gonzalez; a couple bullpen implosions; Bobby Valentine using outfielder Darnell McDonald to pitch in a tie game.

Those are all factors, but despite the injuries on offense, the Red Sox are still second in the AL in runs scored; the bullpen has five losses, but 14 teams have more; and Valentine is more lightning rod than explanation.

No, the responsibility rests with the starting rotation. Bard and Doubront have perhaps predictably been mediocre, but they've actually been improvements over Tim Wakefield and John Lackey, so the blame falls on the supposed big three of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz.

Beckett started in Fenway against Cleveland on Thursday, his first start since April 29 and first since the infamous "he cares more about golfing than pitching" story leaked to the media. Beckett actually had pitched pretty well since his five-homer disaster in his first start, posting a 2.93 ERA over his next four starts. While I'm happy to report that I didn't see any greasy fried chicken stains on his jersey, his evening was yet another May disaster for the Sox.

In the top of the second, with one run already in, Jack Hannahan hit a 2-2 changeup to right field for a two-out home run. Not surprisingly, the Fenway faithful let go with more than a few loud boos. In third inning, Jason Kipnis crushed a 3-2 cutter over the bullpen in right-center. After Asdrubal Cabrera singled, Beckett got ahead of Travis Hafner with two strikes but then threw four consecutive balls. Shin-Soo Choo doubled to right on a 2-0, four-seam fastball to score Cabrera. Michael Brantley fell behind two strikes, then lined a double into the gap in left-center on a 1-2 curveball, scoring two more runs and knocking Beckett from the bump in what would be an 8-3 Indians victory.

You can see the issues here: Even when he got ahead of batters, Beckett was unable to put them away. He used the whole tool box -- changeups, four-seamers, cutters, curveballs; the Indians hit them all. Six of the seven hits off Beckett went for extra bases.

I blurted out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast that Beckett is the most overrated pitcher of the past decade. That's probably unfair to a pitcher who has been good for a lot of years, a guy who had dominant postseason runs in 2003 and 2007 in leading the Marlins and Red Sox to World Series titles. Those playoff performances did inflate his reputation a bit, as his regular-season performances haven't been consistently at that level. He has received Cy Young votes just twice in his career (finishing second in 2007 and ninth in 2011). He hasn't exactly been CC Sabathia when it comes to durability, reaching 200 innings just three times and never topping 215. With the Red Sox, he's had two seasons of ERAs over 5.00.

Maybe 2012 is going to be one of those down years; Red Sox fans who saw Beckett and Lester collapse down the stretch expected leadership from Beckett, not reports on his golf swing.

Speaking of Lester, what has happened to the dominant left-hander of a few seasons ago? In 2009, he averaged 10.0 strikeout per nine innings, but that figure has dipped to 6.0 this season. His walks are up more than one per nine innings since 2009. His velocity is still fine; as Curt Schilling has pointed out, his command isn't, with Lester especially struggling in pitching to the outside corner against right-handed batters. Going back to his final 11 starts of 2011, Lester has a 4.16 ERA and a poor strikeout/walk ratio of 86/50. The stuff is still there, but we're going on 18 starts now of mediocre pitching.

Buchholz is an even bigger disaster, the worst starter in the majors so far. Unable to get the ball down in the zone, Buchholz has been pounded like a punching bag. Opponents are hitting .343 and slugging .613 off him. Essentially, the average hitter against Buchholz is David Ortiz. The Red Sox can't afford to keep sending him out there; he probably has one more start before a demotion to Triple-A or stint on the disabled list is necessary.

Eric Karabell made a good argument on the podcast: the Red Sox were 14-17 a year ago and only a historical collapse prevented them from reaching the playoffs. They're only two games worse now, he would suggest, so rationally they're far from out of it. Eric could also point out that Detroit and Arizona were both 14-17 after 31 games a year ago and won 95 and 94 games, respectively.

Eric is right, of course. The Red Sox aren't dead.

But with a 1-8 record in May and a starting rotation in shambles, they certainly look it.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Every season there is at least one surprise team. Every season there is at least one major disappointment.

Everyone is calling the Detroit Tigers a lock in the AL Central. But here are 10 reasons the Cleveland Indians can win the AL Central.

1. Shin-Soo Choo's return to form.

Choo was one the best players in baseball in 2009-10, when he hit .300/.397/.486, played good defense and stole 43 bases in 52 attempts. His Baseball-Reference WAR over those two seasons was fifth-best among position players, behind only Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer and Adrian Gonzalez, and just ahead of Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano. In 2011, he had three separate stints on the disabled list and a DUI arrest that left him embarrassed. A national hero in Korea, he felt he had let down his country. Now he's healthy again and capable of returning to the six-win player he was instead of the 1.3-win player of 2011.

2. A full season from Jason Kipnis.

Cleveland second basemen hit a combined .252/.296/.367 in 2011, and that included Kipnis' excellent late-season performance over 150 plate appearances. ZiPS has a conservative projection for Kipnis of .258/.320/.420 with 16 home runs. I think he'll do a little better than that -- Bill James projects .272/.337/.457. Either way, the Indians will get a lot more production from second base.

3. Carlos Santana will be a monster.

In his first full season, Santana hit for power (27 home runs) and drew walks (97, third-most in the AL). What he didn't do was hit for average, a .239 overall mark dragged down by a .201 mark from the left side. Santana also had a .263 average on balls in play, one of the lowest figures among MLB regulars. There's a good chance we'll see better numbers across the board.

4. The rotation is better than you think.

ESPN Insider Dave Cameron touched on this last week , comparing the Cleveland and Detroit rotations. "The Tigers get a few more strikeouts, but the Indians' starters are expected to issue fewer walks and give up fewer home runs, and the overall output for both groups is expected to be quite similar," Dave wrote. Justin Masterson is a legit top-of-the-rotation and starter and Ubaldo Jimenez is just one year removed from a big season with the Rockies.

5. Improved depth.

The Indians ranked ninth in the AL in runs scored a year ago and part of the reason is they were forced to give too many at-bats to nonproductive players -- Austin Kearns, Travis Buck, Orlando Cabrera, Lou Marson & Co. all ate significant chunks of playing time. Now they have Casey Kotchman, Matt LaPorta and Russ Canzler who can play first base or DH if Travis Hafner gets injured. They have Jack Hannahan and Lonnie Chisenhall (with some major league action now under his belt) at third base. Shelley Duncan will be given more time in the outfield. Canzler can play out there if needed. Even if Grady Sizemore doesn't contribute, the offense will be deeper and better. And speaking of the rotation, last year's rotation gave 32 starts to the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona, and he was terrible with a 5.25 ERA. Mitch Talbot had 12 awful starts (6.64 ERA). They have better depth now with Josh Tomlin, Derek Lowe, Kevin Slowey, rookie Zach McAllister and Jeanmar Gomez. The bullpen is fairly deep again with Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp and Joe Smith.

6. Justin Verlander won't be as good.

Some of that prediction is just the law of averages. But Verlander also threw 4,301 pitches between the regular season and playoffs, more than any other pitcher. By the postseason, when he struggled, maybe fatigue had set in a bit. Verlander also allowed a .236 average on balls in play. Maybe you're thinking, Sure, but it was Justin Verlander! He's tough to hit. Not disagreeing, but that was one of the 10 lowest figures by a starting pitcher since 1990. Odds are luck did play some factor in that.

7. Prince Fielder is only a minor upgrade.

Remember, Fielder's bat is essentially replacing Victor Martinez's and Martinez had a very good season, hitting .330 with a .380 on-base percentage. In 595 PAs, he created about 93 runs. In 692 PAs with the Brewers, Fielder created about 135 runs. He created 117 runs the year before. Comerica is a little tougher place to hit than Miller Park and Fielder won't be able to feast off the dregs of the NL Central. I'm not saying that Fielder isn't good; of course he it. But he will only be worth an additional 10 to 15 runs over 600 plate appearances compared to what Martinez gave the Tigers last season.

8. Decline from Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila.

These two were lost in the all Verlander and Miguel Cabrera hype but were keys to Detroit's success. Peralta has been all over the place in his career, but considering hi 2009-10 OPS was .696, I'm predicting regression from 2011's .824. Avila had a breakout season and is a better bet to repeat his 2011 numbers but not many catchers produce an .895 OPS year after year.

9. Jose Valverde will not go 49-for-49 in save opportunities.

Valverde was a big reason Detroit exceeded its projected record of 89-73 by six wins. Another key to the Detroit bullpen a year ago was rookie Al Alburquerque, who went 6-1 with a 1.87 ERA in 41 games. He had offseason elbow surgery and isn't expected back until midseason. In fact, Alburquerque and Doug Fister went a combined 14-2. You see that happening again?

10. Delmon Young ... your No. 5 hitter.

Young has had one good season in his career -- 2010 with the Twins. Otherwise, he's a low-OBP guy who eats up a ton of outs, is a terrible left fielder and doesn't really have big-time power (one season over 13 home runs). That 3-4-5 of Cabrera, Fielder and Young is painfully slow. Now, Young may end up serving a lot of time as the DH if Miguel Cabrera does play third base every day. Either way, you're getting some bad defense -- Miggy at third or Young in left field.

So, there you go. Look, I'm not delusional; the Tigers are still the division favorite. The Indians have a lot of ground to make up -- Detroit had a run differential of plus-76 a year ago while Cleveland was minus-56. But if you're looking for a surprise division winner for 2012, Cleveland is my pick.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Should we assume Adam Wainwright will be as good as he was in 2009 and 2010? How good is Jason Kipnis? Should the Reds trade Joey Votto before he becomes a free agent? Plus: Some suggested challenge trades, the future of the Astros and Orioles, Matt Harrison and more! Click here for the chat wrap.

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

The American League rookie crop has a chance to be one of the deepest, most exciting groups of rookies one league has produced in a long time (although the 2010 NL group with Buster Posey, Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, Starlin Castro and Jaime Garcia was an excellent one as well).

On the hitting side, Dustin Ackley, Eric Hosmer, Desmond Jennings and Brett Lawrie all have All-Star potential, and guys like Mark Trumbo, Jemile Weeks, Jason Kipnis, Mike Moustakas, Lonnie Chisenhall, J.P. Arencibia and Salvador Perez aren't far behind or showcased plenty of potential. Pitchers included Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, Michael Pineda, Zach Britton and Jordan Walden. Those lists don't even include prospect studs Mike Trout and Jesus Montero, who will both remain rookies next season.

It makes for a crowded rookie race, especially since several of the hitters excelled after in-season promotions, which limited their overall numbers. Here are the voting results from the SweetSpot network (based on the same structure as the real voting: five points for first, three for second and one for third):

1. Michael Pineda, Mariners: 77 points (13 first-place votes)
2. Jeremy Hellickson, Rays: 51 points (6)
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals: 25 points (3)
4. Dustin Ackley, Mariners: 23 points (1)
5. Ivan Nova, Yankees: 11 points
(tie) Mark Trumbo, Angels: 11 points (1)
7. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays: 8 points
8. Desmond Jennings, Rays: 5 points
9. Zach Britton, Orioles: 1 point

In our vote, it was essentially a two-player race; I suspect that in the actual vote, Nova will receive much more support. Let's start by looking at the three starting pitchers, all three of whom were regulars in their team's rotations most of the season.

Hellickson: 13-10, 2.95 ERA, 189 IP, 146 H, 117 SO, 72 BB, 21 HR, 1.15 WHIP
Pineda: 9-10, 3.74 ERA, 171 IP, 133 H, 173 SO, 55 BB, 18 HR, 1.10 WHIP
Nova: 16-4, 3.70 ERA, 165.1 IP, 163 H, 98 SO, 57 BB, 13 HR, 1.33 WHIP

Despite that glossy record, I think it’s pretty easy to dismiss Nova. He doesn’t have Hellickson’s ERA or Pineda’s peripherals; he pitched 24 fewer innings than Hellickson; he pitched in the AL East, but so did Hellickson. (We can ignore win-loss record, right? We all learned that last year when Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award, correct?) As important as Nova was to the Yankees, I think he's pretty clearly No. 3 here.

So let’s compare Hellickson and Pineda.

Baseball-Reference WAR
Hellickson: 4.2
Nova: 3.6
Lawrie 2.8
Pineda 2.8
Ackley 2.5
Jennings 2.3
Trumbo 2.1
Hosmer 1.3

FanGraphs WAR
Pineda: 3.4
Lawrie: 2.7
Ackley: 2.7
Nova: 2.7
Jennings: 2.4
Trumbo: 2.3
Hosmer: 1.6
Hellickson: 1.4

Hellickson's season was an anomaly in one important regard: He allowed just 7.0 hits per nine innings while striking out 5.6 batters per nine. How odd is that combo? Since 2000, only six other pitchers have thrown at least 150 innings while allowing 7.5 hits or less per nine innings and fewer than six strikeouts per nine. The others: Johnny Cueto (2011), Tim Hudson (2010), Trevor Cahill (2010), Barry Zito (2003), Derek Lowe (2002) and Damian Moss (2002).

Hellickson succeeded because his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .223, the lowest among major league starters. That explains the difference in his WAR total between the two sites. FanGraphs' WAR is based upon FIP (fielding independent pitching), which attempts to remove defensive support from a pitcher’s performance and assesses "a pitcher's talent level by looking at things a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs."

So while Hellickson's ERA was 2.95, FIP looks at his mediocre 117-72 strikeout/walk ratio and 21 home runs allowed and projects a 4.44 run average. Pineda, meanwhile, had a 173/55 strikeout/walk ratio and 18 home runs allowed, and his FIP comes in at 3.42 -- lower than his actual ERA.

Basically, FIP regards Hellickson as being hit lucky; indeed, if you were projecting which pitcher will have the lower ERA next season, Pineda is the obvious choice (assuming Hellickson doesn't ramp up his strikeout rate). As a projection system, FIP is much better than simply looking at ERA.

But when evaluating a current season, do you simply dismiss Hellickson’s results and say he wasn't that good? Personally, I think that’s a big leap. Hellickson’s run prevention may have involved a degree of luck -- it’s worth pointing out that Pineda also allowed a low .258 BABIP, ninth-lowest among MLB starters (both were also extreme flyball pitchers, which can lower a pitcher's BABIP) -- but he did allow a 2.95 ERA over 29 starts, pitching in the tough AL East. He made eight starts against the Red Sox and Yankees (3-2, 3.73 ERA in 48.1 innings). Pineda only had to make one start each against the Red Sox and Yankees. Yes, Hellickson benefited from him his home park and an excellent Tampa Bay defense; but Pineda also benefited from a pitcher-friendly home park and good defense.

Hellickson had a left-on-base percentage of 82 percent -- second-best in the majors behind Jered Weaver’s 82.6 percent. He allowed a .167 average with runners in scoring position, with just three home runs in 144 at-bats. Again, there is some good fortune involved here -- a .167 average allowed is not a repeatable skill -- but it did happen. It was a real result that helped the Rays win games and I can’t so easily dismiss what happened on the field.

In some aspects, while last year's AL Cy Young debate was billed as the battle of new numbers (win-loss record for pitchers is overrated), it wasn't really the battle of new numbers: King Felix excelled in all the other conventional statistics like ERA, strikeouts and innings pitched. To deny Hellickson the rookie award would be the real shout-out to sabermetrics, ignoring his ERA and attributing his numbers completely to luck and defense. I don't think that will happen in the real vote; in fact, I'll be surprised if Pineda finishes in the top three, since -- let's face it -- win-loss record still means something to a lot of voters.

I’m a Mariners fan. I watched Pineda pitch 10-12 times this season and he and Ackley provided two bright hopes in a miserable season. If he stays healthy, the big right-hander is going to be a Cy Young contender in the future. But I put Hellickson No. 1. As for the rest of my ballot, Lawrie and Jennings were great in short stints (Lawrie's WAR includes a positive rating for his defense, which goes against the scouting reports as he came up through the minors), Ackley in a little longer stint, Hosmer over 128 games. Both B-R and FanGraphs hate Hosmer’s defense (going against the general scouting reviews of his glovework), and thus affecting his WAR rating. Trumbo’s 29 home runs and 87 RBIs led all rookies, but that .291 on-base percentage is damaging. Trumbo had some big hits for the Angels, but I can't put a guy with a .291 OBP in the top three.

My ballot
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Michael Pineda
3. Eric Hosmer

Predicted results
1. Jeremy Hellickson
2. Ivan Nova
3. Mark Trumbo

* * * *

In the National League, Braves closer Craig Kimbrel is expected to cruise to the award after leading the NL with 46 saves, posting a 2.10 ERA and striking out 127 batters in 77 innings, the sixth-highest strikeout rate ever with at least 50 innings pitched. (By the way, fellow rookie Kenley Jansen had the best rate ever, with 16.10 per nine innings.)

Here is the SweetSpot network voting results:

1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves: 108 points (18 first-place votes)
2. Freddie Freeman, Braves: 35 points (3)
3. Danny Espinosa, Nationals: 26 points (3)
4. Vance Worley, Phillies: 16 points
5. Brandon Beachy, Braves: 14 points
6. Wilson Ramos, Nationals: 13 points
7. Kenley Jansen, Dodgers: 2 points
8. Josh Collmenter, Diamondbacks: 1 point
(tie) Lucas Duda, Mets: 1 point

I suspect the actual voting results will follow a similar pattern, with Kimbrel possibly emerging as the unanimous winner. Espinosa flew under the radar all season, but hit for power (21 home runs) and played a very good second base. Like Hosmer, Freeman’s glovework doesn’t rate well by the fielding metrics. Overall, Espinosa's package of power and defense at a premium position makes him more valuable than Freeman. Worley and Beachy were terrific in partial seasons and Ramos gave the Nationals a second foundation piece for the future.

My ballot
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Danny Espinosa
3. Freddie Freeman

Predicted results
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Freddie Freeman
3. Danny Espinosa

There might be a changing of the guard in the NL West, but no such thing occurred on Thursday’s Baseball Today, as Keith Law and I gathered to delve into the best sport, with the following topics on the docket:

1. Tony La Russa’s St. Louis Cardinals fell even further behind the Milwaukee Brewers, and one has to wonder if an era is coming to an end.

2. Is Troy Tulowitzki the NL MVP? Certainly one can make the case, and KLaw does, but I do think the standings have to play some role in the decision. Do you agree?

3. Projecting big league performance from minor leaguers is generally a dicey proposition, but when an emailer asks for our favorite "4A" players who didn’t pan out, we’ve got names.

4. Where oh where has the screwball gone? KLaw discusses this interesting pitch and why it’s no longer in vogue.

5. As the Yankees prepare to send Bartolo Colon to the mound Thursday, I wonder if it matters that the team doesn’t have a natural No. 2 starter. Ivan Nova’s looking good, after all.

Plus: Excellent emails, a tough day for Alex Anthopoulos, ESPN’s Amy Nelson and Bryce Harper, the sputtering Giants, the awesome Jason Kipnis and so much more on a packed Baseball Today for Thursday!

Keith Law has a piece up on Insider showing how data indicates that relief pitchers are constantly overvalued. Not only are they especially volatile from year to year, they are volatile within a single season. Here's one key nugget: "In one query, we looked at relievers who changed teams midyear after throwing at least 30 innings with a sub-4 ERA for the first team. Of 166 pitchers, 108 saw their ERAs rise after relocating, with 68 posting ERAs for their new clubs a run above their ERAs for their former clubs, and 40 going up by at least two runs."

Something to keep in mind with relievers like Heath Bell, Leo Nunez, Kyle Farnsworth and Koji Uehara among the more popular trade candidates.

Of course, what their current teams can get in return remains to be seen. Because as Buster Olney writes today on his Insider blog, teams are more reluctant than ever to deal prospects, even second- and third-tier prospects. He quotes an executive saying, "When you've reached the point when you're refusing to trade prospects who aren't even close to being your top guys, then all that really is is being afraid to make a mistake. If you're not willing to trade a minor leaguer who you don't rate highly, then it's just fear. And that's a tough way to do business, because there the opportunities to win don't come every year."

It's all part of what makes the trade deadline so interesting:

1. It's overhyped to begin with, with rumors far outweighing the number of deals that will be made, and fans (and some GMs) overrating the actual impact one player can make anyway.
2. General managers feel pressure from media, fans and players on the team to make a deal.
3. Fans know more about prospects than ever, sparking even more debates.
4. Teams overrate/overvalue their own prospects.
5. Most prospects who are traded don't turn into stars anyway.
6. GMs are scared of making the Shin-Soo Choo for Ben Broussard or Carlos Santana for Casey Blake mistakes.

It's a big mess of fun and speculation, isn't it?

More links to check out

• Via the Hardball Talk blog, Dave Parker thinks he should be in the Hall of Fame. The Cobra has some nice arguments: two batting titles, an MVP Award, 2,712 hits and 1,493 RBIs. But he was really only a great player for six seasons: 1975 to 1979 and again in 1985. Over 90 percent of his career value was really contained in those six seasons, as he spent the rest of his career as a low-OBP, poor defensive right fielder/DH. His .339 OBP would be the lowest of any Hall of Fame outfielder other than Andre Dawon.
• Speaking of the Hall of Fame, Dan Szymborski had a piece the other day on ESPN Insider on the best 27-and-under Hall of Fame candidates.
• The Giants and Phillies begin an interesting series today, and SweetSpot bloggers Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley and Chris Quick of Bay City Ball exchanged Q&As with each other. Here's Bill answering questions about the Phillies. And here's Chris answering questions about the Giants.
• Baseball Time in Arlington writes about a night to remember for the Rangers.
• As always, I recommend the daily roundup over at You Can't Predict Baseball.
• Nick's Twins Blog looks at what's gone wrong for Francisco Liriano this season.
• Geoff Young, who writes our Padres blog, has an interesting piece at Baseball Prospectus looking at Bruce Bochy's record in one-run games ... it's very, very good over his career and the Giants are 27-13 in one-run games this year.
• Jason Kipnis gave Indians fans a reminder of baseball's continual ability to delight.

An impartial observer might take a snapshot of the American League Central and conclude that the race is an exercise in wheel-spinning. But that’s not entirely correct: The four teams at the top just have no idea if they’re coming or going.

The Twins were treated to a combination wedgie and noogie in a 20-6 loss to Texas on Monday and are now 47-55. But they seem strangely resistant to entertaining offers for free agent-to-be Michael Cuddyer, a solid righty bat, terrific clubhouse guy and crafty situational reliever in blowouts who might net them a decent prospect haul in return. It’s nice to be loyal and cling to hope based on some recent fast finishes, but you have to wonder if Twins general manager Bill Smith is missing an opportunity to capitalize on a valuable asset here.

The Indians, who beat the Angels 3-2 on a walk-off single by rookie second baseman Jason Kipnis, have an AL Central-best run differential of plus-2. They began the season at 30-15, but injuries to Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore and an overall lack of lineup depth have stalled their momentum and left fans wondering when the magic ends and the reality check begins. Meanwhile, GM Chris Antonetti continues to look for a bat on a limited budget.

The White Sox, the American League’s answer to the enigmatic Reds, are always a stinker away from an Ozzie Guillen expletive-fest. And general manager Kenny Williams, a guy who lives to make waves at the trade deadline, seems genuinely conflicted. Amid rumors that he’s talking to St. Louis about a deal for young outfielder Colby Rasmus, Williams appeared on ESPN Radio in Chicago and said he might “turn over the entire roster’’ if the White Sox don’t make a move here shortly.

That leaves us with the division leaders in Detroit, where Justin Verlander might or might not have enough help in the rotation to get the Tigers to the postseason, and GM David Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland might or might not be on the spot with owner Mike Illitch in the final year of their contracts.

It was only fitting that when the Tigers and White Sox met in a big AL Central showdown Monday night at U.S. Celluar Field, all the division’s warts were on display. Between home runs by Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the Chicago crowd was treated to botched pop flies, a muffed pickoff, a near-collision between Juan Pierre and Alex Rios in the outfield and a wild pitch that careened off Pierzynski’s shinguard and was turned into an out at second base by reliever Jesse Crain.

The Tigers ran out four pitchers -- Duane Below, Chance Ruffin, Charlie Furbush and David Purcey -- with a combined 215 2/3 innings in the big leagues. The vast majority of those belong to Purcey. And White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, miracle of miracles, actually issued a leadoff walk in the fifth inning.

Is this any way to run a pennant race?

Take an informal survey of people in baseball front offices, and their predictions for the division generally fall along the same lines. Just about everyone favors Chicago’s pitching staff, but the White Sox are going to have a hard time winning if Adam Dunn (.159 batting average) and Rios (.301 slugging percentage, 23 RBIs) continue to look this pathetic at the plate. If Dunn plans to hit .200 this season, he better have some Ted Williams-caliber mashing in store for August and September.

Offensively, the Tigers win the Best in Show award. Detroit ranks fifth in the league in runs scored, and Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Victor Martinez all have an OPS north of .800.

The Tigers have been trolling for a front-end starter. But with Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields pretty much un-acquirable, they might have to stand pat or settle for a back-end guy to complement their top four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penny.

It could be worse: Scherzer, although up-and-down this season, has generated a swing-and-miss percentage of 9.3 -- better than Matt Cain, Jered Weaver and David Price. And Porcello has quietly gone 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in July. He’s still 22 years old, remember?

In a race this chaotic, the schedule can make a difference. While the Tigers are finished playing Boston and New York this season, the White Sox welcome the Red Sox and Yankees to Chicago for seven games starting Wednesday. As for the feisty Indians, they have 10 games against Boston, Texas and Detroit in early August. That’s their sink-or-swim stretch.

“It’s a weak division,’’ said a National League personnel man, “but I’ve liked the Tigers all year. Never underestimate a team with a good offense and an ace [starter]. You just don’t have long losing streaks.’’

And who cares about labels? Dunn can’t step to the plate these days without another out-of-town broadcaster referring to him as “the struggling Adam Dunn.’’ But as he told Yahoo! Sports in a recent interview, he still enjoys playing, “Even though I suck.’’

Say this for the Big Donkey: He’s come to the right place.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Here are the top five reasons why Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast with myself and Keith Law was so compelling you’d be wise to download and listen ... or something like that:

1. Personally, I think some of this Los Angeles Dodgers mess -- on the field, of course -- is a bit overstated, but we did have a nice debate about it. Everyone seems to want the same resolution, except one guy.

2. The Cleveland Indians gave their best third baseman a promotion, and Lonnie Chisenhall delivered a few hits Monday night. What’s his upside, and how long before the team’s best second baseman is helping him?

3. At which position should the Minnesota Twins be playing Joe Mauer? Again, Law and I raised some interesting and differing viewpoints on the matter.

4. The Kansas City Royals make a major rotation announcement because of ... Kyle Davies! OK, but seriously folks, what works best, five-man, six-man or another type of rotation?

5. It’s all about the on-base percentage, as we compare a few National League infielders ... and even throw in that Albert Pujols fellow as well.

Plus: Excellent emails, more on the Jim Riggleman disaster, my ideal final four for October baseball, April games versus September ones, the art of bunting and a comprehensive look at Tuesday’s schedule, all on Baseball Today!

 

June is starting to be referred to as "prospect month." That's the time you start seeing more of the top prospects getting called up, as teams hold back their service time as long as possible. The Royals just promoted third baseman Mike Moustakas to join rookie first baseman Eric Hosmer, the Rockies called up outfielder Charlie Blackmon, and Julio Teheran has made a couple of spot starts for the Braves.

If you're a prospect hound or play fantasy baseball or read the great coverage from Keith Law and Jason Grey on ESPN Insider, you'll know all about the following guys. But if you're a fan who sticks to the majors, this primer will help you learn about some of the top prospects who might soon be ready to make an impact in the majors.

Dustin Ackley, 2B, Mariners
Who is he? Seattle’s first-round pick, second overall, in the 2009 draft.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: 7.
Stats: .291/.410/.481, 9 HR, 53 BB, 37 SO at Triple-A Tacoma.

After a slow start, Ackley hit .355 with a 1.054 OPS in May and is hitting .350 with a 1.119 OPS in June. He’s got one of the best eyes in the minors and projects as a 20-homer guy in the majors. He was an outfielder and first baseman at North Carolina, and the Mariners have attempted to switch him to second base. However, some scouts believe it’s time to give up on the experiment and move Ackley to left field. Regardless, his bat is ready, and the Mariners desperately need a top-of-the-order on-base guy. Actually, they just need any hitter who can hit something called major league pitching.

Quote: "We view Ackley as our second baseman going forward." -- Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik to The Seattle Times’ Geoff Baker in late May.

ETA: Any day.

Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
Who is he? A 10th-round pick in 2006, Jennings has been on top-100 prospect lists since 2008.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: 20.
Stats: .285/.379/.475, 9 HR, 12 SB at Triple-A Durham.

After Jennings' cup of coffee in September, many expected the Rays to hand him their starting left-field job, but the club instead brought in Johnny Damon to play left and Manny Ramirez to DH, with Jennings sent back for a return engagement to Triple-A. After Manny retired, the Rays instead installed Sam Fuld in left (and lately, Justin Ruggiano), content to preserve Jennings’ service time. After hitting three home runs in 109 games last year, Jennings has increased his power output. He’s a little old (24) to be considered a future star in my book but has a nice all-around game and is ready for a major league job.

Quote: "I've been more aggressive towards the ball. Last year, I was tentative in swinging at some pitches, but now I'm feeling good about letting it go and taking an aggressive swing." -- Jennings, last week.

ETA: July. That said, at this point there isn’t evidence to suggest that Jennings could outhit Ruggiano, so the Rays are still in no rush to promote him.

Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians
Who is he? Second-round pick in 2009 out of Arizona State, moved from center field to second base.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: 56.
Stats: .293/.366/.489, 7 HR at Triple-A Columbus, over .300 since May.

Kipnis has a nice all-around game with decent pop for a second baseman and baseball instincts that have him 10-for-10 in stolen-base attempts. His move to second base has gone smoother than it has for Ackley.

Quote: "One scout who has seen him multiple times over the past two years noted his improved defense and projects him to be average at the position." -- Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

ETA: June. Veteran Orlando Cabrera offers nothing at this point. He’s lost range and is a zero with the stick. The Indians need to call up Kipnis ASAP.

Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians
Who is he? Cleveland’s first-round pick in 2008 (29th), owner of what Keith Law describes as one of the sweetest-looking swings in the minors.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: 39.
Stats: .250/.342/.392, 5 HR at Triple-A Columbus.

Chisenhall’s swing hasn’t produced big numbers at Triple-A, and he’s done nothing to alleviate concerns about his production against left-handers, hitting just .175 against them. Even though the Indians could use help at third base -- Jack Hannahan is hitting like Jack Hannahan after a solid April -- Chisenhall’s recall doesn’t appear imminent.

Quote: "Lonnie has been a little more of a challenge. He's had periods where he's been consistent with his swing and approach. He's had other periods where he's struggled a little bit. All the attributes are there for Lonnie to be a very successful major league hitter. He's just a young player developing." -- Indians GM Chris Antonetti to the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes on Sunday.

ETA: August.

Matt Dominguez, 3B, Marlins
Who is he? 2007 first-round pick with an outstanding glove but questions about his bat.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: 55.
Stats: .250/.337/.463, 4 HR in 80 at-bats at Triple-A New Orleans (after fracturing his elbow in spring training).

Dominguez won't turn 22 until August, and the spring training injury set him back a couple of months. As desperate as the Marlins are for help at third base, they’ll undoubtedly want to give Dominguez more time at Triple-A to work on his hitting.

Quote: "His defense is plus-major league defense for a third baseman, and that's his thing. Now he needs to get used to upper-level pitching and get out of here." -- New Orleans manager Greg Norton

ETA: Late July/August.

Brett Lawrie, 3B, Blue Jays
Who is he? Milwaukee’s first-round pick in 2008, the key part of the Shaun Marcum trade in the offseason.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: 37.
Stats: .354/.415/.677, 15 HR at Triple-A Las Vegas (currently on the DL with a fracture in his hand).

Lawrie was days from a call-up when hit by a pitch on May 31. He’ll be out another couple of weeks before returning to Triple-A. Lawrie had played second base in the Milwaukee system but was moved to third base in spring training. The move has gone well, although some still think he’ll end up in the outfield. He’s made 12 errors at Las Vegas. In other words, he should look like Brooks Robinson compared to Edwin Encarnacion.

Quote: "There's at least a chance he stays at third base, although I doubt it, but he has the arm and athleticism to play a good right field, and in general has made positive changes that have put old makeup concerns about him [to rest]." -- Keith Law, May 31, updated top 25 prospects.

ETA: All-Star break.

Devin Mesoraco, C; Yonder Alonso, 1B; Dave Sappelt, OF, Reds
Who are they? Three Reds prospects at Triple-A Louisville. Prime trade bait.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: Mesoraco No. 31, Alonso No. 65.
Stats: Mesoraco .330/.409/.558; Alonso .313/.369/.502; Sappelt .333/.402/.543.

Although the Reds are getting solid production from Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan, they would be reluctant to trade Mesoraco given his terrific Triple-A numbers. (They also have Yasmani Grandal, their first-round pick in 2010, hitting .293 in Class A.) Alonso, blocked by Joey Votto, is more likely to be dealt, but he’s a tier down on the prospect rankings. The Reds have been trying him in left field, but nobody really believes he’s a left fielder. Sappelt is one of my favorite unheralded prospects in the minors. Drafted out of Coastal Carolina, he’s 5-foot-9 and about 200 pounds, so he doesn’t have a classic big league body. But he can hit -- .333 in 27 games this season (he missed time with an oblique injury) and .342 last year (winning the Southern League batting title). The Reds might be content with Chris Heisey in left or use Sappelt as part of a trade offer.

Quote: "He has the potential to be a top-notch everyday hitter and catcher in the big leagues." Louisville manager Smokey Garrett on Mesoraco.

ETA: Trade deadline or later.

David Phelps, RHP, Yankees
Who is he? 14th-round pick in 2008 out of Notre Dame. His fastball rates better than his draft round would indicate, into the 91-93 mph range with good control. He also throws a slider, curve and changeup.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: Not rated.
Stats: 4-4, 2.95 ERA, 76.1 IP, 76 H, 20 BB, 66 SO, 8 HR at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

With Bartolo Colon heading to the DL, Phelps might get the call to start on Thursday. He throws strikes and pitches with confidence. Hector Noesi is still the favorite to start, but Phelps was scratched from his Triple-A start on Monday, with Brian Cashman saying they are "preserving all options" for Colon’s slot. Even if he doesn’t make his major league debut this week, Phelps is a good bet to appear at some point this season, considering the fragile state of health and age of the Yankees' rotation. As much as Yankees fans want to see top prospects Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, neither is dominating Double-A and both need to refine their command before getting a big league call.

Quote: "Will he make the cover of ESPN Magazine's NEXT issue if he makes two good starts?" -- Yankees fanboy.

ETA: This week?

Trayvon Robinson, CF, Dodgers
Who is he? A local product from Crenshaw High School, Robinson was a 10th-round pick in 2005 and has moved along slowly through the minors.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: Not rated.
Stats: .304/.363/.567, 14 HR at Triple-A Albuquerque.

The power numbers are impressive, but a lot of hitters are tearing up the PCL this year, and a .304 average actually isn’t all that impressive. Of concern is his 68-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio, so although Robinson will turn 24 later this season, he might need a full year of Triple-A. That said, left field has been a problem all season for the Dodgers, and prospect Jerry Sands was just sent back down after struggling in the majors. A natural center fielder, Robinson might be next in line.

Quote: "Will Robinson be the next player in the Dodgers' youth movement to get the call? He went though a stretch in which he was pressing and opening up his swing too much. Still, he's on the club's radar screen for the second half." -- Jason Grey

ETA: July.

Shelby Miller, RHP, Cardinals
Who is he? The 19th overall pick in 2009 out of high school in Texas, Miller might be the top pitching prospect in the minors.
Keith Law’s preseason top 100: 9.
Stats: 3-3, 2.77 ERA, 65 IP, 53 H, 24 BB, 95 SO between Class A and Double-A.

Miller is the long shot on the list, but after dominating Class A for nine starts, he’s been promoted to Double-A and pitched well there in two starts (14 SO in 13 IP). And once you’re in Double-A, the majors aren’t far away. Just 20, he has a high-powered 95 mph fastball, plus an excellent changeup and curveball. The strikeout rate attests to his dominant stuff, but the one concern is he’s been an extreme fly-ball pitcher this year. Although that’s translated to only two home runs allowed in the minors, it’s something to keep an eye on. Miller is unlikely to get the call anytime soon, but with St. Louis in the pennant race, Miller could be a late-season option if needed.

Quote: "Big league hitters don't chase off the plate. They'll chase on the plate below the zone. That's what we're trying to get him to do." -- Springfield pitching coach Bryan Eversgerd to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch

ETA: September.

Others to watch: Kyle Gibson, RHP, Twins; Jesus Montero, DH, Yankees; Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Royals; Rex Brothers, LH reliever, Rockies; Matt Moore, LHP, Rays; Mike Montgomery, LHP, Royals.

On Opening Day, more than 41,000 fans showed up in Cleveland and saw the home team fall behind 14-0 after four innings. The next day, the Indians fell behind 5-0 in the top of the second and lost 8-3. On the third day of the season, the White Sox led again, 1-0 in the fourth inning and had two runners on with nobody out.

And then came the play that turned around Cleveland’s season. At least, it will go into mythology that way if the Indians continue their magical run beyond this eight-game winning streak that has the baseball world wondering if the Indians are for real.

Alexei Ramirez squared around to bunt for the White Sox, the runners took off, Ramirez popped the ball up toward first baseman Carlos Santana -- normally the team’s starting catcher -- and Santana made a diving catch that turned into a triple play. Justin Masterson settled down from there, the Indians won 7-1 and haven’t lost since.

"You don't win or lose a division in the first week or even the first month," Orlando Cabrera said after the game. "But getting that first win is always huge. The triple play got us going."

So the question: Are they for real?

Before attacking that issue, let’s back track to 2010 for a moment. The Indians had a tough season, with major injuries to Asdrubal Cabrera and Grady Sizemore. They shuffled players in and out of the infield all season -- four guys started at least 20 games at second base, three started at least that many at third base and three started at least 14 at shortstop. With Sizemore sidelined, Trevor Crowe and Michael Brantley tried center field, but neither hit. Overall, the defense was subpar -- 21st in the majors in defensive efficiency per Baseball Prospectus, 29th in UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) per FanGraphs.

So the offseason challenge: Bide time until the team’s top two prospects, third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall and second baseman Jason Kipnis, are ready, but do it on the cheap. Famous ex-shortstop Cabrera was brought in to play second base and good-field, bad-hit Jack Hannahan won the third-base job out of spring training. Far from perfect solutions, and while both are off to good starts at the plate, they’ll sink to their true offensive abilities soon enough. But they at least will anchor a much-improved defense and help a starting rotation that lacks strikeout pitchers.

Following Monday’s 4-0 shutout of the Angels, that Indians staff is on a roll: After those first two disasters, the starters have pitched 52 1/3 innings, allowing just 33 hits and nine runs. Dominant? Well … sort of. They’ve struck out only 37 batters in that span, meaning that hit ratio isn’t going to continue, no matter how good the defense performs.

Mitch Talbot epitomized this run with his outing against the Angels. He pitched into the ninth inning, not overpowering with four strikeouts, but allowed just five hits. He did induce 13 ground balls, but eventually more of those grounders will find holes. That’s what’s been happening. Josh Tomlin has allowed a .139 average on balls in play in his two starts. Masterson pitched seven innings of one-run baseball against the White Sox without striking out a batter.

This doesn’t mean the Indians can’t surprise. I’ve watched both of Tomlin’s starts and despite middling stuff, he has an idea of what to do out there. He can be a solid back-of-the-rotation guy if he keeps the ball in the park. Talbot has better stuff than Tomlin but not much of a track record. Carmona and Masterson come with a better pedigree but must show consistency and throw strikes. I still have doubts -- it’s really a staff of No. 4 and No. 5 starters -- but the defense will at least be helping rather than hindering this year.

Anyway, it’s a good time for Cleveland to get hot. After two more games in Anaheim, the Indians host Baltimore for three, have four in Kansas City, three in Minnesota and return home for the Royals and Tigers. If they can navigate that fairly easy stretch with a nice record, you could see this team gaining a little confidence.

And then there’s the big picture. A year from now, the Indians could be throwing out this lineup:

SS Asdrubal Cabrera
CF Grady Sizemore
RF Shin-Soo Choo
C Carlos Santana
DH Travis Hafner
3B Lonnie Chisenhall
1B Matt LaPorta
2B Jason Kipnis
LF Michael Brantley

They need LaPorta to improve (I’m skeptical) and Chisenhall and Kipnis to live up to their potential, but that could be one of the better lineups in the league.

Unfortunately, attendance has suffered in recent years and the front office has cut the payroll to bare bones (26th in the majors in 2011). Hafner’s $13 million per season contract runs through 2013 and Sizemore’s health remains such a great unknown that it’s possible the team won’t pick up his $8.5 million club option for 2012.

For a franchise in which not much has gone right in a long time, it’s at last nice to see something positive happening for a change.

PHOTO OF THE DAY