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The Reds received a game-changing grand slam in the sixth inning to take a 5-2 lead against the Braves on Thursday night, leading to their sixth consecutive victory and their first sweep of the Braves since 1980. It wasn’t superstar Joey Votto who provided the knockout punch, nor was it mainstays Brandon Phillips or Jay Bruce. The home run came off the bat of one of the Reds’ many unheralded young players: 23-year-old rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco.

The blast also marked Cincinnati’s 10th home run of the series, leading to 14 of its 16 runs in the series. Winning with home runs is nothing new for this Reds squad, not at Great American Ball Park and certainly not in the Joey Votto era. But Votto didn’t hit a single homer in the series. Neither did Bruce. Phillips hit two. Instead of the three stalwarts on this Reds squad, it was the supporting cast leading the way: Mesoraco (1), Drew Stubbs (3), Zack Cozart (2), Todd Frazier (1) and Mike Leake (1).

Leake’s homer backed up a quality start on Monday, and the other home runs backed up quality starts from Mat Latos (Tuesday), Bronson Arroyo (Wednesday) and Homer Bailey (Thursday). The Reds saw scoreless outings from five different relievers and saves converted by three. To accomplish this in any series is excellent; to do so against the second-highest-scoring team in the league in one of the best hitters’ parks in all of baseball is another.

Depth and pitching have set this year’s Reds squad apart from last year’s version, a preseason favorite for the National League Central crown that was eventually lapped by both the Brewers and Cardinals. The 2011 season saw a 156 OPS+ from Votto and 119 OPS+ marks from both Phillips and Bruce. No other full-time starters came close; only part-time players Chris Heisey (113), Ramon Hernandez (113) and Miguel Cairo (101) even mustered an above average mark.

This season has seen the likes of Paul Janish, Edgar Renteria and Jonny Gomes excised in favor of Cozart (.727 OPS) and Frazier (.887). It has seen Stubbs come to life after three horrible series to open the year -- he owns a .266/.324/.430 line since April 17 to go with his typical fantastic defense. It’s seen Ryan Hanigan pick up his game as well, with a .794 OPS in 27 games as the starting catcher.

Johnny Cueto owns a phenomenal 2.22 ERA over 33 starts dating back to May 2011, but it was the other four Cincinnati starters who held down the Braves this week. Latos started out cold, but has a 2.35 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 23 innings in May. Arroyo has a 121 ERA+ after allowing a near-record 46 home runs last season, owning an absurd 44-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 58.2 innings. Bailey and Leake have had their rough spots, but they fit well in the back of the Reds’ rotation -- a tough job with half of their starts coming in the bandbox in Cincinnati.

The bullpen has established itself as one of the league’s best. Regardless of what one thinks Aroldis Chapman’s role should be, it is undeniable that he is the league’s best reliever. In the four-game sweep of the Braves, he pitched two more scoreless innings. Chapman fronts a bullpen full of talented pitchers: Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek and Alfredo Simon all own ERA+ marks of 137 or higher. Sean Marshall shouldn’t be counted out either despite a rough start -- he was one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons.

The Reds currently sit atop the NL Central, with a half-game lead over the Cardinals. As usual, Votto, Phillips, Cueto and Bruce lead the way. But if the Reds maintain their current success and carry it through to a playoff run, it will be because this year they didn’t have to do it all themselves.

For a few brief moments on Monday night, it appeared the Cincinnati Reds would slide past the St. Louis Cardinals into first place in the NL Central. The Reds had defeated the Braves 4-1 behind a brilliant effort from Mike Leake and four solo home runs. The Padres were leading the Cardinals late in their game, until Tyler Greene's two-run homer in the eighth lifted the Cards to a 4-3 victory.

Still ... half a game. Half a game. Cardinals fans have to be wondering how this happened.

Considering the hot starts many of the Cardinals jumped out to -- Rafael Furcal, Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran and three-fifths of the rotation in Kyle Lohse, Lance Lynn and Jake Westbrook -- the Cardinals can only look back and wonder why they're not five or six games in front of the Reds. After all, St. Louis' run differential is +58; Cincinnati's is only +3.

I'd call it an opportunity squandered, because now the Reds are breathing down their necks and they're probably here to stay. Hey, there has to be at least two good teams in the NL Central, right?

With all the talk about who should be closing in Cincinnati, the biggest issue with the pitching staff has been Leake. He entered winless in seven starts -- at 0-5, he joined Chris Volstad and Francisco Liriano as the only pitchers without a win and at least five decisions -- but wasn't just reeling from a lack of run support. He'd allowed at least three runs each start, had a 6.21 ERA, a .309 batting average allowed and just 21 strikeouts in 37.2 innings.

Leake walked Martin Prado with one out in the first but struck out Freddie Freeman and Dan Uggla. In the second, Juan Francisco homered, but Leake then retired 14 in a row before Uggla doubled in the seventh. He finished with eight innings, just those two hits and six K's. For Leake, his biggest issue before Monday night had been an ineffective changeup, usually a good pitch for him. In 2010-2011, opponents hit .252 off his changeup but they were hitting .529 in at-bats ending with a changeup in 2012.

He appeared to compensate by throwing more cutters against the Braves -- 28 out of 98, the second-most he's thrown in a start this season. Of course, it helped that he was ahead of hitters much of the night, throwing just two pitches on three-ball counts; in his previous three starts, he'd thrown 31 pitches with three balls. Pitching is easier when you don't have to groove a pitch to avoid a walk.

Leake also sparked the Cincinnati offense in the fourth inning, when he homered off his friend Mike Minor (Minor was the seventh pick in the 2009 draft, Leake the eighth, and the two were teammates on Team USA). Zack Cozart and Drew Stubbs followed with home runs to give the Reds back-to-back-to-back blasts. While it was Leake's first career blast, he's a legitimate threat at the plate with a .271 career average.

The four solo shots do highlight a big problem with the Reds' offense, however. Outside of Joey Votto this lineup is completely hacktastic -- working the count is not exactly a disease that has spread from Votto to everyone else. Even with Votto's MLB-leading 40 walks, the Reds rank just 11th in the NL in free passes, and despite playing in a hitter-friendly home park, their .697 team OPS is tied for 10th in the league. After Votto, Jay Bruce is second on the team with 12 walks -- quadruple that total and you have a guy on pace for 48. Home run boys Cozart and Stubbs can flip the occasional long ball, but they've combined for just 22 walks and 86 strikeouts. Brandon Phillips has just eight walks. Votto gets walked a lot because he often comes up with nobody on base. (Memo to Dusty Baker: Try moving Bruce in front of Votto. Just consider it, please.)

Somewhere, Joe Morgan cringes.

When the Reds won the NL Central in 2010, they led the NL in runs scored. That team led the NL with 188 home runs and a .272 average while ranking ninth in walks. This offense doesn't show signs of matching the firepower of that lineup, not with Votto, Bruce and catcher Ryan Hanigan the only three sporting an OBP over .300.

That means the Reds are going to be in a lot of low-scoring games, which means the bullpen will prove key, especially since Leake's outing was only the 12th in 41 games where the Reds' starter has gone at least seven innings.

Which, inevitably, gets us back to Baker and how he handles the relief crew. It's certainly interesting that in the two days since Aroldis Chapman was "named" the team's closer that exiled closer Sean Marshall picked up the two most important outs.

On Sunday, with the Reds leading the Yankees 3-2 and a runner on with no outs in the eighth, Marshall retired Robinson Cano. Chapman came on for the easy save and faced the bottom of the Yankees lineup after the Reds had extended their lead to 5-2.

On Monday, with Chapman unavailable after pitching four times in five days, Marshall again delivered after Jose Arredondo walked Uggla and Brian McCann with two outs in the ninth. Brought on to face Jason Heyward, Marshall fell behind with a slider, threw two of his big-breaking curveballs for a called strike and a swinging strike, saw Heyward foul off another curve, threw a fastball down low, and then got Heyward to fly to right on another curve.

For all the consternation over who gets the capital C designation, it shouldn't really matter. Marshall is a very good reliever. Chapman has been a great one. Arredondo and Logan Ondrusek are solid right-handers and rookie J.J. Hoover has looked impressive. What Baker should avoid doing is getting trapped into saving Chapman for the ninth inning only -- which means fewer innings and fewer moments with the game on the line. Chapman is the guy you want in there when you need a big strikeout with runners on base in the eighth inning. Marshall, Arrendodo and Ondrusek can close out the three-run leads. Use Chapman and his bullpen mates wisely, and the Reds can stay in this race even with a mediocre offense.

As for the Cardinals, that hot start is a thing of the past. The injuries are mounting and that run differential has gone to waste. We're a quarter of the way into the season and we have a race.

Considering these two teams have some strong dislike for each other going back a couple years, it should be a fun summer in Central Land.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Take a break from Jeremy Lin. Here are some links worth checking out from outside the SweetSpot network. Check back later Wednesday for more links from our list of bloggers.

• Keith Law released his list of top 100 prospects last week. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (and ESPN contributor) released his top 100 on Monday. Keith and Kevin have the same three at the top, although in different orders: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Matt Moore for Keith; Moore, Harper and Trout for Kevin. They match up on eight of the top 10: Keith has Blue Jays catcher Travis d'Arnaud at No. 6 (No. 16 for Kevin) and Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco at No. 8 (No. 24 for Kevin). Kevin has Braves right-hander Julio Teheran at No. 5 (No. 18 for Keith) and Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy at No. 6 (No. 11 for Keith). One of the more interesting splits is Giants center fielder Gary Brown, a speed demon who hit .336 with 14 home runs at Class A San Jose. Keith has him ranked 68th, citing his defensive abilities but wondering about his second skills; Kevin ranked him 18th, believing a little more in Brown's power and contact skills. Two more interesting splits: Kevin ranked Red Sox outfielder Brandon Jacobs No. 46 while Keith didn't have him in the top 100; Keith liked Mariners shortstop Nick Franklin at No. 57 while Kevin had him unranked.
• ESPNBoston's Joe McDonald talks with former Red Sox skipper Terry Francona, who will miss his first spring training in 31 years.
• The Yankees blog at ESPNNewYork is continuing its countdown of 25 questions in 25 days. A lot of fun stuff there, including questions like "Is this now Alex Rodriguez's team?" and "How good will Michael Pineda be?"
• Richard Durrett continues his in-depth position-by-position outlook for the Rangers. Check out his analysis at the Rangers blog at ESPNDallas.
• Joe Posnanski with a fun post on aging and great seasons. He looks at hitters with seasons of 6.0 WAR or higher and breaks them down by age. The peak age for greatness: 26, with 115 seasons. The number of great seasons starts declining from there, but takes a big hit age 32, with only 68 such seasons. By age 34 we're down to 31 such seasons.
• Kate Upton graces this year's Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue cover. She also has some helpful advice for David Price, Justin Verlander, C.J. Wilson and Jay Bruce. OK, cheap promo, but it does beg the question: Who invited the outfielder?
• Geoff Baker the Seattle Times profiles new Mariners reliever Hong-Chih Kuo, who battled anxiety issues and the "yips" last season with the Dodgers. Kuo was one of the majors' most dominant relievers in 2010, so he could be one of the offseason's best sleeper pickups.
• Jonah Keri asks: Whatever happened to the spitball? One of the highlights of my life as a baseball fan was being at the Kingdome in 1982 when Gaylord Perry got ejected for the only time in his career for throwing a spitball. Perry's young daughter, when once asked if her daddy threw a spitter, replied, "It's a hard slider."
• Bill James (subscription only) has a piece on 1960s catchers. No catcher who played primarily in that decade has made the Hall of Fame, but what was most interesting was a sidebar to the piece detailing the 1963 AL MVP race, won by Yankees catcher Elston Howard. Basically, the AL had no clear MVP candidate that year. Bob Allison of the Twins had the highest WAR (7.5) and fared best in James' Win Shares system. He led the AL with 99 runs scored and a .911 OPS but hit just .155 and went homerless in 17 games against the pennant-winning Yankees. Allison finished 15th in the MVP voting, which Howard won in what was probably the third-best season of his career.
• Matthew Carruth looks at relative strikeout rates for pitchers and unearths a gem of a season I was unfamiliar with: Ted Wingfield of the 1927 Red Sox struck out one batter in 74.2 innings. Yep, one batter. We know it happened in this game, although we don't have the play-by-play. I'm guessing it was pitcher Lefty Grove. And you won't be surprised to know that Wingfield didn't pitch in the majors again after 1927. Or that the Red Sox finished 51-103 that year.

Since I wrote about Jay Bruce (plus Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus), it follows that we should do an over/under on him.

So how many home runs will Bruce hit in 2012?

It's hard to believe Bruce has already been around four seasons, but doesn't turn 25 until April. He's coming off a season in which he played 157 games and hit 32 home runs. Well the raw totals were a career high that was a function of playing time. His home run rates were similar to his previous seasons:

2011: 4.8% HR rate, 13.2% HR/FB rate
2010: 4.4% HR rate, 12.2% HR/FB rate
2009: 5.7% HR rate, 15.5% HR/FB rate
2008: 4.7% HR rate, 14.2% HR/FB rate

Bruce split his home runs evenly in 2011 -- 16 at home, 16 on the road; however, he has a large split over his career, with 61 at home and 39 on the road.

The Bill James projection system has Bruce at 32 home runs. RotoChamp has Bruce at 32 home runs. Dan Szymborski's ZiPS predicts 28 home runs. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system predicts 31 home runs.

We'll put the over/under at 31.5.

A year ago, Jay Bruce was coming off a superb 2010. In his age-23 season, he'd hit .281/.353/.493 with 25 home runs in 148 games, including .306 with 15 home runs in just 186 at-bats in the second half. With that surge in mind, Bruce appeared to be an obvious breakout candidate and even sleeper MVP pick in some quarters.

Likewise, Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus had played well as 23-year-olds in 2010. All three had come up through the minors as prized prospects and with the belief that young players mature and improve as they head into their peak seasons (generally 25 to 30), there were big expectations for the trio.

I wasn't necessarily quite so sure. Before the season, I wrote an article headlined "Why Jay Bruce may have reached his peak." The article was based on some anecdotal evidence that not all good age-23 hitters take a big leap forward. Here's how the three guys performed in 2011:

Bruce
2010: .281/.353/.493, 124 OPS+, 4.4 HR%, 10.1 BB%, 23.7 SO%
2011: .256/.341/.474, 119 OPS+, 4.8 HR%, 10.7 BB%, 23.7 SO%

Bruce failed to capitalize on his big 2010 second half and basically showed the same performance and skill set as 2010. He did make his first All-Star team and remained healthy, playing in 157 games.

McCutchen
2010: .286/.365/.449, 121 OPS+, 2.5 HR%, 10.7 BB%, 13.6 SO%
2011: .259/.364/.456, 127 OPS+, 3.4 HR%, 13.1 BB%, 18.7 SO%

McCutchen had appeared to make The Leap with a monster first half, hitting .291/.390/.505. He was one of the best players in the National League, but tailed off to a .216 average in the second half. Some felt he got too homer-happy and while he did hit a few more home runs and draw more walks, the decrease in batting average meant his overall production was essentially identical to 2010. The numbers show that he struck out more often in the second half and his batting average on balls in play dropped from .319 to .251. Some of that could be attributed to bad luck, but that could also be the result of hitting too many fly balls.

Rasmus
2010: .276/.361/.498, 132 OPS+, 4.3 HR%, 11.8 BB%, 27.7 SO%
2011: .225/.298/.391, 89 OPS+, 2.7 HR%, 9.5 BB%, 22.1 SO%

Rasmus actually was good through April, hitting .301 with a .392 on-base percentage, but then he hit .253 in May and .213 in June and somewhere in there he feuded with Tony La Russa. The Cardinals traded him to the Blue Jays, he hurt his wrist and hit just .173 in 35 games with Toronto.

So what can we predict for their futures? I thought I'd run another little anecdotal list of similar players. I checked all outfielders who were regulars at age 23 since 1969 and posted an OPS+ between 115 and 145. This eliminates the guys who were superstars early on, like Reggie Jackson or Ken Griffey Jr. or Vladimir Guerrero, and gives us a list of players with similar production. How much better did these players get?



The short answer of what the chart means: Nine of the players showed a noteworthy improvement from their age-23 OPS+ to their average OPS+ from 25 to 30. (Those eight: Jack Clark, Tim Raines, Danny Tartabull, Rickey Henderson, Rafael Palmeiro, Jim Rice, Bobby Murcer, Dave Winfield, Amos Otis). Two would have a late-career surge in their 30s (Ellis Burks, Luis Gonzalez). The list has produced three Hall of Famers (Henderson, Rice, Winfield) and two more Hall candidates in Raines and Palmeiro, plus Andruw Jones if you want to consider him. But the list also contains guys like Lloyd Moseby, a terrific all-around player at 23 in what proved to be his best season. Or Willie Montanez, who hit 30 home runs as a rookie but only hit 20 once more in his career.

Based on this chart, there's about a one-in-three chance that a 23-year-old who has already put up good numbers will improve. Considering we're talking about three players here ... I guess that means one of the three will make The Leap.

My pick, not surprisingly, would be on McCutchen. He has the best all-around game of the three, draws walks and strikes out considerably less than the other two. His second-half struggles are a concern and he needs to get back to a solid approach at the plate and take his home runs when they come.

That doesn't mean Bruce doesn't have a 40-homer season in him or Rasmus puts it all together in Toronto.

In the end, we don't really know. As our SweetSpot blog affiliate says, you can't predict baseball.

Considering that the Cincinnati Reds play in a division they won by five games in 2010 and in which the other contenders have been hit with injuries to key players in 2011, you might have expected them to be sitting in a very comfortable position by now. Instead, after a 5-4 loss in Milwaukee on Thursday, they’re on the wrong side of .500 at 44-45 and trail the Brewers, Cardinals and even the Pirates in the NL Central. They’re 7-12 since a three-game sweep of the Dodgers in mid-June. For all that, they’re still just three games out of first place. Can the ship be righted, and how?

The team took a stab at dealing with its two most obvious problems on Thursday. They demoted Edinson Volquez, who had been walking nearly six men per game on the way to a 5.93 ERA and may be replaced by an apparently resurgent Dontrelle Willis. And they gave a long-overdue promotion to shortstop prospect Zack Cozart, who had been hitting .310/.357/.467 and will be given an opportunity to replace the shockingly poor production they had been receiving from Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria, who have combined to produce -0.1 wins above replacement (WAR), according to FanGraphs.com. Both moves represent huge steps in the right direction.

Those weren’t the only problems this team has, however. Bronson Arroyo has arguably struggled even more than Volquez, and his veteran status and hefty price tag running through 2013 make him a harder burden to shake off than Volquez. Travis Wood has been similarly ineffective if you go by his 5.11 ERA, though his 4.11 FIP suggests he’s been mostly unlucky. All told, for all the preseason talk about the great starting rotation depth, and despite a great first 11 starts from Johnny Cueto, Reds starters entered Thursday with a 4.60 ERA, second-to-last in the National League, and tied for last with just 3.5 FanGraphs WAR.

Outside of that little rotation issue, though -- and that’s a big one -- it’s hard to pinpoint areas in which this team has gone wrong. They’ve gone with an unorthodox sort of three-headed-monster approach in left field, dividing the position among Chris Heisey, Jonny Gomes and Fred Lewis. Yet all three have been effective, with Gomes and Heisey providing good offense and Lewis good defense, combining for 3.1 WAR. It’s starting to look like Scott Rolen’s bat has fallen off the old-age table, but he appears to be making up for it with his still-excellent defense, and his oft-used substitute Miguel Cairo (against all odds) has been solid with both bat and glove. At catcher, first, second, center and right, the Reds have received well above-average play (at least), and the bullpen has been solid. One would think a team with this lineup would be better than 44-45, even with a shaky rotation.

And in at least one sense, they have been better than that. Coming into Thursday, the Reds’ “Pythagorean record” -- the record suggested by their run differential -- was 47-41, which would have them tied for first place in the division. A negative disparity between a team’s Pythagorean and actual record sometimes suggests a managerial failing of some kind, but I don’t see a lot of evidence of that here. Dusty Baker certainly has his flaws (ones we in the sabermetric community are all too aware of), and sometimes makes some interesting decisions regarding the use of his bullpen and other personnel, and it’s possible that his decision-making has lost some close games. There’s no hard data to back that up, though, and anecdotally, most Reds fans I know seem to think that Dusty is doing a better job of in-game managing this year than he has in the past.

Rather, the discrepancy seems to be the result of a lack of “clutch hitting” by the Reds; the team’s .259/.330/.403 overall line (through Wednesday) slips to .237/.313/.343 in “late and close” situations, suggesting that they’re finding it easier to score runs when ahead or trailing by a bunch than they are late in a tight game, when each individual run matters a bit more. The team’s overall hitting line is above the NL average, but its “late and close” line is slightly below average across the board. (The NL “late and close” average entering Thursday was .244/.322/.359.)

So the Reds’ problems, after dealing with their shortstops and Volquez, seem to boil down to Arroyo, Wood and clutch hitting. The last bit can’t be dealt with; study has shown that “clutch,” to the extent it exists, is impossible to separate from simple dumb luck, good or bad. Wood should be fine for essentially the same reason: He has really struggled with runners in scoring position, and unless the team has some reason to believe he has problems pitching out of the stretch or gets more rattled than most do with men on second or third, those numbers should get better. Arroyo on the other hand has been legitimately struggling for two months, and is a real worry; if they’re willing to recognize his huge contract as a sunk cost and move him to a long-relief role (or off the team entirely), and in favor of Sam LeCure (if healthy) a possible acquisition on the trade market, that could really improve the team going forward.

For the most part, though, the Reds have done almost everything they can by finally calling up Cozart and demoting Volquez. Most else is out of their control: The hits should get more timely, and the non-Arroyo pitching should get better. Even the hitters who are doing well in 2011 -- Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce, in particular -- have shown themselves capable of doing even better. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see one or more of them get incredibly hot and carry the team over the second half.

Looking up at three other teams at the All-Star break is never a good place to be, but the Reds seem about as well-positioned to make a second-half run as a fourth-place team could get.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Bill Parker writes for The Platoon Advantage. Follow him on Twitter: @Bill_TPA.

San Francisco Giants cleanup hitters are batting .252/.324/.378, for a .703 OPS that ranks 23rd in the majors. Reds cleanup hitters are performing even more poorly, with a .249/.323/.377 line. Both teams have a used a variety of guys in the four-hole: Buster Posey, Aubrey Huff and a slew of others guys for the Giants (Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, Pablo Sandoval); for the Reds, Brandon Phillips hit OK there, but Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce have hit poorly when batting cleanup.

Both the Giants and Reds are playoff contenders, so my question: Can you make the playoffs with poor production from your cleanup position?

Going back over the past five seasons (40 playoff teams), here are the teams that ranked in the bottom third in the majors in OPS from the cleanup spot.

2010 Giants: .788 (21st)
2009 Dodgers: .769 (23rd)
2008 Dodgers: .778 (26th)
2007 Diamondbacks: .812 (21st)
2007 Angels: .801 (23rd)
2006 Padres: .802 (27th)
2006 Tigers: .805 (25th)
2006 Twins: .764 (28th)

Eight teams made the playoffs and two -- last year's Giants and the 2006 Tigers -- reached the World Series. Some of these teams resolved cleanup issues as the season progressed. For example, the 2006 Twins had Rondell White hitting there early on and he went 6-for-64 in the four-hole. Michael Cuddyer ended up with the most playing time there. The 2006 Twins are also a prime example of why you can't assume 100 RBIs means you're getting great production from the cleanup spot: Despite ranking 28th in the majors in OPS that year, Twins cleanup hitters still drove in 107 runs. Nearly every team gets 100 RBIs from the cleanup position.

The 2008 and 2009 Dodgers made the playoffs in back to back years despite subpar production from their cleanup hitters. In 2008, it was mostly Jeff Kent and James Loney hitting there before Manny Ramirez was acquired at the trade deadline. Ramirez was terrific in the cleanup spot but Joe Torre ended up using Ramirez as his No. 3 down the stretch and in the playoffs that year (with Russell Martin and Andre Ethier hitting cleanup). In 2009, five players started at least 20 games in the cleanup spot -- Casey Blake, Ethier, Matt Kemp, Ramirez and Loney. All told, Dodgers cleanup guys hit .265 with 19 home runs that year.

Last year's Giants similarly used several players there. Huff began the season hitting cleanup. Oddly, Bruce Bochy tried Bengie Molina there for a couple weeks, even though Huff had been hitting well. Eventually, the team would settle on Huff hitting third and Posey hitting cleanup. Huff and Posey actually hit well; Burrell's .155 mark in 30 games in the cleanup spot dragged down the team totals.

The problem Bochy faces this year is the lack of an alternative as viable as Posey. He's been trying Huff there lately, and after a slow start he has been hitting better, so he's the guy for now. In Cincinnati, Dusty Baker would undoubtedly prefer to keep Joey Votto and Bruce -- who both hit left-handed -- separated in the order by the right-handed Rolen, but Rolen just hasn't produced. Baker may be better off hitting Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey in the 1-2 spots, and moving Phillips back to the cleanup spot if he doesn't want the two lefties hitting back to back.

In the end, neither team is necessarily doomed by their cleanup production, but it's a key aspect to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

OK, we had so much fun with the first round of the mock "franchise player draft" that we decided to conduct a second round -- primarily because we were shocked that Miguel Cabrera went unselected.

So we decided to see who the next 30 players might be. Now, the owners below didn't draft the players, but we included the names since the first-round pick may have affected the second-round pick. Dave went first and made all the odd picks, while Eric made the even selections.

31. Doug Glanville (Wilson Ramos): Miguel Cabrera -- Best hitter on the board, could have easily gone in the top 10. Not much defensively or in the car, but he can rake.

32. Tristan H. Cockcroft (Justin Upton): Adrian Gonzalez -- How are these great offensive monsters slipping so far? Tristan would have his 3-4 hitters for a while.

33. Barry Larkin (Roy Halladay): Jay Bruce -- Roy says he wants a big power bat for the middle of the order. And Bruce is a solid defender as well and just 24.

34. Buster Olney (Michael Pineda): Ryan Zimmerman -– It’s good to have strong defense at the hot corner, and Zimmerman brings that. Hopefully he brings more health, but he’s only 26.

35. Jonah Keri (Jose Bautista): Jered Weaver -- This team is in win-now mode with Bautista, so we’ll go with Jered Weaver, the best ace left on the board.

36. Tim Kurkjian (Clayton Kershaw): Tommy Hanson -- Why stop with one ace? Timmy would have the best one-two rotation punch in baseball!

37. Jayson Stark (Carlos Gonzalez): Jose Reyes -- We thought about the appropriately named Jayson Nix, but we’ll take a 28-year shortstop having his best season.

38. Rick Sutcliffe (Neftali Feliz): Elvis Andrus -- One Texas Ranger isn’t enough, and while Reyes is terrific, Andrus is 22 and has a lot of growing to do. Someday soon, he could be Reyes.

39. Kevin Goldstein (Stephen Strasburg): Eric Hosmer -- KG is a prospect hound so let’s give him Hosmer, who could be the best hitter in the game in a couple of years ... and the next decade after that.

40. Mark Mulder (Mike Stanton): Cole Hamels -- Gotta love the lefties! You say Weaver is the best ace on the board … I beg to differ!

41. Matt Meyers (Hanley Ramirez): Andrew McCutchen -- At least Eric didn’t give Mulder Ryan Howard. I’ll take the five-tool center fielder to go with our five-tool shortstop.

42. Jerry Crasnick (Starlin Castro): Matt Kemp -- Well, I had McCutchen all ready to go there, but Jerry profiled Matt Kemp back in March, and I got the feeling he believed a rebound season was coming. Kemp is, after all, only 26.

43. Christina Kahrl (Buster Posey): Colby Rasmus -- You can have Kemp. I'll take the center fielder with good on-base skills, power, good defense and is two years younger.

44. Jason Churchill (Carlos Santana): Jeremy Hellickson -- Jason’s catcher needs someone to throw to him. Hellickson might end up the AL Rookie of the Year, and there’s no reason he can’t keep improving.

45. Steve Berthiaume (Justin Verlander): Dustin Pedroia -- Off to a slow start, but he's a good hitter and fielder at a premium position. Plus, Steve is a big Sox fan.

46. Jim Caple (Joe Mauer): Prince Fielder -– At least one of Caple’s players should be durable and possess power. Fielder certainly can hit home runs. And when he moves Mauer from behind the plate, it wouldn’t be to first base, anyway!

47. Aaron Boone (Robinson Cano): CC Sabathia -- With Cano on board, Boone wants to win now, so it's the big, workhorse lefty who still has 7-8 more good years in. Or maybe 15 if he goes to Bartolo Colon's doctor.

48. Jim Bowden (David Price): Manny Machado –- Jim does love the prospects, and why do I (Bryce Harper) and Jason Grey (Mike Trout) get all the fun of choosing minor leaguers? Machado is an easily projectable shortstop and I’m sure Jim would agree he is worth waiting until 2013 for.

49. Jason Grey (Mike Trout): Brett Anderson: Jason is crushed by the Machado pick, but Anderson is a nice consolation prize.

50. Orel Hershiser (Jon Lester): Brian McCann -- I knew Grey would have wanted Machado! Orel probably scoffed at that and myriad other picks. He wants to win right now. McCann is arguably the best offensive catcher (with power) in the game, and he’s 27. Orel would love this pick!

51. Mark Simon (Ryan Braun): Drew Stubbs -- Mets fan Simon can't pull the trigger on David Wright and takes Stubbs and his 30/30 potential and terrific range in center.

52. Eric Karabell (Bryce Harper): Mat Latos -- Hey, it’s actually my pick! I’d better get my ace here. I considered Zack Greinke, but Latos is four years younger, and even if my home ballpark is small, I think Latos could overcome it. Plus, I’ll get him more run support.

53. Enrique Rojas (Albert Pujols): Carl Crawford -- Obviously, we're banking on both Pujols and Crawford just having slow starts. They'll bounce back ... right???

54. Jorge Arangure Jr. (Jason Heyward): Matt Wieters -- Jorge said he chose Heyward because he wanted a gifted offensive force for another 15 years. Enter Wieters, who will hit and head to many All-Star games.

55. Chris Singleton (Josh Johnson): Asdrubal Cabrera -- Nice grab on Wieters there, EK. I'm a believer in Cabrera, who is just 25 and pounding the ball so far this season. Even if he fades, we're talking about a switch-hitting shortstop with 15-20 homers and solid D.

56. Amy Nelson (Tim Lincecum): Logan Morrison -- Amy has her freaky ace, now she gets a young on-base machine developing power quicker than most thought. Plus, Amy and Logan will be Tweeting about their franchise 24/7. It’s a win-win.

58. David Schoenfield (Felix Hernandez): Pepe Frias -- HA! I control Schoenfield’s pick here! He gets the late-1970s shortstop that slugged .290 in his career, with one home run (off John Candelaria, no less) and he’s 62 years old. OK, he can have Shin-Soo Choo. We know he’s got power and good years left.

59. Keith Law (Evan Longoria): Brian Matusz. C'mon, EK, you know I'd take Terry Harmon over Pepe Frias. Give Klaw Matusz, a future Cy Young winner ... with the Yankees.

60. Karl Ravech (Troy Tulowitzki): Mark Teixeira -- All the things that Karl mentioned on his first overall pick make sense here. Consistent power, contract is set, winning organization ... Karl’s gonna score some runs! Plus, with the 61st pick in the franchise draft, he could always get some pitching ... wanna keep going?

This was going to be an ode to the Milwaukee Brewers and their recent strong play: How Ryan Braun is playing like an MVP, and how Prince Fielder is driving in runs, and Yovani Gallardo is red hot and Carlos Gomez is running down everything in center field.

But, of course, the Brewers lost 7-3 to the Reds, so instead let’s play a little game of “Real or Not Real.”

The Brewers will win the NL Central: REAL. If I had to make a call right now, I’d lean to the Brewers. Their rotation is the best in the division, and Gallardo (7-2, 3.89) and Zack Greinke (3-1, 5.79) are just starting to pitch well. Put it this way: I expect those two to drastically outperform Kyle McClellan (6-2, 3.86) and Kyle Lohse (7-2, 2.13) the rest of the season, and I also expect some of the Cardinals’ hitters to fall off their early pace.

The Brewers have some flaws: REAL. They can’t afford to suffer any significant injuries, because the bench is terrible and the bullpen is thin. They’re only 8-18 on the road (including 0-4 at Cincinnati, including a season-opening sweep). Keep a close eye in June on that road: Beside two more in Cincy, they have four at Florida, four at the Cubs, three at Boston and three at the Yankees. Those two trips to Boston and New York could be huge ... especially since the Cardinals don’t play either team.

Wait, so the MLB schedule is as messed up as I just made it sound: REAL.. This is the deep, dark, dirty secret of the 2011 season. The luck of the schedule could end up playing a huge factor in who makes the playoffs.

Albert Pujols’ slump: REAL. Here’s the thing: Albert Pujols doesn’t go into slumps. In the first 10 years of his career, check out his OPS totals by month:

1.000 or greater: 39 times
.900 to .999: 16 times
.800 to .899: 3 times
.700 to .799: 2 times

The two months under .800 came in July of 2001, his rookie season, when he hit .241/.333/.460 for a .793 OPS; and June of 2006, when he had a .715 OPS but played just 10 games.

So that means the first two months of 2011 were the worst of his career. He had a .758 OPS in April and .684 in May entering Monday night (when he hit just his second home run of the month). He’s grounded into an astounding 16 double plays, putting him on pace to break Jim Rice’s single-season record of 36 in 1984. Rice had led the AL in 1983 with 39 home runs, but never again hit 30 and never again slugged .500. He was 31 in 1984 ... the same age as Pujols right now. Is he hurt? Just in a two-month slump of hitting too many groundballs? Pressing because of his free agency status? Or is this a legitimate career crisis? I’m sure he’ll do better the rest of the season, but I think the days of Albert Pujols posting 1.000 OPS totals may be a thing of the past.

Jay Bruce’s power: REAL. After his strong second half in 2010, many projected a breakout season for Cincinnati’s right fielder. He has 12 home runs in May, giving him 16 on the season. Most impressively, he’s split that total evenly between home and road, after always having a huge disparity in his career (19 of his 25 home runs last year came at home).

The Diamondbacks as NL West contenders: REAL. They’ve won 13 of 14, their season run differential is now plus-22, the starting pitching -- led by Ian Kennedy -- has been solid, J.J. Putz has been lights-out as closer, and Ryan Roberts, Stephen Drew and Miguel Montero all rank in the top 20 in the NL in on-base percentage ... but the main reason they’re contenders? It’s the NL West!

Jose Bautista is a clown: NOT REAL. A guy with an 0-8 record ripping an opponent for not running out a pop fly just doesn’t have the same gravitas as Carlton Fisk telling Deion Sanders to act like a professional.

The Mariners as AL West contenders: NOT REAL. I optimistically said on the “Baseball Today” podcast last week that they could win 78 games. OK, maybe that does make them contenders in the West. But check out their schedule until the All-Star break: Orioles, Rays, White Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins, Braves, Padres, A’s, Angels. If they’re still two games out at the All-Star break, then I’ll start believing.

Michael Pineda: REAL. Hey, I’ve gone two or three days without making a Pineda reference.

I’m going to buy one of the special Memorial Day two-panel caps with the white front: NOT REAL. White caps? No thanks.

Bartolo Colon: REAL. He may not stay healthy for 30 starts, but there’s nothing fluky about his open to the year. After blanking the A’s with a four-hit shutout on Monday, he’s 3-3 with a 3.26 ERA. He has a 62/15 strikeout/walk ratio and is throwing in the low 90s. He basically rears back and throws moving fastballs down in the zone. Nothing fancy about it, but absolutely legit.

Matt Joyce is the second-best hitter in the AL: NOT REAL. He’s currently leading the AL in batting average while ranking second in slugging percentage and third in on-base percentage. He’s a good hitter and he’s been a season-saver for the Rays as they wait for Evan Longoria to get untracked, but Joyce’s current BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is over .400 and the only player in the past decade that has maintained that for an entire season (Jose Hernandez hit .404 in 2002).

Jair Jurrjens, NL All-Star starter: REAL. How’s Edgar Renteria working out in Detroit? Critics point to Jurrjens’ 5.2 K/9 rate and .262 BABIP to suggest the ERA will rise. Well, of course it will rise from 1.51, but I still think he can keep it under 3.00. He’s cut his walks in half from his career average and he keeps the ball in the park with that nasty sinker. Here’s another way to look at: The current NL runs per game average is about 4.1, about what it was in 1990-91. Over those two seasons, 17 NL starters had an ERA under 3.00 -- and seven of them did it with a strikeout rate less than 5.5 per nine innings. With scoring and home runs down, you don’t necessarily have to be a high-strikeout pitcher to succeed anymore, making Jurrjens kind of a 2011 version of Doug Drabek or Dennis Martinez. Don’t be surprised if Jurrjens gets the start for the National League for the All-Star Game.

The Twins will get an All-Star representative: REAL. I predict it will not be Drew Butera. (Actually, center fielder Denard Span, hitting .300 with solid defense, isn’t a terrible option.)

Ozzie Guillen is still baseball’s most entertaining manager: REAL. Makes you wish Twitter had been around when Billy Martin was managing.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Here are the top five reasons why Thursday's Coffee Talk, um, Baseball Today podcast with myself and Keith Law had all the emotions, from serious to silly and all between, and why you should listen:

1. It's a shame Buster Posey's season ended Wednesday night, but would there be calls to change the rules if it was someone else? We attack all angles of this situation.

2 Wilson Valdez saves the Phillies in the 19th inning! We discuss a very long game, the good, bad and unfortunate.

3. How can we avoid the Brewers being on fire? Well, we have reasons, but we deal with them today.

4. European baseball players and the "Big Whack": discuss. No, I can't discuss but this is right up Law's alley, and I learned something.

5. There will be much fun at Coors Field today. There generally is when Micah Owings is pitching ... and hitting!

Plus: Excellent emails, Oakland's offensive help in the minors, taking advantage of defensive shifts (or not) and even a little Mets talk in a Yankees-free but still crazy and wild Baseball Today podcast for Thursday!

The Phillies' victory in the early hours of Thursday morning was initially remarkable for how it started, with Roy Halladay on the mound against a Reds team he'd no-hit in the National League Division Series last year. But people won't easily forget how it finished, 19 innings later.

When infielder Wilson Valdez stepped onto the mound for the Phillies in the top of the 19th inning, he wasn't just being asked to do something out of the ordinary. True, Valdez was coming into a tie ballgame, which was unusual enough for a position player. But he was also facing as formidable a group of sluggers as the Cincinnati Reds possess, a trio that any full-time reliever would be worried about: reigning National League MVP Joey Votto, frequent All-Star Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce, who had hit his 13th home run of the 2011 season in the 10th inning.

Even though Valdez hit Rolen with a pitch after getting Votto to fly out to center, he managed to retire the side because he got to face Reds pitcher Carlos Fisher with two outs and that one man aboard. As a result, when the Phillies scored in the bottom of the 19th on Raul Ibanez's bases-loaded sacrifice fly, Valdez had earned his first win as a pitcher.

Valdez was not the first position player called upon to pitch in a bind, nor will he be the last. In fact, there are a number of memorable pitching performances by position players, but many of them took place in the midst of blowouts, rather than long extra-innings affairs. Of all of these, Valdez was the only player to earn a W for his efforts:

• On April 13, 2009, Nick Swisher of the Yankees was called in to pitch during the eighth inning of a 15-5 loss to the Rays. After walking the leadoff man, B.J. Upton, and allowing a base hit to Willy Aybar, Swisher retired the next three batters in order. He even earned his first major league strikeout when he threw a 78 mph fastball past the swinging Gabe Kapler. Swisher claimed that he had previously pitched as a freshman at Parkersburg High School in West Virginia.
• On August 19, 1997, David Wells allowed 11 earned runs in three innings for the Yankees against the Angels. Manager Joe Torre wanted to preserve the Yankees' bullpen, and originally considered third baseman Charlie Hayes as a relief pitcher. After several Yankees players pointed out that Wade Boggs had a great knuckleball, Torre instead called upon the future Hall of Fame third baseman. Torre was initially afraid that Boggs would be uncomfortable with the request, but it turned out that Boggs -- who often practiced his knuckleball before games -- was thrilled with the opportunity. Boggs faced four Angels batters in the eighth inning, and he got all of them off to 0-2 counts, allowing one walk and no hits during the appearance.
• By the eighth inning on June 17, 1993, the Rangers had already scored 18 runs against the Angels. Angels manager Buck Rodgers turned to outfielder Chili Davis. Davis pitched both the eighth and ninth innings, and although he hit Jose Canseco with a pitch, his performance was otherwise perfect. Davis joked that he had about seven different pitches he was able to use at any time, but that the only one working that night was his fastball.
• One position player pitching performance that is notorious for all the wrong reasons was when Canseco pitched the eighth inning for the Rangers on May 29, 1993. Texas was being clobbered by the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, so Canseco convinced manager Kevin Kennedy to let him pitch for an inning. Canseco allowed two hits, three walks and three runs during the 15-1 loss and blew his arm out, requiring season-ending surgery. Canseco was scheduled to make $4.8 million to make his living as a hitter that season, so that became one of the single most costly relief innings ever thrown.

After Valdez's success in the top half of the 19th, perhaps the Reds might have envied the Phillies for using a position player to pitch when their half of the inning rolled around. However, Dusty Baker had already emptied his bench of position players, although he had a pair of swingmen, Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney, still potentially available instead of sending out Fisher for a sixth inning of very long relief.

However, the last time Baker sent a position player to the mound for the Reds, nobody involved enjoyed any success: Shortstop Paul Janish came into a blowout against the Milwaukee Brewers on May 6, 2009, and allowed five additional runs to add an exclamation point to a 15-3 loss.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Stephanie Liscio is an obsessive Cleveland Indians fan and blogs about them at It's Pronounced "Lajaway," part of the SweetSpot network. She is also the author of "Integrating Cleveland Baseball."

April is in the books. May is here ... and so is our weekly stroll through the stats.

• Ike Davis had a solid rookie season, but I wasn't completely sold on his star potential. But the Mets first baseman is hitting .317/.398/.564 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage), including .318 with three of his five home runs at home.
• Justin Smoak did not have a solid rookie season despite his prospect pedigree, but he's living up to the hype in 2011, hitting .273/.387/.506. As Seattle's lone power threat, he's going to start seeing a lot of pitchers out of the strike zone that he'll need to show the discipline to lay off.
• Nice to see Brett Wallace hitting .382 for the Astros. Wallace was the 13th pick of the 2008 draft by the Cardinals, traded to the A's in the Matt Holliday deal, flipped to Toronto for Michael Taylor, then shipped to Houston for Anthony Gose. His 2010 debut with Houston was beyond bad, as he hit .222 with 50 strikeouts and eight walks in 159 PAs. Astros fans don't have much to cheer about these days, but Wallace is looking more like the hitter he was projected to be coming out of Arizona State. The home run power isn't there (one so far), but he's hit nine doubles.
• Since moving into the No. 2 spot in the Reds' lineup, ahead of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce has three home runs in six games.
• Brooks Conrad's flare to right field in the bottom of the ninth gave the Braves a 6-5 victory over the Cardinals on Sunday -- the fifth walk-off loss for St. Louis and its seventh loss after leading in the seventh inning or later. No other team has more than four such defeats.
• The Twins are hitting .230/.292/.324 and rank last in the AL in runs, batting average and slugging percentage. Nick Nelson breaks down some of the Twins' struggles. My favorite Twins line comes from catcher Drew Butera, who's hitting .106 in 50 PAs. Since 1980, the lowest average for a non-pitcher with at least 50 PAs is actually another Twins catcher: Tom Nieto hit .067 (4-for-60) for the 1988 Twins.
• The Vlad Watch: 108 PAs, no walks.
• Joaquin Benoit had a 1.34 ERA for the Rays in 2010, prompting the Tigers to sign him to a three-year, $16.5 million contract -- one of the biggest ever for a middle reliever, one with a 4.47 career ERA. After giving up three runs on Sunday, Benoit has allowed 11 runs already -- one more than all of 2010. Moral of the story: Never read too much into 60 fluke-ish innings.
• Jered Weaver looks to go 7-0 for the second time in his career in Monday's start against the Red Sox. According to Elias, only two other pitchers have won their first seven starts of a season -- Sadie McMahon, who did it in 1891 and 1895 for the Orioles, and Hall of Famer Mickey Welch, for the New York Giants in 1884 and '85. So, yes, it's been a while.
• Pitchers with at least five starts who have had a quality start each time: Weaver, Dan Haren, Justin Verlander and Josh Johnson (six each); and Michael Pineda, Jason Marquis and Josh Tomlin (five each).

No player has ever done to the New York Mets what Troy Tulowitzki did this week. No, not even Chipper Jones.

In a four-game series at Citi Field, Tulowitzki hit .625 (10-for-16) with four home runs and eight RBIs. Tulowitzki became the first player to homer in each game of a four-game series against the Mets. The Rockies swept all four games to increase their overall win streak to six games and their record to 10-2, the best in baseball and the best start in franchise history. What is even more enticing for Rockies fans is the notion that Tulowitzki has a wingman in Carlos Gonzalez, who is almost certainly going to go on a similar tear at some point. Yes, Tulo & CarGo could be a bad cop show from the '80s. They also may be the best 1-2 punch in baseball.

With only a two-week sample size available for 2011, let's take last season's basic numbers. Here are arguably the five best teammate duos in the game and where each pair ranks according to their combined 2010 statistics. In the interest of symmetry, I have excluded the Yankees' trio of Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira only because they are exactly that, a trio. This is about finding baseball's best 1-2 punch and it's hard to include two from the Yankees but leave out a third.



If we then apply an MVP-style voting system and award 5 points for finishing first in a category and 1 point for finishing fifth, the results are as follows:

Troy Tulowitzki/Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies: 16 points
Albert Pujols/Matt Holliday, Cardinals: 16 points
Josh Hamilton/Nelson Cruz, Rangers: 11 points
Joey Votto/Jay Bruce, Reds: 10 points
Prince Fielder/Ryan Braun, 7 points

If those numbers are too simplistic for you, let's metric-up for some deeper analysis. Weighted On-Base Average (or wOBA) includes all the different aspects of hitting and gauges each one based on its actual run value. It's the weighted part that gives you a more detailed number by which to measure what a batter did at the plate, giving more weight to home runs than singles, and so on. Tulowitzki and Gonzalez both ranked in the top 10 in wOBA last season. Hamilton and Cruz were the only other pair of teammates to do so with a minimum of 400 plate appearances.

WAR (wins above replacement) measures a player's value over over a replacement-level bench player. WAR includes everything a player does on the field -- hitting, fielding and baserunning -- and summarizes with a single number representing how many more wins that player is worth to his team than the replacement player who would play in his place. Using 2010 statistics, here's how our five teammate candidates rated by WAR:

Pujols (7.3)/Holliday (6.9) -- 14.2
Hamilton (8.0)/Cruz (5.1) -- 13.1
Votto (7.4)/Bruce (5.3) -- 12.7
Tulowitzki (6.4)/Gonzalez (6.0) -- 12.4
Fielder (4.1)/Braun (4.2) -- 8.3

Another reason WAR has value as an overall evaluation tool is because it does include defense. For instance: Despite hitting a relatively light .277 last season with five home runs and 47 RBIs, the Yankees' Brett Gardner had a WAR of 5.4, higher than Jay Bruce (5.3), Nelson Cruz (5.1), Ryan Braun (4.2) and Prince Fielder (4.1). One reason why was Gardner's Defensive Runs Saved score of +16, which tied for third among outfielders.

Defensive Runs Saved measures how many runs a player saved his team in the field when compared to the average player at that position. From 2007 through 2010, Tulowitzki ranked fourth in the major leagues in Defensive Runs Saved at +57, behind only Chase Utley (+75), Ryan Zimmerman (+73) and Adrian Beltre (+60). Gonzalez was 14th among outfielders from 2008 to 2009 at +20, but despite all those Web Gem catches in left field last season, Gonzalez actually plummeted to a -2 DRS in 2010. That was likely an aberration and considering Gonzalez's previous two seasons in the outfield and Tulowitzki's body of work at shortstop, the only duo among our five candidates that might challenge the Rockies' tandem defensively would be Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

What about the ability to lead or carry your team through critical stretches over the course of a season? As we saw last year and are seeing again this spring; the Tulo and CarGo show can often be baseball's version of must-see TV. These guys, for stretches of several weeks, can be electric. Tulowitzki has been baseball's best player going back to Labor Day. Since last September, the Rockies shortstop has a 1.198 OPS, 22 home runs and 54 RBIs, leading the major leagues in all three categories. Gonzalez has been slower carrying over his remarkable 2010 season, but he hit his first home run of the season on Thursday. Tulowitzki then followed with a home run in the very next at-bat. These two can be a force like no other in the game because they can both reach white-hot levels for weeks at a time.

Randy Robles from the Elias Sports Bureau provided this list of 2010 OPS leaders after the All-Star break (minimum 250 plate appearances). You'll note only one pair of teammates made the top 5:

Jose Bautista, Blue Jays -- 1.099 OPS
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies -- 1.091 OPS
Joey Votto, Reds -- 1.042 OPS
Albert Pujols, Cardinals -- 1.033 OPS
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies -- 1.020 OPS

Former pitcher and current "Baseball Tonight" analyst Curt Schilling pointed out that Colorado's current run of six straight wins, and 10 of its last 11, has happened with Gonzalez hitting a modest .260 to this point. In the meantime, it's Tulowitzki who is baseball's hottest player right now, hitting .364 and leading the majors with seven home runs. "He is not uncomfortable at the plate," Schilling said. "He's incredibly comfortable. A lot of his home runs came early in the at-bat or first pitch. But they're following pitches that aren't getting him to move his feet and I'm not talking about throwing at him or trying to drill him. I'm talking about getting him uncomfortable. He doesn't have any reason not to be settled in the box."

Former Reds star and "Baseball Tonight" analyst Barry Larkin has been admiring Tulowitzki's leadership qualities. "He's setting the tone," Larkin said. "He goes out there and he's got a strut about himself. He has a swagger about himself. I'm calling him 'Bad Dude' now, just because of the way he goes out and does his thing."

"Tulo & CarGo" could be a great cop show. They'd drive frantically around city streets, give each other sarcastic looks while arguing about their personal lives and get chewed out by their captain who's had enough of their screw-up antics and threatens to take away their detective badges. He might have them walking a beat or writing traffic tickets. Clearly "Tulo & CarGo" are best served working stadium duty.

(Justin Havens from our "Baseball Tonight" research staff was a great help in putting this post together. It's colleagues like Justin who make working on the show such a great experience.)

Follow Steve on Twitter at @sberthiaume.

I think most of us know this by now: A 21-year-old rookie with the same batting statistics as a 25-year-old rookie will almost always go on to have a much longer, productive career than the 25-year-old. Likewise, we assume a 23-year-old has more potential to improve than a 26-year-old, who has already reached the age that most players peak.

Because of this, Jay Bruce is a popular breakout candidate for 2011. He was 23 years old last season, has three major league seasons under his belt, has the prospect pedigree, and just feels like a guy ready to take one final leap to stardom. I'm on that bandwagon: I do a feel a monster season coming on for Cincinnati’s 24-year-old right fielder.

Even though the Reds won the NL Central, Bruce's 2010 campaign (.281/.353/.493, 25 home runs, great defense that Baseball Prospectus rated as the best in the majors for any outfielder) fell under the radar for several reasons:

(A) He hadn’t been very good in 2009, when he hit just .223 and then suffered a broken wrist;

(B) He got off to a slow start (.266/.339/.446 with 36 RBIs in the first half);

(C) Joey Votto was, you know, getting a lot of attention.

In the second half everything clicked, perhaps in part because Bruce's wrist was 100 percent. In 210 plate appearances, he hit .306/.376/.575 with 15 home runs. You can do the math and triple those numbers to approximate a full season of PAs and understand why some believe Bruce could hit 35 homers, score close to 100 runs and drive in 100-plus. Factor in that he’s still young, has big-time tools (he was once Baseball America’s No. 1 overall prospect), is more than a year removed from the broken wrist and showed a small spike in his walk rate, and he looks like a player who will improve.

That’s my belief; I think he’s a good bet for fantasy players and a good bet to make Reds fans happier than a basset hound running on a beach. But -- yes, there is a "but" here -- there’s something else in play. Even though the axiom is that young players improve and that hitters generally peak at around 26 to 28, it’s possible that Bruce has already reached his peak ability. Just because he’s 23 and has areas that he could improve doesn’t mean he will improve.

I checked out the 20 best 23-year-old hitters over the past 10 seasons (minimum 502 plate appearances, using OPS+ from Baseball-Reference.com). Bruce ranks 12th on that list with the 127 OPS+ he registered in 2010. The guys on this were already good hitters at 23, so we’re asking: How much better do they get?

The answer, at least with this group: Not much. Hitters ranging from Albert Pujols to Miguel Cabrera to Joe Mauer to David Wright to Nick Markakis were essentially fully developed hitters by 23.

Here’s the chart:



This isn’t to suggest all 23-year-olds won’t improve (such as Carlos Gonzalez making a big leap last season at 24); it’s a possible indicator that if you’re talented enough to reach the majors at 21 like most of these guys and already an excellent hitter by 23, you may not improve much more. Bruce has shown steady progress since his debut in 2008, but he also had a high .334 average on balls in play last year. It's possible he'll regress back to his .299 career average. It's why Baseball Prospectus projects Bruce to essentially repeat his 2010 numbers: .269/.339/.482.

I'll still hold out for a leap -- more walks, fewer strikeouts, 30-plus homers -- and fans of Colby Rasmus and Andrew McCutchen are surely expecting a similar leap. Maybe the wrist injury did hold him back early in 2010, but it’s possible Bruce will settle in as a very good player and potential Gold Glover, albeit not quite a perennial All-Star type.

Final note: It's possible, of course, that PED usage may have some unknown influence on the above results. I'll do a future post to look at a wider swath of good 23-year-old hitters going back more years.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

Nobody seems to respect the NL Central much. Adam Wainwright’s injury won’t fix the belief that this is baseball’s weakest division. But your weakness is my parity. Your 2011 NL Central preseason All-Stars:

Catcher -- Geovany Soto, Cubs. After a sophomore slump, Soto rebounded with an excellent .280/.393/497 line. Among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, Soto ranked third in OBP (behind only Joe Mauer and Carlos Ruiz) and second in slugging (behind Buster Posey).

First base -- Albert Pujols, Cardinals. Pujols and Joey Votto ruled the division in 2010, but will Prince Fielder have a monster season as he gets ready for free agency?

Second base -- Rickie Weeks, Brewers. Remained completely healthy (160 games) for the first time and delivered the season everyone’s been waiting for. Doesn’t have the glove of Brandon Phillips, but gets on base more, and Phillips benefits from the cozy dimensions of Great American Ball Park.

Third base -- Pedro Alvarez, Pirates. I expect big offensive numbers in his first full season, but will his fielding remain so terrible as to cancel out much of his hitting value?

Shortstop – Starlin Castro, Cubs. Picking Castro over this motley crew is like picking Brooklyn Decker to win a beauty contest with Roseanne Barr and women Tiger Woods meets at Perkins. That said, Castro has a chance to become a huge star in this game. Enjoy him, Cubs fans.

Left field -- Ryan Braun, Brewers. Tough call between Braun and Matt Holliday. Braun’s defense, once a big strike against him, seemed to improve last season. His overall numbers weren’t as good as in 2009, but I think he’ll get back to 30-plus homers and once again top .300.

Center field -- Andrew McCutchen, Pirates. I wrote an entry that suggested McCutchen will be the majors’ best all-around center fielder in 2011, so I'd better stick with that here. This position is the strongest in the division, as you can argue cases for Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, Michael Bourn and Marlon Byrd.

Right field -- Jay Bruce, Reds. I’m not a huge Hunter Pence fan, so I’m giving the nod to Bruce, who had a big second half after being fully recovered from his broken wrist of 2009. Pence is a nice player and he’s only missed 14 games over the past three seasons -- an underrated asset of any player that is often ignored -- but he’s too much of a free-swinger for my taste.

Right-handed starter -- Zack Greinke, Brewers. As you can see in the poll to the right, there are several strong candidates, plus others not listed (Edinson Volquez, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster; we can only fit five options in a poll). Assuming Greinke only misses a couple of starts, his transition to the NL and proven 200-inning durability bodes well for some nice numbers.

Left-handed starter -- Wandy Rodriguez, Astros. Buyer beware, as Rodriguez has battled some shoulder tendinitis this spring, but MLB.com reports that Rodriguez felt good after throwing four strong innings against the Nationals on Tuesday. Jaime Garcia had a terrific rookie season, but he struggled a bit in the second half, and we’ll see how he responds to a tougher workload.

Closer -- Carlos Marmol, Cubs. One of the most unique, fascinating pitchers I’ve seen. He walks everybody, strikes out nearly everybody he doesn’t walk, doesn’t give up home runs (three in the past two seasons), and must be simultaneously infuriating and intoxicating for Cubs fans.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.