SweetSpot: Jered Weaver
Jake Peavy the best pitcher in baseball
May, 10, 2012
May 10
12:43
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
There was a time when Jake Peavy was mentioned in the same breath as pitchers like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. There was a time when Peavy might have been better than all of them -- the best in the game, in fact.
The last year he started 30 games was in 2007. That season he led the National League in wins, ERA, strikeouts, fewest baserunners allowed per nine innings and most strikeouts per nine. He was the only starter in the major leagues with an ERA under 3.00. He collected all 32 first-place votes in the NL Cy Young Award balloting.
"I can definitely get better," Peavy said after winning the award. "I've got a long way to go to be who I want to be." Maybe he was referring to not throwing a complete game that season. Maybe he was referring to Game No. 163, the playoff tiebreaker in Colorado. Peavy gave up 10 hits and six runs in 6 1/3 innings in a game the Padres eventually lost in the 13th inning. He was 26 years old, a Cy Young winner with two ERA titles under his belt, but he still wanted to prove he was the best pitcher in baseball.
AROUND THE SWEETSPOT NETWORK
Camden Depot
Still in shock after watching the Orioles take five of six from the Yankees and Sox, I figure it's time to start digging into the particulars of the 2012 season. It's still about four weeks too early, in my mind, to get too attached to a narrative, but let's be honest -- O's fans haven't had excitement like this in a long time. Over the next two weeks we hope to tick through some of the key components to Baltimore's hot start (certain players and stats) in order to make a determination as to whether these are trends are likely to continue. We start with the player Camden Depot highlighted as the contributor fans should be most excited about entering 2012: Matt Wieters.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Beaneball
What are the alternatives to sending Jemile Weeks to Triple-A? His .188/.260/.304 batting line won't play anywhere in the lineup, but if you can reduce his effect on any given game from five plate appearances to four by hitting him eighth or ninth instead of first, then maybe you let him work out his issues at the bottom of the order. There's also the old "give him two days off and let him rest his mind" trick.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Fire Brand of the AL
Daisuke Matuszaka wasn't pleased with his rehab start Monday night for the Pawtucket Red Sox against the Rochester Red Wings. Matsuzaka pitched 4 2/3 innings and allowed zero runs and two hits. But even though he struck out four, he also walked three and threw just 49 of 87 pitches for strikes.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
It's an amazing comeback story from a guy who has battled four years of injuries, and not just the routine battle scars that pitchers have to overcome. In 2010, he feared his career could be over. A quick look back at that list of injuries:
2008: He went on the disabled in May with a sore elbow, missed a month and ended up making 27 starts and posting a 2.85 ERA.
2009: Strained a tendon in his right ankle rounding a base in late May, an injury that eventually landed him on the DL. Traded to the White Sox while disabled, Peavy returned in September to make three strong starts. In 16 starts, he finished 9-6 with a 3.45 ERA.
2010: In July, Peavy ruptured the tendon that attaches the latissimus dorsi muscle to the rear of the right shoulder. He became the first major league pitcher to undergo an experimental surgery involving stitches and titanium anchors. His season was over after 17 starts.
2011: Missed time at the start of the season with shoulder tendinitis, later pulled a groin and then was shut down in September due to arm fatigue. He made 18 starts.
Now he's healthy for the first time in a long time. "I’m a different guy than since you've probably ever seen me, just as far as feeling OK on the mound, being able to worry about making pitches, worrying about game planning not sitting in the trainer room the whole time in between days," he told ESPN Chicago a couple starts ago.
Watching him pitch on Wednesday, he looked like the Peavy from his Padres heyday, mixing his fastball, cutter, tight slider, curveball and changeup from that slightly herky-jerky delivery of his. For all the talk of Yu Darvish's wide arsenal of pitchers, Peavy also throws a kitchen sink repertoire. He cruised through six shutout innings against Cleveland before surrendering a run in the seventh as the White Sox scored an 8-1 victory. He threw first-pitch strikes to 18 of 28 batters and while he rarely topped at more than 90 mph on his fastball, he pitched with precision while changing speeds.
Best in the game? A bold statement, yes, but through seven starts nobody's been better. Check the numbers:
- 4-1, 1.89 ERA, with just 11 runs allowed in seven starts.
- Tied with Felix Hernandez for most innings pitched.
- .189 batting average allowed, .221 OBP allowed (third behind only Matt Cain and Jered Weaver), .482 OPS allowed (fifth).
- Strikeout/walk ratio of 44 to 7, third-best behind Cole Hamels and Bronson Arroyo.
What's impressive about this seven-start run is Peavy has had to face most of the hard-hitting lineups in the American League: two starts against Detroit, plus Texas, Boston, Baltimore and Cleveland. He has one start against Oakland. Weaver, for instance, has faced the Twins in three of his seven starts and hasn't faced Detroit, Texas or Boston.
Now, whether Peavy can keep it going and remain healthy is another issue. Entering his Wednesday start, he was the most extreme fly-ball starting pitcher in the majors, although he has allowed just two home runs. He did induce groundballs on nine of his 15 non-strikeout outs on Wednesday, but skeptics would suggest that his home run rate isn't sustainable. That's certainly likely, but you can see from his heat maps that while he's been pitching up in the zone, he's doing a good job of keeping the ball away from hitters.
ESPN Stats and InformationJake Peavy's pitch locations versus left-handed batters and right-handed batters in 2012.Amazingly, Peavy isn't the only comeback story for the White Sox. Designated hitter Adam Dunn's career appeared to be in jeopardy for other reasons after suffering through one of the worst seasons in major league history last year, with a batting average I don't even want to repeat.
Dunn, however, has been one of the most valuable hitters in the game so far, slugging his 10th home run on Wednesday, a two-run bomb off Jeanmar Gomez in the first inning. Dunn is hitting .243/.384/.586 and he's tied for third in the majors in homers and ranks ninth in RBIs and 15th in OPS.
Whether Dunn can keep this up is also a fair question. His strikeout rate of 34.1 percent is close to 2011's 35.7 percent, both figures well above Dunn's career mark of 27.7 percent. Basically, last year his fly balls were caught; this year, they're landing on the good side of the fence. But he's also lofting the ball more than a year ago; only four players are hitting a higher percentage of fly balls than Dunn. When you're as big and strong as Dunn, fly balls are a good thing.
Still, you have to connect with the sweet part of the wood. And White Sox fans have hearing that sweet sound so far.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jerry Lai/US PresswireIt might be an everyday thing for the Cubs, but Starlin Castro's out at home.The five least old-school players in baseball
May, 7, 2012
May 7
3:45
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
- "I was trying to hit him. I'm not going to deny it. That's something I grew up watching, that's kind of what happened. So I'm just trying to continue the old baseball because I think some people are kind of getting away from it." -- Phillies starter Cole Hamels, after plunking Bryce Harper in the back on Sunday night.
- "I've never seen a more classless, gutless chicken (bleep) act in my 30 years in baseball." -- Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo.
I believe we officially have a new rivalry. Mark your calendars: May 21, Nationals at Phillies; or better yet, May 22, Nationals at Phillies, with Hamels likely to start for Philadelphia, unless he draws a suspension for admitting he threw at Harper.
The funniest part about Hamels' "old baseball" approach? He's 28 years old! What old-school baseball is he referring to? 1998? 1996? Hamels has to be the youngest player ever to invoke old-school quoting privileges.
Plus ... wouldn't Hamels have to be one of the least old-school players in the game? When your nickname is Hollywood Hamels, you can't be old school. When your wife is a reality TV contestant who posed in Playboy, you can't be old school. Old-school players marry the first Baseball Annie they meet in the minors. And they certainly don't spend as much time on their hair as Hamels does.
But Hamels is hardly alone. Here are five other least old-school players in the game.
5. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees. This is not old school. This is also not old school. And this is definitely not.
4. Any starting pitcher other than Justin Verlander. Please, old-school pitchers don't come out after a mere 100 pitches. They throw at least 120 every start and if the manager needs them to throw nine innings and 140 pitches, no problem. Just take two Advil after the game and stop complaining that your arm was tired or that your elbow has swelled to the size of a cantaloupe.
3. Chris Davis, Orioles. Come on, old-school guys wouldn't accept striking out five times in a game. That would be an insult to their manhood. They would choke up on the bat if they had to or just swing at the first pitch and hit a weak grounder to shortstop. Anything to avoid striking out.
2. Curtis Granderson, Yankees. Believe me, Granderson would offend old-school guys. He's a nice guy, he plays hard, he says all the right things. Crazy stuff. Old-school guys should be spitting chew on the shoes of the catcher as they dig in at the plate and pepper their language with four-letter words and then down five beers in the clubhouse as you sit naked talking about how that horsebleep umpire screwed you on that 2-2 slider.
1. Jered Weaver, Angels. Did you see him after his no-hitter last week? He had tears in his eyes, for crying out loud. Then there's the long hair. What's wrong with a crew cut? And did you know in 2010 he went an entire season without hitting a single batter? Don Drysdale would plunk guys in the on-deck circle just to make sure they didn't get too comfortable at the plate.
What a day in baseball on Wednesday! Eric Karabell and myself could have done a two-hour Baseball Today podcast. Here are some highlights of a jam-packed show. Eric even tricked me into comparing Jose Altuve to Al Kaline and Alex Rodriguez. OK, maybe I did that to myself.
1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.
2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?
3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.
4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.
5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.
Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.
1. We discuss Jered Weaver's no-hitter, of course, and wonder how many more no-hitters we'll see this season.
2. We discuss that wild, improbable game in Atlanta between the Phillies and Braves. Are there reasons to be concerned about Roy Halladay?
3. That's only the tip of the iceberg of a crazy night -- bad calls, Jason Giambi's walk-off homer, Jake Arrieta dominating the Yankees and more.
4. We answer some emails about Mat Gamel's injury and other stuff.
5. Finally, we look ahead to Thursday's action and I declare that Jose Altuve is a batting title contender.
Check it all out on Thursday's Baseball Today podcast, and don't miss Friday's show with Mark Simon and awesome guests Jayson Stark and Tampa Bay Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey.
Welcome to the craziest day of the season
May, 3, 2012
May 3
12:18
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Baseball is awesome. Did we need to say anything else? Do we need to hire Terry Cashman to write a ballad about this day? Do we need to pen epic poems about Chipper Jones and Jered Weaver and Bryce Harper and the intentional walk?
Man, I need to catch my breath.
How do you sum up the wildest game of the season so far? I guess pretty simply: The Phillies, a team that scores runs with about the same frequency of a Serie A soccer team, totaled 13 runs ... in a game Roy Halladay started ... and lost.
Well, then, Larry Wayne Jones stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning. He hammered a 2-2 slider from Brian Sanches down the right-field line, but it hooked a few feet line. I tweeted, "Dang, a Chipper walk-off would have been pretty cool on this wild day."
Two pitches later, he crushed a 3-2, 88-mph meatball over the center-field fence, watching the ball fly away into the Atlanta evening and flipping his bat in a dismissive swagger. "I may be 40 years old with creaky knees, but don't try and slip that mediocre slop by me," he seemed to say.
Braves 15, Phillies 13.
It was the 458th regular-season home run in his career. Few have felt sweeter, especially since the Braves had lost eight straight games to the Phillies.
"I wish everyone could experience that feeling right there," Jones said on postgame on-field TV interview, trying to catch his breath after enduring the mosh pit at home plate. "That game, without a doubt, takes the cake as far as my career goes. You figure with Halladay and [Tommy] Hanson, it's going to be a 2-1 game."
When Jones says he's never seen a game like it, you know what it was something amazing.
And here are a few more adventures from not just another Wednesday in early May:
One day in baseball. I say we do it again.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Joy R. Absalon/US PresswireAs Ian Desmond comes home after his game-winning walkoff shot, he was understandably pleased.
Man, I need to catch my breath.
How do you sum up the wildest game of the season so far? I guess pretty simply: The Phillies, a team that scores runs with about the same frequency of a Serie A soccer team, totaled 13 runs ... in a game Roy Halladay started ... and lost.
AROUND THE SWEETSPOT NETWORK
Blake Street Bulletin
CarGo accounted for three of the Rockies runs Wednesday. But that's far from all Gonzalez has been doing from the plate lately. The 26-year-old Venezuelan has gone 12-for-23 (.522) over the last six games, including five homeruns, nine runs scored and 14 RBIs. Part of that production goes back to April 27, the Rockies crazy 18-9 win over the Mets a week ago. In that game, one of the most insane innings in Rockies history took place, when a total of 16 runs were scored by both teams, 11 by Colorado with the Mets committing four errors.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Dodger Thoughts
Even against Rafael Betancourt, who had allowed one run in 10 innings all season, the Dodgers weren't done. Adam Kennedy, whose .095 batting average nearly mirrored Betancourt's 0.90 ERA, singled. Two outs later and with Kennedy stuck on first, the Rockies walked Kemp intentionally rather than give him the chance to tie the game with one swing. (For Kemp, it was the sixth game of at least three walks in his career, something I predicted after noting Juan Rivera batting behind him and a left-hander starting the game.)
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Disciples of Uecker
With San Diego's Cory Luebke injured, the Padres called on an old friend for this evening's series finale against the Brewers: Jeff Suppan. Milwaukee's memories of Jeff Suppan are a bit less than special given his unfortunate performance over his four years as the highest paid Brewer free agent ever. The $42 million man finished his Milwaukee career with a brutal 5.08 ERA (119 ERA-), but let's not dwell on the bad times. Instead, let's remember Jeff Suppan's excellent August 2008, in which he helped the Brewers put enough wins in the bank to stay in the playoff race throughout a brutal September and eventually earn their first berth since 1982.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Well, then, Larry Wayne Jones stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning. He hammered a 2-2 slider from Brian Sanches down the right-field line, but it hooked a few feet line. I tweeted, "Dang, a Chipper walk-off would have been pretty cool on this wild day."
Two pitches later, he crushed a 3-2, 88-mph meatball over the center-field fence, watching the ball fly away into the Atlanta evening and flipping his bat in a dismissive swagger. "I may be 40 years old with creaky knees, but don't try and slip that mediocre slop by me," he seemed to say.
Braves 15, Phillies 13.
It was the 458th regular-season home run in his career. Few have felt sweeter, especially since the Braves had lost eight straight games to the Phillies.
"I wish everyone could experience that feeling right there," Jones said on postgame on-field TV interview, trying to catch his breath after enduring the mosh pit at home plate. "That game, without a doubt, takes the cake as far as my career goes. You figure with Halladay and [Tommy] Hanson, it's going to be a 2-1 game."
When Jones says he's never seen a game like it, you know what it was something amazing.
And here are a few more adventures from not just another Wednesday in early May:
- Oh, yeah, as I was finishing this piece, Jered Weaver was flirting with a no-hitter through the sixth … seventh … into the eighth … and he did it. You know, Weaver is pretty good at baseball. The highlight: MLB Network cameras showed Weaver leaving the dugout in the eighth inning to use the bathroom. How do you risk a no-hitter by leaving the bench? As he said after the game, "I had to pee so bad."
- In an afternoon tilt at Coors Field, we saw the worst call of the season (Jerry Hairston Jr. was called out on this play) and Carlos Gonzalez homered twice off Clayton Kershaw (only the second time Kershaw has allowed two home runs to one player in a game, Adam Dunn having done so in 2010). But that stuff was merely a prelude to a wacky ninth inning. With two outs and a runner on first, Jim Tracy elected to intentionally walk Matt Kemp to pitch to Dee Gordon. You can debate the merits of the decision -- Kemp's home run rate was three times that of Gordon's extra-base hit rate, and extreme fly ball pitcher Rafael Betancourt was on the mound -- but Gordon hit a soft liner into right-center. Third-base coach Tim Wallach sent Kemp, who should have been thrown out by 10 feet, but Troy Tulowitzki biffed the relay with a wormburner throw home. Game tied and Tracy looked like the goat until the ancient Jason Giambi hit a three-run homer off Scott Elbert in the bottom of the ninth. How awesome is that the Giambino is still swatting game-winning home runs at age 41?
- The Nationals ended a five-game losing streak in dramatic, walk-off fashion as well. Wunderkind Harper -- who had just missed his first major league homer earlier in the game with a double off the top of the wall in right-center -- led off the bottom of the ninth with another double to center, his third hit of the game. With Nationals fans dreaming delirious dreams of Harper's future, J.J. Putz then struck out Wilson Ramos and Rick Ankiel. But Ian Desmond blasted a 1-1, 93-mph fastball over the fence in left-center. Only one of the best wins in Nationals' history.
- The Royals looked like they were going to beat Justin Verlander, leading 2-0 in the eighth, only to have Brennan Boesch tie the game with a two-run homer. So they settled for a victory off Joaquin Benoit in the ninth, the go-ahead run scoring on Chris Getz's two-out infield single.
- Jake Arrieta threw eight shutout innings against the Yankees in one of the best outings of the year for a pitcher: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB 9 SO. The Orioles took two of three in the series, they're 16-9, and Baltimore fans are starting to believe.
- Jeff Suppan made his first major league start since 2010 and tossed five shutout innings as the Padres blanked the Brewers 5-0.
- Johnny Damon played his first game for the Indians, and while he went 0-for-3 with a walk, having Damon back in the bigs is certainly worthy of a round of applause.
- Carlos Beltran had seven RBIs through three innings and for a time we could conjure up scenarios where he would drive in 10 ... 11 ... maybe even a record-tying 12 runs.
- Lost in the excitement of Chipper's dramatic walk-off homer, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz also had seven RBIs.
One day in baseball. I say we do it again.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Joy R. Absalon/US PresswireAs Ian Desmond comes home after his game-winning walkoff shot, he was understandably pleased.Matt Cain continues to mystify
April, 14, 2012
Apr 14
12:15
AM ET
By Bill Baer | Special to ESPN.com
Matt Cain has been flummoxing statheads almost as long as he has been flummoxing opposing hitters. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound right-hander has quietly become one of baseball's premier pitchers since earning a regular spot in the San Francisco Giants' rotation in 2006, despite a career xFIP (4.26) nearly a full run higher than his career ERA (3.37).
Utilizing a typical starting pitcher's tool chest -- fastball, slider, changeup, curve -- Cain has posted an ERA between 2.88 and 3.14 in each of the past three seasons, but stood in the background as teammate and 2008-09 back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum shone in the spotlight. Sabermetricians labeled Cain a fluke, bound to regress to a 4.50 ERA that was more in line with his xFIP.
In fact, many balked when the Giants awarded Cain a six-year, $127.5 million contract extension nearly two weeks ago. Cain has never finished higher than eighth in Cy Young balloting and never posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio in excess of 3-1. How could he possibly be worth that much money?
Cain showed exactly how in this afternoon's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He brought a perfect game into the sixth inning, allowing his first hit with two out in the frame to opposing starter James McDonald on his way to a 5-0 Giants victory. The home crowd in San Francisco gave him a lengthy and appreciative standing ovation, perhaps a penance for worrying after his first start, in which the Arizona Diamondbacks tagged him for five runs over six innings.
While he is not known for his ability to strike batters out on a frequent basis, Cain has posted an average strikeout rate (a shade under 20 percent) over his career. Today, Cain struck out 11 Pirates, utilizing expert pitch sequencing. ESPN Stats & Information notes that eight of his 11 punchouts were on pitches out of the strike zone, and overall, Pirates hitters chased at 58 percent of pitches out of the zone.
An added bonus to being so unpredictable is weak contact. Since 2006, among starters with at least 1,000 innings pitched, Cain has the fourth-highest infield fly ball rate at 12.6 percent, trailing Ted Lilly (13.8), Jered Weaver (13.6), and Bronson Arroyo (12.7). As a result, Cain's career batting average on balls on play sits at .265, about 35 points below the average for pitchers and the point to which most pitchers regress. That low BABIP is the reason most expected him to regress, but he has proven he has an ability to limit hits on balls in play better than most pitchers, which is a rare skill.
If Cain had authored the 273rd no-hitter in baseball history, he certainly would have gained some recognition across the baseball world. But in reality, his resume is already impressive enough, and he has been everything the Giants had hoped for when they drafted him in the first round of the 2002 draft and, at 27 years old, there is plenty more still to come.
Bill Baer writes for Crashburn Alley and you can follow him on Twitter here.
Utilizing a typical starting pitcher's tool chest -- fastball, slider, changeup, curve -- Cain has posted an ERA between 2.88 and 3.14 in each of the past three seasons, but stood in the background as teammate and 2008-09 back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum shone in the spotlight. Sabermetricians labeled Cain a fluke, bound to regress to a 4.50 ERA that was more in line with his xFIP.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Eric RisbergMatt Cain tips his cap after his one-hit, 11-strikeout shutout in the Giants' home opener.
AP Photo/Eric RisbergMatt Cain tips his cap after his one-hit, 11-strikeout shutout in the Giants' home opener.Cain showed exactly how in this afternoon's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He brought a perfect game into the sixth inning, allowing his first hit with two out in the frame to opposing starter James McDonald on his way to a 5-0 Giants victory. The home crowd in San Francisco gave him a lengthy and appreciative standing ovation, perhaps a penance for worrying after his first start, in which the Arizona Diamondbacks tagged him for five runs over six innings.
While he is not known for his ability to strike batters out on a frequent basis, Cain has posted an average strikeout rate (a shade under 20 percent) over his career. Today, Cain struck out 11 Pirates, utilizing expert pitch sequencing. ESPN Stats & Information notes that eight of his 11 punchouts were on pitches out of the strike zone, and overall, Pirates hitters chased at 58 percent of pitches out of the zone.
An added bonus to being so unpredictable is weak contact. Since 2006, among starters with at least 1,000 innings pitched, Cain has the fourth-highest infield fly ball rate at 12.6 percent, trailing Ted Lilly (13.8), Jered Weaver (13.6), and Bronson Arroyo (12.7). As a result, Cain's career batting average on balls on play sits at .265, about 35 points below the average for pitchers and the point to which most pitchers regress. That low BABIP is the reason most expected him to regress, but he has proven he has an ability to limit hits on balls in play better than most pitchers, which is a rare skill.
If Cain had authored the 273rd no-hitter in baseball history, he certainly would have gained some recognition across the baseball world. But in reality, his resume is already impressive enough, and he has been everything the Giants had hoped for when they drafted him in the first round of the 2002 draft and, at 27 years old, there is plenty more still to come.
Bill Baer writes for Crashburn Alley and you can follow him on Twitter here.
Angels still a team with potential flaws
April, 13, 2012
Apr 13
1:06
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
For all the consternation and criticism dished out over the Boston Red Sox's 1-5 start, another expected American League power is off to a sluggish opening week as well: The Los Angeles Angels are 2-4 after coughing up 20 hits and an eighth-inning lead in losing 10-9 to the Minnesota Twins on Thursday.
There is one obvious difference between the two starts: The Red Sox have been outscored 38 to 22 while the Angels are even-up 30 and 30. On the other hand, the Red Sox have played the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays while the Angels have faced Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Not exactly Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz there.
Actually, based on ESPN.com's preseason predictions, maybe it's not fair to label the Red Sox an "expected power." After all, 34 of 50 voters predicted the Red Sox to miss the playoffs. Only one -- fantasy expert Matthew Berry -- picked the Red Sox to win the American League East. Meanwhile, 25 of the 50 picked the Angels to win the AL West and 46 of 50 picked them to make the playoffs.
The Angels were easily the most popular World Series pick as well, with 18 of the 50 selecting them to win it all -- 36 percent, a pretty amazing total since last time I checked there are some other pretty good teams around. Only one voter (Karl Ravech) picked the Red Sox to win the World Series.
OK, those are just predictions and as our SweetSpot network blog affiliate says, you can't predict baseball. Still, since ESPN's panel of experts did essentially declare the Angels the World Series favorite, it seems like a fair time to ask: What's wrong with the Angels and why aren't their fans ready to fire the manager, whine about overpaid left fielders and complain about the bullpen?
Well, it's Los Angeles, for one thing. No less enthusiastic, but perhaps slightly less pessimistic. Still, we can't get all crazy about the Red Sox and just ignore the Angels getting bulldozed by a mediocre Twins lineup.
True fact: In 2011, the Red Sox had a run differential of plus-138. The Angels had a run differential of just plus-34. As good as Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson are, and as good Kendrys Morales may prove to be, that's still a lot of ground for the Angels to make up.
So, in the spirit of early-season panic, here are some things that could go wrong with the Angels.
1. Jered Weaver doesn't repeat his career season.
Weaver is a terrific pitcher. He has increased his innings each season he has been in the big leagues, peaking at 235.2 last season, when he ranked fifth in the league. It's not a knock against him to say he might not be quite as stingy with the runs as in 2011. But check his basic numbers in 2010 and 2011:
In some regards, he actually pitched better in 2010, most notably in strikeout rate. His walk rate, home run rate and hit rate were all pretty similar, thus his Fielding Independent Pitching runs per nine was basically identical. So why did he allow 18 fewer runs in 2011? A couple primary reasons: 15 of his 20 home runs were solo shots as opposed to 15 of 23 in 2010; he allowed a .195 average with men on base in 2011 versus .236 in 2010. In other words, if you consider hits to be randomly distributed, they worked in his favor last season. Also note: After a hot start in 2011, his second-half ERA rose from 1.86 to 3.21 as he surrendered 15 home runs in 95.1 innings. He's off to a great start in 2012 in one regard: 17 strikeouts and just one walk. But he's allowed five runs for a 3.21 ERA. Random distribution, my friends.
2. Potential bullpen issues.
But put of the reason Thompson was in there was that ancient relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen were apparently unavailable to pitch since both had thrown the night before, Hawkins for 16 pitches, Isringhausen for 10. Seems odd, since neither had pitched on Tuesday. But why not extend closer Jordan Walden for five outs? Thompson is a guy who is homer-prone, so why let him face the meat of the Twins' order? Plus, isn't it a bad sign if two-sevenths of your bullpen can't pitch two days in a row? "We're going to need to get our starters maybe over that little hump and then try to get our roles in the bullpen a little more nailed down," Scioscia said. "Our guys tried. We just couldn't shut the door when we needed it."
3. Vernon Wells.
It's early, but he's hitting .217 with no walks and five strikeouts. Stay tuned.
4. Will we get good Ervin or mediocre Ervin?
Ervin Santana had a career-low 3.38 ERA last season. He has been pretty consistent the past two seasons, but he has been plagued by minor injuries in the past, a reason his ERA rocketed up to 5.03 in 2009 and 5.76 in 2007. Just something to keep in mind.
5. Is Peter Bourjos' bat for real?
Bourjos is a supreme defender in center and he exceeded expectations last year with a .271/.327/.438 batting line. Scouts had doubts about his bat coming up through the minors and he did strike out 124 times against just 32 walks in 2011. While his .338 BABIP may be repeatable -- he is one of the fastest players in the majors, after all -- Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system projects a .261/.309/.412 line, with some regression due to a lower BABIP.
6. Mark Trumbo's defense at third.
I've written about this before. The early returns aren't good; yes, it's early, I realize that. It's also true that since 1950 only Enos Cabell has successfully converted from first base to third base at the major league level. We don't know yet how determined Scioscia will be to keep Trumbo's bat in the lineup, but playing him at third is likely to be a liability, especially since Trumbo's low OBP means he isn't really much -- if any -- of an offensive upgrade over Alberto Callaspo.
7. Howie Kendrick also coming off his best season.
Kendrick posted a career-high .802 OPS in 2011, 50 points above his career mark, fueled by a career-high 18 home runs. It's possible that power growth was real, as he appeared to sacrifice a few more strikeouts -- a career-high 20.4 percent K rate -- for a little more power while maintaining his usual .285 or so batting average. But there's also a chance it was simply his best season and he's not quite as good.
8. Maybe Albert Pujols won't be better than he was in 2011.
Hey, that's still pretty awesome, if also somewhat more mortal compared to his previous decade of production.
Look, it's only a week. The Angels should still have one of the best, and maybe the best, rotations in the league. They have a lot of depth and versatility in the lineup, although it remains to be seen who will be a second and third big bat behind Pujols.
The larger point is this: This isn't a perfect team in my book, certainly one that shouldn't rate as such a landslide favorite to make the playoffs and win the World Series.
So, yes, I just managed to slam 49 of my ESPN colleagues. This is what the first week does to us.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Hannah Foslien/Getty ImagesAngels pitcher Scott Downs collides with Minnesota's Denard Span, injuring his ankle in the process.
There is one obvious difference between the two starts: The Red Sox have been outscored 38 to 22 while the Angels are even-up 30 and 30. On the other hand, the Red Sox have played the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays while the Angels have faced Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano. Not exactly Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz there.
Actually, based on ESPN.com's preseason predictions, maybe it's not fair to label the Red Sox an "expected power." After all, 34 of 50 voters predicted the Red Sox to miss the playoffs. Only one -- fantasy expert Matthew Berry -- picked the Red Sox to win the American League East. Meanwhile, 25 of the 50 picked the Angels to win the AL West and 46 of 50 picked them to make the playoffs.
The Angels were easily the most popular World Series pick as well, with 18 of the 50 selecting them to win it all -- 36 percent, a pretty amazing total since last time I checked there are some other pretty good teams around. Only one voter (Karl Ravech) picked the Red Sox to win the World Series.
OK, those are just predictions and as our SweetSpot network blog affiliate says, you can't predict baseball. Still, since ESPN's panel of experts did essentially declare the Angels the World Series favorite, it seems like a fair time to ask: What's wrong with the Angels and why aren't their fans ready to fire the manager, whine about overpaid left fielders and complain about the bullpen?
Well, it's Los Angeles, for one thing. No less enthusiastic, but perhaps slightly less pessimistic. Still, we can't get all crazy about the Red Sox and just ignore the Angels getting bulldozed by a mediocre Twins lineup.
True fact: In 2011, the Red Sox had a run differential of plus-138. The Angels had a run differential of just plus-34. As good as Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson are, and as good Kendrys Morales may prove to be, that's still a lot of ground for the Angels to make up.
So, in the spirit of early-season panic, here are some things that could go wrong with the Angels.
1. Jered Weaver doesn't repeat his career season.
Weaver is a terrific pitcher. He has increased his innings each season he has been in the big leagues, peaking at 235.2 last season, when he ranked fifth in the league. It's not a knock against him to say he might not be quite as stingy with the runs as in 2011. But check his basic numbers in 2010 and 2011:
In some regards, he actually pitched better in 2010, most notably in strikeout rate. His walk rate, home run rate and hit rate were all pretty similar, thus his Fielding Independent Pitching runs per nine was basically identical. So why did he allow 18 fewer runs in 2011? A couple primary reasons: 15 of his 20 home runs were solo shots as opposed to 15 of 23 in 2010; he allowed a .195 average with men on base in 2011 versus .236 in 2010. In other words, if you consider hits to be randomly distributed, they worked in his favor last season. Also note: After a hot start in 2011, his second-half ERA rose from 1.86 to 3.21 as he surrendered 15 home runs in 95.1 innings. He's off to a great start in 2012 in one regard: 17 strikeouts and just one walk. But he's allowed five runs for a 3.21 ERA. Random distribution, my friends.
2. Potential bullpen issues.
AROUND THE SWEETSPOT NETWORK
Twins Daily
Just three games into the first homestand of the year, Josh Willingham has reminded fans why the team named the third deck section of left field the "Home Run Porch" by pulverizing the Rawlings deep into the stands and narrowly missing a fourth by several feet on Monday. In concert with Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, both of whom homered on Thursday, the Twins now have five home runs at home. That is downright a derby contest compared to last season in which fans had to wait until the twelfth home game of the season to be treated to the fifth Twins home run. Let's take a closer look as to why Willingham has been such a solid power source.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Royals Authority
Two weeks ago, I think the Royals' community would have unamiously accepted a 3-3 start to the season. That is what good teams do: play .500 ball on the road and take care of business at home, right? As ugly as yesterday's 12-inning loss to Oakland was, Kansas City accomplished step one of that theory. Sure, you hate to lose a game like that, but it is, after all "just one game." Except "just one game" begins to add up after while.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
But put of the reason Thompson was in there was that ancient relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen were apparently unavailable to pitch since both had thrown the night before, Hawkins for 16 pitches, Isringhausen for 10. Seems odd, since neither had pitched on Tuesday. But why not extend closer Jordan Walden for five outs? Thompson is a guy who is homer-prone, so why let him face the meat of the Twins' order? Plus, isn't it a bad sign if two-sevenths of your bullpen can't pitch two days in a row? "We're going to need to get our starters maybe over that little hump and then try to get our roles in the bullpen a little more nailed down," Scioscia said. "Our guys tried. We just couldn't shut the door when we needed it."
3. Vernon Wells.
It's early, but he's hitting .217 with no walks and five strikeouts. Stay tuned.
4. Will we get good Ervin or mediocre Ervin?
Ervin Santana had a career-low 3.38 ERA last season. He has been pretty consistent the past two seasons, but he has been plagued by minor injuries in the past, a reason his ERA rocketed up to 5.03 in 2009 and 5.76 in 2007. Just something to keep in mind.
5. Is Peter Bourjos' bat for real?
Bourjos is a supreme defender in center and he exceeded expectations last year with a .271/.327/.438 batting line. Scouts had doubts about his bat coming up through the minors and he did strike out 124 times against just 32 walks in 2011. While his .338 BABIP may be repeatable -- he is one of the fastest players in the majors, after all -- Dan Szymborski's ZiPS system projects a .261/.309/.412 line, with some regression due to a lower BABIP.
6. Mark Trumbo's defense at third.
I've written about this before. The early returns aren't good; yes, it's early, I realize that. It's also true that since 1950 only Enos Cabell has successfully converted from first base to third base at the major league level. We don't know yet how determined Scioscia will be to keep Trumbo's bat in the lineup, but playing him at third is likely to be a liability, especially since Trumbo's low OBP means he isn't really much -- if any -- of an offensive upgrade over Alberto Callaspo.
7. Howie Kendrick also coming off his best season.
Kendrick posted a career-high .802 OPS in 2011, 50 points above his career mark, fueled by a career-high 18 home runs. It's possible that power growth was real, as he appeared to sacrifice a few more strikeouts -- a career-high 20.4 percent K rate -- for a little more power while maintaining his usual .285 or so batting average. But there's also a chance it was simply his best season and he's not quite as good.
8. Maybe Albert Pujols won't be better than he was in 2011.
Hey, that's still pretty awesome, if also somewhat more mortal compared to his previous decade of production.
Look, it's only a week. The Angels should still have one of the best, and maybe the best, rotations in the league. They have a lot of depth and versatility in the lineup, although it remains to be seen who will be a second and third big bat behind Pujols.
The larger point is this: This isn't a perfect team in my book, certainly one that shouldn't rate as such a landslide favorite to make the playoffs and win the World Series.
So, yes, I just managed to slam 49 of my ESPN colleagues. This is what the first week does to us.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Hannah Foslien/Getty ImagesAngels pitcher Scott Downs collides with Minnesota's Denard Span, injuring his ankle in the process.SweetSpot predictions: AL Cy Young
March, 29, 2012
Mar 29
2:00
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Matthew Emmons/US PresswireJustin Verlander walked away with the AL MVP and Cy Young trophies after going 24-5, 2.40 ERA.Today's staff prediction from the SweetSpot blog network: the AL Cy Young Award. Justin Verlander received 11 of 38 first-place votes as eight different pitchers received first-place nominations. Yes, there are a lot of ace-level starters right now. The last AL pitcher to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards was Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000.
So ... what kind of manager is Bobby V?
November, 29, 2011
11/29/11
9:26
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Henny Ray Abrams/Getty ImagesSteve Phillips and Bobby Valentine rarely saw eye-to-eye during their time with the Mets.So the talk will mostly be about his personality. But what kind of manager was he? Let's look back at his career -- focusing mostly on his full seasons with the Mets from 1997 to 2002 -- to see what that may indicate about how he'll manage the Red Sox.
Will Carl Crawford hit leadoff?
With Jacoby Ellsbury's new power stroke, it may make sense to move him down in the order to get him more RBI opportunities; that would leave Crawford as a leadoff option. I don't see that. Even if Crawford bounces back, his on-base percentage is hardly ideal for a leadoff hitter and Valentine -- a guy who was using computers and studying sabermetrics back with the Rangers in the '80s -- craves a high OBP from his leadoff hitter.
Check out his leadoff hitters with the Mets:
1997: Lance Johnson/Brian McRae.
1998: Brian McRae/Tony Phillips -- McRae posted a career-high .360 OBP that year.
1999: Rickey Henderson.
2000: Ten different leadoff hitters, including Benny Agbayani 27 games.
2001: Used four guys at least 20 games, led by Joe McEwing's 44 games. Led off Agbayani 32 times.
2002: Roberto Alomar/Roger Cedeno.
The unconventional use of Agbayani, the rotund Hawaiian without much speed but in possession of good on-base skills, shows Valentine's preference for OBP. In 2002, with Cedeno failing to do the job, he used Alomar there. I see Crawford remaining lower in the order, with Ellsbury staying in the No. 1 spot.
Does he like the quick hook or does he let his starters stay in the game?
There's not really a lot of in-game strategy in the American League, especially with a team like the Red Sox that basically just looks to bash the ball. So the most important strategic elements for Valentine will be how he handles the rotation and bullpen. The 2011 Red Sox were 12th in the AL in average innings per start, but that was more a function of a lousy rotation than Terry Francona's itchy trigger finger.
Let's see where the Mets under Valentine ranked in average in innings per start among NL teams:
1997: 5th
1998: 4th
1999: 8th
2000: 4th
2001: 4th
2002: 5th
Nothing really unusual here, as the Mets usually had a solid rotation under Valentine. They ranked in the upper half of innings because he had decent pitchers.
He was a little more generous when it came to allowing his starters throw 100 to 119 pitches:
1997: 9th
1998: 7th
1999: 12th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 4th
What's interesting about the 2001 squad is that they actually allowed the fewest walks in the league, so the high pitch counts weren't the result of a staff that walked a lot of hitters. He had a veteran rotation that year -- Leiter, Kevin Appier, Glendon Rusch, Steve Trachsel, Rick Reed -- and let his starters work deeper into games. It will be interesting to see if Valentine allows Jon Lester and Josh Beckett to reach the century mark more often than Francona did. In 2011, Lester had 22 100-pitch games -- tied for 25th-most among major league starters; Beckett had 21. Justin Verlander had 34, CC Sabathia 31, and other top AL pitchers like James Shields, David Price, Felix Hernandez, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren and Jered Weaver were all in the high 20s or low 30s.
Does he like an experienced closer?
In other words, would he be comfortable with Daniel Bard in the ninth inning? With the Mets, he initially had John Franco. The team acquired Armando Benitez in 1999 and when Franco went down with an injury in early July, Benitez took over as closer; when Franco returned, Benitez kept the closer job. As the Rangers' manager from 1985 to 1992, he had a different closer every year early on, before the club turned starter Jeff Russell into a successful closer in 1989. Hard to read too much into this, although both Russell and Bard throw hard. My guess is this becomes more of a front-office decision (do they sign Ryan Madson?), but that Valentine would have no problem making Bard his closer.
Does he like strikeout pitchers or guys who throw strikes?
With the Rangers, Valentine (and pitching coach Tom House) were obsessed with guys who threw hard. They had Bobby Witt, Jose Guzman, Edwin Correa, Nolan Ryan, Mitch Williams and others. Ryan had mostly refined his control (for him) by the time he reached Texas, but the other four would have problems hitting a barn door placed 10 feet in front of them. His first four staffs all had the highest walk rate in the American League. His staffs with the Mets were better, and Valentine seemed less concerned with velocity -- guys like Reed, Bobby Jones and Rusch were more finesse-type pitchers who threw strikes.
Mets strikeout rate under Valentine:
1997: 13th
1998: 7th
1999: 4th
2000: 3rd
2001: 5th
2002: 5th
Mets walk rate under Valentine:
1997: 2nd
1998: 7th
1999: 8th
2000: 3rd
2001: 1st
2002: 5th
Does he like a set lineup?
During his years with the Mets, Valentine always had a set infield, but remarkably never had one outfielder start 100 games at one position more than once. His machinations out there were pretty remarkable and show the willingness to be flexible and mix and match players as needed. Now, with the Red Sox he won't have same issue, with Ellsbury and Crawford playing every day, but it certainly suggests he'd be comfortable with a platoon in right field.
Here's the list of outfielders who started 100 games in a season at the same position with the Mets under Valentine:
1997: Bernard Gilkey, LF, 134
1998: Brian McRae, CF, 144
1999: Rickey Henderson, LF, 113
2000: Jay Payton, CF, 124; Derek Bell, RF, 136
2001: None
2002: Roger Cedeno, LF, 125; Jeromy Burnitz, RF, 131
The big issue here is how he handles Crawford, especially if he struggles to hit left-handers again (.195 in 2011). Would he consider benching Crawford against lefties, or at least the tough lefties?
Does he like young players?
With the Mets, he mostly had a veteran lineup. He did give Agbayani an opportunity, broke in Payton and Timo Perez, and gave Cedeno his first chance to play every day. With the Rangers, he broke in position players like Ruben Sierra, Oddibe McDowell, Steve Buechele, Pete Incaviglia, Jerry Browne, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez and Dean Palmer. Again, this might be more of a front-office decision, but I'd say Valentine would give youngsters like Josh Reddick and Ryan Lavarnway an opportunity to play regularly.
Valentine's reputation with the Mets was one of being prepared and being tactically smart with his in-game moves. He had to do more with the Mets than he'll have to with the Red Sox, especially considering he was often platooning at one or two outfield spots. He trusted his veteran starters to go deep into games. In short, there's nothing radically unconventional about Valentine's managerial philosophy. Of course, he last managed in the majors 10 years ago and his biggest challenge won't necessarily be strategy, but getting Crawford to rebound, getting his older players in better shape, and rebuilding Bard's confidence.
Verlander completes historic season
November, 15, 2011
11/15/11
2:00
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Paul SancyaUndoubtedly, the 2011 season will be one to remember for Detroit's Justin Verlander.A few will argue for CC Sabathia. Indeed, here are the voting results from the SweetSpot Network bloggers (seven points for first, four for second, three for third; the real vote also awards two points for fourth and one for fifth):
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 169 points (23 first-place votes)
CC Sabathia, Yankees: 91 points (2)
Jered Weaver, Angels: 65 points
Dan Haren, Angels: 15 points
James Shields, Rays: 10 points
The basic case for Sabathia rests on that he pitched in a tougher division in a tougher park while allowing fewer home runs (24 for Verlander, 17 for Sabathia) and suffering from bad luck while Verlander received plenty of good fortune. I don’t quite buy it. Verlander allowed 14 fewer runs while pitching 14 more innings. Although Yankee Stadium is a good hitters' park, it favors left-handed batters over right-handers, so Sabathia wouldn’t necessarily face the same disadvantage as a right-handed pitcher. (Indeed, he allowed a .618 OPS at home, .710 on the road.) Comerica Park, despite its big dimensions to center field, actually plays as a slight hitters' park, according to Baseball-Reference's park factors. Verlander allowed a .547 OPS at home, .563 on the road.
As for tougher competition, that part is true. Against the top four offensive teams in the AL (Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, Tigers), Sabathia made 10 starts, Verlander five. Against the bottom four offenses (Mariners, Twins, Athletics, White Sox), Sabathia made seven starts, Verlander 13. It's an important consideration, but perhaps it's also important to note that Sabathia didn't step it up against the best teams: He went 1-4, 6.39 ERA against Boston; he allowed 21 baserunners in 13 innings against Detroit; he was 2-0 against Texas in three starts but with a 5.14 ERA. In his limited action against the best hitting teams, Verlander posted a 2.70 ERA.
Finally, there is the matter of Verlander's allowing a .236 average on balls in play and Sabathia a .318 mark. Verlander's BABIP was second-lowest among starters (behind Jeremy Hellickson's .223), while Sabathia's was one of the worst. Sabathia allowed 230 hits in 985 plate appearances; Verlander allowed 174 in 969. That's a difference of 56 hits that Sabathia supporters have to account for via bad luck or good luck -- or about one hit per game per pitcher. For what it's worth, Baseball Info Solutions rated each team's overall defense roughly the same -- the Yankees as 15 runs below average, the Tigers as 18 runs below average.
Anyway, when trying to digest all these numbers, one little one jumped out at me: When Verlander went to a 2-0 count -- when hitters usually thrive -- he held opponents to a .202 average with just one home run in 89 at-bats, with 24 strikeouts and 24 walks. When Sabathia went to a 2-0 count, opponents hit .316 (24-for-76) with 32 walks and 16 strikeouts. Another big difference: When batters put a 1-0 pitch in play, they hit .241 off Verlander (13-for-54) but .403 off Sabathia (29-for-72). Isn't it possible that Sabathia more often threw hittable pitches on that count, trying to avoid that 2-0 hole?
My ballot
1. Justin Verlander
2. CC Sabathia
3. Jered Weaver
4. James Shields
5. C.J. Wilson
* * * *
At some point early in the season, I said something to Mark Simon on the Baseball Today podcast along the lines of "Will Verlander ever put it all together?" My point was that he had entered the season with a career 3.81 ERA; he had finished fifth in the 2007 Cy Young vote and third in the 2009 Cy Young vote, but he'd never had that knockout season, never had an ERA below 3.00.
He certainly delivered on that front. How historic was his season?
In the most basic level of analysis -- preventing runs -- not that historic. He prevented 47 fewer runs than the average 2011 American League pitcher would for his workload, which ranks 51st since 1961. The top 10: Pedro Martinez, 2000 (79); Roger Clemens, 1997 (74); Pedro Martinez, 1999 (67); Dwight Gooden, 1985 (63); Randy Johnson, 1999 (62); Greg Maddux, 1995 (62); Steve Carlton, 1972 (61); Sandy Koufax, 1966 (60); Bob Gibson, 1968 (60); Ron Guidry, 1978 (59).
Of course, not all runs are created equal. A run in low-scoring 1968 was worth more than a run in high-scoring 1999. That's where a stat like WAR (wins above replacement) comes in, as it adjusts for era and home park. On Baseball-Reference, Verlander moves up to 32nd since 1961. However, most of the leaders on that list come from the 1960s and '70s, when pitchers threw more innings and made more starts; if you pitched more, you could accumlate more value. If we change the cutoff date to 1990, Verlander jumps up higher on the WAR list: seventh (tied with 1993 Jose Rijo), behind only 1997 Clemens, 2000 Martinez, 1990 Clemens, 2009 Zack Greinke, 2002 Johnson and 1995 Maddux.
Verlander's dominance manifested itself in other ways as well: Since 1990, the only AL pitchers to allow a lower OPS were Martinez in 1999 and 2000 and Nolan Ryan in 1991. Since 1990, only five times has a starter allowed a lower batting average than Verlander's .192 mark -- Martinez twice, Ryan twice and Hideo Nomo.
In the end, maybe Verlander's season isn't quite Pantheon level -- but it was an amazing run, probably one of the top 10 pitcher seasons of the past 20 years.
I don't know about you, but I can't wait for the encore.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
The SweetSpot American League All-Stars
September, 26, 2011
9/26/11
2:43
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
US PresswireRangers lefty C.J. Wilson and Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera are two of the SweetSpot All-Stars.Catcher: Alex Avila, Tigers (.295/.388/.509, 19 HR, 78 RBI). Maybe the most surprising season in the majors this year, considering he hit .228 last year as a rookie. Avila hit .311 in April and other than a one-RBI July, has kept hitting all season. He ranks sixth in the AL in on-base percentage, 12th in slugging and has thrown 32 percent of base stealers.
First base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.341/.447/.579, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 107 R). Adrian Gonzalez got most of the attention, but it's now clear that Cabrera had the better year with the bat. Cabrera has created more runs, has a higher on-base percentage (thanks to 40 more walks) and a higher slugging percentage. Gonzalez has a few more RBIs, which is strictly a function of having better hitters in front of him. Cabrera is hitting .381 with runners on base and .397 with runners in scoring position.
Second base: Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox (.302/.381/.467, 20 HR, 88 RBI, 101 R, 26 SB). Yankee fans will cry foul, but Pedroia's big edge in OBP (.381 to .351) and even bigger edge with the glove, makes him the selection.
Third base: Evan Longoria, Rays (.240/.345/.482, 29 HR, 95 RBI). Longoria has a chance for 100 RBIs despite missing most of April with a strained oblique. While the batting average is down, the power numbers are there and he owns a terrific glove. So does Adrian Beltre, who is also hitting .293 with 30 home runs, but Beltre has the advantage of a hitter-friendly home park; he's hitting .265 on the road and 23 of his 30 home runs have come at home.
Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians (.273/.333/.463, 25 HR, 92 RBI). The toughest call on the board as Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy, Yunel Escobar, Alexei Ramirez, Erick Aybar and Elvis Andrus all have their supporters and decent claims to best in the league. Cabrera's defense isn't highly regarded by the advanced metrics, but he had a terrific season at the bat, gives you more on the base paths than Peralta, and hit well with runners in scoring position -- .312/.393/.529.
Outfield: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (.304/.447/.615, 43 HR, 107 RBI, 105 R). Bautista's OPS at home: 1.062. On the road: 1.062.
Outfield: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox (.322/.377/.551, 31 HR, 103 RBI, 117 R, 38 SB). Obviously, nobody saw this coming. A remarkable all-around season, the best by a Red Sox center fielder since Fred Lynn in 1979.
Outfield: Curtis Granderson, Yankees (.266/.368/.561, 41 HR, 119 RBI, 135 runs). He's tailed off in September (.221, three home runs), costing him a chance to become just the third player since World War II to score 150 runs in a season, but he remains in the thick of the MVP discussion.
Designated hitter: David Ortiz, Red Sox (.307/.397/.557, 29 HR, 96 RBI). Michael Young, with his .338 average and 104 RBIs, has been enormously valuable to the Rangers, especially with his ability to fill in at first, second and third bases. But for pure offensive numbers, Ortiz is the guy.
Starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, Tigers (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 251 IP, 174 H, 57 BB, 250 SO). Yes, wins aren't everything, but he had the most wins in the American League since Bob Welch in 1990.
Starting pitcher: Jered Weaver, Angels (18-8, 2.41 ERA, 235.2 IP, 182 H, 56 BB, 198 SO). Here's how he's been: In one less start than Verlander, he's allowed eight fewer runs.
Starting pitcher: James Shields, Rays (15-12, 2.84 ERA, 240.2 IP, 189 H, 62 BB, 221 SO). Brought back the complete game: His 11 were the most in the AL since 1993. Saddled with poor run support, he didn't win a single game all season when he allowed more than two runs.
Starting pitcher: C.J. Wilson, Rangers (16-7, 2.97 ERA, 221.1 IP, 189 H, 72 BB, 206 SO). He hits the free-agent market this winter and general managers would be salivating to see what he could outside of the Ballpark -- he had a 2.34 ERA on the road.
Starting pitcher: CC Sabathia, Yankees (19-8, 3.00 ERA, 237.1 IP, 230 H, 61 BB, 230 SO). The big man may have had his best season. Now the pressure is on to repeat his 2009 postseason performance.
Setup guy: David Robertson, Yankees (4-0, 34 holds, 1.09 ERA). The Yanks paid big bucks for Rafael Soriano in the offseason, but he went down and Robertson never gave up the big hit as Mariano Rivera's setup guy, allowing just nine runs in 66 innings. He gave up just one home run while fanning 99.
Closer: Jose Valverde, Tigers (2-4, 47 saves, 2.30 ERA). Rivera has a lower ERA and better WHIP, but he's blown fives while Valverde was 47-for-47 in save opportunities. It's not always pretty, but he's you can't deny the job he's done.
Player of the Year: Justin Verlander. He leads the AL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings, WHIP, quality starts, opponents' batting average, opponents' on-base percentage and opponents' slugging percentage. He's been the most electrifying performer in the league. More than any other player in the AL, it's been his season.
Angels need to alter rotation -- now!
September, 14, 2011
9/14/11
11:46
PM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
If you’re wondering how the AL West race might play out, the Angels have just four series and 13 games in 14 days to somehow make up three games on the Rangers. The Angels’ odds already weren’t good before the Rangers won on Wednesday night, ranging from 15 percent according to CoolStandings.com, down to around 7 percent according to Clay Davenport, and 6 percent via Baseball Prospectus.
So, Angels manager Mike Scioscia’s team needs to win at least 10 of those 13 games to have a shot at this. While he gets to lead off with Dan Haren on Friday to help make it so, just nine of those 13 games will be started by the big three of Haren, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver. Scioscia’s already looking ahead to the final regular-season matchup against Texas and is moving Weaver up to start on three days’ rest against the Orioles on Sunday to help get Weaver in line for a last-game start against the Rangers on Sept. 28.
How big is that risk? Using BP’s support-neutral winning percentage (SNWP) to gauge starter performance without reference to run support, the per-game difference between the big three and the little two is huge: Pineiro’s SNWP is just .446, while Williams is at .458 in his four turns; the lowest SNWP among the big three is Santana’s at .547. Between those two groups, that’s a 10 percent swing on how likely you are to win an individual game with a single nightly elective decision over who starts. If the Angels are going to make up the difference, they need to squeeze every percentage of possible advantage.
Getting Weaver lined up to start on the last day of the season is nice, but very probably irrelevant. By the time Weaver’s start on the last day of the regular season rolls around, it may not matter if Weaver makes that start, or Geoff Zahn, or Brendan Fraser for all the good it’d do the Angels, because chances are they’ll already be done. The Angels’ problems exist beyond Sunday’s game against the Orioles.
The Angels need to do more than beat Baltimore, they need to beat time, and the best way to do that will be to start their best. Scioscia could squeeze out a 10th game in 13 from his big three if he moved all of them up a day to face Toronto, their next opponent, because even if the Angels sweep the O’s, they’re sure to still be chasing the Rangers. So why risk starting both Pineiro and Williams in the first two games against a good Blue Jays ballclub?
Instead, the Angels should bring all three of the power trio forward a day, and see about starting all three on three days’ rest in Toronto. Doing that puts their best starters in six of the next seven games, and gives the Halos a small prayer of making up ground. Rather than making plans for what to do on the last day, the Angels need to be thinking about the fact that they’re about to run out of tomorrows.
If Texas keeps its lead or expands it in the next week, Scioscia can chuck this short-rest gamble. It certainly won’t matter who’s starting on the last day. But by moving everyone who matters up next week in Toronto and not just Weaver on Sunday, he could still start Santana and Weaver in the first two games against Texas on regular rest. If Haren makes the middle start against Oakland on three days’ rest, he’d also be available on the last day of the season -- again, on three days’ rest -- if the Angels are still playing for something. They can worry about that when and if they get there.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jerry Lai/US PresswireThis man is happy. You would be too if your team just won its 12th consecutive game.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
So, Angels manager Mike Scioscia’s team needs to win at least 10 of those 13 games to have a shot at this. While he gets to lead off with Dan Haren on Friday to help make it so, just nine of those 13 games will be started by the big three of Haren, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver. Scioscia’s already looking ahead to the final regular-season matchup against Texas and is moving Weaver up to start on three days’ rest against the Orioles on Sunday to help get Weaver in line for a last-game start against the Rangers on Sept. 28.
AROUND THE SWEETSPOT NETWORK
Blake Street Bulletin
... the bigger need for the Rockies in 2012 lies at second and third base. The assumption here is that Chris Nelson, Ty Wigginton, Ian Stewart, Jonathan Herrera, Mark Ellis and whoever else the Rockies want to force into a position they are not familiar with (hello Jordan Pacheco) is not good enough. The Rockies need someone else at each of these positions. Who is available this coming off season? If the Rockies don't spend the 20 or so million dollars they having coming off of the books on a pitcher which infielder can they get for that price?
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
It's About The Money
News that the Cardinals have extended starting pitcher Chris Carpenter was a bit of a downer for Yankee fans, in that it reminded us how thin the starting pitching market is this offseason. The Yankees' starters have been surprisingly effective this year, but pretty much no one wants to try to navigate another season with this bunch. And though we were all dreaming of Felix Hernandez just a couple of years ago, a trend towards locking up talented young players has thinned the market substantially, and the Carpenter extension thins it even more.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Marlins Daily
In a year that has been one part disaster and two parts mediocrity for the Marlins, Emilio Bonifacio has produced offense and provided speed on the base paths all season long. The author of a 3.0 fWAR, the young utility player has been one of the most productive and valuable players to the team. Lets take a closer look at how he has done just that. While he has been getting on base with some proficiency, no one has accused Emilio Bonifacio of being a power hitter. He has accumulated just four home runs in his career, three of which have come this season
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
How big is that risk? Using BP’s support-neutral winning percentage (SNWP) to gauge starter performance without reference to run support, the per-game difference between the big three and the little two is huge: Pineiro’s SNWP is just .446, while Williams is at .458 in his four turns; the lowest SNWP among the big three is Santana’s at .547. Between those two groups, that’s a 10 percent swing on how likely you are to win an individual game with a single nightly elective decision over who starts. If the Angels are going to make up the difference, they need to squeeze every percentage of possible advantage.
Getting Weaver lined up to start on the last day of the season is nice, but very probably irrelevant. By the time Weaver’s start on the last day of the regular season rolls around, it may not matter if Weaver makes that start, or Geoff Zahn, or Brendan Fraser for all the good it’d do the Angels, because chances are they’ll already be done. The Angels’ problems exist beyond Sunday’s game against the Orioles.
The Angels need to do more than beat Baltimore, they need to beat time, and the best way to do that will be to start their best. Scioscia could squeeze out a 10th game in 13 from his big three if he moved all of them up a day to face Toronto, their next opponent, because even if the Angels sweep the O’s, they’re sure to still be chasing the Rangers. So why risk starting both Pineiro and Williams in the first two games against a good Blue Jays ballclub?
Instead, the Angels should bring all three of the power trio forward a day, and see about starting all three on three days’ rest in Toronto. Doing that puts their best starters in six of the next seven games, and gives the Halos a small prayer of making up ground. Rather than making plans for what to do on the last day, the Angels need to be thinking about the fact that they’re about to run out of tomorrows.
If Texas keeps its lead or expands it in the next week, Scioscia can chuck this short-rest gamble. It certainly won’t matter who’s starting on the last day. But by moving everyone who matters up next week in Toronto and not just Weaver on Sunday, he could still start Santana and Weaver in the first two games against Texas on regular rest. If Haren makes the middle start against Oakland on three days’ rest, he’d also be available on the last day of the season -- again, on three days’ rest -- if the Angels are still playing for something. They can worry about that when and if they get there.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Jerry Lai/US PresswireThis man is happy. You would be too if your team just won its 12th consecutive game.
It was Eric Karabell and Keith Law on Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast and we had a good ol’ time with no cat noises, discussing many issues including these…
1. At the risk of beating the drum too many times, when Randy Wells throws a two-hit shutout at your offense in your stadium, you need more offense. Still.
2. Why is Kevin Kolb more popular these days in Arizona than Justin Upton? It’s sad, in a way, but the Diamondbacks keep on keepin’ on.
3. The AL Central race is still a race, as a rotation of Mark Buehrles takes on another led by the potential Cy Young winner. Can Ozzie’s bunch make this interesting?
4. Who is the young Texas Rangers outfielder replacing Nelson Cruz? KLaw tells all about him and fellow Cuban Dayan Viciedo.
5. An emailer ranks the managers, and while we don’t necessarily agree with how he did it, it’s an interesting list.
Plus: More excellent emails, a tired Jered Weaver, an awesome Desmond Jennings, the future for Lance Berkman and Andrew Cashner and a whole lot more on a packed Tuesday edition of Baseball Today! Download now!
1. At the risk of beating the drum too many times, when Randy Wells throws a two-hit shutout at your offense in your stadium, you need more offense. Still.
2. Why is Kevin Kolb more popular these days in Arizona than Justin Upton? It’s sad, in a way, but the Diamondbacks keep on keepin’ on.
3. The AL Central race is still a race, as a rotation of Mark Buehrles takes on another led by the potential Cy Young winner. Can Ozzie’s bunch make this interesting?
4. Who is the young Texas Rangers outfielder replacing Nelson Cruz? KLaw tells all about him and fellow Cuban Dayan Viciedo.
5. An emailer ranks the managers, and while we don’t necessarily agree with how he did it, it’s an interesting list.
Plus: More excellent emails, a tired Jered Weaver, an awesome Desmond Jennings, the future for Lance Berkman and Andrew Cashner and a whole lot more on a packed Tuesday edition of Baseball Today! Download now!
This late in the year, it’s easy to start getting into who’s doing the best job in the more obscure areas, some of which wind up mattering an awful lot, and some of which are just interesting to know. Today’s quick take on statistical feats is on the pitchers who’ve done the best job to help throttle opponents’ running games. If you’re fond of past greats like Terry Mulholland, Andy Pettitte or Steve Carlton, these should be your heroes today:
Keeping the double play in order is useful enough as is, but additional benefits include keeping runners close to hinder their ability to take extra bases on balls in play. It’s a tactical skill that reflects a distinct difference in approach; some pitchers take this part of their job very seriously, others don’t focus on it as much, and not all of them have the benefit of strong-armed catchers. Seeing Buehrle here when his most regular receiver is the oft-criticized A.J. Pierzysnki should remind you of that, but seeing Weaver make this list serves notice that some guys just don't cut opponents slack in any phase of the game.
Shields’ performance is a breakthrough in the pickoffs department. While he’s always been good at containing the running game, his career total of pickoffs before this year was eight, making him more than worthy of a Dave Schoenfield post a few weeks back. He’s a long ways from Charlie Hough’s right-handed record of 73 (using B-Ref’s 1950 cutoff to make that determination), but the knuckleballer’s single-season mark of 14 is still in reach if runners aren’t careful.
It’s interesting to note that MLB’s leader in times an opponent was caught stealing while he was on the mound is Cleveland’s Justin Masterson with 14 baserunner kills in 25 attempts. Since he’s had to rely on Carlos Santana as his receiver far more often than the stronger-armed Lou Marson, you can give Masterson a big chunk of credit for six of the 15 attempts against Santana as well as a share for eight of 10 caught the third of the time he’s had Marson.
That said, there are pitchers who have been remarkably successful pitching despite their relative indifference of their baserunners. In this as in so many other ways, Nolan Ryan was in a class by himself by seeing a record 757 bases stolen against him in more than a thousand attempts, at a 75 percent success rate. That wasn’t merely a function of longevity, as Phil Niekro pitched just 18 more innings on his career, but allowed more than 300 fewer stolen bases while getting stolen off of at just a 67 percent clip.
More recent examples of pitchers who kept their focus on the men at the plate and less so the runners aboard include Hideo Nomo in 2001 (with 52 steals allowed in 63 attempts) and Chris Young for the Padres in 2007 with 44 steals with no one caught -- fairly unambiguous examples of hurlers with slow deliveries that inspired people to run on them. This year’s most permissive pitchers when it comes to let runners steal comprise a trio tied with minus-4 RsbP: the Braves’ Tommy Hanson (30-for-33 success on steals, no pickoffs), Boston’s John Lackey (27-for-30, no pickoffs) and the Dodgers’ Ted Lilly (29-for-31, a pickoff).
Tomorrow, we’ll get into the other half of batteries, and make our way around to hitting and pitching as well as fielding-related topics.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Keeping the double play in order is useful enough as is, but additional benefits include keeping runners close to hinder their ability to take extra bases on balls in play. It’s a tactical skill that reflects a distinct difference in approach; some pitchers take this part of their job very seriously, others don’t focus on it as much, and not all of them have the benefit of strong-armed catchers. Seeing Buehrle here when his most regular receiver is the oft-criticized A.J. Pierzysnki should remind you of that, but seeing Weaver make this list serves notice that some guys just don't cut opponents slack in any phase of the game.
Shields’ performance is a breakthrough in the pickoffs department. While he’s always been good at containing the running game, his career total of pickoffs before this year was eight, making him more than worthy of a Dave Schoenfield post a few weeks back. He’s a long ways from Charlie Hough’s right-handed record of 73 (using B-Ref’s 1950 cutoff to make that determination), but the knuckleballer’s single-season mark of 14 is still in reach if runners aren’t careful.
It’s interesting to note that MLB’s leader in times an opponent was caught stealing while he was on the mound is Cleveland’s Justin Masterson with 14 baserunner kills in 25 attempts. Since he’s had to rely on Carlos Santana as his receiver far more often than the stronger-armed Lou Marson, you can give Masterson a big chunk of credit for six of the 15 attempts against Santana as well as a share for eight of 10 caught the third of the time he’s had Marson.
That said, there are pitchers who have been remarkably successful pitching despite their relative indifference of their baserunners. In this as in so many other ways, Nolan Ryan was in a class by himself by seeing a record 757 bases stolen against him in more than a thousand attempts, at a 75 percent success rate. That wasn’t merely a function of longevity, as Phil Niekro pitched just 18 more innings on his career, but allowed more than 300 fewer stolen bases while getting stolen off of at just a 67 percent clip.
More recent examples of pitchers who kept their focus on the men at the plate and less so the runners aboard include Hideo Nomo in 2001 (with 52 steals allowed in 63 attempts) and Chris Young for the Padres in 2007 with 44 steals with no one caught -- fairly unambiguous examples of hurlers with slow deliveries that inspired people to run on them. This year’s most permissive pitchers when it comes to let runners steal comprise a trio tied with minus-4 RsbP: the Braves’ Tommy Hanson (30-for-33 success on steals, no pickoffs), Boston’s John Lackey (27-for-30, no pickoffs) and the Dodgers’ Ted Lilly (29-for-31, a pickoff).
Tomorrow, we’ll get into the other half of batteries, and make our way around to hitting and pitching as well as fielding-related topics.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Weekly preview: Battle for home field
August, 29, 2011
8/29/11
1:07
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
It's not even September and we may be down to just two races: the Rangers lead the Angels by three games in the AL West and the Diamondbacks lead the Giants by four in the NL West. There is hope the Rays (6.5 behind the Yankees) or White Sox (six behind the Tigers) will claw back into things. Let's check out the week ahead.
SERIES OF THE WEEK
Yankees at Red Sox, Tuesday through Thursday
Tuesday: CC Sabathia (17-7, 2.99) vs. John Lackey (12-9, 5.98)
Wednesday: Phil Hughes (4-4, 6.46) vs. Josh Beckett (11-5, 2.43)
Thursday: A.J. Burnett (9-11, 5.31) vs. Andrew Miller (6-1, 4.42)
Home-field advantage in the playoffs is important, but not all that important. As Dayn Perry writes on ESPN Insider today, since 1998 the home playoff team has won 54.9 percent of its games, nearly the same percentage as the regular season. The team with the home-field advantage has also won 48 of 91 series since 1998, or 53.8 percentage. What's more important is winning the first game of a series, particularly in the best-of-five Division Series; since 1995 the team that won the first game went on to win the Division Series nearly 72 percent of the time.
That said, I think both teams want to win the AL East, both for pride and also for the possibility of avoiding starting on the road in Texas, since the Rangers are a much better team at home. Hughes had been excellent in August until his last start, when the A's knocked him out in the third inning. Burnett allowed 30 runs in 22.2 innings in August and he allowed runs in his only start against Boston this season. Miller is still trying to get his mechanics into a consistent rhythm and release point, but his last two starts were excellent, especially his last one in Texas where he held the Rangers scoreless over 6.1 innings, struck out six and induced nine groundballs.
PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
John Danks (6-9, 3.63) vs. Justin Verlander (20-5, 2.38), White Sox at Tigers, Friday
Verlander has won eight straight starts and should have five starts remaining, giving him a chance to be the first pitcher to win 25 games since Bob Welch of the 1990 A's. If the White Sox have any chance to the Tigers, they'll likely have to sweep this weekend series. Don't count out on Danks coming up big -- he has a 2.03 ERA since June 6.
THREE SWINGS
1. Ervin Santana won his start on three days' rest for the Angels, but Jered Weaver got roughed up a bit on Sunday, tiring in the seventh inning. Considering game-time temperature was 100 degrees and Weaver was pitching in a ballpark where the ball flies out, it's hard to know if Sunday's mediocre results came from pitching on short rest or not. If I were Mike Scioscia, I'd definitely consider starting Santana, Weaver and Dan Haren on short rest at some point. The Angels do need to take advantage of the next three series -- they play the Mariners twice and Twins once, while the Rangers have two series against the Rays and one against the Red Sox. And while I liked Scioscia's decision to move up Santana and Weaver, his lineup decisions are still hurting the club. As The Common Man pointed out, Mike Trout is hitting .389/.450/.778 with two homers in 20 PAs since his recall, so of course he sat Sunday. And don't get me started on Jeff Mathis ...
2. Zack Greinke, who improved to 10-0 at home on Sunday, returned from the DL on May 4. Since then, the Brewers have the best record in the NL at 67-37 ... yes, better than the Phillies' 63-37 mark. The Brewers are on pace to break their franchise record for wins (95 in 1979 and 1982) and even have an outside chance at catching the Phillies for best record in the NL. They have eight more losses, but just two fewer wins. As Bill Baer points out, if they Phillies play all their remaining regular-season games, they'll finish with 33 games in 31 days. That schedule, combined with the desire to rest some regulars, could give the red-hot Brewers the opportunity to secure home-field advantage.
3. Matt Kemp is batting .320/.390/.574 and absolutely remains in the NL MVP race. It's worth noting, however, that only five players have won an MVP Award from a losing team: Alex Rodriguez of the 2003 Rangers, Cal Ripken of the 1991 Orioles, Andre Dawson of the 1987 Cubs, and Ernie Banks of the 1958 and '59 Cubs. While Kemp may end up as deserving of the honor, I don't think he'll win -- his year doesn't stand out above his peers like Rodriguez or Ripken, who were clearly the best players in their league those seasons. (Dawson is another matter; that was one of the worst MVP choices ever.)
SERIES OF THE WEEK
Yankees at Red Sox, Tuesday through Thursday
Tuesday: CC Sabathia (17-7, 2.99) vs. John Lackey (12-9, 5.98)
Wednesday: Phil Hughes (4-4, 6.46) vs. Josh Beckett (11-5, 2.43)
Thursday: A.J. Burnett (9-11, 5.31) vs. Andrew Miller (6-1, 4.42)
Home-field advantage in the playoffs is important, but not all that important. As Dayn Perry writes on ESPN Insider today, since 1998 the home playoff team has won 54.9 percent of its games, nearly the same percentage as the regular season. The team with the home-field advantage has also won 48 of 91 series since 1998, or 53.8 percentage. What's more important is winning the first game of a series, particularly in the best-of-five Division Series; since 1995 the team that won the first game went on to win the Division Series nearly 72 percent of the time.
That said, I think both teams want to win the AL East, both for pride and also for the possibility of avoiding starting on the road in Texas, since the Rangers are a much better team at home. Hughes had been excellent in August until his last start, when the A's knocked him out in the third inning. Burnett allowed 30 runs in 22.2 innings in August and he allowed runs in his only start against Boston this season. Miller is still trying to get his mechanics into a consistent rhythm and release point, but his last two starts were excellent, especially his last one in Texas where he held the Rangers scoreless over 6.1 innings, struck out six and induced nine groundballs.
PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
John Danks (6-9, 3.63) vs. Justin Verlander (20-5, 2.38), White Sox at Tigers, Friday
Verlander has won eight straight starts and should have five starts remaining, giving him a chance to be the first pitcher to win 25 games since Bob Welch of the 1990 A's. If the White Sox have any chance to the Tigers, they'll likely have to sweep this weekend series. Don't count out on Danks coming up big -- he has a 2.03 ERA since June 6.
THREE SWINGS
1. Ervin Santana won his start on three days' rest for the Angels, but Jered Weaver got roughed up a bit on Sunday, tiring in the seventh inning. Considering game-time temperature was 100 degrees and Weaver was pitching in a ballpark where the ball flies out, it's hard to know if Sunday's mediocre results came from pitching on short rest or not. If I were Mike Scioscia, I'd definitely consider starting Santana, Weaver and Dan Haren on short rest at some point. The Angels do need to take advantage of the next three series -- they play the Mariners twice and Twins once, while the Rangers have two series against the Rays and one against the Red Sox. And while I liked Scioscia's decision to move up Santana and Weaver, his lineup decisions are still hurting the club. As The Common Man pointed out, Mike Trout is hitting .389/.450/.778 with two homers in 20 PAs since his recall, so of course he sat Sunday. And don't get me started on Jeff Mathis ...
2. Zack Greinke, who improved to 10-0 at home on Sunday, returned from the DL on May 4. Since then, the Brewers have the best record in the NL at 67-37 ... yes, better than the Phillies' 63-37 mark. The Brewers are on pace to break their franchise record for wins (95 in 1979 and 1982) and even have an outside chance at catching the Phillies for best record in the NL. They have eight more losses, but just two fewer wins. As Bill Baer points out, if they Phillies play all their remaining regular-season games, they'll finish with 33 games in 31 days. That schedule, combined with the desire to rest some regulars, could give the red-hot Brewers the opportunity to secure home-field advantage.
3. Matt Kemp is batting .320/.390/.574 and absolutely remains in the NL MVP race. It's worth noting, however, that only five players have won an MVP Award from a losing team: Alex Rodriguez of the 2003 Rangers, Cal Ripken of the 1991 Orioles, Andre Dawson of the 1987 Cubs, and Ernie Banks of the 1958 and '59 Cubs. While Kemp may end up as deserving of the honor, I don't think he'll win -- his year doesn't stand out above his peers like Rodriguez or Ripken, who were clearly the best players in their league those seasons. (Dawson is another matter; that was one of the worst MVP choices ever.)
Out of the eight races in baseball (three divisional races and a wild card for each league) there are only two still up for grabs, and both are in the West. In the National League West, the out-of-nowhere Arizona Diamondbacks have a three-game lead over the defending champs, the San Francisco Giants; in the American League the Texas Rangers had a two-game lead over the charging Angels (of Anaheim, Orange County, Los Angeles or California) going into Friday night’s play.
The major news coming out of the Dallas-Fort Worth area is that the Angels will pitch Ervin Santana and Cy Young wannabe Jered Weaver on three days’ rest. Mike Scioscia said that both pitchers feel great after their last start and that “one time around, it’s no big deal.”
Pitchers usually throw in the bullpen a few days after they start to “get work in.” They obviously don’t throw 100 pitches and it isn’t a live-game environment, but they are used to throwing. What we don’t know is how Santana and Weaver will fare pitching in a real game with playoff implications on only three days’ rest.
Turning to Baseball-Reference.com to check on how pitchers have done on three days’ rest in recent history, you might figure that it does not happen often these days. In fact, it seems as if teams are far more willing to go to six-man rotations than pitch on three days’ rest. At first I checked the past 10 seasons to see how many games were thrown on three days’ rest; Baseball-Reference.com returned 702 such instances. Maybe 10 years is too many? How about since the start of the new PED testing era … which isn’t to say pitchers were using PEDs; we all know that only hitters and two guys named Clemens and Pettitte were using the juice, right?
Anyway, cutting my search back to 2005, Baseball-Reference.com returned only 393 instances in which the starting hurler took the mound after a three-day break. But there is a flaw: According to B-R.com 21 pitchers have pitched on three days’ rest already in 2011. Can that be true? One of the more recent games it lists was a start by Dan Runzler of San Francisco; something smells fishy and it isn’t McCovey Cove. Checking Runzler’s game logs of 2011, he went on three days’ rest, but his appearance prior to his start on Aug. 21 was in a relief role; looks like they need to add some if/then commands to BR.com’s search.
More helpfully, a presentation by J.C. Bradbury and Sean Forman essentially says that there are not enough back-to-back starts in which a pitcher goes on three days’ rest or less to confidently say that the lack of rest impacts the pitcher's performance negatively or positively. Sort of a buzzkill, eh?
What is really sort of upsetting is that if I continue to add qualifications to my search the sample size is still pretty darn big. I wanted to know how many quality starts have been thrown on three days’ rest or less since 2005 regardless if the pitcher is making consecutive starts. So I added that the outing had to last six innings or more and the pitcher had to allow three earned runs or fewer. There are still 159 such instances. One of the more recent examples of a quality start thrown on three days’ rest was by Jerome Williams (formerly of the San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs and oblivion), pitching for -- you guessed it -- the Angels. Williams has two appearances in 2011, the first on Aug. 17 in which he pitched two-thirds of an inning, and the second on Aug. 21, when he started for the Angels and lasted seven innings against the Baltimore Orioles, a game that the Angels won 7-1.
Did Williams' performance give Scioscia the idea to throw Santana and Weaver? Or is Scioscia just looking for CC Sabathia circa 2008 with the Milwaukee Brewers, when the big lefty worked on short rest to help deliver a playoff slot? Either way, the biggest series this weekend just got more interesting.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
David Richard/US PresswireJim Thome finds that a Cleveland hero receives a hero's welcome.
Travis Lay writes for Blake Street Bulletin, which covers the Rockies for the SweetSpot network; you can keep up with him on Tweet here.
The major news coming out of the Dallas-Fort Worth area is that the Angels will pitch Ervin Santana and Cy Young wannabe Jered Weaver on three days’ rest. Mike Scioscia said that both pitchers feel great after their last start and that “one time around, it’s no big deal.”
AROUND THE SWEETSPOT NETWORK
Capitol Avenue Club
As just a 24-year-old rookie, Brandon Beachy is putting himself alongside some of the best strikeout pitchers of all time. Currently, Brandon Beachy is experiencing one of those elite seasons. Although he stands at exactly 4.00 K/BB and just over 10 K/9, a strong finish to the season will have him end up in this exclusive club. Exclusive may be an understatement, as this club features six Cy Young Award winners who have combined to reach the benchmarks 14 times (Zack Greinke is on pace to finish the season with these totals, but could fall below the requirements by season's end). If both Greinke and Beachy reach the totals, they will be the 10th and 11th members to join.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Mets Today
Irene may have been on everyone's minds, but it was Chris Capuano who blew away the Braves like a hurricane. Capuano completed his first game and pitched his first shutout in five years; it was the fourth CG and third shutout of his career. Additionally, he established a career high in strikeouts with 13. Allowing only two baserunners -- one single, one double -- it was easily Cappy's best performance of 2011 and the best-pitched game by a Mets starter all season. To top it all off, it was the first nine-inning complete game by a Met in 2011 and the first shutout of the year as well. What else is there to say? He was spectacular.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Bay City Ball
I really don't want to talk about this team right now. When Henry Sosa -- on three days' rest -- shuts you down, well, that's not a very good sign. If the Giants' offense were a person, they would probably be written up somewhere in the Darwin Awards. I think the entry would go something like this: The Giants come home from a hard day's work and accidentally light themselves on fire while trying to open a jar of pickles with a blowtorch and a 10-gallon drum of gasoline. That's the human equivalent for this offense. If the offense were a person, he'd be walking around with singed eyebrows right about now.
For the rest of this blog post, click here.
Pitchers usually throw in the bullpen a few days after they start to “get work in.” They obviously don’t throw 100 pitches and it isn’t a live-game environment, but they are used to throwing. What we don’t know is how Santana and Weaver will fare pitching in a real game with playoff implications on only three days’ rest.
Turning to Baseball-Reference.com to check on how pitchers have done on three days’ rest in recent history, you might figure that it does not happen often these days. In fact, it seems as if teams are far more willing to go to six-man rotations than pitch on three days’ rest. At first I checked the past 10 seasons to see how many games were thrown on three days’ rest; Baseball-Reference.com returned 702 such instances. Maybe 10 years is too many? How about since the start of the new PED testing era … which isn’t to say pitchers were using PEDs; we all know that only hitters and two guys named Clemens and Pettitte were using the juice, right?
Anyway, cutting my search back to 2005, Baseball-Reference.com returned only 393 instances in which the starting hurler took the mound after a three-day break. But there is a flaw: According to B-R.com 21 pitchers have pitched on three days’ rest already in 2011. Can that be true? One of the more recent games it lists was a start by Dan Runzler of San Francisco; something smells fishy and it isn’t McCovey Cove. Checking Runzler’s game logs of 2011, he went on three days’ rest, but his appearance prior to his start on Aug. 21 was in a relief role; looks like they need to add some if/then commands to BR.com’s search.
More helpfully, a presentation by J.C. Bradbury and Sean Forman essentially says that there are not enough back-to-back starts in which a pitcher goes on three days’ rest or less to confidently say that the lack of rest impacts the pitcher's performance negatively or positively. Sort of a buzzkill, eh?
What is really sort of upsetting is that if I continue to add qualifications to my search the sample size is still pretty darn big. I wanted to know how many quality starts have been thrown on three days’ rest or less since 2005 regardless if the pitcher is making consecutive starts. So I added that the outing had to last six innings or more and the pitcher had to allow three earned runs or fewer. There are still 159 such instances. One of the more recent examples of a quality start thrown on three days’ rest was by Jerome Williams (formerly of the San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs and oblivion), pitching for -- you guessed it -- the Angels. Williams has two appearances in 2011, the first on Aug. 17 in which he pitched two-thirds of an inning, and the second on Aug. 21, when he started for the Angels and lasted seven innings against the Baltimore Orioles, a game that the Angels won 7-1.
Did Williams' performance give Scioscia the idea to throw Santana and Weaver? Or is Scioscia just looking for CC Sabathia circa 2008 with the Milwaukee Brewers, when the big lefty worked on short rest to help deliver a playoff slot? Either way, the biggest series this weekend just got more interesting.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
David Richard/US PresswireJim Thome finds that a Cleveland hero receives a hero's welcome.ABOUT THIS BLOG
David Schoenfield
Schoenfield is a senior writer for ESPN.com and been with ESPN since 1995, having served as baseball editor and Page 2 senior editor. Follow Dave on Twitter: @dschoenfield and the SweetSpot blog on Facebook.
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