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When the Detroit Tigers inked their prodigal son to a contract back in January, the bulk of the Tigers fan base knew Prince Fielder’s presence would come with strings attached. They knew that the cost of signing him was not exclusively limited to the nine-year deal, or the $214 million, or the drama with his estranged father.

They knew that, given the fact that All-Star first baseman Miguel Cabrera was already on the roster, there would have to be some shuffling done. Questions were quickly answered at the news conference announcing Fielder's deal; the more agile Cabrera would move across the diamond and play third base, as he had when he first arrived in Detroit four years ago, and Fielder would play first base.

Immediately, you took a look at the projected infield of Fielder, a platoon of Brandon Inge/Ryan Raburn/Ramon Santiago at second base, Jhonny Peralta at shortstop, and Cabrera, and you cringed. While national writers and bloggers lamented how this would affect the Tigers’ starting pitching, the Tigers fan base, for the most part, shrugged and said, "We know it’s bad, we know there’s no range. But. They. Will. Score. Runs."

Well, here we are, nearly two months into the season and the Tigers sit at 21-24 entering Saturday's action and are in third place in the AL Central. The bullpen hasn’t been consistent (while better as of late, they still sit at a league-high 4.64 ERA), and the offense has been suspect and stagnant, but both of those will most likely improve as the season goes on. The defense, however, has certainly lived up to its reputation. I’m not sure it’s going to get better.

On May 16, the Tigers and Rick Porcello faced the last-place Minnesota Twins. Porcello induced two groundballs to start the game. Fielder fielded the first one cleanly for one out and Santiago (starting at shortstop to give Peralta the day off) fielded the second one cleanly for what should have been the second out. However, Fielder flat out dropped the throw, and Brian Dozier was safe at first on the error.

The Twins capitalized. Joe Mauer doubled Dozier home, and Josh Willingham doubled Mauer home. While it wasn’t the final out of the inning, Fielder’s gaffe on an easy play turned into a pair of runs before Porcello could recover, striking out the final two batters of the inning.

The Tigers scored once in the bottom half of the inning and Porcello returned to the mound trailing only 2-1. After he recorded two outs and allowed a single, Erik Komatsu bounced a groundball to Raburn, who booted the easy play. With both runners safe, Dozier stepped to the plate and promptly swatted a three-run home run to make it 5-1, Minnesota. Four of those runs came courtesy of the Tigers’ infield defense.

The Tigers ended up losing the game, 11-7, each member of the infield defense had an error, and the game became the perfect example of how to lose when professional baseball players forget to play defense. It wasn’t the first game, and it certainly won’t be the last.

Defensive efficiency measures the percentage of batted balls in play that are converted into outs. It’s obviously not the only thing you look at when measuring a team defense, but it is one thing. And in this area, the Tigers are among the worst in baseball, ranking 26th in the majors at .692. The Blue Jays top the majors with a .735, meaning they're turning an extra 4.3 percent of balls in play into outs compared to the Tigers. The Tigers are obviously not a very clean fielding team as a whole, led by their uninspiring infield.

Defensive Runs Saved uses video review to estimate each fielder’s defensive contribution and compares each fielder to the league average for his position. The Tigers' infield defense looks like this:

1B Prince Fielder: -5 runs (386 innings)
2B Ryan Raburn: -2 runs (162 innings)
2B Ramon Santiago: -1 run (132 innings)
2B Danny Worth: -1 run (60 innings)
2B Brandon Inge: -2 runs (43 innings)
3B Miguel Cabrera: -3 runs (388 innings)
SS Jhonny Peralta: -4 runs (348 innings)
SS Ramon Santiago: -1 run (50 innings)

That’s pretty brutal, especially when you consider that this is what the defense looks like a quarter of the way through the season. I mean, oh man, holy tomato sauce, something has to be done here, right? No wonder people punch their mirrors. Looking at yourself is sometimes ugly.

So, what is going to happen going forward?

The Tigers like to be traditional and old school and they like to stick to certain roles for as long as they can. I doubt we’ll be seeing any changes here unless they swing a trade later this summer.

With Delmon Young ousted out of left field thanks to the start of Andy Dirks, the designated hitter position is taken. I don’t think we’ll be seeing Fielder moving to DH and Cabrera to first base, nor do I think that they will do that even if they make a trade.

Peralta was moved to third base when he was with the Indians two years ago due to his lack of range at shortstop. After a big 2011, his offense thus far has been suspect. He’s also about to turn 30 years old and on the final year of his contract.

Raburn's versatility would keep the Tigers from trading him even if he wasn’t hitting .148/.214/.217 through the first two months of the season.

No, I think the Tigers are sticking with what they have. They are going to rely on the hope that their offense eventually clicks, their pitching dominates (i.e., they need to rely even more on strikeout pitchers Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and, apparently, Drew Smyly), and the rest of the AL Central can perform like they did last year and allow Detroit to run away with the division.

Some might ask if that is realistic. Maybe it’s not. But do they really have a choice?

Josh Worn writes about the Tigers at the Walkoff Woodward blog.

OK, I'll give you Justin Verlander.

I'll even give you Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson.

But five through 25? I think I'll take the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers.

The Indians beat the Tigers 5-3 on Tuesday, even though Ubaldo Jimenez struggled once again with his control. Relief ace Chris Perez, who criticized Indians fans on Saturday for their lack of support (Cleveland is last in the majors in attendance), was greeted with a thunderous ovation as he came in out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. With two runners on, he struck out Cabrera and got Fielder to ground out.

Just another save. "That's the loudest I've ever been cheered here," Perez said. "I was pumped, the adrenaline was going. It could have gone the other way. I came through. I didn't know which way it was going to go. I was thankful it went the good way."

The good way pushed the Indians to 24-18. The Tigers are 20-22, and for the life of me I can't understand why everyone still thinks Detroit is the better team. Mind you, I'm not saying the Indians are better. I just don't see why the Tigers are better. Just because everyone picked them before the season?

Once you get past those big shiny names on the Tigers' roster, if you want to pinpoint one big difference between the two clubs, it's a little statistic that us sabermetric types love: the old base on balls. The Indians lead the American League with 188 walks, 25 more than any other team; the Tigers have 127 walks, ninth in the league. That patience will go a long ways toward giving Cleveland an offense capable of scoring as many runs as Detroit's (the Indians have outscored the Tigers by one run so far, 184 to 183).

In fact, when you go position by position, you'll see what I mean.

Catcher: Carlos Santana versus Alex Avila. So far, Avila has been unable to match 2011's .366 average on balls in play, the sixth-best average in the majors. Which means he's hitting like he did in 2010. Santana, meanwhile, is a walks machine who hit 27 home runs in 2011.

First base: Casey Kotchman versus Prince Fielder. Obvious edge to Fielder, of course. The most interesting thing about his start (.292/.354/.472) is his walk rate is down from 15.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Part of that is he was intentionally walked 32 times a year ago, just three this year.

Second base: Jason Kipnis versus Ramon Santiago/Ryan Raburn. Please. Big edge to Kipnis with Santiago and Raburn both hitting under .200. Will Detroit make a move here?

Third base: Jack Hannahan/Jose Lopez versus Miguel Cabrera. This may be the first and only time you'll see Jose Lopez mentioned in the same breath as Miguel Cabrera. So far, however, this edge has been minimal. Cabrera is hitting .304/.362/.488, Hannahan .287/.365/.436 but with better defense. According to Defensive Runs Saved, Cabrera has cost the Tigers four runs -- worst among third basemen (tied with Hanley Ramirez).

Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera versus Jhonny Peralta. With the Indians preaching plate discipline, check out Cabrera: Last year, 44 walks and 119 strikeouts; this year, 18 walks and just 12 strikeouts. He's hitting .309 with an OBP over .400 but hasn't lost any power. In 2011, he swung at 31 percent of the pitches out of the strike but he has cut that down to 24 percent. Small differences can go a long way. Peralta was a big surprise for Detroit last season but hasn't matched the numbers in the plate or in the field.

Left field: Johnny Damon/Shelley Duncan versus Andy Dirks/Delmon Young. Damon has looked terrible. Dirks has looked great, but too early to evaluate this one.

Center field: Michael Brantley versus Austin Jackson. With his defense and hot start at the plate, Jackson has been as valuable as any player in the American League not named Josh Hamilton.

Right field: Shin-Soo Choo versus Brennan Boesch. This one isn't close and that's with Choo off to a middling start in the power department. Choo has a .391 OBP, Boesch a .271 OBP. Choo is a solid defender while Boesch is slow and lumbering. With his poor start at the plate and poor defense, Boesch has been one of the worst regular in baseball so far. Choo is an underrated asset and I love Manny Acta's decision to move him into the leadoff spot.

Designated hitter: Travis Hafner versus field. Cleveland's designated hitters have six homers and .370 OBP (fourth in the league). Detroit's DHs have one home run and a .238 OBP (13th in the league). Big, big edge to Pronk.

Rotation. With the best pitcher on the planet, Detroit's rotation has posted a 3.87 ERA; without the best pitcher on the planet, Cleveland's rotation has posted a 3.94 ERA. Both teams have played 42 games and Cleveland's starters have thrown 12 more innings. Moving forward, maybe you think Detroit's group will perform better. After all, Doug Fister missed some, Max Scherzer just struck out 15 in game (never mind that the Pirates have been an historic strikeout binge of late) and Rick Porcello will put it together one of these years, because everyone says so. Meanwhile, Ubaldo Jimenez can't throw strikes, Justin Masterson hasn't pitched as well as last year and Derek Lowe is doing it with smoke, mirrors and a deal with the devil. The one thing the Cleveland starters do is keep the ball in the park; they've allowed 20 home runs, second-fewest in the league. Look, maybe you think Scherzer will start pitching better; I'd say so will Masterson. Maybe you're a Porcello believer; I'm not, especially with that infield defense behind him. Lowe is a fluke? Well, let's see how Drew Smyly does as the scouting reports get around on him.

Bullpen. Neither pen has been stellar, as Cleveland's 4.16 ERA ranks 13th in the AL and Detroit's 4.76 ranks 14th. Cleveland's top guys, however, have been pretty solid -- Chris Perez is 14 of 15 in save opportunities while Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Nick Hagadone have pitched well. Detroit's top two of Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit, so dominant a year ago, have both struggled to throw strikes.

I said before the season that I believed the Tigers were drastically overrated. On the Baseball Today podcast late in spring training, I predicted Cleveland would win the division. Unfortunately, when ESPN.com published predictions a few days later, I changed my pick to Detroit. I bought into the hype.

I'm not buying any longer. This division is wide, wide open. (And I haven't even mentioned the White Sox!)

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Sometimes the analysis is pretty easy.

The Detroit Tigers' lineup on Sunday featured 31-year-old minor league veteran Brad Eldred, who last played regularly in the majors in 2005, hitting fifth. He was followed by Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, Gerald Laird and Danny Worth. You're not going to beat CC Sabathia with that group.

In recent days, Tigers relievers have included Luke Putkonen, Collin Balester, Brayan Villarreal and Thad Weber. Who? Villarreal was the losing pitcher on Friday night versus the New York Yankees.

On Sunday, Max Scherzer walked seven batters in a 6-2 loss to the Yankees. Earlier in the week he got hit around by the Mariners. His ERA is 7.77 and he has yet to pitch more than six innings in any of his five starts.

In 2011, Rick Porcello ranked 84th among 93 qualified pitchers in ERA. Still, many projected a breakout season. Good stuff, they say, good hard sinker. So far, it has been the same Porcello: A lot of hits allowed and not many strikeouts. Two starts ago against the Texas Rangers, he got three outs and gave up 10 hits and nine runs. Against the Seattle Mariners, he gave up five runs and two home runs. He has a 6.45 ERA.

With Doug Fister on the disabled list, rookie Adam Wilk made three starts, losing all three and allowing 21 hits in 11 innings.

Despite batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, No. 2 hitter Brennan Boesch is hitting .231 and has just two walks with 20 strikeouts.

Prince Fielder is finding the pitching a little tougher in the American League. After homering twice against the Boston Red Sox in the second game of the season, he didn't homer again until Sunday.

Left fielder/designated hitter Delmon Young was placed on the restricted list after getting arrested on Friday for allegedly attacking a man in front of a Manhattan hotel and yelling anti-Semitic remarks.

Closer Jose Valverde and setup man Joaquin Benoit hardly look like the dominant duo of a year ago, having allowed 23 hits and 16 walks in 19 innings.

Listening to the Tigers' local radio broadcast the other day, the announcers described the team's energy as listless.

And then there's the defense. Entering Sunday, the Tigers ranked 26th in the majors in defensive runs saved, at 13 runs below average. It's not all Cabrera's fault. He's at minus-2, but Jhonny Peralta is minus-4 at shortstop, Fielder minus-3 at first base, Boesch minus-3 in right field and Raburn minus-2 at second base. The totals should not be surprising as none of them have a reputation for being good defensive players.

That 4-0 start seems like a long time ago to Tigers fans. After starting 9-3, the Tigers have gone 2-8, they've been outscored by 10 runs on the season and their flaws have been exposed like a leaky pipe -- drip, drip, drip, a slow understanding that something isn't right. Detroit doesn't appear to be the super team it looked the first week of the season, but rather a team with little depth in the bullpen, a starting rotation that is relying too heavily on Justin Verlander, poor defense, and a lineup that needs Alex Avila and Peralta to start hitting.

Leyland showed some frustration after Sunday's loss, telling MLB.com that a crucial 2-2 pitch to Derek Jeter that he checked his swing on and was called a ball wasn't a bad call, even though catcher Laird said Scherzer hit his target. "That's all excuse stuff," Leyland said. "That Jeter pitch was a close pitch, but when you're that wild, you're not going to get close pitches."

Instead of escaping the inning, Scherzer allowed two more runs and he ended up throwing 119 pitches without getting out of the fifth inning. "Max is a huge key for us. It has to get better, plain and simple," Leyland said.

Is this a bad time to mention that all 50 ESPN.com voters in our preseason predictions file picked the Tigers to win the AL Central? Obviously, that cast the Tigers as overwhelming favorites to win the division. I was one of those 50, although I hesitated, even once saying on the "Baseball Today" podcast that I was going to pick Cleveland to win the division, before changing my mind when I had to submit my vote.

OK, it's just 22 games and the Tigers are only one game out of first place in the AL Central, a division that has been collectively outscored by 63 runs so far. Rookie lefty Drew Smyly has been impressive. That still makes the Tigers the heavy favorite in this field of five.

If you want other good news, according to our RPI standings, the Tigers have also played the fourth-toughest schedule in the majors so far. The next month presents a schedule that could prove much kinder: Kansas City, the White Sox, at Seattle, at Oakland, at the White Sox, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, at Minnesota. Tigers fans will undoubtedly point out that Detroit was 25-26 as late as May 29 a year ago, and tied for first as late as July 20, before finishing with a 38-16 kick over the final two months. That surge coincided with Fister's arrival from Seattle, as he went 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA. Fister threw a bullpen session on Thursday and will make his first rehab start on Wednesday in Toledo, as he returns from a strained rib cage muscle.

Still, the Tigers will need more than Fister's return. They need Scherzer and Porcello to pitch better. They need a reliable arm in the bullpen besides Octavio Dotel. They need Fielder to start slugging. They need the defense to help out the pitchers a little more. Young? Ahh, he's not that good anyway.

In the end, I see an imperfect team, certainly not one that will win 100 games or even 95. I see a good team in a weak division, but a team that could easily finish fifth in the AL East. I see a team that is ripe for a surprise pennant race if one of their division rivals puts it together.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

First base: Mr Enigmatic. Is Max Scherzer a good pitcher? A mediocre pitcher? A potentially great pitcher? Last October, in Game 2 of the American League Division Series, we saw how good Scherzer can be when he pitched six scoreless innings, using an explosive, moving fastball to throttle the Yankees. And there he was two starts later in the American League Championship Series against the Rangers, getting knocked out in the third inning. One reason so many people predicted the Tigers to run away with the AL Central is they penciled in improvement for Scherzer and Rick Porcello. I wasn't quite so sure; both have maddeningly inconsistent in their young careers and it's been mostly bad Scherzer in 2012. The punchless Mariners roughed him up Tuesday for 10 hits and five runs in five innings, bumping his ERA to 8.24. Frankly, I can't figure him out. He has a nice 23/6 strikeout-to-walk but has allowed 30 hits in 19.2 innings. Unlucky on balls in play? Sure, probably. Mix in a little Miggy Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Jhonny Peralta as well. But it was similar last season, when he posted a 4.43 ERA: Good ratios, but too many hits and too many home runs (29). Coming on the heels of Porcello's one-inning stinker, the Detroit rotation after Justin Verlander remains a work in progress.

Second base: Narveson out for season. Tough day for pitchers, as Michael Pineda will get another opinion on his shoulder and Mike Pelfrey went on the disabled list with elbow inflammation and possibly worse. Brewers starter Chris Narveson, however, is done for the season after it was announced he'll undergo rotator cuff surgery. Narveson was a solid fifth last season, but Marco Estrada is a nice replacement -- maybe even a step up. A fastball/curve/changeup guy, the Nationals originally drafted Estrada but never quite believed in him since his fastball is 90-91, and the Brewers picked him up on waivers in 2010. He pitched well last season, including a 3.70 ERA in seven spot starts, and threw well last week with five innings of one-run ball, with nine strikeouts and no walks against the Rockies. He isn't flashy, but he throws strikes and should be solid. We talk a lot about the need for rotation depth. Estrada will end up being a key to the Brewers' season.

Third base: CarGo-es deep. The Rockies lost 5-4 to the Pirates as the bullpen blew a lead in the eighth inning but the good news was Carlos Gonzalez finally hit his first two home runs, improving his triple-slash line to .278/.328/.500 (he raised his average 38 points and his slugging percentage 140 points in one night). Nice, but the Rockies will need more ... like 2010 more, when Gonzalez led the National League with a .336 average, slugged .598 and finished third in the MVP vote. That season was built on a .384 average on balls in play, third-best in the majors. His BABIP returned to more normal levels last season and his numbers fell. Gonzalez did start out slow last April (.228, one homer) before heating up in May and June, only to come down with a wrist injury in July that he aggravated again in September. Hopefully this is a sign the wrist is completely healthy and he'll start heating up.

Tweet of the night. A's rookie lefty Tom Milone improved to 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA with eight shutout innings against the White Sox.

His tweeting is boring as all get out but @tommymilone_57 is one hell of a pitcher. Outstanding.

— Brandon McCarthy (@BMcCarthy32) April 25, 2012

Last year, You Can't Predict Baseball came up with bold predictions for the year. We had a lot of fun coming up with them, and then laughing at how hilariously wrong they were at the end of the year. This year, we're bringing these predictions to SweetSpot, along with explanations for some of them. Keep in mind, these predictions are supposed to be bold, but not insane -- even we know the Orioles aren't going to the playoffs in 2012.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendrys Morales stays healthy all year.

Houston Astros: Bud Norris is top five in K/9 in the NL. We figured something good had to happen to the Astros, right? Norris actually has a pretty nice career K/9.

Oakland Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes is their starting center fielder by Memorial Day.

Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Morrow makes the jump to elite starting pitcher. He's struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings two years running, though his ERAs have remained ugly. We think this is the year his results finally match the stuff, especially considering his declining walk rate.

Atlanta Braves: Julio Teheran has more wins than Tim Hudson.

Milwaukee Brewers: Rickie Weeks leads the team in home runs. He was fourth on the team last year, with 20. In front of him were Corey Hart with 26, Ryan Braun with 33, and Prince Fielder with 38. Fielder is gone, and for this prediction we'll assume Braun will miss a third of the year due to a suspension. It's not too bold to think Weeks could pass Hart in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Beltran outproduces Albert Pujols from last year. Albert Pujols was great last year, but not quite best-player-of-his-generation Albert Pujols. If healthy, it's not absurd to think of Beltran outproducing Pujols' 5.1 WAR in 2011.

Chicago Cubs: Matt Garza isn't their best pitcher. It'll be Ryan Dempster, who had great peripherals but bad results last year.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill will be good again. He was great with them in limited time, and Arizona's park is quite hitter-friendly.

Los Angeles Dodgers: James Loney will be a top-three first baseman in the National League. Many thanks to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness for somewhat alerting us to this one. We just decided to take it semi-absurdly far.

San Francisco Giants: Madison Bumgarner is their best pitcher. In terms of ERA, he already wasn't very far behind Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, and his K/BB ratio eclipsed theirs by quite a bit.

Cleveland Indians: They'll have the best pitching in the American League Central. We're banking on Ubaldo Jimenez, making a major comeback to something closer to what he was in 2010, and the rest of the staff displaying the good that they did in 2011. We're also counting on the Tigers' starters not being very impressive behind Justin Verlander, which is bold but not quite insane, and the pitching of the White Sox, Twins and Royals not being able to keep up with Cleveland's.

Seattle Mariners: Jesus Montero catches 100-plus games. The Mariners probably aren't going to compete, so why not try and play him where he'll accrue the most value?

Miami Marlins: Despite all their new acquisitions and the hype, they still finish fourth in the NL East. When you think about it, this one isn't so crazy. If Josh Johnson isn't healthy and maybe even if he is their pitching still trails that of Philadelphia, Washington, and Atlanta; even with Heath Bell, we don't think their bullpen is as good, either. Their offense might be better than some of those teams', but the Marlins were quite a bit below league average offensively last year and we're not sure how much Jose Reyes is going to make up for that.

New York Mets: Mike Pelfrey is the worst starter in the NL. Pelfrey's been pretty terrible two of the past three years, and now they're moving the fences in at Citi Field. He was far better in his huge home stadium, but we're guessing with the moved-in walls he'll be significantly worse at Citi. Here at YCPB, we actually don't think the Mets are going to be quite as dire as many are saying, even if they do come in last place in the NL East - but Pelfrey won't be a bright spot.

Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg has a 17-strikeout game.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters is the best catcher in the AL. A lot of people are so obsessed with Wieters not matching the hype that they didn't notice he became a plus offensive performer last year, to go along with very good defense. His taking the next step isn't that bold as predictions go, especially if Joe Mauer has to move off catcher.

San Diego Padres: Luke Gregerson is a top-three closer in the NL.

Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels is their best starter. And this isn't meant to be a slight to Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, but considering their ages and the fact that Hamels is pretty darn good himself, plus a possible boost from a contract year...

Pittsburgh Pirates: Charlie Morton is their All-Star.

Texas Rangers: Yu Darvish isn't their best starter -- but he's still good. And we think he'll be pretty good, we just think Derek Holland will become more consistently good, or Matt Harrison will put up numbers like his 2011.

Tampa Bay Rays: James Shields will have no complete games. Predicting someone to have no complete games might not seem bold, but it is when it's a guy who was known as "Complete Game James" last season. Shields did have 11 complete games in 2011, an almost unheard-of number these days, but he had no complete games in 2009 or 2010.

Boston Red Sox: No one hits 30 home runs. This might seem crazy when you consider their great offensive numbers last year, but only one player on their team hit 30 home runs and it was Jacoby Ellsbury with 32.

Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Phillips is the best second baseman in the NL.

Colorado Rockies: Jamie Moyer will have the best HR/9 on the staff.

Kansas City Royals: They reach .500. While their pitching won't be great, their offense will take a big step forward this year. Combined with the rest of their division being the Tigers and some dumpster fires, it's not that difficult to see it happening.

Detroit Tigers: They score fewer runs than they did in 2011. Yes, that’s even with Fielder. It's not improbable that Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila and Delmon Young regress quite a bit from their numbers with Detroit last year, and that Prince Fielder's production "only" makes up for the offensive loss of Victor Martinez in 2012. They'll still have a very good offense, though.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer hits 15 home runs.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura gets ejected more times than Ozzie Guillen. Look at the state of the White Sox. We'd get ejected too.

New York Yankees: Hiroki Kuroda leads the team in ERA.

You Can't Predict Baseball is an affiliate of the SweetSpot network.

I went through our data and divided the information into six storylines to consider about the Detroit defense. A lot of this information is a starting point for discussions, and I’d suggest not viewing the numbers as absolutes, but as indicators.

1. Fielder rates poorly as a first baseman

Worst first basemen since 2006, Defensive Runs Saved:

Prince Fielder, minus-48 runs

Paul Konerko, minus-38 runs

Adam Dunn, minus-35 runs

Ryan Howard, minus-32 runs

Fielder’s defensive issues relate to a simple matter -- fielding batted balls in the areas in which first basemen record outs at least 50 percent of the time. This is covered in the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) metric. Fielder’s RZR since 2006 is .706, fourth-worst among those with at least 2,000 innings at first base.

Miguel Cabrera became a first baseman in 2008. Since then, he’s rated as having cost the Tigers 21 runs. In that same span, Fielder cost the Brewers 25 runs (though he had his best year in 2011, costing the Brewers just one run).

Fielder also does not fare well when it comes to video review. Baseball Info Solutions has video scouts who watch every play of every game and categorize plays as Good Fielding Plays (GFPs) and Defensive Misplays & Errors (DM&E).

Fielder’s 42 Defensive Misplays & Errors were the most in the majors in 2011 and his rate of one every 33 innings ranked ahead of only Daric Barton, Carlos Lee and Eric Hosmer among the 28 first basemen who played at least 500 innings. Fielder rates significantly worse than Cabrera, who averaged one misplay every 47 innings. Cabrera also made good plays more frequently. Here are totals of good fielding plays and misplays, prorated to 1,300 innings:


2. Cabrera didn't rate well at third base

In 2006 and 2007 while with the Marlins, Cabrera was credited with minus-25 Defensive Runs Saved, third-worst of any third baseman in the majors those two years.

Over the past two seasons, Brandon Inge, the Tigers' primary third baseman, has been an MLB average third baseman -- zero Defensive Runs Saved. Last season, Inge cost the Tigers two runs with his defense, the first season in his career in which he had negative Defensive Runs Saved,

3. Detroit's entire infield doesn't rate well

The Tigers were the only team in baseball for which every infield position produced a negative Defensive Runs Saved in 2011.

First base: minus-4

Second base: minus-9

Third base: minus-8

Shortstop: minus-2

But, as their fans will note, that team did win the AL Central and play in the ALCS.

4. Second base might be the bigger issue

The Tigers used six second basemen in 2011, with Ramon Santiago and Ryan Raburn the only two who played more than 400 innings. In 777 2/3 career innings at second base, Raburn has been charted as costing his team 14 runs. In 1,384 2/3 career innings at second base, Santiago has been credited with saving his team 2 runs. Both are back in 2012.

5. Worst defensive lineup versus best lineup

As a hypothetical, if we made the presumption that the Tigers went primarily with an infield of Fielder, Raburn, Jhonny Peralta and Cabrera, and each of them performed to their career Runs Saved average, with Fielder and Cabrera playing 1,300 innings, and Raburn and Peralta playing 1,100 innings, here’s how they would fare:

1B Fielder: minus-8

2B Raburn: minus-20

SS Peralta: minus-3

3B Cabrera: minus-12

That gives you a combined total of minus-43 Defensive Runs Saved, not taking into account who would fill in for the remaining innings (or much range Cabrera is likely to have lost since 2007). That’s 20 runs worse than the Tigers infield positions combined for last season.

What would the difference be if the Tigers played Cabrera at first, Santiago at second and Inge at third, using the same basic principles (working via career averages)?

1B Cabrera: minus-5 (three runs better than Fielder)

2B Santiago: plus-2 (22 runs better than Raburn)

SS Peralta: minus-3

3B Inge: plus-8 (20 runs better than Cabrera)

The Inge hypothetical might be a little optimistic. He’s rated league average (0 runs saved) over the past two seasons. But it’s still significantly better than Cabrera.

6. Which Tigers starters are most impacted by infield defense?

The Tigers have a combination of pitchers who are reliant on the groundball and those more reliant on the strikeout and balls hit in the air. Here is the 2011 groundball percentage of their four top starters, with their ranking among all AL pitchers who faced at least 250 batters:




Where this move may impact Porcello most is when he gets a right-handed hitter to pull a groundball. We can dig deep into our stats to show that Porcello was among the most successful in baseball when he got hitters to do that.

Our Trumedia video evaluation tool is able to isolate chunks of the field and provide stats related to them. On balls hit to the area that starts with the traditional shortstop-third base hole and extends down the left-field line, the average right-handed hitter hit .300 when they hit a groundball. Those facing Porcello over the past two seasons were 24-for-102 (.235).

We're back with more divisional position rankings for 2012. You can scream, you can holler, you can protest and call me names. But just because I rated your player lower than you think he deserves doesn't mean I hate your team.

(Here are the NL East and NL West rankings.)

Catcher
1. Alex Avila, Tigers
2. Joe Mauer, Twins
3. Carlos Santana, Indians
4. Salvador Perez, Royals
5. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox

The AL Central might not be baseball's glamor division, but it may have three of the top five catchers in the game if Mauer bounces back from his injury-plagued campaign. Since we're not certain of his health, I'm going to give top billing to Avila, who had the best hitting numbers of any catcher outside of Mike Napoli and plays solid defense. I wouldn't be surprised if Santana explodes; with his power-and-walks combo, all he has to do is raise his average 30 points and he'll be one of the most valuable players in the game. Considering that his average on balls in play was .263, there is a good chance of that happening. Perez hit .331 in 39 games; OK, he won't do that again, but he doesn't turn 22 until May and puts the ball in play. There's no shame in being fifth in this group but that's where I have to place Pierzynski, who keeps rolling along and is now 36th on the all-time list for games caught.

First base
1. Prince Fielder, Tigers
2. Paul Konerko, White Sox
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals
4. Justin Morneau, Twins
5. Matt LaPorta, Indians

In 2009, when Morneau played 135 games, he hit .274 AVG/.363 OBP/.516 SLG. Even if he replicates that line, he may rank only fourth. Konerko has hit a combined .306 with 70 home runs the past two seasons. He's 104 home runs from 500 but turns 36 in March, so he's probably four seasons away; not sure he'll hang on that long, but who knew he'd be this good at this age. If Hosmer improves his walk rate and defense and Konerko declines, Hosmer could climb past him. If it doesn't happen this year, it will happen next. The most similar batter to him at age 21: Eddie Murray.

Second base
1. Jason Kipnis, Indians
2. Gordon Beckham, White Sox
3. Johnny Giavotella, Royals
4. Alexi Casilla, Twins
5. Ramon Santiago, Tigers

Well, this isn't exactly a Robinson Cano/Dustin Pedroia/Ben Zobrist debate, is it? Kipnis' bat is a sure thing, as evidenced by his excellent play after his call-up (.272 average and .507 slugging in 36 games). His glove was once a question mark but now appears solid enough that he looks like a future All-Star to me. Can anybody explain what has happened to Beckham? He's second mostly by default; he's gone downhill since his superb rookie season in 2009 but is only 25, so there's hope that he'll find those skills again. Giavotella has some potential with the bat (.338/.390/.481 at Triple-A), which is more than you can say for Casilla and Santiago.

Third base
1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2. Mike Moustakas, Royals
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, Indians
4. Danny Valencia, Twins
5. Brent Morel, White Sox

We'll go with the idea that Cabrera is Detroit's starting third baseman, although I predict he'll end up starting more games at designated hitter. Manager Jim Leyland will end up doing a lot of mixing of his lineups, but for this little exercise we have to choose a starter. Moustakas didn't tear up the league as a rookie and I worry about his ability to hit lefties (.191, homerless in 89 at-bats), but he showed more than fellow rookies Chisenhall and Morel. Valencia doesn't get on base enough and he rated poorly on defense in 2011. I hope he's at least good in the clubhouse. Morel was terrible all season and then exploded for eight of his 10 home runs in September and drew 15 walks after drawing just seven the previous five months. Maybe something clicked.

Shortstop
1. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
2. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
3. Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
4. Alcides Escobar, Royals
5. Jamey Carroll, Twins

Peralta had the best 2011 season, but he's a difficult guy to project. He had an .804 OPS in 2008 but dropped to .691 in 2009. He had a .703 OPS in 2010 and then .823 in 2011. I just don't see a repeat season, at the plate or in the field. Cabrera didn't rate well on the defensive metrics, and after a strong start he wore down in the second half. Ramirez has turned into a nice player, with a good glove and some power, and he even draws a few walks now. Escobar is a true magician with the glove. Carroll is actually a useful player who gets on base (.356 career OBP), but he's pushed as an everyday shortstop and he'll be 38. He'll be issued the honorary Nick Punto locker in the Twins' clubhouse.

Left field
1. Alex Gordon, Royals
2. Alejandro De Aza, White Sox
3. Ben Revere, Twins
4. Michael Brantley/Shelley Duncan, Indians
5. Ryan Raburn/Don Kelly, Tigers

I'm not sure what to do here. After Gordon, I just get a headache. We'll pretend to believe in De Aza after his impressive stint in the majors (171 plate appearances, .329/.400/.920). He's hit in Triple-A for three seasons now, and while he's not going to post a .400 OBP again, he should be adequate. Revere is one of the fastest players in the majors, but he's all speed and defense; he hopes to grow up to be Brett Gardner, which isn't a bad thing, but he'll have to learn to get on base at a better clip. Brantley doesn't have one outstanding skill so he'll have to hit better than .266 to be anything more than a fourth outfielder; Duncan provides some right-handed pop as a platoon guy. The Tigers have Delmon Young, but I'll slot him at DH. That leaves supposed lefty masher Raburn and utility man Kelly to soak up at-bats; both had an OBP below .300 in 2011, although Raburn has hit better in the past.

Center field
1. Austin Jackson, Tigers
2. Denard Span, Twins
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Lorenzo Cain, Royals
5. Alex Rios, White Sox

I can't rate Sizemore any higher since he's played just 104 games over the past two seasons, and he hasn't had a big year since 2008. Rios was terrible in '09, OK in '10 and worse than terrible in '11. I'm not betting on him.

Right field
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
2. Brennan Boesch, Tigers
3. Jeff Francoeur, Royals
4. Josh Willingham, Twins
5. Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

Choo would like to forget 2011, but there's no reason he shouldn't bounce back and play like he did in 2009 and 2010, when he was one of the 10 best position players in the AL. I don't expect Francoeur to deliver 71 extra-base hits again, but maybe he'll surprise us. Viciedo is apparently nicknamed "The Tank," which makes me wonder how much ground he can cover. He did improve his walk rate last season in the minors and turns 23 in March, so there's still room for more growth.

Designated hitter
1. Billy Butler, Royals
2. Travis Hafner, Indians
3. Ryan Doumit, Twins
4. Delmon Young, Tigers
5. Adam Dunn, White Sox

Has there been a bigger prospect disappointment than Young in the past decade? I mean, yes, there were complete busts like Brandon Wood and Andy Marte, but those guys had obvious holes in their games, while Young was viewed as a sure thing, a consensus No. 1 overall prospect. But his bat has never lived up to its billing. Other than one decent year in Minnesota, he has low OBPs and he clearly lacked range in the outfield. His career WAR on Baseball-Reference is minus-0.2 (1.6 on FanGraphs), meaning he's been worse than replacement level. He's just not that good, Tigers fans.

No. 1 starter
1. Justin Verlander, Tigers
2. John Danks, White Sox
3. Justin Masterson, Indians
4. Luke Hochevar, Royals
5. Carl Pavano, Twins

Masterson was better than Danks in 2011, and I do believe his improvement was real. He absolutely crushes right-handers -- they slugged an anemic .259 off him. Danks had two bad months but has the longer track record of success. Even in his "off year" he had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Masterson. If you want to argue about Hochevar versus Pavano, be my guest.

No. 2 starter
1. Doug Fister, Tigers
2. Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
3. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
4. Francisco Liriano, Twins
5. Jonathan Sanchez, Royals

Yes, sign me up for the Doug Fister bandwagon club. Jimenez's fastball velocity was down a couple miles per hour last season but the positives are that his strikeout and walk rates were identical to 2010; he'll be better. Floyd isn't flashy but he's now made 30-plus starts four years in a row, and he'll become a very rich man when he becomes a free agent after this season. Sanchez won't have the luxury of pitching in San Francisco (and to eight-man NL lineups).

No. 3 starter
1. Max Scherzer, Tigers
2. Scott Baker, Twins
3. Philip Humber, White Sox
4. Bruce Chen, Royals
5. Josh Tomlin, Indians

I could be underrating Baker, who was excellent last season, but only once in his career has he made 30 starts in a season. Tomlin's fans will disagree with this ranking, but he's a finesse guy who relies on the best control in baseball (21 walks in 26 starts). He's the kind of guy you root for, but the league seemed to figure him out as the season progressed.

No. 4 starter
1. Felipe Paulino, Royals
2. Rick Porcello, Tigers
3. Jake Peavy, White Sox
4. Derek Lowe, Indians
5. Nick Blackburn, Twins

Scouts still love Porcello's arm and I know he's just 23, but he's made 89 big league starts and shown no signs of getting better. His WHIP has increased each season and his strikeout rate remains one of the lowest in baseball. Paulino has an electric arm -- he averaged 95 mph on his fastball -- and is getting better. How could the Rockies give up on him after just 14 innings? How could the Astros trade him for Clint Barmes? Anyway, kudos to the Royals for buying low on the guy who may turn into their best starter. Peavy can't stay healthy. Lowe has led his league in starts three out of the past four seasons, but I'm not sure that's a good thing anymore. Blackburn is a poor man's Lowe, and I don't mean that in a good way.

No. 5 starter
1. Chris Sale, White Sox
2. Jacob Turner, Tigers
3. Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy, Royals
4. Fausto Carmona/David Huff/Jeanmar Gomez, Indians
5. Brian Duensing/Jason Marquis, Twins

Welcome to the AL Central crapshoot. Turner and Sale have the most upside, but one is a rookie and the other is converting from relief. Crow will also be given a shot at the rotation, but his difficulties against left-handed batters (.311 average allowed) don't bode well for that transition. Even if the artist formerly known as Carmona gets a visa, what do you have? A guy with a 5.01 ERA over the past four seasons. Duensing is another typical Twins pitcher, which means he at least throws strikes. His first full season in the rotation didn't go well, so of course the Twins brought in Marquis, yet another guy who doesn't strike anybody out.

Closer
1. Jose Valverde, Tigers
2. Joakim Soria, Royals
3. Matt Thornton, White Sox
4. Chris Perez, Indians
5. Matt Capps, Twins

Four good relievers plus Matt Capps. I do admit I'm a little perplexed by Perez, however. In 2009, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. In 2010, that figure fell to 8.7 but he posted a pretty 1.71 ERA. In 2011, it was all the way down to 5.9, but without much improvement in his control. Perez blew only four saves but he did lose seven games. He survived thanks to a low .240 average on balls in play. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher but didn't serve up many home runs. Bottom line: I'd be nervous.

Bullpen
1. Indians -- Vinnie Pestano, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith, Nick Hagadone
2. Royals -- Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Jose Mijares
3. Tigers -- Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Al Alburquerque
4. White Sox -- Jesse Crain, Jason Frasor, Will Ohman, Addison Reed, Dylan Axelrod
5. Twins -- Glen Perkins, Alex Burnett, Anthony Swarzak, Kyle Waldrop, Lester Oliveros

If you're starting to think I'm not high on the Twins for this season, you would be correct.

Intangibles
1. Royals
2. Indians
3. Tigers
4. White Sox
5. Twins

I like the youthful exuberance of the Royals, plus the likelihood of improvement from the young players and the possibility of some midseason reinforcements from the minors. The depth of the bullpen will help bolster a shaky rotation, and this just feels like an organization that is finally starting to believe in itself. The Indians are riding last year's positive results and enter the season knowing they might get better production from Choo and Sizemore and full seasons from Kipnis and Chisenhall. I'm not knocking the Tigers here, but they do lack depth in the pitching staff and the pressure is on them.

The final tally
1. Tigers, 65 points
2. Royals, 55 points
3. Indians, 54 points
4. White Sox, 46 points
5. Twins, 35 points

No surprise here: The Tigers will be heavy favorites to win the division with a lineup that should score a ton of runs. I don't think it's a lock that they'll win -- Verlander, Avila, Peralta and Valverde will all be hard-pressed to repeat their 2011 campaigns, for example. But the Royals and Indians appear to have too many questions in the rotations, the White Sox have serious lineup issues, and the Twins have a beautiful ballpark to play their games in.

It seems as if many of the division races are already all but over. However, the American League Central is an exception. Going into Friday’s game, the surprising Cleveland Indians trailed Detroit by only 1.5 games, with nine games remaining between the two teams.

Detroit’s rotation appeared to be a strength headed into this year, but outside of Justin Verlander, it has been shaky. Max Scherzer has fine peripherals but also an ERA around 4.30 in an offensively depressed environment. Instead of starting pitching, the Tigers are getting by on their offense. Their team wOBA of .328 is fourth best in the AL, behind only the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers.

The Indians are in a few ways the opposite of that formula. Their .312 wOBA is just below league average, and it hasn’t been helped by injuries. They’ve stayed in the race due to pitching. In the rotation, Justin Masterson has been fantastic, and Josh Tomlin has been solid behind him.

Friday night’s game ended up being a pitchers’ duel. Tomlin held the Tigers hitless through the first two innings, and when a baserunner did reach, he was erased by a fly-out double play. Entering the bottom of the sixth, the Tigers had only two hits. The Indians had three runners in scoring position through their first six innings but could not cash in any of them. The deadlock was finally broken in the bottom of the sixth when Austin Jackson homered with a man on base to give Detroit a 2-0 lead.

Jackson is a funny case. He came to Detroit from the Yankees’ farm system as part of the big trade that put Curtis Granderson in New York and Ian Kennedy in Arizona, and sent Jackson and Scherzer to Detroit. In 2010, Jackson began the year as Detroit’s starting center fielder and leadoff man. He started off blazing hot by hitting .364/.422/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG) in April of that year, buoyed by a BABIP over .500. Although his BABIP never went below .320 for any individual month -- and with a player who has Jackson’s speed, you probably wouldn’t expect it to -- it never reached close to that level again, and his other months were not even close to being as productive as his April.

Still, first impressions stick. Jackson ended up with a solid .333 wOBA while contributing very good defense, and he came in second in the 2010 rookie of the year voting. Scherzer was great for Detroit as well, while Granderson didn’t quite live up to the lofty expectations set for him in New York and Kennedy did not initially stand out in Arizona. In the first go-round, it looked like Detroit was the clear winner of the trade.

Then we got to this season. While Detroit’s offense has been its strength, its leadoff hitter, Jackson, has not been a big part of that attack. This April, his OPS (.509) was lower than his April 2010 BABIP (.530). He has been far better since then, but he still has a wOBA of only .300, good for an 86 wRC+ and a .311 OBP. His strikeout rate is incredibly high. And Scherzer has struggled a bit. Meanwhile Granderson is an MVP candidate, and Kennedy anchors the Arizona rotation, so this year Detroit looks like the loser of that trade.

Many trades take a long time to evaluate. Take Cleveland’s Ubaldo Jimenez trade; maybe he takes the Indians to the World Series, while all the prospects they traded fall apart. Or maybe he gets hurt while the prospects thrive with the Rockies. Maybe it’s not that clear cut, and Ubaldo helps the Indians compete while some of the prospects work out and others don’t. Next year the Tigers/Yankees/Diamondbacks deal might look wildly different.

As for Detroit’s other part of the Jackson trade, Scherzer excelled Friday. Through seven innings, he gave up just six hits and one run, striking out six. Still, it was just 2-1 when Tomlin came back out for the seventh inning, and he got the first two outs with little issue before giving up back-to-back home runs to Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta.

Both Avila and Peralta are massive parts of Detroit’s sneaky-good offense. Avila, coming off a .297 wOBA 2010, has a .382 wOBA this year as the Tigers’ primary catcher, while Peralta’s wOBA is .370 while he plays for them as a shortstop. Although Tomlin gave up only six hits and no walks over 6 2/3 innings, three of those hits left the park and he struck out only two. Joaquin Benoit has had his bad patches in 2011, but he contributed a clean inning before Jose Valverde cashed in the save opportunity to seal the 4-1 win for the Tigers.

The AL Central is in no way decided by one game, but a sweep either way would be a big deal. Jackson and Scherzer provided the difference in a big way Friday night, along with two unexpected cornerstones of the Tigers' offense. They might be in a terrible division with a negative run differential, but with Verlander, they will hardly be a playoff pushover if they get there. Friday night was a big part in inching them just a little closer.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Bexy is a writer at You Can't Predict Baseball and an occasional contributor to It's About the Money. Follow her on Twitter at @rebexarama.

Wednesday night's Tigers lineup, including each player's on-base percentage.

Andy Dirks, .301
Brennan Boesch, .346
Delmon Young, .309
Miguel Cabrera, .427
Victor Martinez, .375
Alex Avila, .391
Jhonny Peralta, .356

You can use whatever metric you prefer -- wOBA or true average or EqA. No matter how you slice it, Detroit's best hitters have been, in order: Cabrera, Avila, Peralta, Martinez, Boesch and then a big drop to Dirks and regular leadoff hitter Austin Jackson. So with several good lineup options, Jim Leyland has instead chosen to bat two players with poor on-base percentages in front of his best hitter. And he continues to bat his second- and third-best hitters sixth and seventh.

As we've mentioned before, batting order isn't that important; but it has some importance, even if it's just 10 runs over the course of a season. Guys lower in the batting order do receive fewer at-bats and that adds up over a season. Take last night: the Tigers lost 6-5, and Peralta received one fewer plate appearance than the inferior Dirks and Young. Would that one plate appearance have made a difference?

Look at where the Tigers rank in the AL in OBP by batting order position:

No. 1: 11th (.306)
No. 2: 10th (.318)
No. 3: 13th (.323)
No. 4: 1st (.426)
No. 5: 6th (.342)
No. 6: 1st (.350)
No. 7: 2nd (.326)
No. 8: 5th (.323)
No. 9: 11th (.278)

The Tigers continue to have some of the worst production in the league from the top three positions. Young, owner of a .323 career OBP, is not the solution. Jackson does not get on base enough to warrant batting leadoff on a playoff contender. Speed is nice, but getting on base is nicer.

Here's my weekly look ahead, because I didn't get to it in Sunday night's Yankees-Red Sox diary.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

Milwaukee at St. Louis, Tuesday through Thursday

Tuesday: Shaun Marcum (10-3, 3.58 ERA) vs. Edwin Jackson (8-8, 4.11)
Wednesday: Randy Wolf (8-8, 3.61) vs. Kyle Lohse (9-7, 3.45)
Thursday: Yovani Gallardo (13-7, 3.56) vs. Jake Westbrook (9-5, 4.83)

Dayn Perry documents the Brewers' road woes in an ESPN Insider story, although they are coming off a three-game sweep in Houston. OK, that doesn't tell us anything. They are 8-6 in their past 14 road games, though.

Jackson will make his third start for the Cardinals. His outing last week against the Brewers was a disaster, as he allowed 14 hits, 10 runs and four home runs in seven innings. Lohse was 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA through May but has won just two of 11 starts since. He has pitched more than six innings just twice and has posted a 5.25 ERA in 60 innings with just 25 strikeouts in that span. Look for another quick hook on Wednesday.

For the Brewers, Gallardo has lowered his ERA from 4.08 to 3.56 in his past four starts, but two of those came against Houston and one against San Francisco. Ryan Braun has been more aggressive at the plate lately, hitting .373 in his past 16 games with eight doubles and four home runs but only two walks. Let's see whether the Cardinals attack him and whether he'll chase pitches out of the strike zone.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Wednesday: Rick Porcello vs. Ubaldo Jimenez, Detroit at Cleveland (Wednesday)

It's not a battle of Cy Young contenders but an interesting showdown in the AL Central. The Indians are four games back of the Tigers and could use a sweep of their three-game series in Cleveland. Unfortunately, they'll face Justin Verlander on Thursday, putting pressure on Jimenez and Justin Masterson to pitch well. Porcello has been a little better of late, as he's allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts, although they've been more of the quality start-variety (six innings, three runs) and include several starts against weak offenses -- two against Kansas City and one each against Oakland, San Francisco, Minnesota and the Angels. Jimenez allowed five runs in five innings in his first start for Cleveland against the Rangers.

THREE SWINGS

1. Tim Lincecum stopped the Phillies' nine-game win streak on Sunday, but what a roll the Phillies have been on. With a 74-40 record, they're on pace for 105 wins, and ESPN Stats & Info reports that AccuScore's simulation of 10,000 seasons gives the Phillies a 22 percent chance of winning 108 games. Why is that significant? Only two NL teams have won 108 games since 1910 -- the legendary 1975 Cincinnati Reds and almost-as-legendary 1986 New York Mets, both of whom won 108. With a 3.06 team ERA, the Phillies have a shot to become the first team since the 1989 Dodgers to finish under 3.00. We'll wait a few weeks before comparing the Phillies to other great clubs, but it's worth noting that the '86 Mets finished first in the NL in runs and second in runs allowed; the '75 Reds were first in runs and third in runs allowed. The Phillies are first in runs allowed but seventh in runs scored.

2. It's great to see Stephen Strasburg back in action in a rehab start in Class A. How about this 2013 lineup for the Nationals?

2B Anthony Rendon
RF Jayson Werth
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Prince Fielder
LF Mike Morse
CF Bryce Harper
SS Danny Espinosa
C Wilson Ramos

Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Brad Peacock (124 IP, 81 H, 38 BB, 152 SO in Double-A/Triple-A this year), and Veteran Free Agent To Be Named.

OK, I stretched all the position players defensively, but Espinosa should be able to handle shortstop without a hitch (he played there in the minors), and Harper has the speed and tools to handle center field. Prince Fielder? Nats fans can dream, right?

3. Since 1990, only 21 starting pitchers have allowed an on-base percentage of .260 or less. But four pitchers are doing it this season: Justin Verlander (.233), Jered Weaver (.247), Cole Hamels (.253) and Dan Haren (.255). Verlander's total would be the third-best since '90, trailing only Pedro Martinez in 2000 (.213) and Greg Maddux in 1995 (.224). Martinez owns five of the 21 seasons on the list, Maddux four. Johan Santana with three and Curt Schilling with two also appear multiple times.

RANT OF THE WEEK

I'm stealing this great note from our Stats & Information department, which compares Asdrubal Cabrera to Jhonny Peralta:

Cabrera: .289, .832 OPS, plus+1 defensive runs saved, 3.9 WAR (FanGraphs)
Peralta: .314, .873 OPS, minus-10 defensive runs saved, 3.8 WAR (FanGraphs)

Peralta has received about zero media attention for his great year, especially in comparison to Cabrera. Although Cabrera routinely shows up on Web Gems highlights, his overall defense is more league-average than spectacular. Peralta's stick has been slightly more valuable, however, with a .314/.357/.516 line compared to Cabrera's .289/.344/.488. The Tigers are in first place, and Verlander and Miguel Cabrera aren't the only reasons why.

Oh, and the best shortstop in the American League might actually be Yunel Escobar.

An impartial observer might take a snapshot of the American League Central and conclude that the race is an exercise in wheel-spinning. But that’s not entirely correct: The four teams at the top just have no idea if they’re coming or going.

The Twins were treated to a combination wedgie and noogie in a 20-6 loss to Texas on Monday and are now 47-55. But they seem strangely resistant to entertaining offers for free agent-to-be Michael Cuddyer, a solid righty bat, terrific clubhouse guy and crafty situational reliever in blowouts who might net them a decent prospect haul in return. It’s nice to be loyal and cling to hope based on some recent fast finishes, but you have to wonder if Twins general manager Bill Smith is missing an opportunity to capitalize on a valuable asset here.

The Indians, who beat the Angels 3-2 on a walk-off single by rookie second baseman Jason Kipnis, have an AL Central-best run differential of plus-2. They began the season at 30-15, but injuries to Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore and an overall lack of lineup depth have stalled their momentum and left fans wondering when the magic ends and the reality check begins. Meanwhile, GM Chris Antonetti continues to look for a bat on a limited budget.

The White Sox, the American League’s answer to the enigmatic Reds, are always a stinker away from an Ozzie Guillen expletive-fest. And general manager Kenny Williams, a guy who lives to make waves at the trade deadline, seems genuinely conflicted. Amid rumors that he’s talking to St. Louis about a deal for young outfielder Colby Rasmus, Williams appeared on ESPN Radio in Chicago and said he might “turn over the entire roster’’ if the White Sox don’t make a move here shortly.

That leaves us with the division leaders in Detroit, where Justin Verlander might or might not have enough help in the rotation to get the Tigers to the postseason, and GM David Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland might or might not be on the spot with owner Mike Illitch in the final year of their contracts.

It was only fitting that when the Tigers and White Sox met in a big AL Central showdown Monday night at U.S. Celluar Field, all the division’s warts were on display. Between home runs by Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski, the Chicago crowd was treated to botched pop flies, a muffed pickoff, a near-collision between Juan Pierre and Alex Rios in the outfield and a wild pitch that careened off Pierzynski’s shinguard and was turned into an out at second base by reliever Jesse Crain.

The Tigers ran out four pitchers -- Duane Below, Chance Ruffin, Charlie Furbush and David Purcey -- with a combined 215 2/3 innings in the big leagues. The vast majority of those belong to Purcey. And White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, miracle of miracles, actually issued a leadoff walk in the fifth inning.

Is this any way to run a pennant race?

Take an informal survey of people in baseball front offices, and their predictions for the division generally fall along the same lines. Just about everyone favors Chicago’s pitching staff, but the White Sox are going to have a hard time winning if Adam Dunn (.159 batting average) and Rios (.301 slugging percentage, 23 RBIs) continue to look this pathetic at the plate. If Dunn plans to hit .200 this season, he better have some Ted Williams-caliber mashing in store for August and September.

Offensively, the Tigers win the Best in Show award. Detroit ranks fifth in the league in runs scored, and Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Alex Avila, Brennan Boesch and Victor Martinez all have an OPS north of .800.

The Tigers have been trolling for a front-end starter. But with Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields pretty much un-acquirable, they might have to stand pat or settle for a back-end guy to complement their top four of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Brad Penny.

It could be worse: Scherzer, although up-and-down this season, has generated a swing-and-miss percentage of 9.3 -- better than Matt Cain, Jered Weaver and David Price. And Porcello has quietly gone 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA in July. He’s still 22 years old, remember?

In a race this chaotic, the schedule can make a difference. While the Tigers are finished playing Boston and New York this season, the White Sox welcome the Red Sox and Yankees to Chicago for seven games starting Wednesday. As for the feisty Indians, they have 10 games against Boston, Texas and Detroit in early August. That’s their sink-or-swim stretch.

“It’s a weak division,’’ said a National League personnel man, “but I’ve liked the Tigers all year. Never underestimate a team with a good offense and an ace [starter]. You just don’t have long losing streaks.’’

And who cares about labels? Dunn can’t step to the plate these days without another out-of-town broadcaster referring to him as “the struggling Adam Dunn.’’ But as he told Yahoo! Sports in a recent interview, he still enjoys playing, “Even though I suck.’’

Say this for the Big Donkey: He’s come to the right place.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

With trade rumors hitting us in full force as the deadline approaches, let's take a look back at some of what happened at the 2010 trade deadline and see how many of those players are making an impact for their new teams.

Cliff Lee traded to the Rangers; Mariners acquired Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Matthew Lawson and Josh Lueke
Despite a solid BB/K rate, Smoak continues to struggle with consistency at the big league level. He's still only 24, so there is time for him to improve, but he's not the instant impact bat that the Mariners were hoping for. Both Beavan and Lueke have pitched in spots for the Mariners this season. The Rangers rode Lee’s contributions to the World Series and have since moved on from Smoak seamlessly, relying instead on the likes of postseason hero Mitch Moreland, Michael Young and Mike Napoli.

Dan Haren traded to the Angels; Diamondbacks received Joe Saunders, Tyler Skaggs, Patrick Corbin and Rafael Rodriguez
Haren has thrived for the Angels this season, and Saunders has held his own with the surprise contenders in Arizona. However, the big score for the D-Back may not arrive until late next season or 2013, as Skaggs has continued to impress all those who have seen him pitch. Recently, he earned a promotion to Double-A after posting a 3.22 ERA, 2.65 FIP and 3.7 K/BB rate at High-A Visalia in the hitter-friendly California League. Corbin has had his struggles at Double-A, but he has posted an impressive 4.5 K/BB rate and should see the big leagues one day.

Edwin Jackson traded to the White Sox; Diamondbacks received Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg
This move was sort of a head-scratcher at the time, and the way Hudson has pitched for the D’backs ever since confirms that confusion. The Snakes have Hudson under team control through 2016 while Jackson will hit the free-agent market this winter.

Roy Oswalt traded to the Phillies; Astros acquired J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar Oswalt pitched brilliantly for the Phils in the 2010 postseason. However, career-long back problems may have finally caught up to him. On the Astros' side, Happ was plugged right into the rotation, but his struggles with command and allowing the long ball have led to an ERA nearing six. Gose never played a game in the Astros' system as he was flipped to the Blue Jays for first baseman Brett Wallace; the 24-year-old Wallace has been unimpressive in his young major league career, though he does sport an above-average OBP. Villar continues to struggle with strikeouts in the minor leagues.

Lance Berkman traded to the Yankees; Astros received Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes
While Berkman is in the midst of a late-career renaissance with the Cardinals, Melancon has taken over as the Astros' closer with a 2.91 ERA, 3.33 FIP and ground-ball rate of 60 percent. Jimmy Paredes is now in Double-A and continues to steal bases, but he also continues to struggle with his lack of plate discipline.

Matt Capps traded to the Twins; Nationals received Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa
Capps pitched well for the Twins down the stretch in 2010, but his huge regression in strikeout rate has hurt him big-time this season. In the meantime, despite some ups and downs in his first full big-league season, Ramos has established himself as the Nationals' catcher of the now and the immediate future.

Jhonny Peralta traded to the Tigers; Indians received Giovanni Soto
Peralta re-signed with the Tigers last offseason and has been worth every penny of the $5.25M he is making this season. Over the past two seasons, Peralta has improved his contact rate, which has helped to lower his strikeout rate. Meanwhile, the 20-year-old Soto continues to show good strikeout ability at the lower minor-league levels of the Indians' organization.

Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot traded to the Dodgers; Cubs received Blake DeWitt, Brett Wallach and Kyle Smit
Lilly pitched well for the Dodgers down the stretch in 2010, but his issues with the gopher-ball have hurt him this season. With the Dodger's financial situation in shambles, the three-year $33 million deal Lilly signed last offseason only makes things worse. Overall, this deal has helped no one, though the Dodgers did at least acquire league-average reliever Blake Hawksworth in exchange for Theriot this past offseason.

Octavio Dotel traded to the Dodgers; Pirates acquired James McDonald and Andrew Lambo
After being acquired by Los Angeles, Dotel appeared in 19 games, allowed seven earned runs and was then traded to the Rockies in September. The Pirates landed the high-upside, inconsistent McDonald, who has been once again inconsistent. However, his 4.15 ERA (4.57 FIP) have at least contributed as a back-end rotation piece to the surprising Pirates. Lambo was once a top-end prospect with the Dodgers, but his prospect status is all but gone now. He's hitting .206/.278/.326 between Double- and Triple-A this season.

Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel traded to the Braves; Royals received Tim Collins, Jesse Chavez and Gregor Blanco
Both Farnsworth and Ankiel moved on from the Braves in the offseason, and Blanco was traded to the Nationals this past May. Collins made the Royals out of spring training and has continued to prove that he can miss bats (24.3 percent whiff rate), but his control has really tailed off at the big-league level. Collins is only 21 years old, so his future may still be as a consistent late-inning reliever someday.

Charlie Saponara writes for SweetSpot blog, "Fire Brand of the AL." You can find all of his writing adventures by following on Twitter.

Sixty-six All-Stars were announced Sunday and somehow they still messed it up. Here are my five biggest All-Star snubs.

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates. I figured he was a lock for the team, but Bruce Bochy was put into a bit of a bind when the players voted in Jay Bruce as one of the three outfield reserves in the NL (along with Hunter Pence and Matt Holliday). Justin Upton was added as the deserving lone representative of the Diamondbacks, but Bochy selected Carlos Beltran over McCutchen, even though McCutchen has a higher average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, more steals and plays a superior center field as opposed to a mediocre right field. I can only guess Bochy viewed this as an opportunity to talk with Beltran and persuade him to drop his no-trade clause if the Giants attempt to trade for him.

(And, no, Bruce is not better than McCutchen. Bruce has more home runs, but is hitting .230 with a .314 OBP on the road.)

2. CC Sabathia, P, Yankees. He's scheduled to start the Sunday before the All-Star Game, so would have been replaced on the roster anyway, but he deserved the honor of making the squad. Manager Ron Washington could have resolved the CC situation in one of two easy ways: Pick him over Tigers closer Jose Valverde (very mediocre numbers for a closer) or Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson (whom I think is a deserving All-Star).

3. Tommy Hanson, P, Braves. Bochy had four roster spots for pitchers and picked Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain (no issues there, even if they are his own guys), Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard (the lone Nats rep and having a dominating year in middle relief) and ... Ryan Vogelsong, a journeyman right-hander who had been out of the majors for four seasons. Look, Vogelsong's story is one of the best of the season. His numbers are excellent (6-1, 2.09), but you can't pick Lincecum and Cain and a guy who has had 12 good starts with no previous track record of success. Bochy said Vogelsong will be his emergency long man in case the game goes extra innings, so he's unlikely to get into the game, but it was still an odd selection over Hanson, Ian Kennedy, Jhoulys Chacin or Shaun Marcum.

4. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers. The fans did a terrific job voting in the starters this season. Really, the only debatable selection was Derek Jeter, and can you really fault the fans for voting in one of the greatest players of all time over a group of shortstops who, while having excellent seasons, don't have a long track record of excellence? Trouble is, there was no way to squeeze Peralta on the roster. With two DHs, it's hard for Washington to slot deserving bench players, since he had to pick Michael Cuddyer and Matt Wieters to represent the Twins and Orioles.

5. Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies. I wrote the other day that it would be difficult to find room for him on the roster, and since I slot him slightly behind McCutchen in the pecking order, I'm having trouble squeezing him on the roster. If you give the Beltran slot to McCutchen, where does Victorino fit? Gaby Sanchez is the lone Marlins rep, but you could give his slot to Anibal Sanchez (replacing Vogelsong or Cain) and find room for Victorino.

Anyway, both managers did about as well as they could. Bochy made one major gaffe in logic (Beltran over McCutchen) while Washington had better options than Jose Valverde. Considering the managers got hamstrung by the players voting in Russell Martin, Michael Young, Carlos Quentin and Bruce, it makes it tough to fill out the roster.

(FYI, five pitchers are scheduled to start next Sunday and will have to be replaced by rule: Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, James Shields, Cole Hamels and Cain.)

Finally, my nominees for the five players in each league for the "extra man" vote:

American League: CC Sabathia, P, Yankees; Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers; Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox; Ben Zobrist, 2B, Rays; Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox.

National League: Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates; Tommy Hanson, P, Braves; Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies; Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals; Ian Kennedy, P, Diamondbacks.

P.S.: Can we get rid of the rule that says the players have to vote in three relievers? Chris Perez? Brandon League? Ugh.

Update: The players voted in Michael Young as the BACKUP designated hitter. Yes, somebody apparently believes it's necessary to have two DHs on the AL roster by rule, so my mistake in originally blaming Ron Washington for that selection. (Sorry, Ron.) Actually, Washington did basically what he could, especially since he knew CC was pitching Sunday anyway, so he wanted to make sure he got C.J. Wilson and David Price on the team. Really, this whole system is a joke. You can't have a game that MATTERS, and yet have a system in selecting rosters that's completely absurd. In the end, the only guy in my book with an All-Star beef worth caring about is Andrew McCutchen, who wasn't even named as one of the "Final Vote" candidates in the NL.

The All-Star rosters will be announced Sunday, and here are five guys I'd like to see make the All-Star Game, but might get left out.

Danny Espinosa, 2B, Nationals: Rickie Weeks and Brandon Phillips are neck-and-neck in the fan voting and the other will undoubtedly be named as the backup. Weeks is the deserving starter, but Espinosa has a strong argument over Phillips. He's only hitting .239, but his overall line of .239/.323/.468 with 15 home runs makes him a better offensive player than Phillips (.298/.351/.416, six home runs), especially when you factor in Phillips' home park. The defensive metrics back up Espinosa's growing reputation as a standout defender as well. All three are deserving All-Stars -- FanGraphs ranks all three in the top 15 among NL position players in WAR (wins above replacement), but there might not be room for three second basemen, unless Espinosa gets the nods as the Nationals' rep (more likely to be closer Drew Storen).

Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies: Ryan Braun, Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday are leading the fan vote. Matt Kemp and Andrew McCutchen are automatics. Hunter Pence (or maybe Michael Bourn) makes it as the Astros' lone representative. Justin Upton is probably the most deserving Diamondbacks player, although catcher Miguel Montero and starter Ian Kennedy have good cases. The NL had four reserve outfielders a year ago (plus Jason Heyward, who was injured at the time), so Victorino could get squeezed even though he's fourth in FanGraphs' WAR among NL position players, behind only Jose Reyes, Kemp and McCutchen.

Ben Zobrist, 2B, Rays: Robinson Cano has a large lead in the fan vote, even though he ranks just fifth among AL second basemen in WAR. Dustin Pedroia is the likely backup, likely leaving Zobrist's all-around brilliance -- .268/.347/.475, 52 runs, nine home runs, superb defense -- watching from home. Howie Kendrick is another second baseman deserving of a short at a crowded position. Zobrist's best chance is if Ron Washington likes his ability to play multiple positions, but with James Shields an All-Star lock (and David Price, Evan Longoria and Matt Joyce possibilities), the Rays have other strong candidates.

Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners: Ichiro Suzuki has been an All-Star all 10 of his previous major league seasons, but he's way back in the fan voting this year and his numbers don't come close to warranting a selection. But the Mariners need a rep. Michael Pineda has a better ERA than Hernandez (2.65 to 3.19), and might get the nod because of that. But Hernandez should be the All-Star, not a rookie who has had three good months. (Hernandez also drew the short straw last year; somehow, 17 different AL pitchers made the squad or were named as replacements, but the eventual Cy Young winner wasn't one of them. Jose Valverde, Phil Hughes, Matt Thornton, Fausto Carmona, Andrew Bailey and Andy Pettitte, however, were All-Stars.) Even if you think Felix is a lock, so many AL starters are having good seasons that a few will get shut out (C.J. Wilson? Dan Haren? Price?). In fact, Mariano Rivera is really the only AL reliever deserving of a selection. The AL roster should be 12 starters and Rivera, but we'll still see four or five relievers.

Jhonny Peralta, SS, Tigers: Derek Jeter will win the fan vote and Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera is the likely backup. That might not leave room for Peralta -- .310/.358/.527, 12 home runs, 46 RBI -- especially with Miguel Cabrera and catcher Alex Avila likely picks from the Tigers. White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez is another strong candidate who might get squeezed. And that doesn't even factor in if Washington picks his own guy, Elvis Andrus.

Follow David on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Sabermetricians are not big fans of Brennan Boesch, with a full host of reasons. He doesn't walk enough. He doesn't have enough power for a corner outfielder. He's not a very good defensive player. He doesn't exactly run like Austin Jackson. He just had a couple hot months in 2010. He's got a weird reverse platoon split that he won't be able to maintain.

Maybe they're right, but on the other hand ... well, maybe Brennan Boesch isn't so bad. After wrapping a two-run homer around the foul pole in Thursday's 4-1 victory over Seattle, Boesch is hitting .281 with eight home runs on the year. He's drawing enough walks and hitting for enough power to produce an .805 OPS, a figure that may not have had you writing epic poems about Boesch a decade ago but is good enough for 24th in the American League. He's eighth in the league in runs and tied for 18th in RBIs. In 2011 you can win division titles with players like Brennan Boesch.

Which gets us to our issue of the night. The Tigers have the best pitcher in the AL Central. They have the best hitter in the AL Central. Do they have the best team?

With Justin Verlander striking out a season-high 10 (yes, Thursday was his first double-digit strikeout game), the Tigers won for the ninth time in 11 games. They kind of snuck up on us, and now they're just one game behind Cleveland, which isn't simply looking at Detroit in its rear-view mirror but seeing the Tigers race by at 85 mph.

The Tigers scored barely four runs per game in April, but several guys had extremely slow starts: Magglio Ordonez hit .169, Jackson .178 and Brandon Inge .198. Will Rhymes won the second-base job out of spring training but hit .211 with no power to lose the job.

Now the Tigers are starting to mash. Miguel Cabrera and the Brewers' Ryan Braun are the only two players in the majors with at least 45 runs and 45 RBIs. Catcher Alex Avila hit two triples -- yes, two -- deep into the right-center gap on Thursday, and is now hitting .297/.359/.564 and looking more legit by the day. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta is having his best season in years, hitting .313 with eight homers. Victor Martinez is hitting better than .300.

But Boesch is a potentially critical component. If he's the guy who is going to hit in front of Cabrera in Jim Leyland's lineups, then Boesch has to produce -- he's going to get pitches to hit and Miggy needs guys on base to drive in. Boesch is hot right now, hitting .400 in June to raise his average from .254 to. 280. He hit a long two-run homer off Edwin Jackson last weekend in a 4-2 win over the White Sox, went 5-for-6 with two homers Monday in Texas, and then homered again on Thursday against Seattle. If he keeps producing, that gives the Tigers five big threats in the lineup, the kind of offensive depth that is matched by just the Red Sox and Yankees in the AL. (I don't put that Rangers up there, as many of their offensive totals are park inflated.)

For the Tigers, I see five keys:

1. Lineup selection. Jackson's recent streak has raised his average to .243, but his OBP remains a substandard .302. Leyland seems determined to turn Jackson into a leadoff hitter, but I'm not sure it's in the cards. He strikes out way too much (73 times in 62 games) and doesn't draw many walks. Thursday, Leyland had Peralta and Avila buried in the seventh and eighth spots in the order, while hitting Jackson leadoff and Don Kelly (.303 OBP) second, which makes no sense. It's not 1988 anymore; you don't have two fast, scrappy guys who don't get on base batting one and two in the order. The Tigers lack a classic leadoff hitter, and Jackson is really the speed on the team, but why hit these two guys in front of Cabrera? Why not go Peralta, Boesch, Cabrera, Martinez and Avila, and bunch your best hitters together?
2. The return of Magglio Ordonez. Does he have anything left? And if he does, where does he play? With Avila mashing, Martinez has basically become the team's everyday DH. Considering Mags plays right field about as well as Al Kaline -- and I mean the statue outside the ballpark -- he may not have a job beyond platooning in the outfield with Andy Dirks.
3. What's on second? Five guys have played there so far. Ryan Raburn started Thursday, but after a couple good years at the plate, he's lost all semblance of the strike zone with a 63/8 K/BB ratio. Ramon Santiago offers a better glove; if Raburn doesn't start hitting soon, Santiago may become the regular by default.
4. How good is the bullpen? Jose Valverde comes in with his goggles, shaggy goatee, meat-and-potatoes girth and two-step antics on the mound, but he usually gets the job done as the closer. But the rest of the pen is thin. High-priced setup man Joaquin Benoit has been better of late but remains a question. Rookie Al Alburquerque has 35 strikeouts in 19 2/3 IP but a minor league track record that suggests he won't be able to sustain this. Outside of that, they'll need some of these rookie call-ups, such as Adam Wilk and Charlie Furbush, to surprise and pitch.
5. Justin Verlander is great, but how good is the rest of the rotation? The Tigers entered Thursday eighth in the AL in ERA among starters, seventh in innings and tied for sixth in quality starts. In other words, decidedly middle of the pack.

In the AL Central that may be enough to win. And if Brennan Boesch continues to defy the skeptics, the Tigers may be the team to beat in the division.

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