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To much fanfare and with exceedingly high expectations, the Washington Nationals called up Bryce Harper over the weekend. He went 2-for-6 with a double, a walk, a strikeout and a sac fly, although the Nationals lost both games. In his first game, he hustled to first base on a comebacker to the mound in his first at-bat, doubled and flipped his helmet in the seventh inning, unleashed a great throw from left field, put the Nationals ahead with a sacrifice fly in the ninth, and made a nice catch while crashing into the wall in center field in his second game.

Nothing wrong with that start, which began with Dodgers fans giving him a loud chorus of boos. Already the villain, it seems, which is certainly unfair to a 19-year-old kid. While the Nationals were desperate for some offense -- running out past-their-prime veterans like Xavier Nady and Mark DeRosa probably wasn't a good plan to begin with -- a rash of injuries forced the front office to call up Harper sooner than they probably wanted. As former Mets general manager Jim Duquette said on MLB Network Radio, you want guys to earn their promotion. Harper has just 534 plate appearances in the minor leagues, which isn't necessarily the issue; Ken Griffey Jr. had just 552 when he debuted with the Mariners at 19. The issue is Harper hasn't hit much in his limited exposure above Class A, especially against left-handers. The fear, it can be argued, is that if he struggles in the major leagues, it will harm his development.

I don't see it. If the kid is this good, I don't see a bad stretch doing irreparable harm to his long-term future. If Harper doesn't turn into a big star, it won't be because he was called up too soon.

An obvious comparison is Alex Rodriguez. He was first called up in July of 1994, a few weeks before his 19th birthday. A-Rod played 17 games, had 59 plate appearances, hit .204 and struck out 20 times while drawing just three walks. The next season, he spent more time in the majors and hit .232/.264/.408 with an awful 42/6 strikeout/walk ratio. Despite those two periods where major league pitchers destroyed him, his confidence and talent won out. In 1996, still just 20 years old at the start of the season, Rodriguez hit .358 with 36 home runs.

Now, it's unfair to compare Harper to Rodriguez, of course. So here's another one: Jim Thome had just turned 21 when called up in 1991. He hit .255/.298/.367 with one home run in 27 games that September. He struggled again the next year, hitting .205 with two home runs in 131 plate appearances. He ended up spending most of 1993 in the minors as well. He turned out OK.

It's probably unfair to even compare Harper to Thome, only one of the best power/on-base machines in the game's history. Harper is a better athlete than Thome, but his raw power is similar. OK, how about Justin Upton? He was still 19 when he made his debut in 2007. He hit .221/.283/.364 with 11 walks and 37 strikeouts in 152 plate appearances that season. It would seem to me that Upton is a good comp, a guy who showed steady development and turned into an MVP candidate in his age-23 season.

There are hopes that Harper will be even better than that. His destiny remains unknown. I just don't believe a few bad weeks -- if that's what happens -- will affect his ultimate path.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

I can't wait for the season to get going. You can't wait. Last October was the best we've had in years, and the offseason only fueled our baseball fever. Spring training is mercifully over. Let the games begin. Here are 100 reasons I'm pumped for the next seven months.

1. Albert Pujols in Anaheim. They call him The Machine, but Pujols had a few rusty bolts in 2011. He hit under .300 for the first time, his walk rate was down, and his extra-base-hit percentage was down. After a slow start through May (.267, nine home runs), he did hit much better after returning from his fractured forearm. He moves to a tougher division and will have to face the Rangers, A's and Mariners 19 times each -- with cavernous parks in Oakland and Seattle -- rather than the Cubs, Pirates and Astros. The pressure is on. The spotlight is bright. But machines are immune to all that, right?

2. Jim Thome's pursuit of a World Series title. He'll turn 42 in August and will play some first base until Ryan Howard returns. That's a pretty good story in itself (he hasn't played on the field since appearing in one game at first in 2008), but he's played in nine postseasons and reached two World Series without winning it all.

3. Jamie Moyer is back in the majors at age 49 and can surpass Jack Quinn as the oldest pitcher to win a game. Moyer's arsenal these days: an 80 mph fastball, a 70 mph changeup, a 65 mph curveball, a 55 mph slowball, a 20 mph Bugs Bunny ball and an 8 mph retirement community ball that bends time.

4. Justin Verlander's encore performance. Verlander threw 3,941 pitches in the regular season, the most since Livan Hernandez's 4,007 in 2005. Verlander added 360 more in the postseason. It's not necessarily a big deal -- Verlander's 2009 total is the third-highest since 2005 -- but you do wonder whether Jim Leyland will back off a little.

5. Roy Halladay's paintbrush.

6. Yu Darvish.

7. Yu Darvish's hair. Straight from Supercuts.

8. Adam Wainwright's return to the Cardinals' rotation. He was third in the 2009 NL Cy Young vote and second in 2010. He looked good this spring, pitching 18 2/3 innings and allowing just 11 hits. The strikeout rate wasn't great -- just nine K's -- but signs are positive a year after Tommy John surgery.

9. A full season of Stephen Strasburg, who was electric in his own return in September from TJ surgery in September 2010 -- his fastball averaged 95.8 mph, below the 97.3 he averaged in 2010 but still with enough velocity that it would have ranked No. 1 among starting pitchers. The big question for his season: How much the Nationals will limit his innings?

10. Jose Canseco's tweets.

11. Clayton Kershaw's slider. His fastball isn't too shabby, either. By the way, here's what Kershaw does in the offseason to stay in shape and get ready for the season.

12. Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw: three of the amazing generation of pitchers we get to enjoy. Maybe Darvish and Strasburg will join them. In 2011, 14 pitchers pitched at least 200 innings with an ERA of 3.00 or less. The last time we had even 10 such pitchers in one season was 1997, with 11. The last season with more than 14 was 1992, with 20. Yes, steroids are a small part of that. A small part. The best pitchers today are throwing harder and with meaner breaking stuff than we've ever seen. Guys like Kershaw and Halladay are relentless in their workout routines. It's not a lot of fun to be a hitter these days.

13. Well, Jose Bautista has a lot of fun.

14. A new generation of young hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Starlin Castro and Jesus Montero. All will play their age-22 seasons in 2012.

15. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.

16. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

17. Will Cabrera win his first MVP award? He's finished fifth in the voting three times, fourth once and second once. Two things that could prevent him from winning:

A. Austin Jackson's on-base percentage. Cabrera hit .388 with runners in scoring position in 2011 but drove in "just" 105 runs.
B. Fielder. Batting behind Cabrera and his .400-plus OBP will give Fielder more RBI opportunities. If he ends up driving in 15 to 20 more runs than Cabrera, they could split votes.

Five other all-time greats who have never won an MVP award: Derek Jeter, Eddie Murray, Mike Piazza, Al Kaline, Manny Ramirez.

18. Cabrera playing third base. With Fielder at first base, the Tigers could have the worst first baseman and worst third baseman in baseball. (And, please, don't defend Fielder's defensive prowess at first base. He's better than Adam Dunn, I suppose ... but Dunn is a DH.)

19. Defensive runs saved!

Your leaders by position in 2011:

C -- Matt Wieters
1B -- Adrian Gonzalez
2B -- Ben Zobrist
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Brendan Ryan
LF -- Brett Gardner
CF -- Austin Jackson
RF -- Jason Heyward

20. The Sandman.

21. The fans in Milwaukee. The Brewers drew a franchise-record 3.071 million fans in 2011. Depressed over losing Fielder? Hardly. They'll surpass that in 2012.

(Read full post)

Now that we’re waiting for these last few days to pass before pitchers and catchers report, it’s worth remembering that beyond the usual camp fights and reps as players get into regular-season shape, we’ll also see a few players challenged as they never have been: challenged to change positions.

Every club has different motivations for attempting this sort of thing: immediate need, making room for a major free agent or fulfilling a long-term plan for a younger player. What are the 10 most interesting attempted position switches to watch this spring?

1. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, from 1B to 3B: Cabrera’s bulk might seem like a major stumbling block to his making a jump to the hot corner now that Prince Fielder is manning first base. Although Cabrera started at the hot corner for the Marlins, he was a regular there in only two full seasons, 2006 and 2007; Baseball Info Solutions graded his defense 27 runs below average across those two seasons.

Tigers skipper Jim Leyland has plenty of experience with making the best of a bad situation at the hot corner. He tolerated Bobby Bonilla’s fielding at third base for the ’97 Marlins despite long exposure to Bonilla’s bad hands and scattershot arm as a Pirate back in the ’80s, for example. But fundamentally, can Cabrera do it? That seems like a stretch, but over a full season, he might not have to. The Tigers can rotate him or Fielder to DH now and again, and Cabrera also has plenty of experience in left field -- another position where the Tigers don’t have to play any one guy regularly.

With Leyland in the dugout, it’s worth keeping in mind that no manager in baseball today is more aggressive when it comes to using defensive replacements -- even if Cabrera acquits himself better than expected, don’t be surprised if Brandon Inge keeps busy as a frequently used substitute.

2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins, from SS to 3B: Another move made to make room for a free agent. The immediate expectation is that an athletic shortstop like HanRam should be more than capable of jumping to third base. Shortstop is supposed to be harder, after all, so the expectation is that Ramirez might go from a questionable glove at short to a defensive asset at third.

However, it’s worth remembering that not all of these moves turn out well. As Michael Humphreys documents in his excellent "Wizardry: Baseball’s All-Time Greatest Fielders Revealed," Chipper Jones was an example of a former shortstop with tremendous athletic ability moved to third, only to deliver initially awful results in his first several seasons. Humphreys goes on to point out that Alex Rodriguez hasn’t become a great or even a good third baseman since starting out as a competent shortstop, and if your memory goes back to the ’70s and ’80s, neither did Toby Harrah.

So Ramirez’s value at third base is no sure thing, and how well he adapts will be a matter of hard work in camp.

3. Neftali Feliz, Rangers, from closer to starter: We’ve been through this before, as Feliz was prepped to start for the Rangers last spring only to wind up back in the bullpen. This time around, with veteran closer Joe Nathan in the fold, the transition should stick. Feliz has consulted with Pedro Martinez on the nature of the challenge of moving to the rotation -- a move Pedro had to make when the Dodgers distrusted his ability to withstand the workload of starting.

In Feliz’s case -- unlike Pedro’s -- his size or stature has never been a stumbling block, and he’s always had the broad assortment of plus stuff you’d associate with a top starter. Between the plus changeup he added in 2008 and the power breaking stuff he hasn’t had to use as often out of the 'pen, he’ll do more than keep people guessing. Because he’ll be entering his age-24 season, the Rangers will be sure to monitor his workload, but every other light is green on this project.

4. Daniel Bard, Red Sox, from reliever to starter: If Feliz’s transition is part of a grand design, Bard’s seems more a matter of immediate need. However, it’s worth remembering that Bard started out as a starting pitcher prospect and a first-round selection. He didn’t really turn the corner with the slider that now complements his 97 mph fastball until he moved to the ’pen in the minors. Will he be able to throw it as effectively a second or third time through a big league lineup? His changeup might wind up becoming the key off-speed pitch in his arsenal that gets him all the way through 90-100 pitches and into the sixth inning.

5. Mark Trumbo, Angels, from 1B to 3B: This hasn’t gotten nearly the same kind of attention that Cabrera’s has in even less time, but that’s because Trumbo’s success is not a critical component to the Angels’ plans the way Cabrera’s is to the Tigers. General manager Jerry Dipoto is adamant that, after he recovers from a stress fracture in his foot, Trumbo’s move off first base to make way for Albert Pujols won’t be to one position but to a superutility role, playing all four corners and DH as Mike Scioscia tries to find ways to squeeze Bobby Abreu, Vernon Wells, Kendrys Morales and Trumbo into the lineup when there are just two lineup slots they can have to themselves.

Even if Trumbo’s healthy, there’s the question of whether he can really make the jump to third. He’s never played there in the minors, let alone the majors, and he was better known as a top pitcher in high school when the Angels drafted him. As experiments go, this seems desperate and might not survive to see the light of Opening Day.

6. Chris Sale, White Sox, from reliever to starter: This move is more like Feliz’s shift to the rotation than Bard’s, because it was anticipated from the day the White Sox drafted him in 2010 that he had the stuff to eventually start. But his arm was good enough to make the majors in a relief role just weeks after his selection. With Mark Buehrle’s defection via free agency, a slot has opened up, so the Sox can proceed with what they’ve always wanted from Sale: a southpaw tower of power capable of pumping pure gas from the mound. Although 2012 hasn’t been a season to look forward to on Chicago’s South Side, watching Sale every fifth day should be something people pay to see.

7. Jayson Werth, Nationals, from RF to CF: This isn’t guaranteed to happen, but it’s a very likely outcome should top prospect Bryce Harper somehow wind up making the team as the starting right fielder. The argument over whether Harper will be ready is one major hurdle, but whether Werth would be able to handle center field over a full season is another.

In baseball history, only two men as tall as Werth’s 6-foot-5 have ever played anything close to every day as a center fielder: Alex Rios of the White Sox over the past two years and the Phillies’ Von Hayes for big chunks of 1984 and 1985. Werth’s listed weight, 220, is heavier than either Rios' now or Hayes' then -- he’s simply a much bigger guy. Drew Stubbs is another big man in center -- he’s 6-foot-4, but also almost 20 pounds lighter. The Braves’ Dale Murphy was famously big for center, but at 6-4 and a listed weight of 210, he was also smaller than Werth.

If Harper makes a case to the Nats to play on Opening Day, could Werth really handle the pounding of racing gap to gap over a full season? If you have your doubts, you’re not alone, especially in light of GM Mike Rizzo’s recent decision to bring back Rick Ankiel (although on a minor league deal).

8. Jim Thome, Phillies, DH to 1B: As Jayson Stark pointed out last month, Thome’s challenge in moving back to playing a position might be remarkable, but he won’t be the only famous forty-something to have spent time at first base. But because he's played all of four games at first base in the past six seasons, concerns about his durability given his extensive track record for injury -- including two DL stints last season -- come to the fore.

However, even with the initial expectation that Thome will be little more than a Sunday starter and regular pinch hitter, you’ve got the open question about how much playing time in left John Mayberry Jr. might have to log, as well as the dubious proposition that Ty Wigginton will hit enough to handle the spot. Given the uncertainty about his lineup, Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel might well be tempted to take a few chances with Thome.

9. Daniel Murphy, Mets, utility to 2B: It remains to be seen how serious the Mets are about attempting to return Murphy to the keystone after he was knocked out with knee injuries -- while playing second base, no less. He has never been able to handle second base as a regular at any level as a pro, having played just 19 games there in the minors. This is a lot like what the team went through with Keith Miller more than 20 years ago. Even with the “Hal McRae rule” to protect second basemen, a basic level of agility is required at second base -- to protect yourself and to move around the bag effectively -- and there’s reason to doubt Murphy has it after injuries to both knees, if he ever had it in the first place.

10. Sean Doolittle, Athletics, 1B to pitcher: Speaking of knee injuries, bum wheels essentially ruined Doolittle’s shot to stick as a position player. The former supplementary first-rounder from the 2007 draft was a two-way star at Virginia in college. Now the A’s are trying to recoup some value from their investment by putting that arm to good use on the mound. He made an initial effort on the mound last season, throwing an inning in rookie ball. You can never know how these things will turn out, but Sergio Santos is the most recent example of a strong-armed player enjoying an overnight success with a move to the mound; A’s fans might have at least this one small chance to daydream.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

This is back-of-the-napkin stuff ... but fun back-of-the-napkin stuff. As we wait to see if Prince Fielder does land in Washington, let's check out the state of the NL East. We'll go position by position and rank the players. Then we'll come up with a final tally (five points for first, four for second, etc.)

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Wilson Ramos, Nationals
3. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
4. Josh Thole, Mets
5. John Buck, Marlins

Phillies fans will storm the bastille over this one and say I'm underestimating Ruiz's ability to call a game, but I think Wilson Ramos has a chance to be something special. He hit .267/.334/.445 as a rookie, spending most of the season at just 23 years old. The thing that bodes well is that his walk rate improved from 4 percent in Triple-A in 2010 to 8.7 percent last season. And to think they got him from the Twins for Matt Capps. Ruiz is an underrated player -- he's posted a .376 OBP the past three seasons -- but Ramos' power and potential for improvement put him at No. 2 behind McCann.

First base
1. Freddie Freeman, Braves
2. Ryan Howard/Jim Thome, Phillies
3. Ike Davis, Mets
4. Gaby Sanchez, Marlins
5. Adam LaRoche, Nationals

Yes, there's huge value for the Nationals in signing Prince Fielder. With Davis and LaRoche coming off serious injuries and Howard out for at least a couple months, I have to give the top nod to Freeman. Sure, maybe he'll succumb to the dreaded sophomore jinx, but baseball history also tells us that players often make a huge leap from age 21 to age 22. If Davis hits like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate, but while he says he's "good to go" for spring training, we'll have to wait to see how his ankle responds. As for Sanchez, he's a lukewarm cup of coffee on a 32-degree day.

Second base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Danny Espinosa, Nationals
3. Dan Uggla, Braves
4. Daniel Murphy, Mets
5. Omar Infante, Marlins

I put Utley first with some hesitation: His OPS totals since 2007 read .976, .915, .905, .832 and .769. Still, that .769 figure is better than Uggla or Espinosa produced in 2011, and Utley still carries a good glove. It's defense and predicted second-season improvement that pushes Espinosa over Uggla. Murphy doesn't hit many home runs or draw many walks, so most of his offensive value resides in his batting average. If he hits .320 again, he's a good player. If he hits .290, then he's still better than Infante.

Third base
1. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
4. Chipper Jones, Braves
5. Placido Polanco, Phillies

If healthy, Zimmerman is one of the best players in the league. Ramirez and Wright were once part of that discussion, but no longer. Both players had the worst years of their careers in 2011. Will Wright rebound with the fences moved in at Citi Field? Will Ramirez bounce back and handle the transition to third base? Your guess is as good as mine. Chipper is aging gracefully, playing through injuries but still putting up respectable numbers. If this is his last season, I hope he goes out in style.

Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Marlins
2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
3. Ruben Tejada, Mets
4. Ian Desmond, Nationals
5. Tyler Pastornicky, Braves

Not much debate here. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 as a 21-year-old. He doesn't have any power, but I believe the Mets are in good hands at shortstop. The same can't be said about Desmond, who must improve his defense (23 errors) and approach at the plate (139/35 SO/BB ratio). Pastornicky hit .314 in the minors last year, including .365 in 27 games in Triple-A. He puts the ball in play and has some speed, but won't hit for much power or draw many walks, so he'll need to hit for a good average to hold the job.

Left field
1. Michael Morse, Nationals
2. Martin Prado, Braves
3. Logan Morrison, Marlins
4. Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Phillies
5. Jason Bay, Mets

We have to consider Morse the real deal by now, don't we? Although he comes with a few caveats: That 126/36 SO/BB ratio is a concern; so is his .344 average on balls in play, which ranked 15th in the majors (can he repeat that figure?); and finally, he plays left field a bit like a fire hydrant. By the way, how bad is this group defensively? Morrison may have even less range than Morse, Brown looked terrible in right field with the Phillies last year and Bay isn't getting paid $16 million because he's adept at running down balls in the gap. Actually, I'm not sure what he's getting paid for.

Center field
1. Shane Victorino, Phillies
2. Michael Bourn, Braves
3. Emilio Bonifacio, Marlins
4. Andres Torres, Mets
5. Roger Bernadina, Nationals

This seems pretty straightforward other than the ongoing raging debate between Andres Torres fans and Roger Bernadina fans.

Right field
1. Mike Stanton, Marlins
2. Hunter Pence, Phillies
3. Jason Heyward, Braves
4. Jayson Werth, Nationals
5. Lucas Duda, Mets

Mike Stanton ... 2012 National League MVP? Too soon? I'm just saying don't be surprised if it happens.

No. 1 starter
1. Roy Halladay, Phillies
2. Josh Johnson, Marlins
3. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
4. Tim Hudson, Braves
5. Johan Santana, Mets

Is there a more important player in the majors in 2012 than Johnson? The Marlins fancy themselves contenders but they need a healthy Johnson headlining the rotation. After leading the NL with a 2.30 ERA in 2010, he had posted a 1.64 ERA through 10 starts in 2011 before shoulder tendinitis shelved him for the season. He's been throwing and long tossing and is expected to be 100 percent for spring training. Strasburg has the ability to be just as dominant as Halladay and Johnson, but the Nationals will likely monitor his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

No. 2 starter
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
2. Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
3. Mark Buehrle, Marlins
4. Tommy Hanson, Braves
5. R.A. Dickey, Mets

This is a terrific group of No. 2 starters, as even the knuckleballer Dickey posted a 3.28 ERA in 2011 (and 3.08 ERA over the past two seasons). Hanson has Cy Young ability, but his own shoulder issues from late last season raise a red flag.

No. 3 starter
1. Cole Hamels, Phillies
2. Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
3. Anibal Sanchez, Marlins
4. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
5. Mike Pelfrey, Mets

Zimmermann is the sleeping giant in the Nationals rotation. His strikeout/walk ratio of 4.0 ranked 11th-best among starters in 2011 and another year beyond his own TJ surgery should help him develop the stamina to improve on his second-half numbers (2.66 ERA before the All-Star break, 4.47 after). I'm not a big Jurrjens fan; he's a good pitcher, but he's now battled injuries two seasons in a row and his strikeout rate took a big dip last season.

No. 4 starter
1. Brandon Beachy, Braves
2. Vance Worley, Phillies
3. John Lannan, Nationals
4. Jonathon Niese, Mets
5. Ricky Nolasco, Marlins

You could draw this list out of a hat. Beachy and Worley surprised many with their exceptional rookie seasons; I believe both are for real, as both seemed to deliver better-than-advertised fastballs. Now they just have to prove they can become seven-inning pitchers instead of five or six. Niese is an excellent breakout candidate in 2012: He throws hard enough for a lefty (90-91), gets strikeouts, doesn't walk too many, gets groundballs. In fact, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 3.36 compared to his actual ERA of 4.40. It wouldn't surprise me to see him win 15 games with a 3.40 ERA. It would surprise me if Nolasco does that; 2008 is starting to look further and further in the rear-view mirror.

No. 5 starter
1. Mike Minor, Braves
2. Carlos Zambrano, Marlins
3. Dillon Gee, Mets
4. Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals
5. Joe Blanton/Kyle Kendrick, Phillies

If you're talking depth, the big edge here goes to the Braves, who also have prospects Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino ready to step in. Big Z is a nice gamble by the Marlins as a No. 5 starter, you could do worse.

Closer
1. Craig Kimbrel, Braves
2. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
3. Drew Storen, Nationals
4. Heath Bell, Marlins
5. Frank Francisco, Mets

As dominant as Kimbrel was in winning Rookie of the Year honors (14.8 K's per nine), he did blow eight saves. But Papelbon is just one season removed from his own season of eight blown saves. Factor in Kimbrel's K rate and slightly heavier workload, and I'll give him the slight nod. Bell will have to prove himself away from the friendly confines of Petco Park, so Storen rates the clear No. 3 here.

Bullpen
1. Braves -- Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Kris Medlen, Cristhian Martinez, Anthony Varvaro
2. Marlins -- Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn, Ryan Webb, Randy Choate
3. Nationals -- Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Perry, Tom Gorzelanny
4. Phillies -- Antonio Bastardo, Michael Stutes, Dontrelle Willis, David Herndon, Jose Contreras
5. Mets -- Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta

The top four teams all project to have solid-to-excellent pens. Venters and Clippard are arguably the two best set-up guys in baseball. Cishek is the rare sidearmer who can get lefties out as well as righties and he allowed just one home run in 54 innings as a rookie. The Phillies don't need many innings from their pen and while Willis could be a terrific lefty killer (lefties hit .127 off him in 2011), Bastardo must rebound from his late-season fatigue.

Intangibles
1. Marlins
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Mets

New stadium, new free agents, new manager, new uniforms -- I view all of that as a plus for the Marlins. The playoffs left a sour taste for the Phillies' veteran-heavy squad and those guys will want nothing more than to win a sixth straight division title. The Braves have plenty of incentive after their late-season collapse. The Nationals are young but have no chip on their shoulder. But if they sign Prince ...

The final tally
1. Phillies, 58 points
2. Braves, 56 points
3. Marlins, 49 points
4. Nationals, 48 points
5. Mets, 29 points

And the napkin says the Phillies are still the division favorite. What, you want to bet against Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels?

Here are four more of the biggest stories from 2011.

Justin Verlander wins Cy Young, MVP awards
In becoming the first pitcher to win the MVP Award since A's reliever Dennis Eckersley in 1992, and the first starter since Roger Clemens in 1986, Verlander led the AL in wins, winning percentage, ERA, innings, strikeouts, hits per nine innings, opponents' batting average, opponents' on-base percentage and opponents' slugging percentage. He was the first pitcher to win 24 games since Randy Johnson in 2002 and pitched at least six innings in every start -- in other words, he never got knocked out early. I wrote during the MVP debate that while there were other deserving candidates in the AL, 2011 felt like Justin Verlander's year. It was.

Game 6 of the World Series
It wasn't always elegant (there were five errors), but Game 6 immediately went down as one of the most exciting, legendary and improbable postseason games ever played. The Cardinals trailed 1-0, 3-2, 4-3, 7-4 and 9-7, but rallied each time. Five comebacks in a single game? A World Series game? With the season on the line? Are you kidding? Down to their final strike in the bottom of the ninth, David Freese tripled in two runs to tie it. After Josh Hamilton's two-run homer in the 10th, Lance Berkman -- down to his final strike -- singled in the tying run in the bottom of the inning, setting up Freese's dramatic walk-off home run in the 11th. I can't wait for the book.

Phillies rotation meets expectations
It was billed as the best starting rotation since the Greg Maddux-Tom Glavine-John Smoltz trio headlined the Braves. And Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels didn't disappoint, as each pitched at least 216 innings with Hamels' 2.79 ERA the highest of the three. They became the first team to have three starters pitch at least 200 innings, average at least eight strikeout per nine innings and post an ERA+ of 130 or higher. (Only five teams had two pitchers meet those criteria.) While Roy Oswalt battled back issues, rookie Vance Worley stepped in and posted a 3.02 ERA in 21 starts. Overall, the Phillies' rotation finished with a 2.86 ERA, the lowest in the majors since the 1985 Dodgers (2.71) and Mets (2.84).

Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Jim Thome reach milestones
Jeter reached 3,000 hits, Rivera passed Trevor Hoffman as the all-time saves leader and Thome became just the eighth player to hit 600 home runs.

Let's be honest: I don't think Arte Moreno cares too much about 2017 or 2018, let alone 2021, when Albert Pujols will be 41 years old and finishing up the final season of his 10-year, $254 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels.

Last week, ESPN Insider Dan Szymborski projected Pujols' numbers over the next 10 years. Szymborski's system predicts a fairly rapid decline for Pujols after the first four seasons. The Pujols defenders will rightly point out, however, that there have been few players like him in the history of baseball, that he doesn't drink and eats his vegetables and all that, and thus any projection system concerning Pujols will have a wide range of error.

So let's do this. Let's look at the most valuable first baseman or designated hitter since 1969 at each age, from 32 to 41, using Baseball-Reference's Wins Above Replacement system. I'm using designated hitters for two reasons: Pujols will inevitably end up there at some point, and as you'll see, many of the "best" players at these ages have been DHs, not first basemen. Simply put: First basemen, even great ones, do not age well. At the end, we'll compare the total WAR of this method to Szymborski's ZiPS system.

Age 32: Lance Berkman, 2008 Astros -- 6.7 WAR (.312/.420/.567)

Actually, Edgar Martinez of the '95 Mariners was higher with 7.7 WAR, but he was primarily a DH that year. Martinez hit .356/.479/.628. It's perhaps interesting to note that Berkman and Martinez (you'll see his name a lot on this list) have higher career walk rates than Pujols. Berkman is at 15.5 percent for his career, Pujols at 13.1 percent. Martinez finished at 14.8 percent. If you factor in only unintentional walks, the difference is even greater. Pujols' walk rate declined in 2011 to a career-low 9.4 percent. Some of that was due to a big drop in intentional walks, but he was also more aggressive at the plate -- he averaged 3.65 pitches per plate appearance, his lowest average since 2004 and the second-lowest average of his career. Was it an anomaly, or the sign of a hitter with declining bat speed looking to "speed up" his bat by cheating a bit? One of the keys to Martinez being so successful late into his 30s was his extraordinary plate discipline. Pujols doesn't strike out much, but if he's cheating, that means he'll chase more bad pitches. And remember, walks create value in the form of on-base percentage. Pujols' .366 OBP in 2011 was 60 points below his career mark entering the season.

Next five: Willie McCovey (6.4), Jim Thome (5.9), Cecil Cooper (5.9), Keith Hernandez (5.6), Jeff Bagwell (5.5).

Age 33: Rafael Palmeiro, 1998 Orioles -- 6.2 WAR (.296/.379/.565)

From 1995 through 2003 (when he was 38), Palmeiro averaged 41 home runs per season. His average WAR over that span was 4.1. The potential edge Pujols has over Palmeiro is batting average -- Palmeiro hit .285/.380/.556 and was helped by playing five seasons in Texas. On the other hand, Palmeiro had 90-plus walks in a season five times over that 1995-03 span. Pujols walked 61 times in 2011.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (6.2), Jeff Bagwell (5.3), John Olerud (5.1), Todd Helton (5.0), Mark McGwire (4.9)

Age 34: Mark McGwire, 1998 Cardinals -- 7.2 WAR (.299/.470/.752)

Well, needless to say this one comes with a big asterisk. Look below and you will see the overall values of the best first basemen are starting to tail off quite rapidly.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (6.2), Eddie Murray (5.6), Carlos Delgado (3.8), Jeff Bagwell (3.8), Don Baylor (3.7)

Age 35: Mark McGwire, 1999 Cardinals -- 5.5 WAR (.278/.424/.697)

Thome makes the next five list below. He's one of the best hitters of the past 25 years, but from age 32 on, Thome had just two seasons with an offensive WAR of 4.0 or greater (ages 32 and 35). He's a different kind of hitter than Pujols, of course -- lower average, more strikeouts, more walks. But through age 31, he was hitting .287/.414/.567. From age 32 onward, he's hit .264/.388/.542. Thome is actually a kind of a best-case scenario: He has maintained much of his value as a hitter, although he's had issues remaining completely healthy.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (5.0), Jim Thome (4.6), Al Oliver (4.3), Todd Helton (4.2), Wally Joyner (4.2)

Age 36: Paul Molitor, 1993 Blue Jays -- 5.7 WAR (.332/.402/.509)

We're starting to see more designated hitters now. Molitor, Martinez and Hal McRae were all DHs.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (4.6), Rod Carew (4.4), Will Clark (4.1), Hal McRae (4.0), Jeff Bagwell (3.5)

Age 37: Edgar Martinez, 2000 Mariners -- 5.7 WAR (.324/.423/.579)

Now it's getting even more extreme: Only Andres Galarraga played first base of the top six guys here. The point is: Pujols will have to continue to hit like Martinez and continue to play first base to maintain his WAR above 5.0. Martinez hit .324 at 37. Pujols' batting averages the past four seasons: .357, .327, .312, .299.

Next five: Andres Galarraga (5.4), Frank Robinson (4.7), Ellis Burks (4.0), Paul Molitor (3.3), Brian Downing (3.1)

Age 38: Edgar Martinez, 2001 Mariners -- 5.5 WAR (.306/.423/.543)

Again ... a bunch of DHs, other than Willie Stargell, who had a nice late-career push at ages 38 and 39 (hitting a combined .287/.367/.559 over those two years, although offering little on the bases or in the field).

Next five: Frank Robinson (3.7), Willie Stargell (3.4), Frank Thomas (3.3), Gary Sheffield (3.1), Rico Carty (3.0)

Age 39: Paul Molitor, 1996 Twins -- 3.4 WAR (.341/.390/.468)

Molitor had an amazing late peak: From ages 34 through 40, he hit .320. Again, a totally different type of hitter and athlete than Pujols -- smaller, faster, much more athletic in the traditional sense of speed and agility.

Next five: Edgar Martinez (2.8), Willie Stargell (2.3), Brian Downing (2.1), Frank Thomas (2.0), Dave Parker (1.9)

Age 40: Edgar Martinez, 2003 Mariners -- 3.5 WAR (.294/.406/.489)

Look how low the WAR totals are getting. These aren't players who offer much value at this point in their careers.

Next five: Brian Downing (2.5), Harold Baines (2.3), Paul Molitor (1.4), Pete Rose (1.4), Reggie Jackson (1.3)

Age 41: Brian Downing, 1992 Rangers -- 2.5 WAR (.278/.407/.428)

If Pujols is still playing in the final year of his deal, he'll have to defy the odds of Father Time to remain an asset for the Angels (and by asset, we mean you'll have to ignore his salary). Downing is the only first baseman/DH to produce a WAR above 0.1 at age 41 since 1969.

OK, the final tally:

Szymborski's ZiPS: 32.4 WAR -- 32 wins above replacement level
Best players at each age: 51.9 WAR -- 52 wins above replacement level

What's interesting is that currently a win on the free-agent market is worth about $5 million. Take $254 million and divide by $5 million, and you get ... 50.8 wins.

So, if Pujols matches the production of the best player at each age since 1969 for the next 10 seasons, his on-field value will actually match the contract Moreno gave him. As great as Pujols is, I don’t see that happening, especially considering the signs of decline the past four seasons (his on-base percentage has also fallen from .462 to .443 to .414 to .366). Also consider that -- to put this delicately -- at least a couple players on these lists had some unusual aging patters to their careers in the midst of the steroids era.

If Pujols helps deliver the Angels a World Series title or two in the next few years, Moreno will be happy. And yes, Pujols provides value in more ways than just wins on the field -- the Angels reportedly sold 1,000 season-ticket packages after the Pujols and C.J. Wilson signings were announced. No doubt Pujols jerseys and T-shirts will be extremely popular in Orange County this summer. But you can’t deny it remains extremely likely that the back end of the deal will be a major albatross for the Angels.

Next week, the GM and owners’ meetings in Milwaukee will have a number of issues to address, but one of the ones I’m most intrigued by is the sale of the Houston Astros to Jim Crane. The deal is hung up on a few things, but perhaps the most interesting sticking point is the suggestion that the franchise is worth $50 million less if forced to be moved to the AL West.

The benefit of moving the Astros seems straightforward enough. It would end the unwieldy oddity of baseball’s split between the two leagues, ridding us of both the AL West’s short stack and Bud Selig’s old six-pack in the NL Central. It would also eliminate the stagy quality of interleague play. Instead of lining up interleague for weekends to get top turnout and then calling it a success, AL vs. NL on the schedule necessarily becomes a season-round phenomenon. Don’t be surprised when interleague attendance and ratings drop as these games get welcomed to cold, wet Aprils and irrelevant teams’ Septembers.

There’s plenty to say about what the Astros’ move to the AL would involve, but right now I’m wondering about one element of it: Whether or not moving the Astros to the DH league from the classic-recipe circuit means it’s time to reopen the age-old Designated Hitter debate. If Jim Crane doesn’t want to employ a DH and doesn’t want to bring AL-brand baseball to Houston, maybe it’s time to pop the game’s hood and ask whether or not the DH is an artifact of the ’70s whose time has passed.

First, there’s the irony of the financial side of the proposition. At its foundation, the DH was founded as a money-maker. Across baseball’s long history, runs have reliably equaled attendance, and the American League wanted paying customers. If being forced to be in the DH league is part of what might arguably make the Astros less valuable, that’s a remarkable change within the industry. Admittedly, there are other factors to why Crane sees a move to the AL hurting franchise value, but work with me for a minute.

What if, instead of knocking down the Astros’ sticker price by $50 million, the owners instead tried to accommodate Crane and do away with the DH altogether? The owners can’t do such a thing unilaterally, of course -- they need the agreement of the union. But the new CBA is open and being negotiated at the moment, which means that this might be an item open for discussion. The 2012 season’s schedule is already set with the Astros in the NL, but realignment in 2013 could make for a convenient time to phase out the DH.

The argument from the players’ perspective for keeping the DH has always been about compensation -- in the abstract, they’re protecting the interests of 14 jobs open to well-paid veteran players. But who are today’s DHs? Not Jorge Posada, he just lost his gig in New York. And not Jim Thome -- he risked a move back to the NL. Are we really down to just David Ortiz as the lone example of a DH who lives up to the name? OK, there’s also Billy Butler in Kansas City.

A defense of the DH as a place where great hitters reside and get duly compensated would sound a lot better if we still had Frank Thomas or Edgar Martinez or Harold Baines playing. But we don’t get that; instead, we get the used-up husk of Hideki Matsui, and rest days for regulars. In the past 10 years just 10 players have accumulated more than a thousand plate appearances while DHing 50 percent or more of the time: Papi, Thome, Frank Thomas and Edgar Martinez, plus Travis Hafner, Jack Cust, Erubiel Durazo, Brad Fullmer, Mike Sweeney and Josh Phelps, or a lot of fine inheritors to the epic legacy of Ron Blomberg.

So other than the Indians’ long-standing regret for overpaying Pronk, maybe we’re back to this really being about David Ortiz’s job, and Butler’s, and perhaps Jesus Montero’s future. And on the other side, there’s a $50 million suggestion that the NL brand’s more valuable, with realignment and whatever goodies the owners might want to toss onto the scales to incentivize the players to get rid of the DH all hanging in the balance.

Not that I think this is likely. Slow news days encourage idle thought. And I’ll admit to a bit of sophistry here: I much prefer the DH and watching people who can hit to watching non-hitters flail away when they’re not just robotically surrendering outs in automatic sac bunt situations. Some call that strategy, but how much strategy can it be when that’s the default move? I like the DH because it keeps pitchers safe(r) from doing things that don’t involve pitching, and because it’s a handy way of letting position players take a break from the field while keeping their bat in the lineup. But I like baseball just fine either way.

The big-picture questions remain, though. If the Astros don’t want to be a DH team, and if being a DH-league franchise is seen as intrinsically less valuable, maybe it’s time to go over why Charlie Finley’s last good idea is still with us for reasons beyond “it’s good for Papi.”

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Just yesterday I noted where Jim Thome ranked among my five favorite free agents. Now, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com, Thome might not be a free agent much longer. He appears headed back to Philadelphia to play first base, for $1.25 million, pending a physical.

The Phillies had to find a substitute for Ryan Howard, who figures to miss at least the first couple of months of the season as he recovers from surgery to repair his ruptured left Achilles. Once you get past the flashy options , Philadelphia does not want Lyle Overbay as a dance partner trying to prop up a team offense that has dropped to around the league average -- whether you rely on OPS, OPS+ or equivalent average.

For Thome, it's a matter of trying to do something he hasn't managed to do since 2005, which is play first base with any semblance of regularity. You remember 2005, right? Papa Roach was big. It was a while ago. And Thome got hurt, first injuring his back in May before breaking down for keeps with a scragged elbow on July 1. He was 34 years old.

He's 41 now, with a career home run tally sitting at 604. He has little left to prove on his way to Cooperstown ... except perhaps that he can still play the field.

Can he do it? As far as DHs who attempted to return to the field late in their careers, there aren't a lot of happily-ever-after stories. Mike Easler gave it a shot in 1987 -- with the Phillies, no less -- and it didn't take. Easler had been an everyday DH for three years, but he'd played some first base and left field over that time. Yet he still was cooked as a position player at 36.

A more recent -- and more encouraging -- example is that of Jason Giambi with the Rockies. In a part-time role, "The Giambino" has done a nifty job of bopping from the bench and spot-starting for Todd Helton.

Having Thome around to contribute as a spot starter and pinch-hitting monster while Howard gets up to full speed, and then potentially give the Phillies some DH duty during the 2012 World Series? See, that's easy to imagine.

The problem is the time before Howard can come back and whether Thome can hold up when repeatedly playing the field. He'll almost certainly be platooned with John Mayberry Jr., which helps considerably. You also can bet that if Thome's old joints start aching, Charlie Manuel will sit him for day games after night games, regardless of who's on the mound. You can expect his defense to be terrible, however many polite compliments it draws in spring training. The focus in his starts will be on getting three or four at-bats and then getting him off the field with a double-switch or a pinch runner. Manuel has dealt with those sorts of handicaps before; it won't be a problem as much as a daily task.

Can Thome keep bopping at this level, as a 41-year-old? That might be a question better answered by Dan Szymborski, who projects results for ESPN Insider, but in the meantime, it doesn't seem like an unreasonable proposition. He still can walk around 10 percent of the time, and he'll still crank homers around 5 percent of the time. Citizens Bank Park isn't quite the bandbox it's reputed to be and is certainly an easier place to hit than the chilly expanses of Target Field.

As much fire as the Phillies catch -- and deserved to catch, even before the injury -- for Howard's latest deal ($125 million now through 2017 if they don't pick up his option), they couldn't afford to go without offense. Settling for an Overbay would not have guaranteed much offense. General manager Ruben Amaro is rolling the dice, but it's the sort of entertaining risk that might pay off. If it doesn't, it's doubtful the expense will be enough to prohibit the Phillies from going back to the dancers of Overbay's ilk.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

Hot Stove season’s already fired up, and we know that the big-name guys are going to get top dollar. However, the vast majority of players aren’t going to get contracts longer than a year or year plus an option, and when the arbitration-eligible players who get non-tendered hit the market later this month, GMs will have an even wider selection of free agents. That expanded supply of free agents won’t help the mid-market talents in their quest for security in terms of contract length and top dollar.

With that in mind, here are five players from baseball’s expanding “middle class” of free agents who will be interesting to follow -- with reasons why -- in the weeks and months to come as the market shapes up.

1. Javier Vazquez, starter. When the top starters on the market include Edwin Jackson, C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle, you understand why those with the deepest pockets are interested in Yu Darvish. Beyond them, the market features a huge group of veterans in various states of repair or recovery; Roy Oswalt and Erik Bedard represent the high end in terms of upside.

And then there’s the sporadically ace-worthy but often exasperating Vazquez. Two Bronx blowups and a lot of Windy City frustration suggest he’s not a great fit for homer-happy bandboxes, the DH league in general, and perhaps the AL East in particular. Limiting his market further still, he’s famously unwilling to go to teams out west. But for teams in the NL East or Central looking to get bang for their bucks, it’s worth remembering that over his past 24 starts in 2011, Vazquez posted a 2.70 ERA while holding opponents to .222/.257/.366 and striking out 24 percent of all batters. The tension between his track record for high-profile failure, his geographical wish list, and the shortage of starters on the market make his destination -- for how long and how much -- my most interesting plot to follow this winter.

2. Francisco Rodriguez, closer. The relief market’s packed with alternatives, so single-season saves record or no, K-Rod’s not likely to garner the same attention he got when the Mets handed him a three-year, $37 million deal. Add in his complaints about not closing as a Brewer or the incidents in New York that got him into legal trouble, and there will be some organizations who figure a poor citizenship grade’s going to keep him off their shopping list. But between the opportunity to make a fresh start, still-useful stuff, and his relative youth -- he turns 30 in January -- where he goes and for how much makes him particularly worth following. Much will depend on his willingness to settle sooner rather than later in a market where the best opportunities to rack up saves could dry up fast after Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell make their decisions.

3. Jim Thome, DH. Papi’s the big name in the DH free-agent market, and there are just four clearly open DH jobs out there: The job in Boston he’s potentially leaving, plus the Yankees’, Twins’ and Athletics’ DH gigs. The Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles and Rays might all be in the market, but they don’t have to be if they don’t want to be, creating a very short list of possible venues for veteran batsmen like Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada. For several guys, the specter of unwilling retirement or a spin in Japan or the Atlantic League looms, but Thome’s choices are limited to one of the very few DH gigs available or getting his clock for Cooperstown ticking.

4. Alex Gonzalez, SS. Say you’re one of the teams who doesn’t get Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal or Jimmy Rollins. That trio’s already priced out of many teams’ reach, leaving you with… antacid tablets, a review of your farm system’s ability to crank out an alternative, and short-term patches. Gonzalez isn’t going to be this winter’s Marco Scutaro, but if you were looking for a short-term patch to provide defense -- Gonzalez led major league shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved -- and modest sock from the bottom of the order, you could do worse. (Yuniesky Betancourt, anyone?)

5. Grady Sizemore, OF. It wasn’t that long ago that Sizemore was anticipated to be as big a factor in this winter’s market as people named Prince or Pujols. The Indians chucked him into the free-agent pool after deciding that his $9 million option was a bad risk, but the opportunity to see what he could do as a corner outfielder and playing with a creative deal built around his availability to play makes him a fascinating risk to run. The potential that he far outperforms that $9 million valuation is awfully tempting, but everyone knows that -- how far they’re willing to go on guaranteed money, vesting options, or across multiple seasons is what will make Sizemore’s spread of offers perhaps the most variegated of any free agent’s this winter.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

The thing they tell you about baseball is that it’s a marathon and not a sprint. This isn’t a game for sudden changes, rash decisions or riding a hot streak for the whole season. This is a game where only collapses are noticed, and even then they are usually a long, drawn-out process.

Yet, on one late, rainy September night, the marathon all but finished, it’s those precious last few hours that will decide everything. Will the Red Sox and Braves complete historic collapses? Will the Rays and Cardinals complete miracle runs?

We believe we’re in for a wild night. We want to believe we’re in for a wild night. Even if such anticipation often ends in predictable disappointment, maybe tonight won’t, maybe the possibilities that are there will come to pass. Maybe the Orioles will beat the Red Sox (again), maybe the Rays will come back against the Yankees, maybe Craig Kimbrel will blow the one save that really matters. We believe because baseball tells us it’s OK to believe, because Kirk Gibson showed us that you don’t need both legs to hit, and Jim Abbott showed us that you don’t need both hands to pitch.

We believe because we can.

* * * *

The season starts in March.

That alone should be telling; in the 85-year history of the old Yankee Stadium, no game was ever played in March.* Three seasons into the life of the new Yankee Stadium, and a crowd wearing so many layers it ends up waddling more than walking, packs into the concourses before the NCAA has yet to crown a men’s basketball champion.

The Yankees aren’t the only team to open on March 31; it’s a new thing they’re trying this season so that maybe the World Series ends before Halloween, the way it used to when you were still a child.** Still, while they’re introducing the 2011 Yankees, there’s some feeling this is a second-place team -- they missed out on Cliff Lee, missed out on Carl Crawford and signed Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Russell Martin and Eric Chavez. There isn’t the certainty here there is in Boston, or in Philadelphia.

It’s perhaps strange to think the biggest move of Philadelphia’s offseason was the acquisition of one single pitcher. Sign Cliff Lee. Keep everyone healthy. Win. It’s a simple formula, and it works well enough to produce the best record in the majors, the only team with 100 wins.

Boston, though, is a different story.

*There was supposed to be a March opener in 2008, but the weather intervened.

**Although the World Series has kept happening at a later and later date, November baseball itself first came about after a week of the regular season was lost in the fallout of 9/11.

* * * *

If you lose the first game of a baseball season, it’s no big deal. Sure, you prefer to start on a high note, but even the best baseball teams in history have lost close to 50 games. Things happen. A pitcher has a bad day, the offense struggles to hit in the cold damp of early spring. So when the Red Sox lose their first game, there are no alarm bells ringing, no bridges or ledges to check. If Carl Crawford goes hitless in four at-bats -- with the hat trick -- you shrug your shoulders and wait for tomorrow.

When you lose the next game, however, and the game after that, and the one after that, and so on until you’ve been swept in the first two series you’ve played, you’ve gone from unconcerned to outright panic. It takes a while in baseball to notice trends; sabermetricians and statistics buffs will tell you that the ultimate sin in baseball analysis is falling victim to the fallacies of small sample size. One good start cannot outdo a season of poor ones (ask A.J. Burnett), and one poor start cannot undo a season of good ones (ask Justin Verlander). Oh-and-one isn’t a concern, but 0-6 is, and by the time you get to 2-10, you’ve become familiar with the maxim: You can’t win a pennant in April, but you can lose one.

By the time Sept. 28 arrives, there’s one overriding question regarding the Red Sox: What if they had won just a few more games in April? What if they had won just one more game during those long nights?

* * * *

The Red Sox aren’t the only team to struggle out of the gate.

The season’s already seven games old by the time the Rays take their first lead.

* * * *



On April 2, Erick Almonte plays in a major league baseball game. It’s his first major league game since 2003.

He has four at-bats, and in three of them, he doesn’t reach base. The other at-bat is a home run.

Bartolo Colon returns from a year out of the majors. He pitches 164.1 innings for the Yankees (the team with the endless payroll signs him for just $900,000) and posts a 4.00 ERA. The last time he threw even 100 innings in one season? 2005.

If the Yankees strike gold with Colon, what do the Giants find with Ryan Vogelsong?

In the six years from 2001 to 2006, Vogelsong, pitching for the Giants and Pirates, had just one season with an ERA under 5.00, and just two with an ERA under 6.00.

In 28 starts with the Giants in 2011, the 33-year-old Vogelsong’s ERA will finish at 2.71.

It’s the fourth-best ERA in the National League.

* * * *

On April 30, for the White Sox, Adam Dunn is hitting .160/.300/.267, with two home runs. It’s a slow start, but other players have April slumps too -- Nick Swisher hits just .226/.340/.286 in the season’s first month.

Swisher will ultimately recover from his slump, and end the season with an .822 OPS. It’s not an All-Star season, but it’s perfectly respectable, the type of season some teams would kill to have from just one of their hitters.

Adam Dunn, however, does not recover.

His final line of .159/.292/.277 is, in some respects, worse than his April line, a historically bad season for a hitter, especially a player known for perennially finishing with 40 home runs ends the season with just 11.

* * * *

Dunn doesn’t hit home runs in 2011, but plenty of other players do.

Jose Bautista, as if to prove that he’s not a one-year aberration, does a Barry Bonds impression in the first half and finishes the season with 43 home runs. Curtis Granderson has 41. Mark Teixeira and Matt Kemp both have 39.

Everyone knows Derek Jeter will get his 3,000th hit in 2011, they just don’t know when. They do know, however, that the 3,000th hit won’t be a home run.

Except, it is.

What’s more, the fan who catches it, Christian Lopez, who can ask for the world in return for that ball, asks for absolutely nothing.

Then, on another night: Jim Thome hits his 599th and 600th home runs in the same game, giving his fans in Minnesota a lone night to cheer.

* * * *



The last time the Pirates finished a season with a winning record was 1992 -- when a man named William Jefferson Clinton was on the Democrats’ ticket for the White House.

The Pirates had a rookie pitcher that year who did quite well, with an 8-1 record and an ERA of 2.14 in 13 games started. His name? Tim Wakefield.

In 2011, when Tim Wakefield will notch his 200th win, there are three separate occasions in July, where, for a total of five nights, the Pirates go to sleep in first place.

The Pirates are undone by a 19-inning marathon with the Braves, a game that Scott Proctor actually wins, a game that, believe it or not, doesn’t have a position player pitching for either team, a game that sees a combined 39 runners left on base ... a game that ends on a blown call at home plate.

Pittsburgh fades into the quiet summer night. The Braves linger. For a little while, anyway.

* * * *

After losing 97 games in 2010 the Diamondbacks are branded underachievers. That young crop of Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, et al, has failed to mature. The bullpen is so noxious that someone jokes that the next time the phone rings, the bullpen coach should just let it go to voicemail*.

Kirk Gibson, who might know a little something about believing, somehow figures it out. Or, rather, if he doesn’t figure it out, it’s under his watch that his players do.

Arizona starts to win, and then they win again, and again, and when San Francisco can’t overcome injuries to Buster Posey and Brian Wilson, the Diamondbacks sense an opportunity.

They bite.

*via @Haudricort

* * * *



After 2010, one might think the Diamondbacks learned their lesson about bullpens.

Relief pitchers are supposed to have short lifespans.

They are supposed to come up, throw fire, be untouchable for a season or two, be emphatic in their celebration, and then fade into a sort of obscurity, only being remembered for that one World Series they helped their team win -- or, more often, lose.

They are not supposed to stick around long enough for 600 saves.

Yet, on a September afternoon, in what has been an unlikely season for the Yankees, a season of roster patches and Curtis Granderson home runs, Mariano Rivera stands on the mound, notches save No. 2 602, the all-time record, and celebrates with a handshake and hugs with his teammates.

Jorge Posada has to push the Yankees’ closer back to the mound, and force him to enjoy the adulation he’s earned.

* * * *

If only the Red Sox had Rivera.

If only the Braves had Rivera.

On Sept. 5, the Red Sox (they don’t know it yet, but The Collapse has already started) have a seven-game lead over Tampa Bay for the AL wild-card spot. The AL East, with the Yankees leading by just 2.5 games, is not out of reach.

On Sept. 5, the Braves lead the Giants and Cardinals by 8.5 games for the NL wild-card berth. The Phillies are too good for the NL East title to be realistic, but the Braves have such a cushion on the wild-card that the playoffs seem inevitable.

Baseball, though, is a marathon, and no one sees trends right away. The Red Sox lose a game here, the Braves lose a game there.

It’s OK, though -- it would take a miracle for the Cardinals or the Rays or the Giants or the Angels to pose any sort of threat. The Rays waited too long to call up Desmond Jennings and Matt Moore. The Cardinals are too busy worrying about Albert Pujols’ impending free agency. It can’t happen.

You know it can’t happen. There’s no possible way. It’s just a September slump.

Until it’s not.

Until you look up one late September day and realize the Red Sox need the Yankees to beat the Rays, not just so that their cushion doesn’t get any smaller, but instead, for their very survival.

Until you look up one late September day and realize that the Cardinals might actually have an easier time beating the Astros than the Braves will have beating the Phillies.

Until you look up one late September day and realize that barely averaging three runs a game for a month, even in a year of depressed offense, isn’t going to cut it when the other team has Albert Pujols (and even when they don’t).

Until you look up one late September day and realize that the Yankees, having clinched everything there possibly is available to clinch in the regular season (playoffs, division, home field), the Yankees have nothing to play for except the pride of not seeing the Red Sox in the playoffs, and the Rays now have everything on the table.

Until you look up, and believe.

* * * *



So we believe.

We believe even as the Braves are just two outs away.

We believe even though the Yankees lead 7-0 lead in the eighth inning.

We believe even though the Red Sox have the Orioles down to their last strike.

There’s no Kirk Gibson one-legged home run on this night, no Jim Abbott no-hitter, but we don’t need them.

We have 13 innings in Atlanta, 12 in Tampa and nine in Baltimore, maybe the most dramatic of all.

We get a two-strike, two-out, bottom-of-the-ninth pinch-hit home run from Dan Johnson. We get a two-strike, two-out double from Nolan Reimold off Jonathan Papelbon.

We get a Robert Andino single, a Carl Crawford misplay, and an Orioles win, and then, not five minutes later, we get an Evan Longoria home run just to the right side of the left-field foul pole. A cheap shot, one might argue on another day. Not tonight.

This is the night of the baseball miracles. A month long in the making, a month long to notice, but tonight they’re here, right before our eyes.

We believe because it’s real.

* * * *



Matt Moore has had one career start. Just one, and he’s tapped to start Game 1 of the ALDS for Tampa Bay, with his team on the road, with his team facing the offense of the Texas Rangers, at Arlington. The Rays can’t possibly win this game. Moore can’t possibly succeed with this sort of pressure.

Until he does.

One game won’t make a career, but we believe in courage.

Josh Collmenter’s a rookie, too. He’s a rookie, and he’s on the mound with his team down two games to none. Win or go home, kid, it all hangs on you.

Seven innings, two hits, one run, and the Diamondbacks will live to play another game.

We believe in hope.

Jorge Posada is not a rookie.

The last season of his contract has been an unmitigated disaster, on the field and, for a time, off it, but Posada battles.

His .429/.579/.571 batting line in the ALDS is the best of any Yankees’ hitter. Better than Robinson Cano or Granderson, better than Jeter or Alex Rodriguez, better than Teixeira or Swisher.

We believe in fight.

The Phillies sail through the regular season. Pitching and more pitching, a Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee-Cole Hamels starting three is a dream rotation; the Phillies get spoiled even further with Vance Worley and the best team ERA in the majors.

With that staff, the last image of their season isn’t supposed to be Ryan Howard clutching his ankle after rupturing his Achilles, but that’s what it is.

We believe in unexpected.

The Brewers aren’t afraid of Nyjer Morgan or Yuniesky Betancourt or Mark Kotsay, even when other teams shy away, even when the narrative is about Morgan’s character or Betancourt’s defense or Kotsay’s (lack of) hitting. They aren’t afraid to trade for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, even if it costs their entire farm system.

They have one season left to try to get Prince Fielder a World Series ring, the same Prince Fielder who hits a home run in the All-Star Game that will guarantee home-field advantage for whichever National League team makes it to the World Series.

If there is a season for the Brewers, this is supposed to be it.

We believe in going all-out.

Justin Verlander’s year has been so good that the debate isn’t whether or not he should win the Cy Young; it’s whether or not he should win the MVP. Yet, even with that performance, the move that puts the Tigers over the edge, that moves them from possible AL Central winners to probable American League contenders, is a trade for a pitcher who was 3-12 with a team that would go on to lose 95 games.

It isn’t Verlander to whom Leyland gives the ball in Game 5 of the ALDS; it’s Doug Fister.

We believe in second chances.

The World Series runners-up from 2010 have something to prove in 2011, and even while all the attention is on the Red Sox and the Phillies and the Yankees and the Brewers, the Rangers are still there, winning game after game.

This, we are told, is the Year of the Napoli. The Angels favored Jeff Mathis -- he of the career .194/.257/.301 batting line -- so Mike Napoli went to Texas instead, went to Arlington and posted a 171 OPS+ for the season, and then he kept hitting in the postseason, too.

Josh Hamilton’s story is such that if you pitched it as a Hollywood script they would tell you no, things like that don’t happen, that you can’t come all the way back from drug and alcohol problems to hit 28 home runs in the first round of the Home Run Derby in 2008 and then lead your team to the World Series in 2010 and 2011, that you can’t hit the extra-inning, go-ahead home run in the 10th inning of Game 6, and yet this is exactly what happens.

We believe in redemption.

The Cardinals are 10.5 games out in August and 8.5 back in September. Adam Wainwright doesn’t throw a single pitch for them all season. Ryan Franklin loses his job as the team’s closer and on June 17 Chris Carpenter is 1-7 with an ERA of 4.47. Matt Holliday loses his appendix and busts his finger; Albert Pujols breaks his wrist.

The Cardinals shouldn’t make the playoffs. They shouldn’t make the Phillies go five games, and then win because of Carpenter's complete game shutout (not when Tony La Russa’s managing, anyway). They shouldn’t beat the Brewers in Milwaukee, and they certainly shouldn’t have home-field advantage in the World Series.

They shouldn’t, but they do, and then they do more.

Albert Pujols echoes Reggie Jackson and Babe Ruth, hitting three home runs in one World Series game, arguably the best single-game offensive performance in postseason history.

In Game 6, the Cardinals are twice down to their last at-bat, twice down to their last strike, twice one pitch away from losing the World Series. Each time, the Cardinals come through, as though the idea of losing the game never occurs, and a team that loses its ace before Opening Day forces a Game 7 in the World Series.

Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. This is what they tell you. One game can’t tell you anything, one game can’t make or break you, but this is what happens in the World Series. One game is all that stands between St. Louis and a World Series championship that few, if any, expected.

One game, and the Cardinals have Chris Carpenter on the mound.

We believe in impossible.

Rebecca Glass works for ESPN Stats & Information and is a contributor to ESPN New York's Yankees blog.

Jim Thome's return to Cleveland may or may not help launch the Indians into the postseason -- we'll find out soon enough. Waiver-wire deals are almost always focused on the well-known veteran moving to the contending team, and the short-term results can be measured relatively quickly. The players sent back are usually unknown minor leaguers that are quickly forgotten. Or are they? Let's look back at a selection of waiver-wire deals going back almost 25 years, so we can see some of the long-term effects. You can decide who won these deals.

August 12, 1987: Tigers acquire Doyle Alexander from Braves for John Smoltz
People love to talk about this as one of the worst trades in Tigers history, but when you look at it from the perspective of the time of the deal, it wasn't all that bad. Smoltz at the time was a former 22nd-round pick toiling in Double-A with a 4-10 record, 5.73 ERA and 1.64 WHIP; the year before, in A-ball, he struck out only 5.6 batters per 9. Do those numbers scream "prospect?" On the flip side, Detroit acquired the wily veteran Alexander, who went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 11 starts down the stretch, significantly helping the Tigers win the AL East by two games over the Blue Jays. Sure, Smoltz went on to have a spectacular career, but if the Tigers didn't make that move, they may not have made the postseason.

August 31, 1988: Tigers acquire Fred Lynn from Orioles for Chris Hoiles and two PTBNLs (Cesar Mejia, Robinson Garces)
Fred Lynn hit seven homers and drove in 19 in 27 games for the Tigers, but batted only .222 as Detroit finished one game short of the AL East title. Lynn played one more so-so season in Detroit before moving on to San Diego and retirement. Meanwhile, Hoiles hit 151 homers in 10 seasons with the Orioles, including 112 from 1992-1996.

August 8, 1990: Pirates acquire Zane Smith from Expos for Scott Ruskin, Willie Greene and a PTBNL (Moises Alou)
It's been almost 20 years since the Pirates last enjoyed a winning season -- and Zane Smith was a member of that 1992 club. Smith went 6-2 with a 1.30 ERA down the stretch in '90 to help the Pirates finish first in the NL East, then went 16-10 in '91 to help them win another division title, and was the victim of poor run support in an 8-8 season for that final winning club in '92. On the other hand, Moises Alou went on to deliver a career .885 OPS over the next 17 seasons.

August 30, 1990: Red Sox acquire Larry Andersen from Astros for Jeff Bagwell
Like the aforementioned Alexander/Smoltz deal, this one goes down as a doozy, but again, it made some sense at the time. Unlike Smoltz, Bagwell had strong numbers in the minors -- a .310 average and .810 OPS in A-ball in 1989 and then a .303 average / .880 OPS in Double-A at the time of the deal. However, there were two issues in play. First was that Bagwell hadn't yet shown any of the home-run power required of a corner man; he'd hit only six homers in his first 831 plate appearances as a pro. Second, as primarily a third baseman at that point in his career, Bagwell was stuck behind Wade Boggs at the big-league level and the highly-touted (at the time) Scott Cooper in Triple-A. A move to first base was blocked by a behemoth named Mo Vaughn in Triple-A Pawtucket, who was already on the fast track to the majors. Meanwhile, the Sox were in a tight race with the Blue Jays and needed a reliable arm in the 'pen. Andersen provided that, posting a 1.23 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through 15 games in September, helping Boston win the AL East by two games. Remember, the Red Sox were still haunted by The Curse of the Bambino, and desperate times call for desperate measures.

August 27, 1992: Blue Jays acquire David Cone from Mets for Jeff Kent and a PTBNL (Ryan Thompson)
Cone -- the "hired gun" -- won four games down the stretch for the World Champion Blue Jays in '92, then left Toronto for Kansas City as a free agent that winter. Thompson was a five-tool player who never lived up to the hype and Jeff Kent went on to become, well, Jeff Kent -- though not until after he was jettisoned from New York in a 1996 deadline deal.

August 8, 1996: Rangers acquire John Burkett from Marlins for Rick Helling and Ryan Dempster
This was a good deal over the short term, as Burkett went 5-2 in '96 to help Texas win the AL West by 4.5 games -- but won only nine games per year for the next three before re-discovering the magic under Leo Mazzone's guidance in Atlanta. Ironically, Helling returned to the Rangers the following year in another waiver-wire deal, and won 20 games for them in '98. Over the long term, though, there is the matter of Dempster, who went on to become an All-Star in Florida and remains a solid MLB starter today.

August 28, 1996: Braves acquire Denny Neagle from Pirates for Corey Pointer, Ron Wright and a PTBNL (Jason Schmidt)
Neagle won only two games down the stretch for the Braves in '96, but won 20 in '97 and another 16 in '98 before being dealt to Cincinnati. Nothing became of Pointer or Wright, but Schmidt was a durable starter for Pittsburgh before becoming a dominant ace in San Francisco.

August 29,1996: Mariners acquire Dave Hollins from Twins for a PTBNL (David Ortiz)
Hollins hit .351 with a .916 OPS in 28 games for the M’s, who finished 4.5 games behind the aforementioned Rangers. Hollins left for Philadelphia as a free agent in the winter and you know what happened to David Ortiz -- but did you know that the Twins weren't the first team to give up on him?

August 6, 1998: Padres acquire Randy Myers from Blue Jays for Brian Lloyd
This deal is unique in that it not only looks bad in hindsight, it looked bad at the time. Lloyd never made it to MLB, which in retrospect softens the blow, but the deal put a strain on the low-budget Padres, who were responsible for $13.5 million through 2000 – back when that was a lot of money. The irony is that the Padres didn't really want or need Myers -- they were 13 games ahead of the second-place Giants and had a rock-solid bullpen led by Trevor Hoffman. However, Atlanta was likewise running away with the NL East -- and would therefore be the Padres' playoff opponent -- and they were desperate for a closer. Presumably, the Braves were working on a deal with the Jays for Myers, assuming he passed through waivers. So the Padres put a claim on Myers to block the deal -- and were caught off-guard when Toronto, looking to dump salary, were happy to let the Padres take Myers off their hands. Myers was awful for San Diego, posting a 6.28 ERA over 14 innings. He had rotator cuff surgery after the season and never pitched in MLB again.

August 26, 2003: Padres acquire Brian Giles from Pirates for Jason Bay, Oliver Perez and a PTBNL (Corey Stewart)
California native Giles had been pining for a deal to a team closer to home, and was obliged by being sent to the last-place Padres. He had some solid seasons in San Diego, but Petco Park and age robbed him of his home-run power. Interestingly, Bay was part of a deadline deal the previous year (the Mets traded him and two others for bullpen help), and would be sent away from Pittsburgh in another deadline deal. In between, he was an All-Star for the Pirates, and Oliver Perez (who also was eventually traded away in a deadline deal) had one brilliant season for the Bucs in 2004 before becoming an eternal enigma.

August 19, 2006: Phillies acquire Jamie Moyer from Mariners for Andy Baldwin and Andrew Barb
What intrigues me about this deal is the longevity the Phils received from Moyer, whose five wins down the stretch of a non-race in '06 were insignificant. Who would have thought that the ageless lefty would win 51 more games over the next four years?

Joe Janish is the founder of Mets Today, a SweetSpot network affiliate, and has thrown BP to Don Mattingly, caught Jim Bouton's knuckleball, and eaten a meal prepared by Rusty Staub. You can follow him on Twitter here.

Mark Simon and Steve Berthiaume hosted Friday's Baseball Today and among the fun discussions:

1. Did the Yankees really hit three grand slams in one game? That was awesome. But Phil Hughes wasn't.

2. Adrian Gonzalez has regained his power stroke but another Boston player has gone unnoticed this year.

3. Jim Thome heads back home to Cleveland.

4. Steve goads Mark into telling his story about meeting Dwight Gooden.

5. Speaking of Gooden, maybe we need a "five-year Hall of Fame," for guys who were awesome for five years.

Plus: The Giants, Kirk Gibson, Stephen Strasburg, why the Reds are great in WAR but possess a lousy record, plus much more!

Realistically, Jim Thome arrives in Cleveland too late in the season (and about five years too late in his career) to rescue his former team. The Indians got off to a 30-15 start on the strength of superb starting pitching and some spirited late rallies, but that seems like an awfully long time ago. They’re now 6 1/2 games behind Detroit in the American League Central, with a lineup that’s been decimated by injuries, and their staff just yielded 29 runs in four games with Seattle. Barring a sudden turnaround in September, they’ve boarded an Acela train to oblivion.

But if you’re partial to closure and final scenes of heroes walking off into majestic sunsets, the Thome-Tribe reunion makes for a heck of a story.

As an added bonus to Cleveland sports fans, the acquisition of Thome from Minnesota on Thursday steals some attention from the city’s NFL team. While the Eagles were toying with Colt McCoy and the Browns in their preseason game, Indians general manager Chris Antonetti landed the guy who was supposed to be the cherry on top of the Philadelphia Phillies’ roster.

Thome’s final destination has been an intriguing, under-the-radar work in progress for the past month or two. Everybody knew that the Twins would hang on to him until he launched career home run No. 600. But once that milestone came and went on Aug. 15 and the Twins faded from the race, the only question was where he'd go.

Philadelphia was the most natural fit for Thome if he wanted to have one final postseason fling, but the complex mechanics of August waiver deals made a return to Citizens Bank Park virtually impossible. Thome had to pass through every American League club and then every NL team to reach Philadelphia. He still has some thunder in that bat and he’s owed a reasonable $600,000 the rest of the way, so there was no way he was going to slip all the way to the Phillies.

Ultimately, fate and time produced the best possible alternative. Thome waived his no-trade clause and landed back in his baseball home with the organization that drafted him in the 13th round in 1989. In Cleveland he eventually blossomed into one of the game’s most revered sluggers. He learned how to hit under the guidance of current Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, his mentor in the minors and in Cleveland, and they developed a baseball “bromance” of the first magnitude.

“I know him just like my son, really,” Manuel said recently in the aftermath of Thome’s 600th homer. “I spent that much time with him. He's very dedicated. Everything he's done, he's a credit to the game. His attitude is off the charts. He's totally genuine and totally legit.”

Regardless of what happens to this Indians team the rest of the way, Thome’s return gives Cleveland fans another chance to reflect on the glorious 1990s, when the city and its franchise provided a model for doing things the right way. The Indians made the playoffs six times in a seven-year span, sold out 455 straight games at Jacobs Field and came tantalizingly close to a title before losing to Atlanta in the 1995 World Series and then dropping a heartbreaker to the Marlins in 1997.

Thome never finished higher than sixth on an MVP ballot as an Indian. But he holds the franchise record with 334 homers, ranks third to Manny Ramirez and Albert Belle in career slugging at .567 and is third behind Tris Speaker and Shoeless Joe Jackson with a .414 on-base percentage.

In 2002, Thome said someone would have to “rip the uniform off my back” before he would leave Cleveland, then signed a six-year, $85 million deal with the Phillies as a free agent. The outcry wasn’t exactly LeBron James-esque, but some Indians fans found it impossible to forgive. As Cleveland Plain-Dealer columnist Bud Shaw recently observed, “In Cleveland, there's no statute of limitations on holding a grudge.”

A lot has changed over the past nine years. Roberto Alomar just entered the Hall of Fame. Ramirez torched his reputation by using performance-enhancing drugs. Sandy Alomar Jr. is Cleveland’s first-base coach, and Charles Nagy, the pitcher who surrendered the climactic hit to Edgar Renteria in the 1997 Series, is running Kirk Gibson’s pitching staff in Arizona. Jacobs Field became Progressive Field, and the Indians are no longer a hot ticket -- they rank 25th in the majors in attendance this season.

But management bought itself some goodwill Thursday by bringing back Thome. He’ll be a nice role model for Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis and the kids, and a serviceable bat to replace the injured Travis Hafner at designated hitter. If you believe all the recent tributes to Thome as baseball’s premier “man of the people,’’ the ushers and concessionaires in Cleveland have reason to be happy, too.

Jim Thome has come full circle, and it’s only fitting that he’ll wear an Indians cap on the field before it appears on his Hall of Fame plaque. One day soon, Thome is going to drive a ball into the seats and take a home run trot to the accompaniment of raucous cheers from some old friends. It will be a sight to behold.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Conventional wisdom says you hit your big home run hitter in the cleanup spot. With Jim Thome joining the 600-homer club, I thought it would be fun to take a little look at the eight members of the club to see where they hit most often in their careers -- as it turns, only two of the eight hit cleanup most often and neither of them did it 50 percent of the time.

Barry Bonds

Career plate appearances: 12,606
PAs batting cleanup: 3,599 (28.5 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 242

Bonds received his most PAs in the three-hole, but also came to the plate more than 2,000 times in the leadoff spot (where he hit early in his career) and the five-hole. Bonds hit fifth in his first MVP season in 1990, as Andy Van Slyke hit third and Bobby Bonilla fourth. When Bonilla left after the 1991 season, Bonds moved into the cleanup spot. Inexplicably, Dusty Baker also hit Bonds fifth during his monster 1993 season when he hit .336/.458/.677. Will Clark and Matt Williams manned the three- and four-holes, but if Bonds had hit third or fourth (or even second) -- and thus received more plate appearances, the Giants may have picked up that one extra win they needed to tie the Braves that year.

Hank Aaron

Career plate appearances: 13,941
PAs batting cleanup: 5,126 (36.7 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 261

Fred Haney, Aaron's manager in Milwaukee, talked about moving Aaron into the leadoff spot since he would get more plate appearances, but he never actually did it. Aaron had nearly 8,000 PAs hitting third.

Babe Ruth

Career plate appearances: 10,617
PAs batting cleanup: 2,012 (19 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 144

We're missing some data from early in his career, when he was mostly a pitcher, but Ruth wore No. 3 for a reason -- that's where he batted most often, in front of Lou Gehrig. But if the Yankees had worn numbers in 1920 -- his first season with the club -- Ruth would have worn No. 4.

Willie Mays

Career plate appearances: 12,493
PAs batting cleanup: 1,849 (14.8 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 111

Mays started 66 games in his career in the leadoff spot. Most of these came late in his career -- 32 times in 1972 and 20 times in 1973, his final season. It actually made since in 1972, when he posted a .400 on-base percentage.

Ken Griffey Jr.

Career plate appearances: 11,304
PAs batting cleanup: 984 (8.7 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 56

Griffey batted third nearly his entire career.

Alex Rodriguez

Career plate appearances: 10,550
PAs batting cleanup: 4,173 (40 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 243

Did the '96 Mariners have the best 2-3-4 single-season combo of all time? Hitting second, A-Rod hit .358/.414/.631, Griffey hit .303/.392/.628 and Edgar Martinez hit .327/.464/.595.

Sammy Sosa

Career plate appearances: 9,896
PAs batting cleanup: 3,319 (33.5 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 215

Sosa received a few more PAs hitting third than cleanup.

Jim Thome

Career plate appearances: 10,220
PAs batting cleanup: 2,998 (29.9 percent)
Home runs hitting cleanup: 202

Thome has received more than 2,000 PAs in the third, fourth and fifth spots. On the 1995 Cleveland team that reached the World Series, Thome usually hit sixth -- and despite hitting .314/.438/.558 that year, began 1996 hitting seventh!

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

A very tired Keith Law held off on his nap to bestow the baseball knowledge for Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast -- I was there, too! -- and here are some of the topics we discussed!

1. Future Hall of Fame slugger Jim Thome breaks a milestone and we don’t have anything negative to say about it ... or do we?

2. Similarly, future Hall of Fame slugger Delmon Young -- um, wait a second -- was traded from Thome’s team to a first-place one and we actually do have something negative to say about it.

3. KLaw delves into reasons why the draft pick signing deadline late Monday wasn’t so exciting, discussing winners and ... well, winners.

4. Speaking of milestones, a New York Mets relief pitcher reaches one, and then his manager does something kind of silly. You must listen to find out what!

5. Should Atlanta Braves catcher Brian McCann be in the MVP discussion? An emailer says yes, but a KLaw says ...

Plus: Excellent emails, Derek Jeter versus Darwin Barney again, why it’s always BLT time, checking out the Tuesday schedule and we hear from our favorite cat, all on a packed Tuesday Baseball Today!