SweetSpot: Joe Girardi

MetsAP Photo/Frank Franklin IIThe Mets are off to a 3-0 start after sweeping the Atlanta Braves to start the season.
Hey, it's only one weekend but for one weekend New York Mets fans can rejoice in a simple statement of fact: the New York Yankees are 0-3 and the Mets are 3-0.

The Tampa Bay Rays' sweep of the Yankees was an important statement for the Rays, a team that has a brutal April schedule. The Rays follow up their series against the Yankees with a nine-game road trip to Detroit, Boston and Toronto, series at home against the Twins and Angels and then a three-game series in Texas. Not until they travel to Seattle and Oakland from April 30 through May 6 do they get an "easy" week. The Rays started 1-8 a year ago and managed to quickly dig out of that hole (they were 15-12 by the end of April), but this April schedule is a stiff challenge.

Jeremy Hellickson, everybody's favorite pitcher to regress to the mean in 2012, did exactly what he did in 2011: Limit hits even though he didn't strike out many batters. Pitching on his 26th birthday, Hellickson took a three-hit, 3-0 lead into the ninth. After walking Nick Swisher on a 3-2 pitch with two outs -- his 118th pitch of the game -- Joe Maddon finally brought in Fernando Rodney for the final out. Hellickson walked four and struck out four but the top three hitters in the Yankees lineup (Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano) went 0-for-11). As somebody wrote on Twitter, "Nobody induces more line-drive outs than Hellickson."

That was a knock against Hellickson's low average on balls in play in 2011 -- his .224 average was the lowest by a starting pitcher since 1988. But it's also a credit to Maddon and the Rays' defensive alignments. No team shifts and moves more on the defense than the Rays. You saw this result in several outs over the weekend, whether it was Mark Teixeira lining a ball to the second baseman playing in shallow right field or Alex Rodriguez grounding a ball over the second-base bag only to have the second baseman perfectly positioned.

Maddon will also move his players all over the batting order. Outside of Desmond Jennings in the leadoff spot and Evan Longoria in the three-hole, you never know how they'll line up. Carlos Pena hit second on Sunday and hit a third-inning home run off Phil Hughes. The Rays' lineup looks much stronger against right-handed pitching with southpaw power bats in Pena, Matt Joyce and Luke Scott. Teams would be wise to try and line up their left-handed starters against them.

Meanwhile, Joe Girardi looked like a kindergartner trying to take the SAT compared to Maddon. His intentional walk to Sean Rodriguez on Friday backfired when Pena hit a grand slam. He played Eduardo Nunez at shortstop on Saturday and his first-inning error led to two unearned runs. Look, Jeter will have to take days off throughout season and while you can understand the desire to sit him on turf, it's also just the second game of the season. Shouldn't Jeter be sitting against the Twins or Mariners or Orioles and not the Rays? And keep in mind that Nunez isn't any better on defense than Jeter; his Defensive Runs Saved in 2011 was minus-8 in 386 innings; Jeter's total was minus-14 in 1047 innings.

With Swisher battling a sensitive hammy, Girardi also put Raul Ibanez in right field on Sunday. This is akin to playing a fire hydrant out there. With two outs in the first Joyce blooped a ball to right field that should have been caught. Ibanez misplayed it into a triple, allowing Longoria to score the game's first run.

The Yankees travel to Baltimore on Monday, with Ivan Nova facing Brian Matusz. Nova had a rough spring, giving up 31 hits and five home runs in 22.1 innings, although he did have a 17/3 SO/BB ratio. The Yankees are 0-3 and while it's fun to pretend they are panicking, that's not really the case. This series was more about Tampa Bay doing everything right. But it is the Yankees, and when they start 0-3 that's not how most fans will view it.

* * * *

As for the Mets, they completed their sweep of the Braves as Jonathon Niese took a no-hitter into the seventh. The Mets nearly blew a 7-0 lead but held on for the 7-5 victory as Frank Francisco picked up his third save.

I watched a few innings of this game and one thing the Mets' hitters do is work the count very well. Atlanta starter Mike Minor threw 104 pitches in just five innings. On Saturday, Jair Jurrjens threw 102 pitches and didn't get out of the fifth. Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy may not have a lot of power at the top of the order but they're pesky, make you throw strikes and should go a nice job of getting on base. On Saturday, each saw 23 pitches in five plate appearances; on Sunday, they saw a combined 40 pitches as Tejada went 4-for-5 and Murphy 2-for-5.

It's easy to forget, but the Mets did lead the NL East in runs scored in 2011 -- despite playing in Citi Field. They did this with a lot of a patience as they led the NL in walks drawn. Yes, Jose Reyes is gone and Carlos Beltran was part of that production, but the Mets don't have any easy outs in the lineup. All eight regulars (Andres Torres landed on the DL with a calf injury after the season opener) are capable of posting a .340 OBP and that means the Mets could once again end up leading the division in runs.

Like the Rays, the Mets face a tough April: Washington, at Philly, at Atlanta, San Francisco, Miami, at Colorado, at Houston. Let's not overreact to three games and declare the Mets contenders, but I don't believe they're the 95-loss team that many fans believe. The Mets drew 27,855 on Easter Sunday, 14,000 short of capacity. It will take more than a 3-0 start to turns Mets fans into believers, but at least they can spend a few days having fun at the Yankees' expense.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
If my math is correct, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees still have 17 games against each other. The Rays and Boston Red Sox have 18 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees have 18 games against each other. And all three teams have 18 against the Toronto Blue Jays.

That's 107 more games of American League East mini-wars, in which every game will be treated as the one that may win -- or lose -- a division championship.

Friday's game at the Trop was as interesting as a regular-season game can be, with a hundred little moves worth discussing and dissecting. Rays manager Joe Maddon was already in midseason form, calling for a squeeze bunt, pinch-hitters and lefty/righty matchups out of the bullpen. Yankees counterpart Joe Girardi went to his trusty binder in the bottom of the first inning and got burned. And the greatest closer of all time failed to do his job. Yes, I'll take more, thank you very much.

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Carlos Pena
AP Photo/Phelan M. EbenhackCarlos Pena's game-winning hit was his first ever off Yankees closer Mariano Rivera.
A few quick highlights about a game you could write 3,000 words about:
  • With two out in the first and runners on second and third, Girardi had CC Sabathia walk Sean Rodriguez to pitch to Carlos Pena. Girardi has a bit of unusual obsession with the intentional walk. Sabathia, for example, issued 17 IBBs over the previous three seasons. Compare that to guys like Justin Verlander (0), Cliff Lee (3), Roy Halladay (5) or Jon Lester (0). Anyway, while it's true Pena struggles against left-handers (.133 in 2011, .179 in 2010), it's also true that he's a very patient hitter willing to take a walk. Juicing the bases forces Sabathia to throw a strike. Pena worked the count to 3-2 and drilled a fastball for a grand slam. An intentional walk on Opening Day with two out in the first inning? Just ... well, wow.
  • Down 6-5, the Rays had a great chance to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth when they put runners on the corners with no outs against David Robertson. Maddon sent Stephen Vogt in to hit for Elliot Johnson, Vogt's first major league at-bat. Robertson struck him out on four pitches -- two 92 mph cutters and a fastball up sandwiched around a curveball in the dirt. With Jose Molina up and a 1-1 count, Maddon sent the runners ... except Molina missed the squeeze sign and instead fouled off the pitch. Maddon, with the proverbial guts of a cat burglar, went right back to the squeeze, but Molina fouled it off for strike three. Robertson than fanned Matt Joyce to escape the jam.
  • Mariano Rivera entered to close out it out. Desmond Jennings singled to right-center and Ben Zobrist tripled to deeper right-center. Girardi -- remember, he loves the intentional walk -- gave free passes to Evan Longoria and Luke Scott to load the bases. Once again, Girardi left his pitcher with no margin for error. Rivera fell behind 3-1 to Rodriguez but came back to strike him out, bringing up Pena. He got the count to 1-2 and the strikeout-prone Pena looked like a dead duck. Instead, Rivera threw a meaty pitch over the middle of the plate and Pena lofted a deep fly off the base of the wall in left-center. Game over. His first hit ever off Rivera. "Oh, yeah. [I was] very aware of it," Pena said. "His ball moves so much that your eyes deceive you." But Pena's eyes mapped this Rivera cutter, giving him a three-hit, five-RBI day. And as Pena did a postgame on-field interview, B.J. Upton delivered a shaving cream pie in the face that tasted just right.
Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.
We closed out a full week of Baseball Today podcasts with Friday’s memorable edition, as Mark Simon and I kind of made things up as we went along, but in a fun and entertaining way!

1. First we talked about poor Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees, and wondered whether he’ll ever be relevant again.

2. What about Kendrys Morales of the Angels? We think he’ll matter soon to any Angels lineup lacking a bit.

3. More about movies and their occasional sports inaccuracy in our email segment!

4. What off-the-wall storyline would we like to see this season, something that has never happened before? And no, we don’t mean the Cubs winning the World Series.

5. And finally our ridiculous question of the day (which Mark again sung -- an appearance on "American Idol" is next for Mark!) deals with older players hitting as many home runs as their age. Fun!

So have a seat, put your feet up and download and listen to Friday’s cool Baseball Today podcast, because let’s face it, I was sitting with my feet up when we recorded it. Have a great weekend and we’ll still be daily next week!

Robin Ventura and the trial by fire

March, 4, 2012
Mar 4
11:00
AM ET
Robin VenturaAP Photo/Jae C. HongThe team GM Kenny Williams, left, hired Robin Ventura to manage certainly has its share of holes.


Robin Ventura succeeds Ozzie Guillen as manager of the White Sox, having never managed (or coached) at any level in pro ball. Just what has he gotten himself into?

Distinguished Playing Career

Although he will be hard-pressed to make as vivid an impression as his predecessor, Ventura should be able to command the respect of his players on the basis of his own career as a player. Though he isn’t a Hall of Famer, he has certainly had a career worthy of a Cooperstown exhibit. He was a three-time All-American at Oklahoma State University, where he set the NCAA consecutive game hitting streak record of 58 (he still holds the Division I mark). He was a first-round draft pick (10th overall) of the Chicago White Sox in 1988 and made his big-league debut a year later, after only 129 games in the minors.

While never a top-10 player, with few "black ink" stats on the back of his baseball cards, his career was notable for its consistency. Though he only surpassed 100 RBIs and 30 homers twice in his 16-year career, he was a six-time Gold Glover at third, and from 1991-2003 he compiled a 117 OPS+, with no season lower than 97. Whatever foot speed he had in his youth was erased in a horrific fractured/dislocated ankle injury suffered during a spring training game in 1997. He had compiled a line of .276/.367/.442 prior to 1997, but only .256/.357/.446 from 1997 onward.

Ventura had a knack for making history with the bases loaded. On September 4, 1995, he became only the eighth player to hit two grand slams in the same game. On May 20, 1999, he became the first and only player to hit a grand slam in both games of a doubleheader. During Game Five of the 1999 National League Championship Series, he hit a walkoff slam, which turned into a "Grand Slam Single" when his trip around the bases was interrupted by a celebrating teammate who hoisted Ventura up, preventing him from touching home plate. Another memorable moment came in a game against the Rangers in 1993, when he decided he didn’t like getting hit by Nolan Ryan, and charged the mound, only to be "noogied to death" by the 46-year-old Texan.

Track record of neophyte managers

Of those who will be pacing a dugout in 2012, at least seven went into their first big-league stewardship like Ventura is now, a babe in the managerial woods. But unlike Ventura, they all had prior coaching experience. Let’s examine how those seven did in their first two seasons:
  • Dusty Baker (1993 Giants): Baker inherited a team that won 72 games in 1992. Thanks in large part to the addition of free agent Barry Bonds (who compiled a 1.136 OPS), San Francisco improved to a 103-59 record in 1993, with Baker winning NL Manager of the Year. The '94 squad slumped to a 55-60 mark in the strike-curtailed season.
  • Bob Melvin (2003 Mariners): The 2002 squad went 93-69, only good enough for third place in the highly competitive American League West and six games out of the wild card. Melvin guided the M’s to the exact same record in his first year. This time they nabbed second place in the West, but still missed the wild card by two games. Melvin’s second year saw the Mariners fall from seventh to last in the AL in runs scored, and the team went 63-99. Melvin was fired after the season.
  • Ozzie Guillen (2004 White Sox): After the Sox went 86-76 in 2003, Guillen took over in 2004 and led the team to an 83-79 finish. His second season was when the magic happened: An AL-best 99-63 record and a 11-1 postseason record culminating in the franchise’s first title since 1917.
  • Joe Girardi (2006 Marlins): The 2005 Florida squad went 83-79, and Girardi somehow guided the team with the lowest payroll in the majors in '06 to a very respectable 78-84 record. He was rewarded with the NL Manager-of-the-Year award, but not before getting fired by the Marlins due to some clashes with ownership.
  • Bud Black (2007 Padres): Black’s fortunes were similar to Melvin’s -- he barely changed the team’s record in his first year (going from 88-74 to 89-74, with that 163rd game being a loss in the wild card tiebreaker), then saw the team totally collapse in his second season (63-99).
  • Kirk Gibson (2010 Diamondbacks): The D-backs had suffered through a 70-92 campaign in 2009, and were on the same path in the middle of 2010 at 31-48 when Gibson took over. He guided them to a slightly better 34-49 finish, then surprised most pundits with an NL West Division title in 2011, going 94-68 and earning the league’s Manager-of-the-Year award.
  • John Farrell (2011 Blue Jays): After the Jays finished in fourth place in the AL East 2010 despite an 85-77 record, manager Cito Gaston retired, and Farrell was surprisingly given the reins. The Jays meandered to an 81-81 ledger in 2011, never more than four games over or five games under .500 at any point.
  • Don Mattingly (2011 Dodgers): Donnie Baseball took over for a retiring Joe Torre, who had gone 80-82 in 2010. Despite all the off-field distractions, and very little offense outside of Matt Kemp, Mattingly was able to guide the Dodgers to an 82-79 record in 2011.

Two of the most recent examples of managers being hired despite no prior managing or coaching experience have turned out poorly:
  • Buck Martinez (2001 Blue Jays): The 2000 season saw the Jim Fregosi-led Jays go 83-79. Martinez, who spent most of his post-playing career in the broadcast booth, led the ’01 squad to a similar 80-82 record; after getting off to a 20-33 start in 2002, Martinez was fired.
  • A.J. Hinch (2009 Diamondbacks): The 2008 Diamondbacks went a disappointing 82-80, and when they started out 12-17 in '09, Hinch was given the job, at the tender age of 34. He led the team to a 58-75 finish to that season, and was 31-48 in the 2010 campaign when he was replaced by ... Kirk Gibson.

As you can see, most times there is little change in year one, but major upheaval (both good and bad) in year two.

The team he will manage

Since their splendid 99-63 regular season run to the 2005 World Series title, the record of the ChiSox has been neither wretched nor exemplary. With the exception of 2007 (a 72-win campaign), they’ve won between 79 and 90 games each year. They’ve compiled a .511 winning percentage and just one playoff appearance. They rank 13th in W-L percentage during that time.

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John Danks
Jennifer Stewart/US PresswireHow John Danks, right, performs as No. 1 starter and whether Gordon Beckham can get his OPS back on track are key questions awaiting Ventura.
But last year’s club showed some glaring weaknesses. On offense, the 2011 squad had only two regulars compile an OPS greater than .728 (the league OPS was .730) or over a 100 OPS+. There were 22 players with more than 400 plate appearances and a sub-.660 OPS during 2011, and the Sox had five of them. The team finished no higher than seventh in the AL in any offensive category. It were also the third-oldest offense in the league. On defense, committing the second-fewest errors in the AL couldn’t mask the lack of range afield, as White Sox' Defensive Efficiency ranked third from bottom. If you reached first base against the Sox, you ran, as they threw out a league-low 22 percent of stolen-base attempts. The pitching helped keep some of the pressure off of the defense, as their 7.5 K/9 and 2.78 K/BB led the AL. But they still ended up with a league-average 4.10 ERA.

In 2012, the club will face some major hurdles if it wishes to improve on last season's performance or even just to keep pace with it. The starting rotation must replacing staff ace/workhorse Mark Buehrle’s 200-plus innings. Buehrle’s 2,425 frames since 2001 are 60 more than anyone else. John Danks, who pitched better than his 4.33 ERA might suggest, assumes the No. 1 starter position, with 22-year-old Chris Sale stepping into the rotation. Philip Humber pitched more than 21 2/3 innings in the majors for the first time in 2011, by 141 innings; his BABIP was a low .276, and something may have to give in 2012. In the bullpen, Matt Thornton has been the ChiSox primary set-up man for six years, and had a shot to close last year but lost it; with the departure of Sergio Santos via trade, can the 35-year-old Thornton step up, despite a sharp drop in his K/9 rate last year (12.0 to 9.5)?

On offense, there is a growing concern over second baseman Gordon Beckham. The former first-round draft pick has seen his OPS slide from .807 to .695 to .633, though his defense has improved at second base. Third baseman Brent Morel may not be the answer at the hot corner, as his profile (a .250 doubles hitter with few walks and below-average range) is lacking for the position. Catcher A.J. Pierzynski is 35 and closing in on 1,500 games behind the plate. His 120 games at catcher last year were his lowest since 2004, and he threw out only 20 percent of runners attempting to steal, below his career mark of 24 percent. There have been only 30 player-seasons in the past 50 years where a 35-or-older catcher has managed at least a .728 OPS (as Pierzynski did last year).

Then we come to the two biggest enigmas, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. Everyone is well aware of Dunn’s legendary collapse in 2011, including his .064 batting average versus lefties. With three years and $44 million to go, can new hitting coach Jeff Manto get "The Big Donkey" standing upright again? Also, while Rios will never truly be worth the $21 million he is drawing each year through 2014, the Sox hope for something closer to the .284/.334/.457 line of 2010, rather than the .227/.265/.328 slash of 2011. They’re moving him to left field this season, where he has played one game his entire career.

Will Ventura exceed expectations?

So, Robin Ventura will certainly have his hands full (and tied) with a team that is, at best, in transition and, at worst, about to fall off a cliff. If he can move the White Sox in the right direction, it will be yet another extraordinary performance, as impressive as any of his grand slams. Given his history as a player, and the opportunity to establish a new atmosphere in the clubhouse, I think there is at least a chance he can pull it off.

Diane Firstman blogs about baseball at Value Over Replacement Grit, a SweetSpot network affiliate, and you can follow her on Twitter at @dianagram
I spent last night watching the postgame coverage on YES. I listened to Yankees fans calling in to sports-talk radio as I drove in to work this morning. I have the Mike Francesa show on YES on right now as I write this. Love the Yankees or hate the Yankees, the day after they're eliminated from the postseason is always one of the more interesting days of the year: The overanalysis, the stunned shock of defeat, the placing of blame on Alex Rodriguez. As Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay said on Mike & Mike about Game 5, "You couldn't find a person in New York who thought the Yankees had a chance to lose that game. ... Everything was lined up for the Yankees to win, it just was."

OK, some thoughts on all this, the 10th time in 11 seasons that will end without a World Series pennant flying over Yankee Stadium, the seventh time in eight years that ends without the Yankees making a trip to the World Series.

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Ivan Nova
AP Photo/Kathy WillensRookie starter Ivan Nova gave up first-inning homers to Don Kelly and Delmon Young in Game 5.
1. I didn't quite understand why everybody thought this was such a sure win for the Yankees. Did I miss the memo where Ivan Nova had suddenly turned into Bob Gibson? Do people realize this is baseball, where anything can one happen in one game? You could have put the Houston Astros out there and they would have had a chance to win. Plus, the dismissing of Doug Fister was a little embarrassing. It's easy to argue that Fister is a better pitcher than Nova and certainly not inconceivable that he could outpitch Nova. In analytical terms, the game was a toss-up.

2. You can extend that analogy one step further: Not enough fans understand that the baseball playoffs are a crapshoot. Since 1990, you know how many teams with the best regular-season record have won the World Series? Three -- the '98 Yankees, '07 Red Sox and '09 Yankees. If you make the playoffs, you essentially have a 1-in-4 chance of reaching the World Series. If you get to the World Series, you have 1-in-2 chance of winning. So if you make the playoffs every season you should win a World Series once every eight years. In their past eight trips to the postseason, the Yankees have reached two World Series and won one. Exactly what the odds would predict.

3. Of course, the current Yankees suffer in comparison to the 1996-2000 squad that captured four World Series titles in five years. What that team did was simply mind-boggling, going 46-15 in the postseason over a five-year span ... that's a .754 winning percentage, which is higher than the 1927 Yankees. That kind of run will never happen again. It can't. It just defies the laws of probability and postseason baseball. Since 2001, the Yankees have gone a still-impressive 48-43 in the postseason, but it's led to just one championship. (There's a comparison here to be made with the 1991-2005 Braves. In this ESPN Insider piece, Dan Szymborski reported that given their opponents, the Braves' postseason record of 63-62 was only one game worse than their expected record of 64-61.)

4. Let's not forget that the Yankees actually outscored the Tigers in the series by 11 runs. Of course, playoff series aren't determined on aggregate.

5. Alex Rodriguez ... look, you can argue that he shouldn't have been hitting cleanup. That would be the major question regarding Joe Girardi's managing in the series. Yankee fans love to bash A-Rod, of course, and it's somewhat understandable why. Here are his postseason averages since joining the Yankees:

2004 -- .320
2005 -- .133
2006 -- .071
2007 -- .267
2009 -- .365
2010 -- .219
2011 -- .111

Add it up and his overall postseason line with the Yankees isn't as bad as you think, however: .260/.388/.480, with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs in 53 games. He's hardly the one who should be "blamed," however. Here's how some of the Yankees did with runners in scoring position this series:

Derek Jeter: 1-for-8
Curtis Granderson: 1-for-4
Nick Swisher: 1-for-5
Russell Martin: 0-for-3
Mark Teixeira: 0-for-3
Alex Rodriguez: 0-for-5.

By the way, I'm not quite sure why Teixeira seems to escape criticism. His career postseason line (including one series with the Angels) is an abysmal .207/.315/.322, with just three home runs and 13 RBIs in 31 games. Swisher is a .169 postseason hitter in 38 games, with just six RBIs (he's 1-for-31 in his postseason career with runners in scoring position). The blame can be spread around.

6. You can't really fault Girardi too much. You can question the odd Eric Chavez pinch-hitting move for Brett Gardner in Game 3 and I thought his handling of the bullpen in Game 5 was a little questionable. Like pretty much every manager today, Girardi gets too locked into roles: David Robertson in the eighth, Mariano Rivera in the ninth. I know Ivan Nova's injury made things a bit more difficult, but I didn't like the idea of using CC Sabathia unless absolutely forced to. He brought in Sabathia to face the top of the Detroit lineup in the fifth inning when the Yankees trailed 2-0. Austin Jackson doubled and then after two strikeouts, he intentionally walked Miguel Cabrera. I think there were two better options as that inning unfurled: (1) Bring in Rafael Soriano to start the inning in the first place, try and get two innings from him, and then two from Robertson and then Rivera; or (2) once Sabathia had put two runners on base, bring in Robertson. What are you waiting for? I know it's CC Sabathia, but he was pitching on two days' rest. You cannot afford to allow any more runs at the point and Robertson was terrific all season. You have to manage Game 5 differently, and in my book, that meant getting as many innings as possible from Robertson and Rivera.

7. The Rob Thomson hold on A-Rod: Absolutely the right call. After the watching the replay again this morning, Rodriguez would have been out by 15 feet. Good decision by Thomson not to run the team out of a big inning.

8. For all the questions of "What will the Yankees do next?" the answer is: Not much. I expect the whole lineup will return, with the exception of Jesus Montero taking over the DH role from Jorge Posada. The bullpen is set with Boone Logan, Soriano, Robertson and Mo. A-Rod will be a year older and maybe a year more injury-prone (he's missed 150 games over the past four seasons and I wonder if we can ever expect him to play 150 games injury-free again). Jeter is a year older. Swisher will be 31. Teixeira will turn 32 and his OPS has declined three seasons in a row. And the rotation ... well, let's see if CC opts out of his contract and go from there. No doubt the pressure will be on GM Brian Cashman to re-sign Sabathia, and maybe go after free agent C.J. Wilson or swing a trade for another rotation anchor.

9. Anyway, it was a fun, interesting series. Did the better team win? Maybe, maybe not. I certainly don't buy the argument that the Yankees should have won the series and Game 5. There is no should in postseason baseball.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

I was sure Alex Rodriguez was going to pop one out.

I was pretty sure Mark Teixeira was going to pop one out.

I knew Nick Swisher was going to knock one over the short porch in right field, probably down the line and into the first row.

That's what we expect from the New York Yankees, isn't it?

When the Yankees asked Joaquin Benoit to remove the big bandage that covered a zit or mosquito bite or whatever had infected his cheek like a small alien, you knew it was coming: Benoit would be rattled, he'd be thinking about exposing his sore to a national TV audience more than throwing strikes and the Yankees would win another big October game.

Band-Aid Gate. We all saw it coming.

And it almost did. Curtis Granderson reached out on a 3-2 pitch off the plate and looped a liner into right field to move Derek Jeter to second base. Robinson Cano hit a dribbler to Benoit's right that he stabbed at and somehow missed to load the bases. Bringing up Rodriguez. He just missed a 1-1, 95 mph fastball, fouling it straight back. He laid off a low changeup. Benoit came back with another changeup, a fantastic one that dove inside, an unhittable pitch. A-Rod missed it, swinging over the top. The fans booed as he walked back to the dugout. Sometimes it's not easy being the $275 million cleanup hitter.

But Teixeira walked on five pitches. Tigers 3, Yankees 2.

Nothing beats the tension of postseason baseball, especially in Yankee Stadium, with a visiting team trying to pull off the upset, the fans on their feet, too nervous to cheer or boo, it seemed. Maybe we've seen too many ballparks with fans waving towels. Maybe we just haven't seen enough Game 5s or Game 7s in recent years. But this felt like the most pressure-filled October moment in a long time.

Swisher struck out on a 2-2, 96 mph fastball.

Tigers fans exhaled for the first time in 12 minutes.

Benoit had needed 23 pitches to get two outs. The Tigers still needed six more.

Tension? It was punishment for fans on both sides, 166 games of big wins, big home runs and big comebacks, all down to two innings of October baseball. This is why we watch those games when it's 48 degrees and drizzling in April, why we watch those 3-hour games that move slower than a slug in the sun, meaningless games against the Royals or Twins in June. To get here. To six more outs.

As Jeter stepped in with two outs and Brett Gardner on first base in the eighth, Benoit had thrown 36 pitches. He hadn't thrown 37 pitches in a game all season. You can't make that kind of stuff up. On Benoit's 37th pitch, Gardner took off, Jeter took his classic inside-out swing ... Don Kelly took a step or two back, that right-field wall at Yankee Stadium that seems like it was built for wiffleball looming just a few feet behind him ... it looked like it had a chance ... fans reaching over, trying to pull a Jeffrey Maier ... the ball dropping into Kelly's glove.

So of course it came down to Jose Valverde, the man who said the series wouldn't return to New York. All he had to do was retire Granderson, Cano and Rodriguez. The big pitch was a 3-2 fastball to Granderson that he popped up to left. Cano lined softly to center. A-Rod swung through a 94 mph fastball. Game over, Tigers move on, Yankees go home, A-Rod walks off to more boos, the fans not caring that he was playing with a bad knee or that he wasn't the only Yankee to come up short in this series.

* * * *

Three big moments in this game:

1. Home runs from Don Kelly and Delmon Young in the first inning. I criticized Jim Leyland for hitting Kelly second. As we say though: You gotta make the plays, and Don Kelly came through. Kudos.

2. Yanking Ivan Nova after two innings essentially forced Joe Girardi to use CC Sabathia. I didn't like the idea of using CC, and he didn't pitch well. He got four outs but gave up two hits, two walks and the run that proved to be the winning run. Of the 37 pitches he threw, just 19 were for strikes.

3. Yankees third-base coach Rob Thomson held up Rodriguez at third base on Jorge Posada's one-out single in the fourth. Rodriguez had reached the bag right as Austin Jackson picked up the ball. Jackson has a decent arm and threw out eight runners on the season. It probably would have been a bang-bang play, especially with Rodriguez not at 100 percent speed. Tough call for Thomson, but I think he made the right decision, not wanting to potentially ruin a big inning. Russell Martin popped out to first and Gardner fouled out to leave the bases loaded.

* * * *

During his postgame news conference, Leyland said it perfectly: "This will be a game I'll remember the rest of my life." He pointed out he's been on both sides of it. Asked about Kelly's home run, he said, "Sometimes things just work out for you." He then praised Kelly, said it couldn't have happened to a better kid and nearly got choked up, knowing that home run will be with Kelly for the rest of his life.

And that's October baseball. Unsung heroes, big strikeouts, big hits, tension, pain, suffering and ... joy.

And memories. Love the memories.

You can follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Breaking down AL postseason managers

September, 30, 2011
9/30/11
4:00
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Rays versus Rangers

The tactical matchup between Texas’ Ron Washington and Tampa Bay’s Joe Maddon figures to be a particularly interesting in-game chess match. That’s because both managers have so many moving parts in their lineups, making this a series where you’ll see in-game offensive tactics actively used to score, and not just in reaction to pitching changes.

True to his past track record, Maddon is one of the league’s more aggressive skippers with the running game, not simply in terms of stealing bases, but also ranking among the most likely managers to have his runners moving. Washington might appear relatively conventional in the aggregate, but he’s equally aggressive when he has Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler or Craig Gentry on base. Because both clubs run with those who can and don’t with everyone else, they rank close to the top in fewest outs made on the basepaths.

One thing that stands out is Maddon’s willingness to swap in pinch-hitters to mix and match with his two established platoons at catcher shortstop; no AL manager has come close to using as many pinch-hitters as Maddon (137 times). Maddon’s tactical aggressiveness on offense has been rewarded with a .382 OBP from his pinch-hitters, which reflects what he’s using them for: Not to drive runners in, but to create scoring opportunities.

Washington’s willingness to start Mike Napoli behind the plate should expand his opportunities to pinch-run with Gentry (or Endy Chavez) or Esteban German, not just for Napoli but also first baseman Mitch Moreland, with Napoli rotating out to first base; add in the decision to carry two backup catchers, and Washington will have plenty of opportunity to get tactical with the back end of his lineup if he needs to.

With Washington’s decision to lead off their series with lefties C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland on the mound, it’ll be especially interesting to see how Maddon employs right fielder Matt Joyce (.657 OPS vs. LHPs, .866 vs. RHPs) -- starting him locks him into a lineup position where he won’t be an asset early on, where bringing him in off the bench would be a key mid-game move. The roster decision to carry Jose Lobaton, Elliott Johnson and Sam Fuld instead of Justin Ruggiano or Brandon Guyer as possible platoon partners -- both slugged better than .550 vs. lefties at Triple-A Durham -- for Joyce could prove unfortunate.

Which brings us to bullpen usage, another area that should be interesting. One criticism of Washington from last October was his refusal to bring Neftali Feliz into games earlier than the ninth, but that was when he lacked for many alternatives. This year, Jon Daniels has supplied Washington and Feliz with a superb collection of set-up men, especially with the trades for Mike Adams and Koji Uehara, so that complaint isn’t going to be relevant this time around.

Maddon’s bullpen usage pattern stands out in stark contrast, but he’s worked wonders with the unlikely collection that Andrew Friedman assembled last winter. Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta make for an unconventional late-game tandem as is, but the Rays have used loose committee arrangements before. Maddon is the league’s most aggressive manager at pulling his relievers quickly but using them often -- Rays relievers average a league-low 15 pitches per game, and no AL manager used his relievers on consecutive days without rest more often than Maddon this year (112 times). That might sound like a recipe for burning out the bullpen, but with a rotation that goes deeper into games than any other in the league, it has proven sustainable.

One thing it would be surprising to see? Either manager ordering a pitchout, because Washington and Maddon were two of the three managers in the AL least likely to call for one, the other being Minnesota’s Ron Gardenhire.

Tigers vs. Yankees

Jim Leyland’s bid to win a World Series in two different leagues owes plenty to a certain consistency in how he runs a lineup and a pitching staff. On offense, Leyland does more with his lineup card than he exerts influence with in-game tactics. Part of that is a matter of the personnel he has on hand, and adapting to it. The Tigers don’t run much, but they don’t have many people to run with. He bunts a bit with key defenders like Austin Jackson and Ramon Santiago, but he isn’t nuts about it.

Instead, Leyland makes his impact through who plays, and when. He’s built productive platoons in the past, and his third-base combo of Wilson Betemit and Brandon Inge or his mixing and matching in right field are just the latest examples. Leyland has long been an active practitioner when it comes to employing defensive replacements, particularly in the outfield corners and at second base, usually as a matter of getting Magglio Ordonez’s glove off the field late in-game, and bringing in Santiago’s leather at the keystone, with superutility players Ryan Raburn and Don Kelly moving around as needed. Multi-positional bit parts like this are another Leyland staple -- remember John Wehner? -- long before seven-man bullpens made them appear necessary for everyone’s roster. It’s the sort of space-saving that affords carrying third catcher Omir Santos.

On the other hand, Leyland has adapted to the times, especially with his willingness to take starters out early. Where he used to have one of the slowest hooks in baseball, he’s much more conventional these days, although he still prefers to leave starters in past 110. He also been fairly conventional in his bullpen usage, not working anyone too hard or without rest especially often, but that’s given him an especially well-stocked pen in October, with closer Jose Valverde getting great support from both right- (Joaquin Benoit and Al Alburquerque) and left-handed set-up men (Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth). By including Brad Penny for long-relief chores, he also has the flexibility to pull a starter early if he feels the need -- another gambit that he’s been willing to resort to more often than most.

Joe Girardi’s not a manager with a ton of hands-on in-game signature moves on offense, but he hardly has to resort to them. If not for Leyland’s comparatively frenzied pace of bringing in defensive replacements, looking at aggregate numbers alone might make you think this is the one tendency you’d notice most frequently from Girardi, but it’s less about achieving a defensive advantage as it is about pulling his regulars out of games already handily won or thoroughly lost.

No manager in the postseason has used fewer lineups, and with the kind of offense the Yankees crank out, there’s not much need for tactical chicanery. He stills more than most, but that’s a function of setting Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson loose, but he has Eduardo Nunez available to use as a pinch-runner, and in the past Girardi’s proven willing to turn to speed off the bench.

What will be especially interesting to follow from the New York side of things is whether or not Girardi will show a quicker hook with his non-Sabathia starters than he did last year. That’s obviously on everyone’s radar when picking a post-season rotation after his ace has been cause for concern for months, but it’s especially relevant after last year’s “inning too far” from A.J. Burnett in Game Four of the ALCS, when few people present thought sending Burnett out to the mound for the sixth and a one-run lead was advisable.

With that in mind, it’s worth noting that in 2011 Girardi rates among the AL leaders in what Baseball Info Solutions’ “Slow Hooks” (calculated using pitches thrown and runs allowed, indexed against league average), but perhaps past experience will have some influence on his choices by the time Freddy Garcia’s start in the third game rolls around.

Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Corey Patterson was supposed to have many weekends like this one, games in which he’d be the best player on the field, a tantalizing mix of power, speed and defense. He had five hits on Saturday in Toronto’s 9-8 victory over the White Sox, including the game-winning home run in the 14th inning off Gavin Floyd, a low screamer that just cleared the fence in right field. It was just the seventh time in 30 years that a player had five hits and a walk-off home run in the same game. He added four more hits in Sunday’s 13-4 rout, including another home run.

Corey Patterson, super stud. A decade ago, this is the way it supposed to happen.

Before the 2000 season, Baseball America rated him the No. 3 prospect in baseball. The next year, he was moved up to No. 2, behind only another center fielder named Josh Hamilton. The glowing report in BA’s “2001 Prospect Handbook” read, in part: “He’s the best hitter, the fastest runner and top outfielder defender in the organization. His other two tools, power and arm strength, are both above-average. His top-of-the-line speed is probably his most impressive physical asset, and he has a chiseled physique with biceps that seems a couple of sizes too large for his 5-foot-10 frame.”

The Cubs rushed him through the majors and he debuted just a few weeks after his 21st birthday. They loved his makeup and work ethic. When the Cubs drafted Mark Prior in 2001, Cubs fans could envision the future: Patterson leading the offense, Prior leading the pitching, and pennants coming to Wrigley.

But baseball is a difficult sport. Athletic ability and tools aren’t always enough. Young talent disappoints as often as it surprises. That scouting report on Patterson hinted at a couple of problems: He had hit just .195 in the minors against left-handed pitching. His plate discipline needed improvement.

Those, indeed, would become his tragic flaws.

In his first full season in 2002, Dusty Baker entrusted him to the leadoff or No. 2 spot much of the season. Patterson hit .253 with 14 home runs in 153 games ... but with a strikeout/walk ratio of 142/19, leading to an abysmal .284 on-base percentage. (Dusty hasn’t yet met the speedy outfielder with the poor OBP he hasn’t loved to hit leadoff.) Patterson actually played better the next season, hitting .298 with 13 home runs, before a knee injured prematurely ended his season in July.

But that would be the highlight season of his Cubs career. After hitting .215/.254/.348 in 2005, he was traded to Baltimore for two minor leaguers. It just wasn’t going to work in Chicago, especially as Cubs fans booed him loudly and often during the ’05. season. "If he is not going to have a chance to be a full-time player, he is not going to be able to correct the things that led him to have a bad year last year," Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said at the time of the trade. "It was not a good fit for him to be a bench player here at this point.”

He played a little better with the Orioles over two seasons, but not enough for them to keep him when he became a free agent after the 2007 season. A year in Cincinnati -- under Dusty Baker -- didn’t go well. He spent most of 2009 in the minors, making brief appearances with the Nationals and Brewers. He signed a minor league contract for 2010 with the Mariners, but he exercised his option to opt out in spring training. The Orioles picked him up. He became a free agent again. He was a baseball vagabond, now 31 years old, still a good defensive center fielder, but scraping for jobs. He’s made more than $13 million in his major league career -- no tragedy there -- but this was a guy who was going to make $13 million per season.

So he signed with the Blue Jays over the winter for $900,000, making the team out of spring training in part thanks to an injury to Scott Podsednik. And here he is, hitting .301/.333/.477 after his nine-hit weekend, the best weekend of his baseball career. After sweeping the White Sox, the Blue Jays are above .500 and just 3.5 games out of first place in the AL East. Corey Patterson is a big reason why.

He’s unlikely to keep this up. He still swings at too many bad pitches -- 35 strikeouts, just nine walks. Entering Sunday, according to FanGraphs, he had swung at 37 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, a rate actually higher than his career rate. He hasn’t suddenly learned to recognize sliders off the plate. For his career, among outfielders with at least 4,000 career plate appearances, only Tony Armas has a lower career OBP.

But I’ll be rooting for him. Maybe he can keep this up for another four months and play exciting baseball for the Jays.

Baseball is like that. It’s a cruel sport. But it also offers plenty of redemption stories. Corey Patterson could have given up in 2009, his career in tatters in the minor leagues. But he stuck with it. Maybe 2011 will be the season Corey Patterson’s talent -- and not his flaws -- finally shine.

SERIES OF THE WEEK

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, Friday-Sunday

Friday: Ivan Nova (4-3, 4.67) vs. Jered Weaver (6-4, 2.10)
Saturday: CC Sabathia (6-3, 2.98) vs. Dan Haren (5-3, 2.29)
Sunday: Bartolo Colon (2-3, 3.77) vs. Ervin Santana (3-4, 3.95)

We’ve heard a lot about how the Yankees rotation has been better than expected. While that’s true, that’s not to be misinterpreted as thinking the Yankees’ rotation has been one of the best in the AL. Entering Sunday, it had the 10th-best ERA in the AL (4.04) and the 11th-best WHIP. Its ERA in May has been 4.00. The bullpen, even with Rafael Soriano and Pedro Feliciano now on the DL, has been excellent, with a 2.97 ERA. Keep an eye on David Robertson, who has 35 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings.

For the Angels, Weaver is due. After winning his first six starts, he’s gone winless in his past six -- even though he’s allowed one run over his last two outings. His season numbers remain superb, with a .197 average against, 0.95 WHIP and 77 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings.

PITCHING MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

James Shields (5-3, 2.15) vs. Felix Hernandez (5-4, 3.19), Rays at Mariners, Thursday

Somehow the Mariners are 26-26 and only 1.5 games out of first place, despite: (1) King Felix hasn’t really dominated yet; (2) Ichiro Suzuki is hitting just .272; (3) Chone Figgins, the No. 2 hitter, is even worse, at .193; (3) Jack Cust has one home run; (4) their cleanup hitters have combined for three home runs and a .219 average; (5) their left fielders are hitting .188; (6) their center fielders are hitting .193; (7) closer David Aardsma has been on the DL all season and his replacement, Brandon League, lost four games in one week. What does that have to do with the pitching matchup of the week? Nothing, I guess, other than I expect a big game from Hernandez.

THREE SWINGS

1. Justin Verlander’s 132nd and final pitch on Sunday night against Boston was clocked at 100 mph. OK, so it was ball four and put two runners on in the eighth inning, but was it was another strong effort from the Tigers’ ace. Joaquin Benoit got Dustin Pedroia to fly out to left to escape the jam and protect Detroit’s 2-0 lead. Jose Valverde got the save. Interesting that Jim Leyland used a pitcher with a 6.16 ERA to get the biggest out of the game. Valverde had thrown 24 pitches (and got the loss with a blown save) in the opening game of the doubleheader, so Leyland may have been reluctant to use him ... but then why bring him in for the ninth with a three-run lead? Ahh, yes, you manage to the save no matter what.

1. The Brewers are 8-2 over their past 10 games and Yovani Gallardo has been a big reason why. He’s won his past five starts after pitching eight shutout innings against the Giants on Sunday. After a lackluster April, he pitched 35 innings in May and allowed just 20 hits and five runs. He’s back on track and the Milwaukee rotation is starting to look scary. Yes, Zack Greinke has a 5.79 ERA through five starts, but with a 39/3 SO/BB ratio through 28 innings, that ERA will drop.

3. Poor John Danks. First, he was just unlucky. Now he’s just bad. One of baseball’s best lefties the past few seasons, he’s now 0-8 after getting ripped by Toronto. He threw 51 pitches in the first inning. In his past four starts he’s allowed 22 runs in 23 1/3 innings. Ozzie Guillen can rant and rave all he wants, but that’s not going to turn around Danks’ luck.

RANT OF THE WEEK

For some reason, Joe Girardi has fallen in love with the intentional walk. After issuing just two intentional free passes in April, he’s issued 15 in May. Many studies have been done on the intentional walk and they all say the same thing: It’s not a good strategy. It opens up big innings. Use it too much and you’re asking for trouble.

Initially this season, Girardi used it only when trailing. And it kept working. His first six freebies all resulted in no further damage. Three times this season he intentionally walked Boston's Dustin Pedroia to face Adrian Gonzalez, and it worked all three times. So maybe he started getting a little brazen.

On May 11, he had Luis Ayala walk Kansas City's Melky Cabrera to load the bases with one out to face Eric Hosmer in extra innings. Ayala throws a sinker, so he was setting up a double play, but he also ended up facing a better hitter. Hosmer hit a sacrifice fly that proved to be the game-winner.

And then came May 23 against Toronto. Tied 1-1 in the sixth, Corey Patterson doubled off Bartolo Colon to open the inning. Girardi then walked Jose Bautista. After a groundout advanced the runners, he had Colon walk Juan Rivera, hitting .228 at the time. Aaron Hill singled in one run, Eric Thames walked with the bases loaded and J.P. Arencibia hit a bases-clearing double. Girardi’s two free passes set up the big inning. Toronto won 7-3.

Saturday night in Seattle, Mariano Rivera had runners on second and third in the bottom of the 12th with one out. Franklin Gutierrez was up, Adam Kennedy on deck. Even though Gutierrez strikes out a lot, Girardi walked him to bring up Kennedy (who had grounded into one double play all season), who singled in the winning run.

Keep it up, Joe. You’re playing with fire. By the way, Terry Francona has issued four intentional walks.

PHOTO OF THE DAY
Daniel DescalsoAndrew Carpenean/US PresswireThink Rockies fans got a little excited when Daniel Descalso couldn't hang on to a ninth-inning popup?

AL East: Ranking organizational leadership

March, 1, 2011
3/01/11
2:30
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Organizational leadership is a key to success in any business.

In an effort to rank the management of the five American League East teams, we will breakdown and grade each of the owners, GMs and managers in the division. Each category will be graded against their peers, and a composite score will be totaled. The highest ranking in a given category will receive five points, while the worst will receive one point.

Certainly this is a topic that very well could require 2,000 or more words to discuss, but I've consolidated it for the SweetSpot.

Owner: Hank Steinbrenner | AL East rank: 2nd | Points: 4
The mighty, mighty Steinbrenners. First it was George and now it's Hank. He possesses an unrelenting desire to win and a giant piggy bank to draw from. Demonstrates little restraint and is always trying to capture the next ring. It's hard to argue with that attitude from your owner, even when emotions go wild in the Bronx, leading to irrational decisions.

General manager: Brian Cashman | Rank: 3rd | Points: 3

He has won four World Series in his time as GM, but three of them you can probably credit to Gene Michael. Has been willing to let impact players walk and is not always in sync with ownership. Cashman has a blank check and a lot of expensive hits and misses on his résumé. Would you rank him higher or lower? I'm split.

Manager: Joe Girardi | Rank: 3rd | Points: 3

He has one pennant and one World Series title in three years as a manager of the Yankees, but many feel the team won it in spite of him. Girardi's a former catcher and previously won Manager of the Year in 2006 while with the Florida Marlins. Sometimes makes questionable in-game moves, particularly with the bullpen.

Yankees' composite score: 10 points


Owner: Rogers Communications | Rank: 5th | Points: 1
Rogers has caught the drift. Get out of the way of baseball operations. Nitpicky ownership saddled the team during the J.P. Riccardi era while trying to build up "sports content." Things are better with Alex Anthopoulos, but this ownership group still ranks dead last in the AL East.

General manager: Alex Anthopoulos | Rank: 4th | Points: 2
Possibly the best young GM in baseball. Being the fourth-best best GM in the AL East is a tough draw. Brokered the "Doc Deal" netting huge prospects and somehow jettisoned the Vernon Wells albatross of a contract. Built a highly skilled team with younger players and fewer long-term deals. His trades have revamped the organization and positioned the team to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees in the short term.

Manager: John Farrell | Rank: Incomplete | Points: Incomplete

He has the skills and makeup to be incredibly successful. Was considered at one point to be on a management path, but will now lead the Blue Jays in a difficult division -- albeit one he knows well. Check back in October for a grade.

Blue Jays' composite score: 3 points*


Owner: Peter Angelos | Rank: 4th | Points: 2
He's not the most popular owner in the world, and some even consider him the worst owner in baseball. The Orioles haven't been to a World Series since 1983 and have barely made a murmur in the past 15 seasons. Angelos spent a little dough on some "name" hitters this offseason, but is pretty content with just being old and rich.

General manager: Andy McPhail | Rank: 5th: Points: 1
Tread lightly here. His owner is a frugal 81-year-old man who just recently allowed McPhail to go out and get some "big" bats. McPhail has had the deck stacked against him, and he's also up against some other great GMs. He does own two World Series rings while with the Minnesota Twins.

Manager: Buck Showalter | Rank: 4th | Points: 2
He's a career .517 manager who led the Orioles to a 34-23 record last season. Showalter is an old-school coach with mixed results in previous stints with the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Rangers. He has set a new tone in Baltimore with early and positive results. Jury is still out on the Orioles, though.

Orioles' composite score: 5 points


Owner: John Henry & Co. | Rank: 1st | Points: 5
Class act, second-to-none owners who have been front and center since their acquisition of the Red Sox. Henry and the ownership group brought two titles (2004, '07) to Boston and have invested heavily in the organization while developing the farm, improving Fenway Park and allowing baseball operations to do its job. MLB's model ownership group is committed to all aspects of franchise ownership.

General manager: Theo Epstein | Rank: 1st | Points: 5

He came along in 2004 and delivered the first World Series to Boston in 86 years. Since then, Epstein has secured another title and developed one of the best farm systems in baseball. Plays big market "Moneyball" and perennially has made the team competitive and flexible.

Manager: Terry Francona | Rank: 2nd | Points: 4
He has managed to win two titles in Boston, with five 95-win seasons in his seven years. He is a players' coach with a head for the modern game and might be the best in team history. Despite that, he is still referred to at times as "Francoma" for questionable decisions, particularly with his bullpen.

Red Sox's composite score: 14 points


Owner: Stuart Sternberg | Rank: 3rd | Points: 3
He is a guy who some call a "carpetbagger." Others praise him for creating success under limited budgets. Is the attendance issue his fault? Time to move the team perhaps? He has rebranded the (Devil) Rays and brought in superior baseball minds. Sternberg splits the list at No. 3.

General manager: Andrew Friedman | Rank: 2nd | Points: 4
Nobody does more with less than him -- except maybe Billy Beane. Friedman has built a fantastic farm system and exploited market inefficiencies to create a club that competes with baseball's conglomerates. Tampa Bay won the AL East division on a 2010 Opening Day payroll of about $73 million. Friedman just needs some hardware.

Manager: Joe Maddon | Rank: 1st | Points: 5
He might be the best manager in all of baseball. Maddon is instinctive, can extract maximum value from players, understands and implements advanced metrics (maybe to a fault), and has unwavering support from his players.

Rays' composite score: 12 points


Overall AL East ranking:
1. Boston (14 points)

2. Tampa Bay (12 points)

3. New York (10 points)

4. Baltimore (5 points)

5. Toronto (3 points*)

(*score incomplete due to first-year manager John Farrell)

So there you have it. The Red Sox have the highest-rated organizational leadership in the AL East. It comes as no surprise to us in the Boston area, but can it lead the Red Sox to their third World Series in eight seasons?

Darryl Johnston contributes to Fire Brand of the American League, a blog about the Boston Red Sox. You can follow him on Twitter.

Is Russ Martin the new Joe Girardi?

December, 15, 2010
12/15/10
10:10
AM ET
This Tweet from Ken Davidoff really gets to the heart of things, doesn't it?
    Yankees signed Russell Martin with his versatility in mind. Can help out at 3B, 1B, in addition to C. But Girardi values experience at C.
Jorge Posada was blessed with Hall of Fame talents, and developed Hall of Fame skills.

Nevertheless, he might not wind up in the Hall of Fame. If he doesn't, it'll be largely because he didn't start more than 109 games in a season until he was 29 years old. As I'm sure you know, that's exceptionally old for a player with Posada's talents and skills.

Posada's manager, a fellow named Joe Torre valued experience at C, though. And Torre's favorite experienced C was a fellow named Joe Girardi.

From 1996 through 1999 -- years during which Jorge Posada could have been the Yankees' regular catcher, and on most teams would have been -- Joe Girardi played 379 games and posted a .317 on-base percentage.

Did Girardi play too often, and Posada not often enough?

The Yankees did win three World Series in those four years. And it's probably not a real stretch to suggest that Posada's exceptional longevity as a potent hitter might be related to the relative lack of punishment his body took in those first few years of his career.

I'm not saying that Jorge Posada should have played more then, or that Jesus Montero should play more now.

I'm saying that it's not hard to understand why Joe Girardi would be happy to have Russ Martin aboard.

To be 'right,' Girardi has to win

November, 4, 2009
11/04/09
5:51
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Mike Lupica on the risks that Joe Girardi just keeps taking:
    There are still a lot of smart, passionate, grudge-holding Yankee fans who want to talk about all the pitching mistakes that Joe Torre made when the Red Sox started to come back on the Yankees in 2004. But when Torre came home in that American League Championship Series, the way Girardi's Yankees come home now, here were Torre's starters:

    Jon Lieber, Game 6.

    Kevin Brown, Game 7.

    Girardi? He has the winningest starter in postseason history tonight in Pettitte, his ace Sabathia waiting in the wings if the Phillies make it to tomorrow night. Of course both are going on three days' rest because the Yankees have only three starters they trust, at a time when the only other pitcher Girardi really trusts is the great Mariano Rivera. By now everybody knows that the last team to win a World Series going with just three starters was the '91 Twins.

    Josh Beckett went on three days' rest in Game 6 of the 2003 Series, Marlins against the Yankees. Everybody screamed that Jack McKeon was making a huge mistake, that he should wait and pitch Beckett on full rest in Game 7 if it came to that. The Marlins manager went all in with Beckett and he pitched one of the most dominating close-out games in the history of the World Series.

    He made McKeon right because he won.

    --snip--

    Girardi plays things his way to the end and good for him. He still has the better team in this Series. Burnett getting pounded doesn't change that. The Yankees should win it all tonight. Then the manager's right. Better be right.

I think Lupica's right. I think Girardi had better be right.

If he's not right -- that is, if the Yankees lose because Pettitte and Sabathia both got hammered -- his job probably won't be in danger. After all, it's far from obvious what else he might have done. Chad Gaudin has thrown exactly 42 pitches in real competition since September. Maybe that's Girardi's fault, but again it's far from obvious what else he might have done. The Yankees certainly didn't need Gaudin to start in the Division or League Championship Series, and while Girardi presumably could have gotten Gaudin another inning or three of relief work along the way, that wouldn't change today's equation.

But nobody ever wants to do that, presumably because it's so bloody unorthodox. Sure, you can get away with it in the middle of the summer, particularly if you've got to play two games in one day. But if you try it in the World Series, the media will murder you before the game and they'll really murder you if you lose.

Of course, Girardi's setting himself up to get murdered anyway. Any time you do something unorthodox and lose, the media will kill you. If that does happen, may I suggest a line of attack? When Jack McKeon started Josh Beckett on short rest six years ago, he looked at Beckett and thought, "This pitcher can do this thing."

Girardi, on the other hand, looked at his three starters and thought, "All of these pitchers can do this thing.

Girardi might be absolutely right. There are certainly a lot of old-timers who think that every starting pitcher should be able to fare quite well after just three days of rest (and if they don't, it's all in their baby heads).

But we can't know if Girardi is right. We can only know if it works. Which is why those two theoretically disparate things become, in the end, the same.

Swisher out, Hairston Jr. in

October, 29, 2009
10/29/09
7:22
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So, Joe Girardi's given in to the pressure: Nick Swisher's out. And who's in? Read it and weep, Yankee faithful:
    Jerry Hairston Jr. replaced Swisher in right and was batting seventh. Hairston is 10 for 27 in his career against Phillies starter Pedro Martinez, but hasn't faced him since 2004. It also was Hairston's first start in right since July 21.

    "He's had a lot of success off of Pedro," Girardi said. "We also like the way they kind of match up against each other, and that kind of shows up in the numbers."

    Swisher went 0 for 3 in New York's 6-1 loss in Wednesday night's World Series opener. He is batting .114, with no homers and 12 strikeouts in the postseason.

I've been defending Girardi for most of the last two seasons. Mostly because everybody else has been ripping him, but also because he plays chess and seems like a reasonable sort of fellow.

I'm having a tough time with this one, though. Unless Swisher's injured, there's simply no good reason to bench him for Hairston. Those 10 hits Hairston has against Pedro? Three of them were ground-balls singles; none of them were home runs. Granted, not many hitters have managed a .370 batting average against Pedro, whether with power or not. On the other hand, we're talking about only 10 hits, all of which happened more than five years ago.

Hairston's never really been a good hitter, and now he's an old non-good hitter. He's also a right-handed hitter, and yet Girardi's starting him in right field instead of the left-handed-hitting Brett Gardner, who also runs better than Hairston.

Joe Girardi can talk all he wants about match-ups, but there's something to be said for performance. But if Hairston doesn't do anything tonight and the Yankees lose, the second-guessers will have a field day. Not to mention the first-guessers.

Update: Here's one of those first-guessers I was talking about.

Yankees set roster

October, 28, 2009
10/28/09
2:45
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Joe Girardi still hasn't given us any inkling of who will start Game 4, but at least we've finally got the Yankees' roster.

Off: Francisco Cervelli and Freddy Guzman
On: Eric Hinske and Brian Bruney

Makes sense to me. Especially if LoHud's Sam Borden is right:
    Dropping Cervelli indicates the Yankees may be scrapping the A.J. Burnett/Jose Molina pairing, and sticking with Jorge Posada behind the plate in every game. Adding Hinske makes perfect sense because pinch-hitters will be needed in the NL park when pitchers have to bat.

    --snip--

    With the potential for short-rest starts (and thus, potentially shorter starts) in the World Series, an extra arm in the bullpen is more valuable to the Yankees than a third catcher.
Carrying a third catcher usually is foolish, and the Yankees obviously will need an extra bat (Hinske) when they're playing by National League rules. Guzman was useful almost purely as a pinch-runner, and pinch-runner is the first thing to go when you're making a list of priorities. One does wonder if Girardi really needs a nine-man bullpen -- assuming that three men do all the starting -- but considering those short-rest starts, it probably can't hurt. Unfortunately, having more relievers probably will mean more pitching changes, which will mean -- if the bullpen blows a lead or three -- more indictments of Girardi's "overmanaging." Really, the only way he can win ... is to win. Same as always.

Figuring Yankee rotation

October, 27, 2009
10/27/09
3:28
AM ET
With the world still awaiting the puffs of smoke that will signal Joe Girardi's intentions regarding his starting pitchers in the World Series, Dan Rosenheck offers his well-reasoned (as usual) advice:
    The critical question for Girardi is how to make the most use of CC Sabathia’s apparent indestructibility. Is he more valuable as a classic rotation workhorse, starting Games 1 and then 4 and 7, if necessary, on three days’ rest, or as a swingman, taking his regular turn in Games 1 and 5 and relieving in any number of other contests?

    --snip--

    Howard, in particular, has a large platoon split: over his career, he has hit righties as if he were Lou Gehrig and lefties as if he were Lou Merloni. Moreover, using Sabathia as a full-time starter is an advantage only if the series goes a full seven games, while bringing him out of the bullpen guarantees the Yankees will get extra value out of him, making it less likely that the series will be extended that far in the first place. On the other hand, there’s no doubt that New York can get more innings out of Sabathia in a seven-game affair by keeping him exclusively in the rotation, and it is hard to quibble with the logic that you want your best hurler throwing the highest percentage of your potential innings that you can get.

    Given the uncertainty surrounding the choice, Girardi’s best bet is probably to be flexible. If the Yankees are, say, leading by a run or tied in the seventh inning, with two men on base and Utley coming to bat, well, it’s time to bring in the big fella. By contrast, if there is no situation that screams out for Sabathia’s usage -- and if the first few games are split, making a Game 7 much more likely -- Girardi will be better off keeping his ace in reserve.

That sounds nifty, but I wonder if any manager in the history of ever has gone into a World Series with such flexibility.

No, I'm sure that many of them have. Just not in the last few decades. My guess is that Girardi will announce, any moment now, that 1) Sabathia will start Games 1, 4 and (if necessary) 7, and that both A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte will make their second Series starts on short rest. Like this:

10/28 -- Sabathia
10/29 -- Burnett
10/30 -- off
10/31 -- Pettitte
11/ 1 -- Sabathia
11/ 2 -- Burnett
11/ 3 -- off
11/ 4 -- Pettitte
11/ 5 -- Sabathia

Which would be, though not as radical as holding Sabathia in reserve, still pretty radical. I don't know how often managers enter a World Series figuring on four short-rest starts, but I don't believe it's happened much lately.

The only real alternative -- assuming Sabathia's going to start three times -- would be Chad Gaudin in Game 5, but does Girardi believe that Gaudin on roughly a month's rest is better than Pettitte on three days? I've probably made this recommendation a few dozen times over the years, but if there's any question about Pettitte's stamina on short rest, Girardi should simply tell him that he would be thrilled with six strong innings; after that, the bullpen's got it covered.

As for having enough lefty relief against the lefty-heavy Phillies, Phil Coke's got phenomenal numbers against left-handed hitters in his young career, holding them to a .197/.221/.349 line. Damaso Marte was, of course, shaky in limited action this season, but coincidentally he's also held lefty batters to a .197 batting average during his career.

Toss in the salient facts that 1) Mariano Rivera kills lefties, and 2) two of the Yankees' three starters are southpaws, and I would guess that few teams in the majors are better equipped than the Yankees to neutralize a lefty-heavy lineup. Rosenheck's idea is radical, and I love radical ideas. I just don't believe that radical is necessary in this particular case.

Yanks win despite manager

October, 26, 2009
10/26/09
12:17
PM ET
Mike Celizic joins a chorus of pundits wondering how a control freak like Joe Girardi could possibly have managed his team to within four wins of a baseball championship. Granted, it does help that Girardi's got some pretty good players. But does he really deserve this?
 Girardi
    Not that it’s that hard to manage the Yankees. Fill in the line-up with some of the best players in the game and figure out which pitchers to use to get to the ninth inning and Rivera. While you’re doing it, don’t wear out Rivera.

    That’s pretty much it. It’s true that Joe Torre, Girardi’s predecessor and the winner of four titles, first invented that formula and then mucked it up. Torre’s sin, repeated like an annoying habit for the last five or six years of his reign, was to overuse Rivera.

    Year after year, by the time the playoffs arrived, Torre had worn out the one player he needed to win a championship. For good measure, Torre burned out any other reliever he had laying around who made the mistake of pitching too well for too long.
Torre's sins might have been many, but wearing out Mariano Rivera probably wasn't one of them.

But if Celizic is right, the manifestation of that wearing out would be, what?

Using him so much in the first five months of the season that he wasn't able to pitch well down the stretch? Well, even if that happened, it didn't matter; Torre's Yankees finished in first place every season.

Using him so much in the first six months of the season that he wasn't able to pitch well in the seventh month? As you probably know, the Yankees last won a World Series in 2001. Over the next six years, Rivera pitched 38 innings in 24 postseason games. In those 38 innings, he gave up 20 hits, four walks, and three runs. His ERA in those 38 innings: 0.70.

The problem for Celizic, and for that matter anyone else trying to explain the Yankees' postseason failures, is that there's really nothing tangible to latch on to. Sure, we can go back and nitpick here or there -- I think Torre should have used Rivera in an extra-innings game in 2002, and I think he should handled Alex Rodriguez differently in 200X -- but would any of those things have made a difference?

Probably not. For the most part, at this time of the year all a manager can do is wind up his players and send them off to battle like little tin soldiers. Maybe Girardi really has been guilty of overmanaging; if so, he's overmanaged his team to the World Series and lost only two games along the way. I suspect that a lot of teams would love to be overmanaged so well.
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