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Will the Boston Red Sox win another game this season? This was one of the debates on Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast as I was joined by SweetSpot blogger/editor David Schoenfield. We also heard from producer Jay Soderberg and the awesome bias cat!

1. The Red Sox are struggling, but didn’t this happen last year as well? Dave and I preach patience.

2. Former Boston star Johnny Damon is back in the news, and he might have found a new home. Is it a good fit?

3. Josh Johnson and Tim Lincecum each struggled on Wednesday, but which ace worries us more?

4. Speaking of aces, Jamie Moyer is on the mound Thursday against a foe that wasn’t born when Jamie made his big league debut. I love stats like that. What are realistic expectations for Moyer?

5. Our emailers need answers about Ruben Tejada, Joe Nathan and why an RBI groundout can hurt a player’s batting average.

So download and listen to Thursday’s memorable Baseball Today podcast, because this Schoenfield kid and me, we’ve got synergy.

This exercise has no scientific value whatsoever. But it's fun. Let's go position by position and see whether the Texas Rangers or Los Angeles Angels rate higher. For the purpose of this discussion, we'll assume the Rangers will sign Yu Darvish.

Catcher: Mike Napoli vs. Chris Iannetta

Here's the thing about Napoli: He actually hit better on the road in 2011, so his monster season wasn't just a result of changing to a better park. After hitting .187 through May 27, Napoli finished at .232 in the first half and crushed the ball after the All-Star break, hitting .383/.466/.706 (wait, why was he batting eighth in the World Series?). Napoli cut his strikeout rate over 7 percent from 2010 and increased his walk rate. He did have a .344 average on balls in play compared to his career mark of .303, even though his line-drive percentage was only 1 percent higher, so some regression is no doubt in order. Still, his booming bat makes this a clear selection. Advantage: Rangers.

First base: Mitch Moreland vs. Albert Pujols

Moreland had a disappointing sophomore season, although he played through a wrist injury that required surgery in November. He also requires a platoon partner against left-handers. He does, however, ground into fewer double plays than Pujols. OK, I managed to write one paragraph attempting to compare Mitch Moreland to Albert Pujols. Advantage: Angels.

Second base: Ian Kinsler vs. Howie Kendrick

Kinsler hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases in 34 attempts and turned the double play as pretty as anybody in the game . Kendrick had his best season with that bat and with the glove, with the defensive metrics giving him an outstanding rating. Overall, FanGraphs.com rated Kinsler as the sixth most valuable position player in the majors in 2011, and Kendrick 18th. Now, I don't believe Kinsler is the sixth-best player in baseball and the big argument against that is he hit just .214 on the road and owns a career average 67 points higher at home. It would be interesting to see Kendrick hitting at Rangers Ballpark. Still, Kinsler's power, defense and speed gives him the edge. Advantage: Rangers.

Third base: Adrian Beltre vs. Alberto Callaspo

You could probably dig up enough numbers to make this an interesting argument. For example, Callaspo had the higher on-base percentage in 2011, .366 to .331. Callaspo hit .309/.368/.436 on the road in 2011 while Beltre hit .271/.297/.440. But let's not get too silly here. Advantage: Rangers.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Erick Aybar

This is one probably closer than you think. Or maybe not. But it does show Andrus' level of national exposure is pretty high for a guy who hit five home runs and made 25 errors. Andrus led in FanGraphs' WAR, 4.5 to 4.0, while Aybar led in Baseball-Reference WAR, 4.7 to 3.5. Andrus has the better range and on-base skills and is one of the best baserunners in the league, but his lack of power helps tilt the comparison toward Aybar. Andrus did increase his extra-base hits from 18 to 35 and he just turned 23, so maybe that slight increase in doubles power is arriving. Aybar had an excellent 2009, a poor 2010 and a solid 2011. Both are good players. A close call, but I like Andrus' chances of raising his game a bit in 2012. Advantage: Rangers.

Left field: David Murphy vs. Vernon Wells

Murphy wasn't actually very good in 2011. But he was better than Wells. (In fact, for all the talk about the Rangers going after Prince Fielder to upgrade first base, why no talk about upgrading left field?) Of course, they could slide Josh Hamilton to left if Leonys Martin is ready for center, but Martin seems ticketed for at least half a season in Triple-A. Advantage: Rangers.

Center field: Josh Hamilton vs. Peter Bourjos

Here's the deal: If the Rangers called up the Angels and said, "We'll offer you Hamilton for Bourjos," who hangs up first? Certainly, if you consider the contracts of each, the Angels hang up. But what if we ignore the financial circumstances? What do the Angels say? You have a supreme flychaser in Bourjos who had a solid year with the bat in his first full season. Hamilton was awesome in his 2010 MVP season, but his OBP in 2009 was .315 and in 2011 it was .346, hardly sterling figures for playing in a hitter's paradise. And he's injury prone. In fact, both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference rated Bourjos as the better player in 2011. And, no, that's not because he played more often -- Bourjos only had 14 more plate appearances. Hamilton had only 12 more extra-base hits and drew only seven more walks. He outhit Bourjos .298 to .271. Hamilton was better at the plate, but not by a large margin. Anyway, I give Hamilton the edge since Bourjos has to prove he can do this again and Hamilton's mammoth 2010 still buzzes our memories. Advantage: Rangers

Right field: Nelson Cruz vs. Torii Hunter

Cruz is another example of why the Texas lineup is a bit overrated: He posted a .312 OBP in 2011, which placed him 112th out of 148 regulars with 500 plate appearances. Now, when he gets hot -- as we saw in the ALCS -- he can be unstoppable, but when he's off he'll chase pitchers out of the zone. His career season in 2010 appears fueled by a higher than normal .348 average on balls in play. While he has a strong arm, Rangers fans unfortunately saw his lack of range on display in Game 6 of the World Series. Hunter, on the hand, is getting old and didn't hit right-handers very well in 2011. Still, his .313 OBP against righties was higher than Cruz's season total. Factor in Hunter's durability and defense and Cruz's annual aches and pains, and I'll go Hunter. Advantage: Angels.

Designated hitter: Michael Young vs. Mark Trumbo

Hey, it's 2011's two most overrated players! Advantage: Rangers. Although I'd like to see home many home runs Trumbo could hit in Arlington.

Bench: Yorvit Torrealba/Craig Gentry/Julio Borbon vs. Hank Conger/Maicer Izturis/Bobby Abreu/Kendrys Morales

Big edge here to the Angels. And while the Rangers have Martin on the horizon, the Angels can counter with Mike Trout. Advantage: Angels.

No. 1 starter: Yu Darvish vs. Jered Weaver

Weaver has been one of baseball's top 10 starters the past two seasons. Darvish may be good, but as good as Weaver? That's expecting a lot. Advantage: Angels.

No. 2 starter: Matt Harrison vs. Dan Haren

The ERA difference between the two was small -- Harrison's 3.39 versus Haren's 3.17, and once you factor in the home parks, Harrison actually had the better adjusted ERA. On the other hand, Haren had a 192/33 strikeout/walk ratio compared to Harrison's 126/57. While he benefits from being in the perfect park for him, we have to go with Haren's proven record of success and durability. Advantage: Angels.

No. 3 starter: Derek Holland vs. C.J. Wilson

Wilson had a 2.31 ERA on the road in 2011. Don't be surprised if he contends for the Cy Young Award in 2012. Advantage: Angels.

No. 4 starter: Colby Lewis vs. Ervin Santana

Unlike Haren, as a flyball pitcher Lewis is probably in the worst park for him. He gave up 35 home runs in 2011, and 23 of those came at home. On the road, he went 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA. The underlying results of the two are pretty similar, although Santana has better stuff. I get the feeling that if you switched parks, they'd post each other's numbers. Advantage: Draw.

No. 5 starter: Neftali Feliz vs. Jerome Williams

In his first promotion to the majors in 2009, Feliz averaged 11.3 K's per nine with a 4.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 2010, those numbers fell to 9.2 and 3.94. In 2011, they fell again, to 7.8 and 4.3. Why is he getting worse? Will a move to the rotation help? Did he throw his fastball too much? Will he recover from blowing the clinching game of the World Series? All intriguing questions without answers to be determined. Jerome Williams -- yes, the kid who came up with the Giants in 2003 when he was just 21 -- is still just 30 years old. He made it back to the majors after beginning the year in independent ball. Advantage: Rangers.

Closer: Joe Nathan vs. Jordan Walden

From June 28 on, Nathan pitched 28 innings, allowed a .190 average and struck out 28 batters with just five walks. You can't read too much into 28 innings, but it's a good sign that it just took him some time to recover from Tommy John surgery. Walden led the majors with 10 blown saves, but his underlying numbers were all strong. I love his power fastball and with a little better command, he should be dynamite. Advantage: Angels.

Bullpen: Alexi Ogando/Mike Adams/Koji Uehara/Scott Feldman/Mark Lowe vs. Scott Downs/LaTroy Hawkins/Hisanori Takayashi/Rich Thompson/Bobby Cassevah

With Ogando apparently slated to move back to the pen and a full season from Adams, the Rangers' pen looks deep although it currently lacks a reliable left-hander. Advantage: Rangers.

Manager: Ron Washington vs. Mike Scioscia

It's hard to give Washington the edge after his postseason performance. On the other hand, Scioscia gave Wells 500 at-bats. Advantage: Draw.

The final score: Rangers win 9-7 with two draws. But if the Angels do the same thing and ignore Wells' fat salary and play Mike Trout in left field, that would give them the edge there and even our score at 8-8. In other words, how many days until Opening Day?

It's not in Nolan Ryan's nature to give in.

Throw a 3-2 fastball down the middle of the plate? No way. Let up on his fastball -- just a little -- to throw a few more strikes? Are you kidding? He was not going to give in to a hitter. Ever. It's why he walked more batters than any pitcher in the history of the game, as many as 204 in a season.

Surrender to the ravages of time? No way. Keep firing fastballs, riding the exercise bike, lifting weights, staying strong ... and lead the National League in ERA at age 40, throw a no-hitter at 43, another at 44 and pitch until you're 46.

When Rangers manager Ron Washington admitted to cocaine use? Stand by the guy you believe in, not giving in to the pressure to fire him.

And this is why the Texas Rangers will win the right to negotiate with Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish.

The Los Angeles Angels have signed Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. The Rangers have a countermove to make. It's Nolan Ryan, after all. He's not going to let the Angels dig in and get that final pitch down the middle.

Now, of course, there's no guarantee the Rangers will get Darvish. The bidding process -- which ends Wednesday night at 5 p.m. ET -- allows teams to submit bids to negotiate with Darvish. The highest bidder then has 30 days to sign him. When the Red Sox won the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka after the 2006 season, they paid $51.1 million to win the bid and then signed Matsuzaka to a six-year, $52 million contract. The same winter, the Yankees paid $26 million to negotiate with Kei Igawa.

Estimates to win the rights to the 25-year-old Darvish have ranged from $30 million to $70 million, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo. The performances of Matsuzaka (mediocre, nibbled too much, couldn't go deep into games) and Igawa (horrible) will perhaps make some teams hesitant to pay a small fortune just to negotiate with a player who may have a preference to sign with a West Coast team -- if he signs at all. There is no guarantee that will even happen, as Darvish apparently doesn't have a burning desire to prove himself in America like Hideki Matsui or Ichiro Suzuki did. Darvish is already the highest-paid player in Japan.

Those who have seen Darvish say he can be a No. 1 pitcher over here. Mets manager Terry Collins, who managed against Darvish in Japan, raved about him at the winter meetings. Davey Johnson has also managed against him and called him a "big, strong hard-thrower. Throws a lot like Americans. ... That guy is going to be expensive," he said at the winter meetings.

In his final two years in Japan, Matsuzaka's numbers read 401.1 innings, 310 hits, 83 walks and 426 strikeouts. If anything, Darvish has been even more dominant; in the past two seasons, he's pitched 434 innings with 314 hits, 83 walks and 498 strikeouts. But Matsuzaka's fastball never seemed to have the same life that he displayed in the 2006 World Baseball Classic, and he often appeared afraid to challenge hitters over here, leading to high walk rates and inconsistent performance.

If there is a concern about Darvish, it's that he's pitched a lot of innings at a young age. He turned 25 in August but has already compiled four seasons of 200-plus innings in Japan, the first coming when he was 20. Former Royals manager Trey Hillman, who managed Darvish in Japan, says Darvish would be able to handle the pressure of coming to America better than Matsuzaka. "He's a totally different person," Hillman told USA Today's Paul White. "He gets it, and it doesn't faze him in the least."

That circles us back to the Rangers. They've lost Wilson, their best starter the past two seasons, to their division rival. The signing of Joe Nathan likely prompts a move of Neftali Feliz to the rotation -- giving the club five starters in Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando and Feliz, with Scott Feldman also hanging around. It's a good rotation. Solid.

But Nolan Ryan wants more than solid. The Rangers came within a strike of winning the World Series in 2011, even though their starters pitched into the seventh inning just four times in 17 postseason games. He needs a No. 1. They can sign Darvish and move Ogando back to the bullpen, where he profiles as a dominant setup man to Nathan.

Maybe Ryan will fool us. Maybe he and general manager Jon Daniels are happy with their current rotation. Maybe the Rangers really won't spend any big money this offseason, letting Wilson go and passing on Prince Fielder, whose left-handed bat profiles perfectly in the middle of the righty-heavy Rangers lineup.

Maybe. But that's not the way Nolan Ryan usually pitches.

The American League Central may have a reputation as baseball's skinflint division, but such is not the case: The White Sox, Twins and Tigers each had payrolls over $100 million in 2011 and ranked in the top 10 of highest-salaried ballclubs.

The problem was that two of those three teams didn't get much for their money. Considering the issues in Chicago and Minnesota, and the youth and unwillingness to spend big in Cleveland and Kansas City, Detroit will enter 2012 as the heavy favorite to win the division -- no matter what happens in the offseason. But even the Tigers are far from a sure thing and if the Indians can get good health from Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore in 2012, plus strong seasons from youngsters Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall, their offense could be dramatically improved.

But that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's a quick look at some action plans and items of interest for the five teams.

Detroit Tigers

1. Third base (Brandon Inge)

With Inge plummeting to a .197 average, Detroit's third-base production was among the worst in the majors. The team has already been linked to free agent Aramis Ramirez and trade discussions with Angels on Maicer Izturis. Both would be big upgrades over Inge, who still has one year remaining on his contract. The dark horse possibility: With Carlos Guillen ($13 million) and Magglio Ordonez ($10 million) off the books, the Tigers pursue Jose Reyes to fill their leadoff void, moving Jhonny Peralta to third base.

Likely solution: As much I love the Reyes idea, Ramirez to Detroit seems like a logical fit. The negatives are Ramirez's lack of range and Detroit's need for a little more athleticism in the lineup.



2. Middle relief

By the postseason, Jim Leyland was down to two relievers he trusted: Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit. Al Alburquerque had a strong rookie season out of nowhere and Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth provide rare power lefty arms, but Albuquerque and Schlereth still have trouble throwing strikes. The Tigers could go after a low-cost veteran like LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Gonzalez or Darren Oliver, or maybe make a trade pitch for White Sox lefty Matt Thornton, although it seems unlikely Chicago would trade Thornton to a division rival.

Likely solution: A veteran righty-hander, with the Tigers counting on improvement from Coke and Schlereth.

3. A left-handed bat.

The Tigers missed Brennan Boesch's stick in the playoffs, as Victor Martinez and the hobbled Alex Avila were the only threats from the left side (granted, Don Kelly hit a big home run). Boesch's return will help, but Detroit could use a lefty bat to help balance out the lineup.

Likely solution: Andy Dirks may given another shot at that third/fourth outfielder job after hitting .251/.296/.406 as a rookie. But what about Rockies left fielder Seth Smith, who is on the trade block? His career .518 slugging percentage against righties has been bolstered a bit by Coors Field, but he's a solid hitter who could platoon with Ryan Raburn in left, or allow Raburn to play some at second base.

Cleveland Indians

1. Find a left fielder who can hit.

Michael Brantley is a decent asset -- but as a center fielder. The plan to use Brantley as an everyday left fielder was never a great one to begin with, as he's never going to pop many balls over the fence. Brantley, Austin Kearns, Shelley Duncan and Travis Buck all started at least 20 games in left; Jared Head started six games there. As a group, Cleveland's left fielders hit a miserable .233 with seven home runs; only Baltimore and Minnesota received a lower OPS from their left fielders.

Likely solution: Signing Grady Sizemore doesn't necessarily push Brantley back to a starting role in left field. He's best used as a fourth outfielder and Sizemore insurance. Michael Cuddyer may end up getting priced out of Cleveland's range, so how former Twins teammate Jason Kubel? He can play left and step in as designated hitter when Travis Hafner suffers his inevitable breakdown.

2. Find at least one more starter.

Right now, the Indians can only count on Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez for their rotation. Carlos Carrasco is out for the season following Tommy John surgery, Fausto Carmona was terrible and even Josh Tomlin is a question mark after the league caught up to him in the second half (5.26 ERA).

Likely solution: Jeanmar Gomez has been roughed up in two stints in the majors (146 hits in 116 innings), but his Triple-A numbers were solid, if unspectacular. He'll be given another chance in spring training to battle David Huff for a rotation spot.

3. If not Matt LaPorta, who plays first base?

The big prospect acquired in the CC Sabathia deal, LaPorta just hasn't hit as expected, posting a .299 on-base percentage in 2011. The Indians seem ready to punt on LaPorta, who turns 27 in January so isn't even that young. Carlos Santana ended up playing a lot of first base down the stretch, but let's hope he's kept behind the plate, where his hitting value would be maximized.

Likely solution: If free agent Carlos Pena lowers his price, he's a possibility, and the Indians reportedly talked with Houston about Brett Wallace. I'm not sure Wallace is much of an upgrade over LaPorta, but at least he's younger. Casey Kotchman could fit nicely here as lower-cost alternative after posting a .378 OBP with Tampa. And hey, he's only two years older than LaPorta.

Chicago White Sox

1. What do you do with Adam Dunn and Alex Rios?

Dunn hit .159 with a .569 OPS. Rios hit .227 with a .613 OPS. Dunn was the least-valuable position player in baseball, according to Baseball-Reference.com, while Rios was seventh-worst. They made $24 million in 2011 and will make a combined $26 million in 2012. Both are signed through 2014.

Likely solution: General manager Kenny Williams will be busy during the winter meetings, perhaps shopping around guys like Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Matt Thornton, looking for some sort of backup plan to these two pieces of junk. The 40-man roster currently includes Alejandro De Aza, who probably deserves a chance to play somewhere after a nice run (if over his head) last season. Let's put it this way: he can produce an OPS higher than .613.

2. Third base (Brent Morel)

After struggling all season, hitting .250 with just two home runs and seven walks in 328 at-bats through August, Morel suddenly changed his approach in September, got more patient and swung for the fences. He hit just .224 the final month, but with eight home runs and 15 walks. Was it a legitimate improvement, or merely feasting off September tired arms and rookie call-ups?

Likely solution: Morel's hot September earns him another shot.

3. The new manager

This isn't so much an action plan, as a big question mark. Robin Ventura has no previous managerial experience, but the good sign for the White Sox is that respected pitching coach Don Cooper is still around to handle the pitching staff.

Likely solution: If Dunn and Rios stink it up again, it won't matter how well Ventura transitions into the job -- he'll be doomed.

Kansas City Royals

1. Fix the rotation

The Royals had a 4.82 ERA from their starters; only Baltimore was worse in the American League.

Likely solution: The Royals already made a move here, trading Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez. The club also re-signed Bruce Chen. With the signing of Jonathan Broxton, and the emergence of rookie relievers Greg Holland, Louis Coleman and Tim Collins in 2011, fellow 2011 rookie Aaron Crow will be given a shot at the rotation. I have my doubts it will work: Crow walked 31 in 62 innings out of the bullpen and left-handed hitters tagged him for a .311 average and .538 slugging percentage. There's a reason he struggled in the minors as a starter in 2010 (5.73 ERA). He has a great arm, but won't be able to rely on his fastball/slider combo as a starter.

2. Second base (Chris Getz)

Royals second basemen posted a .301 OBP and .636 OPS (26th in the majors) in 2011.

Likely solution: Rookie Johnny Giavotella played the final two months there and hit .247 with a .649 OPS. He'll head into spring training as the favorite to win the job. He hit .338/.390/.481 at Triple-A, so the batting potential is there: Bill James projects him to hit .295/.342/.419.

3. Center field (empty -- Cabrera traded)

The Royals were smart to deal Cabrera after his career season.

Likely solution: Lorenzo Cain, acquired from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade, will finally get a chance to play after spending 2011 in Triple-A. Cain is old for a guy still considered a prospect -- he turns 26 in April -- so he should be a polished product by now. He showed some power for the first time in his career, hitting 16 home runs for Omaha while batting .312. He doesn't walk much, so won't be a star, but should come closing to matching Cabrera's 2011 production.

Minnesota Twins

1. The M & M boys

After 2011's train wreck -- the club's first 90-loss season since 2000 (and at 99 losses, the most the 1982 Twins lost 102) -- it seems pretty clear this team will be dead in the water again unless Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau get healthy and regain their All-Star status. But they also can't assume these guys are going to play 140-plus games.

Likely solution: Obviously, the Twins need a better backup plan for Mauer than giving .167-hitting Drew Butera 250 plate appearances. They already accomplished with the smart signing of Ryan Doumit to a one-year deal for $3 million. Doumit can catch or play right field, but his bat is good enough to warrant a regular place in the lineup even when he's not behind the plate. Of course, he's also been injury-prone throughout his career. Prospect Chris Parmalee, who impressed in a September call-up, gives the team a potentially decent backup option for Morneau as well.

2. Right field: Empty (Michael Cuddyer, free agent)

For all the attention Cuddyer is getting, let's remember that he's really just a complementary bat on a good team. Unfortunately, considering some of the other outfielders the Twins tried last season -- Rene Tosoni, Jason Repko, Trevor Plouffe -- you realize they had nobody in the upper levels of the system.

Likely solution: Doumit may factor into their plans here, but regardless, the Twins need another bat to play a corner or DH. Smith is a trade option and free agent Josh Willingham is another possibility.

3. Closer: Empty (Matt Capps and Joe Nathan, free agents)

Nathan signed with Texas while GM Terry Ryan recently told the St. Paul Pioneer Press that it's likely Capps could return.

Likely solution: Capps was terrible last year, allowing 10 home runs in 65.2 innings while striking out just 4.7 hitters per nine innings. Two years ago, he had a 5.80 ERA. I can't fathom why any team would want to make Capps its closer. Sadly, however, the rest of the Minnesota bullpen is nearly as uninspiring (as is the rotation, but I don't have room to get to them here), but Capps throws strikes and there's nothing the Twins love more than a pitcher who throws strikes (velocity are ability to miss bats don't seem to be a factor). There's no reason for this team to spend big money on one of the remaining free-agent closers, so it probably will be Capps or lefty Glen Perkins.

The gang got back together for the final November edition of the Baseball Today podcast, as Mark Simon and I spoke about myriad offseason matters and welcomed a special guest!

1. ESPN senior writer Jim Caple shares his stories off the offseason both good and bad, waxing poetic about the CBA and Nick Punto but also the tragic Greg Halman incident.

2. Mark and I remind listeners about the MVP and Cy Young voting, what made sense and what did not. You might be surprised.

3. The big-name free agents remain unsigned, but there have been some interesting signings and a few trades to discuss. And where else will you hear the name Steve Buechele in 2011?

4. Interleague play for an entire season? Not surprisingly, Mark and I don’t share the same sentiments on the issue for that or the new playoff format.

5. We check out the latest emails, discussing the Houston Astros in the American League, interleague play, Theo and the Cubs and more!

Check back with the Baseball Today crew as we’re live -- well Keith Law will be -- from the winter meetings in Dallas next week!

Reports out of Philadelphia have the Phillies considering re-signing closer Ryan Madson to a four-year, $44 million deal.

Since converting to relief full-time in 2007, Madson has been one of the game's most underrated relievers, posting a 2.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, relying on a 93-95 mph fastball and terrific changeup. In his first full season as Phillies closer he was 32-for-34 in save opportunities and allowed just two home runs in 60.2 innings. While Madson has missed time each of the past two seasons, neither injury was to his arm -- a hand injury in 2011 when hit by a groundball and a self-inflicted toe injury in 2010.

He's just 31, so maybe it seems like a relatively safe bet by the Phillies. Except it isn't.

I took a look at the 10 largest multi-year contracts given to relievers (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts) and compared the numbers for the 10 relievers before the contract and after the contract, using the same number of seasons as the length of the contract (so if a guy signed a three-year deal, I used his three previous seasons). Here's what we get:

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Howard Smith/US PresswireIs Ryan Madson worth a four-year, $40 million deal?
• In the 32 combined seasons before signing their deals, the 10 relievers accumulated 71.4 WAR (wins above replacement, from Baseball-Reference.com) and pitched 2,152.1 innings.
• In the 32 combined seasons after signing their deals, the relievers accumulated 42.7 WAR and pitched 1,676 innings.
• That's an overall decrease in value of 40 percent and a decrease in innings of 22 percent.
• Only two of the 10 had an increase in value (Mariano Rivera and Jose Valverde) and only two threw more innings (Kerry Wood and Valverde, both on two-year deals).

Here's a closer look at each of those 10 relievers.

1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees, 2008-10, $15 million

2005-07: 9.6 WAR, 2.08 ERA, 107 saves, 224.2 IP
2008-10: 10.1 WAR, 1.64 ERA, 116 saves, 197 IP

Despite pitching 27 fewer innings, Rivera maintained his value with three more excellent seasons. His 2011 season, the first of another two-year deal that also pays him $15 million per season, was another good one. But Mariano is obviously one of a kind.

2. Brad Lidge, Phillies, 2009-11, $12.5 million

2006-08: 2.3 WAR, 3.58 ERA, 92 saves, 211.1 IP
2009-11: -1.3 WAR, 4.73 ERA, 59 saves, 123.2 IP

The Phillies re-signed Lidge after his remarkable 2008 when he didn't blow a save all season, including a 7-for-7 mark in the postseason as the Phillies won the World Series. Even then, however, Lidge should have come with a big warning sign tattooed to his forehead: His 4.5 walks per nine innings in 2008 indicated a pitcher who always lived on the edge. He fell off it in 2009 with one of the worst relief seasons of all time (0-8, 7.21 ERA) and battled injuries the past two seasons.

3. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets, 2009-11, $12.33 million

2006-08: 9.9 WAR, 2.24 ERA, 149 saves, 208.2 IP
2009-11: 4.7 WAR, 2.88 ERA, 83 saves, 197 IP

Like the Phillies, the Mets bought high on K-Rod, signing him after his record-breaking 62-save season with the Angels in 2008. Despite those 62 saves, K-Rod's strikeout rate had declined from previous years and his control had always been spotty. He posted a 2.88 ERA in the three seasons of the deal, but was hardly the dominant closer expected for a $12.3 million salary.

4. Joe Nathan, Twins, 2008-11, $11.75 million

2004-07: 13.0 WAR, 1.94 ERA, 160 saves, 282.1 IP
2008-11: 6.8 WAR, 2.49 ERA, 100 saves, 181 IP

Only Trevor Hoffman recorded more saves than Nathan from 2004 through 2007. Over those four years Nathan allowed a lower OPS than Rivera. Entering his age-33 season, the Twins gave him a big four-year deal. He was terrific for two seasons before tearing a ligament in spring training in 2010 and undergoing Tommy John surgery.

5. Francisco Cordero, Reds, 2008-11, $11.5 million

2004-07: 10.1 WAR, 3.06 ERA, 152 saves, 279.1 IP
2008-11: 6.2 WAR, 2.96 ERA, 150 saves, 279.1 IP

Cordero was exactly as advertised: A durable closer who makes you gnaw your fingernails on a nightly basis. He blew 24 saves over his four-year deal with the Reds, giving him a save percentage of 86 percent. In other words, the Reds paid top dollar for a guy who was essentially a league-average closer.

6. Billy Wagner, Mets, 2006-09, $10.75 million

2002-05: 10.8 WAR, 2.01 ERA, 138 saves, 287 IP
2006-09: 5.2 WAR, 2.35 ERA, 101 saves, 203.1 IP

It's hard to say this signing turned out well for the Mets, although Wagner posted good numbers when healthy. In 2006, he blew a 1-0 lead in Game 2 of the NLCS. By Game 7, Willie Randolph had lost confidence in Wagner and left in Aaron Heilman in the ninth inning of a tie game; Yadier Molina homered. In 2007, Wagner blew fives saves, but two of those came in late August and the final one came in late September, in the middle of the Mets' horrific collapse (he allowed three runs in the bottom of the ninth to the Marlins, who would win in 10 innings). In 2008, he missed the final two months as the Mets blew another division lead in September. That led to the club signing Rodriguez for 2009, which meant the Mets paid over $20 million for two relievers. They lost 92 games.

7. Kerry Wood, Indians, 2009-10, $10.25 million

2007-08: 2.1 WAR, 3.28 ERA, 34 saves, 90.2 IP
2009-10: 1.2 WAR, 3.74 ERA, 28 saves, 101 IP

After a solid 34-save season with the Cubs in 2008, the Indians took a chance on the injury-prone right-hander. He had a 4.80 ERA in 81 games with Cleveland, before getting traded to the Yankees at the trade deadline in 2010.

8. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays, 2006-10, $9.4 million

2001-05: 7.5 WAR, 3.25 ERA, 42 saves, 318.1 IP
2006-10: 4.5 WAR, 2.95 ERA, 75 saves, 155.1 IP

Ryan had emerged as a dominant reliever with the Orioles in 2004 and 2005 (he averaged 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings those two seasons), leading then-Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi to sign Ryan to mega-deal worth $47 million. The Jays got a great 2006 out of him (38 saves, 1.37 ERA), but then Ryan hurt his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery.

9. Brian Fuentes, Angels, 2009-10, $8.75 million

2007-08: 2.8 WAR, 2.90 ERA, 50 saves, 124 IP
2009-10: 1.5 WAR, 3.41 ERA, 72 saves, 103 IP

Fuentes posted solid numbers with the Rockies, relying on his deceptive left-handed delivery to fool hitters. While he saved 48 games for the Angels in 2009, his big platoon split made his overall numbers mediocre and Mike Scioscia limited him to just 55 innings. The next year, he was traded to the Twins in August.

10. Jose Valverde, Tigers, 2010-11, $7 million

2008-09: 3.3 WAR, 2.93 ERA, 69 saves, 126 IP
2010-11: 3.8 WAR, 2.59 ERA, 75 saves, 135.1 IP

After going 52-for-52 in save opportunities in 2011 (he did lose five games, however, including one in the postseason), the Tigers exercised a $9 million club option for 2012. Needless to say, Papa Grande will be hard-pressed to match his 2011 numbers.

Madson is a good pitcher, but predicting good health for a reliever -- especially a 30-something one -- is clearly a dicey proposition. The Phillies are now of baseball's big-market monsters, so they can afford a $40 million gamble more than most teams, but that's what signing Madson would be -- a very big gamble.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

Rain was squarely in the forecast for Game 6 as Keith Law and I talked World Series, but there were no delays in Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast!

1. We’re hardly meteorologists, but if rain messes with the schedule, does it favor the Rangers or Cardinals, both or neither?

2. Do we even want the game to be played if there will be delays or anything similar to the Phillies-Rays World Series fiasco?

3. In other news, Theo -- he’s apparently a one-word entity now -- needs to find a manager ... or does he? We talk Cubbies and their future.

4. Well, now the 2012 Red Sox have a chance: John Lackey needs Tommy John surgery. Of course we jest, but if the Sawx knew about Lackey’s barking elbow in July and failed to act ... well, that’s another issue.

5. We received some strong emails, talking about lineup construction -- and lack thereof -- dugout technology and more about how a manager does his job.

So tune in for Wednesday’s Baseball Today podcast and regardless of what happens in Game 6 or beyond, we’ll be here all week!

Here are the top five reasons why Monday's Baseball Today podcast with Keith Law and me is a must-listen:

1. Posada-gate is hopefully over, but who was right, who was wrong and why will it be so much worse when one of Jorge's teammates keeps declining?

2. Cleveland Indians fans still don't like it, but the best team in baseball record-wise gets dubious respect in our Power Rankings. We explain, while showing the AL East love.

3. Can a team with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan really be the worst in baseball? If that trio isn't contributing at a high level, you betcha.

4. We react to the SweetSpot blog about the new best rivalry in baseball with some skepticism, but then again, it's an interesting issue, especially defining the word rivalry.

5. We talk about the best hitter in baseball -- you did see all the home runs this weekend, right? -- and check back with our feelings on the noteworthy offseason contract.

Plus: Excellent emails, how I love the old 1970s uniforms, the Braves' outlook with Chipper's knee tear, analyzing the percentages on catchers throwing out basestealers. David Price is dealing with his fastball and poor Brandon League had a week to forget ... all this on Monday's Baseball Today!

Eric Karabell and Mark Simon join forces on Monday's Baseball Today podcast to discuss:

• Thoughts on the weekend: discouraged by the Twins, more good stuff from the Rockies.
• Joe Mauer's injury, Matt Capps in at closer, some good wins for the Rays.
• The best player in baseball has been ... Matt Kemp of the Dodgers.
• Carl Crawford still being moved around the Red Sox lineup.
• Assessing Alexi Ogando's performance against the Yankees.
• Eric and Mark give their latest power rankings.
• Could the Royals or Indians actually win 90 games?

Hey, I love blaming the manager. You love blaming the manager. It’s as much a part of baseball as peanuts, Cracker Jack and questioning every home run hit from 1993 to 2005, except those hit by David Eckstein.

So let’s go around one night in baseball and play the newest SweetSpot game, coming soon to GSN, “I Could Do A Better Job, If Only I Weren’t Sitting On My Couch Blogging Instead.”

The move: Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez brings in Leo Nunez to close out a 6-5 lead against the Braves.
What happened: Nunez got the job done, giving up a leadoff line-drive single to Alex Gonzalez, but escaping further damage.
My take: Nunez is a mediocre reliever (4.37 career ERA) who lucked into the Marlins’ closer role a couple seasons ago -- and held on to it despite allowing 13 home runs. I would have kept Clay Hensley in the game. Hensley, so dominant last season (2.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, only three home runs), threw five pitches in the eighth inning in recording the game’s two biggest outs, Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward, leaving the bottom of the order for Nunez. Even then, Nunez was lucky to escape without a blown save. After Gonzalez’s single, Freddie Freeman laced a liner into deep right-center that Scott Cousins made a nice running catch on. A couple more feet and it’s a tie game.

The move: Twins manager Ron Gardenhire takes out Carl Pavano after eight shutout innings, brings in Joe Nathan to protect a 2-0 lead against the Rays.
What happened: Double, walk, two-run double, game tied. Twins lose in the bottom of the 10th when Matt Capps blows another lead.
My take: Two years ago, before Nathan blew out his elbow, this move wouldn’t have been questioned, of course, as Nathan was one of the most dominant closers around. But he’s not Joe Nathan anymore. His fastball, 93-94 mph before the injury, has been averaging 91 this season. Pavano had thrown just 104 pitches and allowed four hits and two walks. He’d retired the side in order in the eighth, including a strikeout of Johnny Damon. He’s a workhorse. Leave him in.

The move: Buck Showalter has Mike Gonzalez pitch to Nick Swisher with runners at second and third and one out in the bottom of the 10th inning.
What happened: Swisher hits a sac fly to give the Yankees a 6-5 win.
My take: I wholeheartedly agree with this move. Not a big fan of the intentional walk to set up the double play, as it forces the pitcher to throw a strike -- and the hitter knows it. (Last season, batters hit for a higher average and more power with the bases loaded than with runners on second and third.) Plus, in this specific case you have a high strikeout batter (Swisher struck out 139 times in 2010) and a pretty good strikeout pitcher in Gonzalez. The argument for walking Swisher would be to set up a double play with Jorge Posada, but last season Posada grounded into a double play in only 7 percent of his possible opportunities (14 percent in 2009). And Gonzalez isn’t a groundball pitcher, so a double play would have been unlikely. Sometimes the right move just doesn’t work. (Now, if you want to argue whether Kevin Gregg should be Baltimore’s closer. …)

The move: Eric Wedge hits Adam Kennedy cleanup for the Mariners. Kennedy had started at cleanup once before in his career.
What happened: Kennedy drives in Seattle’s lone run in a 5-1 loss to Kansas City! Shockingly, a lineup with Adam Kennedy hitting cleanup struggled to score runs.
My take: Look, I know why Eric Wedge did this: He doesn’t want to bat Justin Smoak cleanup, presumably to take “pressure” off him. Hey, I don’t know if Smoak is going to be any good. He’s easily been Seattle’s best hitter so far (cough) and whether he turns out to be a big-time hitter will have nothing to do with where he bats in the lineup. Either he can hit major league pitching or he can’t. And I know this: the only way Seattle will ever be a good team again is if Justin Smoak develops into a cleanup hitter. At some point you have to take the training wheels off and let the kid ride or fall.

So there you go. One night in baseball. Sometimes the moves work, sometimes they don’t, and sometimes they just confuse us. But in the end I tend to believe it’s the ballplayers who win and lose the games.

It’s just more fun to blame the manager.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

I never know what to make of spring training injuries. It seems like there have been a lot of injuries this spring (listen to Orel Hershiser talk about all the pitching injuries ) but unless we went back and checked previous seasons, it's difficult to say if that's really the case. It's also easy to overreact, since teams are going to be cautious with any sore arms or tight hamstrings at the start of the season -- especially for clubs heading north, where temperatures are still hovering in the 30s and 40s.

With that, here's a scroll through the American League with some of the latest injury updates:

Curtis Granderson and Pedro Feliciano, Yankees: Granderson has a strained oblique but thinks he'll be ready for the first series. Feliciano, who hasn't pitched since March 9, sounds less promising, as he'll remain behind in camp. Steve Garrison might win his spot on the roster.

Brian Matusz and Justin Duchscherer, Orioles: The lefty had to leave a minor league game on Monday after getting struck on the biceps with a line drive, but should be fine to make his first start on Saturday. Duchscherer will start the season on the DL with a strained hip that sidelined him most of last season, opening up rotation slots for Chris Tillman and Brad Bergesen.

J.P. Howell, Rays: He's still on track to start pitching in the minor leagues in mid-April and hopefully reach the majors by early May.

Dayan Viciedo, White Sox: He fractured his thumb on March 10 after getting hit by a pitch. He'll stay behind in Arizona until he's ready.

Jake Peavy, White Sox: He is to pitch three innings in a minor league intrasquad game today and then stay behind in Arizona. Phil Humber will be the team's fifth starter until Peavy is ready.

Grady Sizemore, Indians: He'll start the season on the DL, making Michael Brantley the starting center fielder with Austin Kearns in left. The Indians have no timetable for Sizemore's return from knee surgery.

Justin Morneau, Twins: As of Monday, Morneau still hadn't been officially cleared by doctors to play Opening Day, but Morneau is hopeful he'll be ready.

Joe Nathan Twins: He hasn't pitched great this spring as he comes back from Tommy John surgery, but he passed a test by going two innings in one outing and pitching on back-to-back days. Still, Ron Gardenhire as indicated Matt Capps might be used in some save situations early on.

Kendrys Morales, Angels: He took batting practice Monday and will begin agility work on Tuesday. Mark Trumbo will begin the season as the team's first baseman.

Joel Pineiro, Angels: He might head to the DL with muscle soreness in his back, pushing his first start to April 8.

Andrew Bailey, A's: A strained right foreman has landed Bailey on the DL. He's also recovering from elbow surgery. No timetable on his return. Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour will share closer duties, according to manager Bob Geren.

Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners: He's likely to begin on the DL with a stomach ailment the team is still trying to diagnose. That leaves Michael Saunders and Ryan Langerhans as center field options.

Tommy Hunter and Brandon Webb, Rangers: The Rangers are having all kinds of issues with their pitching staff. Hunter is out at least six weeks with a strained groin while Webb is still in the midst of rehabbing his shoulder. A May return is the optimistic outlook. Meanwhile, C.J. Wilson left his last start with a tight hamstring and Arthur Rhodes has tendinitis in his wrist. Alexi Ogando appears to be the guy stepping in for Hunter.


Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter at @dschoenfield. Follow the SweetSpot blog at @espn_sweet_spot.

One of the more irritating debates that refuses to end is one that ensues every time there's a rumor that a team might try to convert a successful reliever into a starter. What makes it irritating is that there seems to be a cadre of fans/writers who, specific examples aside, simply don't accept that a good starting pitcher is inherently more valuable than a good reliever. It really shouldn't be this difficult, its basic math; 150-200 innings is more than 65-80 innings, meaning that, over the course of the season, the starting pitcher is going to be get roughly six to eight times as many outs as the reliever in a year.

What's more, research by Joe Posnanski suggests that the advent of the closer role, specifically, has had very little impact on teams holding ninth-inning leads. Not even having an elite closer like Mariano Rivera. And in fact, the Rangers were below league average at holding ninth-inning leads with Neftali Feliz as their closer, according to Posnanski's research.

And yet, here we are again. With the Rangers considering moving Feliz to the starting rotation, the debate is once again raging on. And as usual, precious little of the debate seems to hinge on whether or not Feliz can start. That question would certainly be reasonable, but instead we're once again arguing over which role would be more valuable to the team.

Consider this column by Ken Rosenthal speculating about how difficult it would be for the Rangers to replace Feliz in the closer role. But didn't we just see the Twins replace Joe Nathan with Jon Rauch (and then Matt Capps) last season en route to winning their division by a rather comfortable margin? Didn't we see the Yankees pick up Kerry Wood for peanuts, after which Wood turned in a truly dominant performance over the last two months of the season? Haven't we seen teams trading for relievers at the deadline pretty much every season? The truth is, relievers aren't that hard to get, and as you would expect from Posnanski's research, basically any average reliever who finds himself with a lot of save opportunities is going to rack up a hefty number of saves.

More bizarrely, look at the potential trade targets Rosenthal breaks down. Every single one of them is an incumbent closer. There isn't a single non-closing reliever on the list, as though there aren't any relievers out there Texas could trade for and install in the closer spot. Never mind that most of the best closers in the game were non-closers first (including Rivera himself).

This is indicative of the strong bias sports fans and commentators have toward the status quo. This isn't only true in baseball, of course. Consider the near universal ridicule Bill Belichick received a couple of years ago when he opted to try to get a first down against the Colts' defense to clinch a game rather than punt the ball and give Peyton Manning a chance to win the game. As though that were just self-evidently crazy.

The converse of that is that coaches who "play by the book" are basically covering their backside. If your starting pitcher loads the bases with no outs in the seventh inning while your team is holding a two run lead and you, as the manager, bring in one of your middle relievers only to see them give up a grand slam, well you did the right thing and the pitcher just made a mistake. On the other hand, if you bring in your closer to get you out of the jam and a lesser reliever ultimately blows the game in the ninth, you can probably expect to be roundly ridiculed in the papers the next day. The only exception is for teams who don't have an obvious closer in the bullpen, but even those managers generally succumb to the temptation to squeeze someone into the role, as no one wants to have the dreaded "closer by committee."

This isn't to say that good relievers aren't a nice thing to have by any means. Having a really good pitcher or two in your bullpen who can come into the game to get you out of jams can be extremely useful, especially if you use them right, deploying them in high-leverage situations rather than managing the game to get your closer that almighty save. Of course, no one is doing that (though the Rays' Joe Maddon seems to be planning on it), and I definitely don't expect Ron Washington to buck the trend.

If Feliz can start, he should. If that bolsters the Rangers' rotation and the offense generates enough runs, the Rangers won't have any problem finding someone to hold a ninth inning lead 92-96 percent of the time.

Brien Jackson is a contributor to It’s About The Money, a SweetSpot Network member. Brien can be followed on Twitter. IIATMS can also be found on Facebook and Twitter.

I love pop flies. That’s not a normal thing, even for a huge baseball fan to say. I know that. But I love watching good pitching, and inducing popups is good pitching.

Popups are nearly as good as strikeouts. They strand runners, and even the worst infield can turn them into outs. They have an average BABIP of .020.

So who is really good at inducing popups? Here are the leaders in pop-up rate over the past five years (2005-2010) for those pitchers who have faced more than 1,000 batters.

1. Hideki Okajima: 16.20%
2. Chris Young: 15.60%
3. Mariano Rivera: 15.10%
4. Trevor Hoffman: 14.80%
5. Ramon Ramirez: 14.70%
6. Jonathan Papelbon: 14.60%
7. Jon Rauch: 14.50%
8. Joe Nathan: 14.20%
9. Takashi Saito: 13.90%
10. Bartolo Colon: 13.80%

That’s a lot of good relievers, DIPS defying Young, and … huh … Colon. But do these guys actually induce a lot of popups? Or do they just induce a lot of fly balls? Presumably a pitcher who generates a lot of fly balls can generate a lot of pop flies as a natural consequence of keeping the ball in the air all the time. Young, in particular, has the highest fly ball rate for that same group of pitchers. He is probably not so good at inducing popups as he is at inducing fly balls, a totally normal percentage of which stay over the infield.

I’m more impressed when a pitcher can manage to turn an abnormal amount of his fly balls into popups. Who are the leaders for the last half of the decade in popups per fly ball (IFFB/FB)?

1. Mariano Rivera: 50.35%
2. Cla Meredith: 49.38%
3. Hiroki Kuroda: 39.80%
4. Roy Halladay: 38.37%
5. Jon Lieber: 36.78%
6. Pedro Feliciano: 35.81%
7. Joe Nathan: 35.47%
8. Bartolo Colon: 35.33%
9. Hideki Okajima: 35.17%

Meredith might be on this list due to luck. He generates so few fly balls (less than 20 percent of all balls in play) that it wouldn’t take many extra popups to thrust him into the league leaders. Rivera is not, though. Even though he only has a few hundred fly balls in this sample, extending it back to 2002 shows the same thing: about half of Rivera’s fly balls are infield flies. No one else is really in the same neighborhood, except for Meredith's fluky looking rate. Halladay has induced more popups than anyone else on this list. So, that’s something else that Halladay is amazing at. Above average strikeouts, groundballs, impeccable control and a little less than half of his flies stay over the dirt.

If you do the math, IFFB/FB looks something like a skill -- certainly more skillish than HR/FB, but considerably less of a skill than strikeout percentage. But the career averages for IFFB/FB are spread far enough apart that you have to think that there is some control that certain pitchers have over it. I don't have pitch selection in this particular data set, but this particular group of names makes me immediately think that having a good cutter is the best way to turn fly balls into popups.

Otis Anderson writes for Bay City Ball, which is part of the SweetSpot blog network.

Perhaps this isn't the time to rehash the Twins' decision to devote a significant percentage of their relatively limited payroll to a relief pitcher. With Joe Nathan out for perhaps the whole season, let's instead turn to the practical implications:

There are not many experienced free agent closers available, meaning the Twins might have to turn to their farm system or make a trade if they chose not to promote another reliever from within the bullpen.

Jon Rauch, a 6-foot-11 right-hander, has the most experience closing games of anyone in the Twins' bullpen, with 26 career saves over five major league seasons. He split 2009 between the Twins and Arizona Diamondbacks, finishing with a 7-3 record, a 3.60 ERA and 17 holds in 75 appearances.

Matt Guerrier, another right-handed reliever, went 5-1 last season with 33 holds and a 2.36 ERA in 79 appearances.

Other candidates on hand include Pat Neshek, Clay Condrey, Jose Mijares, and Jesse Crain. Without running through the pros and cons associated with each, we can instead simply say this: It doesn't matter which of them gets the job.

OK, it does matter a little. But none of those pitchers -- not one of the six -- is a good bet for an ERA in 2010 much lower or higher than 4.00. "But how can that be true?" you might be saying. "In 2009, Mijares and Guerrier both finished with ERA's lower than 2.50, and Condrey was dead on 3.00 with the Phillies."

Unfortunately, none of those guys have demonstrated the skills necessary to maintain ERAs that low.

It's not that one of the Twins' relievers won't finish this season with an excellent ERA; it's just that it's almost impossible to know which one. Which of course makes it difficult for Ron Gardenhire to somehow divine the identity of his best closer candidate.

I'm sure he'll try, though.

Joe Nathan took over as the Twins' closer in 2004. Before him, Everyday Eddie Guardado was the every-day closer. Before him, it was LaTroy Hawkins, who lost his job to Guardado only because of an ERA approaching 6. To find a season in which the Twins didn't have a firmly established closer, you have to go back to 2000, when Tom Kelly never quite decided between Hawkins (14 saves) and Bullet Bob Wells (10), both of them right-handers.

My point being that Ron Gardenhire is probably going to choose someone this month, or in April, and stick with him for a while. Which isn't the worst thing in the world. But the best thing would probably be to let the left-handed Mijares get some save opportunities in left-heavy ninths, with one (or more) of the righties getting the others.

That would leave Gardenhire short a left-handed setup man; in fact, the only other left-handed candidate to even win a roster spot is Brian Duensing, who's been a starter throughout his professional career. But Duensing is fighting for the No. 5 slot in the rotation, and sliding him into the bullpen would seem a relatively easy move.

The American League Central is weak enough that the Twins could win it without doing anything at all unorthodox. Just hand the closer chores to Guerrier or Rauch, and beat out the White Sox for the division title by two or three games. But they could improve their chances just a bit by doing what managers used to do as a matter of course: thinking.

Just doing a little maintenance in Minnesota (and Alabama):

As expected, Justin Morneau has had surgery to remove a bone spur from his wrist, just below the back of his right hand. Morneau was spotted in the Wild locker room after their victory over Colorado last night with his hand wrapped up.

--snip--

What wasn’t known, however, is that Joe Nathan had two bone chips removed from his right elbow on Tuesday after Twins doctors recommended a cleanup. Nathan flew to Birmingham, Ala. on Tuesday to have the surgery done by noted surgeon Dr. James Andrews.

Tip of the cap to Baseball Musings, where Pinto wonders if the bone spurs had anything to do with Nathan's "late season problems." Well, maybe. But when David says "late season," he must mean "postseason" because Nathan was fantastic down the stretch. In his last 20 appearances, Nathan converted 16 of 17 save opportunities and held the hitters to a ridiculous .158 batting average (only blot on his record was four home runs allowed).

Of course he didn't fare well against the Yankees in the Division, but 1) it was the Yankees, and 2) it was only two innings.

Only Nathan and maybe his doctor knows how much he's been hurting. But this seems to me like the sort of routine cleanup that half the pitchers in the majors wind up having every so often, more like a tuneup than a rebuild.