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The Reds received a game-changing grand slam in the sixth inning to take a 5-2 lead against the Braves on Thursday night, leading to their sixth consecutive victory and their first sweep of the Braves since 1980. It wasn’t superstar Joey Votto who provided the knockout punch, nor was it mainstays Brandon Phillips or Jay Bruce. The home run came off the bat of one of the Reds’ many unheralded young players: 23-year-old rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco.

The blast also marked Cincinnati’s 10th home run of the series, leading to 14 of its 16 runs in the series. Winning with home runs is nothing new for this Reds squad, not at Great American Ball Park and certainly not in the Joey Votto era. But Votto didn’t hit a single homer in the series. Neither did Bruce. Phillips hit two. Instead of the three stalwarts on this Reds squad, it was the supporting cast leading the way: Mesoraco (1), Drew Stubbs (3), Zack Cozart (2), Todd Frazier (1) and Mike Leake (1).

Leake’s homer backed up a quality start on Monday, and the other home runs backed up quality starts from Mat Latos (Tuesday), Bronson Arroyo (Wednesday) and Homer Bailey (Thursday). The Reds saw scoreless outings from five different relievers and saves converted by three. To accomplish this in any series is excellent; to do so against the second-highest-scoring team in the league in one of the best hitters’ parks in all of baseball is another.

Depth and pitching have set this year’s Reds squad apart from last year’s version, a preseason favorite for the National League Central crown that was eventually lapped by both the Brewers and Cardinals. The 2011 season saw a 156 OPS+ from Votto and 119 OPS+ marks from both Phillips and Bruce. No other full-time starters came close; only part-time players Chris Heisey (113), Ramon Hernandez (113) and Miguel Cairo (101) even mustered an above average mark.

This season has seen the likes of Paul Janish, Edgar Renteria and Jonny Gomes excised in favor of Cozart (.727 OPS) and Frazier (.887). It has seen Stubbs come to life after three horrible series to open the year -- he owns a .266/.324/.430 line since April 17 to go with his typical fantastic defense. It’s seen Ryan Hanigan pick up his game as well, with a .794 OPS in 27 games as the starting catcher.

Johnny Cueto owns a phenomenal 2.22 ERA over 33 starts dating back to May 2011, but it was the other four Cincinnati starters who held down the Braves this week. Latos started out cold, but has a 2.35 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 23 innings in May. Arroyo has a 121 ERA+ after allowing a near-record 46 home runs last season, owning an absurd 44-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 58.2 innings. Bailey and Leake have had their rough spots, but they fit well in the back of the Reds’ rotation -- a tough job with half of their starts coming in the bandbox in Cincinnati.

The bullpen has established itself as one of the league’s best. Regardless of what one thinks Aroldis Chapman’s role should be, it is undeniable that he is the league’s best reliever. In the four-game sweep of the Braves, he pitched two more scoreless innings. Chapman fronts a bullpen full of talented pitchers: Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek and Alfredo Simon all own ERA+ marks of 137 or higher. Sean Marshall shouldn’t be counted out either despite a rough start -- he was one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons.

The Reds currently sit atop the NL Central, with a half-game lead over the Cardinals. As usual, Votto, Phillips, Cueto and Bruce lead the way. But if the Reds maintain their current success and carry it through to a playoff run, it will be because this year they didn’t have to do it all themselves.

For a few brief moments on Monday night, it appeared the Cincinnati Reds would slide past the St. Louis Cardinals into first place in the NL Central. The Reds had defeated the Braves 4-1 behind a brilliant effort from Mike Leake and four solo home runs. The Padres were leading the Cardinals late in their game, until Tyler Greene's two-run homer in the eighth lifted the Cards to a 4-3 victory.

Still ... half a game. Half a game. Cardinals fans have to be wondering how this happened.

Considering the hot starts many of the Cardinals jumped out to -- Rafael Furcal, Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran and three-fifths of the rotation in Kyle Lohse, Lance Lynn and Jake Westbrook -- the Cardinals can only look back and wonder why they're not five or six games in front of the Reds. After all, St. Louis' run differential is +58; Cincinnati's is only +3.

I'd call it an opportunity squandered, because now the Reds are breathing down their necks and they're probably here to stay. Hey, there has to be at least two good teams in the NL Central, right?

With all the talk about who should be closing in Cincinnati, the biggest issue with the pitching staff has been Leake. He entered winless in seven starts -- at 0-5, he joined Chris Volstad and Francisco Liriano as the only pitchers without a win and at least five decisions -- but wasn't just reeling from a lack of run support. He'd allowed at least three runs each start, had a 6.21 ERA, a .309 batting average allowed and just 21 strikeouts in 37.2 innings.

Leake walked Martin Prado with one out in the first but struck out Freddie Freeman and Dan Uggla. In the second, Juan Francisco homered, but Leake then retired 14 in a row before Uggla doubled in the seventh. He finished with eight innings, just those two hits and six K's. For Leake, his biggest issue before Monday night had been an ineffective changeup, usually a good pitch for him. In 2010-2011, opponents hit .252 off his changeup but they were hitting .529 in at-bats ending with a changeup in 2012.

He appeared to compensate by throwing more cutters against the Braves -- 28 out of 98, the second-most he's thrown in a start this season. Of course, it helped that he was ahead of hitters much of the night, throwing just two pitches on three-ball counts; in his previous three starts, he'd thrown 31 pitches with three balls. Pitching is easier when you don't have to groove a pitch to avoid a walk.

Leake also sparked the Cincinnati offense in the fourth inning, when he homered off his friend Mike Minor (Minor was the seventh pick in the 2009 draft, Leake the eighth, and the two were teammates on Team USA). Zack Cozart and Drew Stubbs followed with home runs to give the Reds back-to-back-to-back blasts. While it was Leake's first career blast, he's a legitimate threat at the plate with a .271 career average.

The four solo shots do highlight a big problem with the Reds' offense, however. Outside of Joey Votto this lineup is completely hacktastic -- working the count is not exactly a disease that has spread from Votto to everyone else. Even with Votto's MLB-leading 40 walks, the Reds rank just 11th in the NL in free passes, and despite playing in a hitter-friendly home park, their .697 team OPS is tied for 10th in the league. After Votto, Jay Bruce is second on the team with 12 walks -- quadruple that total and you have a guy on pace for 48. Home run boys Cozart and Stubbs can flip the occasional long ball, but they've combined for just 22 walks and 86 strikeouts. Brandon Phillips has just eight walks. Votto gets walked a lot because he often comes up with nobody on base. (Memo to Dusty Baker: Try moving Bruce in front of Votto. Just consider it, please.)

Somewhere, Joe Morgan cringes.

When the Reds won the NL Central in 2010, they led the NL in runs scored. That team led the NL with 188 home runs and a .272 average while ranking ninth in walks. This offense doesn't show signs of matching the firepower of that lineup, not with Votto, Bruce and catcher Ryan Hanigan the only three sporting an OBP over .300.

That means the Reds are going to be in a lot of low-scoring games, which means the bullpen will prove key, especially since Leake's outing was only the 12th in 41 games where the Reds' starter has gone at least seven innings.

Which, inevitably, gets us back to Baker and how he handles the relief crew. It's certainly interesting that in the two days since Aroldis Chapman was "named" the team's closer that exiled closer Sean Marshall picked up the two most important outs.

On Sunday, with the Reds leading the Yankees 3-2 and a runner on with no outs in the eighth, Marshall retired Robinson Cano. Chapman came on for the easy save and faced the bottom of the Yankees lineup after the Reds had extended their lead to 5-2.

On Monday, with Chapman unavailable after pitching four times in five days, Marshall again delivered after Jose Arredondo walked Uggla and Brian McCann with two outs in the ninth. Brought on to face Jason Heyward, Marshall fell behind with a slider, threw two of his big-breaking curveballs for a called strike and a swinging strike, saw Heyward foul off another curve, threw a fastball down low, and then got Heyward to fly to right on another curve.

For all the consternation over who gets the capital C designation, it shouldn't really matter. Marshall is a very good reliever. Chapman has been a great one. Arredondo and Logan Ondrusek are solid right-handers and rookie J.J. Hoover has looked impressive. What Baker should avoid doing is getting trapped into saving Chapman for the ninth inning only -- which means fewer innings and fewer moments with the game on the line. Chapman is the guy you want in there when you need a big strikeout with runners on base in the eighth inning. Marshall, Arrendodo and Ondrusek can close out the three-run leads. Use Chapman and his bullpen mates wisely, and the Reds can stay in this race even with a mediocre offense.

As for the Cardinals, that hot start is a thing of the past. The injuries are mounting and that run differential has gone to waste. We're a quarter of the way into the season and we have a race.

Considering these two teams have some strong dislike for each other going back a couple years, it should be a fun summer in Central Land.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

The Dodgers have two megastars who dominate the NL leaderboards across multiple categories in Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. But there is another Dodgers player who finds himself in some interesting leaderboard company -- catcher A.J. Ellis.

Ellis had his streak of 28 straight games reaching base safely come to an end in Sunday’s win against the Cardinals. That was tied for the third-longest such streak in baseball this season:

Elvis Andrus , Rangers, 32
Bryan LaHair, Cubs, 30
A.J. Ellis, Dodgers, 28
Joey Votto, Reds, 28
Curtis Granderson, Yankees, 28

Ellis’ 0-for-4 on Sunday dropped him into fifth place among the major league leaders in on-base percentage at .446, behind David Wright, Joey Votto, Paul Konerko and Kemp.

It’s impressive that he’s in that group, and what might be even more impressive is how he ended up in that group.

Ellis is hitting .315 in two-strike counts, the second-highest batting average in the majors behind Martin Prado’s .326.

The reason he finds himself in such counts is because he takes pitches more often than anyone else in baseball. Ellis has swung at 31.5 percent of pitches thrown to him. The next-lowest rate is Ben Zobrist’s 34.2 percent. Patience was a virtue on Friday when he drew a walk-off walk to beat the Cardinals.

Ellis has swung at the first pitch of a plate appearance only seven times out of 132 PAs, although he did swing at the first pitch twice in the series against the Cardinals.

Below is a grid that contrasts Ellis with one of baseball’s most notable free swingers, Josh Hamilton. Ellis might not be in Hamilton’s class, but he’s still enjoying a highly satisfying season.

Happy Mother's Day?

Yes.

But I'll throw in this: Happy baseball day.

Joey Votto and Giancarlo Stanton hit walk-off grand slams on a day where players wore pink wristbands or pink shoes or used pink bats to celebrate mothers everywhere for breast cancer awareness. Seeing the Reds and Marlins in those joyous home-plate celebrations reminds us that grown men making millions can still be boys, jumping around in unpretentious bliss, just like the days when mom drove them to Little League games.

It was the first walk-off grand slams since 1998, when Steve Finley and Mo Vaughn did it for the Padres and Red Sox, and they capped off dramatic comeback victories.

Votto's grand slam into the grassy knoll in center field at The Great American Ball Park capped a three-homer day and should erase concerns about "What's wrong with Joey Votto?" Nothing was wrong, of course, even though Votto entered the day with just two home runs. He was hitting .296/.454/.491, leading the majors with 15 doubles and 31 walks. He simply hasn't been getting a lot of pitches to hit. Entering Sunday, fewer than 40 percent of the pitches he'd seen were in the strike zone. Votto is one of the most disciplined hitters in the majors and his chase percentage of 20.5 ranks among the best in baseball.

The Nationals challenged Votto on a wet, rain-delayed game in Cincinnati and showed why throwing him too many strikes can be a dangerous proposition. In the first inning, he hit a 1-0 fastball from Edwin Jackson six or seven deep into the left-field seats. In the fourth, he crushed a 3-2 changeup from Jackson over the 404 sign in dead center.

After the Nationals took a 6-3 lead, the Reds scored two runs in the eighth when Bryce Harper lost a Jay Bruce flyball in the dreary early evening gray sky. All that did was set up the dramatic bottom of the ninth, when Votto turned around a two-out, 2-2, 96-mph fastball from Henry Rodriguez to give the Reds a 9-6 victory.

Votto also doubled, and now his season line reads: .319/.466/.593, meaning he raised his slugging percentage 102 points in one day. What's wrong with Votto? Nothing.

Stanton gave the Marlins their own drama, after Heath Bell had pitched poorly yet again in blowing a 2-2 game in the top of the ninth. (Memo to Ozzie Guillen: Bell is unusable right now. How many games are you going to let him lose before he proves he can still get major league hitters out?)

Facing Frank Francisco, Emilio Bonifacio tripled, John Buck walked and Greg Dobbs singled in one run, forcing Mets manager Terry Collins to bring in Manny Acosta and leading Francisco to get ejected as he angrily confronted home-plate umpire Todd Tichenor. Jose Reyes hit a game-tying sac fly and Omar Infante popped out, but Acosta then walked Hanley Ramirez and hit Austin Kearns, to bring up Stanton.

Waving his pink bat, Stanton already had two base hits in the game. Marlins color guy Tommy Hutton had said earlier how Stanton was starting to spray the ball all over; that had helped him hit in 12 of 13 games entering Sunday, including four doubles and six home runs. But five of those home runs had come on the road.

Acosta knew he had to get ahead of Stanton. He fired a 95-mph heater at the knees, but it caught too much of the center of the plate. Stanton crushed it to left-center, 433 feet, just missing the art-deco monstrosity sculpture. It was the longest home run yet in the Marlins' new park.

For the Marlins, it was their fifth walk-off win at home and their fourth straight series win. After sitting 8-14 on April 30, the Marlins are 10-2 in May.

"That one was one of those no-doubters off the bat," Stanton said after the game. "First-pitch heater, right down the middle. I'm looking for a pitch that is going to get the heart of the plate." Stanton rounded the bases, flipped his helmet high in the air and joined the mob scene of his orange-clad teammates, where Logan Morrison lifted him high in the air, a bunch of boys celebrating a win.

Somewhere, their mothers smiled.

Welcome to another Opening Day! SweetSpot blogger Dave Schoenfield and I joined forces for Thursday’s Baseball Today podcast, talking not only about the Cardinals beating the Marlins, but looking ahead!

1. Wow, is that a big ballpark in Miami or what? Dave and I talk about Josh Johnson, Kyle Lohse and how the Marlins seem ill-fitted for their new stadium.

2. Another day, another bit of news concerning the Boston Red Sox closer situation. By the way, producer Jay Soderberg doesn’t like the team’s chances this year.

3. The Washington Nationals demoted John Lannan to the minors. While we applaud the move, do veteran players deserve a team’s loyalty?

4. Other email questions dealt with where Albert Pujols should bat in the order, Starlin Castro’s future contract, and an entirely new way to build pitching staffs.

5. We look ahead to Thursday’s action, with Clayton Kershaw facing off against a potentially rejuvenated right-hander in San Diego, and whether we should be worried about Matt Kemp's poor spring training.

So download and listen to Thursday’s excellent Baseball Today podcast, because baseball is awesome and you can’t get enough!

Bias cat made more than one appearance on Tuesday’s memorable Baseball Today podcast, as Keith Law and myself tried to make sense of the misguided anger, while also discussing a few major contracts!

1. What are the Cincinnati Reds thinking in locking up Joey Votto for 10 years? Keith explains why the Reds will regret the contract extension.

2. However, the Matt Cain deal in San Francisco looks a bit better. We compare the Cain deal to how it affects Cole Hamels, a similar pitcher but one that throws with his left hand.

3. Keith reminds us what the 20-80 scouting scale means, pointing out some players at either side of the extreme for certain categories. Oh, and he’s not a fan of Dusty Baker, but you probably knew that already.

4. Apparently we’re biased against the New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers, since we didn’t pick them to win the World Series. How could we! It’s a dynamite set of silly emails today!

5. Keith explains some of his 2012 predictions, including why Yu Darvish is not only going to be the AL Rookie of the Year ...

So download and listen to Tuesday’s Baseball Today podcast, and we remind you that no cats were harmed in the production of the show. Just feelings.

On Tuesday we unveil the top 10 in the ESPN 500 rankings. Joey Votto didn't make the top 10 -- he ranked 19th, but should have been higher in my humble opinion -- but I did want to make a couple of more points regarding his reported 10-year contract extension.

First, I love the deal; others disagree, siding with the opinion of ESPN Insider Keith Law that as Votto ages, the second half of the contract could become a huge albatross. As Keith writes, "The Reds already had Votto under contract for 2012 and 2013 at well-below-market salaries, so the extension won't begin in earnest until his age-30 season, by which point Votto will most likely have already peaked, meaning he'll spend virtually the entire extension declining from his peak."

But here's the problem the Reds faced: Without Votto, they probably can't win. Yes, they could have kept him for two more years and then lost him to free agency; or they could have kept him for a year and then traded him for prospects. But if they want to win for the next five or six years, they need a player of Votto's stature.

Here's what I mean. I looked up all the players on playoff teams since 2009 with a season WAR of 5.0 or greater, per Baseball-Reference. I know some of you don't like WAR, but it works nicely for a quick study like this. Before I show you the complete list, the main point: Every playoff team had at least one player with a 5.0 WAR (and usually at least two). In theory, you can try to win with multiple three- and four-win players, but the reality is it doesn't seem to work. You need big stars. Even if you take on long-term risk.



Outside of Votto, who do the Reds have? Drew Stubbs had a 5.2 WAR season in 2010, largely due to a superbly rated defensive season. Jay Bruce is a nice player, but not really a guy who can carry the label of best player on a division winner. Maybe Mat Latos develops into a Cy Young contender, maybe Devin Mesoraco turns into an All-Star catcher. But those are wild cards; Votto is not a wild card. He's one of the best players in baseball.

By the way, Baseball-Reference grades 78 position-player seasons at 5.0 or higher since 2009, so 39 percent of those occurred on the 24 playoff teams. There were 42 pitcher-seasons of 5.0 or higher (38 percent on playoff teams). WAR measures a player's all-around game, thus you see a few defensive wonders like Stubbs or Chone Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez in 2009 accumulate a high WAR total. Few players are consistent five-win players almost solely because of their bat.

* * * *

One more note. In my earlier post on Votto, I mentioned the scarcity of top players who will be hitting the free-agent market in upcoming years. This is where I tie this back into the ESPN 500 list!

Here are the top 10 players in alphabetical order followed by the complete top 40 with their contract situations. For players who have a team option on their deal, I included the option year as the "signed through" season. For players who vest if they stay healthy, I listed both seasons. (Data from Cot's Baseball Contracts website.)

Ryan Braun: Signed through 2020
Miguel Cabrera: Signed through 2015
Robinson Cano: Signed through 2013
Roy Halladay: Signed through 2013 or 2014
Felix Hernandez: Signed through 2014
Clayton Kershaw: Eligible for free agency after 2014
Tim Lincecum: Signed through 2013
Albert Pujols: Signed through 2021
Troy Tulowitzki: Signed through 2021
Justin Verlander: Signed through 2014

11. CC Sabathia: Signed through 2016 or 2017
12. Mariano Rivera: Signed through 2012
13. Matt Kemp: Signed through 2019
14. Jose Bautista: Signed through 2016
15. Adrian Gonzalez: Signed through 2018
16. Evan Longoria: Signed through 2016
17. Prince Fielder: Signed through 2020
18. Cliff Lee: Signed through 2015 or 2016
19. Joey Votto: Reportedly to be signed through 2023
20. Cole Hamels: Eligible for free agency after 2012

21. Justin Upton: Signed through 2015
22. Dustin Pedroia: Signed through 2015
23. Jacoby Ellsbury: Eligible for free agency after 2013
24. Jered Weaver: Signed through 2016
25. Josh Hamilton: Eligible for free agency after 2012
26. Jose Reyes: Signed through 2018
27. David Price: Eligible for free agency after 2015
28. Curtis Granderson: Signed through 2013
29. Chris Carpenter: Signed through 2013
30. Josh Johnson: Signed through 2013

31. Jon Lester: Signed through 2014
32. Mark Teixeira: Signed through 2016
33. Hanley Ramirez: Signed through 2014
34. Brian McCann: Signed through 2013
35. Dan Haren: Signed through 2013
36. Adrian Beltre: Signed through 2016
37. Matt Holliday: Signed through 2017
38. Matt Cain: Signed through 2017 or 2018
39. Joe Mauer: Signed through 2018
40. Giancarlo Stanton: Eligible for free agency after 2016

As you can see, not a lot of manly free agents in the next few seasons. Those teams that love to throw around the cash may have limited options.

This is more good news for baseball: A small-market franchise apparently locking up one of the best players in the game.

Joey Votto was the 2010 NL MVP, he ranks eighth among position players over the past three seasons in WAR and he's one of the few hitters in the game who combines power, batting average and the ability to draw walks. Over those three seasons, the only hitters more valuable at the plate have been Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez.

Many believed it would be impossible for the Reds to sign Votto, thus the ridiculous trade rumors all offseason. The Reds owned an $80 million payroll in 2011, so there is risk in giving such a large chunk of your payroll to one player (ask the Twins), but losing Votto would be a devastating blow. Sometimes you have to take those risks.

We don't know the terms of Votto's potential deal yet, but there is a chance he may have left a few coins on the table to remain in Cincinnati. I don't necessarily buy that there wouldn't have been lucrative options for Votto after 2013. Yes, the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Tigers and Phillies are locked in at first base for years to come and that would certainly affected the demand for Votto's services. But consider the following teams that could have a hole at first base:

• Rangers: With the money given to Yu Darvish and decisions looming on which key members of their offense to extend -- Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young -- there is no guarantee the Rangers would be big bidders in two years. While Mitch Moreland probably isn't the long-term answer at first base, prospect Mike Olt may be since he's blocked by Adrian Beltre at third base.
• Blue Jays: With Jose Bautista signed to a team-friendly deal and a young base of talent, the Jays could conceivably afford Votto, an Ontario native who obviously would be hugely popular in Toronto. Plus, if they can ever get fans to return to SkyDome, the Jays are a sleeping big-market giant.
• Dodgers: New owners, a light-hitting first baseman in James Loney, a lefty power hitter to balance Matt Kemp ... it certainly would have been a perfect match.
• Astros: They've gutted the payroll as they start over, but this isn't a small-market team. Just one that acted like one under the old ownership.
• Cardinals: Their only players signed beyond 2013 are Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina and Jaime Garcia, so there could have been room in the budget.
• Cubs: They have prospect Anthony Rizzo, but Votto would be a viable big-money alternative.

The big picture here is that small- and medium-market franchises are locking up their star players: Just during spring training we've seen Votto (presumably), Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Andrew McCutchen and Matt Cain sign deals that take them past their initial free-agent years. Factor in that other stars like Kemp, Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander are signed through at least 2014 and there won't be a lot of A+ free agents hitting the market in upcoming seasons.

What does that mean? It makes it more difficult for the big-market franchises to have an offseason like the Yankees did before 2009, when they signed CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett. Instead, those franchises will be forced to develop more of their own talent, make trades involving their best prospects (for example, the Red Sox acquiring Gonzalez or the Phillies acquiring Hunter Pence) or overpaying for a good-but-not-great player like the Red Sox did with Carl Crawford. When those teams inevitably start aging, it may not be so easy just to spend big bucks to find a quality replacement. And that means that baseball's competitive balance should continue to improve -- and, maybe, that we'll see the decline of some of the recent dynasties.

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, two of 2011's top-five finishers in the NL MVP voting, switched leagues, making the 2012 race potentially wide open. Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp finished 1-2 in the 2011 voting, but Braun will have to show he can put up the same numbers without Fielder hitting behind him, and Kemp faces the same problem as 2011 -- his team isn't a good bet to make the playoffs. SweetSpot bloggers must like the Reds' chances of returning to the playoffs because they voted Joey Votto as the clear preseason favorite as he finished first or second on 25 of 39 ballots.

Points on a 14-9-8-7-6 basis.

Spring stats mean nothing! But they're fun to look at. A few highlights ... and lowlights (stats from major league games only):

• Some people haven't bought in on Paul Goldschmidt as they worry about the strikeouts, but one reason I do like him is he'll draw some walks to go with the power: He's hitting .265 with three homers, but with 12 walks (and 13 strikeouts).
• Josh Collmenter hasn't pitched well for Arizona: Five walks and just four strikeouts in 12 innings. He'll start in the rotation but you wonder how soon before we see Trevor Bauer.
• Braves prospect Julio Teheran has somehow allowed nine home runs in 13 innings.
• Jeff Samardzija earned a spot in the Cubs' rotation by showing good stuff but just as impressively has walked just one batter in 20 innings. This from a guy who averaged 5.1 walks per nine innings in relief in 2011.
• Not good news for the Cubs: First baseman Bryan LaHair has 16 strikeouts and one walk. Is the 29-year-old Triple-A vet pressing now that he's been given a chance to start after hitting .331 at Iowa? His SO/BB ratio at Triple-A was 111/60.
• Joey Votto is hitting .214 without a home run. I like how people will make a big deal when somebody does well ... but not a big deal when a star player doesn't do well. Again, spring stats ... for entertainment purposes only!
• Dexter Fowler has had a miserable spring for the Rockies, hitting .118 in 51 at-bats with 16 strikeouts.
• Clemens has pitched five scoreless innings for the Astros. Paul Clemens, that is.
• Matt Kemp says he wants to go 50-50. He's not going to do it swinging like this: 21 strikeouts and one walk. Ouch.
• Carlos Zambrano has 14 walks in 17.2 innings. But 18 strikeouts. So ... I think it's safe to say nobody knows what to expect from Big Z.
• Zack Greinke has perhaps been the most impressive pitcher this spring with a 28/2 strikeout/walk ratio and no home runs allowed. That's pretty tough to do in Arizona, where the ball flies.
• Sticking with the Brewers, Jonathan Lucroy is hitting .513 (20-for-39). This has nothing to do with that .513 average, but I like Lucroy as a breakout candidate.
• Jason Bay hasn't homered or driven in a run for the Mets and has petitioned to move in the spring training fences.
• Roy Halladay has allowed six home runs in 20 innings. He gave up 10 in 233.2 innings last season.
• Is this the year Pedro Alvarez breaks out? Umm ... well, with 20 K's and one walk I guess we can be positive and make a Matt Kemp comparison.
• One of my sleeper relievers of the year is Brad Brach of the Padres; he's looked good with a 14/2 K/BB ratio.
• What will the Giants do with Brandon Belt? He's hitting .407 with seven doubles and three homers in 59 at-bats.
• Adam Wainwright has a 1.45 ERA for the Cardinals but just nine strikeouts (and six walks) in 18.2 innings.
• Davey Johnson says he wants to bat Ian Desmond leadoff. He has 18 strikeouts and two walks while hitting .299.

Since the wild-card era began in 1995, there have been 34 MVPs -- 29 of them played on playoff teams, the exceptions being Albert Pujols in 2008, Ryan Howard in 2006, Barry Bonds in 2004 and 2001, Alex Rodriguez in 2003 and Larry Walker in 1997. Not including Justin Verlander, 31 of the 33 MVPs hit .300, the exceptions being Jimmy Rollins in 2007 (.296) and Rodriguez in 2003 (.298).

So that basically leaves two criteria for establishing MVP candidacy:

1. Play for a playoff team.
2. Hit .300.

Why didn't Matt Kemp win the NL MVP Award in 2011? The Dodgers didn't make the playoffs. Why didn't Curtis Granderson win the AL MVP Award? He didn't hit .300.

Those who contribute to ESPN's baseball coverage were just asked to make our 2012 predictions, including award winners. My first thought when it came to picking the NL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton. After hitting 34 home runs as a 21-year-old, he could explode. With Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez in front of him and a new potentially more hitter-friendly park, 40 to 45 home runs with 120-plus RBIs isn't out of the question.

Then I realized: Stanton probably isn't going to hit .300, not after hitting .262 a season ago. With 166 strikeouts, he would likely have to cut way down on the whiffs to come closer to .300. It could happen, but it isn't likely to happen in 2012. Plus, the Marlins aren't a lock for the postseason.

So who does that leave? Let's get back to our original theory.

Here's the list of NL position players who hit .300 each of the past two seasons: Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Starlin Castro. That's it. Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez hit over .300 in 2010, but were at .296 and .295, respectively, in 2011.

Now, that's not the entire list of MVP candidates, of course. You have Kemp and Justin Upton, both popular picks. Upton has the advantage on playing for a team more likely to make the playoffs. And while Upton hasn't hit .300 either of the past two seasons, he did hit .300 in 2009. Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are strong choices, but I'm not high on the Rockies' playoff chances. Ramirez was once an MVP candidate. Ryan Zimmerman hit .307 in 2010 and could be on a playoff contender.

But I think we clearly have three top choices: Votto, Braun and Upton. I'm not saying those are the three best players in the National League. I'm saying those are the three guys most likely to win the MVP Award. Votto and Braun are better candidates to hit .300, so that leaves Upton No. 3 on my list. So we have the last two NL MVP winners. Braun has the advantage that -- minus Prince Fielder -- if the Brewers do make the playoffs he'll get credit for "carrying the team" and "overcoming adversity." On the other hand, Votto will have to carry a lineup with two rookies and not a lot of support outside of Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips.

Most people seem to believe the Reds have a better chance of making the playoffs. If that's the case, the edge goes to Votto. So my preseason NL MVP ballot would go like this:

1. Joey Votto
2. Ryan Braun
3. Justin Upton
4. Matt Kemp
5. Troy Tulowitzki

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

The Texas Rangers signed pitcher Derek Holland to a five-year extension that includes club options for 2017 and 2018. Richard Durrett reports those options are for $11 and $11.5 million, salaries that will be a bargain if Holland stays healthy and pitches like he did over his final 15 starts of 2011, when he went 10-1 with a 2.77 ERA and held batters to a .230 average and .282 OBP.

This means the Rangers now have long-term commitments to Holland, Yu Darvish, Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus through at least 2015. Pitchers Neftali Feliz and Alexi Ogando are also secured through 2015 via service time and Matt Harrison through 2014. But the core of the offense will be heading to free agency over the next couple of seasons: Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli after 2012; Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz and Michael Young after 2013. Will the Rangers be able to afford all of them?

This is the price of success. The Rangers' Opening Day payroll in 2010 was about $55 million. Only Michael Young, Rich Harden, Vladimir Guerrero and Ian Kinsler were making at least $4 million, In 2011, the Opening Day payroll shot up to $92 million with seven $4 million players. In 2012, the Rangers will be at $120 million with 11 $4 million players.

Considering the salary increases given to Holland and Andrus plus the eventual arbitration increases Harrison, Felix and Ogando will receive, the Rangers are unlikely to keep all five of those hitters. In reality, they wouldn't want to sign all five. Consider their ages in their first seasons following free agency:

Mike Napoli: 31 in 2013
Josh Hamilton: 32 in 2013
Ian Kinsler: 32 in 2014
Nelson Cruz: 33 in 2014
Michael Young: 37 in 2014

Personally, I'd rank the priorities like this, factoring in age, production, health, position and salary:

1. Kinsler
2. Napoli
3. Hamilton
4. Cruz
5. Young

Young and Cruz will make a combined $26 million in 2013. You could punt on both and give some of that money to Kinsler or Hamilton. But there are also other future free agents to consider. The Rangers' top prospects are shortstop Jurickson Profar and third baseman Mike Olt (who may have to move to first base or left field with Beltre around). With much of the rotation locked up long-term, that would turn the Rangers' free-agent focus to outfield and first base. The best players at those positions hitting free agency after the 2012 and 2013 seasons:

2013 -- Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton
2014 -- Joey Votto, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones, Hunter Pence, Alex Gordon, Shin-Soo Choo

This is why I'd be wary about signing Hamilton to a long-term deal. Do you want to sign him to a five-year deal that carries from ages 32 to 36? Or would you be better off pursuing a younger center fielder like Bourn or Upton, good players who wouldn't cost nearly as much? Or should you roll the dice on going after Votto for 2014?

One thing to keep in mind: The Rangers haven't tapped out their revenue streams yet. Their TV deal with Fox Sports Southwest doesn't kick until their current contract expires after the 2014 season and will be worth a reported $80 million a year, revenue that would place them only behind the Yankees and Red Sox. Also, the Rangers still have room for attendance growth. They drew a club record 2,946,949 fans in 2011 -- but that ranked just 10th in the majors. The Yankees and Phillies both drew over 3.6 million. Imagine what another 500,000 fans per season would mean to the club's bottom line.

Who knows, by 2014 the Rangers may be able to afford Kinsler and Hamilton ... with a little Joey Votto on the side.

Follow David Schoenfield on Twitter @dschoenfield.

As we learned in 2011, baseball teams can survive the loss of even a superstar player. When Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who had finished second and third in the Cy Young voting the previous two seasons, went down in spring training with season-ending Tommy John surgery, many wrote off the Cardinals. "Wainwright injury deals crippling blow to Cardinals' chances," blared the headline of one major online publication.

We all know what happened.

That said, some players would seem to be more vital than others. I asked the question, "Who is the most important player in 2012?" on Twitter on Tuesday and received a wide range of answers. I'll list my top five followed by some reader responses. My one rule: I think the team involved has to be a legit contender. Joe Mauer and Felix Hernandez are obviously important to their teams, but the Twins and Mariners are unlikely contenders even if those guys deliver monster seasons.

1. Josh Johnson, Miami Marlins

The Marlins are probably borderline contenders even if everything breaks well -- I projected them to win 86 games -- making it imperative Johnson stays healthy after making just nine starts in 2011. The 2010 NL ERA leader, Johnson's health is even more vital since the Marlins would appear to lack rotation depth past their top five.

2. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

The Reds lineup will feature two rookies, inconsistent Drew Stubbs, injury-prone Scott Rolen and mediocre production at best from left field, making it imperative the 2010 NL MVP stay on the field. He did that last year, missing just one game.

3. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox could survive the loss of one of their big hitters, but if Beckett struggles like he did in 2010 (21 starts, 5.78 ERA), the rotation will likely be exposed.

4. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies

Considering his position and skill-set, perhaps the most irreplaceable player in baseball today.

5. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

As the Phillies continue to get older and score fewer runs, the pressure on the Big Three increases. You don't replace the best pitcher in the game.

From the readers:

Jordan Walden. The angels have the rotation, but will walden be able to close games, because no one behind him looks promising -- @matte1727

Josh Beckett decides whether Boston is title contender or third place in East. --@TheFanManifesto

Jason Heyward. --@jasonwright

Kendrys Morales! If he comes back & b the hitter he was be4 the ankle injury then #Angels offense will b balance & powerful. --@LAngelsteelers

Ryan Braun! He will be mentally and emotionally tested in every ballpark that he plays in --@jcbritt13

I gotta say Verlander ( and I hate Detroit) that team is in big trouble without him --@Poptart_Larson

'most important' an interesting concept. Wright perhaps. Other teams may cope without their superstar(s), but The Mets... --@samjturner

Michael Pineda. A whole lot of organizational strategy, let alone a post season berth, hinges on his success --@MagicRatSF

Has to be Josh Johnson...so many expectations, but without a big JJ year, team could finish 4th --@m_techner

thinking Fielder...epic fail for Tigers if they don't make playoffs --@ChadMacNeil

@2Charms

@dschoenfield gosh, so many. Darvish needs to work for TEX, Pujols for LAA, Lawrie & Bautista for TOR, Fielder for DET, Adrian for BOS, etc

Evan Longoria plays like a top 10 fantasy player and I can see the Rays winning the division. --@KCs_Corner

daniel bard. red sox need him to be a decent 4th starter/3rd if bucholtz cant go all year. --@Conley76

Troy Tulowitzki. Five tool player at the most premium of positions. --@FSportsSchiel

Johan Santana. With him back to form, Mets could be alright. If not, they will probably be a joke. --@Doug_Gausepohl

Wainwright's return to form (or not) will go long way in deciding tight NLC --@rausdenmoore

Buster posey --@nimyaj

Alex Gordon had a breakout season in 2011, the kind that had been expected of him since his recall from the minor leagues. He starred for the Kansas City Royals both at bat (.303 BA, 23 HR, 87 RBIs) and in the field (winning a Gold Glove, largely because of his 20 outfield assists).

The biggest jump Gordon made was his performance against left-handed pitching. Gordon entered 2011 as a .215 career hitter against southpaws, but hit a solid .278 with 19 extra-base hits, including eight home runs.

One of Gordon’s primary weaknesses in dealing with lefties was how he handled soft stuff (curves, sliders, changeups) away. He eliminated that as an issue in 2011 in a big way.

Gordon was able to nearly double the rate at which he made contact on swings against those pitches, and the results increased exponentially, as noted in the chart on the right.

There aren’t many left-handed hitters who can hit that type of pitch from a left-handed pitcher. Gordon’s new AL Central-mate, Prince Fielder, struggles with it. So did Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Curtis Granderson last season, among others.

Eliminating that issue added a significant number of hits to Gordon’s ledger and made him a much more viable threat at the plate.

But is that sort of success sustainable? Gordon’s batting average of balls on play against lefties took a big jump, even though his rate of hitting the ball hard didn’t.

You tell us if you think Gordon is legit. Share your thoughts in the comments section.

In January, I wrote a piece on the five best players in baseball, looking at each five-year span since 1969-1973. The most recent five-year span ranked as Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Holliday. Considering Pujols is coming off the worst season of his career and just turned 32, and Utley and Mauer suffered through injuries, the title of "best player in baseball" seems more wide open than it has been in decades.

With that in mind, I asked Twitter followers to name their best player in baseball. Here are the results of the first 100 responses:

Troy Tulowitzki: 19 votes
Albert Pujols: 18 votes
Jose Bautista: 13 votes
Matt Kemp: 11.5 votes
Miguel Cabrera: 9 votes
Evan Longoria: 7 votes
Joey Votto: 7 votes
Justin Verlander: 6 votes
Roy Halladay: 4 votes
Robinson Cano: 3 votes
Ryan Braun: 1 vote
Jacoby Ellsbury: 1 vote
Justin Upton: 0.5 vote

The fact that 13 different players received votes and none received even 20 percent shows the lack of consensus on the topic. Rockies shortstop Tulowitzki edged out Pujols in the voting, although that may be have been influenced by the fact that I posted the question around 9 p.m. ET.

Anyway, here were some responses:

still Pujols, but closest it's been in a while. --@sahadevsharma

Verlander. Most dominant pitcher in pitcher heavy time. --@zcrizer

Best is Troy Tulowitzki. Key infield position at SS. Leader. Silver Slugger. Gold Glove. --@Stars5Steve

Tulo. Premier player at a premium position. --@cmiller0

Considering Albert is only a year removed from a 7.5 WAR and .420 wOBA, I'll side with him. Too close to call though. --@LWM_sucks

jose bautista easily --@TdotsFinest11

Miguel Cabrera without a doubt, so consistent you can't deny it, gives you the whole package. --@GadyBlitz

Ryan Braun. Even without the roids. --@oneandonlyburke